Transocean Ltd (RIG) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q4 調整後 EBITDA 為 3.85 億美元,全年達 13.7 億美元,年增近 20%;自由現金流 Q4 為 3.21 億美元,全年 6.26 億美元,均顯著提升
    • 2026 年指引:預期部分鑽井平台(KG2、Deepwater Proteus、Deepwater Skyros)有閒置時間,活動水準略低於 2025,但自由現金流預計與 2025 年持平或更好
    • 市場反應正面,Valaris 併購案獲投資人與客戶高度肯定,盤後反應積極
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • Valaris 併購案帶來近 110 億美元合併在手訂單,預期 24 個月內槓桿降至 1.5 倍
      • 持續優化成本結構,2025 年已減少 1 億美元成本,2026 年預計再降 1.5 億美元
      • 全球深水鑽井需求強勁,2027 年前深水鑽井利用率預期超過 90%
      • 多區域(非洲、地中海、東南亞、印度等)長約標案釋出,能見度提升
    • 風險:
      • 部分鑽井平台短期閒置,若未能及時取得新約,將影響營收表現
      • Petrobras 合約延展(blend and extend)談判進度具不確定性,雖已納入指引但仍有變數
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 調整後 EBITDA:Q4 3.85 億美元,全年 13.7 億美元,年增近 20%
    • 自由現金流:Q4 3.21 億美元,全年 6.26 億美元,顯著提升
    • 合併後在手訂單(backlog):近 110 億美元
    • 鑽井平台運作正常率(uptime):接近 98%,創新高
    • Q4 合約鑽井收入:10.4 億美元,日均收入約 46.1 萬美元,與前幾季持平
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年營收指引區間略低於 2025 年,主因部分平台閒置
    • 2026 年預期自由現金流與 2025 年持平或更好,持續降低利息支出
    • 2026 年資本支出(CapEx)Q4 為 2800 萬美元,全年預計維持低檔
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Valaris 併購後,對租賃策略與規模經濟有何影響?
      A: 併購有助於進一步優化成本結構、提升服務效率與可靠性,並強化產業韌性,讓公司能更穩健度過產業週期。
    • Q: 如何看待進入 jack-up 市場,與 NOC 客戶互動有何調整?
      A: 公司過去有 jack-up 經驗,Valaris 團隊在該領域表現優異,將學習其營運經驗,提升效率與現金流。
    • Q: 對 2026-2027 年深水鑽井市場需求轉強的信心來源?
      A: 來自客戶對話、標案數據與油公司公開言論,標案數量與年期明顯增加,儲量補充壓力推動投資,預期 2026 年底至 2027 年初利用率超過 90%。
    • Q: Petrobras blend and extend 談判進度及對指引的影響?
      A: 指引已反映目前談判進度,若有進一步發展將再更新,預期不會有顯著額外上行空間。
    • Q: 對於閒置鑽井平台(如 KG2、Proteus、Skyros、Asgard)未來工作機會的看法?
      A: 指引已納入部分閒置假設,若能取得新約將推升指引至高區間,公司有信心這些高規格平台能找到新工作。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

  • Please stand by. Your meeting is about to begin. Hello, and welcome, everyone, joining today's Q4 2025 Transocean earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the meeting over to David Keddington, Vice President, Treasurer. Please go ahead.

  • David Keddington - Vice President, Treasurer

  • Thank you, Nickie, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Transocean's fourth quarter earnings call. Leading today's call will be Transocean President and CEO, Keelan Adamson. Keelan will be joined by other members of Transocean's executive management team, Chief Financial Officer, Thad Vayda; and Chief Commercial Officer, Roddie Mackenzie. In addition to the comments that will be shared on today's call, we'd like to direct you to our earnings release and fleet status report filed yesterday that contain additional information, all of which is available on Transocean's website, www.deepwater.com.

  • Following our prepared comments, we will open the conference line for questions. Please limit your inquiries to one question and one follow-up as this will allow us to hear from more participants. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that today's call will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. With that, I'll hand the call over to Transocean's CEO, Keelan Adamson.

  • Keelan Adamson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, David, and welcome, everyone, to our fourth quarter and year-end 2025 conference call. We appreciate your interest in Transocean. I will cover several topics today. First, I'll recap our key accomplishments over the last year. Next, I'll cover our 2026 priorities.

  • Third, I'll quickly recap the highlights of our recently announced definitive agreement to acquire Valaris and why we are excited about this transformational combination.

  • And lastly, I'll close out with some market updates from around the world. Let's get started. 2025 was an important year for Transocean. The company executed very well, both operationally and financially.

  • Yesterday, we reported our fourth quarter results, including solid adjusted EBITDA of $385 million and free cash flow of $321 million. Year-on-year, our results improved significantly with adjusted EBITDA of $1.37 billion, up nearly 20% and a significant increase in free cash flow to $626 million.

  • During the year, we materially strengthened the balance sheet, retiring about $1.3 billion in debt. We executed two key capital market transactions to delever and improve both our liquidity and the timing of our debt maturities.

  • These actions and the additional debt payments made in 2025 reduced our annual interest expense by nearly $90 million, enhanced our financial flexibility and increased the value of our equity currency, ultimately enabling the recently announced transaction with Valaris.

  • We sustainably improved our cost structure by removing about $100 million in costs and are on track to decrease our costs by an additional $150 million in 2026. We took the difficult but necessary steps to rationalize shore-based support around the world, reduce G&A costs and restructure the organization to drive efficiencies without adversely impacting our operational performance.

  • Today, we are leaner, more efficient and more profitable. The operational performance of our rigs and more importantly, our people were superb. Once again, we demonstrated why Transocean is an industry leader.

  • We achieved record uptime performance just shy of 98%. We had zero operational integrity events and zero lost time incidents across our entire fleet.

  • Our process and occupational safety performance was exceptional. We completed five major planned out-of-service projects on time and on budget, and we continued to rightsize and high-grade the technical capability of our fleet. We recycled six rigs in 2025 with one more completed earlier this year.

  • We entered 2026, Transocean's 100th anniversary year, with strong momentum across the business. Now let's review Transocean's key objectives.

  • Our first priority is to optimize the value of our differentiated assets. Transocean through our people and fleet has unparalleled capabilities. We strive every day to deliver best-in-class performance with the most experienced and proven team of professionals, maximizing the capabilities of our high-specification fleet.

  • We have an exceptionally capable drillship fleet and a high-spec fleet of semisubmersibles capable of executing in the harshest environment.

  • As the technology leader in the offshore rig business, we continually innovate to improve the safety, reliability and efficiency of our operations. Second, we are focused on generating industry-leading free cash flow. We have roughly $6 billion in backlog that will efficiently convert into cash, the key measure of value in our business. The more we generate, the faster we can reduce our leverage, which will materially benefit our shareholders.

  • And third, as we continue to reduce our total debt, we will establish a stronger, more simplified capital structure that provides financial resilience and the ability to weather the cycles of this business. Moving now to our recently announced definitive agreement to acquire Valaris. We are incredibly excited about the capabilities of our combined business.

  • As we head into what we anticipate will be a very constructive period for the offshore drilling business, we believe that this transaction is well timed, and know it is perfectly aligned with all of our strategic priorities. It positions us to be a leader combining the best fleet with the best team, working diligently every day to provide our customers with the best, most disciplined execution in the industry.

  • Our geographic footprint and customer base will expand. Wherever our customers go offshore to find and develop reserves, we will be able to provide a rig solution to fit their requirements from a broader high-quality asset base.

  • We've identified more than $200 million in cost synergies on top of our ongoing cost reduction initiatives. Our pro forma combined backlog of nearly $11 billion and cash flow-generating capability are expected to accelerate debt reduction, resulting in leverage of around 1.5times within 24 months of closing.

  • We strongly believe that this combination will enhance returns for shareholders and create an exceptional opportunity for investors desiring exposure to the offshore rig business.

  • We expect to close the transaction in the second half of 2026, and we look forward to sharing more information on our progress in the coming months. I'll now provide a brief market update. While we had seen some near-term moderation in tendering activity, the underlying outlook for deepwater offshore drilling is strengthening.

  • In fact, tendering activity is growing with opportunities developing in most major basins. In this market environment, we expect deepwater utilization to move meaningfully higher and to greater than 90% through 2027, setting the stage for an increasingly constructive business environment.

  • Looking regionally, in the US Gulf, long-term demand remains robust, driven by the Paleogene plays and the new lease awards with improved fiscal terms. Any apparent short-term softness will likely result in preferred assets, repositioning to other increasingly active markets elsewhere.

  • In Brazil, we expect rig activity to remain stable. Any reduction in Petrobras' projected fleet count will be small and temporary, offset by increased demand from international operators.

  • We anticipate that Petrobras will conclude its blend and extend renegotiations by the end of the quarter, which will add multiple years of backlog. Africa continues to exhibit considerable growth potential. We expect the region's rig count to increase from roughly 15 today to at least 20 over the next year or two.

  • In Mozambique, we anticipate three multiyear program awards from each of Eni, Exxon and Total, all scheduled to start in 2027 and 2028. In Nigeria, Shell has already awarded its two year program with additional awards expected shortly from Exxon and Chevron.

  • In addition, Total is preparing to tender this quarter. Collectively, this implies four rig lines from 2027 onwards. In Angola, activity remains solid, supported by anticipated and announced extensions for rigs currently operating with Azule, Total and Exxon.

  • We also understand Shell will reenter the basin for a material exploration program in 2027. In Namibia, we are now seeing the first results from recent exploration success with Total launching a major tender for the Venus development, two rigs, three years each, beginning in early 2028.

  • We also expect further development activity as operators assess their recent discoveries for commercial viability. And in the Ivory Coast, we understand Eni is preparing to issue a one rig tender for three years of work beginning in early 2027.

  • In the Mediterranean, activity has returned to pre-Covid levels, driven by strong regional gas demand in Egypt, Israel and Cyprus. Rig count is expected to increase to around eight units. In Israel, we expect two rig fixtures to support the recently sanctioned Chevron and Energy in developments.

  • In Egypt, Shell and BP will add new programs starting this year and in Cyprus, Eni's Cronos development is expected to begin drilling in early 2027. Moving now to Southeast Asia and primarily Indonesia, we anticipate incremental demand of three to four rigs between Eni, Harbour Energy, Mubadala and INPEX.

  • In India, momentum is building with the government's objective to drill 50 deepwater wells per year going forward.

  • In addition to the recently awarded one incremental fixture in the region, ONGC have just issued a new tender for three drillships and two semisubmersibles with contract durations of four years each beginning in the first half of 2027. In Australia, the Deepwater Skyros will commence a minimum one year development program in early 2027.

  • We see stable activity from all our semisubmersible customers with programs currently out for tender by Woodside, Santos and INPEX. In Norway, utilization of the high-specification harsh environment semisubmersible fleet, will remain robust through 2028, supported by recent awards from Equinor and Aker BP.

  • Other operators are also seeking high-spec harsh environment units for 2027 starts which is expected to drive utilization of these units to nearly 100%. In closing, tendering activity is increasing. Multiyear opportunities are now in the market and visibility into 2027 and beyond continues to improve.

  • As operators move ahead with new developments and meaningful exploration programs, we are well positioned to capitalize on improving demand. I'll now hand the call over to Thad for some brief comments on the quarter and our guidance. Thad?

  • R. Thaddeus Vayda - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Keelan, and good day to everyone. Our performance during the fourth quarter and for the full year 2026 was very much in line with our expectations and the guidance ranges that we provided to you in November.

  • In the fourth quarter, we generated contract drilling revenues of $1.04 billion at an average daily revenue of approximately $461,000, which is generally consistent with the average daily revenue achieved in the last several quarters.

  • Operating and maintenance expense and G&A expense was $605 million and $50 million, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA was $385 million, implying a very healthy margin of 37% and cash flow from operations was approximately $349 million, a sequential increase of 42%.

  • Free cash flow of $321 million reflects $349 million of operating cash flow, net of $28 million of capital expenditures. Our free cash flow margin was notable at 31%. I highlight that this is the best quarterly free cash flow we have generated in several years and is a direct result of excellent operational performance, execution on our cost savings initiatives, lower cash interest expense and effective management of our working capital.

  • We ended the fourth quarter with total liquidity of approximately $1.5 billion. This includes unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of $620 million, about $377 million of restricted cash and $510 million of capacity from our undrawn credit facility.

  • In addition to now issuing our Fleet Status Report concurrently with our quarterly results, we have slightly changed the presentation and content of the press release. Going forward, in addition to some format and tabular modifications, the release will include our guidance ranges.

  • This report provides guidance for the first quarter and full year 2026 for Transocean on a stand-alone basis as will be the case until the Valaris transaction closes expected later this year.

  • The guidance ranges provided include the effects of our cost reduction initiatives and reflect slightly lower levels of activity versus 2025, specifically assuming some idle time on several rigs, including the KG2, the Deepwater Proteus and the Deepwater Skyros.

  • I note that the potential to achieve the upper regions of the revenue guidance range relates mostly to these rigs being extended beyond their contract end dates or commencing new contracts earlier than anticipated.

  • Even with the assumed idle time on these rigs, we expect free cash flow to be in line with or better than that achieved in 2025 as we continue to reduce cost and interest expense and make additional improvements in the management of our working capital.

  • We also intend to continue to utilize our free cash flow to opportunistically reduce debt in excess of our remaining 2026 scheduled obligations of approximately $380 million, which includes capital lease payments. This reflects about $130 million in payments we have already made in 2026.

  • Additionally, our stronger credit profile and improved cash flow generation may enable us to refinance some debt instruments at lower interest rates. Finally, we expect to end 2026 with liquidity of between $1.6 billion and $1.7 billion, which excludes the effect of any incremental opportunistic deleveraging.

  • This concludes my prepared remarks. Operator, we're ready to take questions.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Greg Lewis, BTIG.

  • Gregory Lewis - Analyst

  • Yes, hi, thank you and good morning. Keelan, I guess at this point, the market has definitely had some time to digest the acquisition of Valaris and congrats on that again. And while it was definitely transformational to the balance sheet, Transocean was already the second largest owner of high-spec ultra-deepwater rigs prior to acquiring Valaris. I guess I'd be curious, post the acquisition, does this change the chartering strategy at all? And really, what advantages could the company benefit from just simply from these new potential economies of scale?

  • Keelan Adamson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, Greg, thanks for the question. As we think about consolidation and what it means for our industry and the upstream industry in general, and our customers have been consolidating, as you know, over the last few years, is really driven around driving efficiencies into our business.

  • It's about taking cost out of the chain and looking to provide a better service to our customers and to the consumer. So from our perspective, this combination allows us to address the necessary cost across the combination. It allows us to ensure that our overlap of cost structure is minimized.

  • We drive efficiencies into that structure. But more importantly, we're starting to look at how do we improve our service provision as a combination across the world and to all of our customers. And ultimately, when I talk to our customers, they always are focused on project execution.

  • In a capital disciplined world where they only have a certain amount of CapEx to spend across their opportunities, they want to ensure they're working with partners that can deliver in a reliable and predictable fashion.

  • We're very proud of our operation on the deepwater fleet that we own right now and we have strived to ensure that we can deliver that level of performance no matter where we're working for whoever around the world.

  • And I see this is a huge opportunity for us to combine two excellent operating companies and continue to deliver that sort of level of service, improve our reliability and improve our predictability to our customers that ensures that their projects are delivered on time, on or better than budget, and ultimately reducing the cost of these projects around the world.

  • It will enable more work in the future, and it will obviously help the consumer at the end of the day. So I think the other aspect of this transaction that helps is the drilling industry has gone through, as you know, a pretty rough time over the last 10 to 15 years. Many companies have had to restructure. We've been carrying a lot of debt through the down cycle.

  • And it doesn't help the industry where companies do not have a sustainable business structure. And I think for the benefit of the upstream as a whole and the benefit for our customers having drilling contractors that are sustainable, robust, can be resilient against the inevitable cycles in this business, I think, is a huge plus, and I think this combination delivers against those.

  • Gregory Lewis - Analyst

  • Okay. Super helpful. And then just -- I did want to talk a little bit about kind of how you're thinking about the jack-up market. It's definitely on a lot of investors' minds. It is -- I mean drilling is drilling, but if you think about the jack-up market, it's more of an NOC heavy market where Petrobras and Equinor side that the deepwater market is more of an IOC market.

  • Just kind of curious how we're thinking about how does that change? Does management have to change a little bit of its view or it's kind of structure in dealing with these NOCs in the Middle East and Asia versus the traditional opportunities that you're seeing with IOCs?

  • Keelan Adamson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Greg, another great question. The -- we have been a jackup player in our history, right? We understand the highly competitive nature of that arena. And as we enter back into the jackup business post close, we're looking forward to embracing the lessons we've learned over time as an operator ourselves. And of course, Valaris has done a great job with running their jackup fleet in the competitive environment with NOCs and international operators around the world.

  • Clearly, it is a business that needs to be run very efficiently to generate good cash from that business. And it's important that companies who run those businesses understand the subtleties of how to manage that cost structure and ensure that they can get the efficiencies and the performance from that jack-up market. So it's not strange to us. We certainly learned from the past and I see a great opportunity for us to learn from the Valaris team that runs that jackup fleet to continue to deliver exceptional performance and incremental cash to the combined entity going forward.

  • Gregory Lewis - Analyst

  • Super helpful thank you very much.

  • Keelan Adamson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Greg.

  • Operator

  • Eddie Kim, Barclays.

  • Edward Kim - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. So this group as a whole often gets a bad rap because the offshore inflection always seems to be about 12 months -- 18 months away. You and your peers have been consistently saying for several quarters now that this inflection will happen in late '26 and into 2027. We don't necessarily disagree with that. But just curious what gives you the confidence that this is going to happen on time this time around? And outside of some sort of oil price collapse, do you see much risk of this getting pushed out?

  • Keelan Adamson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, morning, Eddie, no, I think it really stems from two-fold. It stems from our conversations that we have all the time with our customers, and it also stems from the data that comes through from the number of tenders that release, the number of prospects that are going through their field development programs.

  • And some of the public commentary from the oil and gas company executives that are starting to talk a little bit about reserve replacement, declining production and the need to build exploration budgets to ensure that they are able to do that.

  • So we triangulate around lots of pieces of information, some subjective, some very objective. And that is all triangulating now to, I think what we've said all along is that we felt like end of 2026 and early 2027, we were certainly going to bridge into over 90% utilization across our drillship fleet and that's continuing to play out.

  • And there's been some recent news that I highlighted in my commentary that was kind of hidden from view at that point in time. Roddie, do you want to add anything to that?

  • Roddie Mackenzi - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, for sure. So just to pick up what gives us the confidence. So as we look at last year, the number of rigs that were awarded just progressively got better and better quarter-over-quarter.

  • We went from like 12 rig years to 14 to 18 and then 22 rig years in the fourth quarter, which was actually disappointing for us because we were expecting probably double that to be awarded. There were several big awards that slipped into '26.

  • But you will see that from not only our sales, but a lot of our competitors have booked multiyear programs. So we see a lot of multiyear programs, whereas we only saw a few last year.

  • We see a lot more now. We're actually tracking, I think, it's 32 open tenders that are expected to be awarded over the next few months. So those open tenders, the average length is well beyond a year.

  • So there's just a lot of work being awarded now. I think you saw that period in '25 where a lot of the customers were basically kind of protecting their own balance sheets and not putting on excessive amount of commitment.

  • But as we work through that capital discipline, what we're seeing now is a transition now clearly towards time to develop a lot of these assets that they discovered over the last couple of years and a marked increase in exploration budget because the pressure is now on to find replacement reserves.

  • So we're very confident in terms of the number of awards that have been made. So I would say that's not a forward projection that data that's in the market already.

  • We're definitely through the trough of contracting. And now we're kind of on the other side of things begin to really pick up. So again, just lots of opportunities and they're all much longer in term than they were before.

  • Edward Kim - Analyst

  • Got it. That's very helpful color and great to hear. Just wanted to ask about the Petrobras blend and extend. Those negotiations have taken a little bit longer than we had anticipated. But you said you expect those to conclude by the end of the quarter.

  • Just curious if your full year guidance already bakes in some potential earnings risk related to those blend and extend? Or if the results of those negotiations should be seen as an incremental impact to the guidance you've laid out?

  • Keelan Adamson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So thanks for the question. The guidance that we provide is representative of our best guess based upon the conversations that we've had. So I wouldn't consider it to be significant incremental upside with respect to the blend and extends.

  • Edward Kim - Analyst

  • Got it. Got it, understood. Great. Thanks for the color. I turn it back.

  • Operator

  • Fredrik Stene with Clarksons Securities.

  • Fredrik Stene - Analyst

  • Thank you Martin. I wanted to touch a bit on, I guess, fleet placement in general. I think the way I interpreted your commentary was that the US might -- is robust long term, might face some softness in the near term, but then you have good activity levels in West Africa, for example.

  • I think the ONGC tender which came out yesterday kind of in the new format was incremental to what most of us have expected if you -- at least a couple of months back. So just wondering, do you have any color on how you see your fleet positioned, let's say, a year out in time?

  • Do you expect many rigs to move regions? Or do you think some of that will be sold by the acquisition of Valaris just thinking about you having rigs available to actually compete in most of these long-term tenders? Thank you.

  • Keelan Adamson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, good morning, Frederick, and thanks for the question. Yes, Fredrik, thanks for the question. Yes, look, I think what we definitely see is opportunities developing as we've discussed in the Africa and Asia regions. We operate, as you know, in a global worldwide market that's highly competitive.

  • We are able to move our units anywhere around the world that meets that demand. I would say, because we have a very high-spec fleet, our customers are always going to want all else being equal, the higher spec rig that they can find.

  • As we experience the Gulf has been a strong demand. It will continue to be a strong demand, if there's any near-term softness in that area, we will move those rigs to the other opportunities that exist around the world. Brazil continues to be a high utilization area for drillships. And the Med has been -- it's great to see the Med back. It's great to see a lot of activity building in the Mediterranean.

  • Obviously, the gas and energy security conversation is playing a role there. But yes, that's the way we see the movement. And I'll just pass it over to Roddie, he'll have a couple more comments to add.

  • Roddie Mackenzi - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. Exactly right, Keelan. And great that you noted the ONGC tender that came out. I mean, that's 20 to 25 rig years in one go that was on nobody's radar. So I think that stuff is extremely interesting.

  • The stuff that's coming out of Mozambique, very interesting, the stuff that's coming out of Indonesia, very interesting. And of course, we're engaged in discussions that we're not at liberty to divulge, but there's plenty of other activity going on. And as Keelan pointed out, for these hot rigs that are doing a great job performance-wise, the customers are very interested. I just think there's no shortage of opportunities. And if there is any near-term softness in the Gulf of Mexico, I mean, at the moment, we're fully utilized.

  • But if that does transpire, then don't think there's any problems in moving those rigs on to other programs. There's certainly enough work around the world for the rigs over the next couple of years. It's just a question of timing and when we move things. But yes, we're super pumped about the opportunities that have just recently been announced that nobody has gotten their model. So I think that's really going to push utilization up.

  • Fredrik Stene - Analyst

  • Yes, I agree. I think that fooled us, or we're going to see probably does something with everybody's mindset about how tight this market can become. Just one follow-up which relates to one of the US Gulf rigs. I think you mentioned that the guidance included some idle time on KG2, Proteus and Skyros.

  • But the Asgard that's sort of running off in June this year. Should I -- by adding these 2 things together, assume that Asgard might have some new work coming up for it shortly?

  • Roddie Mackenzi - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. I don't really have anything I can comment on at this time. But if anything does happen, of course, we'll announce it in due course.

  • Fredrik Stene - Analyst

  • Thank you so much. Have a good day.

  • Keelan Adamson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks.

  • Operator

  • Doug Becker, Capital One.

  • Doug Becker - Analyst

  • Investors are always voting with their pocket books and it looks like they like the Valaris acquisition. Just curious on the early response from customers.

  • Keelan Adamson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Doug, thanks for the question. The feedback I've had from our customers, and I know speaking with my counterpart Anton at Valaris, has been overwhelmingly positive. They understand the situation in the market. They understand the need to drive costs out of the business.

  • They understand that the opportunity, as they've had to look at consolidation from their business perspective. They understand that it shouldn't -- it doesn't surprise them consolidation would happen in the drilling contractor offshore business as well. And I think they're very supportive of the potential of the combination. They're very supportive of both companies' operations. There are things to learn from each of us, and we'll look to grab those and where we can improve our service to our customers around the world and on a bigger scale basis, we will be doing that.

  • And so overwhelmingly positive comments directly from the customers that we deal with on an operational basis, I'd be very pleased with that. And they can see where the synergies of these companies will come to benefit them and their project delivery.

  • Doug Becker - Analyst

  • No, that's very encouraging. Also wanted to circle back on the blend and extend negotiations with Petrobras. Just trying to think through what would you consider a win-win situation for Petrobras where maybe they get some rate relief in the near term, but to make it a successful negotiation for Transocean as well?

  • Roddie Mackenzi - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • I'll take that one. Yes. So Petrobras is all about basically cost reductions and optimization. So the concept is not just about day rates and what have you, but also a lot around terms and conditions and doing things in the contracts that kind of, for want of a better word, reduce mutual waste. So we're feeling pretty good about that in terms of the opportunity to be more efficient with revenue.

  • So we'll get a couple of points up on revenue efficiency, that kind of stuff. But also, this is kind of like the workhorse of the fleet, right? So you've got the sixth gen rigs down there that provide great service. They do a fantastic job. And we love the idea about putting significant extensions on those because we are talking about quite a lot of rig years.

  • So that's kind of checks everybody's boxes. If we can be a bit more efficient cost-wise for them and at the same time, extend our kind of core sixth-gen fleet and keep them busy for the foreseeable future, that's a real win. So we're excited about that. We hope that does come to fruition. And as we say, we'll definitely update when we have definitive developments there.

  • Keelan Adamson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And maybe one add on that. I think every drilling contractor understands that continuity is really important for delivering performance over time and Petrobras are -- they have the ability to scale their operations to drive those efficiencies, and they understand the value of continuity with their fleet as well. And so from our perspective, it addresses utilization for our sixth gen and low seven-gen fleet. It allows us to work with our customer to drive their cost down and to improve our Ts and Cs and reclaim some of that benefit to the company in that way. And we're able then to provide a service for longer on a high continuity basis, which can only be good for our cash flow generation.

  • Doug Becker - Analyst

  • That makes sense. Thank you.

  • Keelan Adamson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Keith Beckmann, Pickering Energy Partners.

  • Keith Beckmann - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for taking my question. I had a question around, in a market that's much further along and everything is more positive, capacity is a little bit tighter. Do you have any feel on which of your three seventh-gen rigs could potentially come back to market first? And does that change at all with Valaris' three seven gen stacked rigs as well?

  • Keelan Adamson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, it's -- look, we're going to be really excited when the utilization gets to that point. But right now, obviously, we've got an active fleet that needs to roll over. We're very encouraged by the market signs that are there right now to continue to find opportunities for the active fleet. We're very happy with the three 7th gen units that we've kept on the sideline and the Valaris units, obviously are high spec as well. So we take the same standpoint.

  • We will not bring one of these units back speculatively and the market would need to be in a position where we could recover the investment of those reactivations inside that contract. We believe that the longer-term outlook is very strong and the opportunities will present themselves, but we don't see that in the very near term.

  • Keith Beckmann - Analyst

  • Awesome. That's helpful. And then my second question kind of comes back around to the Gulf market again in the back half of the year. Whenever I look at kind of what's in the fleet and could potentially be rolling off. I look at the Conquer, Proteus and Asgard, late this year, potentially needing some work.

  • I just wanted to know if all of those were to win work, I'm assuming there's a little bit of upside to your guidance. Just wanted to get a feel for what's baked into '26 guidance in regard to those 3 rigs?

  • Roddie Mackenzi - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. So we called out the three rigs that we think it makes sense to assume some idle time with upside associated with those under the conditions that I suggested. The other assets that you mentioned, I think, are all probably go back to work. It's sort of what we have thought about. So there is some probability-weighted assumption in the guidance range, but it would definitely move it towards the higher end.

  • Keelan Adamson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And maybe just some color around those rigs. Obviously, as you know, there are high-spec drillships in the world. There are opportunities for these rigs to pick up additional work. We're fairly confident that the market will develop nicely for those units to grab some utilization. I think it's important to remember that we want to keep these rigs working.

  • We want to keep our utilization up and at the same time, we understand the value of those assets. So we'll be looking to fill it with short-term work, recognizing that the longer term is a little bit more constructive in ensuring that we're keeping our powder dry.

  • Keith Beckmann - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. I'll turn it back. Thanks for taking my questions.

  • Keelan Adamson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Noel Parks, Tuohy Brothers.

  • Noel Parks - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. One thing I was wondering is, as you had mentioned that there has been more public commentary about reserve replacement among producers and the need for exploration. I'm just wondering among the players out there who might have been the latest to the party in terms of deciding that, yes, we have to address the return to the offshore, I'm just wondering maybe you can kind of characterize what some of the more recent companies approaching you have been thinking? I'm just wondering, have they been sort of sitting back and deciding that they're happy to be fast followers? Or are they now feeling like, oh, we've hung on the sidelines too long, and we need to be more aggressive, given the tightness in supply. So I was just wondering about like as I said, the latecomers.

  • Roddie Mackenzi - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • I think this is really a story about many of the companies pivoting back towards oil and gas, particularly offshore and deepwater. So it's really a story about there's less commentary or there's a pivot away from spending a tremendous amount of money in renewables and alternatives and definitely much more of a focus and an acknowledgment, if you would, that the most economic, the most reliable sources of energy are coming from traditional hydrocarbon sources. So I think that's the key shift that we're seeing is there's a pivot back towards the business that we are directly engaged in. And within that, we do offer the most cost effective and the lowest carbon barrels. So there's a lot of wins there for that.

  • And I think it's really a case of reality governs everything and eventually, we all kind of head towards that path. So that's definitely what we're seeing from our customers is that they're perhaps not spending more money overall in the name of capital discipline, but they're pivoting back towards the stuff that makes the most sense, which is the business that we are focused on.

  • Noel Parks - Analyst

  • Right. And related question, does producer M&A and A&D activity, do you see anything particular either announced or on the horizon that you see as potentially exciting opportunity? It seems we're kind of in a mode of basin rationalization but perhaps that's weighted more toward the independents. But even among those, there are quite a few of them that maybe went entirely onshore for a decade or so but have the legacy of international and offshore operations. Anything you've seen in the sort of state of deals we've seen recently has eventually been interesting to you?

  • Roddie Mackenzi - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. I mean, obviously, we've seen several consolidations there over the past couple of years. I don't see a tremendous number more on the table, but I'm sure whatever it makes sense that's going to happen. For the same reasons that we are going through our consolidation, it's all about bringing those costs down and making ourselves more efficient. So it's actually not necessarily a bad thing because the industry overall with the nature of these consolidations just becomes more efficient.

  • We become more cost effective, and therefore, we attract more dollars towards our type of exploration, our type of development. That's very important for us. So I think the consolidation at various sectors in the industry, it just makes sense from that point of view.

  • Noel Parks - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks a lot.

  • Roddie Mackenzi - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, Noel.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions in queue. I will now turn the meeting back to David.

  • David Keddington - Vice President, Treasurer

  • All right. We'd like to thank everyone who participated in our earnings conference today and invite you to follow up with us for any additional inquiries. And with that, we'll close the call.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.