羅致恆富 (RHI) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello and welcome to the Robert Half third-quarter 2025 conference call. Today's conference call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) Our host for today's call are Mr. Keith Waddell, President and Chief Executive Officer of Robert Half; and Mr. Michael Buckley, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Waddell, you may begin.

大家好，歡迎參加 Robert Half 2025 年第三季電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音。（操作員說明）今天電話會議的主持人是 Robert Half 總裁兼執行長 Keith Waddell 先生和財務長 Michael Buckley 先生。瓦德爾先生，您可以開始了。

Hello, everyone. We appreciate your time today. Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that the comments made on today's call contain forward-looking statements, including predictions and estimates about our future performance. These statements represent our current judgment of what the future holds.

大家好。感謝您今天抽出時間。在正式開始之前，我想提醒各位，今天電話會議上發表的評論包含前瞻性陳述，包括對我們未來業績的預測和估計。這些陳述代表了我們目前對未來方向的判斷。

However, they're subject to the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties are described in today's press release and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update the statements made on today's call.

然而，這些預測存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性已在今天的新聞稿以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 和 10-Q 文件中進行了描述。我們不承擔更新今天電話會議上所作聲明的義務。

During this presentation, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures and reference these figures as adjusted. Specifically, we present adjusted revenue growth rates which remove the impacts on reported revenues from the changes in the number of billing days and foreign currency exchange rates.

在本次示範中，我們可能會提及一些非GAAP財務指標，並引用這些調整後的數字。具體而言，我們展示了調整後的收入成長率，該成長率消除了帳單天數和外匯匯率變動對報告收入的影響。

Additionally, we present adjusted gross margin, adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses and adjusted operating income by combining the gains and losses on investments held to fund the company's obligations under deferred compensation plans with the changes in the underlying deferred compensation obligations.

此外，我們透過將為履行公司遞延薪酬計畫項下的義務而持有的投資的損益與相關遞延薪酬義務的變化相結合，列示了調整後的毛利率、調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用和調整後的營業收入。

Since the gains and losses from investments and the changes in the deferred compensation obligations completely offset, there's no impact on our reported net income. Reconciliations and further explanations of these measures are included in a supplemental schedule to our earnings press release. For your convenience, our prepared remarks for today's call are available in the Investor Center of our website, roberthalf.com.

由於投資收益和損失以及遞延薪酬義務的變化完全抵消，因此對我們報告的淨收入沒有影響。這些措施的核對和進一步解釋包含在我們獲利新聞稿的補充附表中。為了方便您查閱，我們今天電話會議的發言稿已準備好，可在我們網站 roberthalf.com 的投資者中心找到。

For the third quarter of 2025, global enterprise revenues were $1.354 billion, down 8% from last year's third quarter on both a reported basis and on an adjusted basis. Net income per share in the third quarter was $0.43 compared to $0.64 in the third quarter one year ago. Revenues and earnings were in line with the midpoint of our previous third quarter guidance.

2025 年第三季度，全球企業營收為 13.54 億美元，以報告基準和調整基準計算，均比去年第三季下降 8%。第三季每股淨收益為 0.43 美元，去年同期為 0.64 美元。營收和獲利與我們先前第三季預期中位數相符。

Client and job seeker caution continued during the quarter, subduing hiring activity and new project starts. That said, we're encouraged by the weekly trends and contract talent revenues, which sustained late second quarter levels for most of the third quarter and began to grow sequentially in September and into October.

本季客戶和求職者依然保持謹慎，抑制了招募活動和新專案啟動。儘管如此，我們對每週的趨勢和簽約人才收入感到鼓舞，這些收入在第三季度的大部分時間都維持了第二季度末的水平，並在 9 月和 10 月開始環比增長。

Our fourth quarter revenue guidance at and above the midpoint reflects a return to sequential growth on a same-day constant currency basis for the first time since the second quarter of 2022. We remain very well positioned to capitalize on these emerging opportunities and meet our clients' evolving talent and consulting needs. Our industry-leading brand, talented people, advanced technology and our unique combination of professional staffing and business consulting services continue to set us apart and position us for long-term success.

我們第四季營收預期達到或超過中點，反映出自 2022 年第二季以來，以當日固定匯率計算，營收將首次恢復季增。我們依然處於非常有利的地位，能夠抓住這些新興機遇，滿足客戶不斷變化的人才和諮詢需求。我們行業領先的品牌、優秀的人才、先進的技術以及我們獨特的專業人員配備和商業諮詢服務組合，使我們不斷脫穎而出，並為長期成功奠定了基礎。

Cash flow provided by operations during the quarter was $77 million. In September, we distributed a $0.59 per share cash dividend to our shareholders of record for a total cash outlay of $59 million. We also acquired approximately 550,000 Robert Half shares during the quarter for $20 million. We have 5.6 million shares available for repurchase under our board-approved stock repurchase plan. Return on invested capital for the company was 13% in the third quarter.

本季經營活動產生的現金流量為 7,700 萬美元。9 月份，我們向登記在冊的股東派發了每股 0.59 美元的現金股息，總現金支出為 5,900 萬美元。本季我們也以 2,000 萬美元的價格收購了約 55 萬股 Robert Half 股票。根據董事會批准的股票回購計劃，我們有 560 萬股可供回購。該公司第三季的投資資本報酬率為13%。

Now I'll turn the call over to our CFO, Mike Buckley.

現在我將把電話交給我們的財務長邁克·巴克利。

Thank you, Keith, and hello, everyone. As Keith noted, global revenues were $1.354 billion in the third quarter. On an adjusted basis, third-quarter talent solutions revenues were down 11% year-over-year. US talent solutions revenues were $649 million, down 11% from the prior year's third quarter. Non-US talent solutions revenues were $207 million, down 12% year-over-year. We conduct talent solutions operations through offices in the United States and 18 other countries.

謝謝你，基思，大家好。正如基思所指出的，第三季全球收入為 13.54 億美元。經調整後，第三季人才解決方案營收年減 11%。美國人才解決方案營收為 6.49 億美元，比去年同期下降 11%。非美國人才解決方案營收為 2.07 億美元，年減 12%。我們透過位於美國和其他 18 個國家的辦事處開展人才解決方案業務。

In the third quarter, there were 64.2 billing days compared to 64.1 billing days in the same quarter one year ago. The fourth quarter of 2025 has 61.4 billing days compared to 61.6 billing, days during the fourth quarter of 2024.

第三季度，計費天數為 64.2 天，去年同期為 64.1 天。2025 年第四季的計費天數為 61.4 天，而 2024 年第四季的計費天數為 61.6 天。

Currency exchange rate movements during the third quarter had the effect of increasing reported year-over-year total revenues by $9 million, and that was $6 million for talent solutions and $3 million for Protiviti. Contract talent solutions bill rates for the third quarter increased 3.7% compared to one year ago, adjusted for changes in the mix of revenues by functional specialization, currency and country. This rate for the second quarter was 3.8%.

第三季匯率波動導致報告的總營收年增 900 萬美元，其中人才解決方案收入成長 600 萬美元，Protiviti 營收成長 300 萬美元。根據按職能專業化、貨幣和國家調整後的收入組合變化，第三季合約人才解決方案的計費率比一年前增長了 3.7%。第二季的成長率為3.8%。

Now let's take a closer look at results for Protiviti. Global revenues in the third quarter were $498 million: $398 million of this is from the United States and $100 million is from outside of the United States. On an adjusted basis, global third quarter Protiviti revenues were down 3% versus the year ago period. US Protiviti revenues were down 6%, while non-US Protiviti revenues were up 8% compared to one year ago. Protiviti and its independently owned member firms serve clients through locations in the United States and 28 other countries.

現在讓我們仔細看看Protiviti的業績。第三季全球營收為 4.98 億美元：其中 3.98 億美元來自美國，1 億美元來自美國以外地區。經調整後，Protiviti 第三季全球營收年減 3%。與一年前相比，Protiviti 在美國的收入下降了 6%，而 Protiviti 在美國以外的收入則增加了 8%。Protiviti 及其獨立擁有的成員公司透過位於美國和其他 28 個國家的辦事處為客戶提供服務。

Turning now to gross margin. In contract talent solutions, gross margin was 38.9% of applicable revenues in both the current quarter and the third quarter one year ago. Conversion or contract to hire revenues were 3.2% of contract revenues in the current quarter compared to 3.3% in the third quarter of 2024. Our permanent placement revenues were 12.9% of consolidated talent solutions revenues in both the current quarter and the third quarter of 2024.

接下來我們來看毛利率。在合約人才解決方案方面，本季和去年同期第三季的毛利率均為適用收入的 38.9%。本季度，轉正或合約轉聘收入佔合約收入的 3.2%，而 2024 年第三季這一比例為 3.3%。本季和 2024 年第三季度，我們的永久職位安置收入佔綜合人才解決方案收入的 12.9%。

When combined with contract talent solutions gross margin, overall gross margin for talent solutions was 46.7% of applicable revenues in the current quarter compared to 46.8% in the third quarter of 2024. For Protiviti, gross margin was 20.9% of Protiviti revenues in the third quarter and 24.6% in the third quarter one year ago. Adjusted gross margin for Protiviti was 23% for the quarter just ended compared to 25.8% last year.

加上合約人才解決方案的毛利率，本季人才解決方案的整體毛利率為適用收入的 46.7%，而 2024 年第三季為 46.8%。Protiviti 第三季的毛利率為 Protiviti 營收的 20.9%，去年同期為 24.6%。Protiviti 剛結束的季度調整後毛利率為 23%，去年同期為 25.8%。

Moving on to SG&A. Enterprise SG&A costs were 36.2% of global revenues in the third quarter compared to 34.9% in the same quarter one year ago. Adjusted enterprise SG&A costs were 33.5% for the quarter just ended compared to 33.3% one year ago. Talent solutions SG&A costs were 48.3% of talent solutions revenues in the third quarter, versus 45.2% in the third quarter of 2024.

接下來是銷售、一般及行政費用。第三季企業銷售、一般及行政費用佔全球收入的 36.2%，去年同期為 34.9%。調整後的企業銷售、一般及行政費用佔比為 33.5%，而一年前為 33.3%。第三季人才解決方案銷售、一般及行政費用佔人才解決方案收入的 48.3%，而 2024 年第三季這一比例為 45.2%。

Adjusted talent solutions SG&A costs were 43.9% for the quarter just ended compared to 42.8% last year. Third-quarter SG&A costs for Protiviti were 15.5% of Protiviti revenues, compared to 15.6% of revenues for the quarter one year ago. Operating income for the quarter was $14 million. Adjusted operating income was $61 million in the third quarter, or 4.5% of revenue.

調整後的人才解決方案銷售、一般及行政費用佔比為 43.9%，去年同期為 42.8%。Protiviti 第三季銷售、一般及行政費用佔 Protiviti 收入的 15.5%，而去年同期比例為 15.6%。本季營業收入為1400萬美元。第三季調整後營業收入為 6,100 萬美元，佔營收的 4.5%。

Third-quarter adjusted operating income from our talent solutions divisions was $24 million, or 2.8% of revenue. Adjusted operating income for Protiviti in the third quarter was $37 million, or 7.5% of revenue. Our third-quarter 2025 income statement includes a $48 million gain from investments held in employee deferred compensation trusts. This is completely offset by an equal amount of higher employee deferred compensation costs, which are reflected in SG&A expenses and direct costs. As such, it has no effect on our reported net income.

第三季度，我們人才解決方案部門的調整後營業收入為 2,400 萬美元，佔營收的 2.8%。Protiviti 第三季的調整後營業收入為 3,700 萬美元，佔營收的 7.5%。我們 2025 年第三季的損益表包括員工遞延補償信託投資的 4,800 萬美元收益。但這完全被等額的員工遞延薪酬成本增加所抵消，這些成本反映在銷售、一般及行政費用和直接成本中。因此，這對我們公佈的淨收入沒有影響。

Our third-quarter tax rate was 33%, compared to 31% one year ago. The higher tax rate in the current quarter is due to the increased impact of non-deductible expenses related to lower pretax income. At the end of the third quarter, accounts receivable were $838 million, and implied days sales outstanding, or DSO, was 55.8 days.

第三季稅率為 33%，而一年前為 31%。本季稅率較高是由於稅前收入降低導致不可抵扣支出增加所致。第三季末，應收帳款為 8.38 億美元，隱含應收帳款週轉天數（DSO）為 55.8 天。

Before we move to fourth quarter guidance, let's review some of the monthly revenue trends we saw in the third quarter and so far in October, all adjusted for currency and billing days. Contract talent solutions exited the third quarter with September revenues down 10% versus the prior year, compared to a 10.9% decrease for the full quarter. Revenues for the first two weeks of October were down 9.7% compared to the same period last year.

在給出第四季度業績指引之前，讓我們回顧一下第三季和10月份至今的月度收入趨勢，所有數據均已根據匯率和帳單日進行調整。合約人才解決方案業務第三季末，9 月的營收比去年同期下降了 10%，而整個季度的營收下降了 10.9%。10 月前兩週的營收比去年同期下降了 9.7%。

Permanent placement revenues in September were down 12.3% versus September of 2024. This compares to an 11.4% decrease for the full quarter. For the first three weeks of October, permanent placement revenues were down 3.3% compared to the same period in 2024. We provide this information so that you have insight into some of the trends we saw during the third quarter and into October. But as you know, these are very brief time periods. We caution against reading too much into that.

9 月永久職位安置收入比 2024 年 9 月下降了 12.3%。相比之下，整個季度下降了11.4%。10 月的前三週，永久職位安置收入與 2024 年同期相比下降了 3.3%。我們提供這些信息，以便您了解我們在第三季度和十月份觀察到的一些趨勢。但如你所知，這些都是非常短暫的時間段。我們建議不要對此過度解讀。

With that in mind, we offer the following fourth quarter guidance: Revenues, $1.245 billion to $1.345 billion, income per share, $0.25 to $0.35. Midpoint revenues of $1.295 billion are 7% lower than the same period in 2024 on an as-adjusted basis. Our midpoint revenue guidance for the fourth quarter reflects a return to positive adjusted sequential growth for the first time in 13 quarters.

有鑑於此，我們提供以下第四季業績指引：營收12.45億美元至13.45億美元，每股收益0.25美元至0.35美元。經調整後，營收中位數為12.95億美元，較2024年同期下降7%。我們對第四季度營收的中位數預期反映了13個季度以來首次恢復正的經調整環比成長。

Our Q4 midpoint adjusted operating margin guidance declined sequentially by 1.3 percentage points, which is consistent with long-term historical trends. Fewer billing days because of the holidays result in modest Q4 negative leverage of operating costs.

我們第四季調整後營業利潤率預期中位數較上季下降 1.3 個百分點，這與長期歷史趨勢一致。由於假日導致計費天數減少，因此第四季度營運成本的槓桿作用略為負。

The major financial assumptions underlying the midpoint of these estimates are as follows: Adjusted revenue growth year-over-year: talent solutions, down 8% to 11%; Protiviti, flat to down 4%; overall, down 5% to 9%. Adjusted gross margin percentages: contract talent, 38% to 40%; Protiviti, 22% to 24%; overall, 36% to 39%. Adjusted SG&A as a percentage of revenues: talent solutions, 44% to 46%; Protiviti, 15% to 17%; overall, 33% to 36%.

這些估算中點的主要財務假設如下：經調整的收入年增：人才解決方案下降 8% 至 11%；Protiviti 持平或下降 4%；整體下降 5% 至 9%。調整後的毛利率百分比：合約人才，38% 至 40%；Protiviti，22% 至 24%；總體，36% 至 39%。調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用佔收入的百分比：人才解決方案，44% 至 46%；Protiviti，15% 至 17%；總體，33% 至 36%。

Adjusted operating income as a percentage of revenues: talent solutions, flat to 2%; Protiviti, 6% to 8%; overall, 2% to 5%. Tax rate: 30% to 34%; shares outstanding: $99 million to $100 million. The 2025 capital expenditures and capitalized cloud computing costs: $75 million to $90 million, with $15 million to $25 million in the fourth quarter.

調整後的營業收入佔收入的百分比：人才解決方案持平至 2%；Protiviti 為 6% 至 8%；整體為 2% 至 5%。稅率：30%至34%；流通股數：9,900萬美元至1億美元。2025 年資本支出與資本化雲端運算成本：7,500 萬美元至 9,000 萬美元，其中第四季為 1,500 萬美元至 2,500 萬美元。

While we do not provide full earnings guidance for two quarters into the future, we would call out the following seasonal items we expect to impact the first quarter of 2026. Historically, Protiviti's Q1 segment margins seasonally decline by mid-single-digit percentage points on a sequential basis. There are two primary drivers of this. Internal audit revenues are negatively impacted as clients focus instead on annual financial statements and related external audits. In addition, Protiviti employees received annual compensation adjustments effective January 1, which are recovered through pricing adjustments realized as client contracts are negotiated. Segment margins then improved accordingly.

雖然我們不提供未來兩季的完整獲利預測，但我們會指出以下幾個季節性因素，預計這些因素將對 2026 年第一季產生影響。從歷史數據來看，Protiviti 第一季各業務部門的利潤率通常會按季度環比下降個位數百分比。這主要有兩個原因。由於客戶將注意力轉向年度財務報表和相關的外部審計，內部審計收入受到負面影響。此外，Protiviti 的員工從 1 月 1 日起獲得了年度薪酬調整，這些調整是透過在客戶合約談判中實現的定價調整來彌補的。隨後，各業務板塊的利潤率也隨之提高。

A majority of our employee stock compensation awards vest in the first quarter each year, and the related tax benefits are measured based upon the stock price at that time. With the current stock price below grant values, we expect an unfavorable Q1 tax charge of $4 million, or approximately $0.04 per share. All estimates we provide on this call are subject to the risks mentioned in today's press release and in our SEC filings.

我們大部分的員工股票獎勵在每年的第一季歸屬，相關的稅收優惠是根據當時的股價來衡量的。由於目前的股價低於授予價值，我們預計第一季將產生不利的稅收支出 400 萬美元，即每股約 0.04 美元。我們在本次電話會議中提供的所有預測均受今天新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險的影響。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Keith.

現在我把電話轉回給基斯。

Thank you, Mike. While the macroeconomic backdrop is generally unchanged, we are seeing some early signs of improvement as trade policy volatility becomes business as usual and the probability of multiple interest rate cuts rises. While decision cycles are still measured, we are beginning to have more client discussions about staffing deferred projects and hiring for critical roles.

謝謝你，麥克。儘管宏觀經濟背景總體上沒有變化，但隨著貿易政策波動成為常態，以及多次降息的可能性上升，我們看到了一些改善的早期跡象。雖然決策週期仍在製定中，但我們開始與客戶就延期專案的人員配備和關鍵職位的招聘進行更多討論。

As we mentioned earlier, we are encouraged by our recent weekly revenue trends that have turned up sequentially. While overall hiring and quit rates remain low, job openings continue to trend well above historical averages, signaling strong pent-up demand for talent.

正如我們之前提到的，我們最近每週的收入趨勢環比增長，這令我們感到鼓舞。儘管整體招聘率和離職率仍然很低，但職缺數量持續遠高於歷史平均水平，這表明市場對人才有強烈的潛在需求。

Though the latest NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is modestly below its recent peaks, the average for the past 3 months is up sequentially, and small business hiring plans are at their highest level since January. Rising client and candidate confidence fuels additional hiring and project activity and increases pressure on already stretched client resources. These are the conditions that have historically marked the early stages of recovery and expansion, creating a strong demand environment for both our talent solutions and consulting services.

儘管最新的 NFIB 小型企業樂觀指數略低於近期的峰值，但過去 3 個月的平均值環比上升，小型企業招聘計劃也達到了 1 月以來的最高水平。客戶和候選人信心的增強會促進招募和專案活動，並增加本已捉襟見肘的客戶資源的壓力。這些條件歷來標誌著復甦和擴張的早期階段，為我們的人才解決方案和諮詢服務創造了強勁的需求環境。

With historically low levels of unemployment, clients will need even more professional assistance filling their open roles and unstaffed projects.

由於失業率處於歷史低位，客戶將需要更多專業協助來填補空缺職位和人員不足的專案。

As expected, Protiviti's year-over-year growth rates turned slightly negative during the quarter, in part due to tougher prior year comparables from large project builds, and also due to longer sales cycles and smaller sized new engagements. That said, Protiviti's pipeline continues to grow across all of its major solutions areas, and at the midpoint of our Q4 revenue guidance, its growth rates are expected to improve.

正如預期的那樣，Protiviti 的年增速在本季度略微轉為負值，部分原因是去年同期大型專案建設的比較基數較高，也因為銷售週期延長和新專案規模較小。儘管如此，Protiviti 在所有主要解決方案領域的業務持續成長，預計到我們第四季營收預期中點，其成長率將會提高。

The strategic use of contract professionals sourced through our talent solutions divisions remains a vital contributor to Protiviti's success, reinforcing our unique enterprise-wide competitive edge.

透過我們的人才解決方案部門策略性地聘用合約制專業人員，仍然是 Protiviti 取得成功的重要因素，鞏固了我們獨特的企業級競爭優勢。

We remain committed to our time-tested corporate purpose to connect people to meaningful and exciting work, and provide clients with the talent and consulting expertise they need to confidently compete and grow. Our employees' commitment to success earned us several honors in the third quarter, including being named by Forbes among the World's Best Employers and America's Best Employers for Company Culture, and by Fortune, as one of the Best Workplaces in Consulting and Professional Services™.

我們始終秉承久經考驗的企業宗旨，致力於將人們與有意義、令人興奮的工作聯繫起來，並為客戶提供他們自信競爭和發展所需的人才和諮詢專業知識。在第三季度，我們員工對成功的執著追求為我們贏得了多項榮譽，包括被《福布斯》評為“全球最佳雇主”和“美國最佳企業文化雇主”，以及被《財富》雜誌評為“諮詢和專業服務領域最佳工作場所”之一。

Now Mike and I'd be happy to answer your questions. Please ask just one question and a single follow-up as needed. If there's time, we'll come back to you for additional questions.

現在我和麥克很樂意回答你們的問題。請只提一個問題，如有需要，再進行一次後續詢問。如果有時間，我們會再聯絡您詢問其他問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Mark Marcon, Baird.

馬克馬爾孔，貝爾德。

I want to start with Protiviti. Keith, during the last call -- last quarter, you mentioned that the pipeline was building. And I was wondering, when we take a look at the fourth quarter guide for Protiviti, to what extent did you see some of those projects materialize as expected? How is the conversion rate with regards to the pipeline?

我想先從Protiviti開始。Keith，在上個季度的上次電話會議上，你提到管道正在建設中。我想知道，當我們查看 Protiviti 第四季度業績指引時，您認為其中一些項目在多大程度上實現了預期目標？銷售通路的轉換率如何？

And can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing from a pricing perspective on the Protiviti side? In other words, is the gross margin down slightly due to lower utilization rates? Or is there anything that's going on from a pricing perspective?

您能否從定價的角度談談您對 Protiviti 的看法？換句話說，毛利率略有下降是否是因為利用率降低？或者說，價格方面有變化嗎？

Well, we did say the pipe was growing last quarter, and we continue to say that. It's growing on a gross basis, year-on-year, and it's also growing on a probability of success weighted basis. So we feel good about the pipe. We are winning pretty much as expected.

嗯，我們上個季度確實說過管道正在成長，我們現在仍然這麼認為。從總額上看，它逐年增長；從成功機率加權來看，它也在增長。所以我們對這根管道感覺很好。我們基本上按照預期贏得了比賽。

That said, we talked about large projects that were coming to end. And as we replace those, we're replacing them with smaller projects that have shorter durations and are not as efficient, if you will, as we can operate on the larger projects.

也就是說，我們討論了一些即將結束的大型專案。隨著我們逐步替換這些項目，我們將用規模較小、工期較短、效率不如大型項目的項目來替換它們。

As to pricing, we've said the pricing has been competitive for some time. The gross margin pieces are nuanced, the utilization looks good at face value. Part of how we get there is that we reassign Protiviti full-time employees to projects that were otherwise to be staffed by contractors, and understand that the bill rate for contractors is about a third of what it is for the average full-time staff. And so there is some margin compression by that reallocation of resources, which is being done to keep as many Protiviti full-time people deployed and employed as possible.

至於價格方面，我們之前說過，我們的價格一直都很有競爭力。毛利率構成比較複雜，從表面上使用率似乎不錯。我們實現這一目標的部分方法是將 Protiviti 的全職員工重新分配到原本應由承包商負責的專案中，並且我們了解到，承包商的計費率大約是普通全職員工​​計費率的三分之一。因此，透過重新分配資源，利潤空間已壓縮，這樣做是為了盡可能保留和僱用 Protiviti 的全職員工。

So there's no major pricing story other than there's a mix shift to shorter projects. And further, there's a mix shift to reallocate full-time employees down to contractor roles in the short term as client caution subsides and confidence grows. But again, the pipeline looks good. If anything, we feel just as good today about Protiviti, and talent solutions for that matter, as we did 90 days ago.

所以除了專案週期轉變為短週期專案之外，價格方面並沒有重大變動。此外，隨著客戶謹慎情緒消退、信心增強，短期內將部分全職員工重新分配為合約工。但話說回來，這條管道看起來不錯。如果有什麼改變的話，那就是我們今天對 Protiviti 以及人才解決方案的信心，就像 90 天前一樣。

That's great. Keith, I hesitate to ask this on the call, but you probably wouldn't answer it if I ask offline. It's got to ask online. There's been lots of chatter among investors about the sustainability of the dividend. And I was wondering -- I know it's a board decision, but I'm wondering if you can comment with regards to the commitment to the dividend.

那太棒了。基思，我不好意思在電話裡問這個問題，但如果我私下問你，你可能不會回答。必須上網問。投資者一直在熱議股息的可持續性問題。我想問一下——我知道這是董事會的決定，但我想知道您能否就分紅承諾發表一些看法。

And it sounds like sequentially, we may start seeing some improvement with regards to revenue trends. But if the trend that's been in place for a while continues, what sort of leverage do you have in order to protect the dividend? Or is that something that is not all that important?

聽起來，從季度來看，我們可能會開始看到收入趨勢有所改善。但如果這種持續一段時間的趨勢持續下去，你有什麼辦法可以保護股利呢？或者說，這件事其實沒那麼重要？

Well, the dividend is very important, and we remain very committed to it. I would say that the second and third quarters and then for at midpoint guidance for the fourth quarter, our free cash flow more than covers the dividend. The first quarter is a seasonally low cash flow quarter. So that wasn't the case then. But near-term results say free cash flow covers the dividend.

嗯，分紅非常重要，我們始終致力於此。我認為，第二季和第三季度，以及第四季的中點預期，我們的自由現金流都足以支付股利。第一季通常是現金流較低的季度。所以當時的情況並非如此。但短期業績表明，自由現金流足以支付股利。

Beyond that, we do have $360-odd million of cash on the balance sheet. So there's a cushion from that. And further, I would say that if unlike our recent trends, which have been positive, they were to turn around as we move forward, just as we did in 2023 and just as we did in 2024, we would look at our cost structure. But we remain very committed to returning all our free cash flow to investors.

除此之外，我們的資產負債表上還有大約 3.6 億美元的現金。所以這方面還有緩衝空間。此外，我想說，如果與我們最近的積極趨勢不同，隨著我們向前邁進，情況會像我們在 2023 年和 2024 年所做的那樣發生逆轉，我們將審視我們的成本結構。但我們仍然致力於將所有自由現金流回饋給投資者。

Because we're in the third year of a staffing industry downturn on an absolute basis, our numbers are lower, which means a disproportionate part of that free cash flow is going to return via dividends, but that's just how it is.

由於我們已經連續三年處於人力資源行業的低迷狀態，我們的業績有所下滑，這意味著大部分自由現金流將以股息的形式返還，但事實就是如此。

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

Andrew Steinerman，摩根大通。

Keith, I'm going to ask you to use an additive when describing the fourth-quarter revenue guide versus the third quarter. I know your team is encouraged by the revenue pickup recently on a weekly basis, on a sequential basis. But I think if you look at sequential fourth quarter versus third, the pickup is still below a typical seasonal pickup on the flex side. Would you describe the guide then as conservative?

基思，我希望你在描述第四季營收預期與第三季營收預期的對比時，使用一個加法。我知道你們團隊對近期每週、每季的營收成長感到鼓舞。但我認為，如果你比較第四季和第三季的數據，你會發現靈活位置的球員成長仍然低於典型的賽季成長。那麼你會把這位導遊描述為保守派嗎？

We would describe the guide as conservative. But let's start with, we met our third-quarter guide. And we would say that if you looked at our September, so far October results and you took that run rate for all of the effective billing days in the fourth quarter, we would grow sequentially by 1.5 points to 2 points. And what we forecast is just barely being positive.

我們會把這份指南描述為保守的。但首先，我們來看看我們是否達到了第三季的業績目標。我們表示，如果您查看我們 9 月和 10 月迄今為止的業績，並將該業績應用於第四季度所有有效計費日，我們將環比增長 1.5 個百分點至 2 個百分點。我們預測的結果也僅僅勉強為正。

And so the differential would be a cushion, and that cushion isn’t that different than what we had in the third quarter where we met the guidance. It is true that traditionally, you get some seasonal uptick in the fourth quarter, small single digit. But that's also been true in the last three years where it didn't happen. And so I think we could safely say this isn't purely a normal seasonal trend that we're seeing given that we didn't see that normal seasonal trend in the last three years.

因此，差額將起到緩衝作用，而這個緩衝作用與我們在第三季達到預期目標時所擁有的緩衝作用並沒有太大區別。傳統上，第四季確實會出現一些季節性的小幅成長，但增幅通常為個位數。但在過去三年裡，這種情況並沒有發生，所以也是如此。因此，鑑於過去三年我們並沒有看到正常的季節性趨勢，我認為我們可以肯定地說，我們看到的東西並不完全是正常的季節性趨勢。

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

馬納夫·帕特奈克，巴克萊銀行。

This is Ronan Kennedy on for Manav. Can you please confirm the margin driver dynamics and the puts and takes of the guided 4Q margins, the role mix conversion wage rate bill-pay spreads and anything to call out from a segment-specific standpoint, please?

這裡是羅南甘迺迪，為您報道馬納夫。請您確認利潤率驅動因素的動態變化，以及對第四季度利潤率的預期，角色組合轉換率、工資率、帳單支付利差，並從特定細分市場的角度提出任何需要指出的問題？

Well, we first talked about same-day sequential having a small amount of growth. That said, remember, the fourth quarter is a short quarter. We talk about same day, but the facts are there [are] three fewer days sequentially. And so given those three fewer days, you're going to lever your fixed cost less, which for Protiviti means gross margin because their staff is upstairs. And for talent solutions is SG&A, because most of their costs are downstairs.

首先，我們討論了當日連續出貨量略有成長的問題。話雖如此，但請記住，第四季度是一個較短的季度。我們說的是同一天，但事實是連續少了三天。因此，由於工期縮短了三天，你的固定成本槓桿作用就會降低，這對 Protiviti 來說意味著毛利率會降低，因為他們的員工都在樓上。而人才解決方案的成本主要體現在銷售、管理及行政費用上，因為他們大部分的成本都集中在底層。

And so again, kind of walking through the puts and takes from a gross margin standpoint, we see flat sequentially in talent solutions. And I would point out that notwithstanding this staffing industry downturn the last three years, our gross margins have held up remarkably, and we would note that, that reinforces because it's a proxy for the value-added our clients see. And so our gross margins have performed wonderfully, and we expect that to continue starting with the fourth quarter.

因此，再次從毛利率的角度分析投入和產出，我們看到人才解決方案方面出現了周期性持平。我想指出，儘管過去三年人力資源行業低迷，但我們的毛利率卻保持得相當不錯，這一點也印證了這一點，因為它反映了我們為客戶創造的附加價值。因此，我們的毛利率表現非常出色，我們預計從第四季度開始，這種情況將繼續保持。

Protiviti again, because most of their costs are upstairs and cost of sales, the shorter quarter impacts them there. And so at midpoint, Protiviti's gross margins are down 20-ish basis points. And that's actually better than a year ago when in the fourth quarter, their gross margins were down 70 basis points. I talked about SG&A. It's a shorter quarter, you get some negative leverage from that. And so when you put all those pieces together, operating income, fourth quarter down 1.3 percentage points sequentially.

Protiviti 再次受到影響，因為他們的大部分成本都在樓上，銷售成本也較高，所以季度縮短對他們的影響很大。因此，截至年中，Protiviti 的毛利率下降了約 20 個基點。實際上，這比一年前的情況要好，當時第四季度他們的毛利率下降了 70 個基點。我談到了銷售、一般及行政費用。這是一個較短的季度，因此會帶來一些負面影響。因此，綜合所有這些因素來看，第四季營業收入季減 1.3 個百分點。

We looked at a 10-year -- the last 10 years, take out COVID. And for 10 of 10 over the last 10 years, sequentially, our operating margins have been down on average by one point. And so we're right there. I would argue the progression from Q3 to Q4 with our guidance is very normal, very non-remarkable, if you look at that same trend for the last 10 years. And as I said earlier, relative to 98 days ago, we feel better as we sit here today.

我們考察了過去 10 年的情況—排除新冠疫情的影響。在過去的 10 年中，我們的營業利潤率連續 10 年平均下降了 1 個百分點。所以我們就到了。我認為，根據我們的預期，從第三季到第四季的發展趨勢非常正常，並不引人注目，如果你看看過去 10 年的相同趨勢的話。正如我之前所說，與 98 天前相比，我們今天感覺好多了。

Thank you very much for the comprehensive answer. Can I confirm for trends exiting 3Q and early in 4? What are you seeing from a perm placement versus contract? And then in the context of kind of historical sensitivity and the demand dynamics, reflection or reaction to demand inflections, what does that tell you about a potential recovery?

非常感謝您詳盡的解答。我能否確認一下第三季末和第四季初的趨勢？您認為正式員工和合約工有什麼不同？那麼，結合歷史敏感度和需求動態，以及對需求拐點的反映或反應，這又能說明潛在的復甦是什麼呢？

Well, we've talked before, perm is more volatile. Perm is less predictive in short periods. Ironically, this time, perm is actually better than contract. So I'd prefer not to say that, but it's still the truth. Contract, we're now comparing to a year ago. A year ago, if you think about it, we had immediately before and immediately after the election, and there was some euphoria from that, particularly with our SMB clients. And so we had some sequential pick-up that halted, if you will, with the tariff uncertainty that happened thereafter.

我們之前也討論過，燙髮比較容易出問題。短期內，Perm 的預測能力較差。諷刺的是，這一次，正式員工實際上比合約工更好。所以我寧願不這麼說，但這仍然是事實。合約方面，我們現在要和一年前的情況進行比較。回想一下一年前，我們經歷了選舉前後的一段時間，當時市場一片歡騰，尤其是我們的中小企業客戶。因此，我們經歷了一段循序漸進的增長期，但隨後由於關稅的不確定性而停滯了。

And so the year-on-year comps aren't as easy as they might be. And so perm versus contract -- the other observation I would make for the third quarter ended, perm was a little soft, but we still overall met guidance.

因此，與前一年相比，比較結果並不像看起來那麼容易。因此，關於正式員工與合約工——我對第三季結束的另一個觀察是，正式員工人數略有下降，但我們總體上仍然達到了預期目標。

But perm was a little soft for reasons that I think you'd find somewhat surprising. It was more on the candidate side than the demand from client side as we were seeing more candidate turndowns because the compensation increases to switch and/or the work flexibility, i.e., work remote, neither of which together were enough to entice candidates who already had a full-time job to switch to a new full-time job -- and we actually had a little more struggle on the candidate side with perm than on the client side, which is a little counterintuitive, at least based on what you read every day.

但燙髮效果有點軟，原因我想你可能會覺得有些意外。問題更多出在求職者方面，而不是客戶。我們看到越來越多的求職者因為薪資上漲和/或工作靈活性（例如遠距辦公）而拒絕新工作，但這兩項加起來都不足以吸引已經有全職工作的求職者跳槽到新的全職工作——而且實際上，我們在求職者方面比在客戶方面遇到了更多困難，這有點違反直覺，至少根據你每天讀到的內容是這樣讀到。

And so net-net, I think the trend for both contract and perm, September into October is positive. And that's what informs our guidance for the quarter.

因此總而言之，我認為從九月到十月，無論是合約工還是正式工，趨勢都是正面的。這就是我們制定本季業績指引的依據。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

Stephanie Moore，傑富瑞集團。

I was hoping maybe we could continue on a conversation that we had, maybe two questions ago as we look at Protiviti and the gross margin profile. So kind of two-point questions. The first question, and I apologize if I missed it. I just wanted to hear what drove the compression in Protiviti gross margin year-over-year?

我希望我們能繼續剛才的話題，大概是兩個問題之前我們討論過的 Protiviti 和毛利率狀況。所以，這是兩個要點的問題。第一個問題，如果我漏掉了，請見諒。我只是想知道是什麼原因導致 Protiviti 的毛利率年減？

And then secondly, your second part maybe a little bit more of a philosophical or longer-term question. What's your degree of confidence for the Protiviti business to return to that more so high 20s gross margin profile that we saw a couple of years ago? What do we need to see from overall market or demand or pricing or however you want to describe it standpoint?

其次，你的第二部分問題可能更偏向哲學層面或更長遠的問題。您有多大信心Protiviti的業務能夠恢復到幾年前我們看到的20%以上的毛利率水準？從整體市場、需求、定價或其他任何角度來看，我們需要看到什麼？

If you look about -- if you look at Protiviti gross margin compression over the last couple of years, we would comment that, one, the cumulative inflation that's impacted their staff cost has been meaningful. And in the competitive kind of Big Four consulting market, there's been challenges with passing all of that through. I'd say, further, Protiviti is very committed to their staff. They're doing everything they can to keep as many as they can and that has impacted utilization a bit.

如果你觀察一下——如果你觀察一下 Protiviti 過去幾年的毛利率壓縮情況，我們會指出，首先，影響其員工成本的累積通貨膨脹是相當顯著的。在競爭激烈的四大顧問公司市場中，要把所有這些資訊傳遞出去都面臨挑戰。此外，我認為 Protiviti 非常重視員工。他們正在盡一切努力留住盡可能多的員工，這在一定程度上影響了員工的使用率。

And further, as I did say earlier, to help the utilization, they're willing to underutilize some of their full-time staff by putting them in contractor roles to make that happen. I'd say further, if you look at the nature of the projects over the last particularly 12 months, you've got a lower mix of very large, very efficient high-margin projects that have been replaced by smaller, shorter duration, i.e., lower margin projects. So all of those have resulted in gross margin compression.

此外，正如我之前所說，為了提高利用率，他們願意讓一些全職員工擔任合約工，從而降低他們的使用率。我還要補充一點，如果你觀察一下過去 12 個月的專案性質，你會發現規模較大、效率較高、利潤豐厚的專案比例有所下降，取而代之的是規模較小、工期較短、利潤較低的專案。因此，所有這些因素都導致了毛利率的下降。

As we look to the future and their opportunity forever and ever and ever, we've said we're committed with Protiviti. Protiviti is committed to double-digit operating margins. They certainly had that in the past. They've not in the last couple of years. They do expect improvements in their operating margins in 2026 and beyond. That's going to come in part through the nature of their projects, returning more to the historical norm. That's going to be to even more diligent management of their staff resources up and down the pyramid, meaning at the highest level of managing directors all the way to the lowest levels of staff.

展望未來，展望他們永遠的機遇，我們已經說過，我們將全力支持 Protiviti。Protiviti致力於實現兩位數的營業利潤率。他們過去確實有過這種情況。近幾年他們沒有這樣做。他們預計2026年及以後營業利潤率將會提高。這部分將透過他們項目的性質來實現，並更多地回歸歷史常態。這意味著要更認真地管理金字塔上各層級的員工資源，從最高層的總經理到最基層的員工。

And so Protiviti is very committed to getting their gross margins back to double digits. I mean there have been periods in history where they've been much higher than that. But what we've committed to for a long time is Protiviti is a double-digit operating margin business. And we clearly see a line of sight to that sooner rather than later. It's not going to happen overnight. But we definitely expect higher Protiviti gross margins and therefore, operating margins in 2026.

因此，Protiviti 非常致力於將毛利率恢復到兩位數。我的意思是，歷史上也曾經有過比這高得多的時期。但我們長期以來致力於實現的是，Protiviti 的營業利潤率要達到兩位數。而我們顯然看到，這個目標很快就能實現。這不會一蹴可幾。但我們預計 Protiviti 的毛利率和營業利潤率在 2026 年將會更高。

Trevor Romeo, William Blair.

特雷弗·羅密歐，威廉·布萊爾。

Just wanted to start maybe by kind of thinking about your longer-term operating margin opportunity. Demand kind of is what it is. Hopefully, we're at the low point of the cycle now. But as you're thinking about, I guess, things that you can do internally such as maybe investments in technology, other productivity efficiency initiatives. I guess what kind of initiatives or investments are you making now for the next couple of years? And how much of a positive impact do you think that could have on margins outside of what happens with demand?

我想先從思考一下你們的長期營運利潤率提昇機會著手。需求就是這樣。希望我們現在已經處於週期的低谷期。但我想，當你思考的時候，你可以考慮一些內部措施，例如投資科技、其他提高生產力的舉措。我想問一下，未來幾年你們有哪些舉措或投資計畫？除了需求變化之外，你認為這會對利潤率產生多大的正面影響？

Well, I think the single most important thing we can do for upside to margins is to continue to move up the skill curve across our talent solutions practice groups because two-way group, we get higher margins at higher skills than we do at the more operational skills. So I would point to that, number one.

我認為，提高利潤率最重要的一點是，我們能夠繼續提升人才解決方案實踐團隊的技能水平，因為雙向團隊的技能水平越高，利潤率就越高，而技能水平越高，利潤率就越低。所以，我會指出這一點，這是第一點。

Two, we absolutely plan to re-lever our operating costs that have been de-levered over the last three years. That gets us higher operating margins. Technology, we've talked a lot about we have award-winning matching engines, which gets us better candidates in front of clients, better jobs in front of candidates, which they both have forever prioritized as their number one item of concern.

第二，我們絕對計劃重新利用過去三年已經去槓桿化的營運成本。這樣可以提高我們的營業利益率。我們已經談了很多關於科技的話題，我們擁有屢獲殊榮的配對引擎，這讓我們能夠為客戶找到更優秀的候選人，為候選人找到更好的工作，而這正是他們雙方一直以來最關心的問題。

Further, we continue to work on making our recruiters and sales people more productive as we use AI to prioritize the leads and how they address them. We also use gen AI to help pull together from various sources the information about a given company, both internal and external that they use and leverage when they're making those calls to those leads that have been rank ordered.

此外，我們繼續努力提高招募人員和銷售人員的工作效率，利用人工智慧來確定銷售線索的優先順序以及他們如何處理這些線索。我們還利用人工智慧生成技術，從各種來源（包括內部和外部）收集特定公司的信息，以便他們在打電話給已按排名排序的潛在客戶時使用和利用這些資訊。

And so the combination of all of those things together with Protiviti, as we just said, which we believe is a long-term double-digit operating margin business, and you don't have to look back very far to see examples of that. We think we have the opportunity and the possibility to actually have higher operating margins over the next cycle.

因此，正如我們剛才所說，將所有這些因素與 Protiviti 結合起來，我們相信 Protiviti 是一家長期保持兩位數營業利潤率的企業，而且你不需要回顧太久就能看到這方面的例子。我們認為，在下一個週期中，我們有機會和可能性實現更高的營業利潤率。

Keith. That's helpful. And then I got a couple of questions recently, I guess, on your public sector business. Just maybe first, anything you could say on the size of that public sector revenue today would be great. And then I know you don't have much exposure to the federal government. But is there any impact at all you'd see from the government shutdown here, whether it's maybe funding for state and local programs or anything we should be aware of?

基思。那很有幫助。最近我收到了一些關於您在公共部門業務方面的問題。首先，您能否談談目前公共部門的收入規模？而且我知道你對聯邦政府了解不多。但是，政府停擺會對我們這裡造成任何影響嗎？例如州和地方計畫的資金，或其他我們應該注意的事情？

So size, to federal government is less than half of 1% of our revenue. We see no meaningful impact whatsoever from the shutdown so far and frankly, don't expect one to be. If you add state and local to federal, I think we're around 4% of revenue to size of that. And so all forms of government together are mid -- a little less than mid-single digit, and the federal less than half of 1%.

因此，對聯邦政府而言，規模不到我們收入的0.5%。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到停工產生任何實質影響，坦白說，我們也不指望會產生任何影響。如果把州和地方財政收入加到聯邦財政收入裡，我認為我們的財政收入大約只佔聯邦財政收入的 4%。因此，所有形式的政府加起來佔比中等——略低於個位數中段，而聯邦政府佔不到 1%。

George Tong, Goldman Sachs.

喬治唐，高盛集團。

You mentioned weekly trends in contract talent revenues began to grow sequentially in September and October. Can you specify what that weekly sequential rate of growth was over that time frame and if the trends were linear?

您提到，9 月和 10 月合約人才收入的周度趨勢開始較上季成長。能否具體說明該時段內每週的連續成長率是多少，以及該趨勢是否呈線性？

Well, if you take September, early October, there's about a between 1.5% and 2% sequential growth rate, which is why I said earlier, if you just take that run rate and extrapolate to the full first -- fourth quarter, then we would have that as essentially cushion relative to our fourth quarter guidance.

嗯，如果你看看 9 月到 10 月初，環比成長率大約在 1.5% 到 2% 之間，這就是為什麼我之前說，如果你把這個成長率推算到整個第一季到第四季度，那麼相對於我們第四季的預期，我們基本上就有了緩衝空間。

Okay. And then separately, there have been instances of several large enterprises automating their finance departments with AI and in some cases, realizing 50% plus labor cost savings. To what extent would you see that as a risk for Robert Half going forward?

好的。此外，還有一些大型企業利用人工智慧實現財務部門自動化，在某些情況下，實現了超過 50% 的人工成本節省。您認為這對羅伯特·哈夫未來的發展會構成多大的風險？

Well, there are views all over a lot on the impact of AI. I'm sure you know MIT did a study that said that only 5% of the companies currently using gen AI were seeing any ROI so far. Our observation would be historically that those types of changes take a whole lot longer than what our first thought to be the case, and it would certainly be my view that that would also be the case here with gen AI.

關於人工智慧的影響，各方觀點不一。我相信您也知道，麻省理工學院曾做過一項研究，結果表明，目前使用人工智慧技術的公司中，只有 5% 的公司看到了投資回報。從歷史經驗來看，這類變化所需的時間比我們最初預想的要長得多，而且我認為，人工智慧的發展也必然如此。

We have a view into that with our Protiviti clients that happen to be large enterprises. And I can assure you the consensus experience they're seeing with their clients is nowhere in the same country, much less local ZIP code, as the kind of productivity gains they're seeing from gen AI so far relative to their own productivity.

我們從Protiviti的客戶（剛好都是大型企業）身上看到了這一點。我可以向你保證，他們從客戶那裡獲得的共識體驗，在同一個國家，甚至在同一個郵遞區號區域內，都無法與他們迄今為止從人工智慧技術中獲得的生產力提升相提並論，更遑論與他們自身的生產力提升相提並論。

And so my observation would be, as verified by several studies, and further, as it relates to impact to jobs in the last 60-to-90 days, in fact, there were big studies by Stanford, Harvard and Yale. Stanford says, AI impact is for early career, entry-level people that more experienced roles remain stable. Harvard says gen AI reducing entry-level hiring while increasing reliance on senior talent. Yale says broader labor market has not experienced any discernible disruption from gen AI.

因此，我的觀察是，正如幾項研究所證實的那樣，而且，就過去 60 到 90 天對就業的影響而言，事實上，史丹佛大學、哈佛大學和耶魯大學都進行了大型研究。史丹佛大學表示，人工智慧的影響主要體現在職涯初期和入門級員工身上，而經驗更豐富的員工的職位則保持穩定。哈佛大學表示，人工智慧世代正在減少入門招聘，同時增加對資深人才的依賴。耶魯大學表示，更廣泛的勞動市場尚未受到人工智慧帶來的任何明顯衝擊。

And so I guess my point would be as to impact to labor overall, impact for us, accounting and finance talent overall, we've seen very little impact. My view is there's a lot of upside longer term. But shorter term, I think the trends that I've quoted and that we've seen, including through our client wins, the gains are modest, if any, if at all so far. We're not AI doomers. We ourselves use it. Nor are we AI boomers. And I'd say 50% productivity gains in the short term, I would put in the AI boomer category, which isn't representative of the kind of ROI statistics I see and read.

所以我想說的是，就對整體勞動市場的影響，對我們會計和財務人才的影響而言，我們看到的影響非常小。我認為從長遠來看，它還有很大的上漲空間。但就短期而言，我認為我所引用的以及我們所看到的趨勢，包括透過我們贏得的客戶案例，到目前為止，收益即使有，也只是微乎其微。我們並非人工智慧末日論者。我們自己也在用。我們也不是人工智慧時代的嬰兒潮世代。我認為短期內生產力提高 50% 屬於人工智慧嬰兒潮世代的範疇，但這與我看到和讀到的投資回報率統計數據並不相符。

Kevin McVeigh, UBS.

凱文麥克維，瑞銀集團。

Great. And helpful commentary on the Q1. If you look at the seasonal sequential kind of trends from an EPS perspective, it's averaged like $0.27, I think, sequentially from Q4 to Q1. Is that a fair way to think about dimensionalizing the start to '26? Or would you expect less leverage just given where kind of the base earnings are in Q4? Just because you did talk about Q1 a little bit. And I know you typically don't go out two quarters, but just to try to get a sense of framing the Q1 as we think about '26 is where I want to start.

偉大的。以及對 Q1 的有益評論。如果從每股收益的角度來看季節性的連續趨勢，我認為從第四季度到第一季度，平均每季度增長約 0.27 美元。這種思考方式是否能合理地將「26」的開始量化？或者，考慮到第四季度的基本獲利狀況，您是否預期槓桿率會降低？因為你確實稍微談到了Q1。我知道你們通常不會討論兩個季度，但我想從我們思考 2026 年時的第一季度開始，以此來了解第一季度的情況。

Well, sequentially, there's a meaningful impact, which is why we called it out. And so to have sequential impacts in the $0.20 per share impact, that's not unusual. And if you don't have to look back very far, I mean since 2023, that's what we've been seeing, which was why we called it out so that everybody understands that, that's what's normal based on history. Q1 is below point because of Protiviti's seasonal circumstances that we described in our remarks.

嗯，從順序上看，這會產生顯著影響，所以我們才指出來。因此，每股盈餘出現 0.20 美元的連續性影響，這並不罕見。如果你不必回顧太久遠的歷史，我的意思是，從 2023 年開始，我們就看到了這種情況，所以我們才指出這一點，以便每個人都能理解，根據歷史，這才是正常的。Q1 低於點數是因為 Protiviti 的季節性情況，我們在評論中已經描述了這一點。

No, that's helpful. And then just to follow up on George's question. When you think about the gen AI relative to the adjustments in temp the last couple two-, third years, was that adjustments from COVID or just the pressure you're seeing -- and I'm not seeing Robert Half specific, but across the temp industry?

不，這很有幫助。然後，我想就喬治的問題做個後續回答。當你考慮到人工智慧與過去兩三年臨時工調整之間的關係時，你認為這些調整是新冠疫情帶來的，還是只是你看到的這種壓力——我指的不是羅伯特·哈夫公司，而是整個臨時工行業？

Kevin, I'd say this. We did with our data science group, we did a deep dive, looking back for the last three years. We analyzed the results from our roles that are vulnerable based on the World Economic Forum, which are the customer service, the coders, the lower-level operational-level positions, and we looked at that in very granular detail and found that it performed no differently than the rest.

凱文，我會這麼說。我們和數據科學團隊一起進行了深入研究，回顧了過去三年的情況。我們分析了世界經濟論壇認定的易受影響職位（即客戶服務、程式設計師、低層營運職位）的業績，並進行了非常細緻的分析，發現這些職位的表現與其他職位並無二致。

Further, NFIB did their own study, and 98% of their constituent said, AI had no impact on their number of employees. And now you look at Stanford, Harvard, Yale and basically saying to the extent there's been an impact, it's on early career, entry-level people. Well, guess what? That's not our business. Our clients won't pay us to get for them early career, entry-level people because they can do that themselves. They don't need us for that.

此外，NFIB 也進行了自己的研究，98% 的成員表示，人工智慧對他們的員工人數沒有影響。現在看看史丹佛大學、哈佛大學、耶魯大學，基本上可以說，如果有什麼影響的話，那就是對職業生涯早期、入門級的人員產生了影響。你猜怎麼著？那不關我們的事。我們的客戶不會花錢讓我們幫他們尋找處於職涯早期或入門級的人才，因為他們自己就能做到。他們不需要我們做這件事。

And so to the extent that's where there's an impact has been, it's easier to understand or it certainly confirms our own internal studies that there's no impact from that. And so you then say, look, okay, well, then why has the industry been down for three years? And that's where I come back to, let's talk about churn. Well, let's look at JOLTs. In October of '22, there were 6 million people hired, and there were 4 million people that quit. You roll that forward to August of '25, there were 5 million hires in the United States, and there were 3 million quits. And that's a huge difference.

因此，如果這方面確實產生了影響，那麼就更容易理解，或者說，這肯定證實了我們自己的內部研究，即這方面沒有產生任何影響。所以你就會說，好吧，那為什麼這個行業已經低迷了三年呢？所以我又回到了這個問題，我們來談談客戶流失吧。好，我們來看看 JOLT。2022 年 10 月，新增就業人數 600 萬，同時有 400 萬人離職。到 2025 年 8 月，美國新增就業 500 萬個，同時有 300 萬人離職。這可是天壤之別。

There's a lot less churn. That churn plus the job growth that has taken place in the United States have been concentrated in government, clinical health care, and leisure and hospitality. And those are not big consumers of contract temporary help for the industry and particularly for Robert Half. And so I feel about as confident as I feel with anything that AI has not contributed to what has happened so far, so far, either for the industry or for Robert Half.

人員流動率大大降低。美國發生的這種人員流動以及就業成長主要集中在政府、臨床醫療保健以及休閒和旅館業。而且這些公司並不是該行業，尤其是羅伯特·哈夫公司，需要大量合約臨時工的主要客戶。因此，我對人工智慧迄今為止對產業或羅伯特哈夫公司所取得的成就幾乎沒有任何貢獻，這一點我非常有信心。

And instead, it's about clients as they focused on their cumulative inflation issue, as they worry about all of these forecasts of recession, they become more cautious and juxtaposed against -- they want to keep their full-time staff, what's their first lever to control their cost? Fewer contractors. So the industry now is in year three of companies trying to keep -- retain their full-time staff, control their cost, and it's been primarily at the expense of their contractor usage. I think all those dots connect. But you don't need AI as an impact to connect them. It's less churn, it's narrow growth, not that applicable to the industry and/or Robert Half.

相反，它關注的是客戶的累積通膨問題，他們擔心所有這些關於經濟衰退的預測，變得更加謹慎，並且與之形成鮮明對比的是——他們想要保留全職員工，他們控製成本的首要手段是什麼？承包商數量減少。因此，該行業現在已經進入了第三年，各公司都在努力留住全職員工，控製成本，而這主要是以犧牲外包人員的使用為代價的。我認為這些點都能連結起來。但你並不需要人工智慧來將它們連結起來。人員流動較少，成長範圍狹窄，較不適用於該行業和/或 Robert Half 公司。

Jeff Silber, BMO Capital Markets.

Jeff Silber，BMO資本市場。

I want to return to some of the earlier discussion on capital allocation. Can you just remind us what your policy is regarding whether you were going to refer to shares or dividends? What are the drivers for making those decisions?

我想回到之前關於資本配置的一些討論。您能否再次提醒我們一下，貴公司對於您指的是股份還是股利的政策是什麼？做出這些決定的驅動因素是什麼？

And so it's actually very simple. We look at our free cash flow after we've taken care of our business, including capital expenditures, the small kind of tuck-in acquisitions that we've done a few of, particularly with Protiviti. So we start with free cash flow. We say, first, step one, we'd like to grow our dividend, that takes the first -- that's the first call on that free cash flow and the residual, what's left, has been for repurchases. And we've done that for 20-, 25 years uninterrupted, and that's still where we are.

所以其實很簡單。我們在處理完業務之後，包括資本支出、我們進行的一些小型收購（特別是與 Protiviti 的收購），會查看我們的自由現金流。所以我們先從自由現金流說起。我們說，首先，第一步，我們希望提高股息，這首先需要動用自由現金流，而剩餘的資金則用於股票回購。我們已經連續20到25年這樣做了，而且我們現在仍然堅持這樣做。

But what that means is, with today's free cash flow, the dividend is taking most of that leaving little for repurchases, which is unfortunate at these prices, and that hurts. That said, we've never believed the nature of our business is such that we ought to lever up. Instead, we've had a very conservative fortress balance sheet, and we sleep well with that.

但這意味著，以目前的自由現金流來看，股利佔用了大部分資金，留給股票回購的資金就很少了，這在目前的股價下是件壞事，而且會造成損失。也就是說，我們從未認為我們業務的本質決定了我們應該增加槓桿。相反，我們一直保持著非常保守且穩健的資產負債表，對此我們感到很放心。

Okay. That's helpful. If I could just ask a couple of numbers questions. I know you usually put this in your Q, but I was hoping you can tell us from your contract talent solutions perspective, what was the year-over-year change in the number of hours work in average hourly in rates? And also what is your billing days by quarter for 2026?

好的。那很有幫助。如果我能問幾個關於數字的問題就好了。我知道您通常會在問答中提到這一點，但我希望您能從合約人才解決方案的角度告訴我們，與去年相比，平均時薪的工作小時數發生了怎樣的變化？另外，你們2026年每季的帳單結算天數是多少？

So Bill, so when you ask for rates, are you talking kind of gap, not adjusted to normalize for all the differences we talked about? Or we talked about our billing rate already being up 3 7 -- 3.7%.

所以比爾，當你詢問利率時，你指的是那種差距，而不是根據我們討論過的所有差異進行調整後的差距嗎？或者我們討論過我們的計費率已經上漲了 3.7%——3.7%。

Okay. That's fine. What about the average hourly work, again, the number that you reported in your Q?

好的。沒關係。那麼，您在問題中提到的平均時薪是多少呢？

I don't have that --

我沒有那個。--

The number of hours of work.

工作小時數。

Right. I don't have that in front of me. Clearly, will be in shortly. But don't have that at this moment. As to billing days, my team here has handed me a note that says Q1, 61.9 days; Q2, 63.1 days; Q3, 64.6 days; and Q4, 61.1 days.

正確的。我手邊沒有那個東西。顯然，很快就會到。但目前我還沒有那個。至於計費天數，我的團隊遞給我一張紙條，上面寫著：第一季 61.9 天；第二季 63.1 天；第三季 64.6 天；第四季 61.1 天。

Kartik Mehta, Northcoast Research.

Kartik Mehta，北海岸研究公司。

Keith, I know you've talked a lot about Protiviti and it being a double-digit operating margin business and it's getting there. I'm wondering more in the near term, what the incremental margins are. I don't know if you look at capacity, how you look at it. But just for the near term, how would you look at incremental margins for that business?

Keith，我知道你多次談到 Protiviti，說它是一家營業利潤率達到兩位數的公司，而且它正在朝著這個目標邁進。我更想知道的是，短期內增量利潤是多少。我不知道你從容量的角度來看這個問題。但就短期而言，您如何看待該業務的增量利潤？

I'd say for 2026, we'd be disappointed if we can't get between 100 basis points and 200 basis points of additional gross margin, maybe with some upside. But a combination of all the things we've talked about, the nature of the projects, the mix of the staff assigned to the projects, the kind of attention or even more focus on costs generally starting with staff.

我認為，到 2026 年，如果我們不能獲得 100 到 200 個基點的額外毛利率，我們會感到失望，或許還有一些成長空間。但是，我們討論的所有因素綜合起來，包括專案的性質、分配給專案的人員組成、對成本的關注程度，甚至對成本的更多關注，通常都是從人員配備開始的。

And so we're not going to get back to double digit overnight. Not going to get back to double digit more than likely in 2026, but we ought to make substantial progress toward that, and you got to start somewhere.

因此，我們不可能一夕之間恢復到兩位數。2026年不太可能恢復到兩位數，但我們應該朝著這個目標取得實質進展，而總要有個開始。

Makes sense. Just from a bigger-picture capital allocation standpoint, Keith. I know obviously, there are sensitivities around the dividend, but you seem pretty confident in your free cash flow. And you obviously have $300 million of cash on the balance sheet. Any thought of using a portion of that to buy back stock considering where we are from a price standpoint?

有道理。基思，就從更宏觀的資本配置角度來看。我知道股息方面存在一些敏感因素，但你似乎對你的自由現金流相當有信心。顯然，你們的資產負債表上擁有 3 億美元的現金。考慮到我們目前的股價狀況，有沒有考慮過用部分資金回購股票？

As I said earlier, it hurts not to buy more stock at current prices, it hurts. I mean, trust me, it hurts. That said, we're committed to our dividend. And we will remain committed to our dividend. And therefore, there's a smaller residual starting with our free cash flow left for repurchases. So we've always committed to return our free cash flow to shareholders. We continue to do that.

正如我之前所說，不以當前價格買入更多股票真的讓人很遺憾，很遺憾。我的意思是，相信我，這很痛。儘管如此，我們仍會按計劃派發股息。我們將繼續履行派息承諾。因此，用於回購的自由現金流所剩無幾。因此，我們始終致力於將自由現金流回饋給股東。我們會繼續這樣做。

The mix of dividends repurchases is heavily weighted to our dividends given the historical compounding since we started paying the dividends, I think it was in 2004. I get it, trust me. I feel your pain. But as I said earlier as well, we don't think the nature of this business is such that you ought to lever it up.

鑑於自我們開始支付股息以來（我記得是從 2004 年開始）的歷史複利效應，股息回購的組合中很大程度上側重於我們的股息。我明白，相信我。我能體會你的痛苦。但正如我之前所說，我們認為這項業務的本質決定了你不應該利用槓桿。

Tobey Sommer, Truist Securities.

Tobey Sommer，Truist Securities。

This is Henry on for Tobey. To start just looking at Protiviti. Revenue is up about 1% sequentially. But can you just discuss within that how the financial services segment performed and then the runway you see into next quarter and then 2026 from the strong capital markets right now?

這是亨利替托比上場。先來看看Protiviti。營收季增約1%。但您能否就此談談金融服務板塊的表現，以及您認為在當前強勁的資本市場環境下，下一季乃至2026年的發展前景如何？

Well, with Protiviti for financial services to be 40% to 50% of Protiviti, it's hard for its trend to be that different from the overall trend. And we feel good about financial services. It performed well in the third quarter. Frankly, the strength was spread across its major solution areas as we mentioned before. But we're positive. We feel good.

鑑於 Protiviti 的金融服務業務佔 Protiviti 的 40% 到 50%，其發展趨勢很難與整體趨勢有太大差異。我們對金融服務業充滿信心。第三季表現良好。坦白說，正如我們之前提到的，它的優勢分散在其主要解決方案領域。但我們持樂觀態度。我們感覺很好。

This project -- large project -- small project issue we've been discussing, that's true, very much true in financial services. Some of these very, very large projects were in financial services, and we're backfilling with smaller projects in financial services. And so financial services is clearly impacted by that trend. And as I said, when financial services is as big a part of the whole as it is, it's kind of hard for the overall trend not to be the financial services trend.

我們一直在討論的這個項目——大項目——小項目的問題，在金融服務領域確實如此。這些規模非常非常大的項目中有一些是金融服務領域的，我們正在用規模較小的金融服務項目來填補這些空缺。因此，金融服務業顯然受到了這一趨勢的影響。正如我所說，當金融服務在整體中佔據如此重要的地位時，整體趨勢很難不成為金融服務的趨勢。

Understood. And just moving a little bit, can you discuss any difference right now in current trends between your enterprise customers and SMB customers? Are those different cohorts discussing different things to increase their business confidence in the current climate?

明白了。再稍微轉換一下主題，能否談談目前您的企業客戶和中小企業客戶在發展趨勢上是否有任何差異？在當前環境下，不同群體是否在討論不同的主題來增強他們的商業信心？

And it has been true for several quarters, our enterprise clients have better results than do our SMB clients, and that's not unusual. And that's further evidenced by Protiviti's growth rates have been more resilient than our talent solution rates. But if you do split out talent solutions, enterprise and for us, enterprise means mid-cap, typically $4 billion to $6 billion in revenues for our mid-cap. And that's been more resilient than has SMB, and that's always been the case.

這種情況已經持續了好幾個季度，我們的企業客戶業績比中小企業客戶更好，這並不罕見。Protiviti 的成長率比我們的人才解決方案成長率更具韌性，這也進一步證明了這一點。但如果你把人才解決方案、企業（對我們來說，企業指的是中型企業，通常我們的中型企業收入在 40 億至 60 億美元之間）分開來看。而且，大型企業比中小企業更具韌性，一直以來都是如此。

On the flip side, when things turn around, you'll see SMBs will outgrow, and they'll react more quickly. And so more resilient is good at times like these, less resilient or more quickly impacted will be a good thing on the upside.

另一方面，當情況好轉時，你會發現中小企業會發展壯大，並且反應會更快。因此，在這樣的時期，更具韌性是好事；韌性較弱或更容易受到影響，從正面的角度來看也是件好事。

Okay. So that was our last question. We appreciate you joining us today. Thank you very much.

好的。這是我們的最後一個問題。感謝您今天蒞臨。非常感謝。

Thank you. And this concludes today's teleconference. If you missed any part of the call, it will be archived in audio format in the Investor Center of Robert Half's website at roberthalf.com. You can also log into the conference call replay details are contained in the company's press release issued earlier today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。如果您錯過了電話會議的任何部分，會議錄音將以音訊格式存檔在 Robert Half 網站 (roberthalf.com) 的投資者中心。您也可以登入查看會議重播詳情，詳情請參閱本公司今天稍早發布的新聞稿。