美國再保險集團 (RGA) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Reinsurance Group of America Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Todd Larson, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please [go ahead].

歡迎參加美國再保險集團 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給高級執行副總裁兼財務長 Todd Larson。請繼續]。

Thank you. Welcome to RGA's Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. I'm joined on the call this morning with Tony Cheng, RGA's President and Chief Executive Officer; Leslie Barbi, Chief Investment Officer; and Jonathan Porter, Chief Risk Officer.

謝謝。歡迎參加 RGA 2023 年第四季電話會議。今天早上我與 RGA 總裁兼執行長 Tony Cheng 一起參加了電話會議。巴比 (Leslie Barbi)，首席投資長；和首席風險長喬納森·波特。

A quick reminder before we get started regarding forward-looking information and non-GAAP financial measures. Some of our comments or answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from expected results. Please refer to the earnings release we issued yesterday for a list of important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expected results.

在我們開始之前快速提醒一下前瞻性資訊和非公認會計準則財務指標。我們對您問題的一些評論或回答可能包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與預期結果有重大差異。請參閱我們昨天發布的收益報告，以了解可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異的重要因素清單。

Additionally, during the course of this call, the information we provide may include non-GAAP financial measures. Please see our earnings release, earnings presentation and quarterly financial supplement all of which are posted on our website for a discussion of these terms and reconciliations to GAAP measures. Throughout the call, we will be referencing slides from the earnings presentation, which again is posted on our website. And now I'll turn the call over to Tony for his comments.

此外，在本次電話會議期間，我們提供的資訊可能包括非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們網站上發布的收益發布、收益演示和季度財務補充，以討論這些條款以及與 GAAP 措施的對帳。在整個電話會議中，我們將參考收益簡報中的投影片，該簡報再次發佈在我們的網站上。現在我將把電話轉給托尼徵求他的意見。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Last night, we reported adjusted operating earnings for the fourth quarter of $4.73 per share, and for the full year of $19.88 per share. Our adjusted operating ROE, excluding notable items, was 14.4% for the year. The quarter included favorable investment and very strong GFS results along with strong organic new business and in-force transaction volume. Our underwriting experience was in line with expectations across the enterprise. This capped off a very strong year.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。昨晚，我們公佈第四季度調整後營運收益為每股 4.73 美元，全年營運收益為每股 19.88 美元。剔除重要項目後，我們調整後的全年營運淨資產收益率為 14.4%。本季包括有利的投資和非常強勁的 GFS 業績，以及強勁的有機新業務和有效交易量。我們的承保經驗符合整個企業的預期。這為非常強勁的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。

We are excited with the great momentum in our business with our global platform, positioning us for continued growth and success. We entered 2023 with the priorities of delivering on earnings and ROE targets as well as accelerating our new business growth all while taking an active and balanced approach to capital management. We have delivered on all these three priorities: Firstly, we produced record EPS and strong ROE results; Second, as measured by our internal metrics, we produced a record level of new business value, which was up significantly from 2022. You will also see on Slide 17 in the earnings presentation that the value of business subject to LDTI increased by more than $3 billion in 2023, primarily attributable to new business won during the year.

我們對全球平台業務的強勁勢頭感到興奮，這為我們的持續成長和成功奠定了基礎。進入 2023 年，我們的首要任務是實現獲利和股本回報率目標，並加速新業務成長，同時採取積極、平衡的資本管理方法。我們已經實現了所有這三個優先事項：首先，我們創造了創紀錄的每股盈餘和強勁的股本回報率結果；其次，根據我們的內部指標衡量，我們創造了創紀錄的新業務價值水平，較2022 年大幅上升。您還將在收益簡報的幻燈片17 中看到，受LDTI 影響的業務價值增加了3 美元以上2023 年將實現 10 億美元，主要歸因於年內贏得的新業務。

In addition to the volume, I am also very pleased with the breadth and quality of the new business we delivered. We had strong results across many of our businesses and geographies with a significant percentage of our new business under exclusive arrangements. These types of arrangements create greater strategic value, which gets shared between our clients and RGA.

除了數量之外，我對我們交付的新業務的廣度和品質感到非常滿意。我們在許多業務和地區都取得了強勁的業績，其中很大一部分新業務是透過獨家安排進行的。這些類型的安排創造了更大的策略價值，並由我們的客戶和 RGA 分享。

And the third priority we delivered on was our active and balanced capital management. During the quarter, we deployed $346 million of capital into in-force transactions, bringing the year-to-date total to a record $933 million. We were active across the globe with the U.S., Asia and EMEA, all contributing to our in-force transaction success. In addition to supporting our clients through deploying capital into our business, we also returned $419 million to shareholders via dividends and buybacks during the year. Finally, we launched Ruby Re, further diversifying our sources of capital to fund our exciting future growth.

我們實現的第三個重點是積極、平衡的資本管理。本季度，我們在有效交易中投入了 3.46 億美元的資金，使年初至今的總資金達到創紀錄的 9.33 億美元。我們在全球範圍內積極開展業務，包括美國、亞洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區，所有這些都為我們有效交易的成功做出了貢獻。除了透過將資本部署到我們的業務中來支持客戶之外，我們還透過股息和回購在這一年向股東返還了 4.19 億美元。最後，我們推出了 Ruby Re，進一步豐富了我們的資本來源，為我們令人興奮的未來成長提供資金。

Our optimism for the future is fueled by our continued success in our four areas of notable growth that we have previously communicated. Starting with our longevity and PRT business. In the U.S. PRT market, we closed our third transaction. In a very short period of time, we have established ourselves as an active and key player in this market, and we are optimistic about our prospects going forward.

我們之前提到的四個顯著成長領域的持續成功增強了我們對未來的樂觀態度。從我們的長壽和 PRT 業務開始。在美國 PRT 市場，我們完成了第三筆交易。在很短的時間內，我們已成為該市場的活躍和關鍵參與者，並且我們對未來的前景感到樂觀。

In the U.K. longevity space, where RGA is a clear market leader, the team has had an outstanding year, innovating in various segments of the longevity market. Based upon the current environment for global longevity business, we expect 2024 to be another very active and productive year.

在英國長壽領域，RGA 是明顯的市場領導者，該團隊度過了出色的一年，在長壽市場的各個領域進行了創新。根據目前全球長壽業務的環境，我們預計 2024 年將是另一個非常活躍和富有成效的一年。

In our Asia Traditional segment, we continue to see positive results, bringing product development and underwriting solutions to our clients to help fuel their growth and share in their success.

在我們的亞洲傳統業務領域，我們繼續取得積極成果，為客戶帶來產品開發和核保解決方案，幫助推動他們的成長並分享他們的成功。

In China, in the fourth quarter, we launched a simplified issue medical product with a major insurer to complement the successful critical onus product we spoke about during Investor Day. In Hong Kong, we launched a product with a market leader to provide a more inclusive form of critical owners to individuals that could not previously gain coverage. This supports our purpose of making financial protection accessible to all whilst furthering our business strategy.

在中國，第四季度，我們與一家大型保險公司合作推出了簡化版醫療產品，以補充我們在投資者日談到的成功的關鍵責任產品。在香港，我們與市場領導者合作推出了一款產品，為以前無法獲得保險的個人提供更具包容性的關鍵所有者形式。這支持了我們為所有人提供財務保護的目標，同時進一步推進我們的業務策略。

In our third area of notable growth, the asset-intensive business in Asia we executed transactions that combined our strength of product development with coinsurance and continued to innovate across the region to support a very active transaction pipeline.

在我們顯著成長的第三個領域，即亞洲的資產密集型業務中，我們執行的交易將我們的產品開發優勢與共同保險相結合，並繼續在整個地區進行創新，以支持非常活躍的交易渠道。

And finally, in U.S. Traditional, we closed some nice in-force blocks in Q4 and also partnered with our clients and distribution entities to drive profitable new business growth. As announced, we also made an investment to further our capabilities to support clients in digital underwriting and fulfill their purpose of closing the protection gap in the middle market.

最後，在美國傳統業務中，我們在第四季度關閉了一些有效的區塊，並與我們的客戶和分銷實體合作，推動可獲利的新業務成長。正如所宣布的，我們還進行了一項投資，以增強我們為客戶提供數位承保支援的能力，並實現他們縮小中間市場保護差距的目標。

I would be remiss not to also mention the collective group of all our other businesses where we have incredibly talented teams and market-leading positions. For example, we were able to finalize an attractive asset intensive transaction in the U.S. due to our long-term client relationship and reputation for execution certainty. In addition, we announced yesterday an asset transaction in Belgium, and we are hopeful of seeing other transactions across Europe, similar to what we have seen in Asia and North America.

如果我不提及我們所有其他業務的集體集團，那就是我的失職，我們擁有非常有才華的團隊和市場領先地位。例如，由於我們的長期客戶關係和執行確定性的聲譽，我們能夠在美國完成一項有吸引力的資產密集型交易。此外，我們昨天宣布了在比利時的一項資產交易，我們希望在歐洲看到其他交易，類似於我們在亞洲和北美看到的情況。

As proud as I am about all these accomplishments, I am even more excited about the future, building on our strong foundation created by the talent, expertise and integrity of all our people around the world. Reflecting this positive outlook, we have updated our financial targets, as shown on Slide 18. We have provided new earnings run rates and reiterated our intermediate EPS growth targets on this higher base. In addition, we increased our expected ROE range to 12% to 14%.

我對所有這些成就感到自豪，但我對未來更加興奮，未來將建立在我們世界各地員工的才華、專業知識和誠信所創造的堅實基礎上。為了反映這種積極的前景，我們更新了我們的財務目標，如幻燈片 18 所示。我們提供了新的盈利運行率，並在此較高基礎上重申了我們的中期每股收益增長目標。此外，我們將預期 ROE 範圍提高至 12% 至 14%。

I am clearly confident in our ability to continue to deliver growth at attractive returns to our shareholders for many years to come. Our growth prospects are built on our core principles of strong risk management combined with our entrepreneurial spirit to create new innovative solutions and share with our partners in their success. Thank you for your interest in RGA, I will now turn it over to Todd to discuss the financial results.

我對我們在未來許多年繼續實現成長並為股東帶來豐厚回報的能力充滿信心。我們的成長前景建立在強大的風險管理核心原則之上，結合我們的創業精神，創造新的創新解決方案並與我們的合作夥伴分享成功。感謝您對 RGA 的興趣，我現在將其交給 Todd 討論財務表現。

Thanks, Tony. Moving to the quarterly results, RGA reported pretax adjusted operating income of $386 million for the quarter and adjusted operating earnings per share of $4.73. For the full year, we reported record adjusted operating earnings per share of $19.88. For the year, adjusted operating return on equity, excluding notable items, was 14.4% we are very pleased with the strong results as well as very strong new business volumes and capital deployment. Investment results for the quarter remained favorable.

謝謝，托尼。接下來是季度業績，RGA 報告本季稅前調整後營業收入為 3.86 億美元，調整後每股營業收益為 4.73 美元。全年調整後每股營業收益創歷史新高，達 19.88 美元。今年，調整後的營運股本回報率（不包括顯著項目）為 14.4%，我們對強勁的業績以及非常強勁的新業務量和資本部署感到非常滿意。本季的投資結果依然良好。

Reported premiums were up 19.2% for the quarter. For the year, premiums totaled $15.1 billion, representing an increase of 16.3% on a constant currency basis. The increase includes $500 million in premium from a U.S. PRT transaction in the fourth quarter, PRT premiums for the full year totaled $1.5 billion. As Tony mentioned, we have strong momentum in new business activity and expect to continue to see attractive premium growth over time.

該季度報告保費上漲 19.2%。全年保費總額達 151 億美元，以固定匯率計算成長 16.3%。其中包括第四季美國 PRT 交易產生的 5 億美元保費，全年 PRT 保費總計 15 億美元。正如托尼所提到的，我們的新業務活動勢頭強勁，預計隨著時間的推移，保費將繼續出現有吸引力的成長。

The effective tax rate for the quarter was 18.2% on pretax adjusted operating income. Below the expected range, primarily due to the distribution of earnings across the globe and generation of certain tax credits. The effective tax rate for the full year was 21.5% on pretax adjusted operating income.

本季稅前調整後營業收入的實際稅率為 18.2%。低於預期範圍，主要是由於全球範圍內的收益分配和某些稅收抵免的產生。全年稅前調整後營業收入的有效稅率為21.5%。

Turning to the quarterly segment results, starting on Slide 7 in our earnings presentation. The U.S. and Latin America Traditional segment results reflected favorable group and individual health experience and slightly unfavorable claims experience and client reporting adjustments in individual life which had a larger financial impact due to the mix of experience between capped and uncapped cohorts. As we've previously discussed, under LDTI, experience on cap cohorts as reported in the current period. For uncapped cohorts, a portion of the underlying mortality experience is reported in the current period earnings and the remaining experience is spread into the future periods.

轉向季度部門業績，從我們收益簡報中的幻燈片 7 開始。美國和拉丁美洲傳統細分市場的結果反映了良好的團體和個人健康體驗以及稍微不利的索賠體驗和個人生活中的客戶報告調整，由於上限和無上限群體之間的經驗混合，這產生了更大的財務影響。正如我們之前在 LDTI 下討論的，本期報告的上限隊列的經驗。對於無上限隊列，部分基本死亡率經驗在當期收益中報告，其餘經驗則分攤到未來期間。

On a year-to-date basis, the underlying experience in the Individual Life business was favorable. The U.S. asset-intensive business results were strong reflecting higher investment spreads, including those on floating rate securities. And our Capital Solutions business continues to perform in line with our expectations. The Canada traditional results reflected unfavorable group claims experience and impact from a onetime item of approximately $8 million. The Financial Solutions business reflected favorable longevity experience.

年初至今，個人人壽業務的基本狀況良好。美國資產密集型業務績效強勁，反映出投資利差上升，包括浮動利率證券的投資利差。我們的資本解決方案業務的表現持續符合我們的預期。加拿大的傳統結果反映了不利的團體索賠經驗以及約 800 萬加元一次性項目的影響。金融解決方案業務反映了良好的長壽體驗。

In the Europe, Middle East and Africa segment, the traditional business results reflected unfavorable mortality experience, most of which was recognized in the current quarter. This was partially offset by a positive impact from new business in Continental Europe. EMEA's Financial Solutions business reflect results reflected favorable longevity and other experience, including improvements in reporting.

在歐洲、中東和非洲市場，傳統業務業績反映了不利的死亡率經歷，其中大部分在本季度得到了確認。這被歐洲大陸新業務的正面影響部分抵消。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的金融解決方案業務所反映的結果反映了良好的壽命和其他經驗，包括報告方面的改進。

Turning to our Asia Pacific traditional business. Results reflected favorable underlying claims experience, a small portion of which was recognized in the current period. Asia Pacific Financial Solutions business reflected favorable investment spreads and strong new business. The Corporate and Other segment reported a pretax adjusted operating loss of $23 million. Less than the expected quarterly range, primarily due to higher investment income.

轉向我們亞太地區的傳統業務。業績反映了良好的基礎索賠經驗，其中一小部分在本期得到了確認。亞太金融解決方案業務反映出有利的投資利差和強勁的新業務。公司及其他部門報告稅前調整後營運虧損為 2,300 萬美元。低於預期季度區間，主要是由於投資收益較高。

Moving on to investments on Slides 10 through 13. The non-spread portfolio yield for the quarter was 4.86%, reflecting higher yields. For the non-spread business, our new money rate rose to 6.65%, reflecting a higher allocation to private assets in the quarter. Credit impairments were minimal and we believe the portfolio is well positioned as we move through ongoing economic uncertainties.

繼續討論投影片 10 至 13 的投資。本季的非利差投資組合收益率為 4.86%，反映了較高的收益率。對於非利差業務，我們的新貨幣利率上升至6.65%，反映出本季私人資產的配置增加。信用減損很小，我們相信，在我們應對持續的經濟不確定性時，該投資組合處於有利位置。

Related to capital management, as shown on Slides 14 and 15, our capital and liquidity positions remain strong. We ended the quarter with excess capital of approximately $1 billion. In the quarter, we deployed $346 million of capital into in-force transactions bringing the year-to-date total to a record $933 million. In the quarter, we also returned a total of $106 million of capital to shareholders through $50 million of share repurchases and $56 million in dividends. We expect to remain active in deploying capital into attractive growth opportunities in our organic flow and in-force block transactions and returning excess capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

與資本管理相關，如投影片 14 和 15 所示，我們的資本和流動性狀況仍然強勁。本季結束時，我們的剩餘資本約為 10 億美元。本季度，我們在有效交易中投入了 3.46 億美元的資金，使年初至今的總資金達到創紀錄的 9.33 億美元。本季度，我們也透過 5,000 萬美元的股票回購和 5,600 萬美元的股息向股東返還了總計 1.06 億美元的資本。我們預計將繼續積極地將資本部署到我們的有機流動和有效大宗交易中有吸引力的成長機會，並透過股息和股票回購將多餘資本返還給股東。

As Tony previously mentioned, during the quarter, we successfully launched Ruby Re, a Missouri domiciled third-party reinsurance company. Alternative capital has been part of RGA's capital management strategy for a long time, and Ruby Re is another source of capital to support our growth.

正如托尼之前提到的，在本季度，我們成功推出了 Ruby Re，一家位於密蘇裡州的第三方再保險公司。另類資本​​長期以來一直是 RGA 資本管理策略的一部分，而 Ruby Re 是支持我們成長的另一個資本來源。

As part of the launch, RGA executed an initial retrocession of $2.5 billion of existing liabilities. During the year, we continued our long track record of increasing book value per share. As shown on Slide 16, our book value per share, excluding AOCI, increased to $144, which represents a compounded annual growth rate of 10.4% since the beginning of 2021.

作為啟動的一部分，RGA 執行了 25 億美元現有負債的初始轉分保。在這一年裡，我們繼續保持每股帳面價值成長的長期記錄。如投影片 16 所示，我們的每股帳面價值（不包括 AOCI）增加至 144 美元，這意味著自 2021 年初以來的複合年增長率為 10.4%。

A metric I want to highlight is the value of business subject to LDTI as presented on Slide 17. This represents expected unrealized underwriting margins which demonstrates the long-term value of this business. We introduced this metric back in June at our Investor Day. The unrealized underwriting margin is calculated as the expected present value our future premiums, less present value of claim benefits and treaty allowances for the part of our business with reserves subject to LDTI financial reporting. These values are derived from the cash flows used to determine reserves, which are based on current expectations and are reviewed as part of the annual audit. During 2023, this value increased to approximately $27 billion, up $3 billion or 15% from the end of 2022. The primary driver was the strong new business written during the year.

我想強調的一個指標是受 LDTI 影響的業務價值，如幻燈片 17 所示。這代表了預期的未實現承保利潤，顯示了該業務的長期價值。我們早在六月的投資者日就引進了這個指標。未實現承保保證金的計算方法為我們未來保費的預期現值減去索賠福利和條約津貼的現值，以及我們的業務部分的準備金受 LDTI 財務報告的影響。這些值來自用於確定準備金的現金流量，這些現金流量基於當前預期，並作為年度審計的一部分進行審查。 2023 年，這筆價值增至約 270 億美元，比 2022 年底增加 30 億美元，即 15%。主要驅動力是當年強勁的新業務。

To summarize, based on our current expectations, over $27 billion of pretax unrealized underwriting margin exists for the business that is already on our books. While these margins don't consider investment income or general expenses, they are expected to significantly contribute to future earnings. I want to emphasize again the current measure only contains business subject to LDTI and excludes certain asset-intensive and short duration business.

總而言之，根據我們目前的預期，我們帳上已有的業務存在超過 270 億美元的稅前未實現承保利潤。雖然這些利潤率不考慮投資收入或一般費用，但預計它們將對未來收益做出重大貢獻。我想再次強調，目前的措施僅包含受LDTI約束的業務，不包括某些資產密集和短期業務。

As we've discussed, 2023 was very strong for RGA and results were ahead of the intermediate term financial targets and run rates provided at our Investor Day. The primary drivers of the outperformance were favorable impacts of higher interest rates, strong new business and favorable experience. Considering these dynamics and the continued strength of our underlying business, we have updated our current run rates and reiterated our intermediate growth targets, as shown on Slide 18. We have also increased our intermediate return on equity target range to 12% to 14%. These updated run rates now represent the base from which we expect to achieve our intermediate growth targets.

正如我們所討論的，2023 年對於 RGA 來說非常強勁，其業績領先於我們投資者日提供的中期財務目標和運行率。業績優異的主要驅動因素是利率上升、新業務強勁和良好體驗的有利影響。考慮到這些動態以及我們基礎業務的持續強勁，我們更新了當前運行率並重申了我們的中期增長目標，如幻燈片18 所示。我們還將中期股本回報率目標範圍提高到12% 至14% 。這些更新的運行率現在代表了我們期望實現中期成長目標的基礎。

We believe these updates appropriately reflect our strong momentum and earnings power as we look to the future. We continue to see good opportunities across our geographies and business lines, and we are well positioned to execute on these opportunities and our strategic plan. We are very excited about the future and expect to deliver attractive returns to our shareholders. This concludes our prepared remarks, and we would now like to open it up for questions.

我們相信，這些更新適當地反映了我們展望未來的強勁勢頭和盈利能力。我們繼續在各個地區和業務領域看到良好的機會，並且我們有能力執行這些機會和我們的策略計劃。我們對未來感到非常興奮，並期望為股東帶來可觀的回報。我們準備好的發言到此結束，現在我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

I had a couple of questions first on just the difference between net and operating income. I think you had a decent amount of derivative losses and losses on sales of investments. So if you could just give us some color on what really drove each of those items?

我首先有幾個關於淨收入和營業收入之間差異的問題。我認為您有相當數量的衍生性商品損失和投資銷售損失。那麼您能否給我們一些真正推動這些項目的原因？

One -- Jimmy, it's Todd. One item is, I think what we refer to as [B36] of the embedded derivatives, that's on the funds withheld type reinsurance treaties that we've had over the years. So that had part of the impact. And then some of the derivatives that we use in some of our currency investment strategies had a negative impact. And then we had some capital losses as well.

一——吉米，我是托德。其中一項是，我認為我們所謂的嵌入衍生性商品的[B36]，也就是我們多年來簽訂的資金預扣型再保險條約。所以這產生了部分影響。然後我們在一些金錢投資策略中使用的一些衍生性商品產生了負面影響。然後我們也遭受了一些資本損失。

Okay. And the cap of losses on sales, are those related to repositioning of the portfolio on deals and stuff? Or is it just normal sales because of credit deterioration?

好的。銷售損失上限是否與交易等投資組合的重新定位有關？還是只是因為信用惡化而正常銷售？

It's Leslie. Yes, on the unrealized losses, it was things like extension trade, normal trading cash management and relative value. There was a few specific credit exposures you managed, but it's predominantly just normal course decisions and portfolio repositioning. And as you know, the portfolio market values are still somewhat below book value for people generally just because interest rates had risen so much in 2022 and into 2023.

這是萊斯利。是的，關於未實現損失，包括延期交易、正常交易現金管理和相對價值等。您管理了一些特定的信用風險，但主要只是正常的課程決策和作品集重新定位。如您所知，對於人們來說，投資組合的市場價值仍然略低於帳面價值，因為利率在 2022 年和 2023 年大幅上漲。

And then just on the portfolio as well. If I look at your new money yield, it was already pretty good. It went up even more in 3Q. And I think you're almost 300 basis points above their 10-year treasury yield is. So you mentioned private that you're doing a lot more privates, but the yield seems very high. So just talk about what it is that you're investing in and your comfort with the credit quality? And what's really driving the increase in human yields?

然後也只是在投資組合上。如果我看看你們的新資金收益率，已經相當不錯了。第三季漲幅更大。我認為你的 10 年期公債殖利率高出近 300 個基點。所以你提到私人你正在做更多的私人，但產量似乎很高。那麼請談談您投資的是什麼以及您對信用品質的滿意程度？真正推動人類產量增加的因素是什麼？

So there, we, in this quarter, not every quarter is exactly our target asset allocations over time, but there were some great opportunities in private. So disproportionately, we had more of this quarter that explained really the full change quarter-over-quarter. But if you look at underlying still investment grade corporates were the largest allocation. And we had covered a bit in Investor Day. I know we normally don't spend a lot of time talking about investments, but we have a very broad platform. So we do have an excellent mix of opportunities across both public and private. And so there's a lot of premium we can add over just straight publics when we're investing. And on top of that, so there are some areas like [TMLs] where there's still very good opportunities because there's probably more interested borrowers than lenders given banks backing out of there, and we had really good opportunities there in rate-locks. So that's some of it.

因此，我們在這個季度，並不是每個季度都是我們隨著時間的推移進行資產配置的目標，但私下有一些很好的機會。因此，不成比例的是，本季我們有更多的數據真正解釋了季度環比的全部變化。但如果你看一下基礎資產，投資等級企業仍然是最大的配置。我們在投資者日討論了一些內容。我知道我們通常不會花很多時間談論投資，但我們有一個非常廣闊的平台。因此，我們確實在公共和私人領域擁有絕佳的機會組合。因此，當我們投資時，我們可以在直接公眾的基礎上增加很多溢價。最重要的是，在某些領域，例如[TML]，仍然存在非常好的機會，因為考慮到銀行的退出，有興趣的借款人可能比貸方更多，而且我們在利率鎖定方面確實有很好的機會。這就是其中的一些。

The next question comes from John Barnidge with Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自約翰·巴尼奇和派珀·桑德勒。

As we think about new business generation, and I'm just trying to think about how much of that is now coming from more boutique one-to-one solutions than just winning on price? Maybe leveraging the data and solutions you have to really grow that volume in the flywheel.

當我們考慮新的業務世代時，我只是想思考現在有多少來自更多精品一對一解決方案，而不僅僅是在價格上獲勝？也許利用數據和解決方案，您必須真正增加飛輪的體積。

Let me take that, John. Really, I just want to firstly just reiterate our strategy, which hasn't changed, which is, we, as I mentioned in my comments, we've got this incredible risk management and pricing capability. And when you combine it with the entrepreneurial spirit, the collaboration between our great people, this leads to innovation, leads to growing market share. And as I said during Investor Day, it's very important for our growth to continue to grow reinsurance markets and grow underlying insurance markets.

讓我接受，約翰。真的，我只想先重申我們的策略，這項策略沒有改變，也就是說，正如我在評論中提到的，我們擁有令人難以置信的風險管理和定價能力。當你將它與企業家精神以及我們優秀員工之間的合作結合起來時，就會帶來創新，帶來不斷增長的市場份額。正如我在投資者日期間所說，繼續發展再保險市場和基礎保險市場對於我們的成長非常重要。

So to answer your question, I'm really delighted with the proportion of our new business that came from what we call Creation Re. Broadly, it's really pursuing exclusive transactions where we're able to provide the idea, provide the innovative solution, hopefully give the partner that we partner with an edge to create greater value for that company and we share in that value.

因此，回答你的問題，我對我們的新業務中來自我們所謂的 Creation Re 的比例感到非常高興。從廣義上講，它實際上正在追求獨家交易，我們能夠提供想法，提供創新的解決方案，希望為我們的合作夥伴提供優勢，為該公司創造更大的價值，並且我們分享該價值。

So what I'd say, I'm not going to give you a specific number. We set a target, we well exceeded that target during the year. We'll obviously up our targets internally for 2024. But really, delighted with how that's going. And it really shows the strength of our strategy, the strength of our people and really the excitement within the organization.

所以我想說的是，我不會給你一個具體的數字。我們設定了一個目標，這一年我們遠遠超過了這個目標。我們顯然會在內部提高 2024 年的目標。但實際上，我們對事情的進展感到很高興。它確實展示了我們策略的力量、我們員工的力量以及組織內部的熱情。

My follow-up question, Variable investment income has been rather relatively strong. Can you maybe talk about your near-term outlook for transaction volume within that?

我的後續問題，可變投資收益一直相當強勁。您能否談談您對其中交易量的近期展望？

This is Leslie. Yes, so we had a very good -- solid quarter there on variable investment income. It was modestly above what we expected. I think if you think about the composition of our portfolio that drives that, which we have been strategically building over the last 10 years, we get sort of balanced sourcing from private equity and real estate. I would say that generally in the market, obviously, with 2023, not an amazing year for M&A and things that tends to drive less activity of realizations in the private equity portfolio.

這是萊斯利。是的，我們在可變投資收入方面度過了一個非常好的、穩定的季度。這略高於我們的預期。我認為，如果你考慮一下推動這一目標的投資組合的構成，我們在過去10 年裡一直在戰略性地構建這一投資組合，你會發現我們從私募股權和房地產獲得了某種平衡的採購。我想說的是，在市場上，顯然，2023 年對於併購和往往會導致私募股權投資組合變現活動減少的事情來說並不是一個令人驚奇的一年。

And on the real estate front, we have an in-house team and we're the ones picking those investments, we're the ones that are thinking about when is the best time to sell them. So I'd say part of 2023, certainly, there was probably in the marketplace in general, still a separation between buyers and sellers. I think there's some more activity picking up there. But for us, it's really about the specific holdings that we have and what makes the best sense about when to sell those.

在房地產方面，我們有一個內部團隊，我們是選擇這些投資的人，我們是考慮何時是出售投資的最佳時機的人。所以我想說，2023 年的一部分，當然，整個市場上買家和賣家之間可能仍然存在分離。我認為那裡正在進行更多活動。但對我們來說，真正重要的是我們擁有的具體資產以及何時出售這些資產最有意義。

So I think we'll continue to have a probably similar year in 2024 in terms of total VII possibly a touch lighter but we had a couple of years of really, really robust. This environment is a little less robust, but we're still moving around that long-term average return that we communicated in Investor Day of 10% to 12%.

因此，我認為 2024 年我們將繼續經歷類似的一年，就總 VII 而言，可能會稍微輕一些，但我們有幾年非常非常強勁。這種環境不太穩健，但我們仍在投資者日傳達的 10% 至 12% 的長期平均回報率附近徘徊。

The next question comes from Joel Hurwitz with Dowling Partners.

下一個問題來自 Dowling Partners 的 Joel Hurwitz。

So I appreciate the updated disclosure on the unrealized under margins. Can you just take me through the moving pieces of the $3 billion growth? I think you mentioned $2 billion is new business. I guess what is the other $1 billion? Is there net favorable experience that flows through that?

因此，我很欣賞關於未實現利潤率的最新披露。您能帶我了解一下 30 億美元成長的動人部分嗎？我想你提到 20 億美元是新業務。我猜剩下的10億美元是多少？是否有淨有利的經驗貫穿其中？

This is Todd. I'll start and others can chime in. But yes, so a big portion of that $3 billion, as you referred to -- about $2 billion, is due to the value add from the strong new business growth throughout 2023. Then the additional $1 billion is really a combination of sort of experience assumption adjustments and how they impact the future margins, offset a little bit by just natural runoff of the in-force business.

這是托德。我先開始，其他人也可以插話。但是，是的，正如您所提到的，這30 億美元中的很大一部分（大約20 億美元）是由於2023 年強勁的新業務增長帶來的附加價值。10 億美元實際上是經驗假設調整及其對未來利潤率的影響的結合，並被有效業務的自然流失所抵消。

And then just in terms of current quarter experience in U.S. individual mortality, can you just give a breakout of what you saw in the impact between capped and uncapped cohorts?

然後，就當前季度美國個人死亡率的經驗而言，您能否詳細說明您所看到的上限和未上限群體之間的影響？

Yes. So I'll start out. This is Todd again. The individual life portion of U.S. trend. We saw adverse claims of about $20 million, I would say, mainly related to elevated large claims. And as we mentioned, a lot of the unfavorable experience was in the capped cohorts, there was some offsetting favorable claims experience in some of the uncapped cohorts. So the net financial reporting statement impact -- for the income statement impact was about $40 million negative for the individual life in the quarter.

是的。那我就開始吧。這又是托德。美國趨勢的個人生活部分。我想說，我們看到了約 2000 萬美元的不利索賠，主要與大額索賠的增加有關。正如我們所提到的，許多不利的經歷都發生在有上限的群體中，而在一些無上限的群體中也有一些有利的索賠經歷。因此，本季個人生活對損益表的淨財務報告影響約為 4,000 萬美元。

Sorry, this is Jonathan, too. Just to add in, if you take a step back and look at the year-to-date results for U.S. Individual Life, our overall -- our underlying claims experience was favorable for the year, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, about $40 million favorable for individual life on its own. And again, we had some cohort distribution impacts, which resulted in that being a headwind over the course of the year, but our underlying experience was favorable.

抱歉，這也是喬納森。補充一點，如果您退後一步，看看美國個人人壽今年迄今為止的業績，我們的總體- 我們的基本索賠經驗對今年是有利的，正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，約為$40 百萬有利於個人生活本身。再說一次，我們遇到了一些群體分佈影響，這導致這一年的逆風，但我們的基本經驗是有利的。

And Sorry, Jonathan, let me just add a few more comments on your first question. Thank you for asking the question around long-term value from LDTI. I'll state the obvious that is only the business that's under LDTI. There is a significant proportion of our business that is not covered under LDTI at the moment.

抱歉，喬納森，讓我對你的第一個問題添加一些評論。感謝您詢問有關 LDTI 長期價值的問題。我將明確指出，這只是 LDTI 下的業務。目前，我們有很大一部分業務未涵蓋在 LDTI 範圍內。

The next question comes from Tom Gallagher with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Tom Gallagher。

Just a first question on the updated run rate earnings guidance. Is that -- should we view that as normalized '23 run rates or exit rate? And so when we think about '24, should we be growing that by your high single-digit rate? Or should we think about that more as a run rate for '24?

這是關於更新後的運行率獲利指引的第一個問題。我們是否應該將其視為標準化的“23 年運行率”或“退出率”？因此，當我們考慮 24 年時，我們是否應該以高單位數成長率來成長？或者我們應該更多地將其視為“24”的運行率？

Yes. So it is. We did look at 2023 on a sort of on a more normalized basis as we built up our projections going forward and developing our financial plan, that type of thing for 2024. So you could look at the updated run rates, more of our expectation of the run rates for 2024.

是的。確實如此。我們確實在更加標準化的基礎上看待2023 年，因為我們建立了未來的預測並製定了我們的財務計劃，即2024 年的此類事情。因此，您可以查看更新的運行率，更多的是我們對2024 年的運行率。

So there's some embedded growth expectation in those ranges. Is that fair, Todd?

因此，在這些範圍內存在一些內在的成長預期。這樣公平嗎，托德？

Yes, fair.

是的，公平。

My follow-up, Tony, I was interested in your comment about a greater percentage of your business coming from exclusive arrangements. Can you -- not that I'm looking for a history lesson, but just can you provide some perspective on how that's trended over time? Like historically, as most of your reinsurance you've written been done with pools of other reinsurers. What does that look like now? Is it different between U.S. and Asia?

我的後續行動，東尼，我對你關於你的業務中有更大比例來自獨家安排的評論很感興趣。你能——不是說我在尋找歷史課，而是你能提供一些關於歷史趨勢隨時間變化的觀點嗎？與歷史一樣，您所承保的大部分再保險都是與其他再保險公司共同完成的。現在看起來怎麼樣？美國和亞洲有什麼不同嗎？

Yes. I mean, I'd say we haven't kept track of those numbers necessarily. I mean, it's always been part of our culture really from Day 1. I would say it has broadly directionally increased over time. And as you allude to, it may differ in different geographies around the world and business units.

是的。我的意思是，我想說我們不一定會追蹤這些數字。我的意思是，從第一天起，它就一直是我們文化的一部分。我想說，隨著時間的推移，它已經廣泛定向增長。正如您所提到的，世界各地不同地區和業務部門的情況可能有所不同。

Now what really delighted me is as the messaging within the organization under Anna and now myself got stronger, just the belief in the teams that perhaps were not pursuing that as vigorously. We obviously asked them to -- look, that's the direction, give it a try. And there's nothing more fulfilling for any leader to see teams succeed in that, raise their own self belief that, hey, we can do this. And therefore, that's why we're so excited about our prospects and seeing some of the flywheel of the virtuous cycle really kicking off.

現在真正讓我高興的是，在安娜和我自己的領導下，組織內部的訊息變得更加強大，只是對團隊的信念可能沒有那麼積極地追求這一點。我們顯然要求他們——看，這就是方向，嘗試一下。對於任何領導者來說，看到團隊在這方面取得成功，提高自己的自信，“嘿，我們可以做到這一點”，沒有什麼比這更令人滿足的了。因此，這就是為什麼我們對我們的前景如此興奮，並看到良性循環的一些飛輪真正啟動。

And Tony, just one follow-up. Is the punch line there that the margins are -- I presume the margins are a lot better when you do exclusive deals instead of like, call it, the pool deals. Is that -- do you think that's fair?

東尼，只是一個後續行動。有趣的是，利潤是——我認為當你進行獨家交易而不是所謂的聯合交易時，利潤要好得多。你認為這公平嗎？

Yes. No. I mean definitely, the margins are better, but obviously, it's a win-win with us and our clients, right? I mean we're truly able to give them something that they're willing to commit an exclusive too. So it must be of great value. It's usually first to market or innovative. And then it's a greater value creator for us and our partner. And obviously, we're able to share some of that value.

是的。不，我的意思是，利潤確實更高，但顯然，這對我們和我們的客戶來說是雙贏，對吧？我的意思是，我們確實能夠為他們提供一些他們也願意承諾獨家的東西。所以它的價值一定很大。它通常是第一個進入市場或創新的。然後它為我們和我們的合作夥伴創造了更大的價值。顯然，我們能夠分享其中的一些價值。

The next question comes from Suneet Kamath with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的蘇尼特·卡馬斯 (Suneet Kamath)。

Just wanted to follow up on Tom's question, just so I understand the run rate guidance and all that stuff. So if I look at Slide 8, I think it shows that on a normalized basis, you did, call it, $1.7 billion of pretax earnings in 2023. And if I take the midpoint of the range in terms of the run rate, that's also around $1.7 billion. And I think what you said, Todd, is that's probably a good indication of 2024. So is that right? I mean, basically, what you're saying is 2024 pretax earnings should be in line with 2023 normalized?

只是想跟進湯姆的問題，這樣我就可以了解運行率指南和所有這些內容。因此，如果我看一下投影片 8，我認為它表明，在標準化的基礎上，2023 年稅前收益為 17 億美元。如果我採用運行率範圍的中點，這也是約17億美元。托德，我認為你所說的可能是 2024 年的一個很好的跡象。那麼這是對的嗎？我的意思是，基本上，您的意思是 2024 年稅前收益應該與 2023 年正常化一致？

Yes, normalized. And we've -- in 2023, we would as we've talked about, a very strong year, very solid underlying earnings. But when we came up with the 2024 run rate, we did look at, we would view some sort of not unusual items, but some one-off type items that we don't expect to repeat and add to the ongoing run rate. That could be some of the impact of the in-force actions adjustments some related to experience that kind of thing.

是的，標準化。正如我們所說，到 2023 年，我們將迎來非常強勁的一年，基本獲利非常穩健。但是，當我們提出 2024 年的運行率時，我們確實看到了一些並不罕見的項目，但我們不希望重複並添加到正在進行的運行率中的一些一次性類型的項目。這可能是與此類事件相關的有效行動調整的一些影響。

And then I guess on capital, just maybe if I could just parse it into two pieces, the $933 million deployed in 2023, like how quickly should that kind of earn in? Is that -- will that take kind of let earn in over the course of 2024? Or just -- because it seems like a lot of that was back-end loaded in terms of the third and fourth quarter so just curious about that.

然後我想在資本方面，也許我可以把它分成兩部分，也就是 2023 年部署的 9.33 億美元，這樣的收入應該要多快實現？那是——這需要我們在 2024 年期間才能賺到錢嗎？或者只是 - 因為看起來很多內容都是在第三和第四季度後端加載的，所以只是對此感到好奇。

And then somewhat relatedly, in terms of your excess capital, right? Like if I think about what you're earning on that, I would guess that the drag on ROE is probably like 100, 150 basis points, something out like that. So when you say excess of $1 billion, is your view that, that is fully deployable and that you will take that down over time? Or is a portion of that sort of walled off for just risk management?

然後，就你的過剩資本而言，有些相關，對嗎？就像如果我考慮一下你從中獲得的收入，我猜對 ROE 的拖累可能是 100、150 個基點，類似的東西。那麼，當你說超過 10 億美元時，你是否認為這是完全可部署的，並且隨著時間的推移你會取消它？或者其中一部分只是為了風險管理而被隔離？

Yes. So I'll take the latter part of your second question first. No, we're comfortable taking that excess capital level down. What we talked about in the past, down to the $600 million, $700 million range, we're comfortable with. We do want to keep some level of cushion. But all that being said, we've done quite a bit of work over the years developing alternative forms of capital that we can access fairly quickly. For example, the Ruby Re transaction that Tony and I mentioned.

是的。所以我先回答你第二個問題的後半部。不，我們願意降低多餘的資本水準。我們過去談到的，低至 6 億美元、7 億美元的範圍，我們都感到滿意。我們確實希望保持一定程度的緩衝。但話雖如此，多年來我們已經做了大量工作來開發我們可以相當快地獲得的替代形式的資本。例如，Tony 和我提到的 Ruby Re 交易。

So for the right transaction, the right underlying return profile, strategic profile, that kind of thing, we would be willing to dip down into that excess capital level when we're confident that we can replenish it fairly quickly. And then on the -- as we deployed the $933 million of capital throughout the year, the profits on that and returns tend to ramp up over time, depending on the type of underlying business so there will be some contribution in 2024, but it will be increasing over time.

因此，對於正確的交易、正確的基本回報狀況、策略狀況等，當我們有信心能夠相當快速地補充資本時，我們願意降低過剩資本水準。然後，隨著我們全年部署 9.33 億美元的資本，利潤和回報往往會隨著時間的推移而增加，具體取決於基礎業務的類型，因此 2024 年將會有一些貢獻，但它會隨著時間的推移而增加。

The next question comes from Ryan Krueger with KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Ryan Krueger。

My first question was on individual life mortality in the U.S. I heard your comments that 2023 in total was a bit favorable. I guess in the overall population, it seems like it's been consistently running unfavorable still to pre pandemic level. So I was interested in your thoughts on why you think you're seeing that type of divergence between [insured] experience versus population experience at this point?

我的第一個問題是關於美國的個人生命死亡率。我聽到你的評論說 2023 年總體來說有點有利。我猜想，在整體人口中，情況似乎一直不利於疫情前的水準。所以我對你的想法感興趣，為什麼你認為你在這一點上看到[受保]經驗與人口經驗之間的這種差異？

Yes. Ryan, it's Jonathan. I mean as you mentioned, there is a difference in the populations that we're talking about. So that could be some of why we're seeing different experience. It is also relative to the expectations that you said as well. So if you recall, over the last couple of years, we have been including excess mortality expectations in our reserving assumptions, in particular, under LDTI, when we move to best estimate. So our expectations include our best estimate of what we think that excess mortality will be. And as you said, the results are coming in a little bit favorable relative to those expectations.

是的。瑞安，我是喬納森。我的意思是，正如您所提到的，我們所討論的人群存在差異。所以這可能是我們看到不同經歷的部分原因。這也與你所說的期望有關。因此，如果您還記得，在過去幾年中，我們一直將超額死亡率預期納入我們的保留假設中，特別是在 LDTI 下，當我們轉向最佳估計時。因此，我們的預期包括我們對超額死亡率的最佳估計。正如您所說，結果相對於這些預期來說有點有利。

And then can you give any rough sensitivity on your exposure to floating rate assets? Either just the amount of floating rate assets that you have or the potential impact on earnings from let's say, a 25 basis point change in short-term rates?

那麼您能否給出您對浮動利率資產敞口的粗略敏感度？要么只是您擁有的浮動利率資產的數量，要么是短期利率變化 25 個基點對收益的潛在影響？

This is Leslie. So floating rate overall, I will first say that, obviously, some decline in rates has been expected for quite a while, and so we already have assumptions in the run rate guidance that are similar to where the market is currently. So you're starting from a fine point there. And then we have taken actions over 2023 as we thought we were near those take short-term rates to do some floating to fixed swaps on some of the floaters and net in the portfolio, it's less than 4% of the total exposure. So you're talking on the quarter of under $10 million over the course of the year for a 50 basis point move. But again, the forwards that already predict moves down in interest rates this year are already in our guidance.

這是萊斯利。因此，總體而言，浮動利率，我首先要說的是，顯然，長期以來人們預計利率會有所下降，因此我們已經在運行利率指導中做出了與當前市場類似的假設。所以你是從一個很好的點開始的。然後我們在2023 年採取了行動，因為我們認為我們已經接近採取短期利率的方式，對投資組合中的一些浮動利率和淨利率進行一些浮動到固定掉期，它不到總風險敞口的4% 。因此，您所討論的是全年 50 個基點變動的季度資金不足 1000 萬美元。但同樣，已經預測今年利率下降的遠期利率已經在我們的指導中。

Our next question comes from Wilma Burdis with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自威爾瑪·布爾迪斯和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

I guess, could you talk a little bit about the unfavorable experience in the capped cohort, specifically, if there were any trends you noticed there? And somewhat related to that, could you talk about any mortality trends you're seeing in this kind of winter flu and COVID season?

我想，您能否談談上限群體中的不利經歷，具體來說，您是否注意到其中有任何趨勢？與此相關的是，您能談談您在冬季流感和新冠肺炎季節中看到的死亡率趨勢嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Wilma. This is Jonathan. So for the quarter, when we looked at our experience, we did see some adverse experience in older ages and in larger policy sizes as Todd mentioned. And again, those large policies can be volatile period over period, just sort of the nature of the business. We did -- our experience overall was favorable or in line with other age groups and sizes though.

是的。謝謝，威爾瑪。這是喬納森。因此，在本季度，當我們回顧我們的經驗時，我們確實看到了托德提到的年齡較大和保單規模較大的一些不利經驗。再說一次，這些大型政策可能會隨著時間的推移而波動，這就是業務的本質。我們做到了——我們的整體體驗是有利的，或者與其他年齡層和體型一致。

When we think about the flu, I think so far, based on data that we've seen this year, flu is expected to be. It's a little earlier than what sort of a typical season would be, but not nearly as significant as what we saw last year. Based on the trending, it looks like it's probably going to be an average flu season this year, maybe a little bit below average or a little bit better than what we'd see in a typical year based on deaths and hospitalizations observed so far. And that's pretty consistent with what we've seen around the globe as well.

當我們想到流感時，我認為到目前為止，根據我們今年看到的數據，預計會出現流感。這比典型的季節要早一些，但並不像我們去年看到的那麼重要。根據趨勢，今年可能是一個平均的流感季節，可能略低於平均水平，或者比我們根據迄今為止觀察到的死亡和住院情況在典型年份中看到的情況要好一些。這也與我們在全球所看到的情況非常一致。

And anything I note on COVID?

關於新冠肺炎，我有什麼注意事項嗎？

Yes. I mean COVID is really difficult to get an accurate count of COVID on its own, so which is why we look at it more from a total excess mortality perspective, but based on the data we are able to observe, I think our expectation is there's no sign of a major fall or winter surge, but it's -- again, it's difficult to parse out the COVID based on the reporting quality these days.

是的。我的意思是，新冠病毒本身確實很難準確計數，所以這就是為什麼我們更多地從總超額死亡率的角度來看待它，但根據我們能夠觀察到的數據，我認為我們的期望是沒有跡象顯示秋季或冬季病例會大幅增加，但同樣，現在很難根據報告品質來解析新冠病毒。

And then just one more. If you guys could talk a little bit about how you're thinking about longevity exposure going forward? I know that's something that you used to kind of give some targets around increasing longevity exposure. Just maybe you can give us an update there.

然後還有一個。你們能談談你們對未來長壽暴露的看法嗎？我知道您過去常常為增加長壽風險設定一些目標。也許您可以在那裡向我們提供最新情況。

Yes. This is Jonathan. I'll go first, and others can add on. I think our expectation is the same as what we would have shared before at Investor Day. We do expect to see our proportion of longevity risk as a percentage of our overall biometric risk increase over the next few years. We expect our mortality in our morbidity business to grow, but we just think there's a great opportunity on the longevity side. So we do think it will increase it [more] -- it's going to be moving from more like a 10% to 15% of our total biometric risk to 20% to 25%, something in that magnitude. So we'll still be more weighted towards mortality, but just a little bit more balanced, which is a positive from a diversification perspective, obviously.

是的。這是喬納森。我先說，其他人可以補充。我認為我們的期望與我們之前在投資者日分享的期望相同。我們確實預計未來幾年長壽風險佔整體生物辨識風險的比例將會增加。我們預期發病率業務的死亡率將會上升，但我們只是認為在長壽方面有巨大的機會。所以我們確實認為它會增加它[更多]——它將從我們總生物識別風險的 10% 到 15% 上升到 20% 到 25%，這個幅度。因此，我們仍然會更加重視死亡率，但只是更平衡一點，從多元化的角度來看，這顯然是正面的。

Yes. Perhaps let me just add, and I'll just kind of queue off what Jonathan said on diversification. So obviously, we will be mortality long for quite a period of time. but the longevity adds some diversification. But just to get a bit more finer, yes, our mortality block tends to be higher socioeconomics in younger age. Our longevity block obviously tends to be blue collar and retirees. So with medical advances that we would expect to continue to see, as we've always seen, in a way, it favors the mortality block more so than the negative on the longevity block.

是的。也許讓我補充一下，我將整理一下喬納森關於多元化的言論。顯然，我們將在相當長的時間內死去。但長壽增加了一些多樣化。但更進一步說，是的，我們的死亡率往往是在年輕時社會經濟因素較高。我們的長壽群體顯然傾向於藍領和退休人員。因此，隨著我們期望繼續看到的醫學進步，正如我們一直看到的那樣，在某種程度上，它對死亡率的影響比對壽命的負面影響更大。

The next question comes from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

First one I had for you is on the regulatory front. I know in Bermuda, I think you guys don't use a scenario-based approach and your U.S. taxpayer, so a little less applicable to you. But I guess, you're just interested in a broad update. Are you seeing it affect to the competitive environment at all? For some of the relationships and transactions you have? I mean any kind of price sensitivity change related to it?

我為您提供的第一個建議是關於監管方面的。我知道在百慕達，我認為你們不使用基於場景的方法和美國納稅人，所以對你們來說不太適用。但我想，您只是對廣泛的更新感興趣。您認為這對競爭環境有影響嗎？對於你所擁有的一些關係和交易？我的意思是與之相關的任何類型的價格敏感性變化？

I think we've previously shared, we have anecdotally seen some impact on the competition. There was a previous quotation where due to an announcement in Bermuda overnight, the number of competitors on a certain individual quotation dropped dramatically. We obviously are very mindful of regulations around the world, Bermuda, the U.S., even Europe and U.K., we're seeing obviously some discussions. We're not overly concerned by that, we always continue to focus on what we're doing. And in some sense, that's why we're very delighted with the Belgium transaction that we did. There is a lot of discussion on regulatory issues in the continent but we were very delighted with that transaction. We believe it can open up further opportunities in Belgium and broader throughout the continent.

我想我們之前已經分享過，我們已經看到了對競爭的一些影響。之前有報價，由於百慕達隔夜發佈公告，導致某個別報價的競爭對手數量大幅下降。顯然，我們非常關注世界各地的法規，百慕達、美國，甚至歐洲和英國，我們顯然看到了一些討論。我們對此並不過分擔心，我們始終專注於我們正在做的事情。從某種意義上說，這就是為什麼我們對我們在比利時所做的交易感到非常高興。關於非洲大陸的監管問題有很多討論，但我們對這筆交易感到非常高興。我們相信，它可以在比利時乃至整個非洲大陸開闢更多機會。

And I guess for a second question, could you just kind of give us a feel for how fashion rates are trending in the U.S. market, something I don't track quite as closely. So I'd just be interested if you have an update on sort of where things are moving there.

我想對於第二個問題，您能否讓我們了解美國市場的時尚價格趨勢，我並沒有密切跟踪這一點。因此，如果您有關於那裡的進展的最新信息，我很感興趣。

Yes, maybe I'll take that one. I mean I think directionally, it's in a positive direction. Our job is always, as I mentioned earlier, continue to innovate, find new ways to have a win-win with our partners, so they have a strong compelling reason to reinsure. I would say session rates as they usually track is on new business. What we have seen increasing interesting as some of the clients move towards a more capital-light derisking their in-force blocks of business. That creates greater opportunities for us on an in-force perspective, reinsuring mortality on back books and so on.

是的，也許我會選擇那個。我的意思是，我認為有方向性，這是一個積極的方向。正如我之前提到的，我們的工作始終是不斷創新，尋找新的方式與我們的合作夥伴雙贏，這樣他們就有強有力的理由進行再保險。我想說的是，他們通常追蹤的會話率是針對新業務的。隨著一些客戶轉向更輕資本、降低其有效業務部門的風險，我們所看到的事情變得越來越有趣。從有效的角度來看，這為我們創造了更多的機會，為過帳的死亡率提供再保險等等。

The next question comes from Mike Ward with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的麥克沃德。

So we have the new run rate guidance and there's the 8% to 10% earnings growth, which I think is for dollars of earnings and EPS. So I'm just kind of wondering, is there a component that you -- with the 8% to 10%, is there a component in there from just improved new money yields or just NII in general, growing?

因此，我們有新的運行率指導，盈利增長 8% 到 10%，我認為這是針對盈利和每股收益的美元。所以我只是想知道，是否有一個組成部分——8％到10％，其中是否有一個組成部分來自剛剛提高的新資金收益率或總體上NII的增長？

Mike, it's Todd. I just start out by saying the increase in the overall run rate that we provided last night compared to the Investor Day back in June, there's really three components, I would say. There's the higher investment yields. And then there's the good experience on the in-force billbook overall across the diversified platform. And then there's the added margin for the strong new business volumes that we've been able to achieve during the year.

麥克，我是托德。我首先要說的是，與 6 月的投資者日相比，我們昨晚提供的整體運行率有所增加，我想說，實際上有三個組成部分。投資收益率更高。此外，多元化平台上的有效帳單總體上也有良好的體驗。此外，我們在這一年中實現的強勁新業務量也帶來了額外的利潤。

And Todd, the only thing I'll add, I know the print for new money grade is particularly high this quarter. That isn't what is assumed for the full year, the assumptions about how much money will have put to work and where it will go is more consistent with current market conditions than that particular print in the fourth quarter.

托德，我唯一要補充的是，我知道本季新貨幣等級的印刷量特別高。這並不是全年的假設，關於將投入多少資金以及資金流向的假設比第四季度的特定印刷品更符合當前的市場狀況。

And then maybe on just on capital return. Does the 8% to 10% kind of assume an ongoing, call it, $200 million of annual buybacks going forward?

然後也許只是資本回報。 8% 到 10% 是否假設未來每年進行 2 億美元的持續回購？

Yes. I would say it really considers our continued sort of active and balanced capital management between as we've been very consistent over the years, we really like deploying the capital into the transactions that make good returns for the risk return profile, keeping healthy dividend and then balancing out with the share repurchases. So it's really the continued assumption of that active and balanced approach to the capital management.

是的。我想說，這確實考慮了我們持續的積極和平衡的資本管理，因為我們多年來一直非常一致，我們真的很喜歡將資本部署到能夠為風險回報狀況帶來良好回報的交易中，保持健康的股息和然後通過股票回購來平衡。因此，這實際上是對資本管理積極、平衡方法的持續假設。

Our next question comes from Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的吉米·布拉爾 (Jimmy Bhullar)。

I just wanted to follow up to see if you could give us some color on what's going on in the Australia business. And just how the block performed this quarter? And how much of the problematic vintages are already on your books and just your overall comfort level with the reserves for that book?

我只是想跟進一下，看看您是否能給我們一些有關澳洲業務的進展的資訊。該區塊本季的表現如何？有多少有問題的年份已經在您的書上，以及您對該書的儲備的整體舒適程度？

Yes. So for the quarter, we had a modest loss in Australia, continuing to monitor the business. And overall, market conditions seem to be okay, but we'll continue to keep a close eye on the overall block. But overall, our reserves for most of that business are under LDTI, so we're required to be holding best estimate reserves on the balance sheet.

是的。因此，本季度，我們在澳洲出現了小幅虧損，並繼續監控業務。總體而言，市場狀況似乎還不錯，但我們將繼續密切關注整個區塊。但總體而言，我們大部分業務的準備金都在 LDTI 之下，因此我們需要在資產負債表上保留最佳估計準備金。

Yes, Jimmy, as we've probably shared previously, Australia is somewhere we pay very close attention to. I guess it was my first time. Really, as you would expect, the regulatory environment and the market has improved over time. We, as you'd expect from RGA, retain our incredibly strong discipline. Like I mentioned, it's really that combination of the risk management along with the entrepreneurial spirit that's absolutely the discipline. And Australia is part of our Asian business, a relatively minor part of the Asian business.

是的，吉米，正如我們之前可能分享的那樣，澳洲是我們非常密切關注的地方。我想這是我第一次。事實上，正如您所期望的那樣，監管環境和市場隨著時間的推移而有所改善。正如您對 RGA 的期望，我們保留了極其嚴格的紀律。正如我所提到的，風險管理與企業家精神的結合才是絕對的紀律。澳洲是我們亞洲業務的一部分，是亞洲業務相對較小的一部分。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tony Cheng for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回托尼·鄭（Tony Cheng）發表閉幕詞。

Thank you, everyone, for your questions and sincere thanks for your continued interest in RGA. This was a very strong quarter, but really completing a very, very strong year. Further demonstrates our substantial earning powers in our business. I think you've seen all the time the incredibly diverse platform we have, whether it's experience, whether it's geography, whether it's our business strategy, and that's really fueling, we feel, a very strong pipeline that we obviously have visibility on. So we really remain very well positioned to capitalize on the many growth opportunities ahead. We're absolutely confident in our ability to continue to deliver attractive returns to our shareholders and benefit all our stakeholders. So thank you once again.

謝謝大家提出的問題，並衷心感謝您對 RGA 的持續關注。這是一個非常強勁的季度，但確實是非常非常強勁的一年。進一步證明了我們業務的巨大獲利能力。我想你一直都看到我們擁有令人難以置信的多元化平台，無論是經驗，無論是地理位置，還是我們的業務策略，我們認為這確實在推動我們顯然擁有可見性的非常強大的管道。因此，我們確實處於有利地位，可以利用未來許多成長的機會。我們對我們有能力繼續為股東帶來有吸引力的回報並讓所有利益相關者受益充滿信心。所以再次感謝您。

Thanks. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。