Reynolds Consumer Products Inc (REYN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Reynolds Consumer Products first quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mark Swartzberg, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

大家好，歡迎參加雷諾消費品 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興介紹您的主持人、投資者關係副總裁馬克‧斯沃茨伯格 (Mark Swartzberg)。謝謝您，先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Reynolds Consumer Products' First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Please note, this call is being webcast on the Investor Relations section of our corporate site at reynoldsconsumerproducts.com. Our earnings press release and investor deck are also available.

謝謝您，接線生。早安，感謝您參加雷諾消費品公司第一季財報電話會議。請注意，本次電話會議將在我們公司網站 reynoldsconsumerproducts.com 的「投資者關係」區塊進行網路直播。我們的獲利新聞稿和投資者簡報也可下載。

With me on the call today are Scott Huckins, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Nathan Lowe, our Chief Financial Officer. Following prepared remarks, we will open the call for a brief question-and-answer session.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Scott Huckins 和我們的財務長 Nathan Lowe。在準備好發言之後，我們將開始簡短的問答環節。

Before we begin, I would like to provide you that this morning's discussion will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties and changes in circumstances that could cause actual results and outcomes to differ materially from those described today. Please refer to the Risk Factors section in our SEC filings. The company does not intend to update or alter these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances arising after the call.

在我們開始之前，我想告訴大家，今天早上的討論將包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險、不確定性和情況變化的影響，可能導致實際結果與今天描述的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的風險因素部分。該公司不打算更新或修改這些前瞻性陳述以反映電話會議後發生的事件或情況。

During today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of these GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings press release, investor presentation deck and Form 10-Q, which can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考某些非公認會計準則或調整後的財務指標。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿、投資者簡報和 10-Q 表格中找到這些 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表，這些內容可在我們網站的「投資者關係」部分找到。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Scott.

現在我想把電話轉給史考特。

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. We are executing well in a dynamic consumer and retail environment. I am proud of our team for remaining nimble, staying close to our retail partners and working at pace to manage through this period of heightened uncertainty. We also continue to invest in growth and margin expansion as we are committed to unlocking additional value for our CP and our shareholders. I will review performance and how we are driving our business before passing the call to Nathan to review the financials, our guide and our plans for capital allocation.

謝謝你，馬克，大家早安。在充滿活力的消費者和零售環境中，我們表現得很好。我為我們的團隊保持靈活、與零售合作夥伴保持密切聯繫並快速度過這段高度不確定的時期而感到自豪。我們也將繼續投資於成長和利潤擴張，致力於為我們的 CP 和股東釋放更多價值。在將電話轉給 Nathan 審查財務狀況、我們的指南和資本配置計劃之前，我將審查業績以及我們如何推動業務發展。

As you know, our priorities are to drive growth at or above our categories, expand margins and invest in a more stable earnings growth model. We made great progress against these priorities during the quarter. We outperformed our categories by 2 points at retail, capturing share in household foil, waste bags, food bags and nonfoam disposable tableware.

如您所知，我們的首要任務是推動同類別或更高類別的成長、擴大利潤率並投資於更穩定的獲利成長模式。本季我們在這些優先事項上取得了巨大進展。我們在零售方面的表現比同類產品高出 2 個百分點，佔據了家用鋁箔、垃圾袋、食品袋和非泡沫一次性餐具的市場份額。

And we did so without an increase in promotional spend versus the year ago quarter, demonstrating our success in driving innovation and net gains in distribution, including Hefty Press to Close food bags and the addition of NuSense to the growing line of Hefty Fabuloso waste bags, the introduction of Hefty Compostable cutlery leveraging and commercializing new technology from the Atacama acquisition, introducing new cooking and baking products, including Reynolds Kitchen, air fryer cups, building on our success connecting with younger consumers and the scaling of multiple new store brand products.

與去年同期相比，我們的促銷支出並沒有增加，這證明了我們在推動創新和分銷淨收益方面的成功，包括 Hefty Press to Close 食品袋和將 NuSense 添加到不斷增長的 Hefty Fabuloso 垃圾袋系列中，利用和商業化收購 Atacama 的新技術推出 Hefty Compostable 餐具，推出新的烹飪和烘焙產品，包括 家人Kitchen、氣炸鍋杯，在我們與年輕消費者建立聯繫的成功基礎上，以及多個新商店品牌產品的擴展。

We delivered our earnings guide in spite of unanticipated retailer destocking in a very dynamic macro environment. And we employed our strong balance sheet to invest in the high return growth and margin expansion programs I reviewed in February.

儘管在高度動態的宏觀環境下零售商意外地減少了庫存，我們仍然發布了盈利指南。我們利用強大的資產負債表來投資我在二月審查的高回報成長和利潤擴張計劃。

In other words, the underlying health of our business is strong. We are acting decisively to respond to the changing macro dynamics, and we remain focused on progressing our strategic initiatives. We are implementing spring resets and price increases according to plan, gaining shelf space and points of distribution across RCP. In response to the increased cost environment, and for those of you who are new to our business, we have a clear record of fully recovering gross profit through pricing and productivity.

換句話說，我們的業務基本上健康狀況良好。我們正在果斷應對不斷變化的宏觀形勢，並繼續專注於推進我們的策略舉措。我們正在按照計劃實施春季重置和價格上漲，在 RCP 上獲得貨架空間和分銷點。為了因應成本增加的環境，對於那些剛接觸我們業務的人來說，我們有透過定價和生產力完全恢復毛利的明確記錄。

These capabilities are rooted in competitive advantages, including our strong brands and associated pricing power, resilient business model and category leadership positions. Some of the insights guiding our work with our retail partners include targeted promotions on more discretionary items, assortment changes to meet certain consumers increased quest for value and continued price pack architecture work to deliver the right combination of value and purchase size.

這些能力植根於競爭優勢，包括我們強大的品牌和相關的定價能力、有彈性的商業模式和類別領導。我們與零售合作夥伴合作時遵循的一些指導意見包括：針對更多非必需品進行有針對性的促銷，改變產品組合以滿足特定消費者對價值的更高追求，以及持續進行價格包架構工作以提供價值和購買規模的正確組合。

That said, tariffs and their resulting impact on consumer sentiment has made for a more dynamic near-term environment and we have tempered our fiscal 2025 expectations accordingly. We can ultimately benefit from changes in U.S. trade policy, given our domestic-oriented supply chain and continue to be guided by the priorities we set for the year.

儘管如此，關稅及其對消費者情緒的影響使得短期環境更加活躍，我們也相應地調整了對 2025 財年的預期。鑑於我們的國內供應鏈，我們最終可以從美國貿易政策的變化中受益，並繼續以我們今年設定的優先事項為指導。

Turning to progress against our core priorities. We are fortunate to have begun scoping growth and margin expansion initiatives in 2024. And we are executing well against the related pillars I reviewed in February. As a reminder, in the growth pillar, our work consists of targeted distribution gains the prioritizing and resourcing of larger scale innovation and reallocating promotional spend to higher return opportunities.

轉向實現我們的核心優先事項的進展。我們很幸運能夠在 2024 年開始規劃成長和利潤擴張計畫。我們正在按照我在二月份審查過的相關支柱順利執行。提醒一下，在成長支柱中，我們的工作包括有針對性的分銷收益、更大規模創新的優先排序和資源配置以及將促銷支出重新分配給更高回報的機會。

In the area of margin expansion, we are unpacking our supply chain reviewing input costs and identifying opportunities to improve productivity across our network. Many of these opportunities are supported by the deployment of capital with attractive returns, and we remain committed to investing in growth.

在利潤率擴大方面，我們正在解開我們的供應鏈，審查投入成本並尋找提高整個網路生產力的機會。許多這樣的機會都得到了具有誘人回報的資本部署的支持，我們仍然致力於投資成長。

Our work in each area is progressing well and includes success identifying impactful innovation and resourcing it accordingly further opportunities to drive share, including the deployment of our developing revenue growth management capabilities and favorable early reads on efficiencies and cost savings through additional optimization of our supply chain. I look forward to reporting more on our progress, particularly as we begin to see benefits late this year.

我們在各個領域的工作都進展順利，包括成功識別有影響力的創新並相應地提供資源以進一步推動份額，包括部署我們正在開發的收入增長管理能力以及通過進一步優化我們的供應鏈在效率和成本節約方面取得的良好早期進展。我期待報告更多我們的進展情況，特別是當我們在今年稍後開始看到效益時。

And to be clear, the recent tariff announcements in more challenging retail environment have not caused us to alter our strategic direction. If anything, they reinforce the need for us to control our own destiny by driving the top line with innovation and distribution gains, while expanding margins through cost-out work.

需要明確的是，在更具挑戰性的零售環境中最近宣布的關稅並沒有導致我們改變策略方向。無論如何，它們都強化了我們掌控自己命運的必要性，即透過創新和分銷收益來推動營收成長，同時透過降低成本來擴大利潤率。

In closing, we are spending even more time in the field with our retail partners, listening to their needs, unlocking shared growth opportunities with insights and products that drive our categories. We are acting with nimbleness and discipline, pulling our many levers to drive financial performance in a very dynamic macro environment. And we are investing with discipline across RCP in high-return work streams to drive future performance.

最後，我們花了更多時間與零售合作夥伴一起在現場工作，傾聽他們的需求，並利用推動我們產品類別發展的見解和產品來釋放共同的成長機會。我們行動靈活、紀律嚴明，在高度動態的宏觀環境中運用多種手段推動財務績效。我們正在 RCP 內部嚴格投資高回報工作流程，以推動未來的績效。

Nathan, over to you.

內森，交給你了。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning. I am pleased with our first quarter performance, which is consistent with the expectations we outlined in early February in spite of the unanticipated headwind from retailer destocking. We delivered net revenues of $818 million. Retail revenues of $767 million were $28 million below retail revenues in the first quarter of 2024, reflecting the headwind from later Easter timing, retailer destocking and declines in the foam category.

謝謝你，斯科特，早安。我對我們的第一季業績感到滿意，儘管零售商去庫存帶來了意料之外的阻力，但業績仍然符合我們在 2 月初提出的預期。我們的淨收入達到 8.18 億美元。零售收入為 7.67 億美元，比 2024 年第一季的零售收入低 2,800 萬美元，反映了復活節時間較晚、零售商去庫存以及泡沫類別下滑帶來的不利影響。

Across the balance of our portfolio, we grew volumes at retail and outperformed category takeaways by approximately 2 points. Non-retail revenues increased $12 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $117 million was at the midpoint of our guide and compares to $122 million of adjusted EBITDA in the year ago period, primarily driven by lower retail sales. And adjusted earnings per share was unchanged at $0.23 versus the first quarter of 2024. Adjusted EPS excludes $0.05 of term loan refinancing costs after tax and $0.04 of strategic investments in revenue growth and operational cost savings initiatives and CEO transition costs after tax.

在我們的投資組合中，零售業務量有所成長，並且比外送業務高出約 2 個百分點。非零售收入增加了 1200 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.17 億美元，處於我們指南的中點，而去年同期的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.22 億美元，這主要受零售額下降的影響。調整後每股收益與 2024 年第一季相比保持不變，為 0.23 美元。調整後的每股盈餘不包括稅後 0.05 美元的定期貸款再融資成本以及稅後 0.04 美元的收入成長和營運成本節約計畫的策略性投資和執行長過渡成本。

Our fundamentals are strong, and we will continue to deploy our wide range of tools to deliver against our commercial, operational and financial priorities in a very dynamic environment. We continue to expect 2025 net revenues to be down low single digits by comparison to 2024 net revenues and now expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of $650 million to $670 million and adjusted EPS of $1.54 to $1.61 for the year.

我們的基礎很強大，我們將繼續部署廣泛的工具，在高度動態的環境中實現我們的商業、營運和財務優先事項。我們繼續預期 2025 年淨收入將比 2024 年淨收入下降個位數，目前預計全年調整後 EBITDA 在 6.5 億美元至 6.7 億美元之間，調整後 EPS 在 1.54 美元至 1.61 美元之間。

It is worth noting that our purchases of products from countries currently subject to increased tariffs represent a single-digit percentage of our overall COGS, and we currently estimate $100 million to $200 million in cost headwinds on an annualized basis, considering both the direct and indirect impact from tariffs.

值得注意的是，我們從目前受到關稅上調影響的國家購買的產品僅占我們整體銷貨成本的個位數百分比，考慮到關稅的直接和間接影響，我們目前估計每年的成本阻力為 1 億至 2 億美元。

We are offsetting these headwinds through a combination of pricing, productivity and incremental cost reductions. On the topic of pricing, our revenue guide now contemplates 2 to 4 points of pricing, reflecting one element of these recovery actions.

我們透過定價、生產力和增量成本削減等措施來抵銷這些不利因素。在定價方面，我們的收入指南現在考慮了 2 到 4 個定價點，反映了這些復甦行動的一個要素。

We continue to expect retail volume at or above category performance, but anticipate more pressure on our categories, which we previously estimated to be flat excluding foam. Lower consumer confidence, elasticities and retailers managing inventory levels are all contributing factors.

我們仍然預計零售量將達到或超過類別表現，但預計我們的類別將面臨更大壓力，我們先前估計除泡沫外，我們的類別將持平。消費者信心下降、彈性和零售商管理庫存水準都是造成這種情況的因素。

As a reminder, our expectations for adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income and adjusted EPS exclude approximately $25 million to $35 million of pretax costs to execute strategic initiatives and CEO transition costs.

提醒一下，我們對調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的淨收入和調整後的 EPS 的預期不包括執行戰略計劃和 CEO 過渡成本的約 2500 萬至 3500 萬美元的稅前成本。

In addition, the term loan refinancing costs incurred in the first quarter are also excluded from adjusted net income and adjusted EPS for the year. The work related to these strategic initiatives is going well and on target for delivery of financial benefits late this year.

此外，第一季產生的定期貸款再融資成本也不包括在年度調整後淨收入和調整後每股盈餘中。與這些策略舉措相關的工作進展順利，預計今年稍後將帶來財務效益。

I'm particularly pleased with what has been identified in the area of manufacturing productivity and network optimization as well as the quality of the automation investments we have begun and the return profile of our pipeline of opportunities. Second quarter, we expect net revenues to be down 2% to 5% by comparison to second quarter 2024, net revenues of $930 million, driven by lower volumes and partially offset by pricing.

我對我們在製造生產力和網路優化領域所取得的成果以及我們已經開始的自動化投資的品質和我們的機會管道的回報狀況感到特別滿意。我們預計第二季淨收入將與 2024 年第二季的 9.3 億美元相比下降 2% 至 5%，原因是銷售量下降，且部分被定價所抵銷。

We expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $155 million to $165 million by comparison to second quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $172 million and expect adjusted earnings per share in a range of $0.35 to $0.39 versus $0.46 in the year ago period.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 1.55 億美元至 1.65 億美元之間，而 2024 年第二季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.72 億美元，預計調整後的每股收益將在 0.35 美元至 0.39 美元之間，而去年同期為 0.46 美元。

As a reminder, we are lapping a onetime tax benefit in the second quarter of last year that equates to a $0.05 EPS headwind. Before turning to capital allocation, please note that effective January 1, 2025, we have updated our segment reporting to now reflect our international business based on product category alignment as opposed to the entirety of international results historically being reported in the Reynolds Cooking & Baking segment.

提醒一下，我們在去年第二季度獲得了一次性稅收優惠，相當於每股收益 0.05 美元的不利因素。在轉向資本配置之前，請注意，自 2025 年 1 月 1 日起，我們已更新分部報告，現在根據產品類別調整來反映我們的國際業務，而不是雷諾烹飪和烘焙分部歷史上報告的全部國際業績。

Reported comparison periods have also been updated to align with our new reporting.

報告的比較期也已更新，以符合我們的新報告。

Now turning to cash flow and capital allocation. In March, we successfully refinanced our term loan facility, extending the maturity of our debt and further enhancing the company's financial flexibility. Along with the upsizing of our revolving credit facility last October, we are now even better positioned to support our strategic priorities and create long-term value for our shareholders.

現在轉向現金流和資本配置。三月份，我們成功地對定期貸款進行了再融資，延長了債務期限，進一步增強了公司的財務靈活性。隨著去年十月循環信貸額度的增加，我們現在更有能力支持我們的策略重點並為股東創造長期價值。

We remain focused on all elements of strong free cash flow, including working capital where we see opportunities for additional improvements, and we continue to flow all investment decisions through our returns-based capital allocation framework and continue to anticipate a $20 million to $40 million increase in capital spending in 2025 to drive growth, margin expansion and a more robust earnings model.

我們仍然關注強勁自由現金流的所有要素，包括我們看到進一步改進機會的營運資本，並且我們繼續透過基於回報的資本配置框架來執行所有投資決策，並繼續預計2025年的資本支出將增加2000萬至4000萬美元，以推動增長、利潤率擴大和更強勁的盈利模式。

In closing, we are adapting well in a very dynamic market and investing in high-return programs to drive future performance. We will continue leveraging our competitive advantages and insights to drive our categories and we remain focused on profitability, cash flow and investment discipline to drive value in 2025 and over the long term.

最後，我們很好地適應了充滿活力的市場，並投資高回報項目來推動未來的績效。我們將繼續利用我們的競爭優勢和洞察力來推動我們的產品類別，並繼續專注於獲利能力、現金流量和投資紀律，以在 2025 年及長期推動價值。

With that, let's turn to your questions. Operator?

好了，讓我們來回答你的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

The first question is from Kaumil Gajrawala from Jefferies.

第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

Can we maybe dig into the retailer destocking piece of the equation? We've heard it from others as well. As it relates to your business, are you -- is this something that seems temporary, maybe just a onetime adjustment to permanently lower inventories? Or is this something that is maybe just related to retailers operating differently in this environment and perhaps there'll be somewhat of a reversal as we get into the back half of the year?

我們能否深入研究零售商去庫存的部分？我們也從其他人那裡聽過。就您的業務而言，這是否是暫時的，也許只是一次性調整以永久降低庫存？或者這可能只是與零售商在這種環境下的運作方式不同有關，也許進入下半年會出現某種逆轉？

Thanks for the question. I guess as we evaluated the first quarter, we certainly did incur headwinds from retailer destocking. We don't have any reason to think there'll be a step change on a go-forward basis, meaning I'm not expecting to see a reversal of that.

謝謝你的提問。我想，當我們評估第一季時，我們確實遭遇了零售商去庫存帶來的阻力。我們沒有任何理由認為未來會發生重大變化，這意味著我不希望看到這種情況發生逆轉。

Our assumption is that what happened in the first quarter sort of flows through the balance of the year. We've been pouring over April results, trying to figure out whether there's a step change in it. It's not conclusive at this point.

我們的假設是，第一季發生的事情將會影響到全年。我們一直在仔細研究四月份的結果，試圖弄清楚其中是否有重大變化。目前還沒有定論。

We don't have the benefit of even a four months worth of data. And of course, we're also trying to figure out the Easter lap and a timing difference this year versus last year. So I'd say we certainly saw it in Q1, our assumption is that, that is permanent and flows to the full year.

我們甚至沒有獲得四個月的數據。當然，我們也在試圖弄清楚今年與去年的復活節圈和時間差異。所以我想說我們肯定在第一季看到了這一點，我們的假設是，這是永久性的，並將持續到全年。

Okay. Great. And then on some of the strategic expenses, I guess, revenue growth management and some of the other things, Nathan, that you mentioned along with the CapEx, is this -- is that the same thing? Do they overlap? How should we just think about really how you're -- what you're investing in to evolve the business forward?

好的。偉大的。然後關於一些策略支出，我想，收入成長管理以及您提到的其他一些事情，Nathan，以及資本支出，這是——是同一件事嗎？它們重疊嗎？我們應該如何真正思考您—您投資了什麼來推動業務向前發展？

Good question. So the strategic investments that we're referring to there are really focused on the P&L. I think you hit it. And just to remind everybody, we have three things happening. We're evaluating and developing the implementation of revenue growth management. We're evaluating cost out work around all things procurement.

好問題。因此，我們所指的策略投資實際上集中在損益表。我認為你成功了。提醒大家一下，我們有三件事正在發生。我們正在評估和製定收入成長管理的實施方案。我們正在評估所有採購事宜的成本。

So any and all third-party input costs. And then lastly, evaluating the efficiency of our overall supply chain network. So those are P&L dollars that, as you know, we baked into our guide and had back from an EBITDA standpoint that's separate from capital. I'll let Nathan comment on capital.

因此所有第三方的投入都是有成本的。最後，評估我們整體供應鏈網路的效率。因此，如您所知，這些是損益美元，我們將其納入指南中，並從獨立於資本的 EBITDA 角度計算。我會讓 Nathan 對資本進行評論。

Yes. I mean I can give you, I guess, a little bit of a flavor of some of the capital work we're doing, Kaumil. But in general, I think we talked a little bit about this earlier in the year as we've really gone through all of our manufacturing operations to get a sense of the level of automation in all components and where we have opportunities we're now ranking, stacking them and executing against that.

是的。我的意思是，我可以給你稍微介紹一下我們正在進行的一些基本工作，考米爾。但總的來說，我想我們在今年早些時候討論過這個問題，因為我們已經真正完成了我們所有的製造業務，以了解所有組件的自動化水平，以及我們現在所擁有的機會，我們正在對其進行排名、堆疊並執行。

Peter Grom from UBS Investment Bank

瑞銀投資銀行的 Peter Grom

I was hoping to just get some color on what is now contemplated in the guidance from a category growth perspective. You mentioned it's worse versus the prior outlook. But is there any way you can maybe provide some guardrails in terms of what you're expecting?

我希望從類別成長的角度了解目前指南中所考慮的內容。您提到情況比之前的展望更糟。但是，您是否可以針對您所期望的情況提供一些保護措施？

Yes, sure. Really two factors account for the change of the guide. I mean you could see in our guide that it now contemplates what's the revenue guide is unchanged, now contemplates a greater quantum of pricing. So the two factors, I would say that the offset to that with a lower expectation of retail volumes. First of all, the retailer destocking was a factor in the first quarter.

是的，當然。實際上有兩個因素導致了指南的改變。我的意思是，您可以在我們的指南中看到，它現在考慮的收入指南保持不變，現在考慮更大的定價。因此，我認為這兩個因素抵消了零售量預期降低的影響。首先，零售商去庫存是第一季的一個因素。

As Scott just said, we don't expect that to reverse. So that equates to roughly 1 point headwind for the full year. The balance of the change really relates to the consumer being under pressure in general as well as elasticity implications from higher prices that we expect to show up at retail.

正如斯科特剛才所說，我們不希望這種情況逆轉。因此，這相當於全年逆風約 1 點。這種變化的平衡實際上與消費者普遍面臨的壓力以及我們預期零售價格上漲所帶來的彈性影響有關。

That's very helpful, Nathan. I guess just following up on just the cost headwinds, and I would love to just maybe get some perspective on phasing. How should we think about the mitigation impact as we move through the year? I guess what I'm trying to get at is you outlined $100 million to $200 million of what I think our gross impacts related to the tariffs and indirect costs. But just any thoughts in terms of how we should be thinking about the net impact as we move through the balance of the year would be helpful.

這非常有幫助，內森。我想只是專注於成本方面的不利因素，我可能只是想了解一些關於分階段的看法。我們該如何看待這一年中緩解的影響？我想我想表達的是，您概述了我認為與關稅和間接成本相關的 1 億到 2 億美元的總體影響。但是，關於我們應該如何看待今年餘下的淨影響的任何想法都會有所幫助。

Yes. I think probably the best way to think about it is we've given a range of pricing outcomes, and they are generally tied to the range of cost headwinds that we would anticipate to show up in the year, which is different to the $100 million to $200 million of annualized costs. So I think if you factor all that in, it gives you a decent sense in general, I think you know most about our cost flow through timing ranges from two to six months depending on the part of the business. So you'd expect that to be true from any impact of tariffs.

是的。我認為最好的思考方式可能是我們給出了一系列定價結果，它們通常與我們預計今年會出現的一系列成本阻力相關，這與 1 億到 2 億美元的年化成本不同。所以我認為，如果你把所有這些都考慮進去，它就會給你一個大致的了解，我想你最了解我們的成本流動時間範圍從兩到六個月不等，具體取決於業務的部分。因此，從關稅的任何影響來看，你都會認為這是事實。

Lauren Lieberman from Barclays Bank

巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼

I was wondering if you could first just talk a little bit about where exactly the tariff pressure is coming from. I know you said it's direct and indirect, but just curious about finished goods, packaging, raw materials, if you could give us any delineation on that.

我想知道您是否可以先簡單談談關稅壓力究竟來自哪裡。我知道您說過它是直接的和間接的，但我只是好奇成品、包裝、原材料，您是否可以給我們一些描述。

Yeah, certainly. So probably just worth unpacking it a little bit further, clearly an area of interest. So as I mentioned and as a reminder, our direct tariff exposure represents roughly single digit of our overall COGS. The $100 million to $200 million in annualized costs, increases includes both the direct and indirect impact of the tariffs with the indirect impact of commodities, such as aluminum, contributing significantly to these costs.

是的，當然。因此可能值得進一步探討一下，這顯然是一個感興趣的領域。正如我所提到的並提醒的那樣，我們的直接關稅風險大約占我們整體銷貨成本的個位數。每年 1 億至 2 億美元的成本成長包括關稅的直接和間接影響，其中鋁等大宗商品的間接影響對這些成本的貢獻很大。

We've deliberately contemplated a range of outcomes to account for the tariffs for earning tariffs announced since January, including the impact they may have on commodity markets. For completeness, our revenue guide contemplates a range of pricing outcomes similar to the range of tariff outcomes in response to the headwinds at the middle of the range, approximately 50% of the headwind would be from commodities. The balance would be on what we would consider direct impact of tariffs from importing either finished goods or in some cases.

我們特意考慮了一系列結果來解釋自一月份以來宣布的關稅，包括它們可能對大宗商品市場的影響。為了完整起見，我們的收入指南考慮了一系列類似於關稅結果範圍的定價結果，以應對中間範圍的逆風，其中約 50% 的逆風來自商品。平衡點在於我們認為關稅對進口成品或某些情況下的直接影響。

Okay. Great. And then also just curious on the reassignment of product lines. related to international distribution. Just curious if you can give us some more color to kind of explain with more words what that is and why.

好的。偉大的。然後也只是對與國際分銷相關的產品線的重新分配感到好奇。我只是好奇您是否可以提供更多細節，用更多語言解釋一下那是什麼以及為什麼。

Yes, sure. I mean the international business represents less than 5% of our revenue over time. that business has developed and grown away from what was used to be the core business in cooking and baking. So now that it has more breadth across the categories, we thought it made sense to better align them with the commercial activities in the domestic business, just with the intent, of course, growing faster.

是的，當然。我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，國際業務只占我們總收入的不到 5%。該業務已經發展壯大，不再局限於烹飪和烘焙的核心業務。因此，既然它現在涵蓋的類別更加廣泛，我們認為將它們與國內業務的商業活動更好地結合起來是有意義的，當然，這樣做的目的是為了更快地成長。

Okay. So previously, all of international was reported in cooking and baking and now you're putting it in the business lines. Is that right?

好的。之前，所有國際業務都涉及烹飪和烘焙，現在您將其納入了業務線。是嗎？

That's exactly right.

完全正確。

Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

I was just hoping to see if you can comment how consumption has performed in the exit of the quarter. And then in terms of like the pricing realization that you talked about, what should back in terms of support, it seems like you're pricing it, you're assuming, of course, some elasticity.

我只是希望看看您是否可以評論一下本季末的消費表現如何。然後，就您所談論的定價實現而言，在支援方面應該支持什麼，看起來您正在對其進行定價，當然，您假設有一定的彈性。

As Nathan you mentioned but also how we should be thinking of that $20 million reduction at the midpoint of your EBITDA if you're thinking part of it is coming from supporting scaffolding these price increases with promo. So how we should be thinking of, number one, consumption as we exit? And number two, how promotional environment has been in relation to private label and all of that details that are important?

正如 Nathan 所提到的，但如果您認為部分原因是透過促銷來支撐這些價格上漲，那麼我們應該如何看待 EBITDA 中點的 2000 萬美元減幅。那麼，我們在退出時應該如何考慮第一點消費問題呢？第二，自有品牌的促銷環境如何，以及所有重要的細節如何？

Might hit these in reverse. So what I heard was explaining the $20 million EBITDA a little bit in the context of volume expectations. Some understanding of the timing of pricing and then the exit performance of consumption, I think, out of Q1 and into.

可能會反過來打擊這些。所以我聽到的是在銷售預期的背景下對 2000 萬美元 EBITDA 進行了一些解釋。我認為，對定價時機以及消費退出表現的一些理解，是從第一季開始。

So I'll start with the last one. Our lower EBITDA guide, which we lowered $20 million, as you pointed out, contemplate really just our lower retail volume expectation. The revenue guide is unchanged, but the pricing component of that really just serves to neutralize, both the direct and indirect impact of tariffs. So it's a net neutral.

我先從最後一個開始。正如您所指出的，我們降低了 EBITDA 指導值（降低了 2000 萬美元），這實際上只是考慮到我們較低的零售量預期。收入指南保持不變，但其中的定價部分實際上只是為了抵消關稅的直接和間接影響。所以它是網路中立的。

So what you're seeing is the volume flow-through, which will impact a few minutes ago. As for the price timing, it's really related to the timing of when tariffs have been announced and then our response to those respective announcements. '

因此，您看到的是流通量，它將在幾分鐘前產生影響。至於價格時機，它實際上與關稅宣布的時間以及我們對相應公告的反應有關。'

So from the first tariffs that were announced late January, early February, you'll start to see some pricing recovery of that showing up in the second quarter. And for the other tariffs later in the second quarter, you would see the sum of those.

因此，從 1 月底、2 月初宣布的第一批關稅開始，您就會開始看到第二季出現一些價格回升。對於第二季後期的其他關稅，您將看到這些關稅的總和。

Andrea, it's Scott. I'll try to pick on the remaining questions. I think the first was around consumption in the quarter. I'd say at the macro level at retail, the business performed very much like we had expected, specifically the categories at retail down to, as I think I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we outperformed the categories by about 2%, so call that flat, destocking was the net effect of what flowed through the P&L. It's a reflect on the quarter by month, I think it'd be fair to say March was actually better than my reflections or our reflections on Jan and Feb.

安德里亞，我是史考特。我將盡力解答剩餘的問題。我認為第一個是關於本季的消費。我想說，在零售業的宏觀層面上，業務表現非常符合我們的預期，特別是零售類別，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們的表現比類別高出約 2%，因此稱之為持平，去庫存是流入損益表的淨效應。這是對每個月季度的反思，我認為可以公平地說，三月的表現實際上比我對一月和二月的反思要好。

So maybe that's a bit of perspective. I think you also asked about the promotion environment. So a couple of points on that. I think in prepared remarks, we wanted to make clear that our outperformance in the quarter -- first quarter was actually not driven by an increase in promotion, just to make sure that, that point is clear.

這也許是一種觀點。我想您也問到了晉升環境。關於這一點，我有幾點看法。我認為在準備好的發言中，我們想明確表示，我們在本季度——第一季的優異表現實際上並不是由促銷活動的增加所推動的，只是為了確保這一點是明確的。

Second point I'd offer is, we do think we'll see a bit of an increase in promotion in the second quarter directly linked to some of the distribution wins and gains that we commented on in prepared remarks. And then I think third, kind of wrap up, as we think about 2025 taken as a whole, we would expect promotion to look a lot like 2024, certainly across the overwhelming majority of our categories. And that, in fact, looks a lot like what we experienced and saw in the business pre-pandemic.

我想提出的第二點是，我們確實認為，第二季促銷活動會略有增加，這與我們在準備好的評論中提到的一些分銷勝利和收益直接相關。然後我認為第三點，總結一下，當我們從整體上考慮 2025 年時，我們預計促銷活動將與 2024 年非常相似，當然涵蓋我們絕大多數類別。事實上，這與我們在疫情之前所經歷和看到的業務情況非常相似。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Robert Ottenstein from Evercore ISI.

Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

I wonder whether you can discuss Q1 and how that informs your Q2 forecast. This dynamic of retail destocking versus consumer demand because what is happening in table where is very different to what is happening in Hefty, which you have very strong growth. So I'm a little bit surprised by Q2 given that you have distribution gains and you have the benefit of the Easter shift. So why is it that the expectation is for sales to be down 2% to 5%?

我想知道您是否可以討論第一季以及它如何影響您對第二季的預測。零售去庫存與消費者需求之間的這種動態關係，因為表格中發生的情況與 Hefty 中發生的情況非常不同，其中的成長非常強勁。因此，考慮到你們的分銷收益和復活節轉變帶來的好處，我對第二季感到有點驚訝。那麼為什麼預計銷售額將下降 2% 至 5% 呢？

Yes. It's a great question, Javier. I think, generally speaking, for the balance of the year, our assumptions for revenue are consistent in each quarter. So Q2, very similar to what we're seeing for the balance of the year guide with retail volumes down. Of course, we don't have the same level of pricing in Q2, which I just mentioned.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，哈維爾。我認為，總體而言，對於全年的餘額，我們對每季的收入假設都是一致的。因此，第二季的情況與我們在年度指南餘額中看到的情況非常相似，零售量下降。當然，正如我剛才提到的，我們在第二季的定價水準並不相同。

Your observation about Easter is astute. I think that counter to that, that's balancing that out is that what we did see in some of our categories was a little bit of consumer pantry loading in the first quarter, purchasing ahead of tariffs. So you'd expect some of that to unwind, if you will, in the second quarter, and that largely offsets the benefit of the Easter volume increase.

您對復活節的觀察非常敏銳。我認為與此相反、與之平衡的是，我們確實看到，第一季在某些類別中，消費者在關稅實施前進行了少量的食品儲藏。因此，如果你願意的話，你可以預期其中的一些會在第二季度消退，並且這在很大程度上抵消了復活節交易量增加的好處。

And a follow-up, if you can comment on because it's part of what have reduced purchase frequencies because people are buying in club and buying online. If you can tell us how much of your sales do you believe are taking place online and thinking about reinvestments, whether you think that, that shift would eventually require some sort of a system upgrade as we had seen in other players in HPC.

並且後續問題，如果您可以評論一下，因為這是導致購買頻率降低的部分原因，因為人們在俱樂部和網上購買。如果您可以告訴我們，您認為有多少銷售是在網上進行的，並考慮再投資，無論您是否認為，這種轉變最終都需要某種系統升級，就像我們在 HPC 的其他參與者身上看到的那樣。

So I think the first part of the question is about channel and channelship. I think it's fair to say that the research we've looked at suggests that club has taken share across retail categories as has omnichannel or online business taken as a whole. In terms of what that portends for investment, I wouldn't see anything different than I answered earlier about, again, seeking our categories as a whole, '25, looking a lot like '24 across the overwhelming majority of our portfolio.

所以我認為問題的第一部分是關於通路和通路關係。我認為可以公平地說，我們所研究的研究表明，俱樂部已經在零售類別中佔據了份額，就像全通路或線上業務一樣。就這對投資意味著什麼而言，我認為與我之前回答的沒有什麼不同，再次尋求我們的整體類別，'25，在我們絕大多數的投資組合中看起來很像'24。

I think your last one was about percentage of our business online. And I guess what we'd share is the analysis we see suggest that retailers are somewhere in the high teens in their percentage of business that are deemed online or omnichannel and our results to be quite consistent with that.

我認為您的最後一個問題是關於我們在線業務的百分比。我想我們要分享的是，我們看到的分析表明，零售商在其業務中，線上或全通路業務的比例處於很高的水平，而我們的結果與此非常一致。

Bill Chappell from Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

This is David Holchem on for Bill Chappell. You've talked a lot about productivity and RGM and other things that are, I guess, pretty relevant to the consumer backdrop these days. But I was wondering if you could kind of give us a little bit of color on how the innovation pipeline is looking for this year, given that it's one of your drivers of accelerating growth on the top line?

我是 David Holchem，代替 Bill Chappell 報道。您談了很多關於生產力、RGM 和其他一些事情，我想這些與當今的消費者背景非常相關。但我想知道，鑑於創新是推動公司收入成長的驅動力之一，您是否可以向我們介紹今年的創新管道的前景？

Yeah. Thanks for the question. So I'll start. I'd offer -- we're feeling pretty good about the innovation pipeline. And a couple of examples One would be we have another cent added to our fabulous lineup. We are gaining distribution with that and investing behind that. That would be a good example of I think we talked about in our Q4 call, really prioritizing and resourcing innovation based on scale.

是的。謝謝你的提問。那我就開始了。我想說的是——我們對創新管道感覺非常良好。舉幾個例子，其中之一就是我們又在我們精彩的陣容中增加了一分。我們正在藉此獲得分銷，並進行投資。我認為這是我們在第四季度電話會議上討論的一個很好的例子，真正根據規模優先考慮和提供創新資源。

The second one would be a different example, which is the launch of Hefty Compostable cutlery. We're pretty excited about that because that's the first commercialization of the technology and resin work from the Atacama acquisition from late in 2023. Our assessment is that, that will do well in the marketplace, albeit this is early days. This is the first launch, but I'm trying to kind of share two very different forms of innovation as examples about what makes us excited.

第二個是不同的例子，即推出 Hefty Compostable 餐具。我們對此感到非常興奮，因為這是 2023 年底收購阿塔卡馬礦以來該技術和樹脂工作的首次商業化。我們的評估是，儘管現在還處於早期階段，但這將在市場上表現良好。這是首次發布，但我試圖分享兩種截然不同的創新形式，作為讓我們興奮的例子。

Brian McNamara from Canaccord Genuity.

Canaccord Genuity 的 Brian McNamara。

This might have been asked in a couple of different ways already, but I was hoping you could give some clarity here. Can you remind us of your pricing mechanics, particularly in aluminum foil and the lag between when you take pricing with your customers and when it actually hits retailer shelves? I'm assuming that destocking alters that typical time line. And then in this environment, would you expect private label to kind of gain share? Or do you think just maintaining price caps will be sufficient to holding branded share?

這個問題可能已經以幾種不同的方式被問到過，但我希望你能在這裡給出一些澄清。您能否向我們介紹一下您的定價機制，特別是鋁箔的定價機制，以及您向客戶定價和鋁箔紙實際進入零售商貨架之間的延遲時間？我認為去庫存會改變這個典型的時間線。那麼在這種環境下，您是否認為自有品牌會獲得市場佔有率？或者您認為僅維持價格上限就足以維持品牌份額？

Thanks for the question. I'll start on, I think, your private label question. I'd say when we look at the categories, taken as a whole, they're actually quite stable. We don't see significant changes in one direction or another. So for instance, as we looked at the first quarter, we see a couple of categories might have added a point or two of store brand share gains, and we would see other categories where store brands lost a point or two.

謝謝你的提問。我想，我會先回答您的自有品牌問題。我想說，當我們從整體上看這些類別時，它們實際上相當穩定。我們沒有看到某個方向有重大變化。例如，當我們觀察第一季時，我們發現一些類別的自有品牌份額可能增加了一到兩個百分點，而其他類別的自有品牌份額則減少了一到兩個百分點。

An interesting learning from the quarter, was for our three largest categories, so that would be foil, waste bags and food bags. One, RCP enjoyed retail takeaway growth; and two, in each of those categories, store brands actually took a step back in share just to provide some context, directly on point with the largest parts of our business, and I'll refer to Nathan on the balance.

本季的一個有趣的發現是，我們的三大類別是鋁箔、垃圾袋和食品袋。第一，RCP 的零售外送業務實現了成長；第二，在每一個類別中，商店品牌的份額實際上都出現了下降，這只是為了提供一些背景信息，直接針對我們業務的最大部分，我將參考 Nathan 的平衡觀點。

Thanks, Brian. So I think really you're asking what our cost flow through timing is and then how that lines up with pricing. I would say our costs would not flow through in a period shorter than two months because -- and they would not flow through in a period longer than six. It varies a lot by business and product category, but that's the range. conveniently. That's also roughly the amount of time it takes to communicate pricing to retailers and then start to see those flowing through its shelf.

謝謝，布萊恩。所以我認為你真正想問的是我們的流經時間成本是多少，以及它與定價如何對應。我想說我們的成本不會在短於兩個月的時間內流轉，因為——而且它們不會在長於六個月的時間內流轉。它因業務和產品類別的不同而有很大差異，但這就是範圍。方便。這也大致是將定價告知零售商並開始看到商品在貨架上流通所需的時間。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Scott Huckins, CEO, for closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權交還給執行長 Scott Huckins，請他發表最後評論。

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for your time today and your interest in our business. We wish you a great rest of your day.

謝謝您，接線員，也謝謝大家今天的時間和對我們業務的關注。祝您今天剩餘的時間過得愉快。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation

今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與