RELX PLC (RELX) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking the time to join us today. As you may have seen from our press release this morning, we delivered strong financial results in the first half and will make further operational and strategic progress. Underlying revenue growth was 7%. Underlying adjusted operating profit growth was 9%, adjusted earnings per share growth was 10% at constant currency, and we have announced a 7% increase in the pound sterling interim dividend.

    大家早安。感謝您今天抽出時間來參加我們的活動。正如您可能從我們今天早上的新聞稿中看到的那樣,我們在上半年取得了強勁的財務業績,並將在營運和策略上取得進一步的進展。基礎收入成長7%。調整後基礎營業利潤成長率為 9%,以固定匯率計算,調整後每股盈餘成長率為 10%,我們宣布將英鎊中期股利提高 7%。

  • Group underlying revenue growth of 7% was in line with full year 2024, but with a higher quality growth profile. Risk with continued strong growth. STM continued good growth and developing momentum. Legal with a further step-up in growth and Exhibitions now established at strong ongoing growth.

    集團基礎營收成長率為 7%,與 2024 年全年持平,但成長品質更高。持續強勁成長帶來的風險。STM繼續保持良好的成長和發展勢頭。法律業務進一步加速成長,展覽業務也保持著強勁的持續成長動能。

  • On this chart, you can see the first half growth rate for each business area as well as the relative sizes of the segments within each of them. You can also see that we're showing print and print-related revenues separately here. I'll come back to that later.

    在此圖表上,您可以看到每個業務領域上半年的成長率以及每個業務領域內各部門的相對規模。您還可以看到我們在這裡分別顯示印刷收入和印刷相關收入。我稍後會再談這個問題。

  • In risk, underlying revenue growth was 8%, in line with full year 2024 and underlying adjusted operating profit growth was 9%. Strong growth continues to be driven across segments by the development and rollout of higher value-add, deeply embedded AI-enabled analytics and decision tools with over 90% of divisional revenues coming from machine-to-machine interaction.

    在風險方面,基礎收入成長率為 8%,與 2024 年全年持平,基礎調整後營業利潤成長率為 9%。各部門繼續強勁成長,這得益於更高附加價值、深度嵌入的人工智慧分析和決策工具的開發和推出,其中超過 90% 的部門收入來自機器對機器的互動。

  • Business Services continues to be driven by financial crime compliance and digital fraud and identity solutions and strong new sales. Insurance continues to be driven by further expansion of solution sets, positive market factors and strong new sales. For the full year, we expect continued strong underlying revenue growth with underlying adjusted operating profit growth, slightly exceeding underlying revenue growth.

    商業服務繼續受到金融犯罪合規、數位詐欺和身份解決方案以及強勁的新銷售的推動。保險業務繼續受到解決方案集進一步擴展、積極的市場因素和強勁的新銷售的推動。對於全年而言,我們預計基礎收入將持續強勁成長,基礎調整後營業利潤的成長將略微超過基礎收入的成長。

  • In STM, now excluding print and print-related, underlying revenue growth was 5%, in line with full year 2024, but with developing momentum supported by the increasing pace of new product introductions and renewals and new sales ahead of prior year across segments. Underlying adjusted operating profit growth was 7%. Data business and tools growth continues to be driven by higher value-add analytics and decision tools. Generative AI capability is now being extended across the majority of the revenue base. Primary research continues to be driven by very strong volume growth with article submissions growing by over 20% and articles published growing by 10%.

    在 STM 中,現在不包括印刷和印刷相關業務,基礎收入增長率為 5%,與 2024 年全年持平,但受到新產品推出和更新速度加快以及各部門新銷售額超過上年的支持,發展勢頭良好。調整後基礎營業利潤成長率為7%。數據業務和工具的成長繼續受到更高附加價值的分析和決策工具的推動。生成式人工智慧能力目前已擴展到大部分收入領域。基礎研究繼續受到非常強勁的數量增長的推動,文章提交量增長超過 20%,發表的文章量增長 10%。

  • During the first half, we launched Direct AI, adding generative AI to our primary research platform. For the full year, we expect continued good underlying revenue growth with underlying adjusted operating profit growth, slightly exceeding underlying revenue growth.

    上半年,我們推出了 Direct AI,將生成式人工智慧加入我們的主要研究平台。對於全年而言,我們預計基礎收入將繼續保持良好的成長勢頭,基礎調整後營業利潤也將略微增長,略高於基礎收入的增長。

  • In Legal, also now excluding print and print-related. Underlying revenue growth improved further to 9% driven by the continued shift in business mix towards higher growth, higher value legal analytics. Underlying adjusted operating profit growth was ahead of underlying revenue growth at 11% as we continue to manage cost growth below revenue growth. Lexis-plus AI our integrated platform, leveraging Generac AI has continued on its successful growth trajectory in the US and international markets.

    在法律方面,現在也排除印刷和印刷相關內容。由於業務結構持續向更高成長、更高價值的法律分析轉變,基礎收入成長進一步提高至 9%。由於我們持續將成本成長控制在營收成長以下,基礎調整後營業利潤成長高於基礎營收成長,達到 11%。我們的整合平台 Lexis-plus AI 利用 Generac AI 在美國和國際市場上繼續保持成功的成長軌跡。

  • Protégé our next-generation AI legal assistant, which was launched earlier this year is progressing well and is being expanded across products and geographies.

    我們今年稍早推出的下一代人工智慧法律助理 Protégé 進展順利,並正在跨產品和跨地區擴展。

  • For the full year, we expect continued strong underlying revenue growth with underlying adjusted operating profit growth exceeding underlying revenue growth. Exhibitions delivered underlying revenue growth of 8%, with strong ongoing growth now established above pre-pandemic levels. Underlying adjusted operating profit growth of 9% was ahead of underlying revenue growth with margins now significantly above pre-pandemic levels.

    我們預計全年基礎收入將持續強勁成長,基礎調整後營業利潤成長將超過基礎收入成長。展覽會實現了 8% 的基礎收入成長,並且目前持續強勁成長已超過疫情前的水平。調整後基礎營業利潤成長 9%,高於基礎收入成長,利潤率目前遠高於疫情前的水準。

  • We continue to make good progress with our growing range of value-enhancing digital tools. For the full year, we expect continued strong underlying revenue growth with an improvement in adjusted operating margin over the prior full year. Over the past 25 years, one of our key strategic themes was the print to electronic format transition. Over that period, print has gone from 64% of our revenue to 4%, and we believe that this strategic transition is now behind us. We'll continue to provide print versions of our content as a service to those customers who still prefer to receive our content in this format.

    我們不斷擴大增值數位工具的範圍,並持續取得良好進展。我們預計全年基礎收入將持續強勁成長,調整後的營業利潤率將比上一年度有所提高。在過去的 25 年裡,我們的關鍵策略主題之一是從印刷版到電子版的轉變。在此期間,印刷收入占我們總收入的比例從 64% 下降到了 4%,我們相信這項策略轉型已經完成。我們將繼續為那些仍然喜歡以這種格式接收我們內容的客戶提供印刷版內容服務。

  • But we're now managing and reporting our remaining print separately, focusing only on customer service and value. We believe that this removes the management distraction and improves transparency.

    但我們現在單獨管理和報告剩餘的印刷量,只關注客戶服務和價值。我們相信這可以消除管理幹擾並提高透明度。

  • Our strategic direction is unchanged. Our improving long-term growth trajectory continues to be driven by the ongoing shift in business mix towards higher growth analytics and decision tools that deliver enhanced value to our customers. Our growth objectives remain for risk, to sustain strong long-term growth in the current range. For STM and Legal to continue on their improving growth trajectories. And for Exhibitions, to sustain strong long-term growth at the newly established level.

    我們的策略方向沒有改變。我們不斷改善的長期成長軌跡繼續受到業務組合向更高成長分析和決策工具的持續轉變的推動,這些分析和決策工具可以為我們的客戶帶來更高的價值。我們的成長目標仍然是承擔風險,以在當前範圍內維持強勁的長期成長。STM 和 Legal 將繼續保持不斷改善的成長軌跡。對於展覽會而言,要在新建立的水平上保持強勁的長期成長。

  • When combined with our strategy of driving continuous process innovation to manage cost growth below revenue growth, the result is a higher growth profile with improving returns.

    當與我們推動持續流程創新以將成本成長控制在收入成長以下的策略結合時,結果就是更高的成長前景和更高的回報。

  • I will now hand over to Nick Luff, our CFO, who will talk you through our results in more detail. I'll be back afterwards for a quick wrap-up and Q&A.

    現在我將把麥克風交給我們的財務長尼克·拉夫 (Nick Luff),他將更詳細地向您介紹我們的業績。之後我會回來進行簡短的總結和問答。

  • Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • Thank you, Erik. Good morning, everyone. Let me start by providing more detail on the group financials. As Erik said, underlying revenue growth was 7% with underlying adjusted operating profit growth ahead of that at 95. As a result, the adjusted operating margin improved to 34.8%.

    謝謝你,埃里克。大家早安。首先,讓我提供更多有關集團財務狀況的詳細資訊。正如艾瑞克所說,基礎收入成長率為 7%,基礎調整後營業利潤成長率更高,為 95%。因此,調整後的營業利益率提高至34.8%。

  • The strong operating results flow through to adjusted earnings per share, which at constant currency, increased by 10%. Cash conversion was also very strong at 100%, and leverage is 2.2 times, up from the year-end, reflecting the first half bias dividend payments and the buyback.

    強勁的經營業績轉化為調整後的每股盈餘,以固定匯率計算,每股盈餘成長了 10%。現金轉換率也非常強勁,達到 100%,槓桿率達到 2.2 倍,高於年底水平,反映了上半年的股息支付和回購。

  • Given the strong financial performance, we are increasing the interim dividend by 7% and to 19.5p per share. We spent GBP262 million on three acquisitions in the first half, and we deployed GBP1 billion after the planned GBP1.5 billion for share buybacks for this year.

    鑑於強勁的財務表現,我們將中期股息提高 7%,至每股 19.5 便士。我們在上半年花了2.62億英鎊用於三項收購,並在今年計劃15億英鎊的股票回購後部署了10億英鎊。

  • Looking at revenue, you can see here how all four business areas contributed to the overall 7% underlying growth. As you've heard from Erik, we are now managing the distribution of print versions of our content separately. Consistent with this, we have separated out the reporting of print and print-related revenues and profits, as you see here. Prior period revenue and profit splits have been restated, and you'll find reconciliations to the prior half year and full year numbers in the press release.

    從收入來看,您可以看到四個業務領域如何為整體 7% 的潛在成長做出貢獻。正如您從埃里克那裡聽到的,我們現在正在單獨管理內容的印刷版本分發。與此一致,我們將印刷和印刷相關的收入和利潤的報告分開,正如您在此處看到的。前期收入和利潤分割已重述,您可以在新聞稿中找到與前半年和全年資料的對帳。

  • We've been proactively reducing our development in all print-related activities for many years, and we set this up in the past 18 months through outsourcing joint ventures and targeted asset disposals. As a result of these actions, we've reduced our remaining exposure to print by another step in the first half 2025.

    多年來,我們一直在積極減少所有與印刷相關的活動的開發,並在過去 18 個月內透過外包合資企業和有針對性的資產處置建立了這個體系。由於採取了這些措施,我們在 2025 年上半年的印刷業務剩餘曝光量又減少了一步。

  • Total group revenue growth at constant currency was 4%. After portfolio effects in Risk, Legal and Exhibitions, and after the step-down in print exposure that I just mentioned. In addition, there were cycling and timing effects in Exhibitions, with 2025 being odd and hence recycling out year. In sterling, total revenue growth was 2% impacted by the comparative strength of sterling against the US dollar relative to H1 last year.

    以固定匯率計算,集團總收入成長率為 4%。在風險、法律和展覽方面的投資組合效應之後,以及在我剛才提到的印刷曝光度下降之後。此外,展覽會還存在循環和時間效應,2025 年是奇數年,因此是循環年份。以英鎊計算,總收入成長了 2%,受英鎊兌美元與去年上半年相比走強的影響。

  • Here, you can see the 9% underlying growth in group adjusted operating profit. We continue to manage cost growth below revenue growth in each business area. As a result, all four delivered underlying growth in ahead of underlying revenue growth. The profit contribution from print and print-related activities declined in the first half, but at a lower rate than in revenues. Going forward, we expect profit from print and print-related activities to continue to decline in the high single digits each year, in line with historical trends.

    在這裡,您可以看到集團調整後營業利潤 9% 的潛在成長。我們繼續將每個業務領域的成本成長控制在收入成長以下。因此,這四家公司的潛在成長均高於潛在收入的成長。上半年印刷及印刷相關活動的利潤貢獻下降,但降幅低於收入。展望未來,我們預期印刷和印刷相關活動的利潤每年將繼續以高個位數下降,與歷史趨勢一致。

  • Revenue could sometimes come down in larger steps depending on the actions we take such as outsourcing and joint ventures for a partner would report the revenue that we would retain the majority of the associated profit.

    收入有時可能會大幅下降,這取決於我們採取的行動,例如外包和合資企業,合作夥伴會報告收入,我們將保留大部分相關利潤。

  • Total AOP growth in constant currency after portfolio changes and the impact of print in print-related was 7%. It was a similar currency effect on profit as on revenue, giving AOP growth in sterling of 4%. With profit growth ahead of revenue growth, margins improved across the board, driving the overall improvement of 70 basis points to 34.8%. Margins were up by 30 and 40 basis points, respectively, in STM and Legal, and up by 50 basis points in Risk, but there was also a benefit from portfolio effects. Exhibitions margin saw a further significant improvement helped by prior year disposals and the 40.3% for this period, also reflecting the normal bias to higher margins in the first half of the year.

    經過投資組合變化和印刷相關業務的影響後,以固定貨幣計算的 AOP 總額成長率為 7%。貨幣效應對利潤和收入的影響類似,以英鎊計算的 AOP 成長率為 4%。由於利潤成長超過營收成長,利潤率全面提高,推動整體改善 70 個基點至 34.8%。STM 和 Legal 的利潤率分別上漲了 30 和 40 個基點,Risk 的利潤率上漲了 50 個基點,但投資組合效應也帶來了好處。受去年處置業務以及本期 40.3% 的推動,展覽利潤率進一步顯著提高,也反映了上半年利潤率正常上漲的趨勢。

  • Print and print-related are not meaningful given the dynamics of outsourcing of joint venture revenue and profit recognition that I mentioned earlier.

    考慮到我之前提到的合資企業收入和利潤確認外包的動態,印刷和印刷相關並不有意義。

  • Turning to the group adjusted income statement. You can again see the underlying growth of 7% in revenue and 9% in operating profit. The interest expense was largely unchanged with the same average effective interest rate of 4.1%, resulting in profit before tax, up 7% at constant currency. The effective tax rate in the first half was 22.5%, in line with the prior full year. Net profit was up 8% at constant currency and up 5% in sterling to just under GBP1.2 billion.

    轉向集團調整後損益表。您可以再次看到收入的潛在成長 7%,營業利潤的潛在成長 9%。利息支出基本上維持不變,平均有效利率仍為 4.1%,以固定匯率計算,稅前利潤成長 7%。上半年有效稅率為22.5%,與去年全年持平。淨利潤以固定匯率計算成長 8%,以英鎊計算成長 5%,至略低於 12 億英鎊。

  • With the lower share count as of the share buyback program, adjusted earnings per share were up 10% at constant currency and up 7% in sterling to 63.5p.

    由於股票回購計畫實施後股票數量減少,調整後的每股盈餘以固定匯率計算成長 10%,以英鎊計算成長 7%,至 63.5 便士。

  • Turning to cash flow. Cash conversion was again very strong at 100%. EBITDA was GBP1.9 billion, and CapEx was just over GBP250 million, equating to 5% of revenue. After interest and tax, total free cash flow for the first half was over GBP1.1 billion. And here's how we deployed that free cash flow.

    轉向現金流。現金轉換率再次達到 100%,非常強勁。EBITDA 為 19 億英鎊,資本支出略高於 2.5 億英鎊,相當於收入的 5%。扣除利息和稅項後,上半年的自由現金流總超過11億英鎊。以下是我們如何部署自由現金流。

  • In the first half, we completed three small acquisitions for a total consideration of GBP260 million and two small disposals. The acquisition of and ID document verification platform for business services in risk was announced in December, completed in the first quarter of this year. Dividend payments in the first half by GBP124 million being last year's final dividend. As I said earlier, in the first half, we completed GBP1 billion of the 2025 share buyback program. We deployed a further $75 million of the buyback already in July at $425 million of the program to be completed in the remainder of the year.

    上半年,我們完成了三項小型收購,總對價為 2.6 億英鎊,並完成了兩次小型處置。收購風險業務服務及身分證件驗證平台的交易於12月宣布,並於今年第一季完成。上半年股利1.24億英鎊,為去年末期股利。正如我之前所說,上半年我們完成了10億英鎊的2025年股票回購計畫。我們已經在 7 月部署了另外 7,500 萬美元的回購計劃,其中 4.25 億美元的計劃將在今年剩餘時間內完成。

  • Net debt at 30 June 2025 was just under GBP7.5 billion, including pensions, ratio of net debt to EBITDA calculated in US dollars was 2.2 times, close to the middle of our typical range of 2 times to 2.5 times. With that, I will hand you back to Erik.

    截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的淨債務略低於 75 億英鎊(包括退休金),以美元計算的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 2.2 倍,接近我們通常的 2 倍至 2.5 倍的中間值。說完這些,我就把你交還給艾瑞克。

  • Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Thank you, Nick. Just to summarize what we have covered this morning. In the first half, we delivered strong financial results and we made further operational and strategic progress. We continue to see positive momentum across the group, and we expect another year of strong underlying growth in revenue and adjusted operating profit as well as strong growth in adjusted earnings per share on a constant currency basis.

    謝謝你,尼克。只是總結一下我們今天早上討論的內容。上半年,我們取得了強勁的財務業績,並在營運和策略上取得了進一步的進展。我們繼續看到整個集團的積極勢頭,我們預計明年集團收入和調整後營業利潤將實現強勁增長,按固定匯率計算的調整後每股收益也將實現強勁增長。

  • With that, I think we're ready to go to questions.

    好了,我想我們可以開始問問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Adam Berlin, UBS.

    (操作員指示)瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的亞當柏林 (Adam Berlin)。

  • Adam Berlin - Analyst

    Adam Berlin - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking the question. I've got three, if that's okay. My first question is there's been a lot of press around US changes and the National Institute of Health, in particular, over the last few months. And people have been focused on the negative of that. But I wanted to ask a more positive question, which is on the 1st of July, the NIH change their open access policy.

    嗨,早安。感謝您回答這個問題。如果可以的話,我有三個。我的第一個問題是,過去幾個月來,媒體對美國的變化,尤其是美國國立衛生研究院的改變進行了大量的報導。人們一直關注的是其消極面。但我想問一個更積極的問題,那就是 7 月 1 日,NIH 改變了他們的開放取用政策。

  • So any research they fund has to be published open access, and they were willing to fund APCs in order to make that a reality. And then the first US funding body to do this. Have you seen through July any additional revenues from APCs as that policy changed? And can that be a positive source of momentum in STM?

    因此,他們資助的任何研究都必須以開放取用的方式發表,並且他們願意資助 APC 以實現這一目標。這是美國第一個這樣做的資助機構。隨著該政策的改變,您是否看到 7 月份 APC 有任何額外收入?這能成為 STM 的正向動力來源嗎?

  • That's my first question. The second question is also, over the last few months, you made the decision to partner with Harvey in the legal side to let them access your legal databases. Can you talk a little bit about the rationale for that decision and what you're hoping to achieve through that partnership? And then thirdly, you noted the better free cash flow conversion, which I think, related to better working capital in the first half than last year. Is that connected at all with the change in the print segmentation?

    這是我的第一個問題。第二個問題也是,在過去的幾個月裡,您決定與 Harvey 在法律方面合作,讓他們存取您的法律資料庫。您能否稍微談談這項決定的理由以及您希望透過這種合作實現什麼目標?第三,您注意到自由現金流轉換率更高,我認為這與上半年營運資金比去年更好有關。這與印刷細分的變化有連結嗎?

  • Or is that just a one-off effect and there's no kind of structural change to working capital and cash flow conversion. Thank you.

    或者這只是一次性的影響,對營運資本和現金流轉換沒有任何結構性變化。謝謝。

  • Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Okay. I'm going to hand the third one to Nick, but let me start with the first two. As you know, we've been in this primary research publishing business, parts of our company for over 200 years. And we've seen many changes in policies and announcements from different bodies around the world, and we will continue to see them going forward. When it comes to how the research publication model is funded and how people pay for it, we are here to be a service provider, and we're perfectly happy to provide any of our services on any payment models that our customers would like.

    好的。我要把第三個交給尼克,但讓我先從前兩個開始。如您所知,我們公司從事主要研究出版業務已有 200 多年的歷史。我們已經看到世界各地不同機構的政策和公告發生了許多變化,我們將繼續關注這些變化的進展。當談到研究出版模式如何獲得資金以及人們如何支付費用時,我們是作為服務提供者,我們非常樂意以客戶喜歡的任何付款模式提供任何服務。

  • And in this case, like most other changes, any one institution, any one location changing it slightly is not likely to have any impact on the trajectory that we are seeing, mean we are seeing very strong article submissions across the board in at the moment. We're continuing to see strong new sales and strong renewals. And I think this business has very positive momentum, but I don't think it's directly related to any one of these announcements of the one you mentioned being one.

    在這種情況下,與大多數其他變化一樣,任何一個機構、任何一個地點的輕微改變都不太可能對我們所看到的軌跡產生任何影響,這意味著我們目前看到的文章提交量非常強勁。我們繼續看到強勁的新銷售和強勁的續約。我認為這項業務有著非常積極的勢頭,但我不認為它與您提到的任何一個公告直接相關。

  • On the second question on our partnership with Harvey. The way we see everything we do in this company is tying it back to our #1 strategic objective, which is the organic development of increasingly sophisticated analytics and decision tools that add more value to our customers. That's what we try to do. But the main focus is on the issue of value to the customers. So if we see that something we are doing well and organic development we are doing that adds real value to the customer, if we see that the customer can actually get more value from those if we have a slightly different embedding on distribution partnership with any other provider of services to those customer sets.

    關於我們與哈維的合作關係的第二個問題。我們認為我們在公司所做的一切都與我們的首要策略目標息息相關,即有機開發日益複雜的分析和決策工具,為我們的客戶創造更多價值。這就是我們努力要做的事。但主要關注的是客戶價值問題。因此,如果我們發現我們做得很好並且正在進行有機開發,為客戶增加了真正的價值,如果我們發現客戶實際上可以從中獲得更多價值,如果我們與任何其他服務提供者在分銷合作夥伴關係上與這些客戶群的服務略有不同。

  • that's something we would explore and consider. And in this situation, it's clear that Harvey has started to go after certain types of use cases in legal environment that is where we have not traditionally been focused and that those use cases would benefit from having a fairly seamless interaction with our tools when you're operating in those tools.

    這是我們會探索和考慮的事情。在這種情況下,很明顯,Harvey 已經開始在法律環境中追求某些類型的用例,而這些用例是我們傳統上並不關注的,當您使用這些工具時,這些用例將受益於與我們的工具進行相當無縫的互動。

  • So that's why we thought if this can add value to the customer and that puts us in a place that would add value that make it more seamless to interact with our tools that would be a good thing for us to explore and to try to partner just like we do with other types of technology providers in other areas.

    所以我們認為,如果這可以為客戶增加價值,並使我們處於一個可以增加價值的位置,從而可以更無縫地與我們的工具進行交互,這對我們來說是一件好事,值得我們去探索,並嘗試合作,就像我們與其他領域的其他類型的技術提供者一樣。

  • That's what we're trying to do. If you ask them, which you can do directly, but I assume that they would say that they have a lot of tools, but it's very important that their users can actually anchor their outcomes or their results into true and trusted verified content that can be sited and attaches on, which is where our traditional strength comes.

    這正是我們正在努力做的事情。如果你問他們,你可以直接問,但我想他們會說他們有很多工具,但非常重要的是他們的用戶可以將他們的成果或結果錨定到真實可信的經過驗證的內容中,這些內容可以定位和附加,這就是我們的傳統優勢所在。

  • And also, we have a multitude of use cases that relate to the accuracy, the quality of the content and the history we have of serving many tens of thousands of law firms in doing that on a daily basis for decades. So we believe it adds value to the customer first and foremost. We think it's a good thing for us to explore, and we think it's a good thing for our partner to explore. I'll hand the third one to Nick.

    此外,我們還有大量用例,涉及準確性、內容品質以及我們幾十年來每天為數以萬計的律師事務所提供服務的歷史。因此我們相信它首先為客戶增加了價值。我們認為這對我們自己探索來說是一件好事,我們認為對我們的合作夥伴來說也是一件好事。我將把第三個交給尼克。

  • Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • Yes, no material impact from what we're doing print or print-related as far as working capital is concerned. As you say, the cash conversion in the first half was strong at 100% in the high 90s is perhaps more normal, but it's just because of the exact timing of receipts and payments around the 30th of June. It's just the normal ebbs and flows.

    是的,就營運資金而言,我們從事的印刷或印刷相關業務不會對營運資金產生重大影響。正如您所說,上半年的現金轉換率高達 90% 左右,這可能更為正常,但這只是因為收款和付款的時間恰好在 6 月 30 日左右。這只是正常的潮起潮落。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • George Webb, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的喬治‧韋伯。

  • George Webb - Equity Analyst

    George Webb - Equity Analyst

  • Morning, Erica, Nick. Yeah, thanks for taking my questions.I have three, please, and a couple of semi follow-ups to that. Just back on to the Harvey topic and digging into one of the parts there to the extent you can. As part of that announcement, there was a note that you'd kind of co-collaborate on some new workflow tools together. Could you kind of help us understand how you think about monetizing co-created products with someone like Harvey? Whose platform would that sit on?

    早安,艾麗卡,尼克。是的,感謝您回答我的問題。我有三個問題,還有幾個半後續問題。回到哈維的話題,並盡可能深入研究其中的某個部分。作為該公告的一部分,有消息指出你們將共同合作開發一些新的工作流程工具。您能否幫助我們了解您對與哈維這樣的人共同創造產品貨幣化的看法?那將建立在誰的平台上?

  • Would that sit within Lexis+ AI or Harvey? I wasn't too clear on that. Secondly, just given the resegmentation of print, could you add any color as to whether the magnitude of the print decline was similar across both STM and Legal? Or was one materially larger than the other? And then just lastly, with regards to where you're selling solutions to the US government or the agencies across the entire business of that risk or subscriptions in STM and Legal, have you seen anything notable in the first half in terms of shifting demand patterns or has that all been quite consistent with last year? Thank you.

    它會位於 Lexis+ AI 或 Harvey 內嗎?我對此不是太清楚。其次,考慮到印刷品的重新細分,您能否進一步說明 STM 和 Legal 的印刷品下降幅度是否相似?還是其中一個在實質上比另一個大?最後,關於您向美國政府或整個 STM 和法律風險或訂閱業務的機構銷售解決方案的情況,您是否看到上半年需求模式發生了顯著變化,或者這一切是否與去年同期基本一致?謝謝。

  • Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Okay, again, I'll take the first, and then I'll hand the second over to Nick here. On Harvey, we are going to explore many different ways to figure out how to add value to our customers. And as you might already know, we have hundreds of different specific use cases that we're developing today organically. We picked a couple to work collaboratively to see -- as a pilot to see how we could do it if we work together concept is that we would share -- share in it, we have work in it, we come up with the best technological way to do it as we go along and see how that works for us and for them relative to all the other hundreds of use cases that we are working on. So I wouldn't see it pretty much as exploring a pilot way of co-developing solutions for specific use cases.

    好的,我再次回答第一個問題,然後將第二個問題交給尼克。在 Harvey 上,我們將探索許多不同的方法來找出如何為我們的客戶增加價值。您可能已經知道,我們目前正在有機開發數百種不同的特定用例。我們挑選了一些人進行合作,作為試點,看看如果我們一起合作,我們能如何做到這一點,我們的理念是,我們會分享,分享我們的工作,我們會想出最好的技術方法,看看相對於我們正在研究的其他數百個用例,這對我們和他們來說如何有效。因此,我並不認為這只是探索針對特定用例共同開發解決方案的試點方法。

  • And we will see how that goes and how we can do that going forward. If we can then form a model not trying to now declare the answer or declare a model, but we're exploring this in a couple of very specific use cases that we think we can both bring knowledge to add value to the customer. And a second one.

    我們將觀察事情進展如何以及我們下一步該如何做。如果我們可以形成一個模型,那麼我們就不會試圖現在就聲明答案或聲明一個模型,而是在幾個非常具體的用例中探索這一點,我們認為我們都可以帶來知識來為客戶增加價值。還有第二個。

  • Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • Yes. So George, I mean, it is both STM and Legal seeing the reduction in the step-down in print. I think for this particular period, the product is basically take you and perhaps have a little bit more effect in STM than Legal, but I mean it is across both of them. And of course, our focus is really on the retention of the profit that you can expect that to decline, as I said earlier, over time as print declines, but the revenue could step down more quickly as we take these priority steps. So but it is across both.

    是的。所以喬治,我的意思是,STM 和 Legal 都看到了印刷量下降的趨勢。我認為在這個特定時期,該產品基本上會帶你去,並且可能在 STM 中比在 Legal 中產生更大的影響,但我的意思是它跨越了兩者。當然,我們的重點實際上是保留利潤,正如我之前所說,隨著印刷量的減少,利潤預計會隨著時間的推移而下降,但隨著我們採取這些優先措施,收入可能會更快下降。但這是跨越兩者的。

  • Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • And on government, as I think we all know, there is a lot of media coverage coming about government initiatives or changes or potential changes in US federal spending and initiatives. For us, what actually has happened on the ground has not been materially different so far this year from previous years. That might change, of course, but at the moment, your question was, have we seen it? Has it happened in the first half? No, it's been very similar.

    關於政府,我想我們都知道,媒體大量通報政府措施、變化或美國聯邦支出和措施的潛在變化。對我們來說,今年實際發生的情況與前幾年相比並沒有實質的差異。當然,這可能會改變,但目前,你的問題是,我們看到了嗎?上半場有發生過這樣的事嗎?不,非常相似。

  • George Webb - Equity Analyst

    George Webb - Equity Analyst

  • That's really helpful. Can I just ask one final question. Just on the exhibitions margin. It was clearly very strong in the first half, and I think the release called out a little bit of seasonality. Just when we think to the full year margin, is there any guidance you can give around either how you'd expect the cost base to be growing year-over-year or with regards to maybe potential like rough magnitude of margin expansion.

    這真的很有幫助。我可以問最後一個問題嗎?就在展覽邊緣。上半年的表現顯然非常強勁,我認為發表會體現出一點季節性。當我們考慮全年利潤率時,您能否提供一些指導,說明您預計成本基礎將如何同比增長,或者可能出現的利潤率擴張幅度有多大。

  • Anything around that would be quite helpful.

    任何與此相關的事情都會非常有幫助。

  • Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • Yes, George, you're absolutely right. The full year margins in are typically the only thing up to 5 points lower than for the first half, and that is just the seasonality. So for the full year, we would expect a decent improvement in margin pressure, not quite as much as we had in the first half, but there'll still be benefits from those disposals as well as the underlying performance. So something similar magnitude. That's great, thank you.

    是的,喬治,你完全正確。全年利潤率通常只比上半年低 5 個百分點,這只是季節性因素。因此,就全年而言,我們預計利潤率壓力將有明顯改善,雖然不如上半年那麼多,但這些資產處置以及基本業績仍將帶來好處。因此其幅度是類似的。太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lisa Yang, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的 Lisa Yang。

  • Lisa Yang - Analyst

    Lisa Yang - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. I have a few questions as well. Just in Legal, obviously, we saw the improving momentum step up in growth versus last year. Do you think now with printing being passed out, we could see a further acceleration to potentially 10% by the end of the year? Could that be possible? And could you sort of give us a bit more detail in Legal, the share of revenue now coming from analytics and how that has improved versus last year?

    嗨,早安。我也有幾個問題。僅在法律領域,我們顯然就看到了與去年相比成長動能的增強。您是否認為,隨著現在印刷品的分發,到今年年底,這一數字可能會進一步加速至 10%?這可能嗎?您能否向我們詳細介紹法律方面的情況,現在來自分析的收入份額是多少,以及與去年相比有何改善?

  • And what's the business of customers when the contract renewal, what percentage of your customers actually now agreed to an AI products, obviously, the new AI products? That's the first question for Legal. In STM as well, obviously, you mentioned developing the growth momentum in that division. Similar question. Do you think we could see an acceleration towards that 6% potentially by the the end of the year?

    那麼,續約時客戶的業務是什麼呢?現在有多少比例的客戶實際上同意了 AI 產品,顯然是新的 AI 產品?這是法律部門要問的第一個問題。在 STM 中也是如此,顯然,您提到了發展該部門的成長勢頭。類似的問題。您認為到今年年底,我們的成長率有可能加速至 6% 嗎?

  • And what's the actual level of uptake of AI products amongst your customers? I appreciate it's still early days. And the third one, just on Exhibitions. So you Exhibitions I established a sort of that's a new level is that 8% based on a new level of growth we should be expecting going forward? It also looks like you mentioned this is it's not like it's a new level, so just able to confirm that?

    您的客戶對人工智慧產品的實際接受程度如何?我知道現在還為時過早。第三個是關於展覽。那麼,我建立的展覽是一種新的水平,即 8% 是基於新的成長水平,我們應該期待未來如何發展?看起來您也提到了這不是一個新的水平,所以能夠確認一下嗎?

  • And how much of that is pricing versus volume anything to the change of latest demand, booking trends or booking? And any additional comment would be helpful. Thank you.

    其中定價與銷售的關係有多少與最新需求、預訂趨勢或預訂的變化有關?任何額外的評論都會有幫助。謝謝。

  • Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Yes, I'll cover the first two, and then I hand the third over to Nick again. Legal, the growth rate, as you said, has now accelerated again and took another step up to 9% on the new basis, which is the real ongoing basis going forward. And you're asking is this likely to pick up to 10% by the end of the year. The way I would look at it is, we have very positive momentum in legal with new product introductions, with customer reception of those products, with the value add that we can demonstrate and see and with the rollout of those products across the US and internationally.

    是的,我會講解前兩個,然後我會再次將第三個交給尼克。法律,正如您所說,成長率現在再次加速,並在新的基礎上又邁上了 9% 的台階,這是未來真正的持續基礎。您想問的是,到今年年底,這一數字是否有可能上升至 10%。我的看法是,隨著新產品的推出、客戶對這些產品的接受度、我們可以展示和看到的附加價值以及這些產品在美國和國際上的推出,我們在法律方面有著非常積極的勢頭。

  • So we are seeing very positive momentum and strong new sales. But you have to remember that Legal is now over 80% subscription and at the average subscription length is three years. And even commercially oriented law firms, they look at the seriously, they consider it and they try it. So I think that the momentum we have will continue to come through. It's their objective to continue to increase their growth rate over the next few years.

    因此,我們看到了非常積極的勢頭和強勁的新銷售。但你必須記住,Legal 現在的訂閱率已超過 80%,平均訂閱期限為三年。甚至是商業導向的律師事務所,他們也會認真對待、考慮並嘗試。所以我認為我們的勢頭將會持續下去。他們的目標是在未來幾年繼續提高成長率。

  • And their objective is to continue to do that, continue to add more value and to grow faster to continue to improve their growth trajectory. I don't believe it's realistic for that to come through this year. We would, of course, hope that it comes through soon, but I'm also not sure that you can expect it to pick up 1-percentage-point every year forever, but their objective is to grow faster, unlikely to be this year. Not impossible that we can do it soon thereafter, but their objective is focused on the next few years, not on any one year or being able to round up in any one specific year.

    他們的目標是繼續這樣做,繼續增加更多價值並更快地成長,以繼續改善他們的成長軌跡。我認為今年實現這一目標並不現實。當然,我們希望它能盡快實現,但我也不確定你是否可以期望它永遠每年增長 1 個百分點,但他們的目標是更快成長,而今年不太可能實現。我們很快就能做到這一點並非不可能,但他們的目標是集中在未來幾年,而不是某一年或能夠在某一特定年份完成。

  • When it comes to the roll-up and the penetration, we said last year, a couple of things that could help you on this is that when we have moved to higher value-add platforms before and we rolled them out, we said that I think Lexis+ reached about 80% penetration after about four years. That's sort of the traditional when it was really fully integrated analytics and really high value add, we said that Lexis+ AI is on a very, very similar trend. This is all by contract value that we're talking about. So that -- we are up on that rate. We were on that rate last year, if not a little bit better once we got going.

    談到總結和滲透率,我們去年說過,有幾件事可以幫助你,那就是當我們之前轉向更高附加價值的平台並推出它們時,我們說我認為 Lexis+ 在大約四年後達到了約 80% 的滲透率。這有點像傳統的,真正完全整合的分析和真正高附加價值,我們說 Lexis+ AI 正處於非常非常相似的趨勢。我們所討論的都是合約價值。因此——我們的速度已經達到了這個水準。去年我們的速度就是如此,一旦開始行動,速度會更好。

  • We're on that rate now. We continue down that path. The penetration we're seeing new sales. The vast majority are picking the AI integrated platform, the generative AI Lexis+ AI. When it comes to renewals, still the majority of the revenue that's being renewed is going into Lexus plus AI, and that relative proportion, it varies a little bit by month, but the trend is again upwards.

    我們現在正處於這個速度。我們繼續沿著這條路走下去。我們看到新銷售的滲透率。絕大多數都選擇了AI整合平台,生成型AI Lexis+ AI。說到續約,續約收入的大部分仍然流向了雷克薩斯和人工智慧,而且這個相對比例每個月都會略有不同,但趨勢還是上升的。

  • And now that we're also seeing the rollout, the early rollout of Protégé, that's likely to then start adding some to that. But it's too early for us to really declare a penetration rate or roll out metrics on that because some of the functionalities in Lexis+ AI, we can't do separately. So we can't really give you math on that yet after a few months. You said on pricing also, we are seeing the uplift, the spend uplift is the way I would look at it because this enables you to use different tools and different use cases so that people want to include those and spending uplift is similar to what we disclosed in our meetings last year and double-digit uplift. I think that answers your legal questions.

    現在我們也看到了 Protégé 的推出,早期的推出,它可能會開始增加一些功能。但現在我們真的宣布滲透率或推出相關指標還為時過早,因為 Lexis+ AI 中的某些功能我們無法單獨實現。因此幾個月後我們還無法提供你這方面的數據。您也說過,在定價方面,我們看到了提升,支出提升是我看待它的方式,因為這使您能夠使用不同的工具和不同的用例,以便人們想要包括這些,並且支出提升與我們去年在會議上披露的類似,並且是兩位數的提升。我想這回答了你的法律問題。

  • On STM, what you're seeing in STM on the AI tools is that we're seeing various similar value-add opportunities to what we're seeing in Legal. Plus it is significantly more fragmented and it has longer sales cycles. That means that things are coming through more gradually. It is more fragmented by product and platform, by customer and user type and by geography. So all three dimensions is more fragmented.

    在 STM 上,您在 STM 上的 AI 工具中看到的是,我們看到了與我們在法律領域看到的類似的各種增值機會。此外,它的分散性更強,銷售週期也更長。這意味著事情正在更加緩慢地進展。它按產品和平台、按客戶和用戶類型以及按地理位置更加分散。因此這三個維度都更加分散。

  • And so that means that, for example, if you take the first introduction we had in Legal, we have Lexis+ AI, if you do that in the US, it's about 50% of the division's revenue base. The first product we had in STM Lexis+ AI, that covered about -- less than 5% of that division's revenue base, just as an illustration. And because you have the longer sales cycles, you can also see that the penetration curves that you had on the Legal side, they are shaped similarly but take longer. So we got to the sort of the benchmark 20% uptake level in legal roughly after a year, and in scope is roughly 18 months. But we see similar type of spend uplift, double-digit spend uplift in both situations.

    這意味著,例如,如果你看一下我們在法律部門的首次推出的產品,我們有 Lexis+ AI,如果你在美國這樣做,它大約佔該部門收入基礎的 50%。舉個例子,我們在 STM Lexis+ AI 中推出的第一款產品,只佔該部門收入基礎的 5% 左右。而且由於銷售週期較長,您還可以看到法律上的滲透曲線形狀相似,但耗時更長。因此,我們在大約一年後達到了法律層面的 20% 基準吸收水平,而範圍約為 18 個月。但我們看到了類似類型的支出成長,兩種情況下支出都出現了兩位數的成長。

  • So that gives you an illustration of the comparison. We believe that in STM over time, the opportunity is significant. We have launched a significant number of tools in the first half or up until the first half of this year. We're continuing to accelerate that. It's going to continue throughout the rest of the year and during next year.

    這樣就給了一個比較的說明。我們相信,隨著時間的推移,STM 的機會是巨大的。我們在今年上半年或直到今年上半年已經推出了大量的工具。我們正在繼續加速這一進程。這種趨勢將在今年剩餘時間和明年持續下去。

  • And we have expanded the chief product officers from legal role to now ensure that we're running the process the same when using the same tools, the same processes, the same technologies in STM as we do in legal. So the similarities are likely to become greater and not the other way around over the next two to three years.

    我們已將首席產品長的職責從法律角色擴展至現在,以確保我們在 STM 中使用與法律部門相同的工具、相同的流程、相同的技術來運作相同的流程。因此,在未來兩到三年內,相似性可能會變得更大,而不是相反。

  • Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • And your last question on exhibitions. Obviously, we've now had two full half years where there's been no distortion from the recovery. And so I think if you look back at the last 12 months and do the math, we've got -- we've had a growth of about 7% to 8% in that period. Obviously, this isn't a subscription business and so there's going to be a bit more variability, but that sort of level the ongoing growth level of stronger growth that we're referring to and maybe that's higher than it was pre-pandemic as a business. What's driving that is the value we're providing to customers.

    最後一個問題是關於展覽的。顯然,我們已經有整整兩個半年的時間沒有經濟復甦的扭曲。因此,我認為,如果回顧過去 12 個月並進行計算,我們會發現——在此期間,我們的成長率約為 7% 至 8%。顯然,這不是訂閱業務,因此會有更多的變化,但我們所指的這種持續增長水平或更強勁的增長水平可能高於疫情前的業務水平。推動這項進程的是我們為客戶提供的價值。

  • Obviously, we're expanding events where we can, attracting new exhibitors, doing more for existing exhibitors including through the digital offerings. And that's what's really driving that growth.

    顯然,我們正在盡可能地擴大活動規模,吸引新的參展商,並透過數位產品等方式為現有參展商提供更多服務。這才是真正推動成長的因素。

  • Lisa Yang - Analyst

    Lisa Yang - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. Thank you.

    這非常有幫助。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Dempsey, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的尼克鄧普西。

  • Nick Dempsey - Analyst

    Nick Dempsey - Analyst

  • Yeah, good morning, guys.I have three questions left. So first of all, if we look at the absolute numbers for the new print line, that was down 21%. Can you at least indicate how much of that fall year-on-year related to disposals? I understand that of the rest, we've now got to think about perhaps an underlying amount and then chunks that are going into JVs and I can see why you want to strip that out of organic. But can you at least say how much related to disposals?

    是的,大家早安。我還有三個問題。首先,如果我們看一下新印刷生產線的絕對數字,就會發現下降了 21%。您能否至少指出,與去年同期相比,下降幅度有多少與處置有關?我理解,對於其餘部分,我們現在必須考慮可能的基本金額,然後考慮進入合資企業的部分,我明白你為什麼要將其從有機部分中剝離出來。但你至少可以說一下有多少與處置有關嗎?

  • Second question, in risk, when you look at the shopping events data that Lexis publishes, the comps become a lot tougher from right about here. So will that have a negative impact on the insurance growth in the second half? And if so, do you have other factors in the division that can balance that out? And then the third question, in terms of the potential cost and funding pressures on US universities, I know you won't have started renewal conversations for 2026 properly yet.

    第二個問題,在風險方面,當您查看 Lexis 發布的購物事件資料時,您會發現從現在開始比較起來難度會更大。那麼這是否會對下半年的保險成長產生負面影響?如果是這樣,那麼部門中還有其他因素可以平衡這一點嗎?第三個問題,關於美國大學的潛在成本和資金壓力,我知道你們還沒有正式開始討論 2026 年的續約問題。

  • But have you had any conversations with US universities where they are already suggesting that when they do come to renew, they will have to reduce their spend one way or another.

    但是,您是否與美國大學進行過對話?他們是否已經表示,當他們進行續約時,他們將不得不以某種方式減少支出。

  • Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • So Nick, I'll take the first one on the print. Our focus is on the value here and what we can -- what we need to do with customers in terms of meeting their needs for print products. and then value for us, which is all about the profitability. So it's not really about the revenue. And so when we're doing things like outsourcing, that's not a disposal, but you're going to see things see times when the revenue steps down in largest debts, and that's certainly true in the first half of this year.

    那麼尼克,我將選擇印刷品上的第一個。我們的重點是這裡的價值以及我們能做什麼——我們需要為客戶做些什麼來滿足他們對印刷產品的需求。然後是我們的價值觀,也就是獲利能力。所以這其實與收入無關。因此,當我們進行外包之類的事情時,這並不是處置,但你會看到,當收入在最大的債務中下降時,今年上半年肯定會出現這種情況。

  • But I think if you focus more on the profit and value, which is what we're doing, and that's more representative of the whole strategy going forward. Yes, I think just -- I mean, I said in the presentation, if you get the normal rate of decline in print that we've had historically, that's high single digit and if you're modeling the profit, I would certainly look at that. And then the revenue is sometimes the bigger step, but hard to forecast.

    但我認為,如果你更專注於利潤和價值,這就是我們正在做的事情,這更能代表未來的整個策略。是的,我認為——我的意思是,我在演講中說過,如果你得到我們歷史上印刷業的正常下降率,那就是高個位數,如果你正在模擬利潤,我肯定會考慮這一點。而收入有時是較大的一步,但很難預測。

  • Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • And I'll cover the risk question here. In risk, the main driver of the long-term strong growth rate in risk is the development and rollout of new higher value-added products. And as you know, we develop them, we test them, we see that they add valued and then they take typically up to five years to fully roll out and become fully installed and used in the marketplace. Therefore, we have pretty high visibility into the main driver of this business is in the product pipeline, product development and rollout. Yes, there is some additional factors that come from the marketplace, but the main driver is the higher value-add products and the rollout.

    我將在這裡討論風險問題。在風險方面,風險長期強勁成長率的主要驅動力是新型高附加價值產品的開發與推出。如您所知,我們開發它們,測試它們,看到它們增加了價值,然後它們通常需要長達五年的時間才能全面推出並在市場上全面安裝和使用。因此,我們非常清楚地知道該業務的主要驅動力在於產品線、產品開發和推出。是的,市場上也存在一些其他因素,但主要驅動力是更高附加價值的產品及其推出。

  • At this moment in time, we can see that both the big areas in risk, Business Services and Insurance are growing strongly at the core at the current run rate, and their product pipelines are strong and being rolled out strongly, and we're having strong new sales compared to prior year in both of those big areas.

    目前,我們可以看到,風險、商業服務和保險這兩個大領域都以當前的運行速度在核心上強勁增長,而且它們的產品線很強大,正在強勢推出,與去年相比,我們在這兩個大領域的新銷售額都很強勁。

  • Yes, as you said, the shopping patterns last year were high and they were high -- well, they were high for a long time, but they were particularly high in the summer and fall months. That's not directly translating into something that's the main driver of the business. It's a small contributor in terms of positive market factors, but there are also positive market factors such as insurance price changes, policy price changes, cost of claims and so on that impact how insurance companies price and market, which can incur switching and switching sometimes is correlated to the shopping volume, sometimes it's not exactly.

    是的,正如您所說,去年的購物模式很高,而且很高——嗯,很長一段時間都很高,但在夏季和秋季尤其高。這並不能直接轉化為業務的主要驅動力。就積極的市場因素而言,它是一個小的貢獻者,但也有積極的市場因素,如保險價格變化、保單價格變化、索賠成本等,這些因素都會影響保險公司的定價和營銷方式,從而可能導致轉換,而轉換有時與購物量相關,有時則不完全相關。

  • So we think that the market factors are going to continue to be good, not perhaps not as strong in shopping activity as last year in terms of growth rate, but it's still growing, it's still higher. And we believe that the risk, both Insurance and Business Services are going to continue to do very well and continue to grow strongly this year, in line with historical trends.

    因此,我們認為市場因素將繼續保持良好,從成長率來看,購物活動的強勁程度可能不如去年,但仍在成長,而且仍然較高。我們相信,風險、保險和商業服務今年將繼續表現良好,並繼續強勁成長,符合歷史趨勢。

  • On the STM side, any given year, over the last 200 years, we've been involved in this. There are always parts of the world where there are institutions that are facing particularly challenging budget situations. And sometimes, it's in several places, sometimes it's in some pockets. We don't believe that any one particular year historically has had any significant impact on the outlook or the growth rate for our STM division as a whole.

    在 STM 方面,在過去 200 年裡,每年我們都參與其中。世界上總有一些地方的機構面臨特別嚴峻的預算情勢。有時,它出現在幾個地方,有時出現在幾個地方。我們認為,從歷史上看,任何一年都不會對我們整個 STM 部門的前景或成長率產生任何重大影響。

  • We will always work with our customers. We are in a service business. We will make sure that we figure out a way for them to get the value that they would like to have from us within their actual budget constraints the way they will turn out to be in any one year. But it hasn't historically impacted the rate of growth in that division in any significant way, and we don't expect that, that will be the case this time either.

    我們將始終與客戶合作。我們從事服務業。我們將確保找到一種方法,讓他們能夠在實際預算限制內從我們這裡獲得他們希望獲得的價值,就像他們在任何一年中看到的那樣。但從歷史上看,它並沒有對該部門的成長率產生任何重大影響,我們預計這次也不會出現這種情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Henry Hayden, Rothschild and Redburn.

    (操作員指示)亨利·海登、羅斯柴爾德和雷德伯恩。

  • Henry Hayden - Analyst

    Henry Hayden - Analyst

  • Hi everyone, thanks for having me on. Three questions, if I may. So the first is in Legal. I was curious as to what you're hearing from clients in terms of the state of demand. I mean, from where we sit, demand growth, legal industry seems to have been strong into the end of the year and particularly through -- but wondering if you're picking up on more caution around that being tariff-related pull forward or if there's an expectation of that tempering. The second question is on Exhibitions.

    大家好,感謝你們的邀請。我可以問三個問題。第一個是法律方面。我很好奇您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼有關需求狀況的資訊。我的意思是,從我們目前的情況來看,需求成長、法律行業似乎在年底一直表現強勁,特別是——但我想知道您是否對與關稅相關的提前拉動更加謹慎,或者是否預期這種趨勢會緩和。第二個問題是關於展覽的。

  • I was hoping you could offer some color on the incremental growth and margin contribution as you kind of increasingly ramp up the digital tools mix in the business? And how should we think about the adoption curve for those? And then finally, on the balance sheet, I was wondering how you're thinking about leverage vis-a-vis future M&A? Are you open to larger transactions at this stage, given capacity? Or are you focusing on bolt-ons?

    我希望您能提供一些關於增量增長和利潤貢獻的詳細信息,因為您越來越多地在業務中增加數位工具組合?我們該如何看待這些的採用曲線?最後,在資產負債表上,我想知道您如何看待未來併購的槓桿作用?考慮到產能,現階段您是否願意進行更大規模的交易?還是你專注於附加功能?

  • And in the event of the former, would you be willing to go above the top end of that target leverage range kind of as you did with ChoicePoint in 2008? Thanks.

    如果是前者,您是否願意像 2008 年對 ChoicePoint 所做的那樣,將槓桿率提高到目標槓桿範圍的上限?謝謝。

  • Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • I'll cover the first, and I'll hand to ask Nick to cover the next two here. I think your comments about what you're hearing on the legal industry are probably accurate, but given what is going on for us today in the legal industry which is a significant value-add opportunity that we see to help our customers differently and the excitement we're seeing from our customer base about that new opportunity, we are focusing all our energy on how we can add more value to our customers through the new tools, the rollout of those, the new development of those, the development of additional use cases and doing them faster, that I believe that value uplift that we can give our customers is so much more important for us as a service provider than the actual -- any actual movement in the rate of growth in the industry itself. So that's where we are focused now. And I believe that we're going to continue to see increased penetration and increased take-up of these new higher value-add tools and platforms from us regardless of what happens to the exact trends in the industry itself.

    我將介紹第一個,然後我會請尼克介紹接下來的兩個。我認為您對法律行業的評論可能很準確,但考慮到我們今天在法律行業所發生的事情,這是一個重要的增值機會,我們看到它可以以不同的方式幫助我們的客戶,而且我們看到客戶群對這個新機會感到興奮,我們正集中所有精力研究如何透過新工具、新工具的推出、新工具的新開發、額外用例的開發以及更快的完成來為客戶增加更多價值,我相信,作為服務提供商,我們可以為客戶提供的價值提升對我們而言比行業本身增長率的任何實際變動都重要得多。這就是我們現在關注的重點。我相信,無論產業本身的具體趨勢如何,我們都將繼續看到這些新的高附加價值工具和平台的滲透率和採用率不斷提高。

  • Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • And Henry, your question on Exhibitions growth. it's obviously coming from the overall value that we're offering to clients and expanding the event portfolio, doing more for the new exhibitors is doing more of the existing ones. The digital offerings are very much part of that, and very much part of the overall value that we're adding increasing all the time. They're not always done separately. I mean they're part of the overall is part of what is attracting exhibitors come back and renew or take more space and so on.

    亨利,你問的是展覽會的成長。這顯然來自於我們為客戶提供的整體價值和擴大活動組合,為新參展商做更多的事情就是為現有參展商做更多的事情。數位產品是其中非常重要的一部分,也是我們不斷增加的整體價值的重要組成部分。它們並不總是單獨完成的。我的意思是,它們是整體的一部分,是吸引參展商回來、續約或佔用更多空間等的一部分。

  • So it's hard to separate out, but it's obviously an important part of the overall growth dynamic. And your final question on leverage and acquisition. As you know, our primary focus is on the organic development of the business. And there's lots and lots of opportunities in front of us than you can -- we're talking about today that we're going after. We will make acquisitions where we see that they can enhance and accelerate the organic development.

    因此很難將其區分開來,但它顯然是整體成長動力的重要組成部分。最後一個問題是關於槓桿和收購。如您所知,我們的主要關注點是業務的有機發展。我們面前有許多的機會,比我們今天談論的我們要追求的要多得多。我們將進行那些我們認為可以增強和加速有機發展的收購。

  • They do need to fit with what we're doing and fitting with that organic development, but we will make those. Obviously, the what comes up in any one particular period can vary and it is available in our overall cash flows. But the leverage range is designed to accommodate that. So 2.5 times is our typical range. We can sometimes go below that.

    它們確實需要適應我們正在做的事情並適應有機發展,但我們會做到的。顯然,任何一個特定時期出現的情況都會有所不同,並且會反映在我們的整體現金流中。但槓桿範圍的設計就是為了適應這種情況。所以 2.5 倍是我們的典型範圍。有時我們可以低於這個水平。

  • If acquisitions are limited for a period, we could go above that, of course, and quickly get it back in range because of a high cash generation. And so if it were to happen, the two or three larger acquisitions or can one period, we've got plenty of room to do that. But the primary focus I say is on the organic development.

    如果收購在一段時間內受到限制,我們當然可以超越這一水平,並由於高現金產生而迅速回到正常範圍內。因此,如果真的發生,那麼兩到三次較大規模的收購或在一個時期內進行收購,我們就有足夠的空間來實現這一點。但我說的首要重點是有機發展。

  • Henry Hayden - Analyst

    Henry Hayden - Analyst

  • Very clear thank you guys.

    非常清楚,謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Liechti, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的史蒂夫‧利希蒂 (Steve Liechti)。

  • Steve Liechti - Analyst

    Steve Liechti - Analyst

  • I've got three as well, please. Sorry. Just first one, event forward booking trends in Exhibitions. Just obviously what's going on in the world right now. Any changes that you're seeing by region or kind of vertical that you can call out?

    我也有三個,謝謝。對不起。首先,展覽會的活動預訂趨勢。顯然這就是現在世界上正在發生的事情。您認為在地區或垂直領域有哪些變化?可以具體說一下嗎?

  • That's the first question. The second two questions is just checking my math. So on your group like-for-like, it's 7% on an ex print basis. If I take the delta in print, which is sort of the difference between the two first half figures, that's GBP50 million a fall. And if I do that as a percentage of last year's revenue, that's 1-percentage-point.

    這是第一個問題。後兩個問題只是檢查我的數學。因此,就貴集團的同類產品而言,按印刷品計算,其利潤率為 7%。如果我採用印刷中的增量,即兩個上半年數字之間的差額,那就是下降了 5000 萬英鎊。如果我將其作為去年收入的百分比,那就是 1 個百分點。

  • So my question really is, why is your group like-for-like on the new basis, 8%, 7%. And then the second question, just to go out on legal and academics, specifically like-for-likes, what would those like-for-likes have been on the old basis? I'm getting about just trying to work backwards about 1-percentage-point. Is that about the right call for those two figures? Thanks.

    所以我的問題是,為什麼貴集團的年增幅是在新的基礎上,8%、7%。然後第二個問題,僅從法律和學術角度來說,特別是同類事物,在舊基礎上那些同類事物是什麼?我只是想反向計算大約 1 個百分點。對於這兩個數字來說,這是正確的判斷嗎?謝謝。

  • Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • I'm going to ask Nick to cover all of those.

    我要請尼克來處理所有這些事情。

  • Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

    Nicholas Luff - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director

  • So the Exhibitions forward bookings, as you say, obviously, it varies between sectors, between geographies but we've got a diverse portfolio, and I don't think there's anything in particular I call out. We're trending similarly. So I wouldn't pick out anything for you. The business is in good shape. And it's about the value we're providing and the -- what we're doing rather than worrying too much about the overall economic dynamics.

    因此,正如您所說,展覽預訂量顯然因行業和地理而異,但我們擁有多元化的投資組合,我認為沒有什麼特別需要指出的。我們的趨勢相似。所以我不會為你挑選任何東西。生意狀況良好。重要的是我們提供的價值和我們正在做的事情,而不是過度擔心整體經濟動態。

  • Your question on the impact of print and the 7%, et cetera. Remember the first half drop in revenue is -- I mean, it's partly a little bit of currency, of course. It's also disposals. It would not have all been in underlying, which is why we say that the -- if we had managed the group -- reported and manage the group on the same basis as last year, that the group level would have been 7%, including print, and it's obviously 7% excluding print, as you can see from these actual numbers.

    您關於印刷和 7% 等的影響的問題。請記住,上半年收入下降是——我的意思是,當然,這在一定程度上是貨幣因素造成的。這也是處置。這些收入不會全部都計入基礎收入,這就是為什麼我們說——如果我們管理該集團——按照與去年相同的基礎報告和管理該集團,那麼包括印刷在內的集團水平將是 7%,而不包括印刷顯然也是 7%,正如你從這些實際數字中看到的那樣。

  • That -- if you do that same logic for STM and Legal, specifically, if we manage and reported on the same basis, last time, which I think aligns with your math, STM would have been 4% in this period, in line with full year in 2024. Legal would have been 8%. So we have seen the step up from that to the 9%. So on a like-for-like basis, that's effectively at 1 point. improvement in legal and obviously, 2 points on the reported basis, but your math is pretty good.

    如果您對 STM 和 Legal 採用相同的邏輯,具體來說,如果我們上次以相同的基礎進行管理和報告,我認為這與您的計算一致,那麼 STM 在此期間的增長率將達到 4%,與 2024 年全年的增長率一致。合法的比例應該是 8%。因此,我們已經看到了從這一數字上升至 9% 的趨勢。因此,以同類基礎計算,這實際上是 1 分。法律方面的改進,顯然,按報告基礎計算是 2 分,但您的數學相當不錯。

  • Steve Liechti - Analyst

    Steve Liechti - Analyst

  • Right, nice.

    對的,很好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That does conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the conference back over for any closing remarks.

    謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將會議交回,以便發表結束語。

  • Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Erik Engstrom - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Well, thank you for taking the time to join us this morning. I look forward to talking to you again soon. Thank you.

    好吧,感謝您今天上午抽出時間來參加我們的活動。我期待很快再次與您交談。謝謝。