使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Qifu Technology third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's event is also being recorded.
女士們、先生們,感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加啟富科技2024年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的活動也正在被記錄下來。
At this time, I would like to turn the conference call over to Ms. Karen Ji, Senior Director of Capital Markets. Please go ahead, Karen.
現在,我想將電話會議交給資本市場高級總監 Karen Ji 女士。請繼續,凱倫。
Karen Ji - Senior Director of Capital Markets
Karen Ji - Senior Director of Capital Markets
Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Qifu Technology's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Our earnings release was distributed earlier today and is available on our IR website. Joining me today are Mr. Wu Haisheng, our CEO; Mr. Alex Xu, our CFO; and Mr. Zheng Yan, our CRO.
謝謝您,接線生。大家好,歡迎參加啟富科技2024年第三季財報電話會議。我們的收益報告已於今天早些時候發布,可在我們的 IR 網站上查閱。今天與我一起出席的還有我們的執行長吳海生先生、我們的財務長徐立先生和我們的首席風險長鄭岩先生。
Before we start, I would like to refer you to our Safe Harbor statements in the earnings press release, which applies to this call as we will make certain forward-looking statements.
在我們開始之前,我想請您參閱收益新聞稿中的安全港聲明,該聲明適用於本次電話會議,因為我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述。
Also, this call includes discussions of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings release, which contains a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures. Also, please note that unless otherwise stated, all figures mentioned in this call are in RMB terms.
此外,本次電話會議也討論了某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們的收益報告,其中包含非 GAAP 財務指標與 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。另請注意,除非另有說明,本次電話會議中提到的所有數字均以人民幣計算。
Before we start, we would like to let you know that today's prepared remarks from our CEO will be delivered in English using an AI-generated voice.
在我們開始之前,我們想讓您知道,我們執行長今天的準備好的演講將透過人工智慧生成的聲音以英語發表。
Now I will turn the call over to Mr. Wu Haisheng. Please go ahead.
現在我將電話轉給吳海生先生。請繼續。
Haisheng Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Haisheng Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Autumn is a season of harvest, and we are pleased to share that our hard work has yielded remarkable results this quarter.
大家好。感謝您今天加入我們。秋天是收穫的季節,我們很高興地告訴大家,本季我們的辛勤努力取得了顯著的成果。
Since the start of 2024, we have adhered to a strategy of prudent operations, optimizing risk performance and boosting operational efficiency. These initiatives have led to substantial improvements in our risk metrics and record profitability in Q3.
自2024年以來,我們堅持審慎經營的策略,優化風險績效,提升營運效率。這些措施使我們的風險指標大幅改善,並在第三季創下了獲利記錄。
Our solid business foundation has provided us with a margin of safety to pursue moderate sequential growth. In Q3, our loan volume stabilizes and begins bottoming out. Meanwhile, we continue to iterate on our business model to build a more open ecosystem. Through a platform approach, we are creating value for both users and financial institutions, broadening our business boundaries and strengthening our operational resilience.
我們堅實的業務基礎為我們追求適度連續成長提供了安全邊際。第三季度,我們的貸款量趨於穩定並開始觸底。同時,我們不斷迭代我們的商業模式,以建立更開放的生態系統。透過平台化的方式,我們為使用者和金融機構創造價值,拓寬我們的業務邊界,增強我們的營運彈性。
By the end of Q3, our platform had empowered a total of 162 financial institutions and served more than 55 million users with approved credit lines on a cumulative basis. Excluding the contribution from risk management SaaS services, or RM SaaS, total loan facilitation and origination volume on our platform increased by 13.1%, sequentially.
截至第三季末,平台累計賦能金融機構162家,累計服務用戶超過5,500萬,累計獲得授信額度。不計風險管理 SaaS 服務(或 RM SaaS)的貢獻,我們平台上的貸款促成和發放總量環比增長了 13.1%。
Driven by further improvements in risk metrics and operational efficiency, our non-GAAP net income for the quarter reached an all-time high of RMB1.83 billion, an increase of 29.1% sequentially, and 54.5% year over year.
在風險指標和營運效率進一步提升的推動下,本季我們的非美國通用會計準則淨利創歷史新高,達到人民幣18.3億元,季增29.1%,年增54.5%。
Our ongoing share buyback is also contributing to improved non-GAAP net income per diluted ADS, which increased 34.8% sequentially and 71.5% year over year to RMB12.4. Coupled with the ongoing optimization of capital allocation, our ROE in Q3 increased further to 32.2%, well ahead of most financial services and Internet companies in China.
我們持續的股票回購也推動了非美國通用會計準則每股美國存託憑證攤薄淨利潤的提升,季增34.8%,年增71.5%,達到人民幣12.4元。加之持續優化的資本配置,我們第三季的淨資產收益率進一步提升至32.2%,遠超中國大多數金融服務和網路公司。
Despite macroeconomic headwinds, we have consistently improved upon our past results and outperformed our market commitments through ongoing evolvement and enhancements to our business.
儘管面臨宏觀經濟逆風,我們仍透過不斷發展和增強業務,不斷改善過去的業績,並超越我們的市場承諾。
Now I'll walk you through the progress we made this quarter. Asset quality further improved in Q3 as we continued to execute our rigorous risk strategy. We further optimized our product and service offerings for differentiated user groups. For low-risk users, we tailored credit limits and pricing to offer more attractive terms, boosting user engagement while maintaining stable risk levels.
現在我將向您介紹我們本季的進展。由於我們繼續執行嚴格的風險策略,第三季資產品質進一步改善。我們進一步優化了針對差異化使用者群體的產品和服務。對於低風險用戶,我們客製化了信用額度和定價,以提供更具吸引力的條款,在保持穩定風險水平的同時提高用戶參與度。
Additionally, we optimized our funding structure by collaborating with financial institutions whose risk management capabilities or appetites complement our own, further strengthening our overall asset quality.
此外,我們也透過與風險管理能力或意願與我們互補的金融機構合作,優化了資金結構,進一步增強了我們的整體資產品質。
Within our post-lending processes, we reinforced repayment reminders for borrowers and refined the management of our partner institutions to improve collection efficiency. These initiatives resulted in a notable improvement in our risk metrics in Q3 with D1 delinquency rate falling by 0.2 percentage points sequentially and 30-day collection rate increasing by 1.1 percentage points to reach the highest level since 2022. With the optimization of risk strategies already in place, we expect our risk performance to remain relatively stable in the coming quarters.
在貸後環節,加強借款人還款提醒,精進合作機構管理,提升催收效率。這些措施使我們第三季的風險指標顯著改善,D1拖欠率較上季下降0.2個百分點,30天收款率上升1.1個百分點,達到2022年以來的最高水準。隨著風險策略的優化,我們預計未來幾季我們的風險表現將保持相對穩定。
During Q3, liquidity in the financial system remained ample. Leveraging our robust asset quality and the long-term trust that we have built with financial partners, we maintained our negotiating leverage on the funding side and reduced funding costs by 30 basis points sequentially.
三季度,金融體系流動性依然充裕。憑藉我們穩健的資產品質以及與金融合作夥伴建立的長期信任,我們保持了在融資方面的談判優勢,並將融資成本環比降低了30個基點。
Additionally, we issued RMB3.5 billion in ABSs in the quarter with issuance costs falling by more than 50 basis points sequentially. As a result, total ABS issuance for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB13.4 billion, up by 23% year over year, further optimizing our funding structure.
此外,我們本季發行了35億元的ABS,發行成本較上季下降超過50個基點。2024年前三季ABS發行規模達134億元,年增23%,進一步優化了資金結構。
We also successfully issued our first Asset-Backed Note in the interbank market, which further expanded our funding channels and investor base by attracting international investors through China's Bond Connect scheme. Given the seasonally tighter funding environment in Q4, we expect our funding costs to remain stable at current levels.
我們也在銀行間市場成功發行了首單資產支持票據,透過中國債券通吸引國際投資者,進一步擴大了我們的融資管道和投資者基礎。鑑於第四季季節性融資環境趨緊,我們預計融資成本將保持穩定在當前水準。
In terms of user acquisition, we further explored diversified channels to improve efficiency and moderately increased investment to acquire new users. In Q3, new credit line users increased by 23.8% sequentially, while average unit acquisition cost declined by 7.4%. Notably, the proportion of new credit line users acquired through our embedded finance channels increased by roughly 5 percentage points, with loan volume from this channel increasing by 85% year over year.
在用戶獲取方面,我們進一步探索多元化管道提升效率,並適度增加新用戶獲取的投入。第三季度,新增信貸額度用戶季增23.8%,平均單位獲取成本下降7.4%。值得注意的是,透過嵌入式金融管道取得的新增授信用戶佔比提升了約5個百分點,來自該通路的貸款額年增了85%。
With improved user profiling accuracy on partner platforms, both credit costs and operational efficiency of our embedded finance business improved in Q3, driving an ROA increase of approximately 60 basis points from the previous quarter.
隨著合作平台使用者畫像精準度的提升,第三季嵌入式金融業務的信貸成本及營運效率均有所提升,帶動ROA較上一季增加約60個基點。
Furthermore, we continued to explore collaborations with financial institutions to engage their existing customer bases, leveraging their proprietary traffic alongside our differentiated pricing and service capabilities to expand the breadth and depth of our user coverage.
此外,我們繼續探索與金融機構的合作,以吸引他們現有的客戶群,利用他們的專有流量以及我們的差異化定價和服務能力來擴大我們用戶覆蓋的廣度和深度。
To date, we have partnered with five financial institutions across various categories under this model, including joint stock bank, municipal bank, private bank and consumer finance companies. As these partnerships progress, they will create new opportunities for us to empower financial institutions and further extend our reach to high-value user segments.
目前,我們已經在這個模式下與5家金融機構合作,涵蓋股份制銀行、城商銀行、私人銀行、消費金融公司等多個類別。隨著這些合作關係的進展,它們將為我們創造新的機會,讓我們能夠賦能金融機構,並進一步擴大我們與高價值用戶群的連結。
In terms of managing existing users, we adopted a differentiated operation strategy based on user segmentation by their value and risk profiles. This enables us to provide more targeted offers, driving higher user engagement and conversion efficiency. We also strengthened the long-term retention of high-value users with the rollout of a VIP service strategy and enhanced engagement and insight analysis.
在存量用戶管理方面,我們根據用戶價值和風險狀況進行細分,並採取差異化營運策略。這使我們能夠提供更有針對性的優惠,從而提高用戶參與度和轉換效率。我們也透過推出VIP服務策略以及增強參與度和洞察分析來加強高價值用戶的長期保留。
For dormant users seeking large-ticket, low-interest loans beyond our core offerings, we referred them to our financial partners, which enhances our ability to serve users throughout their entire lifecycle. As a result of these initiatives, our log-in conversion rate increased by 11.6% sequentially in Q3. The number of users with successful drawdown grew consistently each month with the monthly average increasing by approximately 12% from last quarter.
對於那些尋求超出我們核心產品範圍的大額低息貸款的休眠用戶,我們將他們介紹給我們的金融合作夥伴,這增強了我們在整個生命週期內為用戶提供服務的能力。由於這些舉措,我們的登入轉換率在第三季較上季成長了 11.6%。成功提現的用戶數量每月持續成長,月平均值較上一季成長約 12%。
After a year of refining and upgrading our business model, our capital light segment has assumed a more prominent role in our business mix. Excluding contribution from RM SaaS, the capital-light segment contributed 55% of total loan facilitation and origination volume in Q3, an increase of approximately 10 percentage points from same period last year.
經過一年的完善和升級,我們的輕資本業務部門在我們的業務結構中佔據了更突出的地位。不計 RM SaaS 的貢獻,輕資本部門在第三季貢獻了總貸款促成和發放量的 55%,比去年同期增長了約 10 個百分點。
From a long-term perspective, we plan to dynamically adjust the mix of capital-light and capital-heavy segments to balance returns and risks. By transitioning from a âloan-facilitationâ model to a âplatformâ model, we are building a comprehensive credit-tech service platform that encompasses the entire user lifecycle and promotes financial inclusion. Under the âplatformâ model, we prioritize long-term user engagement. Based on real-time insights into user needs and risk profiles, we have collaborated with a broad network of financial institutions under different models, diversifying our products, pricing options and funding sources. This approach enables us to address users' credit needs at different stages of their lifecycle, while achieving a better balance between scale, risk and profitability of our business.
從長遠來看,我們計劃動態調整輕資本和重資本部分的組合,以平衡回報和風險。透過從「貸款促成」模式向「平台」模式轉型,我們正在建立一個涵蓋整個用戶生命週期並促進金融包容性的綜合信用科技服務平台。在「平台」模式下,我們優先考慮長期用戶參與。基於對用戶需求和風險狀況的即時洞察,我們與廣泛的金融機構網路以不同的模式合作,使我們的產品、定價選擇和資金來源多樣化。這種方法使我們能夠滿足用戶生命週期不同階段的信貸需求,同時在業務規模、風險和獲利能力之間實現更好的平衡。
In today's uncertain macroeconomic environment, we believe that our long-term value lies in our ability to better understand user needs, respond more swiftly and provide consistent support throughout their financial journeys.
在當今不確定的宏觀經濟環境下,我們相信我們的長期價值在於我們能夠更好地了解用戶需求、更迅速地做出反應並在他們的整個財務旅程中提供持續的支持。
Our total technology solution business has continued to make steady progress as we focus on building our âQifu DigiTechâ brand, which offers end-to-end technology solutions to banks. Recently, âQifu DigiTechâ was included on the âIDC China Top 50 Emerging Fintechâ list, significantly enhancing our reputation and competitiveness in the industry.
我們致力於打造「啟富數碼」品牌,為銀行提供端到端的技術解決方案,整體技術解決方案業務持續穩定發展。近日,「啟富數科」榮登「IDC中國新興金融科技50強」榜單,大幅提升了公司在業界的知名度與競爭力。
This year, we have partnered with an additional nine financial institutions, bringing the total number of financial partners for our total technology solutions to 14. Our solutions have already been deployed and launched with 10 of them. Compound monthly growth rate in loan volume powered by our solutions reached 14% during the first nine months of the year.
今年,我們又與 9 家金融機構合作,使我們整體技術解決方案的金融合作夥伴總數達到 14 家。我們的解決方案已經部署並啟動了其中的 10 個。今年前九個月,由我們的解決方案支持的貸款額複合月增長率達到14%。
Furthermore, our tech solutions are expanding beyond consumer credit services with the development of a proprietary solution tailored for SME lending. This solution features an integrated âthree-tiered credit assessment systemâ, which combines big data-driven risk management, user self-verification, and offline intelligent due diligence. We have already launched a pilot program for this solution with an institutional partner.
此外,我們的技術解決方案正在擴展到消費信貸服務之外,並開發了針對中小企業貸款的專有解決方案。該解決方案採用一體化“三級信用評估系統”,集大數據驅動的風險管理、用戶自我驗證和線下智慧盡職調查於一體。我們已經與一家機構合作夥伴啟動了該解決方案的試點計畫。
We are also seeing growing synergies between our tech solutions and credit businesses. Through our integrated solutions covering technology empowerment, joint operations, loan facilitation and user referrals, we will further deepen our support for financial institutions and expand user reach.
我們也看到我們的技術解決方案和信貸業務之間的協同作用日益增強。透過科技賦能、共同營運、貸後促成、用戶推薦等一體化解決方案,我們將進一步深化對金融機構的支持,擴大用戶覆蓋。
As a tech-driven company, we are committed to leveraging AI and large language models to empower our business and improve both the user experience and operational efficiency. We upgraded our efficiency-focused AI co-pilot system, achieving a recall rate of 96.3% and an accuracy rate of 98.8% in key information extraction for loan collection. This AI co-pilot system has been deployed across various collection scenarios, including user information identification and case tracking, enabling our collection team to more effectively pinpoint critical information and promptly follow up on cases. This boosts both the quality and efficiency of our collection efforts. Average daily use of the system by our collection team has more than doubled since it was deployed.
作為一家科技驅動的公司,我們致力於利用人工智慧和大型語言模式賦能業務,提升使用者體驗和營運效率。升級AI副駕駛系統,提升效率,催收關鍵資訊擷取召回率達96.3%,準確率達98.8%。該AI副駕駛系統已部署到用戶資訊識別、案件追蹤等各個催收場景,使我們的催收團隊能夠更有效地精準定位關鍵訊息,及時跟進案件。這提高了我們的收集工作的品質和效率。自部署以來,我們的收集團隊每天對該系統的平均使用量增加了一倍以上。
Additionally, we also enhanced the Qifu Report Interpretation System by integrating the Qifu large language model with traditional natural language processing models, allowing us to quickly gain deeper insights into the products of our SME borrowers. Combined with our financial knowledge graph, we can track operational changes for 30% of our SME borrowers, enabling us to offer more precise and customized financial services.
此外,我們也透過將啟富大語言模式與傳統自然語言處理模式結合,增強了啟富報告解讀系統,使我們能夠快速深入了解中小企業借款人的產品。結合我們的金融知識圖譜,我們可以追蹤30%中小企業借款人的經營變化,從而提供更精準、更個人化的金融服務。
Since Q3, the Chinese government has rolled out a range of monetary and fiscal policies to drive high-quality economic growth. At the same time, various levels of government have issued guidelines, encouraging financial institutions to optimize credit products, provide differentiated services and increase funding support for key consumption scenarios while balancing risk and business sustainability.
自第三季以來,中國政府推出了一系列貨幣和財政政策,推動經濟高品質成長。同時,各級政府紛紛推出指導意見,鼓勵金融機構在平衡風險和業務可持續性的同時,優化信貸產品,提供差異化服務,加大對重點消費場景的資金支持。
The guidelines also promote deeper integration of âconsumption scenarios and consumer credit servicesâ to enhance the consumer experience, boost confidence, unleash consumption potential, strengthen market vitality, and drive consumption.
《意見》也提出,推動「消費場景與消費信貸服務」深度融合,提升消費體驗,增強信心,釋放消費潛力,增強市場活力,促進消費成長。
Recently, one leading fintech platform has made significant progress in its rectification process, indicating that regulators acknowledge the significant value of fintech industry and that regulatory trends are largely stabilizing.
近期,某頭部金融科技平台整改工作取得重大進展,顯示監理機關對金融科技業重要價值的認可,監理態勢整體趨於穩定。
After a year of optimization, our core business has become more robust bolstered by diversified business models and broader strategic partnerships. While we remain cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook, we are confident in our ability to achieve long-term and high-quality growth.
經過一年的優化,我們的核心業務在多元化的業務模式和更廣泛的策略合作夥伴關係的支持下變得更加強勁。我們對經濟前景保持謹慎樂觀,同時對實現長期高品質成長的能力充滿信心。
This year, we further optimized capital allocation to enhance shareholder returns, executing our share repurchase plan at a pace significantly ahead of market expectations. We anticipate that total shareholder returns in 2024 will approach 100% of our net income for 2023, one of the highest payout ratios among Chinese ADRs. Having already completed the majority of our USD350 million share repurchase plan this year, the Board has approved a new repurchase plan of USD450 million set to start on January 1, 2025.
今年,我們進一步優化資本配置,提升股東回報,股票回購計畫的執行速度遠超市場預期。我們預計,2024 年股東總回報率將接近 2023 年淨收入的 100%,這將是中國 ADR 中最高的派息率之一。我們今年已完成 3.5 億美元股票回購計劃的大部分內容,董事會已批准一項新的 4.5 億美元回購計劃,該計劃將於 2025 年 1 月 1 日開始。
We are confident about the future of our company and believe that our share price remains undervalued. As such, we have decided to further scale up our share buyback efforts and continue to reduce our share count over the next 2 years. Going forward, we remain committed to efficient capital allocation and shareholder value creation through substantial repurchases and dividends.
我們對公司的未來充滿信心,並相信我們的股價仍然被低估。因此,我們決定進一步擴大股票回購力度,並在未來兩年內持續減少股票數量。展望未來,我們將繼續致力於透過大量回購和股利實現高效的資本配置和股東價值創造。
With that, I will now turn the call over to Alex.
說完這些,我現在將電話轉給亞歷克斯。
Alex Xu - Chief Financial Officer, Director
Alex Xu - Chief Financial Officer, Director
Okay. Sorry, there's a line issue there. Let me start again. Thank you, Haisheng. Good morning, and good evening, everyone. Welcome to our third-quarter earnings call.
好的。抱歉,那裡有線路問題。讓我重新開始。謝謝你,海昇。大家早安,晚上好。歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。
While macroenvironment was still challenging, we started to see tentative indication of modest improvement in user activities with more stimulus economic policies released late in Q3. However, it is still too early to call a sustainable recovery, and we continue to focus on optimizing operations, improving efficiencies, and managing risk exposure.
儘管宏觀環境依然充滿挑戰,但隨著第三季末推出更多刺激經濟政策,我們開始看到用戶活動略有改善的初步跡象。然而,現在說經濟可持續復甦還為時過早,我們將繼續專注於優化營運、提高效率和管理風險敞口。
Total net revenue for Q3 was RMB4.37 billion versus RMB4.16 billion in Q2 and RMB4.28 billion a year ago. Revenue from credit-driven service (capital-heavy) was RMB2.9 billion in Q3 compared to RMB2.91 billion in Q2 and RMB3.07 billion a year ago. The year-on-year decline was mainly due to significant decline in off-balance sheet loans despite strong contribution from on-balance sheet loans and other value-added services.
第三季總淨營收為43.7億元人民幣,第二季為41.6億元人民幣,去年同期為42.8億元。第三季信貸驅動服務(資本密集)營收為 29 億元,而第二季為 29.1 億元,去年同期為 30.7 億元。年比下降主要由於表內貸款及其他加值服務貢獻強勁,但表外貸款大幅減少。
Overall funding costs further declined over 30 basis points sequentially and over 150 basis points year on year with the help of ample supply of liquidity and additional ABS issuance. Revenue from platform service (capital-light) was RMB1.47 billion in Q3 compared to RMB1.25 billion in Q2 and RMB1.21 billion a year ago.
得益於流動性充裕及ABS增發,整體融資成本較上季下降超過30個基點,較去年同期下降超過150個基點。第三季平台服務收入(輕資本)為 14.7 億元,第二季為 12.5 億元,去年同期為 12.1 億元。
The year-on-year growth was mainly due to strong contribution from ICE and other value-added services, more than offsetting the decline in capital light loan facilitation. Excluding other technology solutions segment, the contribution from platform service further increased as we tried to strike an optimal mix between risk-bearing and non-risk-bearing assets in an uncertain macro environment.
年成長主要得益於ICE和其他加值服務的強勁貢獻,足以抵銷輕資本貸款便利化的下降。除其他技術解決方案部門外,由於我們試圖在不確定的宏觀環境下在風險承擔資產和非風險承擔資產之間達成最佳組合,平台服務的貢獻進一步增加。
During the quarter, average IRR of the loans we originated and facilitated was 21.4%,compared to 21.6% in prior quarter. Looking forward, we expect pricing to fluctuate around this level for the coming quarters.
本季度,我們發放和促成的貸款平均內部收益率 (IRR) 為 21.4%,而上一季為 21.6%。展望未來,我們預計未來幾季價格將在此水準附近波動。
Sales and marketing expenses increased 15% Q-on-Q but declined 21% year on year. Although we saw a modest sequential uptick in customers' activities, we maintain prudent pace of user acquisition in a still uncertain environment. We added approximately 1.58 million new credit line users in Q3 versus 1.28 million in Q2. Unit cost to acquire a new credit line user declined to 265 from 286 Q-on-Q. We will continue to make timely adjustments to the pace of the new user acquisition based on macro conditions from time to time and further diversify our user acquisition channels. Meanwhile, we will also continue to focus on reenergizing existing user base as repeat borrowers historically contributed vast majority of our business.
銷售和行銷費用較上季成長15%,但年減21%。儘管我們看到客戶活動較上季略有上升,但在仍不確定的環境中,我們仍保持著謹慎的用戶獲取步伐。我們在第三季增加了約 158 萬名新信用額度用戶,而第二季增加了 128 萬名。取得新信用額度使用者的單位成本從上一季的 286 下降至 265。我們將繼續根據宏觀情況及時調整新用戶獲取的節奏,並進一步豐富用戶獲取管道。同時,我們也將繼續致力於重振現有用戶群,因為重複借款人歷來為我們的業務貢獻了絕大部分。
90-day delinquency rate was 2.7% in Q3 compared to 3.4% in Q2. Day one delinquency rate was 4.6% in Q3 versus 4.8% in Q2. 30-day collection rate was 87.4% in Q3 versus 86.3% in Q2. After a few quarters of proactive risk tightening, we are comfortable with our current risk exposure, and we expect to see relatively stable risk metrics in the coming months.
第三季 90 天拖欠率為 2.7%,而第二季為 3.4%。第三季第一天拖欠率為 4.6%,而第二季為 4.8%。第三季 30 天收款率為 87.4%,而第二季為 86.3%。經過幾季的主動風險收緊,我們對目前的風險敞口感到滿意,並預計未來幾個月風險指標將相對穩定。
Under current macroenvironment and geopolitical uncertainties, we continue to take a prudent approach to book provisions against potential credit losses. Total new provision for risk-bearing loans in Q3 were approximately RMB1.63 billion versus RMB1.31 billion in Q2. The writebacks of previous provisions were approximately RMB910 million in Q3 versus RMB480 million in Q2.
在當前宏觀環境和地緣政治不確定性下,我們繼續採取審慎的方式提列撥備,以防範潛在的信用損失。第三季新增風險貸款自撥總額約為人民幣16.3億元,第二季為人民幣13.1億元。第三季度,先前撥備的回撥約為人民幣 9.1 億元,而第二季為 4.8 億元。
Provision coverage ratio, which is defined as the total outstanding provisions divided by total outstanding delinquent risk-bearing loan balance between 90 and 180 days, were 482% in Q3 compared to 421% in Q2.
撥備覆蓋率(定義為未償還撥備總額除以 90 至 180 天之間的未償還拖欠風險貸款總額)第三季為 482%,而第二季為 421%。
Non-GAAP net income was RMB1.83 billion in Q3 compared to RMB1.41 billion in Q2. The significant improvement in profitability was mainly due to better asset quality and operational efficiency as well as favorable mix change in recent quarters.
第三季非美國通用會計準則淨利為18.3億元人民幣,第二季為14.1億元。獲利能力的顯著改善主要得益於資產品質和營運效率的提高以及最近幾季有利的組合變化。
Non-GAAP net income per fully diluted ADS was RMB12.35 in Q3 compared to RMB9.16 in Q2 and RMB7.20 a year ago as proactive share repurchase created significant EPADS accretion. Effective tax rate for Q3 was 23.4% compared to our typical ETR of approximately 15%. The higher-than-normal ETR was mainly due to approximately RMB200 million withholding tax provision related to large sum of cash distribution from onshore to offshore for dividend payments and share repurchase programs during the quarter.
第三季非美國通用會計準則每股完全攤薄美國存託憑證淨利為 12.35 元人民幣,而第二季為 9.16 元人民幣,去年同期為 7.20 元人民幣,原因是主動股票回購帶來了 EPADS 的大幅成長。第三季的有效稅率為 23.4%,而我們的典型 ETR 約為 15%。ETR 高於正常水平的主要原因是本季度從境內向境外分配大量現金用於股息支付和股票回購計劃而計提了約 2 億元人民幣的預扣稅準備金。
With solid operating results and higher contribution from capital-light models, our leverage ratio, which is defined as risk-bearing loan balance divided by shareholders' equity, was 2.3 times in Q3 at a historical low. We expect to see leverage ratios fluctuate around this level in the near future.
由於經營業績穩健,加上輕資本模式貢獻度上升,本行槓桿率(即風險承擔貸款餘額除以股東權益)在第三季為2.3倍,處於歷史低點。我們預計不久的將來槓桿率將在這個水平附近波動。
We generated approximately RMB2.37 billion cash from operating in Q3, compared to RMB1.96 billion in Q2. Total cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments were RMB9.77 billion in Q3 compared to RMB8.78 billion in Q2. As we continue to generate strong cash flow from operations, we believe our current cash position is sufficient to support our business development and to return to our shareholders.
我們第三季的經營活動產生的現金流量約為人民幣 23.7 億元,而第二季為人民幣 19.6 億元。第三季現金及現金等價物及短期投資總額為人民幣 97.7 億元,第二季為人民幣 87.8 億元。隨著我們繼續從營運中產生強勁的現金流,我們相信我們目前的現金狀況足以支持我們的業務發展並回報我們的股東。
On March 12, 2024, we announced a share repurchase plan to repurchase up to USD350 million worth of our ADS over a 12-month period starting April 1, 2024.
2024 年 3 月 12 日,我們宣布了一項股票回購計劃,從 2024 年 4 月 1 日起 12 個月內回購價值最高 3.5 億美元的美國存託憑證。
As of November 19, 2024, we have in aggregate purchased approximately 13.7 million ADSs in the open market for a total amount of approximately $298 million inclusive of commissions at the average price of $21.7 per ADS under the share repurchase plan. We intend to substantially complete the repurchase plan by the end of 2024.
截至 2024 年 11 月 19 日,我們根據股票回購計畫在公開市場上累積回購了約 1,370 萬股 ADS,總金額約為 2.98 億美元(含佣金),平均價格為每股 ADS 21.7 美元。我們計劃在2024年底前基本完成回購計畫。
Furthermore, on November 19, 2024, our Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase plan to buy back up to $450 million worth of our ADS over a 12-month period starting January 1, 2025. The proactive execution of the existing share repurchase plan and the launch of the new plan further demonstrate management's confidence and commitment to the future of the company, and management intends to consistently use share repurchase to achieve additional EPADS accretion in the long run.
此外,2024 年 11 月 19 日,我們的董事會批准了一項新的股票回購計劃,從 2025 年 1 月 1 日起的 12 個月內回購價值高達 4.5 億美元的 ADS。積極執行現有股票回購計劃和推出新計劃進一步表明了管理層對公司未來的信心和承諾,管理層打算長期持續利用股票回購來實現額外的 EPADS 增值。
In addition, we will continue to distribute cash dividends under our current dividend policy and aim to achieve gradual increase in dividend per ADS on the semi-annual basis. With the full execution of the share repurchase plans and the dividend policy, we are generating one of the highest combined yields on a recurring basis among Chinese ADRs to our shareholders.
此外,我們將繼續依照現行股利政策派發現金股息,並爭取實現每半年每股美國存託憑證股利的逐步增加。透過全面實施股票回購計畫和股利政策,我們為股東創造了中國 ADR 中最高的經常性綜合收益率之一。
Finally, regarding our business outlook. While we start to see some tentative signs of marginal improvements in user activities, we will continue to take a prudent approach in business planning and focus on enhancing efficiency of our operations.
最後,關於我們的業務前景。雖然我們開始看到用戶活動略有改善的初步跡象,但我們將繼續採取審慎的業務規劃方式,並專注於提高營運效率。
For the fourth quarter of 2024, the company expects to generate non-GAAP net income between RMB1.8 billion and RMB1.9 billion, representing a year-on-year growth between 57% and 65%. This outlook reflects the company's current and preliminary view, which is subject to material changes.
2024年第四季度,公司預計非公認會計準則淨利潤在18億元至19億元人民幣之間,年增57%至65%。該展望反映了公司當前的初步觀點,可能會發生重大變化。
With that, I would like to conclude our prepared remarks. Operator, we can now take some questions.
至此,我想結束我們的準備演講。接線員,我們現在可以回答一些問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Richard Xu, Morgan Stanley.
(操作員指示)摩根士丹利的 Richard Xu。
Richard Xu - Analyst
Richard Xu - Analyst
(spoken in foreign language)
(用外語說)
So let me put my question in English. First of all, congratulations on the very solid quarter in a challenging environment.
那麼讓我用英語提出我的問題。首先,恭喜您在充滿挑戰的環境中取得了非常穩健的季度業績。
We noticed in third quarter, loan volume increased 4.4% sequentially. So what are the drivers? Given a lot of policy support recently particularly to improve the consumption and market sentiment, will the company consider more positive loan volume growth next year? What are the remaining concerns and what are the outlook?
我們注意到第三季貸款金額較上季成長了4.4%。那麼驅動因素是什麼呢?鑑於近期推出的大量政策支持,特別是改善消費和市場情緒,公司明年是否會考慮實現更積極的貸款成長?還有哪些擔憂?前景如何?
Haisheng Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Haisheng Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. Thank you, Richard. Let me answer the question about growth. Yes, we achieved good growth in the third quarter. And we have seen a slight recovery of customer demand by the end of September.
好的。謝謝你,理查。讓我來回答關於成長的問題。是的,我們在第三季實現了良好的成長。到九月底,我們看到客戶需求略有回升。
And our platform strategy had a positive effect in serving more customer base. And you know we have been upgrading our business model from a single loan service provider to a platform model. Under this model, we have created various solutions to our financial institution to serve all kinds of customer needs on our platform. Therefore, we have better a customer retention rate, and we can generate higher lifetime value.
我們的平台策略在服務更多客戶群方面發揮了積極作用。你知道,我們一直在將我們的商業模式從單一的貸款服務提供者升級為平台模式。在這種模式下,我們為金融機構創建了各種解決方案,以滿足我們平台上各種客戶的需求。因此,我們擁有更好的客戶保留率,並且可以創造更高的終身價值。
And there is more and more loan volume coming from our diversified customer channels. For example, the loan volume from embedded finance channel grew by 85% year over year. And looking forward, there is still a lot of uncertainty in macroeconomic, geopolitics, and domestic policies.
來自我們多元化客戶管道的貸款量也越來越多。例如,嵌入式金融通路貸款額較去年同期成長85%。展望未來,宏觀經濟、地緣政治、國內政策等方面仍存在諸多不確定性。
And it may be too early for us to say whether we are optimistic or conservative about 2025. At this point, we want to remain prudent, and our top priority will still be focused on healthy operating and execute our platform strategy. And last, I want to say, after several years of efforts, we have made significant improvements in all key capabilities, and we have become stronger than in the past. If more growth opportunities arise in the future, I believe we will be in a better position to seize these opportunities faster than others. Thank you.
現在判斷我們對 2025 年是樂觀還是保守可能還為時過早。此時,我們希望保持謹慎,我們的首要任務仍然是專注於健康營運和執行我們的平台策略。最後我想說,經過幾年的努力,我們的各項關鍵能力都有了顯著的提高,實力比過去更強大。如果未來出現更多的成長機會,我相信我們將能夠比其他人更快地抓住這些機會。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Alex Ye, UBS.
瑞銀的 Alex Ye。
Alex Ye - Analyst
Alex Ye - Analyst
(spoken in foreign language)
(用外語說)
So I'll translate my question. First one is on our writeback amount, over RMB900 million, which appeared to be a sizable increase from last quarter and also the average in the past few quarters. So I'm wondering what's the driver for the significant uptick in this write-back and how sustainable is that?
所以我會翻譯我的問題。第一個是我們的撥回金額,超過人民幣9億元,似乎比上一季大幅成長,也比過去幾季的平均水準大幅成長。所以我想知道是什麼原因導致了這種回撥大幅上升,以及這種趨勢有多可持續?
Also, we noticed that in the company's response to a short seller report previously, you have publicly disclosed a provision ratio for current period new loans, which was running at 3% to 4% for your both on and off capital-heavy loan models. So I'm wondering where are we in terms of those provision ratios for this quarter.
另外,我們注意到,在公司先前對做空報告的回應中,你們曾公開揭露當期新增貸款的撥備率,無論是資本密集型還是非資本密集型貸款模式,撥備率都在3%至4%之間。所以我想知道本季的撥備率處於什麼水平。
Second question is on the competitive landscape. It's a bit longer-term question. So can you discuss about the current landscape faced by QFIN from both the competition from banks and other larger and smaller fintech players? How has that changed this year? And how is that affecting our strategy?
第二個問題是關於競爭格局。這是一個比較長期的問題。那麼,您能否討論一下 QFIN 目前面臨的來自銀行以及其他大型和小型金融科技企業的競爭格局?今年情況有何變化?這對我們的策略有何影響?
Alex Xu - Chief Financial Officer, Director
Alex Xu - Chief Financial Officer, Director
Okay. Alex, I will take the first part, and then Haisheng will deal with the competition question there. So as you know, we have been adopting a very prudent policy in terms of booking provisions against the potential credit losses.
好的。亞歷克斯,我將負責第一部分,然後海生將在那裡處理比賽問題。因此,如您所知,我們在為潛在信用損失提列準備金方面一直採取非常審慎的保單。
Historically, the provision ratio that we booked are meaningfully higher than the eventual kind of vintage losses our portfolio is supposed to have. For example, in the third quarter, the new provision that I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we booked about RMB1.63 billion in new provision. If you do the math, that's roughly 4.3%, 4.4% of the risk-bearing loan volume for the quarter.
從歷史上看,我們提列的撥備比率明顯高於我們的投資組合最終應承擔的損失。比方說,第三季度,我在準備好的發言中提到的新增撥備,我們提列了大約16.3億元人民幣的新增撥備。如果你算一下,這大約佔本季風險貸款總額的 4.3% 到 4.4%。
So that's higher than last quarter for sure and also obviously significantly higher than our normal kind of vintage loss ratio between 2.5% to 3.5% as you note there. So that's a very prudent kind of provision booking policy always resulting in writebacks in most quarters.
因此,這肯定高於上一季度,而且顯然也高於我們正常的 2.5% 到 3.5% 之間的年份損失率,正如您所說。因此,這是一種非常謹慎的撥備預訂政策,在大多數季度中總是會導致回撥。
If you look at the history, although quarter by quarter, maybe you see some very significant volatility in terms of write-backs depending on that particular quarter's macroenvironment and risk performance, but if you stretch the timeline to annualized basis, look at it, almost in the last few years, average each year, we have close to RMB2 billion or somewhere around RMB2 billion writebacks on an annual basis.
如果你回顧歷史,雖然逐季度來看,你可能會看到撥回金額存在非常大的波動,這取決於特定季度的宏觀環境和風險表現,但如果將時間線延伸到年度基礎上來看,幾乎在過去幾年中,每年平均撥回金額接近 20 億元人民幣或大約 20 億元人民幣。
This year, in the first two quarters, in Q1 and Q2, total writebacks is only less than RMB500 million. So you use that annual average, meaning like for the second half, we still have like more than RMB1.5 billion writebacks need to be done. That's kind of an average look.
今年前兩個季度,第一季、第二季度,總撥備不到5億元。因此,使用年平均值,意味著下半年我們仍有超過 15 億元的撥備需要完成。這是一種很普通的外觀。
And also, one of the fundamental drivers for the write-backs, obviously, is really the risk performance improvement in our operation. Since we started to take more tightening risk standards late last year, we have shown very significant improvement in our risk metrics, as you saw in our reporting. Those improvements in risk metrics also drive up the writebacks because it reduced the actual loss of the portfolio there. So that's why have this kind of a bigger-than-normal writebacks in Q3, I think most likely, you will still see a very sizable write-backs Q4 as the reason I mentioned above.
而且,顯然,回撥的根本驅動因素之一實際上是我們營運中風險績效的改善。自從去年年底我們開始採取更嚴格的風險標準以來,我們的風險指標已經顯示出非常顯著的改善,正如您在報告中看到的那樣。風險指標的改善也推動了回撥的增加,因為它減少了投資組合的實際損失。所以這就是為什麼第三季會出現這種比正常情況更大的回寫,我認為最有可能的是,正如我上面提到的原因,你仍然會看到第四季度出現非常大的回寫。
From a more longer-term perspective we look at it, we will continue to take a very prudent approach in terms of booking new provisions. And with that, you will probably continue to see write-backs for the ongoing forward basis.
從更長遠的角度來看,我們將繼續在預訂新條款方面採取非常謹慎的態度。這樣一來,您可能會繼續看到持續向前發展的回寫。
But keep in mind, as we're gradually shifting from capital-heavy to capital-light model, the risk-bearing assets or the size of the risk-bearing assets won't be growing that much, in some cases maybe even shrinking on a going-forward basis, which means that, on a going forward basis, we'll probably no longer need to book a very large sum of provisions, even though we still maintain a very prudent booking ratio. And so that's kind of a more longer-term look there.
但要注意的是,隨著我們逐步從重資本模式轉向輕資本模式轉變,風險資產或風險資產的規模不會成長那麼多,在某些情況下甚至可能在未來有所縮減,這意味著,在未來,我們可能不再需要計提非常大數額的撥備,儘管我們仍然保持非常審慎的撥備率。這是一種更長期的觀察。
But anyway, the key point I want to say is that writebacks will continue. And if you put the line in an annual basis, it will be still very sizable writeback at least in the foreseeable future.
但無論如何,我想說的重點是,回寫會繼續。如果你按年計算,至少在可預見的未來,它仍然會是非常可觀的回寫。
Haisheng Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Haisheng Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. Alex, let me answer your question about competition. About competition, the first thing I want to say is we are not in a completely homogeneous market. Different players serve different customer groups. There is no one player that can succeed in every customer group.
好的。亞歷克斯,讓我來回答你關於競爭的問題。關於競爭,我想說的第一件事是,我們並不是處於一個完全同質的市場。不同的參與者服務於不同的客戶群。沒有任何一家企業能夠在所有客戶群中都取得成功。
But in the group that we are good at, we have a huge competitive advantage. I believe you can trust this point.
但在我們擅長的領域,我們卻有著巨大的競爭優勢。我相信你可以相信這一點。
And secondly, as I said before, we have upgraded our business model from a single loan service provider to a platform model. Under this model, we have better customer retention rates and higher lifetime value. And I'm very glad that after years of evolvement, Qifu is no longer just a loan service provider but has become a credit platform. We are more confident to deal with competition, and we believe that the platform model has made us more robust and resilient than any single loan business model. Thank you.
其次,正如我之前所說,我們已經將業務模式從單一的貸款服務提供者升級為平台模式。在這種模式下,我們擁有更好的客戶保留率和更高的終身價值。我很高興,經過多年的發展,啟富不再只是一個貸款服務提供商,而是一個信貸平台。我們更有信心應對競爭,我們相信平台模式比任何單一的貸款業務模式讓我們更加穩健、更具韌性。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Emma Xu, Bank of America.
美國銀行的 Emma Xu。
Emma Xu - Analyst
Emma Xu - Analyst
(spoken in foreign language)
(用外語說)
So congratulations on the very good results. I have a question about asset quality. Your major asset quality metrics continued to improve in the third quarter. Could you please provide your outlook for your asset quality? In the meantime, many banks are facing asset quality pressure in their retail and credit card business, but why QFIN is able to see improvement in its asset quality?
恭喜你取得如此優異的成績。我對資產品質有疑問。第三季度,主要資產品質指標持續改善。您能否提供一下對資產品質的展望?同時,許多銀行的零售、信用卡業務都面臨資產品質壓力,但QFIN為何能夠實現資產品質的改善呢?
Yan Zheng - Chief Risk Officer
Yan Zheng - Chief Risk Officer
(spoken in foreign language)
(用外語說)
Alex Xu - Chief Financial Officer, Director
Alex Xu - Chief Financial Officer, Director
Go ahead. Okay.
前進。好的。
Yan Zheng - Chief Risk Officer
Yan Zheng - Chief Risk Officer
(spoken in foreign language)
(用外語說)
Okay. Let me do the translation. I think as for our risk management capabilities, I will answer this question from two perspectives. First, from our company strategy perspective, this year, we have adhered to a high-quality development strategy, focusing on quality instead of quantity. This is the underlying driver of the improvement in our risk indicators.
好的。讓我來做翻譯。我想關於我們的風險管理能力,我會從兩個角度來回答這個問題。第一,從公司策略角度,今年我們堅持高品質發展策略,注重品質而不是數量。這是我們風險指標改善的根本驅動力。
We were probably one of the first companies to tighten our credit standards with the strongest determination.
我們可能是最早、最堅決收緊信貸標準的公司之一。
And on a technical level, the comprehensive risk management system we have built over the years can support us to quickly achieve our strategic goals. Specifically, first of all, as a technology company, we continuously invested into resources to enhance our risk management technology and strengthen our core competence.
而且從技術層面來說,我們多年來建構的全面風險管理系統能夠支持我們快速實現策略目標。具體來說,首先,作為一家科技公司,我們不斷投入資源,提升風險管理技術,並增強核心競爭力。
In Q3, we significantly upgraded our risk models. Based on our cutting-edge graph network, sequence and natural language processing algorithms, we have effectively improved the performance of our main transaction B card model by more than 3 percentage points. In addition, we built models around pricing sensitivity, credit limit sensitivity and the long-term balance risk which are related to our business strategy, giving us more tools to engage with high-quality customer groups.
在第三季度,我們顯著升級了風險模型。基於我們先進的圖網路、序列和自然語言處理演算法,我們有效提升了主力交易B卡模型的效能3個百分點以上。此外,我們也圍繞著與業務策略相關的定價敏感度、信用額度敏感度和長期餘額風險建立了模型,為我們提供了更多與優質客戶群互動的工具。
Second, we optimized the allocation and distribution models for medium and high-risk assets by selectively introducing financial partners that can complement our risk capabilities or risk preferences. Furthermore, we introduced additional data to optimize risk identification model to reduce the risk level and our overall exposure to this customer group.
二是優化中高風險資產的配置和投放模式,選擇性地引入與公司風險能力或風險偏好相符的金融合作夥伴。此外,我們引入了額外的數據來優化風險識別模型,以降低風險等級和對該客戶群的整體風險敞口。
From post-lending management perspective, our collection process in Q3 has also been further strengthened. By continuously optimizing the AI reminder before the repayment date, we have reduced our day one delinquency rate. Through our large language models, we have improved the efficiency of our overdue case assignments. By dynamically adjusting our incentive schemes, continuously attracting and introducing high-quality front-end and back-end collection resources, we have improved our collection efficiency.
從貸後管理角度,我們第三季的催收流程也進一步加強了。透過不斷優化還款日前的AI提醒,我們降低了第一天的拖欠率。透過我們的大型語言模型,我們提高了逾期案例分配的效率。透過動態調整激勵機制,不斷吸引並引進優質前後端催收資源,提升催收效率。
So at this juncture, we have largely achieved our risk optimization goal and expect to maintain a relatively stable risk performance around this level in the near future assuming a muted macro environment.
因此,目前我們已經基本實現了風險優化目標,並且預計在宏觀環境平穩的情況下,不久的將來風險表現將維持在這一水平附近相對穩定。
Operator
Operator
Cindy Wang, China Renaissance.
Cindy Wang,中華復興。
Cindy Wang - Analyst
Cindy Wang - Analyst
(spoken in foreign language)
(用外語說)
My question is for the shareholder return. The pace of share buyback has been quite fast this year. And you also announced another USD450 million share repurchase plan. Could you give us some color on the pace of buyback in 2025? And any consideration for the repurchase price?
我的問題是關於股東回報。今年股票回購的步伐相當快。此外,你們也宣布了另一項4.5億美元的股票回購計畫。您能否向我們介紹 2025 年的回購步伐?回購價格有什麼考量嗎?
Haisheng Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Haisheng Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Cindy. Yes. We have been very determined to finish our current share repurchase program this year. When fully executed, we will spend close to 100% of last year's profit to buy back shares and pay cash dividends in 2024. This buyback will effectively reduce our share count by about 12%.
謝謝你,辛蒂。是的。我們決心在今年完成目前的股票回購計畫。一旦全部實施,我們將花費去年利潤的近100%來回購股票並在2024年支付現金股利。此次回購將有效減少我們的股份數量約 12%。
In the third quarter, we achieved 71.5% EPADS growth year over year. Since we are very confident about our strategy and execution, we believe our shares are still significantly undervalued. So we will continue to prioritize share buybacks among all capital allocation tools. We believe this is the most efficient capital allocation strategy for now, which will significantly further reduce our share count, improve EPADS and maximize shareholder returns.
第三季度,我們的EPADS年增71.5%。由於我們對我們的策略和執行非常有信心,我們相信我們的股票仍然被嚴重低估。因此,我們將繼續在所有資本配置工具中優先考慮股票回購。我們相信這是目前最有效的資本配置策略,它將進一步顯著減少我們的股份數量,改善 EPADS 並最大化股東回報。
Based on this, the Board of Directors has approved a new USD450 million share buyback program that is set to start on January 1, 2025. We will carry out this plan firmly in the coming year.
基於此,董事會批准了一項新的4.5億美元股票回購計劃,將於2025年1月1日開始。新的一年,我們將堅定不移地貫徹落實這項計畫。
Alex Xu - Chief Financial Officer, Director
Alex Xu - Chief Financial Officer, Director
Yes. And Cindy, I just want to add up a little bit to your question. And regarding the price we are looking at, we don't have a really kind of a set price target for the repurchase, even though our shares have been moving positively in the last few months. But if you look at it on a forward PE basis, it still looks very attractive based on the current estimate, which probably looks like below 5x in forward PE. To us, that's still a very attractive valuation. So we will continue to be proactive in the market.
是的。辛迪,我只想對你的問題做一點補充。關於我們所考慮的價格,儘管我們的股價在過去幾個月一直呈現積極走勢,但我們並沒有為回購設定一個真正的價格目標。但如果從預期本益比來看,根據目前的估計,它仍然非常有吸引力,預期本益比可能低於 5 倍。對我們來說,這仍然是一個非常有吸引力的估值。因此,我們將繼續在市場上積極主動。
And for the 2025 plan, the basic assumption is that as we execute the plan and continue to deliver solid results, the share price will reflect that positive momentum. So we most likely will continue to take a similar approach as we did in 2024, meaning we will put more effort on the upfront, hopefully, to buy as much as we can when the valuations are still very attractive. So that's how we look at the next year's action.
對於 2025 年計劃,基本假設是,隨著我們執行計劃並繼續取得穩健的成果,股價將反映出這種積極的勢頭。因此,我們很可能會繼續採取與 2024 年類似的方法,這意味著我們將在前期投入更多精力,希望在估值仍然非常有吸引力時盡可能多地購買。這就是我們對明年行動的看法。
Operator
Operator
In the interest of time, we will now take the last question. Yada Li, CICC.
由於時間關係,我們現在來回答最後一個問題。中金公司,李亞達。
Yada Li - Analyst
Yada Li - Analyst
(spoken in foreign language)
(用外語說)
Congrats to the excellent results and thanks for taking my questions. We noticed that the take rate continued to improve from 4.4% last quarter. I was wondering what are the main factors that drove the increase. And considering the potential improvement of credit costs and funding costs, do we expect to see a further increase of take rate next year? And looking forward, how to view the long-term sustainable take rate?
恭喜您取得優異的成績,感謝您回答我的問題。我們注意到,接受率從上一季的 4.4% 持續改善。我想知道推動這一成長的主要因素是什麼。考慮到信貸成本和融資成本的潛在改善,我們是否預期明年的接受率會進一步上升?展望未來,如何看待長期可持續的接受率?
Alex Xu - Chief Financial Officer, Director
Alex Xu - Chief Financial Officer, Director
Okay. Thank you, Yada. I will take this one. Yes, we did see a quite significant improvement in take rate in Q3. As you mentioned, basically, there are three main drivers.
好的。謝謝你,Yada。我要這個。是的,我們確實看到第三季的接受率有相當顯著的提高。正如您所說,基本上有三個主要驅動因素。
First and foremost, it's really the continued meaningful improvement on the risk side, which basically reduced the overall credit cost. On the P&L financial statement, it is basically shown up as the provision write-backs. As we mentioned or discussed earlier, there's a significant writeback in Q3 there.
首先,風險方面確實持續取得了有意義的改善,這從根本上降低了整體信貸成本。在損益財務報表上,它基本上表現為撥備回撥。正如我們之前提到或討論過的,第三季度出現了大幅回撤。
And then the second contributor to the take rate improvement is really the funding cost. With the macro environment and the ample supply of liquidity, we continued to drive funding costs further lower, and so that's the second contributor.
那麼,提高接受率的第二個因素其實是融資成本。在宏觀環境和流動性供應充足的條件下,我們持續推動融資成本進一步降低,這是第二個因素。
And the third one is really the mix change happened in the previous couple of quarters that had the deferred impact on the Q3 and to a certain degree, Q4 as well. So that's the three main reasons why you see a significant improvement on the take rate improvement.
第三個因素是前幾季發生的組合變化,對第三季度產生了延遲影響,並且在一定程度上對第四季度也產生了延遲影響。這就是您看到接受率顯著提高的三個主要原因。
If you look at Q4, based on the guidance we provided, you're probably looking at a similar take rate versus Q3 there, for the similar kind of reasons, the risk, the funding cost and the deferred impact on the mix change.
如果您根據我們提供的指導來查看第四季度,您可能會看到與第三季度類似的接受率,原因類似,包括風險、融資成本和對組合變化的遞延影響。
Putting a longer term, I think the risk and the funding side of the contribution will remain, meaning that we will probably maintain a pretty good risk performance for the next year. And assuming the macro environment is not changing dramatically, then the overall funding environment will probably still be relatively friendly.
從長遠來看,我認為風險和資金貢獻方面仍將存在,這意味著我們明年可能會保持相當不錯的風險表現。假設宏觀環境沒有發生巨大變化,那麼整體融資環境可能仍然會相對友善。
So those two factors will remain, but the third factor, the mix change, the deferred impact on the mix change, we're probably gradually facing a cooling off just because we are not expecting a very significant mix change at least in the near term.
因此,這兩個因素將繼續存在,但第三個因素,即混合變化,對混合變化的延遲影響,我們可能正逐漸面臨降溫,因為我們預計至少在短期內不會出現非常顯著的混合變化。
But on a full-year basis, if you do the math, this year, most likely on a full-year basis, we're looking at about 5% overall take rate for the full year. And based on that, next year, we probably will still see some improvement off the full-year basis, meaning like this year supply, next year will probably a little bit over 5% in terms of the net take rate there. So that's how we look at 2025.
但從全年來看,如果你計算一下,今年,很可能以全年來看,我們預計全年的整體接受率約為 5%。基於此,明年我們可能仍會看到全年供應量有所改善,這意味著像今年的供應量一樣,明年的淨吸收率可能會略高於 5%。這就是我們對 2025 年的展望。
Longer term, it really depends on how you project the macro environment. If we start to see some kind of a sustainable recovery in macro economy in the long run, we definitely will benefit from that kind of a macro change. But at this point, as we mentioned earlier in the call, we're not calling for that recovery yet. We are still planning a relatively muted environment for 2025.
從長遠來看,這實際上取決於你如何預測宏觀環境。如果我們開始看到宏觀經濟長期出現某種可持續的復甦,我們肯定會從這種宏觀變化中受益。但目前,正如我們之前在電話會議中提到的那樣,我們還沒有呼籲復甦。我們仍在為2025年規劃一個相對平靜的環境。
Operator
Operator
We have no more questions at this time. I would like to hand the call back to management for closing.
目前我們沒有其他問題。我想將電話交還給管理階層以便結束通話。
Alex Xu - Chief Financial Officer, Director
Alex Xu - Chief Financial Officer, Director
Okay. Thank you, everyone, joining us. If you have any additional questions, feel free to contact us offline. Thank you.
好的。謝謝大家加入我們。如果您有任何其他問題,請隨時離線與我們聯繫。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。