QuidelOrtho Corp (QDEL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the QuidelOrtho Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participant lines are in a listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加 QuidelOrtho 2024 年第四季和全年財務業績電話會議和網路廣播。此時，所有參與者線路均處於只聽模式。（操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the call over to Juliet Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁朱麗葉坎寧安 (Juliet Cunningham)。

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝。大家下午好。

Thanks for joining the QuidelOrtho's fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results conference call. With me today are Brian Blaser, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Busky, Chief Financial Officer. This conference call is being simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations page of our website. To aid in the discussion, we posted a supplemental presentation on the IR page that will be referenced throughout this call.

感謝您參加 QuidelOrtho 2024 年第四季和全年財務業績電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Brian Blaser；以及財務長喬·布斯基（Joe Busky）。本次電話會議將在我們網站的投資者關係頁面同步進行網路直播。為了幫助討論，我們在 IR 頁面上發布了補充演示文稿，將在整個通話過程中參考。

This conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Statements that are not strictly historical, including the company's expectations, plans, financial guidance, future performance, and prospects, are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, assumptions, and other factors.

本次電話會議包含 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案所定義的前瞻性陳述。非嚴格歷史性的陳述，包括公司的預期、計劃、財務指導、未來業績和前景，都是前瞻性的陳述，受某些風險和不確定性、假設和其他因素的影響。

Actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. Information about potential factors that could affect our actual results is available on our annual report on Form 10-K for the 2023 fiscal year and subsequent reports filed with the SEC, including the Risk Factors section.

實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中所表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。有關可能影響我們實際結果的潛在因素的信息，請參閱我們 2023 財年的 10-K 表年度報告以及隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中，包括“風險因素”部分。

Forward looking statements are made as of today, February 12, 2025, and we assume no obligation to update any forward looking statement except as required by law.

前瞻性陳述截至今天（2025 年 2 月 12 日）做出，除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

In addition, today's call includes discussion of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables reconciling these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings release and the supplemental presentation, which are on the Investor Relations page of our website at quidelortho.com. Lastly, unless stated otherwise, all year-over-year revenue growth rates given on today's call are given on a comparable constant-currency basis.

此外，今天的電話會議還包括討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整表可在我們的收益報告和補充報告中找到，這些報告和補充報告位於我們網站 quidelortho.com 的投資者關係頁面上。最後，除非另有說明，今天電話會議上給出的所有同比收入增長率均以可比的固定匯率計算。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Brian Blaser.

現在我想將電話轉給我們的執行長 Brian Blaser。

Thanks, Juliette. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call today.

謝謝，朱麗葉。大家下午好，感謝您今天的電話會議。

We finished the year with solid top-line results that were in line with our 2024 financial guidance, and I'm encouraged by the progress that we're making in improving our cost structure and focusing the business to elevate profitable growth. Today, I'll discuss our 2024 operational highlights and key priorities for 2025, and then Joe will provide greater detail, as we share our 2025 full year guidance.

我們以穩健的營收業績結束了這一財年，這與我們的 2024 年財務指引一致，而且我們在改善成本結構和集中業務以提高盈利增長方面所取得的進展令我感到鼓舞。今天，我將討論我們 2024 年的營運亮點和 2025 年的關鍵優先事項，然後 Joe 將提供更詳細的信息，並分享我們 2025 年全年的指導。

As I mentioned in previous calls, I've been driving an operating model designed to empower our leadership team to focus on growth and profitability. As part of this strategy, I made key changes to the leadership team to ensure we have the right mix of talent and expertise to move our vision forward.

正如我在之前的電話會議中提到的，我一直在推動一種營運模式，旨在讓我們的領導團隊專注於成長和獲利。作為該策略的一部分，我對領導團隊進行了重大調整，以確保我們擁有合適的人才和專業知識組合來推進我們的願景。

Having the right leadership in place is essential for driving innovation, improving operational efficiency, and positioning the company for success. Our efforts to prioritize high impact opportunities are showing early signs of progress, as reflected in our second half 2024 results.

擁有正確的領導力對於推動創新、提高營運效率和使公司成功至關重要。我們優先考慮高影響力機會的努力已顯示出進展的早期跡象，這反映在我們 2024 年下半年的業績中。

Turning to the fourth quarter of 2024, we saw ongoing contribution from our labs, Immunohematology and Point of Care businesses. Total reported revenue in Q4 was $708 million which decreased by 4% year-over-year due to the expected declines in COVID and flu testing revenues. Importantly, over 90% of our Q4 sales were recurring, driven by reagents, consumables and service.

展望 2024 年第四季度，我們看到實驗室、免疫血液學和護理點業務的持續貢獻。第四季總報告收入為 7.08 億美元，年減 4%，原因是預計 COVID 和流感檢測收入下降。重要的是，我們第四季 90% 以上的銷售額都是經常性的，主要由試劑、消耗品和服務推動。

And I'd mention that, all growth rates I'm about to give are in constant currency. Our Labs business, which is roughly 50% of our total company revenues, achieved growth of 4% on a reported and constant currency basis excluding COVID and non-core revenue. This performance underscores its durable and predictable business model with strong brand recognition, long-term contracts, and a loyal customer base.

我要說的是，我即將給出的所有成長率都是以固定貨幣計算的。我們的實驗室業務約占公司總收入的 50%，按報告和固定匯率計算（不包括 COVID 和非核心收入），實現了 4% 的成長。這項業績凸顯了其持久且可預測的商業模式，具有強大的品牌知名度、長期合約和忠實的客戶群。

Within transfusion medicine, our Immunohematology business continued to drive stable growth of 4% during the fourth quarter. And despite challenging year-over-year comparisons from the decline of COVID testing, our Point of Care business continues its leadership position with Sofia's large global installed base and our flu COVID combo test.

在輸血醫學領域，我們的免疫血液學業務在第四季度繼續實現 4% 的穩定成長。儘管由於 COVID 檢測數量的下降，與去年同期相比具有挑戰性，但憑藉索菲亞龐大的全球安裝基礎和我們的流感 COVID 組合檢測，我們的即時診斷業務繼續保持領先地位。

And lastly, in our molecular diagnostics business, we initiated clinical trials for our Savanna Respiratory Panel last month, which coincided with the ramp up of this year's respiratory season. We expect to complete our trials over the next few months as the season runs its normal course.

最後，在我們的分子診斷業務中，我們上個月啟動了 Savanna 呼吸道小組的臨床試驗，這恰逢今年呼吸道疾病季節的到來。隨著賽季的正常進行，我們預計將在接下來的幾個月內完成試驗。

Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter 2024 was $150 million, which represents 21% adjusted EBITDA margin and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.63. As we continue to move our business forward, I've spoken about our three central priorities: delivering the best experience from our customers, prioritizing execution on a small number of high impact programs, and driving profitable sustainable growth.

2024 年第四季的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.5 億美元，代表調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 21%，調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.63 美元。隨著我們業務的不斷向前發展，我談到了我們的三個核心重點：為客戶提供最佳體驗、優先執行少數影響深遠的項目、以及推動盈利的可持續增長。

These priorities include improving R&D productivity and the strength of our platform content as well as development of new systems that will enable us to strengthen our global market position. In addition, we continue to drive cost reduction initiatives that we started in 2024, including realizing the remainder of our previously announced cost savings by midyear and implementing new actions focused mainly on procurement and gross margin improvement.

這些優先事項包括提高研發效率和平台內容實力，以及開發能讓我們加強全球市場地位的新系統。此外，我們將繼續推動 2024 年啟動的成本削減計劃，包括在年中之前實現先前宣布的剩餘成本節約，並實施主要針對採購和毛利率提高的新行動。

We expect these programs to drive margin growth over the next few years that will achieve benchmark levels of profitability. In closing, I have been impressed with our team and grateful for their support as we made difficult but necessary changes this past year. Despite challenging circumstances, our team has been resilient and determined to build an innovative enduring company that's focused on supporting our customers and their needs. I look forward to sharing our progress on our operational and financial results as we move through 2025.

我們預計這些計劃將在未來幾年推動利潤成長，從而實現基準獲利水準。最後，我們的團隊給我留下了深刻的印象，我感謝他們在我們去年做出艱難但必要的改變時給予的支持。儘管面臨挑戰，我們的團隊仍然堅韌不拔，決心建立一家創新且持久的公司，專注於支持我們的客戶及其需求。我期待在 2025 年分享我們在營運和財務表現方面的進展。

And with that, I will hand it over to Joe to discuss our 2024 financial performance and guidance for 2025.

接下來，我將把主題交給喬，討論我們 2024 年的財務表現和 2025 年的指導。

Okay. Thanks, Brian, and hello, everyone.

好的。謝謝，Brian，大家好。

I'll begin with the details of our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results on Slides 3 and 4 of the earnings presentation, which is currently available on our IR website. Again, unless stated otherwise, all year-over-year revenue growth rates on today's call are provided on comparable currency basis.

我將從收益報告第 3 和第 4 張幻燈片中開始介紹我們第四季度和 2024 年全年的業績詳情，該投影片目前可在我們的 IR 網站上找到。再次強調，除非另有說明，今天電話會議上的所有同比收入增長率均以可比貨幣提供。

During the fourth quarter and full year 2024, our business performed in line with our expectations, and we expect continued momentum going into 2025. I'll start with some high level commentary on our full year 2024 performance and then drill down into fourth quarter results. We'll also provide our estimated full year 2025 financial guidance, and then of course we'll open up the call for some questions.

在 2024 年第四季和全年，我們的業務表現符合我們的預期，我們預計這種勢頭將持續到 2025 年。我將首先對我們 2024 年全年業績做一些高層評論，然後深入探討第四季度的業績。我們還將提供預計的 2025 年全年財務指導，然後當然我們會開放電話會議來回答一些問題。

Total reported revenue for the full year 2024 was $2.8 billion, including $2.3 billion in non-respiratory revenue. Labs growth was 4% excluding COVID and non-core revenue, which includes contract manufacturing. And our respiratory revenue was $504 million which grew 4% excluding COVID compared to the prior year.

2024 年全年總報告收入為 28 億美元，其中非呼吸系統收入 23 億美元。不包括 COVID 和包括合約製造在內的非核心收入，實驗室成長率為 4%。我們的呼吸系統收入為 5.04 億美元，與去年相比成長了 4%，不包括 COVID。

Full year 2024 COVID revenue was $185 million, including $17 million in government contracts. Foreign currency exchange negatively impacted full year 2024 results by 60 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA was $543 million and 19.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, and adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.85.

2024 年全年 COVID 收入為 1.85 億美元，其中包括 1,700 萬美元的政府合約。外匯對 2024 年全年業績產生了 60 個基點的負面影響。調整後 EBITDA 為 5.43 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 19.5%，調整後每股稀釋收益為 1.85 美元。

Moving now to fourth quarter 2024 results. Total reported revenue was $708 million, which decreased by 4% compared to the prior year period due to lower year-over-year COVID and flu revenues as discussed in our third quarter earnings call. Foreign currency exchange negatively impacted fourth quarter results by 30 basis points.

現在轉到 2024 年第四季的業績。報告的總收入為 7.08 億美元，與去年同期相比下降了 4%，原因是正如我們在第三季財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，新冠疫情和流感收入同比下降。外匯匯率對第四季業績產生了30個基點的負面影響。

From a regional perspective, our fourth quarter 2024 constant currency revenue performance was led by our other region, which again is comprised of Japan, Asia Pacific and Latin America and grew 13%. China grew 11%, driven by strong labs performance in China was partially offset by softness in cardiac point of care products, resulting from timing of certain orders and reimbursement changes in some Chinese provinces there that we discussed on our third quarter earnings call.

從區域角度來看，我們 2024 年第四季的固定匯率營收表現由其他地區領先，該地區同樣包括日本、亞太地區和拉丁美洲，成長了 13%。中國市場成長了 11%，這得益於中國實驗室的強勁表現，但被心臟護理產品的疲軟所部分抵消，後者是由於我們在第三季度財報電話會議上討論的某些訂單的時間安排和中國部分省份的報銷變化造成的。

I note that for the full year, China excluding respiratory grew in the high single-digits as expected. Our Europe, Middle East, Africa region declined by 6% due to a one-time item and timing of revenue in the prior year period. For the full year 2024, Europe, Middle East, Africa region revenue grew by 2%.

我注意到，中國全年（不包括呼吸系統疾病）的支出如預期般實現了高個位數成長。由於一次性專案和去年同期的收入時間，我們的歐洲、中東和非洲地區的收入下降了 6%。2024年全年，歐洲、中東、非洲地區營收成長2%。

And then finally, North America declined by 11%, compared to the prior year period due to the anticipated year-over-year decline in respiratory revenue, the decline of U.S. donor screening revenue as we continue to wind down that business this year and timing of cardiac sales. For the full year 2024, North America was down 3% excluding COVID.

最後，由於呼吸系統收入預計年減、美國捐贈者篩檢收入下降（因為我們今年將繼續逐步減少該業務）以及心臟銷售時機的因素，北美地區的收入與去年同期相比下降了 11%。2024 年全年，北美（不包括 COVID）經濟下降了 3%。

Now looking at our non-respiratory business, which includes labs, transfusion medicine and cardiac Point of Care products, fourth quarter 2024 revenue was relatively flat year-over-year. However, underlying labs revenue growth was 4%, excluding COVID and non-core revenue. In transfusion medicine, Immunohematology revenue grew 4% and Donor Screening declined by 40%.

現在看看我們的非呼吸業務，其中包括實驗室、輸血醫學和心臟護理點產品，2024 年第四季的收入比去年同期相對相當。不過，不包括 COVID 和非核心收入，基礎實驗室收入增加了 4%。在輸血醫學領域，免疫血液學收入增加了 4%，而捐贈者篩檢收入下降了 40%。

Cardiac revenue declined by 9% in Q4, primarily related to order timing in North America. For the full year, cardiac revenue was down approximately 2% or only $3 million, compared to the prior year. Our Q4 respiratory revenue declined 18% year-over-year.

第四季心臟科收入下降了 9%，主要與北美的訂單時間有關。全年心臟治療收入與前一年相比下降約 2%，僅 300 萬美元。我們第四季的呼吸系統收入較去年同期下降了 18%。

During Q4, we saw continued favorable product mix from our Sofia flu COVID combo test, and we had $44 million in COVID revenue. We saw a late start to this respiratory season, which is more in line with pre-pandemic trends, and we have seen the season become strong in February thus far. More on our thoughts on the Q1 flu season in a bit.

在第四季度，我們的索非亞流感 COVID 組合測試的產品組合繼續保持良好，我們的 COVID 收入達到 4,400 萬美元。我們發現本輪呼吸道疾病季節開始得較晚，這更符合大流行前的趨勢，而且到目前為止，我們已經看到該季節在二月份變得強勁。稍後我們會進一步闡述我們對第一季流感季節的看法。

Moving down the P&L, Slide 5 shows fourth quarter 2024 adjusted gross profit margin of 47% versus 52% in the prior year period. The year-over-year decrease was primarily driven by higher COVID and flu sales in the prior year period, as well as bonus accruals in Q4 of 2024 that did not occur in Q4 2023 as mentioned on our Q3 earnings call.

繼續看損益表，投影片 5 顯示 2024 年第四季調整後的毛利率為 47%，而去年同期為 52%。年比下降主要是由於去年同期 COVID 和流感銷售額增加，以及 2024 年第四季的獎金應計，而我們在第三季財報電話會議上提到，2023 年第四季並未出現這種獎金。

Non-GAAP operating expenses of $226 million including SG&A and R&D decreased by $16 million compared to the prior year period, which reflected cost savings initiatives partially offset by the previously mentioned Q4 '24 bond cycles. Adjusted EBITDA was $150 million compared to $195 million in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 21%, which reflects the cost savings actions we have taken, partially offset by lower revenue from respiratory tests, which are high margin contributors.

非公認會計準則下的營業費用為 2.26 億美元，包括銷售、一般及行政費用和研發費用，較去年同期減少 1,600 萬美元，這反映了成本節約舉措，但被前面提到的 24 年第四季度的債券週期部分抵消。調整後 EBITDA 為 1.5 億美元，去年同期為 1.95 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 21%，反映了我們採取的成本節約措施，但呼吸道測試（高利潤貢獻者）的收入下降部分抵消了這一影響。

Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.63, compared to adjusted diluted EPS of $1.17 in the prior year period. This year-over-year change was primarily due to higher respiratory revenue in the prior year period and higher interest expense in the current period, partially offset by our cost savings actions. The full year effective adjusted income tax rate for 2024 was 24%.

調整後每股攤薄收益為 0.63 美元，去年同期調整後每股稀釋收益為 1.17 美元。這一同比變化主要由於去年同期呼吸系統收入增加以及本期利息支出增加，但被我們的成本節約行動部分抵消。2024 年全年有效調整後所得稅率為 24%。

Now turning to the balance sheet on Slide 6. We finished the quarter with $98 million of cash. And as of the end of Q4, we had $198 million of borrowings on our $800 million revolver, which is a decrease of $32 million compared to Q3. Our capital allocation priority continues to be debt pay down. Fourth quarter 2024 adjusted free cash flow was $68 million which represents 45% of our adjusted EBITDA in Q4. And our second half 2024 adjusted free cash flow was 59% of our second half adjusted EBITDA.

現在轉到投影片 6 上的資產負債表。本季結束時，我們的現金餘額為 9,800 萬美元。截至第四季末，我們的 8 億美元循環信貸中有 1.98 億美元的借款，與第三季相比減少了 3,200 萬美元。我們的資本配置重點仍然是償還債務。2024 年第四季調整後自由現金流為 6,800 萬美元，佔第四季調整後 EBITDA 的 45%。我們 2024 年下半年調整後的自由現金流佔下半年調整後 EBITDA 的 59%。

During the fourth quarter of 2024, our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 4.4x and our consolidated leverage ratio including pro form a EBITDA adjustments was 3.5x as permitted and defined under our credit agreement.

在 2024 年第四季度，我們的淨負債與調整後的 EBITDA 比率為 4.4 倍，包括預測 EBITDA 調整在內的綜合槓桿率為 3.5 倍，如我們的信用協議所允許和定義的。

Now I will provide our full year 2025 guidance, which is on Slide 7 of the earnings presentation. We expect full year 2025 total reported revenue of between $2.6 billion and $2.81 billion. Note that we expect a negative impact of $55 million related to foreign currency exchange, which was estimated using currency rates as of January 1, 2025 and is subject to change as the year progresses.

現在我將提供我們的 2025 年全年指引，該指引位於收益報告的第 7 頁。我們預計 2025 年全年總報告收入在 26 億美元至 28.1 億美元之間。請注意，我們預計與外匯相關的負面影響為 5500 萬美元，該影響是使用 2025 年 1 月 1 日的匯率估算的，並且可能會隨著時間的推移而發生變化。

We expect adjusted EBITDA between $575 million and $615 million which equates to 22% adjusted EBITDA margin. This is an expected 250 basis point improvement off of full year 2024. We expect adjusted diluted EPS of between $2.07 to $2.57. Additionally, we do not see significant currency impact to either adjusted EBITDA or adjusted EPS.

我們預期調整後的 EBITDA 在 5.75 億美元至 6.15 億美元之間，相當於調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 22%。預計這將比 2024 年全年增長 250 個基點。我們預計調整後的稀釋每股收益在 2.07 美元至 2.57 美元之間。此外，我們沒有看到貨幣對調整後的 EBITDA 或調整後的 EPS 產生重大影響。

Now these expectations are based on a set of assumptions as follows. We assume that the full year 2025 business unit growth profiles will be in line with the commentary we shared most recently in January at the JPMorgan conference, including the labs business expected to grow in the mid-single-digits, Transfusion medicine, excluding U.S. Donor Screening, expected to grow in the low single digits.

現在這些期望是基於以下一組假設。我們假設 2025 年全年業務部門的成長將與我們在 1 月摩根大通會議上分享的評論一致，其中實驗室業務預計以中等個位數增長，輸血醫學（不包括美國捐贈者篩檢）預計以低個位數增長。

Chronic hair growth, excluding COVID, is assumed to grow in the mid-single-digits. And molecular diagnostics is expected to continue to develop during 2025 with limited sales. As a reminder, we are not assuming any sales from U.S., Savanna, or respiratory products in 2025.

不包括 COVID 在內的慢性毛髮生長預計將以中等個位數成長。預計分子診斷將在 2025 年繼續發展，但銷售額有限。提醒一下，我們不假設 2025 年美國、Savanna 或呼吸產品有任何銷售。

And lastly, we assume mid to high single digit growth in China. Now for the respiratory revenue in 2025, we assume a $50 million to $55 million overall test market with greater than 50% of flu product revenue coming from our flu COVID combo test. We are seeing strong recent flu trends in Q1, which are factored into our full year guidance presented today.

最後，我們假設中國將實現中高個位數成長。現在，對於 2025 年的呼吸系統收入，我們假設整體測試市場規模為 5,000 萬至 5,500 萬美元，其中超過 50% 的流感產品收入來自我們的流感 COVID 組合測試。我們發現第一季流感趨勢強勁，已計入我們今天提出的全年預期。

In addition, we assume full year 2025 COVID revenue will be in the range of $110 million to $140 million, which excludes approximately $17 million in government contracts that we had in 2024 and do not expect to repeat as well as lower retail sales, which accounts for less than 0.5% of our total company revenue.

此外，我們預計 2025 年全年 COVID 收入將在 1.1 億美元至 1.4 億美元之間，其中不包括我們在 2024 年簽訂的約 1700 萬美元的政府合同，並且預計不會重複，以及較低的零售額，這占我們公司總收入的不到 0.5%。

In addition, we assume typical quarterly seasonality with Q2 revenue being our lowest quarter and Q4 being our highest quarter for revenue and margins. We assume cost savings of approximately $50 million in the first half of 2025 as part of our previously implemented $100 million in annualized cost savings actions.

此外，我們假設典型的季度季節性，其中第二季度是我們的營收和利潤最低的季度，而第四季度是我們的營收和利潤最高的季度。我們預計 2025 年上半年將節省約 5,000 萬美元的成本，這是我們先前實施的 1 億美元年度成本節約行動的一部分。

We expect incremental cost savings in 2025 between $30 million to $50 million primarily related to procurement. The majority of the $100 million in annualized savings that we implemented in 2024 was related to staffing reductions of 9% of the total workforce.

我們預計 2025 年增量成本節省在 3,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元之間，主要與採購有關。我們在 2024 年實施的 1 億美元年度化節省大部分與裁減 9% 的總勞動力有關。

Future staffing reductions are expected to be a part of our ongoing efforts to appropriately size our teams, and we will continue to evaluate staffing reductions as part of our ongoing margin improvement efforts. However, we are now turning our attention to procurement and other categories of cost to improve margins.

預計未來的裁員將成為我們持續努力適當擴大團隊規模的一部分，我們將繼續評估裁員作為我們持續提高利潤率努力的一部分。然而，我們現在將注意力轉向採購和其他成本類別，以提高利潤率。

We assume positive adjusted free cash flow for the full year 2025 to be approximately 25% to 30% of adjusted EBITDA. We expect higher cash flow in second half of '25, which is in line with seasonally higher revenue and our cost savings initiatives. And we continue to target free cash flow conversion of 50% of adjusted EBITDA on the same timeline as our market improvement.

我們假設 2025 年全年調整後自由現金流為正，約佔調整後 EBITDA 的 25% 至 30%。我們預計 25 年下半年的現金流會更高，這與季節性收入成長和我們的成本節約措施一致。我們將繼續以市場改善為目標，將自由現金流轉換為調整後 EBITDA 的 50%。

We expect our net debt leverage ratio to be down close to a half a turn in the first half of '25 versus year end '24, and we expect it to land between 3.5x to 4x by the end of 2025. We assume full year interest expense to be down slightly from 2024 in the range of $158 million to $162 million. We had expected interest expense to be approximately $5 million to $7 million lower than this range, but higher than expected revolver borrowings at the end of '24 will carry over in '25.

我們預計，2025 年上半年我們的淨債務槓桿率將比 2024 年底下降近一半，並且預計到 2025 年底該比率將降至 3.5 倍至 4 倍之間。我們預計全年利息支出將較 2024 年略有下降，介於 1.58 億美元至 1.62 億美元之間。我們預計利息支出將比該範圍低約 500 萬至 700 萬美元，但 24 年底高於預期的循環借款將結轉到 25 年。

These higher borrowings are primarily related to one-time cash used for employee severance costs, our system conversions as well as the delay in proceeds related to the sale of a facility. Again, our capital allocation priority continues to be paying down debt. We assume CapEx of approximately $160 million to $170 million excluding instruments under reagent rental agreements and integration related expenses. And finally, we assume a full year effective tax rate of 24%.

這些較高的借款主要與用於員工遣散費、系統轉換的一次性現金以及設施出售相關的收益延遲有關。再次強調，我們的資本配置重點仍是償還債務。我們假設資本支出約為 1.6 億至 1.7 億美元，不包括試劑租賃協議下的儀器和整合相關費用。最後，我們假設全年有效稅率為 24%。

To summarize, we believe our second half 2024 performance demonstrates solid progress towards our adjusted EBITDA margin expansion goal of greater than 25% over the next couple of years. We remain focused on our execution and cost savings initiatives to achieve our margin expansion and profitable growth goals.

總而言之，我們相信 2024 年下半年的業績表明，我們將在未來幾年朝著調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 25% 以上的目標取得穩步進展。我們將繼續專注於執行和成本節約舉措，以實現利潤率擴大和獲利成長目標。

With that, I'll ask the operator to please open-up the line for questions.

現在，我請接線生開通熱線以便我們解答疑問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Jack Meehan with Nephron Research.

腎元研究機構的 Jack Meehan。

Thank you. Good afternoon. First question was on the guidance. The forecast for free cash flow conversion at 25% to 30% of adjusted EBITDA. It wasn't that long ago that, you were looking at something closer to 50% of adjusted EBITDA conversion. I know that was a different time, different revenue base. But I was wondering, if you could just talk about, where you think that can go over time and what a more normalized level might look like?

謝謝。午安.第一個問題是關於指導的。預計自由現金流轉換率為調整後 EBITDA 的 25% 至 30%。不久前，您也看到調整後 EBITDA 轉換率接近 50%。我知道那是一個不同的時代，不同的收入基礎。但我想知道，您是否可以談談，您認為隨著時間的推移，這種情況會發展到什麼程度，以及更正常化的水平會是什麼樣的？

It's Joe. Thanks for the question. Yeah, the cash flow is certainly not where we wanted to be. We ended 2024 at 20% recurring free cash flow as a percentage of EBITDA. And again, as you just stated, for 2025 we expect it to be between 25% to 30%. So it's an improvement over 2024, but ultimately our goal is to be at least 50% conversion of adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow conversion. And I believe that getting to that target will be over the same timeline as our margin improvement goals, so I would say over the next couple of years.

是喬。謝謝你的提問。是的，現金流絕對不是我們想要的。截至 2024 年，我們的經常性自由現金流佔 EBITDA 的百分比為 20%。正如您剛才所說，我們預計 2025 年這一比例將在 25% 至 30% 之間。因此，這比 2024 年有所改善，但我們的最終目標是將調整後的 EBITDA 轉化為自由現金流轉換率至少達到 50%。我相信，實現這一目標的時間將與我們的利潤率提高目標相同，也就是在未來幾年內。

Okay. And then, I was hoping you could also just talk about the China region. So given some of the market uncertainty, the fourth quarter actually looks like it was pretty good for you guys in the region. This mid to high single-digit target you have for 2025, can you just give us an update on your view on pricing and exposure to any VBT programs that are taking place?

好的。然後，我希望您也可以談談中國地區。因此，考慮到一些市場不確定性，第四季度對於該地區的公司來說實際上看起來相當不錯。您為 2025 年設定的目標是中高個位數，您能否向我們介紹您對定價和正在進行的任何 VBT 計劃的看法？

Yes. Hi, Jack. This is Brian. China continues to be an attractive market for us, but it is a complex market as you know. In the near term, we think that the risk of additional VBP pressure has largely passed us by at least for 2025. But we have seen some smaller impacts to cardiac reimbursement there that are yes, mainly reimbursement versus broad VBP actions.

是的。你好，傑克。這是布萊恩。中國對我們來說仍然是一個有吸引力的市場，但正如你所知，它是一個複雜的市場。短期內，我們認為至少在 2025 年，額外的 VBP 壓力風險已基本消失。但我們看到對心臟病報銷有一些較小的影響，主要是報銷與廣泛的 VBP 行動。

I don't expect any more significant actions on either VBP or reimbursement, but I would say that the competitive intensity there just given what has happened has increased. And as a result of that, we're kind of tempering our view from kind of -single-digit to mid-single-digit moving forward given that the nature of the environmental dynamic there.

我並不期望在 VBP 或報銷方面採取任何更重大的行動，但我想說，鑑於已經發生的事情，那裡的競爭強度已經加劇。因此，考慮到當地環境動態的性質，我們正在將我們的觀點從個位數調整為中等個位數。

Okay. That makes sense. If I could squeeze in one more just a clarification. I think there was a new disclosure in the slides for the cardiac revenue. I just wanted to clarify, does that include both Triage and BNP and kind of the decline you had in the quarter was entirely on the Triage side, I assume?

好的。這很有道理。如果我可以再擠一點的話，只是為了澄清一下。我認為幻燈片中對心臟收入進行了新的披露。我只是想澄清一下，這是否包括 Triage 和 BNP，並且我猜本季的下滑完全是在 Triage 方面？

Yes, that's right. Yeah, we referenced that growth or decline in the prepared remarks, Jack, so we had to put a slide in the PowerPoint deck that goes with the earnings call. And yes, when we talk about the cardiac, it's the combined Triage revenue as well as the BNP revenue and really all of the full year variances is in the Triage business. That BNP business is flat, $75 billion every year.

是的，沒錯。是的，傑克，我們在準備好的演講中提到了增長或下降，所以我們必須在 PowerPoint 簡報中添加一張與收益電話會議相關的幻燈片。是的，當我們談論心臟病時，它是綜合的分診收入以及 BNP 收入，並且實際上所有全年差異都在分診業務中。法國巴黎銀行的業務保持平穩，每年 750 億美元。

Thank you guys.

謝謝你們。

Patrick Donnelly with Citi.

花旗銀行的 Patrick Donnelly。

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Joe, maybe one for you on the cost side. It sounds like maybe some of the cost savings are coming a little earlier than expected this year as well. Can you just talk about the levers you guys are pulling to preserve and drive EBITDA higher the key ones as we work our way through this year and then obviously the ones that remain out there to drive EBITDA back to where you guys want it on the margin side?

嘿，大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。喬，從成本方面來看，也許你可以選擇一個。這聽起來好像今年的部分成本節省可能也比預期來得更早。您能否談談你們為維持和提高 EBITDA 所採取的措施？

Yeah. So, hey, Patrick, so yeah, the overall EBITDA margins are going up 250 basis points from '24 to '25. And at a high level, I would say that the pieces are -- it's the roughly $50 million of the first $100 million that we actioned last year mid to 2024, which will benefit the first half of 2025. And I would say that, that $50 million is going to be split pretty evenly between, OpEx and GP.

是的。所以，嘿，派崔克，是的，從 24 年到 25 年，整體 EBITDA 利潤率上升了 250 個基點。從高層次來看，我想說的是——這是我們去年中期到 2024 年投入的第一筆 1 億美元中的約 5000 萬美元，這將使 2025 年上半年受益。我想說的是，這 5000 萬美元將在 OpEx 和 GP 之間平均分配。

And the second tranche that I would mention is the $30 million to $50 million of incremental savings for the '25 that we mentioned on this call today, which we've defined as mostly procurement related. And most of those savings will occur within the OpEx line, because a large majority of those savings as procurement savings are going to be indirect procurement savings. And the direct procurement savings that will benefit GP will take a little bit longer to realize and we'll probably start to see more of those move into 2026.

我要提到的第二部分是我們在今天的電話會議上提到的‘25年’的3000萬至5000萬美元的增量儲蓄，我們將其定義為主要與採購有關。而且大部分節省都將發生在營運支出 (OpEx) 線內，因為採購節省的大部分將是間接採購節省。而使 GP 受益的直接採購節省將需要更長的時間才能實現，我們可能會在 2026 年開始看到更多這樣的節省。

So those are the two main good guys benefiting margins. And then, of course, you have a headwind of normal merit increase for employees and 1% to 2% inflation on materials that are offset. And those are the really the big main pieces, as you think about how we go from '24 to '25 and then 250 basis point improvement on EBITDA margins.

因此，他們是兩個主要的受益於利潤的好人。當然，你還會面臨員工正常績效加薪和材料價格 1% 至 2% 的通貨膨脹的阻力。這些才是真正最重要的部分，想想我們如何從 24 年到 25 年，然後將 EBITDA 利潤率提高 250 個基點。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, maybe just the range on respiratory. Can you talk about, the different drivers there? Are we in the endemic? Is this the right number to think about going forward? And then, inside of that, just Savanna, it sounds like respiratory trials for now, not much this year, the contribution there as we work our way forward?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，也許只是呼吸的範圍。您能談談那裡的不同司機嗎？我們處在流行病之中嗎？這是未來值得思考的正確數字嗎？然後，在裡面，只是薩凡納，現在聽起來像是呼吸試驗，今年沒有太多，在我們前進的過程中，那裡的貢獻是什麼？

Thank you guys.

謝謝你們。

Yes. I can take that. Maybe I'd take the COVID revenue piece first. We do believe that when you look at the COVID revenue for us, it is going down in '24 '25. But the really all of that drop from '24 to '25 in the COVID revenue is the government contract that won't repeat that we saw in '24. And then the other piece is retail revenue, which is a really small piece of our business. It's less than 0.5% of our total company revenue.

是的。我可以接受。也許我會先考慮 COVID 收入部分。我們確實相信，當你查看我們的 COVID 收入時，它會在 24 年和 25 年下降。但從 2024 年到 2025 年，COVID 收入真正下降的全部原因是政府合約不會重複我們在 2024 年看到的情況。另一部分是零售收入，這只是我們業務的一小部分。這還不到我們公司總收入的0.5％。

And quite honestly, it's just not really a big focus of ours right now. The professional COVID revenue is relatively flat in our guidance, '24 '25, and we believe that's really at what I would describe as an endemic level. As far as the rest of the respiratory, revenue, it's growing in the guidance. It's growing roughly low single-digits for '24, '25, when you think about flu, RSV and strep.

老實說，這並不是我們目前的重點。在我們的預期中，24 至 25 年專業的 COVID 收入相對持平，我們認為這確實處於我所描述的地方性水平。就其餘的呼吸系統收入而言，它在指導範圍內正在增長。如果考慮到流感、呼吸道合胞病毒和鏈球菌，那麼 2024 年和 2025 年的發生率成長率大約是個位數。

Bill Bonello with Craig-Hallum.

Bill Bonello with Craig-Hallum.

Hi, thanks guys. I just want to follow-up a little bit on the first question that Patrick asked, maybe slightly differently. The margin expansion target is now a lot better than what you had said not long ago. And it would seem like you had anticipated additional cost savings, you've been talking about that and procurement, as an opportunity.

嗨，謝謝大家。我只是想稍微跟進一下帕特里克提出的第一個問題，可能略有不同。現在的利潤率擴張目標比你不久前所說的要好得多。而且看起來你已經預料到了額外的成本節約，你一直在談論這一點，並將採購視為一個機會。

So I'm just curious, two things, sort of what's going better, what has you more encouraged, than when you originally talked about maybe 150 to 200 basis points? And then secondly does it change your thinking about the total opportunity at all?

所以我很好奇，有兩件事，什麼情況進展得更好，什麼讓您更受鼓舞，與您最初談論的 150 到 200 個基點相比？其次，它是否會改變您對整個機會的看法？

Hey, Bill, this is Brian. I think in terms of what's gone better, we can point to a lot of the accomplishments the organization has made this last year. First and foremost, the staffing reductions that we made, which were substantially were 9% of our workforce and probably monetized out closer to 12% to 13% of cost reduction there. But we very quickly jumped on the procurement piece of that.

嘿，比爾，我是布萊恩。我認為就哪些方面取得了進步而言，我們可以指出該組織去年的許多成就。首先，我們裁掉了約 9% 的員工，這可能意味著成本降低了 12% 到 13%。但我們很快就開始著手採購這部分。

And I think as we have gotten significant traction there, that's enabling us to now talk about this additional $30 million to $50 million of incremental savings. So, I still see -- I wouldn't want to get too far out of our skis there. I still see our pathway here to the 25% EBITDA range and higher over the sort of 25% to 30% range over the next two to three years. So that's our target. We keep trying to push that as hard as we can.

我認為，由於我們在那裡取得了重大進展，這使我們能夠現在談論額外的 3000 萬至 5000 萬美元的增量節省。所以，我仍然明白——我不想讓我們的滑雪板離得太遠。我仍然認為我們的 EBITDA 成長率將達到 25% 左右，在未來兩到三年內將達到 25% 到 30% 左右。這就是我們的目標。我們會繼續盡最大努力推動這一點。

Okay. That's helpful. And you talked about the procurement being more on the indirect cost side this year. Is there any color you can give on that at all? Like what types of things are you able to achieve there?

好的。這很有幫助。您剛才談到今年的採購更著重於間接成本方面。您能對此做出任何解釋嗎？例如，您在那裡能實現什麼目標？

Yes. It's a lot of costs. It really cuts across the entire P&L. It's everything from supply chain and logistics costs, packaging to travel and entertainment costs. It really just cuts across the whole P&L. It's a lot of our service cost in IT and quality etcetera and even some R&D expenditures. So it really is a broad-based approach that we've taken to the indirect side.

是的。成本很高。它確實影響了整個損益表。它包括供應鏈和物流成本、包裝到旅行和娛樂成本等一切。它實際上只是影響了整個損益表。我們在IT和品質等方面的服務成本很大一部分甚至還有研發支出。因此，我們在間接方面確實採取了一種廣泛的方法。

And the reason we're those are just a little bit more actionable in the short term than the direct procurement, which are generally product related costs that require us to change in some cases the design or make regulatory submissions. And so they just take a little longer for us to implement.

我們這樣做的原因是，與直接採購相比，這些在短期內更具可操作性，直接採購通常是與產品相關的成本，在某些情況下需要我們改變設計或提交監管文件。因此我們只需要花更長的時間來實現它們。

Yes. Okay. That's helpful. And then if I can just one last one. On the -- thanks for the color on the year-over-year decline in the adjusted gross margin. Can you just remind us the reason for the sequential decline?

是的。好的。這很有幫助。如果可以的話我再說最後一個問題。感謝您對調整後毛利率年減的說明。您能否提醒我們一下連續下降的原因？

From Q3 to Q4 in 2024 you're talking about, Bill?

比爾，你談論的是從 2024 年第三季到第四季嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It's going to be mix. Yes, product mix. It's product mix.

這將是混合的。是的，產品組合。這是產品組合。

Okay. But don't you have more respiratory in Q4 and isn't that higher margin? What ---

好的。但是，第四季度您的呼吸量不是更大了嗎？什麼---

No, it's actually less, yeah, which is what we had talked about on the Q3 call.

不，實際上更少，是的，這正是我們在第三季電話會議上談論的。

Okay. Okay. Well, I'll ask on our follow-up call, so I don't look any more stupid. Thank you.

好的。好的。好吧，我會在後續電話中詢問，這樣我就不會顯得更愚蠢了。謝謝。

Lu Li with UBS.

瑞銀的 Lu Li。

Great. Thank you. So two questions. So first one on the margin. I just wanted to get your updated thoughts on the tariff. Is your assumption right now including like any negative impact from the tariff or and then maybe just like any mitigation that you can talk about?

偉大的。謝謝。所以有兩個問題。因此第一個在邊緣。我只是想了解您對關稅的最新看法。您現在的假設是否包括關稅帶來的任何負面影響，或者也許只是您可以談論的任何緩解措施？

Yes. The tariff subject seems to be ever changing here, over the last couple of weeks and we're monitoring it very carefully. We were happy to see that Mexico and Canada are moving, I think, toward a resolution to what was proposed by the administration. And as you probably know, our industry continues to lobby for an exemption there, because the bulk of medical devices and diagnostic products are manufactured in the United States.

是的。在過去幾周里，關稅主題似乎一直在變化，我們正在密切關注。我認為，我們很高興看到墨西哥和加拿大正在努力解決政府提出的建議。您可能知道，我們的行業一直在遊說尋求豁免，因為大部分醫療設備和診斷產品都是在美國製造的。

We do have some exposure there, as we've got some instruments that are sourced from Mexico. But given the changing nature and morphing of the subject right now, it's really just too early for us to provide any real view of potential impact at this point. So we're just going to monitor it very closely and once we understand what the real impact is, we'll be able to provide additional guidance on that.

我們確實在那裡有一些曝光，因為我們有一些來自墨西哥的樂器。但考慮到目前主題的變化性質和形態，現在我們就提供任何關於潛在影響的真實看法還為時過早。因此，我們將密切監視它，一旦我們了解其真正的影響，我們將能夠提供額外的指導。

Got it. So I wanted to circle back on one of your comments on the China part. So you said the risk of, additional VPP pressure largely passed for 2025. And you don't really expect any like significant action. I just, can you just provide a little bit more detail in terms of like what have you seen on the ground and why you believe that most of the impact should be gone in 2025.

知道了。所以我想回顧一下你關於中國部分的評論之一。所以您說，額外的 VPP 壓力的風險在 2025 年基本上已經過去了。但你確實不期望有任何重大行動。我只是，你能否提供更詳細一點的細節，例如你在實地看到了什麼，以及為什麼你認為大部分影響應該在 2025 年消失。

Yeah, most of the VBP actions up to this point have been focused on liquid, clinical chemistry products, and immunoassa products.

是的，到目前為止，大多數 VBP 行動都集中在液體、臨床化學產品和免疫產品上。

Our dry slide technology has been exempt from those actions up to this point. And unlike most of our other competitors there, our mix of clinical chemistry versus immunoassay is kind of reverse. We have less immunoassay exposure in the China market. We have very little immunoassay placement in the China market, and most of our volume there is clinical chemistry. So, based on the timing of how these actions roll out, we believe at this point they're really, we don't expect any sort of meaningful BBP impact, for that would affect our products in 2025.

到目前為止，我們的乾式載玻片技術已免於採取這些措施。與我們的大多數其他競爭對手不同，我們的臨床化學與免疫測定的組合是相反的。我們在中國市場的免疫測定業務較少。我們在中國市場的免疫測定業務很少，大部分業務都是臨床化學業務。因此，根據這些行動推出的時間，我們認為，目前它們實際上不會產生任何有意義的 BBP 影響，因為這會在 2025 年影響我們產品。

Okay, got it. If I can squeeze one more, I just wanted to think about more the long-term margin expansion opportunity. So we're talking about like 250 basis points in 2025. Is that the right way to think about in terms of like 2026 as well, given that, you do have more procurement opportunities that you just mentioned and then you also have the divestiture of the donor business? Just wanted to think about how you it sounds like a little bit longer-term 2026?

好的，明白了。如果我可以再擠一個，我只是想多考慮長期利潤擴大機會。所以我們談的是 2025 年的 250 個基點。考慮到您確實有更多您剛才提到的採購機會，而且您還剝離了捐贈業務，這也是考慮 2026 年的正確方式嗎？只是想想，這聽起來像是更長遠的 2026 年嗎？

Yes. Hi, Lu. It's Joe. We've been, I think, pretty consistent here since Brian joined the company back last May in that we are targeting adjusted EBITDA margins greater than 25% and that it would be a two to three year journey from when he started with the company. And the reason that it takes that long, because it may be surprising to some of us, like, why would it take so long is, because we can do the headcount actions fairly quickly, which we did.

是的。你好，盧。是喬。我認為，自從 Brian 去年 5 月加入公司以來，我們一直堅持不懈地將調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率定為 25% 以上，並且從他加入公司開始，這將是一段兩到三年的旅程。之所以需要這麼長時間，可能會讓一些人感到驚訝，例如，為什麼要花這麼長時間，是因為我們可以相當快地完成人員盤點行動，而我們確實這樣做了。

We can get to indirect procurement savings, which we will get to this year. It's the direct procurement savings that take a little bit longer because sometimes you're looking at bringing in recertifying new suppliers or actually swapping in and out new materials on existing products and trying to avoid new 510(k) filings with the FDA. So it does take a little time. So I think we're making good progress from '24 to '25. We will make even more progress as we move into 2026 as we continue with the indirect procurement savings as well as start to see more of the direct procurement savings come through on the gross margin line.

我們可以獲得間接採購節省，今年我們將實現這一目標。直接採購節省所需的時間會更長一些，因為有時您需要考慮引入重新認證的新供應商或在現有產品上更換新材料，並試圖避免向 FDA 提交新的 510(k) 文件。所以這確實需要一點時間。所以我認為我們從24年到25年取得了良好的進展。進入 2026 年，我們將取得更大進步，繼續實現間接採購節省，並開始看到更多的直接採購節省體現在毛利率上。

And then the final thing I would say is that we are going to get a bit of a tailwind as we fully exit from the donor screening business, the U.S. Donor screening business in 2026. We've sized that at roughly 50 to 100 basis points. And then the final thing I mentioned is, the Savanna launch. That will provide some tailwinds to margins as well as we start to move from dilutive impacts of the project to more accretive impacts of a molecular product margin.

我最後要說的是，隨著我們在 2026 年完全退出捐贈者篩選業務（美國捐贈者篩選業務），我們將會獲得一些順風。我們將其規模定為大約 50 到 100 個基點。我最後要提到的是 Savanna 的發表會。這將為利潤率提供一些推動力，同時我們開始從專案的稀釋性影響轉向分子產品利潤率的增值性影響。

So all those things combined will get you to, again, that greater than 25% adjusted EBITDA margin. So we'll make progress this year. We'll make more progress next year. And I would think by the time we get to the end of '26, first half of '27, we should be where we need to be with margins.

因此，所有這些因素結合起來將使您的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率再次超過 25%。因此我們今年會取得進步。明年我們會取得更多進步。我認為，到 26 年底或 27 年上半年，我們的利潤率應該能夠達到我們需要的水平。

Andrew Cooper with Raymond James.

安德魯庫柏和雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Everybody, thanks for the question. A lot already asked, but maybe just one, just to make sure on the $30 million to $50 million of savings this year, that's an in year number and I think you said second half weighted. So is it right to think about as we move into 2026, there is some flow through there on top of like you called out the incremental direct procurement work and so forth. So we should have again kind of another above fully normalized margin expansion year in '26. Is that the right way to think about it?

大家好，謝謝您的提問。已經問了很多，但可能只問一個，只是為了確保今年 3000 萬到 5000 萬美元的節省，這是一個年度數字，我認為你說的是下半年加權的。那麼，當我們進入 2026 年時，除了您所說的增量直接採購工作等之外，是否應該考慮一些其他的流程。因此，在 26 年，我們應該再次迎來另一個完全正常化的利潤率擴張年。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Yeah. Hi, Andrew. Yes, the $30 million to $50 million that we talked about is incremental. We'll be in year. That's the -- this year impact. And you're right, it'll be mostly second half impact. And it'll be mostly, as I said earlier, it'll be mostly in the OpEx area as a lot of that is focused on indirect insurance. And then for sure, we have many direct procurement projects and initiatives in flight, which will start to benefit more in 2026. And obviously, if we move through 2025, we'll talk a little more about what those impacts might look like in 2026.

是的。你好，安德魯。是的，我們談論的 3000 萬到 5000 萬美元是增量。我們將在年內。這就是今年的影響。你說得對，這主要會對下半場產生影響。正如我之前所說，它主要會集中在 OpEx 領域，因為其中許多都集中在間接保險上。可以肯定的是，我們正在進行許多直接採購項目和計劃，這些項目和計劃將在 2026 年開始受益更多。顯然，如果我們到了 2025 年，我們將會更多地討論這些影響在 2026 年會是什麼樣子。

Okay, helpful. And then I'm going to sneak two together here. But maybe just on Savanna and the timing, I think you said you started the trial last month. That puts you a full kind of 10 months from when you first withdrew the submission last year. It's a little bit later than we would have thought given the typical respiratory season of what we've seen of late would have kicked off a little earlier. Luckily, there is kind of a big February surge, it appears.

好的，很有幫助。然後我要偷偷地把兩個放在一起。但也許只是關於薩凡納和時間安排，我想你說過你上個月開始了試驗。從你去年第一次撤回提交開始，已經過了整整 10 個月。這比我們想像的要晚一點，因為我們最近看到的典型呼吸道疾病季節應該會提早一點開始。幸運的是，二月似乎出現了大幅成長。

But just how do we think about the timing there and potentially being ready for this next flu season if all goes right? I know you don't have anything baked in, but just kind of would love the thoughts there on what that could look like if it does. And then secondly, just very quickly, can you give us a little bit of color for the donor screening revenues assumed in the guide?

但是，如果一切順利的話，我們該如何考慮時機並為下一個流感季節做好準備呢？我知道您還沒有想好任何東西，但我只是想知道如果想好了它會是什麼樣子。其次，您能否快速地向我們介紹指南中假設的捐贈者篩選收入？

Yeah, sure. So on Savanna and the start of the trial, we did start it in January. As you recall, the flu season was ramping up a little later in December this year than we had expected. We tried to time the start of the trial with the increase toward the peak so that we would get the kinds of samples that we need to have a successful trial. The season will go on here for another couple of months.

是的，當然。因此，我們確實在一月開始了對 Savanna 的試驗。大家還記得，今年 12 月的流感季節來得比我們預期的要晚一些。我們嘗試將試驗的開始時間安排在增幅達到高峰的時候，這樣我們就能獲得成功試驗所需的樣本。這裡的賽季還要持續幾個月。

We'll be collecting our samples, running our data, and then we would expect we'd go into a period where we analyze the data and make a submission with the idea of moving through a process for an approval that would put us into the market later this year. So we're really -- there's really no change in the timing of our expectation for Savanna, and there's not much more that we can really say about it until we're well through our trial and into the regulatory process.

我們將收集樣本，運行數據，然後預計進入數據分析和提交階段，並希望透過流程獲得批准，在今年稍後將產品推向市場。因此，我們對 Savanna 的預期時間實際上沒有變化，而且在我們完成試驗並進入監管流程之前，我們真的沒有太多可以說的。

And then into the Donor Screening question you had, really no change from what we said on the Q3 earnings call that we expect that the Donor Screening business this year will be $40 million to $50 million in the U.S. Donor Screening will be $40 million to $50 million and that's down quite a bit from 2024 where we finished at roughly $115 million. So it's quite a drag, but we'll get through most of the wind down this year. I think there'll be very little residual revenue that will fall into 2026. We should get through most of it this year.

然後關於您提出的捐贈者篩選問題，與我們在第三季財報電話會議上所說的相比，實際上沒有什麼變化，我們預計今年美國的捐贈者篩檢業務規模將達到 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元。所以這是一個相當大的阻力，但今年我們會克服大部分阻力。我認為到 2026 年剩下的收入將非常少。我們今年應該能解決大部分問題。

Tycho Peterson with Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Tycho Peterson。

Yes. Hi. This is Jack on for Tycho. Thanks for taking our question. I guess first thinking about the longer-term margin target, how should we think about the tradeoff between building your longer-term growth engine, funding innovation beyond Savanna and sort of rightsizing the cost structure? What gives you confidence in the ability to get back to consistent mid-single-digits growth, while also driving this new operating model?

是的。你好。這是 Jack 為 Tycho 表演的。感謝您回答我們的問題。我想先考慮長期利潤目標，我們應該如何在打造長期成長引擎、資助 Savanna 以外的創新以及調整成本結構之間進行權衡？是什麼讓您有信心恢復穩定的中位數成長，同時推動這項新的營運模式？

Yes. Thank you for the question. What I would say is, there's a direct correlation between the work that we're doing in margin expansion and our ability to invest in the future of the business, with new product development, both in terms of assays content on our platforms and new systems. So we view them -- I view them as connected.

是的。感謝您的提問。我想說的是，我們在擴大利潤方面所做的工作與我們投資未來業務的能力之間存在直接的關聯，包括新產品開發，無論是在我們平台上的檢測內容還是新系統方面。所以我們認為它們——我認為它們是相互關聯的。

And my initial focus was really around getting the organization focused on the things we had to do from a cost improvement standpoint, getting Savanna on the tracks, and then we had a number of other important menu expansion and lifecycle management projects. We're very quickly here, I think, with the traction that we're getting in our procurement initiatives, turning the corner there to looking at what we can do now to further drive the robustness of our product portfolio.

我最初的重點實際上是讓組織專注於我們必須從成本改進的角度做的事情，讓 Savanna 走上正軌，然後我們還有許多其他重要的菜單擴展和生命週期管理專案。我認為，隨著我們的採購計畫取得進展，我們很快就能開始考慮我們現在可以做些什麼來進一步推動我們產品組合的穩健性。

We're still in the early stages there, but we're in the process of defining innovation roadmaps for each of our businesses, that involve assays and new systems. And so, we'll share more about that in future calls as we develop our plans. I'd also -- in terms of the underlying business model here, I would just point to the fact that, this is a very solid, stable, mid-single-digits growth business that's really supported by the underlying business dynamics of long customer relationships, a positive win loss ratio, high renewal rates.

我們仍處於早期階段，但我們正在為每個業務定義創新路線圖，其中涉及分析和新系統。因此，我們將在製定計劃時在未來的電話會議中分享更多有關這方面的資訊。就這裡的底層商業模式而言，我只想指出這樣一個事實：這是一項非常穩固、穩定、中等個位數成長的業務，它真正受到長期客戶關係、積極的贏利損失比、高續約率等底層業務動態的支持。

And those dynamics really support kind of this underlying growth and really anything we do with systems and new assays are things that we can layer on top of that.

這些動力確實支持了這種潛在的成長，我們利用系統和新分析所做的任何事情都是我們可以在其基礎上進行的事情。

Got into mid-single digits and labs for the year, are there any swing factors in play that could drive that to either lower or mid-single digit or higher end for instance China?

今年已進入中等個位數和實驗室，是否存在任何影響因素，可能導致其進入較低或中等個位數或較高端，例如中國？

Yeah. Well, China is a dynamic market. Things change there quickly. I would say right now, I don't see anything again on the VBP front or the reimbursement front that would have a major impact there. And again, I kind of point to the stable recurring revenue dynamic of our business model that wouldn't point to any major swings in our labs business.

是的。嗯，中國是一個充滿活力的市場。那裡的情況變化很快。我想說現在，我沒有看到任何對 VBP 方面或報銷方面產生重大影響的事情。我再次強調，我們的商業模式具有穩定的經常性收入動態，不會導致實驗室業務出現任何重大波動。

Yeah, I think I would only add that, as a tailwind, menu is always going to drive incremental growth. So as we continue to reprioritize the R&D group on menu expansion, I'd like to think that there would be potential upside going forward. I wouldn't say this year, because what we put out as a guide we're comfortable with. But moving forward, as you expand the menu, especially on the IA side that would drive additional growth.

是的，我想我只想補充一點，作為順風，菜單總是會推動增量成長。因此，隨著我們繼續重新調整研發團隊在菜單擴展的優先順序，我認為未來可能會有上升潛力。我不會說今年，因為我們發布的指南讓我們感到滿意。但展望未來，隨著菜單的擴大，尤其是在 IA 方面，這將推動額外的成長。

Casey Woodring with JPMorgan

摩根大通的 Casey Woodring

Great. Thank you for taking my questions. I guess my first one, can you give us a sense on what to expect for 1Q across your different business lines and specifically on respiratory and flu in 1Q? What do you have baked in here there? ILI has been picking up as you noted. So curious if respiratory in 1Q could come in above where it was in 3Q, since inventories are lower or if some of that was just pull forward in the fall?

偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。我想我的第一個問題，您能否向我們介紹一下第一季您不同業務線的預期，特別是第一季呼吸道和流感方面的預期？你這邊烤了什麼？正如您提到的那樣，ILI 一直在回升。所以很好奇，由於庫存較低，第一季的呼吸系統疾病數量是否會高於第三季度，或者其中一些只是在秋季提前了？

And then, I guess, if respiratory is expected to come in stronger here in 1Q, how are you thinking about the rest of the year, just given the unknowns around the ‘25, ’26 respiratory season? Yeah, just maybe walk us through 1Q versus the rest of the year in respiratory?

然後，我想，如果預計呼吸系統疾病在第一季會變得更加嚴重，那麼考慮到 25、26 年呼吸系統疾病旺季的未知因素，您對今年剩餘時間的情況有何看法？是的，您能不能向我們介紹一下第一季與今年剩餘時間相比呼吸系統的狀況？

Yeah. Hi, Casey. This is Brian. We're seeing the same thing that you're seeing, which is the ILI really spiking up here and also the positivity rate is also almost double what it was last year. And I think it's higher or as high as the ‘17,’18 flu season, which was a pretty robust season for us. We got off to a late start, but now we've seen this peak and the question is how quickly the peak will come down. I think just given how high it is, there's a good likelihood that the tail from the coming down from the peak will stretch out a little bit further.

是的。你好，凱西。這是布萊恩。我們看到的情況和您一樣，那就是流感樣疾病 (ILI) 在這裡大幅上升，而且陽性率也幾乎是去年的兩倍。我認為這個數字會比 2017、2018 年流感季節更高，或者說和 2018 年一樣高，對我們來說是一個相當嚴重的季節。我們起步較晚，但現在我們已經看到了這個高峰，問題是這個高峰將以多快的速度下降。我認為，考慮到它的高度，從山頂下來的尾巴很可能會延伸得更遠。

And I think that's supported to a certain extent by what we saw in the Southern Hemisphere this last summer. So we're watching it. And you just don't know what the duration of this season is going to be. So we assumed for our full year guidance an average flu season with a test size of 50 million to 55 million tests in 2025, which is kind of the average for us for the last three years. And that's what we've got baked into our full year guide.

我認為去年夏天我們在南半球看到的情況在一定程度上證實了這一點。所以我們正在觀察它。而且你只是不知道這個賽季會持續多久。因此，我們假設 2025 年全年流感季節的平均檢測規模為 5,000 萬至 5,500 萬次，這差不多是過去三年的平均值。這就是我們在全年指南中體現的內容。

Andrew Brackmann with William Blair

安德魯·布拉克曼與威廉·布萊爾

Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. A lot has been asked of Brian, maybe one for you, big picture. I think you've been in the seat now months or so. So I think you've had some time to do sort of a full review of the business. Any sort of change in how you're sort of thinking about this collection of assets on the whole, this being the right mix or any sort of changes in how you might be thinking about acquisitions, divestitures, cuts, things like that? Thanks.

嘿，大家好。午安.感謝您回答這些問題。人們對 Brian 提出了很多問題，也許有一個是針對您的，關於大局。我想你已經在這個職位上待了幾個月了。所以我認為你已經有時間對業務進行全面審查了。您對這些資產整體的看法有什麼改變嗎？謝謝。

Thanks, Andrew. Our focus really is on improving the operational performance of the business. I like every one of these businesses. I think they fit together well, again, giving us the capability to work across the entire patient care value stream and be in both centralized and decentralized testing. I think each of the businesses plays a different role in our portfolio.

謝謝，安德魯。我們的重點確實是提高業務的營運績效。我喜歡其中每一家企業。我認為它們再次很好地結合在一起，使我們能夠涵蓋整個患者護理價值流，並進行集中和分散測試。我認為每個業務在我們的投資組合中都扮演著不同的角色。

But largely speaking, our focus is on making each of them more profitable and each of them grow more. So in the short-term, I don't have anything really to say on business development opportunities. We're really just focused on improving the operation of the business at this point.

但整體來說，我們的重點是讓每家公司都更有獲利、每家公司都更大成長。因此，短期內，我對業務發展機會真的沒什麼好說的。我們現在實際上只是專注於改善業務運營。

Great, I'll just stick to that one. Thanks guys.

太好了，我會堅持這一點。謝謝大家。

Conor McNamara with RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的康納麥克納馬拉 (Conor McNamara)。

Hello. This is Jose Ricardo for Conor. I just wanted to go back to the tariff conversation. Thank you for asking one of the next question. I know things have changed quickly since you spoke and the administration has different approaches to tariffs, depending upon the country. And you talked about some of the instruments that are sourced with parts from Mexico. Have you also looked into the exposure on the secondary level suppliers that provide you with procurement of process materials that you also incorporate into your manufactured instruments?

你好。我是康納的何塞·里卡多。我只是想回到關稅話題上。感謝您提出下一個問題。我知道自從你發表演說以來情況已經發生了迅速變化，政府對不同國家的關稅採取了不同的處理方式。您談到了一些樂器的零件來自墨西哥。您是否也調查過為您提供製程材料採購的二級供​​應商的情況，而這些製程材料也納入您製造的儀器中？

Yes. That's all factored into the analysis that Brian referenced earlier. It is all factored in there. Yes. And again, we don't see a lot of exposure for China or Canada. If there's any one country, where more exposure, it will be Mexico, including all those layers that you mentioned.

是的。這一切都已納入 Brian 先前提到的分析中。這一切都已被考慮在內了。是的。而且，我們並沒有看到中國或加拿大有太多的曝光。如果有一個國家曝光度更高的話，那就是墨西哥，包括您提到的所有層面。

Perfect, thank you. You're welcome.

非常好，謝謝。不客氣。

Thank you. There are currently no other questions in queue at this time. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

謝謝。目前隊列中沒有其他問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。