QuidelOrtho Corp (QDEL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

QuidelOrtho 召開電話會議,討論 2023 年第四季度和全年的財務業績。儘管呼吸季節面臨挑戰,但該公司在實驗室業務和呼吸產品市場份額方面取得了成功的一年。

他們報告稱,今年的收入和收益有所下降,但提供了 2024 年的財務指導,重點是成本節約和利潤率提高。該公司對實現長期收入目標充滿信心,並正在實施成本節約措施,力求在 2025 年節省 1 億美元。

他們也正在評估業務剝離的選擇,並計劃在即將到來的投資者日提供有關其舉措的更多細節。該公司對 Savanna Respiratory 產品的推出所帶來的潛在收入充滿信心,並相信該產品在推出三年後有可能產生 2.5 億美元的收入。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the QuidelOrtho Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference call is being recorded. An audio replay of the conference call will be available on the company's website shortly after this call.

    歡迎參加 QuidelOrtho 2023 年第四季和全年財務業績電話會議和網路廣播。 (操作員說明)請注意,本次電話會議正在錄音。電話會議結束後不久,公司網站上將提供電話會議的音訊重播。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Juliet Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations.

    我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁朱麗葉·坎寧安 (Juliet Cunningham)。

  • Juliet Cunningham

    Juliet Cunningham

  • Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining QuidelOrtho fourth quarter and full year financial results conference call. With me today are Doug Bryant, President and CEO; and Joe Busky, Chief Financial Officer. This conference call is being simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations page of our website, and a version of today's presentation can be downloaded there.

    謝謝。大家下午好,感謝您參加 QuidelOrtho 第四季度和全年財務業績電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Doug Bryant;和財務長喬·布斯基。本次電話會議同時在我們網站的投資者關係頁面上進行網路直播,您可以在那裡下載今天的簡報版本。

  • Before we begin, I will cover our safe harbor statement. The statements we will make during this call that are not strictly historical, including the company's expectations, plans, future performance and prospects are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified under Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 1, 2023, and subsequent reports filed with the SEC. Please refer to our SEC filings for a more detailed discussion of forward-looking statements and the risks and uncertainties.

    在我們開始之前,我將介紹我們的安全港聲明。我們在本次電話會議中所做的並非嚴格歷史性的陳述,包括公司的預期、計劃、未來業績和前景,均為1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述受許多風險和不確定性以及其他因素可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於我們截至 2023 年 1 月 1 日的財年 10-K 表格年度報告以及向 SEC 提交的後續報告中風險因素下確定的因素。請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件,以了解有關前瞻性陳述以及風險和不確定性的更詳細討論。

  • We cannot assure you that the forward-looking statements we make or are implied by our statements will be realized. Furthermore, such forward-looking statements represent management's judgment and expectations as of today. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement or any time-sensitive information to reflect future events, developments or changed circumstances for any other reason.

    我們無法向您保證我們所做的或我們的陳述中暗示的前瞻性陳述將會實現。此外,此類前瞻性陳述代表了管理階層截至目前為止的判斷和期望。除法律要求外,我們沒有義務更新任何前瞻性聲明或任何時間敏感資訊以反映未來事件、發展或因任何其他原因而發生的情況變化。

  • Also, during today's call, we will discuss certain items that do not conform to U.S. generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP. Please see Slide 3 for a list of non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix to the investor presentation and press release issued this afternoon. Both are available on the Investor Relations page of the QuidelOrtho website. Lastly, unless otherwise stated, all year-over-year growth rates, including revenue growth rates given on today's call, are given on a comparable constant currency basis.

    此外,在今天的電話會議中,我們將討論某些不符合美國公認會計原則或公認會計準則的項目。請參閱投影片 3 以了解非 GAAP 措施清單。這些非公認會計準則衡量指標與其最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量指標的調節表包含在今天下午發布的投資者介紹和新聞稿的附錄中。兩者均可在 QuidelOrtho 網站的投資者關係頁面上找到。最後,除非另有說明,所有同比增長率,包括今天電話會議上給出的收入增長率,都是在可比較的固定貨幣基礎上給出的。

  • And now I'd like to turn the call over to Doug Bryant.

    現在我想把電話轉給道格布萊恩特。

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Juliet. Good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for joining us today for the fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. 2023 was a foundational year for QuidelOrtho. Despite the brevity of the respiratory season in the fourth quarter, we performed well. More importantly, we grew above market in our labs business, gained market share in our industry-leading respiratory point-of-care products and achieved several internal milestones. Most notably, our operations team made significant permanent manufacturing upgrades, which increased our production capacity and supply chain resilience. This allowed us to address backlogs and positioned us to meet future market demand.

    謝謝你,茱麗葉。大家下午好,感謝您今天參加我們的 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 2023 年是 QuidelOrtho 的基礎年。儘管第四季度呼吸季節短暫,但我們表現良好。更重要的是,我們的實驗室業務成長高於市場水平,在業界領先的呼吸照護產品中獲得了市場份額,並實現了多個內部里程碑。最值得注意的是,我們的營運團隊進行了重大的永久性製造升級,這提高了我們的生產能力和供應鏈彈性。這使我們能夠解決積壓問題,並滿足未來的市場需求。

  • Our global sales team is now in place, actively cross-selling and we like the strength of our competitive position across the globe. Our combo test continued and continues and we've been able to not only gain market share but maintain pricing despite a lower volume season. We received more than 700 regulatory approvals in the U.S. Europe, Middle East and Africa and China with an additional 1,000 approvals in the rest of the world. This includes de novo 510(k) for both Sofia 2 SARS Antigen and the Savanna platform.

    我們的全球銷售團隊現已就位,積極進行交叉銷售,我們對我們在全球的競爭地位的實力感到滿意。我們的組合測試一直在繼續,我們不僅能夠獲得市場份額,而且儘管銷量較低,但仍能維持定價。我們在美國、歐洲、中東和非洲以及中國獲得了 700 多項監管批准,並在世界其他地區獲得了 1,000 多項批准。這包括 Sofia 2 SARS 抗原和 Savanna 平台的 de novo 510(k)。

  • Additionally, we identified substantial greater synergies while investing in the business and paying down $227 million in term loan debt. All these accomplishments helped to bolster our already strong competitive position and long-term growth profile. We believe we're well positioned to take additional share in key markets over the longer term. Let me turn to the top line numbers. Starting with the full year 2023.

    此外,我們在投資該業務和償還 2.27 億美元定期貸款債務時發現了更大的協同效應。所有這些成就都有助於鞏固我們本已強大的競爭地位和長期成長前景。我們相信,從長遠來看,我們有能力在關鍵市場獲得更多份額。讓我來看看最上面的行數字。從 2023 年全年開始。

  • Our total revenue was $3 billion, a decline of 26% on a supplemental combined basis compared to the prior year. The year-over-year decline was related to the respiratory -- the lower respiratory season in 2023 compared to the prior year, particularly in COVID-19-related testing, which was down roughly $1 billion. Although flu was $248 million for the year, right in the middle of our range of $230 million to $270 million, it was down 29% versus the prior year. Excluding respiratory, total revenue grew 5% on a supplemental combined basis for the full year.

    我們的總收入為 30 億美元,與前一年相比,補充合併收入下降了 26%。年比下降與呼吸道疾病有關——與前一年相比,2023 年是呼吸道疾病淡季,尤其是與 COVID-19 相關的檢測,下降了約 10 億美元。儘管今年流感銷售額為 2.48 億美元,正好處於 2.3 億美元至 2.7 億美元區間的中間,但與前一年相比下降了 29%。不包括呼吸系統,全年總收入在補充合併基礎上成長了 5%。

  • With that, I will not sugarcoat the fact that our fourth quarter numbers fell short of our expectations as we overestimated the size of the endemic COVID-19 and flu season. Ultimately, our optimistic outlook turned a solid growth enhancing year into a less appreciated achievement. Despite the relatively weaker respiratory season, we had several bright spots in point of care. First, recent third-party market data suggests that we gained share for respiratory products in both physician office and acute care segments versus our competitors, all while holding price steady.

    話雖如此,我不會粉飾這樣一個事實,即我們第四季度的數字沒有達到我們的預期,因為我們高估了地方性 COVID-19 和流感季節的規模。最終,我們的樂觀前景將穩健成長的一年變成了不那麼受重視的成就。儘管呼吸季節相對較弱,但我們在護理方面有幾個亮點。首先,最近的第三方市場數據表明,與競爭對手相比,我們在醫生辦公室和急診護理領域的呼吸產品份額有所增加,同時保持價格穩定。

  • We remain the industry leader in flu, SARs and RSV rapid diagnostic testing. Second, the number of Sofia placements grew to 89,000 instruments, which shows continued runway for instrument demand and positions us nicely for future higher margin revenue growth in the respiratory segment. Our fourth quarter results for total revenue came in at $743 million. Our respiratory revenue was down 49% compared to the prior year period. In North America, prevalence was steady but lacked the inflection point in demand that we would typically expect late in the fourth quarter. This could be an indication that distributor destocking on COVID-19 products will continue into Q1 of 2024. Our distributor partners typically close their fiscal year in March and purposely carry lower inventories.

    我們仍然是流感、SARS 和 RSV 快速診斷檢測領域的行業領導者。其次,Sofia 的投放數量增加至 89,000 台儀器,這表明儀器需求持續增長,並使我們為未來呼吸領域更高利潤的收入增長做好了準備。我們第四季的總營收為 7.43 億美元。與去年同期相比,我們的呼吸系統收入下降了 49%。在北美,流行率穩定,但缺乏我們通常預期在第四季末出現的需求拐點。這可能表明分銷商對 COVID-19 產品的庫存削減將持續到 2024 年第一季。我們的經銷商合作夥伴通常會在 3 月結束其財年,並有意降低庫存。

  • We also believe that the respiratory season -- or the respiratory testing contraction can be attributed to COVID-19 fatigue, perceived reduction in severity of recent strains and very little asymptomatic testing. Turning to our business portfolios. Our labs business really led the way this year in terms of growth. For the full year 2023, Labs grew 8% in constant currency in line with our expectations. Excluding respiratory, labs grew 13% in the fourth quarter and 10% for the full year 2023 in constant currency.

    我們還認為,呼吸季節或呼吸檢測收縮可歸因於 COVID-19 疲勞、近期菌株嚴重程度的減輕以及無症狀檢測的很少。轉向我們的業務組合。今年我們的實驗室業務在成長方面確實處於領先地位。 2023 年全年,以固定匯率計算,Labs 成長了 8%,符合我們的預期。不包括呼吸系統,以固定匯率計算,實驗室第四季成長 13%,2023 年全年成長 10%。

  • In our Transfusion Medicine business, we continue to see great potential and will invest further in our immuno hematology portfolio to continue advancing our market-leading position. On the other hand, we plan to responsibly transition out of the U.S. donor screening portfolio, which is lower growth and has lower margins. While our goal is to wind down this portfolio, we will certainly continue to support our existing customers and honor our contractual commitments.

    在我們的輸血醫學業務中,我們繼續看到巨大的潛力,並將進一步投資於我們的免疫血液學產品組合,以繼續提升我們的市場領先地位。另一方面,我們計劃負責任地退出美國捐贈者篩選組合,該組合的成長較低且利潤率較低。雖然我們的目標是逐步減少該產品組合,但我們肯定會繼續支持現有客戶並履行我們的合約承諾。

  • Our molecular business achieved significant milestones with the FDA approval and the U.S. launch of our Savanna multiplex molecular platform and the HSV VZV syndromic panel. This is a critical step in our strategy to bring central lab sensitivity and specificity to everyone from midsized hospitals to remote mobile clinics. The production ramp and marketing rollout are underway. We currently use low-volume manual manufacturing lines for production of this panel, but we are working toward deploying our high-volume automated solution. So while production in the short term will be dilutive, longer term, this automated line is expected to strengthen margins.

    隨著 FDA 的批准以及我們的 Savanna 多重分子平台和 HSV VZV 綜合徵組合在美國的推出,我們的分子業務取得了重要的里程碑。這是我們策略中的關鍵一步,旨在為從中型醫院到遠端移動診所的每個人帶來中央實驗室的敏感性和特異性。生產和行銷推廣正在進行中。我們目前使用小批量手動生產線來生產該面板,但我們正在努力部署我們的大批量自動化解決方案。因此,雖然短期內產量將會被稀釋,但從長遠來看,這條自動化生產線預計將提高利潤率。

  • We anticipate that our automated line will be in production well in advance of the year-end respiratory season. Within our point-of-care business, as I said earlier, our commercial team secured approximately 4,800 new Sofia instrument placements globally in 2023, raising our global installed base to about 89,000 Sofia analyzers.

    我們預計我們的自動化生產線將在年底呼吸季節之前投入生產。正如我之前所說,在我們的床邊護理業務中,我們的商業團隊於 2023 年在全球安裝了約 4,800 台新的 Sofia 儀器,使我們的全球安裝基礎增加到約 89,000 台 Sofia 分析儀。

  • The commercial launch of Sofia 2 SARS Antigen+, the first rapid antigen test cleared by the FDA with CLIA waiver in the United States market, strengthened our position as a top innovator and trusted leader in this evolving space. Additionally, through our Triage platform for cardiovascular, we have a revitalized focus on chronic diseases, including heart failure. This work stream will help clinicians detect, monitor and manage the silent pandemic of chronic diseases that tend to be overshadowed by the trending health story at the moment.

    Sofia 2 SARS Antigen+ 是美國市場上第一個獲得 FDA 批准並獲得 CLIA 豁免的快速抗原測試,其商業推出鞏固了我們作為這一不斷發展的領域的頂級創新者和值得信賴的領導者的地位。此外,透過我們的心血管分流平台,我們重新關注包括心臟衰竭在內的慢性疾病。這個工作流程將幫助臨床醫生發現、監測和管理慢性疾病的無聲流行,而這些疾病往往被當前流行的健康故事所掩蓋。

  • Shifting now to our third integration phase, transformation. We call it [QO Next], and it's geared towards accelerating the execution of value-driven initiatives for greater business efficiencies, investments and organizational agility. We know what needs to be done, and we understand the levers we need to pull. Specifically, we are shifting our product development, R&D and regulatory efforts to focus on menu expansion as we see ample opportunities to strengthen our competitive advantage and pull-through across an expanding customer base.

    現在進入我們的第三個整合階段:轉型。我們稱之為 [QO Next],它旨在加速執行價值驅動計劃,以提高業務效率、投資和組織敏捷性。我們知道需要做什麼,也了解需要採取哪些措施。具體來說,我們正在將產品開發、研發和監管工作的重點轉向菜單擴展,因為我們看到有充足的機會來加強我們的競爭優勢並在不斷擴大的客戶群中發揮作用。

  • We have been actively evaluating our real estate footprint and anticipate consolidating facilities, primarily in the United States. We intend to improve our organizational cost structure by eliminating underperforming nonvalue driven initiatives and initiating a senior level management delayering effort to create leaner teams, improve span of control and speed of execution. We believe this will further reduce our head count by 5% to 6%.

    我們一直在積極評估我們的房地產足跡,並預計將整合設施,主要是在美國。我們打算透過消除表現不佳的非價值驅動計畫來改善我們的組織成本結構,並啟動高階管理層的延緩工作,以創建更精簡的團隊,提高控制範圍和執行速度。我們相信這將進一步減少我們的員工人數 5% 至 6%。

  • Savanna has been a long time coming in the United States and our agenda at this point is clear, menu expansion and customer adoption. We're advancing both with FDA review of our RVP4 panel and others in the queue. Our U.S. sales team is meeting this week, and I can assure you a successful Savanna commercial launch is on their menu as well. As noted earlier, we will invest in the higher-growth immunohematology side of our Transfusion Medicine business. These investments are expected to drive higher returns and help balance the seasonal spikes in our current business model.

    Savanna 進入美國已有很長時間了,目前我們的議程很明確:菜單擴展和客戶採用。我們正在推進 FDA 對我們的 RVP4 小組和其他隊列中的小組的審查。我們的美國銷售團隊本週將召開會議,我可以向您保證,他們的菜單上也包括成功的 Savanna 商業發布。如前所述,我們將投資於輸血醫學業務中成長較高的免疫血液學領域。這些投資預計將帶來更高的回報,並有助於平衡我們當前業務模式的季節性高峰。

  • In summary, let me repeat that 2023 was a foundation-building year for us. We continue to establish QuidelOrtho as an industry leader, capable of serving the breadth of the health care continuum from the largest labs and hospital systems to the most remote points of care and in the home. We are a stable, diversified growth company, targeting about $19 billion out of a global $48 billion total addressable market. Finally, we are steadfast in accelerating our desired future state and financial goals.

    總之,我再說一遍,2023年對我們來說是奠基之年。我們繼續將 QuidelOrtho 打造成行業領導者,能夠為從最大的實驗室和醫院系統到最偏遠的護理點和家庭的整個醫療保健連續體提供服務。我們是一家穩定、多元化的成長型公司,目標市場規模為全球 480 億美元,目標市場規模約 190 億美元。最後,我們堅定不移地加速實現我們期望的未來狀態和財務目標。

  • With this, I'll let Joe take you through the financials in greater detail. Joe?

    接下來,我將讓喬帶您更詳細地了解財務狀況。喬?

  • Joseph M. Busky - CFO

    Joseph M. Busky - CFO

  • Okay. Thanks, Doug, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll begin with a summary of our operating results for the full year and fourth quarter of 2023 and to facilitate a comparison of the company's operating performance at full year growth rates that I referenced are presented on supplemental or all full year growth rates that I referenced are presented on a supplemental combined basis as if Quidel and Ortho are being combined for the applicable periods. I'm also going to refer to our earnings presentation, which is available on the IR page of our website.

    好的。謝謝,道格,大家下午好。首先,我將總結2023 年全年和第四季度的經營業績,以便於對我提到的公司全年增長率的經營業績進行比較,這些增長率是根據我所提供的補充或所有全年增長率來呈現的。引用的內容是在補充合併的基礎上呈現的,就好像 Quidel 和 Ortho 在適用期間合併一樣。我還將參考我們的收益演示,該演示可以在我們網站的 IR 頁面上找到。

  • Starting with the full year 2023 results on Slide 4. Total revenue was $3 billion, a decline of 26% year-over-year. This decline was due to the lower respiratory season in '23 compared to the prior year, with approximately $1 billion impact from declines in COVID-19-related testing. Excluding respiratory revenue, total revenue grew 4% -- grew 5% for the full year.

    從幻燈片 4 上的 2023 年全年業績開始。總收入為 30 億美元,年減 26%。這一下降是由於 23 年的呼吸道季節較上年較低,與 COVID-19 相關的檢測下降造成約 10 億美元的影響。不包括呼吸系統收入,總收入成長 4%,全年成長 5%。

  • Turning now to the full year 2023 operating results. Adjusted gross profit margin was 51%, which was down approximately 800 basis points compared to the prior year due to lower respiratory revenues, again, due to lower COVID-19 testing. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year of 2023 was $723 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 24%. Adjusted diluted EPS for the full year 2023 was $4.13, a 70% decline from the prior year. The year-over-year change in adjusted diluted EPS and adjusted EBITDA was a result of the decline in COVID-19 revenue compared to the prior year reported earlier. And our full year effective tax rate was 22.3%.

    現在轉向 2023 年全年營運業績。調整後的毛利率為 51%,與前一年相比下降了約 800 個基點,原因是呼吸系統收入下降,同樣是由於 COVID-19 檢測減少。 2023 年全年調整後 EBITDA 為 7.23 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 24%。 2023 年全年調整後攤薄每股收益為 4.13 美元,較前一年下降 70%。調整後攤薄每股收益和調整後 EBITDA 的同比變化是由於 COVID-19 收入較早前報告的上一年下降所致。我們全年的有效稅率為22.3%。

  • And now I'll provide our fourth quarter results shown on Slide 5. Total revenue was $743 million as reported which was a decline of 14% year-over-year due to $77 million of COVID-19 headwinds from the prior year. Adjusted gross profit margin was 52.4%, which was down 220 basis points compared to the prior year period due to lower respiratory revenues. Adjusted EBITDA was $195 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 26%. Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.17, a 34% decline from the prior year period, and our fourth quarter effective tax rate was 23%. The change -- the year-over-year change primarily driven by product mix with lower respiratory revenues that carry higher margins than our nonrespiratory business.

    現在我將提供幻燈片 5 中顯示的第四季度業績。據報告,總收入為 7.43 億美元,由於去年 7700 萬美元的 COVID-19 不利因素,同比下降 14%。由於呼吸系統收入下降,調整後毛利率為 52.4%,較上年同期下降 220 個基點。調整後 EBITDA 為 1.95 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 26%。調整後稀釋後每股收益為 1.17 美元,比去年同期下降 34%,第四季有效稅率為 23%。這一變化——同比變化主要是由呼吸系統收入較低的產品組合推動的,但其利潤率高於我們的非呼吸系統業務。

  • Our nonrespiratory business grew 9% in both reported and constant currency in Q4 compared to the prior year period. Our Labs business led the way with strong revenue growth, which was a great accomplishment by the team after successfully navigating and resolving significant instant backlog due to supply chain issues in the first 3 quarters of the year. For the full year 2023, Labs grew 8% in constant currency, in line with our expectations. Excluding respiratory, Labs grew 13% in Q4 and 10% for the full year 2023 in constant currency. Given the continued strength and high visibility we have in our Labs business, we continue to expect above-market growth.

    與去年同期相比,我們的非呼吸業務業務在第四季度以報告貨幣和固定匯率計算均成長了 9%。我們的實驗室業務以強勁的收入成長引領潮流,這是團隊在成功解決並解決了今年前三個季度因供應鏈問題而造成的大量即時積壓之後取得的巨大成就。 2023 年全年,以固定匯率計算,Labs 成長了 8%,符合我們的預期。不包括呼吸系統,以固定匯率計算,Labs 在第四季度成長了 13%,2023 年全年成長了 10%。鑑於我們在實驗室業務中的持續實力和高知名度,我們繼續預期高於市場的成長。

  • Our respiratory results in Q4 were lower than expected as customer ordering patterns followed seasonal respiratory trends, as Doug mentioned. Compared to our expectations at the end of Q3, the larger part of the respiratory miss in Q4 was due to lower-than-expected COVID-19 in flu markets, both of which came in below 2022. Our underlying business trends and sales activity remains strong. We have a market-leading position in respiratory. Our combo test continues to gain traction, and these trends have enabled us to gain approximately 200 basis points of respiratory market share and maintain pricing despite a lower overall season in 2023.

    正如 Doug 所提到的,我們第四季的呼吸系統結果低於預期,因為客戶訂購模式遵循季節性呼吸系統趨勢。與我們在第三季末的預期相比,第四季度呼吸系統失誤的大部分是由於流感市場中的COVID-19 低於預期,這兩個市場都低於2022 年。我們的基本業務趨勢和銷售活動仍然如此強的。我們在呼吸領域擁有市場領先地位。我們的組合測試繼續獲得關注,這些趨勢使我們能夠獲得約 200 個基點的呼吸市場份額,並在 2023 年整體銷售季較低的情況下維持定價。

  • In terms of geographies, excluding respiratory and in constant currency, fourth quarter North America revenue was flat year-over-year. EMEA grew 23%. China was up 37% of a low prior year comparison due to lockdowns in 2022 and Asia Pacific, which includes Japan and Latin America grew 10%. For the full year 2023, North America revenue was roughly flat year-over-year. EMEA grew 8%, China grew 21% and Asia Pacific, Japan and Latin America grew 9%. We saw notable strength in reagents, consumables and services growing in the mid-single digits, excluding respiratory.

    從地區來看,排除呼吸系統和以固定匯率計算,第四季度北美收入較去年同期持平。歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長 23%。由於 2022 年的封鎖,中國的成長率比上一年的低點增長了 37%,而包括日本和拉丁美洲在內的亞太地區則增長了 10%。 2023 年全年,北美地區營收年比大致持平。歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長 8%,中國成長 21%,亞太地區、日本和拉丁美洲成長 9%。我們看到試劑、消耗品和服務的顯著成長以中個位數成長,不包括呼吸系統。

  • Turning to our business lines. As I mentioned, our Labs business had a great fourth quarter with approximately 13% revenue growth, excluding respiratory, driven by strength in both [clinical chemistry] and immunoassay. This strong performance rounds out a great year for the Labs business and is a testament to our commercial strategy to integrate clinical chemistry and immunoassay testing. In fact, we had growth of 11% in integrated vitro systems and 14% in automated systems for full year 2023, which validated our strategy to lead with integrated systems.

    轉向我們的業務線。正如我所提到的,我們的實驗室業務在第四季度表現出色,在[臨床化學]和免疫分析方面的實力推動下,不包括呼吸系統業務,收入增長了約 13%。這一強勁的表現為實驗室業務帶來了豐碩的一年,也證明了我們整合臨床化學和免疫分析測試的商業策略。事實上,2023 年全年,我們的整合體外系統成長了 11%,自動化系統成長了 14%,這驗證了我們以整合系統領先的策略。

  • In our Transfusion Medicine business, Q4 revenue increased by approximately 2% in constant currency. Excluding the impact of the donor screening business, immunohematology performed well during the fourth quarter with high single-digit growth in the full year 2023 with growth in line with market rates in the low single digits. We expect to improve efficiency in the TM business by transitioning out of the U.S. donor screening portfolio, which has a lower growth and margin profile than other parts of our business. We plan to invest in our immunohematology business in 2024, and we will provide more detail on our plans for this business during our upcoming Investor Day on March 20.

    在我們的輸血醫學業務中,以固定匯率計算,第四季營收成長了約 2%。排除捐贈者篩檢業務的影響,免疫血液學在第四季度表現良好,2023 年全年實現高個位數成長,成長與低個位數的市場成長率一致。我們希望透過退出美國捐贈者篩選業務組合來提高 TM 業務的效率,該業務的成長和利潤率低於我們其他業務的部分。我們計劃在 2024 年投資我們的免疫血液學業務,我們將在即將到來的 3 月 20 日投資者日期間提供有關該業務計劃的更多詳細資訊。

  • Fourth quarter point-of-care revenues declined by 42% year-over-year due to COVID-19 headwinds as discussed earlier. Excluding respiratory revenue, our point-of-care business grew 6% in Q4 and approximately 2% for the full year in constant currency. Our Triage business grew in the low double digits in many OUS markets in Q4, including EMEA, 14%; China, 15%; Latin America, 13%, which shows that our early cross-selling initiatives are bearing fruit. Our molecular revenue decreased by 42% compared to the prior year period due to COVID-19 prior year comparisons, excluding respiratory, molecular revenue declined by 10% in Q4 and 13% for the full year 2023 in constant currency. Obviously, we're excited about the U.S. commercial launch of Savanna and the anticipated growth opportunities ahead.

    如前所述,由於 COVID-19 的不利因素,第四季度床邊護理收入年減 42%。不包括呼吸系統收入,我們的床邊護理業務在第四季度增長了 6%,按固定匯率計算全年增長約 2%。第四季度,我們的分流業務在許多 OUS 市場實現了低兩位數成長,其中 EMEA 成長了 14%;中國,15%;拉丁美洲,13%,這顯示我們早期的交叉銷售措施正在取得成果。由於與去年同期相比,由於COVID-19,我們的分子收入下降了42%(不包括呼吸道疾病),以固定匯率計算,第四季度的分子收入下降了10%,2023 年全年的分子收入下降了13%。顯然,我們對 Savanna 在美國的商業推出以及未來預期的成長機會感到興奮。

  • And lastly, we strengthened our balance sheet by paying down $227 million in term loan debt during the year. We generated $89 million in adjusted free cash flow in the fourth quarter and $270 million for the full year. And as of December 31, 2023, we had $175 million in cash and marketable securities. And with that, I'd like to turn to our 2024 financial guidance and provide the assumptions that went into our plan, and I will take you through this as clearly as I can. Our nonrespiratory business is a highly predictable razor-razorblade model, and the guidance range there is relatively tight. But our respiratory business is not as predictable so our respiratory revenue range is wider than in prior years.

    最後,我們透過在這一年中償還 2.27 億美元的定期貸款債務來加強我們的資產負債表。第四季調整後自由現金流為 8,900 萬美元,全年為 2.7 億美元。截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日,我們擁有 1.75 億美元的現金和有價證券。說到這裡,我想談談我們的 2024 年財務指導,並提供我們計劃中的假設,我將盡可能清楚地向您介紹這一點。我們的非呼吸業務是一個高度可預測的剃刀-剃刀刀片模型,指導範圍相對較小。但我們的呼吸系統業務並不那麼可預測,因此我們的呼吸系統收入範圍比前幾年更廣泛。

  • We've based our respiratory guidance on historical flu season market size averages going back to 2017. We expect 2024 to be additional year with total revenue in the range of $2.76 billion to $3.07 billion, a decline of 7% to growth of 3% in constant currency. We believe that this is a conservative range that accounts for the higher variability in the respiratory market.

    我們的呼吸指南是基於自 2017 年以來的歷史流感季節市場規模平均值。我們預計 2024 年總收入將在 27.6 億美元至 30.7 億美元之間,下降 7%,成長 3%。恆定貨幣。我們認為,這是一個保守的範圍,可以解釋呼吸市場的較高波動性。

  • In addition, there were nonrecurring items that benefited 2023 but are not expected in 2024, including in Q1 of '23, a government COVID-19 award of $143 million, along with the inventory release of $39 million, which taken together, brought the government order in line with our respiratory margins. We made the business decision that without this inventory reserve release would not have participated in the low-margin government award, so they must be viewed as part of the same transaction. And second, also in Q1 of '23, a onetime collaboration settlement with a third-party of approximately $19 million, which impacted both revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

    此外,還有一些非經常性項目使2023 年受益,但預計2024 年不會出現這種情況,其中包括23 年第一季政府發放的1.43 億美元的COVID-19 資金以及3900 萬美元的庫存釋放,這些項目加起來使政府順序與我們的呼吸裕度一致。我們所做的商業決定是,如果沒有這次庫存儲備釋放,就不會參與低利潤的政府獎勵,因此它們必須被視為同一交易的一部分。其次,同樣在 23 年第一季度,與第三方達成了約 1,900 萬美元的一次性合作和解,這影響了收入和調整後的 EBITDA。

  • Now let me provide details on the components of our 2024 guidance. Of the total revenue range, we expect nonrespiratory revenue of between $2.3 billion to $2.34 billion. We expect Labs growth to be in the mid- to high single digits in 2024. Excluding the onetime third-party collaboration settlement of $19 million in 2023 and transitioning out of the U.S. donor screening portfolio, we expect nonrespiratory year-over-year growth of 4% to 6% in 2024.

    現在讓我詳細介紹 2024 年指南的組成部分。在總收入範圍中,我們預期非呼吸系統收入在 23 億至 23.4 億美元之間。我們預計 2024 年 Labs 的成長將達到中高個位數。不包括 2023 年 1900 萬美元的一次性第三方合作和解以及從美國捐贈者篩選組合中過渡出來,我們預計非呼吸系統的同比增長為2024 年為4% 至6%。

  • We expect respiratory revenue of between $460 million and $730 million, which we believe provides the range necessary to capture the absolute low end as well as provide a reasonable high end given the high variability of the Respiratory business. This respiratory guidance assumes a range of 40 million to 60 million flu tests in the U.S. per year. Given the gap between our full year COVID-19 expectations versus how the respiratory season played out in Q4, we are resetting our COVID-19 range to the low $200 million for 2024. This again excludes any new government contracts, and we believe more accurately reflects the current endemic environment.

    我們預計呼吸系統收入在 4.6 億美元至 7.3 億美元之間,我們認為,鑑於呼吸系統業務的高度可變性,該收入範圍足以捕獲絕對低端並提供合理的高端。該呼吸指南假設美國每年進行 4,000 萬至 6,000 萬次流感檢測。鑑於我們對全年COVID-19 的預期與第四季度呼吸道疾病季節的情況之間存在差距,我們將2024 年的COVID-19 範圍重置為2 億美元的低位。這再次排除了任何新的政府合同,我們認為更準確反映了當前的流行環境。

  • Our guidance also assumes minimal contribution of between $30 million to $50 million in respiratory revenues from Savanna RVP4, and we expect that the revenue to be primarily in the fourth quarter of 2024, given the timing of approvals for the respiratory indication, which we expect in Q1. We continue to expect Savanna instrument placements of approximately 1,000 in 2024, which will pave the way for 2025 Savanna revenue growth.

    我們的指導還假設Savanna RVP4 對呼吸系統收入的貢獻最低為3000 萬美元至5000 萬美元,考慮到呼吸系統適應症的批准時間(我們預計在2024 年第四季度),收入將主要出現在2024 年第四季。Q1.我們仍預計 2024 年 Savanna 儀器放置量約為 1,000 個,這將為 2025 年 Savanna 收入成長鋪平道路。

  • Moving down the P&L, we expect SG&A to be relatively flat and approximate the 2023 year-end exit rate on an annualized basis. We expect R&D to be flat at approximately 8% of revenue in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $565 million to $720 million or 21% to 24% margin.

    從損益表來看,我們預期 SG&A 將相對持平,並且以年化計算接近 2023 年年底退出率。我們預計 2024 年研發將穩定在營收的 8% 左右。調整後 EBITDA 在 5.65 億美元至 7.2 億美元之間,即利潤率 21% 至 24%。

  • Our adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA margin as well as adjusted EPS are obviously significantly impacted by bringing down the estimate for endemic COVID-19 revenue and widening the range for flu, which impacts the bottom line disproportionately given the high margins on these products. To counterbalance these impacts, as Doug mentioned, we are taking actions to reduce cost by midyear, which is expected to yield approximately $50 million in annualized cost savings.

    我們調整後的EBITDA 和EBITDA 利潤率以及調整後每股收益顯然受到了流行性COVID-19 收入估計的降低和流感範圍的擴大的影響,考慮到這些產品的高利潤率,這對利潤產生了不成比例的影響。為了抵​​消這些影響,正如 Doug 所提到的,我們正在採取行動在年中之前降低成本,預計每年可節省約 5000 萬美元的成本。

  • We are continuing to execute on [QO Next,] which will have a more significant impact in 2025 and 2024. We expect gradual improvement in Savanna margins as we ramp up sales and move to high-volume manufacturing during the second half of 2024. So we finished 2023 a 24% adjusted EBITDA margin, and we are guiding to a midpoint of roughly 22% in 2024. At a high level, this approximates a 200 basis point decrease consisting of: one, lower COVID-19 revenue, which would be approximately 3 points of margin; two, the impact of U.S. commercial Savanna launch with initially dilutive margins of approximately 1 point; and three, offset by approximately 2 points of expected improvement in margin due to cost savings and synergy achievement.

    我們將繼續執行 [QO Next],這將在 2025 年和 2024 年產生更重大的影響。我們預計,隨著我們在 2024 年下半年提高銷量並轉向大批量生產,Savanna 的利潤率將逐步改善。 2023 年,我們的調整後EBITDA 利潤率達到24%,我們的目標是到2024 年達到大約22% 的中點。在較高水準上,這大約是200 個基點的下降,其中包括:一是COVID -19 收入下降,這將是大約3個點的保證金;二、美國商業Savanna推出的影響,最初攤薄利潤約1個百分點;第三,由於成本節約和綜效的實現,預期利潤率提高了約 2 個百分點。

  • Interest expense is assumed to be approximately $150 million in 2024. We've assumed a full year effective tax rate in 2024 of 23% to 24%. Adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $2.40 to $3.07 based on 67.6 million shares outstanding. The earnings that give us confidence that we can achieve our high 20s long-term EBITDA margin in 2025 include our expectations related to cost savings programs, which includes head count reductions of 5% to 6%, continued Savanna growth and margin improvements in 2025, planned synergy target achievement and finally, benefits from our [QO Next] program in 2025.

    假設 2024 年利息支出約為 1.5 億美元。我們假設 2024 年全年有效稅率為 23% 至 24%。基於 6,760 萬股流通股,調整後攤薄每股收益在 2.40 美元至 3.07 美元之間。讓我們有信心在 2025 年實現 20 多歲長期 EBITDA 利潤率的收益包括我們對成本節約計劃的預期,其中包括員工人數減少 5% 至 6%、Savanna 的持續增長和 2025 年利潤率的提高,計劃的協同目標實現,並最終從我們2025 年的[QO Next] 計劃中受益。

  • Based on our current outlook, we believe that our 2024 financial guidance is both realistic and data-driven given the unpredictable nature of the respiratory season and where we are in the process of transforming our company. We remain confident that we can achieve our long-term revenue targets of 6% to 9% top line growth and 27% to 29% EBITDA margins in 2025. We plan to provide greater detail about our specific initiatives during our March 20 Investor Day.

    根據我們目前的展望,考慮到呼吸季節的不可預測性以及我們公司的轉型過程,我們認為 2024 年的財務指導既現實又以數據為基礎。我們仍有信心在2025 年實現6% 至9% 的營收成長和27% 至29% EBITDA 利潤率的長期收入目標。我們計劃在3 月20 日投資者日期間提供有關我們具體舉措的更多細節。

  • So now I'll turn the call back to Doug for closing remarks.

    現在我將把電話轉回給道格,讓他作結束語。

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Joe. 2023 was our first full year operating as QuidelOrtho. We successfully laid the foundation for building our global company, one poised for advancing the power of diagnostics for a healthier future. Building a high-performing organization took a lot of hard work by many of my colleagues. I would be remiss not to thank them for their dedication, perseverance in the many long hours that took to achieve such important milestones.

    謝謝,喬。 2023 年是我們以 QuidelOrtho 名義營運的第一個全年。我們成功地為建立我們的全球公司奠定了基礎,該公司準備提升診斷能力,創造更健康的未來。建立一個高績效的組織需要我的許多同事付出大量的努力。如果我不感謝他們在漫長的時間內為實現如此重要的里程碑所做的奉獻和堅持,那我就太失職了。

  • Looking ahead, I see a bright future for our company, our customers and patient health. We have a growth strategy and an action plan in place. We're accelerating our business efficiency initiatives, cost saving measures and transformational programs. These efforts, combined with our R&D menu expansion pipeline, global pull-through across our growing installed base and commercial excellence program will provide further support to achieve our long-term revenue targets of 6% to 9% top line growth and 27% to 29% EBITDA margins in 2025.

    展望未來,我看到我們公司、我們的客戶和患者健康的光明未來。我們制定了成長策略和行動計劃。我們正在加速實施業務效率計劃、成本節約措施和轉型計劃。這些努力,加上我們的研發菜單擴展管道、不斷增長的安裝基礎的全球拉動以及商業卓越計劃,將為實現我們的長期收入目標提供進一步的支持,即收入增長6% 至9%,收入增長27 % 至29%。2025 年 EBITDA 利潤率%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question is from the line of Andrew Brackmann with William Blair.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自安德魯·布拉克曼(Andrew Brackmann)和威廉·布萊爾(William Blair)的線路。

  • Andrew Frederick Brackmann - Research Analyst

    Andrew Frederick Brackmann - Research Analyst

  • Maybe to start on guidance, and thanks for all the color there. It does sound like there's been some sort of change in philosophy to setting this annual range versus sort of your process in the past. So can you maybe just talk to that a little bit? And as a second part here, Joe, you talked about sort of some areas of conservatism there. But any part of the guide that you call out as a little bit higher risk or things need to sort of go your way in order to achieve those?

    也許從指導開始,感謝那裡的所有顏色。與過去的流程相比,設定這個年度範圍的概念確實發生了某種變化。那你能談談這個嗎?作為第二部分,喬,您談到了那裡的一些保守主義領域。但是,您認為指南中的任何部分風險較高,或者事情需要按照您的方式進行才能實現這些目標?

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks for the question, Andrew. I'll start, and Joe, you jump in. We did see COVID sales in Q3 and then it dropped pretty dramatically. SARS hospitalizations are now down the severity of disease, clearly not what it once was. And as I mentioned, we don't see any asymptomatic testing whatsoever. So I think it is absolutely prudent for us to take down the COVID number to the lower end of the range. And that's probably the most dramatic change in philosophy. I'll let you jump in there, Joe.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,安德魯。我先開始,喬,你插話吧。我們確實看到第三季的新冠肺炎銷量,然後急劇下降。 SARS 的住院治療現在病情嚴重程度有所下降,顯然沒有以前那麼嚴重了。正如我所提到的,我們沒有看到任何無症狀檢測。因此,我認為我們將新冠病毒感染人數降至該範圍的下限是絕對謹慎的。這可能是哲學上最引人注目的改變。我會讓你跳進去的,喬。

  • Joseph M. Busky - CFO

    Joseph M. Busky - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Doug. So just to add on to that point, Andrew, when you think about the margin profile that we had communicated previously of low 50s GP margin and high 20s EBITDA margin, that was really predicated on the endemic COVID revenue being in the high end of the range that we had communicated closer to the $400 million. And so now having seen what happened in Q4 of [2023], we feel it prudent to pull it down to the very low end of that range, closer to $200 million. And that has about a 300 to 400 basis point impact on the margins. Just by pulling out that very high-margin revenue. So we are taking actions to counteract that, but it's going to take a little time to get back to where we want to be.

    是的。謝謝,道格。因此,安德魯,補充一點,當你想到我們之前傳達的 50 多美元的低 GP 利潤率和 20 多美元的 EBITDA 利潤率的利潤率情況時,這實際上是基於流行病的收入處於高端。我們所傳達的範圍接近4 億美元。因此,現在看到 [2023] 年第四季發生的情況後,我們認為將其拉至該範圍的最低端(接近 2 億美元)是謹慎的做法。這對利潤率產生大約 300 到 400 個基點的影響。只要拿出非常高的利潤收入就可以了。因此,我們正在採取行動來應對這個問題,但需要一些時間才能回到我們想要的狀態。

  • We do expect to get back to where we want to be in 2025. So that is the respiratory -- the big-ticket item in the respiratory section. The flu numbers are actually very consistent in '24 with what they were in 2023. The only difference is now you've got the additional respiratory revenue for Savanna that I talked about in the range of $30 million to $50 million, which we expect mostly will come in Q4. And the other areas, RSV and Strep, again, they're very similar to what we did in 2023. So I don't see a lot of risk there.

    我們確實希望在 2025 年回到我們想要的目標。這就是呼吸系統——呼吸系統領域的高價產品。實際上,24 年的流感數字與2023 年的數字非常一致。唯一的區別是,現在你已經獲得了我提到的Savanna 的額外呼吸收入,範圍在3000 萬至5000 萬美元之間,這是我們最期望的將在第四季推出。至於其他領域,RSV 和鏈球菌,它們與我們在 2023 年所做的非常相似。所以我認為那裡沒有太多風險。

  • And then finally, moving to the nonrespiratory revenue section, we've proven that, that's a very predictable part of our business. And you can see that by what we did in 2023. And you can see that we've put a fairly tight range on that in 2024. We feel pretty good about that revenue and where it's going to come out in the 4% to 6% range.

    最後,轉向非呼吸收入部分,我們已經證明,這是我們業務中非常可預測的部分。你可以透過我們在2023 年所做的事情看到這一點。你可以看到我們在2024 年設定了一個相當嚴格的範圍。我們對這一收入以及它將在4% 到6% 的範圍內的表現感到非常滿意% 範圍。

  • Andrew Frederick Brackmann - Research Analyst

    Andrew Frederick Brackmann - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then, Joe, maybe just another one for you on the balance sheet and debt level. It looks like leverage is starting to creep up a little bit. Can you maybe just sort of talk about your comfort with the current leverage ratio, any covenants that we should be taking note of and sort of your plan for debt paydowns throughout the 2024?

    好的。然後,喬,也許只是您的資產負債表和債務水平方面的另一項。看起來槓桿率開始小幅上升。您能否談談您對當前槓桿率的滿意度、我們應該注意的任何契約以及您在 2024 年償還債務的計劃?

  • Joseph M. Busky - CFO

    Joseph M. Busky - CFO

  • Yes, Andrew, it's -- the leverage ratio, the net debt leverage ratio at the end of '23 was at 3.2%, but it's really important to note, and if you -- I'm sure you've all done this, but if you look at the credit agreement, and the way that the leverage ratio is calculated, you'll see that we get the ability to add pro forma adjustments like synergies and like head count reductions that we've talked about. And so the actual leverage ratio that goes against the covenant is about half a turn or maybe even a little bit more than half a turn more than what the financial statement straight calculation would give you. So in other words, our credit agreement calculation for leverage at the end of the year is going to be more like 2.6 versus that 3.2 that you calculated. So if you carry that through the end of the year, we should be right around 3x levered per the credit agreement versus a covenant of 3.5. So it gets a little tighter, but we feel like we're in okay shape. Not really concerned there.

    是的,安德魯,槓桿率,23 年底的淨債務槓桿率為 3.2%,但值得注意的是,如果你——我相信你們都做到了這一點,但如果你查看信貸協議以及槓桿率的計算方式,您會發現我們能夠添加預計調整,例如協同效應和我們已經討論過的人員減少。因此,違反契約的實際槓桿比率比財務報表直接計算得出的槓桿率高出約半圈,甚至可能比半圈多一點。換句話說,我們年底的信貸協議計算的槓桿率將更像是 2.6,而不是您計算的 3.2。因此,如果你把這個數字維持到今年年底,我們的槓桿率應該是信貸協議的 3 倍左右,而契約的槓桿率為 3.5 倍。所以它變得有點緊,但我們感覺我們的狀態還不錯。那裡不太關心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Alex Nowak with Craig-Hallum.

    下一個問題來自亞歷克斯·諾瓦克(Alex Nowak)和克雷格·哈勒姆(Craig-Hallum)的問題。

  • Alexander David Nowak - Senior Research Analyst

    Alexander David Nowak - Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. So you provided an endemic respiratory rate for 2023, and you were very confident in it throughout the year and sales still came in below that. So before COVID, the respiratory business for Quidel stand-alone was roughly $150 million of sales. Now your endemic rate for 2024 as it said today is $460 million to $730 million. Now if you get this endemic rate wrong for 2024, there's a lot of downside. I guess the question is why do you think this new number is right?

    好的。偉大的。因此,您提供了 2023 年的地方性呼吸頻率,並且您全年對此非常有信心,但銷售額仍然低於該水平。因此,在新冠疫情爆發之前,Quidel 的呼吸業務銷售額約為 1.5 億美元。現在,如今天所說,2024 年的盛行率為 4.6 億至 7.3 億美元。現在,如果你把 2024 年的盛行率搞錯了,就會產生很多負面影響。我想問題是你為什麼認為這個新數字是正確的?

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks for the question, Alex. We think we have a pretty good understanding of market size, and we think the number of tests starting with flu, between $40 million and $60 million makes the most sense. We haven't seen something as low as $40 million in a while. And we wouldn't expect at this stage to see something more than $60 million. So I think we've pegged the market size correct. The question is what's your market share? Well, our market share actually has increased in the recent report that we saw this morning that increased slightly more than that. Well, the other factor is what's happening with your price. Well, our price basically is flat. And we've been able to take share in place Sofia analyzers with that same price. We've also seen a shift towards the combo assay, which is super healthy. So obviously, very difficult to predict this market, which is why we're widening the range.

    謝謝你的提問,亞歷克斯。我們認為我們對市場規模有很好的了解,我們認為從流感開始的測試數量在 4000 萬美元到 6000 萬美元之間是最有意義的。我們已經有一段時間沒有看到低至 4000 萬美元的價格了。現階段我們預計不會超過 6000 萬美元。所以我認為我們確定的市場規模是正確的。問題是你的市佔率是多少?嗯,我們的市場份額實際上有所增加,在我們今天早上看到的最新報告中,增幅略高於此。好吧,另一個因素是你的價格發生了什麼變化。嗯,我們的價格基本上是持平的。我們已經能夠以相同的價格搶佔 Sofia 分析儀的份額。我們也看到了向組合檢測的轉變,這是非常健康的。顯然,預測這個市場非常困難,這就是我們擴大範圍的原因。

  • Alexander David Nowak - Senior Research Analyst

    Alexander David Nowak - Senior Research Analyst

  • Now across Diagnostics, what other benchtop systems have ramped to $30 million to $50 million of sales on a single test in less than a year. Just that we can use that as a proxy for Savanna at the end of this year.

    現在,在整個診斷領域,其他桌上型系統在不到一年的時間內通過一次測試銷售額就已增至 3,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。只是我們可以在今年年底用它作為 Savanna 的代理。

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • What other ones?

    還有哪些?

  • Alexander David Nowak - Senior Research Analyst

    Alexander David Nowak - Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes, I'm just trying to -- yes, what gives you the confidence in the -- yes, the $30 million to $50 million revenue range for Savanna Respiratory?

    是的,我只是想——是的,是什麼讓您對——是的,Savanna Respiratory 的 3000 萬至 5000 萬美元收入範圍充滿信心?

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, okay. What I would say is, early on, we've seen placements and 100% of our placements have indicated their interest and strong desire to run our respiratory viral panel product. So 100% of the customers that we've closed and shipped thus far with Savanna, 100% of them are highly likely to order that product as we go into the fourth quarter -- third and fourth quarter. That's significant. And the number of tests on average that they're running or plan to run is about 3,000 per customer. Full flu season with a respiratory season would be Q4, Q1. So if you take the 1,000 analyzers that we intend to place times our assumed price times the 3,000 tests, and you assume that holds true. And then you take and you split it evenly between the 2 quarters, you get roughly to what we're suggesting, what we're going to do for Savanna in 2024. So those are our assumptions. You can argue with the assumptions, if you like. But those are the facts and those are our assumptions, and that's the basis for the number.

    哦,那好吧。我想說的是,我們很早就看到了安置情況,並且我們 100% 的安置情況都表明了他們對運行我們的呼吸道病毒檢測產品的興趣和強烈願望。因此,到目前為止,我們已經透過 Savanna 關閉並發貨的客戶中,100% 的客戶很可能在我們進入第四季度(第三季度和第四季度)時訂購該產品。這很重要。他們正在運行或計劃運行的平均測試數量約為每個客戶 3,000 次。完整的流感季節和呼吸道季節將是第四季、第一季。因此,如果您將我們打算放置的 1,000 台分析儀乘以我們假設的價格,再乘以 3,000 次測試,並且您認為這是正確的。然後你將其平均分配到兩個季度,你就會大致了解我們的建議,以及我們將在 2024 年為 Savanna 所做的事情。這些就是我們的假設。如果您願意,您可以反駁這些假設。但這些都是事實,都是我們的假設,這就是這個數字的基礎。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from the line of Casey Woodring with JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Casey Woodring。

  • Casey Rene Woodring - Research Analyst

    Casey Rene Woodring - Research Analyst

  • Great. Just on the 21% to 24% adjusted EBITDA margin for this year, I appreciate you quantifying the components driving the year-over-year difference against '23, but I was hoping that you can bridge that [24] number to your comment on getting back to where you want to be in 2025. Are you talking about the LRP range of 27% to 29%? And if so, just what assumptions have changed on the base business that's preventing you from getting there? Or are you saying today that the step down is all on kind of lower COVID assumptions and the slight Savanna manufacturing headwind in the first part of the year?

    偉大的。就今年 21% 至 24% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率而言,我很欣賞您量化了與 23 年相比導致同比差異的因素,但我希望您能將該 [24] 數字與您的評論聯繫起來回到你想要的2025 年目標。你說的是27% 到29% 的LRP 範圍嗎?如果是這樣,到底是什麼基礎業務的假設發生了變化,阻礙了您實現這一目標?或者您今天是否說,此次降級完全是由於新冠肺炎疫情假設較低以及今年上半年稀樹草原製造業的輕微逆風?

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. We're lowering -- to be clear, Casey, thanks for the question. We're lowering our guidance on COVID. We think it's prudent, but that has a consequence in terms -- because of mix as a consequence (inaudible). We're going to solve for that. And so if you think about what we've just announced in terms of the head count reduction, again, that gets us about $50 million, as Joe said. And then you come back into the number if you want. But effectively, we're assuming that we generate another $100 million in savings in 2025 through our [QO NEXT] initiatives.

    是的。我們正在降低——要明確的是,凱西,謝謝你的提問。我們正在降低對新冠疫情的指導。我們認為這是謹慎的,但這會產生後果——因為結果是混合的(聽不清楚)。我們將解決這個問題。因此,如果你考慮我們剛剛宣布的裁員計劃,正如 Joe 所說,這將為我們帶來約 5000 萬美元的收入。如果你願意的話,然後你就可以回到這個號碼。但實際上,我們假設透過我們的 [QO NEXT] 計劃,我們將在 2025 年再節省 1 億美元。

  • Joseph M. Busky - CFO

    Joseph M. Busky - CFO

  • And then Savanna becomes more accretive with the continued growth in 2025.

    然後,隨著 2025 年的持續成長,薩凡納將變得更加增值。

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • That's the other factor.

    這是另一個因素。

  • Joseph M. Busky - CFO

    Joseph M. Busky - CFO

  • And those are the factors, Casey, that gets you back to this high 20s margin.

    凱西,這些就是讓你回到 20 多歲的高利潤率的因素。

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • What's our confidence in the $100 million, I would say it's pretty good. We have gone through a diligence phase. We've gone through a business planning phase. We have at this point a plan that totals far greater than 300. And we assume that we should be able -- when looking at the initiatives, we should be able to ensure that we get at least 1/3 of them fully accomplished. That's what's in the number.

    我們對這1億美元有什麼信心,我覺得還是不錯的。我們已經經歷了盡職階段。我們已經經歷了業務規劃階段。目前我們的計劃總數遠遠超過 300 項。我們假設我們應該能夠——在考慮這些舉措時,我們應該能夠確保至少其中 1/3 完全完成。這就是數字中的內容。

  • Casey Rene Woodring - Research Analyst

    Casey Rene Woodring - Research Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe can you talk about North American nonrespiratory, it looks like the business slightly declined in 4Q. So curious on how the different business units performed relative to expectations? And maybe walk through your expectations by region for the year. You're lapping the China comp with the lockdown from last year. So just any color.

    知道了。這很有幫助。然後也許你可以談談北美非呼吸系統,看起來第四季度業務略有下降。對不同業務部門相對於預期的表現感到好奇嗎?也許還可以按地區列出您對今年的期望。你正在經歷去年封鎖後的中國比賽。所以任何顏色都可以。

  • Joseph M. Busky - CFO

    Joseph M. Busky - CFO

  • Yes. I think it's pretty flat, Casey, because if you're talking about nonrespiratory, most of that business is going to be the Triage and the former Beckman business. And that was pretty flat year-over-year fourth quarter.

    是的。我認為它非常平坦,凱西,因為如果你談論的是非呼吸系統,那麼大部分業務將是分診和前貝克曼業務。第四季與去年同期相比相當持平。

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • Does that actually address your question, Casey?

    這真的解決了你的問題嗎,凱西?

  • Casey Rene Woodring - Research Analyst

    Casey Rene Woodring - Research Analyst

  • Yes, that's helpful.

    是的,這很有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from the line of Jack Meehan with Nephron Research.

    下一個問題來自 Nephron Research 的 Jack Meehan。

  • Jack Meehan - Partner

    Jack Meehan - Partner

  • First is on the Transfusion Medicine business. So you announced some strategic decisions here. Just -- there were headlines in the fall around considering a sale. Just considering you've decided to exit U.S. donor screening and you're investing in immunohematology, is it safe to assume kind of a sale process is off the table at this point?

    首先是輸血醫學業務。所以你在這裡宣布了一些戰略決策。只是——秋天的頭條新聞都圍繞著考慮​​出售。考慮到您已決定退出美國捐贈者篩檢並且正在投資免疫血液學,是否可以假設此時不再考慮某種銷售流程?

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • We continue to evaluate all options, Jack. I think it's a great question. I just think when I look at it, you look at the time and effort to do a carve out on a business where we actually are the brand leader. There's a lot of value in that brand strength. When I look at the opportunity to potentially leverage that strength within the medium-sized hospital and help with our strategy, which is focused on the integrated platform. I felt like we would just be giving up too much. And I do think that there are measures that we can take to improve the efficiency in the business. And I do think that with a modest investment, we can continue to grow the menu. And so at this time, I don't think it's an asset that we would be willing to give up on so quickly.

    我們將繼續評估所有選項,傑克。我認為這是一個很好的問題。我只是認為,當我看到它時,你會看到我們為開拓一個我們實際上是品牌領導者的業務而付出的時間和精力。該品牌實力具有很大的價值。當我尋找潛在機會利用中型醫院的優勢並幫助我們實施專注於整合平台的策略。我覺得我們會放棄太多。我確實認為我們可以採取一些措施來提高業務效率。我確實認為,透過適度的投資,我們可以繼續擴大菜單。所以目前,我認為我們不會這麼快放棄它。

  • On the other hand, when you look at the U.S. donor screening business specifically, these are the larger factories, if you will. That business is in a market that's flat to declining, not expected to grow. It's a very expensive business to maintain. And by not being in that business over time, I think we get about 100 basis point improvement in our growth rate. And I think it helps our margins as well, our profile. So great question, Jack. Our IH business, the immunohematology part of it, I think is a valuable asset that we want to see if we can grow.

    另一方面,當你具體觀察美國的捐贈者篩選業務時,如果你願意的話,這些都是較大的工廠。該業務所在的市場持平甚至下降,預計不會成長。這是一項維護成本非常昂貴的業務。隨著時間的推移,如果不再涉足該業務,我認為我們的成長率會提高約 100 個基點。我認為這也有助於我們的利潤和我們的形象。這是一個很好的問題,傑克。我認為我們的 IH 業務(其中的免疫血液學部分)是一項寶貴的資產,我們希望看到它是否能夠發展。

  • Joseph M. Busky - CFO

    Joseph M. Busky - CFO

  • Yes. And Jack, just to add one point, in 2023 -- sorry. Sorry, Jack, I didn't mean to talk over you. But I just wanted to add that in 2023, if you were to exclude the donor screening business, our ex respiratory growth actually would have been 200 basis points higher. So it had a much bigger impact even in 2023.

    是的。傑克,我想補充一點,2023 年——抱歉。抱歉,傑克,我不是故意要談論你的。但我只是想補充一點,到 2023 年,如果排除捐贈者篩檢業務,我們的前呼吸道成長實際上會高出 200 個基點。所以即使在 2023 年,它的影響也更大。

  • Jack Meehan - Partner

    Jack Meehan - Partner

  • Got it. Makes sense. And then on Savanna, I just want to understand, I guess, like the gating factors to getting RVP4 approved. Is there any -- do you feel like you have all the trial activity you need done at this point? That's number one. And number two, when do you expect the CLIA waiver for Savanna? Does that come in conjunction with RVP4? Or do you think that's later in the year?

    知道了。說得通。然後在 Savanna,我想我只是想了解 RVP4 獲得批准的限制因素。您是否覺得此時已完成所需的所有試用活動?這是第一名。第二,您預計何時獲得 Savanna 的 CLIA 豁免?它與 RVP4 一起使用嗎?或者你認為那是今年晚些時候?

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • I'll go on reverse order. It's an appropriate question. The CLIA waiver is expected by year-end. The status of the submission of the 510(k) is on track for my previous comments. Recall that I had said that we expect to get clearance before the end of the first quarter. I think we're still on track for all that.

    我將按照相反的順序進行。這是一個恰當的問題。 CLIA 豁免預計在年底前完成。根據我先前的評論,510(k) 的提交狀態正常。回想一下,我曾說過,我們預計在第一季末之前獲得許可。我認為我們仍然在實現這一切的軌道上。

  • Jack Meehan - Partner

    Jack Meehan - Partner

  • Okay. And if I could squeeze in one final one, Joe, what does the guidance assume for growth in the China region for 2024?

    好的。喬,如果我能擠出最後一點,該指導對 2024 年中國地區的成長有何假設?

  • Joseph M. Busky - CFO

    Joseph M. Busky - CFO

  • Yes. The China region goes back to what we would define more as a normal high single-digit growth. If you go back to before the pandemic with the ortho business, it was high single-digit growth region. It gets back to that.

    是的。中國地區回到了我們所定義的正常的高個位數成長。如果你回到大流行之前的骨科業務,那是個位數的高成長區域。又回到了這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Conor McNamara with RBC.

    下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的康納·麥克納馬拉 (Conor McNamara)。

  • Conor Noel McNamara - Analyst

    Conor Noel McNamara - Analyst

  • I guess just -- the first question, in early January, you guys didn't preannounce which typically you have in early January. And given the size of the EBITDA guidance and miss relative to where folks have come out. Was there anything that -- first off, what was your decision not to preannounce, is there anything that's come up in the last month that kind of surprised you that you didn't know about in January start there?

    我想只是——第一個問題,在一月初,你們並沒有預先宣布一月初通常會發生什麼。考慮到 EBITDA 指引的規模和相對於人們的預期的偏差。有沒有什麼事情——首先,你決定不預先宣布什麼?上個月發生的事情有沒有讓你在一月份開始時不知道的事情讓你感到驚訝?

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thank you, Conor. The total revenue we knew, and we knew that we were going to be quite close in understanding that. The miss was about 6% or 7% of what we had projected. So we didn't feel like it was something that we could announce. And further to that, I didn't -- I knew for sure I wouldn't have all the answers to all the questions that we would have during the one-on-ones at the conference. And we certainly didn't know where we stood at that stage in terms of EBITDA. So I could have told you, obviously, that any gain or loss relative to the forecast with respiratory has a bigger impact, I knew that. But we really didn't have the specifics as we went into the conference. That's the only reason.

    是的。謝謝你,康納。我們知道總收入,我們知道我們將非常接近地理解這一點。未達預期的結果約為 6% 或 7%。所以我們覺得這不是我們可以宣布的事情。除此之外,我沒有——我確信我不會得到我們在會議一對一會議期間提出的所有問題的全部答案。我們當然不知道我們在那個階段的 EBITDA 處於什麼位置。所以我顯然可以告訴你,與呼吸系統預測相關的任何收益或損失都會產生更大的影響,我知道這一點。但當我們參加會議時,我們確實不知道具體細節。這是唯一的原因。

  • Conor Noel McNamara - Analyst

    Conor Noel McNamara - Analyst

  • Got it. I appreciate that. And then Joe, you talked about getting the high 20s EBITDA margins in fiscal '25. I mean is that for the full year? Or should we think about that as things ramp up through 2024 and then exiting 2025, you'll be there is -- assuming Savanna gets to a high respiratory number exiting '25? Or is that -- is it realistic to think that that's something that's achievable for all of fiscal '25?

    知道了。我很感激。然後喬,您談到在 25 財年實現 20 多歲的 EBITDA 利潤率。我的意思是全年都是這樣嗎?或者我們應該考慮一下,隨著 2024 年事情的發展,然後 2025 年結束,你會在那裡——假設薩凡納在 25 年結束時達到較高的呼吸次數?或者說,認為這是 25 財年所有財年都可以實現的目標是否現實?

  • Joseph M. Busky - CFO

    Joseph M. Busky - CFO

  • Yes. Conor, we'll talk more about this in detail at the Investor Day. But at this point, I would say, I do think it's for the full year 2025. We execute as the plan has been laid out...

    是的。康納,我們將在投資者日詳細討論這一點。但在這一點上,我想說,我確實認為這是 2025 年全年的事情。我們按照計劃執行…

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • And as I said, Conor, we're chasing a bigger number than the 100 needed in terms of cost synergy.

    正如我所說,Conor,就成本協同效應而言,我們正在追求比 100 個更多的數字。

  • Conor Noel McNamara - Analyst

    Conor Noel McNamara - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. And just -- sorry, last question, just housekeeping. On the decision to transfer out of the -- get out of the U.S. Transfusion business. What's -- can you quantify at all the revenue and EBITDA impact to that? And actually it sounds like you're going to reinvest the money, so maybe it's pretty dilutive to EBITDA, but is there any way to quantify the impact there?

    知道了。好的。抱歉,最後一個問題,只是客房服務。關於退出美國輸血業務的決定。您能量化對此帶來的所有收入和 EBITDA 影響嗎?實際上,聽起來你要把這筆錢再投資,所以也許它會稀釋 EBITDA,但有什麼方法可以量化那裡的影響嗎?

  • Joseph M. Busky - CFO

    Joseph M. Busky - CFO

  • Yes. The revenue -- we've said this, the revenue is about 25% of the total TM business. And the EBITDA margins are in the low single digits. So by exiting this business, it's going to be approved both top and bottom line.

    是的。收入-我們已經說過,收入約佔 TM 業務總量的 25%。 EBITDA 利潤率處於低個位數。因此,透過退出這項業務,它的營收和利潤都將得到批准。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from the line of Andrew Cooper with Raymond James.

    下一個問題來自安德魯·庫柏和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

  • Andrew Harris Cooper - Research Analyst

    Andrew Harris Cooper - Research Analyst

  • Maybe first, just following up on some of the margin dynamics, and this one is going to be a little bit backwards looking. But I guess thinking about respiratory revenues that ultimately came within the range you had provided for the full year, but EBITDA coming some 10% below the low end of the range, was the low end of the respiratory revenue not actually contemplated in that margin range? Or if so, why not, what were the offsets maybe you expected that you might have found that you didn't? Just help us think about the disconnect there between the top line and the prior guidance ranges?

    也許首先,只是跟進一些利潤動態,而這個會有點回顧過去。但我想,考慮到呼吸系統收入最終落在您為全年提供的範圍內,但 EBITDA 比該範圍低端低約 10%,呼吸系統收入的低端實際上並未在該利潤範圍內考慮?或者如果是這樣,為什麼不呢,你可能期望的抵消量是多少,但你可能發現你沒有?請幫我們考慮一下頂線與先前的指導範圍之間的脫節?

  • Joseph M. Busky - CFO

    Joseph M. Busky - CFO

  • Yes. Andrew, it's Joe. You may recall on the Q3 earnings call that I said that we needed to be at the high end of the flu range to hit our numbers that we were talking about on the bottom line. So $230 million to $270 million was the flu range. Doug's right, in the middle. We did $248 million, right? But we needed to be at the high end or even slightly above that range to hit our numbers, and we weren't. And in addition to that, there were some estimates on COVID that we came in below as well. And so the combination of those 2 things led to the miss.

    是的。安德魯,是喬。您可能還記得在第三季財報電話會議上,我說過我們需要處於流感範圍的高端才能達到我們在底線上討論的數字。因此,2.3 億至 2.7 億美元是流感範圍。道格是對的,在中間。我們做了 2.48 億美元,對嗎?但我們需要處於高端甚至略高於該範圍才能達到我們的目標,但我們沒有。除此之外,我們也對新冠病毒做了一些估計,如下。所以這兩件事的結合導致了失誤。

  • Andrew Harris Cooper - Research Analyst

    Andrew Harris Cooper - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then just on kind of the guide for '24. I appreciate the $40 million to $60 million flu as a volume number, the $200 million of COVID as a dollar number. Can you maybe just help us think about sort of apples to apples, whether it's unit volumes or dollars across that respiratory base? And then maybe also where combo fits in that math as you talk about it today. I know historically, it was in flu, but just want to make sure we sort of understand what the starting point assumptions are for kind of overall unit volume or dollars.

    好的。然後就是 24 世紀的指南。我欣賞價值 4000 萬至 6000 萬美元的流感作為一個數量數字,價值 2 億美元的新冠病毒作為一個美元數字。您能否幫助我們考慮一下同類問題,無論是呼吸基礎上的單位體積還是美元?也許還有你今天談論的數學中的組合。我知道歷史上有過流感,但只是想確保我們了解總體單位數量或美元的起點假設是什麼。

  • Joseph M. Busky - CFO

    Joseph M. Busky - CFO

  • Yes, it's a good question. I'm glad you asked because I did want to get through this. So first of all, just a clarification, and this has not changed, but the combo test for us is included in the flu numbers. And we've always included it in flu. It's not in the COVID numbers that we've talked about, the endemic numbers. And you will recall that if you look at the -- what we just put out, the '24 respiratory revenue guidance is $460 million to $730 million. So if you pull out an estimate for low-end of the range for COVID, you pull out an estimate for RSV and Strep that's consistent with 2023 and you pull out the $30 million to $50 million of Savanna.

    是的,這是一個好問題。我很高興你問這個問題,因為我確實想解決這個問題。首先,只是澄清一下,這一點沒有改變,但我們的組合測試已包含在流感數據中。我們一直將其包含在流感中。這不是我們談論的新冠病毒數字,而是流行病數字。您會記得,如果您查看我們剛剛發布的內容,24 年呼吸系統收入指引為 4.6 億至 7.3 億美元。因此,如果您提取出新冠病毒範圍低端的估計值,您就會提取出與 2023 年一致的 RSV 和鏈球菌感染估計值,並提取價值 3000 萬至 5000 萬美元的稀樹草原。

  • You're going to get a flu range that now is about $160 million to $360 million and that compares to the $230 million to $270 million that we gave for 2023. So we have -- in response to what happened in Q4, we are widening the range on the low and high end. So we don't miss. And we've included a realistic high end that is possible. And that's the 40 million to 60 million.

    現在流感範圍約為 1.6 億至 3.6 億美元,而我們為 2023 年提供的資金為 2.3 億至 2.7 億美元。因此,為了應對第四季度發生的情況,我們正在擴大範圍低端和高端的範圍。所以我們不會錯過。我們已經包含了可能的現實高端。這就是 4000 萬到 6000 萬。

  • And if you think about sort of historical where that 40 million to 50 million sits; in Q4 '23, it was a $50 million -- 50 million -- sorry, 50 million test market size market. And that compares to Q4 '22 is a 57 million size market. And so for '24, we've landed somewhere between, call it, 46 million to 50 million of test volume to get to -- when you think about like a midpoint of that range, that's a midpoint if you go between there, between the 40 million and the 60 million. So hopefully that helps you...

    如果你考慮一下歷史上這 4000 萬到 5000 萬的情況; 23 年第 4 季度,這是一個 5000 萬美元的市場——5000 萬美元——抱歉,測試市場規模為 5000 萬美元。與 22 年第四季相比,市場規模為 5,700 萬。因此,對於 24 年,我們已經達到了 4600 萬到 5000 萬測試量之間的某個位置——當你考慮這個範圍的中點時,如果你介於兩者之間,那就是一個中點4000萬和6000萬。所以希望這對你有幫助......

  • Andrew Harris Cooper - Research Analyst

    Andrew Harris Cooper - Research Analyst

  • It does.

    確實如此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from the line of Patrick Donnelly with Citi.

    下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Patrick Donnelly。

  • Patrick Bernard Donnelly - Senior Analyst

    Patrick Bernard Donnelly - Senior Analyst

  • Joe, maybe another one on the margins, just given exactly what you're talking about there on the respiratory and COVID piece, given that, that's going to be pretty impactful in terms of the cadence of the year, can you just help us think about the right way to kind of map out margins for the year, obviously, with the respiratory piece, being kind of on the barbell side of 1Q and 4Q? So I just want to get our heads around the margin piece as the year progresses here.

    喬,也許是邊緣的另一個人,只是考慮到您在呼吸和新冠肺炎方面所談論的內容,考慮到這將對今年的節奏產生相當大的影響,您能幫助我們思考一下嗎?顯然,關於繪製今年利潤的正確方法,呼吸部分位於第一季和第四季的槓鈴側?因此,隨著時間的推移,我只想讓我們了解邊緣部分。

  • Joseph M. Busky - CFO

    Joseph M. Busky - CFO

  • So that range -- that wide respiratory range, Patrick, is going to give you an EBITDA range of 21% to 24% as I noted. And as I just said to Andrew, I would probably recommend that we focus on the midpoint of that right now is a realistic place to start. It is going to give you gross margins in the range of high 40s. And again, I think I said this earlier, that the difference between what we were talking about prior to Q4 of gross margins in the low 50s and now high 40s is driven by the drop in that COVID revenue of roughly $200 million and the impact of Savanna and the launch and the dilutive impact there, that's about 400 basis points between these 2 items, with about 80% of that being the COVID drop and maybe 20% of that being Savanna drop for the Savanna dilution, I should say. But you're going to see as the quarter -- for the quarter that has rolled out, you're going to see the (inaudible). I was going to say for the quarters, you'll see the same normal cadence of Q1 and Q4 will be higher and Q2, Q3 will be slightly lower.

    因此,帕特里克,這個範圍——寬呼吸範圍將為您帶來 21% 到 24% 的 EBITDA 範圍,正如我所指出的。正如我剛才對安德魯所說,我可能會建議我們專注於現在的中點,這是一個現實的起點。它會給你帶來 40 多美元的毛利率。再說一遍,我想我之前說過,我們在第四季度之前討論的毛利率在 50 多歲和現在的 40 多歲之間存在差異,這是由於新冠疫情收入下降約 2 億美元以及我應該說,Savanna 和發布以及稀釋影響,這兩個項目之間大約有400 個基點,其中大約80% 是由於新冠病毒的下降,而其中20% 可能是由於Savanna 稀釋造成的Savanna 下降。但你會看到這個季度——對於已經推出的季度,你會看到(聽不清楚)。我想說的是,對於季度來說,你會看到 Q1 和 Q4 的正常節奏會更高,而 Q2、Q3 會稍低。

  • Patrick Bernard Donnelly - Senior Analyst

    Patrick Bernard Donnelly - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Understood. And then just on the LRP, I know you got a few questions. Is that something you guys are going to be reviewing in the next month into the Analyst Day? Or you kind of feel good about reiterating it today and then we'll kind of talk at the Analyst Day in more detail? I just want to make sure we're kind of getting the message correct. On the margin, that is, sorry.

    好的。明白了。關於 LRP,我知道你們有幾個問題。你們會在下個月的分析師日回顧這一點嗎?或者您覺得今天重申這一點感覺很好,然後我們將在分析師日進行更詳細的討論?我只是想確保我們所傳達的訊息是正確的。就邊緣而言,抱歉。

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • We're definitely going to go through more detail, yes. And so we're going to attempt to show on March 20, what the initiatives are, what we're working on, what the milestones are so that our investors can know that we're on track with what we say. I would get in terms of revenue margin, it would be over probably a 3-year window at this stage.

    是的,我們肯定會討論更多細節。因此,我們將嘗試在 3 月 20 日展示我們的舉措是什麼、我們正在做什麼、里程碑是什麼,以便我們的投資者知道我們正在按照我們所說的進行。就收入利潤率而言,現階段可能超過三年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Final question is from the line of John Sourbeer with UBS.

    最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的約翰·索爾比爾 (John Sourbeer)。

  • John Newton Sourbeer - Equity Research Associate

    John Newton Sourbeer - Equity Research Associate

  • Just on the Savanna launch, do you still think this has the potential for $250 million in revenues, 3 years post launch? Or how should we think about this over the long term?

    就 Savanna 的發布而言,您是否仍然認為它在發布 3 年後有可能帶來 2.5 億美元的收入?或者長遠來看我們應該如何思考這個問題?

  • Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

    Douglas C. Bryant - President, CEO & Director

  • I think that's true. I think you're -- you probably heard me comment earlier about the 1,000 placements, et cetera. I think we achieved what we set out to do in 2024, we'll have a really nice start to it. And so I don't really see that the $250 million will be something that will need to change the forecast that is.

    我認為這是真的。我想你——你可能之前聽過我對 1,000 個展示位置的評論,等等。我認為我們已經實現了 2024 年的目標,我們將有一個非常好的開始。因此,我並不認為 2.5 億美元需要改變現有的預測。

  • John Newton Sourbeer - Equity Research Associate

    John Newton Sourbeer - Equity Research Associate

  • Appreciate it. And then just a follow-up here on the clarifying thing. Just to confirm, you're still including the U.S. donor screening business. What's the impact in the guidance there? And just any color on when that would be actually found down?

    欣賞它。然後是關於澄清問題的後續行動。只是為了確認,您仍然包括美國捐贈者篩選業務。那裡的指導有什麼影響?以及什麼時候能真正找到它?

  • Joseph M. Busky - CFO

    Joseph M. Busky - CFO

  • Yes, it's a good question. It's in the guidance. And I think as Doug said earlier, if you were to pull it out, it's about 1 point impact -- favorable impact on nonrespiratory revenue. And there will be a favorable impact on EBITDA margin as well. We'll talk more about that on Investor Day, and we'll give a little more color.

    是的,這是一個好問題。指南裡有啊我認為,正如道格之前所說,如果你把它拔出來,大約會產生 1 點的影響——對非呼吸收入產生有利的影響。 EBITDA 利潤率也將產生有利影響。我們將在投資者日更多地討論這一點,並提供更多的色彩。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no additional questions waiting at this time. So that will conclude the conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

    目前沒有其他問題等待。電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。