PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to PayPal's fourth quarter and full year 2017 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Gabrielle Rabinovitch, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 PayPal 2017 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係主管 Gabrielle Rabinovitch 女士。請繼續。

Thank you, Sherie. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to PayPal Holdings earnings conference call for the fourth quarter and full year 2017. Joining me today on the call are Dan Schulman, our President and CEO; John Rainey, our Chief Financial Officer; and Bill Ready, our Chief Operating Officer.

謝謝你，謝麗。下午好，感謝您加入我們。歡迎參加 PayPal Holdings 2017 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Dan Schulman；約翰‧雷尼 (John Rainey)，我們的財務長；以及我們的營運長 Bill Ready。

We're providing a slide presentation to accompany our commentary. This conference call is also being webcast, and both the presentation and call are available through the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們將提供幻燈片演示來配合我們的評論。此次電話會議也進行了網路直播，您可以透過我們網站的投資者關係部分觀看演示和電話會議。

We will discuss some non-GAAP measures in talking about our company's performance. You can find a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the presentation accompanying this conference call.

我們將在談論我們公司的業績時討論一些非公認會計準則衡量標準。您可以在本次電話會議隨附的簡報中找到這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準的對帳。

In addition, management will make forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include our guidance for first quarter and full year 2018, and the expected impact of tax reform. Our actual results may differ materially from these statements.

此外，管理階層將根據我們目前的預期、預測和假設做出前瞻性陳述，並涉及風險和不確定性。這些聲明包括我們對 2018 年第一季和全年的指導，以及稅改的預期影響。我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。

You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC and available on the Investor Relations section of our website. You should not rely on any forward-looking statement. All information in this presentation is as of today's date, January 31, 2018. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update the information.

您可以在我們向SEC 提交的最新10-K 表格年度報告和10-Q 表格季度報告中找到有關風險、不確定性和其他可能影響我們業績的因素的更多信息，這些信息可在我們網站的投資人關係部分查看。您不應依賴任何前瞻性聲明。本簡報中的所有資訊均截至今天（2018 年 1 月 31 日）。我們明確表示不承擔任何更新資訊的義務。

With that, let me turn the call over to Dan.

接下來，讓我把電話轉給丹。

Thank you Gabrielle, and thanks everyone for joining us on today's call.

謝謝加布里埃爾，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

2017 was a transformative year for PayPal, with consistently strong and, in many cases, record-breaking results. I'd like to highlight a couple of areas in particular.

2017 年對 PayPal 來說是變革性的一年，其業績持續強勁，在許多情況下也打破了紀錄。我想特別強調幾個領域。

First, we achieved record net new actives and engagements on our core platform by increasing our reach and relevance with both consumers and merchants. Importantly, we anticipate this elevated level of net new actives to continue in 2018 as we experience increasing network effects from our scale.

首先，透過擴大我們與消費者和商家的影響力和相關性，我們在核心平台上實現了創紀錄的淨新活躍度和參與度。重要的是，隨著我們規模的網路效應不斷增強，我們預計 2018 年淨新活躍人數將繼續上升。

Second, we continue to grow our market share through our increasing leadership in mobile and by introducing a suite of new and innovative services and product experiences for our customers.

其次，我們透過不斷提高在行動領域的領先地位以及為客戶推出一系列創新服務和產品體驗來繼續擴大市場份額。

Third, we meaningfully strengthened our competitive positioning through the rollout of customer choice. The combination of customer choice and our move towards an open platform architecture enabled strategic partnerships with many of the world's leading companies. Several of these companies had previously been perceived as potential adversaries. These partnerships have opened new avenues of growth, from geographic expansion to in-store payments.

第三，我們透過推出客戶選擇有意義地增強了我們的競爭地位。客戶的選擇和我們向開放平台架構邁進的結合使我們能夠與許多世界領先的公司建立策略合作夥伴關係。其中幾家公司先前曾被視為潛在對手。這些合作關係開闢了新的成長途徑，從地理擴張到店內支付。

Fourth, we announced a new, long-term strategic partnership with Synchrony Financial, which will result in PayPal receiving more than $6 billion in cash proceeds at closing. The deal also frees up more than $1 billion in free cash flow each year, which we will allocate to higher-yielding organic and inorganic growth opportunities.

第四，我們宣布與 Synchrony Financial 建立新的長期策略合作夥伴關係，這將使 PayPal 在交易完成時獲得超過 60 億美元的現金收益。該交易每年還釋放超過 10 億美元的自由現金流，我們將把這些現金流分配給收益更高的有機和無機成長機會。

Finally, we did all this while delivering consistently strong financial results.

最後，我們在實現這一切的同時，也實現了持續強勁的財務表現。

I'll discuss the first 4 areas in more detail in a moment, but I want to start with our financial results for Q4. And I'm pleased to say that Q4 was our strongest quarter of the year, capping off a landmark 2017.

我稍後將更詳細地討論前 4 個領域，但我想從第四季度的財務表現開始。我很高興地說，第四季是我們今年表現最強勁的季度，為具有里程碑意義的 2017 年畫下圓滿的句點。

Payment volume grew 29% on a currency-neutral basis to $131.4 billion, generating revenue of $3.71 billion.

在剔除貨幣因素的基礎上，支付量成長了 29%，達到 1,314 億美元，創造了 37.1 億美元的收入。

Revenue grew by 24%, and this is our third consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth. The strong revenue performance, combined with disciplined OpEx management, drove non-GAAP EPS of $0.55, which was up 30% year-over-year.

營收成長了 24%，這是我們連續第三個季度營收加速成長。強勁的收入表現，加上嚴格的營運支出管理，推動非 GAAP 每股收益達到 0.55 美元，較去年同期成長 30%。

Our customer metrics were particularly strong. We drove a record 8.7 million (inaudible) active accounts...

我們的客戶指標特別強勁。我們創造了創紀錄的 870 萬（聽不清楚）活躍帳號...

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Ladies and gentlemen, please standby. Your conference will begin momentarily. Speakers, your line is now open.

女士們、先生們，請等候。您的會議即將開始。發言者，您的線路現已開通。

Okay. I'm back. I was in the middle of these exciting results and shocked even our speaker. So okay. So let me start off, just recapping our fourth quarter.

好的。我回來了。我正處於這些令人興奮的結果之中，甚至連我們的演講者都感到震驚。那麼好吧。讓我開始回顧一下我們的第四季。

As I mentioned, our payment volume was up 29% on a currency-neutral basis to $131.4 billion, generating revenue of $3.71 billion. Revenue grew by 24%, and this is our third consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth. This strong revenue performance, combined with disciplined OpEx management, drove our non-GAAP EPS to $0.55, up 30% year-over-year.

正如我所提到的，我們的支付量（不考慮貨幣因素）成長了 29%，達到 1,314 億美元，產生了 37.1 億美元的收入。營收成長了 24%，這是我們連續第三個季度營收加速成長。強勁的收入表現，加上嚴格的營運支出管理，使我們的非 GAAP 每股收益達到 0.55 美元，年增 30%。

Our customer metrics were particularly strong. We drove a record 8.7 million net new active accounts, and that was up 61% over Q4 of 2016. And we ended the year with 227 million active accounts, adding more than 29 million net new actives for the year. And it's worth noting that we now serve 18 million merchants on our platform.

我們的客戶指標特別強勁。我們的淨新活躍帳戶數量達到了創紀錄的870 萬個，比2016 年第四季度增長了61%。年底，我們的活躍帳戶數量達到了2.27 億個，全年淨新活躍帳戶數量增加了超過2900 萬個。值得注意的是，我們的平台現在為 1800 萬商家提供服務。

Importantly, engagement was once again higher at 33.6 transactions per active account. And I think it's instructive to note that our accelerating net new active growth hides the true underlying growth of engagement. If our total net new adds had grown at the same rate as last year, our growth and engagement would have increased 11% to approximately 34.5. It's particularly encouraging that our net new active cohorts acquired in 2017 are showing an acceleration in engagement versus similar cohorts from 2016. The net takeaway is we're bringing on record net new actives with higher engagement than ever before, and that obviously bodes well as we look ahead.

重要的是，參與度再次上升至每個活躍帳戶 33.6 筆交易。我認為值得注意的是，我們不斷加速的新活躍淨成長掩蓋了參與度的真正潛在成長。如果我們的淨新增總數以與去年相同的速度成長，我們的成長率和參與度將增加 11% 至約 34.5。特別令人鼓舞的是，我們在2017 年獲得的淨新活躍群組與2016 年的類似群組相比，其參與度有所提高。淨結果是，我們帶來了創紀錄的淨新活躍群組，其參與度比以往任何時候都更高，這顯然是個好兆頭我們展望未來。

Our partnership with Synchrony Financial accomplishes every goal we set out for our asset-light strategy. The transaction substantially reduces our overall risk profile, it provides us the opportunity to double down on our innovative credit experiences for our merchants and our consumers while sharing in the profit growth. And as I said earlier, it frees up approximately $1 billion in annualized cash flows and more than $6 billion in cash.

我們與 Synchrony Financial 的合作實現了我們為輕資產策略設定的每一個目標。這項交易大大降低了我們的整體風險狀況，為我們提供了為商家和消費者加倍提供創新信貸體驗的機會，同時分享利潤成長。正如我之前所說，它釋放了大約 10 億美元的年化現金流和超過 60 億美元的現金。

If we combine this cash windfall with the ability to repatriate these funds due to the recently passed tax reform bill, we dramatically increase the flexibility of our cash position, enabling us to more efficiently allocate our capital to higher-yielding opportunities.

如果我們將這筆意外之財與最近通過的稅收改革法案所帶來的匯回這些資金的能力結合起來，我們將大大提高現金頭寸的靈活性，使我們能夠更有效地將資本配置到收益更高的機會上。

John will be sharing more details later in the call about the strategic benefits of our Synchrony partnership, and will discuss the impact of the Synchrony transaction on our Q4 results and our expectations for 2018.

John 將在稍後的電話會議中分享有關 Synchrony 合作夥伴關係的戰略優勢的更多詳細信息，並將討論 Synchrony 交易對我們第四季度業績的影響以及我們對 2018 年的預期。

This past year saw strength in our leadership position in digital payments, and we substantially expanded our opportunities for future growth. We introduced a host of new product experiences, and they're driving further differentiation from our competitors.

在過去的一年裡，我們在數位支付領域的領導地位得到了加強，並且我們大大擴展了未來成長的機會。我們推出了一系列新產品體驗，它們正在推動我們與競爭對手的進一步差異化。

Customer choice is central to this effort and continues to be an important element in the evolution of PayPal. In the fourth quarter, we completed the rollout of choice in the United States, the U.K., Australia, Canada and Japan, with 30 million consumers now opted in. In the United States, where choice has been live to site for more than 12 months, we continue to see a meaningful lift in engagement and payment volume and a significant reduction in churn. And consistent with previous quarters, our transaction expenses remain well within our expectations, as evidenced by our increasing OI margins.

客戶的選擇是這項工作的核心，並且仍然是 PayPal 發展的重要因素。第四季度，我們在美國、英國、澳洲、加拿大和日本完成了 choice 的推出，目前已有 3,000 萬消費者選擇加入。在美國，choice 的上線時間已超過 12 個月，我們繼續看到參與度和支付量顯著提升，且客戶流失率顯著減少。與前幾季一樣，我們的交易費用仍然在我們的預期之內，我們不斷增加的 OI 利潤率就證明了這一點。

Across the globe, contact rates into our customer service centers continue to decline. In fact, in the fourth quarter of this year, we experienced lower overall call volumes into our customer service centers than we did in Q4 2014, despite our base increasing by 65 million active accounts and literally billions of additional transactions. I attribute our reduction in call volume to not only choice, but to the tremendous strides Bill and his team have made in enhancing our core experiences, from improved availability, to decreased latency, to increased feature, functionality and reduced friction across our platform.

在全球範圍內，我們客戶服務中心的聯絡率持續下降。事實上，今年第四季度，儘管我們的活躍帳戶增加了6,500 萬個，而且新增交易量達到數十億美元，但與2014 年第四季相比，我們的客戶服務中心的整體呼叫量有所下降。我將通話量的減少不僅歸因於選擇，還歸因於比爾和他的團隊在增強我們的核心體驗方面取得的巨大進步，從提高可用性到減少延遲，再到增加特性、功能和減少整個平台的摩擦。

This quarter was particularly significant in the number of new and notable large merchants who joined the PayPal platform. Merchants are increasingly choosing PayPal for our ability to deliver the tools they need to compete and thrive in an increasingly competitive global and mobile environment. If you combine that with the value of the 209 million engaged consumers we bring to their omnichannels, you can see why we have such a strong and compelling value proposition for merchants.

本季加入 PayPal 平台的新的知名大型商家數量尤其顯著。商家越來越多地選擇 PayPal，因為我們能夠提供他們在競爭日益激烈的全球和行動環境中競爭和發展所需的工具。如果您將其與我們為全通路帶來的 2.09 億活躍消費者的價值結合起來，您就會明白為什麼我們為商家提供瞭如此強大且引人注目的價值主張。

This quarter, we signed a global agreement with the Walt Disney Company; we welcomed Dillards, which ranks among the nation's largest fashion retailers; QVC has agreed to make PayPal available to their customers. And the QVC group is the #3 in e-commerce in North America, and #3 in mobile commerce in the U.S., according to Internet Retailer. In Europe, ePRICE, which is the largest Italian marketplace, began accepting PayPal payments; and Dell began offering PayPal Credit in the U.K. In India, PayPal is available as a way to pay on BookMyShow and MakeMyTrip, the largest online entertainment ticketing platform and the largest online travel company in the country.

本季度，我們與華特迪士尼公司簽署了全球協議；我們迎來了 Dillards，它是美國最大的時尚零售商之一； QVC 已同意向其客戶提供 PayPal。根據 Internet Retailer 的數據，QVC 集團在北美電子商務領域排名第三，在美國行動商務領域排名第三。在歐洲，義大利最大的市場 ePRICE 開始接受 PayPal 付款；戴爾開始在英國提供 PayPal 信用。在印度，PayPal 可作為 BookMyShow 和 MakeMyTrip 的付款方式，後者是該國最大的線上娛樂票務平台和最大的線上旅遊公司。

This holiday season clearly demonstrated the powerful trends that are reshaping retail and driving new consumer behaviors, driven by the increasing penetration of smartphones. These trends drove strong mobile engagement on our platform over the busy holiday shopping season. PayPal processed $48 billion in mobile payment volume in the fourth quarter, and that was a 53% growth year-over-year and 36% of our quarterly TPV. For the full year, mobile represented 34% of overall payment volume on our platform, with total mobile payment volume growing 52% to $155 billion for the year.

這個假期季節清楚地展示了在智慧型手機普及率不斷提高的推動下，正在重塑零售業並推動新的消費者行為的強大趨勢。這些趨勢在繁忙的假期購物季推動了我們平台上的強勁行動參與度。 PayPal 在第四季度處理了 480 億美元的行動支付額，年增 53%，占我們季度 TPV 的 36%。全年，行動支付占我們平台支付總量的 34%，全年行動支付總額成長 52%，達到 1,550 億美元。

Our leadership in mobile continues to be driven by the exceptional experiences we're able to deliver. We continue to drive fast, frictionless and engaging consumer experiences with our One Touch product. We ended the fourth quarter with over 80 million consumers opted into One Touch, up from 40 million a year ago. And a number of merchants offering One Touch now totals more than 8 million compared with 5 million a year ago.

我們能夠提供的卓越體驗繼續推動我們在行動領域的領先地位。我們持續透過 One Touch 產品推動快速、順暢且引人入勝的消費者體驗。截至第四季末，有超過 8,000 萬消費者選擇使用 One Touch，高於一年前的 4,000 萬。目前，提供One Touch的商家總數已超過800萬，而一年前為500萬。

Venmo continues to define digital payments for a generation of passionate users here in the U.S. For the first time in a quarter, Venmo surpassed $10 billion in payment volume, with $10.4 billion processed in Q4, an increase of 86% year-over-year. For the full year, Venmo's volume increased 97%, with almost $35 billion in payment volume processed. We also experienced another very strong quarter of net new adds to Venmo, and added the largest cohort of annual net new actives to Venmo in its history. We continued our rollout of Pay with Venmo, providing our Venmo users with more ways to pay with the service they love, and giving our merchants access to this coveted demographic.

Venmo 繼續為美國一代熱情的用戶定義數位支付。第四季度，Venmo 的支付額首次突破 100 億美元，處理額為 104 億美元，年增 86%。全年，Venmo 的交易量增加了 97%，處理的支付金額接近 350 億美元。我們還經歷了 Venmo 另一個非常強勁的季度淨新增人數，並為 Venmo 增加了其歷史上最大的年度淨新增活躍人數。我們繼續推出 Pay with Venmo，為我們的 Venmo 用戶提供更多方式使用他們喜愛的服務進行支付，並讓我們的商家能夠接觸到這一令人垂涎的人群。

While we are still in the early stages of modernization, we are very encouraged by our initial leads on engagement. In fact, the adoption of services that we are able to monetize on Venmo is tracking above the P2P adoption Venmo experienced at a similar point in its history. Given our experience this past year, we believe our future opportunities are expansive and compelling. We are riding powerful and accelerating tailwinds created by 2 global trends, the digitization of cash and the mass adoption of mobile devices. We are actively positioning ourselves to take full advantage of these trends and strategically moving our business into areas where we believe these transformations are creating the strongest opportunities.

雖然我們仍處於現代化的早期階段，但我們對參與的初步領先優勢感到非常鼓舞。事實上，我們能夠在 Venmo 上貨幣化的服務的採用率高於 Venmo 在其歷史上類似時刻經歷的 P2P 採用率。鑑於我們過去一年的經驗，我們相信未來的機會是廣闊且引人注目的。我們正乘著現金數位化和行動裝置大規模採用這兩個全球趨勢帶來的強勁且加速的順風車。我們正在積極定位自己，以充分利用這些趨勢，並策略性地將我們的業務轉移到我們認為這些轉型正在創造最強機會的領域。

Throughout 2017, we redefined our competitive position in our ecosystem, entering into strategic partnerships with many of the companies leading the digital mobile transformation around the world. We are now in the process of implementing productive and expansive partnerships with Visa, Mastercard, Discover, Bank of America and China UnionPay. We are working closely with over 20 of the largest credit card issuers in the world, the majority of which have kicked off campaigns to encourage and, in many cases, incent customers to engage with PayPal. For example, we are working with both Citi and FIS to create experiences that are driving enhanced consumer engagement and activation. With Citi, customers can provision their Citi cards to new or existing PayPal accounts directly from Citi's online properties. With FIS, the ability to link accounts directly to PayPal is now available to all of FIS' banking customers.

2017 年，我們重新定義了我們在生態系統中的競爭地位，與全球許多引領數位行動轉型的公司建立了策略合作夥伴關係。我們目前正在與 Visa、Mastercard、Discover、美國銀行和中國銀聯建立富有成效和廣泛的合作夥伴關係。我們正在與全球 20 多家最大的信用卡發卡機構密切合作，其中大多數發卡機構已啟動活動，鼓勵並在許多情況下激勵客戶使用 PayPal。例如，我們正在與花旗銀行和 FIS 合作，打造可提高消費者參與度和活化度的體驗。透過花旗銀行，客戶可以直接從花旗銀行的線上資產將其花旗銀行卡提供給新的或現有的 PayPal 帳戶。透過 FIS，FIS 的所有銀行客戶現在都可以將帳戶直接連結到 PayPal。

We signed an agreement with Bank of America to enable PayPal as a way to disburse payments on behalf of their corporate clients. And this year, we will integrate credit card reward points from major issuers into our PayPal Wallet as a funding source for consumers to use when they purchase at PayPal merchants. And we will also begin to roll out the use of industry-standard tokens to pay in-store, wherever NFC is accepted.

我們與美國銀行簽署了一項協議，允許 PayPal 作為代表其企業客戶支付款項的方式。今年，我們將把主要發卡機構的信用卡獎勵積分整合到我們的 PayPal 錢包中，作為消費者在 PayPal 商家購物時使用的資金來源。我們也將開始在接受 NFC 的地方開始使用業界標準代幣進行店內支付。

In the quarter, we expanded our partnership with Facebook Messenger, adding contextual commerce experience that allows sellers send invoices to buyers as well as adding PayPal as a way to fund P2P transactions within Messenger conversations.

本季度，我們擴大了與 Facebook Messenger 的合作夥伴關係，增加了上下文商務體驗，允許賣家向買家發送發票，並添加 PayPal 作為在 Messenger 對話中為 P2P 交易提供資金的方式。

In China, where mobile payments are a thriving part of everyday life, our relationships with strategic partners have the potential to substantially increase our opportunity. PayPal is now used by tens of thousands of Chinese merchants on the AliExpress website in order to transact seamlessly with PayPal consumers outside of China. We are also eagerly looking forward to the upcoming launch of our Baidu partnership.

在中國，行動支付已成為日常生活的一部分，我們與策略合作夥伴的關係有可能大幅增加我們的機會。目前，全球速賣通網站上數以萬計的中國商家都在使用 PayPal，以便與中國境外的 PayPal 消費者進行無縫交易。我們也熱切期待即將推出的百度合作關係。

In November, we announced the launch of our domestic operations in India, opening another substantial market for PayPal. While we have been supporting India merchants for years by helping them sell to international buyers, we are now able to work with key merchants to sell domestically as well. We plan to aggressively expand this program to more merchants in India throughout 2018. India is a market in which the government is actively working towards demonetization and building a modern, digital economy, and we view India as a strong and compelling opportunity for PayPal.

11 月，我們宣佈在印度開展國內業務，為 PayPal 開闢了另一個重要市場。雖然我們多年來一直透過幫助印度商人向國際買家銷售產品來支持他們，但我們現在也能夠與主要商人合作在國內銷售。我們計劃在2018 年積極將該計劃推廣到更多印度商家。印度是一個政府正在積極致力於廢除紙幣並建立現代數位經濟的市場，我們認為印度對PayPal 來說是一個強大而引人注目的機會。

With well more than 1 billion digital consumers and a thriving online merchant community, deepening our engagement in China and India will continue to be a priority for PayPal in 2018, and we believe these markets offer significant opportunities to drive substantial scale.

PayPal 擁有超過 10 億的數位消費者和蓬勃發展的線上商家社區，深化與中國和印度的合作將繼續成為 PayPal 2018 年的首要任務，我們相信這些市場提供了推動規模擴大的重要機會。

I'd also like to comment on our relationship with eBay. We have a very close partnership and a long history with eBay. This is governed by an operating agreement that runs for another 2.5 years through July 2020. The operating agreement lays out a thoughtful transition and allows for a smooth migration from jointly owned entities to independent companies for the 5 years following separation. The agreement allows for eBay to eventually become merchant of record and play a more direct role in managing the payment experience on their platform, and we are actively partnering with eBay to help their implementation of merchant of record capabilities. The operating agreement also allows for eBay to work with alternate payment service providers over time as they transition to merchant of record. As part of that, I'm very pleased to announce that PayPal and eBay have signed a term sheet to provide our branded services at least through July 2023.

我也想評論一下我們與 eBay 的關係。我們與 eBay 有著非常密切的合作夥伴關係和悠久的歷史。這是由一份營運協議管轄，該協議有效期為 2.5 年，截至 2020 年 7 月。該營運協議規定了周密的過渡，並允許在分立後的 5 年內從合資實體順利遷移到獨立公司。該協議使 eBay 最終成為記錄商家，並在管理其平台上的支付體驗方面發揮更直接的作用，我們正在積極與 eBay 合作，幫助他們實施記錄商家功能。此營運協議還允許 eBay 在過渡到記錄商家的過程中與其他支付服務提供者合作。作為其中的一部分，我非常高興地宣布 PayPal 和 eBay 已簽署一份條款清單，至少在 2023 年 7 月之前提供我們的品牌服務。

Both our 2018 and our medium-term guidance already include the anticipated economic impact of the eBay transition, which is quite manageable over a multiyear period. As such, we see no need to change our medium-term guidance. Given our long history with eBay buyers and sellers, both Devin Wenig and I believe a manageable transition and sustained relationship is in the best interest of our mutual customers. I'm very pleased we have agreed to extend our partnership and look forward to building on a strong relationship we've established since separation.

我們的 2018 年和中期指引都已經包括了 eBay 轉型的預期經濟影響，這種影響在多年內是相當可控的。因此，我們認為沒有必要改變我們的中期指導。鑑於我們與 eBay 買家和賣家的悠久歷史，德文·韋尼格 (Devin Wenig) 和我都相信，可控的過渡和持續的關係符合我們共同客戶的最佳利益。我很高興我們同意延長我們的合作夥伴關係，並期待在我們分居後建立的牢固關係的基礎上繼續發展。

As I've said at the beginning of my remarks, 2017 was a landmark year for PayPal on multiple fronts. We enter 2018 with strong and accelerating trends, supporting our increasingly differentiated and expansive value proposition and scale. We have extended our branded PayPal relationship with eBay through July 2023, which was one of our primary goals in 2017. These accomplishments set us up for sustainable and predictable growth over the foreseeable future. We fully understand the need to work even harder to live up to and deliver on the value our customers and shareholders expect from us. We have a substantial opportunity to shape the future of digital payments over the next decade, and we are looking forward to another strong year in 2018.

正如我在演講開頭所說，2017 年對於 PayPal 來說在多個方面都是里程碑意義的一年。進入 2018 年，我們的趨勢強勁且加速，這支持了我們日益差異化和廣泛的價值主張和規模。我們已將 PayPal 與 eBay 的品牌合作關係延長至 2023 年 7 月，這是我們 2017 年的主要目標之一。這些成就為我們在可預見的未來實現可持續和可預測的成長奠定了基礎。我們完全理解需要更加努力工作，以實現並實現客戶和股東對我們的期望。我們有很大的機會在未來十年塑造數位支付的未來，我們期待 2018 年又一個強勁的一年。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to John.

然後，我會將電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Dan. I also want to thank all of PayPal's customers, partners and employees for making 2017 a great year. We achieved many significant milestones in 2017, and are well positioned to continue delivering on our commitments and executing against our strategic plans.

謝謝，丹。我還要感謝 PayPal 的所有客戶、合作夥伴和員工，感謝他們讓 2017 年成為美好的一年。 2017 年，我們實現了許多重要的里程碑，並有能力繼續履行我們的承諾並執行我們的策略計劃。

Before I go into details of the fourth quarter, I'd like to provide a few highlights for the full year. For 2017, active accounts grew 15% to 227 million, an acceleration of 500 basis points over the 2016 growth rate. Payment volume grew 27% on a currency-neutral basis to $451 billion, approximately 34% of this volume was mobile, where we saw 52% volume growth for the year. Revenue for 2017 exceeded $13 billion, growing 21% on a currency-neutral basis. For the full year, revenue related to eBay Marketplaces grew 7%, while our merchant services revenue grew 24%, more than 3x the rate of our legacy eBay Marketplaces business. For the year, non-GAAP earnings per share grew 27% to $1.90, and we returned more than $1 billion to shareholders.

在詳細介紹第四季之前，我想先介紹一下全年的一些亮點。 2017 年，活躍帳戶成長 15%，達到 2.27 億，比 2016 年成長率成長 500 個基點。在不考慮貨幣因素的基礎上，支付量增加了 27%，達到 4,510 億美元，其中約 34% 是行動支付，我們看到今年的支付量增加了 52%。 2017 年營收超過 130 億美元，在匯率中立的基礎上成長 21%。全年，與 eBay Marketplaces 相關的收入成長了 7%，而我們的商家服務收入成長了 24%，是我們傳統 eBay Marketplaces 業務成長率的 3 倍以上。今年，非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長 27% 至 1.90 美元，我們向股東返還超過 10 億美元。

I'd first like to discuss the impact of tax reform. We believe the modernization of the U.S. tax code is a significant step forward and a clear positive for PayPal and its shareholders. The ability to more efficiently and strategically allocate capital is an unmitigated benefit, the full value of which we expect to realize over the medium and long term. I would note that there's still a number of open items that require clarification, and we may refine our estimated impact in future quarters as further information and interpretations become available.

我首先想談談稅制改革的影響。我們認為，美國稅法的現代化是向前邁出的重要一步，對 PayPal 及其股東來說是明顯的正面影響。更有效、更具策略性地配置資本的能力是一項無可比擬的優勢，我們期望在中長期內實現其全部價值。我要指出的是，仍有許多懸而未決的項目需要澄清，隨著進一步的資訊和解釋的出現，我們可能會在未來幾季完善我們的估計影響。

Our fourth quarter GAAP results include a one-time charge of $180 million related to the deemed repatriation of unremitted earnings on foreign subsidiaries and a revaluation of deferred tax assets and liabilities. We expect our non-GAAP effective tax rate to be in the range of 17% to 20% over the next 3 years. We will tighten this range as we get more clarity.

我們第四季的 GAAP 業績包括一筆 1.8 億美元的一次性費用，涉及海外子公司未匯出收益的視為匯回以及遞延稅資產和負債的重估。我們預計未來 3 年我們的非 GAAP 有效稅率將在 17% 至 20% 之間。當我們變得更加清楚時，我們將收緊這個範圍。

I'd now like to review the items included in non-GAAP results from the reclassification of our U.S. consumer credit receivables portfolio to held for sale relating to our November agreement with Synchrony Financial. These changes reduce comparability to prior periods. Where relevant to the discussion, I'll provide normalized results to adjust for these changes. Following the closing of the transaction, which we expect to occur in the third quarter, the U.S. consumer credit portfolio will no longer sit on our balance sheet and we will no longer incur any costs related to the charge-off of principal or interest.

我現在想回顧一下根據我們 11 月與 Synchrony Financial 達成的協議將我們的美國消費者信貸應收帳款組合重新分類為持有待售的非 GAAP 結果中包含的項目。這些變化降低了與前期的可比性。在與討論相關的情況下，我將提供標準化結果以適應這些變化。我們預計交易將於第三季完成，交易完成後，美國消費信貸投資組合將不再出現在我們的資產負債表上，我們將不再承擔與沖銷本金或利息相關的任何成本。

First, other value-added services revenue benefited by approximately $26 million in the quarter as a result of no longer recognizing reserves on interest receivables for the U.S. consumer credit portfolio. Second, transaction and loan losses benefited by approximately $74 million from no longer recognizing reserves on principal receivables for the U.S. consumer credit portfolio. And third, non-transaction-related expenses were negatively impacted by $92 million from the recognition of incurred charge-offs of principal and interest. There's also a GAAP earnings impact from the transaction consistent with our prior disclosures related to the agreement, and those are noted in the investor update posted today.

首先，由於不再確認美國消費信貸投資組合的應收利息準備金，其他增值服務收入在本季增加了約 2,600 萬美元。其次，由於不再確認美國消費信貸組合本金應收款準備金，交易和貸款損失受益於約 7,400 萬美元。第三，由於確認已發生的本金和利息沖銷，非交易相關費用受到 9,200 萬美元的負面影響。該交易也對 GAAP 收益產生影響，這與我們先前披露的與該協議相關的資訊一致，這些影響在今天發布的投資者更新中也有所體現。

Moving to our results. For the fourth quarter, our total payment volume was $131 billion, up 32% on a spot basis and 29% on a currency-neutral basis. Merchant services volume grew 33% on a currency-neutral basis to $114 billion, representing 87% of our volume in the quarter. Volume associated with eBay represented 13% of the total compared to 16% for the fourth quarter of 2016, and 19% 2 years ago. P2P volume, which is a component of merchant services, and includes volumes across core, Venmo and Xoom, grew 50% to $27 billion, and represented approximately 20% of total payment volume.

轉向我們的結果。第四季度，我們的總支付額為 1,310 億美元，以即期計算成長 32%，以貨幣中性計算成長 29%。在不考慮貨幣因素的基礎上，商家服務量成長了 33%，達到 1,140 億美元，佔本季業務量的 87%。與 eBay 相關的交易量佔總量的 13%，而 2016 年第四季為 16%，兩年前為 19%。 P2P 交易量是商業服務的一部分，包括核心、Venmo 和 Xoom 的交易量，成長了 50%，達到 270 億美元，約佔總支付量的 20%。

During the fourth quarter, growth in active accounts was 15%. We ended the quarter with 227 million customer accounts. We added 8.7 million active accounts in the quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter where we have experienced an acceleration in the growth of active accounts. And in each of the last 5 quarters, we have added a record number of net new customer accounts. Account growth in the quarter was primarily driven by our core PayPal business, followed by strong growth in Venmo accounts.

第四季活躍帳戶成長 15%。本季結束時，我們的客戶帳戶數量為 2.27 億。本季我們新增了 870 萬個活躍帳戶。這標誌著我們連續第四個季度活躍帳戶成長加速。在過去 5 個季度中，我們的淨新客戶帳戶數量均創歷史新高。本季的帳戶成長主要由我們的核心 PayPal 業務推動，其次是 Venmo 帳戶的強勁成長。

Revenue grew 24% on a spot basis in Q4, with 23% growth in transaction revenue and 32% growth in other value-added services. Transaction revenue growth was primarily driven by our core PayPal and Braintree businesses. Normalizing for the effect of held-for-sale accounting, revenue growth from other value-added services was driven by strong credit growth on the consumer side as well as the acquisition of Swift Financial. Both total and transaction take rates are affected by our hedging program, as we recognize hedge gains and losses in international transaction revenue.

第四季營收年增 24%，其中交易收入成長 23%，其他增值服務成長 32%。交易收入成長主要由我們的核心 PayPal 和 Braintree 業務推動。考慮到持有待售會計的影響，其他增值服務的收入成長是由消費者信貸強勁成長以及收購 Swift Financial 推動的。總費用和交易費用都受到我們的對沖計劃的影響，因為我們在國際交易收入中確認對沖收益和損失。

In the fourth quarter, we incurred a hedging loss of $29 million compared to a $50 million gain in Q4 of 2016, resulting in a $79 million headwind in the period.

第四季度，我們的對沖損失為 2,900 萬美元，而 2016 年第四季的對沖損失為 5,000 萬美元，導致該期間出現 7,900 萬美元的逆風。

For the fourth quarter, our transaction take rate was 2.45%, a decline of 18 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2016. And our total take rate was 2.82%, also down 18 basis points year-over-year.

第四季度，我們的交易成交率為2.45%，比2016年第四季下降了18個基點。我們的總成交率為2.82%，也比去年同期下降了18個基點。

Growth in our P2P businesses led by Venmo and the impact from the hedging loss resulted in approximately 2/3 of the take rate decline, with the remaining 5 basis point decline resulting from the business mix effect of lower eBay growth, in conjunction with strong Braintree growth.

由 Venmo 帶動的 P2P 業務增長以及對沖損失的影響導致約 2/3 的接受率下降，其餘 5 個基點的下降是由於 eBay 增長放緩的業務組合效應以及強勁的 Braintree 造成的生長。

Volume-based expenses grew 26% in Q4. Normalizing for the effect of held-for-sale accounting, these expenses would have grown in line with volume growth. Transaction expense was $1.3 billion, and represented 96 basis points of TPV, consistent with the expense rate in Q4 2016 and our expectation that we would see less pressure in the back half of 2017 relative to the first half of the year. Increased core PayPal funding expenses were offset by lower funding cost from growth in P2P.

第四季基於數量的支出成長了 26%。考慮到持有待售會計的影響，這些費用將隨著銷量的增長而增長。交易費用為 13 億美元，佔 TPV 的 96 個基點，與 2016 年第四季的費用率一致，我們預計 2017 年下半年的壓力將小於上半年。 PayPal 核心融資支出的增加被 P2P 成長帶來的融資成本降低所抵銷。

Transaction loss in the quarter was $248 million or 19 basis points of TPV, flat to the same period last year as well as Q3 2017. Loan losses were $75 million, down nearly 40% from the fourth quarter of 2016 as a result of the effect of held-for-sale accounting on the income statement. We estimate that this change in accounting designation benefited loan losses by approximately $74 million. Due to the change to held-for-sale accounting, we no longer maintain the reserve for losses and are reflecting incurred losses on the line item called restructuring and other charges on our income statement as part of our non-transaction-related expenses. Our consumer credit portfolio continues to perform in line with our expectations.

本季交易損失為 2.48 億美元，相當於 TPV 的 19 個基點，與去年同期和 2017 年第三季持平。受此影響，貸款損失為 7,500 萬美元，較 2016 年第四季下降近 40%損益表中的持有待售會計。我們估計會計名稱的這項變更使貸款損失減少了約 7,400 萬美元。由於持有待售會計的變化，我們不再保留損失準備金，並將所發生的損失反映在損益表中稱為重組和其他費用的行項目中，作為我們的非交易相關費用的一部分。我們的消費信貸投資組合的表現持續符合我們的預期。

Transaction margin in dollars was $2.1 billion, growing 23%. Adjusted for the impact of held-for-sale accounting, transaction margin was $2 billion, representing 17% growth versus last year. This represents the highest rate of growth since separation. For the quarter, transaction margin as a rate was 57.1%. On an adjusted basis, transaction margin was 54.8%.

以美元計算的交易利潤為 21 億美元，成長 23%。根據持有待售會計的影響進行調整後，交易利潤為 20 億美元，比去年增長 17%。這是分離以來的最高成長率。本季的交易利潤率為 57.1%。經調整後，交易利潤率為54.8%。

Non-transaction-related expenses or other operating expenses grew 19% in the quarter. Normalizing for the held-for-sale accounting adjustments, these non-transaction-related expenses would have grown approximately 10.5%, resulting in 385 basis points of operating leverage. Further adjusting for the acquisitions of Swift Financial and TIO Networks, we would have seen non-transaction-related expenses grow at approximately 6% for the quarter.

本季非交易相關費用或其他營運費用增加了 19%。如果持有待售會計調整正常化，這些非交易相關費用將增加約 10.5%，導致營運槓桿增加 385 個基點。進一步調整 Swift Financial 和 TIO Networks 的收購，我們預計本季非交易相關費用將成長約 6%。

Relative to Q4 '16, in fourth quarter this year, sales and marketing expenses grew 25%; product development costs increased 10%; and customer support and operations cost grew 7%, consistent with the cadence of discretionary spending that we have previously discussed. In the quarter, there were incremental costs related to our acquisitions of Swift Financial and TIO, which affected the growth of both sales and marketing and customer support costs. In addition, we launched marketing campaigns for our P2P businesses in support of the global launch of our choice initiative. And in product development, we invested in our India domestic payments business, Pay with Venmo, and in improving our core merchant and consumer experiences.

相較於 16 年第四季度，今年第四季的銷售和行銷費用成長了 25%；產品開發成本增加10%；客戶支援和營運成本成長了 7%，與我們之前討論的可自由支配支出的節奏一致。本季度，我們收購 Swift Financial 和 TIO 帶來了增量成本，影響了銷售和行銷以及客戶支援成本的成長。此外，我們還針對 P2P 業務發起了行銷活動，以支持我們選擇計劃的全球推出。在產品開發方面，我們投資了印度國內支付業務 Pay with Venmo，並改善了我們的核心商家和消費者體驗。

After adjusting for held-for-sale accounting treatment, non-transaction-related expenses increased $0.17 in Q4 for every incremental dollar of revenue. After backing out incremental revenue and cost associated with our acquisitions of Swift Financial and TIO, these expenses increased only $0.11 for every incremental dollar of revenue. And for the full year, these expenses increased only $0.10 for every dollar increase in revenue, indicative of the underlying leverage and scalability inherent in our operating model.

在持有待售會計處理進行調整後，第四季每增加一美元收入，非交易相關費用就會增加 0.17 美元。在扣除與收購 Swift Financial 和 TIO 相關的增量收入和成本後，每增加 1 美元的收入，這些費用僅增加 0.11 美元。全年來看，收入每增加 1 美元，這些費用僅增加 0.10 美元，這表明我們營運模式固有的槓桿率和可擴展性。

In the fourth quarter, operating income grew 30% to $807 million on 24% top line growth, resulting in 100 basis points of operating leverage.

第四季，營業收入成長 30%，達到 8.07 億美元，營收成長 24%，營運槓桿增加 100 個基點。

Non-GAAP earnings per share grew 30% in the fourth quarter to $0.55. Q4 capital expense -- expenditures were $108 million (sic) [$180 million] or approximately 5% of revenue. As a result of changes from the designation of our U.S. consumer credit receivables portfolio, net new loans of $1.3 billion reduced cash flow from operations in the quarter. Prior to this change in designation, this amount would have been recognized in cash flows from investing activities. As a result, cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter was negative $147 million, with free cash flow in the quarter of negative $327 million. On a normalized basis, we would have recognized approximately $972 million in free cash flow, generating approximately $0.26 free cash flow for every dollar of revenue.

第四季非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長 30%，達到 0.55 美元。第四季資本支出－支出為 1.08 億美元（原文如此）[1.8 億美元]，約佔營收的 5%。由於我們美國消費信貸應收帳款投資組合的指定發生變化，本季新增貸款淨額減少了 13 億美元，減少了營運現金流。在名稱變更之前，這筆金額將在投資活動的現金流量中確認。因此，第四季營運現金流為負 1.47 億美元，該季度自由現金流為負 3.27 億美元。在正常化的基礎上，我們將確認約 9.72 億美元的自由現金流，每 1 美元的收入產生約 0.26 美元的自由現金流。

We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $7.7 billion. In 2017, we returned $1 billion to shareholders in the form of stock repurchases, buying back our stock at an average price of $51. Our business generates significant free cash flow. In addition, tax reform, in conjunction with the expected proceeds from the Synchrony transaction and its implications for our go forward cash requirements, position PayPal with meaningful liquidity, flexibility and optionality as it relates to capital allocation decisions. We expect to continue to deploy disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation to preserve this flexibility and make strategic investments to deliver durable increases in shareholder value and long-term growth.

本季結束時，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資為 77 億美元。 2017年，我們以股票回購的形式向股東返還了10億美元，平均價格為51美元。我們的業務產生大量的自由現金流。此外，稅收改革，結合 Synchrony 交易的預期收益及其對我們未來現金需求的影響，使 PayPal 在與資本分配決策相關時具有有意義的流動性、靈活性和選擇性。我們預計將繼續採用嚴格和平衡的資本配置方法，以保持這種靈活性，並進行策略性投資，以實現股東價值和長期成長的持久成長。

In 2018, we plan to continue investing organically, pursue acquisitions and partnerships and increase our level of stock repurchases. We are currently executing on tax planning strategies to serve our long-term business objectives. Consequences of these strategies, in conjunction with regional regulatory and liquidity requirements, may affect our cash repatriation plans. We continue to move toward a more optimal capital structure to support capital allocation decisions and maximize value. In the fourth quarter, we announced a new $3 billion unsecured credit facility and drew down $1 billion at the end of December.

2018年，我們計劃繼續有機投資，尋求收購和合作夥伴關係，並提高股票回購水準。我們目前正在執行稅務規劃策略，以服務我們的長期業務目標。這些策略的後果，再加上區域監管和流動性要求，可能會影響我們的現金匯回計畫。我們繼續朝著更優化的資本結構邁進，以支持資本配置決策並實現價值最大化。第四季度，我們宣布了一項新的 30 億美元無擔保信貸安排，並於 12 月底提取了 10 億美元。

I would now like to discuss our guidance for the first quarter of 2018 and the full year. For the full year 2018, we expect revenue between $15 billion and $15.25 billion, representing currency-neutral growth of 14% to 16%. This is in line with the guidance update we provided in mid-January and incorporates the expected impact of approximately 3.5 points from the sale of our U.S. consumer receivables. Our guidance contemplates modest expansion in our non-GAAP operating margin in 2018, and we anticipate our non-GAAP effective tax rate to be between 17% and 20%. And we expect non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.24 to $2.30.

我現在想討論一下我們對 2018 年第一季和全年的指導。我們預計 2018 年全年營收將在 150 億美元至 152.5 億美元之間，扣除貨幣因素後將成長 14% 至 16%。這與我們 1 月中旬提供的指導更新一致，並納入了出售美國消費者應收帳款帶來的約 3.5 個百分點的預期影響。我們的指引預計 2018 年我們的非 GAAP 營業利潤率將小幅擴張，我們預計我們的非 GAAP 有效稅率將在 17% 至 20% 之間。我們預計非 GAAP 每股收益為 2.24 美元至 2.30 美元。

For 2018, we anticipate free cash flow to exceed $4.5 billion. This is higher than normal due to the sale of our credit receivables next year. The proceeds of which will be split between operating and investing activities on our cash flow statement.

2018 年，我們預計自由現金流將超過 45 億美元。由於明年我們將出售信用應收帳款，這數字高於正常水準。其收益將在我們的現金流量表上分為經營活動和投資活動。

For the first quarter, we expect revenue in the range of $3.58 billion to $3.63 billion, or 20% to 21% growth on a currency-neutral basis. We also expect non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.52 to $0.54.

我們預計第一季營收將在 35.8 億美元至 36.3 億美元之間，即在匯率中立的基礎上成長 20% 至 21%。我們也預期非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.52 至 0.54 美元。

In closing, we are pleased with 2017 and the progress we've made across many fronts. We focused our efforts on building great experiences for our customers, which led to a record consumer and merchant adds to our platform and an acceleration of revenue and earnings growth. We demonstrated sustainable improvements to our cost structure and significantly de-risked our business with the U.S. consumer credit transaction with Synchrony. We look forward to the opportunities we have in 2018 to continue this progress and further increase shareholder value.

最後，我們對 2017 年以及我們在許多方面取得的進展感到滿意。我們致力於為客戶打造出色的體驗，這使得我們平台上的消費者和商家數量創歷史新高，並加速了收入和獲利成長。我們展示了成本結構的可持續改進，並透過與 Synchrony 進行的美國消費信貸交易顯著降低了我們的業務風險。我們期待 2018 年有機會繼續這項進展並進一步增加股東價值。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for questions. Thank you.

這樣，我會將其轉交給接線員詢問。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Heath Terry with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Heath Terry。

Dan, John, there seems to bit of a disconnect between the way that eBay is presenting the new partnership or extension versus the way that it's coming across on this call and the press release, primarily, the difference being the Adyen partnership that -- or Adyen partnership that eBay is talking about as being their primary partner now and that they intend to transition the majority of their marketplace customers to this new payment experience that Adyen is powering. Can you help clarify for us a little bit for -- of how -- basically try and connect the dots between those 2. And I know you've talked about there not being any sort of meaningful financial impact here as we get to the end of the original 2020 date. How does that change?

丹、約翰，eBay 介紹新合作夥伴關係或延期的方式與本次電話會議和新聞稿中的方式似乎有些脫節，主要區別在於 Adyen 合作夥伴關係——或者eBay 現在將Adyen 合作夥伴視為他們的主要合作夥伴，他們打算將大多數市場客戶轉變為Adyen 提供的這種新支付體驗。您能否幫我們澄清一下，基本上是嘗試將這兩者之間的點聯繫起來。我知道您已經談到，當我們走到最後時，這裡不會產生任何有意義的財務影響原來的2020年日期。這有何變化？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Heath. So I'd start off with just saying that eBay and PayPal have had a close relationship and a long history together. And I'm really pleased that we're extending that partnership on the branded side through July 2023. As I think most people on the call know, there's a 5-year operating agreement that governs our separation, and we're halfway through that, we've got another 2.5 years left until the end of July 2020. And with this announcement here, there are no changes to any of the terms. And the operating agreement was meant to assure both a thoughtful and a smooth transition for both companies post separation. And it assumed in the operating agreement as have we, that eBay will gradually transition to become an MOR. And consequently, all of our numbers, all of our plans have always included that assumption. So as we've given our medium-term guidance, that's been part of our assumption. And as a result, this announcement does not change our medium-term guidance or the way that we think about our long-term outlook. And let me give you some facts around that because we strongly believe that the eBay transition to MOR is quite manageable for us, so why do we think that? So today, eBay, as John mentioned, is about 13% of our TPV, our total process volume -- transaction process volume, and that's down about 900 basis points in the last 2.5 years. So let's just assume that exactly the same thing happens over the next 2.5 years, and that we have no acquisitions ourselves, which, by the way, as you know, we are acquisitive, we're aggressive on that, we have a large cash balance that's coming to us, so we can talk about acquisitions later, but that will be a part of our strategy going forward. But assuming no acquisition, eBay becomes approximately, at the end of the operating agreement, about 4% of our TPV. That's assuming, again, the same amount, first 2.5 years with the second 2.5 years, and they do less than 10% of our revenues. If eBay follows the example, and we actually have the great insight because we actually see what happens to marketplaces as they go to MOR because we've worked with a number of marketplaces. And where marketplaces go to MOR, it typically takes them several years before the majority of their customers move to MOR. And we've seen this -- and we've experienced -- and post-MOR, post-MOR, we still retain about a 50% share of checkout. And so it takes several years post the end of the OA for the majority of customers to move. That's what our experience has been in the real market. And post that, we retain about 50% share of checkout. So we think that this is going to be a very manageable transition over multiple years, post the end of the OA. And I give you 2 more thoughts on this, and it's very important. One, we renewed the branded relationship with eBay because it is far and away the most profitable element of the relationship. And two, it's the most important to our mutual customers. And three, it also happens to be the largest part of the business, by far and away, today. [Being part of] branded processing is highly undifferentiated, it's commoditized. And as a result, it yields little to no profit. And as we go through this, we're going to be able to shed substantial cost because we aren't going to be doing that unbranded piece of it. We'll still maintain the branded, we'll still maintain the most profitable part of this business and what is, today, the largest part. But there's one other really important element. The OA, the operating agreement, also restricts PayPal from partnering with the largest and fastest growing marketplaces in the world as an MOR. So if we had simply done an extension of the full operating agreement, that would've kept that prohibition in place and prevented us from becoming a fully neutral third-party platform. And the opportunity to partner with the world's largest marketplaces is immense. Today, the top 10 marketplaces that we're allowed to fully service generate tens and tens and tens of billions of dollars of TPV, growing at 56% year-over-year. And this is just a fraction of what it could be. So if you sum it all up for us, one, we always assume MOR. It's in our guidance, it's in our plans. Two, we think this is going to be a very manageable transition over multiple years. Three, it opens up very large and very real opportunities for us to work with the largest next-generation marketplaces, post the OA. And so all in, this was the best possible outcome for PayPal. We're now well positioned to continue our strong growth, both on the top line and the bottom line, as we look ahead. And so we feel good about where all this has come out. We've looked at it very, very carefully. It's always been in our plans, and we feel good now that we have certainty on the direction that we're going.

是的。謝謝你的提問，希斯。因此，我首先要說的是，eBay 和 PayPal 有著密切的關係，並且有著悠久的歷史。我真的很高興我們將品牌方面的合作關係延長至2023 年7 月。我想大多數參加電話會議的人都知道，有一項為期5 年的營運協議來管理我們的分離，而我們已經完成了一半，到 2020 年 7 月底為止，我們還有 2.5 年的時間。在此宣布此消息後，任何條款都沒有變化。這項營運協議旨在確保兩家公司在分拆後能夠進行深思熟慮且平穩的過渡。與我們一樣，在營運協議中假設 eBay 將逐漸轉型為 MOR。因此，我們所有的數字、我們所有的計劃都始終包含這個假設。因此，正如我們給出的中期指導一樣，這是我們假設的一部分。因此，這項公告不會改變我們的中期指導或我們思考長期前景的方式。讓我為您提供一些相關事實，因為我們堅信 eBay 向 MOR 的過渡對我們來說是完全可以管理的，那麼我們為什麼這麼認為呢？因此，正如 John 所提到的，如今 eBay 約占我們 TPV（我們的總處理量——交易處理量）的 13%，在過去 2.5 年裡下降了約 900 個基點。因此，我們假設在未來 2.5 年中會發生完全相同的事情，並且我們自己沒有收購，順便說一句，如您所知，我們很積極收購，我們對此很積極，我們擁有大量現金我們即將實現平衡，因此我們可以稍後討論收購，但這將是我們未來策略的一部分。但假設不進行收購，在營運協議結束時，eBay 約占我們 TPV 的 4% 左右。再次假設，前 2.5 年和後 2.5 年的金額相同，他們的收入不到我們收入的 10%。如果 eBay 效仿這個例子，我們實際上有很好的洞察力，因為我們實際上看到了市場進入 MOR 時會發生什麼，因為我們已經與許多市場合作過。當市場轉向 MOR 時，通常需要幾年時間才能讓大多數客戶轉向 MOR。我們已經看到了這一點——我們也經歷過——在 MOR 之後，MOR 之後，我們仍然保留了大約 50% 的結帳份額。因此，OA 結束後，大多數客戶需要幾年時間才能遷移。這就是我們在實際市場中的經驗。發布後，我們保留了大約 50% 的結帳份額。因此，我們認為，在 OA 結束後，這將是一個非常易於管理的多年過渡。我對此還有兩個想法，這非常重要。第一，我們更新了與 eBay 的品牌關係，因為它無疑是這種關係中最有利可圖的元素。第二，這對我們共同的客戶來說是最重要的。第三，迄今為止，它也恰好是業務中最大的一部分。 [成為]品牌加工的一部分是高度無差異化的，它是商品化的。結果，它幾乎沒有產生任何利潤。當我們經歷這個過程時，我們將能夠削減大量成本，因為我們不會做那些沒有品牌的部分。我們仍然會保留品牌，我們仍然會保留這項業務中最賺錢的部分，也是今天最大的部分。但還有另一個非常重要的因素。 OA（營運協議）也限制 PayPal 作為 MOR 與世界上最大且成長最快的市場合作。因此，如果我們只是延長了完整的營運協議，那麼禁令就會繼續存在，並阻止我們成為完全中立的第三方平台。與世界上最大的市場合作的機會是巨大的。如今，我們獲準提供全面服務的前 10 個市場產生了數百億美元的 TPV，年增 56%。這只是它可能實現的一小部分。因此，如果你為我們總結一下，第一，我們總是假設 MOR。它在我們的指導中，在我們的計劃中。第二，我們認為這將是一個多年來非常容易管理的過渡。第三，它為我們在 OA 之後與最大的下一代市場合作提供了非常大且非常真實的機會。總而言之，這對 PayPal 來說是最好的結果。展望未來，我們現在處於有利地位，可以在營收和利潤上繼續強勁成長。因此，我們對這一切的結果感到滿意。我們非常非常仔細地研究過它。這一直在我們的計劃中，現在我們感覺很好，因為我們對前進的方向有了確定性。

Our next question comes from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的布萊恩·基恩。

I just wanted to follow up on that. Just trying to understand, my understanding is, in 2020, that's when you guys will no longer be the MOR. And then, just thinking about going forward then, my understanding is PayPal will still be a button of choice but it just won't process some of the card payments. And just trying to figure out the economics, what that exactly means when you don't become the MOR, and how that impacts the P&L?

我只是想跟進此事。只是想了解一下，我的理解是，到 2020 年，你們將不再是 MOR。然後，考慮接下來的發展，我的理解是 PayPal 仍然是一個選擇按鈕，但它只是不會處理一些卡片付款。只是想弄清楚經濟學，當你不成為 MOR 時，這到底意味著什麼，以及這對損益有何影響？

Yes. It's a great question. One of the things to understand is as we work with many other retailers out there, they are merchants of record as we work with them. And as we are able to go command even a premium relative to card processing because we deliver greater customer acquisition, higher conversion rates, all those things, we're doing that across much of our business with the merchants or marketplace on the site functioning as a merchant of record. So as Dan was commenting on earlier, we have quite a lot of insight into exactly how this plays out, and that led to us being able to fully contemplate that as we have laid our future plan and have been doing those since separation because we know how that works as other marketplace and other small business forums have either moved to merchant of record or started merchant of record, with PayPal still as a predominant way of paying inside of those marketplaces or small business forums.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。需要理解的一件事是，當我們與許多其他零售商合作時，他們是我們合作時的記錄商家。由於我們能夠獲得比卡處理更高的溢價，因為我們提供了更多的客戶獲取、更高的轉換率以及所有這些東西，我們在我們的大部分業務中都在與網站上的商家或市場一起這樣做有記錄的商人因此，正如丹早些時候評論的那樣，我們對這件事的具體結果有很多見解，這使我們能夠充分考慮​​這一點，因為我們已經制定了未來的計劃，並在分手後一直在做這些事情，因為我們知道這是如何運作的，因為其他市場和其他小型企業論壇已經轉移到記錄商家或開始記錄商家，而 PayPal 仍然是這些市場或小型企業論壇內部的主要支付方式。

Bryan, this is John. I would add to that maybe that, I think, what you're getting to is sort of the economic impact overall and there's a couple of things I'd point you to. First is, as Dan suggested in his prepared remarks, that our -- in terms of their percentage of our business, it's declined 900 basis points over the last couple of years. And during that period, we've actually been able to keep margins flat to growing, right? And if you look at the 10 quarters that we've had since separation, the average revenue growth of those quarters for our eBay part of our business has been 4%. If you look at the other 87% of our business, that has grown 23%. So if you -- history is not necessarily -- you can't project that forward, but if you were to just take those numbers and project them through to mid-2020, at the end of this operating agreement, that would suggest that in 2021, our revenue growth each year is roughly 50% larger than the entirety of the eBay business at that point in time. And so the other thing I'd point to is that we actually incur quite a bit of cost to support eBay today. So when we look at things like our losses or our call volume into our ops center, those disproportionately skew towards eBay relative to their percentage of the TPV. So we feel very confident that we can continue this trajectory going forward. And there's nothing about what's been announced today that changes our thoughts on our ability to continue to grow our top line and bottom line after the operating agreement.

布萊恩，這是約翰。我想補充一點，我認為，您所得到的可能是整體經濟影響，我想向您指出一些事情。首先，正如丹在他準備好的演講中所暗示的那樣，就他們在我們業務中所佔的百分比而言，在過去幾年中下降了 900 個基點。在此期間，我們實際上能夠保持利潤率持平甚至成長，對嗎？如果你看看我們分拆後的 10 個季度，我們的 eBay 業務部分的平均營收成長率為 4%。如果你看看我們其他 87% 的業務，你會發現成長了 23%。因此，如果你——歷史不一定——你無法預測這一點，但如果你只是把這些數字預測到 2020 年中期，即本營運協議結束時，那就表明到2021 年，我們每年的收入成長將比當時eBay 業務的整體成長約50%。我要指出的另一件事是，我們今天實際上為支援 eBay 付出了相當大的成本。因此，當我們查看損失或營運中心的呼叫量等情況時，會發現，相對於 eBay 在 TPV 中所佔的比例，這些因素不成比例地偏向 eBay。因此，我們非常有信心能夠繼續沿著這條軌跡前進。今天宣布的內容並沒有改變我們對在營運協議簽訂後繼續成長營收和利潤的能力的看法。

Our next question comes from Tien-tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天欽。

Just a couple of follow-up questions to that. Just not sure if you can share how much of your profits come from eBay today, but is your ability and your confidence to maintain your midterm guidance, does it require any sort of unusual mediation efforts like cost cutting or share repurchase? I get the organic cost cutting or savings from the change. But just curious if it requires any extra remediation efforts or even the assumption of new marketplace wins? And if I could just tack on one more, is it fair to think that your checkout share, the 50% number is helpful, but is it fair to think that your checkout share would be higher longer term here just because of how integrated you've been with eBay after all these years? Sorry for all the questions.

只是幾個後續問題。只是不確定您是否可以分享您今天有多少利潤來自 eBay，但您是否有能力和信心維持中期指導，是否需要任何不尋常的調解努力，例如成本削減或股票回購？我從變革中獲得了有機成本削減或節省。但只是好奇是否需要任何額外的補救措施，甚至假設新的市場獲勝？如果我可以再補充一個，可以公平地認為您的結帳份額（50% 的數字是有幫助的），但認為您的結帳份額從長遠來看會更高，只是因為您的整合程度較高，這是公平的嗎？這麼多年了，你還在 eBay 工作嗎？抱歉有這些問題。

Sure. Tien-tsin, I'll start. The assumption that we have going forward about this is that we will continue to realize the benefits from our scale and our leverage going forward. And so this does not require massive restructuring or layoffs to continue to achieve the kind of performance that we've seen. As I suggested, we've been doing this for 2 years. And we would expect, as we continue to grow other parts of our business, that we can continue to generate this kind of leverage. I'd point you back to the fact that half of our cost base this year only grow at $0.10 for every incremental dollar. Now to the other part of your question, does that assume like anything in terms of acquisitions or anything like that? It does not. And so when we think about the -- if you go back to my answer to Bryan's question and you think about losing some share of that business going forward, we're talking about a few points of impact to revenue growth and profitability. That is -- and that can easily be backfilled going out and looking at inorganic opportunities. And this doesn't also address the fact that with the operating agreement ending in mid-2020, we now have the ability to go out and partner with the largest marketplaces in the world, largest and fastest-growing marketplaces in the world. All of this gives us an opportunity to backfill any kind of gap that we might have had as we transition to this next chapter with eBay.

當然。田津，我先開始了。我們對此的假設是，我們將繼續實現我們的規模和槓桿作用所帶來的好處。因此，這不需要大規模重組或裁員來繼續實現我們所看到的表現。正如我所建議的，我們已經這樣做了兩年。我們預計，隨著我們業務其他部分的不斷發展，我們能夠繼續產生這種槓桿作用。我想提醒您注意這樣一個事實：今年我們的成本基數每增加 1 美元，僅增加 0.10 美元。現在到你問題的另一部分，這是否假設收購或類似的事情？它不是。因此，當我們思考時，如果你回到我對布萊恩問題的回答，並且考慮未來失去部分業務份額，我們正在討論對收入增長和盈利能力的幾個影響點。那就是——而且可以很容易地彌補出去尋找無機機會。這也沒有解決這樣一個事實：隨著營運協議於 2020 年中期結束，我們現在有能力走出去，與世界上最大的市場、世界上最大且成長最快的市場合作。所有這一切都讓我們有機會填補 eBay 進入下一個篇章時可能存在的任何空白。

Yes. And I'd just also say that our guidance assumes this. So what that means is that we knew that this was going to happen and that the guidance that we've been giving and the medium-term guidance that we put out there has assumed this happening. So that means that we've built into our models, costs and things that we know we can target and take out, revenues that we can target. So this is not anything that we haven't covered in all of our modeling and all of our plans. Otherwise, we wouldn't have been giving that medium-term guidance. This isn't a surprise. This is exactly what we assumed. It was contemplated in the operating agreement. And consequently, when I think about the experiences we've had, where eBay will be at the end of the operating agreement, this multiyear transition and our place as a branded checkout solution, I feel like this will be one of these events that will -- that, obviously, we'll have to move through it, but it will be one that's quite manageable for us going forward.

是的。我還要說的是，我們的指南假設了這一點。因此，這意味著我們知道這種情況將會發生，我們一直在提供的指導和我們發布的中期指導已經假設這種情況會發生。因此，這意味著我們已經將我們知道可以瞄準的成本和事物納入我們的模型中，並取出了我們可以瞄準的收入。因此，這並不是我們在所有建模和所有計劃中未涵蓋的內容。否則，我們就不會給出中期指導。這並不奇怪。這正是我們的假設。運營協議中對此進行了考慮。因此，當我想到我們所經歷的、eBay 將在運營協議結束時所處的位置、這一多年的過渡以及我們作為品牌結帳解決方案的地位時，我覺得這將是這些事件之一， -顯然，我們必須克服它，但這對我們來說是非常容易管理的。

And one other thing I'd add, Tien-tsin, you talked about wins in the marketplaces, things like that, as Dan alluded to earlier, and as you know, we're a primary payment platform for many of the best next-gen marketplaces in the world already, Uber, Airbnb and many others, but as Dan alluded to, not only that, many tens of billions of dollars of volume for us and growing at 50%-plus year-on-year already, the growth in that business, as we think about our other large marketplaces, the growth we see on an absolute basis is already outpacing the growth we see from eBay. So just the way that we're already engaging with all marketplaces outpaces the growth that we see from eBay. And as we're able to contemplate engaging there in an unfettered way, we think there's a lot more opportunity ahead for us there. You touched on one other point around share of checkout about being over-penetrated given our long historical relationship and -- we don't disclose specifics about the share of checkout there with -- certainly, it's reasonable to expect that if we see 50% approximately with other small business forums, one where we've been ably embedded over time would be a place where we, yes, are going to be strongly preferred. And as you've seen in our consumer base, our engagement is going up consistently across our consumer base. So your point there about our share of checkout, we tend to see it as consumers are using PayPal, they're becoming more engaged with us over time, not less. And so their preference for PayPal is increasing. And so we think that is -- bodes well for us across any marketplace we work with. And certainly, the big part of the branded deals we've done with eBay, and why that's important to both us and eBay, is the continuity of how a significant portion of their buyers have been choosing to purchase on eBay for a very long time and likely will continue to into the future.

我要補充的另一件事是，Tien-tsin，您談到了市場上的勝利，諸如此類的事情，正如Dan 之前提到的那樣，正如您所知，我們是許多最好的下一代的主要支付平台 - Uber、Airbnb 和許多其他市場已經在全球範圍內出現，但正如 Dan 所提到的，不僅如此，我們的交易量已經達到數百億美元，並且同比增長超過 50%，在該業務中，當我們考慮其他大型市場時，我們看到的絕對成長速度已經超過了eBay 的成長速度。因此，我們與所有市場的互動方式已經超過了 eBay 的成長速度。由於我們能夠考慮以不受約束的方式參與其中，因此我們認為那裡有更多的機會。鑑於我們長期的歷史關係，您談到了關於結帳份額的另一點，即過度滲透——我們不會透露結帳份額的具體情況——當然，如果我們看到 50%，那麼可以合理地預期大約與其他小型企業論壇一樣，隨著時間的推移，我們巧妙地融入了一個論壇，是的，我們將成為一個強烈首選的地方。正如您在我們的消費者群中看到的那樣，我們的參與度在整個消費者群中持續上升。因此，您對我們結帳份額的觀點，我們傾向於將其視為消費者使用 PayPal，隨著時間的推移，他們與我們的互動越來越多，而不是更少。因此，他們對 PayPal 的偏好正在增加。因此，我們認為這對我們合作的任何市場來說都是一個好兆頭。當然，我們與 eBay 達成的品牌交易的很大一部分，以及為什麼這對我們和 eBay 都很重要，是很大一部分買家長期以來選擇在 eBay 上購買的連續性並且很可能會持續到未來。

Our next question comes from Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

Just on that point on these other partnerships that you could have with marketplaces, how many discussions have you had with some of the larger ones that are opportunities? And how significant, economically, could those be relative to sort of what you have with eBay? And then, maybe just thinking about the transaction cost element of being a lesser merchant for the networks, does that have any impact to your interchange expenses?

就這一點而言，關於您可以與市場建立的其他合作夥伴關係，您與一些較大的機會進行了多少次討論？與您在 eBay 所擁有的東西相比，這些在經濟上有多重要？然後，也許只是考慮成為網路中較小的商家的交易成本因素，這對您的交換費用有任何影響嗎？

We've just had conversations with other marketplaces. As part of the operating agreement, we're prohibited from offering MOR services to -- I won't name it, to the largest and fastest growing marketplaces out there that are really directly competitive with eBay. That was part of the operating agreement. Obviously, each of them have spoken with us, we've spoken to them, but they all know that we are respecting the terms of the operating agreement because that's what eBay does as well. And so I do believe that those conversations are quite sincere, and they all do want to think about how they can work with us. But until we get closer to the end of the OA, that's when we'll be able to give you a more up-to-date information. Everything else to this point is confidential.

我們剛剛與其他市場進行了對話。作為營運協議的一部分，我們被禁止向與 eBay 真正直接競爭的最大且成長最快的市場提供 MOR 服務，我不會透露具體名稱。這是營運協議的一部分。顯然，他們每個人都與我們交談過，我們也與他們交談過，但他們都知道我們尊重營運協議的條款，因為 eBay 也是這樣做的。所以我確實相信這些對話是非常真誠的，他們都想考慮如何與我們合作。但在 OA 即將結束之前，我們將能夠為您提供更多最新資訊。到目前為止，其他一切都是保密的。

Our next question comes from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福賽特。

I wanted to ask at least a qualitative -- additional qualitative follow-up question on eBay. And I'm just wondering, how we should think about what -- maybe you had to agree to give or give up in terms of being able to secure the extra years of presence as checkout on eBay and make sure that you would have a presence there through 2023. And I guess, as part of that, I'm curious, like why agree to whatever now instead of waiting to see if there were some additional services that PayPal could deliver to eBay to improve your positioning and long-term relationship there?

我想在 eBay 上至少問一個定性的附加定性後續問題。我只是想知道，我們應該如何考慮 - 也許您必須同意放棄或放棄，才能確保在 eBay 上結帳時能夠獲得額外的存在年限，並確保您能夠存在一直到2023 年。我想，作為其中的一部分，我很好奇，為什麼現在就同意，而不是等著看PayPal 是否可以向eBay 提供一些額外的服務，以改善您的定位和長期關係在那裡？

Well, James, we thought that within the OA, this year coming up was the first year that permitted eBay to experiment with MOR capabilities. It's laid out in the operating agreement that they can choose 2 countries and do up to 5% of the volume on an MOR solution. So it was the right time. And we've always thought that we would never do all these negotiations at the very end. We both feel like we're going to be partners for a long time. And we looked carefully at all parts of this deal, both the unbranded and the branded. And we felt that the unbranded piece of this was not something that made sense for us. One, because we felt the most profitable part of the business was on the branded side, and it's the largest part of the business today. And number two, we in no way wanted to be restricted post the OA in terms of our ability to work with the largest marketplaces out around the globe. So for us, we really -- we felt like we didn't give everything up. (inaudible) do this now. It was a natural extension. It was important to eBay. It was important to us that we both signal that we're going to be very close partners going forward. Do you want to add, John?

好吧，詹姆斯，我們認為在 OA 範圍內，即將到來的今年是允許 eBay 嘗試 MOR 功能的第一年。營運協議中規定，他們可以選擇 2 個國家，並在 MOR 解決方案上完成最多 5% 的工作量。所以現在正是時候。我們一直認為我們永遠不會在最後進行所有這些談判。我們都覺得我們將成為很長一段時間的合作夥伴。我們仔細研究了這筆交易的所有部分，包括非品牌的和品牌的。我們覺得這個無品牌的部分對我們來說沒有意義。第一，因為我們認為業務中最賺錢的部分是品牌方面，而且它是當今業務中最大的部分。第二，在 OA 之後，我們絕不希望在與全球最大市場合作的能力方面受到限制。所以對我們來說，我們真的覺得我們並沒有放棄一切。 （聽不清楚）現在就這樣做。這是一個自然的延伸。這對 eBay 很重要。對我們來說很重要的是，我們雙方都發出信號，表明我們將成為未來非常密切的合作夥伴。約翰，你想補充嗎？

Yes. I'd just say on this point of what did we give in those things is as Dan was alluding to, we very much likely would serve any other large retailer. So when we serve large retailers, we certainly give them rates that are commensurate with their volumes, but we're not restricted in ways of how we would do business with others or things like that. So it's very much along the line of a standard commercial relationship that we would have with a major retailer.

是的。我只想說，就這一點而言，我們在這些方面所做的貢獻正如丹所暗示的那樣，我們很可能會為任何其他大型零售商提供服務。因此，當我們為大型零售商提供服務時，我們當然會向他們提供與其銷售相稱的費率，但我們在與他人或類似事物開展業務的方式上不受限制。因此，這非常符合我們與大型零售商之間的標準商業關係。

Let me just add, too. One other thing, James, as it relates to the unbranded part of the business, volume is obviously important to us, but so is profitability. And where this was ending up is something that we weren't interested in from a profitability perspective. We can certainly go acquire volume, as we've demonstrated each quarter since separation, from many other places. And we have a lot of confidence and conviction in our ability to do that going forward, and do it at more profitable rates than what this unbranded agreement would have been.

我也補充一下吧。詹姆斯，另一件事涉及業務的非品牌部分，數量對我們來說顯然很重要，但獲利能力也很重要。從獲利角度來看，我們對最終的結果並不感興趣。我們當然可以從許多其他地方獲取數量，正如我們在分離以來每個季度所展示的那樣。我們對未來實現這一目標的能力充滿信心和信念，並且能夠以比這份無品牌協議更高的利潤率實現這一目標。

Our next question comes from Paul Condra with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的保羅·康德拉。

I just wanted to -- can you just clarify a bit. I know that eBay, it sounds like they're starting this process now with Adyen. So I'm just wondering, when are you actually no longer restricted to start looking at partnerships with other marketplaces? And then, my follow-up is just on a different topic. You did mention something about industry-standard tokens in a point-of-sale setting and I wonder if you could just give a little bit more detail about that?

我只是想——你能澄清一下嗎？我知道 eBay，聽起來他們現在正在與 Adyen 一起開始這個過程。所以我只是想知道，您什麼時候真正不再受限制開始考慮與其他市場建立合作關係？然後，我的後續行動只是關於另一個主題。您確實提到了有關銷售點設定中的行業標準代幣的一些內容，我想知道您是否可以提供更多詳細資訊？

Yes, I'll take the first part of that and then Bill can take the second part. So we have the ability to partner with many marketplaces, as you probably know. We're the underlying payment platform for Airbnb, for Uber and for others. But there was a set of eBay competitors that were carved out within the operating agreement in which we could not serve them as an MOR, and that goes away at the end of the operating agreement. So at the end of July 2020, that restriction is lifted. So -- and eBay has the ability to start to experiment with alternative PSPs beginning this year so they can do up to 5% of volume in 2 countries that they select, and then that can go up to 10% of volume within those 2 countries the last year of the operating agreement. So they have chance to experiment, just as we have a chance to work with leading marketplaces out there. It's just those that you might think of as being competitive with eBay, we've been prevented from working with them as part of that operating agreement, and that makes sense for both of us as we separated from eBay. Bill, do you want to talk about the in-store?

是的，我將承擔第一部分，然後比爾可以承擔第二部分。因此，正如您可能知道的那樣，我們有能力與許多市場合作。我們是 Airbnb、Uber 和其他公司的基礎支付平台。但是，營運協議中規定了一些 eBay 競爭對手，我們不能以 MOR 的身份為他們提供服務，而這種情況會在營運協議結束時消失。因此，到 2020 年 7 月底，該限制將被取消。因此，eBay 有能力從今年開始嘗試替代 PSP，這樣他們就可以在他們選擇的 2 個國家/地區實現最多 5% 的交易量，然後在這 2 個國家/地區最多可以達到 10% 的交易量經營協議的最後一年。因此，他們有機會進行試驗，就像我們有機會與領先的市場合作一樣。這只是那些你可能認為與 eBay 競爭的公司，作為營運協議的一部分，我們被禁止與他們合作，這對我們雙方來說都是有意義的，因為我們與 eBay 分開。比爾，你想談談店內的事嗎？

Yes. And for in-store, what we're really talking about there is the continuation of our implementation of Visa and Mastercard tokens and network standard tokens around our in-store offerings. So as we've discussed previously, we work with Google Pay and with others around in-store efforts and we are continuing to roll out our deployment of standard network tokens around those things, consistent with our Visa and Mastercard relationships that we've previously announced.

是的。對於店內產品，我們真正討論的是圍繞店內產品繼續實施 Visa 和 Mastercard 令牌以及網路標準令牌。因此，正如我們之前討論的那樣，我們與 Google Pay 以及其他公司圍繞店內工作進行合作，並且我們將繼續圍繞這些事情部署標準網絡令牌，這與我們之前建立的 Visa 和萬事達卡關係一致宣布。

Our next question comes from Ashwin Shirvaikar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ashwin Shirvaikar。

So can you comment on both the merchant and consumer engagement trends separately? And I think one related question is it seems payment transactions and revenue per active account are trending higher, but the payment transactions per active account decelerated as well. And then, would your answer change if you separated out eBay versus non-eBay merchant engagement? Sorry for the multipart but just kind of wanted to get an idea of that.

那麼您能分別評論一下商家和消費者的參與趨勢嗎？我認為一個相關的問題是，每個活躍帳戶的支付交易和收入似乎呈上升趨勢，但每個活躍帳戶的支付交易也在放緩。然後，如果您將 eBay 與非 eBay 商家參與分開，您的答案會改變嗎？對於多部分感到抱歉，但只是想了解一下。

Yes. So in terms of the overall engagement, which grew by 8%, in my opening remarks, I said, if you normalize that, and the reason that seems to be decelerating is because we're bringing on so many net new actives in comparison to the years before. And so when a new customer comes on and we bring them on throughout the year, they obviously haven't ramped up to the engagement levels that somebody who's been here for a year or 2 have been. So what we take a look at is we look at every one of those cohorts that came on, and we look at their engagement levels, the 2017 cohorts versus the 2016 cohorts that we brought on, and what we see is that our 2017 cohort, which was over 29 million net new actives, have more engagement than the cohorts that we brought in, in 2016. So what that does is that bodes very well for the future that as those large cohorts of net new actives that are more engaged than ever before start engaging with the platform over time, that takes our engagement levels up. And so you'd actually see double-digit increase in engagement if you normalize for the increase in net new actives. And I think on the other things we don't break those out and so we just do one number. Although I will say one thing, you could also see that we're having an acceleration in the number of merchants that are coming on to the PayPal platform as well. So we now have 18 million merchants on the platform that's also experienced the same type of growth as we've seen with our merchant -- our consumer growth as well.

是的。因此，就整體參與度而言，成長了8%，在我的開場白中，我說，如果你將其正常化，那麼似乎減速的原因是，與之前相比，我們引入瞭如此多的淨新活躍用戶前幾年。因此，當新客戶出現並且我們全年都會吸引他們時，他們顯然還沒有達到已經在這裡待了一兩年的人的參與程度。因此，我們要關注的是每一個新加入的群體，我們會觀察他們的參與水平，2017 年的群體與我們引入的 2016 年群體相比，我們看到的是 2017 年的群體，淨新活躍用戶數量超過2900 萬，比我們在2016 年引入的群體有更多的參與度。因此，這對未來來說是一個好兆頭，因為這些大量的淨新活躍用戶比以往任何時候都更加參與隨著時間的推移，在開始與平台互動之前，這會提高我們的參與程度。因此，如果您對淨新活躍用戶的成長進行正常化，您實際上會看到參與度出現兩位數的成長。我認為在其他事情上我們不會分解這些，所以我們只做一個數字。儘管我要說一件事，但您也可以看到，進入 PayPal 平台的商家數量也在增加。現在，我們的平台上有 1800 萬商家，他們也經歷了與我們的商家相同類型的成長——我們的消費者成長。

We have time for one last question from Darrin Peller with Barclays.

我們有時間回答巴克萊銀行達林佩勒的最後一個問題。

Look, I mean, I know you're describing the eBay contribution to be relatively minor by the time this rolls off. Obviously, it will give you a lot of opportunities. One of the things you mentioned was deploying capital to help diversify further. And I guess, I just wanted to hear more, given you're now post the Synchrony deal, tax reform, there should be a ton of cash available for you guys, like considerable sum, unlevered cash. So can you give us more color on potential thoughts around incremental buybacks the way you've done before? And then, what kind of M&A? How fast? It's just been a little while since we've seen material-sized M&A.

聽著，我的意思是，我知道您所描述的 eBay 的貢獻在這個專案開始時相對較小。顯然，這會給你很多機會。您提到的其中一件事是部署資本以幫助進一步多元化。我想，我只是想聽到更多，考慮到你們現在已經發布了 Synchrony 交易、稅收改革，你們應該有大量現金可用，例如大量的無槓桿現金。那麼，您能否像您之前那樣向我們介紹有關增量回購的潛在想法？那麼，什麼樣的併購呢？多快？我們已經有一段時間沒有看到大規模的併購了。

It's good to speak with you, Darrin. It's John. So in terms of our priorities for capital allocation, those haven't changed. Our top priority is always to invest for profitable growth. And that can be both in organic opportunities, it can also be looking at the M&A landscape. And we certainly, as you alluded to, given the cash balance and the ability to move that across borders, that we can be much more aggressive there perhaps than we have in the past. We are pretty rigorous in looking at all the different opportunities out there, but we're also pretty disciplined in making sure that there's the right return to create shareholder value. And so you can expect us to be active there. At the same point in time, we fundamentally believe that returning cash to shareholders is absolutely a good thing. The thing that I would want to impress upon you though is that we don't feel pressured to go out and do that immediately to try to show additional accretion or anything like that. Being measured and thoughtful in this area creates opportunities and it creates opportunities that, over the long term, could pay back much more than going out and, for example, taking a large chunk of our international cash and doing a stock buyback. So we believe there's a fine balance there, and we'll do that and we'll acquire companies and return cash to shareholders as we -- when the time is right for all of those. But you can expect us to be active on all of those fronts.

很高興與你交談，達林。是約翰。因此，就我們的資本配置優先事項而言，這些並沒有改變。我們的首要任務始終是投資以實現獲利成長。這既可以是有機機會，也可以是併購格局。當然，正如您所提到的，考慮到現金餘額和跨境轉移的能力，我們可能會比過去更加積極進取。我們非常嚴格地尋找所有不同的機會，但我們也非常自律地確保創造股東價值的適當回報。因此，您可以期待我們在那裡積極活躍。同時，我們從根本上認為，向股東返還現金絕對是件好事。不過，我想讓你們印象深刻的是，我們並不感到有壓力立即出去並這樣做以試圖展示額外的增長或類似的東西。在這一領域進行審慎和深思熟慮會創造機會，從長遠來看，它所創造的回報比走出去（例如，拿走大量國際現金並進行股票回購）要多得多。因此，我們相信那裡存在著良好的平衡，我們將這樣做，我們將收購公司並向股東返還現金——當時機成熟時。但您可以期待我們在所有這些方面都表現積極。

And yes, and I would just say -- add to John's points that we are happy with the set of assets and capabilities we have today. We've got a very robust product pipeline and we're ready to compete as a leader in the market. And I think we're playing from a position of strength. I have to agree with John. I think that our balance sheet is a strong weapon for us. We have $7 billion of cash, we're going to bring in another $6 billion. We've got strong free cash flow each year. And we intend to stay acquisitive and be a consolidator in the industry. We do look at hundreds of opportunities every quarter from small investments to larger ones. And we have a set of criteria that we look at. We're very disciplined. Needs to fit into our vision and mission. It needs to accelerate our progress across either a key vertical, a geography, or some piece of technology that we don't have. But bottom line, expect us to be acquisitive, but as John said, in both a disciplined and a thoughtful manner.

是的，我只想說——補充約翰的觀點，我們對今天擁有的資產和能力感到滿意。我們擁有非常強大的產品線，並且已準備好作為市場領導者進行競爭。我認為我們的比賽處於強勢地位。我必須同意約翰的觀點。我認為我們的資產負債表對我們來說是一個強大的武器。我們有 70 億美元現金，我們將另外引進 60 億美元。我們每年都有強勁的自由現金流。我們打算維持收購勢頭，成為產業的整合者。我們每季都會審視數百個機會，從小型投資到大型投資。我們有一套我們關注的標準。我們非常有紀律。需要符合我們的願景和使命。它需要加速我們在關鍵垂直領域、地理領域或我們不具備的某些技術方面的進展。但最重要的是，期望我們能夠貪得無厭，但正如約翰所說，以一種有紀律和深思熟慮的方式。

Okay. Well, I want to thank everybody for your time and for joining us today. We really appreciate it and we look forward to speaking with you soon. Thank you. Thank you, operator.

好的。好的，我要感謝大家抽出寶貴的時間加入我們今天的活動。我們非常感謝，並期待盡快與您交談。謝謝。謝謝你，接線生。

Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference call. This concludes the program, and you may disconnect now. Everyone, have a great afternoon.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的電話會議。程式到此結束，您現在可以斷開連線。各位，度過一個愉快的下午。