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Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this is the operator. Today's call will begin momentarily. Thank you for your patience.
女士們先生們,這是接線員。今天的通話即將開始。感謝您的耐心等待。
Thank you for standing by. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Patterson-UTI Energy Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Mike Drickamer, Vice President of Events to Relations. You may begin your conference.
謝謝你的支持。此時,我謹歡迎大家參加 Patterson-UTI Energy 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 (操作員指示)Mike Drickamer,活動關係副總裁。您可以開始您的會議了。
James Michael Drickamer - VP of IR
James Michael Drickamer - VP of IR
Thank you, Cheryl. Good morning. And on behalf of Patterson-UTI Energy, I'd like to welcome you to today's conference call to discuss the results for the 3 months ended June 30, 2023. Participating in today's call will be Andy Hendricks, Chief Executive Officer; Andy Smith, Chief Financial Officer; and Mike Holcomb, Chief Operating Officer.
謝謝你,謝麗爾。早上好。我謹代表 Patterson-UTI Energy 歡迎您參加今天的電話會議,討論截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日的三個月的業績。參加今天電話會議的包括首席執行官 Andy Hendricks;安迪·史密斯,首席財務官;和首席運營官邁克·霍爾科姆。
A quick reminder that statements made in this conference call that state, the company's or management's plans, intentions, targets, beliefs, expectations or predictions for the future are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties as disclosed in the company's SEC filings, which could cause the company's actual results to differ materially.
快速提醒一下,本次電話會議中發表的聲明公司或管理層的計劃、意圖、目標、信念、期望或對未來的預測的聲明均為前瞻性聲明。這些前瞻性陳述受到公司向 SEC 文件中披露的風險和不確定性的影響,這可能導致公司的實際結果存在重大差異。
The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. Statements made in this conference call include non-GAAP financial measures. Required reconciliations to GAAP financial measures are included on our website, patenergy.com and in the company's press release issued prior to this conference call. And now it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Andy Hendricks for some opening remarks. Andy?
該公司不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。本次電話會議中的聲明包括非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的網站 patenergy.com 以及本次電話會議之前發布的公司新聞稿中包含了與 GAAP 財務措施所需的對賬信息。現在,我很高興將電話轉交給安迪·亨德里克斯,他將發表一些開場白。安迪?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Mike. Good morning, and welcome to Patterson-UTI's second quarter conference call. Our drilling business performed very well with sequential increases in both revenues and margins. Contract renewals favorably impacted our average revenue and adjusted margin on a per day basis, offsetting the slight decline in our rig count.
謝謝,邁克。早上好,歡迎參加 Patterson-UTI 第二季度電話會議。我們的鑽井業務表現非常出色,收入和利潤均連續增長。合同續簽對我們的平均收入和調整後的每日利潤產生了有利的影響,抵消了我們鑽機數量的小幅下降。
The improvement in contract drilling revenues and margin during the second quarter met our expectation and our rig count outperformed the broader industry decrease. The decline in industry activity had a more significant impact on our pressure pumping business with volatility and white space impacting results. The commodity price volatility in June led to some customers deciding to reduce drilling and/or completion activity. For us, the decrease in frac activity occurred much faster than the decrease in our rig count. And as such, we believe our pressure pumping activity has already reached a trough here in July, while we expect additional rig releases over the next few weeks.
第二季度合同鑽井收入和利潤率的改善符合我們的預期,而且我們的鑽機數量優於更廣泛的行業下降。行業活動的下降對我們的壓力泵業務產生了更重大的影響,波動性和空白區域影響了結果。六月份的大宗商品價格波動導致一些客戶決定減少鑽探和/或完井活動。對我們來說,壓裂活動的減少比鑽機數量的減少要快得多。因此,我們相信我們的壓力泵送活動已在 7 月達到低谷,同時我們預計未來幾週將釋放更多鑽機。
With the recent strength in oil prices along with natural gas futures in contango, we believe the industry rig count is near a bottom, and both rig count and frac activity will improve later in the year and in 2024.
隨著近期油價走強以及天然氣期貨升水,我們認為行業鑽機數量已接近底部,鑽機數量和壓裂活動都將在今年晚些時候和 2024 年有所改善。
In contract drilling, we ended the second quarter with 127 active rigs and expect a reduction of approximately 10 rigs during the third quarter, of which 6 have already been released and 2 more are expected to occur within the next week. These releases are the result of notifications received primarily in late June. Following these near-term rig releases, we expect our rig count to stabilize and are optimistic that the recent strength in oil prices may positively impact future drilling activity.
在合同鑽井方面,第二季度結束時,我們有 127 台活躍鑽機,預計第三季度將減少約 10 台鑽機,其中 6 台已經釋放,另外 2 台預計將在下週內出現。這些發布是主要在六月下旬收到的通知的結果。在這些近期鑽機發布之後,我們預計鑽機數量將穩定,並對近期油價走強可能對未來鑽探活動產生積極影響持樂觀態度。
Despite recent rig releases, day rates remained strong with recent contract renewals for super-spec rigs in the low to mid-30s, including ancillary revenue. As previously discussed, we continue to prioritize margins over activity.
儘管最近發布了鑽機,但近期超規格鑽機續籤的合同在 30 多歲左右,包括輔助收入在內,日費率仍然強勁。如前所述,我們繼續將利潤置於活動之上。
In pressure pumping, we believe the decline in activity is already behind us, and we have additional work scheduled to begin later this quarter. Based on current activity levels, we stacked the Tier 2 diesel spread in order to accelerate its conversion to a Tier 4 dual fuel. When this conversion is complete, 10 of our 12 spreads will be [dual-fuel] capable including 4 spreads that will be Tier 4 dual fuel, which better positions us to take advantage of what we expect to be increasing completion activity later in the year and in 2024.
在壓力泵方面,我們相信活動的下降已經成為過去,我們計劃在本季度晚些時候開始額外的工作。根據當前的活動水平,我們疊加了 Tier 2 柴油,以加速其向 Tier 4 雙燃料的轉換。轉換完成後,我們 12 個價差中的 10 個將具備 [雙燃料] 能力,其中 4 個價差將採用 Tier 4 雙燃料,這使我們能夠更好地利用我們預計今年晚些時候將增加的完成活動以及2024 年。
Pressure pumping pricing has been challenged recently given the decrease in activity, but the market pricing for dedicated work has held up better than spot work.
由於活動減少,壓力泵定價最近受到挑戰,但專用工作的市場定價比現場工作保持得更好。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Andy Smith, who will review the financial results for the second quarter.
接下來,我會將電話轉給安迪史密斯,他將審查第二季度的財務業績。
C. Andrew Smith - Executive VP & CFO
C. Andrew Smith - Executive VP & CFO
Thanks, Andy. Net income for the second quarter was $84.6 million or $0.40 per share, which included $7.9 million of merger and integration expense and $3.8 million of impairment expense in our E&P business.
謝謝,安迪。第二季度淨利潤為 8460 萬美元,即每股 0.40 美元,其中包括 790 萬美元的合併和整合費用以及勘探與生產業務的 380 萬美元的減值費用。
During the second quarter, we repurchased 1.8 million shares, which brings the total repurchases under our share repurchase program through the first half of the year to 7.4 million shares or approximately 3.5% of the shares that were outstanding at the beginning of the year. Including $33.5 million of dividends, we have returned approximately $126 million of cash to our shareholders through the first 6 months of 2023. At June 30, $281 million remained under our share repurchase authorization, however, our ability to repurchase shares during the third quarter may be limited due to the pending merger with NexTier. We remain committed to targeting a return of 50% of free cash flow to shareholders through a combination of dividends and buybacks. For the first half of 2023, we are well ahead of this target as we opportunistically repurchased shares during the first quarter.
第二季度,我們回購了 180 萬股,這使得上半年我們的股票回購計劃下的回購總量達到 740 萬股,約佔年初流通股的 3.5%。包括3350 萬美元的股息在內,我們在2023 年前6 個月已向股東返還了約1.26 億美元的現金。截至6 月30 日,我們的股票回購授權仍有2.81 億美元,但是,我們在第三季度回購股票的能力可能會下降。由於與 NexTier 即將合併,因此受到限制。我們仍然致力於通過股息和回購相結合的方式向股東回報 50% 的自由現金流。 2023 年上半年,我們遠遠領先於這一目標,因為我們在第一季度趁機回購了股票。
Based on our outlook for the second half of the year, we are lowering our 2023 CapEx forecast of $485 million. This forecast is comprised of approximately $280 million of CapEx for contract drilling $140 million for pressure pumping, $20 million for directional drilling and $45 million for our other businesses and general corporate purposes.
根據我們對下半年的展望,我們將 2023 年資本支出預測下調為 4.85 億美元。這一預測包括約 2.8 億美元用於合同鑽井的資本支出、1.4 億美元用於壓力泵送、2000 萬美元用於定向鑽井以及 4500 萬美元用於我們的其他業務和一般企業用途。
In contract drilling, average adjusted rig margin per day in the U.S. increased $1,030 sequentially to $16,910, driven by a $1,190 increase in average rig revenue per day to $35,940. At June 30, 2023, we had term contracts for drilling rigs in the U.S., providing for approximately $760 million of future dayrate drilling revenue. Based on contracts currently in place in the U.S., we expect an average of 71 rigs operating under term contracts during the third quarter of 2023 and an average of 44 rigs operating under term contracts over the 4 quarters ending June 30, 2024.
在合同鑽井方面,美國調整後的平均每天鑽機利潤環比增加了 1,030 美元,達到 16,910 美元,這是由於平均每天鑽機收入增加了 1,190 美元,達到 35,940 美元。截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日,我們在美國簽訂了鑽機定期合同,為未來日產鑽探收入提供了約 7.6 億美元。根據美國目前簽訂的合同,我們預計 2023 年第三季度平均有 71 座鑽機根據定期合同運營,在截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日的 4 個季度中平均有 44 座鑽機根據定期合同運營。
In Colombia, second quarter contract drilling revenues were $12.9 million, with an adjusted gross margin of $3.7 million. For the third quarter in the U.S., we expect our average rig count will be 119 rigs. Average rig revenue per day is expected to be approximately $35,500 and average rig operating cost per day is expected to be $19,400 which reflects a slight increase in operating costs associated with the number of rigs being stacked this quarter. In Colombia, we expect to generate approximately $8.4 million of contract drilling revenue during the third quarter with adjusted gross margin of approximately $2 million.
在哥倫比亞,第二季度合同鑽井收入為 1,290 萬美元,調整後毛利率為 370 萬美元。我們預計美國第三季度的平均鑽機數量將為 119 台。平均每天的鑽機收入預計約為 35,500 美元,平均每天的鑽機運營成本預計為 19,400 美元,這反映出與本季度堆積的鑽機數量相關的運營成本略有增加。在哥倫比亞,我們預計第三季度將產生約 840 萬美元的合同鑽井收入,調整後毛利率約為 200 萬美元。
In pressure pumping, during the second quarter, increased white space in the calendar year -- in the calendar and lower pricing on primarily spot market work contributed to a sequential decrease in revenues and margins. Second quarter pressure pumping revenues were $250 million with an adjusted gross margin of $53.8 million.
在壓力泵方面,第二季度,日曆年的空白空間增加,以及主要現貨市場工作的定價較低,導致收入和利潤率連續下降。第二季度壓力泵收入為 2.5 億美元,調整後毛利率為 5,380 萬美元。
For the third quarter, we plan to operate 11 spreads, we have had substantial white space in July, but we expect improving utilization through the remainder of the quarter. Maintaining enough crews for the increasing work will negatively impact margins in the third quarter. Accordingly, for the third quarter, pressure pumping revenues are expected to be approximately $230 million with an adjusted gross margin of $37 million.
對於第三季度,我們計劃運營 11 個價差,7 月份我們有大量空白空間,但我們預計本季度剩餘時間的利用率會有所提高。為不斷增加的工作量維持足夠的人員將對第三季度的利潤率產生負面影響。因此,第三季度壓力泵收入預計約為 2.3 億美元,調整後毛利率為 3700 萬美元。
In our Directional Drilling segment, we experienced a decline in revenue and margin during the second quarter due primarily to reduced activity levels. Directional Drilling revenues were $55.1 million in the second quarter with an adjusted gross margin of $7.8 million. For the third quarter, we expect Directional Drilling revenues to decrease to $52 million, although expected adjusted gross margin is expected to be approximately flat with the second quarter.
在我們的定向鑽井部門,我們第二季度的收入和利潤下降,主要是由於活動水平減少。第二季度定向鑽井收入為 5510 萬美元,調整後毛利率為 780 萬美元。對於第三季度,我們預計定向鑽井收入將減少至 5200 萬美元,但調整後的毛利率預計將與第二季度大致持平。
In our other operations, which includes our rental, technology and E&P businesses, revenues for the second quarter were $21.1 million with an adjusted gross margin of $8.3 million. For the third quarter, we expect revenues and adjusted gross margin to be similar to the second quarter.
在我們的其他業務中,包括租賃、技術和勘探與生產業務,第二季度收入為 2110 萬美元,調整後毛利率為 830 萬美元。對於第三季度,我們預計收入和調整後毛利率將與第二季度相似。
On a consolidated basis, in the second quarter, the total depreciation, depletion, amortization and impairment expense amounted to $127 million, including $3.8 million of impairment charges at our E&P business. For the third quarter, we expect total depreciation, depletion, amortization and impairment expense of approximately $122 million.
綜合來看,第二季度的折舊、消耗、攤銷和減值費用總額為 1.27 億美元,其中勘探與生產業務的減值費用為 380 萬美元。我們預計第三季度的折舊、消耗、攤銷和減值費用總額約為 1.22 億美元。
Selling, general and administrative expense for the third quarter is expected to be approximately $31 million. Our effective tax rate for 2023 is expected to be approximately 17% although we do not expect to pay any significant U.S. federal cash taxes. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Andy Hendricks.
第三季度的銷售、一般和管理費用預計約為 3100 萬美元。儘管我們預計不會繳納任何重大的美國聯邦現金稅,但 2023 年的有效稅率預計約為 17%。現在,我將把電話轉回給安迪·亨德里克斯。
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Andy. Looking ahead, we are constructive on the overall U.S. onshore market. With WTI trading above $75 and natural gas futures about $3.50 in forward months, E&P operators should see a significant improvement in their well economics. We expect that some operators will increase their activity in drilling and completions by year-end and into 2024.
謝謝,安迪。展望未來,我們對整個美國在岸市場持建設性態度。由於未來幾個月 WTI 交易價格將高於 75 美元,天然氣期貨價格約為 3.50 美元,勘探與生產運營商應該會看到其油井經濟效益顯著改善。我們預計,到年底和 2024 年,一些運營商將增加鑽井和完井活動。
As 2025 is planned to be a big year for LNG export, we expect to see activity in gas basins recover in 2024 to previous levels or higher. With the increasing activity in the gas markets, we expect overall utilization and pricing to improve into next year across the U.S.
由於 2025 年預計將成為液化天然氣出口的大年,我們預計天然氣盆地的活動將在 2024 年恢復到之前的水平或更高。隨著天然氣市場活動的增加,我們預計明年美國的整體利用率和定價將有所改善。
The U.S. onshore market is poised to remain steady and strong for the foreseeable future. Also, we are very excited about the recent announced transactions to strengthen our position as a leading provider of drilling and completion services in the United States. The merger with NexTier will bring together two top-tier and technology-driven drilling and well completions businesses, creating a leading platform at the forefront of innovation.
在可預見的未來,美國在岸市場將保持穩定和強勁。此外,我們對最近宣布的交易感到非常興奮,這些交易加強了我們作為美國領先的鑽井和完井服務提供商的地位。與 NexTier 的合併將匯集兩家頂級、技術驅動的鑽井和完井業務,打造一個處於創新前沿的領先平台。
Similarly, Ulterra's leading position in the PDC drill bit business will expand our operational and technology platform, expand our data portfolio and broaden our geographic footprint through strong relationships with key international customers, especially in the Middle East.
同樣,Ulterra 在 PDC 鑽頭業務中的領先地位將擴大我們的運營和技術平台,擴大我們的數據組合,並通過與主要國際客戶(尤其是中東客戶)的牢固關係擴大我們的地理足跡。
We continue to work toward closing these transactions and look forward to welcoming employees from both NexTier and Ulterra to the Patterson-UTI team. With that, we'd like to thank all of our employees for their hard work, efforts and successes to help provide the world with oil and gas for the products that make people's lives better. Cheryl, we'd now like to open the call to questions.
我們將繼續努力完成這些交易,並期待歡迎 NexTier 和 Ulterra 的員工加入 Patterson-UTI 團隊。在此,我們要感謝所有員工的辛勤工作、努力和成功,為世界提供石油和天然氣產品,讓人們的生活變得更美好。謝麗爾,我們現在開始提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from Arun Jayaram of JPMorgan.
(操作員指令)您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram。
Arun Jayaram - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Arun Jayaram - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Andy, you guys have been able to kind of hold -- leading edge dayrates at attractive levels. You mentioned low to mid-30s. As we think about 2024, what's your confidence in being able to hold those types of dayrates as we start thinking about kind of fine-tuning our model for next year.
安迪,你們已經能夠將領先的日費率保持在有吸引力的水平。你提到了30歲左右。當我們考慮 2024 年時,當我們開始考慮對明年的模型進行微調時,您對能夠保持這些類型的日費率有什麼信心?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
As we mentioned before -- and good Morning Arun, as we mentioned before, we're really focused on trying to maintain dayrates and margins, not focused on the market share, things have gotten a little bit more competitive recently when you're not on term contract. And we decided we don't want to fight all these, and our rig count is going to go down a little bit, but this is more of a softness that we see improving later in the year and certainly going into next year.
正如我們之前提到的,早上好,阿倫,正如我們之前提到的,我們真正專注於維持日費率和利潤,而不是市場份額,最近當你不這樣做時,事情變得更具競爭力。定期合同。我們決定不想與所有這些作鬥爭,我們的鑽機數量將會減少一點,但這更多的是一種軟性,我們看到今年晚些時候會有所改善,而且肯定會持續到明年。
But it's our objective to try to maintain pricing where we can. And when you look at the leading edge down into maybe low 30s to mid-30s, and that's including everything. It really hasn't come down that much. Let me hand it over to Mike Holcomb, we'll have some more comments on that, too.
但我們的目標是盡可能維持定價。當你看看領先優勢下降到 30 多歲到 30 多歲中期時,這包括了一切。確實還沒有下降那麼多。讓我將其交給 Mike Holcomb,我們也會對此發表更多評論。
James Michael Holcomb - COO
James Michael Holcomb - COO
I think the thing that I would add is, I mean, for us, leading edge this quarter is net renewals with existing customers and clients. And there's probably some work out in the market. It's a bit more competitive than that. But if you think about it looking forward, commodity prices stay in the more recent range going forward. And we're very confident that pricing is going to be stable with some upside as we move into the next year.
我想我要補充的是,對我們來說,本季度的領先優勢是現有客戶和客戶的淨續約。市場上可能有一些解決方案。比這更有競爭力一點。但如果你展望未來,大宗商品價格將保持在最近的範圍內。我們非常有信心,隨著進入明年,價格將保持穩定並有一定的上漲空間。
I think there, it really depends on where you're sitting. But we really do not do spot work in the drilling business. If we're not working with program drillers. We don't chase that work. And I think that's worked well for us.
我認為這實際上取決於你坐在哪裡。但我們確實不做鑽井業務的現場工作。如果我們不與計劃演練人員合作。我們不追逐那項工作。我認為這對我們來說效果很好。
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
And I think you're seeing relative discipline across large public contract drillers. So we're still competitive, but there's relative discipline there as well.
我認為您會看到大型公共合同鑽井公司的相對紀律。所以我們仍然有競爭力,但也有相對的紀律。
Arun Jayaram - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Arun Jayaram - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Great. Andy, a follow-up on Ulterra. I think you announced this along with the nex transaction. But I wanted to get your thoughts on what the potential earnings power of that entity will be? I think you paid about $370 million in cash, about 35 million shares. But how should we think about kind of an EBITDA type run rate? And maybe updated thoughts on when do you expect that deal to close?
偉大的。安迪,《Ulterra》的後續作品。我想你是在下一筆交易的同時宣布了這一點。但我想了解您對該實體的潛在盈利能力的看法?我想你支付了大約 3.7 億美元的現金,大約 3500 萬股股票。但我們應該如何考慮 EBITDA 類型的運行率呢?也許還有關於您預計交易何時完成的最新想法?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
Yes. We last said that we expect '23 EBITDA for them to be $160 million to $180 million. We think this has upside next year for a variety of reasons, some in the U.S. and definitely international and some offshore as well. So we haven't decided exactly how we're going to be reporting this in the filings going forward, but we do see upside to the $160 million to $180 million this year.
是的。我們上次說過,我們預計 23 年的 EBITDA 為 1.6 億至 1.8 億美元。我們認為,由於多種原因,明年這種情況會出現上升趨勢,其中一些是在美國,當然也有一些是在國際上,還有一些是在海外。因此,我們還沒有確切決定如何在未來的文件中報告這一點,但我們確實看到了今年 1.6 億至 1.8 億美元的上漲空間。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Scott Gruber of Citi.
您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的斯科特·格魯伯。
Scott Andrew Gruber - Director, Head of Americas Energy Sector & Senior Analyst
Scott Andrew Gruber - Director, Head of Americas Energy Sector & Senior Analyst
So just curious on how things develop as the rig count starts to improve here potentially in 4Q and into '24. So in your conversations, the customers that could be putting incremental rigs to work. Are they demanding concessions to the current spot? Are they comfortable with the current spot? And if they are demanding concessions, would you reserve your spare rig capacity until the market tightens further?
因此,我只是好奇隨著鑽機數量可能在第四季度和 24 年開始有所改善,事情會如何發展。因此,在您的談話中,可能會將增量設備投入使用的客戶。他們是否要求對目前的地位做出讓步?他們對目前的位置感到滿意嗎?如果他們要求讓步,您會保留備用鑽機產能直到市場進一步收緊嗎?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
So I don't think we would give any concessions from where we are now. I think as the rig count starts to move up later this year and into next year, and I think primarily driven by natural gas basins, I think that leading edge actually has potential to move up because we're still relatively high on utilization, and that's going to push higher into next year. Mike, any comments on that?
所以我認為我們不會在目前的情況下做出任何讓步。我認為,隨著鑽機數量在今年晚些時候和明年開始增加,我認為主要是由天然氣盆地推動的,我認為領先優勢實際上有潛力增加,因為我們的利用率仍然相對較高,並且這將推動明年更高。邁克,對此有何評論?
James Michael Holcomb - COO
James Michael Holcomb - COO
No. I think you've covered it. It's -- again, I go back to the commodity prices when we're in this range, it takes a lot of pressure off. If you were 3 or 4 weeks ago, maybe (inaudible) to a different answer, but I think a lot of it depends on where we're at from a commodity standpoint.
不,我想你已經介紹過了。再次,我回到大宗商品價格,當我們處於這個範圍內時,它會減輕很多壓力。如果您是 3 或 4 週前,也許(聽不清)有不同的答案,但我認為這很大程度上取決於我們從商品的角度來看所處的位置。
Scott Andrew Gruber - Director, Head of Americas Energy Sector & Senior Analyst
Scott Andrew Gruber - Director, Head of Americas Energy Sector & Senior Analyst
I got you. It certainly helps. And just thinking about the potential magnitude of the recovery, we're in line with your view that will get a full recovery on the gas side. How should we think about the oil side at $80 PI? Is this price that can hold? And there's some cost relief, particularly with tubulars coming down. How many oil rigs do you think we could recover next year?
我接到你了。這當然有幫助。只要考慮到復甦的潛在規模,我們就同意您的觀點,即天然氣方面將全面復甦。 PI 為 80 美元時,我們應該如何看待石油方面?這個價格能堅持嗎?而且成本也有所降低,尤其是管材的減少。您認為明年我們可以恢復多少個石油鑽井平台?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
I don't think I know exactly what the number is going to go to next year. But you look at where the Baker Hughes rig count is now where it was earlier in the year, you get a recovery in gas, you're probably pushing over 700 rigs in the first quarter next year. But I think it just has upside from where we are.
我想我並不確切知道明年的數字會是多少。但你看看貝克休斯現在的鑽機數量與今年早些時候的水平相同,你會發現天然氣有所復甦,明年第一季度你可能會增加 700 多個鑽機。但我認為,與我們目前的情況相比,這只是有好處。
Scott Andrew Gruber - Director, Head of Americas Energy Sector & Senior Analyst
Scott Andrew Gruber - Director, Head of Americas Energy Sector & Senior Analyst
Okay. I know that was a tough one, but I was curious to know your thoughts.
好的。我知道這很困難,但我很想知道你的想法。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Kurt Hallead of Benchmark.
您的下一個問題來自 Benchmark 的 Kurt Hallad。
Kurt Kevin Hallead - Research Analyst
Kurt Kevin Hallead - Research Analyst
Appreciate the colored commentary as always and the perspectives on the outlook. So Andy, in the context of the land drilling market, it appears to me that the pricing dynamics have stabilized, and I think you referenced kind of low 30s to mid-30s. But is there any incremental -- a couple of your peers have talked about maybe some incremental slippage in cash margin and some kind of rigs repriced that might have been priced at a higher level, kind of coming back into the current market elements. When you think about your rig fleet, is everything that you've kind of booked out for the rest of this year kind of solidly in that 32% to 35% range? Or do you see some slippage on cash margin going into the fourth quarter?
一如既往地欣賞彩色評論和對前景的看法。安迪,在陸地鑽探市場的背景下,在我看來,定價動態已經穩定,我認為你提到的是 30 多歲到 30 多歲左右。但是否有任何增量——你們的一些同行談到了現金利潤率可能會出現一些增量下滑,以及某種鑽機的重新定價,這些鑽機的定價可能會更高,有點回到當前的市場元素。當您考慮您的鑽機隊時,您今年剩餘時間預訂的所有設備是否都在 32% 到 35% 的範圍內?或者您認為第四季度現金利潤率會出現下滑嗎?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
I think right now, it's going to be pretty steady. I think we'll have to wait and see how fourth quarter plays out and what the rig count does towards the end of the fourth quarter.
我認為現在,它會非常穩定。我認為我們必須等待,看看第四季度的表現以及第四季度末鑽機數量的情況。
Kurt Kevin Hallead - Research Analyst
Kurt Kevin Hallead - Research Analyst
Okay. And then just a follow-up in the context of the frac market as you add, you go from 11 crews to 12 crews a year in the fourth quarter. If you run the math on the revenue per crew that you expect in the third quarter, extrapolate that into the fourth, it looks like your fourth quarter revenue could approach second quarter levels. But logically, to me, that doesn't seem to make sense given the market dynamics. So how should we think about the frac revenue progression going out again into fourth quarter?
好的。然後,正如您補充的那樣,在壓裂市場的背景下進行了後續行動,在第四季度,您從每年 11 名工作人員增加到 12 名工作人員。如果您對第三季度預期的每位船員收入進行數學計算,並將其推斷到第四季度,那麼第四季度的收入似乎可能會接近第二季度的水平。但從邏輯上講,對我來說,考慮到市場動態,這似乎沒有意義。那麼我們應該如何看待第四季度的壓裂收入增長?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
I think -- let me just kind of explain what happened in Q2 and what we're seeing so far in Q3, and it's really about towards the end of Q2, we had an acceleration in white space and we're starting off in July with a lot of white space in the calendar in pressure pumping, and it only warrants us working 11 spreads in the quarter. But we're seeing more dedicated work layering in at the end of the third quarter, and so it makes sense to have that 12 spread working in the fourth.
我想- 讓我解釋一下第二季度發生的事情以及我們在第三季度到目前為止所看到的情況,這實際上是在第二季度末,我們在空白領域加速了,我們將從7 月份開始由於日曆中存在大量壓力泵空白,因此我們只能在本季度執行 11 個價差。但我們看到更多專注的工作在第三季度末分層進行,因此在第四季度進行 12 項工作是有意義的。
So we're carrying some extra costs in the third within the schedule starts to round out a lot more towards the end of the third quarter and going into the fourth quarter with much less white space. So a lot of what's happening right now, both for drilling rigs and for pressure pumping is a result of where commodities were a couple of months ago. Well, commodities are in a different space right now, so if you look forward a couple of months, if it stays at this level, then our schedule for the frac looks a lot better.
因此,我們在時間表的第三個季度中承擔了一些額外成本,在第三季度末開始完成更多成本,並進入第四季度,空白空間要少得多。因此,現在發生的很多事情,無論是鑽機還是壓力泵,都是幾個月前商品價格的結果。好吧,大宗商品現在處於不同的空間,所以如果你展望幾個月,如果它保持在這個水平,那麼我們的壓裂時間表看起來會好得多。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Derek Podhaizer of Barclays.
您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的德里克·波德海澤 (Derek Podhaizer)。
Derek John Podhaizer - Equity Research Analyst
Derek John Podhaizer - Equity Research Analyst
I know you talked about having some confidence that the rig count is going to a bottom here. You talked, I think you said, 10 rigs and 6 came off and 2 more, and we'll get 2 more after that. Are you just having conversations around starting rigs up in the fourth quarter or end of the third quarter? Are you signing rigs yet? Just a little more color around your confidence that we'll see rigs start being added as we get towards the end of the year.
我知道您談到對這裡的鑽機數量即將觸底有信心。你說過,我想你說過,10 台鑽機,6 台被拆除,還有 2 台,之後我們還會再得到 2 台。你們只是在討論第四季度或第三季度末啟動鑽機嗎?你還簽裝備嗎?只要您有信心,我們將在年底看到鑽機開始添加,請多加一點色彩。
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
I think it's really just, for us, right now, it's based on where the commodities are trading. Our customers are going to start their budget cycles here pretty soon. And we feel like when commodities are at this level, and this has happened historically that soon after their budget cycle or even sometimes in the middle, we start to get phone calls to accelerate things. If commodity stays where they are at these levels, I don't think you'll see the traditional Q4 that gets a little bit soft at the end, I think you'll see a fairly stable Q4 going into the end of the year.
我認為,對於我們來說,目前這確實是基於大宗商品的交易地點。我們的客戶很快就會在這裡開始他們的預算週期。我們覺得,當大宗商品處於這個水平時,這種情況在歷史上曾發生過,在預算週期結束後不久,甚至有時在中間,我們開始接到電話來加速事情的進展。如果大宗商品保持在這些水平,我認為您不會看到傳統的第四季度在年底變得有點疲軟,我認為您會看到一個相當穩定的第四季度進入今年年底。
Derek John Podhaizer - Equity Research Analyst
Derek John Podhaizer - Equity Research Analyst
Got it. That's helpful, switching over to pressure pumping, obviously, white space is putting downward pressure on your profitability. Can you just talk about when you merge with NexTier and you fold into the NexTier integration strategy. How should we think about those synergies that you could unlock? What are you missing today that NexTier provides and where do you expect profitability to go as you continue to upgrade these assets to next-gen and you fold into the wells integration strategy that NexTier brings to the table?
知道了。這很有幫助,切換到壓力泵,顯然,空白會給您的盈利能力帶來下行壓力。您能談談當您與 NexTier 合併並納入 NexTier 集成策略時嗎?我們應該如何考慮您可以釋放的協同效應?今天,您缺少 NexTier 提供的哪些功能?隨著您繼續將這些資產升級到下一代並融入 NexTier 帶來的油井整合戰略,您預計盈利能力將走向何方?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
Yes. If you look at our fleet of 12 spreads, their performance for the customers, they're working for, is very strong, they're very competitive. And we're going to have 10 dual-fuel spreads. So it's very marketable 12 spreads that we have.
是的。如果你看看我們的 12 個價差機隊,就會發現他們為他們工作的客戶提供的服務非常強大,非常有競爭力。我們將有 10 個雙燃料價差。所以我們的 12 價差非常有市場。
As we roll it into NexTier, what we're really going to gain is the integration of all the other ancillary services that we can layer on there. whether it's wireline, logistics, sand handling, things like that, the power fuel systems that they have for natural gas blending at the well site, so we'll be able to layer that over time on our 12 spreads, and that's where we get a lot of upside on the 12 spreads that we're running today.
當我們將其引入 NexTier 時,我們真正將獲得的是我們可以分層的所有其他輔助服務的集成。無論是電纜、物流、砂處理等,還是他們在井場進行天然氣混合的動力燃料系統,因此我們將能夠隨著時間的推移將其分層到我們的 12 個價差上,這就是我們得到的我們今天運行的12 個點差有很多上漲空間。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Keith MacKey of RBC Capital Markets.
您的下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Keith MacKey。
Keith MacKey - Analyst
Keith MacKey - Analyst
I just wanted to start out on the pricing in the drilling market and what you're seeing in that low to mid-30s dayrate. Can you just talk maybe about some of the regional dynamics. We heard earlier in the year, of course, that gas basins, particularly the Haynesville were softening more than oil basins, but with some of those rigs moving over to oil basins, maybe the pricing there has taken a hit. So can you just kind of run us through what you're seeing in the various basins for pricing and how you think that will play out as we go through this modest recovery in rig counts?
我只是想從鑽井市場的定價以及您在 30 多美元的日費率中看到的情況開始。您能否談談一些區域動態?當然,我們今年早些時候聽說天然氣盆地,特別是海恩斯維爾盆地的軟化程度超過了石油盆地,但隨著其中一些鑽井平台轉移到石油盆地,那裡的價格可能受到了打擊。那麼,您能否向我們介紹一下您在各個盆地看到的定價情況,以及您認為當我們經歷鑽機數量的溫和復蘇時,定價將如何發揮作用?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
Yes. If you look through the year, it really kind of started with the Haynesville getting soft and then other basins that feed into Henry Hub, like South Texas, Mid-Con, those various basins have produced gas, and so that freed up rigs. Some of those rigs left gas basins and pushed it into oil basins. We didn't actually move any rigs from gas into oil, we're leaving our rigs where they are. We think there's upside there.
是的。如果你回顧一下這一年,它確實是從海恩斯維爾變得軟弱開始的,然後是其他流入亨利中心的盆地,比如德克薩斯州南部、中部地區,這些不同的盆地都生產了天然氣,因此釋放了鑽機。其中一些鑽井平台離開天然氣盆地並將其推入石油盆地。我們實際上並沒有將任何鑽井平台從天然氣轉移到石油,我們將我們的鑽井平台留在原處。我們認為那裡有好的一面。
The Northeast gas held pretty steady through most of the year up until recently, but I think they're seeing a little bit more stress in the Northeast. So I think there's a little bit of a slowdown up there, not to the extent that we're seeing in the Haynesville and other areas tied into Henry Hub, but a little bit of stress up in the Northeast. And I think that's going to affect things for a little bit. But Again, just looking at the forward strip, if that holds in, all the stress gets relieved for our E&P customers and their economics start to improve. Mike, do you want to add anything on that?
直到最近,東北地區的天然氣在今年大部分時間裡都保持相當穩定,但我認為東北地區的壓力更大一些。所以我認為那裡有一點放緩,沒有達到我們在海恩斯維爾和與亨利中心相關的其他地區看到的程度,但在東北部有一點壓力。我認為這會對事情產生一些影響。但同樣,只要看看前方地帶,如果這種情況持續下去,我們的勘探與生產客戶的所有壓力都會得到緩解,他們的經濟狀況也會開始改善。邁克,你想補充什麼嗎?
James Michael Holcomb - COO
James Michael Holcomb - COO
Yes. I think your concept is probably right. If you look at a hotter basin like a Permian, if there's some new activity, it's going to be competitive. We really haven't participated in that. We've lost some bids out there, due to price. But I think for us, it's been pretty stable across the markets because -- it's not going to change that work if it's not in the range that we're looking for.
是的。我認為你的想法可能是正確的。如果你看看像二疊紀這樣更熱的盆地,如果有一些新的活動,它就會具有競爭力。我們確實沒有參與其中。由於價格原因,我們失去了一些出價。但我認為對我們來說,它在整個市場上都相當穩定,因為——如果它不在我們正在尋找的範圍內,它就不會改變這項工作。
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
When you're a large drilling contractor and you work a large number of rigs, when you lose a few like we've had, and we're only down about 12% since the beginning of the year on our projections. That's not a huge move for us. If you're a smaller drilling contractor, and you lose the same number of rigs. That's a big hit and you've got to work hard to keep rigs working at that point. We get that there's competitive bids out there for rigs, but we don't chase that.
當您是一家大型鑽井承包商並且您使用大量鑽機時,當您像我們一樣失去一些鑽機時,我們的預測自今年年初以來僅下降了約 12%。這對我們來說並不是一個巨大的舉動。如果您是較小的鑽井承包商,並且您會失去相同數量的鑽機。這是一個巨大的打擊,你必須努力工作才能讓鑽機在那時保持運轉。我們了解到鑽機的競標存在競爭性,但我們不會追逐這一點。
Keith MacKey - Analyst
Keith MacKey - Analyst
Got it. Makes sense. And just a follow-up on the pressure pumping side. Can you talk a little bit about the timing you expect for the Tier 4 dual fuel conversion to be in the field? Like should we be thinking about Q4 as a full quarter of 12 spreads? Or will that be partially through the quarter, what do you say?
知道了。說得通。這只是壓力泵方面的後續工作。您能否談談您預計 Tier 4 雙燃料轉換投入使用的時間?就像我們應該將第四季度視為 12 個利差的完整季度嗎?或者這會部分持續到本季度,您怎麼說?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
I would think about it as Q4. It does take a little bit of time. And sometimes when we mobilize one of those, we may still be adding some more of the Tier 4 dual-fuel trailers while we started the work, but I still think about it as Q4.
我會認為這是第四季度。這確實需要一點時間。有時,當我們動員其中一輛時,我們可能仍在開始工作時添加更多 Tier 4 雙燃料拖車,但我仍然將其視為第四季度。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Saurabh Pant of Bank of America.
你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Saurabh Pant。
Saurabh Pant - VP
Saurabh Pant - VP
I guess I'll start with maybe a follow-up on your expectation for rig count because it seems like there is some optimism that the industry might be adding rigs towards the latter part of this year. Just to get some clarity or clarification on that. It sounds like that optimism is more on the oil side and the gas side of activity rebound is more of a 2024 thing, right? I just wanted to clarify on that, if that's correct. And then what is driving that? Is it more public versus private? Or how should we think about who's driving that uptick in the latter part of this year?
我想我會首先跟進您對鑽機數量的預期,因為似乎有一些樂觀情緒認為該行業可能會在今年下半年增加鑽機。只是為了對此進行澄清或澄清。聽起來石油方面的樂觀情緒更多,而天然氣方面的活動反彈更多是 2024 年的事情,對嗎?我只是想澄清一下,如果這是正確的。那麼是什麼推動了這一點呢?是公共的還是私人的?或者我們應該如何思考誰在推動今年下半年的增長?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
I'm actually upbeat on both oil and gas when you look at Q4 and you look at where the forward strip is, we do actually have some gas customers that will probably drill into where that forward strip is. We've got gas customers today that are already layering in hedges for next year at over $4. So while oil is certainly in a good spot right now, and I'm upbeat on that, I'm upbeat on both.
事實上,當你看看第四季度和前方地帶的位置時,我對石油和天然氣都持樂觀態度,我們實際上確實有一些天然氣客戶可能會鑽探前方地帶的位置。今天,我們的天然氣客戶已經以超過 4 美元的價格為明年進行了分層套期保值。因此,雖然石油目前確實處於一個良好的位置,而且我對此感到樂觀,但我對兩者都持樂觀態度。
C. Andrew Smith - Executive VP & CFO
C. Andrew Smith - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, I think we've had conversations in some of the gas basins for Q4 start-ups there for next year's programs, but they'll get started a little bit early, and so I think we're seeing it both. And on the question on the publics and privates, I would just say, the way to think about that is the privates typically react a little quicker in either direction. So I wouldn't be surprised to (inaudible) that maybe Q4 they may outpace the publics, but there's going to be a smaller switch. So it's -- I'm not sure we can really call it, but I think there's generally privates, they react a little quicker.
是的,我認為我們已經在一些天然氣盆地為明年第四季度的初創企業進行了對話,但他們會提前一點開始,所以我認為我們都看到了。關於公共部門和私人部門的問題,我只想說,思考這個問題的方式是,私人部門通常在任一方向上反應更快一些。因此,我不會感到驚訝(聽不清),也許第四季度他們可能會超過公眾,但會有一個較小的轉變。所以它是——我不確定我們是否真的可以這麼稱呼它,但我認為一般都是私人的,他們的反應更快一些。
Saurabh Pant - VP
Saurabh Pant - VP
Right, right, Okay. No, perfect. That's very helpful. And then maybe a quick follow-up on the pressure pumping side. You commented on activity 11 spreads in the third quarter going back to 12 in the fourth quarter. How should we think about that from an entering 2024 perspective? Because earlier in the year, you had contemplated doing a 13th frac spread out in the market. I know the merger with NexTier is outstanding, so that might change dynamics, right? But how should we think about 2024, potentially could you be adding that 13th frac spread if there's demand?
對對對,好的。沒有十全十美的。這非常有幫助。然後可能會在壓力泵方面進行快速跟進。您評論說,第三季度的活動 11 利差在第四季度回到了 12。從進入2024年的角度來看,我們應該如何思考這一點?因為今年早些時候,您曾考慮在市場上進行第 13 次壓裂。我知道與 NexTier 的合併非常出色,因此這可能會改變動態,對嗎?但我們應該如何看待 2024 年,如果有需求,您是否可以增加第 13 次壓裂價差?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
Listen, I appreciate that question, but it's tough to talk about 2024 yet. We'll address that on the next call when we're looking at a much larger fleet of over 40 frac spreads.
聽著,我很欣賞這個問題,但現在還很難談論 2024 年。我們將在下次電話會議中討論這個問題,當時我們正在研究擁有超過 40 種壓裂價差的更大規模的船隊。
Saurabh Pant - VP
Saurabh Pant - VP
Okay. No, I guess I've got a little carried away with all that optimism. Thank you, I'll turn it back.
好的。不,我想我有點被這些樂觀情緒沖昏了頭腦。謝謝你,我會轉回來的。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Jim Rollyson of Raymond James.
您的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Jim Rollyson。
James Michael Rollyson - Director of Oilfield Services
James Michael Rollyson - Director of Oilfield Services
On the CapEx front, Andy, the remaining $485 million, is that relatively spread out over the back half? Or is it kind of distributed differently than evenly?
在資本支出方面,Andy,剩餘的 4.85 億美元,是否相對分散在後半部分?或者它的分佈是否與均勻分佈不同?
C. Andrew Smith - Executive VP & CFO
C. Andrew Smith - Executive VP & CFO
No, it's pretty spread out over the back half. A lot of that's -- Again, a lot of that is -- as we've come back and some activities falling off, we've seen some maintenance cap come back. Some of the growth items that we had in there were sort of committed now we'll push a few out a little bit, but it should be pretty spread over the back half of the year.
不,它在後半部分相當分散。其中很多是——同樣,很多是——隨著我們回來並且一些活動減少,我們看到一些維護上限回來了。我們已經承諾了一些增長項目,現在我們將稍微推出一些項目,但它應該會在今年下半年相當分散。
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
And I know this will be a tough question, but as you think about where you're looking at activity based on the kind of optimistic view heading into next year. If you were talking apples and apples, do you think your CapEx next year would be flattish from this year or down just because you're not going to be reactivating a number of rigs like you did in 2023? I realize all that would...
我知道這將是一個棘手的問題,但當你根據明年的樂觀觀點來考慮你正在關注的活動時。如果你在談論蘋果和蘋果,你認為你明年的資本支出會與今年持平還是下降,只是因為你不會像 2023 年那樣重新激活一些鑽機?我意識到這一切都會...
C. Andrew Smith - Executive VP & CFO
C. Andrew Smith - Executive VP & CFO
Well, I mean, look, it depends -- Maintenance CapEx will be what it is, right? I mean it's obviously linear with activity. On the growth side, again, as we put rigs back to work, it depends on your point of view as to where you think the rig count is going ultimately in 2024 as to whether or not we would need any kind of significant upgrade. Remember that a lot of the upgrades that we were doing this year were paid for by our customers in advance last year. And now we don't get to show that amount net. We show that amount in gross, in terms of our CapEx. So again, depending upon your point of view going forward, you can probably see it being something less on the growth side than what you would typically see or what you have seen in the typical last few years.
嗯,我的意思是,看,這取決於——維護資本支出將是這樣,對吧?我的意思是它顯然與活動呈線性關係。同樣,在增長方面,當我們讓鑽機重新投入使用時,這取決於您對 2024 年鑽機數量最終走向的看法,以及我們是否需要任何形式的重大升級。請記住,我們今年進行的許多升級都是由我們的客戶在去年提前支付的。現在我們無法顯示該淨金額。我們以資本支出的形式顯示該金額。因此,根據您對未來的看法,您可能會看到它的增長程度低於您通常看到的或過去幾年的典型情況。
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
Yes. And especially considering some of these rigs [we've] worked recently, there's not as much CapEx necessary to put them back to work. So I think considering -- if you're considering an inverse curve on activity moving up in '24 versus what we had softening in '23, then I think CapEx would be level to maybe even a little bit lower. So I think we can be really efficient next year. Apples to apples.
是的。特別是考慮到我們最近工作過的一些鑽機,讓它們恢復工作所需的資本支出並不多。因此,我認為,如果您正在考慮 24 年活動上升與 23 年疲軟的反向曲線,那麼我認為資本支出將處於水平,甚至可能會更低一些。所以我認為明年我們會變得非常高效。蘋果對蘋果。
James Michael Rollyson - Director of Oilfield Services
James Michael Rollyson - Director of Oilfield Services
Makes sense. And then last thing, just kind of following up on pressure pumping. Obviously, you talked about (inaudible) in general, and carrying some extra costs as you drop a fleet, which has obviously impacted profitability. Has there been any material change? Like what have you seen from a pricing and kind of commercial terms dynamic in this kind of air pocket of activity here recently?
說得通。最後一件事,就是跟進壓力泵。顯然,您總體上談到了(聽不清),並在放棄機隊時承擔了一些額外成本,這顯然影響了盈利能力。有任何實質性變化嗎?就像您最近從這種空穴來風的活動中動態的定價和商業條款中看到了什麼?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
Well, we've seen the dedicated pricing hold up relatively well, maybe some small adjustments for some customers, but not a lot, but it's really the spot market that's come down maybe 30% or so. But that's it's the spot and it's temporary. And if activity is increasing like we think later in the year and into next year, that will reverse as well.
嗯,我們看到專用定價保持得相對較好,可能對某些客戶來說有一些小調整,但幅度不大,但實際上是現貨市場,下降了 30% 左右。但這就是地點,而且是暫時的。如果活動像我們想像的那樣在今年晚些時候和明年增加,那麼情況也會發生逆轉。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from John Daniel of Daniel Energy Partners.
您的下一個問題來自 Daniel Energy Partners 的 John Daniel。
John Daniel
John Daniel
Just one question for you today, and when you think of all of the E&P M&A that we've seen where buyers rationalize activity, it would seem getting back to the activity highs, if you will, of late '22 might be tough to do in '24? I'm just curious if you're seeing anything that would sort of dispute that theory.
今天只有一個問題要問你,當你想到我們所看到的所有勘探與生產併購活動時,買家都在合理化活動,如果你願意的話,回到 22 世紀末的活動高點似乎很難做到在'24?我只是好奇你是否看到任何與這個理論有爭議的東西。
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
We are seeing some mergers on the E&P side, but at the same time, we're seeing some E&Ps sell off some of their properties too and some smaller companies come into play, where they've got to prove up that acreage. And so I do think the rig count has a chance to get back to the highs of this year. As you know, the rig count never moves up at the same rate it comes down, but that doesn't mean it can't get back to where it was. I think there's enough people with interest to drill out there even with the mergers to get back to where we were.
我們看到勘探與生產方面進行了一些合併,但與此同時,我們看到一些勘探與生產公司也出售了一些資產,一些較小的公司開始發揮作用,他們必須證明自己的面積。因此,我確實認為鑽機數量有機會回到今年的高點。如您所知,鑽機數量的增長速度永遠不會與下降速度相同,但這並不意味著它無法回到原來的水平。我認為有足夠多的人有興趣在那裡鑽研,即使合併也能回到我們原來的狀態。
John Daniel
John Daniel
Okay. Got it. And I'm going to try to rephrase this straight away. Let's say E&P A buys a company B and they (inaudible) drop a bunch of rigs, are you seeing that E&P A person coming back in wanting to add back any of those rigs that they stated they were going to drop? You follow that example?
好的。知道了。我將嘗試立即重新表述這一點。假設 E&P A 收購了 B 公司,他們(聽不清)放棄了一堆鑽機,您是否看到 E&P A 人員回來想要重新添加他們聲稱要放棄的那些鑽機?你效仿那個例子嗎?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
Yes, I don't know if I have a good example of that for us.
是的,我不知道我是否能為我們提供一個很好的例子。
John Daniel
John Daniel
Fair enough. Okay. That's all.
很公平。好的。就這樣。
Operator
Operator
Your next question is from Dan Kutz of Morgan Stanley.
您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的丹·庫茨。
Daniel Robert Kutz - Research Associate
Daniel Robert Kutz - Research Associate
Maybe I'll just follow up on John's first question there. Thinking about 2024 activity and whether or not it could get to the highs of this year, would you kind of frame gas activity as having a better chance of getting back to this year's levels with all of the LNG liquefaction capacity coming online? Or I guess, how would you frame whether gas or oil or both have a better chance of kind of getting back to this year's highs?
也許我會跟進約翰的第一個問題。考慮到 2024 年的活動以及它是否能夠達到今年的高點,您是否認為隨著所有液化天然氣液化產能的上線,天然氣活動更有可能回到今年的水平?或者我猜,您如何判斷天然氣或石油或兩者都有更好的機會回到今年的高點?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
Well, you know it's gas that had the bigger downside earlier in the year, and I think it's gas, it has the upside. I think -- I'm not discounting oil, oil can still move up from where it is in terms of activity, but I think there's more upside on the gas. If you look at some of the E&P transactions, let's say, South Texas, where you've had properties change hands, some of these E&Ps that have acquired some of these properties are now making plans to drill them and we're part of those plans.
嗯,你知道今年早些時候天然氣的下行空間更大,但我認為天然氣也有上行空間。我認為——我不會低估石油,就活動而言,石油仍然可以上漲,但我認為天然氣有更多的上漲空間。如果你看一下一些勘探與生產交易,比如說,在德克薩斯州南部,那裡的財產已經易手,其中一些已經收購了其中一些財產的勘探與生產公司現在正在製定鑽探計劃,而我們也是其中的一部分計劃。
So I still see some upside in gas I don't think of it just as Haynesville. I think of it as the broader basins that are connected to Henry Hub from South Texas all the way to Mid-Con. And so I still think there's more upside on the gas side.
所以我仍然看到天然氣的一些優勢,我不認為它就像海恩斯維爾一樣。我認為它是更廣闊的盆地,從德克薩斯州南部一直連接到中部地區的亨利樞紐。所以我仍然認為天然氣方面還有更多的好處。
Daniel Robert Kutz - Research Associate
Daniel Robert Kutz - Research Associate
Got it. Understood. And then just on the 50% total shareholder return target, apologies if you guys have already made this clear, but I understand that once the deal is closed that you guys and NexTier have endorsed that target moving forward. But are we to understand that Patterson is still maintaining that target kind of in the second half of this year as the two deals are slotted to close? Or could M&A interrupt that 50% target in the second half of this year?
知道了。明白了。然後,就 50% 的股東總回報目標而言,如果你們已經明確表示這一點,我們深表歉意,但據我了解,一旦交易完成,你們和 NexTier 就已經認可了該目標的推進。但我們是否可以理解,隨著這兩筆交易預計將完成,帕特森在今年下半年仍將維持這一目標?或者併購是否會打亂今年下半年 50% 的目標?
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
Well, what we've said all along is our intent is to return 50% of the free cash flow to the shareholders, and we don't -- we think of it more on an annualized basis. And whether you take that as the starting point from when we first said it in October last year, you take it from the start of this year, we're ahead of the schedule, depending on it doesn't matter where you take your starting point. So we've already given back more than 50% of the cash to the shareholders on an annualized basis. And so we're ahead of that. But I wouldn't worry about the M&A disrupting that. And certainly going forward, with the combination of NexTier , we still intend to return 50% of the free cash flow to shareholders.
嗯,我們一直在說的是,我們的目的是將 50% 的自由現金流返還給股東,但我們沒有——我們更多地是在年化基礎上考慮這一點。無論你從去年10月我們第一次說的時候開始,還是從今年年初開始,我們都提前了,這取決於你從哪裡開始並不重要觀點。所以我們已經按年化方式向股東返還了超過50%的現金。所以我們處於領先地位。但我不擔心併購會擾亂這一點。當然,展望未來,隨著 NexTier 的合併,我們仍然打算將 50% 的自由現金流返還給股東。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Andy Hendricks for closing remarks.
目前沒有其他問題。我現在將把電話轉給安迪·亨德里克斯進行總結髮言。
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
William Andrew Hendricks - President, CEO & Director
Great. I want to thank everybody who have dialed into the Patterson-UTI call this morning. We're excited about great things that are happening in the future, and our call is going to look very different next time. But thanks again for dialing in.
偉大的。我要感謝今天早上撥打帕特森-UTI 電話的所有人。我們對未來發生的偉大事情感到興奮,下次我們的電話將會看起來非常不同。但再次感謝您撥通電話。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。