PRA Group Inc (PRAA) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the PRA Group's Q4 2022 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Najim Mostamand, Vice President of Investor Relations for PRA Group. Please go ahead, sir.

下午好，歡迎來到 PRA Group 的 2022 年第四季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給 PRA Group 投資者關係副總裁 Najim Mostamand 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you. Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. With me are Kevin Stevenson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Pete Graham, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。大家晚上好，感謝您今天加入我們。和我一起的是總裁兼首席執行官凱文·史蒂文森 (Kevin Stevenson)；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Pete Graham。

We will make forward-looking statements during the call, which are based on management's current beliefs, projections, assumptions and expectations. We assume no obligation to revise or update these statements. We caution listeners that these forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our expectations.

我們將在電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於管理層當前的信念、預測、假設和期望。我們不承擔修改或更新這些聲明的義務。我們提醒聽眾，這些前瞻性陳述受風險、不確定性、假設和其他因素的影響，這些因素可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預期存在重大差異。

Please refer to the earnings press release and our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of these factors. The earnings release, the slide presentation that we will use during today's call and our SEC filings can all be found on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.pragroup.com. Additionally, a replay of this call will be available shortly after its conclusion, and the replay dial-in information is included in the earnings press release.

有關這些因素的詳細討論，請參閱收益新聞稿和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件。我們將在今天的電話會議中使用的收益發布、幻燈片演示以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件都可以在我們網站 www.pragroup.com 的投資者關係部分找到。此外，此次電話會議結束後不久將提供重播，重播撥入信息包含在收益新聞稿中。

All comparisons mentioned today will be between Q4 2022 and Q4 2021, unless otherwise noted, and our Americas results include Australia. During our call, we will discuss adjusted EBITDA and debt-to-adjusted EBITDA for the years ended December 31, 2022, and December 31, 2021. Please refer to today's earnings release and the appendix of the slide presentation used during this call for a reconciliation of the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP financial measures to these non-GAAP financial measures.

除非另有說明，否則今天提到的所有比較都將在 2022 年第四季度和 2021 年第四季度之間進行，我們的美洲結果包括澳大利亞。在我們的電話會議中，我們將討論截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日和 2021 年 12 月 31 日止年度的調整後 EBITDA 和債務調整後 EBITDA。請參閱今天的收益發布和本次電話會議中使用的幻燈片演示的附錄，了解最直接可比的美國 GAAP 財務指標與這些非 GAAP 財務指標的調節。

And with that, I'd now like to turn the call over to Kevin Stevenson, our President and Chief Executive Officer.

有了這個，我現在想把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官凱文史蒂文森。

Well, thank you, Najim, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this evening. 2022 was certainly not a normal year and we witnessed inflation around the world reach multi-decade records. The dollar reached heights not seen since the start of the millennium; the people of Ukraine standing in defense from a Russian invasion and countries continue to grapple with the challenges of COVID-19.

好吧，謝謝你，Najim，也謝謝大家今晚加入我們。 2022 年當然不是正常的一年，我們目睹了世界各地的通貨膨脹達到了數十年的記錄。美元達到了千禧年以來的最高水平；烏克蘭人民抵禦俄羅斯入侵，各國繼續應對 COVID-19 的挑戰。

Like in many other times during PRA's long history, we've successfully navigated these challenges and even more so, we've been able to continue positioning ourselves for the opportunities these challenges often bring such as increased portfolio of supply. As I've said often, it's economic downturns where we actually become more relevant and important to the global economy. Banks and other creditors generally remove charged-off loans from their balance sheets fairly quickly, typically 6 months here in the U.S.

與 PRA 悠久歷史中的許多其他時期一樣，我們已經成功應對了這些挑戰，更重要的是，我們能夠繼續為這些挑戰經常帶來的機遇做好準備，例如增加供應組合。正如我經常說的那樣，在經濟低迷時期，我們實際上對全球經濟變得更加相關和重要。銀行和其他債權人通常會相當快地從資產負債表中刪除已註銷的貸款，在美國通常需要 6 個月。

However, we are able to take a long-term view, so we can purchase those nonperforming loans and help creditors recoup some of the value. This keeps lending options open, especially when creditors are otherwise preparing to be more conservative. We then use this long-term view with our customers and work to resolve their accounts in an affordable fashion. 2023 is shaping up to be another important year for PRA Group as we progress along the consumer credit cycle and prepare for the anticipated increase in supply.

但是，我們能夠放眼長遠，因此我們可以購買那些不良貸款並幫助債權人收回部分價值。這使貸款選擇保持開放，尤其是當債權人準備以其他方式變得更加保守時。然後，我們將這種長期觀點與我們的客戶一起使用，並努力以負擔得起的方式解決他們的問題。 2023 年將成為 PRA 集團又一個重要的一年，因為我們沿著消費信貸週期前進，並為預期的供應增加做準備。

But before we turn our attention to the remaining year ahead, I want to recognize a few milestones we celebrated in 2022. So first and foremost, we celebrated our 20th anniversary as a publicly traded company by ringing the closing bell at NASDAQ in Times Square. It's hard for me to process 2 decades that past since we went public in 2002. And I'm proud to have been part of the maturation of not only the industry but of our company.

但在我們將注意力轉向未來一年之前，我想確認一下我們在 2022 年慶祝的幾個里程碑。因此，首先，我們在時代廣場的納斯達克敲響了收市鐘，慶祝我們作為一家上市公司成立 20 週年。自從我們 2002 年上市以來，我很難回憶起過去的 2 年。我很自豪能夠成為行業乃至我們公司成熟的一部分。

When I look at what we've accomplished as a team, I am -- I'm truly amazed. Since our IPO, we've grown ERC from $200 million to over $5 billion. We've grown revenue from $56 million to nearly $1 billion. We've grown net income from $11 million to $117 million. And we've taken this company from a small player in the U.S. to one of the world's largest purchasers of NPLs with portfolios in 18 countries around the globe. And speaking of our global presence, we also celebrated our tenth year of operations in the U.K., which is where we started our European journey.

當我看到我們作為一個團隊所取得的成就時，我真的很驚訝。自首次公開募股以來，我們已將 ERC 從 2 億美元增長到超過 50 億美元。我們的收入從 5600 萬美元增長到近 10 億美元。我們的淨收入從 1100 萬美元增加到 1.17 億美元。我們已經將這家公司從美國的一家小公司發展成為全球最大的不良貸款購買者之一，其投資組合遍及全球 18 個國家/地區。談到我們的全球業務，我們還慶祝了在英國開展業務的第十個年頭，這是我們開始歐洲之旅的地方。

Back then, we were mostly a U.S.-centric debt buyer who invested in a small debt buyer and servicer in Kilmarnock, Scotland. That then led to further expansion across Europe in 2014 and beyond. Along the way, we had a philosophy to be one team not just the U.S. company with some European satellites. It took some time and effort. However, we've been able to integrate our company into one PRA. I was reminded that just recently, when I visited our Kilmarnock office, celebrating our tenth anniversary, alongside local leadership, employees and community partners. Remarkably, 40 members of our Kilmarnock team have now been with the company since before the acquisition. And the U.K. is our second largest market, and we're proud to have grown our presence not only there but across Europe over this past decade.

當時，我們主要是一家以美國為中心的債務買家，他們投資於蘇格蘭基爾馬諾克的一家小型債務買家和服務商。這導致 2014 年及以後在歐洲進一步擴張。一路走來，我們的理念是成為一個團隊，而不僅僅是擁有一些歐洲衛星的美國公司。這花了一些時間和精力。但是，我們已經能夠將我們的公司整合到一個 PRA 中。就在最近，當我訪問我們的基爾馬諾克辦公室，與當地領導、員工和社區合作夥伴一起慶祝我們成立十週年時，我想起了這一點。值得注意的是，我們 Kilmarnock 團隊的 40 名成員自收購前就已經在公司工作。英國是我們的第二大市場，我們很自豪在過去十年中不僅在那里而且在整個歐洲都擴大了我們的影響力。

Our European operation has been a shining star for us. But if you think back to 2016 to 2018, we were very vocal and transparent about the competitive landscape in Europe. In addition to numerous conference calls, I remember attending a conference and commenting about the irrational pricing and the fact that competitors are making landgrabs.

我們的歐洲業務一直是我們的一顆閃亮之星。但如果你回想一下 2016 年到 2018 年，我們對歐洲的競爭格局非常坦率和透明。除了無數次電話會議外，我還記得參加過一次會議，並對不合理的定價和競爭對手搶地盤的事實發表評論。

But instead of getting caught up in the market, we remain disciplined and purchased only what we could do so profitably. At that same conference, I said, many companies would have pulled out or downsized during times like those. And we did the opposite. We leaned in. We invested heavily in digital, data analytics and our workforce. Now all of this set us up for a successful year in 2019, which we built on through today.

但是，我們沒有陷入市場，而是保持紀律，只購買我們可以從中獲利的東西。在同一個會議上，我說，在那樣的時期，許多公司會退出或縮減規模。而我們卻反其道而行之。我們靠了進去。我們在數字、數據分析和我們的員工隊伍方面投入了大量資金。現在，所有這一切都為我們在 2019 年取得成功奠定了基礎，我們一直堅持到今天。

In 2022, our European collections were 113% of our December 31, 2021 CECL curves while at the same time, we achieved record cash efficiency in Europe. These and other achievements are reflective of nearly 3 decades of success, and they're the result of constant planning, setting goals, achieving those goals and raising the bar even higher. This brings me now to how we executed against our strategic objectives in 2022. So first, we continue to expand our products and market share. A key component of this objective is to be more geographically diversified as seen most prominently in our growth in Europe.

2022 年，我們在歐洲的收款是 2021 年 12 月 31 日 CECL 曲線的 113%，與此同時，我們在歐洲實現了創紀錄的現金效率。這些和其他成就反映了近 3 年的成功，它們是不斷規劃、設定目標、實現這些目標並提高標準的結果。現在讓我談談我們如何執行 2022 年的戰略目標。首先，我們繼續擴大我們的產品和市場份額。這一目標的一個關鍵組成部分是在地理上更加多元化，這在我們在歐洲的增長中最為突出。

We achieved record cash collections in 2022 on a constant currency adjusted basis. This represents consecutive growth in each of the 10 years that we've operated in Europe. Throughout the year, we also invested in all but 1 of our operational markets. Alongside continued strong performance in the U.K., we're especially pleased with our developments in other parts of Europe, particularly the Nordics. We also purchased the test portfolios in -- of new products in Europe. These investments have given us important data that could expand our addressable market and provide opportunities for growth.

我們在 2022 年按固定匯率調整的基礎上實現了創紀錄的現金收款。這代表了我們在歐洲經營的 10 年中每一年的連續增長。全年，我們還投資了除一個運營市場以外的所有市場。除了在英國的持續強勁表現外，我們對我們在歐洲其他地區，尤其是北歐地區的發展感到特別滿意。我們還在歐洲購買了新產品的測試組合。這些投資為我們提供了重要數據，可以擴大我們的目標市場並提供增長機會。

Looking beyond Europe. 2022 also represented the first full year of collections in Australia. Since we began purchasing nonperforming loans there in 2021, we scaled up our team, and locked in some important forward flows, while successfully collecting on the portfolios we purchased. It's still early days, but I am more than pleased with the progress we made thus far. We also continue to evaluate M&A opportunities across our core business and adjacencies to drive growth and diversification.

放眼歐洲以外。 2022 年也是澳大利亞收藏的第一個完整年份。自 2021 年我們開始在那裡購買不良貸款以來，我們擴大了團隊規模，鎖定了一些重要的遠期資金，同時成功收回了我們購買的投資組合。現在還為時尚早，但我對我們迄今取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們還繼續評估我們核心業務和相鄰業務的併購機會，以推動增長和多元化。

Last year, we hired a new Head of Corporate Development to help us evaluate opportunities that either enhance our existing footprint, give us new skills or capabilities, provide access to new creditor relationships and data or allow us to enter a new market. Along with purchasing more portfolios, we see M&A as another lever we can pull to drive long-term shareholder value. We are being very strategic and very disciplined in our approach, while making sure that we are well positioned to quickly pursue the right opportunity when it materializes.

去年，我們聘請了一位新的企業發展主管來幫助我們評估機會，這些機會可以增強我們現有的足跡，為我們提供新的技能或能力，提供對新債權人關係和數據的訪問，或者讓我們進入一個新市場。除了購買更多的投資組合，我們將併購視為我們可以推動長期股東價值的另一個槓桿。我們的方法非常具有戰略性和紀律性，同時確保我們處於有利地位，可以在合適的機會出現時迅速抓住它。

The next objective is focused on modernizing our collections and improving efficiency at all levels. We're always leveraging our data and analytics to improve our predictive scoring models, test new data sources and optimize our various collection channels. Our digital platform is now established in all of our operational markets and it continues to drive a significant portion of total collections.

下一個目標側重於使我們的館藏現代化並提高各級效率。我們一直在利用我們的數據和分析來改進我們的預測評分模型、測試新的數據源並優化我們的各種收集渠道。我們的數字平台現已在我們所有的運營市場建立起來，並繼續推動總收藏量的很大一部分。

Since 2019, global digital collections have increased over 80%. Not only has digital helped us collect more efficiently and cost effectively, but it's also given our customers a greater level of control that was previously unheard of in our industry. In the U.S., digital collections have increased 25% since 2019. We continue to build out our internal legal capabilities, shifting more accounts from external attorneys to our internal legal department and this has helped improve efficiency and increase our data knowledge.

自 2019 年以來，全球數字館藏增長超過 80%。數字技術不僅幫助我們更高效、更經濟地收款，而且還為我們的客戶提供了更高級別的控制，這在我們的行業中是前所未有的。在美國，數字館藏自 2019 年以來增長了 25%。我們繼續建設內部法律能力，將更多客戶從外部律師轉移到我們的內部法律部門，這有助於提高效率並增加我們的數據知識。

Domestic call center productivity also increased compared to 2019 as we recognize the benefits of recent improvements in scoring and analytics. When you combine that with the growth in digital, this has resulted in fewer collectors being needed.

與 2019 年相比，國內呼叫中心的生產力也有所提高，因為我們認識到最近在評分和分析方面的改進帶來的好處。當您將其與數字技術的增長結合起來時，這將導致需要更少的收藏家。

In Europe, we revamped our customer payment websites and increased our digital collections and achieved record efficiency. These accomplishments are the product of the work we've done over the past few years to invest in digital platforms, infrastructure, automation and integration into supporting systems.

在歐洲，我們改進了客戶支付網站並增加了我們的數字收款並實現了創紀錄的效率。這些成就是我們過去幾年在數字平台、基礎設施、自動化和支持系統集成方面所做工作的成果。

Our third strategic objective is to be a recognized and trusted brand. We continue to increase our interactions with regulators and elected officials to control our own narrative. Since 2018, we have invested significantly in government relations. We now have a seat at the table. Key stakeholders proactively contact us to seek our opinions. Over the past year, we've met with more than 300 local, state and federal legislators and their staff. We've tracked hundreds of bills and proactively worked on dozens that would have an impact on our industry.

我們的第三個戰略目標是成為一個公認和值得信賴的品牌。我們繼續增加與監管機構和民選官員的互動，以控制我們自己的敘述。自 2018 年以來，我們在政府關係方面投入了大量資金。我們現在就座了。主要利益相關方主動聯繫我們徵求意見。在過去的一年裡，我們會見了 300 多名地方、州和聯邦立法者及其工作人員。我們已經跟踪了數百項法案，並積極處理了數十項可能對我們行業產生影響的法案。

Our work has enabled us to build meaningful relationships, create and leverage coalitions and influence impactful legislation. And finally, our fourth strategic objective is fostering a high-performing workforce. Our employees drive our success, and we continue to respond to their needs and whether that's designing and building financial literary programs, launching employee resource group that hundreds of employees already participated in, and on a personal note, continuing my weekly dialogues to hear directly from our employees to better understand their needs.

我們的工作使我們能夠建立有意義的關係，創建和利用聯盟並影響有影響力的立法。最後，我們的第四個戰略目標是培養高績效的員工隊伍。我們的員工推動了我們的成功，我們繼續響應他們的需求，無論是設計和構建金融文學計劃，啟動數百名員工已經參與的員工資源組，並在個人筆記上，繼續我的每週對話以直接聽取我們的員工更好地了解他們的需求。

In 2022, we continue to serve the communities where we work and live around the world through donations and volunteer efforts. And I'm proud of our employees and their generosity and their heart for giving. Their efforts bring to life the values that make our company great. We are really 1 company, 1 team worldwide.

2022 年，我們將繼續通過捐贈和志願者活動為我們在世界各地工作和生活的社區提供服務。我為我們的員工以及他們的慷慨和奉獻之心感到自豪。他們的努力使我們公司的價值觀栩栩如生。我們實際上是 1 家公司，1 個全球團隊。

Now turning to Q4. Total cash collections were $392 million globally, a 17% decrease year-over-year or a 13% decrease on a constant currency adjusted basis. This decrease was primarily driven by lower portfolio purchases in '21 and 2022 due to just the overall lower volumes of portfolios offered for sale. As you may remember, the excess consumer liquidity of 2020 and 2021 drove U.S. delinquency and charge-off rates to historic loans. This reduced the number and size of portfolios available for sale over the past couple of years.

現在轉向第四季度。全球現金回收總額為 3.92 億美元，同比下降 17%，按固定匯率調整後下降 13%。這一下降主要是由於 21 年和 2022 年投資組合購買量減少所致，原因是待售投資組合的整體數量減少。您可能還記得，2020 年和 2021 年過剩的消費者流動性將美國的拖欠率和沖銷率推高至歷史最高水平。這減少了過去幾年可供出售的投資組合的數量和規模。

We believe this trend may be starting to reverse as demonstrated by our higher purchasing this quarter. But the low level of supply in recent quarters certainly has impacted our collection results. Net income for the quarter was $16 million. Quarterly portfolio purchases were $288 million, up 43% year-over-year and representing the highest quarterly amount since Q3 2021. 56% of those purchases were in Europe.

我們認為這一趨勢可能開始逆轉，本季度我們更高的採購量就證明了這一點。但最近幾個季度的低供應量肯定影響了我們的收款結果。該季度的淨收入為 1600 萬美元。季度投資組合購買額為 2.88 億美元，同比增長 43%，是自 2021 年第三季度以來的最高季度金額。其中 56% 的購買額在歐洲。

Taking a closer look at our purchases this quarter, we invested $128 million in the Americas, which represented a sequential increase in purchases for the third quarter in a row. So after a few quarters of consistent supply and pricing, there appear to be more signs suggesting credit normalization in the U.S. Our existing forward flows of fresh paper, we started to see small but constant month-to-month increases in the volume in the fourth quarter, and this trend has continued through February.

仔細看看我們本季度的採購，我們在美洲投資了 1.28 億美元，這是連續第三個季度採購量連續增長。因此，在幾個季度的穩定供應和定價之後，似乎有更多跡象表明美國信貸正常化。我們現有的新票據遠期流動，我們開始看到第四季度的交易量出現小幅但逐月穩定增長季度，這種趨勢一直持續到 2 月份。

In addition, as banks are releasing their metrics around delinquencies, charge-offs and loan provisioning, we're seeing continued credit normalization. In Europe, we invested $161 million during the quarter. We invested in every operational market except for one, including some markets where we haven't purchased them some time. We deployed $407 million in portfolio purchases throughout the year, and we also saw an uptick in returns on portfolios that we purchased in Q4.

此外，隨著銀行發布有關拖欠、註銷和貸款撥備的指標，我們看到信貸持續正常化。在歐洲，我們在本季度投資了 1.61 億美元。我們投資了除一個以外的每個運營市場，包括一些我們有一段時間沒有購買它們的市場。我們全年部署了 4.07 億美元的投資組合購買，我們還看到我們在第四季度購買的投資組合的回報率有所上升。

The competition in Europe can vary greatly by market, but we're encouraged by our wins in 2022. So a few comments about some of our markets. The U.K. market has not seen an increase in charge-offs and thus limiting fresh supply. This has caused more competition in recent quarters. However, we've been successful in that market due to the significant flows we've secured and the relationships we have with major sellers.

歐洲的競爭因市場而異，但我們對 2022 年的勝利感到鼓舞。因此，請對我們的一些市場發表一些評論。英國市場沒有看到註銷的增加，從而限制了新的供應。這在最近幾個季度引起了更多競爭。然而，由於我們獲得的大量流量以及我們與主要賣家的關係，我們在該市場取得了成功。

In Spain, a market that we've been very vocal regarding elevated pricing, we've remained disciplined. However, we did purchase a couple of portfolios there in Q4 and hope this is a sign of things changing in that market. Lastly, the Nordics market have continued to be increasingly important for us. In 2022, they represented nearly 30% of our European purchases, whereas 5 years ago, they only represented 15% of our European purchases. Europe overall has been a strong driver for PRA Group, especially in the last few years. In 2017, our investments in Europe were roughly 25% of total purchases. And now just 5 years later, in 2022, they make up closer to half.

在西班牙這個市場，我們一直對提高定價非常直言不諱，我們一直保持紀律。然而，我們確實在第四季度在那裡購買了幾個投資組合，希望這是該市場發生變化的跡象。最後，北歐市場對我們來說繼續變得越來越重要。 2022 年，它們占我們歐洲採購的近 30%，而 5 年前，它們僅占我們歐洲採購的 15%。整個歐洲一直是 PRA 集團的強大推動力，尤其是在過去幾年。 2017 年，我們在歐洲的投資約佔總採購量的 25%。現在僅僅 5 年後，也就是 2022 年，他們的比例接近一半。

Given our strong balance sheet, access to funding and the fact that we are truly a global debt buyer, we've been able to successfully invest broadly across the globe, which we believe is a key competitive advantage.

鑑於我們強大的資產負債表、融資渠道以及我們真正是全球債務買家這一事實，我們已經能夠在全球範圍內成功地進行廣泛投資，我們認為這是一個關鍵的競爭優勢。

Looking ahead, we expect higher volumes of nonperforming loans in 2023, and this is based on some of the leading economic indicators that we've been frequently sharing. Active U.S. credit card balances, for example, continue to climb and have set a new record since hitting a trough in early 2021. Balances in Q4 2022 exceeded their prepandemic levels by 11%. And certainly, we've all seen the same data. But the question I sometimes get is so why does that matter? If wages are continuing to go up, shouldn't they theoretically help offset the rising credit card balances?

展望未來，我們預計 2023 年的不良貸款數量會增加，這是基於我們經常分享的一些領先經濟指標得出的。例如，活躍的美國信用卡餘額繼續攀升，並創下了自 2021 年初觸及低谷以來的新紀錄。2022 年第四季度的餘額比大流行前水平高出 11%。當然，我們都看到了相同的數據。但我有時會問的問題是，為什麼這很重要？如果工資繼續上漲，理論上它們不應該有助於抵消信用卡餘額的增加嗎？

And you might think so. But actually, that's not the case. This next chart helps to illustrate that.

你可能會這麼認為。但實際上，並非如此。下一張圖表有助於說明這一點。

Even though wages have been increasing, they are not keeping up with the increase in personal expenses. And what's more, is that a bigger portion of disposable income is going towards the consumer' debt. As you can see on this chart, household debt service payments have been trending higher and have reached pre-pandemic levels. For the past few quarters now, we've also seen credit card delinquency rates and more recently, charge-off rates rise from their trough in 2021, and we believe these metrics will continue to trend higher.

儘管工資一直在增長，但跟不上個人開支的增長。更重要的是，更大一部分可支配收入用於支付消費者的債務。正如您在此圖表中看到的那樣，家庭償債支付一直呈上升趨勢，並已達到大流行前的水平。在過去的幾個季度中，我們還看到了信用卡拖欠率，最近，註銷率從 2021 年的低谷上升，我們相信這些指標將繼續呈上升趨勢。

This is increasingly supported by many public banks and other creditors who are continuing to build their reserves and project higher loss rates in 2023. And with that, I'd like to turn things over to Pete to go through our financial results in more detail.

這越來越受到許多公共銀行和其他債權人的支持，他們將繼續建立儲備並預計 2023 年的損失率會更高。因此，我想把事情交給皮特，讓他更詳細地了解我們的財務結果。

Thanks, Kevin. Total revenues were $223 million for the quarter, nearly $1 billion for the full year. Total portfolio revenue was $219 million, with portfolio income of $185 million and changes in expected recoveries of $34 million. During the quarter, we collected $19 million in excess of our expected recoveries which represented consolidated overperformance of 4%, with Europe overperforming by 11%.

謝謝，凱文。本季度總收入為 2.23 億美元，全年收入接近 10 億美元。投資組合總收入為 2.19 億美元，投資組合收入為 1.85 億美元，預期回收變化為 3400 萬美元。在本季度，我們收回了 1900 萬美元，超出了我們的預期回收率，這代表了 4% 的綜合超額表現，其中歐洲超額表現了 11%。

For the full year, we collected $107 million in excess of expected recoveries which represented consolidated overperformance of 5%, with the Americas overperforming slightly and Europe overperforming by 11%. We continue to observe more normalized collections with sustained overperformance in certain vintages. This has given us the confidence to modestly increase our ERC forecast for those vintages, which drove a positive change in estimate of $15 million. Operating expenses for the fourth quarter were $164 million, an $11 million decrease driven primarily by lower expenses in our U.S. business as well as the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against European currencies.

全年，我們收回了 1.07 億美元，超過預期回收率，這代表綜合超額表現 5%，其中美洲略微超額表現，歐洲超額表現 11%。我們繼續觀察在某些年份表現持續超常的更多標準化系列。這使我們有信心適度提高對這些年份的 ERC 預測，這推動了 1500 萬美元的估計值的積極變化。第四季度的運營費用為 1.64 億美元，減少了 1100 萬美元，這主要是由於我們美國業務的費用減少以及美元兌歐洲貨幣走強所致。

Net interest expense for the fourth quarter was $35 million, an increase of $3 million, primarily reflecting increased interest rates. On a consolidated basis, we're roughly 2/3 hedged to fixed rates. So we've mitigated a good portion of the impact of rising rates, but we will continue to feel some impact of higher interest costs going forward. The effective tax rate was 29% for the quarter and 23.8% for the full year, consistent with the guidance of low 20% range we provided on our third quarter call.

第四季度的淨利息支出為 3500 萬美元，增加了 300 萬美元，主要反映了利率上升。在合併的基礎上，我們大約有 2/3 對沖固定利率。因此，我們已經減輕了利率上升的很大一部分影響，但我們將繼續感受到未來更高的利息成本的一些影響。本季度的有效稅率為 29%，全年為 23.8%，與我們在第三季度電話會議上提供的低 20% 範圍內的指引一致。

Net income was $16 million, which generated $0.41 in diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter. And for the full year, net income was $117 million, generating $2.94 in diluted earnings per share. For the quarter, cash collections were $392 million compared to $474 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. Cash collections in the quarter were negatively impacted by $23 million due to the stronger U.S. dollar. For the full year, cash collections were $1.7 billion compared to $2.1 billion in 2021. The decrease was driven by excess consumer liquidity in the prior year, which accelerated collections in 2021, coupled with lower levels of portfolio purchasing in 2021 and 2022 as well as the impact from the strengthening U.S. dollar.

淨收入為 1600 萬美元，第四季度每股攤薄收益為 0.41 美元。全年淨收入為 1.17 億美元，每股攤薄收益為 2.94 美元。本季度現金回款為 3.92 億美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 4.74 億美元。由於美元走強，本季度現金回款受到 2300 萬美元的負面影響。全年現金收款為 17 億美元，而 2021 年為 21 億美元。減少的原因是前一年消費者流動性過剩，2021 年收款速度加快，加上 2021 年和 2022 年的投資組合購買水平較低以及美元走強的影響。

Comparing our full year collections on 2021 and prior vintages to our year-end 2021 ERC projections, Americas was right on target with Europe overperforming by 13%, resulting in consolidated overperformance of 5%. For the quarter, Americas collections were $234 million, a decrease of $61 million. For the full year, Americas collections were $1.1 billion, a decrease of $279 million driven primarily by the excess consumer liquidity of last year and the impact of lower portfolio purchasing.

將我們 2021 年的全年系列和之前的年份與我們 2021 年年底的 ERC 預測進行比較，美洲正好達到了目標，歐洲的表現超出了 13%，導致綜合表現超過 5%。本季度，美洲藏品為 2.34 億美元，減少了 6100 萬美元。全年，美洲藏品為 11 億美元，減少了 2.79 億美元，這主要是由於去年消費者流動性過剩和投資組合購買減少的影響。

We have experienced some early underperformance in the 2021 vintage in Americas Core. This was driven by Brazil, where we took a write-down earlier in the year as well as softer collections in the U.S. Core vintage, which we've been monitoring. This could be driven somewhat by inflation or by other factors as this vintage includes the cohort of consumers whose accounts were charged off during peak stimulus periods.

我們在 Americas Core 的 2021 年份經歷了一些早期的表現不佳。這是由巴西推動的，我們在今年早些時候對巴西進行了減記，同時我們一直在監測美國核心年份的軟收藏。這可能在某種程度上是由通貨膨脹或其他因素驅動的，因為這個年份包括在刺激高峰期賬戶被註銷的消費者群體。

European cash collections for the quarter decreased 12% but grew 1% on a currency-adjusted basis. For the full year, European collections decreased 8%, but grew 4% on a currency-adjusted basis. The purchases we've made over the last few years, particularly in the Nordics, continue to drive the growth of our European collections. Our cash efficiency ratio was 58.6% for the fourth quarter and 61% for the full year, representing the high end of the full year guidance we provided at the end of the third quarter.

本季度歐洲現金收入下降 12%，但經貨幣調整後增長 1%。全年來看，歐洲收款下降 8%，但經貨幣調整後增長 4%。我們過去幾年的採購，尤其是在北歐的採購，繼續推動我們歐洲系列的增長。我們第四季度的現金效率比率為 58.6%，全年為 61%，代表我們在第三季度末提供的全年指引的高端。

The year-over-year decrease was largely due to lower cash receipts. But it's worth noting that our cash efficiency remained strong and was still higher than pre-pandemic levels. Due to the capacity in our U.S. operation, we believe we can increase our purchases to some degree without increasing the number of collectors. This would positively impact our cash efficiency ratio. So would the ramp in supply we're expecting as we generate more cash and build on the operating efficiency improvements we've made over the past few years. Offsetting this somewhat will be the expected build in our legal collections channel as supply ramps up.

同比下降主要是由於現金收入減少。但值得注意的是，我們的現金效率依然強勁，仍高於大流行前的水平。由於我們在美國的運營能力，我們相信我們可以在一定程度上增加我們的採購量而無需增加收藏家的數量。這將對我們的現金效率比率產生積極影響。隨著我們產生更多現金並建立在我們過去幾年所取得的運營效率改進的基礎上，我們預期的供應量也會增加。隨著供應的增加，我們合法收款渠道的預期建設將在一定程度上抵消這一影響。

As a reminder, there's a timing lag when we invest in our legal channel. Typically, there's an upfront cost paid to the courts when a lawsuit is filed, followed several months later by cash collections starting to build. This distorts the cash efficiency ratio in periods of increasing legal placement. We saw something similar in 2018 when a significant increase in accounts placed in the legal collection channel resulted in a temporary dip in our cash efficiency ratio. As we stabilize legal placement levels and generated more collections in 2019, we saw the ratio climbing back higher again.

提醒一下，當我們投資於我們的合法渠道時，存在時間滯後。通常情況下，提起訴訟時需要向法院支付預付費用，幾個月後現金收款開始積累。這扭曲了合法配售增加期間的現金效率比率。我們在 2018 年看到了類似的情況，當時合法收款渠道中的賬戶顯著增加導致我們的現金效率比率暫時下降。隨著我們在 2019 年穩定合法安置水平並產生更多收藏，我們看到該比率再次回升。

We have experienced to build in available legal inventory and expect to increase our legal placements in the first quarter of 2023, with legal costs estimated to be in the mid-$20 million range. Taking into consideration all these factors, we expect our full year 2023 cash efficiency ratio to be between 60% and 61%. ERC at December 31 was $5.7 billion, with 38% in the U.S. and 53% in Europe. The decline from the end of 2021 was largely a result of currency translation. On a currency-adjusted basis, ERC would have remained level at $6 billion. We expect to collect $1.5 billion of our ERC balance during the next 12 months. And based on the average purchase multiples we've recorded in 2022, we would need to invest approximately $838 million globally over the same time frame to replace this runoff and maintain current ERC levels. We believe this level is attainable but continues to depend on normalization of the U.S. market we expect to happen in the coming months.

我們已經積累了可用的法律庫存，預計將在 2023 年第一季度增加我們的法律安置，法律成本估計在 2000 萬美元左右。考慮到所有這些因素，我們預計 2023 年全年的現金效率比率將在 60% 至 61% 之間。截至 12 月 31 日，ERC 為 57 億美元，其中美國占 38%，歐洲佔 53%。 2021 年底以來的下降主要是貨幣換算的結果。在貨幣調整的基礎上，ERC 將保持在 60 億美元的水平。我們預計在未來 12 個月內收取 15 億美元的 ERC 餘額。根據我們在 2022 年記錄的平均購買倍數，我們需要在同一時間段內在全球範圍內投資約 8.38 億美元，以取代這一徑流並維持當前的 ERC 水平。我們相信這一水平是可以達到的，但仍取決於我們預計未來幾個月美國市場的正常化。

Our capital position remains strong with leverage ratios at the low end of our long-term target of 2 to 3x debt-to-adjusted EBITDA. At the end of the quarter, we had $1.6 billion available under our credit facilities, $465 million of which was available to borrow after considering borrowing base restrictions. Additionally, in the last 12 months, we generated $1.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA, which we use as a good proxy of cash generation and shareholder value being created.

我們的資本狀況依然強勁，槓桿率處於我們 2 至 3 倍調整後債務 EBITDA 長期目標的低端。截至本季度末，我們的信貸額度有 16 億美元可用，其中 4.65 億美元在考慮借款基數限制後可藉入。此外，在過去 12 個月中，我們產生了 11 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，我們將其用作現金產生和股東價值創造的良好代表。

During the quarter, we completed the renegotiation of our European credit facility which simplified covenants, reduced borrowing costs and extended the maturity to 2027. Earlier this month, we completed a $400 million offering of senior unsecured notes. Due to the robust demand for the notes, we were able to upsize the offering to $400 million with pricing at the low end of our anticipated range. $345 million of the net proceeds from this offering will be used to retire our convertible notes maturing in June, with the remainder used to pay down our revolving credit lines.

本季度，我們完成了歐洲信貸安排的重新談判，簡化了契約，降低了借貸成本，並將期限延長至 2027 年。本月早些時候，我們完成了 4 億美元的高級無擔保票據發行。由於對票據的強勁需求，我們能夠將發行規模擴大到 4 億美元，定價處於我們預期範圍的低端。此次發行的淨收益中有 3.45 億美元將用於收回 6 月到期的可轉換票據，其餘部分用於償還我們的循環信貸額度。

Although we will see a slight uptick in our leverage metrics in the first quarter, this offer' leverage-neutral and improves our maturity profile. Our funding position is strong, and we have ample capacity in all the markets where we invest. Now I'd like to turn things back to Kevin.

儘管我們將在第一季度看到我們的槓桿指標略有上升，但此優惠的槓桿率中性並改善了我們的成熟度狀況。我們的資金實力雄厚，在我們投資的所有市場都有充足的能力。現在我想把事情還給凱文。

All right. Thank you, Pete. 2022 was another strong and meaningful year for PRA Group led by the performance of our European operations. And while not producing the same record results we experienced in 2020 and 2021, this past year was certainly one to remember. We celebrated our 20th anniversary as a publicly traded company, our tenth anniversary in Europe, and completed 26th year in business, which is not something many companies in our industry can say.

好的。謝謝你，皮特。 2022 年對於 PRA Group 來說又是強勁而有意義的一年，這得益於我們歐洲業務的表現。雖然沒有產生我們在 2020 年和 2021 年經歷的相同創紀錄的結果，但過去的一年無疑是值得記住的一年。我們慶祝了上市公司 20 週年，在歐洲成立 10 週年，並完成了 26 年的業務，這不是我們行業中許多公司可以說的。

Since our humble beginnings, we've expanded into 18 countries and have grown to employ more than 3,000 talented individuals around the world. We have seen and experienced a lot during those past 2 decades and believe the time is near for us to enter the next phase of the consumer credit cycle, one that is marked by strong and increasing supply. Frankly, we thought this was going to happen exiting 2019 and entering 2020. But then COVID happened, and we all know what followed. That being said, we remain disciplined in our purchasing. We strengthened our balance sheet, we remain focused on the customer and delivering on our strategic objectives, and we continue to invest in our employees, technology and operations.

從我們卑微的開始，我們已經擴展到 18 個國家，並發展壯大，在世界各地僱用了 3,000 多名人才。在過去的 20 年裡，我們已經看到並經歷了很多，並且相信我們進入消費信貸週期下一階段的時間已經臨近，這一階段的特徵是供應強勁且不斷增加。坦率地說，我們認為這將在 2019 年結束並進入 2020 年時發生。但後來 COVID 發生了，我們都知道接下來會發生什麼。話雖如此，我們在採購方面仍然保持紀律。我們加強了資產負債表，我們仍然專注於客戶並實現我們的戰略目標，我們繼續投資於我們的員工、技術和運營。

These areas of focus have been pivotal to our success for nearly 3 decades and will be even more critical to our success going forward. We are ready to help millions of people around the world resolve their debt, and we're ready for the next phase of growth as we continue to deliver value for our employees, customers, partners, communities and shareholders.

近 3 年來，這些重點領域對我們的成功至關重要，並將對我們未來的成功更加關鍵。我們已準備好幫助世界各地數以百萬計的人解決債務問題，我們已準備好迎接下一階段的增長，因為我們將繼續為我們的員工、客戶、合作夥伴、社區和股東創造價值。

So operator, we are now ready for questions.

那麼接線員，我們現在準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Bob Napoli with William Blair.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Bob Napoli 和 William Blair。

Good results here. I appreciate it. A question on the changes in expected recoveries. I mean you guys have had some nice outperformance. I mean it obviously adds a volatile revenue stream. Again, how should we think about how you're positioned as we think about over or underperformance in 2023.

這裡的好結果。我很感激。關於預期回收率變化的問題。我的意思是你們有一些不錯的表現。我的意思是它顯然增加了不穩定的收入流。同樣，當我們考慮 2023 年的業績超標或業績不佳時，我們應該如何考慮您的定位。

Yes. I think, Bob, as we've talked about on prior calls, we've taken an approach with our ERC forecast where we're really focused on what's happening in the near term, what's the latest trending. And over time, we've kind of been able to try and dial that in. So we went from having excess of $200 million of overperformance in 2020 and 2021 to being under $100 million this year for the full year, $88 million, and we've continued to sort of get closer to the [pen] each quarter. I think we continue to try and do that.

是的。我認為，鮑勃，正如我們在之前的電話會議上談到的那樣，我們在 ERC 預測中採取了一種方法，我們真正關注近期發生的事情，最新趨勢是什麼。隨著時間的推移，我們已經能夠嘗試將其撥入。因此，我們從 2020 年和 2021 年超過 2 億美元的超額表現變成了今年全年的不到 1 億美元，即 8800 萬美元，而且我們每個季度都繼續接近[筆]。我認為我們會繼續嘗試這樣做。

But as you know, this asset class is not one that's highly predictable. So we tend to give our best view at the end of each quarter and true that up as we go along.

但正如您所知，這一資產類別並不是一個高度可預測的資產類別。所以我們傾向於在每個季度末給出我們最好的觀點，並隨著我們的進行而增加。

And you sound a little more optimistic about Europe than maybe I expected. Just any commentary? I know supply, I think, has been slower to ramp up in Europe. And the macro there is not quite as good as the U.S., I don't think. So just any commentary on your confidence that you have there in Europe?

你對歐洲的看法聽起來比我預期的要樂觀一些。只是評論嗎？我知道，我認為歐洲的供應增長緩慢。我不認為那裡的宏觀經濟不如美國。那麼關於您對歐洲的信心有什麼評論嗎？

Yes. No, it's -- we've been obviously very pleased with our performance in Europe. And if you look at some of things that have occurred in terms of buying, for example, we shifted some buying out of the U.K. into the Nordics. I read some statistics on that for you in the script. The Nordics have become even more important. I think that the small wins we had in Spain are really interesting because we haven't purchased there in quite a while. There have been sellers who had exited the market for some period of time where we enter in Europe. There have been some, I guess, we would call it unexpected deals come to market in Europe.

是的。不，它 - 我們顯然對我們在歐洲的表現非常滿意。如果你看看在購買方面發生的一些事情，例如，我們將一些購買從英國轉移到北歐。我在腳本中為您閱讀了一些統計數據。北歐變得更加重要。我認為我們在西班牙取得的小胜利真的很有趣，因為我們已經有一段時間沒有在那裡購買了。在我們進入歐洲市場的一段時間內，已經有賣家退出市場。有一些，我猜，我們稱之為意想不到的交易進入歐洲市場。

And so that's what we're talking about and besides just the raw performance, which has been great, again, 10 years of increasing cash collections. It's this volume that we've seen, again, hasn't increased. Like -- in my script, I said we haven't seen charge-offs necessarily come up. But we're just seeing these green shoots, so to speak, kind of all around the geography. So I'm just kind of sharing what we're seeing.

這就是我們正在談論的，除了原始表現之外，10 年來現金收入的增加再次表現出色。我們再次看到的是這個數量沒有增加。就像——在我的劇本中，我說過我們還沒有看到一定會出現沖銷。但我們只是看到了這些萌芽，可以說，遍布各地。所以我只是分享我們所看到的。

And then, I guess, if I could just sneak in one quick 1 on -- you talked -- mentioned new products several times. Can you maybe give us a little more color on those new products? Are you active in like the Buy Now, Pay later space? Or just any color on new products?

然後，我想，如果我能快速地偷偷談一談——你說過——多次提到新產品。你能不能給我們更多關於這些新產品的顏色？您是否活躍於“立即購買，稍後付款”領域？或者只是新產品的任何顏色？

Sure. So one thing that I thought you might ask that question. One of the things I thought about was tell you what it's not. So we're not buying a bunch of real estate secured stuff in Greece, for example, or anywhere else. So but it's generally unsecured paper. It's generally in other -- in geographies where we maybe haven't bought from a particular seller. And I think that's -- I wouldn't quantify it. I don't want to put a label whether it's Buy Now Pay Later or peer to peer or -- just think it's kind of the same product we might have been buying in one geography and not in another -- one of the things that's interesting about Europe is the banks, for example, can operate as independent banks, so to speak, across different geographies.

當然。所以有一件事我認為你可能會問這個問題。我想到的一件事是告訴你它不是什麼。因此，例如，我們不會在希臘或其他任何地方購買一堆有房地產擔保的東西。所以，但它通常是無擔保的紙張。它通常在其他地區——在我們可能沒有從特定賣家那裡購買的地區。我認為那是——我不會量化它。我不想給它貼上標籤，無論它是“先買後付”還是“點對點”，或者——只是認為這是我們可能在一個地區而不是另一個地區購買的相同產品——有趣的事情之一例如，關於歐洲的銀行可以作為獨立銀行運營，可以這麼說，跨越不同的地區。

So if you're dealing with Bank A in the U.K., you might not be dealing with the same people in Spain or Italy or anywhere else. So sometimes we're buying a little bit different products across those geographies.

因此，如果您在英國與 A 銀行打交道，您可能不會在西班牙、意大利或其他任何地方與同一個人打交道。所以有時我們會在這些地區購買一些不同的產品。

The next question comes from David Scharf with JMP Securities.

下一個問題來自 JMP Securities 的 David Scharf。

I wanted to shift to the cost side and maybe a question for Pete here. As you noted, there are always a lot of competing dynamics both timing related, such as ramping up the legal channel again and macro related. But notwithstanding sort of the 2023 guidance range for efficiency ratio, kind of wondering, as you think about the progress you've made in digital, some of the other productivity enhancements, both domestically and in Europe. How should we think about it?

我想轉移到成本方面，也許這裡有一個問題要問皮特。正如您所指出的，總是有很多與時間相關的競爭動態，例如再次增加合法渠道和宏觀相關。但是，儘管 2023 年的效率比指導範圍有點大，但當您考慮在數字化方面取得的進展時，還是會想知道國內和歐洲的其他一些生產力提高。我們應該如何思考呢？

I mean do you think about a peak efficiency ratio in this business? I mean I know we saw just some crazy stimulus early 2021 levels in the 65%, 67% range. And that's probably not the answer. But is 60%, 61% in your mind a normalized level? Or you -- do you have a long-term goal in mind as you think about all the different investments you're making?

我的意思是你考慮過這個行業的峰值效率比嗎？我的意思是我知道我們在 2021 年初的 65%、67% 範圍內看到了一些瘋狂的刺激措施。這可能不是答案。但是60%、61%在你心目中是正常水平嗎？或者你——當你考慮你正在進行的所有不同投資時，你是否有一個長期目標？

I think you rightfully pointed out kind of pressure that we're seeing in advance of this cycle. I've talked on prior calls about the fact that we've got some slack in the system that we feel like we'll be able to absorb increased purchases without kind of a one-for-one ramp in variable costs associated with that.

我認為你正確地指出了我們在這個週期之前看到的某種壓力。我在之前的電話中談到了這樣一個事實，即我們的系統有些鬆懈，我們覺得我們將能夠吸收增加的採購量，而不會出現與之相關的可變成本的一對一上升。

So that said, I don't think the level that we're forecasting for 2023 in that kind of low 60s range. I don't feel like that's in any way the long-term trajectory for this business. I think we'd like to push our efficiency back to levels we saw during the pandemic and beyond as we think about continuing to drive efficiencies in the core operation and think about all other elements of our cost base and trying to continue to improve and drive efficiency in the operation.

也就是說，我認為我們預測的 2023 年的水平不會在 60 年代的那種低範圍內。我覺得這絕不是這項業務的長期發展軌跡。我認為我們希望將我們的效率提高到大流行期間及以後的水平，因為我們考慮繼續提高核心運營的效率，並考慮我們成本基礎的所有其他因素，並努力繼續改進和推動運作效率。

Got it. I know it's helpful. Just trying to gauge kind of what a potential ceiling is.

知道了。我知道這很有幫助。只是想衡量潛在的上限是多少。

Shifting to the purchasing side, I know in years past, you've always been quick to caution that any time there is a significant quarterly performance in Europe, regardless of the countries you're buying from, very often very lumpy, that it might be a big -- 1 or 2 banks unloading some nonperforming loans. Was that the case in this quarter? Or should we read this more broadly as more supply coming down the pike in 2023 out of the Nordics, span of the countries beside the U.K.

轉向採購方面，我知道在過去的幾年裡，你總是很快就警告說，只要歐洲有顯著的季度表現，不管你從哪個國家購買，通常非常不穩定，它可能成為一家大銀行——1 家或 2 家銀行出售一些不良貸款。本季度是否如此？或者我們應該更廣泛地理解這一點，因為到 2023 年，北歐（除英國之外的其他國家/地區）將出現更多供應。

Yes. I think what Kevin was trying to say in his prepared remarks was it was pretty broadly dispersed across the -- all of our geographies in Europe during the quarter. We did have some larger deals in the Nordics but we also bought in all but one of the markets. And so it's a really great quarter in terms of that geographic diversification.

是的。我認為凱文在他準備好的發言中想說的是，它在本季度相當廣泛地分佈在我們在歐洲的所有地區。我們在北歐確實有一些較大的交易，但我們也在除了一個市場之外的所有市場都進行了買入。因此，就地域多元化而言，這是一個非常好的季度。

Okay. And maybe just one quick follow-up just to clarify in the U.K., is that -- that's primarily a noncredit card market for you. Is that correct? I mean is it similar like mostly personal installment loans -- personal loans like the capitalize the other markets in the continent? Or is it mostly credit card?

好的。也許只是為了在英國澄清的一個快速跟進，那就是 - 這主要是你的非信用卡市場。那是對的嗎？我的意思是，它是否與主要的個人分期貸款類似——像利用非洲大陸其他市場的個人貸款？還是主要是信用卡？

No. It's more geared towards credit card paper quite frankly.

不，坦率地說，它更適合信用卡紙。

In the U.K. ?

在英國。 ？

Yes. But as Kevin said, we're still not seeing -- we have some forward flows in that market. We're still not seeing any real change in fresh charge-off. I'd say the U.K. market maybe is a little behind the U.S. market in that regard, but there has been other types of back book sales and things like that, that have supported the market broadly.

是的。但正如凱文所說，我們仍然沒有看到——我們在那個市場上有一些遠期流動。我們仍然沒有看到新的沖銷有任何真正的變化。我想說英國市場在這方面可能有點落後於美國市場，但還有其他類型的過期書籍銷售和類似的東西，廣泛支持了市場。

The next question comes from Mark Hughes with Truist.

下一個問題來自 Mark Hughes 和 Truist。

I think you said the change in estimates was $15 million, and that was a component of the change in expected recoveries, is that correct? So implying that overperformance in the quarter was $19 million. And I forget about that properly?

我想你說估計的變化是 1500 萬美元，這是預期回收率變化的一部分，對嗎？這意味著該季度的超額表現為 1900 萬美元。我忘了那個好嗎？

Yes. That's round numbers. That's right. overperformance and other kind of cash adjustments that happened in the quarter, put backs and things like that.

是的。那是整數。這是正確的。本季度發生的超額業績和其他類型的現金調整，放回等等。

Okay. And then the elevated legal spending, does that continue at the same level on a go-forward basis, but it's offset by better collections? Or does that paper at some point? And if so, when?

好的。然後增加的法律支出，是否會繼續保持在同一水平，但會被更好的收款所抵消？還是那篇論文在某個時候？如果是這樣，什麼時候？

Yes. I think that's going to be -- we've only given guidance on the first quarter. I think that's largely going to be contingent on how the inventories continue to build. And quite frankly, we would expect it to normalize and go a little bit higher as we start investing in more portfolio. So I think it might be a little lumpy quarter-to-quarter as we go through this year. So we'll try and give color as and when we feel comfortable releasing that.

是的。我認為這將是——我們只對第一季度給出了指導。我認為這在很大程度上取決於庫存如何繼續增加。坦率地說，隨著我們開始投資更多的投資組合，我們預計它會正常化並走高一點。因此，我認為今年我們經歷的季度與季度之間可能會有一些波動。所以我們會嘗試在我們覺得合適的時候提供顏色。

Yes. Okay. And Kevin, what was your comment that you made about returns in the U.S., maybe starting to improve a bit. Could you expand on that if possible?

是的。好的。凱文，你對美國的回報有何評論，也許開始有所改善。如果可能的話，你能擴展一下嗎？

Yes, sure can. I was thinking about that before the call. And if I could maybe give some color kind of broadly about how things kind of unfold. But -- so we are. So we are seeing, again, I would say, in the U.S. but also across the globe. So we are seeing some increased improvements to yield. But what you tend to see is when a market is transitioning, right -- so market is transitioning from where we were to where we're going, it's not easy a smooth progression. It's kind of jerky.

是的，當然可以。我在打電話之前就在考慮這個問題。如果我能給出一些關於事情如何展開的廣泛顏色。但是 - 我們是。所以我們再次看到，我想說，在美國，但也在全球範圍內。因此，我們看到產量有所提高。但是你往往會看到，當市場正在轉型時，對——所以市場正在從我們過去的位置過渡到我們要去的地方，平穩的進展並不容易。這有點生澀。

And so yes, we've seen and won some deals at higher returns, and we've also lost some deals bidding at higher returns. So we've seen -- as I mentioned before, we've seen some sellers that maybe will stop selling in Europe and they ran out of the market. We've seen some deals that we didn't expect to see.

所以是的，我們已經看到並贏得了一些回報更高的交易，我們也失去了一些以更高回報出價的交易。所以我們已經看到 - 正如我之前提到的，我們已經看到一些賣家可能會停止在歐洲銷售並且他們已經退出市場。我們已經看到了一些我們沒有預料到的交易。

One of the things I read in my script was this idea the fresh flows we have in the U.S. are starting to increase. They're increased kind of a small progression every month along the way, and we're still seeing that into February. So, yes. But that's -- it's a little spotty right now, though. And it will continue to do that and it will settle in at some point to, I think, appropriate levels given credit normalization, but also kind of the reality of increased funding, the cost of increased funding across the globe. They just have to go up just for that alone.

我在劇本中讀到的一件事是，我們在美國擁有的新鮮流量開始增加。在此過程中，他們每個月都有一點小進步，我們仍然會看到這種情況一直持續到 2 月。所以，是的。但那是——不過現在有點參差不齊。它將繼續這樣做，並且它將在某個時候穩定下來，我認為，考慮到信貸正常化的適當水平，但也有點增加資金的現實，全球資金增加的成本。他們只需要為此而上升。

Yes. Your forward flow agreements in Europe, if I'm reading it properly, may be down a little bit. Is that the timing is right to be more active on the spot market? Or is that just the ebb and flow of things? .

是的。你在歐洲的遠期流動協議，如果我沒看錯的話，可能會有所下降。在現貨市場上更加活躍的時機是否合適？或者這只是事物的潮起潮落？ .

That's a combination of sort of elapsation of time because remember, we're forecasting those to kind of next breakpoint in the contracts. But there's also a feature in some of those European agreements where they reset periodically based on the seller's latest forecast of what they're anticipating volumes to be. So that's just reflective of the fact that the fresh charge-off supply in Europe, particularly in the U.K., has been slower to develop than what we would have anticipated at this point.

這是一種時間流逝的組合，因為請記住，我們正在預測合同中的下一個斷點。但在某些歐洲協議中也有一個特點，即它們會根據賣方對其預期銷量的最新預測定期重新設置。所以這只是反映了這樣一個事實，即歐洲，特別是英國的新註銷供應的發展速度比我們目前預期的要慢。

The next question comes from Robert Dodd with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Robert Dodd 和 Raymond James。

Congratulations on the quarter and question coming back to inter-mart. On legal collection and legal fees and costs combined, I mean you mentioned 2018 in your prepared remarks, Pete, I think in 2018, combined those 2 numbers were $150 million; in '22, obviously, it was $115 million. What kind of purchase environment or ERC acquisition would necessitate moving back to that $150 million level? Or is that just not going back there given the investments you've made in the internal capabilities on that one.

祝賀本季度和問題回到 inter-mart。關於法律收費和法律費用和成本的總和，我的意思是你在準備好的發言中提到了 2018 年，Pete，我認為在 2018 年，這兩個數字加起來是 1.5 億美元；在 22 年，顯然是 1.15 億美元。什麼樣的採購環境或 ERC 收購需要回到 1.5 億美元的水平？還是考慮到您在該方面的內部能力方面所做的投資，就不會回到那裡。

Yes. I think there's 2 components there, right? As you rightfully point out. There's the cost component, which in simple terms is the kind of what we're paying to the courts to file the suits. Outside the U.S., there are some markets where they're largely legal-driven, and those will flow into that line item as well. And then the legal fees, which is really that sort of commission on collections that we're paying to the external firms.

是的。我認為那裡有 2 個組件，對嗎？正如您正確指出的那樣。還有成本部分，簡單來說就是我們向法院支付的提起訴訟的費用。在美國以外，有些市場主要受法律驅動，這些市場也將流入該項目。然後是法律費用，這實際上是我們支付給外部公司的那種收款佣金。

What I was referring to really was that core cost component and the fact that we anticipate that to build here in the first quarter. Our backdrop of our operation has dramatically changed since 2018 in terms of the build that we've done in our internal legal collections capabilities and the fact that we're placing a lot more of our legal collections internally versus with the external firms. And so we'll have a much better margin on that as the collections do come in, in the future.

我真正指的是核心成本組成部分以及我們預計在第一季度在這裡建造的事實。自 2018 年以來，我們的運營背景發生了巨大變化，包括我們在內部法律收集能力方面所做的構建，以及與外部公司相比，我們在內部放置更多法律收集的事實。因此，隨著收藏品的到來，我們在未來會有更好的利潤。

Got it. Another one, on the component of the internal collectors' perspective. You've driven tremendous efficiency. You've talked about the potential for more with digital, et cetera, et cetera. But in the context, obviously, that there's been lower ERC less to buy, et cetera.

知道了。另一個，關於內部收藏家觀點的組成部分。你已經推動了巨大的效率。你已經談到了數字等方面的更多潛力。但在這種情況下，很明顯，ERC 降低了，購買量減少了，等等。

Where -- at what point do you need to start driving that headcount back higher, less considered about the efficiency ratio because you've given us guidance for that for this year. But as much about the capacity to hire people, frankly, if you -- if supply does come, you need to map it back up, do you need to start doing that 6 months in advance of when you actually think you need them, given the time to hire and train and get the right people, et cetera? Or how are you thinking about that?

在哪裡 - 你需要在什麼時候開始增加員工人數，而不是考慮效率比，因為你已經為我們提供了今年的指導。但坦率地說，關於招聘人員的能力，如果你——如果供應確實來了，你需要將其重新映射，你是否需要在你真正認為需要他們的時候提前 6 個月開始這樣做，給定僱用、培訓和找到合適的人等的時間？或者你是怎麼想的？

Thanks, Robert. It's a good question. It's not like it used to be. And so when it comes to the ramp-up time. So first thing I'll tell you is that I doubt very seriously you'll see us at 3,500 collectors again. I think that we could buy so much paper and be far less than that number, given how much digital and how much our scoring analytics have improved everything.

謝謝，羅伯特。這是個好問題。它不像以前那樣了。因此，當談到加速時間時。所以我要告訴你的第一件事是，我非常懷疑你會再次在 3,500 名收藏家看到我們。我認為我們可以購買這麼多紙，但數量遠遠少於這個數字，考慮到數字化程度和我們的評分分析在多大程度上改善了一切。

And so -- and I'd also say that our training times and our maturation times have greatly sped up. So as you look at us right now, we're at, what, 797, just about 800 people. And we are about 830 at the end of last quarter. And here we are entering tax time, right, with that kind of level of people, and we're very comfortable with it. So it's been quite -- again, I'll use the word maturation, and I think that really sums it up. So it isn't, again, quite like the old days. So I hope that -- does that answer your question?

所以——我還要說我們的訓練時間和成熟時間大大加快了。所以當你現在看著我們時，我們有 797 人，只有大約 800 人。上個季度末我們大約有 830 人。在這裡，我們正在進入納稅時間，對，與那種水平的人在一起，我們對此感到非常自在。所以它非常——再次，我將使用成熟這個詞，我認為這真的可以概括它。因此，它又不像過去那樣了。所以我希望——這能回答您的問題嗎？

It does. That all 3,000 number you're not coming back any time soon, right.

確實如此。所有 3,000 個號碼你不會很快回來，對吧。

Right.

正確的。

Last one If I can, Pete, did you give -- obviously, the tax rate for the year was right in line with the guidance. Did you give a guidance number for tax rate for '23? Or is it the same, the low 20s?

最後一個如果我可以的話，皮特，你給了嗎 - 顯然，當年的稅率符合指導。您是否提供了 23 年的稅率指導編號？或者是一樣的，低 20 多歲？

Yes. I think we're going to be in that similar kind of ZIP code for the full year this year kind of in the low to mid-20% range.

是的。我認為我們將在今年全年使用類似的郵政編碼，在 20% 的中低範圍內。

The next question is a follow-up from Bob Napoli with William Blair.

下一個問題是 Bob Napoli 和 William Blair 的後續問題。

I just wanted to see if you could give any more color on digital because it does seem to be an industry game changer, if you will. What was the growth of digital collections? Or could you give -- I know you haven't given the percentage of collections. But any color you can give on -- and how much that is changing the game, if you would.

我只是想看看您是否可以在數字上添加更多顏色，因為如果您願意的話，它似乎確實會改變行業遊戲規則。數字館藏的增長情況如何？或者你能不能給出——我知道你沒有給出募集的百分比。但是你可以給出任何顏色——如果你願意的話，它會改變遊戲的程度。

Yes, sure. So what I said in the script was that total digital collections globally since 2019 has been up 80% overall, 8-0 percent. And in the U.S., because we started digital earlier in the U.S., it's up about 25%. And I was just talking to some folks before the call, and we've given some statistics some time ago. And they're still generally true is that the digital platform is still collecting on order of as much as our 2 largest call centers. So it's continuing to produce. That's the U.S., obviously, U.S. number.

是的，當然。所以我在劇本中說的是，自 2019 年以來，全球數字館藏總量總體增長了 80%，即 8-0%。而在美國，由於我們在美國較早開始數字化，因此增長了約 25%。我只是在電話會議之前與一些人交談，我們在前段時間提供了一些統計數據。他們仍然普遍認為，數字平台仍在收集與我們兩個最大的呼叫中心一樣多的訂單。所以它一直在生產。那是美國，顯然是美國的號碼。

Okay. All right. And then on purchases, I mean, looking at the delinquencies and the growth in credit card debt, as you guys put out some good chart, if that thing like charge-offs, as we normalize through the year, it could be up substantially. Do you expect like quarter-to-quarter-to-quarter to purchase more debt out of the U.S. I mean I know it can be a little bit lumpy at times, but is that what you -- based upon the amount of debt, it seems like to us, like you could have materially higher purchases in the back half of the year in the U.S.

好的。好的。然後在購買方面，我的意思是，看看拖欠率和信用卡債務的增長，正如你們提出的一些好的圖表，如果像沖銷這樣的事情，就像我們全年正常化一樣，它可能會大幅上升。您是否希望每個季度都從美國購買更多的債務？我的意思是我知道它有時會有點不穩定，但這是您的 - 基於債務數額，它在我們看來，下半年美國的採購量可能會大幅增加

So yes, I think, first of all, I'd expect these rates to continue to normalize. I think it's just -- again, I don't want to oversimplify it, but I think it's just math. Those things are going to happen. And if you link that together with what I've said about our forward flows, how they've been -- it's just a constant movement upwards, 1 step forward, 1 step forward, 1 step forward. And pretty soon, you've got pretty substantial increases if you look at where we're at today versus where we were at, say, in October.

所以是的，我認為，首先，我希望這些利率繼續正常化。我認為這只是 - 再一次，我不想過分簡化它，但我認為這只是數學。那些事情將會發生。如果你把它與我所說的關於我們的前向流動的內容聯繫起來，它們是如何 - 它只是一個不斷向上的運動，向前邁出 1 步，向前邁出 1 步，向前邁出 1 步。很快，如果你看看我們今天所處的位置與我們在 10 月份的位置相比，你就會看到相當可觀的增長。

And so -- and the trend has continued. And so I think that's what you should expect to see. Again, the open market bidding. I addressed in an earlier question. It can be a little spotty. But yes, I think we would expect to see just the continued dripping of those flows increasing.

所以——而且這種趨勢還在繼續。所以我認為這是你應該期待看到的。再次，公開市場招標。我在之前的問題中提到過。它可能有點參差不齊。但是，是的，我認為我們會期望看到這些流量的持續增加。

And then just lastly on the M&A, I mean, you've brought up M&A Yes. So I mean, we're going to wake up one morning and there's going to be an announcement that PRA acquired such and such. I mean what should we expect? Should we expect a new market of similar your current business, a European player? Or should we expect something a tangential or related type of business, but not in the maybe the debt purchasing business. Just any color, so we're kind of -- we could be prepared for what we might see.

最後是關於併購，我的意思是，你提到了併購是的。所以我的意思是，我們將在一天早上醒來，並且將宣布 PRA 收購了某某某某。我的意思是我們應該期待什麼？我們是否應該期待一個與您當前業務類似的新市場，一個歐洲玩家？或者我們應該期待一些切線或相關類型的業務，而不是在債務購買業務中。任何顏色，所以我們有點——我們可以為我們可能看到的做好準備。

Yes. Well, I'll let my script stand alone, Bob. It's -- we are looking at all those things I wrote in the script. I thought hard about it to try to give you guys a feel. But again, this whole idea of either expanding the footprint, new skills, capabilities new access to data. But again, new market, which would include, as you said, a tangentially related market is not out of the question by any means.

是的。好吧，鮑勃，我會讓我的劇本獨立存在。這是——我們正在研究我在劇本中寫的所有這些東西。我苦苦思索，想給你們一個感覺。但同樣，這整個想法要么擴大足跡、新技能、新的數據訪問能力。但同樣，新市場，如你所說，包括一個切向相關的市場，無論如何都不是不可能的。

So we'll try to give you some heads up as best we can. But we're being very strategic about it. And I know sometimes it's hard to be disciplined and strategic but be able to be flexible and fast enough to react when something comes out. But we're trying to do all those things at one time.

因此，我們會盡力提醒您一些注意事項。但我們對此非常具有戰略意義。而且我知道有時候很難保持紀律和戰略性，但能夠足夠靈活和快速地在出現問題時做出反應。但我們正試圖同時做所有這些事情。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Kevin Stevenson for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給凱文史蒂文森，聽取任何閉幕詞。

Well, thank you very much, operator. Again, thanks, everyone, for joining the call this evening. And I guess all I can say is we look forward to speaking to you again next quarter. Thank you.

好吧，非常感謝你，接線員。再次感謝大家參加今晚的電話會議。我想我只能說我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may all now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。你們現在可能都斷開連接了。