Permian Resources Corp (PR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Permian Resources' conference call to discuss its third-quarter 2024 Earnings. Today's call is being recorded. A replay of the call will be accessible until November 21, 2024, by dialing 800-839-5495 and entering the replay access code 26601 or by visiting the company's website at www.permianres.com.

早安，歡迎參加 Permian Resources 的電話會議，討論其 2024 年第三季收益。今天的通話正在錄音。2024 年 11 月 21 日之前，您可以透過撥打 800-839-5495 並輸入重播存取代碼 26601 或造訪該公司網站 www.permianres.com 來重播該電話會議。

At this time, I will turn the call over to Hays Mabry, Permian Resources' Vice President of Investor Relations, for some opening remarks. Please go ahead.

此時，我將把電話轉給 Permian Resources 投資者關係副總裁 Hays Mabry，讓其發表一些開場白。請繼續。

Thanks, Todd, and thank you all for joining us. On the call today are Will Hickey and James Walter, our Chief Executive Officers; and Guy Oliphint, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝托德，也謝謝大家加入我們。今天參加電話會議的是我們的執行長威爾希基 (Will Hickey) 和詹姆斯沃特 (James Walter)；以及我們的財務長蓋伊·奧利芬特 (Guy Oliphint)。

I would like to note that many of the comments during this earnings call are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could affect our actual results or plans. Many of these risks are beyond our control and are discussed in more detail in the risk factors and the forward-looking statements sections of our filings with the SEC.

我想指出的是，本次財報電話會議上的許多評論都是前瞻性陳述，涉及可能影響我們實際結果或計劃的風險和不確定性。其中許多風險超出了我們的控制範圍，並在我們向 SEC 提交的文件的風險因素和前瞻性聲明部分中進行了更詳細的討論。

Although we believe the expectations expressed are based on reasonable assumptions, they are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results may differ materially. We may also refer to non-GAAP financial measures that help facilitate comparisons across periods and with our peers. For any non-GAAP measure we use, a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in our earnings release or presentation.

儘管我們相信所表達的預期是基於合理的假設，但它們並不能保證未來業績，實際結果可能會有重大差異。我們也可能參考非公認會計準則財務指標，這些指標有助於促進跨時期以及與同業的比較。對於我們使用的任何非公認會計準則衡量標準，可以在我們的收益發布或演示中找到與最接近的相應公認會計準則衡量標準的調節。

With that, I will turn the call over to Will Hickey, co-CEO.

接下來，我會將電話轉給聯合執行長威爾希基 (Will Hickey)。

Thanks, Hays. We are excited to discuss our third-quarter results this morning. During the quarter, we successfully closed our Barilla Draw bolt-on acquisition and continued driving operational efficiencies that have led to further well cost reductions. Notably, we are raising our full-year production guidance for the third consecutive quarter while maintaining our CapEx guide.

謝謝，海斯。我們很高興今天早上討論我們的第三季業績。本季度，我們成功完成了 Barilla Draw 的補強收購，並持續提高營運效率，進一步降低了油井成本。值得注意的是，我們連續第三個季度提高全年生產指引，同時維持資本支出指引。

Overall, the PR team continues to perform at a very high level across the organization, which translates into improved capital efficiency and strong free cash flow generation, details of which we look forward to sharing this morning. Moving into quarterly results, Q3 production beat expectations with oil production of 161,000 barrels of oil per day and total production of 347,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

總體而言，公關團隊在整個組織中繼續保持很高的水平，這轉化為資本效率的提高和強勁的自由現金流生成，我們期待今天早上分享這些細節。進入季度業績，第三季產量超出預期，石油產量為每天 161,000 桶石油，總產量為每天 347,000 桶油當量。

Our strong performance is attributable to multiple factors, including continued D&C efficiency gains and consistent well performance. Based on these results, we are raising our full-year oil guidance again this quarter, amounting to an 11,000 barrel of oil per day increase compared to our initial guidance in February. Notably, nearly 8,000 barrels of oil per day of our guidance increase this year is a direct result of the outperformance of our base business with the balance resulting from executing on highly accretive M&A.

我們的強勁表現歸功於多種因素，包括持續的 D&C 效率提升和穩定的油井表現。基於這些結果，我們本季再次上調全年石油指導，與 2 月的初步指導相比，每天增加 11,000 桶石油。值得注意的是，今年我們的指引每天增加近 8,000 桶石油，這是我們基礎業務表現優異的直接結果，而平衡則來自於執行高增值的併購。

Importantly, we are doing so without changing our original CapEx guide despite bringing online more wells this year than originally budgeted. We were able to accomplish this due to our reduced cycle times and further cost optimization. We continue to deliver leading cash costs that support strong margins with Q3 LOE of $5.43 per BOE, cash G&A of $0.95 per BOE, and GP and T of $1.57 per BOE.

重要的是，儘管今年上線的油井數量超出了最初的預算，但我們並沒有改變原來的資本支出指南。由於週期時間縮短和成本進一步優化，我們能夠實現這一目標。我們繼續提供領先的現金成本，支持強勁的利潤率，第三季的 LOE 為每 BOE 5.43 美元，現金 G&A 為每 BOE 0.95 美元，GP 和 T 每 BOE 1.57 美元。

Strong production results paired with low cash costs and CapEx of $520 million in the quarter resulted in adjusted operating cash flow of $823 million and adjusted free cash flow of $303 million. While we'll hit on this later, it's worth noting we achieved these results despite modest contributions from our gas and NGL production streams, particularly where we had another weak quarter for Waha Gas.

強勁的生產業績加上較低的現金成本和本季 5.2 億美元的資本支出，導致調整後營運現金流為 8.23 億美元，調整後自由現金流為 3.03 億美元。雖然我們稍後會談到這一點，但值得注意的是，儘管我們的天然氣和液化天然氣生產流貢獻不大，特別是在瓦哈天然氣又一個疲軟的季度中，我們還是取得了這些成果。

This demonstrates the strong underlying performance of the PR business model and the potential upside we see from improving natural gas realizations. Turning to slide 4, This updated version of a slide we shared at an investor conference a couple of months ago emphasizes not just the growth of the company but how we've been able to transform our business.

這證明了公關業務模式的強勁基礎績效以及我們從提高天然氣變現中看到的潛在上行空間。轉向投影片 4，我們在幾個月前的投資者會議上分享的幻燈片的更新版本不僅強調了公司​​的發展，還強調了我們如何實現業務轉型。

First, we've been consistent with what we believe creates value, which is shown on the right-hand side of the page. These value drivers are really the same as when James and I founded the predecessor company, Colgate, in 2015. Our focus remains on the Delaware Basin, which we believe is the top oil shale play in the Lower 48. The Single Basin focus, along with our Midland headquarters, has established us the most efficient cost structure in the Delaware, which in turn drives outsized returns on acquisitions.

首先，我們始終堅持我們所認為的創造價值的理念，這一點顯示在頁面的右側。這些價值驅動因素與 James 和我在 2015 年創立前身公司高露潔時的價值驅動因素確實相同。我們的重點仍然是特拉華盆地，我們認為該盆地是 48 州下游的頂級油頁岩礦區。對單一盆地的關注以及我們的米德蘭總部為我們建立了特拉華州最有效的成本結構，這反過來又推動了收購的巨額回報。

These acquisitions not only improve the quality of our business but also provide near term, midterm, and long-term accretion. At the core of our strategy is a relentless focus on creating long-term value for our shareholders, which we measure on a per-share basis. Our primary goal is to grow long-term free cash flow per share with total shareholder returns expected to follow.

這些收購不僅提高了我們的業務質量，而且還提供了短期、中期和長期的增值。我們策略的核心是不懈地致力於為股東創造長期價值，我們以每股為基礎來衡量這一價值。我們的主要目標是增加每股長期自由現金流，並預計隨之而來的是股東總回報。

Slide 5 illustrates how our basin expertise and cost leadership have continued driving efficiencies throughout this year. On the drilling front, we set a record this quarter of 13 days spud to rig release. To put this in perspective, we began the year expecting to till 250 wells with 12 rigs and are now on track to till 270 wells with that same rig count, effectively adding an entire rig's worth of wells through efficiency gains.

投影片 5 展示了我們的流域專業知識和成本領先優勢如何在今年持續提高效率。在鑽井方面，我們本季創下了從開鑽到鑽機釋放時間為 13 天的記錄。為了正確看待這一點，我們今年年初預計用 12 台鑽機鑽探 250 口井，現在有望用相同的鑽機數量鑽探 270 口井，透過提高效率有效地增加整個鑽機的油井價值。

On the completion side, we've increased pumping hours per day again this quarter to 22 hours per day and now run all dual fuel frac fleets, which represent a material savings in the current gas price environment. As a result, our Q3 TILs were 15% cheaper than last year on a per-foot basis, translating to over $1 million per well in savings. Given these reductions are mostly due to efficiencies, we expect they will be here to stay.

在完井方面，我們本季再次將每天的抽油時間增加到每天 22 小時，現在運行所有雙燃料壓裂機組，這在當前的天然氣價格環境下節省了材料。因此，我們第三季的每英尺 TIL 比去年便宜 15%，相當於每口井節省了超過 100 萬美元。鑑於這些減少主要是由於效率，我們預計它們將持續下去。

And with that, I will turn the call over to James.

這樣，我就把電話轉給詹姆斯。

Thanks, Will. Turning to slide 6, we wanted to spend some time discussing how Permian Resources is approaching the marketing of our hydrocarbons. As you guys all know, the economics of Permian Resources business are primarily oil driven. They always have and will continue to be. But it's worth pointing out that PR is also one of the largest natural gas producers in the Permian Basin, producing approximately 600 million cubic feet per day of residue gas.

謝謝，威爾。轉向投影片 6，我們想花一些時間討論二疊紀資源公司如何進行碳氫化合物的行銷。眾所周知，二疊紀資源業務的經濟主要是石油驅動的。他們一直如此，並將繼續如此。但值得指出的是，PR也是二疊紀盆地最大的天然氣生產商之一，每天生產約6億立方英尺的殘餘氣。

This creates the potential for significant upside to free cash flow generation if natural gas prices improve going forward as is widely expected. For example, a $1 increase to our residue natural gas realization increases annual free cash flow by approximately $200 million and a $3 increase would increase free cash flow by almost 50%. At Permian Resources, we are incredibly proud of our performance operationally and pride ourselves on being a leader in the basin across almost all metrics.

如果天然氣價格像人們普遍預期的那樣繼續上漲，那麼自由現金流的產生就有可能出現顯著上升的潛力。例如，如果我們的殘渣天然氣變現增加 1 美元，則年度自由現金流量將增加約 2 億美元，如果增加 3 美元，則自由現金流量將增加近 50%。在二疊紀資源公司，我們對我們的營運績效感到無比自豪，並為自己在幾乎所有指標上成為該盆地的領導者而感到自豪。

But given our rapid growth, we have historically focused our midstream and marketing efforts more on flow assurance and on optimizing netbacks. And we've been extremely effective in ensuring all of our hydrocarbons can get to market with zero interruptions over the past five years.

但鑑於我們的快速成長，我們歷來將中游和行銷工作更集中在流量保證和優化淨收益上。在過去的五年裡，我們非常有效地確保我們所有的碳氫化合物都能零中斷地進入市場。

But as our business grew the scale it is today, particularly with the Erskine acquisition we closed 12 months ago, we have shifted our focus to also enhance the prices we receive for our oil and natural gas. And we've been successful working to optimize our netback so far in 2024.

但隨著我們的業務規模不斷擴大，尤其是 12 個月前我們完成了對 Erskine 的收購，我們已將重點轉向提高石油和天然氣的價格。到目前為止，我們已經成功地在 2024 年優化了我們的淨利潤。

For example, we have increased the amount of natural gas we sell at the Gulf Coast by almost 50% and netting an extra dollar on those molecules as compared to selling them at Waha like we had historically. But we aren't satisfied with where we are today. Midstream marketing is an area we expect to improve performance and drive meaningful incremental free cash flow in the coming years.

例如，與以往在 Waha 銷售天然氣相比，我們在墨西哥灣沿岸銷售的天然氣數量增加了近 50%，並從這些分子中賺取了額外的美元。但我們對今天的處境並不滿意。中游行銷是我們期望在未來幾年內提​​高績效並推動有意義的自由現金流增量的領域。

And fortunately, we have a lot of levers to pull to do just that. We have significant flexibility to improve downstream sales contracts for both crude and natural gas. We expect to be able to leverage our scale in the basin to reserve space on existing on haul pipes, take equity in future pipeline projects, and ultimately increase our access to Gulf Coast oil and gas markets.

幸運的是，我們有很多手段可以做到這一點。我們擁有極大的靈活性來改善原油和天然氣的下游銷售合約。我們希望能夠利用我們在該盆地的規模來預留現有運輸管道的空間，獲得未來管道項目的股權，並最終增加我們進入墨西哥灣沿岸石油和天然氣市場的機會。

The expectation that the US will see a step change in power demand over the next 15 years has created opportunities for increasing dialogue around the potential for power generation and data projects within the Permian Basin. We are also exploring opportunities to more efficiently power operations using in basin gas. Although most discussions are in the early innings, we are excited about the potential demand implications for Permian gas over the next several years.

人們預計美國電力需求將在未來 15 年內發生階躍變化，這為加強圍繞二疊紀盆地發電和數據項目潛力的對話創造了機會。我們也正在探索利用盆地天然氣更有效地進行電力營運的機會。儘管大多數討論都處於初期階段，但我們對未來幾年二疊紀天然氣的潛在需求影響感到興奮。

In early September, we updated our return of capital policy to further emphasize the base dividend as our primary form of capital return. We increased the base dividend by 150% to $0.60 per share annually. Our current base dividend yield is over 4%, which puts us well above our peers and highlights the relative value that Permian Resources stock represents today.

九月初，我們更新了資本回報政策，進一步強調基本股利是我們資本回報的主要形式。我們將基本股利每年增加 150% 至每股 0.60 美元。我們目前的基本股息殖利率超過 4%，這使我們遠高於同行，並凸顯了二疊紀資源股目前所代表的相對價值。

Our base dividend as a percentage of free cash flow remains below our peer average, reinforcing the dividend sustainability across cycles. We will continue to approach buybacks with the same philosophy we've had since inception, where we use the buyback opportunistically and in periods of clear market dislocations rather than targeting consistent monthly or formulaic approach to buybacks.

我們的基本股利佔自由現金流的百分比仍然低於同業平均水平，增強了跨週期股利的可持續性。我們將繼續以自成立以來的相同理念進行回購，即在明顯的市場混亂時期利用機會主義回購，而不是針對一致的每月或公式化的回購方式。

When we do choose to execute on the buyback program, we expect to do so in a meaningful way and as such have increased the buyback authorization for $500 million to $1 billion. Our management team owns over 6% of Permian Resources today and we approach decisions with the strong alignment that comes with being meaningful owners of the business. Our goal every day is to drive total return for our shareholders, and we think this updated policy positions us well for continued outsized value creation.

當我們確實選擇執行回購計劃時，我們希望以有意義的方式進行，因此我們將回購授權增加了 5 億美元至 10 億美元。如今，我們的管理團隊擁有 Permian Resources 超過 6% 的股份，作為有意義的企業所有者，我們在決策時保持高度一致。我們每天的目標是為股東帶來總回報，我們認為這項更新的政策使我們能夠繼續創造超額價值。

Turning to slide 8, we are really proud of where our balance sheet is today and all we have accomplished this year. We have deployed over $1 billion on acquisitions, while maintaining leverage right at 1 times. We've increased the average maturity of our outstanding bonds to approximately six years. And we've meaningfully increased our liquidity position from the start of the year today and are actively building cash.

轉向幻燈片 8，我們對今天的資產負債表狀況以及我們今年所取得的成就感到非常自豪。我們已投入超過 10 億美元進行收購，同時將槓桿率維持在 1 倍左右。我們已將未償還債券的平均期限延長至約六年。從今年年初開始，我們已經有意義地增加了流動性頭寸，並且正在積極累積現金。

Between our cash balance and our undrawn RBL, we have almost $2.8 billion of liquidity that should be available through up and down cycles. We have also protected our downside through hedging. We're over 25% hedged heading into Q4 at $74 and similarly hedged as we head into 2025. Going forward, we're highly focused on achieving investment-grade ratings in 2025 and we're upgraded by all three agencies this past quarter.

在我們的現金餘額和未提取的 RBL 之間，我們擁有近 28 億美元的流動性，可以在上下週期中使用。我們也透過對沖來保護我們的下行空間。進入第四季度，我們將超過 25% 的資產以 74 美元的價格進行對沖，並在進入 2025 年時進行類似的對沖。展望未來，我們高度重視在 2025 年實現投資級評級，上個季度所有三個機構都對我們進行了升級。

Our financial strategy is the same as it has been in the last nine years: to maintain a fortress balance sheet with low leverage and maximum liquidity, so we can capitalize on opportunities across multiple cycles. Turning to slide 9, we continue to be proud of our track record of operational execution and financial performance. We are increasing our full-year oil guidance for the third consecutive quarter by 6,500 barrels per day with the majority of this outperformance coming from our legacy business rather than recent acquisitions.

我們的財務策略與過去九年一樣：維持低槓桿和最大流動性的堡壘資產負債表，這樣我們就可以利用多個週期的機會。轉向幻燈片 9，我們繼續為我們的營運執行和財務業績記錄感到自豪。我們連續第三個季度將全年石油產量指引提高了 6,500 桶/日，其中大部分出色表現來自我們的傳統業務，而不是最近的收購。

The outperformance comes from a combination of accelerated cycle times and strong well performance. The efficiency we've seen on the drilling and completion side are allowing us to accelerate wells in production while maintaining CapEx within our original guidance range. We continue to optimize our cash costs for 2024, realizing better tax synergies from the Erskine merger than we had previously expected. As such, we are reducing our current tax guidance for 2024 to $10 million to $15 million from $50 million previously.

優異的性能來自於加速的循環時間和強大的油井性能。我們在鑽井和完井方面看到的效率使我們能夠加快油井生產速度，同時將資本支出保持在我們最初的指導範圍內。我們將繼續優化 2024 年的現金成本，透過厄斯金合併實現比我們先前預期更好的租稅綜效。因此，我們將 2024 年目前的稅收指引從先前的 5,000 萬美元減少到 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。

Looking back at the full year, we have increased oil production guidance by 11,000 barrels per day or 7% up from our original guidance, with over 70% of this outperformance coming from our base business. We think this continued outperformance demonstrates the strength and quality of our business.

回顧全年，我們將石油產量指導提高了 11,000 桶/日，比原來的指導提高了 7%，其中超過 70% 的業績來自我們的基礎業務。我們認為這種持續的優異表現證明了我們業務的實力和品質。

I'll be concluding today's prepared remarks on slide 10, where we reemphasize our value proposition for investors. The strength of our business is underpinned by an industry-leading cost structure, low breakevens, and long-dated high-return inventory, which together have driven leading free cash flow per share growth for our investors.

我將在投影片 10 上總結今天準備好的發言，我們在投影片中再次強調我們對投資者的價值主張。我們業務的實力得益於業界領先的成本結構、低損益平衡和長期高回報庫存，這些共同為我們的投資者帶來了領先的每股自由現金流成長。

When we talk about having generated leading shareholder returns since inception, we think it's important to highlight that these outsized returns have been driven by strong operational performance and accretive acquisitions rather than multiple expansion. Since the beginning of 2023, we have meaningfully increased the size and quality of the business but more importantly have increased oil production and free cash flow per share by 50%, all while improving the strength of our balance sheet. As large owners of the Permian Resources business, we are highly aligned with shareholders to continue to drive outsized shareholder returns for years to come.

當我們談論自成立以來創造了領先的股東回報時，我們認為重要的是要強調，這些巨額回報是由強勁的營運績效和增值收購而不是多重擴張所推動的。自 2023 年初以來，我們顯著提高了業務規模和質量，但更重要的是，石油產量和每股自由現金流增加了 50%，同時改善了我們的資產負債表實力。作為二疊紀資源業務的大所有者，我們與股東高度一致，將在未來幾年繼續推動超額股東回報。

Thank you for tuning in today. And now, we will turn it back to the operator for Q&A.

感謝您今天的收聽。現在，我們將其返回給運營商進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Neal Dingmann, Truist Securities.

（操作員指示）Neal Dingmann，Truist 證券公司。

Good morning, guys. Outstanding quarter. Guys, my first question is just on your future operational plans. I'm just wondering, will 2025 D&C be regional focused? I'm just wondering, when you look at New Mexico and Texas, will that stay essentially the same? And just I'm wondering maybe probably nothing here, but just wondering if any potential loosening of restrictions by the administration, particularly maybe in like New Mexico or wherever might have any sort of changes operationally for you all?

早安，夥計們。出色的季度。各位，我的第一個問題是關於你們未來的營運計劃。我只是想知道，2025 年的 D&C 會以區域為重點嗎？我只是想知道，當你看看新墨西哥州和德克薩斯州時，情況基本上會保持不變嗎？我只是想知道這裡可能什麼都沒有，只是想知道政府是否有可能放鬆限制，特別是在新墨西哥州或其他可能對你們所有人進行操作上的改變的地方？

I think '25 will look similar to what the last couple of years have. Majority of the capital spend in New Mexico, with the balance probably being Texas, Delaware, and kind of keeping Midland as sub-10%, I think there's a chance that you see a little bit less even in the Midland Basin than we had this year as we -- and probably moved that to the Barilla Draw acquisition on the Texas side but kind of majority of New Mexico development just like we've been for the last couple of years.

我認為 25 年的情況會與過去幾年相似。大部分資本支出在新墨西哥州，其餘的可能是德克薩斯州、特拉華州，而米德蘭則保持在10% 以下，我認為即使在米德蘭盆地，您看到的資本支出也有可能比我們看到的要少一些我們可能將其轉移到德克薩斯州一側的 Barilla Draw 收購中，但新墨西哥州的大部分開發項目就像我們過去幾年所做的那樣。

We're well ahead of the permitting and all the needs. So really having a looser or easier kind of regulatory environment, I think, probably doesn't change anything from our side. If on balance, it probably gives us a little bit of flexibility if we want to make some kind of more last-minute changes around different pads, which is nice to have but not a need to have.

我們遠遠領先於許可和所有需求。因此，我認為，真正擁有更寬鬆或更寬鬆的監管環境可能不會改變我們這邊的任何事情。總的來說，如果我們想在不同的焊盤上進行某種最後一刻的更改，它可能會給我們帶來一點靈活性，這是很好的，但不是必需的。

Great points, Will. And then just for second question, can't help but ask around your slide 6. Specifically, could you discuss, I don't know, what type of plans you can do with those 25,000 surface acres and the 40% taking high end gas? What upside does that optionality provide?

很好，威爾。然後就第二個問題，忍不住問你的投影片 6。具體來說，我不知道，您能討論一下您可以用這 25,000 英畝的土地和 40% 的高端天然氣製定什麼類型的計劃嗎？這種選擇性有什麼好處？

Yes. On the service side, I think that's just that's really just one of several non-upstream assets we're constantly working through. How we can maximize value for our shareholders for something, that's I think a little more under the radar than our base business. We've got a big royalties business. We've got a modest midstream business.

是的。在服務方面，我認為這只是我們不斷開發的幾個非上游資產之一。我認為，我們如何為股東實現價值最大化，這比我們的基本業務更受關注。我們有很大的版稅業務。我們的中游業務規模不大。

But I think specific to the surface, I think an outright sale could be an option, but I think, really, we think there's potentially some interesting developments that I think ultimately take time but could provide ways for us to work with more infrastructure-related parties to really fully optimize the value from that surface.

但我認為具體到表面上，我認為徹底出售可能是一種選擇，但我認為，實際上，我們認為可能會有一些有趣的發展，我認為這些發展最終需要時間，但可以為我們提供與更多基礎設施相關的合作方式各方真正充分優化該表面的價值。

I mean, I think kind of embedded in your question, I think as we look at AI data center demand, we think that's going to be real in the United States going forward. And I think especially with administration changes, I think natural gas is really well positioned to be a beneficiary of changes in the power consumption landscape going forward.

我的意思是，我認為你的問題有點嵌入，我認為當我們審視人工智慧資料中心的需求時，我們認為這在美國未來將是真實的。我認為，特別是隨著政府的變化，我認為天然氣確實有能力成為未來電力消費格局變化的受益者。

And we think that the Permian Basin and Permian Resources particularly should be very well positioned to benefit from that tailwind and should help in basin natural gas prices over time. I mean, if you think about the Permian, we've got abundant natural gas, we've got a supportive regulatory environment, we've got a very rural landscape, and a tremendous long-dated inventory with a lot of gas that historically has been pretty cheap. So I think we're really optimistic that that can provide a tailwind on the gas side of the business in the coming years.

我們認為，二疊紀盆地和二疊紀資源尤其應該處於有利地位，能夠從這台順風車中受益，隨著時間的推移，應該有助於盆地天然氣價格的上漲。我的意思是，如果你想想二疊紀，我們有豐富的天然氣，我們有支持性的監管環境，我們有非常鄉村的景觀，以及歷史上大量天然氣的巨大長期庫存。因此，我認為我們非常樂觀，認為這可以在未來幾年為天然氣業務帶來推動力。

And to answer your third question or second part of your second question, the ultimate goal of that 40% of the gas would be to move as much of those volumes over time to more favorable downstream markets, specifically the Gulf Coast. And I think it's important to point out on that slide you referenced, I think of that 60% we have that's currently committed, about half those volumes are selling at the Gulf Coast today. So if you kind of took the 40% and the 30% there, I think over time could ultimately have between 60% and 70% of our gas pricing in kind of non-Waha markets, but that does take some time to get there.

為了回答你的第三個問題或第二個問題的第二部分，這40% 的天然氣的最終目標是隨著時間的推移將盡可能多的天然氣轉移到更有利的下游市場，特別是墨西哥灣沿岸。我認為在您提到的幻燈片上指出這一點很重要，我認為我們目前已承諾 60% 的銷量，其中大約一半的銷量今天在墨西哥灣沿岸出售。因此，如果你採取40% 和30% 的比例，我認為隨著時間的推移，我們的Gas 定價最終可能會在非Waha 市場中佔據60% 到70% 的比例，但這確實需要一些時間才能實現。

Thank you, both.

謝謝兩位。

Scott Hanold, RBC.

斯科特·漢諾德，加拿大皇家銀行。

Yes. Thanks, all. Hey, I want to hit a little bit on how you view 2025. I know it's probably for you guys too early to give some firm numbers. But certainly on our side of the table, I mean, it's obviously a very strong point of emphasis right now. So just conceptually, can you help us think through -- look, you guys are really peaking on production in fourth quarter. As you look at strip commodity prices from that peak level or average levels in 2024, how should we think about the progression of production into next year at current strip prices, and what does that mean roughly for CapEx?

是的。謝謝大家。嘿，我想談談您如何看待 2025 年。我知道現在給出一些確定的數字對你們來說可能還為時過早。但當然，我的意思是，在我們這邊，這顯然是現在非常重要的重點。所以，從概念上來說，你能幫助我們思考嗎？當您從 2024 年的峰值或平均水平來看帶鋼大宗商品價格時，我們應該如何考慮以當前帶鋼價格進入明年的生產進度，這對資本支出意味著什麼？

Yes, Scott, I mean, I think we're going to continue on now a long-standing policy of not providing much of a look at 2025 guidance until we get to February of next year. I think that policy served us and our shareholders really well the last couple of years. I think that gives us a couple of months to further refine our plan, but I think just as importantly to assess the kind of macroeconomic backdrop and the kind of service cost environment.

是的，斯科特，我的意思是，我認為我們現在將繼續執行長期政策，即在明年 2 月之前不提供太多 2025 年指導。我認為這項政策在過去幾年對我們和我們的股東來說確實很有幫助。我認為這給了我們幾個月的時間來進一步完善我們的計劃，但我認為評估宏觀經濟背景和服務成本環境也同樣重要。

I think, really, our approach to what the next year and what growth looks like hasn't changed. I think we're targeting a growth range of zero to 10% based on the prior year's average. And I think for us it's really too early to tell what next year looks like. I think Will referenced it in his prepared remarks.

我認為，實際上，我們對明年的計劃和成長的看法並沒有改變。我認為我們的目標是根據上一年的平均水平實現 0 到 10% 的增長。我認為對我們來說，現在判斷明年會是什麼樣子還為時過早。我認為威爾在他準備好的發言中提到了這一點。

Our returns are really attractive today, but I do think there's some potential storm clouds on the horizon or some questions on the oil price from a macro standpoint. So for us, it's really too early to tell what it could look like. I think you're right in pointing out that Q4 is a really strong exit to the year, and we'll kind of have to wait until next year to see what the balance of the year looks like.

今天我們的回報確實很有吸引力，但我確實認為即將出現一些潛在的風暴烏雲，或者從宏觀角度來看油價存在一些問題。所以對我們來說，現在判斷它會是什麼樣子還太早。我認為你指出第四季度是今年的一個非常強勁的退出是正確的，我們必須等到明年才能看到今年的剩餘情況。

Got it, got it. So yes, just sort of -- the point I was trying to get to, what would it take to kind of keep that fourth quarter run rate flat? Is that -- that's obviously, from your view, a maintenance plus kind of level, is that correct?

明白了，明白了。所以，是的，我想表達的一點是，如何才能保持第四季的運行率持平？從您的角度來看，這顯然是一種維護加水平，對嗎？

Yes. I mean, I think historically, we've talked about maintenance CapEx. We talked about the prior full-year average, which would be that $158.5 million. We've got at the back of the deck. And I think we've talked about maintenance CapEx in the past as a few hundred million dollars below what we've spent this year, which is about $2 billion at the midpoint. So I think, probably, to answer your question, something that looks about like what we've spent this year would be a good round number, but that's all really preliminary and not something we're ready to come firmly to market with today.

是的。我的意思是，我認為從歷史上看，我們已經討論過維護資本支出。我們討論了先前的全年平均水平，即 1.585 億美元。我們已經到了甲板後面。我認為我們過去討論過維護資本支出，比今年的支出低了數億美元，今年的支出中位數約為 20 億美元。因此，我認為，也許，為了回答你的問題，看起來像我們今年花費的東西將是一個很好的整數，但這都是初步的，而不是我們今天準備堅定地推向市場的東西。

Okay. That's clear. And obviously, you've seen some pretty good progressions on reducing D&C well cost down to 800. Can you give us thoughts on where you see some upside opportunity or maybe the other way is, what are the tensions to actually pushing that to, I don't know, call it 750 at some point?

好的。很清楚。顯然，您已經看到在將 D&C 井成本降低至 800 方面取得了一些相當好的進展。您能否給我們一些想法，您在哪裡看到了一些上行機會，或者也許另一種方式是，實際將其推向（我不知道）在某個時候稱之為 750 點的壓力是什麼？

Yes. I mean, on the two biggest spending on the drilling and completion side, I think what you'll see is on the drilling side, if we're going to keep cutting costs, it's going to come on the days side. We've made a lot of progress this year, cut a couple of days per well off the spud rig release. But majority of your costs on the drilling side are variable in nature. And if we can keep cutting days, and I think that we still have a lot of room to go relative to what people are doing in the Midland Basin, and we keep trying to learn from that side of the basin and trying to cut days every quarter.

是的。我的意思是，就鑽井和完井的兩項最大支出而言，我認為您將看到的是鑽井方面，如果我們要繼續削減成本，那麼它將出現在日子方面。今年我們取得了很大進展，每口井的鑽機釋放時間減少了幾天。但鑽井方面的大部分成本本質上是可變的。And if we can keep cutting days, and I think that we still have a lot of room to go relative to what people are doing in the Midland Basin, and we keep trying to learn from that side of the basin and trying to cut days every四分之一.

So if we can cut another day, that's $100,000 a well, plus or minus. And then I think the completion side, we're starting to push the upward limit of pumping hours per day, so it's going to require kind of something creative. We've made some strides on using more natural gas and more compressed natural gas. But if we could take that to using field fuel gas or continue to optimize water recycling, I think there's some kind of creative outside-of-the-box ways to cut costs on the completion side.

因此，如果我們能再減少一天，每口井的成本就是 10 萬美元，上下浮動。然後我認為在完成方面，我們開始提高每天抽水時間的上限，所以這需要一些創造性的東西。我們在使用更多天然氣和壓縮天然氣方面取得了一些進展。但如果我們可以利用現場燃氣或繼續優化水循環利用，我認為有一些創意的創新方法可以降低完工方面的成本。

And so I'd say that's where we're focused. We've made progress every single quarter this year, some more than others. But given just where the overall market is, rig count continues to fall. I think we're very confident that this 800 number is here to stay and there's probably upside from here.

所以我想說這就是我們關注的重點。今年我們每個季度都取得了進展，有些進展比其他季度要多。但考慮到整體市場的狀況，鑽機數量持續下降。我認為我們非常有信心這個 800 的數字會持續下去，而且可能還有上升空間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John Freeman, Raymond James.

約翰·弗里曼，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

Good morning.

早安.

Hi. The first one, on the three final facts you all did during the quarter, just any color on sort of the cost savings that you all saw on those maybe relative to the metrics that you all show on slide 5?

你好。第一個，關於你們在本季所做的最後三個事實，你們所看到的成本節約是否與你們在投影片 5 上顯示的指標相關？

I think it's like $10 to $15 a foot.

我認為每英尺大約是 10 到 15 美元。

Got it. And then I guess on the last topic you touched on, on water recycling, which you all are up to the 50% recycled water on the completions. If you all are sort of looking out over the next couple of years, what would be sort of the goals on that percent of recycled water and just sort of any -- what investments would need to be made to kind of achieve it?

知道了。然後我想關於您談到的最後一個主題，即水循環利用，您都希望在竣工時使用 50% 的循環水。如果你們都在關注未來幾年，那麼再生水百分比的目標是什麼？

I think that 50%, we're very, very happy to get there. I think that that has become an unbelievably useful tool, for it saves us money both on the CapEx side but also on the LOE side, not to mention it's just environmentally the right thing to do. So this is a real kind of win-win-win situation. I think there's room to continue to increase it.

我認為 50%，我們非常非常高興能夠實現這一目標。我認為這已經成為一個非常有用的工具，因為它不僅在資本支出方面而且在 LOE 方面都為我們節省了資金，更不用說這在環保方面是正確的做法。所以這是一種真正的三贏局面。我認為還有繼續提升的空間。

If we could get to two-thirds of our water or maybe even three-fourths, I think that would probably be where it taps out at some -- there's always going to be about a quarter of your fracs or a quarter of your water that you can't recycle. So maybe that's a good goal over the next two years that we can push it up to two-thirds to three-fourths.

如果我們能夠獲得三分之二甚至四分之三的水，我認為這可能是它在某些地方耗盡的地方 - 總是會有大約四分之一的壓裂或四分之一的水你不能回收。因此，也許這是未來兩年的一個很好的目標，我們可以將其提高到三分之二到四分之三。

And then the majority of the water recycling we do is kind of contracted through third-party midstream, so it's not a big capital expenditure for us. We give them a little bit of margin, they spend the CapEx, and we both benefit from the recycling. I'd say -- I don't know if that's two-thirds or half, somewhere in there. And so the balance of that obviously is us, and that's what -- part of that is what's in that infrastructure budget that we -- that makes up the last quarter of our CapEx budget. And so I would expect that to -- at least that part to stay in there every year, if not slightly increase as we continue to pursue more water recycling over time.

我們所做的大部分水回收工作都是透過第三方中游承包的，所以這對我們來說並不是很大的資本支出。我們給他們一點利潤，他們花費資本支出，我們都從回收中受益。我想說——我不知道是三分之二還是一半，在其中的某個地方。因此，平衡顯然是我們，這就是我們的基礎設施預算的一部分，它構成了我們資本支出預算的最後一個季度。因此，我預計，隨著時間的推移，隨著我們繼續追求更多的水循環利用，至少這一部分每年都會保留在那裡，如果不是略有增加的話。

Very helpful. Thanks. Appreciate it.

非常有幫助。謝謝。欣賞它。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

尼爾梅塔，高盛。

Yes. Good morning, team, and very strong execution this quarter. The first question is there are a lot of headlines around New Mexico and potential risks around things like setbacks and I think the investor feedback was a lot of that seemed more media reports than things that would impact the business. But you guys probably spend a lot of time with New Mexico thinking through this. How should we assess some of those headlines?

是的。早安，團隊，本季的執行力非常強。第一個問題是，新墨西哥州有很多頭條新聞，以及諸如挫折之類的潛在風險，我認為投資者的反饋似乎更多的是媒體報道，而不是影響業務的事情。但你們可能花了很多時間在新墨西哥州思考這個問題。我們應該如何評估其中一些頭條新聞？

Yes, that's a good question. And I think the real answer on setbacks is that we don't believe there's any substance to some of the concerns raised over the past few weeks, especially. There was an article out a couple of weeks ago about a report commissioned by the Legislative Finance Committee. And honestly, that report that the committee issued came to what we think was the right conclusion, which was it confirms that these sorts of actions would be costly and detrimental to the state and people of New Mexico.

是的，這是一個好問題。我認為挫折的真正答案是，我們不相信過去幾週提出的一些擔憂有任何實質內容。幾週前發表了一篇關於立法財務委員會委託編寫的報告的文章。老實說，委員會發布的報告得出了我們認為正確的結論，即它證實此類行動將對新墨西哥州和人民造成代價高昂且有害。

And as such, we don't think there's any chance that something like that would ever get through the legislature in New Mexico. The state of Mexico has long been supportive of and dependent upon oil and gas development in a way that we firmly believe is mutually beneficial for both responsible operators like Permian Resources and the people of New Mexico. So I'd say the assurances are highly confident the state would not adopt something like statewide setbacks that would impact our ability to continue to operate efficiently in New Mexico. And we think it should be business as usual there for a long time.

因此，我們認為類似的事情不可能在新墨西哥州的立法機關獲得通過。墨西哥州長期以來一直支持並依賴石油和天然氣開發，我們堅信這種方式對於二疊紀資源公司等負責任的營運商和新墨西哥州人民來說是互惠互利的。因此，我想說，這些保證非常有信心，該州不會採取類似全州範圍內的挫折之類的措施，這會影響我們在新墨西哥州繼續高效運作的能力。我們認為在很長一段時間內應該一切如常。

That's very clear. And then just your perspective on the M&A market, you guys have done a great job with consolidation. But as we think about transformative M&A versus bolt-on M&A, is it fair to say that right now the focus would be more bolt-on M&A, but just curious what your perspective is on?

這非常清楚。然後就您對併購市場的看法來看，你們在整合方面做得很好。但是，當我們考慮變革性併購與補強併購時，是否可以公平地說，目前的焦點將更多地放在補強併購上，但只是好奇您的觀點是什麼？

Yes, I mean, I think the opportunity set today definitely feels more like bolt on M&A. I think for us, we've been really successful over the past nine years buying the right deals at the right times in a way that's driven outsized return for shareholders. And I think a really important part of that for us is we've always wanted to buy assets and buy businesses that make our base business better and our company can drive outsized shareholder returns for years to come.

是的，我的意思是，我認為今天的機會絕對感覺更像是併購。我認為對我們來說，過去九年來我們非常成功，在正確的時間購買了正確的交易，為股東帶來了豐厚的回報。我認為對我們來說，真正重要的一部分是我們一直想購買資產和購買業務，使我們的基礎業務變得更好，並且我們的公司可以在未來幾年推動超額股東回報。

And with the quality of the business that we've got today, I'd say that raises the bar really, really high. And I think a lot of the deals that are out there and all the deals we've looked at lately just don't achieve our return hurdles and don't make our business better. So I think the focus that kind of lately has been on those smaller bolt-ons, the kind of more cash deals that just what we're doing are accretive to our inventory life and compete for capital day one. So I think we're always open to evaluating all these things. And as they come along, if we've done the right one, we'd obviously be excited to do it. But a lot of the time and momentum today seems to be more on more of the bolt-on acquisitions.

就我們今天的業務品質而言，我想說這確實提高了標準。我認為，現有的許多交易以及我們最近關注的所有交易都沒有達到我們的回報目標，也沒有讓我們的業務變得更好。因此，我認為最近的焦點一直集中在那些較小的補充上，即我們正在做的更多現金交易，這些交易可以增加我們的庫存壽命並爭奪第一天的資本。所以我認為我們總是願意評估所有這些事情。當它們出現時，如果我們做了正確的事情，我們顯然會很高興這樣做。但今天的許多時間和動力似乎更多地花在了更多的補強收購上。

Very clear. Thanks guys.

非常清楚。謝謝你們。

Gabe Daoud, TD Cowen.

加布·達烏德，TD·考恩。

Thanks. Hey, good morning guys. Just wanted to go back to, I guess, infrastructure spend for 2024. You guys actually just noted a couple of questions ago that 25% or so of the capital is towards infrastructure. But I do think this year was a bit elevated just given some spend around Earthstone's assets. So could you maybe just confirm that's the case? And how should we expect infrastructure capital to trend into 2025?

謝謝。嘿，早上好，夥計們。我想只是想回顧一下 2024 年的基礎設施支出。實際上你們之前剛剛注意到幾個問題，大約 25% 的資本用於基礎設施。但我確實認為，考慮到圍繞地球之石資產的一些支出，今年的業績有所上升。那麼能否確認一下情況確實如此？我們該如何預期 2025 年基礎設施資本的趨勢？

Yes. I mean, we're still working through 2025. I can confirm you're correct that we had, call it, $100 million of infrastructure spend associated with the Earthstone acquisition that came through in 2024. So absent any acquisitions, I'd expect infrastructure spend to be down year over year. We've done quite a few, not Earthstone size, but between Tascosa, [Ring], and then the Oxy acquisition, we've done quite a few acquisitions over the course of this year as well.

是的。我的意思是，到 2025 年我們仍在努力。我可以確認你的說法是正確的，我們在 2024 年完成的 Earthstone 收購中花費了 1 億美元的基礎設施支出。因此，如果沒有任何收購，我預計基礎設施支出將逐年下降。我們已經完成了相當多的收購，不是 Earthstone 規模的收購，而是在 Tascosa、[Ring] 和 Oxy 收購之間，今年也完成了相當多的收購。

So I don't know if that means that it would have been down 100, but now it's only down 50, or I'm just spitballing exactly what it looks like. But I think it's fair that infrastructure spend should be slightly down year over year. I don't know exactly what that looks like yet though.

所以我不知道這是否意味著它會下降 100，但現在只下降了 50，或者我只是在隨口吐口水。但我認為基礎設施支出比去年同期略有下降是公平的。但我還不知道那到底是什麼樣子。

Okay, okay. No, that's helpful. Thanks for confirming that. And then I guess just as a follow up, you noted in the release and the prepared remarks -- I guess, this is the prepared remarks. But taking an equity stake potentially in a natural gas long haul pipe over the next couple of years. Well, I guess, yes, the question would be you're referring to Apex or Blackcomb or is it something more longer data? Just trying to get a sense of when that could materialize. Thanks, guys.

好吧，好吧。不，這很有幫助。感謝您確認這一點。然後我想，作為後續行動，您在新聞稿和準備好的評論中註意到了——我想，這就是準備好的評論。但未來幾年可能會收購天然氣長途管道的股權。嗯，我想，是的，問題是你指的是 Apex 或 Blackcomb，還是更長的數據？只是想了解什麼時候可以實現。謝謝，夥計們。

No, I think not going to go into specifics on any conversations that may be ongoing today. But I do think if an equity stake made sense, both -- kind of ensuring we had the right downstream interconnectivity and sales points and confident we can earn a return on our investment. It's something that's certainly on the table, but that's more intended to be one of the tools at our disposal today, and we feel like we've got a really good plan on that whole strategy. So nothing specific we can share today, but I'd say kind of all potential options like that are on the table.

不，我認為不會詳細討論今天可能正在進行的任何對話。但我確實認為，如果股權有意義，既可以確保我們擁有正確的下游互連和銷售點，又可以讓我們有信心獲得投資回報。這肯定是擺在桌面上的事情，但它更旨在成為我們今天可以使用的工具之一，我們覺得我們對整個策略有了一個非常好的計劃。因此，我們今天沒有什麼可以分享的具體內容，但我想說，所有類似的潛在選項都已擺在桌面上。

Understood. Thanks, guys.

明白了。謝謝，夥計們。

Thanks.

謝謝。

John Abbott, Wolfe Research.

約翰‧阿博特，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hey, thank you very much for taking our questions. I want to approach 2025 a little bit differently. I want to start with 2024. So in your remarks, in your press release, you reduced well costs by approximately $1 million compared to last year. If you repeated -- if you have those costs today, where would you think your CapEx for 2024 would first shake out at?

嘿，非常感謝您回答我們的問題。我想以稍微不同的方式迎接 2025 年。我想從2024年開始。因此，在您的演講和新聞稿中，與去年相比，您減少了約 100 萬美元的油井成本。如果你重複一次——如果你現在有這些成本，你認為 2024 年的資本支出首先會在哪裡？

So maybe I'll ask that a different way. We reduced it off of $1 million off of '23. So maybe I think the easier way I put it is, we're expecting to come in near the midpoint of our CapEx guidance and we've added 20 to 20 tilts to the year. So maybe that's a better way to answer what you're saying?

所以也許我會以不同的方式問這個問題。我們從 23 年起將其減少了 100 萬美元。因此，也許我認為更簡單的說法是，我們預計資本支出指導接近中點，並且今年我們增加了 20 到 20 次傾斜。那麼也許這是回答你所說的更好的方式？

Yes. I'm just -- I was just trying to get a sense if you had your cost today and if you were sort of to repeat your program today where your CapEx would sort of come in, but that's fair. Then my next question is that you have had been various your operations are doing extraordinarily well. There are benefits to maintaining consistent operations. Strategically, when you think about your operations, is there a certain number of rigs and a certain number of frac crews that you think are important as you sort of just strategically just to keep going from an efficiency perspective as you think about activity going forward?

是的。我只是 - 我只是想了解一下，如果你今天有成本，如果你今天重複你的計劃，你的資本支出會有所增加，但這是公平的。那麼我的下一個問題是，你們的業務一直表現得非常好。保持一致的運作是有好處的。從策略上講，當您考慮您的營運時，您認為是否有一定數量的鑽井平台和一定數量的壓裂人員很重要，因為您在考慮未來的活動時只是從戰略角度出發，從效率的角度繼續前進？

Our team over the last couple of years with acquisitions has really shown the ability to pick up, change out, and drop rigs and frac fleets without missing a beat. So I think that the 12-rig program we're running is great and it's working really well. But I'd say, I have the confidence in their ability to go to 11 rigs, go to 13 rigs, and run anywhere between two and four frac fleets without missing a beat.

我們的團隊在過去幾年的收購中確實展示了毫不猶豫地拾取、更換和丟棄鑽孔機和壓裂船隊的能力。所以我認為我們正在運行的 12 台鑽機專案非常棒，而且運作得非常好。但我想說，我對他們有能力去 11 個鑽井平台、13 個鑽井平台以及運行兩到四個壓裂船隊而不會錯過任何一個節拍的能力充滿信心。

And that's something new. I'd say there was a point in time a couple of years ago where I would have had a lot of hesitation to kind of bounce rig count around. And given what I've seen with changing out all the rigs after the Earthstone acquisition, picking up a rig, dropping a rig, etcetera, like they do it. We pick up new rigs, and they are just as good as the rest of ours within a well or two.

這是新事物。我想說，幾年前的某個時間點，我對彈跳裝備計數有很多猶豫。考慮到我在《地球之石》收購後所看到的更換所有裝備、拿起裝備、掉落裝備等等，就像他們所做的那樣。我們購買了新的鑽孔機，它們與我們在一兩口井內的其他鑽孔機一樣好。

So probably two different ways to answer your question. I think the 12 rig, 3.5 frac fleet program seems to be really efficient and working well, but I am not -- there's no operational nerves for me of picking up or dropping a rig, if that's what the right answer is.

所以可能有兩種不同的方式來回答你的問題。我認為 12 台鑽機、3.5 台壓裂船隊計劃似乎非常有效率且運作良好，但我並非如此——如果正確答案是這樣的話，我就沒有拿起或放下鑽機的操作神經。

And then just one really quick follow up to all that. So just to think about terms of efficiency operations and you think about whether or not you think about growth into next year, would you ever just be willing to build DUCs or do you don't see any value for building DUCs?

然後對這一切進行快速跟進。因此，只要考慮一下效率營運方面的問題，並考慮是否考慮明年的成長，您是否願意建立 DUC，還是認為建立 DUC 沒有任何價值？

I mean, if oil went to -- we built DUCs back in COVID. So if oil went to 30 or 40, we would build DUCs. But I don't think there's -- to spend a bunch of capital and leave it in the ground for a long time without getting the production is not something that we would do at a normal oil price scenario.

我的意思是，如果石油去了——我們會在新冠疫情期間建造 DUC。因此，如果石油價格達到 30 或 40，我們就會建造 DUC。但我認為，在正常的油價情況下，我們不會採取花大量資金並將其長期埋在地下而無法生產的做法。

All right. Thank you very much for taking our questions.

好的。非常感謝您接受我們的提問。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Zach Parham, JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

札克·帕勒姆，摩根大通。請繼續。

Yes. Thanks for taking my questions. First, you've talked a lot about efficiency gains on the call and that driving costs lower. But can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing on the service side? I'm sure you're going through the negotiating process now, but any thoughts on how potential deflation might trend in 2025?

是的。感謝您回答我的問題。首先，您已經談了很多關於通話效率提升和降低成本的問題。但您能談談您在服務方面看到的情況嗎？我確信您現在正在經歷談判過程，但您對 2025 年潛在通貨緊縮的趨勢有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. We made a little progress over the last few quarters on the kind of true deflation, a lot of it in materials, things like sand, the two biggest ones being sand and water. I think water is probably more on the efficiency side with recycling, but sand being one where just we've seen a little bit of reduction there.

是的。過去幾個季度，我們在真正的通貨緊縮方面取得了一些進展，其中許多是在材料方面，例如沙子，其中最大的兩個是沙子和水。我認為水的回收利用可能更能提高效率，但沙子的回收效率卻下降。

The big-ticket service company stuff has been stickier. We made a little progress in areas where we found some win-wins or there's a little price concession here or there. So I think that the balance of power is probably in our hands, but it feels like this is an environment where we're trying to be constructive and find win-wins before we really go kind of squeeze margins just to continue to maintain efficiencies.

大型服務公司的東西更具黏性。我們在一些雙贏的領域取得了一些進展，或者在一些地方進行了一些價格讓步。因此，我認為力量的平衡可能掌握在我們手中，但感覺這是一個我們試圖保持建設性並找到雙贏的環境，然後我們才真正擠壓利潤以繼續保持效率。

Thanks. That makes sense. And then just one follow up on cash taxes. You lowered the estimate to $10 million to $15 million. That's quite a bit lower than you were at the beginning of the year. Any thoughts on how cash taxes will trend in 2025? And do you expect to be subject to the KMT next year?

謝謝。這是有道理的。然後是現金稅的一項後續行動。您將估算值降低至 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元。這比年初要低很多。對於 2025 年現金稅的趨勢有何想法？您預計明年會受國民黨管轄嗎？

Yes, thanks. The reduction is really just a lot of refinement, not just optimization from our accounting and tax team really around Earthstone. So that's been great progress there. We have to finalize our work, but we don't expect to be subject to KMT in 2025. We'll provide more detail on that in February. We do expect to continue to have meaningful tax deferral in 2025 also. So we'll provide more detail, but good work so far.

是的，謝謝。減少實際上只是大量的改進，而不僅僅是我們的會計和稅務團隊真正圍繞地球之石的優化。所以這是一個巨大的進步。我們必須完成我們的工作，但我們預計2025年不會受制於國民黨。我們將在二月提供更多詳細資訊。我們確實預期 2025 年將繼續實施有意義的稅務遞延。因此，我們將提供更多細節，但到目前為止做得很好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Leo Mariani, ROTH.

利奧·馬裡亞尼，羅斯。

Yes. Just wanted to kind of ask on activity heading into the fourth quarter here. Are you all expecting to see activity tick down a little bit in 4Q versus 3Q? Obviously, you guys went really fast in 3Q, and I think had probably certainly kind of more tills than expected. So should we kind of expect CapEx and activity to be down a little bit in 4Q versus 3Q?

是的。只是想詢問一下進入第四季的活動。你們是否都預計第四季的活動會比第三季略有下降？顯然，你們在第三季的進展非常快，我認為收銀台的數量可能比預期的要多。那麼，我們是否應該預期第四季的資本支出和活動會比第三季略有下降？

Yes. I think that CapEx should be down quarter over quarter. A lot of that's just kind of a function of working interest in the quarter. So you'll see we'll keep running our 12 rigs through the end of the year and into next year. But our quarter-over-quarter CapEx we're expecting to be kind of slightly down Q4 from Q3, but it's more of a function of just kind of the well mix we're drilling.

是的。我認為資本支出應該逐季下降。其中許多只是本季工作興趣的函數。因此，您將看到我們將在今年年底和明年繼續運行 12 台鑽機。但我們預計第四季度的季度資本支出將比第三季略有下降，但這更取決於我們正在鑽探的油井組合。

Okay. Appreciate that. And then just following up on that, you kind of alluded to this already in some of your comments here, but clearly, we're able to go a lot faster this year and you got 20 extra wells with the 12 rigs. Are you giving kind of consideration to trying to kind of get back to the previously planned pace of, say, closer to 250 wells and do that with 11 rigs? How are you thinking about that? Just trying to get a sense of your thinking about trying to capture some of those efficiencies and put it more into kind of CapEx savings as opposed to just kind of doing more with the same capital?

好的。很欣賞這一點。然後就跟進這一點，您已經在一些評論中提到了這一點，但顯然，今年我們的進展速度要快得多，您用 12 台鑽機獲得了 20 口額外的油井。您是否正在考慮嘗試恢復到先前計劃的速度，例如接近 250 口井並使用 11 台鑽機實現這一目標？你覺得怎麼樣？只是想了解您對提高效率的想法，並將其更多地投入資本支出節省中，而不是僅僅用相同的資本做更多的事情？

We definitely could drill 250 wells next year with 11 rigs if that's what we wanted to do. So I think that whatever plan we roll out in February will reflect the efficiencies we've picked up over the last two quarters. But we're not there yet on exactly how much capital we want to spend and what the right rig count is.

如果我們願意的話，明年我們肯定可以用 11 台鑽機鑽 250 口井。因此，我認為無論我們在二月推出什麼計劃，都將反映我們在過去兩個季度所提高的效率。但我們還沒有確切地知道我們想要花費多少資金以及正確的鑽機數量是多少。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Oliver Huang, TPH.

奧利弗·黃，TPH。

Good morning, team, and thanks for taking the questions. I know in the past, you all spoken to running a fairly repeatable program targeting a similar zone mix, pad sizes, regional allocation. Just kind of given the increased size and scale of the business today, is there any consideration to potentially expanding on the average number of wells per pad as potentially a lever to further drive down well cost even further or maybe potentially tacking on an incremental zone in certain areas of the program when kind of considering the plan for the 12-24 months?

早安，團隊，感謝您提出問題。我知道過去，你們都談過運行一個相當可重複的程序，目標是類似的區域組合、焊盤尺寸、區域分配。考慮到當今業務規模和規模的增加，是否考慮潛在地擴大每個平台的平均油井數量，作為進一步降低油井成本的潛在槓桿，或者可能增加油井的增量區域計劃的某些領域何時考慮12- 24 個月的計劃？

I'd say our plan kind of on a unit-by-unit basis is it's been consistent over the last few years and is still what we believe is the right balance of kind of how to develop our assets going forward. Just as a reminder, we are kind of very specific to the different areas we're developing and what the rock needs. There are some DSUs, a lot of them on the Texas side, where you need to go co complete kind of all the different benches, and that's the strategy that we execute there.

我想說的是，我們的計劃在逐個單位的基礎上是在過去幾年中保持一致的，並且仍然是我們認為如何發展我們的資產的正確平衡。提醒一下，我們對我們正在開發的不同領域以及岩石的需求非常具體。有一些 DSU，其中許多都在德克薩斯州一側，你需要在那裡共同完成所有不同的工作，這就是我們在那裡執行的策略。

As we move to New Mexico, there are some benches that need to be co completed, but others that have plenty of height separation or frac barriers that allow us to break different zones into different development packages. So that's what we'll do. We'll kind of let the rock dictate what the right answer is.

當我們搬到新墨西哥州時，有一些長凳需要共同完成，但其他長凳有足夠的高度間隔或壓裂屏障，使我們能夠將不同的區域分成不同的開發包。這就是我們要做的。我們會讓岩石決定正確的答案是什麼。

And I would say our tolerance for larger pad sizes is higher today than it was last year and higher last year than it was the year prior. Just as the total number of rigs, number of wells, and size and scale of the business gets bigger, kind of the lumpiness from really driving up pad size is we can mask it better within the business.

我想說，今天我們對更大焊盤尺寸的容忍度比去年更高，去年也比前年更高。就像鑽機總數、油井數量以及業務規模和規模越來越大一樣，由於實際增加的平台尺寸而帶來的不穩定性是我們可以在業務中更好地掩蓋它。

So all that to be said, I bet pad size is slightly higher next year than it was this year just because of the tolerance we have. But we still had some 25 well pads this year because that's what the rock dictated in certain places. And we're not scared to do that, and we'll continue to do that in the areas where we need to.

綜上所述，我敢打賭明年的焊盤尺寸會比今年略高，只因為我們有容忍度。但今年我們仍然有大約 25 個井場，因為某些地方的岩石決定了這一點。我們不害怕這樣做，我們將繼續在我們需要的領域這樣做。

Awesome. That's helpful color. And maybe for a follow-up question, just wanted to see if you all had any thoughts around power liability these days. Just any sort of investments from a capital side beyond the norm that might need to be made with just kind of how fast you all are working to ensure you're staying ahead of the TIL schedule?

驚人的。這是有用的顏色。也許對於後續問題，只是想看看你們這些天是否對電力責任有任何想法。是否有來自資本方面的超出常規的任何類型的投資，可能需要以你們所有人的工作速度來確保領先於 TIL 時間表？

I think the right way to think about is when we have reliable power. You can see from our operations we have never and don't expect to ever kind of, quote, downtime or production miss due to power reliability. I do think that's an opportunity for a lot of future efficiency gains that probably shows up to the LOE side. Our New Mexico position is still very generator heavy across the entire state And that's a function of just where the grid is, the kind of time it takes to get things built to us and just overall where that state is.

我認為正確的思考方式是我們何時擁有可靠的電力。您可以從我們的營運中看到，我們從未也不會期望因電力可靠性而出現報價、停機或生產失誤。我確實認為這是一個未來提高效率的機會，LOE 方面可能會看到這一點。我們的新墨西哥州在整個州的發電量仍然很大，這取決於電網的位置、為我們建造東西所需的時間以及該州的整體情況。

I'm hopeful that maybe new the kind of new federal regulations, etcetera, may help speed that up a little bit. But on balance, that's something that we'd like to continue to improve. I don't know if that's working with the utilities, which we are, or building some of that out ourselves, which we are also looking into. But I wouldn't view it as a reliability concern. It's more just the efficiencies of if we can get off of generator and onto overhead power or onto using our own gas in the field. I think you'll see a cost savings that comes alongside it.

我希望新的聯邦法規等可能有助於加快這一速度。但總的來說，這是我們希望繼續改進的地方。我不知道這是否是與公用事業公司合作（我們正在這樣做），還是我們自己建造了一些公用事業公司（我們也在研究這一點）。但我不認為這是一個可靠性問題。更重要的是我們是否可以擺脫發電機並使用架空電力或在現場使用我們自己的天然氣來提高效率。我認為您會看到隨之而來的成本節省。

Perfect. Thanks for the time.

完美的。謝謝你的時間。

You bet.

你打賭。

Kevin MacCurdy, Pickering Energy Partners.

凱文·麥克科迪，皮克林能源合作夥伴。

Hey, good morning, guys. Following up on the drilling efficiencies, with the faster cycle times, how many more wells does that translate to a year? I guess, to ask another way, does the 12 rigs -- and I think you said three to four completion crews, does that equal something more than 270 wells a year kind of using your leading-edge rates?

嘿，早上好，夥計們。隨著鑽井效率的提高，循環時間越來越短，一年可以增加多少口井？我想，換個方式問，12 個鑽機——我想你說的是三到四個完井人員，是否相當於使用你的領先價格每年超過 270 口井？

Yes, probably slightly just because if you think about it, we didn't have that January 1 this year and we have it now. So there's some amount of the 20 we added this year are -- was growing over the course of the year. If you took our true run rate now, maybe it's $2.75 or something. I don't know what exactly, but it's probably slightly more than the $2.70.

是的，可能只是因為如果你仔細想想，我們今年沒有 1 月 1 日，但現在有了。因此，我們今年新增的 20 個項目中，有一部分在這一年中一直在成長。如果您現在了解我們的真實運行價格，可能是 2.75 美元或其他。我不知道具體是什麼，但可能比 2.70 美元略高一些。

Got you. Appreciate that. And as a follow up, I wanted to touch on NGLs. The last two quarters have seen a big step up in NGL volumes, and price has been relatively solid. What's changed there? Is that a representative of the change in production mix in drilling? Or is there a change in how you're marketing your NGLs?

明白你了。很欣賞這一點。作為後續行動，我想談談 NGL。過去兩個季度，液化天然氣銷售量大幅增加，價格也相對穩定。那裡發生了什麼變化？這是否代表了鑽井生產結構的改變？或者您的 NGL 行銷方式是否改變了？

Really just more ethane recovery driven by weak Waha -- probably weak basin gas pricing. So we're basically recovering NGLs, slightly less gas, but an overall uplift to BOEs.

事實上，更多的乙烷回收是由瓦哈疲軟推動的——可能是盆地天然氣定價疲軟。因此，我們基本上正在回收液化天然氣，天然氣略有減少，但總體上提高了京東方的產量。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Phillips Johnston, Capital One.

菲利普斯約翰斯頓，《第一資本》。

Thanks for the question. First is on GP&T unit cost. Looks like you're expecting to be sort of at that high in the guidance range sort of implying an uptick in the back half of the year versus the first half. I seem to recall that [there are] properties that include some midstream ownership there. So can you maybe talk about the drivers there?

謝謝你的提問。首先是 GP&T 單位成本。看來您預計會在指導範圍內達到如此高的水平，這意味著今年下半年與上半年相比會有所上升。我似乎記得那裡的[有]財產包括一些中游所有權。那麼您能談談那裡的司機嗎？

Yes. GP&T is always just going to be kind of where we pop wells, and there's slight variance in kind of contract rates depending on that mix. So nothing out of the ordinary there. Oxy's midstream assets, but that's a little bit separate than GP&T. It will have modest upward pressure on GP&T, but we're talking pennies.

是的。GP&T 總是會成為我們開採油井的地方，根據這種組合，合約費率會略有差異。所以那裡沒有什麼不尋常的。Oxy 的中游資產，但這與 GP&T 有點不同。這將對 GP&T 產生適度的上行壓力，但我們談論的是便士。

Okay. Sounds good. And then can you maybe talk about where you expect to end the year in terms of the next 12 months PDP decline rate and what that might look like relative to where you came in the year given the Barilla Draw deal and a few other moving parts?

好的。聽起來不錯。然後，您能否談談您預計今年結束時未來 12 個月的 PDP 下降率，以及考慮到 Barilla Draw 交易和其他一些變動因素，相對於您今年的情況，情況會如何？

I don't think our decline rate is going to change much. The Barilla Draw helps a little, but the growth that we've had this year from an organic basis probably offsets it. So I'd call it same kind of mid to high-30s that we've been in for the last year or two.

我認為我們的下降率不會有太大變化。巴里勒抽獎有一點幫助，但我們今年的有機成長可能會抵消它。所以我認為這與我們過去一兩年所處的30多歲中高水平是一樣的。

Yes. Okay. Sounds good. Thank you.

是的。好的。聽起來不錯。謝謝。

Paul Diamond, Citi.

保羅戴蒙德，花旗銀行。

Good morning. Thanks for taking the call. Just a quick one on the ground game. Is current pricing volatility really shifted any of those bid asks, or is that still something that's going to be a consistent part of that organic growth story going forward?

早安.感謝您接聽電話。只是一場快速的地面遊戲。當前的定價波動是否真的改變了這些出價，或者這仍然是未來有機成長故事的一致部分？

Yes, we're highly confident it will be a part of our growth story going forward. I think that's been something we've been doing successfully out here in Midland for nine years and our business development team and our land teams are extremely good at. I do think the volatility you saw in Q3 definitely caused it to be a bit of a slower quarter on the ground game side. I think that there's a lot of natural fluctuations and that can end up being pretty lumpy on when deals actually get done.

是的，我們非常有信心它將成為我們未來發展故事的一部分。我認為這是我們在米德蘭九年來一直成功地做的事情，我們的業務開發團隊和土地團隊非常擅長。我確實認為你在第三季度看到的波動肯定導致了地面遊戲方面的季度放緩。我認為存在著許多自然波動，當交易實際完成時，最終可能會變得相當不穩定。

But yes, I think when you see the kind of volatility we've seen in the last four months, I think that definitely widens bid ask spreads. But over time, we'll see some more consistency or people will get used to the volatility, and I think we'll continue what's been a really strong pace the last couple of years on the ground game side.

但是，是的，我認為當你看到過去四個月我們看到的那種波動時，我認為這肯定會擴大買賣價差。但隨著時間的推移，我們會看到更多的一致性，或者人們會習慣波動性，我認為我們將繼續過去幾年在地面遊戲方面的強勁步伐。

Got it. Appreciate it. And just one quick follow up on the -- you talked about 60%, 70% kind of longer-term goal on Gulf Coast or non-Waha pricing. Just wanted to get an idea of how we should think about that in cadence over next several years. Is that more linear or will it be more lumpy? I guess, how should we think about that progression?

知道了。欣賞它。我想快速跟進一下——您談到了墨西哥灣沿岸或非 Waha 定價的 60%、70% 的長期目標。只是想知道我們在未來幾年應該如何有節奏地思考這個問題。是更加線性還是更加不穩定？我想，我們該如何看待這項進展？

I think it'll be more linear. I think there's some stuff that we're working on today that should have effect on in a much nearer-term capacity. And I think some of the things are going to be more slow burn. But I think we're trying to get there as over the next couple of years, not kind of next quarter. Kind of some -- we should have some fruits from our labor that we can share much sooner than that. But I think over time, we'll just be chipping away at it.

我認為它會更加線性。我認為我們今天正在做的一些事情應該會在短期內產生影響。我認為有些事情將會更加緩慢地燃燒。但我認為我們正在努力在未來幾年內實現這一目標，而不是下個季度。有點——我們應該從我們的勞動中獲得一些成果，我們可以比這更快地分享。但我認為隨著時間的推移，我們會逐漸解決這個問題。

Understood. Appreciate your time.

明白了。珍惜您的時間。

(Operator Instructions) Noah Hungness, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）Noah Hungness，美國銀行。

Good morning, guys. I guess I wanted to start off on LOE. It seems like your LOE costs continue to trend below the low end of guidance. What's driving that? And then could we -- is it fair to assume that kind of where 3Q LOE was is kind of a good go-forward assumption?

早安，夥計們。我想我想從《LOE》開始。您的 LOE 成本似乎繼續低於指導的低端。是什麼推動了這一點？那麼我們是否可以——假設 3Q LOE 的位置是一個很好的前進假設，這是否公平？

Yes. I mean, so just as a reminder, we've kind of always said, yes, the low end of the guidance range is where we thought we'd be. We got the Earthstone stuff integrated better and faster than we thought, which kind of had us trending in that 550 range. I do think you'll see in Q4 a slight uptick from there due to the Oxy, Barilla Draw. That asset, I'd say, we expect really quickly to get it back to something close to where PR historically is.

是的。我的意思是，提醒一下，我們總是說，是的，指導範圍的低端就是我們認為的位置。我們比我們想像的更好更快地整合了 Earthstone 的東西，這讓我們在 550 範圍內趨向於發展。我確實認為，由於 Oxy、Barilla 平局，您會在第四季度看到略有上升。我想說的是，我們預計該資產很快就會恢復到接近公關歷史水準的水準。

But for the first month of Q4, it was still operated by Oxy. So you'll see a slight uptick in Q4. And then I think as we get into next year, we hope to get LE kind of back down to that, call it, 550 range, so yes. I don't think below the guidance range, but somewhere in the 550, 560 range is probably where we are over the next kind of medium term.

但在第四季的第一個月，它仍然由 Oxy 營運。所以你會看到第四季略有上升。然後我認為，當我們進入明年時，我們希望讓 LE 回到那個，稱之為 550 範圍，所以是的。我認為不會低於指導範圍，但 550、560 範圍內的某個位置可能是我們在下一個中期的位置。

Makes sense. And then the next question is just kind of on use of cash. I mean, with the revolver paid down, how should we kind of think about the use of the free cash flow moving forward, excluding the payment for the base dividend? Should we just expect it to build on the balance sheet?

有道理。下一個問題就是關於現金的使用。我的意思是，隨著左輪手槍的支付，我們應該如何考慮未來自由現金流的使用，不包括基本股利的支付？我們是否應該期望它建立在資產負債表上？

Yes. I mean, I think kind of what we do with our free cash flow is going to be dependent on the kind of reinvestment opportunities we see in front of us. I think we've been really clear. If we see the right accretive acquisitions that that's still what we're trying to do strategically, we're going to pursue those. I think if we see the right dislocations in the stock price, we'd be excited to lean in heavily on the buyback.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們如何利用自由現金流將取決於我們面前的再投資機會。我想我們已經非常清楚了。如果我們看到正確的增值收購，這仍然是我們在策略上嘗試做的事情，我們將繼續進行這些收購。我認為，如果我們看到股價出現正確的錯位，我們會很高興大力支持回購。

But kind of absent either of those opportunities, we're excited to kind of put that cash to the balance sheet. I think that the balance sheet could be kind of paying down some debt like long-term debt like we did earlier this quarter. Or frankly, I think we like accruing some amount of cash on the balance sheet today. I think we like the strategic flexibility that that gives us and just kind of further enhances our liquidity profile and the Fortress balance sheet that we're really proud of.

但如果缺少這些機會，我們很高興能將這些現金計入資產負債表。我認為資產負債表可能會償還一些債務，例如長期債務，就像我們本季早些時候所做的那樣。或者坦白說，我認為我們今天喜歡在資產負債表上增加一些現金。我認為我們喜歡它給我們帶來的戰略靈活性，並且進一步增強了我們的流動性狀況和我們真正引以為豪的 Fortress 資產負債表。

Great to hear, guys. Thank you so much.

很高興聽到，夥計們。太感謝了。

Thank you. At this time, I'm showing no further questions in queue. I will now turn the call back to James Walter for closing remarks.

謝謝。目前，我在隊列中沒有顯示任何其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回詹姆斯沃特（James Walter）做總結發言。

As you can see from the results we reported today, the business continues to perform at a very high level, which sets the company up well for the quarters years to come. As we head into next year, we plan to build on our track record as the lowest cost operator in the Delaware to continue to drive outsized returns for our shareholders. Thanks to everyone for joining the call today and for continuing to follow the Permian Resources story.

正如您從我們今天報告的業績中看到的那樣，該業務繼續保持很高的水平，這使該公司在未來幾季保持良好的勢頭。進入明年，我們計劃鞏固我們作為特拉華州成本最低營運商的記錄，繼續為我們的股東帶來豐厚的回報。感謝大家今天加入電話會議並繼續關註二疊紀資源的故事。

Thank you. This does conclude the Permian Resources third-quarter 2024 earnings call. Please disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。Permian Resources 2024 年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。請此時斷開您的線路，祝您有美好的一天。