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Operator
Operator
Good morning. My name is Warren, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the third quarter 2026 PPG earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)
早安。我叫 Warren,今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線員。此刻,我謹代表公司歡迎各位參加 PPG 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)
I would now like to turn the conference over to Alex Lopez, Vice President of Investor Relations and Operational Finance. Please go ahead, sir.
接下來我想把會議交給投資人關係與營運財務副總裁 Alex Lopez。先生,請開始。
Alex Lopez - Vice President of Investor Relations and Operational Finance
Alex Lopez - Vice President of Investor Relations and Operational Finance
Thank you, Warren, and good morning, everyone. This is Alex Lopez. Joining me today from PPG are Tim Knavish, Chairman and CEO; and Jamie Beggs, Senior Vice President and CFO. Our remarks relate to the financial information released on October 27, 2026.
謝謝你,Warren,各位早安。我是 Alex Lopez。今天與我一同出席的 PPG 團隊成員包括董事長兼執行長 Tim Knavish,以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Jamie Beggs。我們的發言將以 2026 年 10 月 27 日發布的財務資訊為基礎。
Supporting materials are available in the Investor Center at ppg.com, and we will take questions following our prepared remarks. Both the prepared commentary and the discussion during this call may include forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. Forward-looking statements involve uncertainties and risks that may cause actual results to differ. Please read our cautionary statement on slide 2 of the presentation materials.
相關輔助資料可於 ppg.com 的投資人中心取得,我們將在事先準備的發言後開放提問。本次電話會議中的準備講稿與討論內容可能包含前瞻性陳述以及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。前瞻性陳述涉及不確定性與風險,可能導致實際結果有所差異。請閱讀簡報資料第 2 頁的警示性聲明。
Please refer to our presentation materials and SEC filings available on our Investor Center website for additional information and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures.
更多資訊以及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表,請參閱投資人中心網站上的簡報資料與 SEC 申報文件。
Tim, over to you.
Tim,交給你。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Alex. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings call. I will begin with highlights from our record third quarter, and then we'll share our outlook for the remainder of the year.
謝謝你,Alex。各位早安。歡迎參加我們 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。我將先分享我們創紀錄第三季的重點,接著說明今年剩餘期間的展望。
Before reviewing our results, I would like to once again thank our employees for their dedication and resilience during this challenging period in many regions of the world. Please continue to prioritize your safety and the safety of your families above all else.
在回顧業績之前,我想再次感謝我們的員工在全球多個地區面臨挑戰的期間所展現的投入與韌性。請各位持續把自身與家人的安全放在第一位。
This was an outstanding quarter for PPG. We delivered record third quarter earnings, and our teams around the world executed with exceptional discipline, driving a 5% increase in organic sales, including 2% volume growth.
這對 PPG 來說是非常出色的一季。我們交出創紀錄的第三季獲利表現,全球團隊以卓越的紀律力執行,帶動有機銷售成長 5%,其中銷量成長 2%。
This marks our seventh consecutive quarter of organic sales growth. We outpaced the industry by 300 basis points, clear evidence of the quality of our businesses, our innovation, our technology, and the value that we deliver to our customers. As we discussed over the past several quarters, we have been systematically building our organic growth muscle, and the results are now clearly visible. Our strategy to deliver product innovation and productivity solutions for our customers is accelerating our momentum. third-quarter net sales grew 7% year over year to $4.4 billion.
這是我們連續第七季有機銷售成長。我們領先產業 300 個基點,清楚證明我們事業體的品質、創新能力、技術實力,以及為客戶創造的價值。如同過去幾季所提到的,我們一直在系統性地強化有機成長能力,而成果如今已清楚可見。我們以產品創新與生產力解決方案為客戶創造價值的策略,正在加速我們的動能。第三季淨銷售額年增 7%,達 44 億美元。
Adjusted earnings per share increased 6% to $2.25, a third-quarter record, and total company adjusted EBITDA margin was above 18%. Exceptional results in our differentiated Aerospace and Architectural Coatings Latin America businesses led this performance. Importantly, our commercial actions fully offset cost of goods sold inflation during the quarter, a significant milestone for us.
調整後每股盈餘成長 6% 至 2.25 美元,創第三季新高;全公司調整後 EBITDA 利潤率超過 18%。我們具差異化的航太與拉丁美洲建築塗料業務表現卓越,帶動了本季成果。更重要的是,我們的商業行動在本季完全抵銷了銷貨成本通膨,這對我們而言是一項重要里程碑。
We achieved this in just six months, half the time it took in the 2021 inflation cycle, and one-third the time it took in the 2016 cycle. We remain focused on achieving appropriate value for our unique products and solutions with targeted actions where necessary to address inflation and market dynamics, all enabled by the innovative solutions that we provide to our customers.
我們僅用六個月就達成,所需時間是 2021 年通膨循環的一半、也是 2016 年循環的三分之一。我們仍聚焦於透過必要時的精準行動,因應通膨與市場動態,為我們獨特的產品與解決方案取得合理價值;而這一切都仰賴我們提供給客戶的創新解決方案作為支撐。
We also repurchased approximately $150 million worth of shares during the quarter, and our year-to-date operating cash flow is approximately $1.2 billion, about $100 million higher than last year. Jamie will provide more detail on our balance sheet and cash shortly.
本季我們也回購了約 1.5 億美元的股票;年初至今的營運現金流約為 12 億美元,較去年高約 1 億美元。Jamie 稍後將就資產負債表與現金狀況提供更多細節。
Turning to our segment performance. Global Architectural Coatings grew net sales 4% year over year to approximately $1.1 billion. Organic sales increased 2%, driven by higher selling prices in all regions. Lower sales volumes in Europe were offset by solid growth in Mexico.
接著看各事業部表現。全球建築塗料淨銷售額年增 4% 至約 11 億美元。有機銷售成長 2%,主要由各地區售價上調所帶動。歐洲銷量下滑被墨西哥的穩健成長所抵銷。
Organic sales for Architectural Coatings Latin America and Asia Pacific increased by a mid-single-digit percentage, driven by higher selling prices and volume growth in Latin America. In Mexico, retail sales were robust, and project-related sales grew at a moderate pace as foreign direct investment sequentially recovers.
拉丁美洲與亞太地區的建築塗料有機銷售以中個位數百分比成長,主要受惠於售價上調以及拉丁美洲的銷量成長。在墨西哥,零售銷售表現強勁;隨著外國直接投資逐季回升,專案相關銷售以溫和速度成長。
In EMEA, organic sales increased by a low-single-digit percentage as higher selling prices more than offset lower sales volumes. Our European architectural business continues to benefit from strong execution of our strategy.
在 EMEA(歐洲、中東與非洲),有機銷售以低個位數百分比成長,較高的售價上調幅度足以抵銷較低的銷量。我們的歐洲建築塗料業務持續受惠於策略的強力執行。
Productivity enhancements, footprint optimization, and structural cost actions are improving efficiency and are driving year-to-date earnings and margin expansion. Segment EBITDA grew 19%, and EBITDA margin expanded 300 basis points to 24%.
生產力提升、據點版圖最佳化以及結構性成本措施正在改善效率,並推動年初至今的獲利與利潤率擴張。事業部 EBITDA 成長 19%,EBITDA 利潤率擴張 300 個基點至 24%。
Looking ahead, we expect fourth quarter organic sales to range from flat to growth of low-single-digit percentage year over year, along with EBITDA margin expansion versus prior year.
展望未來,我們預期第四季有機銷售年增率介於持平至低個位數百分比成長,同時 EBITDA 利潤率相較去年將擴張。
Our Performance Coatings segment delivered net sales growth of 10% to $1.6 billion. Organic sales increased an outstanding 8%, led by 5% sales volume growth. Aerospace delivered another exceptional quarter, with double-digit organic sales growth, and our order backlog remained at near $300 million. Demand for our unique Aerospace products remains robust. And shortly, I will go into more detail about the investments we are making to support this outstanding growth for today and well into the future.
我們的高性能塗料事業部淨銷售額成長 10% 至 16 億美元。有機銷售大幅成長 8%,其中銷量成長 5% 為主要動能。航太業務再度交出卓越的一季,有機銷售呈雙位數成長,訂單積壓量仍接近 3 億美元。市場對我們獨特的航太產品需求依然強勁。稍後我也會更詳細說明我們為了支撐當前以及未來長期的亮眼成長所進行的投資。
Automotive Refinish organic sales increased by a mid-single-digit percentage, driven by both higher selling prices and higher sales volumes. In the US, collision claims versus prior improved sequentially from negative 6% in the second quarter to negative 4% in the third quarter.
汽車修補漆有機銷售以中個位數百分比成長,主要由售價上調與銷量增加共同帶動。在美國,與去年同期相比的碰撞理賠件數按季改善,從第二季的負 6% 改善至第三季的負 4%。
Protective and Marine Coatings organic sales increased by a high-single-digit percentage, extending this business's streak to 14 consecutive quarters of sales volume growth. This included above-market marine volume growth in Asia Pacific, driven by our innovative technologies. Segment EBITDA grew 21%, and EBITDA margin expanded 220 basis points to 23.9%. In the fourth quarter, we expect organic sales growth in the range of low- to mid-single-digit percentage year over year, with further EBITDA margin expansion versus prior years.
防護與船舶塗料有機銷售以高個位數百分比成長,使該業務連續 14 季銷量成長。其中包含亞太地區船舶領域高於市場的銷量成長,主要由我們的創新技術所驅動。事業部 EBITDA 成長 21%,EBITDA 利潤率擴張 220 個基點至 23.9%。第四季我們預期有機銷售年增率介於低至中個位數百分比成長,且 EBITDA 利潤率相較前幾年將進一步擴張。
Now turning to Aerospace, this business is a significant growth engine for PPG, delivering its 22nd consecutive quarter of organic sales growth, with quarterly year-over-year growth during that period averaging above 10%. This year, we expect to generate more than $2 billion in sales in Aerospace, making it one of our larger businesses.
接著談航太業務。此業務是 PPG 重要的成長引擎,已連續第 22 季實現有機銷售成長;在此期間,各季年增率平均超過 10%。今年我們預期航太業務銷售額將超過 20 億美元,使其成為我們較大的事業之一。
We are investing more than $500 million to expand capacity and improve productivity across the business. This includes a recently announced $70 million expansion of our aerospace transparencies operations in Huntsville, Alabama. This project will increase operational efficiency and create additional manufacturing capacity to support growing customer demand for aircraft cockpit and passenger windows.
我們正投資超過 5 億美元,以擴充產能並提升整體業務的生產力。其中包括近期宣布在阿拉巴馬州亨茨維爾(Huntsville)的航太透明件(transparencies)營運擴建計畫,投資額為 7,000 萬美元。此專案將提升營運效率,並新增製造產能,以支援客戶對飛機駕駛艙與客艙窗戶日益成長的需求。
In addition to this CapEx, we continue to invest in Aerospace R&D to further expand our technology offering. These ongoing investments, combined with our broad portfolio of highly specified products, technology leadership, global footprint, and deep customer relationships, reinforce our confidence in the long-term growth outlook for this unique business.
除上述資本支出(CapEx)外,我們也持續投資航太研發,以進一步擴展我們的技術供給。這些持續性的投資,加上我們涵蓋廣泛且高度規格化的產品組合、技術領導地位、全球布局以及深厚的客戶關係,進一步強化我們對此獨特業務長期成長展望的信心。
In the Industrial Coatings segment, third quarter net sales grew 5% to approximately $1.7 billion. Organic sales increased 4%, with equal contributions from higher selling prices and sales volumes, reflecting the benefits of new business wins and successful launches.
在工業塗料(Industrial Coatings)部門,第三季淨銷售額成長5%,至約17億美元。有機銷售成長4%,其中較高的銷售價格與銷售量各貢獻一半,反映新業務得標與成功上市所帶來的效益。
In Automotive OEM Coatings, organic sales declined by a low-single-digit percentage as a result of lower industry builds. Importantly, our team drove a sales volume performance that outpaced global automotive industry production.
在汽車原廠(OEM)塗料(Automotive OEM Coatings)方面,由於產業整體產量下降,有機銷售以低個位數百分比下滑。重要的是,我們團隊推動的銷售量表現優於全球汽車產業產量。
Industrial Coatings delivered strong organic sales growth of a high-single-digit percentage, driven by sales volume and selling price growth in all regions. This marks the second consecutive quarter of growth for this business, with strength in heavy-duty equipment and general finishes, including electrical infrastructure for data centers.
工業塗料實現強勁的有機銷售成長(高個位數百分比),各地區的銷售量與售價皆帶動成長。這是該業務連續第二季成長,重型設備與一般塗裝表現強勁,其中包括資料中心電力基礎設施相關需求。
Packaging Coatings delivered outstanding double-digit organic sales growth, with sales volumes now up more than 20% on a two-year stack basis. PPG is benefiting from share gains driven by our advantaged BPA non-intent technologies, our global manufacturing footprint, and our long-standing technical partnerships with our customers.
包裝塗料(Packaging Coatings)交出亮眼的雙位數有機銷售成長,若以兩年疊加基礎計算,銷售量目前已成長超過20%。PPG 受惠於市占提升,動能來自我們具優勢的 BPA non-intent 技術、全球製造布局,以及與客戶長期建立的技術合作夥伴關係。
Industrial segment EBITDA declined 11%, and EBITDA margin decreased 260 basis points to 14.4%, as cost of goods sold inflation outpaced the timing of index-based pricing. Higher selling prices and volumes partially offset that pressure, and we are now beginning to realize the benefits of index pricing.
工業部門 EBITDA 下降11%,EBITDA 利潤率下滑260個基點至14.4%,原因是銷貨成本(COGS)通膨上升速度快於指數連動定價(index-based pricing)的反映時點。較高的售價與銷售量部分抵銷了該壓力,而我們現在也開始逐步實現指數定價的效益。
In the fourth quarter, we expect segment organic sales essentially flat year over year. We expect the pace of EBITDA margin compression to moderate sequentially as index-based pricing and our productivity initiatives take hold. In our Industrial segment, our team continues to win additional business driven by our technology solutions that enable our customers' success.
展望第四季,我們預期部門有機銷售與去年同期大致持平。隨著指數連動定價與我們的生產力提升措施開始發揮作用,我們預期 EBITDA 利潤率壓縮的速度將較前一季放緩。在工業部門,我們團隊持續憑藉能協助客戶成功的技術解決方案,贏得更多新增業務。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Jamie Beggs, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, to discuss our balance sheet and cash flow, as well as our fourth quarter and full-year financial outlook. Jamie?
接下來,我將把電話交給我們的資深副總裁兼財務長 Jamie Beggs,請他說明資產負債表與現金流,以及第四季與全年財務展望。Jamie?
Jamie Beggs - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Jamie Beggs - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Thank you, Tim, and good morning, everyone. Our robust balance sheet continues to provide financial flexibility to invest in our businesses and return cash to shareholders. We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $1.6 billion. Net debt was $5.2 billion, a decrease of approximately $200 million from the third quarter of last year.
謝謝你,Tim,各位早安。我們穩健的資產負債表持續提供財務彈性,使我們能投資於各項業務並回饋現金給股東。本季結束時,我們的現金與短期投資為16億美元。淨負債為52億美元,較去年第三季約減少2億美元。
Year-to-date cash from operating activities was approximately $1.2 billion, about $100 million higher year over year. As a result, our net leverage moved lower to 1.8 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA. We repurchased approximately $150 million of shares during the quarter, bringing year-to-date repurchases to $320 million. We also paid more than $480 million in dividends through the first nine months of the year.
年初至今,營運活動產生的現金約為12億美元,較去年同期增加約1億美元。因此,我們的淨槓桿下降至淨負債對調整後 EBITDA 的1.8倍。本季我們回購約1.5億美元股票,使年初至今的回購總額達3.2億美元。此外,我們在今年前九個月也支付了超過4.8億美元的股利。
Our cash deployment remains focused on maximizing shareholder value creation and maintaining a strong balance sheet.
我們的現金運用仍聚焦於最大化股東價值創造,並維持強健的資產負債表。
Looking ahead, our organic growth momentum and commercial actions position us well for the remainder of the year. For the fourth quarter, we expect organic sales growth of a low-single-digit percentage, led by Aerospace, Architectural Coatings in Latin America, and Packaging Coatings. We expect total company adjusted EBITDA margin to range from a flat to an increase of 100 basis points year over year.
展望未來,我們的有機成長動能與商業行動,使我們在今年剩餘期間具備良好態勢。就第四季而言,我們預期有機銷售成長為低個位數百分比,主要由航太、拉丁美洲建築塗料,以及包裝塗料帶動。我們預期全公司調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將介於與去年同期持平至增加100個基點。
Within the segments, we expect Global Architectural Coatings organic sales to be in the range of a flat to up a low-single-digit percentage. Performance Coatings organic sales are expected to grow by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage, while Industrial Coatings organic sales are expected to be in the range of a down to up a low-single-digit percentage.
就各部門而言,我們預期全球建築塗料(Global Architectural Coatings)有機銷售介於持平至成長低個位數百分比。性能塗料(Performance Coatings)有機銷售預期成長低至中個位數百分比,而工業塗料(Industrial Coatings)有機銷售預期介於下滑低個位數百分比至成長低個位數百分比。
We expect cost of goods sold inflation to be in the high-single-digit range in the fourth quarter. We plan to offset this pressure through our pricing actions as we realize appropriate value for the unique products and productivity solutions we provide to our customers. Considering our strong growth momentum and the execution of productivity programs, we are raising the midpoint of our full-year adjusted earnings per share outlook and narrowing the guidance range to $7.90 to $8.10 per share.
我們預期第四季銷貨成本(COGS)通膨將落在高個位數區間。我們計畫透過定價行動來抵銷此壓力,並就我們提供給客戶的獨特產品與生產力解決方案實現適當價值。考量我們強勁的成長動能與生產力計畫的執行,我們上調全年調整後每股盈餘(EPS)展望的中位數,並將指引區間縮窄至每股7.90至8.10美元。
With that, let me turn it back to Tim for closing remarks.
接下來,我把時間交還給 Tim 做結語。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Jamie. In closing, we delivered record third quarter earnings, which reinforces our confidence in PPG strategy and the strength of our business model. We delivered outstanding organic sales growth driven by both volume and price, fully offset cost of goods sold inflation, expanded earnings, delivered adjusted company EBITDA margin above 18%, and generated robust cash flow through disciplined execution across our portfolio.
謝謝你,Jamie。總結來說,我們第三季創下獲利新高,進一步強化我們對 PPG 策略與商業模式韌性的信心。我們在銷售量與價格雙重帶動下,實現卓越的有機銷售成長,完全抵銷銷貨成本通膨、擴大獲利,使調整後公司 EBITDA 利潤率超過18%,並透過對投資組合的紀律性執行,產生強勁現金流。
Additionally, our outside the can productivity solutions for PPG's customers are growing at three times faster than the average growth rate of our portfolio, and with a higher margin profile, and now represent a solid double-digit percentage of our total sales.
此外,PPG 為客戶提供的「罐外」(outside the can)生產力解決方案,其成長速度為我們投資組合平均成長率的三倍,且具更高的利潤率結構,目前已占我們總銷售額的穩健雙位數百分比。
Our customers greatly value the innovative solutions that we provide. Our investments in technology, brands, customer relationships differentiate us and enable us to solve some of our customers' hardest problems.
我們的客戶高度重視我們所提供的創新解決方案。我們在技術、品牌與客戶關係上的投資,使我們具備差異化優勢,並能協助解決客戶面臨的一些最棘手問題。
Our field service capabilities and installed base keep us close to those customers, while our channel access and global reach provide a strong foundation to serve them with world-class effectiveness. Combined with our flexible cost structure and solid financial position, these capabilities give us the capacity to invest and win. We see meaningful opportunities to drive further organic growth through innovation, share gains, and continued investment in our differentiated businesses. We will also selectively consider portfolio actions to accelerate our strategy and drive shareholder returns.
我們的現場服務能力與既有裝機基礎(installed base)使我們能貼近這些客戶;同時,我們的通路觸達能力與全球覆蓋範圍,為我們以世界級效率服務客戶提供堅實基礎。結合我們具彈性的成本結構與穩健的財務狀況,這些能力讓我們有實力投資並取得勝利。我們看到透過創新、市占提升,以及持續投資於具差異化的業務,推動進一步有機成長的重大機會。我們也將選擇性評估投資組合行動,以加速策略推進並提升股東報酬。
We are focused on creating long-term shareholder value by both investing organically and by evaluating opportunities to enhance our mix of high-growth and high-margin businesses. We will continue to allocate capital with discipline, balancing investments in growth with maintaining a strong financial position, and returning cash to our shareholders.
我們聚焦於透過有機投資,以及評估可提升高成長與高利潤業務組合的機會,來創造長期股東價值。我們將持續以紀律方式配置資本,在成長投資、維持強健財務狀況與回饋股東現金之間取得平衡。
Thank you to our PPG team around the world for their focus and execution. Their dedication enables us to serve our customers and deliver on our purpose every day, we protect and beautify the world. And we appreciate your continued confidence in PPG.
感謝全球 PPG 團隊的專注與執行力。他們的投入讓我們每天都能服務客戶並實踐我們的使命:我們保護並美化世界。也感謝各位持續對 PPG 的信任。
That concludes our prepared remarks. Warren, we are now ready to begin the Q&A session. Please open the line for our first question.
以上為我們事先準備的發言。Warren,我們現在準備開始問答環節。請開放線路進行第一個提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.
(接線員指示)David Begleiter,德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)。
David Begleiter - Analyst
David Begleiter - Analyst
Good morning. Tim, on industrial coatings, two things. Can you talk to when you expect the index-based pricing to catch up to the COGS inflation? In terms of your Q4 guide of roughly flat organic sales growth versus up 4% in Q3, can you talk to what is driving that more modest assumption in Q4? Thank you.
早安。Tim,關於工業塗料有兩點。你能談談你預期指數連動定價何時能追上銷貨成本(COGS)通膨嗎?另外,就你們對第四季的指引:有機銷售成長大致持平,相較第三季成長4%,你能談談第四季為何做出較保守假設的驅動因素嗎?謝謝。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, David. Thank you. So on industrial coatings index pricing, we started to see a little bit of that benefit in Q3 and Q4, but most of that benefit will come in Q1 and Q2 of next year just because of the structure of our contracts across our businesses. That said, we expect the margin compression to moderate as we move through Q4.
當然可以,David。謝謝。關於工業塗料的指數定價,我們在第三季與第四季開始看到一些效益,但由於我們各項業務合約結構的關係,大部分效益將在明年第一季與第二季顯現。即便如此,隨著我們進入第四季,我們預期利潤率壓縮將會放緩。
Beyond that, as far as when it exactly matches neutrality in that segment, while we have met neutrality across company, we will have to see what our '27 guide is and what happens to inflation in Q1 and Q2. But right now, our Q4 outlook is margin compression to be slightly better than it was in Q3. As for volumes, most of that is based on automotive builds.
除此之外,就該區隔何時能精準達到中性而言,雖然我們在公司整體層面已達到中性,但仍需觀察我們對於 2027 年的指引,以及第一季與第二季通膨的走勢。不過就目前而言,我們對第四季的展望是:利潤率壓縮將略優於第三季。至於銷量,多數是以汽車整車產量為基礎。
And as you know, we use S&P's IHS, and they have reduced their builds in Q4, and in particular in China. And most of what you see, the delta between Q3 and Q4 growth for that segment comes from that factor.
而如你所知,我們採用標普的 IHS 數據,他們已下調第四季的產量預估,尤其是在中國。你所看到的該事業部第三季與第四季成長之間的差異(delta),大多來自這個因素。
Operator
Operator
John McNulty, BMO Capital Markets.
John McNulty,BMO 資本市場。
John Mcnulty - Analyst
John Mcnulty - Analyst
Yeah, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to unpack the refinish business a little bit. You did largely as you had called out. I think you had said you expected to kind of see an inflection, but clearly the industry didn't.
好的,謝謝讓我提問。我想更深入拆解一下修補漆(refinish)業務。你們的表現大致如同先前所提。我記得你們曾說預期會看到一個拐點,但顯然整個產業並沒有出現。
I think you cited claims were down 4% still, and yet you were up. That seems like a bigger outperformance than what we normally see, even from your refinish business. I guess, can you help us to understand what drove that on the volume front? If there were any kind of major account wins or if it was just maybe some of the inventory timing, maybe just a little perspective on what drove that kind of significant, looks like mid-single-digit outperformance.
我想你們提到理賠件數仍下降 4%,但你們卻是成長。這看起來比我們平常看到的表現更強,即便以你們的修補漆業務來說也是如此。我想問的是,你能否協助我們理解在銷量面是什麼驅動了這點?是否有任何重大客戶的贏單,或只是一些庫存時點因素?也請分享一下,究竟是什麼帶來這種顯著的、看起來約中個位數的超額表現。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. John, first of all, you are right. This has played out. It has been a painful four quarters for us since we first raised this issue last year that we would see four quarters worth of destocking, and that is behind us now.
是的。John,首先你說得對。事情確實是這樣發展的。自從我們去年首次提出這個議題、表示將會看到連續四個季度的去庫存以來,對我們而言是痛苦的四個季度,而現在這段去庫存已經結束了。
And I would say that internally here, the quarter played out a little bit better than we expected, but not a huge amount better than we expected. It is a couple of things. One, the destocking is behind us, so you do have some more normalization of purchase orders. Body shop activity while still below where it was pre-COVID, incrementally, sequentially improving a bit.
我會說,在內部看來,本季的表現比我們預期稍好一些,但並沒有好到非常多。原因有幾點。第一,去庫存已經過去,因此採購訂單的模式更趨正常化。鈑噴廠(body shop)的活動量雖仍低於 COVID 前水準,但在邊際上、按季來看有些許改善。
From a share shift standpoint, this business always has share shift. We track net body shop wins, and while we cannot really point to anything huge for us, I know there is some other stuff happening out there.
從市占移轉的角度來看,這個業務一直都會有市占移轉。我們追蹤鈑噴廠的淨新增贏單(net body shop wins),雖然我們無法指出有任何對我們而言特別巨大的事件,但我知道外部市場確實還有一些其他事情正在發生。
We still win a couple hundred net body shops a month. But more than anything, it is the normalization of both the inventory patterns and slight normalization of the industry. In a way, I would summarize refinish going forward right now, clearly, activity levels at the end user are not back to where they were pre-COVID. We had, throughout 2025, US collision claims down like an average of 10% every single quarter.
我們每個月仍能淨增加幾百家鈑噴廠。但更重要的是,庫存模式與產業狀況都在走向正常化。某種程度上,我會這樣總結未來的修補漆:很明顯,終端用戶的活動水準尚未回到 COVID 前。在 2025 年全年,美國碰撞理賠件數每一季平均都下降約 10%。
Q1 and Q2 of this year, it has been minus 6%, Q3, minus 4%. So it is still an industry that is below 2019 activities. But some signs of normalization. The destocking is behind us.
今年第一季與第二季是下降 6%,第三季下降 4%。所以這仍是一個低於 2019 年活動水準的產業。但已出現一些正常化的跡象。去庫存已經結束。
We have got net body shop share wins, positive price. This is one of our business where we have a lot of outside the can solutions that drive additional revenue for us.
我們在鈑噴廠的淨市占贏單為正,價格也為正向。這是我們其中一個業務:我們有許多「罐外」(outside the can)的解決方案,能為我們帶來額外營收。
The other thing that has normalized, John, and then I will move on, is another factor that was really impacting 2025 was high auto insurance rates, and you have started to see those come down a bit. So a number of factors point to modest sequential normalization. Our inventory issue is behind us and net-net we are winning, but all in all, this was a little bit better than we expected, but not a ton.
另外一個已經正常化的因素,John,然後我就往下說:在 2025 年真正造成影響的另一個因素是汽車保險費率偏高,而你已開始看到這些費率略有下降。因此,多項因素都指向溫和的按季正常化。我們的庫存問題已經過去,整體而言我們是淨贏家,但總的來說,本季確實比我們預期稍好一些,但沒有好太多。
Operator
Operator
Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.
Kevin McCarthy,Vertical Research Partners。
Kevin McCarthy - Analyst
Kevin McCarthy - Analyst
Yes, thanks very much and good morning. Tim, I was wondering if you could elaborate on the industrial sub-segment within your Industrial Coatings segment. As I look at slide 8, you flagged that industrial posted high-single-digit growth at the sub-segment level there, and if I am not mistaken, I think that is probably the best in four years or so. I was wondering if you could kind of unpack how much of that is price acceleration versus volume acceleration and what your outlook is for that piece of the company.
是的,非常感謝,早安。Tim,我想請你進一步說明你們工業塗料(Industrial Coatings)事業部中的工業子分項。我看第 8 頁投影片,你們提到該子分項在子分項層級達到高個位數成長;如果我沒記錯,這可能是四年左右以來最好的表現。我想請你拆解一下,其中有多少來自價格加速、多少來自銷量加速,以及你對公司這一塊業務的展望。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. First, Kevin, you just made the day of Juliane Hefel, who runs that business for us, by calling out the best in four years, so thank you for that. I am really proud of this team for sequential improvement here. Q1, minus low single digits, Q2, up mid single digits, and Q3, up high single digits, and we feel really good about new business wins and pipeline going forward.
好的。首先,Kevin,你提到「四年來最佳」,這讓負責該業務的 Juliane Hefel 今天心情大好,所以謝謝你。我對這個團隊在此的按季改善感到非常自豪。第一季是小幅個位數下滑,第二季是中個位數成長,第三季是高個位數成長;我們對未來的新業務贏單與案源管線(pipeline)感到非常有信心。
So as far as the blend of how the team achieved that organic sales, it is almost exactly half volume and price. So we have got good momentum in the various pieces of that sub-seg or I am sorry, of that business. Think about powder, for example. We had double-digit growth in powder.
至於團隊如何達成這樣的有機銷售成長組合,幾乎正好是一半來自銷量、一半來自價格。因此,我們在該子分項的各個部分——抱歉,是在該業務的各個部分——都具備良好動能。以粉體塗料(powder)為例。我們的粉體塗料達到雙位數成長。
We called out heavy-duty equipment, mostly in the non-ag area. Transportation, we have got a nice little specialty business in there that is doing well.
我們也提到重型設備,主要是在非農業(non-ag)領域。在運輸方面,我們在其中有一個不錯的小型利基業務,表現良好。
All regions grew, and we did get some nice bumps from data-center-related electrical infrastructure. So it is fairly widespread, and it is not like we have seen, as you know, any big hockey stick improvement in industrial production. I would say a lot of this is just execution of the selling machine, the commercial excellence that this team has been working on for a number of years, and now we are starting to see it on the P&L.
所有地區都有成長,而且我們也從與資料中心相關的電力基礎設施中獲得一些不錯的增量。因此成長相當廣泛;而且如你所知,我們並沒有看到工業生產出現任何大幅「曲棍球棒式」的改善。我會說,這其中很大一部分只是銷售機器的執行力,也就是這個團隊多年來持續推動的商業卓越(commercial excellence),而現在我們開始在損益表(P&L)上看到成果。
Operator
Operator
Mike Harrison, Seaport Research Partners.
Mike Harrison,Seaport Research Partners。
Mike Harrison - Analyst
Mike Harrison - Analyst
Hi, good morning. I have kind of a two-part question on the global architectural coatings business. First of all, the strength in margin there, just wondering if the 24% EBITDA margin is something that you feel like you can sustain going forward in these seasonally stronger Q2 and Q3 quarters, or was there something unusual that helped to drive the margin strength and maybe suggests this is a high watermark? Then just digging in on architectural EMEA, curious on how the situation in France is potentially going to affect volumes and demand into Q4. Thanks.
嗨,早安。我對全球建築塗料(architectural coatings)業務有一個兩部分的問題。首先,該業務的利潤率表現很強,我想了解 24% 的 EBITDA 利潤率是否是你們認為在未來這些季節性更強的第二季與第三季也能維持的水準?還是有什麼不尋常的因素推動了利潤率走強,可能意味著這是高點?另外再深入問一下 EMEA 的建築塗料業務,我想了解法國的情勢可能會如何影響第四季的銷量與需求。謝謝。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Hey, Mike. On the first one, we have said, and I've consistently said, that our global architectural business should be a consistently 20% plus EBITDA business, and I believe that strongly. Q3 was a combination of two things.
好的。嗨,Mike。第一點,我們一直說——而且我也一再強調——我們的全球建築塗料業務應該是一個能夠穩定維持 20% 以上 EBITDA 的業務,我對此深信不疑。第三季是兩個因素的組合。
Yes, we had great execution by the team. We've got really strong brands, really strong innovative products, great relationships with our distribution partners, and that helped us from a mix standpoint as well as a price standpoint. So that definitely helped, and that was the biggest contributor to the strong margin you saw. Full transparency, if you look at our Mexico business here, we buy in dollars and we sell in pesos.
是的,團隊執行得非常好。我們擁有非常強的品牌、非常強的創新產品,與通路合作夥伴也有很好的關係,這些在產品組合(mix)以及價格面都對我們有幫助。因此這確實有幫助,而且是你所看到強勁利潤率的最大貢獻因素。完全透明地說,如果你看我們在墨西哥的業務,我們以美元採購、以披索銷售。
So we did get some help in Q3 from the stronger peso. So going forward, I don't like to say high watermark because that implies that there's a cap on what we can do.
所以我們在第三季確實從較強的披索獲得了一些助益。因此展望未來,我不太喜歡用「高水位」這個說法,因為那暗示我們能做的事情有上限。
What I will say is, our aspiration is this in total is a 20% plus EBITDA business. But we did have a bit of help in Q3 that you just watch the peso, and that'll give you a little indication of how much headwind or tailwind we'll have in our Mexico margin. As far as France, obviously it's terrible to watch on television and see the violence and destruction. So far, fortunately none of our stores have been affected.
我想說的是,我們的目標是整體成為一個 EBITDA 超過 20% 的業務。但第三季確實有一點外匯助力;你只要觀察披索,就能大致判斷我們在墨西哥毛利率會面臨多少逆風或順風。至於法國,顯然在電視上看到暴力與破壞令人難受。到目前為止,幸運的是我們的門市都沒有受到影響。
Obviously it's not likely to be a boost to consumer confidence or to construction activity, but so far we have not seen a demand impact, but we're watching that closely. We are seeing logistics impacts, some ability to move product around. So I'd say in the short term, Mike, that's all we're seeing.
顯然這不太可能提振消費者信心或建築活動,但到目前為止我們尚未看到需求面的影響,不過我們正密切關注。我們確實看到物流方面的影響,產品調度與移動有一些受限。所以我會說短期內,Mike,我們目前看到的就是這些。
But obviously longer term, it's not great for, first of all, the safety of the people on the ground there, but it's also not great for consumer confidence.
但顯然從長期來看,這首先對當地人員的安全不利,同時也不利於消費者信心。
Operator
Operator
James Hooper, Bernstein.
James Hooper,Bernstein。
James Hooper - Equity Analyst
James Hooper - Equity Analyst
Hi, good morning. I wanted to ask a little bit about industry consolidation. So clearly the merger going on in your space, there's a couple of disposals been announced. How are you thinking about those in M&A?
嗨,早安。我想問一下產業整併的情況。很明顯你們所處的領域正在進行併購,且已宣布了幾項資產處分。你們在併購(M&A)方面如何看待這些?
And as a follow-on, are your team seeing any changes to the competitive dynamics on the ground as we move towards these mergers completing? Thanks.
另外延伸一問,隨著這些合併逐步完成,你們的團隊是否看到第一線競爭態勢有任何變化?謝謝。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Okay. Hey, James. The first part, what's happened in Brazil, I think it was last year, obviously what's happened with Surventis and the legacy BASF business, and then you've got the pending merger of Akzo-Axalta. So far, and again, we don't have a deco business in Brazil.
好的。嗨,James。第一部分,巴西那邊發生的事情,我想是去年,顯然包括 Surventis 與 BASF 的既有業務,然後還有待完成的 Akzo-Axalta 合併案。到目前為止,而且再次強調,我們在巴西沒有裝飾塗料(deco)業務。
We have a tiny little boutique business basically in one state in the South, but nationally, we don't have a presence, so we're not really involved in whatever's going on there. And from Surventis, so far, we really haven't seen any change in behavior in the marketplace. And then, of course, it's still early days on Akzo-Axalta because they're not officially together yet, so we haven't really seen any change there. We'll do what we can to take advantage of any distraction.
我們只有一個非常小的精品型業務,基本上只在南部某一個州;但在全國層面我們沒有布局,所以那邊發生的事情我們其實沒有太多涉入。而就 Surventis 而言,到目前為止我們在市場上確實沒有看到任何行為改變。當然,Akzo-Axalta 也還在早期階段,因為他們尚未正式合併,所以我們也沒有真正看到那邊有什麼變化。我們會盡可能利用任何因整併帶來的分心效應。
We've been through those acquisitions ourselves in the past, so we'll do what we can to help customers that may be looking for opportunities. But I'd say so far, not much changing on the ground. As for dispositions, I think the Surventis, it's still fairly recent, so we'll see how that plays out over time. Nothing active now.
我們過去也經歷過那些收購案,所以我們會盡力協助可能在尋找機會的客戶。但我會說到目前為止,第一線並沒有太多改變。至於資產處分,我認為 Surventis 的案子仍算相當近期,所以我們會觀察它隨時間如何發展。目前沒有任何正在進行的案子。
With Akzo, we really weren't interested in their India business, weren't interested in their deco Southeast Asia business. The only thing that we're aware of kind of officially is wood here in the US, and frankly, doesn't fit our enterprise growth strategy. I know there's some rumors about another part of their business in Europe. If and when those rumors become a reality, we'll take a look at it, but it's not what I think about every night or every morning.
就 Akzo 而言,我們對他們的印度業務沒有興趣,對他們在東南亞的裝飾塗料(deco)業務也沒有興趣。我們唯一「正式」知道的項目是美國這邊的木器相關業務,而坦白說,這不符合我們的企業成長策略。我知道市場上有一些關於他們在歐洲另一部分業務的傳聞。如果、以及當那些傳聞成為現實,我們會看一看,但這不是我每天晚上或每天早上都在想的事情。
Operator
Operator
Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.
Ghansham Panjabi,Baird。
Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst
Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst
Yeah, thank you. And first off, congrats on a strong Q3. Tim, as you zoom out a little bit and think about 2027, how are you thinking about the trend line for volumes across your major end markets? Interest rates have gone up significantly since you last reported.
是的,謝謝。首先恭喜第三季表現強勁。Tim,當你把視角拉遠、思考到 2027 年時,你如何看待你們主要終端市場的銷量趨勢線?自你們上次財報以來,利率已大幅上升。
Growth in some of the international geographies seem a bit more challenged from a macroeconomic perspective, including in markets like China. So how does that net out for PPG at this point, as the way you see it at this point, in context of some of the advantage growth verticals you have, including in Aerospace? Thank you.
從總體經濟角度看,一些國際地區的成長似乎更具挑戰,包括像中國這樣的市場。因此就你目前的觀察,這對 PPG 的整體影響如何?同時也請放在你們具優勢的成長垂直領域(包括航太)背景下來看。謝謝。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Hey, Ghansham. First of all, thank you for the comment. I am sure my team will appreciate it because they work really hard, not only in the quarter, but the last couple of years building up this muscle. So appreciate that.
嗨,Ghansham。首先謝謝你的評論。我相信我的團隊會很感激,因為他們不只是在這一季,而是在過去幾年都非常努力地把這個能力鍛鍊起來。所以謝謝。
Look, it is early for us to give our '27 guide. You will hear that from me and Jamie at the end of January. First of all, you are not going to hear from us that we are expecting any significant hockey stick recovery across any of our markets. So from an end market standpoint, sitting here today, kind of more of the same.
你看,現在對我們來說要給出 2027 年的指引還太早。你會在一月底從我和 Jamie 那裡聽到。首先,你不會聽到我們預期任何市場會出現顯著的「曲棍球棒式」復甦。所以就終端市場而言,以今天此刻來看,大致上還是差不多的狀況。
But on the positive side, you should expect our organic growth momentum to continue, and we see that in our pipelines. You should expect our margin expansion to continue.
但正面的一面是,你應該預期我們的有機成長動能會持續,我們在案源管線中也看得到。你也應該預期我們的利潤率擴張會持續。
As we continue to execute the commercial actions, continue to drive a richer mix, and we are confident in not only the technologies out there today, but the technologies that are in our R&D pipeline. So while we are not going to count on any macro help, unless something changes between now and mid-January, the key themes will be organic growth momentum will continue, margin expansion momentum will continue. The rest of it will depend on what we learn in the next couple of months regarding inflation.
隨著我們持續執行商業行動、持續推動更優質的產品組合,我們不僅對當前的技術有信心,也對我們研發管線中的技術有信心。因此,雖然我們不會指望總體環境提供任何助力——除非從現在到一月中旬之間出現變化——關鍵主題將是:有機成長動能會持續、利潤率擴張動能會持續。其餘部分將取決於我們在接下來幾個月對通膨的觀察與了解。
Operator
Operator
Aleksey Yefremov, Barclays.
Aleksey Yefremov,Barclays。
Aleksey Yefremov - Equity Analyst
Aleksey Yefremov - Equity Analyst
Thanks. Good morning. Tim, could you just provide us update on what has been achieved in terms of cost actions in Architectural EMEA overall, and what do you expect to happen for remainder of this year and in '27?
謝謝。早安。Tim,你能否更新一下在 EMEA 建築塗料(Architectural)整體方面,成本行動目前已達成了哪些成果?以及你預期今年剩餘時間與 2027 年會如何發展?
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. So first, I will talk overall. I will start there. In a high level, what you should expect in '26 and '27 is about $100 million combined between restructuring and productivity actions.
好的。首先我會先談整體。我先從這裡開始。在高層次來看,你在 2026 與 2027 年應該預期,重整(restructuring)與生產力提升(productivity)行動合計約 1 億美元。
And the mix between restructuring and productivity may shift a little bit, but that is how I think of it, Aleksey, is about $100 million total between those two for '26 and '27. Now, Architectural EMEA specifically, we have been working on productivity throughout most of this year, and that is what has delivered some of our year to date margin expansion. But the bigger step change for us will be execution of the four plant closures that we talked about earlier this year.
重整與生產力之間的組合可能會有些微變動,但我對此的看法是,Aleksey,2026 與 2027 年這兩項合計約 1 億美元。至於 EMEA 建築塗料(Architectural EMEA)本身,我們在今年大部分時間都在推動生產力提升,而這也帶來了我們年初至今部分的利潤率擴張。但對我們而言更大的階躍式改善,將是執行我們今年稍早提到的四座工廠關閉計畫。
You won't see much of that benefit in 2026, but as you're modeling out 2027, you should expect a significant portion of that restructuring benefit that I just mentioned to come out of that business in the first half of '27.
你在 2026 年不會看到太多這方面的效益,但當你在建模 2027 年時,你應該預期我剛提到的重整效益中有相當大一部分,會在 2027 年上半年由該業務釋出。
Operator
Operator
John Roberts, Mizuho.
John Roberts,瑞穗。
John Roberts - Analyst
John Roberts - Analyst
Thanks, and congrats as well on a nice quarter. Could I ask what your highest priced house paint is in Europe currently? And I ask that because before the pandemic, I think we went a couple decades without volumes in the DIY business moving up or down more than a low single digit percent. All the cyclicality was in the pro business because it's new construction and high labor cost.
謝謝,也恭喜本季表現亮眼。我可以請問一下,你們目前在歐洲最貴的室內用房屋塗料是哪一款(或最高價位)嗎?我之所以這樣問,是因為在疫情之前,我想我們有將近幾十年時間,DIY 業務的銷量上下波動都不超過低個位數百分比。所有的景氣循環性都在專業端(pro)業務,因為那跟新建案以及高勞動成本有關。
But maybe it's not just this pull forward. Maybe prices are now high enough that we've got some demand elasticity?
但也許不只是這次需求提前釋放(pull forward)。也許現在價格已經高到足以讓我們看到一些需求彈性?
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I wouldn't say we have demand elasticity. I don't feel that's what's driving. I think it's more the underlying macro, John, that's driving the volume challenges.
是的。我不會說我們出現了需求彈性。我不覺得是這個在驅動。我認為更多是整體宏觀環境在推動銷量面臨的挑戰,John。
As far as price point on the shelf, and this is not just for PPG, for industry, you know having traveled over there and looked at the products on the shelves in different countries, that first of all, the formulation cost and the preference of the local painters varies country to country, surprisingly enough. Even in the Benelux, if you look at the difference between what a painter in the Netherlands prefers versus a painter in Belgium is different. And as a result, without going through all of the countries we operate in, off the top of my head, the highest price point would probably be in the Netherlands. And it's based on, frankly, the higher formulation cost in the Netherlands.
至於貨架上的價格點,而且這不只是 PPG、而是整個產業——你知道,我到那邊走訪、看過不同國家貨架上的產品後,首先,配方成本以及當地油漆工的偏好,確實會因國家而異,出乎意料地差異很大。即便在比荷盧地區,如果你看荷蘭油漆工偏好的產品,和比利時油漆工偏好的也不一樣。因此,不逐一列舉我們營運的所有國家,憑我印象,最高的價格點大概會在荷蘭。坦白說,這是因為荷蘭的配方成本較高。
Alex Lopez - Vice President of Investor Relations and Operational Finance
Alex Lopez - Vice President of Investor Relations and Operational Finance
And hey, John, this is Alex. Just an additional data point. If you look at the savings rates of European consumers today versus pre-COVID level, 2.5 times, 3 times higher. So really the issue that Tim is mentioning, it is not that much the elasticity, it is the consumer confidence.
嗨,John,我是 Alex。再補充一個數據點。如果你看今天歐洲消費者的儲蓄率相較於 COVID 之前的水準,高出 2.5 倍、3 倍。所以 Tim 提到的問題,與其說是彈性,不如說是消費者信心。
Operator
Operator
Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.
Matthew DeYoe,美國銀行。
Matthew DeYoe - Analyst
Matthew DeYoe - Analyst
Good morning. I am going to be a bit annoying and ask a three-parter. But I think it is
早安。我可能會有點惹人嫌,因為我要問三個問題。但我覺得這是
But kind of gets at what most investors we are talking with, and I guess myself, are maybe struggling with or want to know for the quarter. So Architectural EBIT up $40 million year over year. And I know you mentioned the peso benefit, right? But so if you have 1 billion of sales and price is 4%, that is $40 million.
但某種程度上切中我們正在交流的大多數投資人——我想也包括我自己——本季可能卡住或想弄清楚的點。所以建築塗料(Architectural)EBIT 年增 4,000 萬美元。我知道你提到披索帶來的好處,對吧?但如果你有 10 億美元的銷售額、而價格上漲 4%,那就是 4,000 萬美元。
So that kind of covers the growth. But you also had higher raw material costs, which is maybe most of that $40 million, and a 2% drop in revenues. So it is almost like back to square one. I would almost look at that and say the peso benefit in and of itself could be $40 million.
所以這大致就涵蓋了成長。但你們同時也有更高的原物料成本,可能就吃掉了那 4,000 萬美元的大部分,而且營收還下滑 2%。所以看起來幾乎又回到原點。我甚至會這樣看:單就披索的好處本身可能就有 4,000 萬美元。
And I do not know if that is right or not, but that is kind of the hole that I am looking at filling.
我不知道這樣對不對,但這就是我想要補上的那個缺口。
And I could almost run the same math on performance, but there you have good volumes, right? So I can think of incremental margins of almost 80%. I know Refinish is a big incremental margin business, and that's growing again. But am I in the right ballpark?
而且我幾乎也可以用同樣的算法來看 Performance(性能塗料),但那邊你們的量是好的,對吧?所以我可以想像增量利潤率接近 80%。我知道 Refinish(汽車修補漆)是增量利潤率很高的業務,而且又重新成長。但我這樣估算大致在合理範圍嗎?
Then last one, I know you talked about volumes and auto builds decelerating in Q4, but you have implied volumes decelerating basically across the board in your business for Q4. How should we read this? Is this more conservatism given the macro crosscurrents? It's particularly interesting in performance because some of these markets are conceptually more durable, right?
最後一個,我知道你談到第四季的銷量以及汽車產量(auto builds)會放緩,但你也暗示第四季你們各個業務的銷量基本上都在放緩。我們該怎麼解讀?這比較像是在宏觀環境交錯影響下更保守的假設嗎?這在 Performance 特別有意思,因為其中一些市場概念上更具韌性,對吧?
But you're going from high single digit to low mid on the guidance. And I think clarity on all these topics would be helpful.
但你們的指引是從高個位數降到低到中個位數。我覺得把這些主題講清楚會很有幫助。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Okay, Matthew, let me do my best at that, and I'll look for my teammates to help me here. First of all, architectural coatings, EBIT, the walk you described, the $40 million was not the benefit of the peso. It would be significantly lower than that, right? And that plug, I think would be a bit off.
好的,Matthew,我盡力回答,也請我的同事們幫我補充。首先,建築塗料的 EBIT,你描述的那個走勢,4,000 萬美元並不是披索帶來的好處。那會明顯低於 4,000 萬美元,對吧?所以用那個數字去補缺口,我認為會有點偏差。
I'd say the big drivers there are volume in Mexico, mix in Mexico, price in Mexico, price in Europe, and cost out in Europe. Those would be the biggest drivers. Then we got a little bit of help from the Mexican peso. On performance, two things I'd say.
我會說那邊最大的驅動因素是:墨西哥的銷量、墨西哥的組合(mix)、墨西哥的價格、歐洲的價格,以及歐洲的成本降低(cost out)。這些會是最大的驅動因素。然後我們也從墨西哥披索得到了一點幫助。至於 Performance,我會說兩點。
First of all, your thesis on Refinish being a very rich business, dropping good EBIT to the bottom. Yes, you're correct there.
第一,你的論點——Refinish 是一個利潤率很高、EBIT 能很好落到底線的業務——是的,你說得沒錯。
Aerospace is also a very good business for us, so their growth drops at a good margin for us. But your point on volume being a bit softer there, remember, we have two businesses there that are lapping multiple double-digit quarters, multiple double-digit Q4s. So just by the laws of big denominators, it starts to get a little more high single digits and mid single digits. Volumes overall in Q4, it's largely two things.
航太(Aerospace)對我們來說也是非常好的業務,所以它的成長也能以不錯的利潤率貢獻給我們。但你提到那邊銷量可能稍微轉弱,請記得,我們那裡有兩個業務正好在比較基期上,因為前面已經連續好幾季是雙位數成長、第四季也連續好幾次雙位數。基於分母變大的自然規律,成長率就會開始變成高個位數或中個位數。至於第四季整體銷量,主要是兩件事。
Automotive builds pretty significant reduction. If you look at just China alone, Matthew, China roughly builds 1/3 of all the new cars in the world, and S&P's IHS has reduced their builds projection to China for something like minus 8%. You might have seen The Journal article this morning, and while export China is helping us pretty significantly, domestic China is a true headwind. That's the biggest.
汽車產量會有相當明顯的下修。如果只看中國,Matthew,中國大約生產全球 1/3 的新車,而標普 IHS 已把中國的產量預測下修到大概 -8% 之類。你可能也看到今天早上的《華爾街日報》文章;雖然中國出口對我們幫助很大,但中國內需確實是一個逆風。這是最大的因素。
And then the second one is contributing to overall volumes, just uncertainty in Europe. The European to the previous question, the problem is not only in France. There's problems across the continent affecting consumer confidence. And we've built some of that concern into our Q4 guide.
第二個影響整體銷量的因素,就是歐洲的不確定性。回到前一題,歐洲的問題不只在法國。整個歐陸都有問題,影響了消費者信心。我們已把其中一部分擔憂納入第四季指引。
Hopefully, team, did I miss anything? Jamie?
各位同事,我有漏掉什麼嗎?Jamie?
Jamie Beggs - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Jamie Beggs - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Sure, yeah. Let me just go back to architectural for just a moment. I think Tim highlighted a couple of the great things that business is doing between both Europe and Mexico. Part of it is pricing appropriately to cover inflation.
當然。我先回到建築塗料補充一下。我想 Tim 已經點出這個業務在歐洲與墨西哥兩邊做得很好的幾件事。其中一部分是透過適當的定價來覆蓋通膨。
The other part of it is about more than 50% of our productivity initiatives and restructuring actions are actually happening in the architectural business. So that's another reason for the uplift that Tim mentioned earlier of getting to that sustained 20% EBITDA margin, which I do think based on what we're trying to do with the cost structure, also allows us to be able to maintain those types of margins. He also mentioned that the peso dynamic was a benefit to the quarter. That's about MXN15 million to MXN20 million of that bridge that we're talking about.
另一部分則是:我們超過 50% 的生產力提升計畫與重整(restructuring)行動,實際上都發生在建築塗料業務。所以這也是 Tim 先前提到、推升表現並讓 EBITDA 利潤率能夠維持在 20% 的另一個原因;我確實認為,基於我們正在調整的成本結構,也讓我們有能力維持這類型的利潤率。他也提到披索因素對本季有正面貢獻。就我們剛剛談的那個橋接(bridge)而言,大約是 1,500 萬到 2,000 萬墨西哥披索(MXN)。
So it definitely did impact the quarter.
所以這確實影響了本季。
But like I said, the majority of that had to do with other pricing initiatives as well as some of those productivity initiatives. And if I just touch real quickly on the performance segment, half of that sales increase was related to volume, the other half related to price. As you've seen and heard us talk about Aerospace and also the impact of our Refinish business, there's a really nice, healthy mix associated with that. And that's another reason why those margins continue to improve on a year-over-year basis.
但如我所說,其中大部分也與其他定價措施以及部分生產力提升措施有關。如果我很快談一下績效(Performance)事業群的表現,銷售成長的一半來自出貨量,另一半來自價格。正如你們看到並聽到我們談到航太(Aerospace)以及我們修補漆(Refinish)業務的影響,這當中有非常不錯且健康的組合。這也是為什麼這些毛利率能夠持續以年對年基礎改善的另一個原因。
Then lastly, what I would say with those two segments in particular. We were able to cover net COGS inflation with our pricing initiatives, which I think is really important. The one that's slower based on index dynamics and pricing of our contracts is Industrial, and that's the only segment that hasn't yet covered at this point.
最後,針對這兩個事業群我想說的是:我們透過定價措施得以抵銷淨銷貨成本(COGS)的通膨,我認為這點非常重要。由於指數機制與合約定價的動態,進展較慢的是工業(Industrial),而這也是目前唯一尚未完全覆蓋的事業群。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Great. Thanks, Jamie. And look, just to put a bow on it, Matthew, because I can read with all your questions a bit concerned over Q4. Our Q4 guide, while not as strong as our Q3 performance, is not a weak guide.
很好。謝謝你,Jamie。另外,Matthew,為了做個總結,因為從你所有問題中我讀到你對第四季有點擔心。我們對第四季的指引雖然不如第三季表現強勁,但也不是疲弱的指引。
It is in a world of difficult macro, we're going to deliver organic growth, we'll deliver EBITDA margin expansion, and we will deliver at our midpoint double-digit EPS growth. So despite some of these comp challenges and auto builds and a little anxiety over Europe, it's still a good quarter for us.
在宏觀環境艱難的情況下,我們仍將實現有機成長、實現EBITDA利潤率擴張,並在指引中值達成兩位數的EPS成長。因此,儘管面臨一些比較基期的挑戰、汽車產量(builds)的變化,以及對歐洲的一點焦慮,對我們而言仍會是一個不錯的季度。
Operator
Operator
Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.
Jeff Zekauskas,摩根大通(JPMorgan)。
Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst
Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst
Thanks very much. I have a two-part question. You talked about strength in the industrial coatings subcategory. If what we did is we excluded the performance of the Automotive OEM Coatings business and industrial coatings where you have constraints because of index-based pricing, would industrial coatings operating income, would it have been up year over year in the quarter or down?
非常感謝。我有一個兩部分的問題。你們談到工業塗料(industrial coatings)子類別的強勁表現。如果我們排除汽車OEM塗料(Automotive OEM Coatings)業務的表現,以及在工業塗料中因指數型定價而受限的部分,那麼工業塗料的營業利益在本季年對年會是成長還是下滑?
And secondly, various companies seem to want to buy architectural coatings businesses in Europe. Is that a business that you would consider monetizing at the right price, or is it strategic and it holds a particular strong position within the overall PPG portfolio? How do you regard that business in the world we are in now?
第二,似乎有多家公司想收購歐洲的建築塗料(architectural coatings)業務。這是否是你們在價格合適時會考慮變現(monetize)的業務,還是它具有策略性,並在整體PPG投資組合中占有特別強勢的地位?在當前環境下,你們如何看待這項業務?
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Thanks, Jeff. I will take it, and then if anyone, if Jamie or Alex wants to fill in gaps, fine. But look on, yeah, industrial coatings subcategories I have already talked about.
好的,謝謝你,Jeff。我來回答,如果Jamie或Alex想補充也可以。不過,關於工業塗料的子類別,我之前已經談過了。
Your question around if it were not for the challenges in Automotive OEM Coatings, would EBITDA have grown in that segment? The answer is yes. I will caution a little bit because Automotive OEM Coatings is not the only one that has index pricing there. Packaging Coatings does as well.
你問到如果沒有汽車OEM塗料的挑戰,該事業群的EBITDA是否會成長?答案是會。但我也要稍微提醒一下,汽車OEM塗料並不是該事業群中唯一採用指數型定價的業務。包裝塗料(Packaging Coatings)也是。
Packaging Coatings started to see some of their indices kick in, Jeff, where autos really will come in Q1 and Q2. Even while we had positive price in both Packaging Coatings and industrial, because of the structure of those contracts, even those two still have more work to do relative to the rest of our portfolio.
Jeff,包裝塗料已開始看到部分指數條款生效,而汽車相關的影響則會在第一季與第二季真正反映出來。即便我們在包裝塗料與工業領域都實現了正向價格,但由於合約結構的關係,這兩項相較於我們投資組合中的其他業務,仍有更多工作要做。
So the high level answer is yes, you are correct, but I want to give you a little more color there. On architectural Europe, we like this business, and here is why it is in our portfolio. It delivers really good earnings for us, really good cash for us. Clearly not a growth driver for us, Jeff, and you know that, and that has been the case for years.
所以高層次的答案是:是的,你的判斷正確,但我想再補充一些背景。至於歐洲建築塗料,我們喜歡這項業務,原因如下:它在我們的投資組合中有其定位。它為我們帶來非常好的獲利,也帶來非常好的現金流。很明顯,它不是我們的成長驅動因素,Jeff,你也知道,而且多年來一直如此。
But the role in the portfolio is get the margin to where we believe it should be, and get us great earnings and great cash like we did just not that long ago, I think 2023 in a pretty difficult macro, we were spitting out records. The role in the portfolio is while it is not a great growth business for us, it should be. It is a good margin business. Should be a great margin business.
但它在投資組合中的角色,是把利潤率提升到我們認為應有的水準,並像不久前那樣為我們帶來很好的獲利與現金流;我記得在2023年、在相當艱難的宏觀環境下,我們仍創下紀錄。它在投資組合中的角色是:雖然它對我們而言不是很好的成長型業務,但它應該是。它是一個不錯的高毛利業務。而且應該成為一個非常高毛利的業務。
It's a good cash generator for us, should be a great cash generator for us. And that helps us fund a lot of what we need to do in our high-growth, high-margin businesses like Aerospace. We're spending a lot of cash there. I got to get it from somewhere.
它對我們而言是個不錯的現金產生器,也應該成為非常強的現金產生器。而這能幫助我們為航太(Aerospace)等高成長、高毛利業務所需的許多投入提供資金。我們在那裡投入了大量現金。我必須從某個地方取得這些資金。
That said, every day our job is to maximize long-term shareholder value. I think you saw with what we did with Architectural US, there's nothing that's sacred if we believe that we can maximize shareholder value some other way. Earlier this year, I lose track of time, there was talk of another architectural Europe business, and the implied multiple that was being thrown around at that time, would not have added long-term shareholder value, vis-a-vis our organic strategy there. So every business has to earn its right to stay in the portfolio every day.
話雖如此,我們每天的工作都是最大化長期股東價值。我想你們也看到我們在美國建築塗料(Architectural US)所做的事——如果我們相信能以其他方式最大化股東價值,沒有任何事情是不可動的。今年稍早,我有點記不清時間了,市場曾談到另一家歐洲建築塗料業務,當時市場傳出的隱含倍數(multiple),相較於我們在那裡的有機策略,並不能增加長期股東價值。因此,每一項業務都必須每天都證明自己有留在投資組合中的理由。
Every business also, at the right price, if it makes sense for long-term shareholder value, that's certainly a path we'll consider like we did with Architectural USCA.
同樣地,每一項業務在合適的價格下,只要符合長期股東價值、且合理可行,這當然也是我們會考慮的路徑,就像我們對Architectural USCA所做的一樣。
Operator
Operator
Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.
Duffy Fischer,高盛(Goldman Sachs)。
Duffy Fischer - Equity Analyst
Duffy Fischer - Equity Analyst
Yeah, good morning, guys. Question just on COGS and raw materials. So last quarter, you saw the forward quarter up high single digits in the year of mid-single digits on inflation. It's basically the same view today. But since that period, oil's up 30%.
各位早安。問題是關於銷貨成本(COGS)與原物料。所以上一季,你們看到下一季的展望是年增高個位數,而當時通膨是中個位數。今天的看法基本相同。但在那段期間,油價上漲了30%。
So do you think that just your suppliers are going to eat that oil hit and that raw materials will roughly be similar to what you thought 90 days ago? Or is there some inflation yet to come, do you think, in the raw materials, if oil stays up at this $110 level, and that will be a bigger issue? So maybe just a view into the first half of next year, if oil stays flat, roughly what kind of raw material increase will you guys be looking at next year?
所以你們是否認為供應商會自行吸收這波油價衝擊,使原物料成本大致與你們90天前的預期相近?或者你們認為若油價維持在每桶110美元左右,原物料仍會有尚未反映的通膨,並成為更大的問題?也請談談明年上半年:如果油價持平,你們明年大概會面臨什麼樣的原物料漲幅?
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Hey, Duffy. First of all, we were projecting in our last guide for Q3, we projected high single digits, and we actually came in at mid-single digits for actual Q3. Some of that is business and region mix, and some of that is procurement excellence, arbitrage abilities of our team, that was able to bring that in lower than we had estimated.
好的。嗨,Duffy。首先,我們在上一份對第三季的指引中,原本預估是高個位數,但第三季實際結果是中個位數。部分原因是業務與區域組合,部分原因是採購卓越,以及我們團隊的套利能力,使得實際結果低於我們原先估計。
We're guiding high single digits for the fourth quarter. A bit early for us to guide for '27, but just mathematically, given that most of this inflation didn't really start kicking in until Q4, from a comp standpoint, we'll have some significant year-over-year inflation in Q1. And beyond that, it's really hard for me to project, Duffy. I don't know what's going to happen in the Middle East, what's going to happen, the price of oil, what's going to happen to other supply-demand.
我們對第四季的指引是高個位數。現在要我們對「27年給出指引還太早,但從數學上來看,因為大部分通膨直到第四季才真正開始反映,從比較基期的角度,第一季的年對年通膨會相當顯著。至於之後,Duffy,我很難預測。我不知道中東會發生什麼、油價會怎麼走、以及其他供需會如何變化。
But what I will say is, with our industry, the macroeconomic conditions always provide a bit of a shock absorber for coatings, in that when macros are down, that typically drives some pressure for suppliers to go after volume. So that can be a bit of a hedge to some of what you see on the news. But right now, I can't give you a guide yet for 2027. I'll give you that in January.
但我要說的是,就我們這個產業而言,宏觀經濟狀況對塗料業一向有點「緩衝器」的效果;也就是當宏觀走弱時,通常會驅使供應商承受一些壓力、去追求出貨量。所以這在某種程度上可以對沖你在新聞上看到的一些情況。但目前我還無法給你 2027 年的指引。我會在一月提供。
But just mathematically, we'll see high single digits in Q4. It'll be relatively high in Q1, just from a comp standpoint, and from there, we'll see how the year plays out.
但純粹從數學上來看,我們在第四季會是高個位數成長。第一季因為比較基期的關係也會相對偏高,之後就看全年走勢如何發展。
Operator
Operator
Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research LLC.
Frank Mitsch,Fermium Research LLC。
Frank Mitsch - Analyst
Frank Mitsch - Analyst
Thank you, and good morning. Tim, in the prepared remarks and in the press release, you spoke about the performance -- I am sorry, the Protective and Marine business, with a special emphasis on the marine side. We have heard from others, speaking about the protective side being a key area of growth. I wanted to give you an opportunity to expand upon all that might be going on the protective side and the sustainability of the growth that you might see there. Thank you.
謝謝,早安。Tim,在事先準備的講稿以及新聞稿中,你談到業績——抱歉,是防護與船舶(Protective and Marine)業務,並特別強調船舶端。我們也聽到其他人提到,防護端是關鍵的成長領域。我想給你一個機會,請你進一步說明防護端可能正在發生的各種情況,以及你們在那裡看到的成長可持續性。謝謝。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Thanks, Frank. Look, we are performing on both sides of the business. We called out the marine, particularly in marine Asia, because I would call it strong outperformance, and it is given that it is mostly technology-driven with some of our anti-fouling and fouling release technologies, that is super exciting to us.
好的。謝謝你,Frank。你看,我們在這個業務的兩端表現都不錯。我們特別點出船舶端,尤其是亞洲船舶市場,因為我會稱之為強勁的超預期表現;而且考量到這主要是由技術驅動、包含我們的一些防污(anti-fouling)與減污釋放(fouling release)技術,這讓我們非常振奮。
But protective is doing well, too, around the world. Infrastructure, everybody talks about data centers. We are doing well there. You may have seen our article in The Times the other day.
但防護端在全球也表現良好。基礎建設方面,大家都在談資料中心。我們在那裡做得不錯。你可能也看到我們前幾天在《泰晤士報》上的文章。
We are doing well with the infrastructure investments across the US and other countries. It is a mix of both, but if I were to rack and stack looking at our own results, marine new build, marine dry dock are our two strongest sub-segments. Data centers, yes, strong, but it is off a fairly small denominator.
我們在美國及其他國家的基礎建設投資上也做得不錯。這兩者都有,但如果我用我們自己的結果來排序,船舶新造(marine new build)與船舶進塢維修(marine dry dock)是我們最強的兩個子領域。資料中心確實強勁,但基期相當小。
Even as good as the pipeline is, and I think we tripled our sales from 2025, but it is off of a small number. In total, data center protective coating sales are still a low single-digit percent of our whole company. So that is exciting and fun to talk about. But with scale right now, it is marine new build and marine dry dock.
即便案源管線(pipeline)很好,而且我認為我們相較 2025 年把銷售額提高了三倍,但那是建立在很小的數字之上。整體而言,資料中心防護塗料的銷售額在我們全公司仍只占低個位數百分比。所以這確實令人興奮、也很值得談。但就目前的規模來看,仍是船舶新造與船舶進塢維修。
Operator
Operator
Josh Spector, UBS.
Josh Spector,瑞銀(UBS)。
Joshua Spector - Analyst
Joshua Spector - Analyst
Yeah. Hi, good morning. I wanted to ask a couple follows if I could, going down the line that Matt was going down. Thinking about overall COGS and inflation, it looks like in 3Q, your COGS inflation was up less than what it was in 2Q, even though raw material inflation accelerated, albeit it sounds a little bit less than what you thought.
是的,嗨,早安。如果可以的話,我想沿著 Matt 剛才的脈絡追問幾個問題。從整體銷貨成本(COGS)與通膨來看,第三季你們的 COGS 通膨看起來比第二季低一些,儘管原物料通膨加速了——雖然聽起來比你們原先預期略低。
Was there anything in there other than FX that would be a call-out, either tariffs or LIFO or something else? Because it just doesn't seem to fit the narrative that we're seeing. And then just a quick follow-up on FX. We're talking about that a lot in 3Q.
除了匯率之外,裡面還有沒有什麼值得特別點出的因素,例如關稅、LIFO(後進先出)或其他?因為這看起來和我們看到的敘事不太一致。另外再快速追問一下匯率:我們在第三季談了很多。
It looks like the benefit would have been similar, maybe even better in the first half. So I'm not sure what changed, if there's a bigger impact now.
看起來上半年帶來的好處應該也差不多,甚至可能更好。所以我不太確定是什麼改變了,是否現在影響更大。
So maybe you can help unpack that a little bit more please.
所以能否請你再幫忙多拆解說明一下?
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Josh. I might need some help from my team on this one, because my recollection is 2Q COGS inflation, we saw mid-single digits. 3Q, we thought we were going to see high, but we saw mid again. And the only unique factor that I can think of that would have held 3Q down was the peso strength.
當然,Josh。這題我可能需要團隊幫忙,因為我記得第二季的 COGS 通膨是中個位數。第三季我們原本以為會是高個位數,但結果又是中個位數。我能想到唯一一個在第三季把它壓下來的特殊因素,就是披索走強。
As I mentioned on the previous question, though, our procurement team I'll put against anyone as far as their ability to get the best deal and use our global footprint and our global arbitrage. So there may have been a little bit of that as well. But the only one that hits my radar screen is specifically Mexican peso FX, because most of our businesses, other than that one, buy and sell in the same currency, Josh.
不過如我在前一題提到的,我們的採購團隊在爭取最佳條件、運用我們的全球布局與全球套利能力方面,我敢說不輸任何人。所以也可能有一部分是這個因素。但唯一會讓我特別注意到的,就是墨西哥披索的匯率,因為除了那個業務之外,我們大多數業務都是用同一種貨幣買進與賣出,Josh。
So it's really the peso, if you want to see an impact on our net raw material inflation, the Mexican peso is the one that we should watch.
所以如果你想看到我們淨原物料通膨的影響,應該關注的就是墨西哥披索。
Alex Lopez - Vice President of Investor Relations and Operational Finance
Alex Lopez - Vice President of Investor Relations and Operational Finance
Yeah. In reality, Josh, this is Alex Lopez. The impact that we saw in Q2, mid-single-digit inflation, let's call it solid mid-single digits versus Q3 on the high-end range of those mid-single digits. So it's higher in Q3 than Q2.
Josh,實際上,我是 Alex Lopez。我們在第二季看到的影響是中個位數通膨,我們稱之為紮實的中個位數;而第三季則是在這個中個位數區間的高端。所以第三季其實比第二季更高。
Probably without the peso, it would have been on the high single, based just on pure math. So it's really the pricing action accelerated. If you look at pricing Q2 to Q3, pricing accelerated, and we expect similar acceleration going into Q4.
如果沒有披索因素,單純用數學推算,可能會落在高個位數。所以關鍵其實是定價行動加速了。如果你看第二季到第三季的定價,定價是加速的,而我們預期進入第四季也會有類似的加速。
Operator
Operator
Salvatore Tiano, KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Salvatore Tiano,KeyBanc Capital Markets。
Salvator Tiano - Equity Analyst
Salvator Tiano - Equity Analyst
Yes, thank you very much. So I want to drill down a little bit more on the price/cost situation. Firstly, you said you reached net neutrality when you're taking into account commercial actions. I wanted to clarify, is this purely pricing, or are there any other things that were taken in the mix when we think about the neutrality?
是的,非常感謝。我想再更深入探討一下價格/成本的情況。首先,你說在把商業行動納入考量後,你們已達到淨中性(net neutrality)。我想釐清一下:這純粹是定價的結果,還是中性這件事在組合中也包含了其他因素?
Given that you've already reached the price/cost neutrality at this point in Q3, does this mean the next few quarters we're going to get actually a tailwind from price/cost? Or, as you're seeing the acceleration in rolls a little bit later, I guess, than you expected, we're going to stay at that neutral place for Q4 and Q1?
既然你們在第三季此時點已經達到價格/成本中性,這是否意味著接下來幾季我們會實際從價格/成本得到順風(tailwind)?或者,因為你們看到的加速在落地上比預期晚一些,我猜第四季與第一季會維持在中性的狀態?
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Hey, Salvatore. First of all, the commercial actions are well over 90% price. Okay?
好的,Salvatore。首先,所謂商業行動有 90% 以上都是價格。好嗎?
You can clear that one off the deck. There's a little bit of other mixed elements in there, but it's well over 90% price. Now, as far as how to think about it going forward, we are at neutrality for COGS inflation as a total enterprise. But you heard me say, mostly in the industrial segment, we've still got some catching up to do within individual businesses, and we'll be holding in others pending on what happens to inflation.
這點你可以先不用再擔心。裡面確實還有一點其他混合因素,但 90% 以上都是價格。至於未來該怎麼看,我們在整個企業層級的 COGS 通膨已達到中性。但你也聽到我說,主要是在工業事業部,我們在某些個別業務上仍需要追趕,另外一些則會先維持,視通膨走勢而定。
So we've still got some catching up to do, but I would not expect a tailwind.
所以我們還有一些追趕要做,但我不會預期會有順風。
Again, depending on what happens in inflation, we just don't know that yet for 2027, but I would certainly not assume price inflation to be a tailwind in the short term, because we've still got some work to do.
同樣地,這取決於通膨接下來怎麼走;我們對 2027 年還不清楚,但我肯定不會在短期內假設價格通膨會成為順風,因為我們還有一些工作要完成。
Jamie Beggs - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Jamie Beggs - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
The raw material basket continues to escalate so that the commercial teams are very focused on initiating new actions as needed, as the dynamic environment continues to unfold. So we're a little cautious, I think, on saying there's a tailwind. Obviously, that would happen if raw materials stabilized, but that's not what we're seeing today.
原物料籃子持續上漲,因此商業團隊非常專注於在需要時啟動新的行動,因為動態環境仍在持續演變。所以我想我們在說這是一股順風時會稍微保守一些。顯然,如果原物料趨於穩定就會出現順風,但這不是我們今天所看到的情況。
Operator
Operator
Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.
Vincent Andrews,摩根士丹利。
Vincent Andrews - Analyst
Vincent Andrews - Analyst
Thank you, and good morning. Tim, I was wondering if you'd comment a little bit about the European Union is set to put some quotas on Chinese automobile imports, and I know you obviously paint cars in both geographies, so there's probably a little bit of a wash on volume. But maybe you could just talk about what, if any, effect on PPG that will have, whether it's from a mixed perspective, a margin perspective, or just any thoughts on that. Thank you.
謝謝,早安。Tim,我想請你稍微評論一下,歐盟準備對中國汽車進口設定一些配額;我知道你們在兩個地區都有為汽車塗裝,所以在銷量上可能大致相互抵消。但也許你可以談談這對PPG會有什麼影響(如果有的話),不論是從產品組合的角度、毛利率的角度,或是任何相關想法。謝謝。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Hey, Vincent. I would say very little impact on us because, to your point, we are well-represented in every car-producing country in the world. And what we care most about is net vehicle sales off the lot, because that is what drives the painting of cars.
是的。嗨,Vincent。我會說對我們影響非常小,因為如你所說,我們在全球每一個生產汽車的國家都有很好的布局。而我們最在意的是經銷端的淨新車銷售(從展間賣出),因為那才是驅動汽車塗裝的因素。
The only asterisk I would put is EV penetration, because per our earlier discussions, EVs give us content opportunity. And to the extent that EV penetration accelerates as it is in some parts of the world, not here, but most parts of the world it is, that is a content opportunity for us. As far as whether the car is produced in China or Europe or Latin America or US, Canada, we are pretty agnostic to that.
我唯一要加註的是電動車(EV)滲透率,因為如同我們先前討論的,EV能帶給我們更多單車用量(content)的機會。而在全球某些地區(不是這裡,但世界多數地區是如此)EV滲透率正在加速提升,這對我們就是單車用量的機會。至於汽車是在中國、歐洲、拉丁美洲,或美國、加拿大生產,我們基本上並不偏好哪一邊。
Operator
Operator
Eric Boyes, Evercore.
Eric Boyes,Evercore。
Eric Boyes - Analyst
Eric Boyes - Analyst
Morning, and thanks. Maybe another one on refinish. Could rebate thresholds or year-end purchasing be cushioning some of the stabilization there? And what does that mean for comps in first quarter or first half for our expectations?
早安,謝謝。再問一題關於修補漆(refinish)。回饋(rebate)門檻或年底採購,是否正在緩衝那邊的穩定化?那對我們對第一季或上半年同比(comps)的預期意味著什麼?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
That is a good question. A great question, Eric, because we really do not know how a lot of our distributors are going to play out at year-end. While the major destocking is behind us, each of these folks are independent private business owners, and they manage their own cash flow. And if they are within striking distance of a rebate, they may buy a lot in Q4.
這是個好問題。Eric,這真的是個很好的問題,因為我們確實不知道很多經銷商在年底會怎麼操作。雖然主要的去庫存已經過去了,但這些人都是獨立的私人企業主,他們會管理自己的現金流。如果他們距離拿到回饋只差一點,他們可能會在第四季買很多。
If they are not, they may say, you know what? I will just hold off till Q1 and make my '27 rebate. That is a dynamic that we watch very closely. It is still pretty early in the quarter here for us to say how that is going to play out. We have given the best guide we could possibly give.
如果不是,他們可能會說,你知道嗎?我就等到第一季再買,去達成我在'27年的回饋。這是一個我們非常密切關注的動態。就我們而言,本季才剛開始不久,現在還很難說最後會怎麼發展。我們已經給出我們所能給的最佳指引。
But you have nailed on a subject that always affects Q4. But it could bring in some additional variability this Q4, given the two dynamics that we talked about earlier. One, the previous destocking in the first half of this year, and second, the really close monitoring that everybody is doing on what is happening with actual body shop activity and US collision claims. So that is a good call-out.
但你點出了每年第四季都會影響的議題。不過在今年第四季,考量我們先前談到的兩個動態,它可能帶來額外的波動。第一,今年上半年先前的去庫存;第二,大家都在非常密切監控實際鈑噴廠活動以及美國碰撞理賠(collision claims)的情況。所以這個提醒很到位。
It's a watch closely, and we've built our best possible estimate into our guide.
這需要密切觀察,而我們已把我們能做的最佳估計納入指引中。
Operator
Operator
Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.
Arun Viswanathan,RBC資本市場。
Arun Viswanathan - Analyst
Arun Viswanathan - Analyst
Great. Thanks for taking my question. If I could just maybe get your thoughts on maybe some initial framework for '27. So it sounds like you are implementing price increases that'll flow through maybe in the low to mid-single-digit range.
很好。謝謝讓我提問。如果可以的話,我想請教你們對'27年一些初步框架的看法。聽起來你們正在推動的漲價,可能會反映在低到中個位數的區間。
Maybe mid-single-digit range. And then your volumes, it seems like your business wins, and then strength in a few categories, maybe Aerospace and Packaging Coatings could lead you to also consolidated low-single-digit volume growth. And so that could put you maybe in the mid- to high-single-digit EBITDA growth, and then maybe with some capital deployment, you get to high single-digit EPS growth. Is that a fair framework that we can keep in mind?
也許是中個位數。然後在銷量方面,看起來你們的業務贏單,以及幾個類別的強勁表現(例如航太與包裝塗料)也可能帶動合併口徑低個位數的銷量成長。因此EBITDA可能落在中到高個位數成長;再加上一些資本配置,EPS成長可達高個位數。這樣的框架合理嗎,讓我們作為參考?
Maybe just any help on that would be appreciated. Thanks a lot.
如果能給一些指引會很感謝。非常謝謝。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, Arun, I said a couple of times, it's a bit early for us to give a granularity on our '27 guide. We're just early in a fourth quarter here, which in a world that has more volatility than normal from both a demand side, a geopolitical side, and an inflation side. So can't get into granularity yet, but the themes I mentioned earlier that I do feel confident in is we will continue our -- based on what we know today, without something falling off a cliff, we will continue our organic growth because we've got a good pipeline.
是的,Arun,我已經說過幾次,現在要我們對'27年的指引提供那麼細的拆解還太早。我們才剛進入第四季,而在這個世界裡,無論是需求面、地緣政治面,還是通膨面,波動都比平常更大。所以目前還無法談到那麼細,但我先前提到、我有信心的主軸是:以我們今天所知道的情況來看,只要沒有出現斷崖式下滑,我們會持續有機成長,因為我們有不錯的案源(pipeline)。
We will continue our margin expansion because we have some catch up to do on pricing in some businesses, and we've got significant productivity and restructuring actions that will drive some margin enhancements for us across the business. So we're expecting top line growth, and we're expecting EBITDA expansion.
我們也會持續擴張利潤率,因為在某些業務上我們的定價還需要追趕,而且我們有顯著的生產力提升與重整(restructuring)措施,將在全公司推動一些利潤率改善。所以我們預期營收成長,也預期EBITDA擴張。
Too early for me to quantify that. If you look by business, I could talk about the ones that we have great certainty over. Aerospace will continue to grow. I've got backlog that will last for years, unfortunately.
但現在要我量化還太早。如果按事業別來看,我可以談一些我們把握度很高的部分。航太會持續成長。我手上的積壓訂單(backlog)會持續好幾年,遺憾的是。
I wish I could sell it all today. But that will continue to grow for us. Now, when you lap 22 quarters of averaging double digit, maybe it goes from double digit to higher mid, but that will still grow for us.
我希望我今天就能把它全賣掉。但它會持續帶動我們成長。當你已經連續22個季度平均雙位數成長後,之後可能會從雙位數降到較高的中個位數,但仍會成長。
Our Packaging Coatings business, the same thing.
我們的包裝塗料業務也是一樣。
Confident in our Mexico business because we've got retail sales being pretty robust. And while I mentioned in my opening remarks that we've seen sequential recovery in FDI, it's still not back to where it was pre-tariff and USMCA uncertainty. So there's still upside in Mexico that's a potential as those things release.
我們對墨西哥業務有信心,因為零售銷售相當強勁。而且雖然我在開場致詞提到,我們看到外國直接投資(FDI)呈現逐季復甦,但仍未回到關稅前以及USMCA不確定性之前的水準。因此,隨著這些因素逐步解除,墨西哥仍有潛在上行空間。
The other businesses are a little more uncertain at this point until we see how consumer demand is, until we see how auto production is. So net-net, confident in the growth, confident in the EBITDA expansion, and the rest of it we'll share with you in January.
其他業務目前不確定性較高,直到我們看到消費需求如何、以及汽車產量如何。總結來說,我們對成長有信心,對EBITDA擴張也有信心;其餘部分我們會在一月與各位分享。
Operator
Operator
Abigail Eberts, Wells Fargo.
Abigail Eberts,富國銀行。
Abigail Eberts - Equity Analyst
Abigail Eberts - Equity Analyst
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one on Traffic Solutions. Anything worth calling out there, or was the mid-single digit organic growth decline mainly weather-related?
嗨,謝謝讓我提問。快速問一題關於交通解決方案(Traffic Solutions)。那邊有什麼值得特別提出的嗎?或者中個位數的有機成長下滑主要是天氣因素?
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Hey, Abigail. Two things, you nailed part of it. This is a business.
是的。嗨,Abigail。兩點,你說對了一部分。這是一個業務。
First of all, it is by far our most seasonal business. So you really need to watch it in the summer months. That is when we make all of our money, and you could call it one summer month in the quarter. And then it is a pretty volatile base because you got a small denominator as you move through September, October.
首先,這是我們季節性最強的業務,遠遠超過其他。所以你真的需要在夏季月份觀察它。那是我們賺取所有利潤的時候,而在一個季度裡你甚至可以說主要就靠一個夏季月份。接著,當你進入九月、十月時,由於分母較小,基期就會相當波動。
That was one piece. We do not like to call it weather because I do not like to be one of those people that blame things on weather and then not take credit for it when weather is good. But the cycle of our customers, actually, their buying patterns were different than what last Q3 would have been, which is what drove the minus mid-single digits.
那是一個因素。我們不喜歡把它稱為天氣,因為我不喜歡成為那種把事情怪罪於天氣、但天氣好的時候又不把功勞歸於自己的那種人。但我們客戶的週期——實際上,他們的採購模式與去年第三季的情況不同,這就是導致中個位數百分比下滑的原因。
Alex Lopez - Vice President of Investor Relations and Operational Finance
Alex Lopez - Vice President of Investor Relations and Operational Finance
Yeah, and if you look at those buying patterns, Abigail, first half of Traffic Solutions was very strong. So I think that some of those customers were taking advantage of that nice spring we had.
是的,而且如果你看那些採購模式,Abigail,Traffic Solutions 上半年表現非常強勁。所以我認為其中一些客戶是利用了我們今年春天那段宜人的好天氣。
Operator
Operator
Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.
Laurence Alexander,Jefferies。
Laurence Alexander - Analyst
Laurence Alexander - Analyst
Good morning. Just very quickly, most of our discussion the past few years about the price versus cost has been about innovation or demand helping you get through pricing faster and be able to offset cost inflation. But can you talk a little bit about what is happening structurally. That is, when we look at moves in the oil price, the amount of inflation that flows through to you, is there anything that has strategically changed or is improving? Or are there moves that you can do over the next several years that could structurally change the sensitivity that you have to the kind of underlying moves in the raw commodities?
早安。很快問一下,過去幾年我們大部分關於價格相對成本的討論,都是在談創新或需求如何幫助你更快完成調價,並能抵銷成本通膨。但你能否談談結構性方面正在發生什麼?也就是說,當我們看油價變動時,傳導到你們這邊的通膨幅度,有沒有什麼在策略上已經改變或正在改善?或者在未來幾年,你們是否有什麼作法可以在結構上改變你們對原物料大宗商品價格底層波動的敏感度?
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. A couple of things. We've been able to move much faster this time for a number of reasons. One, we learn.
有的。有幾點。這次我們能快很多,原因有好幾個。第一,我們有學到。
We learn from prior cycles, done well, do betters. Our commercial excellence is much, much better than it was historically. Our selling machine, we're on top of what's happening to our COGS. We're armed to have earlier and better conversations with our customers.
我們從以往週期中學習;做得好的地方,做得更好。我們的商業卓越能力比過去歷史上好很多、很多。我們的銷售體系能緊盯我們的銷貨成本(COGS)變化。我們也具備條件更早、以更充分的準備與客戶進行對話。
Another reason I'll point to is our R&D investments eventually lead to better innovation. Better innovation leads to a better offering for our customer to help their businesses be more successful. So that's a very different discussion than just pure price versus inflation. So we've kind of progressed all of those things as we've moved over the last couple of years, Laurence, but fundamentally, we're still going to be tied to certain commodity chemicals.
我還要指出另一個原因:我們的研發投資最終會帶來更好的創新。更好的創新會為客戶提供更好的方案,幫助他們的業務更成功。因此,這就不是單純的「價格對通膨」的討論了。所以,Laurence,過去幾年我們在這些方面都有所進展,但從根本上說,我們仍然會與某些大宗化學品連動。
I don't want to do anything that links 100% of our pricing directly to those chemicals, because we have innovative products that provide value far beyond the combination of raw materials. So we focus mostly on innovation excellence to bring value to our customers, commercial excellence to articulate that value to our customers, and that enables a much different discussion when you do have inflation and you're delivering good productivity to our customers, and enables us to capture it faster.
我不想做任何把我們的定價 100% 直接連結到那些化學品的事情,因為我們有創新產品,其提供的價值遠遠超過原材料的組合。因此我們主要聚焦在:以創新卓越為客戶帶來價值、以商業卓越向客戶清楚傳達這個價值;當出現通膨、而你又在為客戶交付良好的生產力提升時,這能讓討論方式完全不同,也讓我們能更快把價值捕捉回來。
Alex Lopez - Vice President of Investor Relations and Operational Finance
Alex Lopez - Vice President of Investor Relations and Operational Finance
Yeah, and I think that structurally, Laurence, the industry, the chemical industry, is still long and still excess capacity. So our procurement team is working on diversify our supplier base to have better supplier for PPG.
是的,我認為從結構面來看,Laurence,整個產業——化工產業——仍然是供給過剩、產能過剩。因此我們的採購團隊正在努力分散供應商基礎,為 PPG 建立更好的供應商組合。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
One last thing I will say, because it's exciting and fun to talk about, is I mentioned on one of my calls a couple quarters ago what we're doing with AI formulation. We use AI to optimize our raw material combinations without sacrificing performance for our customers. 100 years' worth of formulas scattered across 100 labs around the world, and AI has brought us that capability, and we're over 150 formulas now that we've done that with, and it delivers us good offsets to what happens out there from an inflationary standpoint.
最後我想補充一點,因為這個話題很令人興奮也很有趣:我在幾季前的一次電話會議中提到我們在做的 AI 配方設計。我們使用 AI 來最佳化原材料的組合,同時不犧牲客戶端的性能表現。全球 100 個實驗室分散著 100 年累積的配方資料,而 AI 讓我們具備了整合與運用的能力;目前我們已經在超過 150 個配方上這樣做了,從通膨角度來看,這能為我們提供良好的抵銷效果。
Operator
Operator
Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.
Chris Parkinson,Wolfe Research。
Harris Fein - Analyst
Harris Fein - Analyst
Hey, guys. This is Harris Fein. I am for Chris. Just a quick one for me.
嗨,各位。我是 Harris Fein,我代替 Chris。我這邊只有一個簡短問題。
You outpaced the industry by 300 basis points in the quarter. I guess, how much of that was you being aligned with the right existing customers versus new incremental share gains that you can point to flowing through? Across the portfolio, how much in the past, you have called out dollar amounts on share gains that you see in the pipe. Just how much in terms of share gains do you have visibility to that still has not flowed through yet?
你們本季表現比產業高出 300 個基點。我想問,其中有多少是因為你們與既有的正確客戶更契合, versus 你們可以指出的新增市佔提升逐步反映所帶來的?在整個產品組合上,過去你們曾提到你們在管線中看到的市佔提升會以金額呈現。就市佔提升而言,你們目前仍能掌握、但尚未完全反映出來的部分,大概還有多少可見度?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Knavish - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. So it is both, Harris. We have a win with the winners strategy where that cuts across many of our businesses, and credit Alicia who started it in Automotive, but we have spread it across many of our businesses where we try to pick the winners and deliver our value proposition to them and then ride their growth, right? So that is part of it.
是的,Harris,兩者都有。我們有一個「與贏家同行(win with the winners)」策略,橫跨我們許多業務;要歸功於最早在汽車業務啟動這項策略的 Alicia,但我們已把它擴展到多個業務單位:我們嘗試挑選贏家,向他們交付我們的價值主張,然後搭上他們的成長,對吧?所以這是其中一部分。
But we also have talked about some pretty significant share wins, chunky ones. That is largely in the Industrial segment just because of the nature of the customer. If you think about an Architectural Coatings customer, that takes hundreds and thousands of micro wins, and that is what we are fighting every day.
但我們也談過一些相當顯著的市佔勝出——那種「大塊頭」的勝出。這主要發生在工業(Industrial)部門,因為客戶性質不同。如果你想像建築塗料(Architectural Coatings)的客戶,那需要成百上千個微小的勝利累積,而這就是我們每天在努力爭取的。
Whereas Industrial segment, where you are factory to factory, larger chunky wins. I think we have said we have got a pipeline that we will get about $25 million a quarter of new Industrial segment wins, and that has been our run rate, and that is what you should expect to continue to see over the next several quarters.
相較之下,在工業部門,你是工廠對工廠,會出現更大、更「塊狀」的勝出。我想我們曾說過,我們的管線預計每季可帶來約 2,500 萬美元的工業部門新增勝出,這一直是我們的運行水準,而你們也應該預期在接下來幾季會持續看到這樣的表現。
Operator
Operator
Sean Gilmartin, Bloomberg Intelligence Research. There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Alex Lopez.
Sean Gilmartin,Bloomberg Intelligence Research。目前沒有其他問題。我現在把電話交回給 Alex Lopez。
Alex Lopez - Vice President of Investor Relations and Operational Finance
Alex Lopez - Vice President of Investor Relations and Operational Finance
Thank you, Warren. We appreciate your interest and confidence in PPG. This concludes our third-quarter earnings call.
謝謝你,Warren。我們感謝各位對 PPG 的關注與信心。第三季財報電話會議到此結束。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。