Powell Industries Inc (POWL) 2004 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Powell Industries Q4 2004 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants' lines have been placed in a listen only mode. Following today's presentation, instructions will be given for the question and answer session. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Wednesday, December 15 of 2004.

  • At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Karen Roan, Vice President of DRG&E.

  • Karen Roan - VP

  • Thank you and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for Powell Industries' conference call today to review fiscal 2004 fourth quarter and year-end results. We would also like to welcome our Internet participants listening to the call simulcast live over the Internet.

  • Before I turn the call over to management, I have the normal housekeeping details to cover.

  • You could have received a fax or email of the earnings release this morning. Occasionally there are technical difficulties experienced during these broadcasts, so if you didn't get your release, please call our offices at DRG&E at 713-529-6600 and we will get one right out to you.

  • Also if you want to be on the permanent email distribution list or fax list, relay that information to us.

  • There will be a replay of today's call and it will be available by Webcast by going to the Company's Website at www.POWELLIND.com. Or a recorded replay will be available for the next seven days by calling 303-590-3000 and using Passcode 1101-5975.

  • Please note that information reported on this call speaks only as today, December 15, 2004, and therefore you are advised that time-sensitive information may no longer be accurate as of the time of the replay.

  • As you know, this conference call includes certain statements, including statements relating to the Company's expectations of its future operating results that may be deemed to be forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Investors are cautioned that such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

  • These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, competition and competitive pressures, sensitivity to general economic and industry conditions, international political and economic risks, availability and price of raw materials and execution of business strategies.

  • For further information please refer to the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

  • Now with me this morning are Tom Powell, the Company's President and Chief Executive Officer; Don Madison, the Company's Chief Financial Officer; and Mark Reid, Executive Vice President. Tom.

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • Thank you, Karen, and good morning to all of you. Thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and year-end 2004 conference call.

  • First I would like to discuss our actual results vs. our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year.

  • We missed our fourth quarter earnings guidance. We had projected 1 to 6 cents per diluted share which included $1.5 million of pre-tax expenses for the completion of the consolidation of our Delta and Unibus operations. Although our consolidation expenses were less than projected, our operating results did not meet our expectations.

  • We actually reported a 4 cent per-share loss. This loss included $630,000 of pre-tax consolidation expenses and that impacted our diluted earnings per share in the quarter by 4 cents.

  • For the full year, our earnings guidance had been 18 to 23 cents per diluted share, including expected pre-tax consolidation expenses of 3 million. We ended up reporting 13 cents per diluted share for the year which included a total of $2.2 million of pre-tax consolidation costs. That impacted our earnings per diluted share for the year by 13 cents.

  • Consolidation of those operations has gone smoothly with the timing on track and the total costs coming in below our expectations. There have been no unexpected disruptions with either of the two plant closings that have been completed to date. We are already starting to see some positive results from this consolidation, in spite of the competitive nature of the business.

  • These actions will improve our position in our markets in the future.

  • The other performance in our operating results was a direct result of escalation in raw material costs and low market levels -- market price levels, that is -- coupled with decreased factory utilization rates in the fourth quarter.

  • We are pleased to report that there has been an upturn in our markets. We reported bookings of over 61 million in the fourth quarter. This compares to booking levels of 42 and 45 million in the past two quarters and 33 million in the first quarter of '04.

  • These bookings are broad-based coming in the areas of oil and gas exploration and production, refining, chemicals, transit as well as utility and independent power produced projects. This booking trend continued into November which was a successful month for orders. Our inquiries remain at healthy levels.

  • On our last call, we said we had some alternative energy projects in hand, for design and engineering only. Since the recent passage of the Alternative Energy legislation, we've received an immediate release on one of those projects and we turned that project around and shipped it in six weeks and we have now booked a second order which will ship in late January.

  • Needless to say, we have an extremely pleased customer and we anticipate further opportunities in the Alternative Energy field in the coming year. That is both domestic and international opportunities.

  • This is an example of one of Powell's distinguishing characteristics -- our ability to respond quickly and successfully to the customer's specific needs.

  • Our cash position continues to improve. We ended the quarter with 63 million in cash and marketable securities versus 56 at the end of the third quarter.

  • With that, I will turn it over to Don Madison for a review of our financial results. Don.

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • Thank you, Tom. Revenues for the fourth fiscal quarter was $48.6 million, compared to last year's fourth quarter results of $57.2 million. Gross margin for the quarter was 16.8 percent compared to 21 percent in last year's fourth quarter.

  • During the quarter, material costs continued to be a challenge. Share costs increased approximately $1 million over the same period a year ago, primarily due to higher prices for copper, aluminum, and steel.

  • Work to consolidate operations is nearing completion. Gross margins for the fourth quarter was adversely impacted by one-time costs associated with these efforts of $550,000 for severance equipment relocation.

  • Selling, general, and administrative expenses for the quarter were $9.9 million, compared to $8.5 million in the same period last year. The quarter was adversely impacted by higher than anticipated costs for legal and lease expenses of approximately $500,000.

  • SG&A expenses also includes one-time consolidation costs of $80,000 for severance and employee relocation expenses.

  • In addition to consolidation costs, we incurred higher operating costs for these operations that incurred in the same period a year ago.

  • Earnings before interest and income taxes or EBIT for the fourth quarter was at a loss of $1.7 million, compared to income of $3.5 million a year ago. Net interest income increased for the quarter by $117,000 to $250,000 compared to the fourth quarter of 2003.

  • Our income tax provision was a benefit of $994,000. Included in our 2003 provision was a $1.3 million for state taxes of which $.9 million reflected revised estimates for state tax exposures related to prior years.

  • In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004, these estimates were reduced by $.2 million. Additionally, a capital-off valuation allowance was released based on probable 2005 capital gains on assets held for sale, providing additional benefit of $260,000.

  • We recorded a net loss of $415,000 for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004, compared to net income of $1.2 million for the fourth quarter of 2003. Earnings per diluted share was a loss of 4 cents compared to income of 12 cents a year ago.

  • Our backlog for the fourth quarter of 2004 was $134 million compared to $120 million in the previous quarter and $157 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2003. Orders continue to strengthen. Orders in the fourth quarter were $61.5 million, compared to $42.1 million in the previous quarter and $36.3 million a year ago.

  • We generated cash flow from operations of $7.1 million and invested approximately $1.6 million in capital improvements during the fourth quarter, resulting in free cash flow of approximately $5.5 million.

  • Turning to our business segments. The Electrical Power Products segment reported revenues of $40 million compared to $50.2 million for the same period last year. Lower segment revenues from Industrial customers had the most significant impact on segment revenues compared to the prior year. Revenues from Industrial customers were $24.8 million compared to $38.6 million a year ago. Revenues from utility customers were $12.2 million, an increase of $2.2 million from a year ago. And Municipal and Transit projects generated revenues of $3 million compared to $1.7 million a year ago.

  • Income from continuing operations before income taxes for Electrical Power Products was a loss of $1.5 million compared to income of $3.1 million last year. Fourth quarter income was adversely impacted $1 million due to higher material costs, primarily from inflationary pressures and commodities, as noted earlier, higher SG&A expenses, and one-time costs of $630,000 associated with our efforts to consolidate operations.

  • The Process Control Systems segment reported revenues of $8.6 million versus $7 million in last year's fourth quarter. Income from continuing operations before income taxes for Process Control Systems was $41,000 compared to $523,000 a year ago. Delays in obtaining notes to proceed on several projects resulted in lower segment earnings in the fourth quarter of 2004.

  • Now for our full year results. Revenues for fiscal 2004 were (indiscernible) $206.1 million versus a $253.4 million in fiscal 2003. Due to economic uncertainty, customers have been reluctant to commit to new capital construction projects throughout much of 2004. As a result, we have experienced a decline in revenues in each of our major markets.

  • Excluding one-time costs to consolidate operations fiscal year 2004 gross margin was 18.2 percent, compared to 19.3 percent last year. Including one-time consolidation costs, gross margin was 17.3 percent. Inflationary pressures primarily from higher prices for copper, aluminum, and steel resulted in a $3.3 million increase in material costs compared to fiscal 2003.

  • Selling, general, and administrative expenses for fiscal 2004 were $35.4 million, compared to $35.3 million last year. Full year SG&A expenses includes one-time consolidation costs of $400,000. For fiscal 2004, accounting and audit fees increased by $750,000 compared to 2003, primarily due to Sarbanes-Oxley compliance efforts.

  • Net interest income increased by $600,000 to $700,000 compared to fiscal 2003.

  • Our provision for income taxes reflects a benefit of $427,000 in fiscal 2004 compared to an expense of $6.2 million in fiscal 2003. During fiscal 2004, we determined our 2002 and 2003 federal income tax liability was overstated by 200,000 and 300,000, respectively, primarily due to a change in estimates associated with our extraterritorial income exclusion on income earned outside the United States.

  • Additionally, a capital loss valuation allowance was released providing an additional benefit of $260,000 and estimated state tax exposure was reduced by $200,000.

  • Going forward, we anticipate our effective tax rate to range between 37.6 percent to 37.9 percent. Net income for 2004 was $1.4 million or 13 cents per diluted share, compared to $7.1 million or 67 cents per diluted share last year. Net income for 2003 included the effect of a change in accounting principles of $510,000 or 4 cents per diluted share with the adoption of SFAS 142.

  • Full-year Electrical Power Products revenues fell $54 million to $173.5 million. Income from continuing operations for income taxes for this segment was a loss of $87,000, compared to income of $12.5 million last year.

  • Process Control Systems revenue for the year were $32.7 million, compared to $26.4 million last year. Approximately $5.5 million of our revenue growth in 2004 was attributable to subcontract work and material pass-through purchases which produced significant lower levels of margin, compared to our value-added professional services.

  • Income from continuing operations before income taxes for Process Control Systems was $1.1 million, compared to $1.4 million in fiscal 2003.

  • For the full year, we generate free cash flow of $18.5 million, which consisted of net cash from operations of $25 million, by capital investments of $6.5 million. We ended the year with $63.2 million in cash and marketable securities, compared to $42.3 million at the end of fiscal 2003.

  • Looking ahead to our first quarter in fiscal 2005. We expect first quarter earnings to range between 1 cent and 6 cents per diluted share which includes free tax expenses of 300,000 to 400,000 to complete the consolidation of our Power Electronics (indiscernible) line.

  • For fiscal 2005, we expect full year revenue to range between $215 million and $230 million. Full year earnings are expected to be between 45 cents and 60 cents per diluted share, which includes an estimated pretax consolidation expense of approximately $500,000.

  • With strengthening business conditions in fiscal 2005, we expect to use free cash flow of between $5 million and $10 million for the full year. With that, I'll turn it back to Tom.

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • Thank you, Don. Let me make a few quick comments and I will turn this over to questions.

  • Needless to say, 2004 was a difficult year for the Company. Market conditions and our performance were certainly not what we were working for, but I am happy to report that opportunities have improved and prospects look much brighter as we go forward.

  • The opportunities across all of our market segments have improved and fit our capabilities very well.

  • Clear Skies legislation is scheduled to be addressed by March of '05 for more stringent power plant emission regulations. This is a $50 billion investment in clean air and we expect we will accelerate construction projects where we have good market acceptance with our Switchgear and integrated Power Control Room capabilities.

  • Economists continue to predict a 50 percent growth in electric consumption over the next 20 years and we are already seeing renewed power plant construction activity, which is very encouraging.

  • Independent power producers are again becoming active in natural gas fired power plant construction, after the last year's series of bankruptcies and consolidations in that sector. Power generating utilities have a renewed interest in coal-fired generation with the advent of high gas fuel costs that once again make coal-fired generation economic. This is being further accelerated with government-funded clean coal technology initiatives.

  • Electric utility opportunities for distribution substation work have increased. There are also utility opportunities for our mobile capacitor bank products which boost voltage on existing transmission lines. We are seeing very good opportunities with utilities in all parts of the country.

  • Opportunities are improving, related to mandated clean fuel such as the desulfurization of diesel. These refinery process upgrades are in addition to significant power upgrades at American refiners. A lot of the older refineries are trying to improve their electrical reliability so they are renewing and improving their electrical infrastructure. We participate very well in these markets.

  • Also we're seeing repowering and modernization in a number of other major industrial sectors. This leads to major new equipment purchases as well at a very brisk market for replacement breakers and service where we enjoy excellent success. And our actual opportunities have improved as well with increased capital budgets in the oil and gas production segment.

  • There are a number of projects slated in the transit industry in the coming year. The Transit Funding Appropriations bill, TEA 821, valued in excess of $250 billion over the next six years, will be voted on in January of '05. This will improve the outlook for both our transit substation business as well as advanced traffic management systems that are a core product of our Transdyn Controls group.

  • We continue to invest in the future with aggressive research and development programs. We have received several orders for our new 5000 amp 15 KV generator circuit breaker. That is a brand-new product line for Powell. We have succeeded in developing -- further developing 63 KA arc resistant products. That's another market first and the industry's highest rating available. We have received some significant orders for these new products.

  • We have also taken the arc resistant concept beyond Switchgear and into our medium voltage motor controlled product line, and secured several impressive contracts for that product in recent months.

  • Longer-term trends will lead to an increase in power density and distributed generation in large, metropolitan areas. These are expected to drive the need for new solutions including Power Electronics. Some very large utilities are collaborating with Powell on the development of products to meet this demand; and we have received additional funding from major utilities in the Empry (ph) organization for the continuing development of our solid-state current limiting products.

  • Historically, there has been a reluctance to adopt new technology at utilities. This tendency is changing as the deregulated utility segments strives to meet growing demand in a newly competitive environment. This will spur increased demand for smart substations and Power Electronics solutions, providing more opportunities for Powell and its sophisticated products that we produce.

  • These are all opportunities that fit us well and should improve our outlook in (technical difficulty) to beyond. Our investment in consolidation as well as improved plant and equipment will position Powell to be a more cost-effective manufacturer in what will undoubtedly remain a very competitive marketplace. The recovering marketplace comes at a time when consolidation of these manufacturing operations is essentially complete. These factors come together to produce an improvement in our margins.

  • Also the process improvement at Powell Electric for metal fabrication and paint are moving along well and we are pleased with the preliminary results we're seeing here.

  • Overall, I am happy with the opportunities ahead. We have several major products on which we have agreements in principle that cannot be announced until those agreements have been signed and we receive final approval from those clients.

  • At that point we will announce those projects. I am happy to say that I received an e-mail this morning on my desk regarding a very significant long-term project. The e-mail said "The Eagle has landed" so hopefully we can announce that in the very near future.

  • That concludes my remarks. As James Brown said in an old song, "I feel good now". How about questions? Thank you.

  • +++ q-and-a.

  • Operator

  • (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS)

  • John Franzreb.

  • John Franzreb - Analyst

  • Sidoti & Company. Good morning. You have outlined some really positive things in the forecast going forward as far as earnings rebound. I was wondering could you share with us your thoughts what the backlog levels are going to look like in the year ahead in order to hit some of those targets you put out there for fiscal '05?

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • We can do that but I would have to say something Yogi Berra said. "Predictions are hard to make especially about the future." But we are optimistic with what we are seeing. I don't know -- I don't have that in front of me.

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • John, at this point in time we are confident that the orders trend that we have seen over the last couple three quarters now is going to continue into the balance of the year; and our revenues forecast is based on the assumption that we are going to maintain the order strength that we have averaged at least through the last two quarters going forward for the next couple of quarters. That gives you an indication of what we are thinking as far as the balance of this year.

  • John Franzreb - Analyst

  • Okay, Don. I mean I am just wondering if we are looking at backlog of about 140 as opposed to 160. I am trying to get a sense of the bandwidth here that we need to talk about to hit those targets? Any sense? Any thoughts?

  • (MULTIPLE SPEAKERS)

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • Specific number? No. I think that you're going to see continued backlog growth in the next couple of quarters but it is not going to be hitting 160, 180 type numbers.

  • John Franzreb - Analyst

  • And a follow-up to that. Given that raw material costs are an issue but backlog is improving and order trends are improving, can you discuss your ability to put in escalation clauses on new orders to kind of prevent any more cost erosion from higher raw material cost?

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • John, in the past several years, those escalation clauses were not very acceptable to clients. It has been a buyer's markets unfortunately; but with these changes lately we have now a number of larger contracts with escalation clauses in them. And we continue to try to put them in all the contracts. It is difficult but we are meeting with some success there.

  • John Franzreb - Analyst

  • Good. So, Tom, it is going to be less of an issue going forward than it has been the last two years? Is that what I'm hearing?

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • I believe so. Although, initially, maybe in the first quarter and part of the second quarter, there will be some contracts that will come through that don't have escalation clauses.

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • The other positive thing, John, is that year-to-year I don't see as much pressure going into 2005 because we are seeing some stabilization. The majority of the radical increase occurred earlier this year so when you're looking at year-to-year comparison, it still hasn't got a material impact compared to 2004 and 2003. I don't think you're going to see the same variance analysis when we are looking at 2005, 2004.

  • John Franzreb - Analyst

  • Thanks a lot, Tom.

  • Operator

  • Robert Longnecker (ph).

  • Robert Longnecker - Analyst

  • Rob at Barrington. Could you spin a little more color on the quarters that you're talking about and how that breaks down in terms of utilities and industrial? And, also, maybe give a little of color on what type of margins you think that this business is getting bid out relative to historical?

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • It has been a pretty even break between refinery upgrades and emission controls for utilities and some oil and gas production opportunities. It has been pretty evenly split. And opportunities going forward appear to be increasing for those.

  • As far as the margins, we have certainly been very aggressive in the last six months in our marketing sales area and would certainly hope to do better as well or better, gross margin-wise, than we did this past year.

  • Robert Longnecker - Analyst

  • How would you characterize it with the stuff you're looking at in your bidding today, relative to six months ago or 12 months ago? Is it as aggressive as it was?

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • In some cases, we are in a favored position because of some of our abilities with integrated Power Control projects, these more sophisticated and complex projects. We certainly have tried to raise those margins. But I don't know that the rest of the industry is doing that. So let's just say it will still be very aggressive numbers that we will have to put out there till there is some change. Now there are -- a few people who have announced -- two of the major competitors -- have announced price increases. But I don't know that I have seen it in fact.

  • Robert Longnecker - Analyst

  • Right, and can you just spin a little bit -- I may have missed it because I joined the call a little late but can you spin a little bit more color on what drove the SG&A increase in last quarter?

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • On the SG&A side, Rob, we ended up with about $80,000 was in the one-time cost for severance regarding our consolidation. The bigger issue is that we ended up with a higher than relative -- to the prior year higher legal and lease expense of about $500,000 and the majority of the balance which would come back to about 500,000 as well was higher year-to-year operating costs at the units that we are in the process of closing.

  • Robert Longnecker - Analyst

  • What's behind that first part? The legal and lease?

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • Robert, excuse me, but I went to add something to that. With this more aggressive sales posture, certainly, that we are taking there is an inordinate amount of travel, internationally and domestically, trying to secure these orders. So that's a pretty good clip.

  • Robert Longnecker - Analyst

  • Gotcha, okay.

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • So that probably -- that portion will continue. We are going to cover up these opportunities. Excuse me, you had another question.

  • Robert Longnecker - Analyst

  • I was just trying to get a little more color on that legal and lease expense you're talking about.

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • Well, you're looking at that with a year-to-year, quarter to quarter difference. We are pursuing several planes on projects and defending ourselves on a couple of issues that are brought against us. Nothing that would be outside the normal course of business. When you are looking at our full year numbers of $35 million, it comes back to an average of around 8.9 million a year. That is more realistic to what you'd expect on a going forward basis.

  • Robert Longnecker - Analyst

  • Sorry. What was more realistic in what you would expect going forward?

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • If you look at our full year average of $8.9 million, that is a more realistic go forward estimate. There will be some increase looking at next year, based on business expansion, but we are not looking at a $9.9 million run rate in SG&A going forward.

  • Operator

  • (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). Tom Spiro.

  • Tom Spiro - Analyst

  • Tom Spiro, Spiro Capital. Couple of questions. Number one, the CapEx budget for the new fiscal year, please?

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • CapEx budget for next year is going to be more at a maintenance level. However, we are anticipating next year to be about $5 to $6 million on an annual basis. Most of that is for work that is committed and ongoing and will be completed between now and second quarter.

  • Tom Spiro - Analyst

  • Is your plant and equipment now pretty much where you want it to be in terms of capacity, in terms of modernization and the rest?

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • Yes it is.

  • Tom Spiro - Analyst

  • Lastly the decline in the dollar against the euro and the pound over the last number of months. What kind of impact, if any, do you expect that to have on you folks?

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • I haven't seen any direct results. We have been called in on some conferences on some project international. I believe it may have a positive impact. But it hasn't -- those orders haven't been secured yet. It certainly puts us in a more competitive light in several of our product lines.

  • Operator

  • Bill Larber.

  • Bill Larber - Analyst

  • Bill Larber with Sterling Capital. Don, did you mention 5 to 10 million anticipating free cash flow for this coming year?

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • Going forward next year, we expect there to be a use of cash.

  • Bill Larber - Analyst

  • Use of cash.

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • Basically we are going to have $5 to $6 million capital expenditures and that cash from operations are going to be basically neutral and maybe slightly negative, as we see some working capital growth with business expansion.

  • Bill Larber - Analyst

  • Well I guess that answers or sticks with the second part of my question. I was going to ask, what you had in mind for the use of this cash. I mean, your cash position is building. Can you comment on that?

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • When we are looking at the cash and our strategic initiative within the organization, we have been over the last year, year and a half, evaluating different acquisition opportunities. We are very selective in evaluating. There is not a lot of opportunities out there. But that is where we would like to invest that money.

  • Bill Larber - Analyst

  • Okay so acquisitions would be your first choice?

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • Yes sir.

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • Yes sir.

  • Operator

  • John Franzreb.

  • John Franzreb - Analyst

  • The previous caller touched on my question if I could just kind of follow-up on that. In acquisition strategy you talked about it for quite some time. When can we expect, maybe, see something happen? I would imagine the valuations for the companies you are looking for have probably bottomed and if orders are recovering across the board are only likely to get higher. Can you discuss the timing of an acquisition?

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • There are two acquisitions that we are currently having discussions on, but I don't know that I can say an exact time on those or if they will be successful. Don't exactly know how to answer, as soon as it is proven.

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • John, you realize that when you are pursuing acquisitions, there has to the a willing seller as well. As much of the issue as we've had in the last year is not us coming up with a valuation price but it is also the seller looking at the market and thinking what the proper timing is from their perspective.

  • John Franzreb - Analyst

  • Assuming you don't find a willing seller within the next six months, what would be the second use for the cash then?

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • I think that is something that we will have to discuss at that point in time.

  • John Franzreb - Analyst

  • Fair enough. That's it for me, thank you.

  • Operator

  • Robert Longnecker.

  • Robert Longnecker - Analyst

  • Can you also give a little more color on the offshore oil and gas platform business and where that stands and see that as an area that is going to be a nice profitable business for you guys again?

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • It has been a little slow toward the last half of '04. There are a number of projects out there, currently, that are requiring budgetary estimates and we do see opportunities that will help us in booking opportunities over the course of the next three to four months. And beyond.

  • I don't know how much it will affect the revenues though until the latter part of '05 or '06. There are some significant opportunities that we are beginning to look at but those are slow to materialize usually.

  • John Franzreb - Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Tom Spiro.

  • Tom Spiro - Analyst

  • Tom Spiro. The Holland and Lincoln tunnel job that you folks are working on. How much is left?

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • As of the end of the fiscal year we had $19.5 million remaining in our backlog on that contract.

  • Operator

  • (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS)

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • No further questions?

  • Operator

  • Jeffrey Kerr.

  • Jeffrey Kerr - Analyst

  • Kerr Financial Group. Quick question on the (technical difficulty) Transit bill. Can you repeat how much potential there is, what that involves?

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • That Transit bill is estimated between 250 billion and 300 billion over a six-year period. That will include highway, tunnel bridge as well as transit and I don't have an absolute breakdown on that at this point. There was an extension of 7 billion (ph) given just about a few months ago that takes us through May. But $7 million (ph) is really not enough to get anybody excited to start investing. If they can get this one passed it will have a very favorable impact on our opportunities.

  • Operator

  • Bill Larber.

  • Bill Larber - Analyst

  • Sterling Capital. Tom, we are pretty new to Powell and so this is probably going to be exhibited in my question here but it seems there is a little bit of an inconsistency between your description of the general market conditions, how they are improving, and some of the opportunities that you are seeing with your guidance. And I guess is that -- am I missing something there or are you folks maybe being a little more conservative based upon this past year?

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • I have a tendency, normally, to be somewhat conservative. Just by the very nature. I don't like to put predictions out there and miss them and so I do have a tendency to be a little conservative but certainly the opportunities going forward look very favorable at this point.

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • Bill I guess the only thing is that you have got to remember that in our business, a significant amount of our cycle time is going to be six to nine months. So when you are looking at the bringing the orders in and then converting it to revenues and dropping to the bottom line, there is a couple of quarters' time lag on average. So that when you are modeling and looking at the future, what we're trying to do now is figure out how much is going to fall into 2005 vs. 2006.

  • Bill Larber - Analyst

  • I was going to ask earlier but I think you are ready addressed this. In terms of your guidance for '05, you are not anticipating any further pressure on raw material cost?

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • At this point in time, we think the most significant pressures that we have seen this past year will not continue into 2005.

  • Bill Larber - Analyst

  • You are not baking in a market improvement either, are you?

  • Don Madison - VP and CFO

  • That is correct.

  • Bill Larber - Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • At this time, we have no additional questions. Please continue with any further statements you wish to make.

  • Tom Powell - President and CEO

  • Thank you, folks, for joining us today. We appreciate your interest and we look forward to talking with you in the next quarter. Have a good afternoon.

  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will conclude the Powell Industries Q4 2004 earnings conference call. We thank you for your participation on today's presentation. If you like to listen to an audio replay of the conference please dial 303-590-3000. You'll be entering an access code of 1101-7681. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to listen to an audio replay of today's conference please dial 303-590-3000. You'll be asked to enter an access code of 1101 7681. At this time we will conclude. We thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.