Pool Corp (POOL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Pool Corporation fourth quarter 2024 conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

您好，歡迎您參加 Pool Corporation 2024 年第四季電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Melanie Hart, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, ma'am.

現在，我想將會議交給高級副總裁兼財務長梅蘭妮·哈特女士。請繼續，女士。

Thank you, and welcome to our fourth quarter and year-end 2024 earnings conference call. Our discussion, comments and responses to questions today may include forward-looking statements including management's outlook for 2025 and future periods.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第四季和年終收益電話會議。我們今天的討論、評論和回答可能包括前瞻性陳述，包括管理階層對 2025 年及未來時期的展望。

Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today. Information regarding the factors and variables that could cause actual results to differ from projected results are discussed in our 10-K. In addition, we may make references to non-GAAP financial measures in our comments.

實際結果可能與今天討論的結果有重大差異。我們的 10-K 中討論了可能導致實際結果與預測結果不同的因素和變數的資訊。此外，我們可能會在評論中引用非公認會計準則財務指標。

A description and reconciliation of our non-GAAP financial measures included in our press release are posted to our corporate website in the Investor Relations section. We have included a presentation on our Investor Relations website to summarize key points from our press release and call comments.

我們新聞稿中包含的非公認會計準則財務指標的描述和對帳已發佈在我們公司網站的投資者關係部分。我們在投資者關係網站上新增了一份演示文稿，總結了新聞稿和電話評論中的要點。

Pete Arvan, our President and CEO, will begin our call today.

我們的總裁兼執行長 Pete Arvan 將今天開始我們的電話會議。

Thank you, Melanie, and good morning, everyone. This morning, we released our full year and fourth quarter 2024 results, reflecting sales slightly better than our earlier expectations and solid execution by our teams.

謝謝你，梅蘭妮，大家早安。今天上午，我們發布了 2024 年全年和第四季度的業績，結果反映出銷售額略好於我們之前的預期，並且我們團隊的執行力強勁。

As construction and remodeling activities remained under pressure, we focused on providing an unmatched customer experience, driving growth in our maintenance business, including double-digit growth in our private label chemical sales and continued development and deployment of our POOL360 ecosystem and tools.

由於建築和改造活動仍然面臨壓力，我們專注於提供無與倫比的客戶體驗，推動維護業務的成長，包括自有品牌化學品銷售的兩位數成長以及 POOL360 生態系統和工具的持續開發和部署。

We believe that consumer spending on discretionary, especially that which requires financing continues to remain a headwind. While still preliminary, we believe new pool construction will land at approximately 61,000 units for 2024, which equates to a 15% decline in new units compared to last year.

我們認為，消費者在可自由支配的支出，特別是需要融資的支出上仍然是一個阻力。雖然仍處於初步階段，但我們預計 2024 年新泳池建設數量將達到約 61,000 個，與去年相比新建泳池數量下降 15%。

From the pandemic-driven peak to the most recent data, we have seen new pool construction declined by approximately [50%] in units with declines also observed in renovation and remodel. Considering this, along with the general economic headwinds, we are pleased with our team's ability to gain share in a tough environment.

從疫情導致的高峰到最新數據，我們看到新泳池建設數量下降了約 [50%]，翻新和改造數量也下降。考慮到這一點，加上總體經濟逆風，我們對我們的團隊在艱難環境中獲得份額的能力感到滿意。

We believe our share position has grown driven by our best-in-class team, solid execution, unmatched value proposition and continued investment in a resilient industry.

我們相信，我們的市場份額不斷增長，這得益於我們一流的團隊、穩健的執行力、無與倫比的價值主張以及對有彈性的行業的持續投資。

Now, I would like to recap our full year and fourth quarter results. For the full year, we delivered $5.3 billion in revenue, down 4% from 2023 and slightly above our latest guidance driven by a tremendous team effort in creating an unmatched customer value proposition.

現在，我想回顧一下我們的全年和第四季的業績。全年，我們實現了 53 億美元的收入，較 2023 年下降 4%，略高於我們的最新預期，這得益於團隊在創造無與倫比的客戶價值主張方面所做的巨大努力。

Our gross margin finished the year at 29.7%, reflecting a weaker product mix as higher gross margin construction and remodel related products represented a smaller portion of our total revenues, along with some competitive pressures and customer mix impacts, which Melanie will comment on in her remarks.

我們全年的毛利率為 29.7%，這反映出產品組合較弱，因為毛利率較高的建築和改造相關產品在我們的總收入中所佔的比例較小，同時還存在一些競爭壓力和客戶組合影響，Melanie 將在她的演講中對此進行評論。

We generated operating income of $617 million, operating margin of 11.6% in line with our expanded 2020 operating margin and operating cash flow of $659 million, we consider this a solid achievement while continuing our strategic technology investments, sales center network expansion and overcoming higher operating cost inflation over this period. We generated diluted EPS of $11.30 a share, including a $0.23 ASU tax benefit.

我們實現了 6.17 億美元的營業收入，營業利潤率為 11.6%，與我們 2020 年擴大的營業利潤率一致，營業現金流為 6.59 億美元，我們認為這是一項堅實的成就，同時我們將繼續進行戰略技術投資、銷售中心網絡擴張並克服這一時期更高的運營成本通膨。我們產生的稀釋每股收益為 11.30 美元，其中包括 0.23 美元的 ASU 稅收優惠。

For the fourth quarter, total sales were $988 million, down 2% compared to last year, continuing the year-over-year sequential improvement we demonstrated throughout the year. Gross margins improved 10 bps to 29.4% compared to the same period last year and we generated operating income of $60.7 million, operating margin of 6.1% and diluted EPS of $0.98 per share, including a $0.01 ASU tax benefit.

第四季度，總銷售額為 9.88 億美元，較去年下降 2%，延續了我們全年呈現的同比連續成長勢頭。與去年同期相比，毛利率提高了 10 個基點，達到 29.4%，我們的營業收入為 6,070 萬美元，營業利潤率為 6.1%，每股攤薄收益為 0.98 美元，其中包括 0.01 美元的 ASU 稅收優惠。

Breaking sales down by geography for the full year. Florida came in flat, while we saw a mid single-digit decline in the other year round markets. Florida showed resilience throughout the year and in the fourth quarter outperformed our other markets with 12% growth.

按地區劃分全年銷售額。佛羅裡達州的銷量持平，而我們看到其他全年市場銷量均出現中等個位數下滑。佛羅裡達州全年表現出強勁的韌性，第四季以 12% 的成長率超越了我們的其他市場。

Repair and replacement activity following Hurricanes Helene and Milton provided some weather-related benefit to Florida's fourth quarter results, but the storms likely delayed some construction and renovation activity.

颶風海倫和米爾頓過後進行的修復和更換活動為佛羅裡達州第四季度的業績帶來了一些與天氣有關的好處，但風暴可能推遲了一些建築和翻新活動。

Remaining year-round markets saw sales decline ranging from 3% to 7% in the quarter. Similar to what we observed throughout the year, maintenance-related sales held up well, while construction-related products saw pressure, particularly in Texas and California.

本季其餘全年市場的銷售額下降了 3% 至 7%。與我們全年觀察到的情況類似，維護相關產品的銷售保持良好，而建築相關產品的銷售則面臨壓力，尤其是在德克薩斯州和加利福尼亞州。

For Horizon, net sales declined 6% for the full year and 4% for the fourth quarter. Stronger commercial irrigation projects, along with a maintenance-related sales offset softness in the residential construction activities.

對於 Horizo​​n 而言，全年淨銷售額下降了 6%，第四季下降了 4%。商業灌溉項目的加強以及維護相關的銷售抵消了住宅建築活動的疲軟。

Considering PVC pipe deflation impacts, volumes came in mostly flat for Horizon for the fourth quarter, which we consider an encouraging and improving trend. For Europe, sales declined 9% for the full year and 5% in the fourth quarter. We noted year-over-year sequential improvement during the 2024 swimming pool season in Europe.

考慮到 PVC 管道通貨緊縮的影響，Horizo​​​​n 第四季度的銷量基本持平，我們認為這是一個令人鼓舞的改善趨勢。歐洲全年銷售額下降 9%，第四季下降 5%。我們注意到，2024 年歐洲游泳池季節較去年同期有所改善。

On to our product categories, chemical sales increased 2% for the year and 8% in the fourth quarter. As mentioned, mid-teens growth in our private label chemical sales supported our ability to grow overall chemicals greater than the increase in the installed base.

就我們的產品類別而言，化學品銷售額全年增長了 2%，第四季度增長了 8%。如上所述，我們的自有品牌化學品銷售額實現了十五六倍的成長率，支持了我們整體化學品成長的能力，超過了安裝基數的成長。

Fourth quarter sales were lifted by post-storm cleanup efforts in Florida but continued to show growth across the overall business. At the winter industry shows, we also unveiled our new chemical branding and marketing plans, which will create even more demand for these best-in-class products.

第四季的銷售額受到佛羅裡達州風暴後清理工作的推動，但整體業務繼續呈現成長。在冬季產業展會上，我們也推出了新的化學品品牌和行銷計劃，這將為這些一流產品創造更多的需求。

Complementing this, we introduced branded test trips that will work with our private label consumer app, which is new for the 2025 season and will allow us to drive additional growth through our dealers for our proprietary products.

除此之外，我們還推出了品牌試駕活動，該活動將與我們的自有品牌消費者應用程式配合使用，這是 2025 年推出的新產品，將使我們能夠透過經銷商為我們的專有產品推動額外的成長。

Building materials sales declined 10% for the full year and 8% in the fourth quarter, considering the estimated 15% decline in new pool units constructed. These results are strong indicators that our value -- our proprietary NPT branded pool and tile finishes, our expansive outdoor living offering the power of our model and the superior tools and expertise provide to our support -- or to provide to our builders.

考慮到新建泳池數量預計下降 15%，建築材料銷售額全年下降 10%，第四季下降 8%。這些結果有力地證明了我們的價值——我們專有的 NPT 品牌泳池和瓷磚飾面、我們廣闊的戶外生活提供了我們模型的力量以及為我們的支持提供的卓越工具和專業知識——或為我們的建築商提供的。

Equipment sales, which exclude cleaners were flat for the year and up 6% in the fourth quarter. As expected, maintenance-related equipment demand remained steady, and the fourth quarter included heightened repair and replacement activity in Florida.

不包括清潔劑的設備銷售額全年持平，第四季成長 6%。正如預期的那樣，維護相關設備的需求保持穩定，第四季度佛羅裡達州的維修和更換活動增加。

Not only during this critical recovery period, but also throughout the year, our supply chain teams worked very closely with our vendors to improve inventory vitality and fill rates while reducing days on hand.

不僅在此關鍵的恢復時期，而且全年，我們的供應鏈團隊都與供應商密切合作，以提高庫存活力和填充率，同時減少庫存天數。

We have invested in people and processes and technology that helped deliver a better customer experience and solidify the confidence that we will effectively deliver needed products when they are needed most.

我們對人才、流程和技術進行了投資，以幫助提供更好的客戶體驗，並鞏固了我們在客戶最需要的時候有效地提供所需產品的信心。

Turning to end markets. Our commercial pool product sales continued to grow with 9% growth both for the full year and in the fourth quarter. We continue to invest in capabilities that allow us to take a larger share position in a very technical market. Our recent investments, which include acquisitions, inventory and talent expansion will allow us to continue delivering growth in commercial aquatics.

轉向終端市場。我們的商業泳池產品銷售額持續成長，全年和第四季均成長 9%。我們將繼續投資於能夠讓我們在技術性極強的市場中佔據更大份額的能力。我們最近的投資包括收購、庫存和人才擴張，這將使我們能夠繼續在商業水上運動領域中成長。

Sales to our independent retail customers declined 4% for the full year but were up 1% in the fourth quarter. Pinch A Penny retail sales representing our franchisee sales to their end customers increased 4% for the year and 15% in the fourth quarter.

我們對獨立零售客戶的銷售額全年下降了 4%，但第四季成長了 1%。Pinch A Penny 零售額（代表我們的特許經營商向其終端客戶的銷售額）全年增長 4%，第四季度增長 15%。

While the franchise sales to end customers have been steady throughout 2024, most Pinch stores are concentrated in Florida, where a significant amount of storm-related repair and replacement activity occurred in the fourth quarter.

雖然特許經營對終端客戶的銷售在整個 2024 年一直保持穩定，但大多數 Pinch 商店都集中在佛羅裡達州，該州在第四季度發生了大量與風暴相關的維修和更換活動。

Orders through our B2B POOL360 application increased to 12.5% in the fourth quarter compared to 11% at the same time last year. As we introduce new and improved versions of our POOL360 water test and POOL360 service tools, we consider this metric and private label chemical product sales to be the most meaningful indicators of success in the early adoption and ongoing utilization of these tools and applications.

第四季透過我們的 B2B POOL360 應用程式下達的訂單量成長至 12.5%，而去年同期為 11%。當我們推出 POOL360 水質測試和 POOL360 服務工具的全新改進版本時，我們認為這項指標和自有品牌化學產品銷售是這些工具和應用程式在早期採用和持續使用中取得成功的最有意義的指標。

Also noteworthy, our pool water chemistry test recommended over 1 million product applications to consumers through our dealers in 2024 to balance pool and spa water. Over the long term, we see POOL360 service as a revolutionary opportunity to help our maintenance customers grow their business and create efficiencies and productivities in their operations and in ours.

同樣值得注意的是，我們的泳池水化學測試建議消費者在 2024 年透過經銷商使用超過 100 萬種產品來平衡泳池和水療池的水。從長遠來看，我們將 POOL360 服務視為一個革命性機遇，可協助我們的維護客戶拓展業務並提高其和我們的營運效率和生產力。

We remain focused on tactically expanding our widespread and fully integrated sales center network. In 2024, we opened 10 new locations and added two more through acquisitions, bringing our total count to almost 450 sales centers.

我們將繼續專注於戰術性地拓展我們廣泛且完全整合的銷售中心網路。2024 年，我們開設了 10 家新店，並透過收購增加了 2 家店，使我們的銷售中心總數達到近 450 家。

Our Pinch A Penny franchise network added 11 new stores, including seven in Texas for a year-end network total of 295 stores. With the growth of our Pinch A Penny network, we have added additional capabilities, and as of the end of 2024, our operating distribution points specific for continued franchise growth in both Dallas and Houston.

我們的 Pinch A Penny 特許經營網絡新增 11 家店，其中 7 家位於德克薩斯州，年底網絡總數達到 295 家店。隨著我們的 Pinch A Penny 網路的成長，我們增加了額外的功能，截至 2024 年底，我們的營運分銷點專門用於達拉斯和休士頓的持續特許經營成長。

Pinch A Penny will open our first store in the Arizona market in the coming weeks and has developed distribution capabilities to support this market and future expansion in the Western Sunbelt.

Pinch A Penny 將在未來幾週在亞利桑那州市場開設第一家商店，並已開發分銷能力以支持該市場以及未來在西部陽光地帶的擴張。

Now, I'd like to frame up our view of the 2025 market and outlook. Our teams delivered solid results in 2024, executing on our strategic initiatives to grow share in both our steady maintenance-related business and to capture available new pool and remodel work in a weaker discretionary spending environment, while investing in our capabilities that further differentiate our customer experience.

現在，我想概括一下我們對 2025 年市場和前景的看法。我們的團隊在 2024 年取得了穩健的業績，執行了我們的戰略計劃，以增加我們穩定的維護相關業務的份額，並在較弱的可自由支配支出環境中獲取可用的新泳池和改造工作，同時投資於我們進一步區分客戶體驗的能力。

Our expectations for 2025 are no different under the present macroeconomic conditions. The current interest rate outlook is not likely to benefit our industry in the near term. Having said this, our dealers continue to communicate inquiries on new pool construction and discretionary remodeled projects are solid. But when financing is involved, we believe consumers tend to remain hesitant.

在目前的宏觀經濟條件下，我們對 2025 年的預期並沒有什麼不同。目前的利率前景短期內不太可能為我們的產業帶來好處。話雖如此，我們的經銷商仍然繼續傳達有關新泳池建設和可自由支配的改造項目的諮詢。但當涉及到融資時，我們認為消費者往往會猶豫不決。

As in 2024, we expect maintenance-related product sales to be steady, offering some growth potential from the 2024 increase in the installed base, modest inflation and continued market share gains. In the meantime, we remain aggressive in helping our customers grow their business and providing an unmatched customer experience.

與 2024 年一樣，我們預期維護相關產品的銷售將保持穩定，並將從 2024 年安裝基數的增加、適度的通膨和持續的市場份額成長中帶來一定的成長潛力。同時，我們仍積極幫助客戶發展業務並提供無與倫比的客戶體驗。

Breaking down our topline expectations, we expect total sales growth for 2025 to be relatively flat to up slightly. Growth components include benefits from inflation of 1% to 2%, some maintenance-related product sales growth and continued market share expansion.

根據我們的營收預期，我們預計 2025 年的總銷售額成長將相對持平或略有上升。成長因素包括1%至2%的通貨膨脹帶來的好處、一些維護相關產品銷售的成長以及持續的市場份額擴大。

Moving to the discretionary portions of our business. Currently, we expect new pool construction in units to be relatively flat. While around 60,000 units may be close to the bottom, the uncertain economic environment makes it unclear how quickly entry-level financing dependent consumers will return to the market.

轉向我們業務的可自由支配部分。目前，我們預期各單位新建泳池的進度相對穩定。雖然 60,000 輛左右可能接近底部，但不確定的經濟環境使得依賴入門級融資的消費者能多快重返市場仍不明朗。

Renovation and remodel activities should be stable in most markets. Over the past two years, remodel projects have been lower in number and scope, indicating separation of projects for a pullback of more highly featured comprehensive project spending. Deferred remodels will likely be a growth opportunity as the economy improves, but we remain cautious at the present time.

大多數市場的翻新和改造活動應該保持穩定。在過去的兩年中，改造專案的數量和範圍都有所減少，顯示專案分離，功能更強大的綜合專案支出有所減少。隨著經濟好轉，延期改造可能會成為一個成長機會，但我們目前仍保持謹慎。

Taking these factors into consideration, our 2024 guidance for diluted earnings per share is $11.08 to $11.58 per share, including an estimated $0.08 ASU benefit. Melanie will go into more details on the remainder of our P&L assumptions and capital allocation plans in her prepared remarks.

考慮到這些因素，我們對 2024 年每股攤薄收益的預期為每股 11.08 美元至 11.58 美元，其中包括預計 0.08 美元的 ASU 收益。梅蘭妮將在其準備好的演講中詳細介紹我們剩餘的損益假設和資本配置計劃。

Looking out beyond 2025, we're fortunate to operate in an industry that grows upon itself. Each year, new pools go into the ground, creating growing demand for the products we sell to maintain and improve those pools every day.

展望 2025 年以後，我們很幸運能夠在一個能夠自我發展的產業中運作。每年都有新的游泳池建成，對我們銷售的用於維護和改善這些游泳池的產品的需求也不斷增長。

Continuing to invest in expanding our sales in our footprint, developing enhanced technological tools that differentiate our value proposition creating productivity for us and our customers and introducing new products are instrumental in growing our business.

繼續投資擴大我們的銷售範圍，開發增強的技術工具，使我們的價值主張與眾不同，為我們和我們的客戶創造生產力，並推出新產品，這些都有助於我們的業務成長。

With our intense focus on serving the pool service professional, pool builder and DIY markets through our incredible dealer base and the Pinch A Penny franchise, we can continue to grow our share through all economic cycles.

透過我們龐大的經銷商基礎和 Pinch A Penny 特許經營權，我們高度重視為泳池服務專業人士、泳池建造者和 DIY 市場提供服務，因此我們可以在所有經濟週期中繼續擴大我們的份額。

Additionally, the long-term factors that position outdoor living as a growing industry continue to thrive. Southern migration, the growing millennial and emerging Gen Z home buying population, a housing shortage and technological advancement will support a favorable long-term growth outlook.

此外，推動戶外生活成為一個不斷發展的產業的長期因素繼續蓬勃發展。南方移民、千禧世代和新興的 Z 世代購屋人口的成長、住房短缺和技術進步將支持良好的長期成長前景。

As I reflect on how we have emerged from our significant growth cycle post-pandemic, I see a company that has strategically expanded its footprint, grown its revenue base by $2 billion, increased margins, accelerated the growth of a franchise network acquired and increased the utilization of a vertically integrated chemical repackaging plant, and developed technological tools to help both service and retail customers grow and enhance their productivity.

當我回顧我們如何走出疫情後的重要成長週期時，我看到一家公司策略性地擴大了足跡，收入基礎增加了 20 億美元，提高了利潤率，加速了收購的特許經營網絡的增長，提高了垂直整合的化學品重新包裝工廠的利用率，並開發了技術工具來幫助服務和零售客戶發展並提高生產力。

Our widespread distribution network, combined with our four central shipping locations throughout the US and fully integrated ERP system differentiate us and allow us to efficiently provide our customers with the products they need, when they need them along with unmatched expertise to help them grow their business. We are larger and more strategically positioned and integrated than anyone else in the industry.

我們廣泛的分銷網絡，加上遍布美國的四個中心裝運地點和完全集成的 ERP 系統，使我們與眾不同，並使我們能夠在客戶需要時高效地為他們提供他們需要的產品，同時提供無與倫比的專業知識來幫助他們發展業務。我們比業內任何其他人都規模更大、策略定位更明確、整合程度更高。

As I wrap up, I want to especially thank the POOLCORP team. Their ability to adapt to their dynamic environment focused on what they can control and propel our growth forward gives me great pride.

最後，我要特別感謝 POOLCORP 團隊。他們能夠適應動態環境，專注於自己能夠掌控的事情，推動我們的成長，這讓我感到非常自豪。

I also want to thank our vendors. Our commitment to them and the industry is unmatched, and we truly value the partnerships. Lastly, I want to thank our customers for helping homeowners reap the benefits of outdoor living.

我還要感謝我們的供應商。我們對他們和產業的承諾是無與倫比的，我們真正重視合作關係。最後，我要感謝我們的客戶幫助房主享受戶外生活的益處。

And I will now turn the call over to Melanie Hart, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, for her prepared remarks.

現在，我將把電話轉給我們的高級副總裁兼財務長梅蘭妮·哈特 (Melanie Hart)，請她發表準備好的演講。

Thank you, Pete. I'll start with a quick recap of our fourth quarter results to highlight our 2024 accomplishments and then discuss our plans for 2025 based on today's environment.

謝謝你，皮特。我將首先簡要回顧我們第四季度的業績，重點介紹我們在 2024 年取得的成就，然後根據當今的環境討論我們 2025 年的計劃。

Sales reflecting a 2% year-over-year decrease for the fourth quarter continued to show an improving trend from the beginning of the year, where we were down 7% in first quarter, 5% in second, and 3% in the third quarter. Fourth quarter included an additional selling day, which fell into December. Therefore, having little impact on the overall results for the quarter.

第四季銷售額年減 2%，延續了年初以來的改善趨勢，第一季銷售額下降 7%，第二季下降 5%，第三季下降 3%。第四季增加了一個銷售日，該銷售日位於 12 月。因此，對本季的整體業績影響不大。

Pete commented on the outperformance we saw in Florida, primarily weather-driven which had an approximately 1% benefit in quarterly sales. Similar to the second and third quarters, we estimate a net 1% inflation benefit, positive realized pricing was offset by lower selling prices for chemicals and commodities over the same quarter last year.

皮特評論了我們在佛羅裡達州看到的優異表現，這主要是受天氣影響，季度銷售額增長了約 1%。與第二季和第三季類似，我們估計淨通膨收益為 1%，正的實際定價被去年同期化學品和大宗商品的銷售價格下降所抵銷。

Sales continued to be impacted by the lower levels of new pool construction and repair and remodel activity, which contributed to an estimated 5% comparative decrease in sales, mitigated by positive volumes in maintenance products.

銷售持續受到新泳池建設及維修和改造活動水準較低的影響，導致銷售額相對下降約 5%，但維護產品的銷售量增加。

Gross margin of 29.4% was consistent with prior year fourth quarter of 29.3%. Product mix related to lower sales of building materials continued to dilute margin similar to what we have seen throughout the year and were balanced by year-over-year improvements from pricing and supply chain actions.

毛利率為29.4%，與去年第四季的29.3%一致。與建築材料銷售下降相關的產品結構繼續稀釋利潤率，類似於我們全年所看到的情況，並透過定價和供應鏈行動的同比改善來平衡。

Fourth quarter operating expenses increased by $15 million or 7% over last year. Including certain timing shifts of costs from the third quarter of 2024, the 10 new sales centers opened during the year and our incremental technology investment.

第四季營運費用比去年同期增加了 1,500 萬美元，增幅為 7%。包括 2024 年第三季起的某些成本時間變化、年內開設的 10 個新銷售中心以及我們的增量技術投資。

Operating income of $61 million compares to prior year operating income of $79 million. Operating margin was 6.1% in the quarter compared to 7.9% in the prior year. Diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter was $0.98, compared to $1.32 in the fourth quarter of 2023.

營業收入為 6,100 萬美元，而去年同期的營業收入為 7,900 萬美元。本季營業利益率為 6.1%，去年同期為 7.9%。第四季每股攤薄收益為 0.98 美元，而 2023 年第四季為 1.32 美元。

We are pleased with the outcome of our full year 2024 results, and the way that we have managed the business in a year with continued macroeconomic pressures and lower levels of consumer discretionary spending.

我們對 2024 年全年業績的結果感到滿意，也對我們在持續的宏觀經濟壓力和消費者可自由支配支出水平較低的一年中的業務管理方式感到滿意。

We maintained our significantly stepped up 2020 operating margin, compared to historical results even with sales contracting and our commitments to expanding our footprint and technology services to our customers. This was accomplished by continuing to make the right choices to focus on the long-term growth and profitability of the company.

儘管我們簽訂了銷售合約並承諾擴大業務範圍並向客戶提供技術服務，與歷史業績相比，我們仍保持了 2020 年大幅提升的營業利潤率。這是透過繼續做出正確的選擇並專注於公司的長期成長和獲利能力來實現的。

Solid earnings, combined with excellent working capital management, including a $76 million reduction in inventory, propels our operating cash flow generation to almost $660 million. Our capital allocation for the year included 10 greenfield sales centers and two acquired sales centers.

穩健的獲利加上出色的營運資本管理（包括 7,600 萬美元的庫存減少），推動我們的營運現金流達到近 6.6 億美元。我們今年的資本配置包括10個綠地銷售中心和2個收購的銷售中心。

11 new Pinch A Penny franchisee stores increased capabilities in our POOL360 ecosystem. A $103 million reduction in debt outstanding and $483 million returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

11 家新的 Pinch A Penny 特許經營店增強了我們 POOL360 生態系統的功能。未償還債務減少 1.03 億美元，並透過股利和股票回購向股東返還 4.83 億美元。

Net sales of $5.3 billion continues to represent our leadership position in the outdoor living space. The 4% sales decrease was primarily driven by the approximately 15% decrease in new pool construction units, and over 10% estimated decrease in full renovation and remodel spend. Collectively, these impacted topline sales by around 5%.

53 億美元的淨銷售額持續彰顯我們在戶外生活領域的領導地位。銷售額下降 4% 主要是由於新泳池建設單位數量下降約 15% 以及全面翻新和改造支出預計將下降 10% 以上。總體而言，這些因素對營收產生了約 5% 的影響。

Maintenance held up very well overall with volume improvement ahead of the growth in the installed base of pools, and realizing about 2% pricing from pass-through of vendor product cost increases. Chemical and commodity pricing have offset the positive pricing impact by 1% or an overall 1% net pricing benefit.

總體而言，維護工作保持得非常好，其數量改善超過了池安裝基數的成長，並且透過轉嫁供應商產品成本增加實現了約 2% 的定價。化學品和商品定價已抵消了正向定價影響 1% 或整體 1% 的淨定價收益。

Unfavorable weather during the first part of the year has been offset in the fourth quarter for an overall impact of less than 1% for the full year. Lower sales at Horizon Europe resulted in an additional 1% decrease.

上半年的不利天氣因素已在第四季度得到抵消，對全年的整體影響不到 1%。Horizo​​n Europe 的銷售額下降導致其銷售額又下降了 1%。

We estimate that our 2024 full product sales were around 64% in maintenance items, 22% used for renovation and remodel and 14% for new pool construction projects. This compares to 2023, where the breakout was closer to 62% maintenance products, 24% renovation and remodel, and 14% for new pool construction.

我們估計，2024 年我們全部產品的銷售額中約 64% 用於維護項目，22% 用於翻新和改造，14% 用於新泳池建設項目。相較之下，2023 年的細分市場比例接近 62% 為維護產品、24% 為翻新和改造，以及 14% 為新泳池建設。

Our sales for products we track for use in new pool construction and remodel saw less of a decrease in the overall market as our building materials product finished the year down 10%, even including negative impacts of pricing.

我們追蹤的用於新泳池建設和改造的產品的銷售額在整體市場上下降幅度較小，因為我們的建築材料產品全年下降了 10%，即使考慮到定價的負面影響。

We continue to believe that our long-term gross margin target of approximately 30% is achievable in a normalized industry growth environment and would expect that to vary seasonally. We achieved a gross margin of 29.7% for 2024, compared to the 30% realized in the prior year.

我們仍然相信，在正常的產業成長環境下，我們約 30% 的長期毛利率目標是可以實現的，並且預計該目標將隨季節變化。我們 2024 年的毛利率為 29.7%，而前一年的毛利率為 30%。

In 2024, product mix mostly related to lower levels of new construction and customer mix where our larger customers fared better overall than our smaller customers negatively impacted gross margins. These fluctuations were offset by positive contribution realized from the reversal of previously recorded import taxes, pricing benefits, increased private label chemical sales and a return to normal for purchase-related volume incentive.

2024 年，產品組合主要與較低的新建築和客戶組合有關，其中我們的大型客戶總體上比較小型客戶表現更好，這對毛利率產生了負面影響。這些波動被先前記錄的進口稅的逆轉、定價優惠、自有品牌化學品銷售的增加以及購買相關批量激勵的恢復正常所帶來的積極貢獻所抵消。

Specific to product mix changes, our building materials as a percentage of sales represented 12% of sales in 2024 compared to 13% in 2023. Our operating margin at 11.6% was consistent with our 2020 operating margin of 11.8%.

具體到產品結構的變化，我們的建築材料佔銷售額的百分比在 2024 年為 12%，而 2023 年為 13%。我們的營業利益率為 11.6%，與 2020 年的 11.8% 營業利益率一致。

This includes the incremental investment in technology or 18 basis points impact to 2024. The comparison here is important in that we have maintained profitability after a period of sales contraction while managing through much higher levels of cost inflation.

這包括對技術的增量投資或到 2024 年的 18 個基點的影響。這裡的比較很重要，因為我們在經歷了一段時間的銷售萎縮之後仍然保持了盈利能力，同時也管理了更高水準的成本通膨。

Our operating expenses increased 5% or $45 million to $958 million. Included in the increase was approximately $32 million of future gross levers comprised of the $20 million related to technology, and $12 million for the addition of the 10 new greenfield service centers.

我們的營運費用增加了 5%，即 4,500 萬美元，達到 9.58 億美元。增加的部分包括約 3200 萬美元的未來總槓桿，其中 2000 萬美元與技術有關，1200 萬美元用於增加 10 個新的綠地服務中心。

The remaining $12 million or around 1.5% increase represents significant capacity creation efforts where we were able to control volume-related expenses, utilize our footprint, gain operating efficiencies and control the increase in total operating expenses to a much lower rate than the inflationary cost impact to the business.

剩餘的 1,200 萬美元或約 1.5% 的增幅代表著巨大的產能創造努力，我們能夠控制與產量相關的費用、利用我們的足跡、提高營運效率，並將總營運費用的增幅控制在遠低於通膨成本對業務的影響的水平。

We had an ASU benefit of $8.8 million or $0.23 per diluted share for the full year, of which $0.01 was added in the fourth quarter. Excluding ASU, our full year tax rate was 25%. We've finished the year with earnings per share of $11.30 for 2024, which was 15% lower than prior year reported EPS of $13.35. Excluding the ASU benefit, our EPS of $11.07 was a decrease of 16% compared to $13.18.

我們全年的 ASU 收益為 880 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.23 美元，其中第四季度增加了 0.01 美元。不包括 ASU，我們的全年稅率為 25%。我們 2024 年的每股收益為 11.30 美元，比去年報告的每股收益 13.35 美元低 15%。除去 ASU 收益，我們的每股收益為 11.07 美元，較 13.18 美元下降了 16%。

Coming off of a record cash flow from operating activities of $888 million in 2023, we achieved 2024 cash flows of 152% of net income. We reduced inventory, a larger percentage than the sales decrease, even while providing stock for our 10 new locations.

繼 2023 年創紀錄的 8.88 億美元經營活動現金流之後，我們 2024 年的現金流量達到了淨收入的 152%。我們減少庫存，其比例比銷售額的下降還要大，即使在為我們的 10 個新店提供庫存的情況下也是如此。

Cash flow in 2024 includes $68.5 million of deferred tax payments for those impacted by Hurricane Francine, which will be paid in the first quarter of 2025 and lower the cash flow for that period. Even without the tax timing benefit, cash flow from operations exceeded net income by 36%.

2024 年的現金流包括為受颶風弗朗辛影響的人們支付的 6,850 萬美元的遞延稅款，這筆錢將在 2025 年第一季支付，並降低該期間的現金流。即使沒有稅收時機優勢，經營現金流也超過淨收入 36%。

Next, I'll recap key areas on our balance sheet. Days sales outstanding of 26.3 days was favorable when compared to 2023 DSO of 26.8 days. Year-end accounts receivable of $315 million compares favorably by $28 million or 8% from prior year.

接下來，我將回顧我們資產負債表的關鍵領域。26.3 天的應收帳款週轉天數與 2023 年的 26.8 天的應收帳款週轉天數相比較為有利。年末應收帳款為 3.15 億美元，比上年增加 2,800 萬美元，增幅 8%。

Our inventory balance of $1.3 billion was $76 million less than the prior year balance of $1.4 billion. The 6% reduction exceeded sales changes as our efforts related to supply chain initiatives continue to add value. Days in inventory was [129], a decrease of six days from prior year.

我們的庫存餘額為 13 億美元，比去年同期的 14 億美元減少了 7,600 萬美元。由於我們在供應鏈計劃方面的努力不斷增加價值，6% 的降幅超過了銷售額的變化。庫存天數為 [129]，比前一年減少 6 天。

Total debt outstanding was reduced by $103 million, from $1.05 billion to $950 million. The debt reduction was funded by operating cash flows and was achieved even with over $59 million of capital purchases for new and existing locations, funding of our technology initiatives, acquisitions, a 9% increase in the quarterly dividend and $304 million in share repurchases. We finished the year with a leverage ratio of 1.4, slightly below our target leverage range of 1.5 to 2 times.

未償還債務總額減少了 1.03 億美元，從 10.5 億美元減少到 9.5 億美元。債務削減由經營現金流提供資金，儘管我們為新舊工廠採購了超過 5,900 萬美元的資本，為我們的技術計劃和收購提供了資金，季度股息增加了 9%，並且回購了 3.04 億美元，但仍實現了債務削減。我們今年的槓桿率為 1.4，略低於 1.5 至 2 倍的目標槓桿率範圍。

We completed total share repurchases of $304 million, including $144 million in the fourth quarter, contributing to a 2% reduction in weighted average shares outstanding compared to 2023 year-end. The total amount returned to shareholders for the full year including dividends and share repurchases was $483 million, second only to 2022.

我們完成了總計 3.04 億美元的股票回購，其中包括第四季的 1.44 億美元，與 2023 年底相比，加權平均流通股減少了 2%。全年返還給股東的金額（包括股利和股票回購）總計4.83億美元，僅次於2022年。

Despite a challenged business environment and pressured earnings, we have returned almost $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the past two years.

儘管經營環境充滿挑戰、獲利面臨壓力，但過去兩年我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了近 10 億美元。

Turning to our outlook for 2025. At this time, we are not anticipating a quick recovery in sales trends. From a macroeconomic standpoint, we are entering 2025 with higher than historical interest rates, possibilities of increased cost and continued inflation impacts on an unclear path for consumers to return to more normalized levels of discretionary spending in the pool and irrigation space.

展望 2025 年。目前，我們預期銷售趨勢不會快速恢復。從宏觀經濟角度來看，我們將在 2025 年面臨高於歷史利率、成本可能上升和持續通膨影響的情況下，為消費者在游泳池和灌溉領域恢復到更正常化的可自由支配支出水準提供指引。

As proven in 2024, our steady maintenance business will continue to benefit from new pools added during the prior year, even without a meaningful improvement in new construction and repair and remodel activities.

正如 2024 年所證明的那樣，即使新建、維修和改造活動沒有顯著改善，我們穩定的維護業務仍將繼續受益於前一年新增的泳池。

Pricing based on pool season updates from vendors across our product portfolio is expected to have a blended 1% to 2% benefit with some continued drag in first quarter for chemicals and commodities. Our sales outlook range for 2025 is flat to a low single-digit increase.

根據我們產品組合中的供應商提供的泳池季節更新，預計定價將產生 1% 至 2% 的混合收益，但化學品和大宗商品在第一季將繼續受到拖累。我們對 2025 年的銷售預期範圍是持平至低個位數成長。

As we do not have a significant amount of direct imports, we do not anticipate that the currently enacted additional tariffs from China will have a material impact on sales for 2025. The vast majority of our products are purchased domestically, however, may include some portion of goods that could see cost increases if further tariffs from Mexico or Canada were to be passed.

由於我們沒有大量的直接進口，我們預計中國目前實施的額外關稅不會對 2025 年的銷售產生重大影響。我們的絕大多數產品都是在國內購買的，但是，如果墨西哥或加拿大進一步徵收關稅，部分商品的成本可能會增加。

We will include any estimated impact of future tariffs in our guidance when we receive cost increases from our vendors and can reasonably estimate the potential effects. As we have historically, we would expect to pass these cost increases through as additional selling price.

當我們從供應商收到成本增加並能夠合理估計潛在影響時，我們將把未來關稅的任何預期影響納入我們的指導中。正如我們的過去做法一樣，我們希望將這些成本增加轉嫁為額外的銷售價格。

Our gross margin for 2025 is expected to be within the range of our 2024 gross margin and our long-term guidance target of 30%. On a comparative basis in 2025, contributions from our success in supply chain management, pricing and increased private label sales are expected to offset the positive import tax included in 2024.

我們預計 2025 年的毛利率將在 2024 年毛利率和 30% 的長期指引目標範圍內。與 2025 年相比，我們在供應鏈管理、定價和自有品牌銷售成長方面的成功預計將抵銷 2024 年包含的正進口稅。

Based on trends as we exited the year, we are not anticipating a significant increase in new pool construction and remodel activity, thus product mix is not expected to have a significant positive benefit to 2025 gross margin.

根據今年年底的趨勢，我們預計新泳池建設和改造活動不會大幅增加，因此產品組合預計不會對 2025 年的毛利率產生顯著的正面影響。

On the expense side, we continue to see higher-than-normal growth in wages and rent and other operating costs that the management team will continue to focus on to offset these cost increases with improved productivity.

在費用方面，我們繼續看到工資、租金和其他營運成本的成長高於正常水平，管理團隊將繼續專注於透過提高生產力來抵消這些成本的增加。

The stepped-up level of focused investment in technology will continue in 2025 at a similar level as 2024 and is considered a core part of our customer value creation efforts. We expect an incremental $10 million of costs associated with new sales and our expansion in 2025 as we continue to add to our distribution network.

2025 年，我們將持續增加對科技的重點投資，投資水準與 2024 年類似，這被視為我們為客戶創造價值工作的核心部分。隨著我們繼續擴大分銷網絡，我們預計 2025 年新銷售和擴張相關的成本將增加 1000 萬美元。

As we start to see market recovery in topline growth, we expect some incremental incentive-based compensation, where a low single-digit topline would result in around $15 million of incremental compensation expense.

隨著我們開始看到市場營收成長復甦，我們預計會出現一些增量激勵性薪酬，其中低個位數營收將導致約 1,500 萬美元的增量薪酬支出。

We expect that interest expense will range from [$40 million to $45 million] based on current rates and excluding any share repurchases. Interest expense is typically higher in quarters one and two as we build inventory to support the swimming pool season.

我們預計，以當前利率計算且不包括任何股票回購，利息支出將在 [4,000 萬美元至 4,500 萬美元] 之間。由於我們建立庫存來支持游泳池季節，第一季和第二季的利息支出通常較高。

The improvement from 2024 is primarily driven by lower expected average debt levels, estimated at current interest rates. We have included around $50 million to $55 million for our depreciation and amortization estimates.

2024 年以後的改善主要得益於目前利率估算的預期平均債務水準下降。我們在折舊和攤銷估算中納入了約 5,000 萬至 5,500 萬美元。

Capital allocation plans include use of cash of around 1% to 1.5% of net sales on capital reinvestments into the business, including new sales center openings. We plan for between $25 million to $50 million on acquisitions. Once approved, our dividends will utilize cash of around $200 million. As we would expect to continue to repurchase shares opportunistically.

資本配置計畫包括使用淨銷售額的約 1% 至 1.5% 的現金進行業務資本再投資，包括開設新的銷售中心。我們計劃投入250​​0萬至5000萬美元進行收購。一旦獲得批准，我們的股息將使用約 2 億美元現金。正如我們預期的那樣，我們會繼續適時回購股票。

Cash flow in 2025 is expected to be between 90% and 100% of net income and will be impacted by the $68.5 million deferred tax payment made in the first quarter of 2025 related to 2024. Our annual tax rate is estimated to be approximately 25% excluding ASU. This rate typically runs closer to 25.5% during quarters one, two and four and lower in Q3.

2025 年的現金流量預計在淨收入的 90% 至 100% 之間，並將受到 2025 年第一季與 2024 年相關的 6,850 萬美元遞延稅款的影響。不包括 ASU，我們的年度稅率估計約為 25%。該比率在第一、第二和第四季通常接近 25.5%，在第三季則較低。

We are projecting an [8%] benefit from ASU in the first quarter for the expected impact of restricted share vesting and stock options expiring in 2025. We expect approximately 38 million weighted average shares of outstanding that will be applied to net income attributable to common shareholders at the end of the first quarter and 38.1 million shares for the remaining quarters before consideration of any additional share buyback.

我們預計，受限制性股票歸屬和股票選擇權於 2025 年到期的影響，ASU 第一季的收益將為 [8%]。我們預計，第一季末的加權平均流通股數約為 3,800 萬股，將計入普通股股東的淨利潤；在考慮任何額外股票回購之前，剩餘幾季的加權平均流通股數為 3,810 萬股。

Our guidance for 2025 is our diluted EPS range of $11.08 to $11.58, including an estimated $0.08 ASU tax benefit. From an operational standpoint, excluding the benefit of the $12.6 million import tax on the 2024 results, the improved earnings at the midpoint would be around 4%.

我們對 2025 年的預期是稀釋每股收益範圍為 11.08 美元至 11.58 美元，其中包括預計 0.08 美元的 ASU 稅收優惠。從營運角度來看，不包括2024年業績中1,260萬美元的進口稅收益，中期收益改善幅度將在4%左右。

First quarter 2025 will include one less selling day than prior year for a total of one less selling day for full year 2025 compared to 2024. From a seasonality standpoint, with Easter falling later in the year, this typically would shift pool openings from first quarter to second quarter in some markets.

2025 年第一季的銷售日將比前一年減少一天，因此 2025 年全年的銷售日總數將比 2024 年減少一天。從季節性的角度來看，由於復活節在每年晚些時候，這通常會導致某些市場的泳池開放時間從第一季轉移到第二季。

Last year, first quarter included the $12.6 million of benefit to gross margin related to import taxes. This will provide a negative comparison for 2025 as we would expect a normal seasonal gross margin for Q1.

去年第一季的毛利率中包含了與進口稅相關的1,260萬美元收益。這將為 2025 年帶來負面比較，因為我們預計第一季的季節性毛利率正常。

As we look forward to the 2025 season, our team is prepared to capitalize on the stable maintenance portion of our business, continue to capture incremental market share and adjust the business and economic changes that will position us to outperform the market.

展望 2025 年賽季，我們的團隊準備好利用業務的穩定維護部分，繼續佔領增量市場份額，並調整業務和經濟變化，使我們能夠超越市場。

When new construction and remodel activity return to more normalized historical levels, we will be ready as we have made the investments necessary to continue to grow faster than the overall market.

當新建和改建活動恢復到更正常的歷史水平時，我們將做好準備，因為我們已經進行了必要的投資，以繼續以比整體市場更快的速度成長。

I appreciate all of you participating in today's call. We will now open the line for questions.

我感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們現在將開放問答熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）高盛的 Susan Maklari。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Pete, I want to talk a bit about the POOL360 initiatives and some of the momentum you're seeing there. Can you talk about how that will contribute to your outlook for sales to be flat to approximately up this year?

謝謝。大家早安。皮特，我想談談 POOL360 計劃以及您在那裡看到的一些發展勢頭。您能否談談這將如何促使您預期今年的銷售量將持平至約上升？

And then I think Melanie mentioned in her comments that you expect spend on those investments about flat year-over-year, but anything notable within that we should be aware of in terms of some of the key initiatives and how they're coming through?

然後我認為梅蘭妮在她的評論中提到，您預計這些投資的支出與去年同期持平，但就一些關鍵舉措及其進展而言，我們應該注意哪些值得注意的事情？

Yeah. We're very pleased with the traction that we're seeing on POOL360. And remember, the ecosystem has many parts. So in our comments, we mentioned that at this point, we are considering new construction to be kind of flattish. I don't really -- it's very early to tell where new construction will end up. But right now, we're assuming flattish.

是的。我們對 POOL360 所取得的進展感到非常滿意。請記住，生態系統由許多部分組成。因此，我們在評論中提到，目前，我們正在考慮將新建築建造得比較平坦。我不太清楚——現在判斷新建築最終會建到哪裡還為時過早。但現在，我們假設其持平。

So we lean into the maintenance portion of our business. And the maintenance portion of our business, our private label chemicals play a large role in that. So as we mentioned, one of the measures of the effectiveness of POOL360 is what's happening to our private label chemical sales, and you can see that they've increased quite a bit.

因此我們傾向於業務的維護部分。在我們的業務的維護部分，我們的自有品牌化學品在其中發揮了重要作用。正如我們所提到的，衡量 POOL360 有效性的標準之一就是我們的自有品牌化學品銷售情況，您可以看到它們的銷售量增加了不少。

So what we think is that the tools prescribe our proprietary chemicals and that regardless of the construction and remodel and renovation environment, we think that's going to continue to pay dividends. Now, that's a function of the number of pools in the ground and largely weather will determine the length of the swimming pool season.

因此，我們認為這些工具規定了我們的專有化學品，無論建築、改造和翻新環境如何，我們都認為這將繼續帶來回報。現在，這取決於地面上的游泳池數量，並且很大程度上天氣將決定游泳池開放季節的長度。

So what we think is that it provides a very effective way for the consumers either with our new app or using the POOL360 water test at our dealer stores using the proprietary software that we have at the stores, or the new POOL360 service which we think will drive efficiency of the maintenance companies that are running the software, which allows them to run their business.

因此，我們認為，它為消費者提供了一種非常有效的方式，無論是使用我們的新應用程序，還是在我們的經銷商店使用我們在商店擁有的專有軟體進行 POOL360 水質測試，或者使用新的 POOL360 服務，我們認為這將提高運行該軟體的維護公司的效率，使他們能夠開展業務。

So overall, we think it makes them more efficient. We think it makes them stickier to us in terms of customer base. And we think it drives sales of the proprietary products because it only recommends our products, not anybody else's.

所以總的來說，我們認為這會提高它們的效率。我們認為，從客戶群角度而言，這會讓他們對我們更加忠誠。我們認為它推動了專有產品的銷售，因為它只推薦我們的產品，而不是任何其他人的產品。

Right. That's great color. Thank you. And then maybe shifting to Pinch A Penny. Given the macro backdrop and all the pressures of the consumer continues to be under, are you seeing that there's growth on the DIY side of the business at all or any shift in that? And what that means for Pinch A Penny, their ability to gain share and the implications for the margins as a result of that?

正確的。顏色真棒。謝謝。然後也許會轉向 Pinch A Penny。考慮到宏觀背景和消費者持續承受的所有壓力，您是否認為 DIY 業務方面有所成長或發生任何轉變？這對 Pinch A Penny 來說意味著什麼？

Yeah. Maybe ironically, there hasn't been a big shift of people turning away from professional service companies to DIY. Every year, a certain amount of customers will flip flop back and forth. Some people say, well, I can do this and then they try and take it over themselves. If they do it with -- if they're uninformed about how to do it and they don't use, like some of the apps that we have, it can be problematic.

是的。或許諷刺的是，人們從專業服務公司轉向 DIY 的趨勢並沒有太大變化。每年都有一定數量的客戶會改變主意。有些人說，好吧，我可以做到，然後他們就試著自己去做。如果他們不知道如何做，也不使用我們的某些應用程序，那麼就會出現問題。

So overall, I would say not a lot of shifting back and forth between do-it-for-me and DIY. I mean the value proposition that any retail store has is providing a great customer experience. Pinch A Penny provides a great customer experience. They're owner-operated just like our independent stores, which tend to provide the best overall customer experience.

所以總的來說，我認為在“幫我做”和“自己動手”之間不需要進行太多的來回轉換。我的意思是任何零售店的價值主張都是提供良好的客戶體驗。Pinch A Penny 提供了出色的客戶體驗。它們就像我們的獨立商店一樣由業主經營，往往能夠提供最佳的整體客戶體驗。

So they make it easy for the customers to shop. They're effectively located in the right area where the swimming pools are. They're fully stocked. They have the software and technology, which ensures that the consumer should have the most trouble-free pool. But overall, the growth in Pinch A Penny and a well-run independent retail store has to do with the overall customer experience that they provide.

因此他們讓顧客可以輕鬆購物。它們恰好位於游泳池所在的正確區域。他們庫存充足。他們擁有軟體和技術，確保消費者擁有最無憂的游泳池。但總體而言，Pinch A Penny 和營運良好的獨立零售店的成長與他們提供的整體客戶體驗有關。

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞安·默克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

Hey. Good morning. Thanks for the questions and congrats on the strong finish of the year. I had a couple of questions on guidance. So I think, Pete, I was a little surprised to see the outlook for new construction units flattish.

嘿。早安.感謝您的提問，並祝賀您今年取得了圓滿的成績。我有幾個關於指導的問題。因此，皮特，我認為，我對新建築單位的前景持平感到有點驚訝。

And we've got the high interest rate environment. And I believe the pool permits are still down a good bit. Just talk about why you think flattish is the right out outlook, and then is it more second half weighted? Should it still be down in the first half?

我們處於高利率環境。我相信游泳池許可證數量仍大幅下降。請談談為什麼您認為持平是正確的前景，那麼下半年是否會更重要？上半年應該還會下滑嗎？

Yeah. I think that's right, Ryan. Our dealers that we've spoken to earlier in the year, you know it's show season. And so, we interact with a lot of dealers in the first eight weeks of the year. And what I would tell you is that their reporting activity is good.

是的。我認為那是對的，瑞安。我們今年早些時候與之交談過的經銷商，你們知道現在是展覽季節。因此，我們在今年的前八週與許多經銷商進行了互動。我想告訴你的是，他們的報道活動很好。

Now certainly in the Northeast, which is a very small portion of the market this time of year, they got winter. Now last year, their winter came later in the first quarter and was pretty good in the beginning of the quarter this year. It's cold and snowy everywhere. I mean how we get snow in Louisiana.

現在，在東北地區，這個地區只佔每年市場的一小部分，他們已經進入了冬季。去年他們的冬季來得較晚，在第一季度，而今年第一季初的情況相當不錯。到處寒冷多雪。我的意思是路易斯安那州是如何下雪的。

So I think you're right. The sentiment that we're getting from the dealers is that they think that it's not going to get any worse, but I do think you're right, it feels to me like the general sense of the economy is that it's probably going to be better in the second half than in the first half.

所以我認為你是對的。我們從經銷商那裡得到的感覺是，他們認為情況不會變得更糟，但我確實認為你是對的，我覺得經濟的總體情況是下半年可能會比上半年更好。

Okay. Got it. And then on gross margin, that was also a surprise for me. You're guiding it flat to up. Can you just talk about how you're achieving that because I think product mix will be a negative, and then you've got the accounting headwind. So what are the offsets to those items?

好的。知道了。就毛利率而言，這也令我感到驚訝。您正在引導它從平到上。你能不能談談你是如何實現這一目標的，因為我認為產品組合會產生負面影響，而且你還會面臨會計方面的阻力。那麼這些項目的抵銷額是多少呢？

Yeah. I mean the offsets are the specific actions that we're working on. So we have several things on the supply chain side that we continue to develop and put in place in 2024 that we see some future benefits coming into 2025.

是的。我的意思是抵消是我們正在努力採取的具體行動。因此，我們在供應鏈方面有幾件事要做，我們將在 2024 年繼續開發和實施，預計到 2025 年將帶來一些未來的好處。

And then, as Pete mentioned, we rolled out several new categories of private label product. And so, that we did that at both our sales conference internally as well as the trade shows that we've been attending early in the year. And so, it's going to be focused on really supply chain. It's going to be increase in private label and then the continued efforts that we're making on the pricing side as well.

然後，正如皮特所提到的，我們推出了幾類新的自有品牌產品。因此，我們在內部銷售會議以及年初參加的貿易展會上都這樣做了。因此，它將真正專注於供應鏈。自有品牌將會增多，我們也會在定價方面繼續努力。

Scott Schneeberger, Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的斯科特·施內伯格。

Thanks very much. Could you -- probably Melanie for you, go back over the competitive pressures that you touched upon and also customer mix? And how you're thinking about both of those entering the year and over the course of the year? Thanks.

非常感謝。您能否（可能是梅蘭妮）重新回顧您提到的競爭壓力以及客戶結構？您如何看待今年以及全年的情況？謝謝。

Yeah. So as we've seen kind of throughout the year and really kind of starting in 2021 with the growth in the swimming pool industry, we have seen private equity entered the market in across the different avenues into the industry overall. And so, one of the things that we've seen is some growth in our national accounts where we have seen some consolidations there.

是的。因此，正如我們全年所看到的那樣，尤其是從 2021 年開始，隨著游泳池產業的成長，我們看到私募股權透過不同的途徑進入整個產業。因此，我們看到的事情之一是我們的國民帳戶有所增長，並且出現了一些整合。

And so, what we've seen there is those customers are able to capture a larger share of the market overall because they have better reputations within their individual markets. And so, that's really allowed us to focus from a national standpoint on serving those customers. And one of the avenues that we see as further improvement in our market share because we are better able to serve those customers.

因此，我們看到這些客戶能夠佔據更大的市場份額，因為他們在各自的市場中享有更好的聲譽。因此，這確實使我們能夠從國家角度集中精力為這些客戶提供服務。我們認為進一步提高市場份額的途徑之一是，因為我們能夠更好地服務這些客戶。

Thanks very much. And Peter, for you, just specifically on remodel, what are you hearing as far as what your customers are saying about the homeowner? What's implied in -- is your assumption for interest rates and how you thought about the guidance for that?

非常感謝。彼得，就您而言，具體關於改造，就您的客戶對房主的評價而言，您聽到了什麼？這其中隱含著什麼—您對利率的假設是什麼？

And just anecdotally, what you're hearing there? What you think the behavior will be from the homeowners this year, given where we are in the housing market? Thanks

只是傳聞一下，您聽到了什麼？考慮到目前的房地產市場狀況，您認為今年房主的行為會是什麼樣的？謝謝

Sure. I would tell you, you have to bifurcate the market, so to speak, when it comes to renovation and remodel because it really depends on the customer type. So if you have a cash customer, then the pool is ready to remodel, and they go out and engage a contractor and they make it happen.

當然。我想告訴你，當談到裝修和改造時，你必須將市場分成兩類，因為這實際上取決於客戶類型。因此，如果您有現金客戶，那麼游泳池就可以改造了，他們會出去聘請承包商並完成改造。

Once that have a significant portion of financing, just remember we talked about remodels on previous calls. You know that remodels have also come up in price quite a bit too. So a new equipment pad could be $14,000, $15,000, a pool finish could be -- for a small pool, $9,000, $10,000. Tile, a couple of thousand dollars. And decking, it really depends on the size of the decking.

一旦獲得了相當一部分融資，請記住我們在之前的電話中討論過改造。您知道，改造的價格也漲了不少。因此，新的設備墊可能需要 14,000 美元或 15,000 美元，而建造小型游泳池可能需要 9,000 美元或 10,000 美元。瓷磚，幾千美元。至於裝飾，這實際上取決於裝飾的尺寸。

So many remodel projects could get pretty large. And when that happens, more and more consumers will seek to finance part of that. So in the current interest rate environment, but for somebody that has to do a remodel because repairs aren't getting it done anymore, meaning the finish is beyond its useful life, and that's where somebody will say, okay, I may not want to do it, but I have to do it because to preserve the asset, so to speak.

許多改造項目可能會變得相當大。當這種情況發生時，越來越多的消費者將尋求為部分支出提供資金。因此，在當前的利率環境下，但對於某些人來說，由於維修不再能完成而必須進行改造，這意味著改造已經超出了其使用壽命，這時有人會說，好吧，我可能不想這樣做，但我必須這樣做，因為可以這麼說，為了保住資產。

So I think that cash fires that market is okay, was okay -- is okay, similar to the cash buyer for new pool construction. What I will say, and I mentioned in my comments is I believe that once interest rates come down, I would expect to see renovation and remodel be a source of growth for our dealer base.

所以我認為，現金火力對市場來說是好的，是好的——是好的，類似新泳池建設的現金買家。我要說的是，並且我在我的評論中提到過，我相信一旦利率下降，我預計翻新和改造將成為我們經銷商基礎的成長源。

Because I believe that in the last couple of years with elevated rates, people that probably should have remodeled have delayed that. And remember, we consider renovation and remodel to be semi-discretionary. Meaning I should do it, but I don't really have to do it this year. Perhaps I can forestall it for a year or two, but eventually, it will have to get done.

因為我相信，在過去幾年裡，隨著利率上升，那些應該進行改造的人可能已經推遲了這項計畫。請記住，我們認為翻新和改造是半自由裁量的。意思是我應該這樣做，但今年實際上不必這樣做。也許我可以推遲一兩年，但最終它必須完成。

So I think that as we move forward, given the installed base continues to age every year regardless of interest rates, I think this will be an area that we'll lean into for growth.

因此我認為，隨著我們繼續前進，考慮到無論利率如何，安裝基數每年都在老化，我認為這將成為我們成長的重點領域。

David Manthey, Baird.

大衛曼蒂，貝爾德。

Thank you. Good morning, all. First question is on the weather. How are you thinking about the weather in 2024 as a comp for 2025 overall? Because precipitation throughout the season was pretty normal, but the temperatures in April, May and June were pretty much record mild levels.

謝謝。大家早安。第一個問題是關於天氣的。您如何看待 2024 年的天氣狀況與 ​​2025 年的整體狀況？因為整個季節的降水都相當正常，但四月、五月和六月的氣溫幾乎創下了溫和的紀錄。

And I understand there wasn't a capacity situation for new construction and R&R in '24, but wouldn't a good weather season be generally a positive for both the green and all three areas of the blue business, all else equal?

而我了解 24 年新建築和 R&R 的容量情況並不理想，但是在其它條件相同的情況下，好天氣季節對綠色業務和藍色業務的所有三個領域通常不是都具有積極意義嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. So a little bit tougher comp in '25, but that's incorporated into your guidance?

好的。所以 25 年的比賽會更激烈一些，但這也已經納入你的指導範圍了嗎？

Yeah. I mean you know we've been covering us for a long time, weather is in this business, especially early in the year has some pretty wild swings. Once we get into the season, generally, it's pretty normal. Weather affects us much more on the shoulders of the year.

是的。我的意思是，你知道我們已經報導了很長一段時間，天氣是這個行業中的重要因素，特別是在年初，天氣會出現一些相當劇烈的波動。一旦我們進入賽季，一般來說，一切都很正常。一年之中，天氣對我們的影響更大。

Okay. And then maybe you could recalibrate us on your strategic thoughts around Horizon. I mean, looking out 5 to 10 years, what does the green business look like? Are you just looking to get deeper in the Sunbelt? Are you looking to expand nationally? And then secondarily, where does Horizon fit in the range of capital allocation priorities that you have as a company?

好的。然後也許您可以重新調整我們有關 Horizo​​n 的戰略思想。我的意思是，展望5到10年，綠色業務會是什麼樣子？您只是想深入陽光地帶嗎？您是否希望在全國擴張？其次，在你們公司的資本配置優先範圍中，Horizo​​n 處於什麼位置？

Great question. So Horizon is a business that is much more heavily dependent on new construction, new home construction specifically than the rest of our business. So we all know that new home construction has been underbuilt for many years and that there is a housing shortage.

好問題。因此，與我們的其他業務相比，Horizo​​n 的業務更加依賴新建築，特別是新住宅建設。所以我們都知道，多年來新房建設一直不足，有住房短缺的情況。

So I think from a cyclical perspective, Horizon is in a spot right now that there is a net need for new homes. I think the interest rate and housing market overall has that locked up a bit. But given that the population continues to grow, and I believe that the long-term outlook on rates is they will come down and the housing market should unlock. I think that business will thrive in that type of environment.

因此，我認為從週期性角度來看，Horizo​​​​n 目前處於對新房屋淨需求的狀態。我認為利率和房地產市場總體已經有所鎖定。但考慮到人口持續成長，我相信利率的長期前景將會下降，房地產市場也將解鎖。我認為在這樣的環境下生意將會興隆。

The environment we're in today, frankly, because as I mentioned in my comments, the commercial business and Horizon is in better shape than residential. So from a capital allocation perspective, we're not opening a ton of branches. We are protecting our competitive position in markets where we need to expand and or we may need some capacity, but we remain focused largely on the Sunbelt.

坦白說，正如我在評論中提到的那樣，我們今天所處的環境比住宅環境更好。因此，從資本配置的角度來看，我們不會開設大量的分公司。我們正在需要擴張或可能需要一些產能的市場來保護我們的競爭地位，但我們仍然主要關注陽光地帶。

I don't really want to have at this point business outside of the Sunbelt for horizon. It doesn't take a lot of capital to run that business. And given that our footprint, our competitive footprint in most of the key markets is pretty good. We don't need to put a bunch of capital into new locations.

我現在真的不想在陽光地帶以外的地方開展業務。經營這項業務不需要很多資金。考慮到我們的足跡，我們在大多數主要市場的競爭足跡都相當不錯。我們不需要在新地點投入大量資金。

Now if the market -- the new home construction market takes off in the future years, then yes, we may add to the footprint. But largely, I don't see the new home construction market taking off outside of the Sunbelt. I think the best chance is to see a growth in that would be in Sunbelt and we would follow.

現在，如果市場——未來幾年新房建設市場開始起飛，那麼我們可能會擴大足跡。但總體而言，我並不認為陽光地帶以外的新房建設市場會蓬勃發展。我認為最好的機會是看到陽光地帶出現成長，我們也會緊跟著。

Andrew Carter, Stifel.

安德魯卡特（Stifel）。

Hey, thank you. Good morning. Just first wanted to ask about kind of the commodity pressures. You did say, just to be clear, you lumped in chemicals, plus PVC, but any building materials. Can you kind of level set where you've taken steps downs in terms of the chemical pricing?

嘿，謝謝你。早安.首先我想問一下有關商品壓力的問題。您確實說過，為了說清楚，您把化學品、PVC 以及任何建築材料都放在一起了。您能否就化學品定價方面採取哪些降價措施？

Have you seen anything incremental? Obviously, there's obvious bonus SRS out there under Home Depot's ownership right now. Leslie is actually just talking about getting more sharp on price points. So just level set where we are and what's kind of considered in the guidance right now?

您有看到任何增量嗎？顯然，目前 Home Depot 旗下有明顯的額外 SRS。萊斯利實際上只是在談論如何更加敏銳地掌握價格點。那麼，我們目前所處的水平以及指導中考慮了哪些方面？

Yeah. So right now in the guidance, we do expect to see some continued pressure on both chemicals and PVC and to a lesser extent the building materials. So I do think that building materials may have worked its way out primarily through 2024.

是的。因此，在目前的指導中，我們確實預期化學品和 PVC 將繼續面臨壓力，而建築材料將受到較小程度的壓力。因此我確實認為建築材料市場可能主要在 2024 年之前復甦。

On the chemical side, we exited our selling pricing in first quarter or a little bit less than where they were at the end of 2024, but comparatively different from where they were first quarter. So we're definitely going to have that impact in first quarter year over year.

在化學品方面，我們在第一季退出了銷售定價，或者說比 2024 年底的水平略低，但與第一季的水平相比有所不同。因此，我們第一季的業績肯定會比去年同期產生影響。

As is typical in first quarter, we do see from a competitive standpoint offers out in the market of lower selling prices to try to generate cash for those that need to turn inventory into cash and to get people to come in the door in the first quarter.

正如第一季的典型情況一樣，從競爭的角度看，我們確實看到市場上出現了較低銷售價格的報價，以試圖為那些需要將庫存轉化為現金的人創造現金，並吸引人們在第一季度進店。

It's not much different that we're seeing this year first quarter than we saw last year. And really, by the time the season hit that kind of normalized because people weren't leading with pricing on those chemicals anymore. So that would be a similar assumption to what we would look for the rest of '25 as it relates to that.

今年第一季的情況與去年沒有太大差別。事實上，到了季節到來時，這種情況就恢復正常了，因為人們不再主導這些化學物質的定價。因此，這與我們對 25 年剩餘時間的預測類似。

PVC piping, that one is continued under pressure. It was down year-over-year 20% to 25% for the full year. Still down some -- not a significant part of our business overall, but we're not seeing any recovery in that at this point. So this could be a slight impact on deflation for the rest of the year.

PVC管道，在壓力下繼續運作。全年年減 20% 至 25%。仍然有所下降——雖然這占我們業務整體的比例不大，但目前我們還沒有看到任何復甦跡象。因此這可能會對今年剩餘時間的通貨緊縮產生輕微影響。

There's a certain question -- you're talking about like the flat new construction for the full year. And I think you said at a certain point that's predicated on pressure on the entry levels not coming back. I guess there's a second -- there's a positive to that, which is the increased content rich, feature rich that mix tailwind. Your building materials were down 11% last year. New construction was down 15%.

有一個問題——你談論的是全年新屋開建情況。而且我認為您說過，在某個時候，這是基於入門級壓力不會回來。我想還有第二點──這有正面的一面，那就是增加了內容的豐富性，增加了功能，帶來了順風。去年你們的建築材料價格下降了 11%。新屋開建量下降了 15%。

Do you see that providing a healthy benefit? Is that in your guide? Is that upside to the guide have continued? And have you seen any of that go back, i.e., like any of the pools that are being built by the higher end, are there any sacrifices or is just as, okay, if I have the money to build a pool, I want to build a pool and I'm going to build what I want? Thanks.

您認為這會帶來健康益處嗎？這在你的指南裡嗎？該指南的上行趨勢是否還會持續？你有沒有看到任何這樣的情況，例如，像任何由高端人士建造的游泳池，是否有任何犧牲，或者只是，好吧，如果我有錢建造一個游泳池，我想建造一個游泳池，我會建造我想要的？謝謝。

Yeah. I think that's generally right, Andrew. If you have the money to build a pool, you want a pool. You're more than likely to put in the available technology today. You're not going try and go back to an older platform. And quite frankly, most of the builders wouldn't do that anyway. So as far as the overall price of the pool, I think it's being skewed by a couple of things. One is content and two is just the type of tools that are being built.

是的。我認為大體上這是正確的，安德魯。如果您有錢建造游泳池，您就會想要一個游泳池。您很可能會採用當今可用的技術。您不會嘗試返回舊平台。坦白說，大多數建築商無論如何都不會這麼做。因此，就游泳池的整體價格而言，我認為它受到一些因素的影響。一是內容，二是正在建構的工具類型。

I think we're seeing more and more -- or continuation, I should say. Continuation of the number of pools being built on average being the larger more feature laid in pools than entry level. I think there's healthy demand for entry level. We expect it to turn at some point.

我認為，我們看到了越來越多——或者應該說是持續的。正在建造的游泳池數量平均持續增加，且比入門級游泳池更大、功能更多。我認為對於入門級產品有健康的需求。我們預計它會在某個時候轉變。

And quite frankly, that's why we've been continuing to invest in our business because we realize it's a cycle, and we don't want to be -- when the cycle turns, we continue to gain share. And when the cycle turns, then essentially, that's when we're going to get paid back for these investments in new locations and other investments that we've made in our customer experience.

坦白說，這就是我們一直繼續投資於我們的業務的原因，因為我們意識到這是一個週期，我們不想這樣做——當週期轉變時，我們繼續獲得份額。當週期轉變時，從本質上講，我們將獲得對新地點的投資以及為客戶體驗所做的其他投資的回報。

Trey Grooms, Stephens.

特雷格魯姆斯、史蒂芬斯。

Good morning, everyone. So just real quick, Melanie, on the operating expenses. You went through several puts and takes around that. And clearly, there's several moving pieces this year. Could you talk about maybe the timing of some of these factors?

大家早安。梅蘭妮，請簡單談談營運費用。您經歷了幾次這樣的困難和挫折。顯然，今年有幾件事是變動的。您能否談談其中一些因素的發生時間？

Or maybe how we should think about the cadence of operating expense as we move through the year? And sorry, if I missed any details on that. I broke out or my call disconnected for just a second.

或者我們該如何思考一年中營運費用的節奏？如果我遺漏了任何細節，請見諒。我逃跑了或我的電話斷了僅僅一秒鐘。

Yeah. No. I appreciate the question. So the two areas that we are investing in specifically for 2025. One is going to be the addition of a similar number of new sales centers and that we expect to spend about $10 million. So we will see the majority of that come through before season.

是的。不。我很感謝你提出這個問題。因此，我們將專門為 2025 年投資這兩個領域。一是將增加類似數量的新銷售中心，預計花費約 1,000 萬美元。因此，我們將在賽季開始前看到大部分結果。

We are fairly far along in opening up a little over half of that before season or before April, May. So you'll see that kind of heavily weighted to first quarter, second quarter. And then the rest of it will fall into the fourth quarter. We typically don't open up anything in the middle of the season. So that's how I would split those expenses.

在旺季來臨之前或 4 月、5 月之前，我們已經開放了一半以上的土地。因此，你會看到第一季和第二季的權重很大。其餘部分將進入第四季。我們通常不會在賽季中期開放任何東西。這就是我分攤這些費用的方法。

And then on the incentive comp side, that we actually record in proportion to our operating income when we earn it. So it would have a similar seasonal spread to our overall operating income.

然後在激勵補償方面，我們實際上是按照我們賺取的營業收入的比例來記錄的。因此，它的季節性差異與我們的整體營業收入相似。

Got it. Okay. And then maybe I guess this could also lend it up to the similar question on timing. But you had mentioned some rebuild demand in Florida from hurricanes expected. Have those come through yet? Or how are you thinking about the timing there?

知道了。好的。那麼也許我猜這也可能引出關於時間的類似問題。但您曾提到，佛羅裡達州預計將因颶風而出現一些重建需求。這些都已經實現了嗎？或者您如何考慮那裡的時間安排？

And then also with back half expectation for maybe a leveling or maybe even a little improvement in the new side and R&R, should that impact the normal seasonality that we typically see?

然後，對於新方面和 R&R 可能持平甚至略有改善的預期，這會影響我們通常看到的正常季節性嗎？

Yeah. Related to Florida, what I would say is there's still areas in Florida that need a significant amount of work that we're still -- when the homes aren't rebuilt, then they're not going to rebuild the pools, right? So any place where the home was still habitable than those pools were as quickly as possible, put back online so that people can use them.

是的。關於佛羅裡達州，我想說的是，佛羅裡達州仍然有一些地區需要大量工作，我們仍然——如果房屋不重建，那麼他們就不會重建游泳池，對嗎？因此，任何仍適合居住的地方都會盡快恢復這些游泳池的開放，以便人們可以使用。

There's still a fair amount of pools and homes in Florida, which are uninhabitable. And those pools will be future work for us once the homes get fixed or rebuilt. There's a lot of those homes that are going to have to be raised and rebuilt versus just repaired given the elevations of when those homes are originally built.

佛羅裡達州仍有相當數量的游泳池和房屋無法居住。一旦房屋修繕或重建，這些游泳池就將成為我們未來的工作。考慮到這些房屋最初建造時的高度，許多房屋都必須被抬高並重建，而不是僅僅進行修復。

So that for us is just going to continue to be future work. It will grow as people continue to move to Florida and the homes that were damaged get rebuilt.

所以對我們來說這只是將繼續進行未來的工作。隨著人們不斷遷入佛羅裡達州以及受損房屋的重建，這一數字也將擴大。

As far as your question on the second half versus first half of the year, I would say that certainly, I believe the second half, our current thinking is that the first half new construction -- I mean, we say overall flattish. I think that the first half is going to be weaker than the second half.

至於你關於下半年與上半年相比的問題，我會說當然，我相信下半年，我們目前的想法是，上半年的新開工——我的意思是，我們說總體持平。我認為上半年將會比下半年弱。

We're anticipating that the second half will be a little bit stronger. It's very early in the season, very tough to predict right now given the amount of uncertainty that there still is in the economy. But based on the level of optimism that we sent with the dealers, that's currently what we are thinking.

我們預計下半年會更加強勁。現在還處於季節初期，由於經濟中仍存在許多不確定性，現在很難預測。但根據我們向經銷商傳達的樂觀程度，我們目前就是這麼想的。

When I consider our first half or first quarter of the year, and I look at the weather patterns -- as I said, last year, weather in the beginning of the quarter -- beginning of the year was actually very good for the first quarter.

當我考慮今年上半年或第一季時，我會觀察天氣模式——正如我所說，去年第一季初的天氣——年初的第一季實際上非常好。

And then the end of the first quarter, winter came and stuck around for a few weeks into the beginning of the second quarter. We don't know where we're going to end this year as far as first quarter weather, but it looks like we're getting a real winter up north. But fortunately for us, this is not the most seasonally significant time of year.

第一季結束後，冬季來臨，並持續了第二季初的幾個星期。就第一季的天氣而言，我們不知道今年結束時天氣會如何，但看起來北方將迎來真正的冬天。但對我們來說幸運的是，這並不是一年中季節變化最為顯著的時刻。

Garik Shmois, Loop Capital Markets.

Garik Shmois，Loop Capital Markets。

Hi. Thank you. The $25 million to $50 million you're budgeting for M&A. I was wondering if you could talk to some of the opportunities that you're looking at?

你好。謝謝。您為併購預算了 2500 萬到 5000 萬美元。我想知道您是否可以談談您正在尋找的一些機會？

Yeah. I think at this point, it's really in the same area that we continue to invest in. I think there's some opportunity for continued consolidation, albeit not nearly as much as there was, say, five or six years ago. So we have an M&A deck that we continue to work and have conversations with people, but I wouldn't expect at this point anything out of the ordinary.

是的。我認為目前為止，這確實與我們繼續投資的領域相同。我認為仍有繼續整合的機會，儘管不像五、六年前那麼多。因此，我們有一個併購平台，我們會繼續進行工作並與人們進行對話，但我目前預計不會出現任何異常。

Okay. And then I was hoping you could speak to labor availability on the new construction side. We start to see growth whether it's in the second half of this year maybe in 2026. What are you hearing from contractors given the administration's new policies on immigration, and if there's any initial view on availability and being able to get to future growth?

好的。然後我希望你能談談新建築方面的勞動力供應。我們開始看到成長，無論是在今年下半年，還是在 2026 年。鑑於政府的新移民政策，您從承包商那裡聽到了什麼消息？

Yeah. That's a question we've gotten a few times. And I would tell you that I think in general, things are okay. Because if you look at what the administration is targeting, they're targeting the more recent migrants, if you will. But if I go back to before this started, the elevated migration of people that are trying to reverse now, mean we built 120,000 pools and new home construction was stronger then.

是的。我們已經多次被問到這個問題。我想告訴你們，我認為整體來說，事情還好。因為如果你看看政府的目標，你會發現他們的目標是最近的移民。但如果我回到這一切開始之前，現在試圖扭轉的人口遷移速度加快，這意味著我們建造了 12 萬個游泳池，當時新房建設也更加強勁。

So there was plenty of people back four or five years ago to build more pools and build more homes. And my assumption is that those folks are still here and are not the target of any of the administration policies. So by and large, we're not hearing from any of our builders that their labor pool has changed significantly.

因此四、五年前就有很多人在這裡建造更多的游泳池和房子。我的假設是，這些人仍然在這裡，並且不是任何政府政策的目標。因此，總的來說，我們沒有從任何建築商那裡聽說他們的勞動力資源發生了重大變化。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的薩姆·里德。

Awesome. Thanks so much. Peter, I really appreciate all the high-level color you gave on your outlook beyond 2025. That said, could we drill down in terms of what needs to happen for you to get back to your algorithm, especially that 6% to 9% level on the topline?

驚人的。非常感謝。彼得，我非常欣賞你對 2025 年以後前景的宏觀展望。話雖如此，我們能否深入研究您需要做些什麼才能回到您的演算法，尤其是營收的 6% 到 9% 的水平？

I guess what I'm getting at is, is 6% to 9% achievable absent lower rates? Or if not, let's say, we see this rate environment persist in perpetuity here. Would 2025 be a good approximation in terms of how the business will trend?

我想說的是，如果沒有降低利率，能達到 6% 至 9% 的成長嗎？或者如果不是，那麼我們認為這種利率環境將永遠持續下去。就業務趨勢而言，2025 年是否是一個很好的近似值？

Thanks for the question. I would tell you that in order for us to get back to the long-term growth algorithm, 6% to 9%, then we need the housing market to loosen up and we need rates to come down. If rates don't move and people's access to capital form there, home equity remains very expensive, I think if you call that the new normal, I guess, I'd have to view that in a couple of different stages.

謝謝你的提問。我想告訴你，為了讓我們回到 6% 到 9% 的長期成長演算法，我們需要放鬆房地產市場，我們需要降低利率。如果利率不變並且人們無法獲得資本，那麼房屋淨值仍然會非常昂貴，我想如果你稱之為新常態，我想，我必須從幾個不同的階段來看待它。

If it's normal now and then you have -- and it stays flat for several years where it becomes not as much of a shock of, wow, this is really expensive, and therefore, it is the new normal. Then I think I would have to follow back on, well, how desirable is the product that we sell, meaning new pools. Are pools something that are going to go out of favor or it's a matter of affordability?

如果現在它是正常的，那麼你會——並且它會保持平穩幾年，這時你就不會那麼震驚了，哇，這真的很貴，因此，它成為了新的常態。然後我想我必須回過頭來思考，我們銷售的產品（也就是新泳池）有多受歡迎。游泳池會逐漸失去吸引力，或者這只是一個價格承受能力的問題？

So if rates stay elevated and wages just continue to go up as time goes on, if rates don't move, then eventually we would get back to the growth algorithm because I think maybe naturally, the housing market would open up. I believe that rates will come down, and that should stimulate some growth.

因此，如果利率保持高位，並且隨著時間的推移工資持續上漲，如果利率不變，那麼最終我們將回到成長演算法，因為我認為也許自然而然地，房地產市場就會開放。我相信利率將會下降，這應該會刺激經濟成長。

And as I said, I think there's some pent-up demand on renovation and remodel. And I believe that the product that we are involved in which is the outdoor living and swimming pools are still in high demand, and I would expect those rates come down for it to move. But certainly, in the short term, it will be very hard to get back to the 6% to 9% growth if new pool construction stays flat at 60,000 units.

正如我所說，我認為對於翻新和改造存在一些被壓抑的需求。我相信，我們所涉及的產品，即戶外生活和游泳池，仍然需求旺盛，我預計這些價格會下降，從而推動其發展。但可以肯定的是，短期內，如果新泳池建設數量穩定在 60,000 個，那麼要恢復到 6% 至 9% 的成長率將非常困難。

That's helpful, Peter. I appreciate it. And then Melanie, a quick one for you. You talked through several new private label categories that you're getting into. I know you're already really strong on the private label chem side.

這很有幫助，彼得。我很感激。然後是 Melanie，我問你一個簡單的問題。您談到了您正在涉足的幾個新的自有品牌類別。我知道您在自有品牌化學品方面已經非常強大了。

Could you just dig deeper into what you're doing beyond that? What's the mix of COGS those new private label products are going to account for? And then maybe isolate any gross margin benefits in '25? Thanks.

您能否更深入地講講您除此之外所做的事情？這些新的自有品牌產品的銷貨成本佔比是多少？然後也許在'25年隔離任何毛利率收益？謝謝。

Yeah. So our main focus continues to really be initially for 2025 on the maintenance side of the business. So the various products that we're adding to that portfolio really all cover the maintenance side. And from an overall benefit, we are expecting, kind of back to Ryan's question, as an offset from some of that positive benefit that we got in 2024 related to the import taxes that won't be recurring.

是的。因此，我們在 2025 年的首要重點仍然是業務的維護方面。因此，我們添加到該產品組合中的各種產品實際上涵蓋了維護方面。從整體效益來看，我們預計，這有點回到 Ryan 的問題，作為對我們在 2024 年獲得的一些與不會重複的進口稅相關的積極效益的抵消。

So for the full year, that was about 20 basis points. And then we're also continuing to add to our MPT private label products. On the pool finish and tile side, which we'll see some benefit of that in 2025, but really poised for a future benefit as the new pools and renovations continue to increase.

因此，就全年而言，這一數字約為 20 個基點。然後我們也將繼續增加我們的 MPT 自有品牌產品。在泳池裝飾和瓷磚方面，我們將在 2025 年看到一些好處，但隨著新泳池和翻新工程的不斷增加，未來的好處將真正顯現出來。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Peter Arvan, President and CEO, for any closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給總裁兼執行長 Peter Arvan 先生，請他作最後發言。先生，請繼續。

Thank you all for joining us. We look forward to our next call, which will be on April 24 when we will release our first quarter 2025 results. Have a great day. Thank you.

感謝大家加入我們。我們期待下一次電話會議，會議將於 4 月 24 日舉行，屆時我們將發布 2025 年第一季的業績。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。