Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc (PNFP) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Pinnacle Financial Partners quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Hosting the call today from Pinnacle Financial Partners is Mr. Terry Turner, Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Harold Carpenter, Chief Financial Officer.

大家早安，歡迎參加 Pinnacle Financial Partners 2025 年季度收益電話會議。今天主持 Pinnacle Financial Partners 電話會議的是執行長 Terry Turner 先生和財務長 Harold Carpenter 先生。

Please note, Pinnacle's earnings release and this morning's presentation are available on the Investor Relations page of their website at www.pnfp.com. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay on Pinnacle Financial's website for the next 90 days. (Operator Instructions)

請注意，Pinnacle 的收益報告和今天早上的簡報可在 Pinnacle Financial 網站 www.pnfp.com 的投資者關係頁面上查看。今天的電話會議已錄音，並將在未來 90 天內在 Pinnacle Financial 的網站上提供重播。（操作員指示）

During this presentation, we may make comments that may constitute forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other facts that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Pinnacle Financial to differ materially from any results expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements.

在本次演示中，我們可能會做出構成前瞻性陳述的評論。所有前瞻性陳述均受風險、不確定性和其他事實的影響，這些事實可能導致 Pinnacle Financial 的實際結果、業績或成就與此類前瞻性陳述中表達或暗示的任何結果有重大差異。

Many of such factors are beyond Pinnacle Financial's ability to control or predict, and listeners are cautioned not to put undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. A more detailed description of these and other risks is contained in Pinnacle Financial's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, and its subsequently filed quarterly reports.

許多此類因素超出了 Pinnacle Financial 的控製或預測能力，因此提醒聽眾不要過度依賴此類前瞻性陳述。有關這些風險和其他風險的更詳細描述，請參閱 Pinnacle Financial 截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表格年度報告及其隨後提交的季度報告。

Pinnacle Financial disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. In addition, these remarks may include certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by SEC Regulation G.

Pinnacle Financial 不承擔更新或修改本簡報中任何前瞻性聲明的義務，無論其是否出現新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。此外，這些評論可能包括美國證券交易委員會 G 條例定義的某些非 GAAP 財務指標。

A presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures to the comparable GAAP measures will be made available on Pinnacle Financial's website at www.pnfp.com.

最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標以及非 GAAP 指標與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳表將在 Pinnacle Financial 的網站 www.pnfp.com 上提供。

With that, I'm now going to turn the presentation over to Mr. Terry Turner, Pinnacle's President and CEO.

現在，我將把演講交給 Pinnacle 總裁兼執行長 Terry Turner 先生。

Thank you, Matt. Good morning. Well, I know it's not news to anyone on this call this morning that we're living at a time of unusual volatility and periods of volatility generally have the impact of slowing economic growth and damage and bank performance.

謝謝你，馬特。早安.嗯，我知道對於今天早上參加電話會議的任何人來說，這都不是新聞，我們正處於一個異常動盪的時期，而動盪時期通常會導致經濟成長放緩、損害銀行業績。

But irrespective of the environment, as most of you know, at Pinnacle, we've got a relentless focus on producing shareholder value. It's why we begin every call with this shareholder value dashboard, GAAP measures first, then quickly to the adjusted numbers to give you the best insight into how we see the numbers and how we manage the firm.

但無論環境如何，正如大多數人所知，在 Pinnacle，我們始終堅持不懈地致力於創造股東價值。這就是為什麼我們每次通話時都以股東價值儀表板開始，首先是 GAAP 衡量標準，然後快速提供調整後的數字，以便讓您最好地了解我們如何看待這些數字以及我們如何管理公司。

Anyone that has ever listened to these calls knows and expects that I'm going to particularly highlight revenue growth, EPS growth and tangible book value per share growth, the three metrics that we believe are most highly correlated with long-term shareholder returns.

任何聽過這些電話會議的人都知道並預料到我將特別強調收入成長、每股盈餘成長和每股有形帳面價值成長，我們認為這三個指標與長期股東回報最為密切相關。

As you can see here regarding revenue growth, first quarter '25 was another great quarter, continuing the double-digit trajectory, not only have we had a 10.1% CAGR over the last four years but a 14.2% growth rate, first quarter '25 over first quarter '24. The industry had a two-year downdraft on EPS for a number of reasons including limited loan demand and a downward slope yield curve.

關於營收成長，您可以看到，2025 年第一季度又是一個出色的季度，繼續保持兩位數的成長軌跡，不僅在過去四年中實現了 10.1% 的複合年增長率，而且 2025 年第一季度較 2024 年第一季度的增長率還達到了 14.2%。由於貸款需求有限和殖利率曲線下傾等多種原因，該產業的每股收益在兩年內出現下滑。

Despite that difficult operating environment, you can see here that our adjusted EPS grew 24.2% first quarter '25 over first quarter '24. And lastly, through it all, we've compounded tangible book value per share at a 10.3% rate over the last four years and 10.6% first quarter '25 over first quarter '24.

儘管經營環境很艱難，但您可以看到，2025 年第一季我們的調整後每股收益比 2024 年第一季增長了 24.2%。最後，透過這一切，我們每股有形帳面價值在過去四年中複合成長率為 10.3%，2025 年第一季較 2024 年第一季複合成長率為 10.6%。

So I think at least three questions come to mind about our unusual ability to grow these metrics that I believe are most highly correlated with shareholder returns, almost irrespective of the economic landscape. Number one, how do we grow so reliably when the industry appears do not? Number two, is it a high-risk strategy? And number three, is it sustainable?

因此，我認為，關於我們提高這些指標的非凡能力，至少有三個問題浮現在腦海中，我認為這些指標與股東回報高度相關，幾乎不受經濟狀況的影響。第一，當整個產業看起來發展不順利的時候，我們如何能如此可靠地發展？第二，這是高風險的策略嗎？第三，它可持續嗎？

The answer to all three of those is centered in our hedgehog strategy, which is to continuously attract the best bankers in the market and to enable them to consolidate their books of business from where they were to Pinnacle. We run a continuous recruitment cycle for revenue producers, which is different from most competitors and peers who generally constrain the hiring of revenue producers in an attempt to constrain noninterest expense growth.

這三個問題的答案都集中在我們的刺蝟策略中，即不斷吸引市場上最優秀的銀行家，並使他們能夠將自己的業務從原來的業務整合到 Pinnacle。我們對創收人員進行持續的招聘，這與大多數競爭對手和同行不同，他們通常會限制創收人員的招聘，以試圖抑制非利息支出的成長。

We are always recruiting and hiring the best bankers in our market, not just when we have an opening. And why wouldn't you, the profit leverage on even an average producer is extraordinary.

我們一直在招募和聘用市場上最優秀的銀行家，而不僅僅是在有職缺時才這麼做。為什麼不這樣做呢？即使是普通生產商的利潤槓桿也是巨大的。

Another critical distinction in our model is that we don't hire these revenue producers if they're circulating a resume or they come in to fill out an application. Our assumption is that they're either unhappy or unsuccessful and therefore, not a target for us.

我們模型的另一個關鍵差異是，如果這些收入創造者正在散發履歷表或來填寫申請表，我們就不會僱用他們。我們的假設是，他們要么不高興，要么不成功，因此不是我們的目標。

We don't use headhunters to hire these revenue producers. They tend to produce talent that top from job to job for the next best offer. In general, the only way of revenue producer will be hired at Pinnacle, is that a current Pinnacle associate says, first of all, I've worked with them before and they're good at what they do.

我們不會透過獵人頭來聘請這些創造收入的人。他們傾向於培養出能從一份工作中脫穎而出的人才，以獲得下一個最佳的職位。一般來說，Pinnacle 聘請創收人員的唯一方式是，Pinnacle 的現任員工會說，首先，我以前和他們合作過，他們擅長自己的工作。

And secondly, that they share our values, they'll fit. This distinct recruitment model provide insight into both how we're able to hire so many and how we consistently get outsized performance from those that we hire. I've used this call in the past to highlight how all of this bears on growth.

其次，如果他們認同我們的價值觀，他們就會適應。這種獨特的招募模式讓我們了解到為什麼我們能夠招募到這麼多人才，以及為什麼我們招募到的人才能夠持續獲得超乎尋常的績效。我過去曾用這個電話來強調這一切對成長的影響。

And so I don't want to do that in detail on this call. But as a quick reminder, at a very high level, you might think about it this way.

所以我不想在這通電話中詳細談論這個問題。但需要快速提醒一下，在非常高的層面上，您可能會這樣思考。

We hired a large number of highly experienced revenue producers every year. On average, it takes them roughly four years to consolidate their clients to Pinnacle and the growth comes in on a roughly straight-line basis. This is a market share takeaway strategy that's not meaningfully reliant on economic growth.

我們每年都會聘請大量經驗豐富的創收人員。平均而言，他們大約需要四年時間才能將客戶整合到 Pinnacle，並且成長速度大致呈直線成長。這是一種市場份額爭奪策略，並不真正依賴經濟成長。

As new RMs consolidate their long-standing clients to Pinnacle over that roughly four-year period, it forms an embedded level of growth in clients and balance sheet volumes, which are almost entirely removed from economic growth rates. As you can see here, that ability to attract revenue producers has been successful in our legacy footprint, in our areas of specialization that we've added over the years and in de novo market extensions.

隨著新的客戶經理在約四年的時間裡將其長期客戶整合到 Pinnacle，它形成了客戶和資產負債表規模的嵌入式成長水平，這幾乎完全不受經濟成長率的影響。正如您所看到的，吸引創收者的能力在我們的傳統足跡、我們多年來增加的專業化領域以及新的市場擴展中取得了成功。

Last year, we set a new firm record for the number of highly experienced revenue producers that joined our firm, and we're on a similar track for this year, 37 revenue producers in first quarter of '24 versus 33% first quarter '25. Revenue producers that have been with our firm less than three years accounted for all of our growth in first quarter '25.

去年，我們創下了經驗豐富的創收人加入公司的數量的新紀錄，今年我們也走在了類似的道路上，2024 年第一季度有 37 位創收人加入，而 2025 年第一季度這一比例為 33%。在我們公司工作不到三年的收入來源貢獻了我們 2025 年第一季的全部成長。

The same was true for all of '24. It only makes sense to me that in periods of lower no economic loan demand, relationship managers with large books will be lucky to originate enough volume to just cover their amortization. Generally, the bigger the book, the bigger the headwind.

整個 24 年都是如此。對我來說，唯一合理的解釋是，在經濟貸款需求較低的時期，擁有大量貸款的客戶經理很幸運能夠獲得足夠的貸款量來彌補攤銷。一般來說，書越大，逆風就越大。

Additionally, in our case, specifically, we made a strategic choice roughly two years ago to lower our concentration in commercial real estate which has also served as a drag on the legacy markets. But net-net, this ability to continuously attract experienced lenders and enable them to consolidate the clients to Pinnacle answers the question how we grow so reliably. Is it safe?

此外，具體到我們的情況，大約兩年前我們做出了一項策略選擇，降低對商業房地產的集中度，這也對傳統市場造成了拖累。但總體而言，這種不斷吸引經驗豐富的貸款人並使他們能夠將客戶整合到 Pinnacle 的能力回答了我們如何如此可靠地發展的問題。安全嗎？

We believe our track record demonstrates that it is the average years of experience for the associates when we hire them is 18 years. So if you think about it, when you hire revenue producers that may have been handling clients nearly two decades, two things happen.

我們相信，我們的業績記錄表明，我們僱用員工時他們的平均工作年限為 18 年。所以，如果你仔細想想，當你僱用那些可能已經為客戶打理了近二十年的創收者時，就會發生兩件事。

Number one, you get rapid growth. You'd fully expect that the rate at which they bring loan volumes will be substantially faster than RMs that you give a Dun & Bradstreet list of prospects to and ask them to go meet someone to loan money.

第一，你會獲得快速成長。您完全可以預料，他們帶來貸款金額的速度將比您向其提供鄧白氏潛在客戶名單並要求他們去見某人借錢的 RM 快得多。

And in general, number two, you get great loan quality. It's the opposite adverse selection. They're bringing their clients with whom they're well familiar.

總體而言，第二點是，您可以獲得優質的貸款。這是相反的逆向選擇。他們帶來了他們熟悉的客戶。

They criticized and classified loans behind bringing only their best clients, again, substantially less risky than giving them a Dun & Bradstreet list of prospects which is what most banks do. So this model not only produces rapid and remarkably reliable growth, but high-quality growth as well.

他們對貸款進行批評和分類，只為最優質的客戶提供貸款，這比大多數銀行向客戶提供鄧白氏 (Dun & Bradstreet) 潛在客戶名單的風險要小得多。因此，這種模式不僅能實現快速、可靠的成長，還能實現高品質的成長。

These charts serve as a further demonstration of the reliability of our growth, almost irrespective of the economic environment. On the left, from the Great Recession through 2022, our growth in total loans was nearly three times the US commercial banks and was more than two times that of our peers, a remarkable difference in a period that included such catastrophes as the COVID pandemic.

這些圖表進一步證明了我們的成長的可靠性，幾乎不受經濟環境的影響。左派方面，從大衰退到2022年，我們的貸款總額成長幾乎是美國商業銀行的三倍，是同業的兩倍多，在包括新冠疫情等災難的時期，這是一個顯著的差異。

And on the right, you can see the quarterly year over year growth comparisons for total loans from first quarter '23 through fourth quarter '24, which included a liquidity crisis that literally caused some of our peers to fail. For me, this is a great illustration of how the continuous attraction of highly experienced relationship managers who consolidate their close to Pinnacle has provided something of an underlying floor for loan growth even during periods of virtually no economic loan demand.

在右側，您可以看到 2023 年第一季至 2024 年第四季貸款總額的季度同比增長比較，其中包括一場流動性危機，這場危機實際上導致我們的一些同行倒閉。對我來說，這很好地說明了經驗豐富的關係經理如何持續吸引他們，即使在幾乎沒有經濟貸款需求的時期，他們也為貸款成長提供了某種基礎。

I also want to point out the chart on the right that we added a line for C&I loan growth as well. As I've already mentioned, total loans have actually endured a downdraft as we shrink our concentration in commercial real estate. So the C&I growth may be an even better illustration of the rapid and reliable growth produced by this model.

我還想指出右邊的圖表，我們還添加了一條表示 C&I 貸款成長的線。正如我已經提到的，隨著我們減少對商業房地產的關注，貸款總額實際上經歷了下降趨勢。因此，工商業的成長可能更好地說明了這種模式帶來的快速、可靠的成長。

And as it relates to sustainability, of course, one of the keys to talent attraction is our unique work environment within the last couple of weeks, we were listed by Fortune Magazine as the ninth best workplace in America, up from number one last year. Many have conjectured that as we grow, we'll no longer be able to propel our culture and work environment causing the reversion to the mean for our growth rates.

當然，就永續性而言，吸引人才的關鍵之一是我們獨特的工作環境。在過去的幾周里，我們被《財富》雜誌列為美國第九大最佳工作場所，高於去年的第一位。許多人推測，隨著我們的成長，我們將不再能夠推動我們的文化和工作環境，從而導致我們的成長率回歸平均值。

This year's ranking is our best yet as was the case last year, by the way, which pretty well debunked the thesis that we cannot maintain our special sauce as we grow. And of course, while the power of our ability to attract the best talent accounts for a great deal of the success that we've had, the truth is an equally important key to our success is the differentiated service level that we offer clients compared to client satisfaction with our competitors.

順便說一句，今年的排名是我們迄今為止最好的排名，就像去年一樣，這很好地推翻了我們在發展過程中無法保持我們的特殊優勢的論點。當然，雖然我們吸引最優秀人才的能力在很大程度上決定了我們所取得的成功，但事實上，我們成功的一個同樣重要的關鍵是我們為客戶提供的與競爭對手的客戶滿意度相比差異化的服務水準。

According to Coalition Greenwich, there are 21 drivers of client satisfaction among businesses with annual sales from $1 million to $500 million. In our eight-state footprint, we lead on all 21 of those drivers, every single one of them. The experience is overwhelmingly differentiated, and that feels like a sustainable competitive advantage.

據格林威治聯盟稱，在年銷售額從 100 萬美元到 5 億美元的企業中，客戶滿意度有 21 個驅動因素。在我們涵蓋的八個州中，我們在所有 21 個驅動因素上都處於領先地位。這種體驗具有壓倒性的差異性，這感覺像是一種可持續的競爭優勢。

So without a doubt, my preference would be for a less volatile environment, as I'm sure is the case for everyone on this call. But that said, even in this more volatile environment, given how we grow, we continue to expect client and balance sheet growth for 2025, consistent with our prior guidance.

因此，毫無疑問，我傾向於一個波動較小的環境，我相信參加這次電話會議的每個人都是如此。但話雖如此，即使在這種更動盪的環境中，考慮到我們的成長方式，我們仍然預計 2025 年客戶和資產負債表將實現成長，這與我們先前的指導一致。

With that, let me turn it over to Harold for a more detailed look at the quarter.

說完這些，讓我把話題交給哈羅德，讓他更詳細地介紹本季的情況。

Thanks, Terry. Good morning, everybody. As you may have already concluded, we've reduced the number of slides in the prepared remarks portion of the deck this morning. All of the slides I've traditionally discussed is here in the supplemental portion of the deck, our goal is to quicken the pace and point out the highlights and get to your questions.

謝謝，特里。大家早安。您可能已經得出結論，我們今天早上減少了簡報中準備好的發言部分的幻燈片數量。我傳統上討論過的所有投影片都位於本簡報的補充部分，我們的目標是加快節奏、指出亮點並回答您的問題。

We'll start with loans. End-of-period loans increased 7.3% linked quarter annualized. That was about what we thought at the beginning of the quarter.

我們將從貸款開始。期末貸款較上季年化成長 7.3%。這與我們在本季初的想法差不多。

As Terry mentioned, we continue to lean on our new markets and our recruits to provide the punch and loan growth for us. Again, our loan growth is not so much dependent on economic tailwinds. It's all about these great bankers we've hired and the movement of their prior relationships to us.

正如特里所提到的，我們繼續依靠新市場和新員工為我們提供動力和貸款成長。再次強調，我們的貸款成長並不太依賴經濟順風。這一切都與我們聘用的優秀銀行家以及他們與我們之前的合作關係的變動有關。

There is a ton of uncertainty right now in the broader economy, and we've had many conversations with our relationship managers about pipeline development over the course of the next few quarters. Our clients have a lot of the same uncertainties that the rest of us are wrestling with but appear to remain generally confident about the future, and that eventually, all of this will translate into a stronger, more resilient economy for all of us.

目前，整體經濟中存在大量不確定性，我們已經與客戶關係經理就未來幾季的通路開發進行了多次討論。我們的客戶和我們其他人一樣，面臨著許多同樣的不確定性，但他們似乎對未來仍然充滿信心，最終，所有這些都將為我們所有人帶來更強勁、更具彈性的經濟。

When that will happen is certainly something folks are debating intensely. Given first quarter impact in our pipeline, we'll stay with our estimated outlook at 8% to 11% growth this year. The yield curve bounced around a lot in the first quarter and continues to do so as we begin the second quarter.

這何時會發生無疑是人們激烈爭論的問題。考慮到第一季對我們業務的影響，我們將維持今年 8% 至 11% 的成長預期。殖利率曲線在第一季大幅波動，進入第二季後仍持續波動。

But in the end, we're pleased with how our loan rates performed through the quarter. Although the lift from fixed rate repricing is not as opportunistic as it once was, we still anticipate continued lift in fixed rate loan rates throughout this year.

但最終，我們對本季的貸款利率表現感到滿意。儘管固定利率重新定價帶來的提振作用不像以前那麼明顯，但我們仍然預計今年固定利率貸款利率將繼續上升。

Deposit growth was again a real bright spot for us in the first quarter as we increased deposits by $1.6 billion in the first quarter. This is after a $1.9 billion increase last quarter. Contributing to outsized growth were our investments in our deposit verticals as well as the work of our new associates in several of our newer markets.

存款成長再次成為我們第一季的真正亮點，我們在第一季增加了 16 億美元的存款。這是繼上個季度增加 19 億美元之後的又一舉措。我們對存款垂直領域的投資以及我們在幾個新市場的新員工的工作促進了超額成長。

As of 2025, we're maintaining our estimated growth rate for total deposits, at 7% to 10% for 2025. We believe this is reasonable given our performance in the first quarter. We don't anticipate similar growth in the second quarter as the second quarter may be our toughest deposit growth quarter given that we believe some run-up occurred in March 31 for taxes.

截至 2025 年，我們預計總存款成長率將維持在 7% 至 10% 的水平。考慮到我們第一季的表現，我們認為這是合理的。我們預計第二季不會出現類似的成長，因為我們認為 3 月 31 日的稅收有所上漲，因此第二季可能是我們存款成長最艱難的一個季度。

We're also very pleased with how deposit pricing has performed thus far this year and our deposit -- how both our deposit and loan betas have performed thus far through the cycle. The chart on the top right of the slide shows that during the upright cycle from the end of '21 to the end of June '24.

我們對今年迄今的存款定價表現以及我們的存款——我們的存款和貸款貝塔值在整個週期中的表現也感到非常滿意。幻燈片右上角的圖表顯示了從 21 年底到 24 年 6 月底的直立週期。

Our loan rates increased with a 59% beta, while over the last six months or so, as rates have come down, our loan rates have decreased with a 42% beta. All the while, our deposit beta is at 56%, which is the same as what transpired during the upgrade cycle.

我們的貸款利率上升了 59%，而在過去六個月左右的時間裡，隨著利率下降，我們的貸款利率下降了 42%。同時，我們的存款貝塔值為 56%，與升級週期期間發生的情況相同。

So far, so good for both loans and deposits. As expected, we're pleased that our NIM was flattish at 3.21%. Our outlook for the second quarter of 2025 is that we believe our NIM will remain flattish with some upward bias.

到目前為止，貸款和存款的情況都很好。正如預期的那樣，我們很高興看到我們的 NIM 持平於 3.21%。我們對 2025 年第二季的展望是，我們相信我們的 NIM 將保持平穩，並略有上行趨勢。

As to net interest income, we are estimating a welcome lift in the second quarter given we have an additional day but also increased volumes, which should support our estimate for more revenues. As to 2025, we believe our net interest income growth outlook will continue to approximate a range of 11% to 13% and again, the slope of the yield curve will have significant influence on how all this plays out for the remainder of this year.

至於淨利息收入，我們估計第二季將出現可喜的成長，因為我們增加了一天的工作時間，而且交易量也有所增加，這應該支持我們對更多收入的預期。至 2025 年，我們認為淨利息收入成長前景將繼續保持在 11% 至 13% 左右，殖利率曲線的斜率將對今年剩餘時間的走勢產生重大影響。

So what's up with rate cuts? We've modeled out many scenarios and feel we're in pretty good shape to manage through most rate forecasts that are out there in the markets today. We have constructed our base case outlook around two rate cuts for this year.

那麼降息是怎麼回事呢？我們已經模擬了許多情景，並認為我們能夠很好地應對當今市場上的大多數利率預測。我們根據今年的兩次降息建立了基本預測。

If there's more rate cuts, we feel enough flexibility to modify our game plan and given rates are still elevated from just a few years ago. The ability to match off the impact from lower asset yields with similar actions on our funding base.

如果進一步降息，我們會覺得有足夠的靈活性來修改我們的計劃，而且考慮到利率仍然比幾年前高。能夠透過對我們資金基礎採取類似行動來抵銷較低資產收益率的影響。

A quick word on credit. Our net charge-offs dropped to 16 basis points in the second quarter from 24 basis points in the fourth quarter. For 2025, the current view of our charge-off outlook remains that net charge-offs for 2025 should come in around 16 to 20 basis points.

簡單談談信用。我們的淨沖銷額從第四季的 24 個基點下降到第二季的 16 個基點。對於 2025 年，我們目前對沖銷前景的看法仍然是，2025 年的淨沖銷額應在 16 至 20 個基點左右。

So no change there from last quarter. We did downgrade an apartment loan in Atlanta with around 90% to 95% occupancy, which was the reason our NPAs ticked up this quarter. That project is in process of being marketed, and we feel like we're in good shape with this $35 million loan with an anticipated loss already accounted for in the reserve.

因此與上一季相比沒有變化。我們確實降低了亞特蘭大一處入住率約為 90% 至 95% 的公寓貸款評級，這也是本季我們的不良資產 (NPA) 上升的原因。該項目正在行銷過程中，我們認為這筆 3500 萬美元的貸款狀況良好，並且預期損失已計入儲備金。

Our belief is that resolution should occur over the next couple of quarters. Our reserve did decrease 1 basis point, which we thought was possible given our position at the end of the fourth quarter and have credit continued to perform well.

我們相信解決方案將在未來幾個季度內出現。我們的儲備確實減少了 1 個基點，考慮到我們在第四季度末的狀況並且信貸繼續表現良好，我們認為這是可能的。

We still believe our reserves will remain at or near these levels for the remainder of 2025 if the economic conditions don't materially deteriorate from those we are anticipating. That said, we don't want to appear to tone deaf.

我們仍然相信，如果經濟狀況沒有像我們預期的那樣大幅惡化，我們的儲備將在 2025 年剩餘時間內保持或接近這些水準。話雖如此，我們不想顯得對音樂充耳不聞。

Our credit officers are working their portfolios, trying to understand what tariffs or a protracted trade war could do to our portfolio. We have our eye on several portfolios trying to appreciate which ones may feel more stressed perhaps more sooner than others. Our outlook for our provision to average loans remains at 24 to 27 basis points for this year.

我們的信貸員正在研究他們的投資組合，試圖了解關稅或曠日持久的貿易戰可能對我們的投資組合造成什麼影響。我們密切關注著幾個投資組合，試圖了解哪些投資組合可能比其他投資組合更快感受到更大的壓力。我們對今年撥備與平均貸款比率的預期仍為 24 至 27 個基點。

We are assuming here that we don't find our way to accommodate a significant increase in forecasted unemployment like we did during COVID, only to see the impact of that reverse the next year, which could drive this range up. We do believe a modest increase in unemployment is manageable given our sensitivity analysis.

我們在此假設，我們無法像在新冠疫情期間那樣找到方法來適應預測失業率的大幅上升，而只會在明年看到這種逆轉的影響，這可能會推高這一範圍。根據我們的敏感度分析，我們確實認為失業率的小幅上升是可以控制的。

As to BHG, all of the usual slides are in the supplementals for your reference. BHG had a strong quarter, providing fee revenues to us of over $20 million, which more than -- which was more than the $12.1 million in the fourth quarter and more than we have previously estimated would be the case. BHG closed its tenth ABS issuance in the first quarter for approximately $400 million.

至於 BHG，所有常用幻燈片均在補充資料中，供您參考。BHG 本季表現強勁，為我們帶來了超過 2000 萬美元的費用收入，超過了第四季度的 1210 萬美元，也超過了我們之前估計的數字。BHG 在第一季完成了第十次 ABS 發行，發行金額約為 4 億美元。

Spreads on this issuance were 12.6%, which was the strongest of any issuance for BHG. Wall Street continues to acquire BHG Credit with increased appetite for its volumes. Production was strong in the first quarter. Credit was better than anticipated with past dues continue to improve. Vintage loss curves also seem to signal better days ahead.

本次發行的利差為 12.6%，是 BHG 歷次發行中利差最高的一次。隨著對 BHG Credit 業務量的需求不斷增加，華爾街繼續收購 BHG Credit。第一季生產強勁。信用狀況優於預期，逾期欠款持續改善。復古損失曲線似乎也預示著未來會更好。

We and BHG are both comfortable in raising our earnings estimates for 2025 and from 10% growth to 20% growth over 2024. Several factors are contributing to this decision, lower operating costs this year, better credit performance and stronger production lead flow along with bit rates, all point to what could be a much stronger year for BHG.

我們和 BHG 都樂意上調 2025 年的獲利預期，並將 2024 年的獲利成長率從 10% 提高至 20%。有幾個因素促成了這一決定，今年的營運成本較低、信貸表現較好、生產線索流和比特率較強，所有這些都表明 BHG 的今年可能會表現得更強勁。

Lastly, as to our guide for 2024, we've talked about much of the information on this slide previously. Again, the investments we've made in our new markets and our hiring success are the building blocks we will lean on as we target top quartile results amongst our peers, which we believe this guy should point toward. Other than BHG, we might spend a lot of time this morning, all fees or expenses thus far.

最後，關於我們 2024 年的指南，我們之前已經在這張投影片上討論過很多資訊。再次強調，我們在新市場中所做的投資和招募成功是我們依賴的基石，因為我們的目標是在同行中取得前四分之一的成績，我們相信這傢伙應該朝著這個目標前進。除了 BHG 以外，我們今天早上可能會花費很多時間，迄今為止的所有費用或開支。

As to highlights, we continue to be pleased in our fee line. Banking fees and wealth management are performing well. We're keeping a cautious eye on wealth management, given the market performance and how that might impact our revenue targets this year, but feel like currently, the range provided is reasonable.

至於亮點，我們對我們的費用線仍然感到滿意。銀行手續費及財富管理業務表現良好。考慮到市場表現以及其對我們今年收入目標的影響，我們正謹慎地關注財富管理，但目前感覺提供的範圍是合理的。

As the chart indicates, we remain comfortable with an 8% to 10% growth rate in fees inclusive of BHG's increased to 20% growth this year. We also restructured about $189 million of our investment securities at a loss of approximately $12.5 million.

如圖所示，我們仍然對費用成長率保持在 8% 至 10% 之間感到滿意，其中 BHG 的成長率預計今年將達到 20%。我們也重組了約 1.89 億美元的投資證券，損失約 1,250 萬美元。

This trade met our criteria of an expected three-year payback. Thus, we anticipate the restructuring should add approximately $1 million of spread revenues to us per quarter.

這筆交易符合我們預期三年報酬的標準。因此，我們預計重組將為我們每季增加約 100 萬美元的利差收入。

As to expenses, our outlook does reflect the target award for our associates. And as always, should our performance warrant, we will increase the award if our earnings support any additional incentive costs. We remain at $1.13 million to $1.15 million as estimated expenses for this year.

至於費用，我們的前景確實反映了我們員工的目標獎勵。像往常一樣，如果我們的表現值得肯定，而我們的收入能夠支持任何額外的激勵成本，我們將增加獎金。我們今年的預計支出仍為 113 萬美元至 115 萬美元。

As the tariff discussion plays out, as the recession discussion plays out, as the yield curve and rate cut discussions play out, we are hopeful that more clarity will come forth. But as it sits today, we remain optimistic about our prospects for this year and are confident that 2025 should be another strong year for Pinnacle.

隨著關稅討論、經濟衰退討論、殖利率曲線和降息討論的展開，我們希望會出現更多的明朗因素。但就目前情況而言，我們仍然對今年的前景持樂觀態度，並相信 2025 年將是 Pinnacle 又一個強勁的一年。

With that, I will send it back to Matt for Q&A.

完成後，我會將其發回給 Matt 進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Jared Shaw, Barclays Capital.

（操作員指示）巴克萊資本的賈里德·肖 (Jared Shaw)。

So maybe just the first -- I appreciate the discussion around the uncertainty here. Did you change the baseline assumption under CECL? For calculating the reserves if you go to an adverse scenario? Or are you just keeping it unchanged?

所以也許只是第一個——我很欣賞這裡圍繞著不確定性的討論。您是否改變了 CECL 下的基準假設？如果出現不利情況，要計算儲備金嗎？還是你只是保持不變？

We kept it unchanged, but we used the adverse scenario to influence where a lot of our qualitative assumptions go. So -- but no, we did keep it the same with the baseline.

我們保持它不變，但我們利用不利情境來影響我們的許多定性假設的走向。所以——但是不，我們確實保持了與基線相同的狀態。

Okay. And then on BHG, that's great, great quarter there with the securitization. It feels like the securitization market is a little locked up right now. Is that growth or that higher target dependent on continued securitizations? Or is there flexibility there that they can hold more through the -- or they can place more through the bank sale channel?

好的。然後關於 BHG，這是一個非常棒的季度，證券化表現也十分出色。感覺證券化市場現在有點被鎖定了。這種成長或更高的目標是否依賴持續的證券化？或者他們是否具有靈活性，可以透過持有更多，或者可以透過銀行銷售管道放置更多？

Well, I think they have plenty of room through the bank channel. I think they do believe that there's another ABS issuance towards the end of the year that they're planning for. But at the end of the day, they've got capacity and liquidity in the bank channel to place their credits.

嗯，我認為他們透過銀行管道有足夠的空間。我認為他們確實相信他們計劃在年底發行另一批 ABS。但最終，他們在銀行通路中擁有了發放信貸的能力和流動性。

Okay. And then just on the other fees, where are we seeing the most offset to that higher BHG target, is that in the other or other equity investments or --

好的。然後就其他費用而言，我們看到對 BHG 更高目標的最大抵消是其他或其他股權投資或--

I think the other equity investments has given us some pause that traditionally, we've gotten quite a bit of punch out of there that we probably need to back off on for the rest of the year, and I think BHG is going to help us offset that.

我認為其他股權投資為我們帶來了一些停頓，傳統上，我們從中獲得了相當大的衝擊，我們可能需要在今年剩餘時間內退出，我認為 BHG 將幫助我們抵消這一影響。

Ben Gerlinger, Citi.

花旗銀行的本‧格林格 (Ben Gerlinger)。

So when you guys move into the full year guide unchanged for loan and deposits -- well, first, congrats on a strong start to the year. I think, Harold, you said that deposits could slow a little bit here in 2Q. I think you said you cited tax reasons. I'm just trying to think of like 1Q had really strong loan growth and even stronger deposit growth. Do you think that will flip in 2Q or just a seasonality?

因此，當你們進入全年貸款和存款指南不變時——首先，祝賀你們今年有一個強勁的開端。哈羅德，我認為您說過第二季的存款可能會放緩。我認為您說過您引用了稅收原因。我只是想想第一季的貸款成長確實很強勁，存款成長甚至更強勁。您認為這種情況會在第二季發生轉變嗎？還是只是季節性現象？

Or is it pricing you're willing to let some walk away? I get the loan side is strong because of bankers added over time and they way got created over 20 years. So that makes sense to me. I'm just trying to think like fits and starts, you're expecting on the deposit side.

或者您願意讓某些人放棄這個定價嗎？我認為貸款業務之所以強勁，是因為隨著時間的推移，銀行家的數量不斷增加，而且這些銀行在 20 多年中不斷成長。所以這對我來說是有意義的。我只是斷斷續續地思考，你對存款方面有什麼期待。

Yes. Traditionally, April has been a tough month as far as deposit growth is concerned even for a commercial firm like ours. So we just -- we're hedging our bet a little bit from that perspective. And we do have, we believe, some advantage when it comes to deposit pricing given the growth of order that we don't have to be nearly as front-footed on making sure we get the growth here in the second quarter.

是的。傳統上，就存款成長而言，四月是艱難的一個月，即使對我們這樣的商業公司也是如此。所以我們只是——從這個角度來看，我們正在稍微規避風險。我們相信，考慮到訂單的成長，我們在存款定價方面確實具有一些優勢，我們不必那麼積極地確保第二季實現成長。

As the loans, we feel like that there is enough pipeline there for us to see similar growth in loans in the second quarter, if not just a tad more. And hopefully, it will that will transpire. Did I get to your question, okay, Ben?

就貸款而言，我們覺得那裡有足夠的管道讓我們在第二季度看到類似的貸款成長，甚至更多。希望這能夠實現。我回答完你的問題了嗎，本？

Yes, that was helpful. And then just thinking about loans and the pricing component of them relative to potential payoffs, like we've seen the yield curve be pretty crazy over day-to-day range so far this month? So I don't necessarily think there's a lot of payoff potential.

是的，這很有幫助。然後只考慮貸款及其相對於潛在收益的定價成分，就像我們看到本月迄今為止收益率曲線在日常範圍內相當瘋狂一樣？所以我並不認為這會帶來很大的回報潛力。

But if we see the middle of the bell of the curve come in, a little bit like a five-year, do you think there's potential payoff headwinds in CRE and you're comfortable with the current range in that scenario? I'm just trying to think through -- you guys have been more C&I growth lately to reset the industry or should have, but legacy products are also terming out a little bit here, too. So people might get the bid if there is a refinance opportunity.

但是，如果我們看到曲線的中間部分出現，有點像五年，您是否認為 CRE 存在潛在的回報阻力，並且您對這種情況下當前的範圍感到滿意？我只是試著思考一下——你們最近在 C&I 方面有了更多的成長，以重塑行業，或者應該這樣做，但遺留產品在這裡也有一些期限。因此，如果有再融資機會，人們可能會獲得出價。

Yes. First off, you're right. If the five-year does come in or the three year -- that's where most of these loans are. So true, we could see some prepayments coming back to us.

是的。首先，你是對的。如果確實到了五年或三年期——那麼大多數貸款都是這樣的。確實如此，我們可以看到一些預付款退還給我們。

But hopefully, these clients will give us the opportunity to meet or at least stay in the game with them. So we're not as concerned about the volume aspect of it as perhaps maybe the pricing aspect of it.

但希望這些客戶能給我們機會與他們見面，或至少與他們繼續合作。因此，我們並不關心它的銷售方面，也許更關心它的定價方面。

Got you. And if I could sneak one more in. BHG, it seems like it's an improvement relative to what it might have been 90 days ago. Has the family or you guys changed any thoughts on stake of ownership?

明白了。如果我能再偷偷溜進去一個。BHG，與 90 天前相比似乎有所改善。您的家人或你們對於所有權的想法有改變嗎？

Oh no. No, I think we're still in the same position we've been in as far as our 49%. Our partnership is strong with Al and Eric and his senior management group.

哦不。不，我認為我們仍然處於 49% 的相同位置。我們與 Al、Eric 及其高階管理團隊建立了牢固的合作關係。

So we're in good shape with BHG right now. There's a lot of optimism around that firm. And I think they believe that what's transpired with the '21 and '22 vintages is hopefully in the rearview mirror.

因此，我們目前與 BHG 的合作情況良好。人們對該公司充滿樂觀。我認為他們相信 21 年和 22 年葡萄酒所發生的事情已經成為過去。

Catherine Mealor, KBW.

凱瑟琳·米勒（Catherine Mealor），KBW。

Apologies if you addressed this in your prepared remarks, but I just was curious if you could talk a little bit about slide 20, which is the lines of credit that you give per loan type and just how you would expect those to move as we move through the year?

如果您在準備好的發言中提到了這一點，我很抱歉，但我只是好奇您是否可以談談第 20 張投影片，即您為每種貸款類型提供的信用額度，以及您預計這些額度在全年會如何變化？

Yes, I'll start, and I'll let Terry finish on that. I believe our basically the way our clients approach lines of credit. And we saw a pretty big uptick in lines of credit in the first quarter, is that they will try to keep the -- and I'm talking about C&I and nonowner occupied commercial real estate primarily is they'll try to pretty much hang with about a 50% usage rate, and they always like that number.

是的，我先開始，然後讓特里完成。我相信我們基本上是我們的客戶處理信用額度的方式。我們看到第一季的信貸額度大幅上升，他們會試圖維持——我主要指的是 C&I 和非業主自用商業房地產，他們會試圖將使用率保持在 50% 左右，他們一直都喜歡這個數字。

So if a firm is going to grow, they're probably going to come back to us. And rather than just increase the usage amount of their line, they'll probably come back and just increase the line.

因此，如果一家公司想要發展，他們很可能會回到我們這裡。他們可能不僅會增加生產線的使用量，還會回來增加生產線。

What's going on, we've reopened on construction. And so we should see some more increases there with lines of credit provided rates remain in an acceptable place, particularly around the five-year and the 10-year.

發生了什麼事，我們已經重新開始施工了。因此，只要利率保持在可接受的水平，特別是五年期和十年期利率，我們就應該看到信貸額度進一步增加。

Great. So really, the growth outlook that you have isn't -- there doesn't seem to be a change necessarily in how you're thinking about lines of credit. It's still customer -- bringing new customers over ramping up your new markets, your new revenue producers and it's all just still market share -- base line of credit change.

偉大的。所以實際上，您所擁有的成長前景——您對信貸額度的看法似乎不一定會改變。它仍然是客戶——帶來新客戶，拓展新市場，創造新收入，而這一切仍然只是市場份額——信用底線的變化。

Yes. I think that's accurate. To Harold's point, the biggest component, you got two components that work a little differently on CRE, and he talked about that the other C&I. Generally on C&I financing your financing working assets. And so what has to happen there is you have to start driving up the revenues and increase in inventories and receivables and those kinds of things.

是的。我認為這是準確的。就哈羅德的觀點而言，最大的組成部分是兩個在 CRE 上工作方式略有不同的組成部分，他談到了另一個 C&I。一般來說，C&I 融資是您融資營運資產。所以你必須開始提高收入、增加庫存和應收帳款等等。

And so for me, at this point, it would be hard to say, okay, well, I feel like there's something I can identify here where that's going to be a lot better or a lot worse. And so again, Harold made the point. We'll be watching all these variables as we go forward. We'll get more information.

所以對我來說，在這一點上，很難說，好吧，我覺得我可以確定這裡有一些事情會變得更好或更糟。哈羅德再次強調了這一點。我們將在前進的過程中關注所有這些變數。我們將獲得更多資訊。

But today, our belief about our growth, and really, I think what's an important thing that I want to get communicated was, look, what we're going to do is move market share and add clients, which ought to get us into the range of the growth that we said if we get other economic growth, we'll do better.

但今天，我們對成長的信念，以及我真正想要傳達的一件重要的事情是，看，我們要做的就是擴大市場份額並增加客戶，這應該會讓我們進入成長範圍，我們說過，如果我們獲得其他經濟成長，我們會做得更好。

Got it. That makes sense. And then on the margin outlook, I know originally, you had talked about the margin being a little bit more stable in the first half of the year and then expanding in the second half of the year as we get some cuts. Can you just talk a little bit about sensitivity to that with the rate environment?

知道了。這很有道理。關於利潤率前景，我知道您最初談到利潤率在上半年會稍微穩定一些，然後隨著我們進行一些削減，利潤率在下半年會擴大。能否稍微談談利率環境對此的敏感度？

It feels like you're a little bit more neutral today than you have been and cast your ability to lower deposit costs has been really great. But just curious if there's a little bit more risk to that back half of the year, expansion in the margin.

感覺您今天比以前更加中立，並且您降低存款成本的能力確實非常出色。但我只是好奇，今年下半年利潤率擴張是否會面臨更大的風險。

Yes. I think there's more risk primarily because just we don't know what's going to happen. So give us give us that. But the way our sensitivity works out as long as we're, call it, two rate cuts, give me a range of one to four, we're in really good shape for '25, and we think we can manage it in '26 as well. We still got elevation in deposit rates that we can work through to recapture what we're going to lose on the earning asset side.

是的。我認為風險更大主要是因為我們不知道會發生什麼。所以給我們那個。但我們的敏感度是，只要我們進行兩次降息，給我一個一到四次的區間，那麼我們在 25 年就會處於非常有利的地位，而且我們認為我們也可以在 26 年實現這一目標。我們仍然可以提高存款利率，以便我們能夠彌補生息資產的損失。

But what's more important to us is just the yield curve itself and just trying to figure out how to get to a flattish to maybe a slightly steepening yield curve. If we go back to an inverted curve that say was around for the last two to three years, then that's a more difficult assertion for us.

但對我們來說更重要的是殖利率曲線本身，以及試圖弄清楚如何獲得平坦或略微陡峭的殖利率曲線。如果我們回到過去兩三年出現的倒掛曲線，那麼對我們來說，這是一個更難的斷言。

Timur Braziler, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的 Timur Braziler。

Rounding out the growth conversation, I guess, and what type of an environment might the RM consolidation story not play out or in what type of environment might you not want to take on those types of those loans?

我想，在關於成長的討論中，RM 整合故事可能不會在什麼樣的環境下展開，或者在什麼樣的環境下您可能不想承擔這些類型的貸款？

And I guess just from where you're seeing today versus just a couple of months ago. What are you seeing from the borrower side? And what is the internal appetite to continue growing the balance sheet to some of this uncertainty?

我想，從今天的情況來看，與幾個月前相比，情況有所不同。從借款人的角度來看您看到了什麼？那麼，對於繼續擴大資產負債表以應對這些不確定性的內部需求是什麼？

Timur, I think the way I would go at this is I use that phrase, hedgehog strategy. This is what we do. This is what we've done for 25 years is go attract the best bankers in the market, get them to consolidate their book of business from where it is to us. That's a wildly different approach than just hiring people and giving them a Dun & Bradstreet list. It's a wildly different approach in hiring trainees.

帖木兒，我認為我會用那個短語「刺蝟策略」來處理這個問題。這就是我們所做的。25 年來，我們一直在做的事情就是吸引市場上最優秀的銀行家，讓他們將他們的業務從我們身上整合過來。這與僅僅僱用員工並向他們提供鄧白氏名單的方法截然不同。這是一種截然不同的招募實習生的方法。

It's a wildly different approach than using head owners to hire people, you don't know. We're hiring people that for the most part, somebody in this company has said, I worked with them before, they're good and they share our values.

這與使用總業主來僱用人員的方法截然不同，你不知道。我們招募的人員大多是這樣的，公司裡的某個人曾說過，我以前和他們一起工作過，他們很優秀，並且認同我們的價值觀。

And so that's what gives us such a high execution rate on having these successful people move their books of business. My own belief, any time you're growing as rapidly as we are, I think Dick Kovacevich at Wells said, hey, if it's growing like a weed, it is one.

這就是我們在幫助這些成功人士轉移業務方面具有如此高執行率的原因。我個人認為，任何時候，只要你能像我們一樣快速成長，我想威爾斯的迪克·科瓦塞維奇就會說，嘿，如果它像野草一樣生長，那它就是野草。

And so you have to get down to, so how do you produce this growth and not worry so much about the asset quality. And the way that works is when you're hiring people who have 18 years' experience, they move a book of business, they're well familiar with.

所以你必須認真思考如何實現這種成長，而不要過度擔心資產品質。其運作方式是，當你僱用具有 18 年經驗的人時，他們會處理他們非常熟悉的業務。

They leave criticized and classified assets behind, and they move only their best clients. And so my belief is that is a substantially less risky approach than what many banks are doing that are producing 2%, 3% growth rates because whatever growth they're getting, they're getting it by sending people out calling on folks that don't know trying to meet somebody to loan money to and so forth, which I think is a substantially higher risk.

他們留下了受到批評和保密的資產，只轉移了他們最好的客戶。因此，我相信這種方法比許多銀行的做法風險要小得多，因為許多銀行的成長率只有 2% 或 3%，而無論他們獲得多少成長，都是透過派人出去拜訪那些不認識的人，試圖找到可以藉錢的人等等，而我認為後者的風險要高得多。

So all that said, I'll just try to give you the case for why we continue to be bullish on our ability to attract people and why we believe that we can grow assets at that rate and do it in a safe do it in a safe way. So I guess the bottom line all that is, it's hard for me to imagine a time when we wouldn't want to hire a high-producing relationship manager. That's what we've done for 25 years.

所以，綜上所述，我只是想向你們解釋為什麼我們繼續看好我們吸引人才的能力，以及為什麼我們相信我們可以以這樣的速度增加資產，並以安全的方式做到這一點。所以我想，歸根結底，我很難想像我們什麼時候不想聘請一位高效的關係經理。這正是我們25年來所做的事。

Great. Maybe switching to BHG. I know it's only been 15 days in the new quarter, but a lot has changed. I'm just wondering what the demand is for that paper for the partner banks? Has there been a marked stepping away from some of that demand subsequent liberation day?

偉大的。也許會轉向 BHG。我知道新季度才過去 15 天，但很多事情已經改變。我只是想知道合作銀行對這種紙的需求是多少？解放日之後，這些要求是否有了明顯的退縮？

Or the origination activity that we saw in 1Q pretty indicative for the type of activity you're expecting here more so in the near term?

或者我們在第一季看到的發起活動非常能說明您預期的短期內發生的活動類型？

Based on my last conversations with them, which was probably a week ago on that topic. Their deal flow is still strong. The banks are anxious to buy paper from BHG and they have to be creative, I'll use that word, on making sure that they meet the bank's demands as well as the demands for some of their institutional buyers, so Main Street and Wall Street.

根據我上次與他們就該主題進行的談話，大概是一週前。他們的交易流依然強勁。銀行急於從 BHG 購買票據，他們必須發揮創造力（我會用這個詞），以確保他們滿足銀行的需求以及一些機構買家（也就是大街和華爾街）的需求。

But right now, they're not having any issues placing their debt through the bank channel. And they've got plenty of volume requests from the Wall Street channel as well. Now that's not the ABS Wall Street. That's just some of the large institutional buyers just showing up saying, hey, I want $100 million.

但目前，他們在透過銀行管道償還債務時沒有遇到任何問題。他們也從華爾街管道獲得了大量交易請求。現在這不是 ABS 華爾街。一些大型機構買家只是突然出現並說，嘿，我想要 1 億美元。

Okay. And then just last for me, the timing of the bond restructure.

好的。最後我要說的是債券重整的時機。

It was in the last two weeks of the quarter. it's very little impact to the first quarter, Timur.

這是本季的最後兩週。對第一季的影響很小，Timur。

Michael Rose, Raymond James.

麥可羅斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Just wanted to start on, I think, in the prepared remarks, you talked about some portfolio you'd be doing some work on to assess the impacts of the tariffs. Sorry if I missed it, but can you just describe what are the first areas of focus for you guys? And how encompassing this review would be?

我只是想開始說，在準備好的演講中，您談到了您將要進行的一些工作，以評估關稅的影響。抱歉，如果我錯過了，但你能描述一下你們首先關注的領域是什麼嗎？這次審查的內容有多全面？

Yes. We've had a lot of questions with credit officers and relationship managers about tariffs and trade wars and that like. Right now, the credit officers are focused on trucking their family. They're focused on leverage lending. They're looking at all those clients in all those various areas and just making sure that we're in a good spot.

是的。我們向信貸員和客戶經理詢問了很多有關關稅、貿易戰等問題。目前，信貸員正專注於幫助家人度過難關。他們專注於槓桿貸款。他們正在關注各個不同地區的所有客戶，並確保我們處於良好的地位。

Feel like that the truckers are probably going to be the most stressed right now because -- just because of the supply chain impact that they have. And right now, so far, so good as what we're feeling as a bank, banking those particular trucking firms, but we've got our eye out on them.

感覺卡車司機現在可能是壓力最大的，因為他們對供應鏈產生了影響。目前，作為一家銀行，我們為這些特定的貨運公司提供銀行服務，感覺很好，但我們仍密切關注著它們。

Okay. And then if there's any -- the longer this goes on, right, the more pressure there would be. So there could be potentially some reserve build perhaps related to that, if things continue, I would assume?

好的。如果有的話——這種情況持續的時間越長，壓力就會越大。因此，我認為，如果情況繼續發展下去，可能會有一些與此相關的儲備建設？

Yes. I'm sure that will all translate into unemployment and GDP, and that will require us to build reserves for sure. And keep in mind like what happened in COVID, that will mean we'll have to probably reassess our incentive payouts and all of that as well to help counter some of that.

是的。我確信這一切都會轉化為失業率和 GDP，這肯定需要我們建立儲備。請記住，就像 COVID 中發生的情況一樣，這意味著我們可能必須重新評估我們的獎勵支出以及所有這些，以幫助應對其中的一些問題。

Okay. Perfect. And then thanks for all the -- I appreciate all the color on slide 10 on the betas, both on the loan and deposit side. I think you mentioned that you have some ability to continue to lower cost. Can you just be more specific around that in terms of how much?

好的。完美的。然後感謝大家——我很欣賞第 10 張投影片上有關測試版的所有顏色，包括貸款和存款方面。我認為您提到您有能力繼續降低成本。您能否更具體地說明一下具體金額是多少？

I'm sorry if I missed it in the slides, what's coming up for renewal this year? The CD percentage is around 10% is the room for that to come down? Just some greater color on beta expectations as you move forward. I know it's hard with the curve moving every day, but just any help would be great.

很抱歉，如果我在幻燈片中遺漏了，今年會更新什麼內容？CD 百分比約 10%，還有下降的空間嗎？隨著您不斷前進，對 beta 版的期望會更加清晰。我知道曲線每天都在變化，這很困難，但任何幫助都會很有幫助。

Yes. Substantially, all of our CD book is going to be 12 months or less. We've got some broker deposits that are a little bit longer out there that we help manage entered risk but substantially all of it is going to be within 12 months. So we'll lean on that. But I've also got more than 50% of my other deposit categories are in indexed to the Fed funds rate.

是的。基本上，我們所有的 CD 書的長度都是 12 個月或更短。我們有一些經紀人存款，期限較長，我們會幫助管理進入的風險，但基本上所有的存款都將在 12 個月內完成。所以我們會依賴這一點。但我的其他存款類別中也有超過 50% 與聯邦基金利率掛鉤。

So -- and right now, we're very intentional about making sure we go dollar for dollar with respect to a rate cut. And that's how we're going to do it, Michael, as we believe there's a rate cut coming, we're going to start softening the dirt with our relationship managers to make sure they understand that it's coming, and we need to be prepared to lower these rates with our depositors.

所以 — — 現在，我們非常有意確保在降息方面做到一分一秒都到位。邁克爾，這就是我們要做的事情，因為我們相信降息即將到來，我們將開始與我們的客戶經理緩和關係，以確保他們了解降息即將到來，我們需要準備好降低儲戶的利率。

Okay. Great. Maybe just final one for me. In the release, you mentioned maybe pursuing other geographies for expansion. I know you've successfully obviously gone to Atlanta, Jacksonville, the D.C.

好的。偉大的。對我來說也許只是最後一個。在新聞稿中，您提到也許尋求向其他地區擴張。我知道你已經成功前往亞特蘭大、傑克遜維爾和華盛頓特區。

market. But it read that maybe that could be an option, maybe I'm reading into it but nearer term. But just give us any thoughts around -- I know you talked about Florida before, just some other markets that would be of interest to you. And is that where you plan to be opportunistic at the just markets should be interested.

市場。但它讀到也許這可能是一個選擇，也許我正在讀它但更近一步。但請告訴我們您的想法——我知道您之前談過佛羅裡達州，還有一些其他您可能感興趣的市場。這就是您計劃在公平市場中抓住機會的地方，您應該對此感興趣。

Yes. I think, Michael, you've heard this so many times. I think our target market is in the Southeast. We want to be in all the large urban markets. The voids that exist today are primarily in Florida, we're in Jacksonville, but south of Jacksonville were not.

是的。邁克爾，我想你已經聽過這個很多次了。我認為我們的目標市場在東南部。我們希望進入所有大型城市市場。今天存在的空白主要在佛羅裡達州，我們在傑克遜維爾，但傑克遜維爾南部沒有。

And then as you head up the East Coast, there are some other markets that would be attractive to us, albeit less attractive than some markets like Atlanta and D.C. and some that you mentioned there. Those would include places like Columbia, South Carolina, which is Capital South Carolina, it's a little less large and a little less growth than some, but it would be an attractive market Richmond, Virginia, Tidewater area Virginia, those are all places that we have opportunities.

然後，當您前往東海岸時，您會發現其他一些市場對我們很有吸引力，儘管它們的吸引力不如亞特蘭大、華盛頓特區和您提到的一些市場。這些地方包括南卡羅來納州的哥倫比亞，它是南卡羅來納州的首府，它的規模和增長速度比其他一些地方要小一些，但它是一個有吸引力的市場，還有弗吉尼亞州的里士滿、弗吉尼亞州的潮水地區，這些都是我們有機會的地方。

The catalyst for when we go is only when we have a team that we think can build us a large bank. We're not going somewhere because we've studied census tracks or demographics or psychographics or any of that stuff, we simply go to those markets that you and I know were attractive win.

只有當我們擁有一支我們認為可以為我們建立一家大銀行的團隊時，我們才會採取行動。我們不會因為研究了人口普查軌跡、人口統計、心理統計或任何類似的東西而去某個地方，我們只是去那些你我都知道有吸引力的市場。

We have a group of people that we believe can build us a large bank. And that means they have the stature to hire a large number of people and higher across multiple disciplines and all those kinds of things. So if those people came available today, we would go if they come available in six months, we'll go then two years, we'll go then.

我們相信，我們有一群人可以為我們建立一家大銀行。這意味著他們有能力僱用大量甚至更多跨學科的人才。因此，如果這些人今天有空，我們就會去；如果他們在六個月內有空，我們就會去；如果他們在兩年內有空，我們就會去。

If they never come available, that's okay. We intend to produce outsized growth in our existing footprint. So the opportunity is really when the talent becomes available.

如果它們永遠無法提供，那也沒關係。我們打算在現有基礎上實現超額成長。所以，當人才真正出現時，機會就出現了。

Casey Haire, Autonomous.

凱西‧海爾 (Casey Haire)，《自治》。

Follow-up on the NIM loan yields. Just wondering, I know you guys have some Fed cuts, what you're expecting, but ex those have loan yields bottomed at this, call it, low 6% level, given the fixed rate repricing opportunities and new money yields coming on in the 6s.

追蹤淨利差貸款收益率。只是想知道，我知道你們對聯準會降息有所期待，但考慮到固定利率重新定價機會和 6 年代新貨幣收益率，貸款收益率已觸底，稱之為 6% 的低位。

Yes. Well, if we -- our forecast would say that over the next two quarters, we'll get some more rate cuts. So I don't think loan rates have bottomed. Hopefully, the yield curve will shape up for us that the fixed rate repricing will create the punch that we want with respect to the yield curve.

是的。好吧，如果我們——我們的預測是，在接下來的兩個季度裡，我們將會進一步降息。所以我不認為貸款利率已經觸底。希望殖利率曲線能為我們塑造形狀，固定利率重新定價將在殖利率曲線方面產生我們想要的衝擊力。

So I got a feel we'll probably see loan yields track down once we see rate cuts. And right now, the first one we got projected is in June.

因此，我覺得一旦利率降低，貸款收益率可能會下降。目前，我們預計第一個是在六月。

Right. Yes. Okay. I mean I was thinking more along the lines of ex cuts, like the June cut probably in factor much into the second quarter. But okay.

正確的。是的。好的。我的意思是，我更多地考慮的是降息，例如 6 月的降息可能會對第二季產生很大影響。不過好吧。

Understood.

明白了。

I thought you were talking about all year. Casey, I apologize. We don't think loan rates are going to -- second quarter is not going to move much.

我以為你在談論全年。凱西，我很抱歉。我們認為第二季的貸款利率不會有太大變動。

Okay. And then on the expense side of things, so you're the -- you guys don't -- you're hiring at a pretty fast clip here. right on pace with last year, which was a record year. How is that pipeline shaping up for the balance of the year? And does this expense guide support that level of hiring?

好的。然後從費用方面來看，你們在這裡招募的速度相當快，與去年持平，去年是創紀錄的一年。今年餘下的管道建設進度如何？這份費用指南是否支持這種程度的招募？

I think the pipeline is shaping up well. Our guidance going into the year was that we would hire a similar number of people in 2025 as we did in 2024. That's still the best estimate that I have.

我認為管道進展順利。我們今年的指導方針是，2025 年我們將僱用與 2024 年相似數量的員工。這仍然是我所能做出的最佳估計。

I believe that we hired a number like 13 thus far in the second quarter. So we'll continue to move forward just as we have said we would. And the expense guide does contemplate the hiring.

我相信，到目前為止，我們在第二季度已經僱用了 13 名員工。因此，我們將繼續前進，正如我們所說的那樣。而費用指南確實考慮到了招募。

Okay. Great. And just lastly on the capital front. The CET1 ratio, assume that would bleed a little bit lower given the growth outlook that you have? Just how comfortable where would you no longer feel comfortable?

好的。偉大的。最後談談資本方面。考慮到您所預測的成長前景，CET1 比率是否假設會稍微下降一些？到底有多舒服，哪裡會讓您不再感到舒服？

What's like a floor for the CET1?

CET1 的最低分數是多少？

Yes. We've never really put a floor out there in the market. It did bleed down 10 basis points this quarter. We're not -- I'm not particularly pleased with that. I think we can engineer some things to create more stability in that number so that we don't see it go down.

是的。我們從未真正為市場設定底線。本季度它確實下降了 10 個基點。我們不是——我對此不是特別高興。我認為我們可以設計一些措施來使這個數字更加穩定，這樣我們就不會看到它下降。

Typically, the way our growth works here this year is about call it, $900 million in loan growth, maybe a little bit north of that should keep our risk-based capital ratios pretty flat. That's the market we're using.

通常情況下，我們今年的成長方式是，貸款成長 9 億美元，也許略高於這個數字應該可以讓我們的創投比率保持相當穩定。這就是我們正在利用的市場。

Steve Scouten, Piper Sandler.

史蒂夫·斯考頓、派珀·桑德勒。

So thinking about deposit growth a little bit. I think to me, you guys have always grown loans fantastically, but the strength of deposit growth has really been the welcome part of the story that's been so exemplary. The 7% to 10% deposit growth I mean, I guess, is more of that weighted towards the newer markets, maybe the first part of that?

所以稍微考慮一下存款成長。我認為，對我來說，你們的貸款成長一直非常驚人，但存款成長的強勁才是真正值得歡迎的、堪稱典範的部分。我的意思是，我猜，7% 到 10% 的存款成長更多的是向新市場傾斜，也許是其中的第一部分？

And secondarily, the strength on the betas on the way down that you've had on deposits relative to loans. Do you think that's sustainable? Or could we have a little bit of a catch up there just as we move further down this path?

其次，存款相對於貸款的貝塔係數正在下降，這說明貝塔係數正在下降。您認為這是可持續的嗎？或者，當我們沿著這條路繼續前進時，我們能否稍微趕上一點呢？

Well, as far as the loan beta is concerned, I'm sure there's probably some acceleration that could occur with steeper rate cuts. But as we see it here over this year, we don't think that's really in the cards.

嗯，就貸款貝塔係數而言，我相信隨著利率進一步大幅下調，貸款貝塔係數可能會出現一定程度的加速。但正如我們今年看到的那樣，我們認為這不太可能發生。

We like the way our pricing metrics are working currently on the left side of the balance sheet. We fully intend on the right side of the balance sheet to be as aggressive on deposit cuts here over the next two cuts as we have been.

我們喜歡我們的定價指標目前在資產負債表左側的運作方式。我們完全打算在資產負債表的右側，在接下來的兩次降息中像以前一樣積極地削減存款。

Your point is a good one. Eventually, with deposit rates, if they get -- if we get too many rate cuts or more saying if we get down into the 150 to 200 rate cuts into the 2% Fed funds rate, then it becomes more difficult to get those rate cuts to get a higher beta on that deposit book.

你的觀點很好。最終，對於存款利率，如果——如果我們得到太多次降息或更多，比如說如果我們將 2% 的聯邦基金利率降至 150 到 200 次，那麼通過這些降息來獲得更高的存款賬簿貝塔值就會變得更加困難。

But again, just a few years ago, we were dealing with 25 basis points in Fed funds, and we were running close to, call it, a [3.20%] margin after you factor out a lot of the liquidity that was on the balance sheet. So we're not afraid of steeper, deeper rate cuts, what we don't want to see is that inverted curve again.

但就在幾年前，我們處理的是聯邦基金的 25 個基點，在剔除資產負債表上的大量流動性後，我們的利潤率接近 [3.20%]。因此，我們並不擔心更大幅度、更深層的降息，我們不想看到的是再次出現倒掛的曲線。

Steve, I think on the question about is it skewed towards the growth skew towards new markets and so forth, I think that's a variable. We have some markets that have done extremely well. I think Washington, D.C. is a great example, north of $2 billion in deposits in a pretty short period of time. So that's a great success story.

史蒂夫，我認為關於它是否偏向新市場等的成長傾向的問題，我認為這是一個變數。我們有一些市場表現非常好。我認為華盛頓特區就是一個很好的例子，在相當短的時間內存款就超過 20 億美元。這是一個偉大的成功故事。

But we have other markets that the loan growth would -- the net user of funds as opposed to a net provider fund. So it's a little mixed in terms of how those things play out.

但是我們還有其他市場，貸款成長將是資金的淨使用者，而不是資金的淨提供者。因此，就這些事情的進展而言，情況有點複雜。

The big item that has goose the growth rates on deposits is all the specialty verticals that we built I think we've mentioned those a number of times, things that have to do with escrow accounting or captive insurance companies or health and benefits, different things like that, we built eight or so specializations. And so they have really provided a good part of the growth, and we expect that to be the case for the foreseeable future.

提高存款成長率的重大因素是我們建立的所有專業垂直行業，我想我們已經多次提到這些，這些行業與託管會計或自保保險公司或健康和福利有關，諸如此類，我們建立了大約八個專業領域。因此，它們確實貢獻了很大一部分成長，我們預計在可預見的未來情況仍將如此。

Got it. Fantastic color there. And then you guys have always been just fantastic C&I loan growth has really been the focus apart from M&A has added some CRE in there.

知道了。那裡的色彩非常奇妙。然後你們一直都表現得非常出色，除了併購之外，C&I 貸款成長確實是重點，其中還增加了一些 CRE。

But with all these concerns around tariffs and the economy and uncertainty, I know you mentioned, Harold, I think, trucking leverage lending and so forth. How do you think about C&I lending today as people start to get more concerned?

但是，考慮到對關稅、經濟和不確定性的擔憂，我知道你提到了哈羅德，卡車運輸槓桿貸款等等。當人們開始越來越擔心時，您如何看待當今的商業和工業貸款？

Do you start to take them in any way? Or do you increase reserves around small affluent lending? Or you can get from what you guys are seeing on the calendar?

你開始以任何方式服用它們嗎？或增加小額富裕貸款的儲備？或者您可以從日曆上看到的內容中獲取資訊？

Steve, you broke up there at the end.

史蒂夫，最後你們分手了。

Just what you're seeing on the ground as it pertains --

你在實地看到的情況--

Steve, I'm not sure if that's you or us, but we're not able to hear your question. (technical difficulty)

史蒂夫，我不確定是你還是我們，但我們聽不到你的問題。（技術難度）

Joe, your line is coming through clearly. Steve, once again, please restate your question. Brett Rabatin, Hovde Group.

喬，你的想法表達得很清楚。史蒂夫，請再次重申你的問題。布雷特·拉巴廷（Brett Rabatin），霍夫德集團（Hovde Group）。

Wanted to ask, look at slide 44 with BHG, the thing that set out to me is just that the 30-day past due trends is really good on the consumer side. And just wanted to see -- I mean, everyone is waiting for the consumer to break. Just wanted to see if that was a function of what you guys consider to be underwriting standards? Or if there's anything else that's underlying that positive trend for the consumer past due trends for BHG?

想問一下，看看 BHG 的第 44 張投影片，它向我展示的是，消費者方面的 30 天逾期趨勢確實很好。只是想看看——我的意思是，每個人都在等待消費者突破。只是想看看這是否是你們認為的核保標準的功能？或者還有其他因素導致 BHG 消費者逾期付款趨勢呈現正面趨勢？

Yes. I think BHG has got -- they're obviously watching where credit trends are headed. Right now, in comparison to the prior two years, they feel pretty excited that they don't see nearly the the weakness in their borrower base that they saw two or three years ago. The new accounts that are coming on, they believe are significantly stronger than what they've experienced even pre-COVID.

是的。我認為 BHG 顯然正在關注信貸趨勢的走向。現在，與前兩年相比，他們感到非常興奮，因為他們發現借款人基礎的弱點並不像兩三年前那麼嚴重。他們認為，新開通的帳戶比疫情前的情況強勁得多。

So like I said, they're pretty excited about where it's going, but they're going to keep keen eye on particularly around, call it, near-term defaults like people that maybe borrow money and six months later, they're past due. So they're going to keep an eye on those credits, which became pretty evident, call it, in the '21 and '22 vintages.

所以就像我說的，他們對未來的走向感到非常興奮，但他們會密切關注，特別是所謂的短期違約，例如人們可能藉錢，但六個月後就逾期了。因此，他們會密切關注這些信貸，這在 21 年和 22 年變得非常明顯。

Okay. And I'm surprised no one's asked a question about a pivot. Terry, you always say you grow through recessions. But in the press release, you talked about being nimble, assuming we did built into a recession, what does nimble mean for Pinnacle in terms of how they're -- how you guys are operating and what strategies you guys might do with the balance sheet or expansion?

好的。令我驚訝的是，沒有人問過有關支點的問題。特里，你總是說你在經濟衰退中成長。但在新聞稿中，您談到了靈活，假設我們確實陷入了經濟衰退，那麼靈活對 Pinnacle 來說意味著什麼呢？就你們的營運方式以及你們可能對資產負債表或擴張採取什麼策略而言？

Yes. I think Brad, honestly, the -- you know this as well as I do, man. It's a headline of a day. It's up for half a day, down for half a day. I think it's moving in a lot of different directions.

是的。我認為布拉德，說實話，你和我一樣了解這一點，夥計。這是當天的頭條新聞。上半天，下半天。我認為它正朝著許多不同的方向發展。

And so our approach is just to stay close, try to listen to our clients, know what's going on with them and being responsive to that. I wouldn't want to imply that we've developed a lot of contingency plans where we're going to alter our strategy dramatically or those kinds of things.

因此，我們的方法就是密切關注，努力傾聽客戶的意見，了解他們的情況並做出回應。我不想暗示我們已經制定了很多應急計劃，我們將大幅改變我們的策略或諸如此類的事情。

I think you've watched this over the years. We have tap the brakes a time or two on hiring, we've never stopped it for sure, but we have to have the brakes and slowed the growth, which I think we did two or three years ago. Obviously, the incentive is the big lever that provides the cushion if revenues don't show up and so forth.

我想這些年來你已經看過這個了。我們曾經一兩次在招募方面踩剎車，我們從來沒有真正停止過，但我們必須踩剎車並減緩增長速度，我想我們兩三年前就這樣做了。顯然，當收入沒有出現等等時，激勵措施就是提供緩衝的重要槓桿。

Obviously, the revenues and earnings have to show up to pay an incentive. So that always is a big cushion for us. But in all honesty, Harold mentioned, we're studying loan portfolio, trying to make sure we're up speed on how they're being impacted by tariffs and those kinds of things. But at this point, I would not want to indicate that we've started developing contingency plans.

顯然，必須有收入和收益才能支付獎勵。所以這對我們來說始終是一個很大的緩衝。但坦白說，哈羅德提到，我們正在研究貸款組合，試圖確保我們了解它們如何受到關稅和諸如此類因素的影響。但目前我還不想表明我們已經開始擬定應急計畫。

Okay. And then if I can do one last quick one. I was a little surprised you guys started out the year at 100% incentive PAT ratio that you just mentioned, Terry, just given the uncertainty. Just wanted to maybe hear if that was a function of anything in particular.

好的。然後如果我可以做最後一個快速的事情。特里，考慮到不確定性，我有點驚訝你們今年的激勵性 PAT 比率正如你剛才提到的那樣是 100%。只是想聽聽這是否是某種特定功能。

Brett, no, not really. We think we're pretty much on plan as of the end of the quarter. So hopefully, we can continue that going through the rest of the year and be able to deliver it. But obviously, there's a lot of uncertainties right now that hopefully will play out with some degree of clarity in the second quarter.

布雷特，不，不是真的。我們認為，截至本季末，我們的計劃基本上順利完成。因此，希望我們能夠在今年餘下的時間內繼續保持這種勢頭，並實現這一目標。但顯然，目前存在著許多不確定因素，希望這些因素能在第二季得到一定程度的明朗化。

Anthony Elian, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安東尼·埃利安。

Just a follow-up to the previous question on the loan portfolios you're watching. Harold, could you size up for us the trucking portfolio in terms of outstanding balances, just given that may be the most stress run?

這只是您正在關注的貸款組合的上一個問題的跟進。哈羅德，考慮到這可能是最緊張的運行情況，您能否為我們估算卡車運輸組合的未償餘額？

Yes. I'll throw a number at you, Tony. And if it's not right, I'll give you a buzz back, but I think it's about -- I think transportation is about $700 million. So that would include more than just truckers, but I think it's about $700 million.

是的。我會告訴你一個數字，東尼。如果不正確，我會回覆您，但我認為——我認為交通運輸大約需要 7 億美元。因此，這不僅包括卡車司機，但我認為大約是 7 億美元。

Okay. Got it. And then my follow-up, just one on loan growth. So outstanding quarter again in the first quarter for loan growth, but that was before the tariffs were fully announced.

好的。知道了。接下來是我的一個關於貸款成長的後續問題。因此，第一季的貸款成長再次表現出色，但那是在關稅全面公佈之前。

I know you still expect a strong second quarter for loan growth but can you just dive a bit deeper anecdotally on what you've heard over the past two weeks from your customers in terms of CapEx, other investments they may be thinking about in their pipeline? And if they're making any adjustments now given the elevated uncertainty around tariffs?

我知道您仍然預計第二季貸款將增長強勁，但您能否更深入地談談過去兩週您從客戶那裡聽到的有關資本支出以及他們可能正在考慮的其他投資方面的情況？鑑於關稅不確定性增加，他們現在是否會做出任何調整？

Yes. Tony, my sense of it is that economic loan demand would be near zero today. I think everybody would put the clutch in and say, boy, I just need to see more variables. I don't think you're going to see people wait out and do a lot of deferred capital expenditures.

是的。東尼，我的感覺是，今天的經濟貸款需求接近零。我想每個人都會全力以赴地說，夥計，我只需要看到更多的變數。我認為你不會看到人們等待並進行大量的延期資本支出。

And I don't think anybody believes that you're going to get the growth in working assets here that requires a lot of financing either. And so again, I think it's everybody is just watching to see how it plays through.

我認為沒有人相信你會在這裡實現需要大量融資的營運資產成長。所以，我認為每個人都只是在觀察事情如何發展。

So again, if I were dependent in any way on what the economic loan demand is to produce the 8% to 11% loan growth, I'd be really nervous I'd probably be taking that down. But really, that's the reason we spent so much time just talking about, look, we get growth from our new hires and our new hires are getting it because they're consolidating their balances.

所以，如果我以任何方式依賴經濟貸款需求來實現 8% 至 11% 的貸款成長，我會非常緊張，我可能會降低這一目標。但實際上，這就是我們花費大量時間談論的原因，看，我們從新員工那裡獲得了成長，而我們的新員工之所以獲得成長，是因為他們正在鞏固他們的餘額。

It's not really dependent upon new loans as much as it is just moving pre-existing loans from where they were to us. And so anyway, I think most people are viewing this to be a time of extreme uncertainty. I had a person told me yesterday, he never remember the time with more uncertainty in it. And so anyway, I think that's going to be the order of the day until we can find a landing spot on tariffs.

它實際上並不依賴新貸款，而只是將原有的貸款轉移給我們。無論如何，我認為大多數人都認為這是一個極度不確定的時期。昨天有個人告訴我，他從來不記得時間裡有更多的不確定性。所以無論如何，我認為在我們找到關稅的最終解決方案之前，這將是當務之急。

Right, Terry. And just a follow-up to that. So do you feel like your footprint across the Southeast, which is one of the fastest-growing markets in the country, gives you more insulation relative to other parts of the country in terms of eventually seeing economic loan demand come back and what that could mean for your overall loan growth outlook potentially above the guidance that you have?

對的，特里。這只是對此的後續行動。那麼，您是否覺得您在東南部地區的業務覆蓋面，即全美增長最快的市場之一，相對於全美其他地區，在最終看到經濟貸款需求回升方面為您提供了更多的保護？這對您的整體貸款成長前景可能高於您的預期意味著什麼？

Yes. I do believe that if you could get certainty, I mean, I do think there is an expectation that you're going to reshore, you're going to have increased manufacturing and so forth. The question is when is that going to get here.

是的。我確實相信，如果你能獲得確定性，我的意思是，我確實認為人們期望你將回流，你將增加製造業等等。問題是什麼時候才能實現這一目標。

But I do believe whenever it shows up, our footprint is extraordinarily advantaged. We have been major end migrator of jobs all over the Southeast and would have an expectation that, that phenomenon is going to continue almost irrespective of total growth.

但我確實相信，無論何時它出現，我們的足跡都是極其有利的。我們是整個東南部地區就業機會的主要終端遷移者，我們預計，無論整體成長如何，這種現像都將持續下去。

We still have folks that are in the pipeline to relocate businesses to the Southeast in these urban markets and so forth. So anyway, yes, when we get beyond the uncertainty, my expectation is that we're going to get outside job growth here, which will translate into increased financing opportunities.

我們仍有一些人正在計劃將業務遷移到東南部的城市市場等等。所以無論如何，是的，當我們克服不確定性時，我的預期是我們將在這裡獲得外部就業成長，這將轉化為增加的融資機會。

Brian Martin, Janney.

布萊恩馬丁、珍妮。

Terry, just wondering if your sense today given hiring appears on track that if going to a new market appears more likely, given the pipelines you have in terms of recruiting? Or is that again, is that some of the other question maybe reading more into it? It just feels like mentioning it suggests that maybe it's getting more likely as some of these other markets are gaining traction in terms of hiring.

特里，我只是想知道，鑑於招聘工作似乎已步入正軌，考慮到您在招聘方面擁有的管道，您是否認為進入新市場的可能性更大？或者，這又是其他一些問題，可能需要進一步解讀？只是感覺提到這一點表明，隨著其他一些市場在招聘方面獲得關注，這種可能性可能會越來越大。

Yes. Let me just see if I can clear that up. I wanted to put that in there because -- what is so important to me, as you can tell from our comments, what I need people to understand is, look, we're operating the model that we've been operating for 25 years, which is when we have opportunities to hire good people, we hire them and you ought to have an expectation that we're going to do that.

是的。讓我看看能否澄清這一點。我想把這一點放在那裡，因為——對我來說非常重要的一點是，正如您可以從我們的評論中看到的那樣，我希望人們理解的是，您看，我們正在運行我們已經運行了 25 年的模式，那就是當我們有機會聘請優秀人才時，我們就會聘請他們，您應該期望我們會這樣做。

And that's what's going to produce the growth. It is the reason that we can produce both reliable, rapid and quality growth is that specific model. And so I think there's likelihood.

這才是實現成長的根本原因。我們之所以能夠實現可靠、快速、高品質的成長，就是因為有這種特定的模式。所以我認為有可能。

But if you -- my sentiment about is it more likely today than it was when we started the year or is it less likely today than when we started the year, I would say neither. It just feels the same to me, but may have made a mistake by calling it out, but I just -- I didn't want to sneak up on somebody. We're going to keep hiring people. A lot of my peers are trying to cut staffs and cut expenses and so forth.

但如果你——我的看法是，今天發生這種事情的可能性比年初時更大，還是比年初時更小，我會說兩者都不是。我也有同樣的感覺，但說出來可能有點錯誤，但我只是──我不想偷偷靠近別人。我們將繼續招募人員。我的許多同行都在嘗試裁員、削減開支等等。

And so I just want to be clear, that's not what we're doing. And so that was the point for putting it in there. But I would not want it to indicate that it's more likely or less likely as when we started the year.

所以我只想明確地說，這不是我們正在做的事情。這就是把它放在那裡的意義所在。但我不希望它表明這種情況與年初時相比更有可能或更不可能。

No. Thanks for clearing that, Terry. I understand. And it's been your strategy all along to look at new markets. So totally understand that.

不。謝謝你澄清這一點，特里。我明白。而您的策略一直是尋找新市場。我完全理解這一點。

Just one other -- two other questions. Just in terms of loan growth, Harold, I think you said Construction had opened up a little bit, just in terms of the growth you -- the C&I growth that you put the slide there on has been strong.

還剩下兩個問題。就貸款成長而言，哈羅德，我想您說過建築業已經稍微開放了一點，就增長而言 - 您在幻燈片中提到的 C&I 增長一直很強勁。

Would you expect these other buckets to continue or begin to start growing again, contributing to your loan growth outlook for the year, meaning the multifamily, the nonowner occupied and the construction, should we expect to see some growth there in the coming quarters?

您是否預計這些其他類別的貸款將持續成長或再次開始成長，從而對今年的貸款成長前景做出貢獻，這意味著多戶住宅、非自住住宅和建築業，我們是否應該預計在未來幾個季度會看到一些成長？

Yes. I think -- and I'll let Terry correct me if I'm wrong here, but we don't think we'll see a meaningful lift from construction volume is probably until the first part of next year. As you know, the projects take about six months to start funding, and we're just now beginning to open that back up.

是的。我認為──如果我錯了，我會讓特里糾正我，但我們認為，可能要等到明年年初，我們才會看到建築量有有意義的成長。如您所知，這些項目大約需要六個月的時間才能開始籌集資金，而我們現在才剛開始重新開放這項計畫。

So it will take a little bit before we see volumes from new projects begin to impact our numbers. And until then, we will see current projects continue to fund up. Like I said, we've had a lot of conversations with relationship managers and particularly in construction they feel pretty good that our construction borrowers that they've already had.

因此，我們還需要一段時間才能看到新項目的數量開始影響我們的數字。在此之前，我們將看到當前項目繼續獲得資金支持。正如我所說的，我們已經與客戶關係經理進行了很多次交談，特別是在建築領域，他們對我們現有的建築借款人感到非常滿意。

They've got the materials in place to go ahead and do those projects and complete those projects and don't really we're not really as concerned about what might be happening with steel or concrete or other raw materials to complete some of these projects. So hopefully, that will pan out like we think it will.

他們已經準備好了繼續進行和完成這些項目的材料，我們並不真正擔心在完成這些項目的過程中，鋼材、混凝土或其他原材料會發生什麼情況。所以希望事情能夠像我們想像的那樣順利。

Brian, I think when Harold mentioned CRE opening up, I think the point he was trying to make. As you know, we've been really trying to reduce our concentration in CRE both construction and the total CRE bucket. And so we are inside the target full construction and we're close on the target for total CRE.

布萊恩，我認為當哈羅德提到 CRE 開放時，我想他想要表達的觀點是。如您所知，我們一直在努力降低對商業房地產（包括建築業和整個商業房地產領域）的關注度。因此，我們已達到全面建設的目標，並且接近整體 CRE 的目標。

The glide path will take us below those targets before they begin to fund up. And so I think to Harold's point, it's probably late this year before that thing begins to be north because of the length of time it takes for a project to launch and get to burn through the equity to get into the bank financing. So anyway, hopefully, that's helpful.

在資金開始增加之前，下滑路徑將使我們低於這些目標。所以我認為，正如哈羅德所說，可能要到今年年底，情況才會開始好轉，因為一個專案啟動、耗盡股權並獲得銀行融資需要很長時間。無論如何，希望這會有所幫助。

Yes. No, perfect. And last one, just modeling, Harold, in terms of the tax rate, how should we think about the tax rate here in the coming quarters?

是的。不，完美。最後一個問題，哈羅德，就稅率而言，我們應該如何考慮未來幾季的稅率？

Yes. I think the rate in the first quarter is going to be indicative of what we think for the rest of the year. I don't see any significant increases in the tax rate from here on out. I think we're pretty good. I may put 100 basis points in there just to keep it conservative.

是的。我認為第一季的成長率將預示我們對今年剩餘時間的預期。我認為從現在開始稅率不會有任何顯著的增加。我認為我們很好。我可能會在其中投入 100 個基點，以保持保守。

Okay. So around 18% or so seems fair.

好的。因此 18% 左右似乎是公平的。

Thank you. This concludes our Q&A session. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。各位，今天的活動就到這裡了。現在您可以斷開連接，並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。