Playa Hotels & Resorts NV (PLYA) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Playa Hotels and Resorts third-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Playa Hotels and Resorts 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ryan Hymel. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給 Ryan Hymel。請繼續。

Thank you very, very much, Dave. Good morning, everyone, and welcome again to Playa Hotels & Resorts third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Before we begin, I'd like to remind participants that many of our comments today will be considered forward-looking statements and are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from what has been communicated.

非常非常感謝你，戴夫。大家早安，歡迎再次參加 Playa Hotels & Resorts 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。在開始之前，我想提醒參與者，我們今天的許多評論將被視為前瞻性陳述，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致公司的實際結果與所傳達的結果存在重大差異。

Forward-looking statements made today are effective only as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause our actual results to differ, please review the Risk Factors section of our quarterly report on Form 10-Q, which we filed last night with the SEC. We've updated our Investor Relations website at investors.playaresorts.com, the company's recent releases.

今天所做的前瞻性陳述僅截至今日有效，本公司不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。有關可能導致我們的實際結果出現差異的一些因素的討論，請查看我們昨晚向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 表格季度報告的風險因素部分。我們更新了投資者關係網站 Investors.playaresorts.com，這是該公司最近發布的版本。

In addition, reconciliations to GAAP of the non-GAAP financial measures we discuss on this call were included in yesterday's release. On today's call, Bruce Wardinski, Playa's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will provide comments on the second quarter demand trends and key operational highlights. I will then review our third quarter results and our outlook for the fourth quarter. Bruce will wrap up the call with some concluding remarks before we turn it over to Q&A.

此外，我們在本次電話會議中討論的非公認會計原則財務指標的公認會計原則調節表也包含在昨天的新聞稿中。在今天的電話會議上，Playa 董事長兼執行長 Bruce Wardinski 將就第二季的需求趨勢和主要營運亮點發表評論。然後我將回顧我們第三季的業績和第四季的前景。在我們將其轉為問答之前，布魯斯將用一些總結性言論來結束這次電話會議。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Bruce.

這樣，我就把電話轉給布魯斯。

Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Our third quarter results exceeded our expectations, led by steady underlying performance in our Yucatan and Dominican Republic segments and improving demand in the Pacific Coast and Jamaica.

謝謝，瑞安。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。我們第三季的業績超出了我們的預期，這主要得益於尤卡坦和多明尼加共和國業務的穩定基本業績以及太平洋海岸和牙買加需求的改善。

Following the disruption in bookings due to Hurricane Barrel, underlying demand reverted back to trend across our segments or has slightly improved in the case of Jamaica. Playa's owned resort EBITDA of $36.6 million in the third quarter of 2024 included a benefit from business interruption insurance proceeds of approximately $700,000 in Q3 2024 compared to the $1 million in business interruption proceeds we received in Q3 2023.

颶風「桶」導致預訂中斷後，我們各細分市場的基本需求恢復到趨勢，牙買加的需求略有改善。Playa 擁有的度假村2024 年第三季的EBITDA 為3,660 萬美元，其中包括2024 年第三季約70 萬美元的營業中斷保險收益，而我們在2023 年第三季收到的營業中斷保險收益為100萬美元。

Excluding business interruption, the upside compared to the expectations shared on our last earnings call was driven by: one, better-than-expected close-in demand in the Pacific Coast in Jamaica and better-than-expected ADR growth in the Yucatan and Dominican Republic.

排除業務中斷，與我們上次財報電話會議上分享的預期相比，上漲的原因是：一、牙買加太平洋海岸的近期需求好於預期，以及尤卡坦和多明尼加的 ADR 增長好於預期共和國。

Two, $1 million of higher fee income driven by the continued ramp of the Playa Collection.

第二，Playa Collection 的持續成長推動費用收入增加 100 萬美元。

Three, $1 million of lower corporate expense, which was partially timing related with some of the expected expense falling into the fourth quarter.

第三，公司費用減少了 100 萬美元，這部分與第四季的一些預期費用有關。

Four, a favorable year-over-year foreign currency exchange tailwind of approximately $2.9 million, which was higher than we anticipated. Given the sharp drop in the US dollar-Mexican peso conversion rate in the weeks ahead of our second quarter earnings report, we thought it would be prudent to approach guidance with a potential reversal of the favorable move in mind.

第四，年比有利的外匯兌換推動力約為 290 萬美元，高於我們的預期。鑑於在第二季財報發布前幾週，美元兌墨西哥比索匯率大幅下跌，我們認為，考慮到有利走勢可能逆轉，接近指引是謹慎的做法。

However, the dollar-peso exchange rate continued to move in a favorable manner throughout the quarter. For Q3 2024, we estimate that foreign exchange was a 170 basis points tailwind for both our reported owned resort EBITDA margin and on our legacy portfolio margins. Business interruption proceeds received in Q3 2024 favorably impacted resort margins by approximately 40 basis points, but was an approximate 10 basis points net headwind on a year-over-year basis as the amount of business interruption proceeds received was slightly lower year-over-year.

然而，美元兌比索匯率在整個季度繼續保持有利走勢。對於 2024 年第三季度，我們估計外匯對我們報告的自有度假村 EBITDA 利潤率和我們的傳統投資組合利潤率都有 170 個基點的推動作用。2024 年第三季收到的營業中斷收益對度假村利潤率產生了約 40 個基點的有利影響，但由於收到的營業中斷收益金額同比略低，因此同比淨阻力約 10 個基點。

Adjusting for all of these factors, underlying owned resort EBITDA growth was down approximately 36% in the third quarter for the total portfolio and down approximately 39% for the legacy portfolio, reflecting: one, the significant impact of Hurricane Barrel; two, the construction disruption in the Pacific Coast; and three, the US State Department Travel Advisory on our Jamaican segment.

在調整所有這些因素後，第三季整個投資組合的基礎自有度假村 EBITDA 成長下降了約 36%，傳統投資組合下降了約 39%，反映出：一是颶風「桶」的重大影響；二、太平洋沿岸施工中斷；第三，美國國務院針對牙買加航段的旅遊諮詢。

We expect our underlying EBITDA growth to improve substantially in the fourth quarter compared to the negative 36% in the third quarter as the fourth quarter will have, one, less of an estimated impact from Hurricane Barrel; two, less disruption in Los Cabos; three, improving demand in the Pacific Coast and Jamaica; and four, expected overall strength in fundamentals for the holiday period.

我們預計，與第三季 36% 的負成長相比，第四季我們的基本 EBITDA 成長將大幅改善，因為第四季颶風「桶」的影響將小於預期；第二，減少洛斯卡沃斯的干擾；三、改善太平洋沿岸和牙買加的需求；第四，預計假期期間基本面整體走強。

At the segment level, our teams in the Yucatan did an excellent job on the cost front despite the challenges presented by Hurricane Barrel. Occupancy declined 270 basis points year-over-year in the third quarter, driving currency-neutral margins to decline by approximately 450 basis points year-over-year and underlying EBITDA growth of negative 17%.

在細分市場層面，我們在尤卡坦半島的團隊在成本方面表現出色，儘管面臨颶風「桶」帶來的挑戰。第三季入住率年減 270 個基點，導致貨幣中性利潤率年減約 450 個基點，基本 EBITDA 負成長 17%。

As you may recall, following the realignment of key management personnel, we have been revisiting various processes, staffing models and procurement practices since the second quarter of 2023, and the results of our efforts really began to show in the second half of 2023 as ADR growth moderated.

您可能還記得，隨著關鍵管理人員的調整，我們自2023 年第二季以來一直在重新審視各種流程、人員配置模式和採購實踐，而我們的努力成果在2023 年下半年才真正開始顯現，即ADR成長放緩。

As we've mentioned on previous earnings calls, the process improvements will be iterative, and we will continue increasing efficiency where possible to help offset the impacts of rising wages and inflation in various expense categories, but the contribution from our expense initiatives will taper on a year-over-year basis moving forward as we lap the implementation of our measures.

正如我們在先前的財報電話會議上提到的，流程改進將是迭代的，我們將在可能的情況下繼續提高效率，以幫助抵消工資上漲和通貨膨脹對各種費用類別的影響，但我們的費用計劃的貢獻將逐漸減少隨著我們措施的落實逐漸向前推進。

In the Pacific, our planned renovation work in this segment continued during the third quarter with the peak of the guest impacting construction work taking place during Q3. Demand began to firm up as we move through the peak of the construction disruption. And while this has been encouraging, the increased demand is coming at lower ADRs given the ongoing construction. We anticipate completing the bulk of the renovations ahead of the holidays with the remaining rooms to be completed in early 2025.

在太平洋地區，我們計劃在第三季繼續進行該部分的翻修工作，而影響建築工作的賓客高峰發生在第三季。隨著我們度過施工中斷的高峰期，需求開始強勁。雖然這令人鼓舞，但鑑於正在進行的建設，需求的增加是以較低的平均房價來實現的。我們預計在假期前完成大部分翻修工作，其餘房間將於 2025 年初完成。

Turning to the Dominican Republic. We completed the sale of the Jewel Punta Cana Resort in late December of 2023, and the Jewel Palm Beach Resort was closed for a significant portion of Q1 2023 and sold in the third quarter of this year. The remaining core resorts in this segment continue to perform well on an underlying basis, and we expect year-over-year occupancy and ADR to increase in the fourth quarter following the dip in Q3 as a result of Hurricane Barrel.

轉向多明尼加共和國。我們於 2023 年 12 月下旬完成了 Jewel Punta Cana Resort 的出售，Jewel Palm Beach Resort 在 2023 年第一季的大部分時間都處於關閉狀態，並於今年第三季出售。該細分市場的其餘核心度假村繼續表現良好，我們預計，繼第三季度因颶風「桶」而下降之後，第四季度的同比入住率和平均房價將有所上升。

As previously mentioned, year-over-year comparisons in the segment were also impacted by the receipt of $1 million of business interruption proceeds during the third quarter of 2023 and $700,000 of business interruption proceeds received in Q3 2024.

如前所述，該部門的同比比較也受到 2023 年第三季收到的 100 萬美元業務中斷收益和 2024 年第三季收到的 70 萬美元業務中斷收益的影響。

Finally, Jamaica's third quarter was largely as expected with the approximate 30% RevPAR decline driving a material decline in resort EBITDA. As we outlined on our last earnings call, the segment was starting to regain its footing, especially for the fourth quarter, but the recovery was significantly disrupted by Hurricane Barrel in late June. Although the physical property impact of Barrel was not significant, it had a meaningful impact on demand for the summer and early fall period in both the Caribbean and the Yucatan as both destinations were in the direct path of the storm.

最後，牙買加第三季基本上符合預期，RevPAR 下降約 30%，導致度假村 EBITDA 大幅下降。正如我們在上次財報電話會議上概述的那樣，該部門開始重新站穩腳跟，特別是在第四季度，但復甦受到 6 月底的颶風「桶」的嚴重干擾。儘管「桶」對實體財產的影響並不顯著，但它對加勒比海和尤卡坦半島夏季和初秋的需求產生了重大影響，因為這兩個目的地都位於風暴的直接路徑上。

However, the recovery resumed as we moved through the quarter and ADRs in the market adjusted lower. As we look ahead to the fourth quarter and first half of 2025, our occupancy is pacing close to flat year-over-year, albeit at lower ADRs. This is encouraging as it is the first step toward rebuilding the market and the relative value should aid the destination over time.

然而，隨著本季的進展，市場的美國存託憑證（ADR）調整走低，經濟又恢復了。展望 2025 年第四季和上半年，我們的入住率與去年同期相比接近持平，儘管 ADR 較低。這是令人鼓舞的，因為這是重建市場的第一步，隨著時間的推移，相對價值應該會對目的地有所幫助。

Looking at demand as a whole, following the significant disruption in booking patterns caused by Hurricane Barrel, we largely saw demand normalize as we move through the quarter with the status quo segments of the Dominican Republic and Yucatan Peninsula returning to underlying trends and the Pacific and Jamaica actually seeing underlying improvement, particularly for the holiday period.

從整體需求來看，在颶風「桶」造成預訂模式嚴重中斷之後，隨著本季的進展，我們基本上看到需求正常化，多明尼加共和國和尤卡坦半島的現狀部分恢復了基本趨勢，太平洋和太平洋地區的需求恢復正常。

Looking out to the fourth quarter, our revenue is pacing up low single digits in Yucatan, up mid-teens in the Dominican Republic and down low double digits in Jamaica, with the latter marking a significant improvement compared to the approximate 30% decline in the third quarter. More importantly, the upcoming high season is continuing to build nicely and the demand looks solid, with ADR up low single digits for the total portfolio and up high single digits, excluding Jamaica.

展望第四季度，我們的收入在尤卡坦半島呈低個位數增長，在多明尼加共和國呈中位數增長，在牙買加呈低兩位數下降，與牙買加約30% 的下降相比，後者標誌著顯著改善。更重要的是，即將到來的旺季正在繼續良好發展，需求看起來很穩定，總投資組合的 ADR 上漲了低個位數，但不包括牙買加，ADR 上漲了高個位數。

In aggregate, during the third quarter of 2024, 46.2% of Playa owned and managed transient revenues booked were booked direct, up 50 basis points year-over-year. Playaresorts.com accounted for approximately 13% of our total Playa owned and managed transient room night bookings, continuing to be a critical factor in our customer sourcing and ADR gains.

總體而言，2024 年第三季度，Playa 擁有和管理的臨時收入中，有 46.2% 是直接預訂的，年增 50 個基點。Playaresorts.com 約佔 Playa 擁有和管理的臨時間夜預訂總量的 13%，這仍然是我們尋找客戶和提高 ADR 收益的關鍵因素。

Taking a look at who is traveling, roughly 40.8% of the Playa owned and managed transient room night stays in the quarter came from our direct channels. Geographically, our South American, European and Canadian guest mix all improved meaningfully year-over-year as our American source guest mix continues to normalize. Recovery of our Canadian guest segmentation versus pre-pandemic remains near approximately 80%, and our American guest mix is roughly back to pre-pandemic levels.

看看誰在旅行，本季 Playa 擁有和管理的短暫住宿中約有 40.8% 來自我們的直接管道。從地理位置來看，隨著我們的美國客源組合繼續正常化，我們的南美洲、歐洲和加拿大客源組合都逐年顯著改善。與疫情大流行前相比，我們的加拿大賓客細分市場恢復了約 80%，我們的美國賓客組合大致恢復到了疫情前的水平。

Our European and South American guest mix remained the most elevated versus pre-pandemic at approximately 175% to 200%, while our Asian guest mix was largely unchanged and remains only about 25% recovered. Our visibility remains a critical factor of our success as our booking window was just over three months during the third quarter.

與大流行前相比，我們的歐洲和南美賓客結構仍然是最高的，約為 175% 至 200%，而我們的亞洲賓客結構基本上沒有變化，僅恢復了約 25%。我們的知名度仍然是我們成功的關鍵因素，因為第三季我們的預訂窗口只有三個多月。

Finally, on the capital allocation front, we repurchased approximately $50 million worth of Playa stock during the third quarter and roughly an additional $25 million thus far in the fourth quarter, bringing our total repurchases since resuming our program in September 2022 to approximately $375 million or approximately 29% of the shares outstanding.

最後，在資本配置方面，我們在第三季回購了價值約5,000 萬美元的Playa 股票，第四季迄今又回購了約2,500 萬美元，使自2022 年9 月恢復計畫以來的回購總額達到約3.75 億美元或約佔已發行股份的29%。

Once again, I would like to sincerely thank all of our associates who have continued to deliver world-class service in the face of unexpected challenges and rising operating costs. Their unwavering passion and dedication to service from the heart is what truly sets Playa apart.

我要再次真誠地感謝我們所有的員工，他們在面對意想不到的挑戰和不斷上升的營運成本時繼續提供世界一流的服務。他們堅定不移的熱情和發自內心的服務奉獻精神才是 Playa 真正與眾不同的地方。

With that, I will turn the call back over to Ryan to discuss the balance sheet and our outlook.

這樣，我將把電話轉回瑞安，討論資產負債表和我們的前景。

Thank you, Bruce. I'll begin with a recap of the segment fundamentals, followed by an overview of our balance sheet and expected uses of cash and conclude with our outlook. Before I begin, all references as a reminder to expense and margin KPIs are on a currency-neutral basis and also exclude business interruption proceeds unless otherwise stated.

謝謝你，布魯斯。我將首先回顧該部門的基本面，然後概述我們的資產負債表和預期的現金用途，最後總結我們的前景。在我開始之前，所有對費用和利潤 KPI 的提醒都是在貨幣中性的基礎上進行的，除非另有說明，否則也不包括業務中斷收益。

Our third quarter results were slightly ahead of our expectations on a fundamental basis as demand improved through the quarter. Outside of core owned resort operations, as Bruce mentioned, given the volatility in the dollar-peso exchange rate around the time of our last earnings call, we thought it was prudent to use an exchange rate that was below spot rates at the time of the call, leading to an upside from FX in the quarter as the dollar-peso exchange rate remained favorable.

由於整個季度的需求有所改善，我們第三季的業績基本面略高於我們的預期。正如布魯斯所提到的，在核心度假村業務之外，考慮到我們上次財報電話會議期間美元兌比索匯率的波動，我們認為使用低於當時的即期匯率的匯率是謹慎的做法。匯率仍然有利，導致本季外匯上漲。

Other factors driving the beat were $700,000 business interruption proceeds, higher fee revenue from the Playa collection and the timing of corporate expenses all contributed to better-than-expected adjusted EBITDA. Reported owned resort EBITDA margins declined over 500 basis points year-over-year, including a net negative impact, 10 basis points from lower business interruption proceeds in the quarter versus last year and a positive FX tailwind of 170 basis points.

其他推動這一成長的因素包括 70 萬美元的業務中斷收益、Playa 收費收入的增加以及公司支出的時機，所有這些都導致​​調整後 EBITDA 比預期好。據報告，自有度假村 EBITDA 利潤率年減超過 500 個基點，其中包括淨負面影響、本季業務中斷收益較去年下降 10 個基點以及 170 個基點的正面外匯推動因素。

Adjusting for FX and BI, our underlying margins declined 660 basis points, reflecting the impact of Hurricane Barrel, the peak disruption of the renovation work in the Pacific and the challenging environment in Jamaica. On the cost front, similar to what we're experiencing in bookings in recent months, trends normalized post Hurricane Barrel and our underlying expense inflation assumptions across the major cost buckets have remained steady since our last update, with labor remaining a headwind and food and beverage costs favorably impacting margins.

調整外匯和商業指數後，我們的基本利潤率下降了 660 個基點，反映出颶風「桶」的影響、太平洋地區翻修工程的高峰期中斷以及牙買加充滿挑戰的環境。在成本方面，與我們近幾個月的預訂經驗類似，颶風「桶」後的趨勢正常化，自上次更新以來，我們對主要成本類別的基本費用通膨假設保持穩定，其中勞動力仍然是不利因素，而食品和飲料成本對利潤率產生有利影響。

Turning to our MICE Group business. Our 2024 net MICE group business on the books is approximately $68 million, up roughly 13% compared to the same time last year. For 2025, we have currently $45 million of MICE business on the books, which is a decline versus prior year. The decline was expected, however, given the renovation work in the Pacific Coast and lapping a large group buyout of our Los Cabos resort in Q1 of '24.

轉向我們的 MICE 集團業務。我們 2024 年的 MICE 集團帳面淨業務約 6,800 萬美元，比去年同期成長約 13%。到 2025 年，我們目前帳面上的 MICE 業務為 4,500 萬美元，比前一年有所下降。然而，考慮到太平洋海岸的翻修工程以及 24 年第一季對我們洛斯卡沃斯度假村的大規模集團收購，下降是意料之中的。

As a reminder, that buyout in the Pacific in Q1 of this year was a legacy contract booked at far below market rate, which resulted in the Q1 Pacific Coast reported occupancy up 7.3 percentage points year-over-year, but an ADR decline of just under 3%.

提醒一下，今年第一季度太平洋地區的買斷是一份以遠低於市場價格的價格預訂的遺留合同，這導致第一季度太平洋海岸的入住率同比增長 7.3 個百分點，但平均房價僅下降了低於3%。

Finally, turning to the balance sheet. During the second quarter, we again repriced our term loan, which is due 2029, reducing the spread by an additional 50 basis points to SOFR plus [2.75%], saving over $5 million per year and cumulatively over $15 million annually since our original refinancing in December of '22. Finished the quarter with a total cash balance of $211.1 million and total outstanding interest-bearing debt of $1.08 billion.

最後，轉向資產負債表。第二季度，我們再次重新定價了2029 年到期的定期貸款，將利差比SOFR plus [2.75%] 額外降低了50 個基點，每年節省超過500 萬美元，自最初的再融資以來每年累計節省超過1500 萬美元22 年 12 月。本季末現金餘額總額為 2.111 億美元，未償付息債務總額為 10.8 億美元。

We currently have no outstanding borrowings on our $225 million revolver. And our net leverage on a trailing basis stands at 3.3 times, excluding lease capitalization. We continue to anticipate our cash CapEx spend for full year 2024 to be approximately $100 million to $120 million for the year, partitioned out between roughly $45 million to $50 million for maintenance and other critical CapEx and the remainder designated for ROI-oriented projects.

目前，我們 2.2​​5 億美元的左輪手槍沒有未償還的借款。我們過去的淨槓桿率為 3.3 倍，不包括租賃資本。我們繼續預計2024 年全年的現金資本支出約為1 億至1.2 億美元，其中約4500 萬至5000 萬美元用於維護和其他關鍵資本支出，其餘部分指定用於以投資回報率為導向的項目。

Also, as a reminder, effective April 15, we entered into 2 interest rate swaps to mitigate the floating rate interest in our term loan due 2029. We entered into 2 and 3-year contract, both of which have a fixed notional amount of $275 million and carry fixed SOFR rates of 4.05% and 3.71%, respectively. Separately, we have implemented FX hedges on approximately half of our Mexican peso exposure for 2024, which has greatly reduced the volatility of the impact on our reported EBITDA this year.

此外，謹此提醒，自 4 月 15 日起，我們簽訂了 2 次利率互換協議，以減輕 2029 年到期定期貸款的浮動利率利息。我們簽訂了兩年期和三年期的合同，兩者的固定名目金額均為 2.75 億美元，固定 SOFR 利率分別為 4.05% 和 3.71%。另外，我們對 2024 年約一半的墨西哥比索敞口實施了外匯對沖，這大大降低了對我們今年報告的 EBITDA 影響的波動性。

On the exchange rates at the time we entered into the FX forwards, we estimate the full year 2024 EBITDA impact from the Mexican peso to be roughly $0 to $3 million headwind, which is slightly better than our previous outlook of a $5 million to $8 million headwind.

根據我們簽訂外匯遠期合約時的匯率，我們估計墨西哥比索對 2024 年全年 EBITDA 的影響約為 0 至 300 萬美元，這略好於我們之前 500 萬至 800 萬美元的預期逆風。

We expect the fourth quarter FX impact to be a favorable approximately $1 million. On the capital allocation front, as Bruce mentioned, we repurchased an additional $50 million of stock during the quarter and an additional approximately $25 million thus far in Q4 of this year. Since we began repurchasing shares in September of '22, we've repurchased over 48 million shares or over 29% of our float.

我們預計第四季外匯影響約為 100 萬美元。在資本配置方面，正如 Bruce 所提到的，我們在本季額外回購了 5,000 萬美元的股票，今年第四季迄今又回購了約 2,500 萬美元的股票。自 2022 年 9 月開始回購股票以來，我們已經回購了超過 4,800 萬股股票，佔流通股的 29% 以上。

We still have over $50 million remaining on our existing repurchase authorization. Our leverage ratios at or near 3 times, plus the anticipated free cash flow generation of the business and the attractive valuation of our stock, we continue to believe repurchasing shares is a very compelling use of capital and intend to use our discretionary capital to repurchase shares going forward, depending, of course, on market conditions.

我們現有的回購授權仍剩餘超過 5,000 萬美元。我們的槓桿率達到或接近3倍，加上預期的業務自由現金流產生和我們股票的有吸引力的估值，我們仍然相信回購股票是一種非常引人注目的資本用途，並打算使用我們的可自由支配資本來回購股票當然，未來的發展取決於市場狀況。

Now turning our attention to our outlook for 2024. First, again, I'd like to remind everyone of the unique items affecting the comparability of our financials compared to 2023 before we dive in. So as a reminder, first, foreign exchange, the Mexican peso and the appreciation of the peso had a $24.5 million impact on adjusted EBITDA in 2023.

現在將我們的注意力轉向 2024 年的展望。首先，在我們深入探討之前，我想再次提醒大家，影響我們財務狀況與 2023 年相比的可比較性的獨特因素。提醒一下，首先，外匯、墨西哥比索和比索升值對 2023 年調整後 EBITDA 產生了 2,450 萬美元的影響。

Business interruption in 2023, we recognized $6.1 million of BI proceeds with $4.3 million coming in the second quarter of '23 and approximately $900,000 in Q3 and Q4 of last year, respectively. As a reminder, the DR Jewel properties, both of which have been sold, resorts recorded an EBITDA loss of approximately $15 million and negatively impacted owned resort margins by 280 basis points. Roughly one third of the loss occurred during the first quarter of 2024 as the Jewel Palm Beach Resort was closed for the majority of the quarter.

由於 2023 年業務中斷，我們確認了 610 萬美元的 BI 收益，其中 23 年第二季收益為 430 萬美元，去年第三季和第四季收益約為 90 萬美元。需要提醒的是，DR Jewel 物業均已出售，度假村的 EBITDA 損失約為 1,500 萬美元，並對自有度假村利潤率產生了 280 個基點的負面影響。大約三分之一的損失發生在 2024 年第一季度，因為寶石棕櫚海灘度假村在該季度的大部分時間都處於關閉狀態。

Now turning to our outlook. We currently expect full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA to be $250 million to $255 million, which includes the following key considerations and inputs. Firstly, our expectation for occupancy is unchanged. We still expect to be up low single-digit percentage points for the total portfolio and down low single digits for the legacy portfolio.

現在轉向我們的展望。我們目前預計 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 為 2.5 億至 2.55 億美元，其中包括以下關鍵考量和投入。首先，我們對入住率的預期並沒有改變。我們仍預期整個投資組合將成長低個位數百分點，而傳統投資組合將下降低個位數百分點。

We expect a slight improvement in the total portfolio ADR growth as we now expect mid-single-digit ADR growth, reflecting the disposition of the Jewel Palm Beach Resort, and we expect to be up low single-digit ADR growth for the legacy portfolio. There's currently no change to the RevPAR growth of mid-single digit to high single digit for the total portfolio, and we still expect to be down low single digits for the legacy portfolio.

我們預計總投資組合的ADR 成長將略有改善，因為我們現在預計ADR 成長將達到中個位數，這反映了寶石棕櫚灘度假村的處置，並且我們預計傳統投資組合的ADR 成長將達到低個位數。目前，整個投資組合的每間可用客房收入中個位數到高個位數的成長沒有變化，我們仍然預期傳統投資組合的低個位數將會下降。

As I mentioned, we still expect an FX headwind of approximately $0 million to $3 million for the full year based on current exchange rates, net of our forwards. We still expect construction disruption impact in the mid to high teens in the Pacific Coast for the renovations. As I mentioned, there's no change in underlying expense inflation assumptions.

正如我所提到的，根據當前匯率（扣除我們的遠期匯率），我們仍然預計全年的外匯逆風約為 000 萬至 300 萬美元。我們仍然預計太平洋海岸的翻修工程將在十幾歲左右受到施工中斷的影響。正如我所提到的，基本費用通膨假設沒有變化。

As we've mentioned in previous calls, we've been diligently working to improve our efficiency, and we still believe we've lowered our margin leverage hurdle to approximately 4% ADR growth to hold margins flat on a currency and business interruption adjusted basis. We expect a modest net negative impact from annualizing corporate expense increases from '23, which again is partially offset by higher and growing fee income, particularly from the Playa Collection.

正如我們在先前的電話會議中提到的，我們一直在努力提高效率，並且我們仍然相信我們已將保證金槓桿門檻降低至ADR 增長約4%，以在貨幣和業務中斷調整後的基礎上保持利潤率持平。我們預計，自 23 年以來，年化企業費用增加將產生適度的淨負面影響，這又會被較高且不斷增長的費用收入（尤其是來自 Playa Collection 的費用收入）所部分抵消。

Turning specifically to our Q4 outlook for the fourth quarter. We expect reported occupancy to be in the low to mid-70s and reported package ADR to increase mid-single digits on a year-over-year basis. We expect owned resort EBITDA margins to decline significantly year-over-year, given the obvious continued renovation disruption in the Pacific and the aforementioned $900,000 of business interruption proceeds recorded in Q4 of last year, which again was a positive 40 basis points impact to the comparison period.

具體來說我們對第四季的第四季展望。我們預計報告的入住率將在 70 多歲左右，報告的套餐 ADR 將比去年同期成長中個位數。鑑於太平洋地區明顯持續的翻修中斷以及上述去年第四季度記錄的 90 萬美元業務中斷收益，我們預計自有度假村 EBITDA 利潤率將同比大幅下降，這再次對度假村產生了 40 個基點的積極影響比較期。

FX, again, is expected to positively impact margins by approximately 50 basis points. Putting it all together, we expect Playa collection and management fee income of $2 million to $3 million, corporate expense for the quarter of $15 million to $16 million and adjusted EBITDA of $48 million to $53 million.

預計外匯將再次對利潤率產生約 50 個基點的正面影響。總而言之，我們預計 Playa 收款和管理費收入為 200 萬至 300 萬美元，本季公司費用為 1,500 萬至 1,600 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 4,800 萬至 5,300 萬美元。

Again, we anticipate that Hurricane Barrel will have a negative impact on the fourth quarter, but the bulk of the storms disruption was felt in the third quarter. Given our booking window, we're currently 95% booked for the fourth quarter as of the end of October. We hope that this framework helps guide you as you fine-tune your models and gives further insight in what we're seeing and expecting.

我們再次預期颶風「桶」將對第四季產生負面影響，但大部分風暴破壞是在第三季感受到的。鑑於我們的預訂窗口，截至 10 月底，我們目前第四季的預訂率為 95%。我們希望這個框架有助於引導您微調模型，並進一步了解我們所看到和期望的內容。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Bruce for some closing remarks.

接下來，我會將電話轉回給 Bruce，讓其結束語。

Thanks, Ryan. Following the disruption caused by Hurricane Barrel, fundamentals are largely back on track as we near the upcoming high season. I'm encouraged by the improvement in Jamaica and the momentum as we approach the holidays, but we remain mindful that we still face headwinds early in 2025 until we lap the decline in Jamaica and as we build up higher rated bookings in the Pacific following the anticipated completion of the renovation work in early 2025.

謝謝，瑞安。在颶風「桶」造成的破壞之後，隨著即將到來的旺季臨近，基本面已基本回到正軌。我對牙買加的改善和假期臨近時的勢頭感到鼓舞，但我們仍然要注意，在 2025 年初我們仍然面臨逆風，直到我們經歷牙買加的下滑，並且隨著我們在太平洋地區的預訂量在翻新工程預計於2025 年初完工。

The sizable opportunity ahead in 2026 following the renovation of Zilara Cancun and the anticipated ramp in MICE business in Los Cabos should create meaningful shareholder value for years to come. We intend to continue executing at a high level and managing costs while returning free cash flow to shareholders through share repurchases.

Zilara Cancun 改造後以及洛斯卡沃斯 MICE 業務的預期成長將在 2026 年帶來巨大機遇，應該會在未來幾年創造有意義的股東價值。我們打算繼續高水準執行並管理成本，同時透過股票回購向股東返還自由現金流。

With that, I'd like to open up the call for your questions.

至此，我想打開電話詢問您的問題。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員說明）

Patrick Scholes, Truest Securities.

派崔克‧斯科爾斯，真實證券。

Hey, good morning. Thank you. Ryan and Bruce wondering if you could give us, if possible, a little bit of your initial expectations for 2026. Certainly, 2025, you're going to have an earnings hit from renovation disruption. But how might we think about what potentially a range of adjusted EBITDA could be for 2026 coming out of the 2025 renovations, if you can provide.

嘿，早安。謝謝。Ryan 和 Bruce 想知道您是否可以向我們透露您對 2026 年的初步期望。當然，到 2025 年，您的收入將因裝修中斷而受到影響。但是，如果您能提供的話，我們如何考慮 2025 年翻修後 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 的潛在範圍是多少。

We're certainly a long way from giving guidance to '26, but I think it might be helpful to bridge you to '25 and make sure everybody understands those building blocks. So, then you have a good idea for them what could potentially come back in 2026. I think that's the best way to think about it before we start commenting on any sort of fundamental assumptions two years out. I think that's probably the best way to do it, if that's okay with you. But let's start with 2025.

當然，距離為 '26 提供指導還有很長的路要走，但我認為這可能有助於為您建立通往 '25 的橋樑，並確保每個人都理解這些構建模組。那麼，您對他們 2026 年可能出現的情況有了一個好主意。我認為這是我們在兩年後開始評論任何基本假設之前思考這個問題的最佳方式。我認為這可能是最好的方法，如果你同意的話。但讓我們從 2025 年開始。

So, you heard us talk many times about the significant renovation disruption in the Pacific. And we've said we've had high teens disruption, EBITDA disruption. So, let's call that $20 million. That work is largely completed by the end of this year, but there will still be rooms out of service next year in Q1.

因此，您很多次聽到我們談論太平洋地區的重大改造中斷。我們已經說過，我們已經經歷了青少年的高度破壞，EBITDA 的破壞。所以，我們稱之為 2000 萬美元。這項工作將在今年年底前基本完成，但明年第一季仍將有房間無法使用。

So, we expect, just by virtue of having rooms back online in Q2 through Q4, we will recoup some of that $20 million disruption next year, but not all of it. So as a baseline assumption, we've assumed roughly half of that $20 million. So, you get positive $10 million, right? Could we outperform? Certainly. We don't expect that we'll have group substantially next year because groups are booking for 2026.

因此，我們預計，光是第二季到第四季客房恢復上線，我們就能在明年彌補部分 2,000 萬美元的損失，但不是全部。因此，作為基準假設，我們假設了這 2000 萬美元中的大約一半。那麼，你得到了 1000 萬美元，對嗎？我們能超越嗎？當然。我們預計明年不會有大量團體預訂，因為團體預訂的時間為 2026 年。

And the sentiment from meeting planners is that the room rent work that we've done there is great, but we don't expect big group business in '25. So that's why we expect roughly to get half of that back. So, that's a positive $10 million for next year.

會議策劃者的看法是，我們在那裡所做的房間租賃工作很棒，但我們預計 25 年不會出現大型團體業務。這就是為什麼我們預計大約能拿回一半的錢。因此，明年的收入為 1000 萬美元。

Jamaica is still a wildcard. As a reminder, we won't lap the impacts to the travel advisory warning until Q2 of next year because our first quarter was still pretty good this year. So, net-net, our best estimate for the impact of annualizing that Travel advisory warning is a negative $10 million to next year. So up $10 million, down $10 million.

牙買加仍然是一個通配符。提醒一下，我們要到明年第二季才會將旅行諮詢警告的影響納入考慮範圍，因為今年第一季的表現仍然相當不錯。因此，我們對將旅行諮詢警告按年計算的影響的最佳估計是明年將產生負 1000 萬美元的影響。因此增加 1000 萬美元，減少 1000 萬美元。

We've talked about our plans for renovating the Zilara in Cancun. I know we've covered all the reasons why, but it's a spectacular asset, and I think it's going to drive some nice incremental returns in '26 and beyond. But that property does roughly high teens EBITDA this year. So, we'll keep it open through the end of March next year, shut it down, reopen at the end of the year.

我們已經討論了翻新坎昆 Zilara 的計劃。我知道我們已經涵蓋了所有原因，但它是一項引人注目的資產，我認為它將在 26 年及以後帶來一些不錯的增量回報。但該物業今年的 EBITDA 大約高達十幾歲。所以，我們將保持開放到明年三月底，然後關閉，年底重新開放。

And so net-net, it's roughly a $20 million year-over-year swing because it will obviously lose money and have carrying costs throughout the time it's closed. So that's a down $20 million impact. You have to remove business interruption that we recorded this year.

因此，淨淨額同比波動約為 2000 萬美元，因為它顯然會虧損，並且在關閉期間會產生持有成本。因此，這相當於減少了 2000 萬美元的影響。您必須消除我們今年記錄的業務中斷。

But then lastly, the nice tailwind is, as I'm sure you've followed, the foreign exchange, the Mexican peso has weakened substantially. It started doing so in June and July, but really weakened in August. And we actually leaned into it and layered on 12 more Mexican peso forwards for 2025 throughout the year at a weighted average of roughly 19.5%.

但最後，正如我確信您已經關注的那樣，有利的順風車是外匯，墨西哥比索已大幅疲軟。它從六月和七月開始如此，但在八月真正減弱。我們實際上傾向於這一點，並在 2025 年全年增加了 12 個墨西哥比索遠期合約，加權平均約為 19.5%。

So, all that means is you're walking into next year with roughly $12 million to $17 million of EBITDA in your pocket, mostly first half weighted. So, add all that up, CPAT, you're roughly flat to probably down 5-ish next year for 2025 before you make any assumptions on operating fundamentals or any assumptions yet on what will happen with Jamaica when you start to lap the travel advisory.

因此，這意味著您將在明年擁有約 1,200 萬至 1,700 萬美元的 EBITDA，其中大部分是上半年加權的。因此，將所有這些加起來，CPAT，在您對運營基本面做出任何假設或對當您開始關注旅行建議時牙買加將發生什麼進行任何假設之前，您明年2025 年的價格大致持平，甚至可能下降5 左右。

Now you skip ahead to 2026, far from guidance, you could at least expect that you get back the additional $10 million in the Pacific, right? You would at least get back and hopefully more the $20 million lost from the Zilara Cancun. And then you can start to make assumptions on how the shape of the recovery plays out with Jamaica.

現在你跳到 2026 年，遠離指導，你至少可以期望在太平洋地區收回額外的 1000 萬美元，對嗎？您至少可以挽回 Zilara Cancun 損失的 2000 萬美元，而且希望能得到更多。然後你可以開始對牙買加的復甦形態做出假設。

Right now, Bruce touched on it, and we talked about it in the prepared remarks, we've seen occupancy begin to stabilize because of some of our yield management tactics. We've essentially been stimulating demand in the old-fashioned way by lowering ADRs. And so, the pacing for occupancy looks good, but it's at the expense of ADR. So, this is a first step in recovering that market.

現在，布魯斯談到了這一點，我們在準備好的發言中談到了這一點，由於我們的一些收益管理策略，我們已經看到入住率開始穩定。我們本質上是透過降低美國存託憑證（ADR）以老式的方式刺激需求。因此，入住率看起來不錯，但是以犧牲平均房價為代價的。因此，這是恢復該市場的第一步。

So hopefully, in 2026, you're able to start yield managing ADR up as you've returned occupancy to previous levels. So, net-net, that puts you in the plus $30 million-plus. So, you're somewhere in the potentially $275 million and above. Again, that's extremely early. That's a long way off, but then you can layer in incremental growth from the renovations, any fundamental growth you expect in the markets and how Jamaica recovery. So, I know that was a long answer, but I thought was important to give you those building blocks.

因此，希望在 2026 年，隨著入住率恢復到先前的水平，您能夠開始對 ADR 進行收益管理。所以，淨淨，這會讓你獲得 3000 萬美元以上的收益。因此，您的潛在收入可能在 2.75 億美元或以上。再說一遍，這還太早了。這還有很長的路要走，但你可以從翻修中逐步增加成長、你預期市場的任何基本成長以及牙買加的復甦方式。所以，我知道這是一個很長的答案，但我認為為您提供這些構建塊很重要。

That was great. More than I expected. It sounds like you're well prepared for the call to answer any questions like that. Thank you. Appreciate it.

那很棒。超出我的預期。聽起來您已經做好了回答此類問題的充分準備。謝謝。欣賞它。

Smedes Rose, Citi.

斯梅德斯·羅斯，花旗銀行。

Hi, thank you. I just wanted to maybe talk a little just nearer term. You mentioned some of the bookings activity you're seeing in the fourth quarter, but maybe just a little more color around, I guess, what's called the festive season that we're hearing other companies talk about.

你好，謝謝。我只是想談談近期的情況。您提到了您在第四季度看到的一些預訂活動，但我想，我們聽到其他公司談論的所謂節日季節可能只是更多的色彩。

And then if you could maybe just talk a little bit more about the recent announcement that Hyatt made with an all-inclusive group in the same regions you're competing in. Do you think it matters for you one way or the other with them taking over management of those assets?

然後，您能否再多談談凱悅酒店最近與您所在地區的綜合性集團所發布的公告。您認為他們接管這些資產的管理對您來說重要嗎？

Yeah. I'll let Bruce handle the second one. We're still not too dissimilar what others have said our festive season looks pretty good. Particularly at our Yucatan and the DR segment, both are pacing up for Q4 and for Q1. Obviously, Jamaica ADR and revenue is still pacing down as we haven't reached the reference point by which the travel advisers started to take effect. And the Pacific is still largely behind because of the rooms offline. But our steady-state markets are pacing very well for both Thanksgiving and the festive season, which we're very excited about.

是的。我會讓布魯斯處理第二件事。我們仍然和其他人所說的沒什麼不同，我們的節日看起來相當不錯。特別是在我們的尤卡坦半島和災難復原部分，兩者都在為第四季和第一季加快步伐。顯然，牙買加的 ADR 和收入仍在下降，因為我們尚未達到旅遊顧問開始生效的參考點。由於房間離線，太平洋仍然在很大程度上落後。但我們的穩態市場在感恩節和節日期間都進展順利，對此我們感到非常興奮。

Smedes, on the Hyatt announcement, I think it's a great deal for Hyatt. I think I've said all along that in our space, and this goes back to our founding in 2006 that there's a tremendous opportunity in the all-inclusive segment for consolidation. There's a lot of family owner-operator companies just like Grupo Pinero, which operates under the Hyatt brand.

Smedes，關於凱悅酒店的公告，我認為這對凱悅酒店來說是一件很棒的事。我想我一直在我們的領域說過這一點，這可以追溯到我們 2006 年成立時，全包業務領域存在巨大的整合機會。有許多家族業主經營公司，例如以凱悅品牌經營的 Grupo Pinero。

And I think what Hyatt is doing is just really smart strategically. They already are the dominant major global brand in all-inclusive with the original deal with us and then with their acquisition of Apple Leisure Group and now with this transaction. So, I think it's really, really strategically smart for them. And I think you'll continue to see that in other brands doing this same kind of deals.

我認為凱悅所做的事情在戰略上非常明智。透過最初與我們的交易、隨後收購 Apple Leisure Group 以及現在的本次交易，他們已成為全包領域占主導地位的主要全球品牌。所以，我認為這對他們來說在戰略上非常非常明智。我想你會繼續看到其他品牌做同樣的交易。

Now with regards to does it impact us? Quite honestly, no. Number one, it's already existing stuff that's out there. So, it's not like you're adding new rooms into these markets. Number two, for the most part, these properties are different, very different than ours.

現在它對我們有影響嗎？老實說，不行。第一，它已經是現有的東西了。因此，您並不是要為這些市場增加新房間。第二，在大多數情況下，這些屬性是不同的，與我們的屬性非常不同。

They're very large properties with lots and lots of rooms at them. They traditionally sell through tour operator channels, and they're at a lower price point than our properties tend to be. And they go after, quite honestly, a different kind of customer. So, I think it's a great add-on for Hyatt, and I don't think it's any negative for us whatsoever.

它們是非常大的房產，有很多很多的房間。它們傳統上透過旅行社管道銷售，而且價格比我們的房產低。老實說，他們追求的是不同類型的客戶。所以，我認為這對凱悅來說是一個很好的附加服務，而且我不認為這對我們有任何負面影響。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Tyler Batory, Oppenheimer.

泰勒·巴托里，奧本海默。

Thank you. Good morning. So, I want to talk through a little bit more the commentary on Jamaica. And the first question I have is, it sounds like you've been able to build some occupancy with lower ADR. Are other resorts in the market doing the same thing?

謝謝。早安.所以，我想多談談對牙買加的評論。我的第一個問題是，聽起來你們已經能夠以較低的平均房價建立一些入住率。市場上的其他度假村也在做同樣的事情嗎？

Can you talk about the competitive environment in Jamaica? I don't want to suggest that there's potentially a race to the bottom sort of dynamic here. But how do you think about rebuilding some of the ADR and price as the demand starts to come back?

能談談牙買加的競爭環境嗎？我不想暗示這裡可能存在逐底競爭的動態。但是，隨著需求開始回升，您如何看待重建部分 ADR 和價格？

I don't think there's a race to the bottom. It's an absolutely fair question. As we moved throughout this year and started seeing that a lot of the promotional activities that were more short term in nature were having, just as you would expect, a short-term impact.

我不認為有逐底競爭。這是一個絕對公平的問題。隨著今年的進展，我們開始發現許多短期促銷活動正如您所期望的那樣產生了短期影響。

And then also Bruce had a lot of discussions with other owner operators. I'm sure you can guess who they are in that destination. A lot of people were feeling the same pressures. We also started looking around seeing that there were one or two new resorts, not massive, but new resorts that came into markets nearby some of ours at lower introductory rates and that lower price was moving demand.

然後布魯斯也與其他業主經營者進行了很多討論。我相信你能猜到那個目的地的他們是誰。很多人都感受到了同樣的壓力。我們也開始環顧四周，發現有一兩個新的度假村，規模不大，但新度假村以較低的介紹價格進入我們附近的市場，較低的價格正在推動需求。

And so, we said, look, let's just take a step back and figure out at what price point can we move our occupancy from using round numbers, 60% to back into the 70s. And we found that with a 10% to 15% ADR decline.

因此，我們說，讓我們退後一步，弄清楚在什麼價格點上我們可以將使用整數 60% 的入住率恢復到 70 年代。我們發現 ADR 下降了 10% 到 15%。

And so, the nice part is you're building occupancy back up, you start to see it pacing flat from an occupancy perspective kind of into the high season, which is nice and then allows the revenue management teams to start to yield manage from there.

因此，好的部分是，您正在恢復入住率，您開始看到從入住率的角度來看，進入旺季時，它的步伐持平，這很好，然後允許收入管理團隊從那裡開始進行收益管理。

To be clear, Q1 will still be a headwind just because we had a great Q1 and ADRs will still be down because of the travel advisory. But the hope is, and I think a great fantastic goal would be by the time you're exiting 2025, perhaps you've started to build EBITDA back up again, albeit at lower margins.

需要明確的是，第一季仍將是一個阻力，因為我們第一季表現出色，而且由於旅行建議，ADR 仍將下降。但希望是，我認為一個偉大而夢幻的目標是，當你退出 2025 年時，也許你已經開始重新建立 EBITDA，儘管利潤率較低。

Obviously, we have lower ADRs, higher occupancies, it's going to eat into margin. But then you exit 2025 with a good base of occupancy, potentially better and then hopefully have the ability to yield up from there. It's nothing scientific other than just getting heads in the beds again.

顯然，我們的平均房價較低，入住率較高，這將侵蝕利潤。但到 2025 年，你會擁有良好的入住率基礎，甚至可能會更好，然後希望有能力從那裡開始獲得收益。除了再次把頭埋進床上之外，這沒有任何科學根據。

And as Bruce mentioned in his prepared remarks as well, there is something to be said about the relative value this will start to show versus our other destinations. People still want to go and like, okay, Jamaica for what it's worth is how many dollars cheaper to go for a great experience at any one of the resorts there versus heading to the DR, Mexico. Let's check it out. So, we've seen this play out over time, and hopefully, we're on the right path here. So, this is step one.

正如布魯斯在他準備好的演講中提到的那樣，與我們其他目的地相比，這裡將開始顯示出相對價值，有一些話要說。人們仍然想去牙買加，因為牙買加的價值在於，去那裡的任何一個度假村享受美好體驗比前往墨西哥DR便宜多少美元。我們來看看吧。所以，隨著時間的推移，我們已經看到了這種情況的發生，希望我們走在正確的道路上。所以，這是第一步。

Okay, great. Follow-up question on airlift, into your markets. I don't know if you can talk a little bit more about what you're seeing, especially early next year, not sure if there's been some movements in terms of seats going from different markets, just given some of the dynamics and some of the demand trends in Jamaica, too.

好的，太好了。關於空運到您的市場的後續問題。我不知道你是否可以多談談你所看到的情況，尤其是明年初，不確定來自不同市場的席位是否有一些變化，只是考慮到一些動態和一些變化牙買加的需求趨勢也是如此。

Yes, I mean, as you saw and you can follow the same data, the airlift into our markets in prior to and then through Q1 was quite robust. It started to decline across generally all our markets in Q2, basically low single digits year-over-year, but still very healthy versus 2019. And basically, essentially, what we saw was airlines start to normalize capacity. Based on the scheduled seats into the destinations in Q4 and Q1 next year, that decline is stabilizing, and it still remains at those healthy levels versus 2019.

是的，我的意思是，正如您所看到的，您可以遵循相同的數據，在第一季之前和之後的整個市場空運都非常強勁。第二季度，我們所有市場的銷售額普遍開始下降，年比基本上是低個位數，但與 2019 年相比仍然非常健康。基本上，我們看到的是航空公司開始讓運力正常化。根據明年第四季和第一季飛往目的地的預定座位數，這一下降趨勢正在趨於穩定，與 2019 年相比仍保持在健康水平。

So, I think what you'll see is, again, based on what is scheduled, Q3 was the bottom and then Q4 is starting to work its way back up, which is nice to see. I do think load factors should be able to help mitigate the magnitude of this decline. People have asked us too, Tyler, you've seen airlift go down into Cancun, why aren't you seeing massive hits to your resorts?

因此，我認為您將再次看到，根據計劃，第三季度是底部，然後第四季度開始回升，這是很高興看到的。我確實認為負載率應該能夠幫助減輕這種下降的幅度。人們也問我們，泰勒，你已經看到空運進入坎昆，為什麼你的度假村沒有看到大規模的攻擊？

Part of it is just the basic where our assets are located in the prime locations in the hotel zone, very, very close to the airport or at most, 45 minutes away when you think about our assets in Playa del Carmen. So maybe we've been stealing share from some of those folks that are further away, further into loom or places far to the north like Harris and others.

其中一部分只是基本條件，我們的資產位於酒店區的黃金地段，非常非常靠近機場，或最多 45 分鐘路程，當您考慮我們在普拉亞德爾卡曼的資產時。因此，也許我們一直在從那些更遠的人那裡竊取份額，更深入的織布機或遙遠的北方地方，如哈里斯和其他人。

But also at the same time, going back to the original decision by Bruce and the team to focus on ADR and not having our hotels sit at 90% full coming out of COVID. And so, if there are declines in airlift into the markets and our relative value that we present to the customer still resonates, we're fine with it because we can still get 70% to 80% occupancies without blinking an eye.

但同時，回到 Bruce 和團隊最初的決定，專注於 ADR，不要讓我們的飯店在新冠疫情期間保持 90% 的滿座率。因此，如果進入市場的空運量下降，而我們向客戶呈現的相對價值仍然引起共鳴，我們也不會介意，因為我們仍然可以毫不眨眼地獲得 70% 到 80% 的入住率。

Okay. And then the last question is just housekeeping on FX, and I appreciate the numbers and the details in the guidance. When we look at the EBITDA impact that you provided for Q4 and for 2025, what sort of spot rate is assumed for that impact? How much of your 2025 exposure is hedged at this point? And is there an easy way to think about the potential sensitivity to EBITDA depending on what might happen with the currency?

好的。最後一個問題只是外匯方面的內務管理，我很欣賞指南中的數字和細節。當我們查看您提供的第四季度和 2025 年 EBITDA 影響時，假設該影響採用什麼樣的即期匯率？此時您的 2025 年風險敞口中有多少是被對沖的？是否有一種簡單的方法可以根據貨幣可能發生的情況來考慮 EBITDA 的潛在敏感度？

So, let's start with Q4. The midpoint of our guidance assumes 19, which is slightly stronger than spot rates. The peso went on a wild ride on Tuesday during the election, but basically finished flat and it's a little stronger today, but still above 19. So, if the FX weakens or gets stays where it is or gets closer to 20, that kind of helps lead to outperformance in our guidance range. When you think about next year, we hedged -- roughly it's not a perfect number because as you can imagine, the quantum of Mexican peso expenses moves as we forecast out, but we hedged roughly 70% to 75% of our Mexican peso-denominated expense base.

那麼，讓我們從第四季開始。我們指導的中點假設為 19，略高於即期匯率。週二大選期間，比索大幅上漲，但基本上持平，今天稍強，但仍高於 19。因此，如果匯價走弱或保持在當前水準或接近 20，這將有助於導致其表現優於我們的指導範圍。當你想到明年時，我們進行了對沖——大致上這不是一個完美的數字，因為正如你可以想像的那樣，墨西哥比索支出的數量按照我們的預測而變化，但我們對沖了大約70% 到75 % 的墨西哥比索計價資金費用基礎。

And the rates that we put in at the time we did it in August, obviously, it was a curve, but it essentially is a weighted average of a little over 19.5% for the full year. So based on that 19.5% and based on where the rates were this year and where we expect them to remain for the rest of this year, that's how you get to roughly $12 million to $17 million, so call it, $15 million of FX tailwind as you walk into next year. So roughly, the sensitivity is 1 point change in MXN is roughly $2.75 million of EBITDA per quarter on an unhedged basis.

我們在 8 月制定的利率顯然是一條曲線，但本質上是全年略高於 19.5% 的加權平均值。因此，基於 19.5% 以及今年的利率以及我們預計今年剩餘時間的利率，這就是你如何獲得大約 1200 萬至 1700 萬美元，所以稱之為 1500 萬美元的外匯順風當你走進明年。粗略地說，敏感度為 MXN 變化 1 個百分點，在未對沖的基礎上，每季 EBITDA 約為 275 萬美元。

Great. Okay. All right. That's all for me. Appreciate that detail. Thank you.

偉大的。好的。好的。這就是我的全部。欣賞這個細節。謝謝。

Chad Beynon, Macquarie.

查德貝農，麥格理。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Ryan, you talked about CapEx this year, $100 million to $120 million. Can you frame out roughly what it would look like in '25 based on the Zilara project? And then how does that fit into the share repurchases, which have been running really strong lately. Bruce, I think you said you have $50 million left, but just help us there on the capital allocation side, please. Thanks.

嗨，早安。感謝您提出我的問題。Ryan，您談到了今年的資本支出，1 億至 1.2 億美元。您能否根據 Zilara 專案大致勾勒出 25 年的情況？那麼這與最近表現強勁的股票回購有何關係。Bruce，我想你說過你還剩下 5000 萬美元，但請在資本分配方面幫助我們。謝謝。

Yeah. Yeah, I mean the Board has been very supportive of re-upping our authorizations whenever needed. And they're still, just like Bruce and I, big fans of continuing to purchase back our stock. Our expectation for next year is that the overall CapEx spend is not too dissimilar from this year because you'll be finishing out the work in the Pacific, but then beginning the project in Cancun, which on a per key basis, we're still working through the numbers.

是的。是的，我的意思是董事會非常支持在需要時重新增加我們的授權。就像布魯斯和我一樣，他們仍然是繼續回購我們股票的忠實粉絲。我們對明年的預期是，總體資本支出與今年並沒有太大不同，因為您將在太平洋地區完成工作，然後在坎昆開始該項目，從每個關鍵的角度來看，我們仍然通過數字進行工作。

But it's obviously higher just because it's a full renovation and bringing a property to a pretty nice and wonderful high level. So, we expect roughly the same quantum. Again, the nice part is that our free cash flow generation remains incredibly strong. We're still converting anywhere from 40% to 50%, sometimes 55% of our EBITDA into free cash flow after normal fixed expenses. So, we have the luxury today of continuing to do to do both.

但它顯然更高，因為它是一次全面翻新，並將房產提升到相當漂亮和美妙的高水平。因此，我們期望大致相同的量子。同樣，好的一點是我們的自由現金流生成仍然非常強勁。扣除正常固定費用後，我們仍然將 40% 到 50%、有時甚至 55% 的 EBITDA 轉換為自由現金流。因此，今天我們有幸繼續做到這兩點。

Obviously, if something changes in the macro, we'd have to rethink it. But our consistent stance has been we want to be consistent buyers of our stock and continue to thoughtfully reduce our float as we continue to invest in our existing property base. And the nice part, too, is you've seen us sell some of the noncore assets. So that's great.

顯然，如果宏觀發生變化，我們就必須重新考慮。但我們一貫的立場是，我們希望成為我們股票的持續買家，並在繼續投資現有房地產基礎的同時，繼續深思熟慮地減少我們的流通量。令人高興的是，您已經看到我們出售了一些非核心資產。那太好了。

And so really, once you think about finishing the work in the Pacific and once, we get through the Zilara renovation next year, the portfolio is largely in pretty good shape, short of regular maintenance CapEx that you do annually.

所以說真的，一旦你考慮完成太平洋地區的工作，一旦我們明年完成 Zilara 改造，投資組合基本上處於相當好的狀態，缺乏你每年進行的定期維護資本支出。

And I just want to emphasize what Ryan said. It's a very key plank of our strategy, and we intend to continue to do it. We have a good amount of cash right now on our balance sheet. As Ryan said, we sold noncore assets. We have a couple more noncore assets to sell. We take that capital, we redeploy it into the CapEx, and we really target the free cash flow for the stock buybacks. But we've been buying at a very consistent and significant level, and we intend to continue doing that.

我只是想強調瑞安所說的話。這是我們策略的一個非常關鍵的部分，我們打算繼續這樣做。我們的資產負債表上現在有大量現金。正如瑞安所說，我們出售了非核心資產。我們還有一些非核心資產要出售。我們利用這些資本，將其重新部署到資本支出中，我們真正的目標是股票回購的自由現金流。但我們一直在以非常一致和重要的水平進行購買，並且我們打算繼續這樣做。

Okay, great. Thank you. And then can we just talk roughly about some of the expense components to help us frame out margins, maybe looking at that farther out target, I know you went over how the peso impacts margins and what that benefit should be.

好的，太好了。謝謝。然後我們可以粗略地討論一些費用組成部分，以幫助我們制定利潤率，也許看看更遠的目標，我知道您討論了比索如何影響利潤率以及收益應該是什麼。

But just as we think about some of the other items, has anything really changed in, let's call it, the past six months and based on where we're seeing energy and utility prices and maybe just kind of cost of food, et cetera. Is there an opportunity to improve margins on a same-store basis once some of the disruption is complete? Thank you.

但正如我們思考其他一些項目一樣，根據我們所看到的能源和公用事業價格，也許只是食品成本等，在過去六個月中，我們可以稱之為真正的變化嗎？一旦部分中斷完成，是否有機會提升同店利潤？謝謝。

Yeah, I believe so. I mean we still continue to make headwinds, particularly on F&B and procurement. The team has been a tremendous asset to us here, taking advantage of our size and scale and our buying power. So, you've heard me talk about it before, but F&B is roughly 20-ish, a little less percent of our cost basket and the efforts thus far have resulted in 20 basis points to 30 basis points in annualized cost savings permanently.

是的，我相信是這樣。我的意思是，我們仍然繼續遇到阻力，特別是在餐飲和採購方面。團隊利用我們的規模和購買力，對我們來說是一筆巨大的資產。所以，你以前聽過我談論過這個問題，但餐飲大約占我們成本籃子的 20 左右，略低一些，而迄今為止的努力已經使年化成本永久節省了 20 個基點到 30 個基點。

And I think we're only 30% to 40% of the way through our addressable base. So, there's more to be done there, and we expect to continue to focus on that area. You heard us talk about we're lapping the impacts of some of these now, and you'll see us lap those impacts in Q4 of this year.

我認為我們的可尋址基礎只完成了 30% 到 40%。因此，這方面還有更多工作要做，我們希望繼續關注該領域。您聽到我們談論我們現在正在研究其中一些影響，您將看到我們在今年第四季研究這些影響。

But starting in the middle of last year, we started to reprioritize some of our staffing models and rethink them coming out of COVID. We redid our operations team in Mexico, brought in a new Head of Operations, who's been a key component to rethinking our staffing because labor remains still a headwind. We still every year, contest with minimum wage increases or union negotiations or any government-mandated changes because of a change in President or Prime Minister or policy or whatever.

但從去年年中開始，我們開始重新調整一些人員配置模式的優先順序，並重新考慮它們是否能擺脫新冠疫情的影響。我們重新組建了墨西哥的營運團隊，聘請了一位新的營運主管，他是重新考慮我們人員配置的關鍵組成部分，因為勞動力仍然是一個阻力。由於總統或總理或政策或其他原因的變化，我們仍然每年都會與最低工資增長或工會談判或任何政府強制的變化進行競爭。

So, it's still going to be just as important, but we still expect F&B to be helpful and labor to be a headwind. And labor is like roughly 30%-ish of our cost basket. So, something we have to contest with. FX is roughly, to your question, 65% to 70% of our overall OpEx. And so, it does play a big impact in what we do.

因此，它仍然同樣重要，但我們仍然預期餐飲會有所幫助，而勞動力會成為阻力。勞動力約佔我們成本籃的 30% 左右。所以，我們必須與之抗衡。對於您的問題，外匯大約占我們整體營運支出的 65% 到 70%。因此，它確實對我們的工作產生了很大的影響。

And so that's why our focus has been and the way we speak to everyone in the investment community about our margins on a constant currency basis and why we wanted to enter into these hedges to at least remove the volatility on either end and make it a little more predictable because these last couple of years have been more volatile than my entire career at this company, which has been since it was incepted in 2006.

因此，這就是為什麼我們的重點一直是，也是我們向投資界的每個人談論我們在固定貨幣基礎上的利潤率的方式，以及為什麼我們希望進行這些對沖，以至少消除兩端的波動性並使其稍微小一點。

So, it's been a little bit more difficult to wade through. But I think if we keep focusing on F&B and procurement and hopefully do our best with labor, we should be able to at least maintain that roughly mid-single-digit ADR hurdle rate to maintain margins on a constant currency basis.

所以，要渡過難關就有點困難了。但我認為，如果我們繼續專注於餐飲和採購，並希望在勞動力方面盡力而為，我們應該至少能夠維持大約中個位數的 ADR 門檻利率，以維持在恆定貨幣基礎上的利潤率。

Excellent, thanks Ryan. Appreciate it.

太棒了，謝謝瑞安。欣賞它。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Bruce Wardinski for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回布魯斯·沃丁斯基（Bruce Wardinski）發表閉幕詞。

Great, thanks everybody. It was a good quarter for us. You know, we're looking forward to continuing the strategy that we outlined today and driving value for shareholders. Thank you very much for being a part of our call today.

太好了，謝謝大家。這對我們來說是一個美好的季度。您知道，我們期待繼續執行我們今天概述的策略並為股東創造價值。非常感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。