Prologis, Inc. (PLD) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to the Prologis third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Justin Meng, Global Head of IR and Strategic Initiatives. Thank you. You may begin.

    各位好,歡迎參加 Prologis 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位,本次會議將被錄音。現在很榮幸為各位介紹本次會議主持人:投資人關係與策略倡議全球主管 Justin Meng。謝謝。您可以開始了。

  • Justin Meng - enior Vice President, Head of Investor Relations

    Justin Meng - enior Vice President, Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Joining us today are Dan Letter, CEO; Tim Arndt, CFO; and Chris Caton, Managing Director. I'd like to note that this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding our outlook, expectations and future performance. These statements are based on current assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

    謝謝接線員,各位早安。歡迎參加我們 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與會者包括執行長 Dan Letter、財務長 Tim Arndt,以及董事總經理 Chris Caton。我想提醒各位,本次電話會議將包含符合聯邦證券法定義的前瞻性陳述,包括關於我們展望、預期與未來表現的陳述。這些陳述係基於目前假設,並受風險與不確定性影響,可能導致實際結果與所述內容出現重大差異。

  • Please refer to our SEC filings and third quarter earnings press release for a discussion of these risks. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Additionally, during the call, we will discuss certain financial measures such as FFO and EBITDA that are non-GAAP. And in accordance with Reg G, we have provided a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our third quarter earnings press release and supplemental. Both are available on our website at www.prologis.com.

    關於這些風險的討論,請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件以及第三季財報新聞稿。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。此外,在本次電話會議中,我們將討論某些非 GAAP 的財務衡量指標,例如 FFO 與 EBITDA。並依據 Reg G,我們已在第三季財報新聞稿與補充資料中,提供與最直接可比 GAAP 指標的調節表。兩者皆可於我們網站 www.prologis.com 取得。

  • And with that, I will hand the call over to Dan.

    接下來,我把電話交給 Dan。

  • Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Justin, and good morning, everyone. The third quarter was another strong example of our business model at work. Operations were excellent. We signed 60 million square feet of leases and fully replenished our pipeline, giving us clear visibility into what our customers need. We also remained active deploying and recycling capital and are on track for $15 billion of activity this year.

    謝謝你,Justin,各位早安。第三季再次充分展現我們商業模式的運作成效。營運表現非常出色。我們簽訂了 6,000 萬平方英尺的租約,並完全補足了我們的案源管線,使我們能清楚掌握客戶需求。我們也持續積極進行資本投放與資產循環,今年的相關活動金額可望達到 150 億美元,進度符合預期。

  • We reached another important milestone during the quarter. On September 28, SEGRO shareholders overwhelmingly approved the combination of Prologis and SEGRO. Following completion, we will have a 363 million square-foot operating portfolio in Europe with greater scale to serve customers and a broader set of development opportunities across logistics and data centers.

    本季我們也達成另一項重要里程碑。9 月 28 日,SEGRO 股東以壓倒性票數通過 Prologis 與 SEGRO 的合併案。交易完成後,我們在歐洲將擁有 3.63 億平方英尺的營運資產組合,規模更大、能更好地服務客戶,並在物流與資料中心領域擁有更廣泛的開發機會。

  • We appreciate the constructive engagement with the SEGRO leadership team and look forward to closing the transaction. Before Tim walks you through the quarter, I want to spend a few minutes on the current environment, especially with the recent move in interest rates and how Prologis is positioned.

    我們感謝 SEGRO 領導團隊的建設性互動,並期待完成交易交割。在 Tim 帶各位回顧本季之前,我想先花幾分鐘談談目前環境,特別是近期利率變動,以及 Prologis 的因應與定位。

  • Operating fundamentals are healthy, and we remain constructive on the outlook. Most of our customers are operating efficiently. So incremental growth in their businesses should translate into additional space requirements. At the same time, several long-term trends continue to drive demand for logistics real estate. E-commerce, advanced manufacturing and the build-out of the data center supply chain are all critical to the modern economy.

    營運基本面依然健康,我們對展望仍持正向看法。我們的大多數客戶營運效率良好。因此,他們業務的增量成長應會轉化為額外的空間需求。同時,多項長期趨勢仍持續推動物流不動產需求。電子商務、先進製造,以及資料中心供應鏈的建置,都是現代經濟的關鍵。

  • Taken together, we expect demand to remain resilient even in a higher rate environment. On the supply side, the bar for new development is going up. Construction costs are escalating, financing is more expensive and return requirements are trending higher. That makes projects harder to pencil at today's rents. All else equal, we expect fewer starts and a more favorable supply environment.

    綜合來看,即使在較高利率環境下,我們預期需求仍將保持韌性。在供給端,新開發的門檻正在提高。施工成本上升、融資成本更高,且報酬要求呈上升趨勢。這使得在當前租金水準下,專案更難以達到可行的財務測算。在其他條件相同下,我們預期新開工將減少,供給環境將更為有利。

  • That creates an attractive set up for rents. In a balanced market, logistics rents should grow above inflation over time. Today, the rents needed to justify new construction have expanded to 27% above our current market levels. That leaves meaningful room for rents to grow before new supply makes economic sense. That said, the capital markets backdrop has become more challenging.

    這為租金帶來具吸引力的布局。在供需平衡的市場中,物流租金長期而言應可高於通膨成長。目前,為了使新建案具備合理性所需的租金,已擴大至較我們現行市場水準高出 27%。這代表在新增供給具備經濟合理性之前,租金仍有相當可觀的成長空間。不過,資本市場的背景已變得更具挑戰。

  • We think the recent move in rates will slow transaction activity and could put some pressure on values. Our bar for allocating capital was already high. And in response, we've raised it even further. But the fundamentals of logistics real estate remain strong and our balance sheet gives us the flexibility to invest through changing market conditions. We also have an enormous opportunity in data centers where our land, power and development capabilities give us multiple ways to create value.

    我們認為近期利率上升將放緩交易活動,並可能對資產價值造成一些壓力。我們在資本配置上的門檻原本就很高。因應之下,我們已進一步提高門檻。但物流不動產的基本面仍然強勁,而我們的資產負債表也讓我們能在市場條件變化下保持投資彈性。此外,在資料中心方面我們也擁有龐大機會;我們的土地、電力與開發能力,提供多種創造價值的途徑。

  • Add to that, what we can do across energy and strategic capital and we are well positioned to create value for our customers and shareholders. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

    再加上我們在能源與策略資本方面的能力,我們已具備良好條件,能為客戶與股東創造價值。接下來把電話交給 Tim。

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Dan. We delivered another excellent quarter with core FFO of $1.60 per share and $1.61 per share, excluding net promote expense. We ended the quarter with 95.6% occupancy, up 10 basis points from the second quarter with average occupancy of 95.1%, also a 10 basis point increase. Rent change on rollover was 38% on a net effective basis, adding $85 million of incremental NOI, and on a cash basis, rent change was 23%. Our lease mark-to-market ended the quarter at 16%, representing approximately $780 million of embedded NOI at spot rents.

    謝謝你,Dan。我們再度交出一個非常出色的季度,核心 FFO 為每股 1.60 美元;若排除淨提成(promote)費用,每股為 1.61 美元。本季期末入住率為 95.6%,較第二季上升 10 個基點;平均入住率為 95.1%,同樣上升 10 個基點。到期續租(rollover)的租金變動在淨有效基礎上為 38%,帶來 8,500 萬美元的 NOI 增量;以現金基礎計算,租金變動為 23%。本季期末,我們的租約市價差(lease mark-to-market)為 16%,以即期租金計算,代表約 7.8 億美元的內含 NOI。

  • This does not capture the additional upside we expect as inflation and today's elevated replacement cost rents flow through over the coming years. In aggregate, we delivered same-store NOI growth of 5.7% on a net effective basis and 5.9% on cash. Turning to capital deployment. We started $1 billion of development in the third quarter, bringing year-to-date starts to nearly $5 billion. Alongside this volume, we've been very successful in replenishing strategic land positions and upholding a long runway for value creation.

    這尚未反映我們預期在未來幾年,通膨與當前偏高的重置成本租金逐步反映後所帶來的額外上行空間。整體而言,我們的同店 NOI 成長在淨有效基礎上為 5.7%,以現金基礎計算為 5.9%。接著談資本投放。第三季我們啟動了 10 億美元的開發案,使年初至今的開工金額接近 50 億美元。在此規模之下,我們也非常成功地補充策略性土地部位,並維持長期的價值創造跑道。

  • We own or control sites to develop the next $40 billion of logistics development with a highly capital-efficient land strategy. We acquired $950 million of real estate during the quarter at an estimated discount to replacement cost of 20%. Our disposition activity totaled $310 million, and we continue to focus on the positive IRR spread we generate between acquisitions and dispositions, which now stands at 150 basis points year-to-date.

    透過高度資本效率的土地策略,我們擁有或控制可用於下一階段 400 億美元物流開發的基地。本季我們收購了 9.5 億美元的不動產,估計相較重置成本折價 20%。我們的處分活動合計 3.1 億美元;我們持續聚焦於收購與處分之間所創造的正向 IRR 利差,今年截至目前該利差為 150 個基點。

  • In terms of data centers, the increasing difficulty of powering and entitling sites is certainly adding scarcity value to our portfolio, particularly alongside exceptionally strong customer demand. Our pipeline currently totals 5.8 gigawatts, including 1.7 of secured power and 4.1 in advanced stages.

    就資料中心而言,取得供電與完成用地許可(entitling)的難度日益提高,確實為我們的資產組合增添稀缺性價值,尤其是在客戶需求異常強勁的背景下更為明顯。我們目前的管線總量為 5.8 吉瓦,其中 1.7 吉瓦已取得確保的電力,另有 4.1 吉瓦處於較進階階段。

  • We are engaged with customers across the pipeline with letters of intent covering approximately 1 gigawatt, much of which we expect to start in 2027. Turning to market conditions. The recovery in logistics demand continues to gain momentum. US net absorption totaled 63 million square feet in the third quarter, a healthy level and consistent with what we view as normalized annual range of 230 million to 240 million square feet.

    我們正與管線中的客戶積極洽談,意向書(LOI)涵蓋約 1 吉瓦,其中多數預期將於 2027 年開工。接著談市場狀況。物流需求的復甦持續增強動能。美國第三季淨吸納量合計 6,300 萬平方英尺,屬於健康水準,亦符合我們所認為的常態化年度區間:2.3 億至 2.4 億平方英尺。

  • This further underscores the growing improvement we've been highlighting for nearly two years. Market vacancy declined 10 basis points to 7.1%, and market rents increased another 50 basis points, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive rent growth. Across the US demand is broadening across geographies and size categories with markets such as Houston, Dallas and Atlanta continuing to lead. At the same time, conditions are improving in markets that have been slower to recover. Southern California is steadily improving.

    這進一步凸顯了我們近兩年來一直強調的持續改善趨勢。市場空置率下降10個基點至7.1%,市場租金再上升50個基點,連續第三季實現正向租金成長。全美需求正跨地域與不同規模類別擴大,休士頓、達拉斯與亞特蘭大等市場仍持續領先。同時,先前復甦較慢的市場狀況也在改善。南加州正穩步改善。

  • Northern New Jersey is picking up momentum, and the San Francisco Bay Area stands out for its high occupancy and strong rent growth, all creating potential for future outperformance. Consistent with prior quarters, the recovery is being led by notable strength across e-commerce, advanced manufacturing and the rapidly growing segment of customers supporting the data center supply chain. This customer segment represented approximately 10% of our new leasing globally and 17% in the US this quarter. We're seeing that demand translate into meaningful activity across several US.

    北新澤西州動能正在增強,而舊金山灣區以高入住率與強勁租金成長脫穎而出,皆為未來可能跑贏大盤創造條件。與前幾季一致,本輪復甦由電商、先進製造,以及支援資料中心供應鏈、快速成長的客戶族群所帶動,展現顯著強勢。本季該客戶族群約占我們全球新租賃的10%,在美國則占17%。我們看到這些需求正轉化為美國多個市場的實質活動。

  • markets that are geographically aligned with the data center buildout underway. Markets like Texas, Northern California, Northern Virginia, Arizona and select Midwest markets. Our current estimate is that these customers will require upwards of 150 million square feet of demand through the end of the decade for both the build-out and ongoing service of this new segment, a topic we're exploring in greater depth through research we plan to publish in the coming weeks.

    這些市場在地理位置上與正在進行的資料中心建置相互契合。例如德州、北加州、北維吉尼亞、亞利桑那,以及部分中西部市場。我們目前估計,至本十年末,這些客戶在此新興領域的建置與持續服務需求合計將超過1.5億平方英尺;我們計畫在未來幾週發布的研究中,對此主題進行更深入探討。

  • Beyond the US our global platform is designed to deepen customer relationships and expand value creation opportunity, but it is also key to delivering resilient, diversified operating performance. In this regard, Europe continues to show solid operating fundamentals.

    除美國之外,我們的全球平台旨在深化客戶關係並擴大價值創造機會,同時也是實現具韌性、分散化營運表現的關鍵。在此方面,歐洲的營運基本面仍然穩健。

  • Market vacancy has remained low at 5.3% and market rents increased 70 basis points during the quarter, now amounting to 275 basis points year-over-year. The Netherlands, U.K., Spain and Italy remain among the stronger markets for both rents and deployment opportunities. And across Latin America, Brazil continues to lead while Mexico is normalizing.

    市場空置率維持在低檔5.3%,本季市場租金上升70個基點,年增幅目前累計達275個基點。荷蘭、英國、西班牙與義大利仍是租金與投放(部署)機會相對較強的市場之一。而在拉丁美洲,巴西仍持續領先,墨西哥則正在回歸常態。

  • As we saw in the US even as market rents soften, Mexico's heightened lease mark-to-market is delivering strong rent change and same-store growth. Finally, in Japan, it is noteworthy that the higher rate and inflation environment is translating to growing market rents, aided by declining market vacancy.

    如同我們在美國所見,即使市場租金走軟,墨西哥較高的租約市價調整幅度(mark-to-market)仍帶來強勁的租金變動與同店成長。最後,在日本值得注意的是,較高利率與通膨環境正推動市場租金上升,並受惠於市場空置率下降。

  • Moving to capital markets US transaction volume is up 20% year-to-date. And for most of the year, risk appetite and pricing improved alongside operating fundamentals. Clearly, the market is now digesting the recent increase in treasury yields, and we are observing a wider bid-ask spread.

    轉向資本市場,美國交易量年初至今上升20%。且在今年大部分時間,風險偏好與定價隨著營運基本面改善而提升。顯然,市場目前正在消化近期美國公債殖利率上升的影響,我們也觀察到買賣價差擴大。

  • While investors contemplate re-underwriting exit cap rates, the corresponding reassessment for higher rents provides the potential to offset some pressure on values. We expect transaction volumes to moderate in the near term as buyers and sellers recalibrate, and while some short-term noise is likely, we believe the scarcity of high-quality assets with inflation plus growth characteristics will continue to attract global capital.

    在投資人考量重新承作(re-underwrite)退出資本化率之際,對應地重新評估更高租金,可能有助於抵消部分估值壓力。我們預期短期內交易量將趨於溫和,因買賣雙方需要重新校準;儘管短期雜訊可能存在,我們相信具備「通膨加成長」特性的高品質資產稀缺性,仍將持續吸引全球資金。

  • Turning to a brief update on SEGRO. As Dan mentioned, we are very pleased with the progress made during the quarter having reached agreement with the Board for a recommended deal and subsequently obtaining approval from the SEGRO shareholders. The transaction is now progressing through the required regulatory clearances, and we continue to expect it to close in the first half of 2027.

    接著簡要更新SEGRO的進展。如Dan所提,我們對本季取得的進展感到非常滿意:我們已與董事會就建議交易達成協議,並隨後取得SEGRO股東的核准。目前交易正依規定推進所需的監管核准流程,我們仍預期將於2027年上半年完成交割。

  • We also raised $2.4 billion of common equity during the quarter, completing an important part of the transaction's consideration. Further rounding out the balance sheet, we closed on approximately $1.3 billion in debt financing at an average rate of just under 4% during the quarter.

    我們也在本季募集24億美元普通股權資金,完成交易對價中一項重要部分。為進一步完善資產負債表,我們本季完成約13億美元的債務融資,平均利率略低於4%。

  • More broadly, while the abrupt shift in the interest rate environment presents challenges, we are fortunate to hold approximately 95% of our debt on a fixed rate basis with approximately eight years of average life remaining. Our debt metrics remain in excellent shape, and our liquidity at the end of the quarter was nearly $9 billion. Turning to guidance, which I'll review at our share.

    更廣泛而言,儘管利率環境的急劇轉變帶來挑戰,我們很幸運地有約95%的債務為固定利率,且平均剩餘年期約八年。我們的負債指標仍維持在極佳水準,本季末流動性接近90億美元。接著談指引,我將在我們的分享中進行說明。

  • First, in our operations, we are narrowing our forecast for average occupancy to a range of 95.25% to 95.50%. Our strong year-to-date performance in same-store growth is driving an increase to its range to 5.5% to 6% on a net effective basis and 7% to 7.5% on a cash basis. Strategic capital revenue, excluding promotes, is being revised to a range of $650 million to $660 million, reflecting a tempered view on asset management fees as well as the timing of some transaction-based fees, and G&A is now expected to range between $515 million to $525 million.

    首先,在營運方面,我們將平均入住率預測區間收斂至95.25%至95.50%。同店成長年初至今表現強勁,推動我們將其區間上調至:淨有效(net effective)基礎為5.5%至6%,現金(cash)基礎為7%至7.5%。策略性資本收入(不含分成獎酬/promotes)修正為6.5億至6.6億美元,反映我們對資產管理費較為保守的看法,以及部分交易型費用的時點;而一般及行政費用(G&A)目前預期介於5.15億至5.25億美元。

  • On capital deployment, we are increasing development starts on an owned and managed basis to a range of $6 billion to $6.75 billion. This increase is driven predominantly by our expectation for a very high fourth quarter of build-to-suit starts and all of the remaining activity will be in new logistics development.

    在資本投放方面,我們將自有與受託管理口徑的開發開工金額上調至60億至67.5億美元。此上調主要由我們預期第四季量身訂做(build-to-suit)開工將非常強勁所驅動,其餘活動將全部為新的物流開發。

  • In total and for the year, we expect build-to-suits to represent between 55% and 65% of the year's starts. We are increasing our acquisitions guidance to $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion, and expect contributions and dispositions to range from $3.5 billion to $4.75 billion. Putting it all together, we expect net earnings to range between $4.05 and $4.15 per share and core FFO is expected to range between $6.25 and $6.29 per share, both with and without promotes. In closing, our third quarter results confirm that our underlying business and market conditions remain strong. Demand is broad.

    全年合計而言,我們預期量身訂做案將占全年開工量的55%至65%。我們將收購指引上調至21億至23億美元,並預期出資與處分金額介於35億至47.5億美元。綜合以上,我們預期每股淨利介於4.05至4.15美元,核心FFO(營運資金)每股介於6.25至6.29美元,且上述數字在包含與不包含分成獎酬(promotes)兩種口徑下皆適用。最後,我們第三季結果確認,我們的基本面業務與市場環境仍然強勁。需求面廣泛。

  • Our portfolio is performing very well, and our land and power positions create significant opportunities for value creation. Underneath our global platform, strong balance sheet and prudent team position us to respond to changing conditions and invest with discipline in the opportunities ahead.

    我們的投資組合表現非常出色,而我們在土地與電力方面的布局創造了顯著的價值創造機會。在全球平台、強健資產負債表與審慎團隊的支撐下,我們具備因應環境變化的能力,並能以紀律把握前方機會進行投資。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to the operator for your questions. Operator?

    接下來,我把電話會議交給接線員,開始提問環節。接線員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

    Michael Goldsmith,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

    Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

  • You've now had several straight quarters of positive rent growth, vacancies down to 7.1%, and you're describing normalized absorption of roughly 230 million to 240 million square feet annually. At the same time, replacement cost rents are now 27% above market rents, making new supply more difficult. I think you said 1.7% of stock in the first quarter on construction. So if absorption stays around this normalized level, how quickly can vacancy tighten from here? And when do you think that would translate into more meaningful acceleration in pricing power?

    你們已連續好幾季出現正向租金成長,空置率降至7.1%,並且你們描述的常態化吸納量約為每年2.3億至2.4億平方英尺。同時,重置成本租金目前比市場租金高出27%,使得新增供給更具難度。我記得你們提到第一季在建量約占存量的1.7%。因此,如果吸納量維持在這個常態水準,空置率從現在起能以多快速度收緊?你們認為何時會轉化為更明顯的定價能力加速?

  • Christopher Caton - Managing Director, Global Head - Strategy & Analytics

    Christopher Caton - Managing Director, Global Head - Strategy & Analytics

  • Michael, it's Chris. That's a really nice way to ask for 2027 forecast of market conditions. Let me give you a few pieces, and I'll just underline some points you're making. And then I'll let you make your own inferences. And you're right, you're right.

    Michael,我是 Chris。你用這種方式來詢問 2027 年市場狀況的預測,真的很不錯。我先給你幾個重點,也會把你提出的一些觀點再特別劃線強調一下。然後就讓你自己去做推論。而且你說得對,你說得對。

  • The facts on the ground are constructive as we look into 2027, but it's just early to share a forecast. And I want to underline, it's not just in the third quarter, it's all year that net absorption has been running at 240 million square feet on an annualized basis. And as we take a sense of where demand is running today, based on the proprietary data we have, so I'm looking at our pipeline and looking at our customer conversations and the progression through the pipeline, that's all very promising. And indeed, vacancies moved down from a peak of 7.5% at 7.1%. It's on pace to go to seven by the end of the year.

    展望 2027 年,現場的基本面事實是偏正向的,但現在就分享預測仍然太早。我想特別強調,不只是第三季,而是全年淨吸納量一直以年化 2.4 億平方英尺的速度在跑。而當我們用自有的專有數據來判斷目前需求的運行狀況——我看我們的案源管線、看我們與客戶的對話,以及在管線中的推進進度——這些都非常令人鼓舞。而且確實,空置率已從 7.5% 的高點降到 7.1%。照這個進度,年底有望降到 7%。

  • So there's really nice momentum there. And the replacement cost rents do set up for above-inflation growth over time. I think the detail to add that you don't have is we're already seeing it in some markets. So places like Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix, Indianapolis, Northern California, these are all markets that are on pace to have market rent growth of 5% to 6% this year. And that's even with vacancies in the mid- to high 7s in some of these geographies all this year.

    所以這裡的動能非常不錯。而替代成本租金(replacement cost rents)確實為長期高於通膨的成長奠定基礎。我想補充一個你可能還沒掌握的細節:我們在某些市場已經看到這種情況。像達拉斯、休士頓、亞特蘭大、鳳凰城、印第安納波利斯、北加州,這些市場今年的市場租金成長率都有望達到 5% 到 6%。而且即便在其中一些地區,今年空置率整年都落在 7% 中段到高 7% 的水準,仍然如此。

  • So what's really made the difference for those cities is just healthy demand rather than needing vacancy to go to 3%, 4% or 5%. And so that's -- those are some facts I would consider if I were to use this to make my own determination.

    所以真正讓這些城市出現差異的,是健康的需求,而不是必須等空置率降到 3%、4% 或 5%。因此,如果我要用這些資訊來做自己的判斷,這些就是我會納入考量的一些事實。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Griffin, Evercore ISI.

    Michael Griffin,Evercore ISI。

  • Michael Griffin - Analyst

    Michael Griffin - Analyst

  • Dan, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that the bar for new development is higher, but you modestly increased the development starts guidance. Just wondering how you can marry those two aspects? Do you think Prologis is in a better position to execute on developments given maybe a more favorable basis in your land, more efficiencies on the cost side. Just curious any additional thoughts there as it relates to maybe the view and costs related to developments versus what seems like incremental positivity on your own starts guidance.

    Dan,我記得你在事先準備的發言中提到,新開發案的門檻變高了,但你們卻小幅上調了開發動工(development starts)的指引。想請教你如何把這兩點結合起來理解?你是否認為 Prologis 在執行開發方面處於更有利的位置,例如土地成本基礎更有利、或成本端效率更高?也想聽聽你對於開發的觀點,以及與成本相關的看法:一方面門檻提高,另一方面你們自己的動工指引似乎又更偏正向。

  • Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Well, first of all, we had a -- we've had a pretty strong year of start so far on -- in spec. This was a pretty big spec quarter actually with 80% of our starts in spec. But that being said, you heard in Tim's script, we expect to end the year at 55% to 65% of the year in build-to-suits. And so we have a very large build-to-suit pipeline.

    是的。首先,我們今年到目前為止的動工表現相當強勁,尤其是在投機性開發(spec)方面。其實這一季是相當大的 spec 季度,我們的動工有 80% 是 spec。但即便如此,你也在 Tim 的講稿裡聽到,我們預期年底全年會有 55% 到 65% 的動工是量身訂做案(build-to-suit)。因此我們有一個非常龐大的 build-to-suit 管線。

  • It's actually probably about 20% to 25% larger than it was at this time last year. And these are big, lumpy deals. And so we expect to have a pretty big quarter in the fourth quarter here in build-to-suit. So that's what you're seeing come through these numbers.

    實際上,這個管線規模大概比去年此時大了 20% 到 25%。而且這些都是大型、且具不均勻性(lumpy)的交易。因此我們預期第四季在 build-to-suit 方面會是一個相當大的季度。所以你在這些數字裡看到的就是這些因素的反映。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vikram Malhotra, Mizuho.

    Vikram Malhotra,Mizuho。

  • Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

    Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

  • I guess just maybe two parts to it. One, can you just describe what led to the top end of occupancy guide tick down and how confident you are in kind of building occupancy over the next few months into '27? And just related to that, like as the occupancy builds, where are you seeing like sustained evidence of market rent growth that might be, say, mid-single digits?

    我想大概分兩個部分。第一,你能否說明是什麼原因導致入住率(occupancy)指引的上緣小幅下調?以及你對於未來幾個月一路到 2027 年、逐步提升入住率的信心如何?另外也相關地問:隨著入住率回升,你在哪些地方看到市場租金成長有持續性的證據,可能達到例如中個位數(mid-single digits)的水準?

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Vikram, it's Tim. So the occupancy -- I guess it is a drop technically on the midpoint. It's just really -- I see it as a tightening of the range. We had a range on both it and same-store growth. And now as we see the fourth quarter coming into focus, we can just see where it's going to land on a full year basis.

    Vikram,我是 Tim。關於入住率——我想從中點來看,技術上確實是下降。但我其實把它視為區間收斂。我們原本在入住率與同店成長(same-store growth)上都有給一個區間。而現在隨著第四季逐漸明朗,我們就能更清楚它全年會落在哪裡。

  • And so the occupancy range on an average basis reflects that. The important output here is clearly same-store growth, which is the uptick. So the focus should be there, that's the dollars and cents of the business. We feel very good about what's implicit in that, meaning further occupancy build through the fourth quarter, we ended very strong here at the end of the third quarter. And as Dan mentioned, the pipeline is very full in terms of leasing, in particular, as we parse through agreement stage, just how advanced a lot of deals look, we feel great about that.

    因此,平均基礎下的入住率區間也反映了這點。這裡更重要的輸出其實很明確是同店成長,也就是這次上修的部分。所以焦點應該放在那裡,那才是這門生意的真金白銀。我們對其中隱含的內容感到非常有信心,也就是第四季入住率會進一步提升;第三季末我們的收尾非常強。而且如 Dan 所提到,就出租而言,我們的管線非常滿;特別是當我們拆解到協議階段,看到很多交易的成熟度很高,我們對此感覺非常好。

  • I'll pass to Chris on the market rent question.

    我把市場租金的問題交給 Chris。

  • Christopher Caton - Managing Director, Global Head - Strategy & Analytics

    Christopher Caton - Managing Director, Global Head - Strategy & Analytics

  • Sure. So market rent, I hit many of the American markets that are enjoying that sort of mid-single digits in growth. So it's Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix, and the NorCal, and the other Midwest markets as well. But it's also true internationally.

    好的。關於市場租金,我剛才提到許多美國市場正享有那種中個位數的成長。包括達拉斯、休士頓、亞特蘭大、鳳凰城、北加州,以及其他中西部市場。但同樣地,國際市場也確實如此。

  • Brazil certainly is seeing probably the best momentum globally. And then in Europe, I'd point to the Netherlands as having the best rent dynamics.

    巴西無疑是全球動能最強的市場之一,甚至可能是最強。而在歐洲,我會指出荷蘭的租金動態最佳。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Catherwood, U.S. Bancorp BTIG.

    Tom Catherwood,U.S. Bancorp BTIG。

  • Thomas Catherwood - Equity Analyst

    Thomas Catherwood - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe I wanted to go back to Michael's initial question about rent growth. The assets you've acquired this year have been at lower going-in cap rates than you've done historically. Given the rent growth expectations that you talked about on this call and previous calls, are you now willing to buy assets where the mark-to-market upside is further out, say, say, two to three years? And if so, how does that impact both the pool of acquisition opportunities that are available to you and your return expectations?

    我想回到 Michael 一開始關於租金成長的問題。你們今年收購的資產,其初始資本化率(going-in cap rates)比你們過去歷史上做的更低。考量你們在這通電話以及之前幾次電話中談到的租金成長預期,你們現在是否願意買入那些「按市價重估」(mark-to-market)的上行空間要更久才會顯現的資產,例如要兩到三年?如果是,這會如何影響你們可取得的收購機會池,以及你們的報酬預期?

  • Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. Thanks, Tom. I think the way you should think about this is our approach in any sort of deployment, capital allocation is around total return. And with the balance sheet our size and access to capital through both private vehicles and the PLD mothership, we have all sorts of opportunity to deploy where others just simply can't.

    當然。謝謝你,Tom。我認為你應該這樣理解:我們在任何資金投放、資本配置上的方法,核心都是總報酬(total return)。而以我們這樣規模的資產負債表,以及透過私募載體與 PLD 母體取得資本的能力,我們有各式各樣的投放機會,是其他人根本做不到的。

  • And so with the large mark-to-market with the widening gap between market rents and replacement costs, we do have confidence that if we get the right discount to replacement cost, the right quality, take it through all the same filters using the same discipline that we've always used, we'll certainly find more opportunities there.

    因此,隨著市場租金與替代成本之間的差距擴大、帶來更大的按市價重估空間(mark-to-market),我們有信心:只要能以合適的相對替代成本折價(discount to replacement cost)買到、品質也正確,並且用我們一貫的紀律、透過相同的篩選標準去檢視,我們肯定能在那裡找到更多機會。

  • What that means for the overall pool of opportunities out there, who knows, the market is digesting a lot of change in the capital markets right now. But overall, I like what we said, and we're going to stick to the strategy we've deployed for years.

    這對整體可投資機會池意味著什麼,誰也說不準;資本市場眼下正在消化大量變化。但總體而言,我認同我們所說的,我們也會堅持多年來已部署的策略。

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. And just to build on that, Tom, just speaking technically, the activity you see here in the quarter was driven in very large part by one such deal had a very high lease mark-to-market, and we reflect the actual cap rate, not a market cap rate in the supplemental. So we're seeing that. And as Dan just said, our ability to wait longer maybe than the average investor for those rents to come through gives us the buying advantage that we have is reflected in that discount to replacement cost this quarter as well.

    是的。而且再補充一下,Tom,從技術面來看,本季你看到的活動在很大程度上是由其中一筆交易所帶動,該交易的租約按市價重估(mark-to-market)幅度非常高;我們在補充資料中反映的是實際資本化率(cap rate),而不是市場資本化率。所以我們看到這個影響。另外如 Dan 剛才所說,我們能夠比一般投資人等待更久,讓租金逐步反映出來,這種能力帶來了我們的收購優勢,也在本季相對重置成本的折價中有所體現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Caitlin Burrows, Goldman Sachs.

    Caitlin Burrows,高盛。

  • Caitlin Burrows - Analyst

    Caitlin Burrows - Analyst

  • Just a follow-up on the transaction market. So just looking at acquisition guidance, having increased, but then contributions and dispositions were down I guess, could you go through the driving factors of the revisions and why they're being revised in different directions? I know you mentioned earlier that the market may take a pause, and there's some bid-ask difference spread. But yes, the impact that's having.

    我想就交易市場再追問一下。就收購指引來看,雖然上調了,但我猜出資(contributions)和處分(dispositions)卻下調了;你們能否說明一下修正的驅動因素,以及為什麼會朝不同方向修正?我知道你們先前提到市場可能會暫停一下,而且買賣價差(bid-ask spread)存在差距。但想了解這對你們造成的影響。

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, Caitlin, I mean, on the first part, acquisitions, a lot of it is a function of what we've now just simply done to date. And we have a narrow range for the balance of the year. We'll see if we execute on -- it could be any number within there, maybe even higher or lower than the range. It's all subject to what the market ultimately brings. I think the disposition and contribution guidance just reflects a little bit of caution and our willingness to be careful if there is some turbulence in pricing from here as the interest rate environment has been so volatile.

    是的,Caitlin。先談第一部分,收購方面,很大一部分只是反映我們截至目前實際已完成的進度。而且我們對今年剩餘期間給的是一個較窄的區間。至於最終會落在區間內哪個數字——甚至可能高於或低於該區間——要看我們是否執行以及市場最終提供什麼樣的機會。一切都取決於市場最終的走向。我認為處分與出資的指引,更多反映的是一些審慎態度;在利率環境如此波動、可能導致價格出現震盪的情況下,我們願意更小心行事。

  • We also know of a couple of deals that simply are pushing in terms of timing out into the new year. And next year when we give new guidance, we'll see how that trues up.

    我們也知道有幾筆交易在時程上就是往後延,推到明年初。等到明年我們提供新的指引時,再看這些如何對上實際結果。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vince Tibone, Green Street.

    Vince Tibone,Green Street。

  • Vince Tibone - Analyst

    Vince Tibone - Analyst

  • So the weighted average stabilized cap rate on active development projects increased about 20 basis points to 5.7% quarter-over-quarter. Just want to understand is that 20 basis point change your initial view for changing market cap rates as a result of higher rates? Or is there something else impacting that figure on a quarter-over-quarter basis?

    活躍開發專案的加權平均穩定後資本化率(stabilized cap rate)季對季上升約 20 個基點至 5.7%。我想了解,這 20 個基點的變化是否反映你們對於因利率上升而導致市場資本化率變動的初步看法?還是有其他因素在季對季層面影響了這個數字?

  • Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, Vince, we review the pricing and valuations on these -- on that development pool as you can imagine, on a regular basis. And there's a same-store aspect to it and then there's obviously ins and outs in that overall pool. But that is a reflection on what we see the terminal value of that real estate will be upon stabilization.

    Vince,我們會如你所想,定期檢視這些——也就是那個開發資產池——的定價與估值。其中既有同店(same-store)的因素,當然也有整體資產池的進出變動。但這個數字反映的是我們對這些不動產在達到穩定營運(stabilization)時,其終端價值(terminal value)會是多少的判斷。

  • And that being said, keep in mind, as we underwrite, we've long used, I would even say maybe a conservative approach where we build in the appropriate cost of capital. We already build in expansion in these cap rates over time and take into account risk associated with delivering this. So is that the exact number on where values are shaking out today? Hard to say, there's just so many moving parts there.

    另外也請記得,在我們做承作評估(underwrite)時,長期以來採用的做法——我甚至會說偏保守——是把適當的資金成本(cost of capital)納入。我們本來就會在模型中納入資本化率隨時間擴張的假設,並考量交付這些專案所伴隨的風險。所以這是否就是今天市場價值實際落點的精確數字?很難說,因為其中有太多變動因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

    John Kim,BMO 資本市場。

  • John Kim - Analyst

    John Kim - Analyst

  • On the data center front, you mentioned a letter of intent of roughly 1 gigawatt. I think that's been fairly stable over the last few months. But can you just comment on what the constraints are to getting those leases signed? Is it securing the permitting and the power? Or is it something more on the leasing economics front?

    在資料中心方面,你們提到大約 1 吉瓦(gigawatt)的意向書(LOI)。我認為過去幾個月這個數字相當穩定。但你能否評論一下,簽下這些租約的限制因素是什麼?是取得許可(permitting)與電力(power)嗎?還是更多是在租賃經濟條件(leasing economics)方面?

  • Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think every deal is a little bit different, right? The pace of power and entitlements, these are projects we've been working on for years. These negotiations with these hyperscalers, they're long in duration. And you've seen us already start over $2 billion worth of data centers this year. We've always said that this is going to be a very lumpy business.

    我想每一筆交易都不太一樣,對吧?電力與各項核准(entitlements)的進度,這些都是我們已經投入多年在推動的專案。與這些超大規模雲端業者(hyperscalers)的談判,週期都很長。而且你也看到我們今年已經開工超過 20 億美元的資料中心。我們一直都說,這會是一個非常不均勻、起伏很大的(lumpy)業務。

  • So there's not one single constraint that we were talking with confidence about delivering that 1 gigawatt right there. We're talking with confidence about delivering these 5.8 gigawatts over the next five years as well. So no one thing to point to. Negotiations just take a long time. These are multibillion-dollar decisions that these hyperscalers are making.

    所以並沒有單一限制因素;我們有信心交付眼前這 1 吉瓦。我們也有信心在未來五年交付這 5.8 吉瓦。因此沒有哪一件事可以特別指出來。談判本來就需要很長時間。這些超大規模雲端業者正在做的是數十億美元等級的決策。

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • And I would just underline one thing Dan just said, which is, and I guess implicit in the way you phrased the question, but just that because of starts or despite starts that we've had, that are no longer LOI, we're actually refilling that LOI stage steadily as we've had these starts.

    我也想強調 Dan 剛才說的一點:我想這也隱含在你提問的方式裡——就是因為我們已經開工(starts),或儘管我們有一些已開工、因此不再屬於 LOI 的案子,我們其實也在隨著這些開工案持續、穩定地補回 LOI 階段的案源。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nicholas Yulico, Scotiabank.

    Nicholas Yulico,豐業銀行(Scotiabank)。

  • Nicholas Yulico - Analyst

    Nicholas Yulico - Analyst

  • I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about Southern California and the different performances you're seeing in submarkets there. South Bay stuff that's tied to like advanced manufacturing, defense industries versus more traditional 3PL demand in that market of parts of L.A. and Inland Empire.

    我希望你們能多談一點南加州,以及你們在那裡不同次市場(submarkets)看到的表現差異。例如 South Bay 那些與先進製造、國防產業相關的需求,相較於洛杉磯部分地區與 Inland Empire 較傳統的第三方物流(3PL)需求。

  • Christopher Caton - Managing Director, Global Head - Strategy & Analytics

    Christopher Caton - Managing Director, Global Head - Strategy & Analytics

  • Sure. This is Chris. So bottom line. Southern California is recovering consistent with what we've been talking about throughout the year. So you know net absorption is positive.

    當然。這裡是 Chris。先講結論。南加州的復甦符合我們今年以來一直在談的情況。所以你知道,淨吸納量(net absorption)是正的。

  • Market occupancy is up year-on-year. It's risen at 93.5%. And in fact, I'd point to Prologis being nearly 97% occupied. Now rents are stable with progress variable, just like you're asking sort of with differences by submarket and product quality. So let's start in Inland Empire.

    市場入住率(occupancy)年對年上升。已提升至 93.5%。而且事實上,我會指出 Prologis 的入住率接近 97%。目前租金整體穩定,但進展有差異,正如你所問的,會因次市場與產品品質不同而有所不同。所以我們先從 Inland Empire 談起。

  • That continues to be really healthy, really strong, good momentum across a range of size categories, vacancies coming in at different speeds with the strength above, say, 600,000 square feet. Los Angeles is variable by submarket. Yes, after the South Bay, really Class A is enjoying a renaissance in the aerospace space and that market is moving quickly.

    那裡仍然非常健康、非常強勁,在不同面積級距都有良好動能;空置率回落的速度各有不同,其中 60 萬平方英尺以上的區間表現更強。洛杉磯則依次市場而異。是的,在 South Bay 之後,真正的 A 級(Class A)在航太領域迎來復興,該市場推進得很快。

  • Where we are in the cycle, what really matters is portfolio quality, location quality and active asset management. Prologis has captured more than our fair share of the market, and this is both true nationally and Southern California with an active portfolio management approach.

    在目前的景氣循環位置,真正重要的是投資組合品質、區位品質,以及主動式資產管理。Prologis 透過主動的投資組合管理方式,取得了超過我們應得份額的市場占有率;這不僅在全國層面成立,在南加州也同樣如此。

  • And so look, stepping back, we've been consistent that Southern California is a long-term attractive opportunity for us going back years as we've been discussing Southern California in the call. We've also been clear that we expected a cyclical recovery to emerge, and that absolutely is emerging, and it positions our portfolio to outperform in the next coming years.

    所以你看,退一步來說,我們一直以來都很一致地認為南加州對我們而言是具長期吸引力的機會,這點我們在電話會議中談到南加州時,已經討論多年。我們也很清楚地表示,我們預期會出現週期性復甦,而這確實正在發生,並使我們的投資組合在未來幾年具備跑贏大盤的定位。

  • Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • The only thing I would pile on there is if you look at just the overall supply picture, it's -- I think last quarter was one of the lowest start quarters in I don't know how long, over a decade. And so that will -- the overall fundamentals are really shaking out as we projected.

    我唯一想再補充的是,如果你只看整體供給面,我認為上一季是我不知道多久以來、至少超過十年中開工量最低的季度之一。因此——整體基本面確實正如我們所預測的那樣逐步明朗。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Thillman, Baird.

    Nick Thillman,Baird。

  • Nicholas Thillman - Analyst

    Nicholas Thillman - Analyst

  • Maybe just a quick two-part question on just lease economics. Overall, we see uptick quarter-over-quarter on just turnover costs. Wondering if that's more just a function of mix. And then broadly, as we just look at your US portfolio, as concessions are they topped out here just given the increase in activity you're seeing on the leasing side?

    也許就租賃經濟性快速問一個兩部分的問題。整體來看,我們看到換租成本(turnover costs)較上一季上升。想請問這是否更多只是組合(mix)因素所致。另外更廣泛地看你們的美國投資組合,鑑於你們在租賃端看到的活動增加,租賃讓利(concessions)是否已在此處見頂?

  • I guess, how would you classify that? Are there still some markets that are a little bit more challenged. You're seeing some erosion there.

    我想,您會如何分類這種情況?是否仍有一些市場相對更具挑戰性。你們在那裡看到一些走弱(erosion)。

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Nick, yes, your observations are clear, the turnover cost is indeed more of a mix issue. We've got new leasing, not just in some higher rent markets that can concentrate that way, but we're also building occupancy. So in both those activities, you wind up bearing a little bit more on the turnover cost front. Embedded in the free rent figure you see, I would just highlight that it's hard for you to -- or any investor, I guess, to detect, but we present that number on a trailing 12-month basis. When you unpack it sequentially, the free rent level actually declined as a percent of lease value quarter-over-quarter.

    Nick,是的,你的觀察很到位,換租成本確實更多是組合問題。我們有新的租賃,不僅是在一些租金較高的市場(可能使數據集中呈現那樣的效果),同時我們也在提升入住率。因此在這兩類活動中,你最終都會在換租成本方面承擔得多一些。在你看到的免租(free rent)數字中,我想特別指出的是,這對你——或我想任何投資人——都不容易察覺,但我們是以過去12個月(trailing 12-month)的基礎呈現該數字。若按序列拆解,免租水準占租約價值的比例其實在季度對季度是下降的。

  • I'm not suggesting necessarily on that downward trend in earnest yet. But it is going to bounce around here. We think it will decline towards closer to 3% over the longer term.

    我並不是說這就一定已經正式進入明確的下行趨勢。但它在這裡會有些波動。我們認為長期來看會下降並更接近3%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Carroll, RBC Capital Markets.

    Michael Carroll,RBC Capital Markets。

  • Michael Carroll - Analyst

    Michael Carroll - Analyst

  • I wanted to touch on the current demand outlook. I mean, I know Prologis is still pretty positive on where trends are right now. Can you maybe explain what's driving this? I mean are higher interest rates holding back the more traditional industrial demand, but this is just being offset by stronger e-commerce and data center supply chain drivers? Or are all these buckets doing pretty well, and there's really a minimal impact from the higher rates so far?

    我想談談目前的需求展望。我的意思是,我知道 Prologis 對目前趨勢仍相當正面。你能否解釋一下背後的驅動因素?也就是說,較高利率是否正在抑制較傳統的工業需求,但被更強勁的電商與資料中心供應鏈驅動因素所抵消?或者這些類別其實都表現不錯,而到目前為止較高利率的影響其實很有限?

  • Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • The best lens we have to answer that question is really just through the lens of our customers. Obviously, we are with them daily and sharing anecdotes and pulling our data, proprietary data, regularly. And what I'd say is just overall conversations continue to be very constructive. You heard the numbers from last quarter. You see the overall trend across the US.

    我們用來回答這個問題的最佳視角,其實就是從客戶的角度來看。顯然我們每天都與他們互動,分享一些案例(anecdotes),並定期調取我們的數據、專有數據。我想說的是,整體對話仍然非常具建設性。你也聽到了上一季的數字。你也看到全美的整體趨勢。

  • with net absorption numbers in the 230 million to 240 million square foot range. We're certainly seeing an outsized percentage of demand in the data center build-out. Some of the more interest rate sensitive segments are a little bit slower. I think that says something about just our business, the quality of our real estate and the fact that we can attract this new demand driver around the data center build-out. But what I'd say is our customers they invest in their supply chain when their businesses are growing.

    以淨吸納量(net absorption)來看,大約在2.30億到2.40億平方英尺的區間。我們確實看到資料中心建置(build-out)帶來的需求占比偏高。一些對利率更敏感的細分領域則稍微慢一些。我認為這也反映了我們業務的特性、我們不動產的品質,以及我們能吸引這個圍繞資料中心建置的新需求驅動因素。但我想說的是,當客戶的業務在成長時,他們就會投資其供應鏈。

  • And the conversations, again, like I said, are very constructive. We're hearing about additional capacity they need. And that's from both just the modernization of the supply chain, that's their e-commerce growth. Just a fair amount of those tailwinds. And I'd say the pipeline itself continues to replenish even after these big 60 million-plus square foot quarters.

    而且這些對話——如我所說——仍然非常具建設性。我們聽到他們需要額外的產能。這既來自供應鏈現代化,也來自他們的電商成長。有相當多這類順風因素。我也會說,即便在這些單季超過6,000萬平方英尺的大季度之後,整體管線(pipeline)仍在持續補充。

  • So overall, we're thinking we're getting more than our fair share in the leasing.

    所以整體而言,我們認為我們在租賃上拿到的份額超過了我們應得的平均水準。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Blaine Heck, Wells Fargo.

    Blaine Heck,Wells Fargo。

  • Blaine Heck - Analyst

    Blaine Heck - Analyst

  • I know you can't talk about specifics related to the SEGRO deal. But in general, does the movement in rates have much of an impact on the economics of the deal from your perspective? And related to that, do you guys have any better handle on when that transaction will close and whether initial '27 guidance will include or exclude the impact from SEGRO?

    我知道你們不能談 SEGRO 交易的具體細節。但一般而言,利率變動從你們的角度看,會對交易的經濟性造成很大影響嗎?以及相關地,你們是否更能掌握該交易何時完成交割,以及你們最初的2027年指引會包含或排除 SEGRO 的影響?

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Blaine, it's Tim. Yes. Well, you answered it yourself there. We can't really speak in very much detail to the transaction overall beyond and we're super excited about where things have landed over the course of the quarter. We'll now go through the regulatory steps from here.

    Blaine,我是 Tim。是的。嗯,你自己其實也回答了。除了我們對本季進展落點感到非常興奮之外,我們確實無法就整體交易多談太多細節。接下來我們將從這裡開始進入監管程序。

  • But all of that regulated process does keep us from speaking with any specificity to things like cost and revenue synergies and accretion. So I have no update for you there. But I can say this to the thrust of your question on capitalization and interest rates, it's not news that the vast majority of the capitalization of this transaction is known and certain.

    但整個受監管的流程確實使我們無法就成本與營收協同效益(synergies)以及增厚(accretion)等事項提供任何具體說明。所以這方面我沒有更新可以提供。不過就你關於資本結構與利率的問題核心而言,這筆交易的絕大部分資本安排是已知且確定的,這並不是新聞。

  • It's broadly the share exchange thereafter, we've done an equity raise that we've tucked away for this eventual closing and then there will be an amount of assumed debt that has interest rates that won't change. So you can think about it that way as you wait for further guidance.

    大體上是後續的換股(share exchange);我們已完成一筆股權募資(equity raise),並已預留以因應最終交割;此外還會有一部分承接債務(assumed debt),其利率不會改變。所以在等待進一步指引時,你可以用這種方式來理解。

  • I do not anticipate that inaugural guidance will include specifics on SEGRO because we don't expect that we'll have closed by then. It's not our expectation. And because they're after its closing, date is uncertain, it would just be too light of a range and too confusing. But more on that to come in January and upon the eventual close.

    我不預期首次發布的指引會包含 SEGRO 的具體內容,因為我們預期在那之前不會完成交割。這不是我們的預期。而且由於交割日期在完成後仍不確定,若納入只會使區間過於狹窄且造成混淆。不過我們會在一月以及最終交割時再提供更多說明。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dave Rodgers, Raymond James.

    Dave Rodgers,Raymond James。

  • Dave Rodgers - Analyst

    Dave Rodgers - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about data centers, both with respect to the 1.7 gigawatts secured and then that 5.8 gigawatts longer term. And it's really getting to the concept of data center moratorium. And I think that there's like three questions in there, so I apologize in advance.

    我想問關於資料中心的問題,包含已確保的1.7吉瓦(gigawatts),以及較長期的5.8吉瓦。而這其實是要談到資料中心暫停令(moratorium)的概念。我想這裡面大概有三個問題,所以先跟你們致歉。

  • But I'm curious if you're having any direct impact from data center moratorium or legislation or anything to where your secured power or that power pipeline is the 17% ancillary demand that you quoted, is that getting -- is that growing or shrinking as the years going on? And is this impacting in any way your funding plans around a JV -- sorry, all in one, but all related to kind of moratoriums and any impact on your business?

    但我想了解的是,你們是否正受到任何資料中心暫停令、立法或其他事項的直接影響?也就是說,你們已確保的電力或電力管線(power pipeline),以及你們提到的17%附帶需求(ancillary demand),這個比例隨著時間推進是在增加還是在減少?另外,這是否以任何方式影響你們圍繞合資(JV)的資金規劃——抱歉把這些都放在同一題,但都與暫停令以及其對你們業務的任何影響相關。

  • Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Dave. I'll start and hand it to Chris for the second and third part of your question there. But overall, the pipeline that we quote has not been impacted by moratoriums. We have a very high bar that we set before we pull any power into this and publish it. And so we feel very strongly about our ability to deliver this, as I mentioned earlier in the call.

    謝謝你,Dave。我先開始,然後把你問題的第二與第三部分交給 Chris。但整體而言,我們所提到的案源管線並未受到禁令的影響。在我們把任何電力納入其中並對外發布之前,我們設定了非常高的門檻。因此,正如我先前在電話會議中提到的,我們對於交付這些項目的能力非常有信心。

  • A number of these various issues you see or various moratoriums, maybe they're not necessarily moratoriums. Maybe there's just a pause while more analysis is taking place. And so it may slow a project down by a few months or a quarter or two. But we just [point blank] have not been impacted by any of the specific moratoriums. And like I said earlier, 85% of that 5.8 gigawatts will be able to start by 2030?

    你看到的這些不同議題或各種禁令,其中有些也許不一定真的是禁令。也可能只是因為需要進一步分析而暫停一下。因此,這可能會讓某個專案放慢幾個月,或延後一季或兩季。但我們確實[明確地]沒有受到任何特定禁令的影響。而且如我先前所說,那 5.8 吉瓦中的 85% 將能在 2030 年前啟動?

  • And Chris, why don't you--

    Chris,你要不要——

  • Christopher Caton - Managing Director, Global Head - Strategy & Analytics

    Christopher Caton - Managing Director, Global Head - Strategy & Analytics

  • Yes, Dave, the 17%, so just everyone's on the same page, that's the share of new leasing in the quarter for logistics real estate that were data center supplier related. That is strengthening, to answer your question directly.

    是的,Dave,關於 17%,為了讓大家理解一致,那是指本季物流不動產新增租賃中,與資料中心供應商相關的占比。直接回答你的問題:這個趨勢正在增強。

  • These are the hyperscalers, the manufacturers, distributors. These are large, well-capitalized companies signing long-term logistics real estate leases and they're establishing a whole ecosystem of regional distribution. They're facilitating just-in-time equipment delivery, light assembly and modular construction to speed these facilities to delivery.

    這些包括超大規模業者(hyperscalers)、製造商、經銷商。這些是資本實力雄厚的大型公司,簽訂長期的物流不動產租約,並正在建立一整套區域配送的生態系。他們在促成即時(just-in-time)設備交付、輕量組裝與模組化施工,以加速這些設施的交付。

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • And I'll pick up the last part, just on any implications to funding. And I guess, I would start just by saying empirically, you know that we do not require any JV or other funding for this business. We've been happily executing on it on our own, have plenty of balance sheet capacity to continue doing so.

    我來接最後一部分,談談對資金面的任何影響。我想我會先說,就實證而言,你知道我們的這項業務不需要任何合資(JV)或其他資金來源。我們一直很愉快地自行執行,也有充足的資產負債表容量可以持續這麼做。

  • We're happy with what we shared last quarter, where we've set up some structures that we can choose to utilize, especially as some projects may come along that could be very significant in size, where it may be appropriate and also more accretive, frankly, on our equity dollars. But heretofore, we've been pretty happy to do this on our own.

    我們對上季分享的內容感到滿意,當時我們建立了一些架構,讓我們可以選擇是否使用,特別是當某些專案可能規模非常可觀時,採用這些架構可能更合適,而且坦白說,對我們的股權資金也更具增益性(accretive)。但到目前為止,我們一直很滿意由我們自己來做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Todd Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    Todd Thomas,KeyBanc Capital Markets。

  • Todd Thomas - Analyst

    Todd Thomas - Analyst

  • There's been some commentary about the higher interest rate environment leading to an increase in return requirements. And I was just wondering if you could elaborate on that and speak to both acquisition and development returns, what specifically has changed over the last several months? And then specifically in data centers, just given some of the volatility that we're seeing there in the data center capital markets.

    外界有一些評論認為,較高的利率環境導致報酬率要求上升。我想請你們就此多做說明,並談談收購與開發的報酬率,過去幾個月具體有哪些變化?另外,特別是在資料中心領域,考量到我們在資料中心資本市場看到的一些波動。

  • Can you just speak to whether anything's changed in how you're underwriting tenant credit or required returns for developments with hyperscalers or other potential data center customers before putting capital at risk?

    你們能否談談,在投入資本承擔風險之前,對於超大規模業者或其他潛在資料中心客戶的開發案,你們在承租戶信用評估或所要求的報酬率方面,是否有任何改變?

  • Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

    Timothy Arndt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Todd, it's Tim. I'll just start on return requirements, how we're handling cost of capital. We don't know where the cost of capital is precisely. We saw the 10-year drop 20 basis points today. So it's certainly bouncing around quite a bit.

    Todd,我是 Tim。我先從報酬率要求、以及我們如何處理資金成本談起。我們並不確定資金成本精確落在哪裡。我們看到今天 10 年期利率下跌了 20 個基點。所以它確實波動得相當厲害。

  • But in these periods of volatility, we do put some reserve in the way we look for underwriting expectations through our investment committee process. These are periods of transition where we exercise that caution and await some kind of new equilibrium and stable environment. And everything can reset there and the beauty about our business is we're spread investors, and we know we can create value in both our operations and our development business is really in any yield environment. But indeed, as things have been so volatile the last, what, 6 weeks, in particular, we are a little more cautious in that outlook.

    但在這種波動期間,我們在投資委員會流程中,會在承銷預期的評估方式上預留一些緩衝。這些是過渡期,我們會保持謹慎,等待某種新的均衡與穩定環境出現。屆時一切都可能重新定價;而我們業務的優勢在於,我們是做利差投資(spread investors),我們知道無論在任何殖利率環境下,都能在營運與開發業務中創造價值。但確實,尤其是過去大約 6 週波動非常劇烈,我們在展望上會更為謹慎一些。

  • Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And then when you think about the data center underwriting, data center capital markets, these markets are still forming. And certainly, rates matter in a big way for sure. But these values -- they're not driven by one variable. And given where that overall market is, we build buffers in to these risk-adjusted returns, whether it be the ultimate terminal value, the execution risk, construction risk, supply chain risk. So we have buffers there.

    再談資料中心的承銷與資料中心資本市場,這些市場仍在形成中。當然,利率確實在很大程度上會產生影響。但這些估值——並不是由單一變數所驅動。而且考量到整體市場狀況,我們會在風險調整後的報酬中加入緩衝,不論是最終的終端價值、執行風險、施工風險、供應鏈風險。所以我們在這些方面都有緩衝。

  • We're going to continue to preserve those margins. Those margins that we've been quoting going all the way back to 2023. And these deals evolve over time, and we'll adjust the returns as needed, but we feel good about the numbers that we've been quoting.

    我們會持續維持這些利潤空間。也就是我們自 2023 年以來一路對外引用的那些利潤空間。而這些交易會隨時間演進,我們也會視需要調整報酬率,但我們對目前所引用的數字感到放心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And therefore, I'd like to turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

    我們已經到達問答環節的結束。因此,我想把電話會議交回給管理層作結語。

  • Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Daniel Letter - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, thank you for joining us today, and thanks again to our Prologis colleagues around the world for another excellent quarter. We look forward to speaking with you all again next quarter. Thank you.

    感謝各位今天加入我們,也再次感謝全球各地的 Prologis 同仁,讓我們又交出一個非常出色的季度。我們期待在下個季度再次與各位交流。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And this does conclude today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束,您現在可以掛斷電話線。感謝您的參與。