使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings and welcome to the Park Hotels & Resorts fourth-quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call.
問候並歡迎參加 Park Hotels & Resorts 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指示)
As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
提醒一下,本次會議正在錄製中。
It is now my pleasure to introduce Ian Weissman, Senior Vice President, Corporate Strategy. Please go ahead.
現在我很高興介紹企業策略資深副總裁 Ian Weissman。請繼續。
Ian Weissman - Senior Vice President - Corporate Strategy
Ian Weissman - Senior Vice President - Corporate Strategy
Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone to the Park Hotels & Resorts fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call.
謝謝接線員,歡迎大家參加 Park Hotels & Resorts 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。
Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of the comments made today are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. As described in our filings with the SEC, these statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed, and we are not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements. Actual future performance outcomes and results may differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. Please refer to the documents filed by Park with the SEC, specifically those most recent reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in forward-looking statements.
在我們開始之前,我想提醒大家,今天發表的許多評論根據聯邦證券法被視為前瞻性陳述。正如我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述,這些聲明受到眾多風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致未來的結果與所表達的結果不同,我們沒有義務公開更新或修改這些前瞻性聲明。實際的未來績效結果可能與前瞻性陳述中所表達的結果有重大差異。請參閱 Park 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,特別是最新的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格報告,其中列出了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果不同的重要風險因素。
In addition, on today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial information such as FFO and adjusted EBITDA. You can find this information together with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure in yesterday's earnings release, as well as in our 8-K filed with the SEC and the supplemental financial information available on our website at pkhotelsandresorts.com.
此外,在今天的電話會議上,我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務信息,例如 FFO 和調整後的 EBITDA。您可以在昨天的收益報告中、在我們向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的 8-K 表格中以及在我們的網站 pkhotelsandresorts.com 上提供的補充財務信息中找到此信息以及與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。
Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all operating results will be presented on a comparable hotel basis. This morning, Tom Baltimore, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will review Park's fourth quarter performance and provide an outlook for 2025, while Sean Dell'Orto, our Chief Financial Officer, will provide additional color on fourth quarter results and further details on guidance. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions.
此外,除非另有說明,所有經營業績均以可比飯店為基礎呈現。今天上午,我們的董事長兼首席執行官湯姆·巴爾的摩 (Tom Baltimore) 將回顧 Park 第四季度的業績並對 2025 年做出展望,而我們的首席財務官肖恩·戴爾奧托 (Sean Dell'Orto) 將提供有關第四季度業績的更多詳細信息以及有關指導的進一步細節。在我們準備好發言之後,我們將開始提問。
With that, I would like to turn the call over to Tom.
說完這些,我想把電話轉給湯姆。
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Ian, and welcome, everyone.
謝謝你,伊恩,歡迎大家。
Let me begin by saying how proud I am of our performance in 2024, the year in which we achieved sector leading results while advancing multiple strategic objectives, building a strong foundation for the company's sustained growth and long-term success.
首先,我對我們2024年的業績感到非常自豪,這一年我們取得了行業領先的業績,同時推進了多項戰略目標,為公司的持續增長和長期成功奠定了堅實的基礎。
Operationally, our portfolio exceeded our expectations for both top line and bottom line performance, showcasing the exceptional quality of our portfolio, further enhanced by the strategic capital investments we've made and our team's steadfast commitment to operational excellence.
在營運方面,我們的投資組合超出了我們對頂線和底線表現的預期,展示了我們投資組合的卓越品質,而我們所做的策略資本投資和我們團隊對卓越營運的堅定承諾進一步增強了我們的品質。
On the capital allocation front, we continue to reshape our portfolio by strategically divesting of non-core hotels. Accordingly, we disposed of three hotels during the year including two hotels and joint ventures that were sold for a combined $200 million in addition to the early termination of a ground lease and closure of the Hilton Oakland Airport, which incurred an EBITDA loss of nearly $4 million over the prior 12 months.
在資本配置方面,我們透過策略性地剝離非核心酒店來繼續重塑我們的投資組合。因此,我們在本年度處置了三家酒店,其中包括兩家酒店和合資企業,總售價為 2 億美元,此外還提前終止了土地租賃並關閉了奧克蘭機場希爾頓酒店,這家酒店在過去 12 個月內產生了近 400 萬美元的 EBITDA 損失。
Exiting these hotels improved 2024 RevPAR by $3 while increasing EBITDA margin by over 30 basis points. As we enter this year, we intend to be more aggressive with our disposition efforts, targeting between $300 million to $400 million of non-core asset sales as we seek to further improve the overall quality of our portfolio, enhance our long term growth profile and pay down debt.
退出這些酒店將使 2024 年 RevPAR 提高 3 美元,同時 EBITDA 利潤率提高 30 多個基點。進入今年,我們打算更積極地進行資產處置,目標是出售 3 億至 4 億美元的非核心資產,以進一步改善投資組合的整體質量,增強我們的長期成長前景並償還債務。
As a reminder, since 2017, we have sold or disposed of 45 hotels for over $3 billion while meaningfully upgraded the quality of our portfolio. As we execute our strategy to sell non-core assets, we remain laser focused on allocating capital to maximize shareholder returns including the reinvestment of proceeds into our core portfolio of iconic hotels.
提醒一下,自 2017 年以來,我們已以超過 30 億美元的價格出售或處置了 45 家酒店,同時顯著提升了我們投資組合的品質。在執行出售非核心資產的策略時,我們仍然專注於分配資本以最大化股東回報,包括將收益再投資於我們的核心標誌性飯店組合。
I'm incredibly proud of the value we have created through recent redevelopments at our Bonnet Creek resort in Orlando and Casa Marina resort in Key West. Each property has delivered exceptional performance in their first year post improvement with RevPAR increasing 17% at Bonnet Creek in 2024 over the prior year and EBITDA for the complex exceeding $82 million which is nearly $22 million or 36% above last year.
我對我們最近在奧蘭多的 Bonnet Creek 度假村和基韋斯特的 Casa Marina 度假村的重新開發中創造的價值感到無比自豪。每個物業在改進後的第一年都取得了出色的業績,2024 年 Bonnet Creek 的 RevPAR 比上一年增長了 17%,該綜合體的 EBITDA 超過 8200 萬美元,比去年高出近 2200 萬美元或 36%。
At Casa Marina, RevPAR increased almost 29% since 2019, and EBITDA for the resort finished the year at $30 million or over $96,000 per key and up over 31% since 2019.
Casa Marina 的 RevPAR 自 2019 年以來增長了近 29%,度假村的 EBITDA 年底達到 3000 萬美元,即每間客房超過 96,000 美元,自 2019 年以來增長了 31% 以上。
Looking ahead to 2025, we expect continued growth at both resorts with group revenue pace at the Bonnet Creek complex of 15%. Additionally, we expect tailwinds from the opening of Universal's new $6 billion Epic theme park, which is anticipated to accelerate leisure transient demand into the market after its expected opening this May.
展望 2025 年,我們預計這兩個度假村將繼續成長,其中 Bonnet Creek 綜合度假村的集團收入將成長 15%。此外,我們預計環球影城耗資 60 億美元的全新 Epic 主題樂園的開幕將帶來利好,預計該主題樂園將於今年 5 月開業,屆時將加速休閒短期旅遊需求進入市場。
The Waldorf Astoria is also poised for a further lift, benefiting from the Condé Nast recognition as a top 10 global resort destination in 2024. For Casa Marina, we expect continued market share gains as the resort recaptures its place as the top resort in Key West, while benefiting more this year from an enhanced guest experience with the new Dorada Beach front bar and restaurant.
華爾道夫酒店也將獲得進一步提升,受益於康泰納仕將華爾道夫酒店評為 2024 年全球十大度假勝地之一。對於 Casa Marina,我們預計其市場份額將繼續增長,因為度假村將重新奪回其作為基韋斯特頂級度假村的地位,同時今年新的 Dorada 海灘酒吧和餐廳將為客人帶來更佳的體驗,從而使其受益更多。
We expect each resort to produce RevPAR growth in the upper single digits, translating to double digit EBITDA growth this year, exceeding our underwriting for each of these ROI projects and further demonstrating our ability to unlock embedded value in our core portfolio, which remains one of our key strategic priorities.
我們預計每個度假村的 RevPAR 成長率都將達到較高的個位數,從而轉化為今年兩位數的 EBITDA 成長,超過我們對每個投資回報項目的承保,並進一步證明我們有能力釋放核心投資組合中的內含價值,這仍然是我們的主要策略重點之一。
With our proven track record of value creation through major ROI projects, I'm excited to announce plans to reposition our Royal Palm resort in South Beach, ideally situated along the prestigious Collins Avenue corridor. This transformational $100 million investment is designed to significantly elevate the property's quality and overall guest experience, allowing it to better compete with other premium lifestyle resorts in the market and command a substantial ADR increase.
憑藉我們透過主要投資回報項目創造價值的良好記錄,我很高興地宣布我們計劃重新定位位於南海灘的皇家棕櫚度假村,該度假村地理位置優越,位於著名的柯林斯大道走廊沿線。這項 1 億美元的轉型投資旨在大幅提升飯店的品質和整體賓客體驗,使其能夠更好地與市場上其他高端生活方式度假村競爭,並大幅提高平均房價。
The comprehensive renovation will encompass a full refurbishment of all 393 guest rooms along with the addition of 11 new rooms. We will also reimagine all public spaces, including a new lobby bar, reconcepted food and beverage outlets, and expanded meeting spaces designed to enhance the overall group experience.
此次全面翻新將包括對所有 393 間客房進行全面翻新,並增加 11 間新客房。我們也將重新設計所有公共空間,包括新的大廳酒吧、重新設計的餐飲店以及擴大的會議空間,旨在提升整體團體體驗。
Construction is expected to begin after peak season in May and will require us to suspend operations into Q2 of 2026 with the expectation to reopen well ahead of the World Cup matches scheduled to begin in June of 2026.
預計施工將於 5 月旺季過後開始,這將要求我們暫停營運至 2026 年第二季度,並預計在 2026 年 6 月開始的世界盃比賽之前重新開放。
Based on our underwriting, we expect the project to generate an IRR of 15% to 20% while potentially doubling the EBITDA of the hotel once stabilized. We continue to actively explore additional development opportunities in key markets such as Hawaii, Key West, and Santa Barbara.
根據我們的承保,我們預計該項目將產生 15% 至 20% 的 IRR,同時一旦穩定,酒店的 EBITDA 可能會翻倍。我們繼續積極探索夏威夷、基韋斯特和聖塔芭芭拉等主要市場的更多發展機會。
Our ROI pipeline now exceeds $1 billion with an estimated incremental value creation potential of over $300 million. We remain disciplined and strategic in which projects we pursue as we invest our capital to unlock long term value for our shareholders.
我們的投資報酬率現已超過 10 億美元,預計增量價值創造潛力超過 3 億美元。我們在投資資本時始終堅持紀律性和策略性,致力於為股東創造長期價值。
Turning to operations. We ended Q4 on a solid note following a strong pick up in demand across most segments following the presidential election, with the quarter supported by double digit RevPAR gains in Orlando and Key West coupled with solid group and business transient demand in several key urban markets, including Chicago, Boston, and New York.
轉向營運。總統大選後,大多數細分市場的需求強勁回升,我們以穩健的業績結束了第四季度,其中奧蘭多和基韋斯特的每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 實現了兩位數增長,同時芝加哥、波士頓和紐約等幾個主要城市市場的團體和商務臨時需求也十分強勁。
In Orlando, RevPAR increased nearly 30% during the quarter across our three hotels driven by strong group production and solid gains in the leisure transient segment. I am particularly pleased with the outstanding performance of the Waldorf Astoria Bonnet Creek.
在奧蘭多,受強勁的集團生產和休閒短途市場的穩定成長推動,我們三家飯店的 RevPAR 本季成長了近 30%。我對華爾道夫博內特溪酒店的出色表現感到特別滿意。
Following last year's renovation with the hotel reporting an 85% surge in transient revenues, our group revenues increased over 55% during the quarter. Additionally, the hotel generated a 40% increase in ancillary revenues as guests took advantage of the upgraded outlet facilities and enhancements to our championship golf course.
繼去年酒店的翻新之後,臨時收入激增 85%,我們集團的收入在本季度增長了 55% 以上。此外,由於客人享受了升級的直銷設施和錦標賽高爾夫球場的改進,飯店的輔助收入增加了 40%。
In Key West, Casa Marina continued to exceed expectations with the hotel reporting a 77% increase in RevPAR during the quarter following the 2023 renovation with the hotel's RevPAR index improving to $108.
在基韋斯特,Casa Marina 酒店繼續超出預期,報告顯示,在 2023 年翻新後的季度中,酒店的 RevPAR 增長了 77%,酒店的 RevPAR 指數提升至 108 美元。
December was particularly strong ending with nearly $120 ADR premium over the competitive set and a RevPAR index of $126. Marking the highest quarterly performance since 2019, the hotel saw wins across the entire operation including a total banquet contribution of $543 per group room night and a notable increase in ancillary spend per occupied room, up over 25% versus the prior year period.
12 月表現尤為強勁,每日平均房價 (ADR) 比競爭對手高出近 120 美元,RevPAR 指數達到 126 美元。該酒店取得了 2019 年以來最高的季度業績,整個運營都取得了成功,包括每間團體客房每晚 543 美元的宴會總貢獻以及每間入住客房的輔助支出顯著增加,比去年同期增長了 25% 以上。
At the New York Hilton, RevPAR increased 3.5% during the fourth quarter. Driven by a 17% increase in group room nights, ADR growth was approximately 3% during the quarter, with the expanded group base enabling the hotel to push transient rates up nearly 4%.
紐約希爾頓酒店第四季每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長了 3.5%。受團體間夜量增加 17% 的推動,本季平均房價增加了約 3%,而團體客人數量的增加使得飯店能夠將短期住宿價格提高近 4%。
Notably, rate gains in December were up nearly 6%, further reinforcing the hotel's strong pricing power and demand momentum. At the Hilton Chicago, RevPAR growth was nearly 15%, which combined with operational efficiencies, contributed to a 53 basis point improvement in EBITDA margin over the prior year period.
值得注意的是,12月份房價上漲近6%,進一步增強了飯店強大的定價能力和需求動能。芝加哥希爾頓酒店的 RevPAR 成長了近 15%,加上營運效率的提高,使得 EBITDA 利潤率較去年同期提高了 53 個基點。
Heading into 2025, the Hilton Chicago is seeing healthy demand across all segments, driving expectations for RevPAR growth this year above a very strong 2024 performance.
展望 2025 年,芝加哥希爾頓酒店各個細分市場的需求都十分強勁,預計今年的 RevPAR 成長將高於 2024 年的強勁表現。
Turning to Hawaii. As previously disclosed, results at our Hilton Hawaiian Village hotel were negatively impacted by a 45 day labor strike coupled with disruption from the renovation of 404 guest rooms at the iconic Rainbow Tower collectively accounting for a nearly 540 basis point headwind, the total portfolio RevPAR during the fourth quarter.
轉向夏威夷。如前所述,我們的希爾頓夏威夷村酒店的業績受到為期 45 天的工人罷工以及標誌性彩虹塔 404 間客房翻修的干擾的負面影響,合計造成第四季度整體酒店組合 RevPAR 下降近 540 個基點。
Looking ahead, we anticipate a solid rebound for the resort in 2025. Despite a modest start with very challenging year over year comparisons during the first quarter, we expect solid growth for the rest of the year with fourth quarter growth aided by lapping last year's strike disruption.
展望未來,我們預計度假村將在 2025 年強勁反彈。儘管第一季的年比表現非常艱難,但我們預計今年剩餘時間將穩健成長,而第四季的成長將得益於去年罷工造成的混亂。
While we continue to see improvements in demand from Japan, most of the gains are expected to be driven by inbound domestic travelers along with increased citywide activity with a nearly 85% increase in convention room nights this year.
雖然我們繼續看到來自日本的需求有所改善,但預計大部分增長將由入境國內旅客以及全市活動的增加所推動,今年會議室過夜數增加了近 85%。
At our Hilton Waikoloa hotel where full year RevPAR was down 16% on lower group demand due to tough comparisons and renovation disruption in the second half of the year, we expect a sharp rebound in group production in 2025, with group revenue pace up nearly 70%, leading to anticipated positive RevPAR growth in 2025.
在我們的希爾頓威可洛亞酒店,由於下半年艱難的比較和裝修中斷導致集團需求下降,全年 RevPAR 下降了 16%,我們預計 2025 年集團產量將大幅反彈,集團收入將增長近 70%,從而預計 2025 年 RevPAR 將實現正增長。
Turning the focus to our outlook for 2025. We continue to see positive demand trends across all segments which accelerated following the presidential election in November and I feel cautiously optimistic about how the year will unfold.
將焦點轉向我們對 2025 年的展望。我們繼續看到各領域的需求呈現正面趨勢,這種趨勢在 11 月總統大選之後有所加速,我對今年的情況發展持謹慎樂觀的態度。
From a macro standpoint, US economy remains on firm footing supported by healthy employment, strong corporate profit growth, and a resilient US consumer, all backed by an administration that is pro-growth with more rational regulation which we believe will continue to drive demand for hotels.
從宏觀角度來看,美國經濟依然穩固,得益於健康的就業、強勁的企業利潤增長和富有韌性的美國消費者,所有這些都得到了支持增長、監管更加合理的政府的支持,我們相信這將繼續推動對酒店的需求。
That said, some uncertainty remains, and it's hard to predict how the new administration's policies will impact this business momentum. For Park specifically, we remain laser focused on what we can control and believe our portfolio is well-positioned for long term growth based on the strategic investments we've made as well as our presence in markets with limited supply growth.
儘管如此,仍存在一些不確定性,很難預測新政府的政策將如何影響這項商業動能。具體來說,對於 Park 而言,我們仍然專注於我們能夠控制的事情,並相信基於我們所做的戰略投資以及我們在供應增長有限的市場中的存在,我們的投資組合已做好長期增長的準備。
More specifically, we expect 2025 to be a tale of two halves for the portfolio beginning with a first quarter that is lapping a tough comparison to last year in which the total portfolio outperformed in just about every market with RevPAR growth of 8%.
更具體地說,我們預計 2025 年的投資組合將分為兩個半部分,首先是第一季度,與去年相比,整個投資組合在幾乎所有市場都表現出色,RevPAR 成長率為 8%。
Therefore, we expect RevPAR to be slightly negative in the first quarter, followed by positive growth in the second quarter and then rounding out the year with a strong second half aided by easier comparisons as we lap the strike disruption from last year.
因此,我們預計第一季 RevPAR 將略微出現負值,第二季將出現正成長,而下半年將迎來強勁成長,這得益於我們擺脫了去年罷工的影響,從而更容易進行比較。
The group segment is expected to remain one of the strongest segments with revenue pace of 6%, complemented by improving corporate business transient and low single digit leisure transient growth.
預計團體業務仍將是表現最強勁的業務之一,收入增長率為 6%,同時企業業務瞬時增長和低個位數休閒瞬時增長也將得到補充。
For the year, we are expecting top line comparable RevPAR growth of 0% to 3%, reflecting several key factors, including a slower first quarter, 110 basis points of disruption from the planned closure of the Royal Palm resort beginning in May and our cautious optimism about the US economy as we monitor developments under the new administration.
對於今年,我們預計可比 RevPAR 的營收成長率將在 0% 至 3% 之間,這反映了幾個關鍵因素,包括第一季度成長放緩、5 月份皇家棕櫚度假村計劃關閉帶來的 110 個基點的干擾,以及我們對美國經濟的謹慎樂觀態度,因為我們正在關注新政府的發展。
Excluding Miami, however, growth improves by 110 basis points, at the midpoint to 2.6% for the year, reflecting the overall strength of the broader portfolio.
然而,如果不包括邁阿密,成長率將提高 110 個基點,全年中位數為 2.6%,反映出更廣泛投資組合的整體實力。
Sean will provide more details about guidance in his prepared remarks.
肖恩將在其準備好的演講中提供有關指導的更多細節。
In summary, I wanted to emphasize that 2024 was another transformative year in which we achieved key objectives that have positioned our company for accelerated growth over time. Our strategic ROI investments continue to yield strong returns and our return of over $400 million of capital to shareholders last year between dividends and stock repurchases which totaled 8 million shares at values well below net asset value underscores our commitment to maximizing shareholder value.
總而言之,我想強調的是,2024 年是另一個變革之年,我們實現了關鍵目標,為公司未來加速成長奠定了基礎。我們的策略性投資報酬率 (ROI) 投資持續產生強勁回報,去年我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了超過 4 億美元的資本,總計 800 萬股,價值遠低於淨資產價值,這凸顯了我們致力於最大化股東價值的承諾。
We are optimistic about our long-term growth prospects as we unlock the significant embedded value within our portfolio with renovation projects such as the Royal Palm repositioning in Miami while we further enhance the overall quality of our core portfolio through our ongoing capital recycling efforts.
我們對我們的長期成長前景持樂觀態度,因為我們透過邁阿密皇家棕櫚酒店重新定位等翻新項目釋放了我們投資組合中的巨大內在價值,同時我們透過持續的資本回收努力進一步提高了核心投資組合的整體品質。
And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Sean.
說完這些,我想把電話轉給肖恩。
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Thanks, Tom.
謝謝,湯姆。
As Tom noted, we were very pleased with our fourth quarter performance. Q4 RevPAR was $179, a decline of 1.4%. However, if you were to exclude the impact from strike activity in the quarter at the four affected hotels, Q4 RevPAR increased 3.1% year over year.
正如湯姆所說,我們對第四季的表現非常滿意。第四季每間可用客房收入為 179 美元,下降 1.4%。然而,如果排除本季受影響的四家飯店罷工活動的影響,第四季 RevPAR 較去年同期成長 3.1%。
Occupancy for the quarter was 69.9% and ADR was $256. Q4 hotel revenue was $600 million while hotel adjusted EBITDA was $147 million, resulting in hotel adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.6% or 28.1% if you were to exclude the $28 million of EBITDA disruption from strike activity during the quarter, resulting in margin expansion of nearly 20 basis points.
本季的入住率為 69.9%,平均房價為 256 美元。第四季飯店營收為 6 億美元,而飯店調整後 EBITDA 為 1.47 億美元,導致飯店調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 24.6% 或 28.1%(如果排除本季罷工活動造成的 2,800 萬美元 EBITDA 中斷),導致利潤率擴大近 20 個基點。
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $138 million and adjusted FFO per share was $0.39. For the full year, RevPAR was up 2.9% versus 2024, and hotel adjusted EBITDA margin was 27.5%, or down 70 basis points versus last year.
第四季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.38 億美元,調整後的每股 FFO 為 0.39 美元。全年而言,RevPAR 較 2024 年成長 2.9%,飯店調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 27.5%,較去年下降 70 個基點。
When adjusting for the strike disruption, full year RevPAR increased 4.2% while hotel adjusted EBITDA margin improved by approximately 30 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $652 million inclusive of $32 million of strike impact, and adjusted FFO per share was $2.06.
經罷工影響調整後,全年 RevPAR 成長 4.2%,而飯店調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率提高了約 30 個基點。本年度調整後 EBITDA 為 6.52 億美元(包括 3,200 萬美元的罷工影響),調整後每股 FFO 為 2.06 美元。
In terms of CapEx, during 2024, we reinvested approximately $230 million into our portfolio, prioritizing upgrades and resiliency work aimed at elevating the guests' experience and strengthening our assets. This included the first phase of a two-phased comprehensive guest room renovation at the famed Rainbow Tower in Waikiki and the Palace tower at the Hilton Waikoloa resort on the Big Island as well as the first of a three-phased guest room renovation of the 1,167 room Main Tower at the Hilton New Orleans Riverside.
在資本支出方面,2024 年,我們向我們的投資組合中重新投資了約 2.3 億美元,優先進行升級和彈性工作,旨在提升客人體驗並增強我們的資產。其中包括對著名的威基基彩虹塔和大島希爾頓威可洛亞度假村宮殿塔進行兩期綜合客房翻新的第一期工程,以及對新奧爾良河畔希爾頓酒店 1,167 間客房主塔進行三期客房翻新的第一期工程。
In 2025, we will execute the second and final phase of guest room renovations at both towers in Hawaii with a total investment of $75 million. Both renovations are scheduled to start in Q3 of this year and extend through early 2026.
2025年,我們將對夏威夷的兩座塔樓進行第二階段也是最後一階段的客房裝修,總投資額為7,500萬美元。兩項翻修工程計劃於今年第三季開始,並持續到 2026 年初。
Additionally, in New Orleans, we plan to launch phase two of the guest room renovation, a $31 million investment covering 428 rooms. This project, which has nearly double the rooms covered last year in phase one, is scheduled to begin in the second quarter of this year and continue through year-end.
此外,在新奧爾良,我們計劃啟動客房翻新工程的第二階段,投資 3,100 萬美元,涵蓋 428 間客房。該計畫第一階段的房間數量幾乎是去年的兩倍,並計劃在今年第二季啟動,持續到年底。
With respect to operational excellence, we have proactively transitioned operating partners at six of our hotels over the past six months, three of which were converted to franchise models with impacted hotels, including the Royal Palm in Miami, Hilton, Denver, Hyatt Centric at Fisherman's Wharf in San Francisco, Marriott Newton in Boston, and both of our Chicago W hotels, which have also been rebranded as part of this strategic shift.
在卓越營運方面,我們在過去六個月中主動更換了旗下六家酒店的營運合作夥伴,其中三家已轉為特許經營模式,受影響的酒店包括邁阿密皇家棕櫚酒店、丹佛希爾頓酒店、舊金山漁人碼頭凱悅尚萃酒店、波士頓牛頓萬豪酒店以及我們位於芝加哥的兩家 W 酒店,作為這一戰略轉變的一部分,這些酒店也進行了品牌重塑。
Overall, we are very excited about the upside potential at each of these hotels, further underscoring cost savings.
總體而言,我們對這些酒店的上升潛力感到非常興奮,進一步強調了成本節約。
Turning to guidance. As Tom noted, we are establishing full-year 2025 RevPAR guidance of $187 to $192 or year to year growth of 0% to 3% while hotel adjusting EBITDA margin is expected to be between 26.1% and 27.7%, or a 60 basis point decrease to 2024 at the midpoint.
轉向指導。正如湯姆所指出的,我們制定的 2025 年全年 RevPAR 指導值為 187 美元至 192 美元,或同比增長 0% 至 3%,而酒店調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預計在 26.1% 至 27.7% 之間,或比 2024 年中點下降 60 個基點下降 60 個基點下降 60 個基點。
With respect to earnings, we are forecasting adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $610 million to $670 million and adjusted FFO per share guidance is forecast to be between $1.90 to $2.20.
就收益而言,我們預測調整後的 EBITDA 將在 6.1 億美元至 6.7 億美元之間,調整後的每股 FFO 指引預計在 1.90 美元至 2.20 美元之間。
Assumed in our 2025 guidance is approximately $17 million of expected EBITDA displacement associated with our Royal Palm renovation for the remainder of the year. Excluding the Miami renovation, RevPAR guidance would improve by 110 basis points at the midpoint to approximately 1% to 4% for the full year of 2025.
我們根據 2025 年的預期,假設今年剩餘時間內與皇家棕櫚樹翻新工程相關的 EBITDA 預計將減少約 1,700 萬美元。不計邁阿密的翻新工程,2025 年全年的 RevPAR 預期中位數將提高 110 個基點,達到約 1% 至 4%。
With respect to expense growth, our guidance implies comparable hotel operating expenses increase by 3% to 4% over the prior year period. Looking closer at the first quarter, as previously disclosed, Q1 faces tough year over year comparisons with Q1 2024 results benefiting from exceptionally strong group performance, leading to an 8% increase in RevPAR while earnings were positively impacted by nearly $10 million of grants and state employment tax refunds received during the quarter last year, resulting in approximately 150 basis points of EBITDA margin tailwind.
關於費用成長,我們的指導意味著可比飯店營運費用比去年同期增加 3% 至 4%。仔細觀察第一季度,如前所述,第一季度與 2024 年第一季度的業績相比面臨嚴峻的同比挑戰,得益於集團業績異常強勁,RevPAR 增長了 8%,而盈利受到去年同期收到的近 1000 萬美元補助和州就業稅退稅的積極影響,導致 EBITDA 利潤率順基上漲約 150 個風基。
January 2025 RevPAR finished 2.7% lower than the prior year period, driven by tougher comparisons in Hawaii, Chicago, Boston, and Silicon Valley, partially offset by ongoing strength at Bonnet Creek and Casa Marina.
2025 年 1 月,RevPAR 比去年同期下降 2.7%,原因是夏威夷、芝加哥、波士頓和矽谷的業績表現更為糟糕,但 Bonnet Creek 和 Casa Marina 的持續強勁表現部分抵消了這一影響。
However, portfolio performance compared to last year is expected to improve throughout the quarter, and with February outperforming prior forecasts, we currently anticipate the first quarter to be down slightly to last year.
然而,與去年相比,整個季度預計的投資組合表現將會改善,而且由於 2 月的表現超出了先前的預測,我們目前預計第一季的表現將略低於去年。
To address each of your questions, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.
為了回答您的每一個問題,我們要求您將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上。
Operator, may we have the first question, please?
接線員,我們可以問第一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Floris van Dijkum, Compass Point.
弗洛里斯·範迪庫姆,羅盤點。
Floris van Dijkum - Analyst
Floris van Dijkum - Analyst
So the disposition target that you've laid out, the $300 million to $400 million, that only covers, as far as I can tell, a portion of your non-core assets. You've got another, probably at least half of your non-core EBITDA that's probably left for sale.
因此,據我所知,您所設定的處置目標是 3 億至 4 億美元,僅涵蓋部分非核心資產。您還有另外一部分,可能至少有一半的非核心 EBITDA 可以出售。
Can you talk -- walk us through how you plan to deploy that capital? What percentage could we expect is going to be spent on ROI projects versus potential share buybacks?
您能跟我們講講您計劃如何部署這些資本嗎?我們預計用於投資回報項目和潛在股票回購的資金佔比是多少?
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Thank you for the question, Floris. I think that it's important to sort of level set. I think we've consistently shown as a team our ability to recycle capital. If you think back from the spin now, we have sold or disposed of 45 hotels for about $3 billion.
是的。謝謝你的提問,弗洛里斯。我認為進行水平設定非常重要。我認為我們作為一個團隊已經不斷展現出我們回收資本的能力。如果你現在回想一下,我們已經以約 30 億美元的價格出售或處置了 45 家飯店。
We've been very thoughtful about it. Even under difficult circumstances, we've been able to achieve that and at least some portion of that objective each year. Last year, obviously selling about $200 million. Tom Morey, our Chief Investment Officer and his team are diligently working and we've set an aggressive target in this environment of about $300 million to $400 million.
我們對此進行了深思熟慮。即使在困難的情況下,我們每年也能夠實現這一目標,並且至少實現部分目標。去年,顯然銷售額約2億美元。我們的首席投資長湯姆·莫雷 (Tom Morey) 和他的團隊正在勤奮工作,我們在這種環境下設定了一個積極的目標,約 3 億至 4 億美元。
We will use. We'll wait and look for how best to reallocate that capital, but you can expect obviously, we're going to continue to invest in our core portfolio. We believe passionately that we can generate really higher yields from development projects than we can from acquisition projects at this point.
我們將使用。我們將等待並尋找如何最好地重新分配這些資本,但你顯然可以預料到,我們將繼續投資我們的核心投資組合。我們堅信,目前,開發案能為我們帶來比收購案更高的收益。
So that's sort of point one.
這就是第一點。
Point two, we will continue to use proceeds to pay down debt. I want to make sure that the balance sheet remains in great shape and that we've got liquidity. And then opportunistically, we will look from time to time in buying back shares where it makes sense.
第二點,我們將繼續利用收益償還債務。我想確保資產負債表保持良好狀態並且我們擁有流動性。然後,我們會適時尋找機會,在合理的情況下回購股票。
Obviously, we continue to trade at a really significant discount to NAV and the team is laser focused on doing everything we can to close that gap as quickly as possible.
顯然,我們繼續以比資產淨值大幅折扣的價格進行交易,並且團隊正全神貫注於盡一切努力盡快縮小差距。
Floris van Dijkum - Analyst
Floris van Dijkum - Analyst
Maybe my follow up is and maybe this is more pointed towards Sean. I know it's early, but how are you thinking about the $1.2 billion CMBS debt on Hawaiian Village? And you have flexibility obviously with cash on the balance sheet, potential more non-core sales. How do you think your balance sheet is going to look or how will you address that refinancing in '26?
也許我的後續行動是,也許這更針對肖恩。我知道現在還為時過早,但您如何看待夏威夷村的 12 億美元 CMBS 債務?而且,資產負債表上的現金顯然具有靈活性,可以實現更多非核心銷售。您認為您的資產負債表將會是什麼樣子,或者您將如何在 26 年解決再融資問題?
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Yeah. Thanks for the comment or question, Floris.
是的。感謝您的評論或提問,Floris。
Yeah, to just reiterate what you're thinking, and I would say it's $1.4 billion of CMBS debt comes due matures in the second half of '26 when you include the Hyatt Regency, Boston asset as well with Hawaiian Village. I think in the end, we have access to a number of debt capital markets.
是的,只是重申你的想法,我想說,如果算上凱悅酒店、波士頓資產以及夏威夷村,14 億美元的 CMBS 債務將在 26 年下半年到期。我認為最終我們可以進入多個債務資本市場。
We continue to monitor them, talk with our bankers about some of the strategies and thinking about doing this, but we're certainly weighing the cost, tenure, looking at our maturity table, flexibility of the capital, as well as timing of the asset sales as you noted as Tom talked through.
我們會繼續監控它們,與我們的銀行家討論一些策略並考慮這樣做,但我們肯定會權衡成本、期限、查看我們的到期表、資本的靈活性以及資產出售的時機,正如您在湯姆談到的那樣。
So kind of putting all that together, it is early. We continue to monitor to the extent market conditions change. We feel like it compels us to go earlier. Certainly, you'll see that activity as we at least take a look to take maybe a portion of that CMBS off of the table.
所以把所有這些放在一起,現在還為時過早。我們將繼續監測市場狀況的變化。我們覺得這迫使我們不得不早點出發。當然,你會看到這種活動,因為我們至少會考慮從桌面上拿走一部分 CMBS。
So I think as we go further into the year, I think you'll see us address at least a portion of that. All that said, I would say even one scenario out there is the Hawaiian Village obviously continues to perform really well and certainly a lot better. It's produced a lot more EBITDA and cash flow than it did when we put this CMBS debt in place back in 2016.
因此,我認為隨著時間的流逝,您會看到我們至少解決其中的一部分問題。儘管如此,我想說,即使只有一種情況,夏威夷村的表現顯然仍然非常好,而且肯定會好得多。與 2016 年我們實施 CMBS 債務時相比,它產生的 EBITDA 和現金流要多得多。
So it certainly supports even a higher level of debt on it at this point. So that's an option. I wouldn't say it's our first option, but again, it goes back to saying we have a lot of scenarios we can look at with all the access that we have to the debt markets.
因此,目前它肯定會支持更高水準的債務。所以這是一個選擇。我不會說這是我們的首選,但話說回來,我們有很多方案可以利用,我們可以利用我們進入債務市場的所有管道來考慮。
Again, proving that we did that last year when we access both term loan A, bank capital as well as bond capital. And again, we'll look at some of those markets as well as as we look to this solution.
再次證明,去年當我們獲得定期貸款 A、銀行資本以及債券資本時,我們做到了這一點。再次,我們將關注其中的一些市場並尋找這個解決方案。
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Floris, the other thing that I would add, just I agree with everything that Sean has said is, and Sean and the team have done just a fabulous job. And when you think about it even coming out of the pandemic, we paid all the banks back. The credibility that we have with the street gives us optionality as strong as anybody in our peer set.
弗洛里斯,我想補充的另一件事是,我同意肖恩所說的一切,肖恩和他的團隊做得非常出色。想想看,即使疫情結束後,我們也償還了所有銀行的債務。我們在華爾街享有的信譽使我們擁有與同行一樣強大的選擇權。
And so Sean and team are already out in front of this, looking at different options. Obviously, it doesn't mature late until the second half of '26. But you can expect us to be proactive, to be disciplined and really under Sean's leadership, we'll find the right balance.
因此,肖恩和他的團隊已經開始著手解決這個問題,尋找不同的選擇。顯然,它直到 26 年下半年才成熟。但你可以期待我們積極主動、嚴守紀律,在肖恩的領導下,我們會找到正確的平衡。
Operator
Operator
Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.
杜安‧芬尼格沃斯 (Duane Pfennigwerth),Evercore ISI。
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
I wonder if you can walk us through the expectation for Hawaii in total over the course of the year. Maybe what growth or a lack of growth look like in Q1, Q3 is all the growth kind of Q4 weighted in that market in total.
我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹今年對夏威夷的整體預期。也許第一季和第三季的成長或缺乏成長都是該市場在第四季度整體成長的加權結果。
And then one of the questions we get from clients is how to convert the pacing stats you give to EBITDA. So for example, Waikoloa Group pays up 70%. How does that translate to EBITDA growth for that asset?
然後,我們從客戶那裡得到的一個問題是如何將您提供的步調統計資料轉換為 EBITDA。例如,Waikoloa Group 支付了 70%。這如何轉化為該資產的 EBITDA 成長?
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Let me grab the first part of it. Sean can talk a little about the EBITDA side.
是的。讓我抓住它的第一部分。肖恩可以稍微談談 EBITDA 方面。
I think it's important to kind of again level set. If you look historically, demand into the Islands, north of $10 million -- $8.5 million to $9.5 million plus or minus. Japan has always been about -- Japanese have been about $1.5 million of that.
我認為再次進行水平設定非常重要。如果你回顧歷史,你會發現群島的需求在 1000 萬美元以上,在 850 萬美元到 950 萬美元之間。日本一直佔有約 150 萬美元。
If you look back to 2023, it was around $600,000. We expected last year to be probably in that $800,000 range. Ended about $720,000 plus or minus, still 22% above the prior year. And then still about 54% beneath 2019.
如果回顧 2023 年,這個數字約為 60 萬美元。我們預計去年的收入可能在 80 萬美元左右。最終約為 72 萬美元左右,仍比前一年高出 22%。但仍比 2019 年低約 54%。
This year, the current estimate is about 930,000 visitors right now, down from closer to 1 million. So you're still about 41% beneath 2019. So as you think about what we're seeing right now, international arrivals are up about 5.5%, but arrivals from Japan are up about 14% same time last year, including up about -- and it includes up about 22% plus or minus in January.
今年,目前預計遊客人數約 93 萬,低於先前的近 100 萬。因此,與 2019 年相比,仍低 41% 左右。所以,想想我們現在看到的情況,國際遊客人數增加了約 5.5%,但來自日本的遊客人數比去年同期增加了約 14%,其中 1 月份增加了約 22%(上下浮動)。
And even the domestic arrivals into O'ahu are up about 3.7% over last year. And there are 21% plus or minus ahead of 2019, partially covering some of that international deficit. So just look, we have no doubt that Hawaii is going to ramp up.
甚至抵達瓦胡島的國內遊客數量也比去年增加了約 3.7%。2019 年的漲幅為 21%,部分彌補了國際赤字。所以看看吧,我們毫不懷疑夏威夷將會崛起。
We certainly, as Sean outlined, expect that the first quarter is going to be soft. We know that. We expect obviously the second half of the year to a tale of two halves as Sean outlined. And we expect significant increase obviously in Q3, Q4.
正如肖恩所概述的,我們當然預計第一季將會表現疲軟。我們知道這一點。正如肖恩所概述的,我們顯然預計今年下半年將出現兩個不同的情況。我們預計第三季和第四季將大幅成長。
And we expect both properties to be in the low to mid single digit at the end of the year in RevPAR growth. So I feel very confident. Seeing very good trends. Southwest has also announced obviously 33 red-eye flights that they're going to be adding. Alaskan Airlines and their acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines, we expect that that's obviously going to be adding more capacity.
我們預計,到今年年底,這兩家酒店的 RevPAR 成長率都將達到低至個位數。所以我感到非常有信心。看到了非常好的趨勢。西南航空也宣布將增加 33 個紅眼航班。阿拉斯加航空及其對夏威夷航空的收購,我們預計這顯然會增加運力。
So clearly, the domestic traveler continues to really penetrate Hawaii, which we think is going to be good long term. And we have no doubt that as as the dollar and yen settle and some of the surcharges go away, you're going to see the Japanese travelers sort of back.
顯然,國內遊客繼續湧入夏威夷,我們認為從長遠來看這將是件好事。我們堅信,隨著美元和日圓匯率穩定以及部分附加費的取消,日本遊客將會回流。
Will it be back to the levels that we had historically seen? Certainly remains to see over time. But we're currently forecasting in that '27, '28 window to get back to that sort of 1.5 million visitors into the Hawaiian Islands.
它會回到我們歷史上所見過的水平嗎?當然,隨著時間的推移,情況還有待觀察。但我們目前預測,27、28 年夏威夷群島的遊客人數將回升至 150 萬人。
So with that, let me hand it off to Sean and he'll provide some additional color on it.
因此,讓我將其交給肖恩 (Sean),他會提供一些額外的說明。
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Yeah. I mean the -- I would say it's not an easy formula to think through how you translate kind of group pace into EBITDA conversion. A couple of components that go into it, not to get down to in too much detail. But if you think about that group pace, it's certainly very strong. Speaks to strength of that market with I think groups kind of cycling back into the Big Island, we had a number of hotels, including ours, under renovation in the comp set there.
是的。我的意思是——我想說,思考如何將團體步伐轉化為 EBITDA 轉換並不是一個簡單的公式。其中涉及幾個組件,不必太詳細地討論。但如果你考慮集體步伐,它肯定非常強勁。我認為這說明了該市場的實力,因為團體騎車返回大島,我們在那裡的同類酒店中有許多酒店(包括我們的酒店)正在裝修。
And so I think you're seeing the benefits of people seeing better product coming online here and looking to go there for their group activity. That said, I mean you are displacing transient. And group is well a meaningful component. It's about 20%, I would say kind of max on peak of the demand of that asset.
因此,我認為您看到了人們在這裡看到更好的產品上線並希望在那裡進行團體活動的好處。話雖如此,我的意思是你正在取代瞬態。而群體也是一個有意義的組成部分。大約是 20%,我想說這是該資產需求的最高高峰。
So it's good. It's obviously great. You get better banqueting -- catering contribution. I think we're looking to be up on 20%-plus this year for Waikoloa given that group pace is in demand. But you are offsetting transient customers.
所以這很好。這顯然很棒。您將獲得更好的宴會——餐飲貢獻。我認為,考慮到團體速度的需求,我們希望今年 Waikoloa 的成長率能超過 20%。但您正在抵消臨時客戶。
And so when you think about the net net impact of RevPAR with that, again 20% of being group, 80% being transient, I think what you get to is somewhat of a growth, still growth. I would say it's kind of on the higher end of our range, kind of growth for Waikoloa year over year on the RevPAR side.
因此,當您考慮 RevPAR 的淨影響時,再次考慮到 20% 是團體收入,80% 是臨時收入,我認為您獲得的是某種程度上的成長,仍然是成長。我想說,這算是我們產品範圍的高端,從 RevPAR 來看,Waikoloa 酒店的營收年增了不少。
But certainly, contributes to what we see in terms of a better total RevPAR profile for not only that asset, but the portfolio overall where we think it's about, call it, 100 basis points in addition to the room RevPAR growth for the portfolio.
但可以肯定的是,這不僅有助於改善該資產的整體 RevPAR 狀況,而且有助於改善整個投資組合的 RevPAR 狀況,我們認為這除了投資組合的 RevPAR 成長空間外,還有助於提高 100 個基點。
So those kinds of things contribute to it. I think it's a better mix. And certainly, you want to establish that foundation to help drive, and yield to that transient. And as that kind of comes back and we think the market, that's kind of what factors in the wider range. It's a little bit of uncertainty as to how that demand comes back, but certainly could be some upside that you could garner with that strong foundation.
所以這些事情都會造成這種情況。我認為這是一個更好的組合。當然,您希望建立這個基礎來幫助推動並應對這種瞬變。隨著這種情況的回歸,我們認為市場是影響更廣泛範圍的因素。這種需求如何回升還有一點不確定性,但憑藉著強大的基礎,你肯定會獲得一些好處。
So that all, it's a lot to say to say how does it translate to EBITDA. I think in the end, you've got positive RevPAR growth, positive revenue growth. We have to manage some of the expense assumptions as well to what -- as you think about the overall algorithm of converting group pace down to EBITDA.
所以,關於如何將其轉化為 EBITDA,有很多話要說。我認為最終您將獲得正的 RevPAR 成長和正的收入成長。我們還必須管理一些費用假設——當您考慮將集團步伐轉換為 EBITDA 的整體演算法時。
Operator
Operator
David Katz, Jefferies.
傑富瑞的戴維·卡茨。
David Katz - Analyst
David Katz - Analyst
I wanted to just circle back on the Royal Palm, having toured it not too long ago. When finished, right, it's a meaningful project. Can you just talk about its intended positioning within Miami, which obviously a big important hot market? Where does it fit in the landscape there as you've laid out?
我剛剛參觀過皇家棕櫚樹,所以我想再回去一趟。一旦完成,對,這是一個有意義的項目。您能否談談它在邁阿密的預期定位?邁阿密顯然是一個重要的熱門市場。按照您佈置的景觀,它位於哪裡?
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. It's a great question, David.
是的。這是一個很好的問題,大衛。
Like you have spent a lot of time down in Miami, I walked it recently with the team. A huge credit to Carl Mayfield who heads our Design and Construction. A team who, by the way, David, is best in class. There isn't anybody in the lodging sector, certainly the REIT sector that has his experience and knowledge.
就像你在邁阿密度過了很多時間一樣,我最近也和團隊一起走過這條路。非常感謝負責我們設計和施工的 Carl Mayfield。順便說一句,大衛,這是一支最好的球隊。住宿業,當然還有房地產投資信託基金 (REIT) 行業,沒有人擁有他這樣的經驗和知識。
And I think his track record really demonstrates that. And you think about our success in Bonnet Creek, you think about obviously our success down in Casa Marina, we have studied Royal Palm carefully for more than a year.
我認為他的過往記錄確實證明了這一點。想想我們在 Bonnet Creek 的成功,想想我們在 Casa Marina 的成功,我們對皇家棕櫚樹進行了一年多的仔細研究。
And really with given the historic nature, given the three buildings and how best to really activate and take advantage of that bull's eye location. And when you also step back and think about all of the high-end, the Faena, North Miami Beach, what you have with obviously the Four Seasons and the Ritz-Carlton, not close from South Beach and obviously the St. Regis.
並且真正考慮到歷史性質,考慮到這三座建築以及如何最好地激活和利用這個最佳位置。當你退一步思考所有的高級酒店時,你會發現費納酒店、北邁阿密海灘、四季酒店和麗思卡爾頓酒店,距離南海灘不遠,還有瑞吉酒店。
And you've got on deck here the all bears that's coming, Rosewood coming, the [Amman] obviously coming, the [Andas] which eventually will open. I mean all of that we see Royal Palm being tucked underneath that. We don't see taking it to that level. So certainly, an upper upscale lifestyle.
你已經看到了即將到來的所有熊,Rosewood 即將到來,[Amman] 顯然也即將到來,[Andas] 最終也將開放。我的意思是,我們看到皇家棕櫚樹就藏在下面。我們認為不會達到那個水平。所以這無疑是一種高檔的生活方式。
But we think we can tuck under and really raise rate significantly. And give what is a varied and diverse customer base. And just given what's happening in Miami, it's -- we don't see that slowing down. We see that just accelerating. So as we talk about the opportunity to really double EBITDA, we believe that passionately.
但我們認為我們可以採取進一步行動並大幅提高利率。並提供多樣化、多元化的客戶群。考慮到邁阿密正在發生的事情,我們認為這種趨勢不會放緩。我們看到這一進程正在加速。因此,當我們談論真正使 EBITDA 翻倍的機會時,我們對此充滿熱情。
And we believe really changing the operation with a more activated public space, different food and beverage outlets taking the pool on the second floor and really making that the kind of views that we'll have. Obviously a renovated room product and really adding 11 keys.
我們相信,透過更活躍的公共空間、不同的餐飲店以及二樓的游泳池,真正改變營運方式,讓我們能夠欣賞到這樣的景色。顯然是經過翻新的房間產品,並且確實增加了 11 把鑰匙。
So we are really, really excited about this. We hate to close a hotel, but really to do this right, it's the right business decision. And we think it's going to create really long term value for shareholders. So very excited about it, and we don't see any slowing down.
所以我們對此真的非常興奮。我們不想關閉酒店,但要真正做好這件事,這是一個正確的商業決策。我們認為這將為股東創造真正的長期價值。我們對此感到非常興奮,而且我們沒有看到任何放緩的跡象。
If you look over the last 20 years, what are the three markets that are certainly been among the strongest? It's really Hawaii, it's Orlando, it's Miami, it's Key West. And in all of those markets, Park is really well positioned.
如果回顧過去 20 年,哪三個市場無疑是最強勁的市場?它實際上是夏威夷、奧蘭多、邁阿密、基韋斯特。在所有這些市場中,Park 都佔據著非常有利的地位。
I'm not sure we get the kind of credit from shareholders that we should when you carefully look at the quality of the real estate that we have in all of those markets.
當你仔細觀察我們在所有這些市場中的房地產品質時,我不確定我們是否獲得了應有的股東信任。
Operator
Operator
Smedes Rose, Citi.
花旗銀行的斯梅德斯‧羅斯 (Smedes Rose)。
Smedes Rose - Analyst
Smedes Rose - Analyst
I wanted to ask you on the Bonnet Creek asset. It looks like it came in the low $80 millions. I think that's kind of around the range you would target it to kind of post investment. And it just, do you feel like that's kind of stabilized here or do you think there's sort of significant upside or just kind of sort of more normalized organic growth?
我想問您有關 Bonnet Creek 資產的問題。看起來其價值在 8,000 萬美元左右。我認為這大致上就是您在投資後所要達到的範圍。那麼您覺得現在這種情況是否已經穩定下來了,或者您認為還有顯著的上升空間,或者只是更正常的有機增長?
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we are incredibly bullish, Smedes. And think that that's, again in the first year seeing RevPAR up 17% and obviously EBITDA, as you know, going from $60 million to about $82 million, up 36% and the ability to really layer in multiple groups, we could not be more excited.
是的,我們非常樂觀,斯梅德斯。想想看,第一年 RevPAR 就上漲了 17%,EBITDA 顯然也從 6,000 萬美元增加到 8,200 萬美元左右,上漲了 36%,而且能夠真正在多個群體中進行分層,我們對此感到非常興奮。
Obviously, Condé Nast given the Waldorf, a top 10 rating globally, we are incredibly excited as you sort of look at group pace at Bonnet Creek and the Waldorf up about 15% in '25 and I think up another 20% plus or minus and what we see right now in '26.
顯然,康泰納仕將華爾道夫評為全球前 10 名,我們非常興奮,因為您可以看到 Bonnet Creek 和華爾道夫的集體進步在 2025 年上漲了約 15%,我認為還會再上漲 20% 左右,這與我們現在看到的 2026 年的情況相同。
So we are very, very encouraged as we look out. The other thing that really helps us too, Smedes, is as you think about citywides are up this year in Orlando, so that's certainly going to be a tailwind for the market. And then of course, Epic Universe which is going to be opening in May plus or minus.
因此,我們感到非常非常鼓舞。斯梅德斯,另一件對我們真正有幫助的事情是,正如你所想,今年奧蘭多的城市範圍都在擴大,所以這肯定會對市場產生推動作用。當然,Epic Universe 將於五月左右開放。
And the reported spend is about $6 billion and 50 experiences plus or minus. So we think that's only going to continue to benefit the overall market. And we certainly think that that's going to benefit Bonnet Creek and our assets in Orlando.
據報道,支出約 60 億美元,體驗形式約 50 種。因此我們認為這只會繼續有利於整個市場。我們當然認為這將有利於 Bonnet Creek 和我們在奧蘭多的資產。
Smedes Rose - Analyst
Smedes Rose - Analyst
And then if I could just ask one more. And maybe I missed this. So at the risk of embarrassing myself. I'll ask it anyway. The the W hotels in Chicago look like they've been renamed. And I was just wondering, does that brand switch help you maybe on CapEx requirements or would you expect operational improvements there or maybe you just could talk about that a little bit?
然後我是否可以再問一個問題。我可能錯過了這個。所以冒著讓自己難堪的風險。無論如何我都會問。芝加哥的 W 飯店看起來像是改名了。我只是想知道,品牌轉換是否有助於滿足您的資本支出要求,或者您期望在營運方面有所改進,或者您可以稍微談談這一點嗎?
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. We think on both sides. We think obviously the -- both expected obviously to be part of the tribute family, both having that flexibility, both having new operators. And we think leaner, more nimble. So we're very excited about that decision. As Sean noted in his prepared remarks, we've changed out really six operators.
是的。我們從兩個方面來思考。我們認為,顯然兩者都有望成為致敬系列的一部分,都具有這種靈活性,都擁有新的營運商。我們的思維更加精簡、更有彈性。所以我們對這個決定感到非常興奮。正如肖恩在準備好的演講中指出的那樣,我們實際上已經更換了六名操作員。
In this case, we're also changing converting to a franchise model certainly staying within the Marriott family. So really excited about these decisions. Again, credit to our asset management team and our development team that's worked very hard over the last year plus in discussions with Marriott to make that happen. And we think it's really a win-win for everybody.
在這種情況下,我們也將轉變為特許經營模式,當然仍保留在萬豪家族內。我對這些決定感到非常興奮。再次感謝我們的資產管理團隊和開發團隊,他們在過去的一年裡付出了巨大的努力,並與萬豪進行了討論,才使這一目標得以實現。我們認為這對每個人來說都是雙贏的。
Operator
Operator
Chris Woronka, Deutsche Bank.
德意志銀行的克里斯‧沃倫卡 (Chris Woronka)。
Chris Woronka - Analyst
Chris Woronka - Analyst
So if I could follow up a little bit on the Chicago. And maybe go just a little bit deeper. Tom, can you comment on whether those are longer term franchises with the new, I think ones that attribute ones at Marriott independent because I think it's pretty well known that Lakeshore was shopped a few times?
所以如果我可以稍微跟進一下芝加哥的情況。或許還可以進一步深入一點。湯姆,您能否評論一下這些是否是新的長期特許經營權,我認為那些屬於萬豪獨立的特許經營權,因為我認為眾所周知,Lakeshore 曾被收購過幾次?
And so does this -- this is what you've done with the change impact your ability to sell the assets, or how a buyer might view them as being long term encumbered or unencumbered by brands?
那麼,您所做的改變是否會影響您出售資產的能力,或者買家如何看待這些資產長期受到品牌的束縛或不受品牌的束縛?
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. We actually think it gives us more optionality, Chris, obviously having those being in a franchise situation, obviously having new operators. Again spend a lot of time with Marriott negotiating. And we didn't think either asset really were W caliber in terms of what Marriott was looking for.
是的。克里斯,我們實際上認為它給了我們更多的選擇權,顯然,這些都是特許經營的情況,顯然也有新的運營商。再次花費大量時間與萬豪進行談判。而且我們認為,就萬豪所尋求的而言,這兩項資產實際上都達不到 W 等級。
And we wanted the optionality of more of those soft brands. So we've found the right balance. We'll continue to look at how we can create shareholder value. And if that means selling or monetizing assets as we've demonstrated time and time again, we will certainly do that.
我們希望有更多這樣的軟品牌可供選擇。所以我們找到了正確的平衡點。我們將繼續研究如何創造股東價值。如果這意味著出售或貨幣化資產,正如我們一次又一次證明的那樣,我們肯定會這樣做。
But we are confident that we've arrived at the right decision, the right outcome here.
但我們確信,我們做出了正確的決定,並且取得了正確的結果。
Chris Woronka - Analyst
Chris Woronka - Analyst
Just to follow up, if I could, and that's on similar kind of question about Miami kind of post renovation. It sounds like you stay in the Marriott -- staying with the Tribute, but does that renovation -- I mean is there a reset of the franchise contract?
如果可以的話,我只是想跟進一下,這是關於邁阿密後期裝修的類似問題。聽起來你會留在萬豪酒店——留在 Tribute 酒店,但那次翻新——我的意思是特許經營合約是否會重新設定?
I think that was one of the first Tributes in the old Starwood portfolio in 2015 if I remember. So is there like a reset on? Are you going to be kind of wedded to Tribute Portfolio for that for much longer period, or are you still going to keep some optionality there?
如果我沒記錯的話,那是 2015 年舊喜達屋投資組合中首批 Tributes 酒店之一。那麼是否有重置的情況?您是否打算長期堅持 Tribute Portfolio 的策略,還是仍會保留一些可選性?
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
We have significant optionality there in your -- we've all been around a long time, Chris. In fact, it was the first Tribute is our understanding as well with Starwood. And really under the same term at this point doesn't mean that that can't change, but that's the current structure.
我們有相當大的選擇性——我們已經存在很長時間了,克里斯。事實上,據我們了解,這也是我們與喜達屋合作的首款 Tribute 車型。實際上,目前在同一期限下並不意味著不能改變,但這就是目前的結構。
And Marriott's been a great partner and been working with us. They can certainly speak for themselves, but the feedback that we've gotten is they are thrilled with our program, with our design features, how we're going to reimagine the public space, the food and beverage offerings.
萬豪一直是我們很好的合作夥伴,一直與我們合作。他們當然可以自己說話,但我們得到的回饋是,他們對我們的計劃、我們的設計特色、我們如何重新構想公共空間、食物和飲料供應感到非常興奮。
We are very excited about this. And again, a shout out to our team who have worked incredibly hard for more than a year as we've planned this out. And at the end of the peak season, we're going to hit the ground running with strong confidence that we will deliver before the World Cup of next year.
我們對此感到非常興奮。再次感謝我們的團隊,他們為制定這項計劃付出了一年多的辛勤努力。在旺季結束時,我們將滿懷信心地全力以赴,在明年世界盃之前完成任務。
Operator
Operator
Chris Darling, Green Street.
克里斯達林 (Chris Darling),綠街。
Christopher Darling - Analyst
Christopher Darling - Analyst
Tom, can you walk through your expectations for New York this year? Would be curious your perspective on the overall market as well as your Hilton Midtown specifically. And then additionally, would also be curious to hear about how you're thinking about margins at your property there.
湯姆,你能談談你對今年紐約的期望嗎?我很好奇您對整個市場以及希爾頓中城酒店的看法。另外,我還想知道您如何看待那裡的房產利潤。
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I mean if you think about New York, I mean obviously, we ended fourth quarter I think up about 3.5% in RevPAR and I think for the full year, just south of 4%. Group pace in '25, I think we're looking up about 10%. There's been little supply increase in New York.
是的。我的意思是,如果你想想紐約,很明顯,我們第四季結束時的 RevPAR 成長了約 3.5%,而我認為全年成長略低於 4%。我認為,25 年的集體步伐將加快約 10%。紐約的供應量幾乎沒有增加。
So '25, I think we're about 2% in the overall market. And continues to decline I think 0.5%, 0.6% in '26, and I think clearly just flat in 2027. And Manhattan supply has fallen, I think, 8%, 9% since 2019. So look, New York has turned out to be a stronger market.
所以'25,我認為我們在整個市場中佔有約 2% 的份額。我認為會繼續下降 0.5%,26 年會下降 0.6%,到 2027 年會持平。我認為,自 2019 年以來,曼哈頓的供應量下降了 8% 至 9%。由此可見,紐約已成為一個更強勁的市場。
Obviously, some of the restrictions that have been imposed and required on Airbnb have helped the market. Our hotel continues to gain market share. And there are really only two hotels that can handle large groups. So we're encouraged.
顯然,對 Airbnb 施加和要求的一些限制對市場有所幫助。我們的酒店的市場份額不斷擴大。但實際上只有兩家酒店可以接待大型團體。因此我們感到鼓舞。
And obviously, group room nights I think we're going to be down a little bit here in the first quarter, but we still expect that we're going to finish the year '25 probably in the low single digits in terms of RevPAR. That existing contract with labor doesn't expire until '26.
顯然,我認為第一季的團體客房入住晚會會略有下降,但我們仍然預計,到 2025 年,RevPAR 的增幅可能會達到個位數左右。現有的勞務合約要到 26 年才會到期。
I've got no comment on that as to when our operator will start to engage. But we -- I suspect that will be a 2026 execution. But we remain cautiously optimistic in New York. I think New York and when you think about return to office, you think about visitation, think about what's happening, it continues to be a solid market.
我對我們的運營商何時開始參與不予置評。但我們——我懷疑那將是在 2026 年執行。但我們對紐約仍持謹慎樂觀的態度。我認為紐約,當你考慮重返辦公室、考慮訪問量、考慮正在發生的事情時,它仍然是一個穩固的市場。
Christopher Darling - Analyst
Christopher Darling - Analyst
And then just one more. Shifting gears a little bit. Thinking about the transaction market, just curious your perspective. Do you see any increased appetite among private buyers to transact at scale, portfolio transactions, anything like that, or do you think it's really more of a kind of one-off deal situation still these days?
然後再來一個。稍微換一下檔位。考慮交易市場,只是好奇您的觀點。您是否發現私人買家對大規模交易、投資組合交易等的興趣增加,或者您認為目前這仍然是一種一次性交易的情況?
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. It's it's a great question, Chris.
是的。這是一個很好的問題,克里斯。
You would expect, obviously, rumors are there's some $400 billion of private equity real estate capital kind of on the sidelines. Obviously, that includes some of the large players, that also includes some small to mid-size players. You've got family officers and owner operators.
顯然,你會預料到,有傳言稱有大約 4000 億美元的私募股權房地產資本處於觀望狀態。顯然,其中包括一些大型企業,也包括一些中小型企業。你有家族官員和業主經營者。
I certainly think the debt markets are open. Pricing seems to have improved slightly. I would expect obviously that you're going to see sellers perhaps, I don't want to say capitulation, but I think the gap is narrowing between buyers and sellers.
我當然認為債務市場是開放的。定價似乎略有改善。我顯然預計你可能會看到賣家,我不想說投降,但我認為買家和賣家之間的差距正在縮小。
So I would expect the transaction market to continue to improve, probably more the second half of this year while I think there's optimism, certainly with the new administration, pro-growth, more rational regulation, expectation of lower taxes.
因此,我預期交易市場將繼續改善,可能在今年下半年,同時我認為人們是樂觀的,當然,在新政府的支持下,經濟成長、監管更加合理、稅收預期降低。
At some point, hopefully rates start to come in, but there is uncertainty. There's uncertainty obviously with inflation still coming in, still a little sticky. And obviously, the impact of some of the policy decisions that are being talked about, including tariffs. So I think there's still optimism but a little bit of wait and see.
希望利率在某個時候開始回升,但存在不確定性。顯然,通貨膨脹仍然存在不確定性,而且仍然有點棘手。顯然,我們正在討論的一些政策決定,包括關稅,會產生影響。所以我認為人們仍然持樂觀態度,但還需要一點觀望。
But we fully expect that we are going to be more active and we would expect to see our peers and others in the transaction market really pick up in the second half of the year.
但我們完全有信心,我們會更加積極,我們預計我們的同業和交易市場中的其他人將在下半年真正回升。
Chris, I think we've demonstrated again and as we said in our prepared remarks and I said earlier, look, when you've moved 45 hotels in the last five years or five years from the pandemic, I mean we have been as active and even in difficult circumstances, the pandemic, international assets, et cetera, we've been able to close deals and get deals done.
克里斯,我想我們已經再次證明了這一點,正如我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣,我之前也說過,你看,當你在過去五年或疫情爆發後的五年裡搬遷了 45 家酒店時,我的意思是我們一直很活躍,即使在困難的情況下,疫情、國際資產等等,我們都能夠達成交易並完成交易。
So I expect you'll continue to see that kind of execution from us.
因此我希望你們能繼續看到我們這樣的表現。
Operator
Operator
Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.
帕特里克·斯科爾斯(Patrick Scholes),Truist Securities。
Patrick C. Scholes - Analyst
Patrick C. Scholes - Analyst
We know that amongst international travelers, Canadian inbound is the most important international travel to traveler to Florida. Have you seen any impact on the propensity to visit your Florida properties from Canadian travelers given all of the attention and whatnot with tariffs?
我們知道,在國際遊客中,加拿大入境遊客是前往佛羅裡達州的最重要的國際遊客。考慮到關稅等因素引發的廣泛關注,您是否發現對加拿大遊客到訪您位於佛羅裡達州的酒店的意願有任何影響?
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
It's a great question. The answer is we have not at this point.
這是一個很好的問題。答案是,目前我們還沒有。
We continue to monitor that. And as you correctly pointed out, as you think about the inbound visitation, it's still about half of that coming from Canada and Mexico. So but at this point, we have not seen any softening or slowdown. And Florida and particularly our properties certainly remain strong and we are encouraged at this point.
我們將繼續監測此事。正如您正確指出的那樣,當您考慮入境旅遊時,其中大約一半來自加拿大和墨西哥。但目前為止,我們還沒有看到任何疲軟或放緩。佛羅裡達州,特別是我們的房產,肯定仍然保持強勁,這一點讓我們感到鼓舞。
Operator
Operator
Jay Kornreich, Wedbush Securities.
Jay Kornreich,韋德布希證券公司。
Jay Kornreich - Analyst
Jay Kornreich - Analyst
Just to ask a question going back to the outlook for 2025, there's a pretty wide range for adjusted EBITDA. So I was just curious if you can give any more of the puts and takes you're considering that might lead you to the high end versus the low end of that range.
只是想問一個關於 2025 年前景的問題,調整後的 EBITDA 範圍相當廣泛。所以我只是好奇您是否可以提供更多您正在考慮的可能使您達到該範圍的高端與低端的看跌期權和看漲期權。
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Again, I think just starting with the top line of 0% to 3%, certainly, a wider range that we've typically given we kind of ultimately widen the range out there for the EBITDA as well as we think through. Again, opportunities you're starting for one, you're starting with the negative softer first quarter we talked about I think certainly puts us to the lower end from a conservative standpoint.
再說一次,我認為只要從 0% 到 3% 的頂線開始,當然,我們通常會給出一個更大的範圍,我們最終會擴大 EBITDA 的範圍,以及我們仔細考慮的範圍。再說一次,你開始的機會之一是,你從我們談到的第一季的負面疲軟開始,我認為從保守的角度來看,這無疑將我們置於較低的水平。
And from an opportunistic standpoint, you think about Hawaii and kind of seeing through Q1 that we've seen pick up really starting to get back to levels that we saw or kind of equate to pre-strike levels. And so the question will be just kind of how much that kind of recover and build through the year that helps I think drive again the opportunity in top line of the range.
從機會主義的角度來看,想想夏威夷,透過第一季我們看到經濟開始回升到我們所看到的水平,或者說相當於襲擊前的水平。所以問題只是,我認為這種復甦和建設在全年能有多大程度上有助於再次推動該系列產品的高端發展機會。
So I think it's more kind of operational. I wouldn't say there's anything transactional in it in any sense. Just more kind of we think about the operational potential of Hawaii. And really the conservatism of kind of the the slower start to the quarter for Q1 -- the slow start of the year for Q1.
所以我認為它更具操作性。我不會說其中有任何交易性的東西。我們只是更多地考慮夏威夷的營運潛力。而實際上,第一季的開局比較慢,今年第一季的開局也比較慢,這種保守態度是錯的。
Jay Kornreich - Analyst
Jay Kornreich - Analyst
And then just as we're halfway through the first quarter, naturally, as you mentioned, there's a tough comp in Hawaii. But there should be some other markets with some one-time benefits such as the Super Bowl being in New Orleans, the inauguration in DC.
然後,就在第一季的中途,正如您所提到的,夏威夷的比賽很艱難。但應該還有一些其他市場可以帶來一些一次性好處,像是在新奧爾良舉行的超級盃、在華盛頓特區舉行的就職典禮。
Maybe is there any other just core portfolio or market comments that you would outline just in terms of as we think of performance so far in the quarter?
當我們考慮本季迄今的表現時,您是否還有其他核心投資組合或市場評論可以概述?
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I would say New Orleans is very strong, very encouraged.
是的,我想說新奧爾良非常強大,非常鼓舞人心。
As you think, I think January was a little softer and down 4% or 5% in New Orleans. But we were -- we had a, just given the location, a headquarter hotel, we had one of the teams. And we were up mid-teens. And RevPAR there and probably looking at a for our first quarter, probably up in the 5% to 7% range there.
正如您所想,我認為 1 月份新奧爾良的銷量會稍微疲軟一些,下降了 4% 或 5%。但是我們——我們有一個,只是給了位置,一個總部酒店,我們有其中一個團隊。那時我們已經十幾歲了。那裡的 RevPAR 可能會在第一季上漲 5% 到 7% 左右。
So certainly very strong. And as I've pointed out, I feel very good about what we're seeing in Florida and Orlando in particular and as we look out. And as Sean pointed out, Hawaii where we had a tough comp. And Hawaii is certainly going to be a little softer in the first quarter. No surprise there.
所以肯定非常強大。正如我所指出的,我對我們在佛羅裡達州、特別是奧蘭多看到的情況感到非常滿意。正如肖恩指出的那樣,我們在夏威夷的比賽非常激烈。夏威夷第一季的銷售情況肯定會稍微疲軟。這並不奇怪。
But as we look out to the second half of the year, very, very encouraged. And I gave you some of the stats of what we're seeing already both in employments, both in arrivals, both international as well as domestic.
但當我們展望下半年時,我們感到非常非常鼓舞。我向你們提供了我們已經看到的一些統計數據,包括就業、入境人數、國際和國內數據。
So certainly, expect first quarter down in that low single digit range plus or minus but very encouraged as we look out for the balance of the year.
因此,當然,預計第一季的銷售額將下降到個位數左右的低位,但當我們展望今年的平衡時,我們感到非常鼓舞。
Operator
Operator
Robin Farley, UBS.
瑞銀的羅賓法利。
Robin Farley - Analyst
Robin Farley - Analyst
On Miami, when you talked about doubling EBITDA there, is that something that you think you would ramp up to, or would you be at that rate in -- by 2027, understanding that next year is not a full year?
關於邁阿密,當您談到將那裡的 EBITDA 翻一番時,您認為您會逐步實現這一目標嗎?或者您會在 2027 年達到這一速度嗎?您知道明年不是全年嗎?
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I mean, obviously, we would, as we've seen obviously in both Casa and Bonnet, I mean obviously, you've seen a pretty quick ramp up. But I would see that as two to three years I think would be sort of a normal ramp up and the kind of a transformation that we're talking about. And also depending on how that market's doing.
是的。我的意思是,顯然,正如我們在 Casa 和 Bonnet 中看到的那樣,顯然,你已經看到了相當快速的成長。但我認為兩到三年的時間將是一種正常的成長,也是我們談論的那種轉變。這也取決於該市場的表現。
But when you're bringing in that kind of high-end product above us, we certainly think that gives us the right opportunity to sort of tuck underneath and really push rate. And given the premier location that we have in South Beach, we're very excited about the opportunity.
但是,當你把這種高端產品引入我們上面時,我們當然認為這給了我們一個很好的機會來隱藏價格並真正提高價格。鑑於我們在南海灘的優越地理位置,我們對這個機會感到非常興奮。
Robin Farley - Analyst
Robin Farley - Analyst
And maybe just one more on Q1. Just given the Easter shift would be kind of helping Q1. And others are talking about leisure demand still being up in '25 versus '24. Is there something in particular at a property or two that's maybe with a large group or something in last year's Q1 that you would call out as sort of the driver of the decline?
也許 Q1 上還有更多內容。考慮到復活節的轉變會對第一季有所幫助。其他人則表示,2025 年的休閒需求較 2024 年仍有所上升。您是否認為去年第一季某個或兩家可能屬於大型集團的物業出現了某些特殊情況,是導致業績下滑的原因之一?
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
The decline this year versus last year?
今年與去年相比下降了多少?
Robin Farley - Analyst
Robin Farley - Analyst
Yes. You're guiding to Q1 RevPAR while others are kind of calling out Q1, kind of getting from the Easter shift. And just wondering if there's something in particular for your comp. Others are talking about leisure still being up. I know you said it was obviously 8% growth last year.
是的。您正在指導 Q1 RevPAR,而其他人則在呼籲 Q1,有點像從復活節轉變而來。我只是想知道您的公司是否有特別的東西。其他人則在談論休閒仍在繼續。我知道您說過去年的成長率顯然是8%。
But was there something else in there that, again, sort of specific to Q1 last year that isn't recurring or, while others are kind of pointing to leisure being up in Q1?
但是,其中是否還有其他因素,再次強調,是特定於去年第一季且不會再次發生的情況,還是其他人則指出第一季休閒支出有所增加?
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Yeah. I think in the end, it was -- as we've mentioned before, Robin, it was broad based. We had some group strength. And we also had transient leisure strength across a number of our markets. I would say it was probably more centered in January, February than it was in March in terms of that strength.
是的。我認為最終,正如我們之前提到的,羅賓,它具有廣泛的基礎。我們有一定的團隊力量。我們的多個市場也擁有短暫的休閒優勢。我想說,就強度而言,一月、二月可能比三月更集中。
So it certainly was more bigger, bigger driver of what we saw in Q1 performance relative to kind of a specific Easter shift impact of March.
因此,相對於 3 月特定的復活節轉變影響,它對我們第一季的表現無疑是更大的推動力。
Operator
Operator
Dori Kesten, Wells Fargo.
富國銀行的多麗‧凱斯滕 (Dori Kesten)。
Dori Kesten - Analyst
Dori Kesten - Analyst
Do the two phases of renovations at Hawaiian Village, Waikoloa and Riverside effectively offset each other from a RevPAR perspective this year? And then how should we start to think about the aggregate of those tailwinds for next year?
從今年 RevPAR 的角度來看,夏威夷村、威可洛亞和河畔酒店的兩個翻新階段是否能有效相互抵銷?那麼,我們該如何開始考慮明年這些順風因素的整體情況呢?
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Yeah. Dori, the first part I'd say it's essentially they lap each other. And I think it's maybe 10 basis points to 20 basis points or so of impact. We had a little bit of disruption in January in Hawaiian Village. Some of the phase one beginning of this year, but overall, I think it's not dramatic impact to the top line and we don't see obviously some impact on the bottom line at all.
是的。多莉,我想說的第一部分基本上就是它們互相重疊。我認為其影響可能在 10 個基點到 20 個基點左右。一月份,夏威夷村遇到了一點麻煩。第一階段的部分工作於今年初開始,但總體而言,我認為這對營收不會產生巨大影響,而且我們顯然沒有看到對利潤產生任何影響。
Dori Kesten - Analyst
Dori Kesten - Analyst
And then just regarding your operating cost growth assumptions for this year. I think we were a little bit surprised at the low end of the range just given labor cost headwinds. So can you just walk us through does it assume fewer FTEs? Are there some relatively low growth markets that should be highlighted some lower insurance assumptions?
然後只討論您對今年的營運成本成長假設。我認為,考慮到勞動成本的不利因素,我們對這一範圍的低端感到有點驚訝。那麼,您能否向我們簡單介紹一下,這是否意味著 FTE 會減少?是否存在一些相對低成長的市場,需要強調一些較低的保險假設?
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Yeah. I mean from a cost standpoint, I would say in general, it's overall costs are kind of in that 3-ish, 3.5% range. Clearly, wages are elevated and certainly north of inflationary costs. Union negotiations certainly are on the higher end. Ultimately, in the 5% to 6% range offset by kind of non-union elements that are kind of in the 3% kind of a little bit -- a little around inflation a little bit more.
是的。我的意思是,從成本的角度來看,一般來說,它的總成本大約在 3% 到 3.5% 的範圍內。顯然,薪資上漲了,而且肯定超過了通貨膨脹成本。工會談判當然處於較高水準。最終,在 5% 到 6% 的範圍內,非工會因素所抵銷的幅度大約在 3% 左右,略高於通貨膨脹率。
So all put together, from a wage standpoint it's probably in that mid single digits offset by things like insurance, rent, and other kinds of elements, costs and utilities. They're helping to offset that to kind of put us down to kind of that 3-ish, 3.5% range as you think about -- kind of think about our mid point of our guidance.
因此,從工資的角度來看,總的來說,它可能處於中等個位數,但會被保險、租金和其他類型的要素、成本和公用事業等因素所抵消。他們正在幫助我們抵消這一影響,將我們的預期降到 3% 左右、3.5% 左右的範圍內——這是我們指導的中間點。
If you think about lower end, clearly, there's some assumptions that go into that that if it's less occupancy driving that, you'll have less expenses.
如果你考慮低端市場,顯然,有一些假設,即如果入住率較低,你的開支就會較少。
Operator
Operator
David Hargreaves, Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的戴維‧哈格里夫斯。
David Hargreaves - Analyst
David Hargreaves - Analyst
So I know that you're sort of guiding to a flattish top picture, but with everything that's going on spend wise, I'm wondering if you have plans to be accessing the debt market soon.
所以我知道您正在引導一種較為平緩的頂部圖景,但考慮到支出方面發生的一切,我想知道您是否有計劃很快進入債務市場。
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
We don't have a need to access the debt markets at this time. Obviously, we've got the revolver. We've got about $1.4 billion in liquidity plus or minus. We obviously are going to to be working to recycle capital and sell, as we said, about $300 million to $400 million in non-core assets which gives us a lot of optionality to pay down debt and also really reinvest back into our portfolio.
我們目前不需要進入債務市場。顯然,我們拿到了左輪手槍。我們的流動資金大約有 14 億美元左右。我們顯然將致力於回收資本並出售約 3 億至 4 億美元的非核心資產,正如我們所說,這為我們提供了很大的選擇權來償還債務,並真正將其重新投資到我們的投資組合中。
We've been laser focused and pretty consistent with that strategy over the last few years and you're really not going to see that change. We will, as we think about our maturities next year, very seasoned and experienced team here.
過去幾年來,我們一直高度集中精力並堅持執行這項策略,你不會看到這種改變。當我們考慮明年的成熟度時,我們這裡將會有經驗非常豐富的團隊。
And Sean and team are already thinking about the maturities next year. And we'll have lots of optionality and we'll think carefully about what creates the most value for shareholders, what gives us the optionality as we think about other strategic options as well for the company.
肖恩和他的團隊已經在考慮明年的到期事宜。我們將擁有許多可選性,我們會仔細思考什麼能為股東創造最大價值,什麼能為我們提供可選性,同時我們也為公司考慮其他策略選擇。
David Hargreaves - Analyst
David Hargreaves - Analyst
And in the past, I think you've expressed a comfort level leverage wise in the 3 times to 5 times range. I'm just wondering if that's updated at all if that's still your policy.
並且在過去,我認為您已經表達了 3 倍到 5 倍範圍內的舒適度槓桿。我只是想知道如果這仍然是你們的政策,它是否有所更新。
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. It's still -- Sean and I from day one, really 3 times to 5 times is sort of a guiding principle. We were sort of at 4-ish pre-pandemic. Obviously, we were above that, certainly a little higher than we'd like in a normalized. But we're confident that we'll be able to get sort of inside of at 5 times.
是的。從第一天起,我和肖恩就堅持 3 倍到 5 倍的指導原則。疫情爆發前,我們的數字大概是 4 左右。顯然,我們高於這個水平,肯定比我們期望的正常水平要高一點。但我們有信心能夠在 5 倍內實現這一目標。
And at some point here in the near future, whether that's a year or two, we certainly will make that happen.
在不久的將來,無論是一年還是兩年,我們一定會實現這一目標。
Operator
Operator
Ari Klein, BMO Capital Markets.
Ari Klein,BMO 資本市場。
Ari Klein - Analyst
Ari Klein - Analyst
Can you -- maybe just going back to the Royal Palm renovation, I was wondering if you can help unpack the expected disruption related to it. It looks like the hotel did about $14 million in 2024 EBITDA. That be opening to May this year, but the anticipated disruption for '25 is about $17 million. Maybe you can help reconcile that.
您能否——也許只是回到皇家棕櫚酒店的翻新工程,我想知道您是否可以幫助解決與之相關的預期中斷。看起來該酒店 2024 年的 EBITDA 約為 1400 萬美元。該活動將於今年 5 月開始,但預計 25 年的損失約為 1700 萬美元。也許您可以幫助解決這個問題。
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Yeah. I mean certainly, our team does a good job of kind of digging in through all that to kind of establish the disruption numbers, but certainly, shutting down the hotel, we still are carrying costs.
是的。我的意思是,我們的團隊確實很好地挖掘了所有這些因素,以確定中斷數量,但當然,關閉酒店,我們仍然需要承擔成本。
Not only from a fixed cost standpoint, but we still have a manager in place that we need to have maintained. Teams there as we look to kind of come back out and ramp back up. So it's just a factor of carrying costs for the rest of the year, Ari.
不僅從固定成本的角度來看,而且我們仍然需要保留一名經理。我們希望那裡的團隊能夠重新振作起來。所以這只是今年剩餘時間的持有成本的一個因素,阿里。
Ari Klein - Analyst
Ari Klein - Analyst
And then maybe just from a RevPAR guidance standpoint, it looks like group pace is up 6% for the year. BT is improving. Leisure expected to grow low single digits. And but the RevPAR guide is I guess plus 1.5% at the midpoint.
那麼也許僅從 RevPAR 指導的角度來看,集團今年的成長率似乎成長了 6%。BT 正在改進。休閒消費預計將以低個位數成長。但我猜 RevPAR 指南的中間值是加 1.5%。
Is that reflective of some conservatism on your part, or is it maybe something else?
這是否反映了您的某種保守主義,或者是其他什麼原因?
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Yeah, I think if you think again as we're starting the year it's early, we want to kind of establish ourselves in a way that we think understanding the business, we've got about 80% or so of our kind of group forecast on the books right now. And certainly, there's some reach to get to on the group side and the transient side is obviously very short term in nature unpredictable.
是的,我認為如果你再想想,因為我們今年才剛開始,所以現在還為時過早,我們希望以一種我們認為了解業務的方式來確立自己的地位,目前我們已經完成了大約 80% 左右的集團預測。當然,在群體方面還有一些需要達到的程度,而瞬態方面顯然是非常短期的,本質上是不可預測的。
So we want to kind of just level set there and things feel good right now. I think we've seen in the past things have somewhat not come to fruition. And so I think we're just taking I think a realistic tone here to start the year.
因此,我們希望將水平設置在那裡,現在一切都感覺良好。我認為我們過去看到的事情有些沒有實現。因此,我認為我們只是以現實的基調來開始新的一年。
But I would say yes, I mean business transient has been stronger of late. Group remains solid. Leisure, I think is again -- continues to be a moderated segment which is the largest segment in our demand pattern. So right now, it's probably low single digits, maybe even kind of flattish.
但我想說是的,我的意思是最近業務瞬態更加強勁。集團依然穩固。我認為休閒仍然是適度成長的部分,也是我們需求模式中最大的部分。因此現在,它可能是一個低個位數,甚至可能持平。
So I think that's kind of as we look at the outlook, and the predictability of the business, we kind of feel comfortable with the range we've given.
所以我認為,當我們審視前景和業務的可預測性時,我們對給予的範圍感到滿意。
Ari Klein - Analyst
Ari Klein - Analyst
If I could just squeeze in one last clarification. Just on the 2025 guidance, '24 had some non-recurring tax benefits. Is there anything like that or one-timers in the '25 guide that we should be aware of?
如果我能夠擠出最後一點時間來澄清的話。僅在 2025 年指導中,'24 就有一些非經常性稅收優惠。'25 指南中是否存在我們應該注意的類似內容或一次性內容?
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Sean Dell'Orto - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
No. Nothing baked into that.
不。什麼也沒有。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the floor back over to Tom Baltimore for any closing comments.
目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權交還給湯姆·巴爾的摩,請他發表最後評論。
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thomas Baltimore - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
I appreciate everybody taking time today. We look forward to seeing many of you at the Citi Conference and safe travels. And we are laser focused here at Park and excited about 2025 and look forward to seeing many of you soon.
我感謝大家今天抽出時間。我們期待在花旗會議上見到你們並祝你們旅途平安。我們全心全意地關注著公園,對 2025 年充滿期待,並期待很快見到你們。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。