派克漢尼汾 (PH) 2026 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q4 營收創新高,達 10% YoY 成長,全年營收 $21.5B,全年有機成長 6.6%;Q4 有機成長 8%,EPS 年增 18% 至 $32.31,Q4 EPS 年增 21% 至 $9.27
    • FY27 指引:營收預估 $23B(YoY +5.5%~8.5%,中值 7%),有機成長 7%,調整後 EPS 指引 $34.75(+8% YoY),調整後營業利潤率目標 27.7%;同時上修中期營業利潤率目標至 FY31 達 30%
    • 市場反應未明確揭露,但管理層強調訂單與營運動能強勁,並持續獲得分析師正面肯定
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • Aerospace & Defense 連續四年雙位數成長,Q4 有機成長 13.4%,訂單與積壓創新高,預期 FY27 持續高個位數成長
      • 國際業務(特別是亞太)Q4 有機成長 16%,電子與 In-Plant 業務帶動強勁動能
      • 多元產業(重卡、建設、HVAC、能源等)均預期 FY27 有中個位數成長,分散單一產業風險
      • 大型併購(Filtration Group、CIRCOR)將擴大技術平台與高毛利業務占比,提升長期成長與獲利能力
      • 現金流創新高,資本運用靈活,持續回饋股東並投資成長
    • 風險:
      • 併購案尚待監管核准,短期內尚未反映於財測,整合執行力需持續驗證
      • 部分產業(農業、汽車)仍呈現疲軟,拉低整體成長動能
      • 國際訂單波動較大,Aerospace & Defense 訂單具長週期特性,短期營收認列具不確定性
      • 價格環境回歸正常,未來成長主要來自出貨量,價格貢獻有限
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Q4 營收:$21.5B(全年),Q4 有機成長 8%,全年有機成長 6.6%
    • Q4 調整後營業利潤率:28.0%(+110bps YoY),全年 27.3%(+120bps YoY)
    • Q4 調整後 EBITDA 利潤率:28.6%(+180bps YoY)
    • Q4 調整後 EPS:$9.27(+21% YoY),全年 $32.31(+18% YoY)
    • 現金流:全年營運現金流 $4.4B(+16% YoY),自由現金流 $3.9B(+17% YoY)
    • Q4 訂單:總體 3 個月 +19%,12 個月 +12%;積壓金額 $12.8B(+16% YoY)
    • 北美業務:Q4 營收 $2.2B,有機成長 5%,營業利潤率 27.4%(+70bps YoY),訂單 3 個月 +16%,12 個月 +9%
    • 國際業務:Q4 營收 $1.6B,有機成長 6.5%,亞太 16%,EMEA 1%,拉美 -3%;營業利潤率 26.8%(+210bps YoY),訂單 3 個月 +24%,12 個月 +10%
    • Aerospace:Q4 營收 $1.9B,有機成長 13.4%,營業利潤率 29.8%(+80bps YoY),訂單 3 個月 +18%,積壓 $8.5B(+15% YoY)
  4. 財務預測
    • FY27 營收預估 $23B(+5.5%~8.5% YoY,7% 中值)
    • FY27 調整後營業利潤率預估 27.7%(+40bps YoY)
    • FY27 CapEx 預估 $500M,約佔營收 2.5%,與過去幾年一致
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Filtration Group 與 CIRCOR 併購進度?有無重大障礙?
      A: 無重大障礙,預計於今年下半年(公司 FY27 上半年)完成,僅待常規監管核准。
    • Q: Q4 國際訂單大幅成長的主因?是否有特定產業帶動?
      A: 主要由電子產業帶動,亞太區表現尤為強勁,In-Plant 也有雙位數成長,EMEA 則為中個位數成長。
    • Q: FY27 各產業成長展望,哪些產業動能最強?
      A: Aerospace & Defense 高個位數成長,商用 OEM 雙位數、售後維修穩健;In-Plant & Industrial 訂單回溫,分銷通路需求加速;重卡、建設、能源(特別是 Power Gen)均有中個位數成長,農業與汽車相對疲弱。
    • Q: 併購後是否還有進一步 M&A 意願?2027 年會專注整合還是持續尋找新標的?
      A: 會專注完成現有兩大併購案整合,但 M&A pipeline 持續運作,若有合適標的仍會積極評估。
    • Q: Aerospace 長期成長展望?商用與國防 OEM/售後各自動能?
      A: Aerospace 長期維持高個位數成長,商用 OEM 預期全年中雙位數成長,售後維修中個位數,國防 OEM/售後皆為中個位數成長,積壓訂單與產業趨勢支撐長線動能。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Parker-Hannifin Corporation's fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and full year earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    各位早安。歡迎參加派克漢尼汾公司(Parker-Hannifin Corporation)2026 會計年度第四季及全年財報電話會議與網路直播。(接線員指示)請注意,今天的會議將被錄音。(接線員指示)

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

    現在我想把電話會議交給財務長 Todd Leombruno 先生。先生,請開始。

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Bo. I'd like to welcome everyone to Parker's fiscal year 2026 fourth quarter and full year earnings release webcast. As Bo said, this is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer, speaking. And with me today, as usual, is Jenny Parmentier, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. We have a number of exciting things to review with everyone today, and we appreciate your time this morning. Thanks for joining us.

    謝謝你,Bo。我想歡迎各位參加派克 2026 會計年度第四季及全年財報發布網路直播。如 Bo 所說,我是財務長 Todd Leombruno。今天與我一同出席的,照例是我們的董事長兼執行長 Jenny Parmentier。今天我們有許多令人振奮的內容要與各位回顧,也感謝各位今早撥冗參與。謝謝大家加入。

  • Let's move on to slide 2 to address our disclosures on forward-looking projections and non-GAAP financial measures. Items listed here could cause actual results to vary from our forecast. Our press release, the presentation here, and reconciliations for all those non-GAAP measures were released this morning and are available under the Investors section of parker.com.

    接著請看投影片 2,說明我們對前瞻性陳述與非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的揭露。此處列示的事項可能導致實際結果與我們的預測有所差異。我們的新聞稿、本簡報,以及所有非 GAAP 指標的調節表已於今早發布,並可在 parker.com 的「投資人」專區取得。

  • Today, Jenny is going to start with our record FY26 performance. She's going to share some highlights on what we did with capital deployment actions this year and introduce our new FY31 adjusted segment operating margin target. She's also going to address an upcoming change to our order rate reporting that will start in FY27. I'm going to follow with some details on our record fourth quarter financial results.

    今天 Jenny 將先從我們創紀錄的 FY26 表現開始。她將分享今年資本部署行動的一些重點,並介紹我們新的 FY31 調整後分部營業利益率目標。她也將說明我們自 FY27 起將開始的訂單率揭露方式變更。接著我會補充我們創紀錄第四季財務結果的細節。

  • We also initiated our FY27 guidance today, and we will review all the assumptions for what we expect to be a new record year for Parker-Hannifin. We'll conclude the call with our normal Q&A portion, and we'll try to address as many questions as we have time for.

    我們今天也提出 FY27 的財測指引,並將檢視我們對派克漢尼汾可望再創新高年度的各項假設。最後我們將進入例行的問答環節,並會在時間允許下盡量回答更多問題。

  • Now let's move to slide 3. And Jenny, I will turn it over to you.

    現在請看投影片 3。Jenny,我把時間交給你。

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Todd, and thank you to everyone for attending the call today. Our global team delivered record performance in fiscal year '26, powered by our proven business system, The Win Strategy. We achieved top quartile safety performance with a 9% reduction in our recordable incident rate. This was our safest year ever, and we remain focused on being the safest industrial company in the world.

    謝謝你,Todd,也謝謝各位今天參加本次電話會議。在我們經驗證的營運系統「致勝策略(The Win Strategy)」驅動下,我們的全球團隊在 2026 會計年度交出創紀錄的表現。我們達成同業前四分位的安全績效,通報事故率降低 9%。這是我們史上最安全的一年,我們仍專注於成為全球最安全的工業公司。

  • We delivered record fiscal year '26 sales of $21.5 billion, surpassing $20 billion for the first time in Parker's history. Organic growth accelerated to 6.6%, and adjusted segment operating margin expanded 120 basis points to a record 27.3%. Adjusted earnings per share increased 18% to a record $32.31, and cash flow from operations was also a record at $4.4 billion, our first time over $4 billion.

    我們在 2026 會計年度創下 215 億美元的銷售新高,為派克歷史上首次突破 200 億美元。有機成長加速至 6.6%,調整後分部營業利益率擴張 120 個基點至創紀錄的 27.3%。調整後每股盈餘成長 18% 至創紀錄的 32.31 美元,營運活動現金流亦創新高達 44 億美元,首次突破 40 億美元。

  • I'd like to congratulate our team members around the world for achieving and surpassing our fiscal year '29 adjusted segment operating margin target ahead of schedule. Thank you for everything you do to keep each other safe, create value for customers, and demonstrate operational excellence.

    我要恭喜全球團隊成員提前達成並超越我們 2029 會計年度的調整後分部營業利益率目標。感謝各位所做的一切,彼此守護安全、為客戶創造價值,並展現卓越營運。

  • Slide 4, please. Fiscal year '26 marks the biggest year in Parker's history with over $15 billion in announced and deployed capital. We announced strategic acquisitions that further build our portfolio of interconnected technologies, giving our application engineers and channel partners with more ways to create value for customers.

    請看投影片 4。2026 會計年度是派克歷史上規模最大的一年,宣布與投入的資本超過 150 億美元。我們宣布的策略性併購進一步強化我們相互連結技術的產品組合,讓我們的應用工程師與通路夥伴有更多方式為客戶創造價值。

  • We enhanced our electrification capabilities with the acquisition of Curtis Instruments completed last September. In November, we announced the pending acquisition of Filtration Group Corporation, which expands our offering of proprietary filtration technologies and increases our filtration aftermarket by 500 basis points. And just this past May, we announced the pending acquisition of CIRCOR's Commercial Aerospace and Defense business, adding complementary flight critical capabilities.

    我們於去年 9 月完成收購 Curtis Instruments,強化電氣化能力。11 月,我們宣布擬收購 Filtration Group Corporation,擴大我們專有過濾技術的產品供應,並使我們的過濾售後市場占比提升 500 個基點。而就在今年 5 月,我們宣布擬收購 CIRCOR 的商用航太與國防業務,新增互補的飛行關鍵能力。

  • We are committed to actively deploying capital, and these transactions are right in line with our stated strategy to acquire companies where we are the clear best owner, building on our interconnected technology, creating value for customers, and further compounding earnings growth. We look forward to welcoming our new team members into Parker.

    我們致力於積極部署資本,這些交易完全符合我們既定策略:收購我們明確是最佳擁有者的公司,建立在相互連結的技術之上,為客戶創造價值,並進一步複利化獲利成長。我們期待歡迎新的團隊成員加入派克。

  • Moving to slide 5. After setting our fiscal year '29 targets just over two years ago, we are raising the bar once again and setting a new margin target. As I said earlier, we achieved our fiscal year '29 margin target early. And now for the fifth time in just over 10 years, we are raising our adjusted segment operating margin target once again. We are raising it by 300 basis points to 30% by fiscal year '31. In addition, we remain committed to organic growth of 4% to 6% over the cycle, 17% free cash flow margin, and greater than 10% adjusted EPS growth over the cycle.

    接著看投影片 5。在兩年多前設定 2029 會計年度目標之後,我們再次提高標準,設定新的利潤率目標。如我先前所說,我們已提前達成 2029 會計年度的利潤率目標。而現在,在過去 10 年多的時間裡,這已是我們第 5 次再次上調調整後分部營業利益率目標。我們將目標提高 300 個基點,至 2031 會計年度達到 30%。此外,我們仍致力於在景氣循環期間達成 4% 至 6% 的有機成長、17% 的自由現金流利潤率,以及在景氣循環期間超過 10% 的調整後 EPS 成長。

  • We are very proud of what the teams have accomplished over the last several years, and we are confident in achieving these targets. Parker has a fantastic track record of achieving and raising margin targets. Margin expansion has been an exciting part of the Parker story for over a decade. And by using The Win Strategy to drive operational excellence in each of our divisions, margin expansion will continue at Parker-Hannifin.

    我們對團隊過去幾年的成果深感自豪,也有信心達成這些目標。派克在達成並上調利潤率目標方面有極佳的紀錄。利潤率擴張在過去十多年一直是派克故事中令人振奮的一部分。透過運用「致勝策略(The Win Strategy)」推動各事業部的卓越營運,派克漢尼汾的利潤率擴張將持續進行。

  • Slide 6, please. Today, we are announcing a move to rolling 12-month order rates beginning in fiscal year '27 for our Industrial segment, aligning all businesses on a rolling 12-month calculation. Parker's portfolio is profoundly different today than it was 20 years ago when we began disclosing quarterly order rate comparisons for the Industrial business. Our portfolio has been shaped by strategic positioning, one of our organic growth enablers, and has been transformed by acquisitions.

    請看投影片 6。今天我們宣布,自 2027 會計年度起,工業分部的訂單率將改採「過去 12 個月滾動」口徑,使所有業務一致採用 12 個月滾動計算。與 20 年前我們開始揭露工業業務的季度訂單率比較時相比,派克目前的產品組合已大不相同。我們的產品組合在策略定位(我們有機成長的推動因素之一)下逐步成形,並透過併購而轉型。

  • Over the last decade, these acquisitions have more than doubled the size of our Aerospace and Engineered Materials businesses. And once Filtration Group Corporation closes, we will have more than tripled the size of our Filtration business. These technology platforms combined now represent approximately 65% of our pro forma sales today. This is clearly a different Parker, with greater exposure to longer cycle, secular trends, and more resilient end markets. And rolling 12-month orders provide a stronger correlation to near-term organic sales growth.

    在過去十年,這些併購使我們的航太與工程材料業務規模增加逾一倍。而一旦 Filtration Group Corporation 完成交割,我們的過濾業務規模將增加逾三倍。這些技術平台合計目前約占我們備考(pro forma)銷售額的 65%。這顯然是一個不同以往的派克,對較長週期的長期趨勢(secular trends)有更高曝險,終端市場也更具韌性。而 12 個月滾動訂單與近期有機銷售成長具有更強的相關性。

  • I'll give it back to Todd to review fourth quarter highlights.

    我把時間交還給 Todd,請他回顧第四季重點。

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Jenny. I'm going to jump through the fourth quarter. We couldn't have had such a great fiscal year without such a strong finish in the fourth quarter. It was a record-setting numbers across the board. The team delivered new records for sales, adjusted segment operating margin, adjusted EBITDA margin, net income, and adjusted EPS all in the quarter.

    謝謝你,Jenny。我將快速帶各位看第四季。若沒有第四季的強勁收官,我們不可能有如此出色的會計年度表現。各項數字全面刷新紀錄。團隊在本季創下銷售額、調整後分部營業利益率、調整後 EBITDA 利潤率、淨利,以及調整後 EPS 的新高紀錄。

  • Sales were up 10% versus prior. Organic was up 8%. That was the strongest quarter of the fiscal year when it comes to organic growth, really finished the year strong. Currency was just slightly unfavorable at 0.3%, and the Curtis acquisition added 1.5% to the sales.

    銷售額較前期成長10%。有機成長為8%。就有機成長而言,這是本財政年度最強勁的一季,確實以強勢表現為年度畫下句點。匯率影響僅略為不利,為0.3%,而Curtis收購案為銷售額貢獻了1.5%。

  • When you look at margins, adjusted segment operating margin for the quarter was 28.0%, that is up 110 basis points from prior year. That is the first time the company has ever generated segment operating margins above 28%, just a great way to finish the year.

    從利潤率來看,本季調整後分部營業利益率為28.0%,較去年同期提高110個基點。這是公司史上首次分部營業利益率超過28%,以這樣的成績結束年度非常出色。

  • Adjusted EBITDA margin was 28.6%. That's up 180 basis points. And adjusted net income was $1.2 billion, which is a 21% return on sales. And that actually drove earnings per share up also 21%. And we achieved $9.27 for the quarter. That's the first time the company has ever generated over $9 in a single quarter.

    調整後EBITDA利潤率為28.6%。較去年同期提高180個基點。調整後淨利為12億美元,相當於銷售額的21%。這也帶動每股盈餘同樣成長21%。本季達到9.27美元。這是公司史上首次單季創造超過9美元的每股盈餘。

  • Just an outstanding way to finish the year, 8% organic growth, record margins across the board and 21% EPS growth. Jenny said this already, but really, we can't thank our teams enough for their continued hard work and dedication throughout the quarter and really finishing the year strong.

    以8%的有機成長、全面創新高的利潤率,以及21%的EPS成長,為年度畫下極為亮眼的句點。Jenny已經提過,但我們真的無法充分感謝各團隊在本季持續的辛勤投入與奉獻,並且以強勢表現完成年度。

  • If we jump to slide 9. This just displays the walk, the $1.58 increase in EPS versus prior year. Really, you could just see what a high-quality quarter this was from the team. Over 80% of the EPS growth came from increased segment operating income dollars. That added $1.29 or 17% of the EPS growth versus prior year. Corporate G&A and other, really, it's other, contributed $0.25, and that was really the result of foreign currency exchange being favorable.

    如果我們跳到第9頁投影片。這裡展示了EPS較去年同期增加1.58美元的變動拆解。你可以清楚看到團隊本季表現的高品質。超過80%的EPS成長來自分部營業利益(以金額計)的增加。這部分貢獻了1.29美元,約占相較去年同期EPS成長的17%。公司層級的G&A與其他項目(其實主要是其他)貢獻0.25美元,主要是因外匯匯率變動有利所致。

  • Lower share count. We've done a significant amount of share buybacks over the last year that added $0.09 for the quarter and lower interest expense added $0.02. Income tax was favorable to our guide, but compared to last year, it was unfavorable by just $0.07, and that was really due to just higher discrete -- favorable discrete items in the prior year. If you look at all of that, that's how we got the $9.27, $9.27 of adjusted EPS, just a great way to end the year.

    股數減少。過去一年我們進行了相當規模的庫藏股回購,本季因此增加0.09美元;利息費用下降則增加0.02美元。所得稅相較我們的指引較為有利,但與去年相比則僅不利0.07美元,主要是因去年有較高的一次性(離散)有利項目。綜合以上因素,我們達到9.27美元,也就是9.27美元的調整後EPS,為年度收官的絕佳表現。

  • If we can go to slide 10. Let's take a look at the segments. In total, I already mentioned this, but organic growth was up 8%. We expanded margins across the board, 110 basis points in the quarter, and incrementals were 40% for Q4. We are very pleased to see the order rates accelerate across all these businesses. Jenny just mentioned this, but beginning in FY27, we will convert to order reporting for all businesses using the 12-month rolling. I've provided the 3-month and the 12-month here, but this will be the last quarter we do this going forward for FY27.

    我們看第10頁投影片。來看看各分部。整體而言,我先前提到,有機成長為8%。我們全面擴大利潤率,本季提高110個基點,且第四季的增量利潤率為40%。我們很高興看到所有業務的接單率加速成長。Jenny剛提到,從FY27開始,我們將改為以12個月滾動方式,對所有業務採用訂單(orders)報告。我在此提供了3個月與12個月的數據,但這將是FY27起我們最後一次以此方式呈現的季度。

  • In the appendix of this deck and in our press release, we provided eight quarters of historical comparisons, if you're interested in that. But in total, orders were up 19% on the three-year comparison, using a 12-month rolling of 12%. Backlog increased 16% versus prior year and is now a new record at $12.8 billion.

    在本簡報的附錄以及我們的新聞稿中,我們提供了八個季度的歷史比較,若你有興趣可參考。整體而言,以三年比較口徑,訂單成長19%;以12個月滾動口徑則為12%。積壓訂單(backlog)較去年同期增加16%,目前創新高達128億美元。

  • If we move to the North American businesses, sales were $2.2 billion. Organic growth was just about 5%. Really, this is just a base on a broadening recovery across all those businesses. Margins are up 70 basis points to a record 27.4%. That also exceeded our expectations and really marked the highest quarter of margin performance for the North American businesses of the year. Orders in North America improved just plus 16% on a three-month comparison and 9% on a rolling 12. Just a great way to finish the year for the North American businesses.

    若轉到北美業務,銷售額為22億美元。有機成長約為5%。這主要反映各項業務的復甦正在擴大。利潤率提高70個基點至創紀錄的27.4%。這也超出我們預期,並且是北美業務本年度利潤率表現最高的一季。北美訂單在三個月比較口徑成長16%,在12個月滾動口徑成長9%。北美業務以非常出色的表現結束年度。

  • Moving to the international businesses. Sales were a record $1.6 billion. Organic growth, really impressive at 6.5%. Asia Pac really leading the way for us there. Organic growth in Asia Pacific was 16%. EMEA was positive, but just 1% positive. And Latin America was down 3% versus the prior year. What's great here is adjusted the operating margin is a new record at 26.8% for the international businesses. That is up 210 basis points versus prior year. And orders, amazingly strong here, 24% on a three-month comparison, 10% on a rolling 12. Just a nice way to finish the year for our industrial team members based in our international businesses.

    接著看國際業務。銷售額創紀錄達16億美元。有機成長相當亮眼,為6.5%。亞太地區確實是帶動成長的主力。亞太的有機成長為16%。EMEA為正成長,但僅為1%。拉丁美洲則較去年同期下滑3%。值得一提的是,國際業務的調整後營業利益率創新高達26.8%。較去年同期提高210個基點。訂單表現也非常強勁:三個月比較口徑成長24%,12個月滾動口徑成長10%。對於我們在國際業務的工業團隊成員而言,這是相當不錯的年度收官。

  • Aerospace continues to lead the way here, a record $1.9 billion in sales for the quarter, organic growth of 13.4% versus the prior year. This marks the fourth year -- fourth full fiscal year in a row of double-digit organic growth for Aerospace. The team has really outperformed and executed unbelievably well, generated $1.9 billion in sales.

    航太業務持續領先,本季銷售額創紀錄達19億美元,較去年同期有機成長13.4%。這是航太業務連續第四個完整財政年度達成雙位數有機成長。團隊表現確實超越預期、執行力極佳,創造了19億美元的銷售額。

  • Margins are also up in Aerospace, up 80 basis points versus the prior year and reached 29.8% for the quarter. If you move to orders in Aerospace, order rates, unbelievably strong here, again, 18%, double-digit growth in both commercial OEM and aftermarket and really strength in the Defense OEM markets. Backlog in Aerospace is up 15% versus prior year and reached a record $8.5 billion. Just a great series of results from the team.

    航太業務的利潤率也提升,較去年同期提高80個基點,本季達到29.8%。再看航太訂單,接單率同樣強勁,再次達到18%;商用OEM與售後市場皆為雙位數成長,國防OEM市場也展現強勢。航太積壓訂單較去年同期增加15%,並創新高達85億美元。團隊交出一系列非常出色的成果。

  • If we can go to slide 11, this highlights our cash flow performance, and we detailed some of those capital deployment actions that Jenny mentioned. Cash flow from operations surpassed $4 billion for the first time ever in the history of the company, really blew it away at $4.4 billion. That's 20.3% of sales. That is up 16% versus the prior year. Free cash flow increased by 17% versus the prior year and also came in at a record at $3.9 billion. That's 18.2% of sales, and the conversion on that is 107%.

    我們看第11頁投影片,這裡重點呈現我們的現金流表現,並詳述Jenny提到的一些資本配置行動。營運活動現金流首次在公司歷史上突破40億美元,實際達到44億美元,表現非常亮眼。這相當於銷售額的20.3%。較去年同期成長16%。自由現金流較去年同期增加17%,同樣創紀錄達39億美元。這相當於銷售額的18.2%,其轉換率為107%。

  • In addition to delivering a record year of cash generation, we reached new highs when it comes to deploying capital. We returned nearly $2 billion to shareholders. That is $1 billion in share repurchases and nearly $1 billion of dividends paid. We invested $500 million of CapEx into our operations to make them safer and more productive.

    除了創下現金創造的紀錄年度之外,我們在資本部署方面也達到新高。我們向股東回饋近20億美元。其中包含10億美元的股票回購,以及近10億美元的股利發放。我們投入5億美元的資本支出(CapEx)於營運,以提升安全性與生產力。

  • We completed the $1 billion acquisition of Curtis Instruments. And as Jenny said, we announced nearly $12 billion for the acquisitions of Filtration Group Corporation and CIRCOR's Aerospace and Defense business. In total, that's nearly $15 billion of capital deployment actions for the year, really underpinning our commitments to be great generators and great deployers of cash.

    我們完成了對 Curtis Instruments 的 10 億美元收購。此外,如 Jenny 所說,我們宣布將近 120 億美元,用於收購 Filtration Group Corporation 以及 CIRCOR 的航太與國防業務。合計而言,這些是本年度將近 150 億美元的資本部署行動,確實支撐了我們成為優秀現金創造者與優秀現金部署者的承諾。

  • And even with all those actions, we still reduced debt by $1 billion in the quarter, bringing our net debt to adjusted EBITDA to 1.4 times. That is down from 1.7 at this time last year. Just a great year of cash generation.

    即便採取了所有這些行動,我們在本季仍將債務降低了 10 億美元,使淨負債對調整後 EBITDA 的倍數降至 1.4 倍。這較去年此時的 1.7 倍有所下降。這是一個現金創造表現非常出色的年度。

  • Okay. Now let's move to slide 13 and address our FY27 guidance. Jenny, I will hand it back to you, and she will start with our sales growth forecast by market vertical.

    好的。現在我們移到第 13 張投影片,說明我們 FY27 的指引。Jenny,我把時間交還給你,她將先從各市場垂直領域的銷售成長預測開始。

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Todd. I'm on slide 13, our fiscal year '27 organic growth forecast by key market verticals. For Aerospace & Defense, our largest vertical, we are guiding high single-digit organic growth. We expect another year of robust double-digit growth for commercial OEM and sustained commercial aftermarket growth. Defense orders finished strong, supporting a solid outlook for fiscal year '27 and beyond.

    謝謝你,Todd。我在第 13 張投影片,這是我們按主要市場垂直領域劃分的 27 會計年度有機成長預測。在航太與國防方面(我們最大的垂直領域),我們給出的指引是高個位數的有機成長。我們預期商用 OEM 將再有一年強勁的雙位數成長,且商用售後市場成長將持續。國防訂單收尾強勁,支撐 27 會計年度及之後的穩健展望。

  • We expect mid-single-digit growth for In-Plant & Industrial. We see signs from distribution that the Industrial recovery is broadening as customers demand gradually accelerate. Customer spending on automation continues to lead the growth here.

    我們預期廠內與工業(In-Plant & Industrial)將有中個位數成長。我們從通路端看到跡象,隨著客戶需求逐步加速,工業復甦正在擴大。客戶在自動化方面的支出仍是此處成長的主要帶動因素。

  • For our Transportation vertical, we forecast mid-single-digit growth, led by strong growth for heavy-duty trucks, driven by production rate increases. This is offset by lower growth assumptions for our Automotive business, resulting in mid-single-digit growth overall for this vertical.

    在運輸(Transportation)垂直領域,我們預測中個位數成長,主要由重型卡車的強勁成長帶動,這是由產能/產量提升所驅動。但汽車業務較低的成長假設抵銷了部分增幅,使該垂直領域整體呈現中個位數成長。

  • Moving to Off-Highway. We are guiding mid-single-digit growth, driven by a continuation of the trends we saw in fiscal year '26. We see continued strong growth in Construction and Mining, offset by continued softness in Agriculture.

    接著是非公路(Off-Highway)。我們給出的指引是中個位數成長,動能來自我們在 26 會計年度所看到趨勢的延續。我們看到建築與礦業持續強勁成長,但農業仍持續疲弱,形成抵銷。

  • We also expect mid-single-digit growth for Energy. We see strong and sustained long-cycle growth from our businesses supporting gas turbine power generation, while we are expecting Oil & Gas to be flat this year.

    我們也預期能源(Energy)將有中個位數成長。我們看到支援燃氣渦輪發電的業務帶來強勁且持續的長週期成長,同時我們預期今年油氣(Oil & Gas)將持平。

  • Lastly, we are guiding mid-single-digit growth in HVAC and Refrigeration. We expect Commercial HVAC to lead growth, and we see our residential business improving as inventories stabilize. For the first time ever, we are guiding positive sales growth across all market verticals, resulting in an organic growth forecast of 7% at the midpoint.

    最後,我們在 HVAC 與冷凍(Refrigeration)方面給出的指引也是中個位數成長。我們預期商用 HVAC 將引領成長,且隨著庫存趨於穩定,我們看到住宅業務正在改善。我們史上首次對所有市場垂直領域都給出正向的銷售成長指引,使有機成長預測在中位數為 7%。

  • I'll get it back to Todd, and he'll share more details on our guidance.

    我把時間交回給 Todd,他會分享更多關於我們指引的細節。

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Jenny. I'm on slide 14, and I'm just going to go through some of the details here. Reported sales growth for the year is going to be in the range of 5.5% to 8.5% or 7% at the midpoint. That will calculate to approximately $23 billion in annual sales for the company. Sales are modeled as usual, 48% in the first half, 52% in the second half. Consistent with what we've done historically, this guidance does not yet include any impact from the pending Filtration Group or CIRCOR acquisitions. We will provide current data on those transactions as soon as they close.

    謝謝你,Jenny。我在第 14 張投影片,接下來我會說明一些細節。本年度的報告口徑(reported)銷售成長將落在 5.5% 到 8.5% 的區間,中位數為 7%。換算後,公司全年銷售額約為 230 億美元。銷售的季節性模型如常:上半年 48%,下半年 52%。與我們過往做法一致,此指引尚未納入待完成的 Filtration Group 或 CIRCOR 收購案的任何影響。一旦交易完成,我們將盡快提供這些交易的最新數據。

  • When you look at organic growth, the range is the same, 5.5% to 8.5% or 7% at the midpoint. Specifically for the North American businesses, we're expecting 6.5% organic growth at the midpoint. And for the International Industrial businesses, we expect 5.5% organic growth at the midpoint.

    就有機成長而言,區間相同,為 5.5% 到 8.5%,中位數為 7%。具體來看,北美業務我們預期中位數為 6.5% 的有機成長。而國際工業(International Industrial)業務,我們預期中位數為 5.5% 的有機成長。

  • Aerospace, we expect 8.5% organic growth at the midpoint. And again, that's coming off of four years of double-digit organic growth. So the base is very high.

    航太方面,我們預期中位數為 8.5% 的有機成長。再次強調,這是在連續四年雙位數有機成長之後的基礎上。因此基期非常高。

  • Currency is based on our June 30 spot rates and is expected to be just slightly unfavorable by 0.5 point. And previously completed acquisitions, this is really Curtis, adds approximately 0.5% for the year of FY27.

    匯率假設以我們 6 月 30 日的即期匯率為基礎,預期僅會有約 0.5 個百分點的輕微不利影響。而先前已完成的收購(主要是 Curtis)在 FY27 全年約貢獻 0.5% 的增長。

  • On adjusted segment operating margins, we're guiding 27.7% at the midpoint. That's 40 basis points above prior year, and there will be margin expansion across all of our businesses. And when it comes to incrementals, we're forecasting that near the top end of our stated 30% to 35% range for the full year.

    在調整後分部營業利益率方面,我們給出的指引中位數為 27.7%。這較前一年高出 40 個基點,且我們所有業務都將出現利潤率擴張。至於增量利潤率(incrementals),我們預測全年將接近我們所述 30% 到 35% 區間的上緣。

  • Just a few additional guidance items, corporate G&A is expected to be about $200 million. Interest expense is about $340 million. That, again, excludes any pending debt we take on when Filtration Group and CIRCOR closes. And other expense is forecasted to be around $100 million.

    再補充幾項指引:公司層級的一般與管理費用(corporate G&A)預期約為 2 億美元。利息費用約為 3.4 億美元。同樣地,這不包含 Filtration Group 與 CIRCOR 完成收購時我們可能新增的任何待定負債。其他費用預測約為 1 億美元。

  • Tax rate, the full year tax rate, we are guiding to 22.5%. EPS, full year adjusted EPS is going to be $34.75 at the midpoint. That's an increase of 8% versus prior year. The range on that is plus or minus $0.50 on either side. The split on EPS is 47% first half, 53% in the second half. And for cash flow, we're expecting a range of $3.4 billion to $3.9 billion. That is free cash flow with conversion of approximately 100%.

    稅率方面,全年稅率指引為 22.5%。EPS 方面,全年調整後 EPS 中位數為 34.75 美元。這較前一年增加 8%。其區間為中位數上下各 0.50 美元。EPS 的分布為上半年 47%,下半年 53%。現金流方面,我們預期區間為 34 億至 39 億美元。這是自由現金流,換算率(conversion)約為 100%。

  • Now on the right-hand side of the page, just some details for the first quarter of FY27 and all of these are at the midpoint. Our reported sales are forecasted to be positive, approximately 9%. Organic growth is expected to be positive at approximately 8%. For the quarter, we're forecasting adjusted segment operating margins at 27.7%, and adjusted EPS is expected to be just over a little over $8 at $8.07 for the quarter. As usual, there are lots of additional guidance details in the appendix.

    接著在頁面右側,是 FY27 第一季的一些細節,且以下皆為中位數假設。我們預測報告口徑銷售將為正成長,約 9%。有機成長預期為正,約 8%。就該季度而言,我們預測調整後分部營業利益率為 27.7%,調整後 EPS 預期略高於 8 美元,該季為 8.07 美元。如同以往,附錄中還有許多額外的指引細節。

  • On slide 15, if you look at the bridge, this just shows the growth versus prior year. We're forecasting an increase of 8.5% in segment operating income dollars. That is a little over $3 of additional EPS for the year. Lower interest rate resulting from what we've been able to pay down in the year, adds about $0.38. Lower share count, we're at $0.07.

    在第 15 張投影片,如果你看這個橋接圖(bridge),它顯示相較前一年的成長來源。我們預測分部營業利益金額將增加 8.5%。這相當於全年 EPS 增加略高於 3 美元。由於我們在本年度得以償還部分債務而帶來較低的利率,約貢獻 0.38 美元;股數減少則貢獻 0.07 美元。

  • We've got a little bit of a headwind here on tax. That's usually a forecasted rate of [22.5]. That does not include any discrete items that are not yet known, and it is a bit of a headwind from what we've experienced in FY26. Nothing unusual there, just still unknown. Corporate G&A and other, it's really other, is forecasted to be unfavorable $0.14. All of that will be in the other line, and that's really due to the non-repeat favorable foreign currency exchange that we experienced in FY26. In summary, the adjusted EPS is $34.75. That's up 8%.

    稅負方面我們有些許逆風。通常我們預測的稅率為[22.5]。這不包含任何目前尚未知的離散項目(discrete items),且相較我們在 FY26 的經驗,確實帶來一些逆風。沒有什麼異常,只是仍有不確定因素。公司層級 G&A 與其他項目(其實主要是其他)預測將不利 0.14 美元。這些都會列在其他項目中,主要原因是 FY26 我們曾出現一次性、不可重複的有利外匯兌換影響。總結來說,調整後 EPS 為 34.75 美元,年增 8%。

  • And with that, Jenny, I will hand it back to you.

    就到這裡,Jenny,我把時間交還給妳。

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Todd. On our final slide, a reminder of what drives Parker: safety, engagement, and ownership are the foundation of our culture. This is our team members living up to our purpose every day to drive top quartile performance and allows us to be great generators and deployers of cash.

    謝謝,Todd。在我們最後一張投影片上,提醒大家是什麼驅動 Parker:安全、投入與主人翁精神是我們文化的基石。這是我們的團隊成員每天都在實踐我們的使命,以推動前四分位的績效,並讓我們能成為優秀的現金創造者與現金部署者。

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Okay. Bo, we are ready to start the Q&A portion of the call.

    好的。Bo,我們準備開始本次電話會議的問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Scott Davis, Melius Research.

    (接線員指示) Scott Davis,Melius Research。

  • Scott Davis - Analyst

    Scott Davis - Analyst

  • Congrats on a great year. It might sound like a broken record because you've had quite a few of them in the last few years anyways. But just a cleanup item here. What are the final hurdles left to close the Filtration Group and CIRCOR? Any major hurdles?

    恭喜你們度過非常出色的一年。這聽起來可能像老生常談,因為你們過去幾年確實也有不少這樣的表現。不過這裡有個收尾問題。完成 Filtration Group 和 CIRCOR 交易交割,最後還剩下哪些障礙?有任何重大障礙嗎?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • No major hurdles. We still anticipate closing both of them during the second half of this calendar year, the first half of our fiscal year. As you know, closing remains subject to all the customary conditions, pending regulatory clearances. But the process is ongoing and continuing to progress on both of them.

    沒有重大障礙。我們仍預期兩筆交易都會在本曆年下半年、也就是我們會計年度上半年完成交割。如你所知,交割仍須滿足所有慣常條件並取得監管核准。但流程仍在進行中,兩筆交易都持續取得進展。

  • Scott Davis - Analyst

    Scott Davis - Analyst

  • Okay. Fair enough. And then just as a follow-up, when you look at your targets, your new targets on slide 5. And can you give us a sense of maybe where you're most comfortable and least comfortable, if that such thing? I'm sure there's some minimum level of comfort, but just love to get a sense of where you feel are going to be the easier targets to hit versus the harder targets to hit.

    好的。合理。接著追問一下,當你看你們在第 5 張投影片上的新目標時,你能否讓我們了解一下,哪些目標你最有把握、哪些相對沒那麼有把握(如果可以這樣說)?我相信都有一定程度的信心,但很想了解你們覺得哪些目標比較容易達成、哪些比較難達成。

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Hey, Scott, I'll start with that, and I'll let Jenny jump in here. None of these targets are easy by any stretch of imagination, but what gives me great confidence is the way our team embraces them. I've told you this many, many times before, I've never seen such alignment across the company. These are not easy to achieve by any stretch of imagination.

    Scott,我先回答,然後讓 Jenny 也補充。這些目標沒有一個是輕鬆的,但讓我非常有信心的是我們團隊擁抱這些目標的方式。我以前跟你說過很多次,我從未見過公司上下有如此一致的對齊。這些目標絕對不容易達成。

  • I look at our track record, and we are just so proud of what we've been able to accomplish here. Raising that margin target to 30%, that's a big number, right? That is a big number. It's a 300 basis point improvement. But if you look at what we've done in the past, I have great confidence that we're going to be able to achieve that.

    回頭看我們的歷史成績,我們對能在這裡完成的成果感到非常自豪。把利潤率目標提高到 30%,這是一個很大的數字,對吧?這確實是個大數字。相當於提升 300 個基點。但如果你看我們過去做到的事情,我非常有信心我們能達成。

  • We've done a great job on the EPS CAGR. If you can get margin expansion and top-line growth, sprinkling a little bit of accretive capital allocation, that works as well. So I feel really good about this. I don't really have any concerns.

    我們在 EPS 複合年成長率(CAGR)方面做得很好。如果能做到利潤率擴張與營收成長,再搭配一點具增益性的資本配置,也會有幫助。所以我對此感覺非常好。我其實沒有什麼擔憂。

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • No. I mean, I echo Todd's comments, The Win Strategy has never been stronger, and the alignment has never been stronger. Obviously, in these targets, we've included the acquisitions that we've yet to close. We're going to use our integration playbooks and do a great job as we have done in the past, and the team is going to continue to do what we've been doing.

    沒有。我的意思是,我呼應 Todd 的評論,Win Strategy 從未如此強大,而一致性也從未如此強。當然,在這些目標中,我們也納入了尚未完成交割的收購案。我們會運用整合作戰手冊,像過去一樣把整合工作做好,團隊也會持續做我們一直在做的事。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

    Jeff Sprague,Vertical Research。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • So where to start? Various (inaudible) here. I guess the first thing is just on the strength of the orders on the rolling 3 basis here in the quarter, particularly in international. But can you just provide a little bit more color on what was going on there? Was there something that proved to be a real catalyst in a couple of key end markets?

    那從哪裡開始呢?這裡有各種(聽不清)問題。我想第一個是關於本季以滾動 3 個月基礎來看訂單的強勁表現,尤其是在國際市場。你能否再提供一些背景說明,當時發生了什麼?是否有某些關鍵終端市場出現了真正的催化因素?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I would tell you, for international, Jeff, it was really a nice -- nice, driven by Electronics. I mean, there was really -- it was 24% with the 3-12 method. And last year, it was 0. So it was an easy comp of 0. But it was really driven by Electronics and In-Plants, double-digit growth for Asia Pacific and mid-single-digit growth for EMEA. So positive quarters across all the major market verticals, but really, the strength is Electronics.

    是的。Jeff,我會說國際市場的表現確實不錯——主要由電子業帶動。我的意思是——用 3-12 方法來看是 24%。而去年是 0。所以去年 0 的比較基期很容易。但主要確實是由電子業與 In-Plants 帶動,亞太為雙位數成長,EMEA 為中個位數成長。所有主要市場垂直領域都呈現正向季度表現,但強勁動能主要來自電子業。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • And then just thinking about the new framework here. If we look at the rolling for -- exit for Q4 2025, right, it almost exactly called the 2026 organic growth for both NA and International. So I guess the question here is for exiting at 9% to 10% here in Q4 on the roles, what sort of the gap or the hedge between sort of the 5% to 8% or the 4% to 7% that you're giving us in North America and International? Anything else to be aware of in that equation?

    接著再想一下這個新的框架。如果我們看滾動數據——也就是 2025 年第 4 季的退出水準,對吧——它幾乎精準對應到 2026 年北美與國際的有機成長。所以我的問題是:若在第 4 季滾動數據的退出水準是 9% 到 10%,那你們給的北美 5% 到 8%、國際 4% 到 7% 之間的差距或保守因子是什麼?在那個推導關係裡,還有什麼需要注意的嗎?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • What I would say, Jeff, is that obviously the orders remain a leading indicator, but they're not an exact forecast. I think the 12-12 gets us much closer, as you already pointed out. And the guidance is really in line with the progression of the orders that we've been seeing. Coming out of FY26 is 3.5% and guiding to 6%. We're really excited about that and really, really happy to see that Industrial business to be above 6%. And this is at the high end of our target range too, over the cycle, 4% to 6%. We also (inaudible) have 10% of Aerospace & Defense business on the -- in the Industrial. So that tends to be even a little bit longer.

    Jeff,我會說很明顯訂單仍是領先指標,但它不是精準的預測。我認為 12-12 會讓我們更接近,你剛才也提到了。而我們的指引基本上與我們看到的訂單走勢一致。FY26 走出來是 3.5%,我們指引到 6%。我們對此非常興奮,也非常、非常高興看到工業業務能高於 6%。而且這也在我們目標區間的高端——跨循環 4% 到 6%。另外我們(聽不清)在工業裡也包含 10% 的航太與國防業務。所以那部分的週期往往會更長一些。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • Even longer, yeah. All right. Great. Thanks for that color. I appreciate it.

    更長,對。好。很好。謝謝你補充這些背景。感謝。

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I would just add. When you look at the Industrial businesses, we are showing an increase from Q4 on an organic basis. When you look at the full year, the comps in the second half get a little bit tougher. So while the organic growth numbers are towards a little bit more from a percentage standpoint, a little bit more weighted in Q1 to [2].

    我再補充一下。當你看工業業務時,我們顯示第 4 季在有機基礎上有所提升。但如果看全年,下半年比較基期會稍微更具挑戰。因此,雖然有機成長率從百分比角度看會稍微更高一些,但會在第 1 季到[2] 季的比重稍微更高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

    Chris Snyder,Morgan Stanley。

  • Christopher Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher Snyder - Analyst

  • Maybe just following up on some of that commentary on the Industrial business line. So you guys guided every vertical to mid-single-digit growth in Industrial for next year. Can you just maybe talk about ones maybe that are exiting with more strength or the ones where you guys feel better about the prospects and the opportunity into '27?

    我想延續剛才對工業業務線的一些評論。你們指引工業領域明年每個垂直市場都是中個位數成長。你能否談談哪些領域在退出時動能更強,或哪些領域你們對前景與進入 27 年的機會更有信心?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, what I would say is, again, I'll repeat, as a reminder, 10% of Industrial sales are tied to Aerospace & Defense growing high single digits. So that is very strong. While it's not large enough to be a vertical, we are expecting another year of strong Electronics and Data Center business.

    嗯,我想我會說的是,再次重申、提醒一下,工業銷售中有 10% 與航太與國防(Aerospace & Defense)高個位數成長相關聯。所以這非常強勁。雖然規模還不足以成為一個垂直領域,我們預期電子與資料中心業務還會再有一年強勁表現。

  • When we look at the market vertical forecast and we look at In-Plant & Industrial equipment, we've been saying for quite some time, a gradual recovery here. And it's been very encouraging to see that the demand is improving, and we expect gradual acceleration on a broadening recovery. We've seen distribution orders be strong in the fourth quarter. We're not calling a full restock yet, but we have heard from some distributors that they are doing more stocking than they have done in the past. So we feel really good about what's going to happen in In-Plant & Industrial.

    當我們看市場垂直領域的預測,並看廠內(In-Plant)與工業設備時,我們已經講了相當一段時間,這裡會是逐步復甦。而看到需求正在改善,並且我們預期在復甦擴大之下會逐步加速,這令人非常振奮。我們看到第四季的通路訂單很強。我們還不會說已經全面補庫存,但我們也聽到一些經銷商表示,他們正在做比過去更多的備貨。所以我們對廠內與工業領域接下來的發展感覺非常好。

  • Transportation, strong heavy-duty truck orders. Build rates are increasing. When you look at Off-Highway, acceleration in Construction has been driven by infrastructure spend. And as I commented earlier, we see strong Power Gen growth in the Energy vertical. So a lot to be excited about here. And we feel good about the guide here at mid-single-digit growth.

    運輸方面,重型卡車訂單強勁。生產(build)速度正在提高。看非公路(Off-Highway)領域,建築的加速成長是由基礎建設支出所帶動。而如我先前提到的,我們在能源垂直領域看到發電(Power Gen)強勁成長。所以這裡有很多值得期待的地方。我們也對指引中位數個位數成長感到有信心。

  • Christopher Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher Snyder - Analyst

  • Absolutely. And then maybe going over to the M&A side. So obviously, you have the two big deals that are closing over the next quarter or so. Can you just maybe talk about the appetite or bandwidth to do incremental deals in '27? Or is it going to be a year more about focusing on just integrating those two businesses? So anything you could just kind of talk about the appetite willingness. Even anything just on the pipeline of opportunities you guys see.

    完全同意。接著也許談談併購(M&A)方面。很明顯,你們有兩筆大型交易會在接下來一季左右完成交割。你能否談談在 27 年做額外交易的意願或資源承載量(bandwidth)?還是說那會是一年更著重於整合這兩個業務?所以任何你能談的、關於意願與投入程度的看法。甚至你們看到的機會管線(pipeline)也都可以分享。

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So obviously, we're very, very committed to continuing to actively deploy our capital. We're going to get these two acquisitions closed. The teams are going to work hard on integration. But the work on the pipeline never stops. We are always working on that pipeline, building relationships with targets.

    好的。很明顯,我們非常、非常致力於持續積極部署資本。我們會把這兩項收購完成交割。團隊會努力進行整合。但對機會管線的工作永遠不會停止。我們一直都在經營那條管線,並與目標公司建立關係。

  • Many times, we're not in control of the timing of when these targets become available. So we might touch 3 with our levers with these two deals. It will take us about six quarters to get that back down to 2. So I would say we still have an appetite, but we're going to stay true to doing what makes sense for the company.

    很多時候,我們無法掌控這些標的何時會變得可交易的時點。所以在這兩筆交易之後,我們可能會把槓桿(levers)碰到 3 倍左右。大約需要六個季度才能把它降回到 2 倍。因此我會說我們仍然有意願,但我們會堅持只做對公司有意義的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Volkmann, Jefferies.

    Steve Volkmann,Jefferies。

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • I echo the embarrassment of (inaudible). I think you've tripled the margin since I started covering you guys. But in the spirit of what have you done for me lately, I'm curious, I think '27 might be -- we might be on track for an Analyst Day, and I know we've had Win 3.0 here doing well for the last few years. Is there a Win 4.0? And sort of what's next for The Win Strategy? Have you progressed from here?

    我也同感尷尬,關於(聽不清)。我想自從我開始追蹤你們以來,你們的利潤率已經翻了三倍。但本著「你最近為我做了什麼」的精神,我很好奇,我想 27 年可能——我們可能會安排一場分析師日(Analyst Day),而且我知道過去幾年 Win 3.0 表現很好。那會有 Win 4.0 嗎?接下來 The Win Strategy 的下一步是什麼?你們從這裡又推進到哪裡了?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So there will be a Win 4.0. Definitely, there will be. And we're talking about the next Investor Day now. So I would say stay tuned, but we definitely think that we'll have more things to share in the future.

    會有 Win 4.0,肯定會有。而我們現在也在討論下一次投資人日(Investor Day)。所以我會說敬請期待,但我們確實認為未來會有更多內容可以分享。

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • Okay. All right. We'll wait for that.

    好。好吧。那我們就等著。

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I just checked the math, you are correct. We have tripled margins since you've been covering us.

    我剛剛算了一下,你說得沒錯。自從你開始追蹤我們以來,我們的利潤率確實翻了三倍。

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • Yeah. I got it right. So just a quick -- a quick follow-up here. Are your orders getting a lot lumpier? Are you taking in some like some really chunky orders now and uncertainty around that, maybe that's behind the switch to the trailing 12 and maybe expecting that the fourth quarter might not be repeated going forward?

    是的。我算對了。那再快速追問一下。你們的訂單是不是變得更不均勻(lumpier)?你們現在是否接到一些非常大筆的訂單,而對其不確定性——也許這就是你們改用過去 12 個月(trailing 12)的原因,並且預期第四季的表現未必能在未來持續重複?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I wouldn't stay here sitting here today that I don't think the fourth quarter could be repeated. I will tell you that International orders have been very choppy in the past. We've also seen some quarters where we've had some high Aerospace & Defense orders that are very long term that have hit some of our businesses. And then the next couple of quarters, we don't see that. So we do think that this method of 12-12 is a much better correlation to what we can see for near-term organic growth.

    我不會坐在這裡、以今天的角度說我認為第四季不可能再現。我會告訴你,國際訂單過去一直非常波動。我們也看過某些季度,航太與國防有一些非常長期的大額訂單落到我們部分業務上。接著接下來幾個季度就看不到那樣的訂單。所以我們確實認為,這種 12-12 的方法,與我們對短期有機成長的可見度有更好的相關性。

  • The business is just so different than it was when we started reporting these quarterly order rate comparisons. Aerospace, Engineered Materials, and Filtration used to be 35% of the company, and now it's 65% of the company. So we really think that this is going to give a more accurate view of what's to come for organic growth.

    這門生意跟我們開始報告這些季度訂單率比較時已經非常不同了。航太、工程材料(Engineered Materials)與過濾(Filtration)過去占公司 35%,現在占 65%。所以我們真的認為,這會對未來有機成長提供更精準的視角。

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Steve, I would just add, when you think about orders that are lumpy, the Aerospace business is the business that jumps off the page. Today, 10% of the Industrial business is Aerospace & Defense end markets. So that does create some choppiness, whether that's in the Industrial, International businesses, or in the North America businesses. So what Jenny said is we feel that this is just a better way to look at it.

    Steve,我再補充一下,當你想到訂單不均勻(lumpy)時,最顯眼的就是航太業務。目前工業業務中有 10% 來自航太與國防終端市場。因此這確實會造成一些波動,不論是在工業、國際業務,或北美業務中。所以如 Jenny 所說,我們覺得這只是更好的觀察方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

    Andy Kaplowitz,Citigroup。

  • Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

    Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

  • Nice quarter. Jenny, I think you prudently initially forecasting 7% to 10% growth for Aero in FY27. But as you've said, you've now had four years in a row of double-digit growth in Aero, and I think backlog is up mid-teens. So maybe give us a little more lay of the land between what you're seeing in Commercial Aero & Defense. Are you still forecasting strong commercial aftermarket growth in FY27, for instance? Or do you expect to see much higher OE-related growth?

    很不錯的一季。Jenny,我認為你一開始很審慎地預估 FY27 航太成長 7% 到 10%。但如你所說,你們已經連續四年在航太達到雙位數成長,而且我想在手訂單(backlog)成長在十幾個百分點的中段。所以也許請你多談談你在商用航太與國防看到的整體情況。例如,你在 FY27 仍預期商用售後市場(commercial aftermarket)會強勁成長嗎?或者你預期會看到與 OE 相關的成長高出很多?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So I'll give you the rundown of what we have built into the guidance. So for commercial OEM, well, first of all, the OE aftermarket split that we have in the guidance is 52% OE, 48% aftermarket. And we just ended the year at 51% OE, 49% aftermarket. So we're planning on higher OE mix here.

    好的。我來說明一下我們在指引中納入了哪些假設。就商用 OEM 而言,首先,我們在指引中對 OE 與售後市場的拆分是:OE 52%,售後 48%。而我們剛結束的年度是 OE 51%,售後 49%。所以我們在這裡規劃的是更高的 OE 組合占比。

  • Commercial OEM, we see mid-teens growth for the fiscal year, and that's really built on commercial aircraft build rate increases. Aircraft demand is still greater than supply, and widebodies are growing to meet international traffic demand.

    商用 OEM 方面,我們預期本會計年度成長為十幾個百分點的中段,這主要建立在商用飛機生產速率提升之上。飛機需求仍大於供給,而寬體機正在成長以滿足國際交通需求。

  • Commercial MRO, we're seeing plus mid-single-digit growth for fiscal year '27. There's still a lot of older aircraft line. The fleet still relies on that into repair shop visits and component restacking continues. And again, international traffic continues to grow faster than domestic.

    商用 MRO 方面,我們預期 2027 會計年度將呈現中個位數以上的成長。目前仍有大量較老舊的機隊。機隊仍仰賴這些老舊機型進廠維修,且零組件重新堆疊(component restacking)也持續進行。另外,國際航班流量的成長仍快於國內航班。

  • On Defense OEM, mid-single-digit growth, demand for legacy and missile programs continues, increasing Defense budgets in response to what's going on in the world, and F-35 deliveries are at peak.

    國防 OEM 方面,預期中個位數成長;對傳統(legacy)與飛彈計畫的需求持續,因應全球局勢而提高的國防預算也在推動需求,而 F-35 交付量正處於高峰。

  • Defense MRO, plus mid-single-digit growth, and that's really based on fleet upgrades and service extensions, increasing Defense budgets and a focus on retrofits and upgrades. So bringing that all together is how we've come up with the guidance for the full year.

    國防 MRO 方面,預期中個位數以上成長,主要來自機隊升級與延壽服務、國防預算增加,以及對改裝(retrofits)與升級的聚焦。因此,把這些因素綜合起來,就是我們提出全年指引的依據。

  • Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

    Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

  • Very helpful, Jenny. And then, Todd, for the FY27 margin guide, it was nice to hear that you're guiding to the high end of your normal 30% to 35% incrementals. But obviously, you've been trending closer to 40%. So how should we think about mix or any price cost headwinds impacting the businesses? FY27? I assume you do want to be somewhat conservative, given those things.

    非常有幫助,Jenny。接著,Todd,關於 FY27 的毛利率指引,很高興聽到你們指引落在你們正常 30% 到 35% 增量利潤率(incrementals)的高端。但顯然你們近期的趨勢更接近 40%。那我們應該如何看待產品組合(mix)或任何價格/成本逆風對各業務的影響?FY27 呢?我猜在考量這些因素下,你們確實會想要保守一些。

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, that's a great point. When it comes to price, we're obviously going to cover any increases that come across, whether that is tariffs, whether that is labor, whether that's logistics, commodities, so that will be in there. But we've said this constantly, we want to return to a normal pricing environment. And what better time to do that is when you're not on the growth here.

    是的,這點說得很好。就價格而言,我們顯然會涵蓋任何出現的成本上升,不論是關稅、勞動力、物流或大宗商品,這些都會反映在其中。但我們一直在說,我們希望回到正常的定價環境。而在成長不那麼強勁的時候,正是回到正常定價的最佳時機。

  • So when you look across the businesses, we are at the higher end of that 30% to 35% range. It feels good when we look at -- when we pressure tested it internally, it looks abnormal when it comes to timing on those incrementals.

    因此,當你檢視各個業務時,我們確實落在 30% 到 35% 區間的高端。當我們在內部做壓力測試時,從增量利潤率的時點(timing)來看,若更高反而會顯得不太正常。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mig Dobre, Baird.

    Mig Dobre,Baird。

  • Mircea Dobre

    Mircea Dobre

  • A couple of longer-term questions that I guess I'm just going to roll into one. From a capacity standpoint, when we kind of look at your growth, right, you talked about higher growth than what you've had in the past. And I'm sort of curious, it's where you are from a capacity standpoint in your facilities, manufacturing facilities to be able to deliver on that sustained higher growth over the next few years. So maybe it'd be helpful if you can comment on that, and I'm thinking about the Industrial business specifically.

    我有幾個偏長期的問題,我想把它們合併成一個來問。從產能角度來看,當我們看你們的成長時,你提到未來的成長高於過去。我想了解的是,就產能而言,你們的廠房、製造設施目前處於什麼狀態,是否足以在未來幾年支撐這種較高且可持續的成長。也許你可以談談這點,我特別想到的是工業(Industrial)業務。

  • And related to all of this, you guide for CapEx here, 2.5% of sales, which is pretty much consistent with what you've done historically. A lot of other industrial companies that are talking about higher growth are also talking about higher CapEx and investing in capacity. So I'm curious if your circumstances are different and whether or not we should be planning for maybe a little more CapEx as we think about later in a decade or maybe early 2030?

    另外也相關的是,你們這裡給的資本支出(CapEx)指引為營收的 2.5%,基本上與你們歷史水準一致。許多其他談到更高成長的工業公司,也同時談到更高的 CapEx、投資擴充產能。所以我想知道你們的情況是否不同,以及當我們展望本十年後期或可能 2030 年初時,是否應該預期 CapEx 會再高一些?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So actually, Mig, the last -- outside of the last couple of years, we were really more around 2% or a little bit under. And it's just within the last couple of years that were higher at 2.5%. And we have definitely invested in capacity over the last couple of years, and we have some capacity expansion built into this year. So I think in some businesses, the capacity is already there. Others, we can see that we had to improve, but we're not expecting anything more than we've guided to right now.

    是的。其實,Mig,除了最近幾年之外,我們大多是在 2% 或略低一些。也就是在最近幾年才提高到 2.5%。而且過去幾年我們確實已投資擴充產能,今年的計畫中也包含一些產能擴張。所以我認為,有些業務的產能已經到位。其他業務我們也看得到需要改善之處,但我們目前不預期會超出現在所給的指引水準。

  • Another thing, too, that I would tell you is just our ongoing continuous improvement culture and everything that we do with Kaizen and our lean tools. The whole output of that is, number one, a better working environment for the team member, but higher output and efficiency. And we've really greatly benefited from that over the last several years. So I think that just kept some of our capacity expansion at a much lower rate than possibly others. So we have invested in capacity. We'll continue to do so.

    另外我也想補充的是,我們持續推動的持續改善文化,以及我們透過 Kaizen(改善)與精實工具所做的一切。這些的成果,第一是為團隊成員帶來更好的工作環境,同時也帶來更高的產出與效率。過去幾年我們確實從中獲益良多。因此,我認為這也讓我們的產能擴張需求維持在相對較低的水準,可能比其他公司更低。我們已經投資產能,也會持續投資。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jamie Cook, Truist.

    Jamie Cook,Truist。

  • Jamie Cook - Analyst

    Jamie Cook - Analyst

  • Congrats on another fantastic quarter of guidance rate -- and guidance raise. I guess a couple of questions. Just Jenny, back to Sprague's question. I don't think you commented on the strength in North America orders, the up 16%. So sort of what were the end market drivers there? And was there any lumpiness?

    恭喜又交出一個非常出色的季度指引——而且還上調指引。我有幾個問題。Jenny,回到 Sprague 的問題。我不覺得你有評論北美訂單的強勁表現,成長 16%。所以那裡的終端市場驅動因素是什麼?是否有任何一次性波動(lumpiness)?

  • And even within International, you commented specifically on Electronics. Just trying to get a feel for what's going on in the other end markets?

    另外在國際市場方面,你特別提到了電子。我想了解其他終端市場的情況如何?

  • And then I guess my second question is just, congrats on raising the medium-term targets to 30%. How do we think about what's implied in that margin target in terms of International versus Aerospace? Do you think, over the next several years, we can get to a point where International closes the gap on Aerospace, orders Aerospace continued to move higher to get you to that 30%?

    然後我的第二個問題是,恭喜把中期目標上調到 30%。就這個毛利率目標而言,我們應該如何看待其中隱含的國際業務相對於航太業務的貢獻?你認為未來幾年,國際業務能否縮小與航太的差距,還是航太訂單會持續走高,從而推動你們達到 30%?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Well, I'll take the first half of that, and then I'll pass it over to Todd. So first of all, for orders in Q4 in North America, obviously, 16% on the 3-12 and 9 on the 12-12 that we're talking about. So strength in Aerospace & Defense, In-Plant. And I mentioned that we saw distribution orders much stronger in Q4. Construction, again, on infrastructure spending and heavy-duty truck and Commercial HVAC. So really, we saw positive orders across all of the major market verticals.

    好的。我先回答前半段,然後再交給 Todd。首先,北美在第四季的訂單,如我們所談,3-12 為 16%,12-12 為 9%。航太與國防、In-Plant(駐廠服務)表現強勁。我也提到我們看到第四季的經銷(distribution)訂單明顯更強。營建方面,受惠於基礎建設支出,以及重型卡車與商用 HVAC。因此,我們在所有主要市場垂直領域都看到正向的訂單表現。

  • International, plus 24%. I did mention earlier that kind of that easy comp, but still 10 on a 12 12, and it was really driven by Electronics and In-Plant. Double-digit growth for Asia Pacific and mid-single-digit growth for EMEA. In EMEA, we do see some strength in Construction and Mining and some In-Plant. But again, positive orders across all of those verticals. And with Aerospace, listen, double-digit growth in both commercial OEM and aftermarket and strength in Defense OEMs. So Defense OEM was stronger than expected with double digits order growth. So really just a really nice quarter for orders.

    國際市場成長 24%。我先前確實提到基期較容易,但 12-12 仍有 10%,主要由電子與 In-Plant 驅動。亞太為雙位數成長,EMEA 為中個位數成長。在 EMEA,我們看到營建與礦業以及部分 In-Plant 的強勁表現。但同樣地,這些垂直領域的訂單都呈現正向。至於航太,商用 OEM 與售後市場皆為雙位數成長,國防 OEM 也很強。國防 OEM 的訂單成長為雙位數,強於預期。所以整體而言,訂單表現是一個非常漂亮的季度。

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Jamie, I could speak about the FY31 walk. The thing I love about these targets is, is that everyone has a part in these targets, just like the way we got to over 27%. Every single one of our businesses has generated higher margins than they did when we started those targets. So everyone's got a new target, and that's what I love about the company.

    Jamie,我可以談談 FY31 的拆解路徑(walk)。我喜歡這些目標的一點是,每個人都在這些目標中扮演角色,就像我們達到超過 27% 一樣。我們每一個業務的利潤率,都比我們設定那些目標時的起點更高。所以每個人都有新的目標,而這正是我喜歡這家公司的地方。

  • Aerospace has been outsized when it comes to margin expansion, four years of double-digit organic growth, great aftermarket exposure, and growth has really helped that. But we expect every one of these businesses to be part of our walk to FY30, including Aerospace.

    航太業務在利潤率擴張方面表現特別突出,連續四年達成兩位數的有機成長,且具備很好的售後市場曝險,而成長確實對此有很大助益。但我們預期這些業務都將成為我們邁向 FY30 的一部分,包括航太。

  • Our International teams have done an unbelievable job. They are constantly looking at growth opportunities, cost out opportunities. And that's no different than North America. My gut feel here would say that North America or the Industrial businesses will expand more than Aerospace, just with what Aerospace has on its plate with next-gen investments and OEM mix. They still will expand margins, but I think the Industrial businesses will expand at a greater clip as we walk to FY30.

    我們的國際團隊做得非常出色。他們持續在尋找成長機會、降本機會。這點與北美並無不同。我直覺認為,北美或工業業務的擴張幅度會大於航太,主要是因為航太在下一代投資以及 OEM 組合方面有不少事情要做。航太的利潤率仍會擴張,但我認為在我們邁向 FY30 的過程中,工業業務的擴張速度會更快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tim Thein, Raymond James.

    Tim Thein,Raymond James。

  • Timothy Thein - Analyst

    Timothy Thein - Analyst

  • I had a longer-term question on Aerospace within the context of your 2031 target, the organic growth target. I'm just curious, I mean, they're obviously coming off what is, as Todd pointed out, a really long stretch of growth. But the demand backdrop for both Commercial and Defense seems to be getting a bit better. So -- and you obviously have a bit more visibility here given the backlog. So how would you think about that kind of growth algorithm for Aerospace looking out beyond '27?

    我有一個關於航太的較長期問題,放在你們 2031 年目標、也就是有機成長目標的脈絡下來看。我只是好奇,畢竟如 Todd 所指出的,他們顯然剛走過一段非常長的成長期。但商用與國防兩端的需求背景似乎都在變得更好一些。而且考量到積壓訂單,你們顯然也有更高的能見度。那麼你們會如何看待航太在 2027 年之後的成長模型?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • We've forecasted long-term growth drivers for each of the areas in Aerospace. And we see Aerospace as high single digits through that time period. So we feel like it's going to be -- it's going to continue at that rate until the time that we reach these targets.

    我們已針對航太各領域的長期成長驅動因素做了預測。我們認為在那段期間航太將維持高個位數成長。因此我們覺得它會——會以那樣的速度持續成長,直到我們達成這些目標為止。

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • We also have the CIRCOR Aerospace and Defense business. When that closes, that will be another growth driver, obviously, from the inquisitive side, but once that becomes organic over the five-year period, that will be another growth driver when it comes to Aerospace. And again, I can't de-emphasize enough, 10% of the Industrial business has Aerospace & Defense end market exposure.

    我們也有 CIRCOR 的航太與國防業務。該交易完成後,從併購角度來看,顯然會成為另一個成長驅動因素;但當它在五年期間內轉為有機成長後,對航太而言也會是另一個成長驅動。另外我再怎麼強調都不為過:工業業務中有 10% 的終端市場曝險來自航太與國防。

  • Timothy Thein - Analyst

    Timothy Thein - Analyst

  • Yeah. All right. Understood. And then just on more near term on pricing with respect to Aerospace, just given some of the LTA that, I'm guessing where it may have been renegotiated coming out of COVID, it may have provided a little bit of a bump. Are we kind of back to a setting where those are more, I guess, normal in terms of the -- I guess, the spirit of the question is just the contribution to price, not asking for quantification, but just directionally how that is trending in in '27?

    是的。好。了解。接著就較近端來看,關於航太的定價——考量到一些長期協議(LTA),我猜測在 COVID 之後重新談判時,可能帶來了一點點提振。我們是否大致回到一個更「正常」的狀態?我想問的重點是價格的貢獻,不是要你量化,只是方向性地看,到了 2027 年這個趨勢會如何?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So on the Industrial side of the business, we are back to a -- what we would consider more of a normal pricing environment. And in Aerospace, there's still pricing opportunity. There have been a lot of negotiations. There are some negotiations that are still in play. So I would say that there's still some opportunity in Aerospace.

    是的。就工業業務而言,我們已回到——我們認為更正常的定價環境。而在航太方面,仍然有定價機會。已經進行了很多談判。也還有一些談判仍在進行中。所以我會說,航太仍有一些機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

    Amit Mehrotra,UBS。

  • Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

    Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

  • I guess the first one, just on the North American Industrial inflection, the 16% growth for orders. Any color you could talk about between sort of the distribution channel and the direct OEM channel? I know the distributor channel has been maybe a little bit more stubborn. And I think you talked about it a little bit more positively, but any more color around the activity you're seeing and the confidence coming back in that specific channel?

    我想先問第一個,關於北美工業業務的拐點——訂單成長 16%。你能否談談經銷通路與直接 OEM 通路之間的情況?我知道經銷商通路可能一直比較頑強(恢復較慢)。我想你們也稍微更正面地談過,但能否再多補充一些你們看到的活動狀況,以及在那個特定通路上信心回升的情形?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Well, I've been saying for a lot of quarters here that distributors have been very positive. And the order growth, the strength that we saw in Q4 really supports that positive sentiment and what they've been telling us. So we definitely feel like that is a broadening recovery instead of what we've just been saying is a gradual recovery. So we feel good about that.

    是的。我在這裡已經連續好幾個季度都在說,經銷商一直非常正面。而我們在第四季看到的訂單成長與強勁表現,確實支持了那種正面情緒,以及他們一直告訴我們的情況。所以我們明確感覺這是一個更廣泛的復甦,而不只是我們之前所說的逐步復甦。因此我們對此感到樂觀。

  • Still not calling a restock though. Some distributors are telling us that they are stocking for projects that they're working on for their customers or business that they see coming. But I wouldn't call the whole channel as an overall restock.

    不過我們仍不會稱之為補庫存。有些經銷商告訴我們,他們是在為客戶正在進行的專案,或他們看到即將到來的業務而備貨。但我不會把整個通路整體稱作是在補庫存。

  • On the OEM side, obviously, we've seen production rates increase for heavy-duty trucks. That's been very encouraging. We've seen construction and mining get stronger. But we've also seen Agriculture remain where it's been pretty soft and Automotive is pretty soft, but there's Commercial HVAC and Refrigeration that is growing. There's Energy with Power Gen. So there's been some strong OEM orders and strong OEM growth along with what we see in distribution.

    在 OEM 端,顯然我們看到重型卡車的產量提升。這非常令人鼓舞。我們也看到建築與礦業走強。但我們也看到農業仍維持在相當疲弱的狀態,汽車也相當疲弱;不過商用 HVAC 與冷凍(Refrigeration)正在成長。能源方面有發電(Power Gen)。因此,除了我們在經銷通路看到的情況之外,OEM 端也出現了一些強勁的訂單與成長。

  • Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

    Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And just the sort of natural follow-up question to that is, obviously, the mix dynamic, if there is one between distributors versus OEM have -- I know you've taken a lot of price in the distribution channel and we're kind of waiting for the volume to recover. If I think about this guidance as an inflection in growth, organic growth in North America and Industrial, is it all the incremental -- is it all volume? Is there a little bit more price as maybe some of that distribution volume comes through? Just give us a little bit of a flavor, specifically with North America and Industrial.

    好的。那順勢追問一下,顯然在經銷商與 OEM 之間若存在組合動態——我知道你們在經銷通路已經做了很多提價,而我們一直在等量回來。如果我把這份指引視為北美與工業業務有機成長的拐點,增量部分——是否全部都是量?還是說隨著部分經銷量回來,價格也會多一點?請就北美與工業業務給我們一點感覺。

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. We're back to a normal pricing environment here, and this is all volume.

    是的。我們已回到正常的定價環境,而這全部都是量的貢獻。

  • Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

    Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Okay, easy enough. Very good. Thank you. Congrats.

    好的。好的,很簡單。非常好。謝謝。恭喜。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Buscaglia, BNP Paribas.

    Andrew Buscaglia,BNP Paribas。

  • Andrew Buscaglia - Analyst

    Andrew Buscaglia - Analyst

  • I know this is small, but can you comment on your data center exposure? I believe you have some interesting equipment hoses and connectors that play into the space. And I'm wondering if we're seeing interesting order activity there? And then any comments you can make on are you seeing any specification activity related to liquid cooling as an interesting growth driver?

    我知道這部分不大,但你能評論一下你們在資料中心的曝險嗎?我相信你們有一些很有意思的設備用軟管與連接器可用於這個領域。我想了解我們是否看到那裡有有趣的訂單活動?另外,關於液冷作為一個有趣的成長驅動因素,你們是否看到任何與規格(specification)相關的活動?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So we do have really nice exposure. And it grew nicely last year, and we think it's going to continue to grow. It's about 1.5% of our sales. And we've been previously saying 1%. So it is growing, but it's not quite large enough yet to have its own market vertical.

    是的。所以我們確實有很好的曝險。去年成長得不錯,我們認為會持續成長。約占我們銷售額的 1.5%。我們之前一直說是 1%。所以它確實在成長,但規模還不夠大到可以成為一個獨立的市場垂直領域。

  • This is a great story for our interconnected technologies because you mentioned a few of our products, but it's hoses, couplings, manifold, bidding, engineered materials for thermal management. So really, really a good showcase of all of the corporate technologies. And we are working with industry leaders. We are seeing good orders here. We provide liquid cooling systems and subsystem components. So our teams are doing a really fantastic job in this space. We have a very highly skilled, high-performance team serving these data center customers. And as I mentioned, it's a nice growth area.

    這對我們的互連技術(interconnected technologies)來說是一個很棒的故事,因為你提到我們的一些產品,但其實涵蓋軟管、接頭、歧管、管路(tubing)、用於熱管理的工程材料。所以這真的是所有公司技術的一個非常、非常好的展示。而且我們正與產業領導者合作。我們在這裡看到不錯的訂單。我們提供液冷系統與子系統零組件。因此我們的團隊在這個領域做得非常出色。我們有一支技術非常純熟、績效卓越的團隊在服務這些資料中心客戶。如我所提到的,這是一個不錯的成長領域。

  • Andrew Buscaglia - Analyst

    Andrew Buscaglia - Analyst

  • Okay. And maybe just on the longer-term outlook. I couldn't help but notice you called for about 200 basis point margin expansion in 2027 to 2029 and a 300 basis point step up from 2029 to 2031. I think I got that right. Why would you -- what gives that confidence do you see sort of an acceleration in your margins? And I wonder if it's pertaining to the recent acquisitions that you expect to close?

    好的。另外也想請教一下較長期的展望。我注意到你們提到在2027到2029年大約有200個基點的利潤率擴張,且從2029到2031年再提升300個基點。我想我理解得沒錯。為什麼會——是什麼讓你們有信心看到利潤率出現某種加速?我也想知道,這是否與你們預期將完成交割的近期併購有關?

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, I could take that. Just to clarify, what we are calling out is we're calling out 300 basis points of improvement from a 27.0% target that we just surpassed in FY26. That was originally our FY29 target. We're restating that to FY31, and the new target is 30% adjusted segment operating margin.

    是的,我可以回答。先澄清一下,我們所指出的是:從FY26剛剛超越的27.0%目標出發,提升300個基點。那原本是我們FY29的目標。我們把它重新表述為FY31,而新的目標是30%的調整後分部營業利潤率。

  • So as far as what's going to get us there, we have included the Filtration Group Corporation acquisition and the CIRCOR Aerospace and Defense business in those margin targets. But when you look at that, it's really coming from our existing business just because of the size of the existing business is so much greater than those two great additions we're going to have, and it's going to be everything that got us to 27.3% this year, just more of it. So we feel really confident about the walk to get there, and it should be spread pretty equally across those years, each of the five years.

    至於我們如何達成,我們已將Filtration Group Corporation的收購案以及CIRCOR航太與國防業務納入這些利潤率目標之中。但你若看整體,其實主要仍來自我們既有業務,因為既有業務的規模遠大於我們即將納入的這兩項很棒的新增項目;而且將會是今年把我們帶到27.3%的所有因素——只是更多、更深化。因此我們對達成路徑非常有信心,而且應該會在這五年期間相當平均地分布在各年度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

    Nicole DeBlase,德意志銀行。

  • Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

    Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

  • Echoing my congrats on a really great quarter. I guess maybe first, Jenny, if we could touch on how the orders progressed throughout the quarter? And if you've observed continued strength in July, I would assume so based on what you guys expect for '27, but would love to hear any perspective on that.

    也跟大家一起恭喜你們這個非常出色的季度。我想先請教,Jenny,能否談談本季訂單在季度內的推進情況?以及你們是否觀察到7月仍持續強勁?我想應該是,因為你們對'27年的預期如此,但也很想聽聽你們的看法。

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I would say that there's nothing that's happened that concerns me that would not support the guide that we put out.

    我會說,目前沒有發生任何讓我擔心、或是不支持我們所發布指引的事情。

  • Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

    Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

  • Okay. Understood. And then with the Electronics strength in International, was that like other big lumpy orders that are coming through in the quarter? Do you -- what I'm trying to get at is, is that Electronics strength sustainable? Or do you think that was kind of like a 4Q dynamic that might not last into 2027?

    好的。了解。另外,國際市場電子業務的強勁表現,是不是因為本季有其他大型、較具一次性的(lumpy)訂單進來?我想問的是,這樣的電子業務強勢是否可持續?還是你認為那比較像是第4季的動態,可能無法延續到2027年?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think it's going to remain strong. I mean, obviously, it came in much stronger than we were expecting. I think we had about a 10% in for Asia Pacific, and it came in much stronger. So I would say the guide reflects what we expect out of International. But this is a strong area for us.

    我認為會維持強勁。我的意思是,顯然它比我們預期強很多。我想我們原本對亞太的假設大約是10%,但實際表現強得多。所以我會說,我們的指引反映了我們對國際市場的預期。但這確實是我們的一個強項領域。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nathan Jones, Stifel.

    Nathan Jones,Stifel。

  • Nathan Jones - Analyst

    Nathan Jones - Analyst

  • I guess I'll follow up a little bit on some of the International order strength here, kind of alerting that there's a good chance that that continues. If it does, would that maybe improve the outlook for the second half of fiscal '27? And in the guidance that you've given out today, do you assume that some of this order strength in International and in North America continues? Or did it moderate a little bit from here?

    我想就國際訂單強勁這點再追問一下,你們似乎在提示這很可能會延續。如果真的延續,是否可能改善你們對FY'27下半年的展望?另外,在你們今天給出的指引中,你們是否假設國際與北美的部分訂單強勢會持續?還是你們假設從這裡開始會稍微降溫一些?

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • What we have in the guide right now is what we see with the order progression that's out there. So obviously, we did have a very strong Q4. We believe that we have the orders to support what we have in for Q1 and for the rest of the year. So I would tell you that, obviously, we -- as the year goes on, we hope that we can raise those, but this is the best picture we have right now.

    我們目前指引所反映的是,我們從外部看到的訂單推進情況。所以很明顯,我們第4季確實非常強勁。我們相信我們手上的訂單足以支撐第1季以及全年其餘時間的預期。所以我會告訴你,當然——隨著年度進行,我們希望能上調這些數字,但就目前而言,這是我們現在能掌握的最佳圖像。

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Well, our 48-52 split somehow works out every year, year after year. That's what we are guiding for here. I think it's more of a comp issue. Just the second half of FY26 was so good, the comps get a little bit tougher. But if you look at the dollars, the dollars are weighted like they normally are much heavier in the second half.

    嗯,我們的48-52拆分不知怎麼地每年都能對上,年復一年。這就是我們這次指引所採用的。我認為更多是同比基期(comp)的問題。只是FY26下半年表現太好了,所以同比會變得稍微更具挑戰。但如果你看金額,金額的權重仍像往常一樣,下半年通常會重得多。

  • Nathan Jones - Analyst

    Nathan Jones - Analyst

  • A follow-up question on the CIRCOR Aerospace business. Can you just talk a little bit more about what the strategy is with that? I think it already has extremely high margins after it got rid of all the build-to-print work several years ago. So is this a revenue synergy play? What doesn't seem like it would be a cost synergy play given the margins are already high. But just any comments you could make around the strategy for that acquisition, please?

    關於CIRCOR航太業務的追問。能否再多談一點你們對它的策略是什麼?我認為它在幾年前剝離所有按圖製造(build-to-print)業務後,利潤率已經非常高。所以這是一個營收協同的布局嗎?看起來不像是成本協同,因為利潤率已經很高了。但仍請你們就這項收購的策略提供一些評論,謝謝。

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. So it is the highest growth, highest margin acquisition to date. What we love about CIRCOR is it brings complementary flight critical motion and flow control capabilities to our portfolio. And as I mentioned before, these are proprietary technologies. This is what we like to bring into our suite of projects.

    當然。所以這是我們迄今為止成長性最高、利潤率最高的一筆收購。我們喜歡CIRCOR的原因在於,它為我們的產品組合帶來互補的飛行關鍵(flight critical)運動與流體控制能力。而且如我先前提到,這些都是專有技術。這正是我們喜歡納入我們專案組合的能力。

  • This is an 80% OEM business and 50-50 sales split across commercial and defense. We have not modeled any revenue synergies. We have said 10% synergies. That's approximately $26 million. They ended calendar year '26 -- their estimate for calendar year '26 is $270 million with more than 40% adjusted EBITDA margins, and that's before synergies. So this is going to be a really nice addition to our portfolio. And like I said earlier, we'll get this hopefully close before the end of this calendar year.

    這是一個80%為OEM的業務,且在商用與國防之間的銷售占比為50/50。我們沒有把任何營收協同納入模型。我們提到的是10%的協同效益。約為2,600萬美元。他們在曆年'26結束時——他們對曆年'26的估計是2.70億美元,調整後EBITDA利潤率超過40%,而且這還是在協同之前。因此這將會是我們產品組合中非常好的新增項目。而且如我先前所說,我們希望能在今年曆年結束前完成交割。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Giordano, TD Cowen.

    Joe Giordano,TD Cowen。

  • Joe Giordano - Analyst

    Joe Giordano - Analyst

  • Yeah. The growth by end market that you guys have for next year, like how consistent is that with where order rates were for you by those end markets for '26?

    是的。你們對明年按終端市場拆分的成長預期,和你們在'26年按這些終端市場的訂單率表現相比,一致性如何?

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So I think it's pretty consistent. We finished the year pretty strong on an order to exit rate. We called out the longer cycle nature of some of those things. But what we're guiding for, to give you an example for Q1, is a slight increase from where we exited Q4. So like Jenny said, I think we're giving you the best look that we can right now with the visibility that we have. And we feel pretty positive. This is the highest organic growth guide that we've had in modern history.

    我認為相當一致。我們在訂單退出率(order to exit rate)方面以相當強勁的態勢結束了年度。我們也提到其中一些項目具有較長週期的特性。但以我們對第1季的指引為例,是較我們第4季退出水準略有增加。所以如Jenny所說,我認為以我們目前的可視性而言,我們已提供我們現在所能給出的最佳展望。而且我們感覺相當正面。這是我們在近代史上給出過的最高有機成長指引。

  • Joe Giordano - Analyst

    Joe Giordano - Analyst

  • And that's consistent on like an end market basis as well? Like is there not like a buildup of backlog anywhere in any of those particular end markets that --?

    而且在終端市場層面也同樣一致嗎?例如在任何特定終端市場,是否沒有出現任何積壓(backlog)堆積的情況,導致--?

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • There might be a little bit more strength in heavy-duty truck, but everything else is pretty consistent. That's why they're all mid-single-digit growth.

    重型卡車可能會稍微更強一些,但其他方面都相當一致。這就是為什麼它們全都是中個位數成長。

  • Joe Giordano - Analyst

    Joe Giordano - Analyst

  • And you don't feel like the pull forward or anything into the fourth quarter from anything that would have been 1Q orders?

    那你們不覺得會有任何提前拉貨到第四季的情況,或是因為原本會是第一季的訂單而提前到第四季嗎?

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • No. We've never really experienced that. I think our focus for years has been on delivering to customers when they need it. And we've been active on price and making sure that there's no slippage in when orders were placed so.

    不。我們其實從未真正遇到過那種情況。我認為多年來我們的重點一直是,在客戶需要的時候交付給他們。而且我們在價格上也很積極,並確保訂單下達的時間不會出現任何延遲,所以。

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, one of the things that we've worked really hard on the last several years is demand and capacity planning with our customers and with our suppliers. So that's something that's given us the ability to be much more efficient in our operations and make sure that the customers know that they can get the product from Parker in a stated lead time.

    是的,我們過去幾年非常努力的一件事,就是與客戶以及供應商一起進行需求與產能規劃。因此,這讓我們能夠在營運上更有效率,並確保客戶知道他們可以在既定的交期內從 Parker 取得產品。

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Bo, I think we might have time for one more, if we have anyone left in the queue.

    Bo,我想如果隊列裡還有人,我們可能還有時間再接一位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chigusa Katoku, JPMorgan.

    JPMorgan 的 Chigusa Katoku。

  • Chigusa Katoku - Analyst

    Chigusa Katoku - Analyst

  • I just want to touch briefly on Energy. I think it's a tale of two worlds: Power, strong; and Oil & Gas, softer. I think last quarter, you expected 2026 was about low single digit for this vertical and you're expecting mid-single digit this year. Just curious, is it more driven by Power being stronger and Oil & Gas kind of unchanged? Just any color there would be great.

    我想簡單談一下能源。我覺得這像是兩個世界的故事:電力很強;而油氣較疲弱。我記得上季你們預期 2026 年這個垂直領域大約是低個位數,而今年你們預期是中個位數。想請教,這是否主要是由於電力更強、而油氣大致不變所驅動?如果能提供一些補充說明就太好了。

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. We definitely see Power Gen growth, and we think that's going to continue to be strong and a little bit stronger. Oil & Gas, we think it's going to be flat. There could be an up cycle coming, but we don't have any signs of that yet. So this is flat Oil & Gas and stronger Power Gen growth.

    是的。我們確實看到發電(Power Gen)成長,而且我們認為這將持續強勁,並且會再強一些。油氣方面,我們認為會持平。可能會有一波上行週期到來,但我們目前還沒有看到任何跡象。所以就是油氣持平、發電成長更強。

  • Chigusa Katoku - Analyst

    Chigusa Katoku - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then just trying to put a finer point on the orders acceleration in North America Industrial. It really accelerated nicely. It sounded like it was broad-based. I didn't hear you call out power or data center, but what were kind of the trends there? Just if you could put any finer point on what really led to this acceleration versus the third quarter, that would be helpful.

    好的。很好。另外我想更精準地理解北美工業(North America Industrial)訂單加速的情況。它加速得非常漂亮。聽起來是廣泛性的。我沒有聽到你特別提到電力或資料中心,但那邊的趨勢是什麼?如果你能更具體說明,究竟是什麼因素相較第三季帶動了這次加速,會很有幫助。

  • Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jennifer Parmentier - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I mean it was across many market verticals. We saw strong Aerospace & Defense in the Industrial businesses, In-Plant & Industrial demand, higher distribution. We saw Transportation improvement with heavy truck. We saw Construction growth. We saw Power Gen growth and Commercial HVAC. So we just saw really, really nice growth across all the market verticals.

    是的。我的意思是,這涵蓋了許多市場垂直領域。我們在工業業務中看到航太與國防(Aerospace & Defense)強勁、廠內(In-Plant)與工業需求強勁、通路(distribution)更高。我們看到運輸(Transportation)隨著重型卡車而改善。我們看到建築(Construction)成長。我們看到發電(Power Gen)成長以及商用 HVAC。所以我們確實看到在所有市場垂直領域都出現非常、非常好的成長。

  • Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Leombruno - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Okay. I think that is what we have from a time standpoint. We appreciate everyone joining today. We appreciate your attention. FY26 was just a great year for Parker-Hannifin. It was our safest year ever. It was another year of operational excellence. And obviously, as Jenny said, a very active year when it comes to capital deployment.

    好的。就時間而言,我想我們今天就到這裡。感謝各位今天的參與。感謝各位的關注。FY26 對 Parker-Hannifin 來說是非常棒的一年。這是我們有史以來最安全的一年。這也是營運卓越的又一年。而且顯然,如 Jenny 所說,在資本配置方面也是非常積極的一年。

  • We are looking forward to even better FY27. We are confident in that path through our new 30% segment operating margin target by FY31. And really, none of this could be possible without a sincere thank you to our global team members around the world and to our investors for your interest in Parker-Hannifin. So thank you all very much.

    我們期待 FY27 會更好。我們對於透過新的 FY31 前達成 30% 事業部營業利益率目標的路徑充滿信心。而且坦白說,若沒有我們遍布全球的團隊成員,以及投資人對 Parker-Hannifin 的關注,這一切都不可能實現;在此致上由衷的感謝。非常謝謝大家。

  • Jeff and Jenna will be available today, if there's any follow-ups that are needed. Thanks again for joining us, and have a great day.

    如果需要任何後續追問,Jeff 和 Jenna 今天都會在。再次感謝各位加入我們,祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much, Mr. Leombruno, and thank you, Ms. Parmentier. Again, ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude today's Parker-Hannifin Corporation's fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and full year earnings conference call and webcast. Again, thanks so much for joining us, everyone. We wish you all a great afternoon. Goodbye.

    非常感謝 Leombruno 先生,也感謝 Parmentier 女士。各位女士、先生,再次提醒,今天的 Parker-Hannifin Corporation 2026 會計年度第四季及全年財報電話會議與網路直播到此結束。再次非常感謝各位的參與。祝各位下午愉快。再見。