PGT Innovations Inc (PGTI) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the PGT Innovations, Inc. Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Brad West, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

  • Bradley R. West - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Nicole, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to PGT Innovations' 2017 Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year Conference Call. I am Brad West, the company's CFO, and I'm joined today by Jeff Jackson, our CEO and President.

  • This morning, we are pleased to provide our 2017 fourth quarter and fiscal year results as well as an outlook for 2018. We also have posted a presentation on the quarterly results to the Investor Relations portion of our website.

  • Before we begin our formal comments, I'd like to remind you that today's remarks contain forward-looking statements that fall within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including our 2018 financial performance outlook. These remarks involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. These factors are detailed in the company's earnings press release and in the Risk Factors section of our 2016 annual report on Form 10-K. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

  • You should also note that we will report our results using non-GAAP measures, which, we believe, provide additional information for investors to help facilitate the comparison of past and present performance. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their GAAP counterparts is available in the Investor Relations section of our website.

  • Now I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Jeff Jackson. Jeff?

  • Jeffrey T. Jackson - President & CEO

  • Thank you, Brad, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us for today's call.

  • PGT Innovations delivered another solid year of growth and execution, as we finished 2017 with a strong fourth quarter. I'm incredibly proud of our team's accomplishments. We achieved impressive results, captured increased demand and grew our market share, gaining momentum each month after Hurricane Irma hit in September.

  • Irma was a massive hurricane, hitting our home state of Florida, causing damage and disruption across our entire core market. Reports we have received from homeowners and customers confirm that our industry-leading products performed as promised, protecting life and property against this powerful storm. This is a testament to our commitment for over 37 years to produce high-quality products that are tested to meet some of the most stringent standards in the nation.

  • For the full year of 2017, we delivered sales of $511 million, adjusted EBITDA of $84.1 million and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.61. This reflects sales and adjusted EBITDA growth of more than 11% and EPS growth of more than 15%.

  • Our adjusted EBITDA margin fell in line with prior year as gains from strong sales and improved operations were partially offset by a normalized incentive compensation, brand mix and increased marketing investment of over $1 million made to capture heightened awareness, post Irma.

  • Over the course of the year, our team significantly increased efficiencies at our Venice plant, and our Miami plant produced at its highest output in its history. Both of these improvements allowed us to meet the surge in demand we experienced in the fourth quarter, while maintaining our lead times and without an increase in our backlog levels.

  • As we previously announced, we began the transfer of production for our PGT-branded door glass to Cardinal in the fourth quarter. We are pleased this initiative has progressed as planned and is substantially complete, with final steps expected to be finished during the first half of 2018.

  • Another major strategic initiative is the construction of our new lease production facility in Miami. We expect to begin production in this new 330,000 square foot facility by the end of the first quarter of 2018, and are excited about the additional production space and flexibility this facility provides us.

  • During the second half of the year, we also saw a return to an inflationary environment, in which we experienced margin pressures from rising cost of aluminum, glass, fuel and wages. We were able to offset these pressures with price increases that we announced during the year. We believe our ability to raise prices, while continuing to gain share, is a testament to the competitive advantage we have built over our company's entire history.

  • Our 10-year brand equity continues to be driven by our team's relentless focus in our customers and the continuous innovation of industry-leading products, both of which have built a loyal and broad distribution base.

  • Our 2017 results demonstrate that our teams remain focused on long-term vision and strategic priorities. In 2017, we continued to improve our financial strength by delivering free cash flow of nearly $34 million. This enabled us to prepay $40 million in debt during the year, including a $20 million voluntary payment in the fourth quarter. We have consistently executed on our strategy to delever after acquisitions, as shown in our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio at the end of 2017 of 2.2x, down 35% from early 2016.

  • We ended 2017 with solid liquidity, including cash on hand of $34 million. We believe the strength of our balance sheet demonstrates our ability to make sound, strategic capital allocation decisions, provides us with flexibility to support our future operational needs and invest in future growth opportunities.

  • The fourth quarter -- in the fourth quarter, we delivered sales of $134 million, increasing more than 22% over last year. We believe the additional awareness of this benefit of impact products caused by Hurricane Irma and our related marketing investment, generating a meaningful boost in sales for the quarter. Feedback from our customers is that our advertising strategy was a success and is driving consumers into their place of business, asking specifically for PGTI products. We plan to continue our marketing efforts and expect this will continue to help drive sales growth into 2018.

  • During the quarter, we also grew our adjusted EBITDA by 41%, which resulted in adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.2% compared to prior year, 14.9%. This increase in margin reflects the operational improvements made over the past 12 months, leverage on our additional sales and a mix shift towards repair and remodeling. Sales into repair and remodeling market was 63%; and new construction 37%. These factors also drove adjusted EBITDA growth in the quarter of 80% compared to the fourth quarter of 2016.

  • In summary, we believe PGT is well positioned to capture an increased share of heightened demand from impact-resistant products in one of America's strongest markets. Our brand and product positioning remains strong, and we believe the momentum we have built sets us up for continued success in 2018.

  • I am very proud of our teams' continued execute against our strategy of profitable growth and disciplined capital allocations.

  • Now I'd like to turn the call over to Brad to discuss the financial results for the fourth quarter of 2017 in more detail and give the 2018 outlook. Brad?

  • Bradley R. West - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Jeff. We reported sales of $134.1 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of 22% compared to last year. We were able to achieve this result through our teams planning for, and response to, Irma, which enabled us to satisfy increased post-Irma demand.

  • On Slide 8, we give you a breakdown of net sales for the quarter. Our increase in overall impact sales of 25% includes increases in sales of our vinyl impact products of 38% and of our aluminum impact products of 20% compared to last year. This growth was driven by solid demand for our vinyl WinGuard products, which grew 43% versus last year. Our vinyl impact growth highlights the shift in our markets towards energy-efficient products and our ability to design attractive and innovative windows and doors to meet those needs, including our PGT vinyl WinGuard products. Since 2014, those vinyl WinGuard products have grown at an annual compound rate of 35%.

  • Now please turn to Slide 9, and I'll briefly cover a few income statement items. For the fourth quarter of 2017, our gross profit was up $11.4 million and our gross margin increased 320 basis points versus last year. Our gross margin benefited from increases due to higher volume, improved operating effectiveness and a favorable mix of sales. Gross margin in our fourth quarter was impacted by WinDoor costs related to changes in the senior management and costs associated with transitioning to new glass suppliers for WinDoor. Last year's fourth quarter included product line relocation costs related to planned manufacturing efficiency strategies and thermoplastic systems glass line start-up costs. After adjusting for these items, gross margin was 32.5% compared to 29.5% last year, an increase of 300 basis points.

  • With regards to aluminum, we have seen meaningful increases in the per-pound market cash price of aluminum since the beginning of the year, from $0.87 per pound at the start of 2017 to $1.11 per pound at the end of the year and $1.15 per pound as of today. After considering the effect of our active forward-buy programs, this had a negative impact of 70 basis points on our gross margin in the fourth quarter, though, as previously mentioned, we increased prices to cover those inflationary costs.

  • As of today, we are covered for approximately 36% of our estimated needs during the remainder of 2018, at an average delivered price of $1.03 per pound, which compares to $0.97 per pound average price in 2017. Going forward, we may increase our coverage to forward-buy contracts or other hedging products, as we see fit.

  • Selling, general and administrative expenses were $26.4 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of $5.6 million from last year. This increase was driven mainly by $2 million of additional accrued incentive compensation cost, $1 million of additional investment in advertising initiatives, $1 million of additional distribution costs due to higher sales and $400,000 of additional depreciation expense and higher capital spending in recent years. The remaining increase was due to higher costs from higher sales.

  • 2017 stock compensation expense included in SG&A was $1.9 million, and our estimate for 2018 for that same stock compensation expense is $2.5 million.

  • Interest expense in the fourth quarter was $5.3 million, slightly higher than last year. During the quarter, we made a $20 million voluntary prepayment of borrowings, which resulted in a noncash write-off of deferred lenders' fees and discount of $909,000 as additional interest expense. This charge offsets the savings generated over prior year from our debt repricing we completed in February 2017, which resulted in a 1 percentage point decrease in the margin portion of the interest rate and lower debt levels from previous repayments.

  • Depreciation and amortization was $5.2 million compared to $4.2 million last year. Consistent with our expectations, fourth quarter depreciation and amortization expense were higher due to higher depreciation and increased capital spending in recent years.

  • We recorded a tax benefit of $9.1 million in the fourth quarter. This amount includes a noncash accounting adjustment of a benefit of $12.4 million relating to the effect of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on our net deferred tax liability. Excluding this adjustment, our income tax would have been $3.4 million in the fourth quarter at an effective income tax rate of 29.8%. This compares to $1.5 million and 26.2% in the fourth quarter of last year.

  • Tax expense in the fourth quarter of 2017 has been reduced by $677,000 of excess tax benefits and was reduced by $543,000 in job credits last year in the fourth quarter. Excluding these benefits, our effective tax rate would have been 35.9% in each quarter. Because of the recently enacted Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which decreases corporate tax rate but eliminated the Section 199, manufacturers' deduction, we are expecting to have an effective tax rate for 2018 of approximately 26%.

  • We recorded net income of $20.3 million or $0.39 per diluted share for the fourth quarter of 2017 versus $4.1 million or $0.08 per diluted share in the fourth quarter 2016. After adjusting for the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, WinDoor management glass supplier transition costs and the noncash write-off of lender fees and discount through the voluntary prepayment of debt as well as some additional Irma recovery costs, adjusted net income for the quarter was $9.4 million or $0.18 per diluted share, which increased from $5.0 million and $0.10 per diluted share last year. This increase is primarily the result of sales and improved operations in the fourth quarter of 2017 versus last year.

  • Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $23.1 million or a margin of 17.2% compared to EBITDA of $16.3 million or 14.9% last year. Both adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA were affected by the same factors that benefited gross profit and gross margin, including increases due to our higher volume and improved operating effectiveness.

  • A reconciliation of our non-GAAP financial measures to the GAAP equivalents have been included in our earnings release for your reference.

  • Now please turn to Slide 10 for a discussion of balance sheet items. We ended 2017 with a cash balance of $34.0 million, which decreased $5.2 million from the end of 2016. We did use $40 million of cash during the year to voluntary prepay debt. We also invested $17.8 million in capital expenditures for the year, funded by cash from operations. Free cash flow for the year was nearly $34 million.

  • Our free cash flow in 2017 did benefit from temporary relief on estimated tax payments, given to those Florida businesses affected by Hurricane Irma. Therefore, in January 2018, we made an estimated federal income tax payment of $9 million, which actually related to 2017.

  • Our net leverage was 2.2x at the end of 2017, a decrease from our post-WinDoor acquisition net leverage of 3.4x in early 2016. We intend to continue our focus on maintaining the strong balance sheet that should give us flexibility to make further investments and fund future needs.

  • At this point, I'd like to turn the call back over to Jeff for the 2018 outlook and some closing comments. Jeff?

  • Jeffrey T. Jackson - President & CEO

  • Thanks, Brad. Looking ahead, Florida's economic factors that impact our business are in very good shape. Housing starts are growing steady but still well below what we believe the market can support. Starts in the fourth quarter and full year of 2017 both grew by 10%, with more than 85,000 single-family starts in 2017. As we've previously said, we think Florida's population can support single-family housing starts of up to 120,000 per year. Builder confidence rose in the fourth quarter, with the National Association of Builders' confidence finishing at -- the year at 74 points, a record high. We expect 2018 sales to be between $550 million and $575 million, representing an increase between 8% and 13% versus last year. We expect sales at this level will generate consolidated adjusted EBITDA between $95 million and $105 million, representing an increase between 10% and 22%.

  • Beginning in 2018, the company is updating its reporting of adjusted EBITDA to exclude noncash stock-based compensation expense. This adjusted EBITDA amount and percentages increase, given above, reflect this change. Therefore, 2018 comparison periods will also be adjusted to reflect this change.

  • We're targeting adjusted net income per diluted share in 2018 of between $0.81 and $0.98, which includes 52 million -- assumes 52 million weighted average diluted shares outstanding. We're targeting free cash flow of between $59 million and $67 million in 2018, reflecting our expectations for strong growth and capital discipline. This includes $25 million of cash proceeds to be received in 2018 from finalizing the sale of certain glass plant assets to Cardinal that we will use to further deleverage. Our free cash flow target for 2018 also includes the impact of an estimated federal income tax payment of $9 million for 2017 that we made January of 2018.

  • Before taking your questions, I want to say to the entire PGT family, our customers and our shareholders, thank you for your support. PGTI is a great place to work and we remain focused on generating value for our shareholders.

  • At this time, we'd like to turn the call over to the conference operator to begin the Q&A portion. Nicole, first question, please?

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Michael Eisen of RBC Capital Markets.

  • Michael Benjamin Eisen - Senior Associate

  • Congrats on a great quarter. Just wanted to start on the increased marketing spend. Over the past few quarters, and you guys talked about increasing the spending efforts in the coming year. You guys had a good presence at the Builders' Show earlier last month. I just wanted to know, first off, have you guys gotten any big feedback, any indicators that this marketing is paying off in increased awareness for the product? And kind of, how should we think about the trajectory of SG&A going into next year with this into effect?

  • Jeffrey T. Jackson - President & CEO

  • Yes, yes, Michael. We have gotten some very solid feedback from both our dealers and just the average customer. The both brand -- all 3 brands were highlighted in our marketing TV advertising. In the promotions, they are targeted to the specific markets that they're in. So the feedback both -- across our both customer base and the average distributor -- has been very positive. We did -- we do have some of those spends in the first quarter. Brad can highlight some of that for you. I see it developing throughout the year. Quite frankly, it depends on the storm season that we have in 2018. We will run additional advertising before the storm season just to remind everyone of our products and the benefits of having them. But overall, it's been a success. We did do, by the way, a focus group study on this particular commercial we ran, and it received the highest ratings that, that particular company had ever done in terms of focus group and feedback.

  • Bradley R. West - Senior VP & CFO

  • I'll just point on to that, Michael, on the SG&A side, obviously, those -- that show is in the first quarter and just like last year, we will have a little bit higher of an SG&A spend in the first quarter as a percent relative to the rest of the year. But we did invest $1 million in the fourth quarter on awareness of the storm. And I think we're likely to continue that, like Jeff said. So for a full year perspective, I think you should see SG&A be somewhat normal. Just be mindful, in the first quarter, it's a little bit heavier.

  • Michael Benjamin Eisen - Senior Associate

  • That's helpful. And then thinking of that increased awareness of the product and the effects of the first few big storms to hit the coast, when we're thinking of seasonality going into '18 and kind of the pace of sales throughout the year, should we expect any change in kind of historical norms? Could you see this as a stronger first half of the year than usual? How should we think about the cadence there?

  • Bradley R. West - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Last year, we had a couple of interesting anomalies that created some different comps. Obviously, the storm in the third quarter creates an easy comp for us this year in the third quarter. And in the first quarter, also, last year, started off a little bit slower. So our first quarter this year has a little bit of an easier comp. I think the second and fourth quarters -- obviously, we had a really strong fourth quarter in 2017. So those will be the tougher comps this year. Again, I think the guidance we gave is -- for the full year, kind of, plays out. But that there -- you should see Q1 and Q3 have a little bit easier comps, and Q2 and Q4 are going to be the tougher comps this year.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from Sam Darkatsh of Raymond James.

  • Joshua Wilson - Analyst

  • This is Josh filling in for Sam. Congratulations on the quarter. Clarification question, you said your backlog was unchanged, so it's -- it was $50 million as of the end of the fourth quarter?

  • Bradley R. West - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes.

  • Joshua Wilson - Analyst

  • Right. And then what gross margin are you assuming in your guidance?

  • Bradley R. West - Senior VP & CFO

  • Well again, that's going to change by the quarter, but we're probably going to improve our overall EBITDA metrics this year of -- by a good bit. The midpoint of the range is somewhere around 100 bps in total. I think you're going to see some of that in gross margin and some of that in SG&A.

  • Joshua Wilson - Analyst

  • Okay. And can you give us a sense of how January and February were trending?

  • Bradley R. West - Senior VP & CFO

  • We could talk a little -- February is obviously not closed yet. But like I said, last year, if you look at the month -- the way the months laid out from a year-over-year comparison, it was 5%, 6%, 20%, that's January, February and March. So we started off the year with pretty good growth in January. But again, it was off a relatively easy comp, and then March will be a more difficult comp. So I think for the full year, you see what the full guidance is, but the first quarter is going to be one of the stronger year-over-year growth quarters.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from Alex Rygiel of B. Riley FBR.

  • Alexander John Rygiel - Analyst

  • Very nice quarter. Couple of questions. First, could you touch a little bit upon the competitive environment in Florida? It sounds like despite the fact that you've got some raw material price inflation, you're getting some price increases out there. So I suspect the competitive environment is moderate at the moment. And then secondly, as it relates to the Miami facility, I believe you said, it's going to begin production in 1Q. Can you kind of talk about the time line of that facility, actually kind of getting up to 100% run rate, kind of, capacity? How many quarters will it take, and so on?

  • Jeffrey T. Jackson - President & CEO

  • Sure. I think in terms of the competitive environment, it's actually fairly strong. But you've got to remember, we target that middle to upper end market. And so, from that perspective, we dominate. The lower builder-grade type windows, we don't really compete in that market yet. So there's still competition, and it's more regional based. In Miami, obviously, an aluminum market, you have local players there. From a national footprint, you really don't have a ton of competitors. But that's where the vinyl competition will come into play.

  • So as we look at the competition, it really depends on what market you're talking about. So assuming high-end new home construction starts and they're higher-end homes, we're going to dominate that. If home starts are more towards the lower end, we're going to have to fight for that. And generally speaking, given our strong R&R market and our ability to get more volume out that way, we don't like to play in that area. So competition is there, it just depends on the region and the product line.

  • In terms of Miami, our plan is to move in at the end of this quarter -- is over -- the actual physical move itself will take place over about a 4-week period. We don't have to get out of the new building any time soon, so we're not pressured from that end. And as we move, we'll move sections at a time. For instance, shared service admin will be a week move, the door line will be another week, the window line, et cetera. So we'll take our time, move in over about a 3-, 4-week period.

  • And then in terms of full up and running production capacity -- I mean, our second quarter is a busy quarter for us, for CGI. So we expect to be producing. However, it will take a couple of quarters just to run through all of the nuances of being in a new facility. So I would expect minor -- again, minor headwinds from that new facility for the first, second, third quarters. By the end of the third quarter, it should be cranking and up and running with no issues at all.

  • Alexander John Rygiel - Analyst

  • And then lastly, your balance sheet is modestly underlevered. Can you talk a little bit about acquisition strategy, and how that might play into the mix in 2018?

  • Jeffrey T. Jackson - President & CEO

  • Yes, sure, and thank you for the questions. Yes. As we've looked -- we've acquired 2 companies, 1 in 2014, we deleveraged. We acquired another one in 2016, we've deleveraged. So as we look at capital allocations, we're very disciplined on that. And we look at opportunities that will be accretive to our -- both our growth strategy in terms of getting, ultimately, out of the state as well as our -- the impact that it will have on our EBITDA margins.

  • We don't -- we do not want to be a commodity-based window company. We will target high-end acquisition opportunities with strong EBITDA margins. So as we look to that strategy, I think, 2018, there's going to be some opportunities. We still are busy here in Florida, given the impact of Irma has had on our demand here. So there's plenty of robust growth in the Florida market you'll see in 2018. And again, as 2018 goes from an acquisition standpoint, we'll be looking, but we are very selective when we do look.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Jeremy Hamblin of Dougherty & Company.

  • Jeremy Scott Hamblin - VP and Senior Research Analyst of Consumer & Retail

  • Congrats on the excellent results and execution. Wanted to ask a high-level question. Kind of looking back over the last decade, I think, maybe 12 years or so since the last real hurricanes impacted Florida, and just get a sense of, I think there is, maybe, questions about how short-lived when you have an event like this with a significant storm that impacts a wide area within your predominant selling markets. In the past, could you speak a little bit to, kind of, the carry-through effect of having a storm roll through? And is it just a very short-term bump, like what you see in Q4? Or can you speak to -- is there lasting impact of -- you're going through and doing actual R&R business to repair damaged homes, and then there's kind of this halo effect of raised awareness and the increased marketing that you did to help with that? Can you just speak a little bit to that?

  • Jeffrey T. Jackson - President & CEO

  • Yes. I'll share some thoughts here, Jeremy, because really -- it's been -- it was 12 years that Florida went without a category -- significant category storm hitting the state. The last one was October 2005. Literally, 3 weeks before I started here. So we're kind of treading on some new water. It's our first major storm to hit us, the sheer demand, and we've been -- and we've also been able to capture that demand as a result of our sales -- it can be reflected there, has been strong. That demand, that awareness is still there.

  • One thing that's unique about Florida is the dynamics that make it -- for people who want to move down, our population growth and the new folks that literally come down to Florida without ever experiencing a hurricane. So there's this constant kind of renewing of the market base, if you will, for us. And given the repair and remodeling that those individuals typically do, I think is going to be a sustained growth trend for us with that awareness factor. So that's why we've decided to also invest in marketing efforts just to try to push that as well along with our brands and be more of an end consumer, kind of tip-of-the-tongue, when you think of impact product, you think of us.

  • If you really look, Florida is growing in population. You've got, what, 70-plus million baby boomers going to be retiring over the next several years. A lot of them moving into Florida. It's code driven. I think that's the one thing that's in our favor is regardless of hurricanes, we still grew. If you look at 2012 to 2017, before the hurricane, I don't have the averages. We had to grow, Brad, upper-teens. Over the last -- 20% top line growth over the last 4, 5 years before hurricane. So I think the hurricane just adds, again, that dynamic of awareness. It helps drive the R&R market stronger, and it pushes builders to do the right thing in terms of when they build new homes, and that is, to offer impact product for their consumers.

  • Jeremy Scott Hamblin - VP and Senior Research Analyst of Consumer & Retail

  • Great color. Wanted to switch gears here and talk a little bit about the aluminum pricing. You mentioned that we've seen this move higher. I think you guys just took another price increase of 3% to 7% here in -- for orders, beginning in February. As I look around the marketplace, your competitors are all raising price as well, I think, due to the demand surge. And Brad, I think you mentioned that in Q4, gross margin impact from higher aluminum cost was about 70 basis points. Can you give me a sense of: a, would you potentially raise prices again, because we've seen a lot of your competitors raise price twice in the last 6 months? And then kind of the second part of the question is, what type of lift from the price increase are you getting in terms of a benefit for gross margins versus this kind of offset? On the aluminum side, I think you mentioned you have 37% of your needs covered at this point. But you're now at $1.11 per pound on delivered costs. So can you just add a little more color to that, Brad?

  • Bradley R. West - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. And Jeremy, the price increase that we announced or that just went into effect was actually announced towards the end of last year when the price of aluminum was actually lower than it is now by, probably, $0.04 to $0.05. I -- it's actually $1.15 right now, Jeremy. And the price increase was probably announced when it was closer to $1.10. So the question is, would that potentially allow us or give us the opportunity to raise prices again, as we go towards the end of this year? It's certainly possible. Given the price of aluminum, where it's at, it has been -- it has spiked quite a bit in the last 4 weeks. And so it's very likely that you could see a price increase as we get to the middle of the year, if it sustains this way.

  • As it stands right now, part of our EBITDA range that we gave as guidance, is in part because of the uncertainty around aluminum costs. And at -- the $1.15, it's pretty high, especially compared to last year, it does affect our margins. So I would say, the original price increases that we put out was -- obviously, we -- is comfortable with its ability to stick because of the competitive environment. But I do think that it has mostly inflationary cover and not EBITDA margin growth mindsets to it. And if aluminum continues to go up from here, then we would likely, probably, have to consider another price increase.

  • Jeremy Scott Hamblin - VP and Senior Research Analyst of Consumer & Retail

  • Okay. So as I look at the full year guidance then, and let's -- let's take the $1.15 per pound, what is the drag from current aluminum cost, given your hedging program versus the price benefit? What's kind of the net impact to gross margins as it stands today?

  • Bradley R. West - Senior VP & CFO

  • At $1.15, I would say, probably 20 bps.

  • Jeremy Scott Hamblin - VP and Senior Research Analyst of Consumer & Retail

  • 20 basis point drag or benefit net?

  • Bradley R. West - Senior VP & CFO

  • Drag.

  • Jeremy Scott Hamblin - VP and Senior Research Analyst of Consumer & Retail

  • Okay.

  • Jeffrey T. Jackson - President & CEO

  • And again, Jeremy, like Brad said, we may take the unusual step of targeting aluminum price product increase, just to cover that. We're comfortable where we're at pricing wise, we're comfortable with the margins, we're comfortable with our ability to still take share and be more of a premium-priced product, given all the services we do try to offer on top of what a normal competitor would. But with that said, if aluminum prices stay where they're at, our net uncovered position, less hedges, it will be somewhat of a headwind to margins. And we could look at taking spot prices for the aluminum products only to cover that headwind.

  • Jeremy Scott Hamblin - VP and Senior Research Analyst of Consumer & Retail

  • Okay. Well you mentioned, in the presentation deck, some pretty extraordinary growth in your vinyl WinGuard line. And I know, as we look back, there has historically been a gap in the margins that you generate on that product line versus your aluminum line. How much has that gap closed now that you have a higher level of total delivered sales on the vinyl products? And in terms of thinking about the gross margins for 2018, it sounds like you're implying some improvements, and I imagine a lot of that is just the sales leverage, but is some of that because you're getting better productivity out of your vinyl lines? Any color on that would be helpful.

  • Bradley R. West - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, Jeremy, last year, we definitely saw some improvement in efficiencies and vinyl WinGuard was one of the lines that benefited from that. We targeted some labor improvements to go on top of the material cost improvements, when we launched that product. And I think, while we're always striving to do better, I think, we, kind of, got to our targeted goals last year on the labor side for that margin or for that product. So I think going forward, and this year, the margin improvement that we're seeing, is coming mainly from higher sales leverage like you mentioned, also the fact that we're going to continue to improve our efficiencies. And it's not really so much about the vinyl WinGuard, I think we've pretty much achieved that one.

  • Jeremy Scott Hamblin - VP and Senior Research Analyst of Consumer & Retail

  • Okay. Last question is on capital allocation. So you have some pretty impressive free cash flow guidance in here. You've already made some pay-downs. And it looks like you've got another $25 million coming from the closure of the sale of those door glass processing assets. In terms of thinking about capital allocation moving forward, how would -- how are you prioritizing, let's say, debt repayment versus share buybacks?

  • Jeffrey T. Jackson - President & CEO

  • Yes. I think, Jeremy, what we've demonstrated over the 12 years, I've been here, is our ability to deleverage. So in terms of priority, it would be around debt repayment versus, say, a share buyback at this point. And also, again, looking to invest in growth. So Brad had mentioned, you guys had discussed the vinyl lines, for example, technology is changing and we're investing in the technology within our plants to make them more safe, more efficient and we'll continue to do that with our capital as well as again, growth opportunities outside the state, in terms of potential acquisitions. As we've demonstrated, with our prior 2, we tend to delever after, wait, make sure we've got our "ducks in a row." And then we'll look again. And I think that's kind of the stage, if I had to say, 2018, we're in, as we're looking for that next opportunity also out of state for a potential bolt-on brand acquisition.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from Keith Hughes of SunTrust.

  • Keith Brian Hughes - MD

  • Most of my questions have been answered. But one just, industry-wide question. You talked about M&A for yourself. We saw a pretty good-sized transaction, Quality Window players announced a month or so ago. So I guess, number one, does -- do you feel like that has any impact on you? And number two, do you feel like in the window space, are we starting to see M&A activity pick up or was that kind of a one-off?

  • Jeffrey T. Jackson - President & CEO

  • Yes. I think, a couple of thoughts there, Keith. Impact on us, they did set a multiple for building products. Not necessarily windows, because I think their window business is much different than our window business. They play to the middle to lower end of the market, where we're middle to the higher end of the market. So I think, window company like ours commands a much bigger premium in terms of a multiple.

  • There -- the acquisition, again, you're referring to, however, did set some kind of multiple to be considered for acquisitions into the future. I think, as you look at what we will look at, again, like I'd mentioned earlier with Jeremy, we're going to look at something that's accretive to our margins, or can be within the first year and also, is in line with technology. PGTI innovation is what we are going to be about, bringing new products to the market, something that's not your everyday cut-and-dry window and door. So those companies tend to be out there. I think the activity is definitely heightened. I personally see more deals this year, at least coming my way or at least, from bankers to industry leads, than I did in '17. So I do think most of them were more smaller players, unlike the bigger one you're referring to. And they range in that, say, sales of $30 million to sales of $150 million type top line companies that I've seen. I think you'll continue to see that in '18, definitely.

  • Keith Brian Hughes - MD

  • So when you look at acquisitions, something that would hit your sweet spot, would it be something in that $30 million, $40 million, $50 million range? Would you be willing to do more if there was one out there?

  • Jeffrey T. Jackson - President & CEO

  • Again, if it makes sense. I do not want to change the niche strategic direction that we've set as a team to be a different high-end window and door company granted, big, over $0.5 billion in sales now, but concentrated in 1 state. So that's the drive to try to get a similar PGT-type company PGTI-type company, outside the state, similar profile. If it was bigger, more than that, the range you'd mentioned, would we look at it? Of course, yes, because those opportunities they don't come along often. So we would look at it. My #1 focus for the shareholders is shareholder return and what we do with the capital and the sheer cash flow we generate from the assets we've deployed. So the dynamics of return, all that has to add up to create more value for our shareholders before we can move forward on kind of, size -- small or large acquisition.

  • Operator

  • This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Brad West for any closing remarks.

  • Bradley R. West - Senior VP & CFO

  • Well thank you for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you next quarter, and don't hesitate to call if you have any questions. Thanks, again.

  • Operator

  • The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.