前進保險 (PGR) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to The Progressive Corporation third-quarter 2026 investor call. I will now hand the conference over to Julianna Paterra.

各位好。感謝各位加入，歡迎參加 The Progressive Corporation 2026 年第三季投資人電話會議。接下來我將把會議交給 Julianna Paterra。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's third quarter investor event. I am Julianna Paterra, Director of Investor Relations, and I will be moderator for today's event. The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's website. Although our quarterly Investor Relations events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60-minute schedule for today's event for introductory comments by our CEO and Chief Personal Lines Officer in a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team.

各位早安，感謝今天加入我們參加 Progressive 的第三季投資人活動。我是投資人關係總監 Julianna Paterra，將擔任今天活動的主持人。除公司網站已公布之 10-K 年報、10-Q 季報及致股東信所提供的內容外，公司不會就其業績發表額外的詳細評論。雖然我們的季度投資人關係活動通常會就業務的特定部分進行簡報，但今天我們將改以 60 分鐘的議程，先由執行長與個人保險線（Personal Lines）首席主管發表開場談話，接著與我們領導團隊成員進行問答。

These introductory comments were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 60 minutes scheduled for the event for live questions and answers with members of our leadership team. As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event.

這些開場談話先前已錄製完成。在播放完先前錄製的談話後，我們將利用本活動預定 60 分鐘的剩餘時間，與領導團隊成員進行即時問答。如同以往，本活動的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些陳述係基於管理層目前的預期，並受多項風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際事件與結果與今日活動中所討論者出現重大差異。

Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, as supplemented by our Form 10-Q for the third quarter of 2026, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our business, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.progressive.com.

關於上述風險與不確定性的更多資訊，請參閱我們截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 年報，以及 2026 年第三季的 10-Q 季報之補充內容；其中包含影響我們業務的風險因素、與前瞻性陳述相關的安全港聲明，以及我們所面臨挑戰的其他說明。這些文件可於我們網站 investors.progressive.com 的「投資人關係」專區查閱。

To begin today, I am pleased to introduce our CEO, Tricia Griffith, who will kick us off with some introductory comments. Tricia?

首先，我很高興介紹我們的執行長 Tricia Griffith，她將以一些開場談話為今天揭開序幕。Tricia？

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. We delivered another strong quarter with continued growth and healthy underwriting margins. These results reflect the outstanding work of our people and their continued focus on executing our strategy. For the third quarter, net premiums written grew 4% to $22.3 billion. And at quarter end, we had approximately 40.5 million policies in force.

各位早安，感謝加入我們。我們再度交出強勁的一季，持續成長且承保利潤率維持健康水準。這些成果反映了同仁們出色的工作表現，以及他們持續專注於落實我們的策略。第三季淨簽單保費（net premiums written）成長 4%，達 223 億美元。截至季末，我們的有效保單數（policies in force）約為 4,050 萬張。

While year-over-year PIF growth moderated slightly to 6% and we feel very good about that level of growth given the size of our customer base. Of course, we want units to increase. So we continue to create plans for growth in both our Personal Lines and Commercial Lines segments, and will advertise to maximize growth as long as that spend remains sufficient. Even as growth moderates, our relative performance remains strong, underscoring the resilience of our business. I'm really proud of these results and more importantly, of how we're achieving them.

雖然有效保單數（PIF）年增率略為放緩至 6%，但考量我們龐大的客戶基礎，我們對這樣的成長水準感到非常滿意。當然，我們希望保單件數持續增加。因此，我們持續在個人保險線與商業保險線（Commercial Lines）兩大事業部門制定成長計畫，並將在支出仍具足夠效益的前提下投放廣告，以最大化成長。即使成長放緩，我們的相對表現依然強勁，凸顯了我們業務的韌性。我對這些成果感到非常自豪，更重要的是，我們達成成果的方式同樣令人驕傲。

We will be diligent and focused on what we've always believed is important, growing as fast as we can while maintaining our underwriting discipline. We feel really good about where we are. Maintaining that momentum over the long term also requires us to keep evolving how we compete. Innovation has long been central to how Progressive competes. We've consistently developed and applied technology to make insurance easier to understand, buy and use.

我們將一如既往保持嚴謹與專注：在維持承保紀律的同時，盡可能快速成長。我們對目前的狀態感到非常有信心。要在長期維持這股動能，也需要我們持續演進競爭方式。創新長期以來一直是 Progressive 競爭方式的核心。我們持續開發並運用科技，讓保險更容易理解、更容易購買與使用。

And we have invested in digital experiences that help customers engage with us easily and confidently. Over many years, we have been early developers and adopters of tools such as chat bots and predictive AI to enhance pricing, underwriting, marketing, customer retention and the accuracy and efficiency of claims handling. That foundation has been an important contributor to our performance, particularly over the past decade. We are now in the next generation of technology, including generative and Agentic AI with the same long-term mindset. We believe these capabilities have the potential to influence nearly every part of our business over time, including growth, customer experience, underwriting, claims and operating efficiency.

我們也投資於數位體驗，協助客戶更輕鬆且更有信心地與我們互動。多年來，我們很早就開發並採用聊天機器人、預測式 AI 等工具，以強化定價、承保、行銷、客戶留存，以及理賠處理的準確性與效率。這樣的基礎一直是我們績效的重要貢獻者，尤其在過去十年更是如此。如今，我們以同樣的長期思維邁入下一代科技，包括生成式 AI 與代理型（Agentic）AI。我們相信，這些能力隨時間推進有潛力影響我們業務的幾乎每個面向，包括成長、客戶體驗、承保、理賠與營運效率。

Our goal is to study, learn and grow, considering opportunities across the short, medium and long term while remaining focused on measurable improvements in outcomes. To support that learning, we have made generative AI tools broadly available across the organization. We already have dozens of advanced AI initiatives in production that are delivering meaningful results with a clear line of sight to significantly more value. We also established an AI Strategy Council to evaluate the longer-term opportunities and implications of these technologies. While we do not plan to discuss specific applications that we believe are competitively sensitive, we want to be clear that this work is active, enterprise-wide and grounded in practical business outcomes.

我們的目標是研究、學習並成長，在兼顧短、中、長期機會的同時，仍聚焦於可衡量的成果改善。為了支持這些學習，我們已在全組織廣泛提供生成式 AI 工具。目前我們已有數十項進階 AI 計畫在正式環境中運行，並帶來具意義的成果，且清楚可見未來可創造更多顯著價值。我們也成立了 AI 策略委員會，以評估這些技術在更長期的機會與影響。雖然我們不打算討論我們認為具有競爭敏感性的特定應用，但我們希望清楚說明：這項工作正在積極推進、涵蓋全企業，並以務實的商業成果為依歸。

At the same time, we are mindful of the risks associated with advanced AI and are taking a disciplined and responsible approach. Consistent with our core values, our responsible AI governance and risk management program draws on talent from across the enterprise and is designed to support the responsible use of AI for our customers, claimants, consumers employees, job applicants and other constituencies while meeting our compliance obligations. AI is also considered through our enterprise risk management process. and our Board, including its technology committee oversees technology-related risks and opportunities. We believe this combination of innovation, strong governance and a focus on measurable outcomes positions us well to capture the long-term potential of AI while managing its risks thoughtfully.

同時，我們也留意先進 AI 相關的風險，並採取嚴謹且負責任的方法。秉持我們的核心價值，我們的負責任 AI 治理與風險管理計畫匯聚全企業的人才，旨在在符合合規義務的同時，支持為我們的客戶、理賠申請人、消費者、員工、求職者及其他利害關係人負責任地使用 AI。AI 也會納入我們的企業風險管理流程中加以考量。且我們的董事會（包括其科技委員會）負責監督與科技相關的風險與機會。我們相信，創新、健全治理與聚焦可衡量成果的結合，使我們能在審慎管理風險的同時，掌握 AI 的長期潛力。

Generally, when customers shop more, we win. Recent history has underscored that. In both 2024 and 2025, we captured over 40% share of shoppers while holding less than 20% in market share and took over 1 point of share in 2024 and nearly 2 points of share in 2025. And from what we can see so far year-to-date, we continue to take more than our fair share of shoppers.

一般而言，當客戶更常比價購買時，我們就更容易勝出。近期的歷史也再次印證了這點。在 2024 年與 2025 年，我們在市占率不到 20% 的情況下，攫取了超過 40% 的比價客群（shoppers）份額；並於 2024 年提升超過 1 個百分點的市占，2025 年則提升近 2 個百分點。就我們目前截至今年迄今所觀察到的情況，我們仍持續取得高於我們「應得份額」的比價客群。

Regardless of the shopping environment, we're comfortable losing new business volume when competing against rates that we believe are underpriced. Over the long term, this discipline has proven to generate market share gains for Progressive. Looking at where we stand today, we are leaning in by testing and researching Agentic technology ourselves. Customers appear to be doing the same, though at a very small scale. Over the last few weeks, we estimate we received a genic inbound interactions representing a rounding error relative to our overall volume.

不論比價環境如何，當我們面對我們認為定價偏低的費率競爭時，即使因此流失新業務量，我們也能坦然接受。長期而言，這樣的紀律已證明能為 Progressive 帶來市占率的提升。就我們目前的狀況來看，我們正積極投入，自行測試並研究代理型（Agentic）技術。客戶似乎也在做同樣的事，但規模仍非常小。在過去幾週，我們估計收到的代理型（agentic）生成式入站互動量，相對於我們整體量體而言幾乎可忽略不計（僅是四捨五入誤差）。

Activity we see today suggest much of this usage reflects experimentation rather than true shopping intent. While the usage seems limited today, we believe there is a high likelihood that agentic AI changes some aspect of consumer shopping behavior. And historically, when shopping behavior has changed, we've been at the forefront of that change.

我們目前看到的活動顯示，這些使用多半反映的是嘗試與實驗，而非真正的比價購買意圖。雖然目前使用程度看似有限，但我們認為代理型 AI 很可能會改變消費者比價購買行為的某些面向。而從歷史經驗來看，每當購物行為發生改變時，我們往往都站在變革的最前線。

Lastly, I want to take a moment to thank Pat Callahan for his hard work and dedication in both preparing and executing on our IR calls over the past decade. Your insights and study leadership have played a significant role in our success and your contributions have been deeply appreciated by everyone in this room, and I'm sure on this call. While you will certainly be missed in this setting, I'm pleased that we'll still have the opportunity to work closely together as you take on several strategic initiatives.

最後，我想花點時間感謝 Pat Callahan 在過去十年間，於籌備並執行我們投資人關係（IR）電話會議上的辛勤付出與投入。你的洞見與深思熟慮的領導，對我們的成功發揮了重要作用；在座各位以及我相信本次電話會議上的所有人，都非常感謝你的貢獻。雖然在這樣的場合我們一定會想念你，但我也很高興，當你接手數項策略性計畫時，我們仍將有機會持續密切合作。

I know you will bring the same level of commitment, creativity and excellence to those efforts, and I look forward to seeing the impact you will make. Thank you again for everything you've done, and I wish you well in your retirement from PL President and look forward to working beside you in this new capacity.

我知道你會以同樣程度的投入、創意與卓越來推動這些工作，我也期待看到你將帶來的影響。再次感謝你所做的一切；祝你自個人線（PL）總裁職務退休後一切順利，也期待在你這個新角色中與你並肩合作。

Now I'll hand it over to Lori to introduce Jim Curtis.

現在我把時間交給 Lori 來介紹 Jim Curtis。

Thanks, Tricia. I've been fortunate to work beside Pat for over a decade in various roles, and I've learned a great deal from him, I know the same is true for Jim Curtis, who has recently named our next Personal Lines President. Jim has been with Progressive for 31 years. He joined in 1995 as a customer service representative when we were roughly a $2.5 billion company. Since then, he's led a wide range of business functions, including auto pricing, product management and our Progressive Advantage Agency.

謝謝你，Tricia。我很幸運在過去十多年裡以不同職務與 Pat 並肩工作，從他身上學到很多；我知道 Jim Curtis 也是如此。Jim Curtis 最近被任命為我們下一任個人線總裁。Jim 在 Progressive 已任職 31 年。他於 1995 年加入，當時我們公司規模約為 25 億美元，職務是客服代表。此後，他領導過多項業務職能，包括汽車定價、產品管理，以及我們的 Progressive Advantage Agency。

Most recently, Jim served as our Personal Lines Controller and then our national auto leader, where he was responsible for shaping the strategy and growth of our largest product line. Over the past 5 years, Jim helped steer personal lines through the pandemic and the inflationary period that followed. He has seen this business from more angles than most progressive people. Jim brings the depth and continuity that's critical in this role, but he's also just a great example of the talent and succession strategy at Progressive. Having started his career as a call center consultant and now leading our largest business.

最近，Jim 擔任我們的個人線財務控管（Controller），之後出任全國汽車業務負責人，負責塑造我們最大產品線的策略與成長。過去 5 年，Jim 協助帶領個人線度過疫情以及隨後的通膨時期。他從比多數 Progressive 同仁更多的角度看過這項業務。Jim 具備在此職務中至關重要的深度與延續性，同時他也是 Progressive 人才與接班策略的絕佳例證。他從呼叫中心顧問起步，如今領導我們最大的業務。

And now we can open it up for questions.

現在我們可以開放提問。

This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions. (Event Instructions)

今天活動先前錄製的部分到此結束。我們的管理團隊成員現在將以線上即時方式回答問題。(活動說明)

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Josh Shanker。

Yeah, thank you for taking my question, and good morning, everybody. Everybody. If I look at the cost account growth of the company been decelerating and even declined in the direct channel during two different months of the last year. But when I look at the 10-Q and new policy applications, the gross demands are about the same and really we're talking about a decline in retention. Over the past 20 years, Progressive has made huge strides in retention.

好的，謝謝讓我提問，大家早安。各位。如果我看公司的保單數（count）成長，已經在放緩，甚至在去年有兩個不同月份於直銷通路出現下滑。但當我看 10-Q 與新保單申請時，總需求大致相同，真正談的是續保率下滑。過去 20 年，Progressive 在續保方面有很大的進步。

The first question, I guess, is do you think that this is nearly cyclicality and that retention should go up in the future as shopping behaviors subside? Or B, are we in a new market where shopping is a permanent feature of consumer behavior, and what does that mean for the amount you're paying in terms of ad spend to generate that business?

第一個問題，我想是：你們認為這幾乎只是景氣循環所致，隨著比價行為降溫，未來續保率會回升嗎？或者 B，我們是否進入一個新市場，比價成為消費者行為的永久特徵？若是如此，這對你們為了取得這些業務而支付的廣告投放（ad spend）金額意味著什麼？

Wow, Josh, that's like five questions in one, so I may have to get some help here. I'll talk a little bit about policy growth on the commercial line side. I'll have Lori talk about it on the private passenger auto side, and then Jim and I lead team on the retention piece. So one, we're extremely proud that we grew 3,000 tests this quarter, especially on the base of how large we are. So we continue to be proud of that.

哇，Josh，這像是一個問題裡面有五個問題，所以我可能需要一些協助。我先談一下商業線這邊的保單成長。我會請 Lori 談私人乘用車（private passenger auto）這邊，然後 Jim 和我一起帶大家談續保（retention）的部分。第一，我們非常自豪本季保單增加了 3,000（tests），尤其以我們目前的規模來看。所以我們仍然為此感到驕傲。

One piece of data that gets to your question on, do you think the shopping will continue, which of course, we don't know is there's a demand meter that Lexus Nexus puts out. And the quarter two results would say that 47% of policies were shopped in the trailing 12-month period. which seems pretty high. In addition, we have our own data that says over we've been quoted over 50 million times on the auto loan. That seems like a lot of shopping.

有一項數據可以回應你關於「比價是否會持續」的問題；當然我們也不確定。LexisNexis 有發布一個需求指標（demand meter）。第二季結果顯示，在過去 12 個月期間，有 47% 的保單曾被拿去比價。這看起來相當高。此外，我們自己的數據顯示，我們在汽車保險上被報價超過 5,000 萬次。這似乎代表大量的比價行為。

So I think shopping has really increased based on affordability across, not just insurance, but fuel prices, grocery prices, et cetera. So I do think shopping has been at an all-time high, and we're seeing it kind of level out, albeit really high. So our focus will continue to be to grow. When you think about retention, and you go back to sort of after COVID at all the volatile years, the retention has gone up and down really depending on mix on shopping, it's just a timing thing. Not that we don't care deeply about retention.

所以我認為，比價確實因為可負擔性問題而大幅增加，不只是保險，還包括油價、雜貨價格等等。因此我確實認為比價已達到歷史高點，而我們看到它開始趨於持平，但仍然非常高。所以我們的重點仍會是持續成長。談到續保，如果回顧 COVID 之後那些高度波動的年份，續保率確實會上下起伏，主要取決於比價帶來的業務組合變化；這更多是時間點的問題。並不是說我們不非常重視續保。

But if you look at our post-COVID period, in that time, that was so volatile up and down with inflation and then us getting rate, giving rate, and we added more than 12.5 million PIPs doubled our premium by 38 -- added $38 billion, and that translated to 5 points of market share. So in these volatile times, that's really where we prevail. Again, we are still pushing the envelope on growth and balancing growth and profitability. So Lori, why don't you give a little bit about the policy growth on the private passenger auto side? And then, Jim, why don't you add in some on retention?

但如果你看我們在 COVID 之後的期間，那段時間因通膨以及我們調升費率、下調費率而大幅波動；我們新增了超過 1,250 萬件 PIP，保費規模翻倍、增加了 380 億美元，並轉化為 5 個百分點的市占率。所以在這種波動時期，正是我們勝出的時候。再次強調，我們仍在推動成長，同時在成長與獲利之間取得平衡。所以 Lori，你要不要先談談私人乘用車這邊的保單成長？然後 Jim，你再補充一些續保的看法？

Sure. Josh, as your question implies, September was a softer month. The month-over-month decline in auto PIF was driven primarily by new direct applications, which follows historical seasonality that includes a decline in the second half of the year. I would say these month-to-month variances, they start to be more pronounced now that our growth rate is down from the historical highs that we've experienced over the last few years. But overall, competition is intense in both channels.

好的。Josh，正如你的問題所暗示，9 月是相對疲弱的一個月。汽車保單在保件數（PIF）的月對月下滑，主要是由直銷新申請量所驅動；這符合歷史季節性，也就是下半年通常會下滑。我會說，當我們的成長率從過去幾年的歷史高點回落後，這些月對月的波動會變得更明顯。但整體而言，兩個通路的競爭都很激烈。

Carriers are trading margin for growth with rate reductions, increased advertising, higher agent commissions and in direct, we're spending more, too. And so competition is driving up acquisition costs, but we're going to stay disciplined and only acquire customers within our targets. In the agency channel, specifically, we're benefiting from some of the investments that we've made in agent compensation and incentives. We're benefiting also from new relationships with independent agents and agency networks. And then there's the continual shift of business from captive to independent agency channel that's benefiting us as well.

各家保險公司正以降費率、增加廣告投放、提高代理人佣金等方式，用利潤率換取成長；在直銷通路，我們也增加了支出。因此競爭推升了獲客成本，但我們會保持紀律，只在符合我們目標的範圍內取得客戶。在代理通路方面，特別是，我們正受益於先前在代理人薪酬與激勵上的投資。我們也受益於與獨立代理人及代理網路建立的新合作關係。此外，業務持續從專屬代理（captive）轉向獨立代理通路，這也同樣讓我們受益。

Conversion is up from a year ago, which is being led by direct. And so it tells us we remain competitive when shoppers come to us. Tricia put our growth into perspective, I think it's worth noting that the last industry reporting, which is for the second quarter, it reflects our growth of almost $800 million in premiums over the prior year, while our nine largest competitors lost $1.1 billion between them. So despite the competitive environment, we continue to outperform the industry. But I would make no mistake about it. We're very focused on growth right now in both channels and with all of our products.

轉換率（conversion）較去年同期上升，主要由直銷帶動。這告訴我們，當比價客戶來到我們這裡時，我們仍具競爭力。Tricia 已把我們的成長放在更大的脈絡中，我認為值得一提的是：最新一期的產業報告（第二季）顯示，我們的保費較去年增加近 8 億美元，而我們九家最大競爭對手合計則減少 11 億美元。所以即便競爭環境激烈，我們仍持續跑贏產業。但也不要誤會。我們目前非常專注於兩個通路以及所有產品的成長。

Thanks, Lori. And as it relates to just general retention, I'd point out that our current PLE comparison is to a period of unprecedented volatility, which drives changes in both mix and market condition. We believe our current level of POE is simply reverting to a more normalized level. And in that regard, we look at our new business conversion as a primary means to understand our competitiveness. And it's worth noting that, that remains elevated across a comparison to recent years.

謝謝你，Lori。至於一般性的續保，我想指出，我們目前的 PLE 比較基期是一段前所未有的高度波動時期，這會同時驅動業務組合與市場狀況的變化。我們認為目前的 POE 水準只是回歸到較正常的水準。在這方面，我們把新業務轉換率視為理解我們競爭力的主要方式。值得注意的是，與近年相比，該指標仍維持在較高水準。

As it relates to current retention efforts, we certainly have a playbook and tactics in play that help our customers maintain competitive rates on their policies and lest they would leave you with, aside from our POE performance. We also just gauge renewal acceptance. And in any given month, we have data that would show that roughly 90% or greater of customers will accept their renewable offer.

就目前的留存（續保）工作而言，我們確實有一套作戰手冊與正在執行的策略，協助客戶在保單上維持具競爭力的費率，避免他們流失；此外，除了我們的 POE 表現之外。我們也會衡量續保接受率。在任何一個月份，我們的數據都顯示，大約有 90% 或更高比例的客戶會接受其續保報價。

I think I blew through commercial lines. I got excited to talk about private passenger. But Commercial Lines are really contributing significantly on the growth in premium for sure, 9% net premium written growth, 5% PIF growth and new business applications are up 11% and retention looks good on both the trailing 3 and trailing 12. So we're excited about where we're at and commercial we've taken a couple rate decreases in very specific segments where we had the margin to do so in the states to do so, and we feel very bullish about our growth opportunities on the commercial line side.

我想我剛剛把商業險的部分講得太快了。我太興奮想談私人乘用車險。但商業險確實對保費成長有顯著貢獻：淨簽單保費成長 9%、在保保單（PIF）成長 5%，新業務申請量成長 11%，而留存表現不論是近 3 個月或近 12 個月的滾動指標看起來都不錯。所以我們對目前的進展感到振奮；在商業險方面，我們也在非常特定的細分領域做了幾次降費率，因為在那些州、那些區隔我們有足夠的利潤空間可以這麼做；我們對商業險端的成長機會也非常看好。

Well, thank you. I will let other people ask questions. Appreciate all the answers.

好的，謝謝。我把時間留給其他人提問。感謝你們所有的回答。

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

Bob Huang，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning. So just given the higher interest rate and investment yield, as you're thinking about rate filings, would regulators push back on any rate increases as ROE naturally drift higher due to higher interest rate environment, do you need to resubmit any rate filing due to the fact that investment yield is changing?

嗨，早安。在利率較高、投資收益率上升的情況下，當你們思考費率申報時，監管機關是否會因為在高利率環境下 ROE 自然走高，而對任何費率調升提出反對？另外，因投資收益率正在變動，你們是否需要重新提交任何費率申報？

No, those two typically are bifurcated. That's very much on our investment side and regulators look to make sure that rates are adequate not excessive and actuarially justified.

不會，這兩者通常是分開處理的。那主要屬於我們的投資端，而監管機關會關注的是費率是否足夠、是否不過度，以及是否有精算依據。

Okay. Really appreciate that. And then just given that the Agentic environment has obviously been slowly introduced into the distribution system. Do you see at agentic AI or any type of like automated shopping capabilities potentially change the lead gen world? Or would that be something that impacts progresses?

了解。非常感謝。接著，鑑於 Agentic（代理式）環境顯然已逐步導入到通路體系中。你們是否認為代理式 AI 或任何類似自動化比價／購物的能力，可能改變線索生成（lead gen）的生態？或者這會對 Progressives 造成影響嗎？

Yeah. I'll let Lori take a deeper dive on that. But here's how I would start that, Bob. I would say that we've had a strategic pillar, we've had four, but one specific one for a long time. and that is broad coverage. So we're going to be wearing and how customers want to shop and be serviced for their insurance. So years ago, we started in the independent agent channel. And no one thought anyone would buy insurance over the Internet. We saw that coming in '95. We were out there selling auto on the Internet.

是的。我先請 Lori 更深入說明。但我會先這樣開頭，Bob：我們長期以來有一個策略支柱——我們總共有四個——其中一個很明確的支柱就是「廣泛覆蓋」。也就是說，我們會跟上客戶想要如何購買與如何獲得保險服務的方式。所以我們會隨著客戶想要如何購物與被服務而調整。多年前，我們從獨立代理人通路起家。當時沒有人認為有人會在網路上買保險。我們在 1995 年就看到了這個趨勢。我們當時就在網路上銷售汽車保險。

And then we've continued to evolve, whether it's our AutoQuote Explorer, BusinessQuote Explorer, HomeQuote Explorer. we feel the same way about agentic, and we're doing a lot of testing internally as well, but we see the same way. If that how consumers want to shop, we will be there for them, and we will be there to make sure that they get what they need in the right way, the right coverage, et cetera. Lori, do you want to talk a little bit about what you're seeing since CRM follows under your purview?

之後我們也持續演進，不論是 AutoQuote Explorer、BusinessQuote Explorer，或 HomeQuote Explorer。對於代理式（agentic）我們也有同樣看法，我們內部也做了大量測試，但我們的觀點一致。如果那是消費者想要的購物方式，我們就會在那裡；我們也會確保他們能以正確的方式取得所需內容、正確的保障等。Lori，你要不要談談你在 CRM（客戶關係管理）這塊職掌下所看到的情況？

Sure. Yeah. I mean historically, when shopping increases, progressive gains market share in agentic shopping, as Tricia said, we believe creates the potential for elevated and sustained levels of shopping. And so that's why we see this as an opportunity. Tricia mentioned in her opening comments that the level of shopping that we're seeing today is really a fraction of our direct quote volume. But it's still very early.

當然。是的。我的意思是，歷史上當比價／購物行為增加時，Progressive 在代理通路的比價中會提升市占；如 Tricia 所說，我們認為這會帶來比價水準提高且更持久的可能性。因此我們把這視為一個機會。Tricia 在開場時提到，我們今天看到的比價量其實只是我們直銷報價量的一小部分。但目前仍非常早期。

We're monitoring closely, and we're preparing, assuming mitogenic shopping has the potential to become an important acquisition channel for us. So we look at a number of factors when we analyze shopping behavior. And if or when is more likely customer behavior changes, our intent is going to remain to make progressive easy to find, easy to quote and easy to buy.

我們正密切監控，並且在做準備，假設「代理式購物」有可能成為我們重要的獲客通路。因此在分析購物行為時，我們會看很多因素。如果或當客戶行為更可能發生改變時，我們的目標仍會是：讓 Progressive 容易被找到、容易取得報價、也容易完成購買。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

Gregory Peters，Raymond James。

Good morning. So I'll just ask one question or two parts. And I was looking at the letter, and you talked about the non-acquisition expense ratio improving. And then in your previous answer, you mentioned how commission there might be some upward pressure on commissions. So I was wondering if you could just comment on those two variables, give some more color.

早安。我問一個問題、分兩個部分。我在看股東信時，你們提到非獲客費用率（non-acquisition expense ratio）有所改善。但在你們前一個回答中，又提到佣金可能會有一些上行壓力。所以我想請你們評論一下這兩個變數，能否提供更多說明。

Yeah. So we consider commission and acquisition expense. So the non-acquisition expense are all other expenses. And those are just us getting more efficient, making sure as we roll out new technologies to get more efficient. We look at a bunch of different internal data on that. As an example, our PIFs per FTE per full-time equivalent are up over 10%.

好的。我們把佣金視為獲客費用（acquisition expense）的一部分。因此，非獲客費用就是其他所有費用。那部分主要反映我們效率提升：確保在推出新技術時能更有效率。我們會看很多不同的內部數據。例如，我們每位全職員工（FTE）對應的在保保單數（PIFs per FTE）提升了超過 10%。

So we're excited about the efficiencies we're gaining as we see more technology solutions, more process solutions. So our non-acquisition expense ratio. We'll always focus on. In fact, we've reduced that 0.5 point a year over the last 15 years, and we'll continue to put pressure on that because we know that equates to giving more competitive rates in the system. On the overall expense ratio, we will spend efficiently both on the direct side and the agent side to spur on growth. And that's where we'll give commissions for business that we think is important as an example, bundled auto home, et cetera, and that's really where that comes from.

所以我們對於在更多技術解決方案、更多流程解決方案帶來的效率提升感到振奮。因此，我們的非獲客費用率會一直是我們的重點。事實上，過去 15 年我們每年大約降低 0.5 個百分點，我們也會持續施壓，因為我們知道這等同於能在市場體系中提供更具競爭力的費率。至於整體費用率，我們會在直銷端與代理端都以有效率的方式投入，以推動成長。而佣金就是在我們認為重要的業務上提供，例如汽車＋住宅的綑綁（bundled auto home）等，這就是其來源。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

Elyse Greenspan，富國銀行。

My first question, I wanted to go back to just what you were talking about with September, right, and new business indirect, right, trending negatively. And I think you guys mentioned that there was some seasonality in the back half of the year. So how do we think about, I guess, the remaining quarters of the Q3 and into the Q4 as you think about I'm sorry, the remaining months of the Q3 and then into the Q4, as you think about just the level of new business in direct and how that could triangulate into PIF on the personal auto side. And I'm not sure if you can give us a sense of how things have trended in October?

我的第一個問題想回到你們剛剛談到 9 月的部分：新業務（直銷）呈現負向趨勢。我記得你們提到下半年有一些季節性因素。那麼，當你們思考 Q3 剩餘期間以及進入 Q4 時——抱歉，我是指 Q3 剩餘月份以及進入 Q4——我們該如何看待直銷新業務的水準，以及它如何反映到個人車險端的在保保單（PIF）？另外，不確定你們能否提供 10 月的趨勢概況？

Yeah. I can't give you anything that we haven't published. Well, obviously, and Lori said, this will continue to push for growth and we'll spend while it's efficient. So there is some seasonality to growth, which sometimes people find unusual, but there's some seasonality. I will say that we've seen a lot of the direct competitors sort of get off the bench and start to be in the auction environment, which makes acquisition costs a little bit more competitive.

是的。我無法提供任何我們尚未公開發布的資訊。不過很明顯地，如 Lori 所說，我們會持續推動成長，並在有效率時投入支出。所以成長確實存在一些季節性，有時候大家會覺得不太尋常，但確實有季節性。我會說，我們看到許多直銷競爭對手開始從觀望轉為積極，進入競價（auction）環境，這使得獲客成本的競爭更激烈一些。

Now we'll continue to push again as long as it's competitive. We have seen some competitors spend beyond what we would think we would spend for those policies. And so we're not, we're okay to lose in that for those policies because we're not going to buy business if we don't think it's economically prudent. So I don't know how it will all turn out. Obviously, I have an idea of October. But we're going to keep pushing the envelope, be efficient and treat our customers the way they've come to expect.

我們會在具競爭力的前提下持續推進。我們也看到有些競爭對手的投入超過我們認為願意為那些保單支付的水準。因此對於那些保單，我們可以接受在競價中輸掉，因為如果我們認為在經濟上不審慎，我們不會去買進業務。所以我不確定最後會如何發展。當然，我對 10 月的情況有一些概念。但我們會持續突破界限、保持效率，並以客戶一直以來所期待的方式對待他們。

And then I guess my follow-up, right, is on the advertising side because obviously, right, we've seen advertising right continues to be up on a year-over-year basis. As you guys think about just the fourth quarter, and you made comments right, on this call and just in the queue, right, about continuing to spend as long as it's efficient. So how do you -- do you think we'll continue to see elevated ad spend through the fourth quarter and then into 2027 based on just your views of the current -- the overall current environment?

接著我想追問的是廣告端，因為很明顯，我們看到廣告支出仍然以年增的基礎在上升。當你們思考第四季時，你們在這通電話以及剛才的問答中也提到，只要效率仍然良好就會持續投入。所以你們怎麼看——基於你們對目前整體環境的看法，你們認為第四季廣告支出會維持在較高水準，並延續到 2027 年嗎？

I think we'll just have to see how that plays out in terms of our efficiency. We keep a very close tab on our cost per sale versus our targeted acquisition cost. And we always want to write to 96 lifetime. So that's how we look at it. So if we believe we can get growth and we believe it's efficient, we'll spend, if not, we'll pull back a little bit.

我想我們得看效率表現最後會怎麼發展。我們會非常密切地追蹤每筆銷售成本（cost per sale）相對於我們目標獲客成本（targeted acquisition cost）的情況。而且我們一向希望以 96 的終身價值（lifetime）為準來衡量。所以我們是這樣看待的。如果我們相信能帶來成長、而且效率也好，我們就會投入；如果不是，我們就會稍微收斂一些。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Mike Zaremski。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Could you -- switching to the auto insurance loss cost environment. Maybe you can kind of give us any updates on what you're thinking and seeing on the severity side of the equation, we're seeing and I think your disclosure includes reserve movements, which have been great. But is anything changing on bodily injury or personal entry protection. We've seen some of the numbers move around in the Qs.

嗨，謝謝。早安。能否——切換到汽車保險的損失成本環境。也許你們可以更新一下你們對「損失嚴重度（severity）」這一端的想法與觀察；我們看到、而且我想你們的揭露也包含準備金（reserve）變動，表現很不錯。但在人身傷害（bodily injury）或個人傷害保護（personal injury protection）方面，有沒有任何變化？我們看到一些數字在不同季度之間有所波動。

Yeah. Our severity is incurred. So it does include reserving. It's been fairly benign, right around 4%. I would say, and it's been sort of the same culprits as we've seen in the past in terms of medical cost, more attorney rep claims, I will say we did see an increase in severity on the PIP side. And that has been in the majority, New York and then somewhat New Jersey based on the fact that they had very low PIP severity in Q3 '25. I'll let Andrew give a little bit more detail on that.

有的。我們的嚴重度是以「已發生（incurred）」口徑計算。所以它確實包含準備金提列。整體相當溫和，大約在 4% 左右。我會說，驅動因素大致還是過去那些：醫療成本、更多由律師代理的理賠案件等。我也要說，我們確實看到 PIP 端的嚴重度上升。這主要發生在紐約，另外新澤西也有一些，原因是他們在 2025 年第三季的 PIP 嚴重度非常低。我讓 Andrew 再補充一些細節。

Got it. On the severity side, as Tricia said, overall, we feel as though the environment is benign. Our BI severity was a bit lower in the past quarter versus year-to-date. And there are some things that impact that we report incurred severity, not paid severity like some of our competitors. And so that does include actuarial adjustments, closure rates, things like that.

了解。在嚴重度方面，如 Tricia 所說，整體而言我們覺得環境是溫和的。我們的 BI 嚴重度在上一季相較於年初至今略低一些。另外有些因素會影響，因為我們揭露的是已發生嚴重度（incurred severity），而不是像部分同業揭露的已支付嚴重度（paid severity）。因此其中會包含精算調整、結案率（closure rates）等因素。

But within severity injuries, definitely what we're paying attention to, we look at the year-to-date number for BI, which is more like 6% severity trend is a good indication of where things are going. Tip did stick out this quarter. When I think about PIC, I do think about the fact that it's different by state. And so that -- there's a mix between states that's impacting the severity trend in the quarter. But the Northeast is a place where we do see some higher severity trends we called out New York in our 10-Q.

但在傷害嚴重度的內部觀察上，我們確實會特別關注；我們看 BI 的年初至今數字，大約是 6% 的嚴重度趨勢，這能更好地反映走向。PIP 在本季確實比較突出。談到 PIP，我會想到它在各州之間差異很大。因此，季度的嚴重度趨勢會受到州別組合（mix）影響。但東北部是我們看到較高嚴重度趨勢的區域；我們在 10-Q 中也點名了紐約。

Florida is a place, though, where we've seen the trends be more benign. And so it's a bit of a mixed bag on the PIP side. It depends on the speed, and there's definitely some state mix contributions that are there. Overall, though, on severity, we feel pretty good. We're watching the injury side, in particular.

不過佛羅里達則是我們看到趨勢相對溫和的地方。所以在 PIP 端有點像是好壞參半。這取決於變化速度，而且確實存在一些州別組合的貢獻。但整體而言，在嚴重度方面我們感覺相當不錯。我們會持續特別關注傷害端。

Great. And my follow-up, switching gears to personal property Home Insurance. You did a good job on the last call. explain to us how you're opening up your appetite. You talked about the new sales environment in the shareholder letter. Curious about the competitive environment there.

很好。我的追問，換個話題到個人財產的住宅保險（Home Insurance）。你們在上一通電話中做得很好，向我們解釋你們如何放寬承保偏好（appetite）。你們也在股東信中談到新的銷售環境。我想了解那邊的競爭環境如何。

Do you feel that you could grow meaningfully more in home and it can move the needle on auto as well given the bundled nature? Or is it a very competitive environment that -- so we should be kind of careful about about accelerating the growth rate from here? Thanks.

你們覺得住宅險能否更有意義地成長，並且因為綑綁銷售（bundled）的特性，也能對車險帶來推動、進而產生顯著影響？還是那是一個競爭非常激烈的環境——因此我們應該對從這裡開始加速成長率保持謹慎？謝謝。

Yes. I'll open it up and then pass it over to Jim to give more details. But we're excited about laying out what John and Lori did last quarter. And in fact, Pat, Lori, Jim and I had the privilege of meeting with some of our platinum our top agents that sell auto home last week, had an event and had a lot of conversations, and they're getting very excited that we're more open for business, and they want to do those bundles. So I think the opportunity is one of our largest opportunities over the next couple of years.

是的。我先開個頭，然後再請 Jim 提供更多細節。不過我們很期待延續 John 和 Lori 上季所做的布局。事實上，上週 Pat、Lori、Jim 和我有幸與一些白金級、也就是我們最頂尖、同時銷售車險與住宅險的代理人見面；我們辦了一場活動並進行了很多交流，他們對我們更「開門做生意」感到非常興奮，也很想推動這些綑綁方案。所以我認為，這會是我們未來幾年最大的機會之一。

I'm excited about it. We're in such a different position investing in people, processes, I wrote in my letter about our new claims training center out in Phoenix. We're super excited about having hands-on information and training for people that do the property claims. So we're very excited about where we're at. We're on target with our plan. We just want to make sure that we open it up and we don't swing the pendulum, and do you want to talk any more about it, Jim?

我也很興奮。我們現在的位置完全不同了——我們在人才與流程上持續投資；我在信中也提到我們在鳳凰城新設的理賠訓練中心。我們對於能提供第一手、實作型的資訊與訓練給處理財產險理賠的人員感到非常振奮。所以我們對目前的進展非常期待。我們也按計畫推進。我們只是想確保在放寬的同時不要把鐘擺甩過頭；Jim，你還想再多談一些嗎？

Yeah, sure. I would just reinforce that Robinsons continued to be a huge opportunity of growth for us. We would estimate that, that segment alone is roughly 40% of the auto and home market and while it's probably a little too early to evaluate our efforts following on our progress in property, we're pleased with the results, we mentioned in the Q that our homeowner volume -- new business volume was up 22%, and it really just reflects or increased availability and broadening acceptability.

好的，當然。我想再強調一次，Robinsons 對我們而言仍然是非常巨大的成長機會。我們估計，光是這個細分市場大約就占車險與住宅險市場的 40%；雖然現在評估我們在財產險進展後所帶來的成效可能還稍早，但我們對結果感到滿意。我們在本季也提到，住宅險保單量——新業務量年增 22%，這其實反映了我們可承作範圍的提升，以及核保可接受度的擴大。

And we're starting to see signs of that within our agency business on increased demand or increased quoting in Robinsons we start to see an increased demand, you'll see a natural downward pressure on conversion. But certainly within what we would talk about as our expected response, and we continue to be bullish on the opportunity we have in both channels in Robinsons growth.

而且我們開始在代理通路中看到一些跡象：在 Robinsons 的需求增加、或報價（quoting）增加。當你開始看到需求上升時，轉換率（conversion）自然會有下行壓力；但目前仍然在我們所預期的反應範圍內。我們也持續看好在 Robinsons 這個成長機會上，兩個通路都很有潛力。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

Andrew Andersen，Jefferies。

Hey. Good morning. And maybe following up on that last answer there. The agency auto Robinson quote volume seems relatively strong, but conversion and PIF are a bit later there. Could you talk about where customers are falling out of the funnel and how much of that is reflects the total household proposition versus maybe just the competitiveness of the auto quote itself?

嗨，早安。也許延續剛才那個回答。代理通路的汽車險 Robinson 報價量看起來相對強勁，但轉換率和 PIF（有效保單數）在那邊有點落後。你能談談客戶是在漏斗的哪個環節流失？以及其中有多少反映的是「整體家庭（total household）」方案的主張，相對於可能只是汽車險報價本身的競爭力？

I think it's a lot, and Jim weigh in or actually any of you weigh in. I think a lot of it is sometimes timing of the auto and property quote. And when we get those. So we have a program that we're working with on agents to make sure that if they have the auto now, and they haven't had the property, we think those up. So I think sometimes it's a tiny thing.

我想原因很多，Jim 也可以補充——其實你們任何一位都可以補充。我認為很大一部分有時候是車險與財產險報價的時點問題。以及我們何時拿到那些資料。所以我們正在和代理人合作推動一個計畫，確保如果他們現在先拿到車險、但還沒拿到財產險，我們會把那些補齊。所以我覺得有時候就是一些很小的因素。

Sometimes it's a discount where some companies I have a deeper discount, sometimes we will. So I think it's really timing. I think the overall point that Jim made was this is such an opportunity for us. And we will make sure that we are competitive while reaching our target profit margins. And we owe it to our customers, we go that to our agent partners. And that's really been our approach for this really exceptional opportunity that is in front of us. Thank you.

有時候這是一種折扣，某些公司我會給更深的折扣，有時候我們也會。所以我認為這真的取決於時機。我想 Jim 提到的整體重點是，這對我們來說是一個難得的機會。而我們會確保在達成目標利潤率的同時，保持具競爭力。我們對客戶有這份責任，也對我們的代理合作夥伴有這份責任。而這一直是我們面對眼前這個非常特殊機會時所採取的方法。謝謝。

Thanks. And when you talk about the non-acquisition expense productivity gains. How do you view the permanent productivity gains versus maybe temporary leverage from prior year's pricing and premium growth. I guess how sensitive do you find that non-acquisition expense ratio relative to NPE growth?

謝謝。當你談到非收購費用的生產力提升時，你如何看待永久性的生產力提升，相較於可能來自前一年定價與保費成長所帶來的暫時性槓桿？我想問的是，你覺得非收購費用率相對於 NPE 成長的敏感度如何？

I mean I think it's sensitive ratio because I think over time, we've gone up and down, and we try to look at it, obviously, on a percentage basis, but we look at an absolute basis as well in terms of how we spend our money, does it are we getting what we want. We are surgical about every technology project, every process project to make sure that it makes us more efficient if that's the reason we're doing it. And we have a three-year goal that we create every three years. We're a year or two into it that we present to the Board on how we can continue to reduce expenses because, again, we want to have our prices competitive.

我的意思是，我認為這是一個敏感的比率，因為我覺得隨著時間推移，我們確實有上上下下；我們當然會用百分比的角度來看，但也會用絕對金額的角度來看——就我們如何花錢而言，我們是否得到我們想要的結果。我們對每一個科技專案、每一個流程專案都非常精準審視，確保如果我們做它的原因是為了提升效率，那它就真的能讓我們更有效率。而且我們每三年會制定一個三年目標。我們現在大概進行到其中的一到兩年，並向董事會報告我們如何能持續降低費用，因為再說一次，我們希望讓價格具競爭力。

I'd just add in, Andrew, that the month-to-month, the AER, the non-acquisition expense ratio, it can be somewhat volatile. But over the years, it has moved pretty steadily. And so the actions we're taking, we feel good that they're translating into lower cost that we can deliver to our customers, which means that we can have lower prices and gain more market share over time. So I don't view these as a blip. I think we're on the right trajectory for long-term lower cost structure for the business.

Andrew，我再補充一下：按月來看，AER，也就是非收購費用率，可能會有些波動。但多年來，它其實相當穩定地在移動。因此，我們正在採取的行動，我們覺得很不錯，因為它們正在轉化為更低的成本，而我們可以把這些成本優勢交付給客戶，這意味著我們可以有更低的價格，並隨著時間推移取得更多市占。所以我不把這些視為短暫的波動。我認為我們正走在正確的軌道上，朝向長期更低的業務成本結構。

Yeah, Andrew, I would add the reason that we should have confidence is because both in claims and in our CRM organization we're investing in technology that helps our customers self-serve easier, and we're seeing some pretty deep increases with customers' willingness to both shop service and start their claims process themselves and using the technology that we're investing in. So there's real reason to believe that, that's sustainable.

是的，Andrew，我會補充我們之所以應該有信心，是因為無論在理賠端或在我們的 CRM 組織，我們都在投資能讓客戶更容易自助服務的科技；而我們也看到客戶願意自行比價、自行辦理服務，以及自行啟動理賠流程的意願都有相當顯著的提升，並且在使用我們所投資的技術。所以確實有充分理由相信，這是可持續的。

Tracy Benguigui, Wolfe Research.

Tracy Benguigui，Wolfe Research。

Thank you. No policyholder credit expense was booked in September versus last year. Does that signal no Florida excess profit return in 2027? Or is that simply a change in your cadence of making these estimates -- and relatedly, I'm just wondering how much of that $1.3 billion of year-to-date auto favorable reserve releases came from Florida.

謝謝。9 月沒有像去年一樣入帳保戶信用（policyholder credit）費用。這是否意味著 2027 年不會有佛州超額利潤返還？或者這只是你們在估計這些項目的節奏上有所改變——另外我也想問一下，截至目前為止那 13 億美元的汽車險有利準備金釋放（favorable reserve releases）中，有多少來自佛州？

Yeah. So the reserve development, some came from Florida, but is diminished towards the last part of the year or the second part of the year. And we feel like we're in a good position in Florida from nexus or lack thereof perspective for 2027. But I think the development was kind of across the board and in many different areas.

是的。就準備金發展（reserve development）而言，有一部分來自佛州，但在今年後段或下半年貢獻有所減少。而且就 2027 年的 nexus（連結）或缺乏 nexus 的角度來看，我們覺得在佛州的狀況處於良好位置。但我認為這次的發展其實是全面性的，涵蓋許多不同領域。

Yeah. I'd just add in on the reserve side, personal auto BI has been a driver of our favorable reserve development. That's across the country. Florida has a contribution, but in general, it's been more BI across the country. And on the Florida credit side, we have not changed our approach there.

我再補充一下準備金方面：個人車險的 BI（人身傷害責任）一直是我們有利準備金發展的驅動因素。這是全國性的。佛州有貢獻，但整體而言，更多是全國各地的 BI。至於佛州信用（credit）那一塊，我們並沒有改變我們的做法。

We evaluate that position every month. We do not believe that an accrual is necessary at this point. And so we'll monitor with each month but we currently don't believe it's probable that will need credits or refunds for Florida. And I think we've done a great job adjusting to the Florida environment. We've been able to lower rates for customers and continue to grow that business.

我們每個月都會評估那個立場。目前我們不認為需要提列應計（accrual）。因此我們會逐月監控，但目前我們不認為在佛州需要提供信用或退款是「很可能」會發生的。而且我認為我們在適應佛州環境方面做得非常好。我們已能為客戶降低費率，同時持續成長那項業務。

And so we feel good about our Florida position.

所以我們對佛州的狀況感到很有信心。

Excellent. And also about 63% of your year-to-date releases came from the '25 accident year. I'm wondering how that plays into your 2026 loss pick?

很好。另外，截至目前你們約 63% 的釋放來自於 2025 事故年度（accident year）。我想知道這會如何影響你們對 2026 年的損失選取（loss pick）？

Jim, do you want to talk about that?

Jim，你要談一下這個嗎？

Yeah. What was the -- I missed the last part of the question?

好。問題的——我漏聽了最後一部分？

Yes. How does the 63% came from prior -- the prior two years, '25 and '24. How does it go into our loss picks for '27?

是的。63% 來自前——前兩年，2025 和 2024。這如何納入我們對 2027 年的損失選取（loss picks）？

Yeah. On the loss picks, I would just share that for starters, we evaluate our rate adequacy or loss picks for 2027 at the state level and do so on an accident year basis. In many of the states, we enjoy the benefit of scale scale and the ability to look back on shorter durations to set rates. So we would capture the reserve adequacy and the accident period for which it's realized and then evaluate with typical actuarial approach on rate adequacy.

好的。關於損失選取，我先分享：首先，我們是在州別層級評估 2027 年的費率充足性（rate adequacy）或損失選取，並且以事故年度（accident year）為基礎來做。在許多州，我們享有規模優勢，以及能以較短期間回溯來訂定費率的能力。因此，我們會把準備金充足性以及其實現的事故期間納入，然後用典型的精算方法來評估費率充足性。

Jim commented on the rate side, which is incredibly important to make sure we get the right rates down on the street. Tracy, on the reserve side, sending reserves for our financials, we have a fantastic actuarial team. They have been working hard to make sure we get our reserves correct. We do it every quarter, but certainly as we approach the end of the year. And so there's been a focus on that. And so we believe we have the right adequate reserves currently, and we will continue to strive to have minimal variation in those reserves as we set them at the end of the year.

Jim 談的是費率端，這非常重要，確保我們在市場上的費率設定正確。Tracy，就準備金端而言——也就是為我們財報所設定的準備金——我們有一支非常出色的精算團隊。他們一直很努力，確保我們的準備金設定正確。我們每季都會做，但當然在接近年底時會更著重。因此這方面一直是重點。我們相信目前的準備金是適當且充足的，我們也會持續努力，在年底設定準備金時，讓準備金的變動幅度盡可能小。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

David Motemaden，Evercore ISI。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just another question just on agentic, AI or AI agent. So Tricia, you spoke about how, even though it's limited today that you think that if agent changes consumer shopping behavior you guys are usually at the forefront of that change and capitalizing on that. Can you just talk about some of the things you're working on to be able to capitalize on this potential change in shopping behavior?

嗨，謝謝。早安。再問一題，關於 agentic、AI 或 AI agent。Tricia，你提到雖然目前還很有限，但你認為如果代理型 AI 改變消費者的購物行為，你們通常會站在這種變化的最前沿並加以掌握。你能談談你們正在做哪些事情，以便把握這種潛在的購物行為改變嗎？

Yeah, David. We are working on a bunch of different things. We have a lot of different tests and pilots, and we're involved with many different vendors as we think about this because we do believe that could absolutely change behavior, and we want to be out in front of it. I hesitate to share many details because I really want to do more than tell at this juncture. And that's why I tried to put a little bit of that in my opening comments. What I'll say is when we have a more cogent solid story to tell you the results of many of those tests, which we believe are very positive, we'll have another deep dive some time in the future.

好的，David。我們正在做很多不同的事情。我們有許多不同的測試與試點（pilots），也與許多不同的供應商合作來思考這件事，因為我們確實相信這可能會徹底改變行為，而我們希望走在前面。我有點猶豫要分享太多細節，因為在這個階段，我更希望用成果來說話，而不只是口頭描述。這也是為什麼我在開場發言中試著稍微提到一些。我想說的是，當我們能更有條理、更扎實地向你們說明許多測試的結果——而我們相信結果非常正面——我們未來某個時間會再做一次更深入的說明。

Okay. Thanks. Fair enough. For my second question, I'm wondering, there's been some press out there of some of your competitors who are more exclusive agent-focused changing or potentially changing in the future, some of their agent compensation structures. I'm just wondering if you're seeing any impact of that on shopping activity out there, particularly in the bundled market?

好的，謝謝。可以理解。第二個問題：最近有一些媒體報導，某些更偏向獨家代理（exclusive agent）的競爭對手，正在改變或未來可能改變他們的代理人酬勞結構。我想知道你們是否看到這對外部的比價／購物活動有任何影響，特別是在綑綁（bundled）市場？

I don't think we've seen anything yet, and I hesitate to talk about what companies are doing, but we do believe that is an opportunity for us as more and more companies either sort of changed their compensation or more actually flock to the independent agent channel because we think that is a great channel for choice for customers, and we believe when there's more choices and more competition we win.

我認為我們目前還沒真正看到什麼成果，而且我也不太願意去談其他公司在做什麼，但我們確實相信，隨著越來越多公司要嘛調整了他們的薪酬制度，要嘛更實際地轉向獨立代理人通路，這對我們而言是一個機會，因為我們認為那是一個能讓客戶有更多選擇的很棒通路；而且我們相信，當選擇更多、競爭更激烈時，我們會勝出。

Matthew Heimermann, Citi.

Matthew Heimermann，花旗。

Hi. Good morning. I guess I'd like to better understand some of the technical and legal challenges. Do you think you need to tackle to allow customers to shop and buy with your systems of the agentic tools?

嗨，早安。我想我希望能更了解一些技術與法律上的挑戰。你認為為了讓客戶能透過你們的代理式工具系統來比價與購買，你們需要解決哪些問題？

I think there's a lot. And that's why I think there's a lot to unfold and learn and understand, especially because -- this is a regulated industry. Consumers want to feel comfortable and good that they've picked the right coverages to protect them. They want to make sure it's at a fair price. So there's a lot that goes into this.

我認為有很多。也因此我覺得還有很多需要展開、學習與理解，尤其是——這是一個受監管的產業。消費者希望能安心、確信自己選對了保障範圍來保護自己。他們也希望確保價格是公平的。所以這裡面牽涉很多事情。

So it's is I think you captured Matthew, it's way more complex than just getting a rate for rate because underneath all of the rates that we give, whether in the independent agent channel or the direct channel is there's a lot of variables, a lot of information, a lot of external information that we have to gather. So there will be challenges, but that's not unlike challenges. We see anytime something changes. And so we'll be at the forefront, and we will make sure that whatever we do, we do it in the right way.

所以我想你抓到重點了，Matthew，這遠比單純拿到一個費率來比費率複雜得多，因為在我們提供的所有費率底下——不論是在獨立代理人通路或直銷通路——都有很多變數、很多資訊，以及我們必須蒐集的外部資訊。所以一定會有挑戰，但這並不不同於我們在任何變動發生時所看到的挑戰。我們每次遇到變化都會看到這些。因此我們會站在最前線，並確保不論我們做什麼，都會以正確的方式來做。

More to come there. I guess the follow-up question be changing gears. There's litigation in some states. There's congressional investigations potentially on the horizons around claims handling practices in the industry. I'm curious on the property side, in particular, given that the capability that you've invested in and now own as opposed to outsource parts of. Is there any noticeable differences in kind of your approach and processes and what informs us relative to competitors?

後續還會有更多內容。我想追問一題，換個話題。有些州出現訴訟。而且在理賠處理實務方面，國會調查可能也在醞釀中。我特別想問財產險這一塊，考量到你們投入並且現在是自有能力、而不是外包其中部分。相較於競爭對手，你們在做法與流程上是否有任何明顯差異？以及有哪些因素在支撐你們的做法？

It's hard to say because I don't have their manuals of how they do things. I would tell you how we do because this is sort of where I grew up. We are always going to do the right thing by our customer. if it's -- if we're on a balance of what to do, we always go towards the customer. This is in the moment where they need it most, especially in likely their most expensive thing they'll ever own.

這很難說，因為我沒有他們的作業手冊，不知道他們怎麼做。我可以告訴你我們怎麼做，因為這算是我一路成長的領域。我們永遠會以客戶為先、做對的事。如果是在權衡該怎麼做的情況下，我們總是往客戶那一邊傾斜。這是在他們最需要的時刻，尤其是對他們而言很可能是他們一生中最昂貴的資產。

And that's one of the reasons why we invested because we wanted our people there with our customers and making sure that they have -- that they've spoken to with respect that they're cared for and that they know that they got what they paid for. So that's why we're investing so much on the property side. We're very proud of our claims service. and have been proud for decades of how much we put into our training, and we're doing that. And that's exactly why we decided to do it on the property side.

而這也是我們投資的原因之一，因為我們希望我們的人能在客戶身邊，並確保他們——確保客戶被尊重地對待、被照顧，並且知道自己得到的是他們所支付保費應得的保障。所以這就是我們在財產險端投入這麼多的原因。我們對自己的理賠服務非常自豪。而且數十年來我們一直以在訓練上的投入為傲，我們也正在持續這麼做。這也正是我們決定在財產險端自己做的原因。

I really can't speak to the competition though.

不過我真的無法評論競爭對手。

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

Paul Newsome，Piper Sandler。

Good morning. I probably could break this answer for you. But I think it's worth asking. I think the big fear is that something that you've seen in the increased shopping behavior or the potential for changes your history of taking fairly small bites you try to change prices.

早安。我大概可以替你把這個答案拆解一下。但我覺得還是值得問。我認為最大的擔憂是：你們看到的比價行為增加，或未來可能出現的變化，會不會改變你們過去採取「小步調」調價的歷史做法。

So I mean, it's worth reiterating just your approach towards the actual price changes and whether or not how we should think about the potential for you or your competitors taking pretty big changes in the future if the environment changes.

所以我的意思是，值得你們再重申一次你們對實際調價的做法，以及如果環境改變，我們應該如何看待你們或競爭對手未來可能採取相當大幅度調整的可能性。

I think no matter what the environment we are going to remain disciplined. And we're not going to -- people want stable rates. Customers want stable rates. And so we're going to do that. And we have so much data that are -- that's our competitive advantage.

我認為不論環境如何，我們都會維持紀律。而且我們不會——人們想要穩定的費率。客戶想要穩定的費率。所以我們會這麼做。而且我們擁有大量數據——那是我們的競爭優勢。

Our biggest competitive advantage, I believe, with the prices is our industry-leading segmentation including our UBI or snapshot. So we're going to -- it will be a different way with which customers want to shop possibly, but we're going to keep our discipline because I'm not going to swing the penta we will always work towards our target profit margins that we've set.

我認為我們在定價上最大的競爭優勢，是業界領先的分群能力，包括我們的 UBI（依使用量計費）或 Snapshot。所以——客戶可能會用不同方式來比價，但我們會保持紀律，因為我不會大幅擺動；我們會一直朝我們設定的目標利潤率努力。

I'd just add on that Progressive. We have a history of competing in different shopping environments. An example is in the independent agent channel, where with some agents were shopped on a comparative rater against many other brands. And we believe we compete very effectively there. And in the direct channel, often people come directly to Progressive and get one quote.

我再補充一點，Progressive。我們過去在不同的比價環境中競爭是有歷史經驗的。例如在獨立代理人通路，有些代理人會透過比較報價系統（comparative rater）把我們和許多其他品牌一起比價。而我們相信我們在那裡的競爭力非常強。而在直銷通路，很多人會直接來 Progressive 只拿一個報價。

Sometimes though, we offer them quotes of other companies. And so we've had a history of being able to both engage one-on-one with customers when they're getting a single pool, but also engage in a competitive environment with many quotes. And so that makes us confident that as the environment changes, we can remain nimble and respond to it effectively.

不過有時候，我們也會提供他們其他公司的報價。因此我們一直以來既能在客戶只拿單一報價時進行一對一互動，也能在多家報價的競爭環境中應對。所以這讓我們有信心，當環境改變時，我們能保持靈活並有效回應。

I guess the one other thing appreciate.

我想還有一件事，謝謝。

Hold on, Pat is going to add something real quick.

等一下，Pat 要很快補充一下。

Yeah, just a quick you mentioned a step change in kind of rating, like, unless there's a massive change in acquisition cost, I think our ability to leverage our scale, leverage our data and actually revise rates more frequently and with a smaller magnitude is essential to winning with more frequent shopping that potentially is automated or done by an agent. So I just challenge your proposition that big changes may come out of this. I think it's the carriers who are equipped to more precisely and more rapidly adjust rates on a small basis to ensure as the machines shop more often, that you've got your best most competitive, most accurate rate out on the street almost continuously.

對，簡單補充一下：你提到在費率調整上可能會出現某種「階躍式」的大變動；但除非取得成本出現巨大的變化，否則我認為我們運用規模、運用數據，並且更頻繁、以更小幅度修訂費率的能力，對於在更頻繁的比價（可能是自動化或由代理人完成）環境中勝出至關重要。所以我想挑戰你「可能會出現大幅變動」這個前提。我認為真正具備優勢的是那些能更精準、更快速、以小幅度調整費率的保險公司，確保當機器更常比價時，你在市場上幾乎能持續不斷地提供最具競爭力、最準確的費率。

Appreciate that. That's all I want to ask. Thank you for the help.

感謝補充。我就問到這裡。謝謝你們的協助。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

Brian Meredith，瑞銀。

Yeah, thanks. So for my first question, I'm just curious, Commercial Lines for the quarter, if I look at your, call it, combined ratio or loss ratio ex reserving, it's kind of mid-95 or mid mid-90s combined ratios. Is there something unusual that happened this quarter that really call it the pop up? Or is this kind of a new level that we should expect?

好的，謝謝。我第一個問題是，我有點好奇本季商業險（Commercial Lines），如果我看你們的——姑且稱之為——綜合率或扣除準備金因素後的損失率，大概是在 95% 左右或 90% 中段的綜合率。這一季是不是發生了什麼不尋常的事情，才讓它「跳」上來？還是說這是我們應該預期的新水準？

No, I don't think you should necessarily expect it as a new level. August, there was some combined ratios up due to some higher reserving in September. -- we would call out a month of just some elevated -- typically elevated in terms of volatility. So we're watching those closely. But we -- obviously, we're still sub-93 for the quarter, so we feel good about it.

不，我不認為你應該把它視為新的水準。8 月的綜合率有上升，主要是因為 9 月準備金提列較高。——我們會把那視為某個月份出現一些偏高——通常是波動性偏高。所以我們正在密切觀察。但我們——顯然本季仍低於 93，所以我們對此感覺良好。

But no, I don't think you'd necessarily have that as the new normal because those 2 months were a little bit volatile based on different things.

但不，我不認為你應該把那當作新的常態，因為那兩個月基於不同因素而有點波動。

Makes sense. Thanks. And then second question, just pivoting over to personal auto. Claims frequency trends continue to be quite favorable for you all and I think the industry. I'm just curious, are you factoring in call it, this favorable claims frequency we've seen for at least the last couple of years into pricing right now? And is maybe there a new outlook that you'll have or your long-term outlook on frequency may be changing given what's going on with ADAS technology and all that stuff for cars?

有道理。謝謝。那第二個問題，轉到個人汽車保險。理賠頻率的趨勢對你們以及我認為整個產業而言都持續相當有利。我只是好奇，你們在目前的定價中，是否已把我們至少在過去幾年看到的這種有利的理賠頻率納入考量？另外，鑑於ADAS技術以及汽車相關的各種變化，你們對頻率的展望是否會有新的看法，或你們對長期頻率的看法是否正在改變？

Yeah. We look at all the technology, and we can talk about the pricing. I'll have Jim talk about the pricing. What we're seeing and what we're watching prime more closely is driving behavior. And driving is still down about 3%. I'm not sure if that's the new normal. We're seeing a lot of the driving non-commute miles like travel miles, which have less frequency. So we'll watch those to see if those persist and as we think about pricing.

是的。我們會看所有這些技術，也可以談談定價。我會請Jim來談定價。我們目前看到、也更密切關注的是駕駛行為。而行駛里程仍大約下降了3%。我不確定這是否會成為新的常態。我們看到很多非通勤的行駛里程，例如旅行里程，這類里程的出險頻率較低。所以我們會觀察這些是否會持續，並在思考定價時納入考量。

Yeah. And I would just reiterate a point I made in an earlier reply that when we think about rate adequacy and specifically future trends. We do so at the state level. So we'll pick up variation across jurisdiction or market. And then while frequency is a portion of what we evaluate when we think about future inflation, there's also certainly correlations and offsets with severity and our mix of business.

是的。我也想重申我在先前回覆中提到的一點：當我們思考費率是否充足，尤其是未來趨勢時，我們是以州為單位來評估。因此我們會捕捉不同司法管轄區或市場之間的差異。此外，雖然頻率是我們在思考未來通膨時評估的一部分，但它與損失嚴重度以及我們的業務組合之間，確實也存在相關性與相互抵銷的關係。

So we'll factor in all three, understand if we see a drop in frequency. But as illustratively, it's a function of technology and there's an offsetting increase in severity we'll pick that up and then basically look to see with some degree of reasonable accuracy, what we think our best estimate is of future overall loss costs.

所以我們會把這三者都納入考量，並理解如果我們看到頻率下降。但舉例來說，如果這是技術因素造成，而同時嚴重度出現抵銷性的上升，我們也會反映出來，然後基本上會以某種合理的準確度，去判斷我們對未來整體損失成本的最佳估計是什麼。

Thanks, Jim. Thanks, Brian.

謝謝你，Jim。謝謝你，Brian。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

Alex Scott，巴克萊。

Hey, good morning. Wanted to ask on capital deployment and maybe just remind us your priorities, particularly as we're heading into end of the year when sometimes you've done a special dividend?

嗨，早安。想請教資本運用（capital deployment），也許也請你們提醒一下你們的優先順序，特別是接近年底時，你們有時會發放特別股利？

Yeah. I'll have Andrew take that. I'll have to talk, like you said about how we think about capital and how we think about excess capital.

好的。我會請Andrew來回答。就像你說的，我會請他談談我們如何看待資本，以及如何看待超額資本。

Yeah, Alex. So the -- I'll start by just reiterating our three layers of capital that we think about at Progressive. The first layer is regulatory capital. This is the required capital from our regulators, and here, an important metric, we think about as our premium to surplus ratio. I'll remind you that two of our regulators have allowed us provide clearance to move personal auto to 3.5:1, which is a higher level of operating leverage than we've had historically in those jurisdictions for personal auto.

好的，Alex。我先重申一下我們在Progressive思考資本的三個層次。第一層是監理資本（regulatory capital）。這是監理機關要求的資本；在這裡，我們認為一個重要指標是保費對盈餘比（premium to surplus ratio）。我提醒你，兩個監理機關已允許我們取得核准，將個人汽車保險的該比率提高到3.5:1，這代表在那些司法管轄區中，個人汽車保險的營運槓桿水準高於我們過去的歷史水準。

Other environments and other products have different levels, different thresholds for that same premium to surplus metric. But that first layer is about regulatory capital. The second layer is our contingent capital. There, we try to think about 1 in 200-year events and the impact on our balance sheet and make sure that we have enough capital to withstand those events. Above that is where we -- what we consider to be additional or excess capital, and that's where I think both internally and externally, we're focused on is what that looks like and what we should be thinking about there.

其他環境與其他產品，在同樣的保費對盈餘指標上會有不同水準、不同門檻。但第一層就是監理資本。第二層是我們的或有資本（contingent capital）。在這一層，我們會嘗試以200年一遇事件（1 in 200-year events）來思考其對資產負債表的影響，並確保我們有足夠資本承受這些事件。再往上，就是我們所認為的額外或超額資本；我認為無論內部或外部，目前關注的焦點都是它的樣貌，以及我們應該如何思考這一層。

We've had a strong year of profitable execution, and that's resulted in really strong capital generation. And with the capital we generate, our most important use of funds is to fund our core business, which we've grown by $3.5 billion in net written premium so far in 2026. Beyond funding business growth, we take a disciplined approach to that additional capital layer. We try to optimize our balance sheet and maximize shareholder returns. And we talked about this in the March investor call, and we look at really three options for that additional capital.

我們今年在獲利執行上表現強勁，帶來非常強的資本生成。而對於我們所生成的資本，最重要的資金用途是支持我們的核心業務；截至2026年目前為止，我們的淨簽單保費（net written premium）已成長35億美元。在支持業務成長之外，我們對那一層額外資本採取嚴謹、紀律性的做法。我們希望最佳化資產負債表並最大化股東報酬。我們在3月的投資人電話會議中談過這點；對於這層額外資本，我們主要看三個選項。

The first one is share repurchase. In 2026, we already repurchased $1.6 billion in stock, which is about $1.5 billion more than we repurchased last year. We still have a quarter left in the year, and so it could certainly go up. While our strong profitability metrics are similar to last year, we have spent considerably more capital on share repurchases than we did last year. The second bucket of options we look at are around strategic options.

第一個是庫藏股回購（share repurchase）。在2026年，我們已回購了16億美元的股票，約比去年多回購15億美元。今年還剩下一個季度，所以這個數字當然可能再提高。雖然我們強勁的獲利指標與去年相近，但我們在股票回購上投入的資本明顯高於去年。第二個我們會看的選項類別，是策略性選項（strategic options）。

We will continue to evaluate strategic options available to our operating business or in our investment portfolio that may require capital. Our final bucket is dividends. Finally, our Board will consider declaring a variable dividend, also taking to account the financial flexibility that we want to have as a company. The decision there depends on our other options and opportunities. And so dividends are just one aspect of the larger conversation around capital, and we continue to iterate through those three options for additional capital to optimize our balance sheet and maximize shareholder value. And so we'll continue to do that as we go towards the end of the year, and our Board will make a decision on the dividend later in the year.

我們會持續評估在營運業務或投資組合中可用、且可能需要資本的策略性選項。最後一個類別是股利（dividends）。最後，我們的董事會會考慮宣告可變動股利（variable dividend），同時也會把我們希望公司保有的財務彈性納入考量。這項決策取決於我們其他的選項與機會。因此，股利只是資本整體討論中的一個面向；我們會持續在這三個額外資本選項之間反覆權衡，以最佳化資產負債表並最大化股東價值。所以在接近年底時我們也會持續這麼做，而董事會將在今年稍晚對股利作出決定。

Thanks. That's all I have.

謝謝。我就這些。

Meyer Shields, Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods.

Meyer Shields，Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods。

Great. Thanks so much, and good morning. Tricia, your letter mentioned entering California with a BOP product. And I was hoping you could update us on where you are in small commercial in terms of growing as fast as possible.

很好。非常感謝，早安。Tricia，你在信中提到以BOP產品進入加州。我想請你更新一下，在小型商業保險方面，你們目前在「盡可能快速成長」這個目標上進展到哪裡了？

We're in 47 states. California is exciting to me because it has so many small businesses. It's obviously very new. We don't have a lot of data on that. We are on track with our plan that Karen rolled out some years ago in terms of increasing. And I believe we are continuing to evolve that plan because we think there's even more opportunity. So that's another one of those areas like I talked about property that I believe, in the next several years, we have a lot of runway to grow. I'm very excited about it.

我們已在47個州營運。加州讓我很興奮，因為那裡有非常多小型企業。這顯然是非常新的市場。我們在那方面沒有太多數據。就提升規模而言，我們正按著Karen幾年前提出的計畫在推進。而且我相信我們也在持續演進那個計畫，因為我們認為還有更多機會。所以這也是我提到的不動產（property）那類領域之一；我相信在未來幾年，我們有很長的成長跑道。我對此非常興奮。

Okay. And then unrelated follow-up, I guess. When or if we assume that there's a lot more shopping and maybe lower conversion rates in an agentic AI world, are there any expenses associated with issuing quotes that require a shift in business model. I'm thinking like paying for credit scores, but I don't know if there's a more broad issue.

好的。那接著一個不相關的追問。如果我們假設在代理式AI（agentic AI）的世界裡，會有更多比價行為、而且轉換率可能更低，那麼在出具報價（issuing quotes）方面是否會有任何費用，導致需要調整商業模式？我想到的例子是支付信用分數的費用，但我不確定是否有更廣泛的議題。

Yeah, I'm sure there will be all know that we're at that point, yes. I mean I think from a conversion perspective, we're excited about that. I'm not sure if I'm answering your question, but yes, there will be expenses related to information we need to accurately quote but there'll be expenses or savings related to things being more from an agent perspective.

是的，我確定會有——我們都知道我們正走到那個階段，是的。我的意思是，從轉換（conversion）的角度來看，我們對此感到興奮。我不確定我是否回答到你的問題，但答案是：會的，為了精準報價，我們需要取得資訊，這會帶來相關費用；但同時，從代理（agent）角度來看，事情更偏向代理化之後，也會有一些費用或節省。

The only thing I would add is that, I mean, we feel generally, if shopping increases, that benefits progressive because that means more consumers are going to see the competitive rates that we have available. So we'll continue to watch that, but that's not one of the not one of the primary things that we're looking at right now.

我唯一想補充的是，我們整體上認為，如果比價行為增加，這對Progressive是有利的，因為這代表會有更多消費者看到我們所提供的具競爭力的費率。所以我們會持續觀察，但這並不是我們目前關注的主要事項之一。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Yaron Kinar, Mizuho.

Yaron Kinar，瑞穗。

Thank you. Good morning. So on your comment regarding advertising to maximize growth as long as that spend remains efficient. Are there changes to advertising channels that you're prioritizing when considering normalizing retention?

謝謝。早安。關於您提到為了最大化成長而投放廣告、只要該支出仍然有效率。在考量留存率回歸常態時，您是否有優先調整或側重的廣告渠道？

Yeah. I mean we look at that all the time to see what the efficiency is both on a monetary basis and a conversion basis, and we look also what competitors are doing. So as an example, I talked a little bit about not spending in the channels where it's not economically viable or prudent for us. We won't do that across the board, whether it's agency or direct. So yeah, that's -- our story is basically we have -- we buy a lot of our media internally. We think that's one of our secret sauces. We understand the conversion rate where we're advertising. We'll keep trying to capitalize on that given our large budget.

是的。我們一直都在看這件事，從金額效率與轉換效率兩個面向來評估，也會觀察競爭對手在做什麼。舉例來說，我稍早提到，我們不會在對我們而言在經濟上不可行或不審慎的渠道上花錢。不論是透過代理商或直接投放，我們都不會全面性地那樣做。所以，是的——我們的故事基本上是：我們——我們有大量媒體採買是內部自行完成的。我們認為那是我們的祕密武器之一。我們了解我們投放廣告的地方其轉換率如何。在我們龐大的預算之下，我們會持續嘗試把握並放大這些優勢。

Maybe just one addition there. In addition to optimizing around the conversion we authorize around the lifetime value of the customers that are coming in. And so -- to your question, retention is already part of that calculation. And so as it changes by advertising channel, we're able to make sure that our lifetime values reflect any dynamics there.

我再補充一點。除了圍繞轉換率做最佳化之外，我們也會以進來的客戶之終身價值（lifetime value）作為我們核准投放的依據。因此——回到你的問題，留存率已經是該計算的一部分。所以當不同廣告渠道的留存表現有所變化時，我們能確保我們的終身價值評估會反映其中的任何動態。

Thanks. That's very helpful. And then for my second question, if I could shift gears to the investment portfolio. So as the company shifts that portfolio to take on a bit more risk per comments you made, I think, in previous calls, what's the capital impact from this? And I guess what I'm trying to get at is, does it potentially lower your investment leverage or be kind of become a headwind to your move to extend premium a surplus to 3.5 times?

謝謝。這非常有幫助。接著我的第二個問題，我想把話題轉到投資組合。隨著公司依照你們先前電話會議中的說法，讓該投資組合承擔稍多一些風險，這對資本會有什麼影響？我想問的是：這是否可能降低你們的投資槓桿，或成為你們把保費對剩餘（premium-to-surplus）提高到 3.5 倍的阻力？

I'll have Andrew start with that. Maybe if you need Jonathan to weigh in on some more details we could do that.

我先請 Andrew 來回答。如果你需要 Jonathan 就更多細節補充，我們也可以請他說明。

Yeah, I'll start and then Jon can add on. So the way -- so our regulatory capital layer, I talked about the three capital layers in the previous question. The first layer is regulatory capital. For that, as we go through the calculations with our regulators around RBC and Iris ratio, certainly, our investment mix has an impact there. we mostly talk about pre-new surplus because that is an Iris ratio that is most impactful on the amount of capital we need to hold in the regulatory layer, but investments do play a role there.

好的，我先開始，然後 Jon 再補充。我們的監理資本層——我在前一個問題談到三個資本層。第一層是監理資本。在這一層，當我們與監理機關就 RBC 與 Iris 比率進行計算時，我們的投資組合配置當然會產生影響。我們多半談的是「新剩餘前」（pre-new surplus），因為那是一個 Iris 比率，對於我們在監理層需要持有的資本量影響最大，但投資確實也在其中扮演角色。

And then secondly, when we calculate contingent capital layers, we also include our investment mix there and make sure that as we think about a 1 in 200-year event, it's reflective of our investments. So to your question, yes, investments impact both of those, that being said, they are not driving major changes today, and it doesn't hold us back from doing what we think is right from a shareholder value perspective. And so we do consider the impact on capital when we're making investment choices but it is not a huge driver today of our investment selection. Jon Bauer, I don't know if you want to add on anything there.

第二，當我們計算或有資本層（contingent capital layers）時，也會把投資組合配置納入，並確保當我們思考「200 年一遇」事件時，能反映我們的投資狀況。所以回到你的問題，是的，投資會影響這兩者；但話說回來，它們目前並未導致重大變化，也不會阻礙我們從股東價值角度去做我們認為正確的事。因此，我們在做投資選擇時確實會考量對資本的影響，但目前它並不是我們投資選擇的主要驅動因素。Jon Bauer，你是否想在這裡再補充一些？

Yeah, thanks. The only thing that I would just echo in terms of what Andrew is saying is the leadership team at Progressive, be it on the investment side, CFO, CEO with Andrew and Tricia. We are always talking about the best way that we could drive long-term shareholder value. And so you can be assured when we think about investment risk that we would take now or in the future, it would only be decided in the realm of this is the right use of capital that would drive overall shareholder returns for Progressive.

好的，謝謝。我想呼應 Andrew 的說法：Progressive 的領導團隊——不論是投資端、CFO、CEO，包括 Andrew 與 Tricia——我們一直在討論，什麼方式最能推動長期股東價值。因此你可以放心，當我們思考現在或未來要承擔的投資風險時，只會在「這是資本的正確運用，能為 Progressive 帶來整體股東報酬」的框架下做決定。

So we are all very much focused on how do we have the return on equity and the growth that we're looking for to drive the business forward. So it's a great question, and those conversations are always had, be it any of the realms that Andrew talked about in terms of use of capital for share repurchase, dividends or strategic or investment risk. Those are all the questions we're asking ourselves and our focus is on driving long-term shareholder value.

所以我們都非常專注在：如何取得我們想要的股東權益報酬率（ROE）與成長，來推動業務向前。這是個很好的問題，而這些討論一直都在進行，不論是 Andrew 提到的任何資本運用面向——例如庫藏股回購、股利、策略性用途或投資風險。這些都是我們會問自己的問題，而我們的重點是推動長期股東價值。

Pablo Singzon, JPMorgan.

Pablo Singzon，摩根大通。

Hi, good morning. Combined ratios in the homeowners book have been very good for some time already with or without catastrophes. Do you think that goes up the more you push into the bundled market? And I guess if you have a 96% target for personal auto, do you have a similar target in mind for homeowners?

嗨，早安。房屋險業務的綜合成本率（combined ratio）在一段時間以來一直非常好，不論有沒有巨災。你認為當你們更積極推進綑綁（bundled）市場時，這個比率會上升嗎？另外，如果你們對個人車險的目標是 96%，那對房屋險是否也有類似的目標？

Yeah. We don't actually share our individual targets for different products, and we are pleased with the combined ratios that we have been enjoying. However, we do want to grow, so that could push it up a little bit. And obviously, catastrophes are a part of it, and we have those typically baked in on a low, but it's been a very low cat year. But yes, I mean we're going to grow as fast as we can in that the 70s combined ratio probably isn't long-term strategic if we want to grow. We'll definitely in the aggregate be at or below 96.

是的。我們其實不會分享不同產品各自的目標值，而我們也對目前享有的綜合成本率感到滿意。不過，我們確實想要成長，所以這可能會讓它稍微上升一些。當然，巨災也是其中一部分，我們通常會以較低的假設把它納入，但今年確實是巨災非常低的一年。但沒錯，我的意思是，我們會盡可能快地成長；若我們想成長，70 多的綜合成本率可能不是長期策略上可行的狀態。整體而言，我們肯定會在 96 或以下。

And I would just add, as it relates to our calendar year performance, we are still getting some measure of a tailwind on the rate action we've taken over the past couple of years. And just a reminder that we sell annual policies. So that tailwind will persist longer relative to what we would experience in auto.

我再補充一點：就我們的曆年表現而言，我們仍在某種程度上受惠於過去幾年所採取的調價行動所帶來的順風。也提醒一下，我們銷售的是一年期保單。因此，相較於車險，我們感受到的這股順風會持續更久。

This concludes the Q&A session, and this concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

問答環節到此結束，今天的電話會議也到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。