Healthpeak Properties Inc (PEAK) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Healthpeak Properties, Inc. Fourth Quarter Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Andrew Johns, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加 Healthpeak Properties, Inc. 第四季電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，該事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁安德魯約翰斯 (Andrew Johns)。請繼續。

Welcome to Healthpeak's Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. Today's conference call will contain certain forward-looking statements. Although we believe the expectations reflected in any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Discussion of risks and risk factors is included in our press release and detailed in our filings with the SEC.

歡迎參加 Healthpeak 2023 年第四季財務業績電話會議。今天的電話會議將包含某些前瞻性陳述。儘管我們認為任何前瞻性陳述中反映的預期都是基於合理的假設，但前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。我們的新聞稿中包含對風險和風險因素的討論，並在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細介紹了風險和風險因素。

We do not undertake a duty to update any forward-looking statements. Certain non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed on this call. And in an exhibit to the 8-K we furnished to the SEC yesterday, we have reconciled all non-GAAP financial measures to most directly comparable GAAP measures in accordance with Reg G requirements. The exhibit is also available on our website at healthpeak.com. I'll now turn the call over to our President, Chief Executive Officer, Scott Brinker.

我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的責任。本次電話會議將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。在我們昨天向 SEC 提供的 8-K 資料中，我們已根據 Reg G 要求將所有非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標進行了核對。該展覽也可在我們的網站 healthpeak.com 上購買。現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長 Scott Brinker。

Thanks, Andrew. Good morning, and welcome to Healthpeak's Fourth Quarter Earnings Call.

謝謝，安德魯。早上好，歡迎參加 Healthpeak 第四季財報電話會議。

Joining me today for prepared remarks is Pete Scott, our CFO. Joining for Q&A is John Thomas, the CEO of Physicians Realty Trust and our senior team.

今天與我一起發表準備好的演講的是我們的財務長 Pete Scott。 Physicians Realty Trust 執行長約翰·托馬斯 (John Thomas) 和我們的高級團隊將參與問答。

I want to start by thanking our entire team for their contributions in 2023. Public market volatility, notwithstanding, your collaboration and winning mindset allowed us to produce record leasing volumes in 2 of our 3 business segments and to exceed our initial same-store and earnings guidance by 130 basis points and $0.05 per share, respectively.

首先，我要感謝我們整個團隊在2023 年做出的貢獻。儘管公開市場波動較大，但你們的合作和獲勝心態使我們在3 個業務部門中的2 個業務部門中創造了創紀錄的租賃量，並超過了我們最初的同店收入和收入指導值分別上漲 130 個基點和每股 0.05 美元。

Last evening, we reported a strong fourth quarter, both operationally and financially. For the fiscal year, we grew same-store NOI by 4.8% and AFFO per share by 5.5%, driving our dividend payout ratio below 80%. The balance sheet remains in great shape with 5.2x net debt to EBITDA at year-end. We expect to close the strategic combination with Physicians Realty Trust on March 1. Since the announcement in late October, the 2 teams have been working side by side on culture, best practices, tenant relationships, technology and every other area that will determine the success of the merger.

昨晚，我們報告了第四季度的營運和財務表現強勁。本財年，我們的同店 NOI 成長了 4.8%，每股 AFFO 成長了 5.5%，導致我們的股息支付率低於 80%。資產負債表仍保持良好狀態，年底淨債務為 EBITDA 的 5.2 倍。我們預計將於 3 月 1 日完成與 Physicians Realty Trust 的策略性合併。自 10 月底宣布這一消息以來，兩個團隊一直在文化、最佳實踐、租戶關係、技術以及其他決定成功的領域並肩工作的合併。

We have the highest level of confidence that this combination will in fact augment our platform capabilities, relationships, balance sheet and earnings. Just last week, we internalized property management in 3 markets with up to 6 additional markets expected to go in-house by midyear. We've had near 100% success, bringing the existing third-party staff onto our team. Those employees, on average, have worked in these buildings for 7 years, minimizing execution risk.

我們非常有信心，這種合併實際上將增強我們的平台能力、關係、資產負債表和收益。就在上週，我們將 3 個市場的物業管理內部化，預計到年中還將有多達 6 個市場內部化。我們將現有的第三方員工引入我們的團隊，取得了近 100% 的成功。這些員工平均在這些建築中工作了 7 年，最大限度地降低了執行風險。

As for synergies, we're confident we'll achieve the targets we outlined in late October, and they are contributing several cents per share to our earnings in 2024. Pete will expand upon the synergies and outlook in a few minutes. I want to share some thoughts on the operating environment for the 2 largest segments, starting with Outpatient Medical, where the sector is benefiting from demand exceeding supply. We have 2 decades of operating history in the sector and in 2023, we were at or near all-time highs for leasing volume, retention, renewal spreads and same-store growth.

至於協同效應，我們有信心實現 10 月下旬制定的目標，並且他們將為我們 2024 年的每股收益貢獻幾美分。Pete 將在幾分鐘內詳細闡述協同效應和前景。我想分享一些關於兩個最大細分市場營運環境的想法，首先是門診醫療，該行業受益於需求超過供應。我們在該行業擁有 20 年的經營歷史，到 2023 年，我們的租賃量、保留率、續租價差和同店增長均達到或接近歷史最高水平。

Looking forward to 2024, our same-store outlook includes the DOC portfolio and is 75 basis points above our 5-year history for initial guidance. We expect to benefit from sector fundamentals that have never been stronger, high-quality assets and operations and internalization. Most important, we believe we're combining the 2 best outpatient platforms in the country to create an even bigger and better company to drive internal and external growth for the next decade plus.

展望 2024 年，我們的同店前景包括 DOC 投資組合，比我們 5 年歷史初始指引高 75 個基點。我們預計將受益於前所未有的強勁產業基本面、優質資產、營運和國際化。最重要的是，我們相信我們正在合併全國兩個最好的門診平台，創建一個更大、更好的公司，以推動未來十年的內部和外部成長。

Today, more than 65% of the tenants in the combined portfolio are health systems. When they make leasing decisions, it's often driven by relationships and no one is better positioned than the combined company. It's a very different leasing dynamic than other real estate sectors who deal with tens of thousands of very small tenants. Relationships are absolutely critical in our sector and the senior team of the combined company has more than 200 years of experience in the sector, creating an unrivaled relationship network. Our next generation coming behind them is learning from the best and bringing energy to continue innovating as the sector evolves.

如今，合併後的投資組合中超過 65% 的租戶是衛生系統。當他們做出租賃決定時，通常是由關係驅動的，沒有人比合併後的公司處於更有利的位置。與處理數以萬計的小型租戶的其他房地產行業相比，這是一種非常不同的租賃動態。關係在我們的行業中絕對至關重要，合併後公司的高級團隊在該行業擁有 200 多年的經驗，創造了無與倫比的關係網絡。他們身後的下一代正在向最優秀的人學習，並隨著產業的發展帶來繼續創新的能量。

Let me turn to our lab business. The fundamental drivers of long-term growth are solidly intact with both drug approvals and new drug applications at or near all-time highs. That means R&D funding is paying dividends, creating a virtuous cycle. Big Pharma is ramping up partnership deals and M&A to replace looming patent expirations and companies with good data have ready access to capital.

讓我談談我們的實驗室業務。長期成長的基本驅動力完好無損，藥物審批和新藥申請均達到或接近歷史最高水準。這意味著研發資金正在帶來紅利，創造了良性循環。大型製藥公司正在加大合作交易和併購力度，以取代即將到期的專利，並且擁有良好數據的公司可以隨時獲得資本。

At the same time, venture capital deployment and the IPO market remains soft and boards are deferring leasing decisions when possible. Those dynamics will eventually turn in our favor, and we'll be well positioned to capitalize. We can also comfortably underwrite a massive reduction in new deliveries starting in 2025. Fortunately, even during the market exuberance for life science, we stuck to our strategy. As a result, we're highly concentrated in 5 of the best submarkets in the country where we have significant scale and deep relationships to capture leasing demand.

與此同時，創投部署和首次公開募股市場仍然疲軟，董事會正在盡可能推遲租賃決策。這些動態最終將轉向對我們有利的方向，我們將處於有利的位置來利用。我們也可以放心地承擔從 2025 年開始新交付量大幅減少的情況。幸運的是，即使在生命科學市場繁榮時期，我們也堅持我們的策略。因此，我們高度集中在國內 5 個最好的子市場，在這些市場中我們擁有巨大的規模和深厚的關係來捕捉租賃需求。

Moreover, 85% of our rent is from campuses with 400,000 feet or more, which allows us to offer a wide range of price points and space plans and to accommodate expansions, all of which are important to tenants. Year-to-date, we signed 58,000 feet of leases with another 115,000 feet under LOI plus active discussions across our portfolio, so an encouraging start to the year. Cyclical slowdowns create opportunity on the other side, and we're preparing accordingly. In the past few months, we received approvals or entitlements that expand our land bank to more than 4 million square feet in 2 of the most important life science submarkets in the country.

此外，我們 85% 的租金來自 400,000 英尺或以上的園區，這使我們能夠提供廣泛的價格點和空間規劃，並適應擴建，所有這些對租戶來說都很重要。今年迄今為止，我們簽署了 58,000 英尺的租賃合同，並根據意向書簽署了另外 115,000 英尺的租賃合同，加上我們整個投資組合的積極討論，這是今年令人鼓舞的開端。週期性放緩在另一方面創造了機會，我們正在做好相應的準備。在過去的幾個月中，我們獲得了批准或權利，將我們在美國兩個最重要的生命科學子市場的土地儲備擴大到超過 400 萬平方英尺。

We're well positioned when new development begins to pencil. On a related point, we were pleased to close on the sale of a 65% interest at our Callan Ridge development for a 5.3% cap rate with rents essentially at market on a long-term lease. The sale was driven by favorable pricing, not a desire to reduce our lab exposure. We're actively evaluating capital recycling opportunities across the combined $20-plus billion portfolio, including outright sales and JV recaps.

當新的開發項目開始出現時，我們已處於有利位置。與此相關的是，我們很高興以 5.3% 的上限利率出售 Callan Ridge 開發案 65% 的權益，長期租約的租金基本上是按市場價格計算。這次出售是由優惠的價格推動的，而不是為了減少我們實驗室的風險。我們正在積極評估超過 20 億美元投資組合的資本回收機會，包括直接銷售和合資企業回顧。

Any such proceeds would likely be used to fund a growing pipeline of relationship-driven opportunities across our core segments that we could always consider stock buybacks or debt repayment depending on relative returns. I'll close by saying that the macro backdrop has been casting a shadow over the underlying strength of the company. We can't control that shadow but we're more confident than ever about what lies behind it, in particular, platform, portfolio and balance sheet. I'll turn it to Pete.

任何此類收益都可能用於資助我們核心部門不斷增長的關係驅動機會，我們可以根據相對回報考慮股票回購或債務償還。最後我要說的是，宏觀背景為公司的潛在實力蒙上了陰影。我們無法控制這種陰影，但我們比以往任何時候都對它背後的東西更有信心，特別是平台、投資組合和資產負債表。我會把它轉給皮特。

Thanks, Scott. Starting with our financial results. We finished the year on a strong note. For the fourth quarter, we reported FFO as adjusted of $0.46 per share and total portfolio same-store growth of 3.6%. For the full year, we reported FFO as adjusted of $1.78 per share and total portfolio same-store growth of 4.8%. And our balance sheet is in great shape as we finished the year with 5.2x net debt to EBITDA. Let me provide a little more color on segment performance. In lab, same-store growth for the quarter was 2.7%, bringing our full year growth to 3.7%, in line with the midpoint of our guidance range.

謝謝，斯科特。從我們的財務表現開始。我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年。第四季度，我們報告調整後的 FFO 為每股 0.46 美元，投資組合總同店成長率為 3.6%。我們報告全年 FFO 調整後為每股 1.78 美元，總投資組合同店成長率為 4.8%。我們的資產負債表狀況良好，今年結束時我們的淨債務為 EBITDA 的 5.2 倍。讓我對細分市場的表現提供更多的說明。在實驗室中，本季同店成長率為 2.7%，使我們的全年成長率達到 3.7%，與我們指導範圍的中點一致。

During the year, we signed 985,000 square feet of leases with positive cash re-leasing spreads on renewals of 23%. The majority of these lease transactions were signed with existing relationships, and we were also successful in capturing incremental demand from new tenants. Occupancy in our operating portfolio ended the year at 97%.

年內，我們簽署了 985,000 平方英尺的租賃合同，續租時現金轉租價差為 23%。這些租賃交易大部分是與現有關係簽署的，我們也成功地抓住了新租戶的增量需求。截至年底，我們的營運投資組合的入住率為 97%。

Turning to Outpatient Medical. We had a strong finish to the year with 4.3% same-store growth, bringing full year growth to 3.4%, in line with the midpoint of our guidance range. Occupancy ended the year at 91% and our tenant retention was approximately 80%. Both metrics are reflective of our leading portfolio and platform. Finishing with CCRCs, same-store growth for the quarter increased 5%, bringing full year growth to 15.6%. 2023 was a record year of entrance fee sales and cash collection. These cash collections exceeded the amortized amount included in both FFO and AFFO by $40 million.

轉向門診醫療。我們以 4.3% 的同店成長率強勢結束了這一年，使全年成長率達到 3.4%，與我們指導範圍的中位數一致。截至年底，入住率為 91%，租戶保留率約為 80%。這兩個指標都反映了我們領先的產品組合和平台。算上 CCRC，本季同店成長率成長了 5%，全年成長率達 15.6%。 2023 年是入場費銷售和現金收取創紀錄的一年。這些現金回收金額超出了 FFO 和 AFFO 的攤銷金額 4000 萬美元。

Two quick items on our financial results before shifting gears to our 2024 outlook. For the fourth quarter, our Board declared a dividend of $0.30 per share. The dividend payment is forecast to remain the same post closing of the merger, which should provide us with incremental retained earnings in 2024. You probably also noticed that DOC filed an 8-K earlier this week with preliminary fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. They expect to complete their 10-K and other financial reporting on their normal time line in the next few weeks.

在轉向 2024 年展望之前，先簡單介紹一下我們的財務表現。我們的董事會宣布第四季度股息為每股 0.30 美元。預計合併完成後股息支付將保持不變，這將為我們在2024 年帶來增量留存收益。您可能還注意到，DOC 於本週早些時候提交了8-K，其中包含2023 年第四季度和全年的初步業績。他們預計將在接下來的幾週內按正常時間表完成 10-K 和其他財務報告。

Turning now to our combined outlook for 2024. Given our high degree of confidence the merger will close, coupled with the heavy lifting done by our respective teams to successfully integrate our forecasting, we are in a position to provide investors with an initial view of our combined 2024 outlook. However, critical items, including finalizing the GAAP merger adjustments will not occur until after the closing date. So we will make any necessary updates to our outlook and finalize guidance most likely in conjunction with our first quarter earnings.

現在轉向我們對2024 年的綜合展望。鑑於我們對合併將會完成充滿信心，加上我們各自團隊為成功整合我們的預測所做的繁重工作，我們能夠向投資者提供對我們的預測的初步看法。2024 年 綜合展望。然而，包括最終確定公認會計準則合併調整在內的關鍵事項要到截止日期之後才會發生。因此，我們將對我們的前景進行任何必要的更新，並最有可能與我們第一季的收益結合起來最終確定指導意見。

With all that said, our initial outlook for 2024 is as follows: FFO as adjusted ranging from $1.73 to $1.79 per share, which includes merger-related benefits of approximately $0.02 to $0.03. AFFO ranging from $1.50 to $1.56 per share which includes merger-related benefits of approximately $0.05. Total same-store growth ranging from positive 2.25% to positive 3.75%. Let me touch on some of the major items that underlie our outlook.

話雖如此，我們對 2024 年的初步展望如下：調整後的 FFO 範圍為每股 1.73 美元至 1.79 美元，其中包括約 0.02 美元至 0.03 美元的合併相關收益。 AFFO 範圍為每股 1.50 美元至 1.56 美元，其中包括約 0.05 美元的合併相關收益。同店總成長率從正 2.25% 到正 3.75% 不等。讓我談談構成我們前景的一些主要事項。

First, based on the March 1 closing date, our outlook is for 2 months stand-alone Healthpeak and 10 months combined Healthpeak and DOC. The result of this is a weighted average share count of approximately 690 million for full year 2024, assuming no additional equity issuances. Second, we have identified sources for all of our capital needs and have no remaining funding requirement in 2024. We upsized our 5-year term loan to $750 million and recently swapped the entire amount to a fixed rate of 4.5%.

首先，根據 3 月 1 日截止日期，我們對單獨 Healthpeak 的前景為 2 個月，對 Healthpeak 和 DOC 的綜合前景為 10 個月。假設沒有額外發行股票，2024 年全年的加權平均股數約為 6.9 億股。其次，我們已經確定了所有資本需求的來源，並且 2024 年沒有剩餘資金需求。我們將 5 年期定期貸款增加到 7.5 億美元，並最近將全部金額更換為 4.5% 的固定利率。

Last month, we closed on our well-received Callan Ridge joint venture, generating $130 million of proceeds and eliminating $22 million of future TI spend. We have $250 million of projected retained earnings given our well-covered dividend, and we expect some seller financing debt repayments. These proceeds will be used to fund our development and redevelopment pipeline, repay $210 million of DOC's private placement notes and fund all of our transaction costs. Third, G&A is expected to range from $95 million to $105 million, which compares to stand-alone Peak at approximately $95 million for full year 2023. All in, our G&A is only increasing by approximately $5 million at the midpoint despite inflation and our asset base increasing by $5 billion.

上個月，我們關閉了廣受好評的 Callan Ridge 合資企業，產生了 1.3 億美元的收益，並消除了 TI 未來 2,200 萬美元的支出。鑑於我們的股息支付良好，我們預計留存收益為 2.5 億美元，並且我們預計一些賣方將為償還債務提供融資。這些收益將用於資助我們的開發和再開發管道、償還 DOC 的 2.1 億美元私募票據並資助我們的所有交易成本。第三，G&A 預計在9500 萬美元到1.05 億美元之間，而2023 年全年的單獨峰值約為9500 萬美元。總而言之，儘管通貨膨脹和我們的資產，我們的G&A 在中點僅增加了約500 萬美元基數增加 50 億美元。

Fourth, our current FFO outlook includes a negative $0.03 mark-to-market on the $1.9 billion of DOC debt that we will assume. Notably, we do not add back this headwind to FFO as adjusted. Fifth, perhaps conservatively, we do not include any benefit from the Graphite Bio termination fee in our FFO as adjusted. Fixed item, the components of same-store growth are as follows: We see outpatient medical ranging from positive 2.5% to positive 3.5%. Fundamentals in outpatient medical continue to improve versus historical norms, including higher tenant retention, increased rent mark-to-market and increased escalators. Our outpatient medical same-store NOI for 2024 is approximately $825 million or 60% of the overall pool. We have included the DOC portfolio in our same-store pool for 2024, given the size and strategic nature of the merger.

第四，我們目前的 FFO 前景包括我們將承擔的 19 億美元的 DOC 債務按市值計為負 0.03 美元。值得注意的是，我們不會在調整後將此不利因素加回 FFO 中。第五，也許保守地說，我們不會將 Graphite Bio 終止費的任何收益納入調整後的 FFO 中。固定項目，同店成長的組成部分如下： 我們看到門診醫療成長從正2.5%到正3.5%不等。與歷史標準相比，門診醫療的基本面繼續改善，包括更高的租戶保留率、更高的市場租金和更多的自動扶梯。 2024 年，我們的門診醫療同店 NOI 約為 8.25 億美元，佔總收入的 60%。考慮到合併的規模和策略性質，我們已將 DOC 產品組合納入 2024 年的同店池中。

Turning to lab. We see same-store growth ranging from positive 1.5% to positive 3%. Lab growth is driven by contractual rent escalators, positive rent mark-to-market and the benefit of increased NOI from internalizing operations in San Francisco and San Diego. Not surprising, we do have some offsets, including a modest decline in occupancy relative to 2023 and timing of free rent, which naturally fluctuates year-to-year and is a headwind, particularly in the first quarter.

轉向實驗室。我們預計同店成長率從 1.5% 到 3% 不等。實驗室的成長是由合約租金自動扶梯、正向市場租金以及舊金山和聖地牙哥營運內部化帶來的 NOI 增加的好處所推動的。毫不奇怪，我們確實有一些抵消措施，包括相對 2023 年入住率小幅下降以及免費租金的時機，後者自然會逐年波動，並且是一個阻力，尤其是在第一季度。

Finishing with CCRCs, we continue to see growth in 2024 with a same-store outlook of positive 4% to positive 8%. I thought it would be helpful to finish with a high-level bridge of the major drivers in our outlook. Our outlook includes $40 million of synergies from the merger noting that a portion of these synergies are operational and flowing through NOI. We see approximately $30 million of year-over-year earnings benefit from same-store growth. And we see a positive $15 million benefit from development earnings, largely Vantage and Nexus plus the benefit from the Callan Ridge joint venture. So there are certainly a lot of tangible positive trends. But we are facing some headwinds.

最後，CCRC 預計將在 2024 年持續成長，同店前景為正 4% 至正 8%。我認為在我們的展望中以主要驅動因素的高層橋樑結束將會有所幫助。我們的展望包括合併帶來的 4,000 萬美元協同效應，並指出其中一部分協同效應是可操作的並透過 NOI 流動。我們預計同店成長將帶來約 3,000 萬美元的年收益。我們看到開發收益帶來了 1500 萬美元的正收益，主要是 Vantage 和 Nexus 以及 Callan Ridge 合資企業的收益。所以肯定有很多切實的正面趨勢。但我們面臨一些阻力。

Interest expense is forecast to increase $35 million due to a combination of rising interest rates as well as the aforementioned debt mark-to-market. There is an approximate $10 million earnings roll down due to some onetime security deposits received in our lab business in 2023 that are not forecast in 2024 plus dilution from potential seller financing debt repayment, which, although dilutive does provide capital to recycle into our core businesses. We have $40 million of a temporary decline in NOI at 2 marquee campuses that I wanted to spend a moment on.

由於利率上升以及上述債務以市價計價，利息支出預計將增加 3,500 萬美元。由於我們的實驗室業務在2023 年收到了一些一次性保證金（預計2024 年不會出現），再加上潛在賣方融資債務償還帶來的稀釋，因此收益下降了約1000 萬美元，儘管這會稀釋，但確實提供了資本循環到我們的核心業務。我們有 4000 萬美元的 NOI 暫時下降，在我想花點時間關注的 2 個大型園區。

First, there is $30 million of year-over-year decline in NOI from the well disclosed Amgen expiration at Oyster Point. The 323,000 of combined square footage across 3 assets is being put into redevelopment as we upgrade these assets to Class A product and multi-tenant buildings. We are rebranding the campus Portside at Oyster Point and substantially upgrading the amenity package and infrastructure in order to integrate the buildings more with (inaudible) creating a nearly 2 million square foot contiguous mega campus with leading life science tenants.

首先，由於廣泛披露的安進 (Amgen) 在 Oyster Point 到期，NOI 年比下降了 3000 萬美元。隨著我們將這些資產升級為 A 級產品和多租戶建築，三項資產的總面積達 323,000 平方英尺，正在投入重建。我們正在重新命名位於Oyster Point 的園區Portside，並大幅升級配套設施和基礎設施，以便將建築物與（聽不清）更多地整合起來，創建一個近200 萬平方英尺的連續巨型園區，擁有領先的生命科學租戶。

We have backfilled 101,000 square feet of the expirations already with our client lease, although we don't expect that lease to commence until the third quarter as we complete work to the base building and their suite. Second, after months of uncertainty, we have clarity on the Sorrento Therapeutics situation, although the lease rejections do result in a negative $10 million NOI impact in 2024. We have placed the 168,000 square foot Directors Place assets into redevelopment and are actively touring tenants through the buildings. There is a nice mark-to-market upside opportunity on this campus as we retenant the buildings, but the downtime is a headwind in 2024. In addition to the headwinds discussed already, we have included about $10 million in conservatism in our outlook for various items, including potential further capital recycling activities, proactive lease terminations and bad debt.

我們已經透過客戶租約回填了已經到期的 101,000 平方英尺，儘管我們預計租賃要到第三季度我們完成基礎建築及其套房的工作後才能開始。其次，經過數月的不確定性，我們對Sorrento Therapeutics 的情況有了清晰的認識，儘管租約被拒絕確實會在2024 年造成1,000 萬美元的NOI 負面影響。我們已將168,000 平方英尺的Directors Place 資產投入重建，並積極透過以下方式巡視租戶那些建築物。隨著我們重新租用這些建築，這個園區有一個很好的按市值計價的上行機會，但停工期是2024 年的一個阻力。除了已經討論過的阻力之外，我們還在對各種項目的展望中考慮了約1000 萬美元的保守主義因素。項目，包括潛在的進一步資本回收活動、主動終止租賃和壞賬。

In conclusion, while there are lots of puts and takes to our outlook, let me try and sum it up succinctly. Core operations are performing in line to perhaps better than expectation. Lab is not growing at the same rate as the last 10 years. Nothing grows to the sky in perpetuity, but we do like our market positioning and firmly believe we will outperform as sentiment and fundamentals improve.

總之，雖然我們對前景有很多看法，但讓我試著簡潔地總結一下。核心業務的表現可能好於預期。 Lab 的成長速度不如過去 10 年。沒有什麼東西可以永遠長到天上，但我們確實喜歡我們的市場定位，並堅信，隨著市場情緒和基本面的改善，我們將表現出色。

On the other side of the spectrum, Outpatient Medical is growing at a higher rate than historical averages as demand is outstripping supply, a key thesis in our merger with DOC combined with the improved capabilities and significant synergies. We have managed the balance sheet conservatively but like all REITs, we are not immune to rising rates nor can we avoid the required merger-related debt mark-to-market. And as we have consistently pointed out, we have 2 large marquee campuses undergoing significant repositioning. We have forecast the capital spend for these redevelopments in our 2024 plan, but none of the earnings upside. We are confident in our ability to recoup the lost NOI, but our base case assumption is lease commencements won't start at these projects until 2025 and beyond.

另一方面，由於需求超過供應，門診醫療的成長速度高於歷史平均水平，這是我們與 DOC 合併的關鍵論點，再加上能力的提高和顯著的協同效應。我們對資產負債表進行了保守管理，但與所有房地產投資信託基金一樣，我們不能免受利率上升的影響，也無法避免與合併相關的債務按市值計價。正如我們一直指出的那樣，我們有兩個大型校園正在進行重大重新定位。我們在 2024 年計畫中預測了這些重建項目的資本支出，但獲利並沒有成長。我們對收回損失的 NOI 充滿信心，但我們的基本假設是這些項目要到 2025 年及以後才會開始租賃。

If we can outperform that time line, then we will have further upside to our outlook. With that, let's open it up to Q&A.

如果我們能夠超越這個時間線，那麼我們的前景將有進一步的上升空間。接下來，讓我們開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Nick Yulico with Scotiabank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Nick Yulico。

I guess first question is just relating to the guidance. I appreciate all the info you gave us on the DOC impact plus some of the other year-over-year items. But is there any way to kind of think about what just legacy Peak FFO or AFFO growth would be year-over-year? Just putting aside sort of all the merger impacts, maybe just on like a percentage basis or pennies impact?

我想第一個問題只是跟指導有關。我感謝您向我們提供的有關 DOC 影響以及其他一些同比項目的所有資訊。但有沒有什麼方法可以考慮傳統 Peak FFO 或 AFFO 的年成長情況？只是拋開所有合併影響，也許只是按百分比或便士影響？

Yes. Nick, it's Pete here. Maybe I'll just start with AFFO. We did provide AFFO this year because of all the GAAP merger-related items, and we don't necessarily want to get mired into discussion on all of those on this call. But if you look at AFFO this year versus where we were last year, our outlook is effectively flat, but that does include the benefit of the synergies.

是的。尼克，我是皮特。也許我會從 AFFO 開始。由於所有 GAAP 合併相關項目，我們今年確實提供了 AFFO，而且我們不一定希望陷入本次電話會議上所有這些項目的討論中。但如果你看看今年的 AFFO 與去年的情況，我們的前景實際上持平，但這確實包括協同效應的好處。

If you try and back those out, you'd say our AFFO would be down year-over-year. That's actually a correct statement. And if you go back to the merger proxy, the S-4 we put out, you'd actually see that in our forecast as well. And that's really primarily because of the temporary lost NOI at the 2 large campuses I mentioned in the prepared remarks. So if were not for this merger, our AFFO would actually be down year-over-year, but Certainly, with the benefits of this merger, the accretion we've articulated being about $0.05 per share, we're able to keep our AFFO flat year-over-year.

如果你嘗試取消這些，你會說我們的 AFFO 會逐年下降。這實際上是一個正確的說法。如果你回到合併代理，也就是我們推出的 S-4，你實際上也會在我們的預測中看到這一點。這實際上主要是因為我在準備好的演講中提到的兩個大型校區暫時失去了 NOI。因此，如果沒有這次合併，我們的 AFFO 實際上會同比下降，但當然，有了這次合併的好處，我們所說的每股收益約為 0.05 美元，我們能夠保持我們的 AFFO同比持平。

Okay. That's helpful. I guess second question is just in terms of the lab business, if you can give maybe a little bit more feel for the leasing that you talked about that's in the pipeline right now. Kind of how the -- if any of that relates to San Diego plus how we should think about, I guess, the composition of what leasing would look like going forward from a maybe mark-to-market standpoint because I know that was impacted in the fourth quarter?

好的。這很有幫助。我想第二個問題只是在實驗室業務方面，您是否可以對您談到的目前正在醞釀中的租賃提供更多的感覺。我想，如果其中任何一個與聖地牙哥有關，加上我們應該如何考慮，從可能按市值計價的角度來看，未來租賃的組成會是什麼樣子，因為我知道這受到了影響第四季度？

Good question, Nick. I'm not surprised that you're asking it. We did disclose that we've signed year-to-date about 175,000 square feet of leases and LOIs. The first week of January is quite slow. So that's probably a pretty good 4-week number. If you annualize that, it's still trending in a positive direction as you compare it to a year ago where leasing was. I'll turn it actually to Scott Bohn to give a little bit more color on the composition of those leases and LOIs.

好問題，尼克。你問這個問題我並不感到驚訝。我們確實透露，今年迄今我們已經簽署了約 175,000 平方英尺的租約和意向書。一月的第一周非常緩慢。所以這可能是個相當不錯的 4 週數字。如果你將其按年計算，與一年前的租賃情況相比，它仍然朝著積極的方向發展。我實際上會將其交給 Scott Bohn，以便對這些租賃和意向書的構成提供更多的資訊。

Yes. Nick, this is Scott. On those LOIs, we're -- it's a multitude of deals. It's not just one large deal, really across all the markets. As we talked about over the past few quarters, the demand has really trended towards the kind of sub 30,000 square foot range, and that's where the bulk of those deals that are today. We're pretty happy with the economics that we are shaking out on those. When you look at mark-to-market on the portfolio, we were probably in the 20% range last year.

是的。尼克，這是史考特。在這些意向書上，我們有大量交易。這不僅僅是一件大事，而且涉及所有市場。正如我們在過去幾季所討論的那樣，需求確實趨向於 30,000 平方英尺以下的範圍，而這正是今天大部分交易的範圍。我們對我們在這些方面所取得的經濟效益感到非常滿意。當你查看投資組合的市價時，我們去年可能處於 20% 的範圍內。

If you look at it today, taking into account where we are probably more in the 5% to 10% range, but that varies greatly given the TI Capital and other aspects of the lease that are in play today. So hard to pin down an exact number because there's so much differentiation in the leases today. But I'd say, it's probably in the 5% to 10% range overall.

如果你今天看一下，考慮到我們可能更多地在 5% 到 10% 的範圍內，但考慮到 TI Capital 和當今正在發揮作用的租賃的其他方面，情況差異很大。很難確定確切的數字，因為當今的租賃存在很大差異。但我想說，總體來說可能在 5% 到 10% 的範圍內。

Your next question will come from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題將來自蒙特利爾銀行資本市場部的胡安·薩納布里亞 (Juan Sanabria)。

Just a question on dispositions. You talked about potential for more assets to come on the market. So just curious, if you could give a little bit more flavor for the types of assets that you may look to sell. Would they be kind of core, long-leased assets, stabilized or maybe more noncore assets. Just kind of curious on what may be being floated out there at this point in time.

只是一個關於處置的問題。您談到了更多資產進入市場的潛力。所以只是好奇，您是否能為您可能想要出售的資產類型提供更多風味。它們是核心資產、長期租賃資產、穩定資產還是更多的非核心資產？只是有點好奇此時此刻可能會發生什麼事。

Juan, it's Scott. I mean, obviously, we're not happy with where the stock is trading. There's a pretty big disconnect between what the private market would value our assets at and what the public markets would. So we're certainly looking at all available opportunities to create value. So I would say, it's a pretty wide-ranging menu of things that we're considering. If it's core assets like we did in San Diego a couple of weeks ago, it would be more likely than not kind of a recap where we maintain an ownership stake.

胡安，這是史考特。我的意思是，顯然我們對股票的交易情況不滿意。私人市場對我們資產的估值與公開市場的估值之間存在相當大的脫節。因此，我們當然會尋找所有可用的創造價值的機會。所以我想說，我們正在考慮的事情範圍相當廣泛。如果它是像我們幾週前在聖地牙哥所做的那樣的核心資產，那麼很可能是我們保留所有權股份的回顧。

We don't have a whole lot of sort of true noncore assets but we have less core assets that we could consider selling those may come at slightly higher cap rates than the print we had a couple of weeks ago in San Diego. That was obviously an A+ type asset in campus. But we're looking at a number of things. We've been saying that for the last year. We were a net seller of real estate in 2023. From where we sit here today, we'll probably be a net seller in 2024. But we have the ability to be price sensitive. Balance sheet is in great shape, sources and uses are spoken for. So we'd be price sensitive on anything that we do.

我們沒有大量真正的非核心資產，但我們的核心資產較少，我們可以考慮出售這些資產，這些資產的資本化率可能比我們幾週前在聖地牙哥的印刷品略高。這顯然是校園裡的 A+ 型資產。但我們正在考慮很多事情。去年我們一直這麼說。 2023 年，我們是房地產的淨賣家。從今天的情況來看，我們可能會在 2024 年成為房地產的淨賣家。但我們有能力對價格敏感。資產負債表狀況良好，來源和用途都有反映。因此，我們對所做的任何事情都會對價格敏感。

Great. And then hoping maybe you could talk to the -- maybe a question for Pete. The cadence of lab same-store growth, you mentioned there could be kind of a temporary drag in the first quarter. I believe you said free rent, I'm not sure. Lots of information, which is great. But just curious if you could talk about the cadence of expected growth for fiscal year '24.

偉大的。然後希望你能和皮特談談——也許是一個問題。您提到實驗室同店成長的節奏可能會在第一季受到暫時的拖累。我相信你說免租，我不確定。資訊量很大，太棒了。但只是好奇您能否談談 24 財年的預期成長節奏。

Yes. Sure, Juan. I think from an FFO perspective, I would say that the cadence, there's probably not a huge amount of variability as you look out across the 4 quarters in the year. I will say that some of these larger leases that are commencing in the first quarter for lab, especially some of the ones we've been pretty vocal about like the Voyager deal out in Boston that we did that commenced at the beginning of this month or January, I should say, beginning of the year as well as the RevMed deal. I mean, they just came with 3 months of free rent, and we have the MGM deal that we just commenced as they took over one of the Amgen buildings that expired.

是的。當然，胡安。我認為從 FFO 的角度來看，當你觀察一年中的 4 個季度時，節奏可能不會有很大的變化。我想說的是，其中一些較大的實驗室租賃合約將於第一季度開始，特別是我們一直在大聲疾呼的一些租賃合同，例如我們在本月初開始的在波士頓的 Voyager 交易，或者一月份，我應該說，年初以及RevMed 交易。我的意思是，他們剛剛提供了 3 個月的免租，我們剛開始與米高梅達成交易，因為他們接管了安進一棟過期的大樓。

So there's just a -- I'm not going to say there's a significant amount of additional free rent beyond what's market, but all of those leases are pretty sizable and commenced earlier this year. So it's just going to have a little bit of an impact on the first and second quarter same-store numbers relative to the overall guide. And that's really why I wanted to point that out. Some years free rent works in your favor, some years it doesn't. A little bit of a headwind this year in our number. But again, these are long-term leases with really high-quality tenants. So I just want to point out that same-store for lab will be a little bit weaker first half of the year versus second half.

因此，我不會說除了市場之外還有大量額外的免費租金，但所有這些租賃都相當可觀，並在今年稍早開始。因此，相對於整體指南，這只會對第一季和第二季的同店數量產生一點影響。這就是我想指出這一點的真正原因。有些年份免租金對您有利，有些年份則不然。今年我們的數字有點逆風。但同樣，這些都是與真正高品質租戶的長期租賃。所以我只想指出，今年上半年實驗室的同店業績將比下半年稍弱一些。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Griffin with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗集團的麥可‧格里芬。

I wanted to ask on the development pipeline. I noticed some of those projects were pushed out a couple of quarters relative to last quarter. Curious if you could give any color on why that's the case? Are there any worries about demand for those projects?

我想問一下開發流程。我注意到其中一些項目相對於上個季度被推遲了幾個季度。好奇您是否可以解釋為什麼會發生這種情況？這些項目的需求是否有擔憂？

Yes. Greg, it's Pete. I can certainly start with that. And I'll hit on the biggest ones. Vantage, we actually delivered a portion of that late last year. And then the initial occupancy is for what's remaining, and we do have another lease with Astellas that's expected to start later this year. So that's really the reason why that got pushed back a little bit. It's because we delivered a portion of that.

是的。格雷格，這是皮特。我當然可以從那裡開始。我會談到最大的。 Vantage，我們實際上在去年年底交付了其中的一部分。然後最初的入住是剩餘的，我們確實與安斯泰來簽訂了另一份租約，預計將於今年晚些時候開始。這就是為什麼這項計劃被推遲了一點的原因。這是因為我們交付了其中的一部分。

On Gateway, we have certainly talked about that at length over the last 6 to 9 months with the Sorrento situation. I mean, realistically, the way we look at it, even if we signed a lease today, between space planning and actually doing some of the work to do the specific TI build-out, I mean you're talking about 6 to 9 months before a lease can even commence. We don't have a lease signed at this point in time. So as a result, we did push that out a little bit. We're certainly touring tenants through the building and the facility. It's a really great looking, high-quality campus, A+ right there overlooking the 805. But as we look out, based upon how long it takes leases to get signed, that has actually slowed a little bit. we decided that it made sense to push that out just a couple of quarters.

在過去的 6 到 9 個月裡，我們確實在 Gateway 上詳細討論了索倫託的情況。我的意思是，實際上，我們看待它的方式，即使我們今天簽署了租約，在空間規劃和實際進行一些特定 TI 擴建工作之間，我的意思是您所說的是 6 到 9 個月在租賃開始之前。目前我們還沒有簽租約。因此，我們確實將其推遲了一點。我們當然會帶領租戶參觀大樓和設施。這是一個非常漂亮的高品質校園，A+就在那裡，俯瞰著805。但正如我們所看到的，根據租約簽署所需的時間，這實際上已經放緩了一點。我們認為將其推遲幾個季度是有意義的。

I don't know, Scott Bohn if there's anything you'd want to add to that.

史考特·博恩，我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的。

No, it's good, Pete.

不，這很好，皮特。

Great. Thanks. And then I just wanted to touch again on the synergies from the merger. You talked about realizing about $40 million to $60 million of that. It seems like the merger is going on pace or maybe even better than expected. Curious if you could see any additional upside kind of on top of that $60 million or if that's sort of the kind of highest level of synergies that you could see.

偉大的。謝謝。然後我想再談談合併帶來的綜效。您談到要實現其中約 4000 萬至 6000 萬美元。合併似乎正在按部就班地進行，甚至可能比預期的還要好。很好奇除了這 6000 萬美元之外，您是否還能看到任何額外的好處，或者這是否是您能看到的最高水平的協同效應。

Yes. Griff, I'll take that. It's Scott. In October, we talked about $40 million of year 1 run rate synergies, and we've got a full $40 million in our 2024 guidance. So I would say, we are ahead of expectations in year 1. So hopefully, we can exceed that number as well. In terms of year 2, we'll see. The internalization so far is going well, 3 markets down, 6 more in the queue, so we're taking them one at a time just to make sure that it goes well, reduce execution risk.

是的。格里夫，我會接受的。這是斯科特。 10 月份，我們討論了 4000 萬美元的第一年運行率協同效應，並且我們在 2024 年的指導中獲得了全額 4000 萬美元的協同效應。所以我想說，我們在第一年就超出了預期。所以希望我們也能超過這個數字。至於第二年，我們拭目以待。到目前為止，內部化進展順利，有 3 個市場下跌，還有 6 個市場正在排隊，所以我們一次只處理一個市場，只是為了確保一切順利，降低執行風險。

But if we're satisfied with the results, we could certainly continue to internalize more and more markets going forward and that would be a big part of achieving the high end, if not above the high end of that synergy range.

但如果我們對結果感到滿意，我們當然可以繼續內部化越來越多的市場，這將是實現高端的重要組成部分，如果不是高於協同範圍的高端的話。

Your next question comes from the line of Rich Anderson with Wedbush.

你的下一個問題來自里奇·安德森（Rich Anderson）和韋德布什（Wedbush）的對話。

So on the Amgen and Sorrento spaces, I think your -- the next time we'll see that in the numbers is 2026, correct me if I'm wrong. Is any one of the other sort of maybe faster to the punch. It sounds like Sorrento is a little bit more ready to use based on what your comments were. I'm just curious what the realistic time line is to see them back in cash paying assets?

因此，在安進（Amgen）和索倫托（Sorrento）領域，我認為下一次我們在數字中看到這一數字是 2026 年，如果我錯了，請糾正我。是否有其他類型的攻擊速度更快？根據您的評論，聽起來索倫托已經更適合使用了。我只是好奇看到他們恢復現金支付資產的實際時間是什麼？

Yes. I think, Rich, as you quoted 2 years, that's really more of a same-store figure. I would say from a lease-out perspective, as you pointed out, the 2 campuses. Sorrento, the scope of work is less significant on that than the scope of work on the port side project that we've rebranded. So I would say that we can finish the scope of work on Sorrento, and that's the Directors Place campus a lot quicker, and we'll actually finish the work on the portside campus.

是的。我認為，Rich，正如您引用的 2 年那樣，這實際上更像是同店數字。正如您所指出的，我想說的是，從租賃的角度來看，這兩個校區。索倫托，這方面的工作範圍不如我們重新命名的港口計畫的工作範圍重要。所以我想說，我們可以更快地完成索倫托（Directors Place）園區的工作範圍，而且我們實際上將完成左舷園區的工作。

So I would see NOI probably earlier from that campus if I were to give you some guidance between the 2 then I would from the port side campus. Although that said, you do have to bear in mind that we will actually commence that lease, the 101,000 square foot lease at Portside with client later this year. So we have backfilled some of that. We have not backfilled at this point any of the Sorrento campus, but we're certainly touring tenants through it.

因此，如果我要在這兩個校區之間為您提供一些指導，那麼我可能會更早地從該校區看到 NOI，然後我會從左舷校區看到。儘管如此，您必須記住，我們將在今年稍後與客戶實際開始租賃，即在 Portside 租賃 101,000 平方英尺的租賃合約。所以我們回填了其中的一些。目前我們還沒有回填任何索倫托園區，但我們肯定正在參觀租戶。

Can I add something to that? From my seat, like our lab business, even 2 years ago, we're essentially at 98%, 99% occupancy, essentially nothing in redevelopment and a completely pre-leased development pipeline. From where we sit today, we've got some upside in occupancy on the operating portfolio. Scott and Mike are working on. We've got a pretty big redevelopment bucket that has a lot of NOI upside and then a fair amount of development that hasn't been leased yet.

我可以添加一些東西嗎？從我的角度來看，就像我們的實驗室業務一樣，即使在兩年前，我們的入住率基本上達到了98%、99%，基本上沒有進行任何重建工作，並且擁有完全預租的開發管道。從我們今天的情況來看，我們的營運投資組合的入住率有一些上升的空間。斯科特和麥克正在研究。我們有一個相當大的重建項目，有很多 NOI 的上升空間，還有相當多的開發項目尚未出租。

So just on Amgen, Sorrento and Vantage alone, you're talking about $50 million, $60 million of NOI upside. I don't know if that's 25% or 26%, but we do think it's achievable. Those are all Class A assets. There's a cost of capital, so maybe subtract a little bit of that upside from an earnings standpoint but it's substantial. So our lab business 2 years ago was kind of hit full utilization, for lack of a better word. And today, there's a fair amount of upside for us to go recapture.

因此，僅就 Amgen、Sorrento 和 Vantage 而言，您就可以談論 5000 萬美元、6000 萬美元的 NOI 上漲空間。我不知道是 25% 還是 26%，但我們確實認為這是可以實現的。這些都是A類資產。這是有資本成本的，所以從盈利的角度來看，可能會減少一點這種上升空間，但它是巨大的。因此，我們的實驗室業務在兩年前就達到了充分利用，沒有更好的詞彙來形容。今天，我們有相當多的優勢可以重新奪回。

Okay. Yes, fair. Scott. The second question, shifting over to MOBs or outpatient medical, whatever we call them, so you guys are guiding to 3% same-store would combine with DOC. Your big pure play peer Healthcare Realty sees a path to same-store going up over the next couple of years beyond that through some occupancy lift and whatnot. I'm curious if you have a game plan of 3 -- sort of like that's your starting point, but do you see more growth out of medical office now representing the majority of your portfolio? Do you see more growth potential beyond that 3%, which has been sort of the legacy level of growth for medical office over the many several past years? Wondering where you see it going from here.

好的。是的，公平。斯科特.第二個問題，轉向 MOB 或門診醫療，無論我們怎麼稱呼它們，所以你們指導 3% 的同店將與 DOC 結合。你的大型純業務同業 Healthcare Realty 看到了未來幾年透過一些入住率提升等措施實現同店成長的途徑。我很好奇你是否有一個 3 的遊戲計劃 - 有點像你的起點，但你是否看到醫療辦公室現在代表了你投資組合的大部分增長？您是否認為 3% 之外還有更多的成長潛力（這是醫療辦公室過去幾年的遺留成長水準）？想知道你會看到它從這裡走向何方。

Yes. I mean it's really been a 2% to 3% growth business for the last decade. We do see that accelerating. It's not going to 10%, but we do think it's going to improve for the forward 5 to 10 years versus the previous 5 to 10 years, just given supply demand, construction cost and therefore, our ability to push rents. So our guidance this year is at the very high end, actually well above the high end of any guidance we've given in that segment historically.

是的。我的意思是，在過去十年中，該業務確實成長了 2% 到 3%。我們確實看到這種情況正在加速。它不會達到 10%，但我們確實認為，考慮到供應需求、建築成本以及我們推高租金的能力，未來 5 到 10 年的成長率將比過去 5 到 10 年有所改善。因此，我們今年的指導處於非常高端，實際上遠高於我們歷史上在該領域給出的任何指導的高端。

We have a pretty good track record of beating our same-store guidance and our earnings guidance. So you can assume that hopefully, there's some upside to the number that we gave. But it's a combination of occupancy. Obviously, we were up 40 basis points quarter-over-quarter, I think like 60 basis points year-over-year. All-time high re-leasing spreads, all-time high retention. So yes, we do think that there is some upside to the historical outpatient medical growth rate.

我們在超過同店指導和盈利指導方面有著良好的記錄。因此，您可以假設我們給出的數字有希望有一些上升空間。但這是佔用的組合。顯然，我們季度環比增長了 40 個基點，我認為同比增長了 60 個基點。再租賃價差創歷史新高，保留率創歷史新高。所以，是的，我們確實認為歷史門診醫療成長率有一些上升的空間。

How do you condition tenants to be okay with higher rents, right, because they've lived with this world and you got to be careful about sort of screwing up the system, so to speak. Is it there for the taking, you think? Or do you sort of have to sort of thread that needle?

你如何讓租戶接受更高的租金，對吧，因為他們已經生活在這個世界上，你必須小心，不要搞砸系統，可以這麼說。你認為它是可以拿走的嗎？或是你需要穿針線嗎？

Yes. And I'll ask John and Tom to comment as well. They're both here today.

是的。我也會請約翰和湯姆發表評論。他們今天都在這裡。

Yes. If you look at, Rich, the rents, I mean, we've seen -- what's actually benefited us is the new developments because the market rents that are coming in on those is typically 20% or so higher than what the existing rates are. So it gives us a little room to grow. And then if you look at our tenancy back 20 years ago, it was 25% hospital leases and 75% third-party physicians. Today, that number is 65% hospital. So you do have a little more ability to push the rents up when you're dealing with the institutions like that.

是的。 Rich，如果你看看租金，我的意思是，我們已經看到，真正使我們受益的是新開發項目，因為這些開發項目的市場租金通常比現有租金高出 20% 左右。 。所以它給了我們一點成長的空間。如果你看看 20 年前我們的租賃狀況，你會發現 25% 是醫院租賃，75% 是第三方醫生。如今，這一數字已達 65%。所以當你與這樣的機構打交道時，你確實有更多的能力推高租金。

John, if you have anything to add?

約翰，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. No, I agree with that, Tom. And I think we've seen 6 straight quarters of well above that in renewal spreads and then conditioning -- your comment about conditioning tenants, the options, as Tom said, historically was to go to a new building, but the rents now are 20% higher than the new building. So it's just -- it's much more, I guess, negotiating leverage. And if you're raising the rents 5% to 10%, that's better than the 20%, and that's the conditioning.

是的。不，我同意這一點，湯姆。我認為我們已經看到連續6 個季度的續租價差和空調水平遠高於這一水平- 您對空調租戶的評論，正如湯姆所說，歷史上的選擇是去一棟新建築，但現在的租金是20比新建築高%。所以我想這不僅僅是談判籌碼。如果你將租金提高 5% 到 10%，那就比 20% 好，這就是條件。

And then inflation increases, that's more important, I think, than the renewal spread right now, we're starting to get across the board annual increases that are fixed of 3% to 4% to 5%, people don't want to do inflationary CPI increases. So that just adds to that continuous stream. So it's more and more of the portfolio roles, more and more of the rents are going up 3%, 4%, 5% on renewal spreads and then you're adding a 3% to 4% annual increase. So the next 10 years, as Scott said, is very optimistic.

然後通貨膨脹增加，我認為這比現在的更新利差更重要，我們開始全面實行年度增長率，固定為 3% 到 4% 到 5%，人們不想這樣做通貨膨脹的CPI 上升。這樣就增加了連續的流。因此，越來越多的投資組合角色，越來越多的租金在續約價差上上漲 3%、4%、5%，然後每年增加 3% 到 4%。所以接下來的10年，正如斯科特所說，是非常樂觀的。

Your next question comes from the line of Wes Golladay with Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Wes Golladay 和 Baird 的對話。

Can you comment on what's going on with the pushout of collecting on the seller financing, if it was pushed out a few months?

如果賣家催收融資被延後了幾個月，您能評論一下延遲的情況嗎？

Yes. The seller financing, I mean, we actually did quite well off of providing that on our senior housing sales, which were 3, 4 years ago. So it's a business that we actually like if we provide the right LTV to the counterparty. With these loans, we've gotten repaid a lot over the last few years. I mean the balance was, I think, $600 million, $700 million. It was pretty high, down now to about $175 million. And our guidance for this year, call it, outlook, we had 0 to $100 million getting repaid. So $50 million at the midpoint, could be a little bit higher than that. And obviously, that's probably more front of the year weighted as well. I think our expectation is if it gets repaid, it will get repaid in the very near term, if not, it would get extended, which obviously, if it gets extended versus repaid, then there's an earnings benefit to that. But again, the expectation given where the LTVs of those are is that as the counterparty sell assets, we'd expect to get those loans repaid and probably more towards the front end of the year.

是的。我的意思是，賣方融資實際上在三、四年前的高級房屋銷售中提供了很好的資金。因此，如果我們向交易對手提供合適的 LTV，這就是我們真正喜歡的業務。透過這些貸款，我們在過去幾年中得到了很多償還。我的意思是，我認為餘額是 6 億美元、7 億美元。這個數字相當高，現在已降至約 1.75 億美元。我們今年的指導，稱之為展望，我們有 0 到 1 億美元的資金得到償還。因此，中間值 5000 萬美元可能會比這個數字高一點。顯然，這也可能是今年稍早的加權。我認為我們的期望是，如果它得到償還，它將在短期內得到償還，如果沒有，它會得到延長，顯然，如果它得到延長而不是償還，那麼就會有收益收益。但同樣，這些貸款的生命週期價值的預期是，隨著交易對手出售資產，我們預計將償還這些貸款，而且可能會在今年年底得到更多償還。

Okay. And then I guess, can you comment on maybe how the conversations are going on, on leasing lab space? I think you had a new lease just under 200,000 square feet in the fourth quarter. It looks like some good activity in the first half in January. And maybe there's a little bit of a lag effect, but there's been some M&A in this space. There's the biotech in that that's had nice balance. Any noticeable change in your conversations?

好的。然後我想，你能評論一下關於租賃實驗室空間的對話是如何進行的嗎？我認為您在第四季度獲得了不到 200,000 平方英尺的新租約。看起來一月上半月有一些不錯的活動。也許有一點滯後效應，但這個領域已經發生了一些併購。其中的生物技術具有很好的平衡性。你們的談話有什麼明顯的改變嗎？

Yes. Wes, this is Scott. Scott Bohn I think from a demand perspective, we're in line with pre-COVID levels across all 3 portfolios. Boards are still cautious, as Pete mentioned, is taking new space and expansions and things like that. We are seeing some groups who have been on the sidelines are kind of -- have been floating around in the market, really kind of starting to dig in on space plans and getting real as they approach funding at some of the capital markets, both private and public open up. So I think that we're off to a strong start for the year. We like the way that the pipeline is shaping up.

是的。韋斯，這是史考特。 Scott Bohn 我認為從需求角度來看，我們的所有 3 個投資組合都符合新冠疫情前的水平。正如皮特所提到的，董事會仍然持謹慎態度，正在採取新的空間和擴張等措施。我們看到一些一直在場外的團體一直在市場上徘徊，真正開始深入研究太空計劃，並在一些資本市場（包括私人資本市場）融資時變得現實。並公開開放。所以我認為我們今年有一個好的開始。我們喜歡管道的形成方式。

The underlying fundamentals that Scott mentioned in his prepared remarks are strong indicators of future demand.

斯科特在準備好的演講中提到的基本面是未來需求的強大指標。

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Kammert with Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 Jim Kammert 和 Evercore 的對話。

The Q&A is kind of built on some of this, but could you provide a little bit more detail regarding the $700 million to $800 million of development or redev and CapEx guidance that you provided because I ask you kind of reconcile to a known development and redevelopments and what remains to be spent. And even if that were all spent in '24, I think that's roughly half of kind of a $700 million kind of target. So is this other activity at [AOI], Vantage, Sorrento? If you could just help kind of what are the major components of that in terms of that total spend for '24, please?

問答是建立在其中的一些基礎上的，但是您能否提供有關您提供的7 億至8 億美元開發或重新開發和資本支出指導的更多細節，因為我要求您與已知的開發和再開發進行協調以及剩下的費用。即使這一切都在 24 年花掉，我認為這大約是 7 億美元目標的一半。這是索倫托 Vantage [AOI] 的其他活動嗎？如果您能幫忙說明一下 24 年總支出的主要組成部分是什麼？

Yes. Happy to take that, Jim. I mean, obviously, on the development side, we still have to finish out the Vantage project, which is pretty significant. We've also got some new HCA developments that are kicking off. I mean that's a great program for us, and we'd like to continue to recycle capital and keep that program going and the yields are starting to increase on that, which is great.

是的。很高興接受這個，吉姆。我的意思是，顯然，在開發方面，我們仍然需要完成 Vantage 項目，這非常重要。我們也啟動了一些新的 HCA 開發項目。我的意思是，這對我們來說是一個很棒的計劃，我們希望繼續回收資本並保持該計劃的進行，並且收益率開始增加，這很棒。

I'd say what has gone up pretty significantly year-over-year as you look at 2023 versus 2024 is the larger, redevelopment bucket. I mean we're still redeveloping our Point Grand campus. We've got another asset given the Astellas (inaudible) behind space there as they took on the lease at Vantage. So we've got another large building there. Plus we'll have the portside buildings go as well as Sorrento. So I'd say that the biggest components of that are finishing out the current development pipeline as well as the redevelopment ticking up. And that was always our expectation was that we would have to redevelop the specialty portside when those leases expired. I mean Amgen was on that campus for 20 years and really, we had to put 0 CapEx into that over that period of time. So we did really, really well on that investment. But 20 years later, there's some capital that has to go into that. Those are really the biggest drivers of that spend this year.

我想說，與 2024 年相比，2023 年同比增長相當顯著的是更大的重建項目。我的意思是，我們仍在重建 Point Grand 園區。鑑於安斯泰來（聽不清楚）在 Vantage 租用了那裡的空間，我們還有另一項資產。所以我們在那裡有另一棟大型建築。另外，我們還將拆除左舷建築以及索倫托。所以我想說，其中最重要的部分是完成目前的開發流程以及重新開發工作。我們一直期望的是，當這些租約到期時，我們將不得不重新開發專業港口。我的意思是安進在那個園區已經待了 20 年了，實際上，我們在那段時間必須投入 0 資本支出。所以我們在這項投資上做得非常非常好。但20年後，必須有一些資本投入其中。這些確實是今年支出的最大動力。

Yes, there's no new starts in lab in that forecast. There's a couple of new starts in outpatient medical. Some are from legacy Healthpeak, others from legacy DOC just commitments that were made in some cases, 2 years ago. Any new commitments, though on development, it's because the yields are attractive, 7%, 8%, highly pre-leased. So we continue to find those very attractive and would recycle capital so that we can go ahead and move forward with those.

是的，該預測中實驗室沒有新的啟動。門診醫療有一些新的開始。有些來自舊版 Healthpeak，有些則來自舊版 DOC，這些承諾只是 2 年前在某些情況下做出的承諾。任何新的承諾，儘管是在開發方面，都是因為收益率很有吸引力，7%、8%，高度預租。因此，我們繼續發現這些非常有吸引力，並且會回收資本，以便我們可以繼續前進。

Great. So basically, as this unfolds, the lease opportunity becomes more apparent, that's when those shift to become more explicit redevelopment or CIP activities, is what you're saying?

偉大的。所以基本上，隨著這種情況的展開，租賃機會變得更加明顯，那時這些機會就會轉變為更明確的再開發或 CIP 活動，這就是您的意思嗎？

Yes. Correct .

是的。正確的 。

That's fine. And secondly, if I could. You mentioned, I think, Scott Brinker that you're looking at all capital alternatives. What are the latest thoughts on the CCRC portfolio? Is that still a potential? Or is it still room to grow on the NOI and FFO contribution? Or is that nearing maturity that might be a capital event for you?

沒關係。其次，如果我可以的話。我認為斯科特·布林克 (Scott Brinker) 提到您正在考慮所有資本替代方案。關於 CCRC 投資組合的最新想法是什麼？這還有潛力嗎？或者 NOI 和 FFO 貢獻仍有成長空間嗎？或者說，即將成熟對你來說可能是個資本事件？

Yes, we're at 85% occupancy today. I would think we could get back into 90s. In that portfolio, it's performing well. We've got good assets, mostly in Florida, obviously, favorable supply/demand in that market for seniors, we've got a really good operating partner in LCS. We've got a really strong internal team overseeing it.

是的，我們今天的入住率為 85%。我想我們可以回到90年代。在該投資組合中，它表現良好。我們擁有良好的資產，主要是在佛羅裡達州，顯然，該市場對老年人有利的供需關係，我們在瀕海戰鬥艦領域擁有非常好的營運夥伴。我們有一個非常強大的內部團隊來監督它。

So we're not in a rush. At the same time, it really has no strategic overlap with our medical and lab businesses, which are highly complementary, same process and procedure, et cetera. So at some point, I think we will recycle. But to my comment earlier, would be price sensitive. We don't need to do anything. It's performing fine. We've got the team to run it, but the capital markets have just been too tight and soft to transact on a portfolio of that size, but we'll see if things start to open up in 2024.

所以我們並不著急。同時，它與我們的醫療和實驗室業務確實沒有策略重疊，它們具有高度互補性，相同的流程和程序等等。所以在某個時候，我認為我們會回收。但根據我之前的評論，價格敏感。我們不需要做任何事。它的表現很好。我們有一個團隊來運作它，但資本市場太緊張和疲軟，無法進行如此規模的投資組合交易，但我們將看看事情是否會在 2024 年開始開放。

Your next question comes from the line of Joshua Dennerlein with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Joshua Dennerlein。

Appreciate all the color around guidance. One quick question on that. I think you -- I think if I heard correctly, you're including DOC in your same-store medical office NOI outlook. If you strip out DOC from the 2024 same-store pool, what would the same-store MOB NOI growth look like?

欣賞指導周圍的所有顏色。對此有一個簡單的問題。我認為，如果我沒聽錯的話，您會將 DOC 納入同店醫療辦公室的 NOI 展望中。如果從 2024 年同店池中剔除 DOC，同店 MOB NOI 成長會是什麼樣子？

Yes, hard to say. We are getting the benefit of the internalization in the peak portfolio that we obviously would not have done absent the merger, so it comes hard to parse the 2 numbers. But I think we said historically, DOC has lower in-place escalators than Healthpeak, but that's converging over time as they sign new leases with, as John said, 3% or better escalators. So I'm guessing it'd be a little bit lower but not materially.

是的，很難說。我們正在從峰值投資組合的內部化中受益，如果沒有合併，我們顯然不會這樣做，因此很難解析這兩個數字。但我認為我們歷史上曾說過，DOC 的現有自動扶梯數量低於Healthpeak，但隨著時間的推移，隨著他們簽署新租約，使用3% 或更好的自動扶梯，這種情況正在趨同。所以我猜它會低一點，但不是實質的。

I think they said numerous times, their growth rate in 2023 was impacted by some unique asset specific events and proactive termination. So I would expect our growth rate to mirror or closely mirror the Healthpeak growth rate going forward.

我認為他們多次說過，他們 2023 年的成長率受到一些獨特的資產特定事件和主動終止的影響。因此，我預計我們的成長率將反映或密切反映 Healthpeak 未來的成長率。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe 1 different kind of question. Just you mentioned the stock price, you're not happy with it. Just kind of curious for your appetite for stock buybacks here.

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後可能是 1 個不同類型的問題。剛才你提到了股價，你對此並不滿意。只是有點好奇你對股票回購的興趣。

Yes. We did buy back some stock, albeit at a higher price 1 year, 1.5 years ago. And I would say that the response from the Street was pretty unenthusiastic to that. That said, we do put an authorization every quarter for stock issuance or buyback with our Board. And we're not at a level, I think, today, where we buy back stock, but certainly, it's something that we're paying attention to. We're certainly a long ways away from a level where we even consider issuing equity, which is why we're talking more about capital recycling.

是的。我們確實回購了一些股票，儘管價格比 1 年、1.5 年前要高。我想說的是，華爾街對此的反應相當不熱情。也就是說，我們確實每季都會向董事會授權發行或回購股票。我認為，今天我們還沒有達到回購股票的水平，但當然，這是我們正在關注的事情。當然，我們距離考慮發行股票的水平還有很長的路要走，這就是為什麼我們更多地談論資本回收。

So we have a buyback program in place. We don't need to file one. We still have $400-plus million of buyback we could do, but we're not going to look to lever up if we ever bought back shares, we would look to do something through capital recycling. But I think I'd probably just leave it at that, Josh.

因此，我們制定了回購計劃。我們不需要提交一份文件。我們仍然可以進行 4 億多美元的回購，但如果我們回購股票，我們不會尋求槓桿，我們會尋求透過資本回收來做一些事情。但我想我可能就這樣吧，喬希。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自邁克·穆勒 (Mike Mueller) 與摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的對話。

I know there are some moving parts with properties that are going into redevelopment. But can you give us a little more color, unless I missed it, in terms of the lab same-store NOI, what's embedded in there for occupancy and spreads for '24 compared to what you did, especially when the spread tightened in '23 .

我知道有一些活動部分的房產即將進行重建。但你能給我們多一點顏色嗎，除非我錯過了，就實驗室同店NOI 而言，與你所做的相比，24 年的入住率和利差中嵌入了什麼，特別是當利差在23 年收緊時。

Yes. Mike, it's Pete. I'll handle that. So obviously, our outlook is 1.5% to 3% positive. What are the positive drivers within that, I mean, obviously, you've got rent escalators, which tend to be on average in the low 3s. We've got some positive mark-to-market embedded in there on lease renewals that we do get done. And then as we've said, there's a little bit of internalization benefit as well. So I think if we just stop right there, we'd probably be 5% plus from a same-store growth perspective, Which actually would kind of mirror what's happened over the last 10 years. .

是的。麥克，是皮特。我會處理的。顯然，我們的前景樂觀為 1.5% 至 3%。其中積極的驅動因素是什麼，我的意思是，顯然，你有租金自動扶梯，平均價格往往在 3 歲以下。我們在續租方面嵌入了一些積極的按市價計價，我們確實已經完成了。正如我們所說，也有一些內部化的好處。因此，我認為，如果我們就此止步，從同店成長的角度來看，我們的成長率可能會超過 5%，這實際上反映了過去 10 年發生的情況。 。

That said, there are some offsets, which I think are pretty well known. We've got average occupancy will probably be in the low 96% area. So you compare that to where we were last year. That's probably 100-plus basis points decline, so a modest decline, but nevertheless a headwind. The free rent that I mentioned, some years, it's up; some years, it's down. It's up this year, but it certainly is a little bit of a headwind as well. And then as we always do, we have a little bit of bad debt cushion in order to provide ourselves with a little bit of flexibility depending upon what goes on within our tenant portfolio, that certainly improved pretty significantly year-over-year, but we still do include a little bit there.

也就是說，有一些補償，我認為這是眾所周知的。我們的平均入住率可能會在 96% 以下的區域。所以你將其與去年的情況進行比較。這可能是 100 多個基點的下降，所以下降幅度不大，但仍然是阻力。我提到的免租，有些年，漲了；有些年，漲了；有些年，漲了。幾年後，它就下降了。今年有所上升，但也確實存在一些阻力。然後，正如我們一貫所做的那樣，我們有一點壞帳緩衝，以便根據我們的租戶組合內的情況為自己提供一點靈活性，這肯定比去年同期有了相當大的改善，但我們仍然包括一點。

So when you take all the positives and you take all the headwinds kind of blends out to that 1.5% to 3%. I know it's not what it was for the last 10 years, but our stock price is also not where it was a couple of years ago as well. So it's certainly been factored into, I think, our valuation at this point of time.

因此，當你考慮所有的正面因素和所有的不利因素時，就會混合到 1.5% 到 3%。我知道現在已經不再是過去 10 年的樣子，但我們的股價也不再是幾年前的樣子了。因此，我認為，目前我們的估值肯定已考慮到這一點。

Sure. And maybe 1 follow-up, talk about positive spreads. Would you think that the spreads would be closer to what you were showing in 24 -- fourth quarter '24 or full year '23?

當然。也許還有 1 個後續行動，談論正利差。您是否認為利差會更接近您在 24 年（24 年第四季或 23 年全年）所顯示的情況？

No, the fourth quarter number was an outlier. I mean there may be select spaces within the portfolio that would have a negative renewal rate mark-to-market, but that was an outlier. I think 10-year-old TIs, the tenant that wanted to stay in the space with credit -- investment-grade credit, no downtime, no TI. So I mean that was a unique situation. I wouldn't expect a lot of those. .

不，第四季的數字是異常值。我的意思是，投資組合中可能有一些特定的空間按市值計價的續約率為負，但這是一個異常值。我認為是 10 歲的 TI，即想要憑藉信用留在該空間的租戶——投資級信用，沒有停機時間，沒有 TI。所以我的意思是這是一個獨特的情況。我沒想到會有很多這樣的事情。 。

Your next question comes from the line of Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho.

你的下一個問題來自維克拉姆·馬爾霍特拉 (Vikram Malhotra) 和瑞穗 (Mizuho) 的線路。

Just maybe first on CCRCs. I know you mentioned at some point, you might look to divest. But I was a bit surprised just I thought the growth would be higher, at least I was anticipating it and just looking at the outlook. I thought there would be a more sort of robust outlook. So maybe if you can just compare and contrast or just give a sense of if you're seeing something different from your earlier expectations?

也許首先是 CCRC。我知道你在某個時候提到過，你可能會考慮剝離。但我有點驚訝，因為我認為成長會更高，至少我是在預期它並只是專注於前景。我認為會有更強的前景。那麼，也許你可以只是進行比較和對比，或者只是給出一種感覺，看看你看到的東西是否與你之前的預期不同？

Yes. Well, we still see some occupancy growth in 2024. Rental rates will grow, but more in the mid-single digits as opposed to high single digits just given the fundamentals in that sector. Then obviously, we've had a huge benefit from contract labor coming down over the past 18 months. We're largely through that benefit. We have very little contract labor in the portfolio today. So you just lose a lot of that benefit in same store. So I mean, that's what's happening at the property level. And then obviously, our accounting for this asset class has an impact as well.

是的。嗯，我們仍然看到 2024 年入住率會有所增長。租金率將會增長，但考慮到該行業的基本面，更多是中個位數，而不是高個位數。顯然，過去 18 個月裡合約工的減少為我們帶來了巨大的好處。我們很大程度上受益於此好處。今天，我們的投資組合中的合約工很少。所以你只會在同一家商店失去很多好處。所以我的意思是，這就是房地產層面正在發生的事情。顯然，我們對此資產類別的會計處理也會產生影響。

Most of the income in this portfolio comes from the prepaid rents on the nonrefundable entry fee. That's usually more than 75% of the total NOI and we just have this GAAP accounting method that we amortize all the entry fees. And we're leaving roughly $40 million of earnings on the table relative to the cash NOI that's actually being generated. So unfortunately, our reporting for CCRCs does not really reflect the underlying performance of that asset class, but chalk that up to GAAP accounting, unfortunately.

此投資組合的大部分收入來自不可退還入場費的預付租金。這通常超過 NOI 總額的 75%，我們只是採用 GAAP 會計方法來攤銷所有入場費。相對於實際產生的現金 NOI，我們剩下約 4000 萬美元的收益。不幸的是，我們對 CCRC 的報告並沒有真正反映該資產類別的基本表現，而是將其歸因於 GAAP 會計。

Okay. That makes sense. And then you mentioned sort of relationships or key in MOBs and you've got a great HCA program. I'm just wondering 2 subparts to that. One, is there likelihood of the HCA program expanding, becoming bigger or other types of properties within HCA. And then second, just is there a pathway for similar programs with larger health systems?

好的。這就說得通了。然後你提到了 MOB 中的某種關係或關鍵，你就有了一個很棒的 HCA 計劃。我只是想知道其中的兩個子部分。第一，HCA 計劃是否有可能擴大、變大或在 HCA 內形成其他類型的財產。其次，是否有一個途徑可以在更大的衛生系統中實施類似的計畫？

The answer is yes across the port. I mean there's a massive opportunity to help these big health systems grow their outpatient network. I might ask John to comment specifically.

答案是肯定的，跨過港口。我的意思是，有巨大的機會來幫助這些大型健康系統發展其門診網絡。我可能會請約翰具體發表評論。

Yes. Vikram, I think you're aware, we've been doing this with Northside in Atlanta, have a project that's actually about to top out and further opportunities on the Northside pretty routinely. Same thing at -- we both -- both organizations have a great relationship with on (inaudible), and we continue to have development opportunities there as well to come, so standby. But those are just a couple of great examples and fantastic markets.

是的。 Vikram，我想你知道，我們一直在亞特蘭大的 Northside 做這件事，有一個項目實際上即將達到頂峰，並且經常在 Northside 提供更多機會。同樣的事情——我們倆——兩個組織都與on（聽不清楚）有很好的關係，我們也將繼續在那裡擁有發展機會，所以隨時待命。但這些只是幾個很好的例子和奇妙的市場。

Your next question will go from the line of Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題將由 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Austin Wurschmidt 提出。

Scott, you flagged the estimated mark-to-market on lab of 5% to 10%. I'm just curious how that compares to the lease expiration you have over the next several years? And I'm also curious if there's -- what sort of the variation between larger versus smaller requirements? You noted some strength in sort of that smaller segment requirements. So any detail would be helpful.

Scott，您標記了實驗室的估計市價為 5% 到 10%。我只是好奇這與您未來幾年的租約到期相比如何？我也很好奇，較大的需求與較小的需求之間是否有什麼樣的差異？您注意到較小細分市場需求的一些優勢。所以任何細節都會有幫助。

Yes, sure. On the mark-to-market, I think it's slightly lower in the very near term just with the Amgen leases rolling. It's kind of weighed down a little bit, those were relatively high rent that grew over that 20-year period that Pete mentioned. And then on the tenant demand side and leasing, we've talked about over the past several quarters, I mean, if you look across all 3 markets, the after demand probably somewhere between 60% to 75% of that is sub 30,000 square feet. So it's been really the strike zone for deals over the past 6 to 9 months.

是的，當然。就以市價計算，我認為隨著安進租賃的滾動，短期內它會略低。皮特提到的 20 年裡租金成長率相對較高，這有點壓力。然後在租戶需求方面和租賃方面，我們在過去幾個季度中已經討論過，我的意思是，如果你縱觀所有3 個市場，後期需求可能在60% 到75% 之間，其中面積低於30,000 平方英尺。因此，在過去的 6 到 9 個月裡，這裡確實是交易的熱門區域。

But even as we get into sort of '25 and '26, I mean, do you expect that still to be pretty muted? Or is there any opportunities? I know you guys have flagged in the past, I think '25 was going to be a little bit of a more attractive year. Like does that then reaccelerate still as we get into next year? Or has the gradual moderation in market rents sort of wiped away some of that upside?

但即使我們進入了 25 和 26 年，我的意思是，你認為這種情況仍然會很平靜嗎？或有什麼機會嗎？我知道你們過去已經表示了不滿，我認為 25 年將會是個更有吸引力的一年。當我們進入明年時，這種情況是否還會重新加速？或者市場租金的逐漸放緩是否抵消了部分上漲空間？

It's more of the former. '23 and '24 were more modest because of Amgen and it starts to pick up a lot more materially in '25 and thereafter. But keeping in mind, Scott's bigger picture comment that it is down year-over-year from what we would have said a year ago just because of market fundamentals. But this should be the low point on the mark-to-market, and then we'll gather some momentum into '25 and beyond.

前者較多。由於安進（Amgen）的存在，'23 和 '24 變得更加溫和，並且在 25 年及之後開始在物質上增加。但請記住，斯科特的大局評論稱，由於市場基本面的原因，這一數字比我們一年前所說的同比有所下降。但這應該是按市值計算的低點，然後我們將在 25 年及以後積聚一些動力。

That's helpful. And then you guys gave a little bit of color around sort of the thoughts around synergies. But I guess I'm just curious how much of that $40 million do you think kind of hits right out of the gate when the deal closes? And what is sort of that go-get for the balance of the year? How would you kind of break down the cadence of that? And then thinking about maybe what could end up getting pull forward even or even upside beyond maybe the high end of that? Just curious the latest thoughts.

這很有幫助。然後你們就協同效應的想法給了一些色彩。但我想我只是好奇，您認為交易完成後，這 4000 萬美元中有多少是立即到位的？今年剩餘時間的目標是什麼？你會如何打破這個節奏？然後思考什麼可能最終會推動甚至超越最高點？只是好奇最新的想法。

Yes. Austin, it's Pete. I keep hoping one of these days we'll open (inaudible) and see 5 thumbs up that are green, but it wasn't this quarter. Maybe it will be next quarter.

是的。奧斯汀，是皮特。我一直希望有一天我們能打開（聽不清楚）並看到 5 個綠色的豎起大拇指，但不是這個季度。也許是下個季度。

It just means you do.

這只是意味著你願意。

We certainly do. Look, on the synergy -- what I would say on the $40 million, we said the vast majority of that is actually on G&A savings, and we would expect to achieve pretty much all of that at closing. Some of those G&A savings are difficult. We have to have conversations with employees on our side. DOC has to have those on their side. Those conversations have been had, never fun, but I'd expect the vast majority of that to hit right away. As we talked about on the balance, on the internalization, most of that really is the 3 markets that we've said we've internalized already.

我們當然這樣做。看，關於協同效應——我要說的是 4000 萬美元，我們說其中絕大多數實際上是用於管理費用節省，我們預計在交易結束時幾乎能實現所有這些目標。其中一些管理費用節省是很困難的。我們必須與我們這邊的員工進行對話。 DOC 必須讓那些人站在他們這邊。這些對話已經進行過，從來都不是有趣的，但我希望其中的絕大多數會立即產生影響。正如我們談到的平衡、內部化，其中大部分確實是我們所說的已經內部化的 3 個市場。

So those are really tangible, but those will hit kind of quarterly as we get NOI benefits within our portfolio throughout the year. But again, we feel confident that we're going to hit all those numbers. That's why it's in our $40 million estimate that's really just 10 months as opposed to hitting that in a year. So hitting those numbers a little bit earlier on. As to the additional $20 million, I think those are really kind of 2025 numbers, and a lot of that is really internalization focused, although there could be a modest amount more of G&A. And where we sit today, we feel confident that we can hit those numbers. But again, those will be '25 numbers, and that will flow through to all the years beyond that. .

因此，這些確實是有形的，但隨著我們全年在投資組合中獲得 NOI 收益，這些將按季度發生。但我們再次堅信，我們將達到所有這些數字。這就是為什麼我們的 4000 萬美元預估實際上只需要 10 個月，而不是一年內就能達到。因此，請儘早達到這些數字。至於額外的 2000 萬美元，我認為這些確實是 2025 年的數字，其中許多確實是內部化的重點，儘管可能會有少量的一般管理費用。今天，我們對能夠達到這些數字充滿信心。但同樣，這些將是「25」的數字，並將延續到之後的所有年份。 。

Yes. No, that's great. Green thumbs on the answer. Appreciate the detail.

是的。不，那太好了。對答案持綠拇指。欣賞細節。

Our final question will come from the line of John Pawlowski with Green Street.

我們的最後一個問題將來自約翰·帕夫洛夫斯基（John Pawlowski）與格林街（Green Street）的對話。

I was hoping you can provide just a very rough range of disposition volume that you would look to close on this year if your public market valuation is still depressed.

我希望您能提供一個非常粗略的處置量範圍，如果您的公開市場估值仍然低迷，您希望今年完成該處置量。

I mean, it could be 0 if the market is tighter, it could be a couple of billion dollars if the market opens up. I mean, we'll see, John, we're having all sorts of discussions, but we have them. We've been saying that on a couple of quarters in a row of earnings call. So we'll just have to see how the market plays out. But there's a lot of active discussions across the portfolio today.

我的意思是，如果市場收緊，它可能是 0，如果市場開放，它可能是幾十億美元。我的意思是，約翰，我們會看到，我們正在進行各種各樣的討論，但我們已經進行了。我們在連續幾季的財報電話會議上都這麼說過。因此，我們只需要看看市場的表現如何。但今天整個投資組合有很多活躍的討論。

Okay. I know like the market's not completely liquid right now, but there's still such a massive gap in where your stock is trading and where you're able to close some deals, and I know not everything is going to trade at a low 5% cap rate. But even if it's well north of that, there -- it still seems like a very interesting trade right now to try to narrow the public to private valuation gap. So -- are you -- how much are you actively like on the market looking to sell right now in life science and (inaudible) lease.

好的。我知道現在市場的流動性並不完全，但是你的股票交易位置和你能夠完成一些交易的位置仍然存在巨大差距，而且我知道並非所有東西都會以 5% 的低上限進行交易速度。但即使遠高於這個水平，目前試圖縮小公共與私人估值差距似乎仍然是一個非常有趣的交易。那麼，您對生命科學和（聽不清楚）租賃領域目前在市場上尋求出售的積極程度有多少？

Yes. I don't really have a different answer than what I gave in active discussions across the portfolio. I mean it could be a very material number if the markets open up..

是的。與我在整個作品集的積極討論中給出的答案相比，我實際上沒有什麼不同的答案。我的意思是，如果市場開放，這可能是一個非常重要的數字。

Yes. I think the other thing I would add, John, is obviously, we don't have any acquisitions dialed into our forecast as well. And then on top of that, we did actually bake in, and hopefully, this was something that everyone got from our prepared remarks is that we have baked in potential dilution from if we wanted to sell noncore assets the likely use of proceeds immediately would be to repay debt, right? And that's got a dilutive impact to it. That's not to say that we're going to look to further delever. We'd like to recycle that capital over time into our core business segments, but we have dialed in some flexibility within our forecast to allow us to recycle capital.

是的。約翰，我想我要補充的另一件事顯然是，我們的預測中也沒有任何收購。最重要的是，我們確實進行了烘烤，希望每個人都從我們準備好的言論中得到了這一點，那就是我們已經烘烤了潛在的稀釋，如果我們想出售非核心資產，則可能立即使用收益還債吧？這對其產生了稀釋性影響。這並不是說我們將尋求進一步去槓桿化。我們希望隨著時間的推移將這些資本回收到我們的核心業務部門，但我們在預測中引入了一些靈活性，以便我們可以回收資本。

Okay. And maybe a follow-up. Can you just help us understand the 2 development starts $90 million. I know it's a small volume, but 7% to 8% development yield on a risk-adjusted basis seems pretty thin relative to again, where the stock is trading or even debt repayment, again, on a risk-adjusted basis. So why is development winning out of the use of proceeds right now?

好的。也許還有後續行動。您能幫我們了解一下二期開發案的起價為 9,000 萬美元嗎？我知道這是一個很小的數量，但在風險調整的基礎上 7% 到 8% 的開發收益率相對於股票交易甚至債務償還，在風險調整的基礎上似乎相當薄弱。那麼，為什麼現在的收益使用是發展的勝利呢？

Yes. I mean it's with a top partner in HCA. One of them is in Dallas, where we've had tremendous success. We've got assets on that campus. It's bursting at the seams. We're obviously highly pre-leased -- signing long-term leases with no CapEx for the foreseeable future. So the cash flow returns are still quite attractive in our view, and we're selling assets to fund it at an accretive level. So I still find those to be an attractive use of capital for our shareholders, John.

是的。我的意思是與 HCA 的頂級合作夥伴合作。其中之一是在達拉斯，我們在那裡取得了巨大的成功。我們在那個校園裡有資產。它在接縫處爆裂。我們顯然是高度預租的——簽署長期租約，在可預見的未來沒有資本支出。因此，在我們看來，現金流回報仍然相當有吸引力，我們正在出售資產，以在增值水平上為其提供資金。所以我仍然認為這些對我們的股東來說是一種有吸引力的資本用途，約翰。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Scott Brinker for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回 Scott Brinker 進行閉幕致詞。

Yes, I want to thank everybody for their interest. The team here is completely focused, hard at work on beating our earnings guidance again. I think we delivered really strong AFFO growth this year at more than 5%, we grew FFO more than 7% the year before that, and we expect to continue that. So in any of that, I appreciate you tuning in today, call with any questions. Thanks, everyone.

是的，我要感謝大家的興趣。這裡的團隊完全專注，並努力再次超越我們的獲利指引。我認為今年我們的 AFFO 成長非常強勁，超過 5%，前年 FFO 成長超過 7%，我們預計將繼續保持這一勢頭。因此，無論如何，我感謝您今天的收聽，如有任何問題請致電。感謝大家。

The conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

電話會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。