Pembina Pipeline Corp (PBA) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Pembina Pipeline Corporation 2021 First Quarter Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call -- conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Cameron Goldade, Pembina's Vice President, Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加彭比納管道公司 2021 年第一季業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的電話會議正在錄音。 （操作員指示）我現在想將會議交給今天的發言人，Pembina 資本市場副總裁 Cameron Goldade。請繼續。

Thank you, Crissy. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Pembina's conference call and webcast to review highlights from the first quarter of 2021. On the call with me today are Mick Dilger, President and Chief Executive Officer; Scott Burrows, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Harry Andersen, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Pipelines; Jaret Sprott, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Facilities; Stu Taylor, Senior Vice President, Marketing & New Ventures and Corporate Development Officer; and Janet Loduca, Senior Vice President, External Affairs and Chief Legal and Sustainability Officer.

謝謝你，克里西。大家早安，歡迎參加 Pembina 的電話會議和網路廣播，回顧 2021 年第一季的亮點。 Scott Burrows，資深副總裁兼財務長； Harry Andersen，管線部資深副總裁兼營運長； Jaret Sprott，設施資深副總裁暨營運長； Stu Taylor，行銷與新創企業資深副總裁兼企業發展長；以及對外事務高級副總裁兼首席法律和永續發展官珍妮特·洛杜卡 (Janet Loduca)。

I'd like to remind you that some of the comments made today may be forward-looking in nature and are based on Pembina's current expectations, estimates, judgments and projections. Forward-looking statements we may express or imply today are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Further, some of the information provided refers to non-GAAP measures. To learn more about these forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures please see the company's management discussion and analysis dated May 6, 2021, for the period ended March 31, 2021, which is available online at pembina.com and on both SEDAR and EDGAR. I will now turn things over to Mick to make some opening remarks.

我想提醒您，今天發表的一些評論可能具有前瞻性，並且基於 Pembina 目前的預期、估計、判斷和預測。我們今天可能表達或暗示的前瞻性陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，這可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。此外，所提供的一些資訊涉及非公認會計原則措施。要了解有關這些前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則衡量標準的更多信息，請參閱該公司截至2021 年3 月31 日止期間於2021 年5 月6 日進行的管理層討論和分析，該報告可在pembina.com 以及SEDAR 和埃德加。現在我會把事情交給米克做一些開場白。

Good morning, everybody. I hope you're all doing well and enjoying the recovery of our sector. As you may have noticed from the introduction and as we announced yesterday, Pembina has recently undertaken certain executive changes. Two of Pembina's long-standing officers; Paul Murphy, Senior Vice President and Corporate Services Officer; Jason Vion, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Pipelines, retired at the end of March. As a result of these retirements, Janet Loduca has been promoted to Senior Vice President, External Affairs and Chief Legal and Sustainability Officer; and Harry Andersen has been appointed to Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Pipelines. On behalf of everyone at Pembina, I congratulate Paul and Jason on their retirement and thank them for their decades-long contributions to Pembina's success. I congratulate both Harry and Janet, and I'm excited to work with them in their new roles.

大家早安。我希望你們一切順利並享受我們行業的復甦。您可能已經從介紹中註意到，正如我們昨天宣布的那樣，Pembina 最近進行了某些高階主管變更。彭比納的兩名長期任職官員； Paul Murphy，資深副總裁兼企業服務長； Pipelines 資深副總裁兼營運長 Jason Vion 於 3 月底退休。由於這些退休，珍妮特·洛杜卡 (Janet Loduca) 被晉升為負責對外事務的高級副總裁兼首席法律和可持續發展官； Harry Andersen 被任命為 Pipelines 資深副總裁兼營運長。我代表 Pembina 的所有人，祝賀 Paul 和 Jason 退休，並感謝他們數十年來為 Pembina 的成功做出的貢獻。我祝賀哈利和珍妮特，我很高興能與他們一起擔任新角色。

As Scott will discuss more fully in a moment that in the first quarter 2021, Pembina delivered strong financial and operating results, reflecting increased commodity prices and sales and rising volumes on many of the systems and facilities. As we have talked about for each of the past few quarters, we continue to see steady increases in physical volumes on our systems, and we actually reached prepandemic levels in April. With many systems previously operating near take-or-pay level throughout the second half of 2020, Pembina is beginning to realize the anticipated benefits of its operational leverage or torque, with incremental volumes providing higher margins. Stronger commodity prices also drove higher sales volumes and margins in our marketing business.

正如斯科特稍後將更全面地討論的那樣，Pembina 在 2021 年第一季度實現了強勁的財務和營運業績，反映出商品價格和銷售的增長以及許多系統和設施的銷量的增加。正如我們在過去幾個季度中所討論的那樣，我們系統上的物理量繼續穩步增長，實際上在 4 月就達到了大流行前的水平。由於許多系統之前在 2020 年下半年的營運接近照付不議的水平，Pembina 開始意識到其營運槓桿或扭矩的預期收益，增量產量提供了更高的利潤。大宗商品價格走強也推動了我們行銷業務的銷售和利潤率的提高。

Strong fundamentals in marketing were, however, offset by realized losses from our -- our hedging program. In conjunction with strong first quarter results, Pembina is celebrating a few recent developments. The first is the start-up of our Prince Rupert terminal, or PRT. Dry commissioning of PRT was completed in March, and we have begun loading propane onto vessels in April. So far, 2 vessels have departed PRT destined for international markets.

然而，行銷方面的強勁基本面被我們的對沖計劃所實現的損失所抵消。結合第一季的強勁業績，Pembina 正在慶祝最近的一些進展。第一個是魯珀特王子港航站樓 (PRT) 的啟動。 PRT 的乾調試已於 3 月完成，我們已於 4 月開始將丙烷裝載到船上。截至目前，已有2艘船離開PRT前往國際市場。

I'm also pleased to announce that we have entered into a 1-year agreement with a subsidiary of Mitsue, whereby they will purchase substantially all of the post commissioning cargoes shipped from PRT with the propane being primarily destined for Northeast Asia. It has been years in the making and the start of PRT represents a major step forward in providing new market solutions and helping add incremental value to the commodities our customer sell. Alongside Pembina's unit train capabilities, PRT will link the rest of our natural gas liquids infrastructure in Western Canada with growing demand markets throughout the world, with the majority of the increased value flowing to those customers within Pembina's marketing pool.

我還很高興地宣布，我們已與 Mitsue 的一家子公司簽訂了一項為期 1 年的協議，根據該協議，他們將購買從 PRT 運出的大部分調試後貨物，其中丙烷主要運往東北亞。經過多年的醞釀，PRT 的啟動代表著在提供新的市場解決方案和幫助為客戶銷售的商品增加增量價值方面向前邁出了重要一步。除了 Pembina 的單元列車能力之外，PRT 還將把我們在加拿大西部的其餘天然氣液體基礎設施與全球不斷增長的需求市場連接起來，大部分增加的價值將流向 Pembina 行銷池中的客戶。

PRT has been a real ESG success story as well. Working together with the community, government and First Nations, Pembina was able to transform and repurpose a contaminated site on Watson Island, B.C. and now moves propane off the West Coast. Pembina invested approximately $12 million in remediation activities, and together with the city of Prince Rupert, removed a toxic and abandoned pulp mill replacing it with key income-generating assets that will have lasting benefits for all stakeholders and that the community can be proud of.

PRT 也是一個真正的 ESG 成功故事。 Pembina 與社區、政府和原住民合作，對不列顛哥倫比亞省沃森島的一個污染場地進行了改造和再利用。現在將丙烷從西海岸轉移出去。 Pembina 投資約1,200 萬美元用於修復活動，並與魯珀特王子港市一起拆除了一座有毒的廢棄紙漿廠，代之以關鍵的創收資產，這些資產將為所有利益相關者帶來持久的利益，讓社區感到自豪。

Secondly, we are also pleased to have signed our first renewable power deal representing another concrete step towards delivering on Pembina's carbon stand by lowering the emission intensity of each of our businesses. We have signed a long-term 100-megawatt power purchase agreement, or PPA, with a subsidiary of TransAlta Corporation that supports development of 130-megawatt Garden Plain Wind project in Alberta. The PPA provides significant benefits to Pembina, including securing post -- sorry, cost competitive renewable energy and fixing the price for carbon of the power Pembina consumes. Further, the PPA is expected to generate approximately 135,000 tons of CO2 equivalent emission offsets annually or an estimated total of 1.8 million tons of C02 equivalent emissions offsets. Initially, Pembina will use the offsets to reduce its own emissions with the option to sell or bank future offsets for other uses. The combined emissions reductions available from the PPA and cogeneration facility currently being constructed at the Empress facilities represent approximately 7% of Pembina's 2019 reported greenhouse gas emissions.

其次，我們也很高興簽署了我們的第一份再生能源協議，這代表著透過降低我們每項業務的排放強度來實現 Pembina 碳立場的又一個具體步驟。我們與 TransAlta Corporation 的子公司簽署了長期 100 兆瓦電力採購協議 (PPA)，支持阿爾伯塔省 130 兆瓦 Garden Plain Wind 項目的開發。 PPA 為 Pembina 帶來了巨大的好處，包括確保具有成本競爭力的可再生能源以及固定 Pembina 所消耗電力的碳價格。此外，PPA預計每年產生約135,000噸CO2當量排放抵消，或估計總計180萬噸CO2當量排放抵消。最初，Pembina 將利用這些補償來減少自己的排放，並可以選擇出售或儲存未來的補償以供其他用途。 Empress 設施目前正在建造的購電協議和熱電聯產設施的綜合排放量約佔 Pembina 2019 年報告的溫室氣體排放量的 7%。

Pembina has committed to reducing the carbon intensity of each business it operates. And by the end of 2021, we'll have taken on concrete action in this area by publishing 5-year emission targets. Finally, Pembina, through its joint venture Veresen Midstream safely completed the start-up of the Hythe developments at the existing Hythe gas plant. After a challenging 2020, I'm pleased to see us deliver a strong start to the year with positive momentum developing on many fronts. With that, I'll pass it over to Scott.

Pembina 致力於降低其營運的每項業務的碳強度。 2021年底，我們將在這方面採取具體行動，並公佈5年排放目標。最後，Pembina 透過其合資企業 Veresen Midstream 安全地完成了現有 Hythe 天然氣工廠的 Hythe 開發項目的啟動。在經歷了充滿挑戰的 2020 年之後，我很高興看到我們在今年取得了良好的開局，在許多方面都呈現出積極的勢頭。有了這個，我會把它交給史考特。

Thanks, Mick. Pembina reported strong first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $835 million, consistent with the same period in the prior year. The first quarter was highlighted by increased marketed NGL volumes and higher margins on NGL and crude oil sales, combined with new assets placed into service and facilities and higher supply volumes at the Redwater Complex. These positive factors were largely offset by lower interruptible volumes on certain systems and pipelines, an increase in realized losses on commodity-related derivatives and higher general and administrative costs and other expenses, largely driven by an increased long-term incentives, offset by lower salaries and wages and lower acquisition-related costs. The increased mark-to-market and long-term incentives was driven by an increasing share price in the first quarter of 2021 compared to a decreasing share price in the first quarter of 2020.

謝謝，米克。 Pembina 公佈第一季調整後 EBITDA 強勁，達 8.35 億美元，與去年同期一致。第一季的亮點是液化天然氣銷售量的增加以及液化天然氣和原油銷售利潤的提高，加上服務和設施中的新資產以及紅水綜合體的供應量的增加。這些積極因素在很大程度上被某些系統和管道的可中斷量減少、商品相關衍生品的已實現損失增加以及一般和管理成本及其他費用增加所抵消，這主要是由於長期激勵措施的增加而被較低的工資所抵銷和工資以及較低的收購相關成本。以市值計價和長期激勵措施的增加是由於 2021 年第一季股價上漲（而 2020 年第一季股價下跌）所推動的。

Fundamentally, our marketing business was particularly strong this quarter, excluding the realized impact of commodity-related derivatives, first quarter adjusted EBITDA in marketing and new ventures improved $140 million or 368% relative to the first quarter of 2020 and $97 million or 120% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. The underlying marketing business improved significantly. However, our frac spread hedges and other commodity-related derivatives offset some of the increases. Pembina reported strong earnings in the first quarter of $320 million, consistent with the same period in the prior year. In addition to the factors positively impacting adjusted EBITDA, as I previously noted, earnings were positively impacted by a decrease in net finance costs due to lower foreign exchange losses. Earnings were also positively impacted by a decrease in current tax expense as a result of lower taxable income and a reduction in the Alberta corporate tax rate.

從根本上講，我們的行銷業務本季特別強勁，排除商品相關衍生品的已實現影響，第一季行銷與新企業調整後EBITDA 較2020 年第一季成長1.4 億美元，即368%，較2020 年第一季成長9,700 萬美元，即120%。然而，我們的壓裂價差對沖和其他大宗商品相關衍生性商品抵消了部分成長。 Pembina 公佈第一季獲利強勁，達 3.2 億美元，與去年同期持平。正如我之前指出的，除了對調整後 EBITDA 產生積極影響的因素之外，由於外匯損失減少，淨財務成本下降也對盈利產生了積極影響。應稅收入下降和艾伯塔省企業稅率降低導致當期稅收費用減少，也對盈利產生了積極影響。

Earnings were negatively impacted by an unrealized loss on commodity-related derivative financial instruments in the first quarter of the current year compared to significant gains in the first quarter of the prior year and a lower share of profit from Ruby. Total volumes was 3.5 million barrels per day in the first quarter, down only slightly from the same period in the prior year. Lower interruptible volumes in pipelines due to reduced upstream activity in 2020, partially offset by higher supply volumes at the Redwater Complex, higher seasonal volumes on Alliance pipeline and higher interruptible volumes on the Ruby pipeline. While volumes in the first quarter were down slightly over the first quarter last year, the real story, as Mick noted in his opening comments, steady rise in volumes over most of 2020 and now into 2021, with physical volumes in April reaching prepandemic levels.

與去年第一季的大幅收益相比，今年第一季商品相關衍生金融工具的未實現虧損以及 Ruby 的利潤份額較低，對盈利產生了負面影響。第一季總產量為 350 萬桶/日，僅比去年同期略有下降。由於 2020 年上游活動減少，管道可中斷量減少，但紅水綜合體供應量增加、Alliance 管道季節性量增加以及 Ruby 管道可中斷量增加部分抵消了這一影響。雖然第一季的交易量比去年第一季略有下降，但正如Mick 在開場白中指出的那樣，實際情況是，2020 年的大部分時間以及現在進入2021 年，交易量穩步上升，4 月份的實際交易量達到了大流行前的水平。

Given the year-to-date results and the outlook for the remainder of the year, Pembina is reiterating its previously disclosed 2021 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $3.2 billion to $3.4 billion. Pembina's 2021 capital program is fully funded by cash flow after dividends and towards the middle and upper end of the guidance range, excess cash flow will be available for debt reduction, dividend increases or opportunistic common share repurchases. During the first quarter of 2021, the timing of certain cash payments and receipts resulted in a draw on working capital and consequently, no excess discretionary cash flow was available. As the year progresses, Pembina will continue to assess the optimal allocation of excess discretionary cash flow based on the outlook for new capital investments beyond 2021 and the prevailing price of Pembina's common shares.

鑑於今年迄今的業績和今年剩餘時間的前景，Pembina 重申其先前披露的 2021 年調整後 EBITDA 指引，即 32 億美元至 34 億美元。 Pembina 的 2021 年資本計畫完全由股息後的現金流提供資金，接近指導範圍的中上端，多餘的現金流將可用於減少債務、增加股息或機會性普通股回購。 2021 年第一季度，某些現金支付和收款的時間安排導致營運資金消耗，因此沒有多餘的可自由支配現金流。隨著時間的推移，Pembina 將繼續根據 2021 年以後新資本投資的前景和 Pembina 普通股的現行價格評估超額可自由支配現金流的最佳配置。

Finally, I am pleased to note that last week, DBRS Limited upgraded its ratings to BBB high in respect of Pembina's senior unsecured medium-term notes. This upgrade further validates the strength of Pembina's balance sheet, something we have worked very diligently to maintain, in particular, over the past year. I'll now turn things over to Mick for his closing comments.

最後，我很高興地註意到，上週 DBRS Limited 將 Pembina 高級無抵押中期票據的評級提升至 BBB 高。此次升級進一步驗證了 Pembina 資產負債表的實力，這是我們特別在過去一年中非常努力維持的。現在我將把事情轉交給米克，讓他發表結束語。

Thanks, Scott. The improvement we have seen in commodity prices resulted in a strong first quarter, but it also supports our constructive view of the future activity in the WCSB. We continue to believe that a post-pandemic economic recovery will drive higher activity in the basin, which we believe is only beginning. Higher prices are allowing our producer customers to generate higher-than-expected cash flow which is currently driving the aggressive debt reduction and shareholder returns. Ultimately, we expect producer to sanction new drilling activity and Pembina is well positioned to capitalize on that activity. Particularly to serve growing volumes in the Northeast B.C. Montney and Alberta Duvernay areas. New infrastructure, including the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, LNG Canada, Enbridge's Line 3 replacement and Pembina's and other third-party NGL export terminals are expected to collectively improve relative pricing for Canadian hydrocarbons and support the future growth in the WCSB.

謝謝，斯科特。我們看到大宗商品價格的改善帶來了第一季的強勁表現，但這也支持了我們對 WCSB 未來活動的建設性看法。我們仍然相信，大流行後的經濟復甦將推動該盆地的經濟活動增加，而我們認為這才剛開始。較高的價格使我們的生產商客戶能夠產生高於預期的現金流，目前正在推動債務大幅削減和股東回報。最終，我們預計生產商將批准新的鑽探活動，而 Pembina 已做好充分利用活動的準備。特別是為了服務不列顛哥倫比亞省東北部不斷增長的數量。蒙特尼和阿爾伯塔杜韋爾內地區。新的基礎設施，包括跨山管道擴建、加拿大液化天然氣公司、Enbridge 的 3 號線更換以及 Pembina 和其他第三方 NGL 出口終端預計將共同改善加拿大碳氫化合物的相對定價，並支持 WCSB 的未來成長。

As well, the government of Alberta's continued and increasing support in commitments related to the petrochemical industry, including various incentive programs are expected to drive higher ethane, propane and butane demand in Western Canada. We have named these factors collectively Advantage Canada, and we expect them to generate ample opportunities for Pembina. These opportunities include the reactivation of the currently deferred Peace Pipeline Phase 8 and 9 expansions and the expansion of Prince Rupert terminal as well as our $4 billion portfolio of unsecured brownfield and greenfield projects. We continue to look at 2021 as a turnaround year with Pembina returning to its traditional growth trajectory by 2022.

此外，阿爾伯塔省政府對石化產業相關承諾的持續和不斷增加的支持，包括各種激勵計劃，預計將推動加拿大西部乙烷、丙烷和丁烷的需求增加。我們將這些因素統稱為“加拿大優勢”，我們預計它們將為彭比納創造充足的機會。這些機會包括重新啟動目前推遲的和平管道第 8 期和第 9 期擴建項目、魯珀特王子港碼頭擴建以及我們價值 40 億美元的無擔保棕地和綠地項目組合。我們繼續將 2021 年視為扭虧為盈的一年，Pembina 將在 2022 年恢復到傳統的成長軌跡。

Before we wrap things up, I want to inform you that once again this year, in light of current circumstances related to pandemic and associated health and travel restrictions, Pembina will not be holding its annual Investor Day in our typical May-June time slot. We continue to evaluate our options for holding this event either virtually or in person in the fall of this year. We do, however, hope you can join us for our annual meeting of shareholders, which will be held today at 2:00 p.m. Mountain Time, 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Again, this year, it will be a virtually-only meeting conducted via live audio webcast. Participants are recommended to register for the virtual webcast at least 10 minutes before the presentation start time. For further information on Pembina's virtual AGM, please visit the shareholder information page under the Investor Center tab at www.pembina.com. We would once again like to thank all of our stakeholders for their support. With that, we'll wrap things up. Operator, please go ahead and open the line.

在結束之前，我想再次通知您，鑑於當前與流行病相關的情況以及相關的健康和旅行限制，Pembina 將不會在我們通常的 5 月至 6 月時段舉辦年度投資者日。我們將繼續評估今年秋季以虛擬方式或親自舉辦活動的選擇。不過，我們確實希望您能夠參加我們的年度股東大會，該會議將於今天下午 2:00 舉行。山區時間，下午 4:00東部時間。今年，這將再次成為一場僅透過現場音訊網路直播進行的虛擬會議。建議參與者在演示開始時間前至少 10 分鐘註冊虛擬網路廣播。有關 Pembina 虛擬年度股東大會的更多信息，請訪問 www.pembina.com 投資者中心選項卡下的股東資訊頁面。我們再次感謝所有利害關係人的支持。至此，我們就結束了。接線員，請先開通線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Matt Taylor with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Matt Taylor 與 Tudor、Pickering、Holt & Co 的線路。

I wanted to start first with your bullish comments there on physical volume improvement and customer behavior. Can you help bridge the gap with what you're seeing and hearing from customers on new capital being put to work at the drill bit versus what investors are seeing in terms of producers still at maintenance levels? Is the torque you're seeing and expecting coming from certain areas or customers?

我想先談談您對實物量改善和客戶行為的樂觀評論。您能否幫助縮小您從客戶那裡看到和聽到的有關新資本投入使用的情況與投資者看到的仍處於維持水平的生產商之間的差距？您看到和期望的扭矩是否來自某些區域或客戶？

We're seeing growth in Northeast B.C. in the Cardium. Our NGL business volumes are quite good at Redwater. And so you're seeing it throughout. I mean, we did reach prepandemic levels in April. Certain areas, Drayton Valley being very strong. And of course, that all feeds our marketing business as well.

我們看到 BC 省東北部的成長在心。我們在 Redwater 的液化天然氣業務量相當不錯。所以你自始至終都看到了這一點。我的意思是，我們確實在四月達到了大流行前的水平。某些地區，德雷頓谷非常強大。當然，這一切也為我們的行銷業務提供了動力。

Okay. Great. And then just as a follow-up to that, too, it looks like your EBITDA guidance is predicated on levels compared to last year versus new growth. So can you just frame how this torque fits into that EBITDA guidance? And then -- and even potentially restarting projects?

好的。偉大的。然後，作為後續行動，您的 EBITDA 指導似乎是基於與去年相比的水平與新增長的比較。那麼您能否簡單說明一下該扭矩如何適應 EBITDA 指導？然後——甚至可能重新啟動專案？

When we set the guidance, we had a much different price deck. And I think most people on the globe would be pleasantly surprised that the price of oil is in the mid-60s, and propane price, I think, is $0.90 at Belvieu and gas prices are sneaking up on CAD 3 up here, CAD 2.70, I think it is. So we're seeing something we don't see very often, which is all 3 volume streams working at the same time. Normally, at least one isn't working or many times, 2 are not working, and we're seeing all 3 working. And so notwithstanding, I think the sense you have is people are mainly focused on debt reduction. I would agree with that. But people are starting to return to the drill bit quietly. And we think that will accelerate as people meet -- I'm reading the very lovely reports of our customers, and they're paying down debt in record amounts. And their share prices are going up, which makes me think they're only going to buy back their shares for so long before they return to growth.

當我們設定指導時，我們有一個非常不同的價格平台。我想世界上大多數人都會驚訝地發現石油價格在 60 年代中期，丙烷價格在 Belvieu 是 0.90 美元，而這裡的汽油價格卻悄悄上漲到 3 加元，2.70 加元，我覺得是這樣的。因此，我們看到了一些不常見的情況，即所有 3 個卷流同時工作。通常情況下，至少有一個不工作，或者很多時候有兩個不工作，而我們看到所有三個都工作。儘管如此，我認為你的感覺是人們主要專注於減少債務。我同意這一點。但人們開始悄悄回歸鑽頭。我們認為，隨著人們見面，這種情況將會加速——我正在閱讀我們客戶的非常可愛的報告，他們正在以創紀錄的金額償還債務。他們的股價正在上漲，這讓我認為他們只會在恢復成長之前回購股票這麼長時間。

And they've been we've been assessing where to grow. And so I think we can assume they know exactly how to maximize their capital deployment. We think that's coming later in the year and into next year. And we sit with still a good amount of capacity. We're just kind of breaking through that take-or-pay level. And it's going to go to us. So we are pretty excited about where we are in the first quarter. I mean, yes, we were slightly overhedged. I wouldn't do anything differently. We put on those hedges in the second wave of the pandemic, I think that was prudent. I think you guys pay us to be careful and we were. But a lot of those -- well, over half of our hedges were discretionary, not part of our nondiscretionary program. Those all end at the end of the quarter. And we're pretty optimistic being at prepandemic volumes and sensing the build starting to happen with -- if these prices keep up, it's going to get exciting.

我們一直在評估他們的成長方向。因此，我認為我們可以假設他們確切地知道如何最大化其資本配置。我們認為這將在今年晚些時候和明年發生。我們仍然擁有大量產能。我們剛剛突破了「照付不議」的水平。它將歸我們所有。因此，我們對第一季的情況感到非常興奮。我的意思是，是的，我們有點過度對沖了。我不會做任何不同的事情。我們在第二波疫情中採取了這些對沖措施，我認為這是謹慎的做法。我認為你們付錢給我們是為了讓我們小心，而我們確實做到了。但其中很多——好吧，我們一半以上的對沖都是可自由裁量的，而不是我們非可自由裁量計劃的一部分。這些都在季度末結束。我們對大流行前的銷量非常樂觀，並感覺到建造開始發生——如果這些價格保持不變，它將變得令人興奮。

Mick, maybe just to clarify your comments there, like my understanding is that guide is looking at 2020 levels, and if there's an incremental interruptible in the system or various other pieces of your business that see improvement. So is it really what you're framing here is torque that gets you to the top end of the guide and beyond as opposed to the level that looks achievable, at least from your base business perspective thus far this year?

米克，也許只是為了澄清您的評論，就像我的理解是，該指南正在考慮 2020 年的水平，以及系統或您的業務的其他各個部分是否有增量可中斷的情況得到改善。那麼，您在這裡所描述的扭矩是否真的能讓您達到指南的頂端並超越看起來可以達到的水平，至少從今年迄今為止的基本業務角度來看？

We thought long and hard about what we would say about the guidance range. I think it's just not prudent in the first quarter to be looking out to the fourth quarter. This is a very uncertain world. We're really pleased with where we are in the first quarter, both from a volume and from a pricing perspective. I think our marketing business is very well situated, but we just don't think it's prudent to predict in this world that you're going to go through the top end of the guidance range. So we've stayed in within the guidance range. We're comfortable there.

我們認真思考了關於指導範圍的內容。我認為在第一季展望第四季是不明智的。這是一個非常不確定的世界。無論是從銷售量還是從定價的角度來看，我們對第一季的表現非常滿意。我認為我們的行銷業務處於非常有利的位置，但我們認為在這個世界上預測您將達到指導範圍的上限並不明智。所以我們一直處於指導範圍內。我們在那裡很舒服。

Yes. Matt, maybe I'll just add a couple points of color. I think unhedged, the first quarter would have set us up nicely to move into the upper half of that range. Mick pointed out, obviously, we had some incremental discretionary hedges that lowered that a little bit. As we look forward, we're still facing a few headwinds like FX. Obviously, FX has come down pretty materially from the budget. And so that's a headwind. And you got to remember that the back half of the year, we'll see lower contributions from Ruby with those contracts generally rolling off midyear. Now I think that's offset by, as Mick said, the strong physical volumes throughout April. We've also seen the commodity curve generally been in backwardation through most of the year.

是的。馬特，也許我會添加一些顏色。我認為，如果不進行對沖，第一季我們就能很好地進入該範圍的上半部。米克指出，顯然，我們有一些增量的可自由支配的對沖，這稍微降低了一點。展望未來，我們仍然面臨一些像外匯這樣的阻力。顯然，外匯預算已大幅下降。所以這是一個逆風。你必須記住，今年下半年，我們會看到 Ruby 的貢獻較低，這些合約通常會在年中到期。現在，正如米克所說，我認為這被整個四月份強勁的實體交易量所抵消。我們也看到，商品曲線在一年中的大部分時間普遍處於現貨溢價狀態。

But every month, we move along, it tends to get pushed out a month or 2, so I think our view is that the commodity curve should continue to remain robust throughout the back half of the year. But that's slightly different than what the current forward curve is showing us in backwardation. And of course, we still have our focus from 2020 on maintaining costs and keeping those cost savings in 2021. So I think we're feeling pretty optimistic, but it's just a little too early in the year to revise guidance.

但每個月，我們都會前進，它往往會被推遲一兩個月，所以我認為我們的觀點是，大宗商品曲線應該在今年下半年繼續保持強勁。但這與目前的遠期曲線顯示的現貨溢價略有不同。當然，從 2020 年開始，我們的重點仍然是維持成本並在 2021 年保持這些成本節約。

Our next question comes from the line of -- from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet。

Just wanted to dive in, I guess, a little bit to the moving pieces here. I was wondering for hedging, if you could provide a bit more color on what's locked in for the back half of the year, just how much open versus hedged at this point? And how do those hedges look, I guess, relative to the strip? I mean, as you noted there, I think there was, what, $88 million of upside that would have been captured without hedging, and of course, it's prudent to hedge, but just trying to get a sense for how the back half of the year could look versus the current strip given your hedging book?

我想，只是想深入了解這裡的移動部分。我想知道對於對沖，您是否可以提供更多關於今年下半年鎖定的信息，目前開放與對沖的比例是多少？我猜這些樹籬相對於地帶看起來怎麼樣？我的意思是，正如您在那裡指出的那樣，我認為如果不進行對沖，本可以獲得 8800 萬美元的上漲空間，當然，對沖是謹慎的做法，但只是想了解後半部分的情況如何。考慮到您的對沖帳簿，今年可以與目前的條帶比較嗎？

I'll turn it over to Scott in a minute. The hedging program at the highest level is really just the nondiscretionary program that we have, which is kind of half of our NGL business and excluding Aux Sable. So we stopped the discretionary -- or sorry, the nondiscretionary part effective this quarter, realizing that commodity prices are looking much more robust than we anticipated, say, in the fourth quarter of last year. Scott, do you want to add anything to that?

我一會兒就把它交給斯科特。最高級別的對沖計劃實際上只是我們擁有的非全權委託計劃，這相當於我們 NGL 業務的一半（不包括 Aux Sable）。因此，我們停止了本季生效的可自由裁量——或者抱歉，非可自由裁量部分，因為我們意識到大宗商品價格看起來比我們去年第四季的預期要強勁得多。史考特，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes. Sure, Jeremy. When you look out, based on the current strip, we still have the frac spreads in place that we put in place in 2020. So those are obviously underwater. And again, just as a reminder, for the rest of the year, it's only on the frac spread business. The winter storage or Aux Sable are unhedged. Based on the current strip, we're looking at forecasted losses in the neighborhood of $20 million to $25 million, on the NGL side of the business.

是的。當然，傑里米。當你觀察時，根據目前的地帶，我們仍然保留著 2020 年實施的壓裂價差。再次提醒一下，在今年剩下的時間裡，它只涉及壓裂價差業務。冬季儲藏室或 Aux Sable 沒有對沖。根據目前的情況，我們預計液化天然氣業務的損失約為 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元。

Got it. That's helpful. And then with -- the corporate expense is a bit higher than what we expected this quarter. I guess, what should we be thinking about as a run rate? I appreciate there was some LTIP noise, some retirement noise in there that made it a bit higher, but just thinking about what's kind of normalized at this point?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，公司支出略高於我們本季的預期。我想，作為運行率，我們該考慮什麼？我很欣賞其中存在一些 LTIP 噪音、一些退休噪音，這使得它變得更高一些，但只是想一想此時的標準化是什麼？

Yes. Jeremy, I think in the first quarter, obviously, as you pointed out, there's the mark-to-market on some of the incentives. And by way of background, ease to provide a sensitivity that a $1 change in our share price is roughly $1 million of G&A, just as a sensitivity. And so with the share price going from $32 to $38 at quarter end, that obviously had an impact on the quarterly results. We also had some onetime consulting fees that we're working on as we work through some of our optimization initiatives. So there's a few -- there's a little bit of noise in the quarter. On the long run, we're probably looking at roughly $40 million per quarter -- sorry, yes, $40 million per quarter on the corporate costs.

是的。傑里米，我認為在第一季度，顯然，正如您所指出的，一些激勵措施是按市值計價的。作為背景，很容易提供一個敏感性，即我們的股價變化 1 美元大約相當於 100 萬美元的一般管理費用，就像敏感性一樣。因此，季末股價從 32 美元漲至 38 美元，顯然對季度業績產生了影響。當我們實施一些優化計劃時，我們也收取了一些一次性諮詢費用。所以這個季度有一些噪音。從長遠來看，我們可能會考慮每季約 4000 萬美元——抱歉，是的，每季公司成本為 4000 萬美元。

Got it. Okay. So it doesn't seem like corporate is really that different maybe than what you budgeted for the year? Because if I'm looking at just pipeline and facilities segment, that's $800 million for this quarter. And if I annualize that without even thinking about marketing, that gets you 3.2%, the bottom end of the range. And if you talk about the kind of the improved producer outlook branded there are some roll-offs, but it seems like quite well positioned within the range. So just wondering, is this first quarter kind of match your -- what you were expecting here? Or are there any kind of benefit that maybe wouldn't repeat in subsequent quarters?

知道了。好的。那麼，公司似乎與您今年的預算並沒有太大不同？因為如果我只考慮管道和設施部分，本季的收入為 8 億美元。如果我將其按年計算，甚至不考慮行銷，那就是 3.2%，即該範圍的最低值。如果你談論品牌生產商前景的改善，會有一些下滑，但似乎在該範圍內處於相當有利的位置。所以只是想知道，第一季是否符合您的期望？或者有什麼好處可能不會在後續幾季重複出現？

I think, again, I would just want to temper what I'm about to say that it's early in the year. But we think volumes are going to continue to build and marketing is going to continue to improve and that we'll be able to manage our G&A at kind of budgeted levels, which I think, is around $300 million total for the year.

我想，我只是想緩和一下我即將說的，現在還為時過早。但我們認為銷售量將繼續增加，行銷將繼續改善，我們將能夠在預算水準上管理我們的一般行政費用，我認為今年的總費用約為 3 億美元。

Yes. Jeremy, I should -- we just got to make sure we're talking apples-to-apples. My $40 million was roughly corporate. We also have, obviously, G&A within the businesses. So on an absolute basis, aggregate, it's about a $60 million to $65 million per quarter.

是的。傑里米，我應該——我們只需確保我們正在談論同類。我的 4000 萬美元大致上是公司的。顯然，我們的業務中也有一般行政費用。因此，從絕對數量來看，每季總計約 6,000 萬至 6,500 萬美元。

Our next question comes from the line of Ben Pham with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ben Pham。

On your wind project, you announced with TransAlta, I'm just curious, how do you weigh or consider the relative difference between building the win yourself versus getting somebody else to do it? Because you've done some of the co-gen stuff in-house. So I was curious how you look at that relative difference?

關於您與 TransAlta 宣布的風能項目，我只是很好奇，您如何權衡或考慮自己贏得勝利與讓其他人贏得勝利之間的相對差異？因為你們已經在內部完成了一些熱電聯產的工作。所以我很好奇你如何看待這種相對差異？

We just look at it like any other project. With that particular project, as you know, you may not know, we have a small wind project already that we got with Veresen. I think it's 20-megawatt project. We look at like any capital allocation decision. We're learning, we're studying it. We do have an option on that wind farm to participate up to 50%. But at this time, we've decided not to allocate our own capital to it. But we do have a huge demand of power. So we have big economies of scale. We can develop strategic relationships for wind power. And then we're leaving open the auction to participate in that and self-supply to a point. But at this point, it has not attracted capital. All right.

我們只是像其他項目一樣看待它。對於這個特定項目，如您所知，您可能不知道，我們已經與 Veresen 合作了一個小型風電項目。我認為這是一個20兆瓦的專案。我們看待任何資本配置決策。我們正在學習，我們正在研究。我們確實可以選擇參與該風電場高達 50% 的股權。但目前我們決定不將自己的資金投入其中。但我們確實有龐大的電力需求。所以我們有很大的規模經濟。我們可以發展風電戰略關係。然後我們將開放拍賣以參與其中並在一定程度上實現自我供應。但目前還沒有吸引到資本。好的。

And there is some reference to rising power costs in the quarter, so that's the Alberta power price. Can you remind me, is that -- do you recover that in your business? Does it win your EBITDA instead? And then maybe just an overall comment on inflationary pressures you're seeing any sort of protections you have there?

還有一些提到本季電力成本上漲，這就是艾伯塔省的電價。你能提醒我一下，那是——你在你的生意中恢復了這一點嗎？它會贏得你的 EBITDA 嗎？然後也許只是對通膨壓力的總體評論，您看到那裡有任何類型的保護措施嗎？

Yes. Generally, our variable costs, well, almost to a very large degree, our variable costs flow through. The only place they don't are in our extraction business, where -- like our straddle plants where we warehouse that power cost and that's one of the reasons we're building cogeneration at all of our big plants as we can lower, both our emissions and our -- and take kind of control over our future prices and have electricity aligned with gas pricing rather than with grid pricing.

是的。一般來說，我們的變動成本，嗯，幾乎在很大程度上，我們的變動成本會流動。唯一沒有的地方是我們的提取業務，就像我們的跨式工廠，我們儲存電力成本，這就是我們在所有大型工廠建造熱電聯產的原因之一，因為我們可以降低我們的電力成本。我們的—並對我們未來的價格進行某種程度的控制，並使電力與天然氣定價而不是與電網定價保持一致。

And then what about trade labor, steel, as you start to build the Peace expansion? Is there anything to consider on inflationary pressures potentially?

那麼當你開始建立和平擴張時，貿易勞動力、鋼鐵呢？對於潛在的通膨壓力，有什麼需要考慮的嗎？

Not right now. Really, the -- if you think back about our largest projects like Phase 7, we bought the steel prepandemic, so that was sitting -- the pipe was sitting in inventory, recall, we had invested about $300 million. That was largely for the tangibles. And so that was all hedged at yesteryear's pricing. And most of our big projects are completely locked in. So we locked a lot of that cost in at a very favorable time actually on the heels of Keystone XL being canceled. We -- our skilled staff locked in a bunch of costs on that, Harry?

不是現在。真的，如果你回想一下我們最大的項目，例如第七階段，我們在大流行前購買了鋼材，所以管道就放在庫存中，回想一下，我們投資了大約 3 億美元。這主要是為了有形資產。所以這一切都是按照去年的定價來避險的。我們的大多數大型專案都已完全鎖定。我們——我們熟練的員工為此鎖定了大量成本，哈利？

Then on the steel side -- that's a good answer, Mick. On the labor side, we're seeing, frankly, a really positive trend from our end. We have our contracts in place with 2 mainline contractors on the 2 spreads for say Phase 7, and we've seen really directionally good pricing on both the mainline contracting and then the HDDs that need to happen as well. So very happy with it as we sit here today.

然後是鋼鐵方面——這是一個很好的答案，米克。在勞動力方面，坦白說，我們看到了一個非常積極的趨勢。我們與 2 個主線承包商就第 7 階段的 2 個價差簽訂了合同，並且我們已經看到主線合同以及需要發生的 HDD 的定向良好定價。我們今天坐在這裡對此感到非常高興。

Your next question comes from the line of Linda Ezergailis with TD Securities.

您的下一個問題來自道明證券的 Linda Ezergailis。

I'm wondering, as we look at the energy transition, I think most people view some of the political and economic constraints is dictating the pace as to be more of an evolution than a revolution. But I'm wondering if there might be some opportunities to accelerate your journey through either potentially acquiring, divesting or repurposing certain parts of your business or assets. I'm thinking specifically of maybe carbon capture or hydrogen. And maybe even purchasing late-stage development technologies or expertise that you might not have currently. Can you comment on what you might be seeing out there that would kind of fill out some of the blank spaces in your long-term strategy and vision?

我想知道，當我們審視能源轉型時，我認為大多數人認為一些政治和經濟限制決定了能源轉型的步伐，更多的是一種演變，而不是一場革命。但我想知道是否有機會透過收購、剝離或重新利用您的業務或資產的某些部分來加速您的旅程。我正在特別考慮碳捕獲或氫。甚至可能購買您目前可能不具備的後期開發技術或專業知識。您能否評論一下您可能會看到哪些內容可以填補您長期策略和願景中的一些空白？

Sure, Linda. We're thinking a lot about that. We don't really think we bring anything to solar that -- what things does Pembina bring to solar, not much. To wind limited again. And hence, we're partnering with people rather than building wind ourselves. But when it comes to carbon capture, we are running a pilot at Redwater, that's early stages to capture the CO2 from Redwater to see how all that works. We do currently already produce hydrogen. So that's within the skill set. So the whole -- that whole field of electric generation from gas and then sequestering it and we're good at all parts of that. A carbon capture system is really an aiming train that we have and operate the transportation, I think, through pipes that speaks for itself.

當然，琳達。我們對此思考了很多。我們並不真正認為我們為太陽能帶來了任何東西——彭比納為太陽能帶來了什麼，不多。風再次受限。因此，我們與人們合作，而不是自己建造風能。但在碳捕獲方面，我們正在紅水進行試點，這是從紅水捕獲二氧化碳的早期階段，以了解所有這些是如何運作的。我們目前已經生產氫氣。所以這在技能範圍之內。所以整個——用天然氣發電然後將其封存的整個領域，我們擅長這方面的所有部分。我認為，碳捕獲系統實際上是我們擁有的瞄準列車，透過不言而喻的管道來操作運輸。

And then the injection, the industry has been injecting acid gas for decades. So we're really good at that. So we have all the skills. And you're right, we do have a great footprint, great right-of-way that we can leverage. So we're thinking a lot about that. And when you think about supplying CO2 to EORs, most of the great EOR targets are within our footprint. And so if -- whether we do it or someone else inject CO2 into the Cardium, which is one of the best reservoirs are up in Swan Hills or down in Bonnie Glen area. That all gets returned tripped on our facility. So we kind of have an advantage in that area, and we're -- it's one of the things to spending a lot of time on right now.

然後是注入，業界幾十年來一直在註入酸性氣體。所以我們真的很擅長。所以我們擁有所有的技能。你是對的，我們確實擁有可以利用的廣闊足跡和通行權。所以我們對此進行了很多思考。當您考慮向 EOR 供應二氧化碳時，大多數偉大的 EOR 目標都在我們的足跡範圍內。因此，無論我們這樣做還是其他人將二氧化碳注入 Cardium，Cardium 是最好的水庫之一，位於天鵝山 (Swan Hills) 上方或邦尼格倫 (Bonnie Glen) 地區下方。所有這些都被我們的設施絆倒了。所以我們在這個領域有一定的優勢，這是我們現在要花很多時間做的事情之一。

Maybe also on a slightly separate note. You mentioned that you're reviewing your hedging profile. There's a lot of change going on in the industry, and there's a lot of change in your asset mix as well with your recent LPG export capabilities being quite notable on that front. Can you talk about how the hedging might evolve to reflect all of these changes going on? And whether that might create opportunities to either increase your exposure as you integrate along the value chain to commodity prices or reconsider your financial guard yields and the level of contracting that's appropriate.

也許還有一個稍微獨立的說明。您提到您正在審查您的對沖設定檔。這個行業正在發生很多變化，您的資產組合也發生了許多變化，您最近的液化石油氣出口能力在這方面非常引人注目。您能否談談對沖可能如何演變以反映所有這些正在發生的變化？以及當您沿著價值鏈整合商品價格時，這是否會創造機會增加您的風險敞口，或重新考慮您的財務保障收益率和適當的合約水準。

We like our guardrail still. We just recently finished a strategy session with our Board. They're very supportive and I look forward to the AGM kind of reviewing all that this afternoon. But those guardrails served us really, really well. I mean, we pretty much hit our midpoint of our guidance and set -- if you zoom out, we actually had a record year for EBITDA last year, and that's really the diversification, the guardrails and all those things. So very pleased with how that served us. And sometimes, it bites you like with our first quarter hedging losses. But we get paid to produce steady and growing dividends, and we're good at that. And that's why people buy the stock. So we're going to keep going.

我們仍然喜歡我們的護欄。我們最近剛與董事會完成了一次策略會議。他們非常支持，我期待著年度股東大會今天下午對所有這些進行審查。但這些護欄對我們來說確實非常有用。我的意思是，我們幾乎達到了指導和設定的中點——如果你縮小範圍，我們去年的 EBITDA 確實創下了紀錄，這確實是多元化、護欄和所有這些東西。對我們的服務感到非常滿意。有時，我們第一季的對沖損失會讓你感到痛苦。但我們獲得報酬是為了產生穩定且不斷成長的股息，而我們很擅長這一點。這就是人們買股票的原因。所以我們要繼續下去。

As it relates to hedging and Rupert, recall, only 1/4 of those volumes are our proprietary volumes, 3 quarters through our marketing pool, our producer volumes. So they're the ones who are going to get this great pay price. We'll get some. They'll get a lot. And we differentiate ourselves, I think, from competition by bringing customers markets, customer volumes to markets rather than just our own. And that will start to flow through, and there's going to be some smiles on people's faces when they get the pay netback. So there isn't really a ton of incremental hedging to do there, on Rupert. From our perspective, it's just a nice diversification beyond Edmonton, Sarnia, Conway and Belvieu, just have this brand-new new market. And our offtaker reflects the way we want to go, it's to slowly go more global and have some demand for customers.

由於它涉及對沖和魯珀特，回想一下，這些數量中只有 1/4 是我們的專有數量，另外 3 個季度是透過我們的行銷池、我們的生產商數量。因此，他們將獲得如此豐厚的報酬。我們會得到一些。他們會得到很多。我認為，我們透過將客戶市場、客戶量帶入市場而不僅僅是我們自己的市場，從而使自己在競爭中脫穎而出。這將開始流動，當人們得到淨工資時，他們的臉上會露出一些微笑。因此，對於魯珀特來說，實際上並沒有大量的增量對沖要做。從我們的角度來看，這只是埃德蒙頓、薩尼亞、康威和貝爾維尤之外的一個很好的多元化，只是擁有這個全新的市場。我們的承購商反映了我們想要走的路，那就是慢慢走向全球化並對客戶有一些需求。

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Kwan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Robert Kwan。

To start with the conventional pipeline system. And first in the near term, you talked about record volumes in April. I'm just wondering if you can square up because I know you report revenue volumes, but how did physical volumes look in Q1? And how is that squaring up with your comments for April?

首先從傳統的管道系統開始。首先，在近期，您談到了四月份創紀錄的交易量。我只是想知道您是否可以進行調整，因為我知道您報告了收入量，但第一季的實際銷售量如何？這與您四月份的評論相符嗎？

Yes. So on a physical basis, Robert, I think we saw a pretty steady increase throughout the first quarter, especially in March, where we saw volumes just about get back to prepandemic volumes. We've seen that strength continue throughout April. In fact, April physical volumes were in the neighborhood of, call it, 2% to 3% above where we saw in March. And actually, April physical volumes on the conventional system, were almost back to all-time highs, in line with where we exited 2019. And in April, volumes were above where we saw any monthly volume in 2020. So we're continuing to see strengths on the conventional pipeline system.

是的。因此，從實際情況來看，羅伯特，我認為我們在整個第一季都看到了相當穩定的成長，特別是在三月份，我們看到銷量幾乎恢復到了大流行前的水平。我們看到這種勢頭在整個四月持續存在。事實上，4 月的實際成交量比 3 月的水平高出 2% 到 3% 左右。事實上，4 月份傳統系統的實際交易量幾乎回到了歷史最高水平，與2019 年退出時的水平一致。繼續了解傳統管道系統的優勢。

Yes. And just a reminder, Robert, like we're -- those are only attracting a small fixed cost burden. As you know, the variable costs flow through, and every barrel gathered is a barrel marketed. So we've got great torque here from this point forward.

是的。只是提醒一下，羅伯特，就像我們一樣——這些只會帶來很小的固定成本負擔。如您所知，可變成本會流動，收集的每一桶都是銷售的一桶。所以從現在開始我們已經獲得了很大的扭力。

And Mick, I think that's probably what you were getting at. So not only do you have the physical volumes on the pipeline system, but what percentage of those incremental volumes? Do you have that further torque of their feeding into Redwater, I'm not sure if the contractual take-or-pay levels are similar but as well, the ability for you to take that barrel and then make a bunch more money marketing in such.

米克，我想這可能就是你的意思。因此，您不僅在管道系統上擁有實體卷，而且還擁有這些增量卷的百分比是多少？你是否有進一步的扭矩將它們餵入紅水，我不確定合約上的照付不議水平是否相似，但同樣，你有能力拿走那桶，然後在這樣的營銷中賺更多的錢。

For oil, it's very highly correlated. Almost every role that we bring in is a barrel marketed, for NGL, not quite as much. But I think 1/4 of the barrels roughly coming out of the back end of Redwater belong to us as well as all the frac spread barrels, right, at Empress, at Taylor, and so there, we're fully exposed, and this is a good time to be exposed. Go ahead, Jaret.

對於石油來說，它的相關性非常高。幾乎我們引入的每個角色都是桶裝市場，但對 NGL 來說，情況就沒那麼嚴重了。但我認為大約從紅水後端出來的桶的 1/4 屬於我們，以及所有壓裂擴散桶，對吧，在 Empress，在泰勒，所以在那裡，我們完全暴露了，這個是暴露的好時機。繼續吧，賈雷特。

Robert, it's Jaret here. I just wanted to add that we're also seeing a fundamental shift on where our customers are ultimately drilling. They're moving away from that really volatile oil, very liquids-rich condensate into the gassier space with AECO and Chicago pricing staying strong. And with that, we're also seeing record 30-day and 180-day IPs on the gas side. Like, if you look at any reports now, they're just phenomenal rates, like $15 million, $20 million a day for a sustained period. So with that, what's not changing is the richness of the NGLs in the gas. So the more gas that we're seeing through our physical processing plants. I think roughly on a quarter-to-quarter, Q4 to Q1, we saw an incremental $200 million a day of physical volume going through our gas processing assets.

羅伯特，我是賈雷特。我只是想補充一點，我們也看到客戶最終鑽探地點發生了根本轉變。他們正在從真正揮發性的石油、液體含量豐富的凝析油轉向天然氣領域，而 AECO 和芝加哥的定價保持強勁。同時，我們也看到天然氣的 30 天和 180 天 IP 創紀錄。就像，如果你現在看任何報告，它們都是驚人的費率，例如持續一段時間每天 1500 萬美元、2000 萬美元。因此，天然氣中液化天然氣的豐富度並沒有改變。因此，我們透過物理加工廠看到的氣體越多。我認為，從第四季度大致到第一季度，我們的天然氣加工資產的實際交易量每天增加 2 億美元。

Obviously, with the frac spreads being very strong, we're seeing a lot of NGLs come. Obviously, those obviously flow through conventional into Redwater and then ultimately, through our marketing business, which that's kind of that torque that Mick was talking about. So you're seeing the 2 things, the change of the types of wells and the increase of the volume.

顯然，隨著壓裂價差非常強勁，我們看到大量液化天然氣出現。顯然，這些顯然通過傳統方式流入紅水，然後最終通過我們的營銷業務，這就是米克所說的那種扭矩。所以你會看到兩件事，井類型的變化和體積的增加。

Got it. Can you talk about within conventional as well the discussions that you are having with customers and specifically thinking about how you bring back Phases 8 and 9? You did mention that the customer contracts are still there. But can you also frame the discussions? Are you seeing any slippage now that caps is going forward? And if you have any comments as well with respect to the Northeast B.C. Connector project filing and what that might mean for you?

知道了。您能否談談您與客戶進行的常規討論以及具體考慮如何恢復第 8 階段和第 9 階段？您確實提到客戶合約仍然存在。但你也能框架討論嗎？現在上限正在推進，您是否看到任何下滑？如果您對 BC 省東北部還有任何意見連接器項目備案以及這對您意味著什麼？

We're advancing key conversations, Robert. And we'll stay with the guidance we provided earlier this year that by the second half of the year, we'll be able to say something about Phase 8, 9 as well as the Rupert expansion. But we are on track to make some comments like that later in the year. It's just a little bit too early.

我們正在推進關鍵對話，羅伯特。我們將堅持今年早些時候提供的指導，到今年下半年，我們將能夠談論第 8 期、第 9 期以及魯珀特擴建項目。但我們預計在今年稍後發表一些類似的評論。只是有點太早了。

Just generally speaking, are you seeing, though, the outlook is more of a rising tide or more of a zero-sum game?

但總的來說，您是否認為前景更多是水漲船高，還是更多零和遊戲？

We are very comfortable that we can announce those projects later in the year and that they'll be very well anchored.

我們很高興能夠在今年稍後宣布這些項目，並且它們將得到很好的錨定。

Robert, the way I think about it is it's really threefold. Jaret absolutely nailed it when he talked about HVP volumes started. So that's the first piece. We -- on the conventional system, we really started to see early in the first quarter, a rise in HVP volumes across all our systems. And then what came secondly was a corresponding rise in LVP volumes. And if you have a look at Drayton Valley in particular, they are just above in April prepandemic levels. So it's been really positive. The third thing we've been watching is we've been watching how volumes respond because we're right in about the middle of breakup. And the volumes have been really strong throughout the middle of breakup. And then the fourth thing is in our customer conversations, customers have been focused on getting to their take-or-pay levels during the first quarter. And conversations are now starting to return to additional volumes above that. So we feel really positive directionally for those 4 reasons, where we're going. And I think we also feel confident speaking into the mic, in the back half of the year in Phases 8 and 9.

羅伯特，我認為這實際上是三重的。當 Jaret 談論 HVP 磁碟區開始時，他絕對做到了這一點。這就是第一部分。在傳統系統上，我們確實在第一季初期就開始看到我們所有系統的 HVP 數量增加。其次是 LVP 交易量的相應成長。如果您特別關注德雷頓谷，您會發現它們僅高於四月份大流行前的水平。所以這確實是積極的。我們一直在關注的第三件事是我們一直在關注成交量的反應，因為我們正處於分手的中期。在分手期間，銷售量一直非常強勁。第四件事是在我們的客戶對話中，客戶一直專注於在第一季達到他們的照付不議的水平。現在，對話開始恢復到高於此水平的水平。因此，由於這四個原因，我們對我們的發展方向感到非常積極。我認為我們也對今年下半年的第 8 和第 9 階段的麥克風講話充滿信心。

Yes. The one intricacy that maybe people don't fully understand in Northeast B.C. is the system that reaches into the heart of NEBC is a cost of service system. And so as the customers fill that, their per unit tolls drop. And so that system gets ever more competitive. It used to be a pretty expensive system when PETRONAS anchored it, what, 5 years ago. And now it's getting super competitive as it fills and as we consider looping it for not a lot of money. So the customers up there are creating their own future and driving down their own fees. And so that's a key pipe, and it's a really key competitive advantage that customers have really created for themselves up there.

是的。不列顛哥倫比亞省東北部的人們可能不完全理解這一複雜性。 NEBC 的核心系統是服務成本系統。因此，當客戶滿足這個要求時，他們的單位通行費就會下降。因此該系統變得更具競爭力。五年前，當 PETRONAS 錨定它時，它曾經是一個相當昂貴的系統。現在它變得非常有競爭力，因為它已經滿了，而且我們考慮以不多的錢循環它。因此，那裡的客戶正在創造自己的未來並降低自己的費用。所以這是一個關鍵的管道，也是客戶真正為自己創造的一個真正關鍵的競爭優勢。

And then when you look at Northeast B.C., Robert, I think we all know that 2,000 and 3,000 or 5,000 barrels isn't going to do it. You have to have a material volume. And so we're working hard with those customers that have that, and we feel really confident directionally.

羅伯特，當你看看不列顛哥倫比亞省東北部時，我想我們都知道 2,000 桶、3,000 桶或 5,000 桶是不夠的。你必須有一個材料體積。因此，我們正在與那些擁有這種能力的客戶努力合作，我們對方向非常有信心。

Okay. And then just to finish here, any commentary, whether it's volumes and/or pricing, especially just comparing to the 2020 year just for the NGL year here?

好的。最後，有什麼評論嗎，無論是銷量和/還是定價，尤其是與 2020 年 NGL 年度相比？

Yes. I mean, I'll turn it over to Stu, yes, but I mean it's -- the pricing now is like way better than last year. I think I'm just trying to remember my AGM numbers, but I think it was $0.50 last year, and we're at $0.90, Belvieu. I think those were the numbers that I'm going to present this afternoon. So it's -- yes, gas prices are a little more. But you're talking $2 roughly to maybe $2.70. So you've got a double, let's call it, rounded a double on NGL pricing, and you've only got a 50% increase in gas pricing year-over-year. So that's a lot to us. So we're -- I don't know where exactly we're hitting to in terms of the full year, but we're way ahead of where we thought we'd be in the first quarter.

是的。我的意思是，我會把它交給斯圖，是的，但我的意思是——現在的定價比去年好得多。我想我只是想記住我的年度股東大會數字，但我想去年是 0.50 美元，而我們現在是 0.90 美元，Belvieu。我想這些就是我今天下午要介紹的數字。所以，是的，汽油價格有點高。但你說的大概是 2 美元到 2.70 美元。所以你有一個雙倍，我們可以這樣稱呼它，NGL 定價的四捨五入雙倍，而你的天然氣定價同比只增加了 50%。這對我們來說意義重大。所以我們——我不知道我們全年的具體目標是什麼，但我們遠遠領先於我們預期的第一季的水平。

Robert, I won't add a lot more. I think Mick's covered it. We had a great gas recontracting, our NGL recovery at our facilities when we're out securing gas. So we're really, really pleased where we are. I think we've already covered. We're seeing strong pricing. There will be some softening through the summer months as we go. But we are expecting to come back with very, very strong pricing in the fourth quarter. But across the board, some significant improvement over 2020 and excited about where we're going.

羅伯特，我不會再補充太多了。我認為米克已經涵蓋了它。當我們無法取得天然氣時，我們進行了一次很棒的天然氣再承包，我們的工廠進行了液化天然氣回收。所以我們真的非常非常高興我們現在的處境。我想我們已經介紹過了。我們看到強勁的定價。隨著夏季的到來，情況將會有所緩和。但我們預計第四季度的定價會非常非常強勁。但總體而言，與 2020 年相比，我們取得了一些重大進步，並對我們的發展方向感到興奮。

Right. And sorry, I was just asking about on the procurement side. Did you -- were you able to capture similar volumes and -- with headline NGL prices moving higher, are you seeing a similar in these percentage shifts in your procurement cost?

正確的。抱歉，我只是問採購方面的問題。您是否能夠獲得類似的數量，並且隨著整體液化天然氣價格上漲，您是否看到購買成本的這些百分比變化類似？

On the buy side.

在買方方面。

On the buy side, yes, we paid up obviously with the pricing going up there. But again, it's not substantially different. So we were very, very pleased with our procurement of the gas on the gas side of where we ended up.

在買方方面，是的，我們顯然已經支付了價格上漲的費用。但同樣，這並沒有本質上的不同。因此，我們對在我們最終的天然氣側採購天然氣感到非常非常滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Tillett with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的克里斯·蒂萊特。

I guess, maybe just to shift gears here a little bit. Can you talk about the progression of Phase 8 and 9, how the discussions are going there? And then the contracts that you have in place that you mentioned in the release, are those with new customers or are those sort of expansions of contracts with existing customers? Just curious to hear sort of an update on that.

我想，也許只是為了稍微改變一下。能談談第八階段和第九階段的進展嗎？然後，您在新聞稿中提到的合約是與新客戶簽訂的合同，還是與現有客戶簽訂的合約的擴展？只是好奇想聽聽這方面的最新消息。

We're doing the engineering for those projects. As you saw with Phase 7, we've kind of delaminated Phase 7 a little bit. I mean we took a lot of costs out of 7. A lot of it was outright savings, some of it was scope. And so we're getting a little forensic on 8, 9 and maybe 9 goes before 8, we'll see. So we're trying to mix and match that. The tricky part is you only get to put the pipe in the ground once. And so what size you put in. And that's kind of what we're waiting for with to see which remaining anchor tenants we can land, and that will drive the physical design. So we're carrying different options. But the original customers -- I mean, they're signed. So they remain in place. But there are some very exciting developments up in Northeast BC, I'm sure you're all aware of them, and we're working hard to capture those before we announce exactly what Phase 8 and 9 look like.

我們正在為這些項目進行工程設計。正如您在第七階段所看到的那樣，我們對第七階段進行了一些分層。我的意思是，我們從 7 項成本中節省了很多成本。所以我們對 8、9 進行了一些取證，也許 9 會先於 8，我們拭目以待。所以我們正在嘗試混合搭配。棘手的部分是你只能將管道放入地下一次。那麼你投入的規模是多少。所以我們有不同的選擇。但原來的客戶——我的意思是，他們已經簽約了。所以他們就留在原地。但 BC 省東北部有一些非常令人興奮的發展，我相信你們都知道它們，在我們宣布第 8 期和第 9 期的具體情況之前，我們正在努力捕捉這些進展。

Okay. And then obviously, you sort of need to know the sizing there before you can have a better grasp on capital expectations, but is there anything you might be able to tell us at this point in terms of where those might land relative to prior expectations?

好的。顯然，你需要先了解那裡的規模，然後才能更好地掌握資本預期，但在這一點上，你是否可以告訴我們這些資本預期相對於先前的預期可能會達到什麼水平？

I think that if things work out, we'll have possibly a lot more volume and a lot longer runway to growth there. That's kind of what we're seeing right now than we thought before. Jaret, go ahead.

我認為，如果一切順利，我們可能會在那裡擁有更多的銷量和更長的成長跑道。這就是我們現在所看到的，比我們之前想像的還要多。傑瑞特，繼續吧。

Well, I guess, Harry talked about -- Harry talked about some of the procurement, et cetera. Yes, there is inflationary pricing, but I think we're making excellent headway on driving down our overall diameter branch mile cost as well.

嗯，我想，哈利談到了——哈利談到了一些採購，等等。是的，存在通貨膨脹的定價，但我認為我們在降低總直徑分支英里成本方面也取得了巨大進展。

Yes. Let me summarize it by saying we believe NEBC is more exciting than we thought when we FID-ed at the first time.

是的。讓我總結一下，我們相信 NEBC 比我們第一次進行 FID 時想像的更令人興奮。

Okay. Great. And then I guess last one for me is obviously, the last 6 months have seen quite a bit of M&A activity in Western Canada, I guess, particularly and specifically in areas that are served by the Peace system. So would just be curious to know kind of your thoughts about where in that cycle you think we are today? And how you think the M&A impacts you guys moving forward?

好的。偉大的。然後我想對我來說最後一個顯然是，過去 6 個月在加拿大西部發生了相當多的併購活動，我想，特別是在和平系統服務的地區。所以我想知道您對我們今天所處的周期的看法？您認為併購對你們的前進有何影響？

Can you just specify what kind of M&A, you mean like loose assets, corporates or just in general?

您能否具體說明一下您指的是哪種類型的併購，例如鬆散資產、企業還是一般併購？

Yes, sort of all of the above, I guess.

是的，我想以上都是。

Sure. I mean, we're -- we've got a great value chain. And so we normally have kind of embedded advantages when it comes to loose asset purchases. We're always on the lookout there, of course. We've really focused through 2020 on our profitability, our return on invested capital. And I think the full impact of that will start to show in 2022. So we're still very focused on cost. And I think we took about $150 million out of our cost structure. Last year, we're working hard to maintain that. And so that's our primary focus. As our share price comes up, our currency improves, more things become possible. But we are right now focused more on profitability and that torque as we've been trying to message. When we fill off existing assets, it's almost infinite return, and we look absolutely outstanding, if we can improve our utilization, say, from 75%, 80% to 90% to keep our costs in check, we just sync, and that's our primary focus.

當然。我的意思是，我們擁有一條很棒的價值鏈。因此，在寬鬆的資產購買方面，我們通常具有某種內在的優勢。當然，我們總是在那裡留意。 2020 年我們真正關注的是我們的獲利能力和投資資本回報率。我認為其全面影響將於 2022 年開始顯現。我認為我們從成本結構中節省了大約 1.5 億美元。去年，我們正在努力維持這一點。這就是我們的首要關注。隨著我們的股價上漲，我們的貨幣升值，更多的事情變成可能。但我們現在更關注獲利能力和扭矩，正如我們一直試圖傳達的訊息。當我們填滿現有資產時，它幾乎是無限的回報，而且我們看起來絕對出色，如果我們能夠提高利用率，比如說從75%、80% 到90% 以控制我們的成本，我們只需同步，這就是我們的主要焦點。

Right. Okay. That's helpful. I think, I guess, maybe just to clarify, I meant more how has the upstream M&A impact your assets?

正確的。好的。這很有幫助。我想，我想，也許只是為了澄清，我的意思更多的是上游併購如何影響你的資產？

Positively, like we -- from a counterparty credit, we've seen -- like with the Arc70 merger, we had -- they became investment-grade, they became more capable. They've all taken their debt down, like I'm looking across the universe, everyone is just getting after their debt. I mean I looked at CNQ's released the other day and so that's really positive. We tend to see the biggest users who have huge plans. They like dealing with real pipe and -- that's in the ground that they know they can rely on. And so generally, not just from a financial guardrails perspective, but from a commercial perspective, people -- the biggest companies tend to transact with us. So we're pretty pleased with how that's working out.

積極的一面是，就像我們從交易對手信用中看到的那樣，就像我們在 Arc70 合併中看到的那樣，它們變得投資級，變得更有能力。他們都還清了債務，就像我放眼整個宇宙一樣，每個人都在追債。我的意思是，我看了前幾天發布的 CNQ，這確實是積極的。我們往往會看到最大的用戶有龐大的計劃。他們喜歡與真正的管道打交道——他們知道他們可以信賴地下的管道。一般來說，不僅從金融護欄的角度來看，而且從商業的角度來看，人們——最大的公司都傾向於與我們進行交易。所以我們對它的效果非常滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Catellier with CIBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 CIBC 資本市場部的 Robert Catellier。

You've answered most of my questions here. I'm just curious on the Ruby pipeline term loan that was repaid in April and any other financial support that might be needed going forward. What level of support is required from the owners to make those payments?

你已經在這裡回答了我的大部分問題。我只是對 4 月償還的 Ruby 管道定期貸款以及未來可能需要的任何其他財務支持感到好奇。業主需要什麼程度的支持才能支付這些款項？

Yes, Robert, you're correct. The Ruby pipeline term loan was repaid in April with funds at Ruby. There's no additional support required with Ruby from the owners.

是的，羅伯特，你是對的。 Ruby 管道定期貸款已於 4 月用 Ruby 的資金償還。 Ruby 不需要所有者提供額外的支援。

Okay. Great. And then just a clarification here, if the event we get a shutdown on Line 5, how that impacts your business? And what mitigation plans do you have in place? And specifically, is the Prince Rupert terminal and some of the other export options available on the NGL side now enough to effectively mitigate that with respect to any exposure you might have and any headwinds getting to your guidance?

好的。偉大的。這裡需要澄清一下，如果 5 號線停運，這會對您的業務產生什麼影響？您制定了哪些緩解計畫？具體來說，魯珀特王子港碼頭和 NGL 方面可用的其他一些出口選項現在是否足以有效緩解您可能面臨的任何風險以及對您的指導帶來的任何不利因素？

Robert, when we built the Empress fractionation facility, which came into service, we built it to make money, and it's making money. It's working great. But we also built it as a hedge in case eastbound volumes, West to East volumes ran into problems. And so we can rail out of that facility now, and we can rail to Sarnia, if we need to. That line shuts down, Sarnia is going to get pretty expensive, but we can get our product there still. But you're absolutely correct, we can also get those volumes elsewhere, whether it's south or west. So again, partially, we primarily built that to make money. But we also built it in a defensive way just in case this happens. So it would be terrible and unprecedented for this to occur. But we do have contingency plans in place. Stuart, anything to add?

羅伯特，當我們建造 Empress 分餾設施並投入使用時，我們建造它是為了賺錢，而且它正在賺錢。效果很好。但我們也將其作為對沖，以防東向運輸量、西向東運輸量遇到問題。所以我們現在可以用鐵路離開那個設施，如果需要的話，我們可以用鐵路前往薩尼亞。那條生產線關閉了，薩尼亞的價格將會變得相當昂貴，但我們仍然可以在那裡獲得我們的產品。但你是絕對正確的，我們也可以在其他地方獲得這些卷，無論是南部還是西部。再說一次，我們建造它的部分目的主要是為了賺錢。但我們也以防禦方式建構它，以防萬一發生這種情況。因此，如果發生這種情況，那將是可怕的、前所未有的。但我們確實有應急計劃。斯圖爾特，有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Just to add that Mick mentioned in Sarnia, look, we moved those volumes from West to East and frac them out there. But we also have a large storage position in Corunna with rail and trucking, inbound and outbound. So if -- in the unfortunate event that would happen, that asset would be highly coveted.

是的。只是補充一點，米克在薩尼亞提到的，看，我們將這些卷從西向東轉移並在那裡進行壓裂。但我們在拉科魯納也有大型倉儲設施，提供鐵路和卡車運輸、出境服務。因此，如果不幸發生這種情況，該資產將受到高度覬覦。

Okay. And then I just want to make sure I understand the risk transfer on the Mitsue agreement. It seems like most of its spread benefit seems to accrue to the -- to your marketing customers. So are you effectively on that piece of the business now sort of in the fee for service or in the tolling-type contractual arrangement?

好的。然後我只想確保我了解三江協議中的風險轉移。看起來它的大部分傳播收益似乎都歸於您的行銷客戶。那麼，您現在是否在收取服務費或收費類型的合約安排中有效地從事該業務？

Yes. The way the marketing pool works, Robert, is all of our volumes, including Pembina. So roughly 1/4 of the volumes are ours and 3/4 of the volumes we're the agent for. They get what we get. So we ship to Conway, we rail to Conway, we deduct the rail cost. If we take it through PRT, we deduct the toll at PRT and the rail cost. And so it's just 3/4 fee-for-service and 1/4 is proprietary to us. So it's kind of like -- that's the reason our marketing pool is so successful is that we have the greatest economies of scale in the sector to get to premium markets. And because we give our customers what we get. And so we're shoulder to shoulder, and that creates tremendous alignment. And we think it's the winning model.

是的。羅伯特，行銷池的運作方式是我們所有的捲，包括 Pembina。因此，大約 1/4 的捲數是我們的，3/4 的捲數是我們的代理人。他們得到我們得到的。所以我們海運到康威，我們鐵路到康威，我們扣除鐵路費用。如果我們透過 PRT 運輸，我們會扣除 PRT 的通行費和鐵路費用。因此，這只是 3/4 的服務費，1/4 是我們專有的。所以這有點像——這就是我們的行銷池如此成功的原因，因為我們擁有該行業最大的規模經濟來進入高端市場。因為我們給予客戶我們所得到的。所以我們肩並肩，這創造了巨大的一致性。我們認為這是獲勝的模式。

Yes. I appreciate that aspect of the model. I'm just curious on the Mitsue agreement. If you're still -- and the whole marketing pool as long as the spread to Asia or if Mitsue has Edmonton to the Asia spread?

是的。我很欣賞這個模型的這一方面。我只是對三江協議感到好奇。如果您仍然 - 以及整個行銷池只要傳播到亞洲，或者三江是否有埃德蒙頓到亞洲傳播？

It's the former, Robert, at this point in time. Like again, we deliver the product. We load the vessel and Mitsue is selling that product. And as Mick said, we're covering our costs for 75%, but it's essentially -- those barrels are selling into the Asian market at this point. And so that's how the deal struck with Mitsue.

現在是前者，羅伯特。再次，我們交付產品。我們裝船，三江正在銷售該產品。正如米克所說，我們承擔了 75% 的成本，但本質上，這些桶子此時正在銷往亞洲市場。就這樣，與三江的交易就這樣達成了。

Our next question comes from the line of Shneur Gershuni with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Shneur Gershuni。

Most of my questions have been asked and answered. I just wanted to come back to the 8 and 9 expansion for a second here. Is it -- in sort of listening to your responses to the various questions, I'm trying to wonder -- I'm trying to think about how to think about when it actually gets FID-ed whether you're fourth in goal or not. Just like if you're at the point where you're discussing scope and size and so forth, does that mean that we're pretty close to the point where you could FID it, and it's something that could be spent potentially in '21 or mostly in '22? Or am I misreading that? And it's probably going to still take some time just given the recovery in where it's at.

我的大部分問題都已被提出並得到解答。我只是想再次回到 8 和 9 擴充包。是不是——在聽你對各種問題的回答時，我試圖想知道——我試圖思考如何思考當它真正得到FID-ed時，你是否在進球中排名第四，或者不是。就像您正在討論範圍和規模等問題一樣，這是否意味著我們已經非常接近可以確定它的點，並且它可能會在 21 年投入使用或主要是在'22？還是我誤讀了？考慮到目前的復甦情況，可能還需要一些時間。

Consider we FID-ed those projects once already and then pulled them back. So they're very well understood from a rooting, regulatory perspective. It's just a matter of what is physically required, giving the rapid -- given the rapidly emerging picture in NEBC and what that price might look like. So we just need a little bit -- we're just measuring twice before we cut there. And we have some things we'd like to get done before we move that thing forward. Harry, anything to add there?

考慮一下我們已經對這些項目進行了 FID 一次，然後又將其撤回。因此，從根源和監管的角度來看，它們是很好理解的。這只是實際需求的問題，考慮到 NEBC 迅速出現的情況以及價格可能會是什麼樣子。所以我們只需要一點點——我們只需要測量兩次就可以了。在推進這件事之前，我們希望先完成一些事情。哈利，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think Mick hit the nail on the head. It's looking really, really good. I think, as Mick alluded to earlier in the call, you could probably see Phase 9 resanctioned earlier. But there's -- probably a twofold reality is how the industry and our producer community are thinking about what they need next has shifted slightly. So we are adjusting with them in the context of Phase 8 and 9. And then secondly, I believe, Mick and the team have talked about on the optimization process we're going through here. And that's resulted in clearly some optimization across our conventional business, and we're looking to take advantage of that initially before we spend money on new capital. So -- and I think it's safe to say some barrels freed up through our optimization process that has really helped that. So we're looking to fill that first. And then get into the new capital.

我認為米克說中了要害。看起來真的非常非常好。我認為，正如米克在電話會議早些時候提到的那樣，你可能會看到第 9 階段早些時候得到重新批准。但可能有一個雙重現實：產業和我們的生產者社群對他們下一步需要什麼的思考方式已經發生了輕微的變化。因此，我們正在第 8 階段和第 9 階段的背景下與他們進行調整。這顯然導致了我們傳統業務的一些優化，我們希望在花錢購買新資本之前先利用這一點。因此，我認為可以肯定地說，透過我們的優化過程釋放的一些桶子確實對此有所幫助。所以我們希望先填補這個空白。然後進入新都。

Yes. Just on that, we used to call that Phase 10, just for those who heard about Phase 10. So as we do kind of a sweeping review of our pipe and across the board, we realize Cochin has way more capacity embedded in it than we thought before, and we're already using a bunch of that incremental capacity with more to come. Peace, we've freed up tens of thousands of barrels a day through optimization. And again, with technology, we expect that to continue to improve. And so when you're -- let's just say, hypothetically, we could move 50,000 or 60,000 barrels a day, more down Peace, that obviously impacts our design. And so those things are all in an iteration right now, cross-referenced against what the demands and when those demands from customers will evolve in NEBC. So again, we're working it. We're optimistic we can say more about it in the second half of this year along with the Prince Rupert expansion.

是的。就這一點而言，我們曾經將其稱為“第10 階段”，僅供那些聽說過“第10 階段”的人使用。比我們大得多。放心，我們透過優化每天釋放了數萬桶。同樣，隨著技術的發展，我們預計這一情況將繼續改善。因此，假設我們每天可以運輸 50,000 或 60,000 桶石油，甚至更多地沿著和平線運輸，這顯然會影響我們的設計。因此，這些事情現在都在迭代中，與客戶的需求以及客戶的需求何時在 NEBC 中發展進行交叉引用。再說一遍，我們正在努力。我們樂觀地認為，隨著魯珀特王子港的擴建，我們可以在今年下半年對此進行更多討論。

If I can just clarify my understanding to your response there because it sounds very interesting. Are you essentially saying through the optimization process that you effectively been able to create essentially one of the phases synthetically? Is that sort of the way to think about it? So it sort of delays the need for some capital, but you can still actually capture the volumes and the associated cash flow. Is that the right way to be thinking about it?

如果我能澄清我對你的回應的理解，因為這聽起來很有趣。您是否實質上是說，透過優化過程，您實際上能夠有效地綜合創建其中一個階段？這是一種思考方式嗎？因此，這在某種程度上延遲了對一些資本的需求，但您仍然可以實際捕獲數量和相關的現金流。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

That is correct that we are creating parts of those phases through just getting more through the pipe. I mean, consider the -- if you kind of go back 5, 10 years, we've been building, building, building. We never had a pandemic to stop and look what these systems can actually do. And so we've had that time to engineer, reengineer, and we are producing that capacity synthetically at no cost throughout our systems or throughout our pipeline universe. We've never had that opportunity before. And so that is partially what led to Phase 7. We didn't have to build out all of Phase 7 because we realized Phase 7 optimized could move virtually as much capacity as all of Phase 7. So we took $150 million out of that cost estimate. So that is what is going on. And part of the reason that we're taking for our needs to say a pause for the cause to make sure we don't overcapitalize these assets. And all that leads to lower tolls for our customers.

這是正確的，我們只是透過管道獲取更多來創建這些階段的一部分。我的意思是，想想——如果你回顧 5 年、10 年前，我們一直在建造、建造、建造。我們從來沒有因為疫情而停下來看看這些系統到底能做什麼。因此，我們有時間進行設計、再設計，我們正在整個系統或整個管道領域免費綜合生產這種能力。我們以前從未有過這樣的機會。這就是導致第7 階段的部分原因。扣除了1.5 億美元估計。這就是正在發生的事情。我們需要暫停的部分原因是為了確保我們不會過度利用這些資產。所有這些都為我們的客戶帶來了更低的通行費。

A good way to look at it because Peace is obviously much more complicated system. The example Mick gave on Cochin is perfect. As when the team looked at Cochin, we were able to find 14,000 barrels a day that are flowing today that weren't flowing before with no capital.

這是一個很好的看待它的方式，因為和平顯然是一個複雜得多的系統。米克給科欽的例子是完美的。當團隊觀察科欽時，我們發現每天有 14,000 桶石油在流動，而之前沒有資金流動。

Right. Okay. Perfect. I really appreciate the color there. And I was just wondering if you can go back to the Prince Rupert expansion potential as well, too. I guess when I sort of think about the LPG demand in Asia, when I think about shipping, vessel rates have gone up as well also, which is indicative of the strength of that market there. Have you been able to handle some of the larger vessels? I think you were talking about an MGC. I can't remember what the names are correctly in -- is the demand there to easily expand? And it's something that is also potentially a float-in-roll type of expansion? And could the opportunity from a pricing perspective, be pretty strong just given the global market dynamics?

正確的。好的。完美的。我真的很欣賞那裡的顏色。我只是想知道您是否也可以回到魯珀特王子港的擴張潛力。我想，當我考慮亞洲的液化石油氣需求時，當我考慮航運時，船舶費率也有所上漲，這表明了該市場的實力。您能夠處理一些較大的船隻嗎？我認為您正在談論 MGC。我不記得這些名稱的正確含義了——那裡的需求是為了輕鬆擴展嗎？這也可能是一種浮動捲式擴張？考慮到全球市場動態，從定價角度來看，這個機會是否會相當強大？

100% of the demand is there right now. We could have sold a lot more than we did through our process. We're very pleased with Mitsue as a partner there. The question is, do we expand? If you recall, our original FID was put in a few more steers and upgrade the rail somewhat and kind of go from 25,000 to 40,000 barrels a day. And that's still a legitimate plan, and we're realizing that even though we're using the smaller handy-size ships, they are very handy. They can get into some really great niche markets, and Mitsue is helping us understand that.

現在100%的需求已經存在。我們本可以賣出比我們整個流程多得多的銷量。我們對 Mitsue 作為合作夥伴感到非常滿意。問題是，我們要擴張嗎？如果你還記得的話，我們最初的 FID 增加了一些轉向裝置，並對導軌進行了一定程度的升級，每天產量從 25,000 桶增加到 40,000 桶。這仍然是一個合法的計劃，我們意識到，即使我們使用的是較小的靈便型船舶，它們也非常方便。他們可以進入一些非常好的利基市場，三江正在幫助我們了解這一點。

So we may choose not to go to larger ship size because we can access niche markets that no one else can access in smaller markets. Hawaii, Alaska, South America, Mexico, they're very well suited for smaller cargoes because if you had a VLDC, they'd have to soft in Alaska, partially unload and then sails to Hawaii partially unload, and that's just not economic. So the handies aren't necessarily a liability. But that said, we have realized we can get the larger ships and the larger ships don't refrigerate on board, so we'd have to refrigerate onshore. That's a little more capital intensive. So we're studying those options right now. I think we have at least 2 options in parallel. Jaret, anything else?

因此，我們可能會選擇不採用更大的船舶尺寸，因為我們可以進入其他人無法在較小市場中進入的利基市場。夏威夷、阿拉斯加、南美洲、墨西哥，它們非常適合較小的貨物，因為如果你有一艘 VLDC，它們必須在阿拉斯加軟裝，部分卸載，然後航行到夏威夷部分卸載，這並不經濟。因此，便利並不一定是一種責任。但話雖如此，我們已經意識到我們可以得到更大的船隻，而更大的船隻不在船上冷藏，所以我們必須在岸上冷藏。這有點資本密集。所以我們現在正在研究這些選擇。我認為我們至少有兩個並行的選擇。傑瑞特，還有什麼嗎？

Yes. Just -- I would just add, like Mick said, customer demand is high. The relationship with the community of Prince Rupert, the port and the surrounding and business communities is excellent and just evaluating the 2 different work streams that stick with the handies and/or go from 150,000 to roughly 250,000 barrels per vessel. So just that works ongoing, and we expect to have that wrapped up mid- to later this year.

是的。只是——我想補充一點，就像米克所說，客戶的需求很高。與魯珀特王子港社區、港口及週邊地區和商業社區的關係非常好，只需評估 2 個不同的工作流程，這些工作流程堅持使用便利和/或每艘船從 150,000 桶到大約 250,000 桶。因此，這項工作正在進行中，我們預計將在今年中後期完成。

Your last question comes from the line of Patrick Kenny with National Bank.

你的最後一個問題來自國家銀行的派崔克肯尼。

Mick, just to clarify your comment there around providing more of a growth update in the second half of the year. Are you in live discussions today with shippers with respect to the timing and the need for building out incremental frac capacity, whether at Redwater or in the field in B.C. and perhaps dovetailing these discussions into rolling over whatever is left on the near-term contract expiries on Peace? Or is that simply your expectation as we step into the second half of the year?

米克，只是為了澄清您對下半年提供更多成長更新的評論。您今天是否正在與托運人就增加壓裂產能的時間和需求進行現場討論，無論是在 Redwater 還是在 BC 省的現場？或許可以將這些討論與和平協議近期到期的剩餘合約結合？或者這只是您在進入下半年時的期望？

We're in live discussions. Every single place in the value chain, whether it's processing, whether it's increases in what we need on Peace, filling Peace, filling Alliance, fractionation, it's soup to not -- we talked about Rupert. Things are coming around. And like when we say, we think we're going to be the Pembina of 2017 to 2019 in 2022, we believe that wholeheartedly that we'll get our capital program back to $1.5 billion to $2 billion a year. Without too much difficulty, we'll keep our costs flat. And we'll do a bunch of things that you know of, and we'll probably do a bunch of stuff that might surprise you, as we always have over the last decade. So we are feeling we've hit play, and we're emerging. So our morale is very good.

我們正在進行現場討論。價值鏈中的每一個地方，無論是加工，還是增加我們對和平的需求，填充和平，填充聯盟，分餾，這都是湯——我們談到了魯珀特。事情正在發生。就像我們說的，我們認為我們將在 2022 年成為 2017 年至 2019 年的 Pembina，我們全心全意地相信我們將使我們的資本計劃恢復到每年 15 億至 20 億美元。沒有太多困難，我們將保持成本不變。我們會做很多你知道的事情，我們可能會做很多會讓你感到驚訝的事情，就像過去十年我們一直在做的那樣。所以我們感覺我們已經開始發揮作用，並且正在崛起。所以我們的士氣非常好。

Okay. That's excellent. And then just maybe one last cleanup question. Back to the PPA with TransAlta, obviously, checks the ESG box nicely there. But given where power prices were in the quarter, are you now looking to ramp up your contracted power portfolio just as much from a financial standpoint? Or do you prefer to keep more of an open position as it relates to power costs?

好的。那太好了。也許還有最後一個清理問題。回到 TransAlta 的 PPA，顯然，它很好地檢查了 ESG 框架。但考慮到本季的電價，您現在是否希望從財務角度同樣擴大您的合約電力組合？或者您更願意保留更多的未平倉頭寸，因為這與電力成本有關？

It's mixed. We always have to be careful of how we do it. I mean, places like Empress where we bear all the cost for power. It's game on, and we're looking to contract a lot of that out. Places where we flow through, we have to be very mindful that we're making the best deal possible on behalf of our customers. So far, all the deals we're doing are to our account. We'll investigate going beyond that in the future. But this won't be the last PPA we do. We think it's a good part of the energy mix for us. And as you know, we do what we say. And when we say we're going to reduce the emission intensity of every business, we will do that. We're just not going to make grandiose claims about 2050 when we have no idea how to get there. That's not who we are.

這是混合的。我們必須始終小心我們的做法。我的意思是，像皇后鎮這樣的地方，我們承擔所有電力成本。遊戲已經開始，我們希望將其中的大部分內容外包出去。在我們經過的地方，我們必須非常注意，我們正在為客戶提供盡可能最好的交易。到目前為止，我們所做的所有交易都是到我們的帳戶。我們將來會調查更多內容。但這不會是我們最後一次簽訂購電協議。我們認為這是我們能源結構的重要組成部分。如您所知，我們言出必行。當我們說要降低每個企業的排放強度時，我們就會這麼做。當我們不知道如何到達 2050 年時，我們不會做出誇大的宣稱。我們不是這樣的人。

At this time, there are no further questions. Are there any closing remarks?

目前，沒有其他問題了。有結束語嗎？

Yes. It's Scott here. I'll just clarify one question before I turn it over to Mick to wrap up. Jeremy, just circling back to your question on hedging for the remaining of the year. Your previous question asked me for a quarterly run rate on G&A. So I actually answered your question. I answered it on a quarterly basis, not a yearly basis. So we expect to have losses of about $20 million per quarter when it relates to NGL, and that's pricing as of March 31. So I just wanted to clarify that my $20 million was per quarter for the rest of the year.

是的。這是斯科特。在將問題交給米克總結之前，我先澄清一個問題。傑里米，回到你關於今年剩餘時間對沖的問題。您之前的問題詢問我 G&A 的季度運行率。所以我實際上回答了你的問題。我按季度回答，而不是按年回答。因此，我們預計與 NGL 相關的每季損失約為 2000 萬美元，這是截至 3 月 31 日的定價。

Yes. Thanks, Scott. Listen, everybody. Look forward, we have our AGM at 2:00 p.m. Looking forward to having you tune in for that. We got a very positive message to deliver on the way we got through 2020, which we're extremely proud of and what we see upcoming, and we'll have a nice little video at the end, which is something new, realizing you're all online, that'll be a little more entertaining, and you'll get to meet Janet in person. So looking forward to having you all meet her. So that's 2:00 p.m. Mountain Time. Talk to you soon.

是的。謝謝，斯科特。聽著，大家。敬請期待，我們將於下午 2:00 召開年度股東大會。期待您的收聽。我們在2020 年的道路上傳遞了一個非常積極的信息，我們對此感到非常自豪，我們也看到了即將發生的事情，最後我們將有一個很棒的小視頻，這是一些新的東西，讓你意識到」全部在線，這會更有趣一些，而且您將能夠見到珍妮特本人。所以期待大家見到她。現在是下午 2:00。山區時間。以後再聊。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。