Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us, and welcome to Pembina Pipeline Corporation Q3 2026 results. (Operator Instructions)

I will now hand the conference over to Dan Tucunel, Vice President, Capital Markets. Dan, please go ahead.

Thank you, Leah. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Pembina's conference call and webcast to review highlights from the third quarter of 2026.

On the call today, we have Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Cameron Goldade, Chief Financial Officer, along with other members of Pembina's leadership team.

I would like to remind you that some of the comments made today may be forward-looking in nature and are based on Pembina's current expectations, estimates, judgments and projections. Forward-looking statements we may express or imply today are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

Further, some of the information provided refers to non-GAAP measures. To learn more about these forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures, please see the company's MD&A dated November 5, 2026, for the period ended September 30, 2026, as well as the press release Pembina issued yesterday. All materials are available online at pembina.com and on both SEDAR+ and EDGAR.

I will now turn things over to Scott.

Thanks, Dan. Yesterday, we reported third quarter results, which were highlighted by adjusted EBITDA of $1.128 billion, a 9% increase over the third quarter of 2025. It was another solid quarter that reflects strong operational performance, new assets entering service and a constructive commodity environment. The outperformance over our initial expectations for the quarter was mostly due to the benefits of our exposure to premium propane prices in Asian markets late in the quarter through West Coast exports, which provided a significant uplift for the quarter.

As Cam will discuss in more detail, given our third quarter performance and the commodity outlook for the remainder of the year, we have updated our 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $4.45 billion to $4.55 billion, and we are currently trending to the upper end of that range based on the current market outlook.

Against the backdrop of improving policy support, expanding market access for all products and growing demand for Canadian energy, Pembina continues to execute on opportunities that reinforce our position at the center of Western Canada's evolving energy value chain. We believe the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin is entering a period where expanding market access, growing energy demand and infrastructure investment can reinforce one another in a powerful growth cycle across all hydrocarbons. We refer to this as the energy flywheel.

Greater crude oil egress would support higher oil sands production, driving increased demand for condensate. In turn, the increase in liquids-rich natural gas production needed to produce the condensate could support incremental opportunities across gas processing, transportation, fractionation, petrochemicals, LNG exports and power generation. As the premier energy infrastructure company with an integrated value chain spanning all of these products and markets, we believe Pembina is uniquely positioned for growth opportunities throughout the basin.

Since our business update in April, we have made tangible progress executing our strategy, sanctioning nearly $3 billion of projects that will contribute to our growth targets through 2030, while advancing longer-term projects that are expected to extend profitable growth through the next decade.

As a reminder, our 3C strategy is built around three complementary pillars: to capture growing production from the highest quality resource plays; to connect those products to global markets; and to catalyze new demand platforms in the markets where we operate.

Over the past quarter, within Capture, the Lator Infrastructure, including a new battery and gathering laterals was completed on time and entered service early in October. Gas volumes from the Lator Infrastructure will flow to PGI's Musreau facility, supporting long-term plant utilization and the liquids are contracted on Pembina's pipeline and fractionation infrastructure. The assets are secured by long-term take-or-pay contracts and contribute to our fee-based growth.

Within Connect, we announced that we had entered into an agreement to participate in Pacific Link, a proposed new approximately 1 million barrels per day crude oil pipeline system connecting Alberta's West Coast and related exports -- connecting Alberta to Canada's West Coast and a related export terminal. And within Catalyze, Pembina and its partners sanctioned the Greenlight Electricity Centre, a 932-megawatt natural gas-fired combined cycle power generation facility to be located in the Alberta Industrial Heartland.

Greenlight will create new demand for Canadian natural gas while strengthening and diversifying Pembina's businesses through a long-term contracted business tied to data center development. Contracted power for data centers is a significant and scalable growth opportunity, and this first project has proven the commercial model to support future expansions.

Taken together, the progress this quarter demonstrates tangible execution across each pillar of the 3C strategy. We remain confident in our ability to deliver our targeted 5% to 7% compound annual fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share growth through 2030. And with a growing backlog of projects such as Pacific Link and future Greenlight expansions, we are well positioned to extend that growth well into the next decade.

I'll now turn things over to Cam.

Thanks, Scott. As Scott noted, Pembina reported third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.128 billion. Compared to the third quarter of 2025, a 9% increase reflects higher NGL margins, driven by the benefits from exposure to premium propane prices in Asian markets through West Coast exports and higher North American NGL prices as well as strong operational performance and higher volumes across the Pipelines and Facilities divisions. These factors were partially offset by the impact of the new toll structure and revenue sharing mechanism on the Alliance Pipeline that came into effect on November 1, 2025.

Looking at quarter-over-quarter results by division, Pipelines reported adjusted EBITDA of $606 million, a 4% decrease, reflecting the net impact of lower net revenue on the Alliance Pipeline as a result of the new toll structure, lower operating costs on certain pipeline assets and higher volumes on the Nipisi and Drayton Valley pipelines.

Facilities reported adjusted EBITDA of $400 million, a 13% increase, reflecting higher revenue from the Redwater Complex as a result of RFS IV entering service in May, higher demand for terminalling services and no comparable planned outage as occurred in the third quarter of 2025. In addition, higher contributions from PGI as a result of higher volumes from the Wapiti Expansion entering service in March and improved volumes in 2026 due to a planned outage in 2025 that did not reoccur. And finally, a higher contribution from Vancouver Wharves due to increased demand for services.

In Marketing & New Ventures, third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $167 million, a 69% increase, reflecting an increase in NGL margins driven by higher WCSB and US NGL prices as well as the benefits from exposure to premium propane prices in Asian markets through West Coast exports, all of which were largely the result of rising global demand and geopolitical supply concerns, partially offset by higher realized losses on NGL-based derivatives as well higher realized gains on crude oil-based derivatives.

Finally, in the Corporate segment, third quarter adjusted EBITDA was negative $45 million, an 8% improvement over the prior period. Earnings in the third quarter were $570 million, which represents a 99% increase over the same period in the prior year.

In addition to the factors impacting adjusted EBITDA, change in earnings in the third quarter was primarily due to lower depreciation and amortization in pipelines, a lower impairment expense recognized on certain PGI assets and the nonrecurrence of a gain recognized in the third quarter of 2025. As well, a higher share of profit from Cedar LNG driven by unrealized gains on interest rate derivative financial instruments in the third quarter of 2026 compared to losses in the same quarter of 2025 and higher share of profit from Greenlight resulting from unrealized gains on interest rate derivative financial instruments.

Adjusted earnings were $479 million or an 11% increase over the same period in the prior year. The change reflects similar factors that impacted earnings discussed above, excluding the lower impairment expense recognized on certain PGI assets and the higher share of profit from Cedar LNG and Greenlight. The positive factors were partially offset by lower realized gains on derivative instruments in the Marketing & New Ventures division.

Total volumes in the Pipelines and Facilities divisions were 3.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter. This represents an increase of approximately 1% over the same period in the prior year. Higher third quarter pipeline volumes were driven primarily by higher interruptible volumes on AEGS, higher contracted volumes on the Nipisi and Drayton Valley pipeline and higher volumes on the Peace Pipeline system.

Higher third quarter Facilities volumes were driven by the impact of RFS IV entering service in May and higher volumes at PGI primarily from the Wapiti Expansion and fewer planned outages compared to the same period in 2025. These increases were partially offset by lower contracted volumes at the Saturn Complex, lower volumes at Younger due to an asset upgrade in the third quarter of 2026 and lower volumes at Aux Sable due to decrease in ethane sales.

Pembina has also updated its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $4.45 billion to $4.55 billion from $4.35 billion to $4.55 billion previously. We are currently trending towards the upper end of that range based on the current market outlook for 2026, and we plan to provide our 2027 guidance in December. The specific factors expected to impact the fourth quarter include seasonality in the WCSB NGL frac spread business, resulting in higher marketed NGL volumes, higher contribution on the Alliance Pipeline due to seasonality and the ability to transport higher volumes during colder periods, higher contributions from the Cochin Pipeline driven by higher interruptible volumes arising from more favorable commodity price differentials, and a higher contribution from PGI due to new assets entering service and nonrecurring revenue recognition.

The lower and the upper end of the updated 2026 guidance range are framed primarily as a function of commodity prices and the resulting contribution from marketing business, interruptible volumes on key systems, the US-Canadian dollar exchange rate, and Pembina's share price performance and its impact on incentive compensation costs.

I'll now turn things back to Scott.

Thanks, Cam. In closing, the third quarter reflects tangible execution of our 3C strategy and the breadth of opportunities available within Pembina's business. With nearly $3 billion of projects sanctioned since April, a growing backlog of opportunities and the financial capacity to pursue them, Pembina is well positioned to continue shaping and supporting the evolution of the Western Canadian energy sector.

Reliable energy infrastructure is critical to support economic growth, energy security and global competitiveness, an increasingly constructive environment, including improving policy support, expanding market access for all products and growing demand for Canadian energy supports what Pembina has long done, build and operate critical energy infrastructure across an integrated value chain with a focus on profitability and financial discipline.

Please go ahead and open up the line for questions.

(Operator Instructions) Theresa Chen, Barclays.

Following the FID of Greenlight earlier this year, you've repeatedly discussed the potential to add additional power generation projects. Could you elaborate on your view of the competitive landscape for BTM projects in Alberta, given other operators evaluating also making inroads in the space at this point?

Sure. I think as it relates to Greenlight, obviously, getting that off the ground was a key achievement for Pembina as we said in our opening remarks, including what we believe to be a first-mover advantage. We are already in the field, moving dirt and pouring piles. So we're making great progress on Greenlight 1.

As we talked about with our Q2 results, we had recently purchased incremental land in the Industrial Heartland right next to our site. So when we think about Greenlight, we've always said we see this as a business, not as a project. And so the existing site we have today is not only licensed for 1.8 gigawatts. So double what we're building today but we also have significant industrial zone land right beside the existing project. And so we are feeling confident about future development phases at Greenlight.

And I wanted to come back to your comments earlier about the direct exposure to strong Asian propane pricing through West Coast exports. How sustainable do you see this current dynamic? Is it primarily being driven by elevated freight and the economics of replacing Middle East molecules, which would arguably normalize at some point? Or are there other structural factors at play? And how meaningful of a tailwind could this be for the business over the next year?

Thanks, Theresa. It's Cam here. I mean, the first thing I'll say is note and agree with your comment, I'd say that we would clearly acknowledge and agree that the market from that side is very frothy right now. Stepping back from just that particular arb, we see many key arbs in which Pembina participates at record levels and differentials are wide across the board. So clearly, those are stronger conditions as we've seen in a very long time.

I think when we look at the sustainability of this, we recognize that markets ebb and flow. And one thing that we really think is a benefit and a strategic value of the Pembina platform is the diversification of our market access. And so when you look at our model, we've got great access to Asian markets through a combination of our own propane export terminal off Prince Rupert as well as capacity in another facility.

We ship NGLs to the Alliance Pipeline down into the Midwest, ship NGLs east into the Eastern Canada, Sarnia market. Then we obviously have an extensive rail platform to be able to move NGLs all throughout North America. And I think what we see is in times of uncertainty, as we are right now, customers value flexibility and optionality. And so that really benefits Pembina's system, our operating capability and our access to multiple markets.

I think to close out the question, clearly, there does seem to be a step change in market flows. And for a long time, we've seen the Asian market as being a very long-term and sustainable demand source. Which is why we've prioritized having that market access. But finally, we do continue to think that having access in multiple markets is very valuable.

Aaron MacNeil, TD Cowen.

Maybe just building on Theresa's Greenlight question. You've talked about the advantages you have around the existing site. Maybe that's even more in focus this week given some of the challenges we're potentially seeing in the US market. But can you frame the potential timing and remaining milestones for Phase 2?

And then beyond Phase 2 with sort of the recent Cluster 3 filings showing another sort of 466 megawatts of the Greenlight site and a much larger potential development that links Sturgeon next door. How should investors characterize those opportunities today in terms of how tangible they are or the potential timing?

Yes. So it's Chris. We've certainly been upfront about our plans, as Scott mentioned, to expand on this site and the adjacent lands. The path we're going to take on Greenlight 2 is going to feel very similar to the path we took on, on Greenlight 1. We put the strategic pieces in place to sort of maintain our position in the market as we see it.

And over the next number of months through Q4 and into Q1, we're going to be working with customers to get agreements nailed down that support the backstopping and the progression of turbines and connections and all the components that make Greenlight 1 successful. As far as scale, I mean that remains to be seen, but we're certainly positioning ourselves to make this business beyond Greenlight 1, and you can see that through our land acquisitions and the permitting you referenced.

Okay. Fair enough. I also want to switch to marketing and realized pricing as well. Can you give us a sense of how you're approaching 2027 hedging in the current environment? Like do you think you lock in here? Or do you want to retain some exposure to that premium pricing?

Yes. Great question, Aaron. It's Cam here again. I would say that picking up on the last question, when there's times of uncertainty, clearly, you focus on what's in your control. And as I mentioned, the first is our really strong operating capability and making sure we've got ability to move product into all those markets, and our teams on the ground are doing a great job of that.

The second is following our disciplined risk management philosophy. And with that, as we've maybe talked about in the past, we really focused on a matrix which guides us to where we should be hedging based on where prices are. And so we used the strength in the third quarter following our hedging policy to layer on incremental hedges. We would have been closer to 15% to 20% hedged on the Q2 call. Today, as we stand here today, we're closer to 55% hedged for 2027. So following the risk matrix, but clearly, the ability to crystallize some of this as we look to some of the uncertainty in the future.

Jeremy Tonet, JP Morgan Securities LLC.

Just wanted to move over towards Cedar and the potential for expansion there, given what we've seen with more gas coming to the West Coast here with recent expansions. And so just wondering if you could update us there on the potential for an expansion?

Sure. Maybe before I talk about that, I'll just give a quick update on Cedar. As we've now crossed 80% complete on that facility. And so we're feeling obviously, very, very good about on time and on budget for that project. Everything is tracking as expected. So we're getting excited and really starting to turn our minds to operational readiness here for 2028.

As it relates to Cedar, just maybe by -- I'll throw out a couple of reference points. Right now, we have capacity on Coastal GasLink for 400 million cubic feet a day, which we've contracted out to third parties. The ship is -- has the capacity to do 440 million cubic feet a day, and we have an export license up to 500 million cubic feet a day.

And so the first priority for Pembina is really for looking for incremental gas to fill that facility up to 440 million cubic feet a day and potentially up to 500 million once it's up and running and we're able to debottleneck it. So that is priority number one.

As it relates to future expansions, we've long said that we needed to see what the outcome of LNG Canada Phase 2 was. We are very pleased to see that earlier this month or last month. And so now that that's behind us, we'll start to have some discussions around what gas is available and what the potential is for Cedar 2. We obviously have a partner in Cedar. But from Pembina's perspective, if there's an ability to do Cedar 2 we would very much be interested in that, and we're continuing to work that file.

Got it. That's very helpful. And at the risk of getting too far ahead of myself here, just looking at the planned role coming up, if I recall correctly about the EBITDA cadence over the next few years here, 2027 was below trend, and then kind of EBITDA growth was accelerating thereafter. And you have some chunky capital coming into service at the end of the decade, and it seems like that would put upward pressure, I guess, on the EBITDA outlook as we roll here.

Just wondering, as you think as a company about how you would communicate future growth, does it make sense if the numbers say to lift from 5% to 7% to, say, 6% to 8% or whatever the numbers are? Or would Pembina prefer just to kind of rebase higher as good years come through and keep that 5%? Just wondering, philosophically, if there's a preference there.

Yes, Jeremy, great question. First thing I'll say is, as I said in the prepared remarks, we look forward to introducing our 2027 guidance in December and in our typical fashion, giving the market very detailed visibility into the out year at that time.

Picking up the rest of your question, I would say that in April, we obviously laid out a plan to deliver 5% to 7% annual fee-based growth of EBITDA per share through 2030. And since then, we sanctioned roughly $3 billion of growth capital, which has really reinforced our confidence in the growth outlook as well as the quality of that growth as a result of some of the projects that we have sanctioned so far.

The timeline of our long-term growth target was really chosen to reflect our major projects entering service. And the first meaningful step change to that is expected later in 2028 with Cedar LNG, which Scott said, continues to progress on time and on budget.

It also includes Greenlight's contribution for half a year in 2030 and at an annualized contribution after that. Finally, I think we were quite clear, as you said from the outset that 2027 is a springboard year to the bigger chunkier growth that comes in 2028 and 2030. So for the moment, we're really focused on execution. Clearly, we see strong signals about the potential in our core business and potential to continue to see that. But for now, we're focused on execution and the quality of the existing backlog.

Sam Burwell, Jefferies.

The wider WCS diffs has gotten a lot of attention. So I was wondering to what extent you guys might be exposed to that potentially in marketing? Just wondering if it's WCS exposure or more so other grades? And I mean if you are exposed to WCS, if we see more contango in that curve, could that be a material tailwind to marketing in 4Q in subsequent quarters?

It's Chris. WCS diffs -- WCS diffs don't make up a significant portion of our marketing portfolio. So wouldn't want to send any signal that those diffs are having impact on our marketing results. Obviously, there's some components, but for the most part, we're dealing with other differentials across the crude marketing business.

Okay. Understood. Super helpful. And then circling back to the Asian LPG tailwind that you called out in 3Q. Just curious if your guidance for the rest of the year contemplates any of the disruption that AltaGas is facing at RIPET? I think you guys have 20,000 day of capacity there that complements Prince Rupert. So curious what might be embedded in guidance for that dynamic?

Yes, Sam, it's Cam here again. The short answer to your question is yes, that is reflected in our guidance range. And I would point back to my earlier comments speaking about the diversification of markets and our ability to move product through a variety of channels as a means to obviously optimize and mitigate any effects that would come from that. So short answer is yes, it's impacted. And obviously, we hope for a speedy resolution, but all reflected in our guidance range.

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Scott Burrows for closing remarks.

Thank you all for the questions. Our confidence in the growth outlook both to 2030 and into the next decade continues to strengthen. We hope you share our excitement as we continue to execute on our strategy to capture, connect and catalyze in service of creating value for our shareholders. I'm incredibly proud of our Pembina team and everything we have accomplished this quarter. Thanks for joining us today and we'll chat soon.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.