Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Prosperity Bancshares First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Prosperity Bancshares 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Charlotte Rasche. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給 Charlotte Rasche。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Prosperity Bancshares First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being broadcast live over the Internet at prosperitybankusa.com and will be available for replay for the next few weeks.

謝謝。女士們先生們，早上好，歡迎來到 Prosperity Bancshares 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。此電話會議正在 propersencebankusa.com 上通過互聯網進行現場直播，並將在接下來的幾週內進行重播。

I'm Charlotte Rasche, Executive Vice President and General Counsel of Prosperity Bancshares. And here with me today is David Zalman, Senior Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; H.E. Tim Timanus Jr., Chairman; Asylbek Osmonov, Chief Financial Officer; Kevin Hanigan, President and Chief Operating Officer; Randy Hester, Chief Lending Officer; Merle Karnes, Chief Credit Officer; Mays Davenport, Director of Corporate Strategy; and Bob Dowdell, Executive Vice President. Eddie Safady, our Vice Chairman, is under the weather and unable to join us today.

我是 Prosperity Bancshares 的執行副總裁兼總法律顧問 Charlotte Rasche。今天和我在一起的是高級董事長兼首席執行官 David Zalman；他。 Tim Timanus Jr.，董事長； Asylbek Osmonov，首席財務官；總裁兼首席運營官 Kevin Hanigan； Randy Hester，首席貸款官； Merle Karnes，首席信貸官；企業戰略總監 Mays Davenport；和執行副總裁 Bob Dowdell。我們的副主席埃迪·薩法迪 (Eddie Safady) 身體不適，今天無法加入我們。

David Zalman will lead off with a review of the highlights for the recent quarter. He will be followed by Asylbek Osmonov who will review some of our recent financial statistics; and Tim Timanus, who will discuss our lending activities, including asset quality. Finally, we will open the call for questions.

David Zalman 將首先回顧最近一個季度的亮點。緊隨其後的是 Asylbek Osmonov，他將審查我們最近的一些財務統計數據； Tim Timanus，他將討論我們的貸款活動，包括資產質量。最後，我們將公開提問。

During the call, interested parties may participate live by following the instructions provided by our call moderator. Before we begin, let me make the usual disclaimers. Certain of the matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements for the purposes of the federal securities laws, and as such, may involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results or performance of Prosperity Bancshares to be materially different from future results or performance expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

在通話期間，感興趣的各方可以按照我們的通話主持人提供的說明進行現場參與。在我們開始之前，讓我做出通常的免責聲明。本演示文稿中討論的某些事項可能構成聯邦證券法目的的前瞻性陳述，因此可能涉及已知和未知的風險、不確定性和其他因素，這些因素可能導致 Prosperity Bancshares 的實際結果或表現與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的未來結果或業績存在重大差異。

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to be materially different than those in the forward-looking statements can be found in Prosperity Bancshares' filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including Forms 10-Q, 10-K and other reports and statements we have filed with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements.

有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，請參閱 Prosperity Bancshares 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括表格 10-Q、10-K 和其他報告和聲明我們已向美國證券交易委員會備案。所有前瞻性陳述均由這些警示性陳述明確限定。

Now let me turn the call over to David Zalman.

現在讓我把電話轉給 David Zalman。

Thank you, Charlotte, and good morning, everyone. Each year, Forbes assesses the 100 largest banks in the United States on growth, credit quality and earnings as well as other factors for its America's Best Bank list. Prosperity Bank has been ranked in the top 10 since the list inception in 2010. We have twice been ranked #1, ranked #2 in 2021 and ranked #6 for 2023. It is a testament to Prosperity's performance culture, vision and consistency and distinguishes us among most banks. I congratulate and thank all our customers, associates and directors for helping us achieve this honor.

謝謝你，夏洛特，大家早上好。每年，福布斯都會評估美國 100 家最大的銀行的增長、信貸質量和收益以及美國最佳銀行名單的其他因素。 Prosperity Bank 自 2010 年榜單創立以來一直位列前 10 名。我們兩次排名第一，2021 年排名第二，2023 年排名第六。這證明了 Prosperity 的績效文化、願景和一致性，並且與眾不同我們在大多數銀行中。我祝賀並感謝我們所有的客戶、員工和董事幫助我們獲得這一榮譽。

On a linked quarter basis, the net income was $124 million for the 3 months ended March 31, 2023, and compared with $122 million for the same period in 2022. The net income per diluted common share was $1.37 for the 3 months ended March 31, 2023, compared with $1.33 for the 3 months ended March 31, 2022. For the 3 months ended March 31, 2023, the annualized return on average assets were 1.31%. The annualized return on average tangible common equity was 14.34% and the efficiency ratio was 43.68%.

按季度計算，截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的三個月淨收入為 1.24 億美元，而 2022 年同期為 1.22 億美元。截至 3 月 31 日的三個月，每股攤薄普通股淨收入為 1.37 美元，到 2023 年，而截至 2022 年 3 月 31 日的三個月為 1.33 美元。截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的三個月，年化平均資產回報率為 1.31%。平均有形普通股權益年化收益率為14.34%，效率率為43.68%。

Loans on a linked quarter -- linked quarter loans, excluding warehouse purchase program loans, increased $436 million or 2.4%, 9.6% annualized from $18.1 billion at December 31, 2022. Excluding warehouse purchase program loans, loans at March 31, 2023, were $18.5 billion compared with $16.7 billion at March 31, 2022, an increase of $1.8 billion or 10.8%. Loan growth is helped by fewer loans being paid off early compared with previous quarters. We expect this to continue, while rates remain at their current levels or increase.

關聯季度的貸款——關聯季度貸款，不包括倉庫購買計劃貸款，從 2022 年 12 月 31 日的 181 億美元增加 4.36 億美元或 2.4%，年化 9.6%。不包括倉庫購買計劃貸款，截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的貸款為與 2022 年 3 月 31 日的 167 億美元相比，增加了 18 億美元或 10.8%，為 185 億美元。與前幾個季度相比，提前還清的貸款減少有助於貸款增長。我們預計這種情況將持續下去，而利率將保持在當前水平或增加。

Deposits at March 31, 2023, were $27 billion, a decrease of $1.5 billion or 5.4% from $28.5 billion at December 31, 2022. Deposits decreased $4.1 billion or 13% compared with deposits of $31.1 billion at March 31, 2022. The majority of all deposits lost in 2022 were public firms. These investment firms were in interest-bearing transaction accounts at low rates because there was no yield to be found. As rates increase, public firms started investing their money in state firms, such as TexPool to obtain higher rates.

2023 年 3 月 31 日的存款為 270 億美元，比 2022 年 12 月 31 日的 285 億美元減少 15 億美元或 5.4%。與 2022 年 3 月 31 日的存款 311 億美元相比，存款減少 41 億美元或 13%。大部分2022 年損失的所有存款都是上市公司。這些投資公司在低利率的有息交易賬戶中，因為找不到收益。隨著利率上升，上市公司開始將資金投資於國有企業，例如 TexPool，以獲得更高的利率。

Of the deposit decrease in the first quarter, $959 million or 63% of the $1.5 billion decrease occurred prior to March 10. Historically, prior to the pandemic in 2017 and% '18 and '19, our deposits decreased seasonally in January an average of 2.2%. We also saw $236 million of deposits flow into our wealth management group.

在第一季度的存款減少中，9.59 億美元或 15 億美元減少中的 63% 發生在 3 月 10 日之前。從歷史上看，在 2017 年大流行以及 18 年和 19 年大流行之前，我們的存款在 1 月份季節性平均減少了2.2%。我們還看到 2.36 億美元的存款流入我們的財富管理集團。

As we all are aware, the market was flooded with excess funds in the last few years during the COVID-19 pandemic. And most people kept their money primarily in checking and low interest-bearing accounts because no one was paying much for money. Now that the rates are increasing, people are finding the best rate they can for their investment funds that were lying dormant.

眾所周知，過去幾年在 COVID-19 大流行期間，市場充斥著過剩資金。大多數人主要將錢存入支票和低息賬戶，因為沒有人花太多錢。現在利率正在上漲，人們正在為他們處於休眠狀態的投資基金尋找最好的利率。

When we look at pre-COVID deposits at March 31, 2020, we had $23.8 billion in deposits. And at March 31, 2023, we have $27 billion in deposits. This represents a compounded annual growth rate of 4.3% annually. Historically, before the excess funds in the system, Prosperity had organic deposit growth rates of approximately 2% to 4% annually. So we are still averaging deposits on the high end of our historical growth rate.

當我們查看 2020 年 3 月 31 日 COVID 之前的存款時，我們有 238 億美元的存款。到 2023 年 3 月 31 日，我們有 270 億美元的存款。這代表每年 4.3% 的複合年增長率。從歷史上看，在系統中出現過剩資金之前，Prosperity 的有機存款年增長率約為 2% 至 4%。因此，我們的平均存款仍處於歷史增長率的高端。

Our average deposit account was $34,000 at March 31, 2023, and $36,000 at December 31, 2022. Our uninsured and pledged deposits are 29.9% of our total deposits. We currently have $11.3 billion of liquidity available to draw on, which represents approximately $4 billion in excess of our uninsured and pledged deposits.

2023 年 3 月 31 日，我們的平均存款賬戶為 34,000 美元，2022 年 12 月 31 日為 36,000 美元。我們的未投保和質押存款佔總存款的 29.9%。我們目前有 113 億美元的流動資金可供提取，這比我們未投保和質押的存款多出約 40 億美元。

With regards to net interest margin, while most banks have experienced some of their best net interest margins recently because of our large bond portfolio, our net interest margin always takes longer to adjust. Our models show our net interest margin improving to more historical levels in the next 12 to 24 months and even better than 36 months. Our average net interest margin from 2012 to 2022 was 3.37% compared with our current net interest margin of 2.93% as of March 31, 2023.

在淨息差方面，雖然由於我們龐大的債券組合，大多數銀行最近都經歷了一些最好的淨息差，但我們的淨息差總是需要更長的時間來調整。我們的模型顯示，我們的淨息差在未來 12 至 24 個月內將改善至更多歷史水平，甚至優於 36 個月。我們 2012 年至 2022 年的平均淨息差為 3.37%，而截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日，我們目前的淨息差為 2.93%。

Our asset quality remains sound. Year-over-year nonperforming assets decreased 9.9%. Nonperforming assets totaled $24.5 million at March 31, 2023, compared with $27.5 million at December 31, 2022, and $27.2 million at March 31, 2022.

我們的資產質量保持良好。不良資產同比下降 9.9%。截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日，不良資產總額為 2450 萬美元，而 2022 年 12 月 31 日為 2750 萬美元，2022 年 3 月 31 日為 2720 萬美元。

Texas and Oklahoma continue to do well. Texas population increased by 470,000 in 2022, continuing a steady uptick. From 2002 to 2022, the state gained over 9 million residents, more than any other state and almost 3 million more than Florida, the next largest gaining state. Texas and Oklahoma continue to benefit from strong economies and are home to 56 Fortune 500 headquartered companies. Texas now has more Fortune 500 companies than any other state, including New York and California. Despite the higher rates and a possible slower economy going forward, we believe the Texas and Oklahoma economies should outperform most other states.

得克薩斯州和俄克拉荷馬州繼續表現良好。德克薩斯州人口在 2022 年增加了 470,000，繼續穩步上升。從 2002 年到 2022 年，該州增加了超過 900 萬居民，比任何其他州都多，比第二大增加州佛羅里達州多近 300 萬。得克薩斯州和俄克拉荷馬州繼續受益於強勁的經濟，擁有 56 家財富 500 強公司總部。得克薩斯州現在擁有的財富 500 強公司數量超過任何其他州，包括紐約和加利福尼亞。儘管未來利率較高且經濟可能放緩，但我們認為德克薩斯州和俄克拉荷馬州的經濟表現應優於大多數其他州。

With regard to acquisitions, as we recently announced, we received all necessary regulatory approvals for our acquisition of First Bancshares of Texas Inc. and expect that transaction will be effective on May 1, 2023. Our acquisition of Lone Star State Bancshares is pending regulatory approvals and is expected to close during the second quarter of 2023, although delays could occur. We continue to have active conversations with other bankers regarding potential acquisition opportunities, although the conversations have slowed given the recent bank failures and the decline in stock prices.

關於收購，正如我們最近宣布的那樣，我們獲得了所有必要的監管批准，以收購德克薩斯公司的 First Bancshares，預計該交易將於 2023 年 5 月 1 日生效。我們對 Lone Star State Bancshares 的收購正在等待監管批准預計將在 2023 年第二季度關閉，但可能會出現延誤。我們繼續與其他銀行家就潛在的收購機會進行積極對話，儘管由於最近的銀行倒閉和股價下跌，對話已經放緩。

Overall, I want to thank all our associates for helping create the success we have had. We've had a strong team. We have a strong team and a deep bench at Prosperity, and we'll continue to work hard to help our customers and associates succeed and to increase shareholder value. Thanks again for your support of our company.

總的來說，我要感謝我們所有的同事幫助我們取得了成功。我們擁有一支強大的團隊。 Prosperity 擁有強大的團隊和實力雄厚的後備力量，我們將繼續努力幫助我們的客戶和員工取得成功並增加股東價值。再次感謝您對我公司的支持。

Let me turn over our discussion to Asylbek Osmonov, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss some of the specific financial results we achieved. Asylbek?

讓我將討論轉交給我們的首席財務官 Asylbek Osmonov，討論我們取得的一些具體財務成果。阿西爾貝克？

Thank you, Mr. Zalman. Good morning, everyone. Net interest income before provision for credit losses for the 3 months ended March 31, 2023, was $243.5 million compared to $239.9 million for the same period in 2022, an increase of $3.5 million or 1.5%. Loan and secured interest income increased $54.1 million and $18.2 million, respectively, in the first quarter. Additionally, Fed funds interest income increased $6.2 million. This was partially offset by increase in interest expense of $74.9 million.

謝謝你，扎爾曼先生。大家，早安。截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的三個月，扣除信貸損失準備金前的淨利息收入為 2.435 億美元，而 2022 年同期為 2.399 億美元，增加 350 萬美元或 1.5%。第一季度貸款和擔保利息收入分別增加了 5410 萬美元和 1820 萬美元。此外，聯邦基金利息收入增加了 620 萬美元。這部分被利息支出增加 7,490 萬美元所抵消。

Net interest income increased $3.5 million despite having $7.9 million less in combined PPP loan fee income and fair value loan income. The net interest margin on a tax equivalent basis was 2.93% for the 3 months ended March 31, 2023, compared to 2.88% for the same period in 2022 and 3.05% for the quarter ended December 31, 2022. Excluding purchase accounting adjustments, the net interest margin for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, was 2.91% compared to 2.81% for the same period in 2022 and 3.04% for the quarter ended December 31, 2022.

儘管 PPP 貸款費用收入和公允價值貸款收入合計減少 790 萬美元，但淨利息收入增加了 350 萬美元。截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日止的三個月，按稅收等值計算的淨息差為 2.93%，而 2022 年同期為 2.88%，截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止的季度為 3.05%。不包括採購會計調整，截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日止季度的淨息差為 2.91%，而 2022 年同期為 2.81%，截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止季度為 3.04%。

The current quarter net interest margin was impacted by $3 billion of additional cash held at the Fed for liquidity insurance purposes during the month of March. This $3 billion additional cash was funded through FHLB borrowings. Further, at the end of the first quarter, we increased rates on deposits. We expect the full impact of those increases in the second quarter.

本季度的淨息差受到美聯儲在 3 月份為流動性保險目的額外持有的 30 億美元現金的影響。這 30 億美元的額外現金是通過 FHLB 借款提供資金的。此外，在第一季度末，我們提高了存款利率。我們預計這些增長將在第二季度產生全面影響。

Noninterest income was $38.3 million for the 3 months ended March 31, 2023, compared to $35.1 million for the same period in 2022 and $37.7 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2022. Noninterest expense for the 3 months ended March 31, 2023, was $123 million compared to $119.9 million for the same period in 2022 and $119.2 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2022. The linked quarter increase was partially attributed to the higher FDIC assessment rate.

截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日止三個月的非利息收入為 3830 萬美元，而 2022 年同期為 3510 萬美元，截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止季度為 3770 萬美元。截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日止三個月的非利息支出為1.23 億美元，而 2022 年同期為 1.199 億美元，截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止季度為 1.192 億美元。相關季度增長部分歸因於較高的 FDIC 評估利率。

For the second quarter of 2023, we expect noninterest expense to be in the range of $123 million to $125 million. The expected increase is based on the annual merit increases in the second quarter 2023. This projection excludes both the impact from onetime merger-related costs which we estimate to be around $26 million to $28 million and additional noninterest expense from our pending acquisitions.

對於 2023 年第二季度，我們預計非利息支出將在 1.23 億美元至 1.25 億美元之間。預期增長基於 2023 年第二季度的年度績效增長。該預測不包括我們估計約為 2600 萬至 2800 萬美元的一次性合併相關成本的影響以及我們未決收購的額外非利息費用。

Additionally, second quarter results will be impacted by day 2 accounting provision expense related to the upcoming acquisitions. The estimated range of this acquisition-related provision expense is $28 million to $31 million.

此外，第二季度業績將受到與即將進行的收購相關的第 2 天會計準備金費用的影響。這項與收購相關的撥備費用的估計範圍為 2800 萬美元至 3100 萬美元。

The efficiency ratio was 43.7% for the 3 months ended March 31, 2023, compared to 43.7% for the same period in 2022 and 40.9% for the 3 months ended December 31, 2022. The bond portfolio metrics at 3/31/2023 showed a weighted average life of 5.3 years and projected annual cash flows of approximately $2.2 billion.

截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日止三個月的效率比為 43.7%，而 2022 年同期為 43.7%，截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止三個月為 40.9%。截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的債券投資組合指標顯示加權平均壽命為 5.3 年，預計年度現金流量約為 22 億美元。

And with that, let me turn over the presentation to Tim Timanus for some details on loans and asset quality. Timanus?

就此，讓我將演示文稿轉交給蒂姆·蒂馬努斯，了解有關貸款和資產質量的一些細節。提馬努斯？

Thank you, Asylbek. Our nonperforming assets at quarter end March 31, 2023, totaled $24,485,000 or 13 basis points of loans and other real estate compared to $27,494,000 or 15 basis points at December 31, 2022. This represents approximately an 11% decrease and nonperforming assets.

謝謝你，阿西爾貝克。截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日季度末，我們的不良資產總計 24,485,000 美元或貸款和其他房地產的 13 個基點，而 2022 年 12 月 31 日為 27,494,000 美元或 15 個基點。這表示不良資產減少了約 11%。

The March 31, 2023, nonperforming assets total was comprised of $22,496,000 in loans, $0 in repossessed assets and $1,989,000 in other real estate. Of the $24, 485,000 in nonperforming assets at quarter end, only $217,000 are energy credits. Since March 31, 2023, $328,000 in other real estate have been removed from the nonperforming assets. This represents 1.34% of the nonperforming assets.

2023 年 3 月 31 日，不良資產總額包括 22,496,000 美元的貸款、0 美元的收回資產和 1,989,000 美元的其他房地產。在季度末 24 美元的 485,000 美元不良資產中，只有 217,000 美元是能源信貸。自 2023 年 3 月 31 日起，已從不良資產中剔除 328,000 美元的其他房地產。這佔不良資產的 1.34%。

Net charge-offs for the 3 months ended March 31, 2023, were negative $615,000 compared to net charge-offs of $603,000 for the quarter ended December 31, 2022. In other words, for the first quarter of 2023, our recoveries exceeded charge-offs by $615,000.

截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的三個月的淨沖銷為負 615,000 美元，而截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的季度的淨沖銷為 603,000 美元。換句話說，對於 2023 年第一季度，我們的回收率超過了沖銷-減少 615,000 美元。

No dollars were added to the allowance for credit losses during the quarter ended March 31, 2023, nor were any taken into income from the allowance. The average monthly new loan production for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, was $436 million.

截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的季度，信貸損失準備金中沒有增加任何美元，也沒有計入準備金收入。截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的季度，平均每月新增貸款產量為 4.36 億美元。

Loans outstanding at March 31, 2023, were approximately $19.334 billion, compared to $18.840 billion at December 31, 2022. This is a 2.62% increase on a linked-quarter basis. The March 31, 2023, loan total is made up of 43% fixed rate loans, 29% floating rate loans and 28% variable rate loans.

截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日，未償貸款約為 193.34 億美元，而 2022 年 12 月 31 日為 188.40 億美元。環比增長 2.62%。 2023 年 3 月 31 日，貸款總額由 43% 的固定利率貸款、29% 的浮動利率貸款和 28% 的浮動利率貸款組成。

Charlotte, I will now turn it over to you.

夏洛特，我現在把它交給你。

Thank you, Tim. At this time, we are prepared to answer your questions. can you please assist us with questions? Can you please assist us with questions?

謝謝你，蒂姆。此時，我們準備好回答您的問題。你能幫我們解決問題嗎？你能幫我們解答問題嗎？

We'll start the questions in just a minute.

我們將在一分鐘內開始提問。

Are we showing that we're attached?

我們是否表明我們依戀？

Yes, sir.

是的先生。

Bad timing. We're working to get the questions started. We apologize for the delay.

時機不佳。我們正在努力開始提問。對於延誤，我們深表歉意。

Can you hear me now?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I apologize. (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Brady Gailey with KBW.

我道歉。 （操作員說明）第一個問題來自 KBW 的 Brady Gailey。

You guys can hear me, right?

你們能聽到我的聲音，對吧？

Thank God, we were wondering.

感謝上帝，我們在想。

So I know Asylbek mentioned that you moved deposit rates up near the end of the quarter. I was just wondering the magnitude of that. And I hear your comments on longer term, there's opportunity for the margin to expand. How do you expect the margin to trend in the near term?

所以我知道 Asylbek 提到你在本季度末提高了存款利率。我只是想知道那有多大。而且我聽到你對長期的評論，利潤率有機會擴大。您預計短期內的利潤率趨勢如何？

I'll give you an answer on the interest bearing deposits, how we -- based on the projection of the new rate increases on deposit, it will bump up our interest-bearing deposit rate from 110 what we have to about 140 to 145. So that's going to be a little headwind, but what -- if you look at short term on margin, I think it's very hard to pinpoint just because of the 2 acquisition upcoming in the second quarter. We're going to bring their loans and their bond portfolio, both of them are going to be repriced at the market rate, that's going to be a tailwind for us on that standpoint. So that will be hard to pinpoint specifically for the near term, but the information I gave you should give you some information on the Q2.

我會給你一個關於生息存款的答案，我們如何 - 根據新的存款利率增長的預測，它將我們的生息存款利率從我們必須的 110 提高到大約 140 到 145。所以這會有點逆風，但是 - 如果你看短期利潤率，我認為很難僅僅因為第二季度即將進行的 2 次收購而確定。我們將帶來他們的貸款和他們的債券組合，他們都將按照市場利率重新定價，從這個角度來看，這對我們來說是一個順風。因此，短期內很難具體確定，但我給你的信息應該會給你一些關於第二季度的信息。

Okay. And the $3 billion of FHLB which turned into cash on your balance sheet, I know that's pretty earnings neutral, but how long will those balances stay on the balance sheet?

好的。 FHLB 的 30 億美元在你的資產負債表上變成了現金，我知道這對收益來說是中性的，但這些餘額會在資產負債表上保留多久？

So we started about the middle of the 13th or 14th of March and stayed almost through end of the month.

所以我們大約從 3 月 13 日或 14 日中旬開始，幾乎一直待到月底。

Okay. So it's gone now?

好的。所以現在沒了？

Yes, they were gone by end of the quarter -- before the end of the quarter.

是的，他們在本季度末離開了——在本季度末之前。

All right. That's helpful. And then I'm just curious, I know the unrealized loss in your held-to-maturity bond bucket has been going down over the last couple of quarters? I imagine it went down this quarter. What is that amount of after-tax unrealized losses in the held-to-maturity bond book?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我很好奇，我知道你持有至到期債券桶的未實現損失在過去幾個季度一直在下降？我想這個季度它會下降。持有至到期債券賬簿中的稅後未實現虧損數額是多少？

So if you look at 3/31, that net of tax was about $1.1 billion, that's decreased from $1.3 billion we had at the end of the year. So we have $200 million decrease in after tax.

所以如果你看 3/31，稅後淨額約為 11 億美元，比我們年底的 13 億美元有所減少。所以我們的稅後收入減少了 2 億美元。

All right. And then finally for me, anything specific holding up this Lone Star approval?

好的。最後對我來說，有什麼特別的東西阻礙了這個 Lone Star 的批准嗎？

I think we're just waiting on the regulatory approval right now. It's just waiting from them.

我認為我們現在只是在等待監管部門的批准。它只是在等待他們。

Yes, it's nothing specific. They've been busy lightly, as you know.

是的，沒什麼特別的。如你所知，他們一直很忙。

I can imagine, yes.

我可以想像，是的。

But we're hoping to get it done in the second quarter.

但我們希望在第二季度完成。

And our next question today comes from Peter Winter at D.A. Davidson.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Peter Winter。戴維森。

I was wondering, could you talk about the outlook for deposit trends for here and deposit betas beyond the second quarter?

我想知道，你能談談這裡存款趨勢的前景和第二季度以後的存款貝塔嗎？

I can address the betas specifically. So if you look at I'll give you the cumulative beta that we had through 3/31, if you look at over 12 months, the cumulative beta on depositis were about 12 basis points. With recent increases on the deposit rate that I mentioned in my speech, it's going to go up to about 16 to 17 basis points on cumulative betas.

我可以專門解決測試版。因此，如果你看看我會給你我們通過 3/31 的累積 beta，如果你看超過 12 個月，存款的累積 beta 約為 12 個基點。隨著我在演講中提到的最近存款利率的增加，累積貝塔值將上升約 16 至 17 個基點。

Peter, I think as far as trend. I still don't know if everything is -- our deals look like they have stabilized. You have -- but you still have money that's in the system that's probably still looking for higher rates. So I think in the long run, if you ask me in the long run, things will stabilize, and I think you will eventually go back to a point where our bank historically grew 2% to 4% organically every year.

彼得，我認為就趨勢而言。我仍然不知道是否一切都好——我們的交易看起來已經穩定下來了。你有 - 但你仍然有可能仍在尋求更高利率的系統中的錢。所以我認為從長遠來看，如果你從長遠來看，事情會穩定下來，我認為你最終會回到我們銀行歷史上每年有機增長 2% 到 4% 的地步。

And I think that in our budget team, what we're looking for, once things stabilize and you don't read in the social media or on the headlines in CNBC or FOX that I think that that's kind of what we're hoping to go back to is eventually as a -- call it -- somewhere in between, call it, 3%. But anyway, historically, it's always been 2% to 4%. And I think that will happen. I don't know that, that's going to happen this month or next month. I am hoping though that after 5 or 6 months of things calm down, I'm hoping that's when we'll get back to.

而且我認為在我們的預算團隊中，我們正在尋找的東西，一旦事情穩定下來並且你沒有在社交媒體或 CNBC 或 FOX 的頭條新聞中看到我認為這就是我們希望的回到最終是——稱之為——介於兩者之間的某個地方，稱之為 3%。但無論如何，從歷史上看，它一直是 2% 到 4%。我認為那會發生。我不知道，這將在本月或下個月發生。我希望在 5 或 6 個月的事情平靜下來之後，我希望那是我們回到的時候。

Okay. And are we -- if the Fed were to stop raising rates in May, are we at a level where you're almost done raising deposit costs? Or just given where the beta is being lower than peers, there's still some pressure on deposit costs?

好的。我們是否——如果美聯儲在 5 月停止加息，我們是否處於幾乎完成提高存款成本的水平？或者只是考慮到貝塔係數低於同行，存款成本仍然存在一些壓力？

I think that we're -- we did raise the -- what I think is the market. I mean, when you can get 3% on a money market account with a larger deposit, that's pretty good. You may -- it may still go up a quarter of a point from there or so. But based on where the Fed is right now and them going up a quarter or 50 basis points, I don't see much more than that there. I will say that probably as our deposits -- as our deposits probably our bonds and everything reprices and when we look at our models, we really see a very strong net interest margins going forward.

我認為我們 - 我們確實提高了 - 我認為是市場。我的意思是，當你能在貨幣市場賬戶上以更大的存款獲得 3% 的利率時，那就太好了。你可能 - 它可能仍會從那裡上漲四分之一左右。但根據美聯儲目前的情況，他們將上漲 25 個或 50 個基點，我看不到更多。我會說這可能是我們的存款——因為我們的存款可能是我們的債券和所有重新定價的東西，當我們查看我們的模型時，我們確實看到了非常強勁的淨息差。

And so I think the model look stronger than I think they really are. So I think that what I would suggest is that as our reprices, we may just from a customer standpoint, pay more to that and maybe not show the real strong. When you look at the models, they're extremely strong. And I know in a real world, that doesn't happen. I mean our net interest margin, as I mentioned earlier, in the call earlier was that our average has been about 3.37% but we've been as high as 3.80%, and we've been as low as where we are today. So I still think somewhere in between for a bank like ours?

所以我認為這個模型看起來比我想像的更強大。所以我認為我建議的是，作為我們的重新定價，我們可能只是從客戶的角度出發，為此付出更多，也許不會表現出真正的實力。當您查看模型時，它們非常堅固。我知道在現實世界中，這不會發生。我的意思是，正如我之前提到的，在早些時候的電話會議中，我們的淨息差是我們的平均水平約為 3.37%，但我們一直高達 3.80%，而且我們一直低至今天的水平。所以我仍然認為像我們這樣的銀行介於兩者之間？

We didn't -- where a number of the other banks went out and purchased brokered CDs, we didn't. Again, I don't know anybody -- I mean I think that's everybody they need to do what they need to do. I didn't -- I've never really put a lot of money. I never put a lot of faith in the brokered CDs. In fact, when we look at purchasing a bank, I usually just ex all those brokered CDs and they won't give any credit for that.

我們沒有——在許多其他銀行出去購買經紀 CD 的地方，我們沒有。再一次，我不認識任何人——我的意思是我認為這是他們需要做的事情的每個人。我沒有——我從來沒有真正投入過很多錢。我從不相信經紀 CD。事實上，當我們考慮購買一家銀行時，我通常只是排除所有那些經紀 CD，而他們不會為此提供任何信用。

So again, it doesn't mean that we won't be there one day, but that's not something that we participated with. And I don't really want to be -- we took the position that we may lose some money. We may not be as big as we always were. It's going to take us time to maybe get back to that point, excluding the acquisitions that helped us, of course. But we wanted to remain profitable over that period of time and make sure that what we're looking at are truly core relationships and core deposits. And that's kind of where we're at today. Long story, I just want to give you some color.

所以，這並不意味著我們有一天不會在那裡，但這不是我們參與的事情。我真的不想——我們認為我們可能會損失一些錢。我們可能不像以前那麼大了。我們可能需要時間才能回到那個點，當然，不包括幫助我們的收購。但我們希望在那段時間內保持盈利，並確保我們所關注的是真正的核心關係和核心存款。這就是我們今天所處的位置。說來話長，我只是想給你一些顏色。

Yes. Just to add on, I think on the modeling side of it, I think what we're excited our model shows very good in 24, 36 months. And our model has a beta of 36%. But then right now, we're running our actual betas on our deposits less than the that model show. So that looks optimistic.

是的。補充一下，我認為在建模方面，我認為我們很興奮我們的模型在 24、36 個月內表現得非常好。我們的模型的貝塔係數為 36%。但是現在，我們對我們的存款進行的實際測試比那個模型顯示的要少。所以這看起來很樂觀。

I think it all boils down to our company. I think we have a great company. It's strong. So looking forward, I think we're in a better position than most of our peers simply because of the net interest margin that we see going forward. So I think that if you're a longer-term player and you can see where we're going to be in a year or 2 years, that's what we're focusing on is more the longer term really.

我認為這一切都歸結為我們公司。我認為我們有一家很棒的公司。它很強大。所以展望未來，我認為我們比大多數同行處於更好的位置，僅僅是因為我們看到未來的淨息差。所以我認為，如果你是一個長期參與者並且你可以看到我們將在一年或兩年內達到的水平，那麼我們真正關注的是更長期的。

Got it. And just one last question. You had very solid loan growth, loans held for investment this quarter. Is that level sustainable just given the economic backdrop because Tim did mention the average monthly loan production, which was down a fair amount relative to the fourth quarter?

知道了。還有最後一個問題。你有非常穩健的貸款增長，本季度持有用於投資的貸款。考慮到經濟背景，這個水平是否可持續，因為蒂姆確實提到了平均每月貸款產量，與第四季度相比下降了相當多？

Yes, this is Kevin. I think at year-end, our January call, we said mid- to high single digits, and we hit the high single digits portion in Q1. I think we all see a little weakness in loan demand, and we've experienced that for the last couple of months. And what's really aiding or the tailwind, the loan growth is a much reduced level of loan payoffs.

是的，這是凱文。我想在年底，我們一月份的電話會議上，我們說了中高個位數，並且我們在第一季度達到了高個位數部分。我認為我們都看到貸款需求有點疲軟，過去幾個月我們都經歷過這種情況。真正有幫助或順風的是，貸款增長大大降低了貸款還款水平。

So I think we see asset durations extending a bit. If our typical asset duration in real estate was 3 years, it might be 3.5, and it may go out to 4 before this is all set and done. So the loan growth is a little different for the last 3 years as we -- as the legacy portfolio was running off, we kept talking about well, we got the headwinds and runoff. We have the opposite effect now. I think the whole industry has the opposite effect, the slower payoffs still some loan originations, clearly, but slower payoffs.

所以我認為我們看到資產久期有所延長。如果我們在房地產中的典型資產期限是 3 年，它可能是 3.5，並且在這一切都準備就緒之前可能會達到 4。因此，過去 3 年的貸款增長有點不同，因為我們 - 隨著遺留投資組合的流失，我們一直在談論很好，我們遇到了逆風和徑流。我們現在有相反的效果。我認為整個行業都有相反的效果，回報較慢仍然有一些貸款發放，很明顯，但回報較慢。

So I think we're still good at mid-single digits to high single digits. I'll reiterate again what we said in January that if we choose to start selling off mortgage loans rather than portfolio on those, we'll be at the lower end of that versus the higher end.

所以我認為我們仍然擅長中個位數到高個位數。我將再次重申我們在 1 月份所說的話，如果我們選擇開始出售抵押貸款而不是這些貸款的投資組合，我們將處於低端而不是高端。

Yes. And I also want to say with the caveat that now that a lot of the banks that have such high loan-to-deposit ratios, they really cut back on the loans that they're doing. And we've always said in a time -- in harder times, those are the kind of customers that we'll probably get and go after, so we can get better terms and conditions. So that's also helping us at the same time right now. We don't really want to turn those customers away. So that this is really kind of a time where we really perform well.

是的。而且我還想警告說，現在許多擁有如此高貸存比的銀行，他們確實削減了他們正在做的貸款。我們曾經說過——在困難時期，這些是我們可能會獲得併追求的客戶類型，因此我們可以獲得更好的條款和條件。所以現在這也在同時幫助我們。我們真的不想把這些客戶拒之門外。所以這真的是我們真正表現出色的時候。

That's correct. We're actually already starting to see that. We've been able to make some loans to what we believe are very good credits that historically, we might not have been able to lend to, not because of credit reasons, but because of a very significant competition that really just priced the loans down to the point that you couldn't hardly make any money off of them, and you couldn't get any equity in the project or the collateral that you were dealing with.

這是正確的。我們實際上已經開始看到這一點。我們已經能夠向我們認為非常好的信貸提供一些貸款，從歷史上看，我們可能無法貸款，不是因為信貸原因，而是因為非常激烈的競爭，這真的只是壓低了貸款價格以至於你幾乎無法從它們身上賺到任何錢，你也無法獲得項目的任何股權或你正在處理的抵押品。

That is changing right now. More and more banks are out of the market and are pulling out of the market. So our opportunities seem to be increasing somewhat. And you have to recognize that we do have loans that got booked that have not funded up yet. So the actual loans outstanding will probably continue to grow just simply from funding loans that we have already booked that are in progress, so to speak.

現在這種情況正在改變。越來越多的銀行退出市場，退出市場。所以我們的機會似乎在增加一些。而且您必須認識到，我們確實有已預訂但尚未籌集資金的貸款。因此，可以這麼說，實際未償貸款可能會繼續增長，僅僅是來自我們已經預訂的正在進行的融資貸款。

The next question we have will come from Brad Milsaps of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Piper Sandler 的 Brad Milsaps。

Good morning. Just curious, David, how much of the public funds that exited this quarter? Do you expect to come back? And then kind of as a follow-up to that, would you expect to utilize some of those funds to pay down to the extent they do come back, some of the 3 or so billion in borrowings you had outstanding at the end of the quarter?

早上好。只是好奇，大衛，本季度退出的公募基金有多少？你期待回來嗎？然後作為後續行動，您是否希望利用這些資金中的一些來償還他們確實回來的程度，即本季度末您未償還的大約 30 億美元的借款中的一些？

The $2 billion that we lost last year I don't really see those funds coming back. Those were really investment funds. And unless we're willing to pay a textbook rate of $4.80 or something like that. I don't really see those coming back. You will see -- you will see public funds go down throughout this quarter and next quarter. But you will, by the end of the year, you will see public funds to come up. And I would say that could be $300 million to $500 million --

去年我們損失了 20 億美元，我真的看不到這些資金會回來。那些真的是投資基金。除非我們願意支付 4.80 美元或類似的教科書費率。我真的沒有看到那些回來。你會看到——你會看到整個本季度和下季度的公共資金都在下降。但到年底，你會看到公共資金到位。我會說這可能是 3 億到 5 億美元——

Between $400 million to $600 million.

在 4 億到 6 億美元之間。

$400 million to $600 million probably.

可能是 4 億到 6 億美元。

Okay. So in the interim, you mentioned you weren't going to go the brokered CD route. You might just rely more on just cash flows from your bond book or adding some additional Federal Home Loan Bank advances?

好的。所以在此期間，你提到你不會走經紀 CD 路線。您可能只是更多地依賴債券簿中的現金流量或增加一些額外的聯邦住房貸款銀行預付款？

Yes. I mean I don't want us to continue to borrow money from the Federal Home Loan Bank. I mean I guess I look at it this way, I ask myself, we had $3.5 billion in borrowing at the Federal Home Loan Bank at the end of the quarter. And so in my mind, I ask myself, how do you -- if you wanted to get out of that, how do you ever get out of that? And in my mind, we have $2.2 billion in bond roll off a year. And we also are going to have about $434 million of liquidity from the banks that are joining us, First Capital and Lone Star.

是的。我的意思是我不希望我們繼續從聯邦住房貸款銀行借錢。我的意思是我想我是這樣看的，我問自己，本季度末我們在聯邦住房貸款銀行有 35 億美元的借款。所以在我的腦海裡，我問自己，你如何 - 如果你想擺脫它，你如何擺脫它？在我看來，我們每年有 22 億美元的債券滾存。我們還將從加入我們的銀行 First Capital 和 Lone Star 那裡獲得大約 4.34 億美元的流動資金。

So in my mind, if you use just those 2, it takes us about 15 or 16 months that we would be out of the Federal Home Loan Bank completely. Again, unless we lose more deposits, were temporary, that changes every day. But if everything were stagnant at March, that you could get out of 15 to 16 months. I will say, though, for the most of the time, we always do have some portion borrowed at the Federal Loan Bank and probably always will, even in a normal time, we would probably have anywhere from $1 billion to $2 billion, and we leverage that. But not when the yield curve is inverted like it is. But when it's not, we usually leverage that.

所以在我看來，如果你只使用這兩個，我們將需要大約 15 或 16 個月的時間才能完全脫離聯邦住房貸款銀行。同樣，除非我們損失更多的存款，這是暫時的，每天都在變化。但如果一切都在 3 月停滯不前，那你可能會退出 15 到 16 個月。不過，我要說的是，在大多數情況下，我們總是有一部分是從聯邦貸款銀行借來的，而且可能永遠都會，即使在正常情況下，我們也可能有 10 億到 20 億美元，而且我們利用那個。但當收益率曲線像現在這樣倒轉時就不會了。但如果不是，我們通常會利用它。

And so that would get us out of that. So then the next question would be, okay, so where are you going to get your money to fund at least 5% for your loans if you're going to use all that money for their Federal Home Loan Bank. And my point is really -- I hope I said this historically, we always have grown 2% to 4%, and I guess its like a 3% number where we're at with 3%. That's still going to get us around $800 million to $1 billion and additional money here, and I think that's the money we would use for the growth in the loans. I hope I didn't make that too complicated, but that's always in the back of my mind, I'm thinking about that myself.

這樣我們就可以擺脫困境。那麼下一個問題就是，好吧，如果您要將所有這些錢用於他們的聯邦住房貸款銀行，那麼您將從哪裡獲得資金來為您的貸款提供至少 5% 的資金。我的觀點是真的——我希望我在歷史上說過這個，我們總是增長 2% 到 4%，我想它就像一個 3% 的數字，我們現在只有 3%。這仍然會讓我們在這裡獲得大約 8 億至 10 億美元和額外的資金，我認為這是我們將用於增加貸款的資金。我希望我沒有把它弄得太複雜，但這一直在我的腦海中，我自己也在考慮這個問題。

I think it's good to point out that the bulk of the money we had borrowed from the Federal Home Loan Bank was not really because we needed it. It's because we felt like it was prudent to have on hand given what was taking place in the overall market. We didn't know whether somebody was going to come in, in the next 2 minutes and want to pull all their money out as quickly as things were changing.

我認為有必要指出，我們從聯邦住房貸款銀行借的大部分錢並不是真的因為我們需要它。這是因為考慮到整個市場正在發生的事情，我們覺得手頭上的東西是謹慎的。我們不知道是否有人會在接下來的 2 分鐘內進來，並希望在事情發生變化時盡快取出所有資金。

You're referring to the additional $3 billion?

你指的是額外的 30 億美元？

The $3 billion, yes, I don't think we were talking about that. I was saying --

30 億美元，是的，我不認為我們在談論那個。我剛在說 -

I was talking about the core -- the kind of the core FHLB that you have, which if that pushed through.

我在談論核心——你擁有的那種核心 FHLB，如果它能通過的話。

As it turns out, we didn't really need it, but we felt like it was prudent to have it on hand for a while there.

事實證明，我們並不是真的需要它，但我們覺得把它放在手邊一段時間是明智的。

Yes. My comments were all relating to the borrowing.

是的。我的評論都與借款有關。

Yes, that was my question. Yes, thanks for clearing that up David, and then finally for me, I think when you guys announced the 2 deals together, I think you had something in there, 2023 estimated earnings from the combination with 75% cost savings of somewhere around $77 million. Obviously, a lot has changed. Would you mind giving us an update on kind of what you think the banks can contribute to the extent that it has changed? Just kind of wanted to get a sense of kind of contribution from those 2 organizations once they become a part of Prosperity?

是的，那是我的問題。是的，謝謝你澄清大衛，最後對我來說，我想當你們一起宣布這兩項交易時，我認為你們有一些東西，2023 年估計合併後的收益加上 75% 的成本節省約為 7700 萬美元.顯然，發生了很多變化。您介意向我們介紹一下您認為銀行可以為改變的程度做出哪些貢獻的最新情況嗎？只是想在這兩個組織成為 Prosperity 的一部分後獲得某種貢獻感？

Yes. I think on the cost saves, what we announced that we're going to have a combined 25% cost saves on theirs. I think that stays as is, and we're pretty optimistic about it. You're right, the timing has shifted. The 75% was based on the Q1 acquisition, the estimated acquisition. Now since the timing shifted to one, First Capital being May 1, and we're hoping Lone Star being sometime in the second quarter. So it's timing-wise on savings, it does shift a little bit. But on the 25% cost save overall, we expect in the long run that stays as is.

是的。我認為在成本節省方面，我們宣布我們將比他們節省 25% 的成本。我認為保持原樣，我們對此非常樂觀。你說得對，時間變了。 75% 是基於第一季度的收購，估計的收購。現在，由於時間轉移到一個，First Capital 是 5 月 1 日，我們希望 Lone Star 在第二季度的某個時候。所以它在節省時間方面是明智的，它確實發生了一點變化。但從總體上節省 25% 的成本來看，我們預計從長遠來看會保持原樣。

Right. And I think also, like you estimated something $77 million of contribution. Does it make sense just given what's happened to haircut that to some degree? And if so, would you -- could you give us any color on maybe kind of how much to think about?

正確的。而且我認為，就像您估計的 7700 萬美元的貢獻一樣。考慮到在某種程度上理髮發生了什麼，這是否有意義？如果是這樣，你能不能給我們一些關於可能需要考慮多少的顏色？

Yes, the day 1 onetime costs and plus the day 2 provision expense, that's going to happen immediately after the merger of the banks. But I did say that they're going to bring in operational expense as they merge. I would expect probably after merger, maybe within -- not maybe the first quarter, but the second quarter right after the acquisition, we should utilize the savings.

是的，第 1 天的一次性成本加上第 2 天的撥備費用，這將在銀行合併後立即發生。但我確實說過，他們將在合併時帶來運營費用。我希望可能在合併之後，也許在 - 不是第一季度，而是收購後的第二季度，我們應該利用節省下來的錢。

I think he's after the revenue income side.

我認為他是在收入方面。

Yes, yes. Exactly, Kevin.

是的是的。沒錯，凱文。

Just trying to interpret there for you, Brad.

布拉德，我只是想為你翻譯一下。

Well, I think -- I don't think there's been really a significant change in the profiles of these 2 banks. It makes people think it might have occurred. The party is not over yet, so to speak. So we have to look at it day by day, week by week. But their balance sheets haven't been altered significantly and their P&Ls haven't been altered significantly so far.

好吧，我認為 - 我認為這兩家銀行的概況並沒有真正發生重大變化。它使人們認為它可能已經發生了。派對還沒有結束，可以這麼說。所以我們必須日復一日、周復一周地審視它。但到目前為止，他們的資產負債表沒有發生重大變化，損益表也沒有發生重大變化。

Yes, so far. And I think what the estimates we had on other loan markups and all that stays the same. I didn't think there was a significant change. That should bring in the income that we expected. I don't think there was a significant shift in their estimate.

是的，到目前為止。而且我認為我們對其他貸款加價的估計以及所有這些都保持不變。我認為沒有重大變化。這應該會帶來我們預期的收入。我認為他們的估計沒有重大變化。

It's just the delay, Brad. That's really the only thing.

這只是延遲，布拉德。這真的是唯一的事情。

The next question comes from Michael Rose with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Michael Rose 和 Raymond James。

Kevin, I would be remiss if I didn't ask about the warehouse. This quarter's average volume was a little bit higher than which is kind of contemplated 90 days ago. Just wanted to get any sort of thoughts as we kind of move forward just given the dynamics out there.

凱文，如果我不問倉庫的事，那我就失職了。本季度的平均交易量略高於 90 天前的預期。只是想在我們向前邁進時得到任何想法，只是考慮到那裡的動態。

Yes. Thank you, Michael. You're right. I think we said in January, we thought we'd average $550 million to $600 million for the quarter. I will tell you in February, I was thinking it was not even going to get the $550 million and was worried about it, but we ended up average in $618 million because it truly rallied from in the last 45 days of the quarter, ending up at $799 million, almost $800 million at quarter end. I'm going to go with $800 million to $850 million for the quarter, Michael. I think it's -- we're averaging right now about $770 million through the first 26 days of the quarter, 25 days of the quarter. And I think it will pick up from there. So if I had to pick a number, $825 million.

是的。謝謝你，邁克爾。你說得對。我想我們在一月份說過，我們認為本季度的平均收入為 5.5 億至 6 億美元。我會在 2 月告訴你，我當時認為它甚至不會得到 5.5 億美元並且很擔心，但我們最終平均達到 6.18 億美元，因為它在本季度的最後 45 天真正反彈，最終7.99 億美元，季度末接近 8 億美元。邁克爾，我打算在本季度投入 8 億至 8.5 億美元。我認為這是 - 在本季度的前 26 天，本季度的 25 天，我們現在平均約為 7.7 億美元。我認為它會從那裡開始。因此，如果我必須選擇一個數字，那就是 8.25 億美元。

Okay. That's very, very helpful. Just one minor question for Asylbek. The other noninterest income was up $2 million, almost $3 million. Just wanted to see if there was anything specific that was in there and if anything, will come out from a run rate perspective?

好的。這非常非常有幫助。 Asylbek 只是一個小問題。其他非利息收入增加了 200 萬美元，接近 300 萬美元。只是想看看那裡是否有任何具體內容，如果有的話，會從運行率的角度來看嗎？

Yes, we had some one-off items. The annual incentives and one-off income that we have, and some of them comes annually, some of them was just one time. So it wasn't anything in particular.

是的，我們有一些一次性物品。我們擁有的年度激勵和一次性收入，其中一些是每年都有的，有些只是一次。所以這沒什麼特別的。

Okay. So maybe a few million bucks in one-timers?

好的。那麼一次性可能要幾百萬美元？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Maybe just finally for me. Just given where the capital ratio is, I mean you guys have lots of capital, you're doing 2 deals as we kind of go through this and just wanted to get a sense for buyback from here. You guys did buy back a little bit of shares. I assume you pause when everything started to happen, but just given more capital, I just wanted to get your appetite just given where the stock is? And then just wanted to get a sense from an acquisition point of view. I know you said conversations that maybe slowed down a little bit, but just wanted to see if you look at any of the banks that have failed or maybe some stress situations, if they'd be of interest to you?

好的。也許最後對我來說。就資本比率而言，我的意思是你們有很多資本，你們正在做兩筆交易，因為我們正在經歷這件事，只是想從這裡了解回購。你們確實回購了一些股票。我想當一切開始發生時你會停下來，但只要有更多的資金，我只是想根據股票的位置來滿足你的胃口？然後只是想從收購的角度了解一下。我知道你說的談話可能會放慢一點，但只是想看看你是否看過任何一家倒閉的銀行，或者可能有一些壓力情況，你是否會對它們感興趣？

First, this is David. I'll address the capital issue. As you know, we've always -- again, we've always used our capital really to try to increase dividends and really use in the M&A game. And then we use the rest of the money if we use the money extra, we felt the stock was really disproportionate. I don't think that any of that's going to change as far as the dividends go. I mean, that's first and foremost, that seems like our directors really like that.

首先，這是大衛。我會解決資本問題。如您所知，我們一直 - 再說一次，我們總是真正地使用我們的資本來嘗試增加股息並真正用於併購遊戲。然後我們用剩下的錢，如果我們用額外的錢，我們覺得股票真的不成比例。就股息而言，我認為這些都不會改變。我的意思是，這首先也是最重要的，我們的董事似乎真的很喜歡這樣。

Acquisitions, we'll continue to do that. I don't see that stopping. As far as buying a stock or a lot of our own stock, a lot of it. I think some of that's going to depend on regulations or regulatory bodies if they ever say anything. So instead of making a commitment that we're going to just continue to buy and buy, I don't want to do that. I think in a stressful -- more stressful time like this, I think we have to look from the regulatory bodies, what they're going to say about it.

收購，我們將繼續這樣做。我沒有看到停止。至於購買股票或大量我們自己的股票，很多。我認為其中一些將取決於法規或監管機構，如果他們說什麼的話。因此，與其做出我們將繼續購買和購買的承諾，我不想那樣做。我認為在這樣一個充滿壓力——壓力更大的時期，我認為我們必須從監管機構那裡了解他們將對此發表的看法。

But my general overall feeling is that we still make good money. We still have -- we pay the dividends, and we still have quite a bit left. So I think that and as your HTM loss goes the other way over the year to 2, in the long run -- I guess in the long run, I would say, I don't see it changing a whole lot unless regulatory agencies come in and say, you shouldn't be doing that or something like that.

但我的總體感覺是我們仍然賺了很多錢。我們仍然有——我們支付股息，我們還有很多。所以我認為，隨著你的 HTM 損失在一年中以相反的方式變為 2，從長遠來看 - 我想從長遠來看，我會說，除非監管機構來，否則我認為它不會發生很大變化並說，你不應該那樣做或類似的事情。

The next question comes from Brett Rabatin with Hovde Group.

下一個問題來自 Hovde Group 的 Brett Rabatin。

Wanted to ask on the fee income side. The other bucket, obviously, had a little bit of noise this quarter. I was just curious, Asylbek, was there anything that you would call out that would be nonrecurring? Or can you give us maybe some color on the other income bucket and how you think that might play out from here?

想問一下費用收入方面。顯然，另一個桶在本季度出現了一些噪音。我只是好奇，Asylbek，有沒有什麼你會說是非經常性的？或者你能給我們一些關於其他收入桶的顏色嗎？你認為這可能會從這裡發揮作用嗎？

Yes. I think -- yes, we had one-off items. If I would have to tell that, I would say, a couple of million dollars was a one-off item that did not come in or that came in and the rest of them will be more continued, repetitive from that bucket.

是的。我想——是的，我們有一次性物品。如果我不得不說，我會說，幾百萬美元是一次性的項目，沒有進來或進來了，其餘的將更加持續，從那個桶中重複。

Okay. And then could you give any update on the cash flow on the securities portfolio? What you might have maturing in the next quarter or 2?

好的。然後您能否提供有關證券投資組合現金流量的最新信息？您可能會在下一季度或第二季度成熟什麼？

I mean our cash flow is $2.2 billion. So if you -- the projections, I mean, if you take it at the quarter, I mean, we expect about what $550 million or so a quarter.

我的意思是我們的現金流量是 22 億美元。因此，如果你 - 預測，我的意思是，如果你在本季度進行預測，我的意思是，我們預計每個季度約為 5.5 億美元。

Yes, I don't think that's changed. I mean we're still around $2.2 billion.

是的，我認為這沒有改變。我的意思是我們仍然在 22 億美元左右。

Okay. Great. And then just lastly, some of the more conservative banks seem like it might be an opportunity for them to maybe take share through this situation. But it seems like some of the conservative players have said, no, we're going to wait and see how maybe this plays out. I'm just curious, David or Kevin, this environment as you see it. Is this an opportunity to maybe take share? Or do you just stick to your guns and get more conservative? Have you increased your underwriting standards at all or change them? Any thoughts on that?

好的。偉大的。最後，一些較為保守的銀行似乎認為這可能是他們在這種情況下分享份額的機會。但似乎一些保守的玩家說，不，我們將拭目以待，看看結果如何。我只是好奇，大衛或凱文，你看到的這個環境。這是一個分享的機會嗎？還是您只是堅持己見並變得更加保守？您是否提高或更改了承保標準？對此有什麼想法嗎？

I think we will take share without having to change our underwriting standards. Brett, there's enough pencils down, banks that are loaned up, fully loaned up, 90%, 100%, 100-plus percent loan-to-deposit ratio, and they are generally speaking, their pencils down or maybe a deal pays off, they can do a new deal, but if they're not active and I think as Tim said a little earlier, we're seeing opportunities from really good clients that we historically would not have banked because either the structure was too loose or the pricing was too low. Those clients are now coming to us and we're able to get our structure and our pricing on those transactions.

我認為我們將在不必改變我們的承保標準的情況下獲得份額。布雷特，已經有足夠多的鉛筆放下了，銀行貸款增加了，全部貸款了，90%、100%、100% 以上的貸存比率，一般來說，他們的鉛筆放下了，或者也許一筆交易得到了回報，他們可以做一個新的交易，但如果他們不積極，我認為正如蒂姆早些時候所說的那樣，我們看到了來自非常好的客戶的機會，我們在歷史上不會銀行，因為結構過於寬鬆或定價太低了。這些客戶現在來找我們，我們能夠獲得這些交易的結構和定價。

So I think this -- for us, this is no different than any other time during stress. We tend to do well. We tend to have liquidity and have the money to a loan. So I think on the loan side, we're in a position to take market share as we want.

所以我認為這 - 對我們來說，這與壓力期間的任何其他時間都沒有什麼不同。我們傾向於做得很好。我們往往有流動性，有錢貸款。所以我認為在貸款方面，我們能夠按照我們的意願佔據市場份額。

Yes, I'd have to say in my long time in banking, even when I sit in loan committee, and I see what's being asked down on some of these projects, commercial projects, I've never seen that in my career that you could get that much down and people would still do it. And I think it's just because they're just -- as the deposits have flowed out of a lot of these midsized banks, they just don't have the deposits to fund it. So I think we will have opportunities. This is the time that we should and this is the time we actually look forward to.

是的，我不得不說，在我長期從事銀行業的過程中，即使我在貸款委員會任職，我也看到了對其中一些項目、商業項目的要求，我在我的職業生涯中從未見過你可以降低那麼多，人們仍然會這樣做。而且我認為這只是因為他們只是 - 由於存款已經從許多這些中型銀行流出，他們只是沒有存款來為其提供資金。所以我認為我們會有機會。這是我們應該的時間，也是我們真正期待的時間。

Brett, it's not uncommon for us today to get 50% to 55% equity upfront on a multifamily yield. And all those dollars go in before we fund $1. And as David said, a long time since we've seen that kind of equity, but we're asking for it, and we're generally getting it.

布雷特，對於我們今天來說，以多戶住宅收益預付 50% 至 55% 的股權並不少見。在我們資助 1 美元之前，所有這些美元都投入了。正如大衛所說，很長一段時間以來我們已經看到這種公平，但我們正在要求它，而且我們通常會得到它。

And it's real equity.

這是真正的公平。

That's real hard dollar.

那是真正的硬美元。

It's the cost, not -- it's real based on cost.

這是成本，而不是——它是基於成本的。

That's pretty low for the multifamily market.

這對於多戶家庭市場來說是相當低的。

The next question comes from Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

I wanted to ask about NIM going into next quarter. You noted that the portfolios that you're acquiring will have an impact on NIM. Presumably, there will be a tailwind because you're acquiring them at end market price. Any thoughts on what the NIM can get to next quarter with the acquisitions? Would you be able to go over 3% in the next quarter?

我想問下 NIM 進入下個季度的情況。你注意到你正在收購的投資組合將對 NIM 產生影響。大概會有順風，因為您是以最終市場價格收購它們。關於 NIM 下個季度可以通過收購獲得什麼有什麼想法嗎？你能在下個季度超過 3% 嗎？

I think it will be hard to specifically point out because we still have to go through the merger process and evaluation. But we're excited about the 2 acquisition because of cash they're bringing and a vast ability to reprice their bond portfolio and their mortgage portfolio. So I mean, I cannot give you specific guidance, especially because of the fair value income that we have to calculate and that is getting amortized based on the duration of loans or the life of the loans. So -- but we're optimistic where we stand on it.

我認為很難具體指出，因為我們仍然要經過合併過程和評估。但我們對 2 的收購感到興奮，因為他們帶來了現金，並且具有為債券投資組合和抵押貸款投資組合重新定價的強大能力。所以我的意思是，我不能給你具體的指導，特別是因為我們必須計算公允價值收入，並且根據貸款期限或貸款期限進行攤銷。所以 - 但我們對我們的立場持樂觀態度。

I think you could say that once we get both closed and in our bank that should help the net interest margin, I would say that.

我想你可以說，一旦我們關閉並進入我們的銀行，這應該有助於淨息差，我會這麼說。

Yes, that's for sure.

是的，這是肯定的。

That's helpful. And then maybe on the loan yields in the core business, in the current business, you noted that you have acquired newer customers, presumably at better pricing. You have a fixed rate portfolio as well that should reprice higher. So in the event that the Fed stays higher for longer, how should we think about your loan yields over the course of the next year or so?

這很有幫助。然後也許在核心業務的貸款收益率上，在當前業務中，你注意到你已經獲得了新客戶，大概是在更好的定價下。您也有一個固定利率的投資組合，應該重新定價更高。因此，如果美聯儲維持高利率的時間更長，我們應該如何考慮未來一年左右的貸款收益率？

Well, our models show that if interest rates stay higher or even go up, we still perform better from an income standpoint and a net interest margin.

好吧，我們的模型表明，如果利率保持較高甚至上升，從收入和淨息差的角度來看，我們的表現仍然更好。

Yes. If you just look at our NIM calculation, because our bond portfolio is generating right now $524 million and we're putting new loans that Kevin handles right now. If you just take it and if rate stays for the next 12, 24 months in this rate, you can see there's upside of 200 basis points on loans. I mean that's --

是的。如果你只看一下我們的 NIM 計算，因為我們的債券投資組合現在產生了 5.24 億美元，而且我們正在投放凱文現在處理的新貸款。如果你接受它，如果利率在接下來的 12、24 個月內保持在這個利率水平，你可以看到貸款有 200 個基點的上升空間。我的意思是——

Our models are usually really good and they're correct. And I think that basically, if rates don't do anything, we still do substantially better and improvement in net interest margin over 12, 24 and 36, I mean substantial -- and if interest rates go up, our models show that we even do better than that. I think if they go down, if interest rates go down, it probably takes a little bit away from us.

我們的模型通常非常好而且是正確的。我認為基本上，如果利率沒有任何作用，我們仍然做得更好，淨息差超過 12、24 和 36，我的意思是顯著 - 如果利率上升，我們的模型表明我們甚至做得更好。我認為如果它們下降，如果利率下降，我們可能會失去一點。

Yes, because of the composition of our loan portfolio.

是的，因為我們貸款組合的構成。

I think if interest rates went down and forgot 100 basis points or so, I don't think that they will, but if they did, that doesn't give us a positive effect. But still in 100 down, we still have a substantial increase in our NIM over time.

我認為如果利率下降並忘記了 100 個基點左右，我認為他們不會，但如果他們這樣做了，那不會給我們帶來積極的影響。但仍然在 100 下降，隨著時間的推移，我們的 NIM 仍然有大幅增加。

Did you say over what time frame that 200 basis points can come in?

你說200個基點可以在什麼時間範圍內進來？

I think that your net interest margin looks a lot better in 12 months. It looks better in -- real good in 24 months and fantastic in 36 months.

我認為您的淨息差在 12 個月後看起來好多了。它在 24 個月後看起來更好，在 36 個月後看起來很棒。

Got it. All right. And if I can just round out that discussion, how should we think about the efficiency ratio, given what you said on NIM and loan growth and the merit increases coming up?

知道了。好的。如果我可以結束討論，考慮到你對 NIM 和貸款增長以及即將到來的績效增長所說的話，我們應該如何考慮效率比？

So I think efficiency ratio, if you just look at the long term, it will take us time to -- once we have 2 banks merger with us, realize the cost savings. But in the long run, I think we're going to be back to our normal 42%, 43%, 44% efficiency ratio in the long term.

所以我認為效率比率，如果你只著眼於長期，我們將需要時間 - 一旦我們有 2 家銀行與我們合併，實現成本節約。但從長遠來看，我認為我們將長期恢復到正常的 42%、43%、44% 的效率比。

The next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I was just following up --

我只是在跟進——

Evan, did you change your name?

埃文，你改名了嗎？

This is Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

我是美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I thought it was Evan. I thought you changed it.

我以為是埃文。我以為你改了

Yes, she did say Evan. You're not wrong, David. You're right. I let it flying.

是的，她確實說了埃文。你沒有看錯，大衛。你說得對。我讓它飛起來。

Sorry about that.

對於那個很抱歉。

I guess I can't pass off as an Evan.

我想我不能冒充埃文。

That's not a bad idea. You got to change it. It's easier to pronounce Evan.

這不是一個壞主意。你必須改變它。 Evan 的發音更容易。

So a question around the NIM. One, did you talk about -- and sorry if I missed it around the core -- ex the acquisitions, do you see the NIM going -- drifting higher from here when we think about 2Q and rest of the year from the 293 this quarter?

所以一個關於NIM的問題。第一，你有沒有談過——如果我錯過了核心——抱歉，收購，你看到 NIM 會走嗎——當我們考慮第二季度和今年剩餘時間時，從本季度的 293 點開始走高？

Yes. I mean as we talked about in the long term, it's very positive. I think in the short term, the headwind we have on the interest-bearing deposit a little bit, it will be a little bit maybe down but that's on the Prosperity Bank itself without acquisition. But with the 2 acquisitions, looks really good with adding 2 banks to our balance sheet.

是的。我的意思是，從長遠來看，這是非常積極的。我認為在短期內，我們對生息存款的逆風有點小，它可能會下降一點，但這是在繁榮銀行本身沒有收購的情況下。但是通過 2 次收購，在我們的資產負債表中增加 2 家銀行看起來真的很好。

It helps. It still -- it helps us in the short run to that and in the long term, it really helps us. We're talking about very short period. Without it, it wouldn't look as good your like.

它有助於。它仍然 - 它在短期內幫助我們，從長遠來看，它確實幫助了我們。我們談論的是非常短的時期。沒有它，它就不會像您喜歡的那樣好看。

And just on that point, David, I think you mentioned multiple times around -- on the last question, if rates go down 100 or 200 basis points, when you think about when it can look good or I think you said fantastic over the next 2 to 3 years, are you -- is it the Fed funds that matters more than the 2- to 5-year part of the curve? Just remind us, we could see a scenario where the Fed funds drops maybe over the next year or 2, but the value of the curve remains where it is. So if you can talk to where the sensitivity might be most?

就這一點，大衛，我想你多次提到過——關於最後一個問題，如果利率下降 100 或 200 個基點，當你考慮什麼時候它看起來不錯或者我認為你在下一個問題上說太棒了2 到 3 年，你 - 是聯邦基金比曲線的 2 到 5 年部分更重要嗎？請提醒我們，我們可能會看到這樣一種情況，即聯邦基金可能在未來一兩年內下降，但曲線的價值仍保持在原位。那麼，您是否可以談談最敏感的地方？

Ours is just repricing. It's just -- I mean, you've got your bond portfolio is repricing $2.2 billion a year. Our loans reprice or roll off, historically, it's been 1/3 about $6 billion. So just between those 2 you have about $8 billion or $9 billion changing in pricing in a year's time.

我們只是重新定價。這只是——我的意思是，你的債券投資組合每年重新定價 22 億美元。我們的貸款重新定價或滾存，從歷史上看，它是 60 億美元的 1/3。因此，僅在這兩者之間，一年內您就有大約 80 億美元或 90 億美元的定價變化。

Got it. And one last question. When you think about more big picture in terms of the economic outlook, you mentioned some of these other banks that are tight on loan-to-deposit ratios, et cetera, pulling back it's good for Prosperity. But overall, like do you see that adding to accelerating our pace of going into a recession? Like how do you think about just the macro outlook as you think about the next 6 to 12 months?

知道了。最後一個問題。當你從經濟前景的角度考慮更宏觀的情況時，你提到了其他一些銀行在貸存比率方面很嚴格，等等，撤回它對繁榮有好處。但總的來說，你認為這會加速我們進入衰退的步伐嗎？比如您如何看待未來 6 到 12 個月的宏觀前景？

Well, I'd say it does pull back. But again, when I look at the Texas economy, and I guess I think Texas may be more regional in perspective compared to the rest of the economy. I don't see a hard recession. I don't. That's just me. I think you may see a slowdown. But when you look at people, the customers are still spending money out there. Housing, they're still buying housing. Some of the markets, even in house. Some markets have gone down a little bit in value, but still -- people still needing houses. You have people moving into the state. I mean I think Texas is probably in a pretty good position. I don't see a really hard recession. I don't. I may be wrong. And I don't have anything in the back of my name to say I know what I'm saying, but just my gut feeling, just my gut feeling is.

好吧，我會說它確實會退縮。但同樣，當我審視德克薩斯州的經濟時，我想我認為與其他經濟體相比，德克薩斯州可能更具區域性。我沒有看到嚴重的衰退。我不。這就是我。我想你可能會看到放緩。但是當你看人的時候，顧客仍然在那里花錢。住房，他們還在買房。一些市場，甚至在內部。一些市場的價值有所下降，但仍然——人們仍然需要房子。你有人搬進了這個州。我的意思是我認為得克薩斯州可能處於非常有利的位置。我沒有看到真正嚴重的衰退。我不。我可能是錯的。我的名字後面沒有任何東西可以說我知道我在說什麼，但只是我的直覺，只是我的直覺。

The bank -- the way it was going, it was just overblown, everything was overblown. I still think things need to slow down a little bit more, quite frankly, so that the Fed doesn't raise rates. But my gut feeling is that the Fed will raise rates again in May by at least a quarter of a point. But then I think they probably will hold off. But again, for the most part, you don't see things just crashing, I don't see that. I don't -- not yet. I mean, I think things still look pretty good and people are still buying.

銀行——它的發展方向，它只是被誇大了，一切都被誇大了。坦率地說，我仍然認為事情需要再放慢一點，這樣美聯儲才不會加息。但我的直覺是，美聯儲將在 5 月份再次加息至少 25 個基點。但我認為他們可能會推遲。但同樣，在大多數情況下，您看不到事情只是崩潰，我看不到。我沒有——還沒有。我的意思是，我認為情況看起來仍然不錯，人們仍在購買。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Charlotte Rasche for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Charlotte Rasche 作閉幕詞。

Thank you. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for taking the time to participate in our call today. We appreciate your support of our company, and we will continue to work on building shareholder value.

謝謝。女士們先生們，感謝您抽出時間參加我們今天的電話會議。感謝您對我們公司的支持，我們將繼續致力於創造股東價值。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may all now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。你們現在可能都斷開連接了。