Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the PAA and PAGP first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 PAA 和 PAGP 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Blake Fernandez, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係副總裁布萊克費爾南德斯 (Blake Fernandez)。請繼續。

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, and welcome to Plains All American first quarter 2025 earnings call. Today's slide presentation is posted on the Investor Relations website under the News and Events section at ir.plains.com. An audio replay will also be available following today's call.

謝謝你，米歇爾。早安，歡迎參加 Plains All American 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天的幻燈片簡報發佈在投資者關係網站的新聞和活動部分，網址為 ir.plains.com。今天的電話會議結束後還將提供音訊重播。

Important disclosures regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures are provided on slide 2, an overview of today's call is provided on slide 3, a condensed consolidating balance sheet for PAGP and other reference materials are in the appendix.

投影片 2 提供了有關前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 財務指標的重要揭露，投影片 3 提供了今天電話會議的概述，附錄中提供了 PAGP 的簡明合併資產負債表和其他參考資料。

Today's call will be hosted by Willie Chiang, Chairman and CEO; Al Swanson, Executive Vice President and CFO, along with other members of the management team.

今天的電話會議將由董事長兼執行長 Willie Chiang 主持；執行副總裁兼財務長 Al Swanson 以及管理團隊的其他成員。

With that, I will turn the call over to Willie.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給威利。

Thank you, Blake. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. This morning, we reported solid first quarter performance, with an adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains of $754 million, which Al will cover in more detail.

謝謝你，布萊克。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。今天上午，我們報告了穩健的第一季業績，其中歸屬於 Plains 的調整後 EBITDA 為 7.54 億美元，Al 將對此進行更詳細的介紹。

Before providing an update on our efficient growth initiatives, I'd like to offer some thoughts on the current market and policy environment. The ongoing uncertainty on trade tariffs is weighing on economic forecasts and creating significant volatility.

在介紹我們的高效成長舉措的最新情況之前，我想先談談對當前市場和政策環境的一些看法。貿易關稅的持續不確定性正在影響經濟預測並造成巨大波動。

Additionally, the dissension among OPEC members and the prospects of incremental supply coming to market has resulted in a lower price commodity than anticipated at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, we believe a lower price environment will ultimately reinforce the cyclical nature of the commodity markets, leading to a constructive medium to long-term outlook.

此外，石油輸出國組織成員國之間的分歧以及市場供應增加的前景導致商品價格低於年初的預期。儘管如此，我們認為較低的價格環境最終將強化大宗商品市場的周期性，從而帶來積極的中長期前景。

Slide 4 outlines several supply and demand dynamics that we believe will contribute to a supportive backdrop over time. Despite the given -- in the current market volatility, our business remains resilient. Assuming a $60 to $65 WT environment persists for the remainder of the year, we would expect both our 2025 EBITDA guidance and Permian growth outlook could be in the lower half of the respective ranges. Our NGL segment remains largely insulated from lower commodity prices, with approximately 80% of our estimated C3+ Spec products sales hedged for 2025.

投影片 4 概述了我們認為隨著時間的推移將有助於形成支持性背景的幾種供需動態。儘管存在當前市場波動的情況，但我們的業務仍然保持彈性。假設 60 美元至 65 美元的 WT 環境在今年剩餘時間內持續存在，我們預計 2025 年 EBITDA 指引和二疊紀成長前景可能處於各自範圍的下半部分。我們的 NGL 部門基本上不受大宗商品價格下跌的影響，我們預計 2025 年 C3+ Spec 產品銷售額中約有 80% 已進行對沖。

In this environment, we believe it's important, more important than ever to remain focused on what we can control. As a result, we continue to execute on our efficient growth strategy, generating significant free cash flow, maintaining a highly flexible balance sheet where our leverage ratio remains towards the low end of our target range and returning capital to our unitholders.

在這種環境下，我們認為，專注於我們能夠控制的事情比以往任何時候都更重要。因此，我們繼續執行高效的成長策略，產生大量自由現金流，保持高度靈活的資產負債表，使我們的槓桿率保持在目標範圍的低端，並向我們的單位持有人返還資本。

Turning to a few highlights. In our NGL segment, our transition to more fee-based earnings continues with our 30,000 barrel a day fractionation bottleneck project at Fort Sask having been placed into service during the second quarter, along with other expansions of our NGL and condensate gathering systems being completed throughout the year. These projects are supported by long-term customer commitments and enhance our integrated NGL value chain.

談幾個亮點。在我們的 NGL 部門，我們繼續向更多基於費用的盈利轉型，位於 Fort Sask 的每天 30,000 桶的分餾瓶頸項目已於第二季度投入使用，同時我們的 NGL 和凝析油收集系統的其他擴建工程也將於全年完成。這些項目得到了長期客戶承諾的支持，並增強了我們的綜合 NGL 價值鏈。

In our crude segment, we had two small strategic transactions. We acquired the remaining 50% equity in the Cheyenne Pipeline in the Rockies, this asset serves as a vital connection between Guernsey and downstream crude oil pipelines, Saddlehorn and White Cliffs, which Plains owns an equity interest in. In May, we acquired Black Knight Midstream, a Midland Basin crude gathering system for approximately $55 million. Both transactions complement our existing asset base and build upon our track record of successful bolt-on transactions.

在我們的原油領域，我們有兩筆小型策略交易。我們收購了落基山脈夏延輸油管剩餘的 50% 股權，該資產是根西島與下游原油管道 Saddlehorn 和 White Cliffs 之間的重要連接，Plains 擁有這些管道的股權。 5 月，我們以約 5,500 萬美元收購了米德蘭盆地原油收集系統 Black Knight Midstream。這兩筆交易補充了我們現有的資產基礎，並以我們成功的附加交易記錄為基礎。

As shown on slide 5, over the last several years, we've successfully deployed approximately $1.3 billion into bolt-on acquisitions. We continue to believe these opportunities present attractive risk-adjusted returns, and our balance sheet flexibility provides financial capacity to continue to progressing the opportunity set.

如投影片 5 所示，在過去幾年中，我們已成功投入約 13 億美元用於附加收購。我們仍然相信這些機會能夠帶來具有吸引力的經風險調整後的回報，而我們的資產負債表靈活性則提供了繼續推進這些機會的財務能力。

Before turning the call over to Al, I do want to say thank you and acknowledge our colleague, Harry Pefanis, our President and Co-Founder of the company. Harry's played an integral part in building Plains since its inception decades ago. We're very thankful for its relentless focus on developing lasting relationships, customer service, and operational excellence, together with an unwavering commitment to integrity, accountability and teamwork. We wish Harry the very, very best in his retirement.

在將電話轉給 Al 之前，我想先向我們的同事，公司總裁兼聯合創始人 Harry Pefanis 表示感謝。自幾十年前 Plains 成立以來，Harry's 一直在其建設中發揮著不可或缺的作用。我們非常感謝它對發展持久關係、客戶服務和卓越營運的不懈關注，以及對誠信、責任和團隊合作的堅定承諾。我們祝福哈利退休後一切順利。

With that, I'll turn the call over to you, Al.

說完這些，我就把電話交給你了，艾爾。

Thanks, Willie. We reported first quarter crude oil segment adjusted EBITDA of $559 million, which was impacted by winter weather and higher-than-expected refinery downtime. These events drove volumes below expectations in the quarter. However, we have seen a recovery in April and May with a healthy ramp in our gathering volumes across our system.

謝謝，威利。我們報告第一季原油部門調整後的 EBITDA 為 5.59 億美元，受到冬季天氣和煉油廠停工時間超出預期的影響。這些事件導致本季的銷量低於預期。然而，我們在四月和五月看到了復甦，整個系統的收集量出現了健康成長。

Moving to our NGL segment. We reported segment adjusted EBITDA of $189 million, which benefited from higher frac spreads and NGL sales volumes driven by stronger order flows. Slide 6 and 7 in today's presentation contains segment adjusted EBITDA walk that provide additional details on our first quarter performance.

前往我們的 NGL 部分。我們報告的分部調整後 EBITDA 為 1.89 億美元，這得益於訂單流增加帶來的壓裂價差和 NGL 銷售量的增加。今天簡報中的第 6 張和第 7 張投影片包含分部調整後的 EBITDA 步數，提供了有關我們第一季業績的更多詳細資訊。

With regard to trade tariffs, I would like to provide an update since our last earnings call. Currently, the energy product imported into the United States from our Canadian operations are exempt under the USMCA, limiting the direct impact of tariffs on our business. While there is a fair amount of uncertainty in the markets today, you will see on slide 8, we left our key assumptions unchanged for the year, including a $75 per barrel WTI price and 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day of year-over-year Permian growth. Key sensitivities are provided within the slide, allowing investors to analyze various scenarios.

關於貿易關稅，我想提供自上次財報電話會議以來的最新情況。目前，從我們的加拿大業務進口到美國的能源產品根據 USMCA 是免稅的，這限制了關稅對我們業務的直接影響。雖然當今市場存在相當大的不確定性，但您會在第 8 張幻燈片上看到，我們維持了今年的關鍵假設不變，包括 WTI 價格為每桶 75 美元，二疊紀盆地產量同比增長 200,000 至 300,000 桶/天。幻燈片中提供了關鍵的敏感度因素，以便投資者分析各種情境。

As illustrated on slide 9, we expect to generate strong cash flow this year, with adjusted free cash flow of about $1.1 billion, which excludes changes in assets and liabilities, and is reduced by approximately $635 million for acquisitions.

如第 9 張投影片所示，我們預計今年將產生強勁的現金流，調整後的自由現金流約為 11 億美元，不包括資產和負債的變化，並因收購而減少約 6.35 億美元。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Willie.

說完這些，我就把電話轉回給威利。

Thank you, Al. We're off to a solid start for the year, albeit in a more volatile and uncertain market. As shown on slide 10, we continue to make progress on our key financial objectives, and are well positioned to execute our strategy in a highly volatile environment.

謝謝你，艾爾。儘管市場更加動盪和不確定，但我們今年的開局仍然良好。如投影片 10 所示，我們在關鍵財務目標方面繼續取得進展，並且有能力在高度動盪的環境中執行我們的策略。

In summary, our strong balance sheet offers financial capacity and flexibility. We continue to demonstrate capital discipline while executing on our efficient growth strategy, including our focus on bolt-on acquisitions, and we remain committed to returning cash to our unitholders.

總之，我們強大的資產負債表提供了財務能力和靈活性。我們在執行高效成長策略（包括專注於附加收購）的同時，繼續表現出資本紀律，並且我們仍然致力於向我們的單位持有人返還現金。

Before we hand back to Blake. Harry, would you like to make a few comments?

在我們把交還給布萊克之前。哈利，你想發表一些評論嗎？

Yes. Thank you. Willie, I appreciate that. And just before we go to Q&A, first, I'd like to thank Willie for his kind remarks and his leadership. I've enjoyed working with him over the last 10 years. He has a great team, and I can tell you the team is as strong as it's ever been. I'd also like to thank all of you for joining us on our quarterly earnings call and your continued interest in Plains.

是的。謝謝。威利，我很感激。在我們進入問答環節之前，首先，我要感謝威利的善意評論和他的領導。過去十年來我很榮幸能與他共事。他有一支出色的團隊，我可以告訴你，這支球隊比以往任何時候都更強大。我還要感謝大家參加我們的季度財報電話會議以及對 Plains 的持續關注。

With that, I'll turn it over to Blake to lead us into Q&A.

接下來，我將把時間交給布萊克來帶領我們進入問答環節。

Thanks, Harry. And again, congrats. (Event Instructions) Michelle, I think we're ready to go to the Q&A session, please.

謝謝，哈利。再次恭喜你。 （活動說明）米歇爾，我想我們已經準備好進入問答環節了。

(Operator Instructions) Gabriel Moreen, Mizuho.

（操作員指示）瑞穗的 Gabriel Moreen。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Congrats to Harry on the retirement and an excellent career at Plains. Wanted to ask first about capital allocation in the current environment. It seems like you're still committed to the distribution growth in 2026. But given volatility in the unit price and the light, was wondering if there's any thoughts on the shift -- shifting of a mindset to maybe spend more on buybacks versus distribution growth, again, given all the volatility out there?

嘿，大家早安。恭喜 Harry 退休並在 Plains 擁有出色的職業生涯。首先想問一下目前環境下的資本配置。看起來您仍然致力於 2026 年分銷的成長。但考慮到單價和照明的波動性，我想知道您是否考慮過轉變思路，可能將更多的資金用於回購而不是分銷增長，考慮到目前的所有波動性？

Gabe, this is Al. I'll take a shot at it. No really change in our view with regard. Focus will be -- continue to be on distribution growth as the primary method for returning cash to shareholders. Unit repurchases are a component of our capital allocation, no change there, opportunistic and market dislocation.

加布，這是艾爾。我會嘗試一下。我們對此的看法並沒有真正改變。重點將繼續放在分銷成長上，作為向股東返還現金的主要方法。單位回購是我們資本配置的一部分，沒有變化，機會主義和市場錯位。

We did buy a mall in April, just as we're going into blackout. It was only about $7.5 million worth, I think it was about 475,000 units. It's a component, but I want to say there's been no change in our thinking around opportunistic and market dislocation. So we'll see what the future brings.

我們確實在四月購買了一個商場，就在我們即將停電的時候。它的價值只有大約 750 萬美元，我認為大約有 475,000 個單位。它是一個組成部分，但我想說的是，我們對機會主義和市場錯位的思考沒有改變。因此，我們拭目以待未來會發生什麼事。

Got it. Thanks, Al. I appreciate that. And then maybe if I could ask sort of on the M&A landscape. You've clearly been -- had continued success here with these tuck-in deals. Just with all the volatility out there, the latest you're seeing in terms of whether that volatility is kind of a catalyst to do more deals or you think it's kind of an impediment to price discovery in the current environment?

知道了。謝謝，艾爾。我很感激。然後也許我可以問一下有關併購的情況。顯然，透過這些促銷交易，您已經取得了持續的成功。鑑於目前存在的所有波動性，您最近看到的情況是，這種波動性是否會成為促成更多交易的催化劑，還是會成為當前環境下價格發現的一種障礙？

Yes. Gabe, this is Willie. I'll take that one. Clearly, more volatile markets create a little more questions. And what I would tell you is that good deals always take time to get to win-win. And I think we're positioned very well to be able to do that because of the nature of what we sit in the value chain. We think we still have a pretty ample supply of opportunities out there, and we continue to chase them.

是的。加布，這是威利。我要那個。顯然，市場波動加劇會帶來更多問題。我想告訴你們的是，好的交易總是需要時間才能達到雙贏。我認為，由於我們在價值鏈中所處的地位，我們完全有能力做到這一點。我們認為我們仍然擁有相當充足的機會，我們會繼續追逐它們。

And we'll -- maybe the only other thing to mention is, in an environment like this, capital discipline is absolutely critical, and we've taken a real hard look at risk-adjusted returns, but we expect to be able to get to more win-win deals throughout the year.

我們——也許唯一要提到的是，在這樣的環境下，資本紀律絕對至關重要，我們已經認真審視了風險調整後的回報，但我們預計全年能夠達成更多雙贏的交易。

Appreciate it. Thanks, Willie.

非常感謝。謝謝，威利。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

Good morning. Looks like you were able to bring up your fractionation complex in Canada. So help us understand the cadence of earnings in Canada now that this plant is up and running.

早安.看起來您能夠在加拿大建立分餾綜合體。因此，請幫助我們了解該工廠現已投入營運後加拿大的獲利節奏。

Manav, it's Chris Chandler. So yes, we're excited to bring up the expanded capacity of 30,000 barrels a day at our PFS facility in Edmonton, Alberta. We brought it up just ahead of our new commercial contracts taking effect. They don't all ramp to full volume immediately, they'll ramp over the remainder of this year and a little into next year.

Manav，我是 Chris Chandler。所以是的，我們很高興能夠將位於艾伯塔省埃德蒙頓的 PFS 工廠的產能提高到每天 30,000 桶。我們在新的商業合約生效之前提出了這個問題。他們不會立即全面提升產量，而是在今年剩餘時間和明年的一段時間內逐步提升產量。

This is also part of a multi-project effort where we're doing some additional connectivity and gathering investments along that value chain that will also come online throughout 2025. So I think you'll see that gradually contribute throughout the year and on -- kind of full run rate basis starting in 2026.

這也是多項目努力的一部分，我們正在進行一些額外的連接，並沿著該價值鏈聚集投資，這些投資也將在 2025 年全年上線。所以我認為你會看到它在全年逐漸做出貢獻——從 2026 年開始達到滿載運行率。

Okay. Can you give a few more details about the Black Knight Midstream Permian Basin, the deal you did for about $55 million? The benefits of the deal and why you decided to go ahead with that one?

好的。您能否提供一些有關 Black Knight Midstream Permian Basin 的更多細節？您以約 5500 萬美元的價格完成了這筆交易。這筆交易有什麼好處？為什麼您決定繼續進行這筆交易？

Sure. It's right in the middle of our Northern Midland Basin gathering footprint. It's a position that we operated on behalf of the producer and their affiliates. And we negotiated the transaction with them. It's got some long-term capital synergies helping us to get to other positions that are on the other side of that. It's in the absolute core of the Northern Midland Basin.

當然。它正好位於我們北米德蘭盆地集油區的中央。這是我們代表製片人及其附屬機構運作的職位。我們與他們協商了交易事宜。它具有一些長期的資本協同效應，可以幫助我們達到其他地位。它位於北米德蘭盆地的核心位置。

The producer on the system is one of their top assets. So we feel very comfortable with the rock to resource the inventory, the purchasing multiple that we did. And it's a good -- as Willie said, a win-win, it's a good win for our private equity partner that developed the asset, and it's a great win from playing longer term to own this asset.

該系統的製作人是他們最寶貴的資產之一。因此，我們對岩石庫存資源以及我們所做的購買倍數感到非常滿意。正如威利所說，這是一個很好的雙贏，對於開發該資產的私募股權合作夥伴來說是一個很好的勝利，對於長期擁有該資產來說，這是一個巨大的勝利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Blum, Wells Fargo Securities

麥可布魯姆，富國證券

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Wonder if you can give us your latest thoughts on conversations with producers, what they're telling you, and just your latest outlook on Permian volumes. I realize you kept the guidance, 200,000 to 300,000 barrels, but there's -- where you think that's sort of really trending and also for '26?

謝謝。大家早安。想知道您是否可以告訴我們您與生產商對話的最新想法、他們告訴您的內容以及您對二疊紀產量的最新展望。我知道您保持了 20 萬至 30 萬桶的預期，但是 — — 您認為這是否真的是一種趨勢，對於 26 年來說也是如此？

Sure, Michael. I'll take the '25. But what I can tell you is you've already grown over 100,000 barrels a day from the end of last year to now. So the 200,000 barrels a day does not seem very herculean as a growth expectation for this.

當然，邁克爾。我要 25 號。但我可以告訴你們的是，從去年年底到現在，你們每天的產量已經超過10萬桶。因此，每天 20 萬桶的成長預期似乎不是太艱鉅。

I'd say, by and large, the producers are in a very similar situation. It's a bit of wait and see. The volatility just started a month ago. And so you don't make two or three-year plans based on one month of activity, and you've seen some rebound in it.

我想說，總的來說，生產商的處境非常相似。這還需要等待一段時間才能看到結果。波動一個月前才剛開始。因此，你不會根據一個月的活動制定兩年或三年的計劃，而且你已經看到了一些反彈。

So I think in the next three months, it's a function of time and it's a function of flat pricing. So it's a short period of time at this price. If it sustains for a longer period of time here, you will see some flattening out. If it goes below this, below $55 a barrel you've heard from the producer community, you would start to go to flat and maybe even decline. If it's above $65 for an extended period of time, you'll see it go the other way. You'll see it back to growth.

所以我認為在接下來的三個月裡，這是一個時間函數，也是一個固定定價函數。因此，以這個價格維持的時間很短。如果它在這裡持續較長時間，你會看到一些趨於平穩的情況。如果油價低於這個水平，低於生產商給出的每桶 55 美元，油價就會開始持平，甚至可能下降。如果價格長期高於 65 美元，你會看到它走向另一個方向。你會看到它恢復增長。

So from our standpoint, there's a bit of wait and see at this point. You're right in this position where you shouldn't see much difference in activity for the next three to six months, six-plus months, you might see some deferral of completions and maybe some rigs go down.

因此從我們的角度來看，目前還需要等待一段時間才能看到結果。您說得對，在未來三到六個月甚至更長時間內，活動不會有太大變化，您可能會看到一些完工推遲，也許一些鑽孔機也會停機。

But it's very consistent with what you've heard from the upstream community, that's what they're telling us as well. So like I said, our guidance here is just predicated on what could happen in the price range, but the volatility literally started a month ago. So it's a function of time and price.

但這與您從上游社區聽到的消息非常一致，他們也是這麼告訴我們的。所以就像我說的，我們在這裡的指導只是基於價格範圍內可​​能發生的情況，但波動實際上是在一個月前開始的。所以它是時間和價格的函數。

And Michael, this is Willie. I think the key point on this is when you think about '25, with the sensitivities that we've given, the impacts to us are very modest, could be very modest. And really, the broader thing is to stay engaged and understand what's going on in the rest of the world is going to be a '26-plus issue, if it becomes an issue.

邁克爾，這是威利。我認為，關鍵在於，當你考慮到『25』時，考慮到我們給出的敏感性，對我們造成的影響非常小，可能非常小。實際上，更廣泛的事情是保持參與並了解世界其他地區正在發生的事情，如果它成為一個問題，那將是一個 26 歲以上的問題。

But as we've outlined on our slide deck, I actually think we -- this is just going to reinforce their cyclicality -- the cyclability in the cycles of commodities. As prices go lower, tend to bring more activity in; prices go higher, it's the other way around.

但正如我們在幻燈片中概述的那樣，我實際上認為這只會強化它們的周期性——商品週期的周期性。隨著價格走低，往往會帶來更多的活動；價格上漲，反之亦然。

Great. Understood. Appreciate that. And then second question, I just wanted to ask how should we think about the acquisition multiples you paid for the two bolt-on deals this quarter?

偉大的。明白了。非常感謝。第二個問題，我只是想問一下，我們該如何看待本季您為兩筆附加交易支付的收購倍數？

Jeremy, go ahead and take that.

傑里米，繼續吧。

So as opposed to multiples, they both hit our return thresholds or higher. Willie mentioned capital discipline. The first was a reduction in future MVCs in exchange for taking ownership of the asset from a partner, and we priced in our rates of return there. And we've done as well or better filling the pipeline after the fact that the -- so that's the first one, the gathering transaction.

因此，與倍數相比，它們都達到了我們的回報門檻或更高。威利提到了資本紀律。第一是減少未來的 MVC，以換取從合作夥伴手中獲得資產所有權，我們將我們的回報率計入其中。我們在事後填充管道方面做得同樣好甚至更好——這是第一個，即收集交易。

Once again, our goal is to earn our base return with limited synergy allocation and to compress that multiple with synergies. So I'd say both of them fit the model of the previous 12 acquisitions.

再次強調，我們的目標是透過有限的協同效應分配來獲得基本回報，並透過協同效應壓縮該倍數。所以我認為它們都符合之前 12 次收購的模式。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Jeremy Tonet, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的傑里米·托內特 (Jeremy Tonet)。

Hey, good morning. This is Vrathan Reddy on for Jeremy. The materials highlighted expectations for $300 million to $400 million of annual growth CapEx. Maybe just wondering how you think about CapEx spend at this point and how much might be locked in for 2026?

嘿，早安。這是 Vrathan Reddy 取代 Jeremy 上場的。該資料強調了對每年 3 億至 4 億美元成長資本支出的預期。也許只是想知道您目前如何看待資本支出以及 2026 年可能鎖定多少？

Hi, Robin, this is Chris Chandler. We left our investment capital guidance for 2025 unchanged at $400 million net to Plains. We just wrapped up the expansion project at Fort Sask that we mentioned and we have some related NGL supply and connectivity projects that will happen later this year.

你好，羅賓，我是克里斯錢德勒。我們維持 2025 年投資資本指引不變，仍為 4 億美元淨投資於 Plains。我們剛剛完成了先前提到的 Fort Sask 擴建項目，還有一些相關的 NGL 供應和連接項目將於今年稍後啟動。

On the Permian side, where the rest of our capital is largely allocated, that connection capital and gathering spend is designed to pace our producers, but we do typically schedule that work six to 12 months out. So we're nearly in the 2026 on that segment. But if we were to see a large change in activity from the producers, we could adjust our capital and would obviously do so in response to anything that happens in that area.

在二疊紀盆地方面，我們大部分剩餘的資金都分配到了這裡，這些連接資本和收集支出旨在跟上我們生產商的步伐，但我們通常會將這項工作安排在 6 到 12 個月後。因此，我們即將進入 2026 年這一階段。但如果我們看到生產商的活動發生巨大變化，我們就可以調整資本，並且顯然會對該地區發生的任何事情做出反應。

As for 2026, we haven't and won't provide guidance yet, but we are feeling comfortable that, that capital spend will be in our long-term capital guidance range of $300 million to $400 million net of Plains.

至於 2026 年，我們還沒有提供指導，也不會提供指導，但我們感到放心，資本支出將在我們的長期資本指導範圍內，即平原淨額 3 億美元至 4 億美元。

Got it. And then on the frac spread, for the hedging, it looks like it stepped up to 80%. And just wondering if we could get your latest thoughts on the hedging philosophy this year and moving forward?

知道了。然後，對於壓裂價差而言，對於對沖，它看起來上升到了 80%。我只是想知道我們是否可以了解您對今年及未來對沖理念的最新看法？

Jeremy?

傑里米？

Yes, it's consistent. We take a fundamental view, we recognize the need to maintain steady cash flow, we set targets and we continue to execute. So we're opportunistic around hedging because of the backwardated market were more hits in the front end than the back end, but that's been consistent with the last several years. So I don't think anything has changed in the last several years in the strategy.

是的，它是一致的。我們採取基本觀點，我們認識到保持穩定現金流的必要性，我們設定目標並繼續執行。因此，我們在對沖方面採取了機會主義的做法，因為現貨溢價市場中前端受到的衝擊比後端更大，但這與過去幾年的情況一致。所以我認為過去幾年該戰略沒有任何改變。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sunil Sibal, Seaport Global.

Sunil Sibal，Seaport Global。

Yeah. Hi, good morning, everybody. Congrats to Harry on a successful career at Plains. My first question was related to the sensitivity that was provided with regard to the Permian production. I was curious, is the underlying assumption there that the marginal barrel is moving to a particular market, i.e., pushing or so Houston, and that's kind of a primary driver of that sensitivity?

是的。大家好，早安。恭喜 Harry 在 Plains 取得事業上的成功。我的第一個問題與二疊紀生產的敏感度有關。我很好奇，潛在的假設是否是邊際產量正在流向某個特定的市場，例如推動休士頓，而這是否是這種敏感性的主要驅動因素？

And then is that sensitivity based on your full year volumes? Or obviously, you have almost four months plus of 2025 already is. So we should think about that sensitivity on full year volumes or more like eight months volumes?

那麼這種敏感度是否基於您的全年銷售？或者顯然，2025 年已經過了將近四個多月。那麼，我們應該考慮全年交易量或更多八個月交易量的敏感度嗎？

Sunil, this is Jeremy. That guidance was for the full year. And like I said earlier, we've already grown over 100,000 barrels a day. So the view of 200,000 to 300,000 still stands for exit to exit '24 to '25.

蘇尼爾，這是傑瑞米。此指引適用於全年。正如我之前所說，我們每天的產量已經超過 10 萬桶。因此，20 萬至 30 萬的觀點仍代表著 2024 年至 2025 年的退出。

As to the Permian Basin, the supply push, the market is going to price where the marginal barrel goes. So we don't necessarily have assumptions upfront. The prices will dictate that. But it's a supply push market, and they have a $60 to $80 commodity, they're moving, that last $0.50 is just going to be dictated by the consumer, not necessarily the producer.

至於二疊紀盆地的供應推動，市場將根據邊際產量來定價。所以我們不一定事先做出假設。價格將決定這一點。但這是一個供應推動型市場，他們有 60 至 80 美元的商品，他們在移動，最後的 0.50 美元將由消費者決定，而不一定是生產者決定。

Okay. And then one clarification. So for full year '25, you're guiding in the NGL segment, 45,000 barrels per day of spec sales? I presume there is a fair bit of seasonality in that. So how much of that you did in Q1?

好的。然後澄清一點。那麼，對於 25 年全年，您預計 NGL 領域的規格銷售量為每天 45,000 桶嗎？我認為這其中有相當的季節性。那麼，您在第一季完成了多少？

Sunil, I think that's a follow-up question for the IR team, but the seasonality, we use our 8 million barrels of storage to optimize when we sell. So the market tells us when to sell those commodities. So we produce the spec sales, condensate is sold ratably, butane and propane are the two that are sold seasonally, but that's a function of pricing and timing and maximizing value, but that's probably a better follow-up question for the IR team.

Sunil，我認為這是 IR 團隊的後續問題，但由於季節性，我們使用 800 萬桶的儲存來優化銷售時間。因此市場告訴我們何時出售這些商品。因此，我們進行規格銷售，凝析油按比例出售，丁烷和丙烷是按季節出售的兩種產品，但這是定價和時機以及價值最大化的函數，但這可能是 IR 團隊更好的後續問題。

And Sunil, this is Willie. You'll remember the typical saddle that we have with colder months, obviously, more propane is typically sold. So -- but again, our team can follow up with you on that.

蘇尼爾，這是威利。您會記得，在寒冷的月份裡，我們通常會遇到典型的鞍狀情況，顯然，丙烷的銷售通常會更多。所以——但我們的團隊可以再次跟進此事。

Thanks for that.

謝謝。

AJ O'Donnell, TPH.

AJ O'Donnell，TPH。

Good morning, everyone. I was just wondering if I could start on some of the prepared comments about the volume recovery in April and May. Just wondering if you could provide some additional details around that, where you're seeing that along your system, and maybe how that could translate into higher long-haul throughput for the remainder of the year?

大家早安。我只是想知道我是否可以就四月和五月的銷售恢復發表一些準備好的評論。只是想知道您是否可以提供一些有關該問題的更多細節，您在系統中看到了這一點，以及這如何轉化為今年剩餘時間內更高的長途吞吐量？

AJ, hi, this is Jeremy. Thanks for the question. Some of that recovery was you had a strong fourth quarter and then you had weather events in January and February, which kept production down. So some of that was just production coming back online, also deferral of completions just to get around the weather. So this is very typical, you have the best weather period here in the spring and the fall, and so you see a lot of completion. So at surge on completions.

AJ，嗨，我是傑瑞米。謝謝你的提問。復甦的部分原因是第四季表現強勁，但 1 月和 2 月遭遇天氣事件，導致產量下降。因此，其中一些只是恢復生產，也是為了避開天氣而延後完工。這是非常典型的，春季和秋季是這裡天氣最好的時期，所以你會看到很多工程完工。因此完成量激增。

So as we said earlier, the impact of prices, we really haven't seen any impact of prices so far, and we don't expect it for the next month or two. So I think Al was just stating that while volumes were a little bit down in the first quarter, that was really a function of intra-basin, which is the lowest margin part of our value chain, and that's really feeding some of the long haul, and that was -- the long haul down there was driven by downstream demand.

正如我們之前所說的，價格的影響，到目前為止我們還沒有看到任何價格影響，而且我們預計未來一兩個月內也不會出現這種影響。所以我認為 Al 剛才說的是，雖然第一季的產量略有下降，但這實際上是流域內運輸的結果，流域內運輸是我們價值鏈中利潤率最低的部分，而且它確實為部分長途運輸提供了動力，而那裡的長途運輸是由下游需求驅動的。

So to get to your question on long haul, as you get to the summer driving season and refineries ramp back up, you're going to see a pickup in those refining markets and their demand for crude, you'll see more crude. So it's an interrelated question.

因此，回到你的長期問題，隨著進入夏季駕駛季節並且煉油廠恢復生產，你將看到煉油市場及其對原油的需求回升，你將看到更多的原油。所以這是一個相互關聯的問題。

Okay. I appreciate the detail there. And then maybe just one more on kind of the longer-term outlook. Granted like we're all kind of theorizing about what's going to happen over the next six to 12 months here with all the backdrop of volatility. But just curious if you guys could provide maybe some updated views about how you're thinking around total Permian long-haul utilization filling up?

好的。我很欣賞那裡的細節。然後也許再談一點關於長期前景的問題。當然，我們都在推測未來 6 到 12 個月在波動的背景下會發生什麼。但我只是好奇，你們能否提供一些關於如何看待二疊紀長期利用率成長的最新觀點？

I know there were some materials provided in the previous investor deck where you're talking about that 80% threshold in pipes hitting that. Yes, just any comments about how you're thinking about the forward market there.

我知道之前的投資者簡報中提供了一些資料，其中您談到了達到 80% 的管道門檻。是的，只是想談談您對那裡的遠期市場的看法。

AJ, that's really a function of production. So I think everybody has their own views of production. I think Willie said in the beginning, which is this is probably not a pause, this is not a stop of growth. You hear different views on that, but our view is the world is going to need this crude oil for a period of time. There's a great resource. There's very well-capitalized producers.

AJ，這實際上是生產的功能。所以我認為每個人對生產都有自己的看法。我認為威利一開始就說過，這可能不是一個暫停，這不是增長的停止。您可能會聽到不同的觀點，但我們認為世界將在一段時間內需要這種原油。這裡有豐富的資源。這裡有資金非常充足的生產商。

They're saying pause at the 55 to 60 range, and you've seen prices pause, which means as you see things recover on the demand side and you get more certainty around investment and decisions associated with the tariffs and all that settles out, you see demand recoveries who need for more crude oil recover. This is all related. So we're not going to make long-term statements.

他們說在 55 到 60 的範圍內暫停，你已經看到價格暫停，這意味著當你看到需求方面的情況復甦，你對投資和與關稅相關的決策更加確定，所有問題都解決了，你會看到需要更多原油的需求復甦。這都是有關聯的。所以我們不會做出長期聲明。

Utilization of the pipeline is related to volumes. But longer term, our longer-term growth profile and expectation for the Permian hasn't changed. So I don't think that's changed materially. It just might be a timing thing.

管道的利用率與容量相關。但從長遠來看，我們對二疊紀的長期成長前景和預期並沒有改變。所以我不認為這有實質的改變。這可能只是時間問題。

AJ, I'd just reinforce that. It's -- when you think about the current volatility, you've got the tariffs and OPEC, right? Those are the two things that are the catalyst for volatility. And I think a lot of our business plan and everyone else's business plan is going to really rest on when that ultimately gets resolved and no knows the answer to that. So what does it have to keep following it.

AJ，我只是想強調這一點。當您考慮當前的波動時，您會想到關稅和歐佩克，對嗎？這兩件事正是波動性的催化劑。我認為我們的許多商業計劃以及其他人的許多商業計劃都將真正取決於這個問題何時最終得到解決，而沒有人知道答案。那麼它有什麼可以繼續追隨呢？

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

John Mackay, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的約翰·麥凱。

Hey, team. Thanks for the time. We talked a lot about the upstream side, but you guys are also really tied in on the demand side as well. I'd just be curious if you have any read on kind of real-time demand signals and any sign of slowdown specifically you're seeing either on the refining side or on the export side?

嘿，團隊。謝謝你的時間。我們談了很多關於上游方面的事情，但你們也確實與需求方面息息相關。我只是好奇，您是否了解即時需求訊號以及煉油方面或出口方面具體出現的任何放緩跡象？

So those are two different questions. I'd say that it's very healthy is the global refining markets. And candidly, you haven't seen gasoline prices move much, but you've seen crude prices go down. So crack spreads are very strong, and we're seeing all the refineries come out of turnaround and run very strong. So I'd say that's part of the reason for lower volumes in the first quarter was driven by lower movements to refineries, that's all picking up. So that part of the business is very healthy.

所以這是兩個不同的問題。我想說的是，全球煉油市場非常健康。坦白說，你沒有看到汽油價格有太大波動，但你看到原油價格下跌。因此裂解價差非常強勁，我們看到所有煉油廠都走出困境並運作非常強勁。所以我想說，第一季產量下降的部分原因是煉油廠的運輸量減少，而現在運輸量正在回升。因此這部分業務非常健康。

On the export side, that changes month-to-month and even within one-week period within given months. You've seen some slowdown on movements internationally, but the price -- the barrels have to move so they get priced to move. Like the -- like I said, the Permian is $60 to $80 commodity, and that's going to push to the water and it's in the price to be sold. So I'd say we're seeing healthy margins globally for refining. So that's the thing to pay attention to on a forward basis that demand appears to be healthy.

在出口方面，出口量逐月變化，甚至在特定月份的一周內也會發生變化。你已經看到國際上的運輸有所放緩，但價格——石油必須運輸，所以運輸價格是固定的。就像——就像我說的，二疊紀盆地的商品價格是 60 到 80 美元，這將會推高水價，而且它的價格也包含在出售價格中。所以我想說，我們看到全球煉油業的利潤率是健康的。因此，從長遠來看，我們需要關注的是需求似乎很健康。

I appreciate that. And maybe just going back to, I think it was Gabe's question, and really, you commented a little bit more here. But just on capital allocation, I think now at the end of the quarter, you're still at the bottom end of the leverage range. Just curious how you guys are thinking about kind of managing within that range given the potential for the backdrop on the macro side to get a little softer. Is that changing your view at all on where you want to be in that specifically?

我很感激。也許只是回顧一下，我認為這是 Gabe 的問題，實際上，您在這裡發表了更多評論。但僅就資本配置而言，我認為現在到本季末，您仍然處於槓桿範圍的底端。我只是好奇，考慮到宏觀背景可能變得稍微柔和一些，你們是如何考慮在這個範圍內進行管理的。這是否會改變你對你想要達到的具體目標的看法？

John, I'll start and Al can certainly add, but -- we've been very clear about our capital allocation plan. One, we're going to -- we're committed to returning cash to the unitholders. And we've got our targeted increase to a coverage limit that we've announced years ago, and we're going to execute on that. We are also very optimistic and continue to work on the bolt-ons. And we think that opportunity set is out there and that is really the primary focus on the highest return options for cash. So those two are going to drive it.

約翰，我先開始，艾爾當然可以補充，但是──我們對我們的資本配置計畫非常清楚。首先，我們將致力於向基金份額持有者返還現金。我們已經實現了幾年前宣布的提高保險覆蓋限額的目標，並將執行這一目標。我們也非常樂觀並將繼續致力於改進。我們認為機會就在那裡，而這確實是對現金最高回報選擇的主要關注點。所以這兩個人會駕駛它。

Our leverage is at the lower end. If there were some transactions that made sense, we've always said that we would allow the leverage to go up with the understanding that -- and the planning that it doesn't stay up. So we're using that leverage range really to our benefit as we think about what we might be able to do as far as growing in a capital disciplined way.

我們的槓桿率處於較低水準。如果有些交易是合理的，我們總是說，我們會允許槓桿率上升，但前提是——並且計劃讓它不會一直上升。因此，當我們思考如何以資本自律的方式成長時，我們確實在利用這種槓桿範圍來獲得利益。

Al, anything to add?

Al，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. The only thing I would add is it is a range, the leverage range. We don't have the stated desire to be at the bottom end or below on a sustained basis. So we do look at the ability to use some of that capacity for strategic quality investments as we go ahead. We just recently, in the last year, got BBB rated at all 3 agencies. We do not view and have no interest in putting leverage at a point that would jeopardize any of those ratings.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，這是一個範圍，即槓桿範圍。我們並沒有明確表示希望長期處於最低水準或以下。因此，我們確實在考慮利用部分產能進行策略性優質投資。我們最近，也就是去年，獲得了所有 3 家機構的 BBB 評級。我們不認為並且沒有興趣將槓桿率提高到危及任何評級的程度。

I appreciate it. Thank you.

我很感激。謝謝。

Theresa Chen, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

Morning. I wanted to go back to the comments about M&A opportunities and the volatile landscape effectively creating more opportunities within this part of your capital allocation strategy. Are you seeing more sellers come to market at this juncture? Or do you expect this to happen as the year unfolds, depending on where pricing goes?

早晨。我想回到有關併購機會和動盪情況的評論，有效地在您的資本配置策略的這一部分中創造更多機會。您是否看到此時有更多的賣家進入市場？或者您是否預期這種情況會隨著時間的推移而發生，這取決於價格走勢？

And if there are more sellers coming to market, would you expect a more rapid pace of acquisitions, just given the state of your leverage and your balance sheet and might only have a short window to execute. How do you view that?

如果有更多的賣家進入市場，您是否會預期收購速度會更快，只是考慮到您的槓桿率和資產負債表狀況，並且可能只有很短的執行時間。您怎麼看待這個？

Theresa, it's Willie. The answer to your question is I think it's a pretty broad range of opportunities. I mean if you look at the list of things that we've done, I would argue that some of those transactions were done because of -- where perhaps a refiner was in the cycle and wanting to monetize. And we've had similar discussions with upstream folks on where do they want to deploy capital and how do they monetize. So this truly is kind of back and forth with our partners on an everyday basis on how do you win and how do we get to something.

特蕾莎，我是威利。我認為你的問題的答案是，這是一個相當廣泛的機會。我的意思是，如果你看一下我們所做的事情的清單，我會說其中一些交易是因為——也許煉油廠處於週期中並希望將其貨幣化。我們也與上游企業進行了類似的討論，討論他們希望將資本部署到哪裡以及如何將其貨幣化。因此，這實際上就是我們每天與合作夥伴反覆討論如何取勝以及如何取得成就。

And the thing I would point out is, and I think you understand our system well, because of the network that we have, and the relationships we have with a lot of these partners, we can create value in many different ways. So lots of times, it's not just simply a bid ask on the asset. It's a bid ask on the asset, but we have more opportunities to create value that create win-win situations. So I know it's a little bit general, but hopefully gives you the dynamics of all the different things that we look at.

我想指出的是，我認為你很了解我們的系統，因為我們擁有的網絡以及與許多合作夥伴的關係，我們可以透過許多不同的方式創造價值。因此很多時候，這不僅僅是對資產的買賣。這是對資產的買賣，但我們有更多機會創造價值，實現雙贏。所以我知道這有點籠統，但希望能讓你了解我們所看到的所有不同事物的動態。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

And I'm showing no further questions at this time. And I would like to hand the conference back over to Willie Chiang for closing remarks.

我現在沒有其他問題了。現在我想將會議交還給 Willie Chiang 並請他致閉幕詞。

Thanks, Michelle. Well, thanks, everyone, for dialing in. Strong start to the quarter. We look forward to seeing you on the road and giving you more updates. Have a great day.

謝謝，米歇爾。好吧，謝謝大家的來電。本季開局強勁。我們期待在路上見到您並為您提供更多更新資訊。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。