Oxford Industries Inc (OXM) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Oxford Industries, Inc. Third Quarter Fiscal 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Anne Shoemaker. You may begin.

Thank you, and good afternoon. Before we begin, I would like to remind participants that certain statements made on today's call and in the Q&A session may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements.

Important factors that could cause actual results of operations or our financial condition to differ are discussed in our press release issued earlier today and in documents filed by us with the SEC, including the risk factors contained in our Form 10-K. We undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements.

During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in our press release issued earlier today, which is posted under the Investor Relations tab of our website at oxfordinc.com. Due to the material impact of COVID-19 on our business in fiscal 2020, we will also include comparisons to our fiscal 2019 results.

And now I'd like to introduce today's call participants. With me today are Tom Chubb, Chairman and CEO; and Scott Grassmyer, CFO. Thank you for your attention.

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Tom Chubb.

Thank you, Anne. Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining us. Before I begin reviewing third quarter results, I want to remind everyone of Oxford's core operating philosophies. Our objective is always to deliver long-term shareholder value. Our strategy for delivering this value is to own a portfolio of powerful lifestyle brands, that can drive sustained profitable growth. And our purpose as a company and in each of our brands is to make people happy.

With that, we're delighted to be reporting record sales and earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2021. These outstanding results are directly attributable to the power of our brand portfolio, the strength of our product offerings and our ability to connect with and serve customers across channels, combined with the great work our teams have done to fortify these foundational cornerstones during the pandemic.

As compared to the same quarter last year, our sales increased 41%. And even more importantly, our sales also increased as compared to pre-COVID fiscal 2019 levels. Excluding Lanier Apparel, where operations were effectively exited during the third quarter of fiscal 2021 and net sales increased 15% over the same period of fiscal 2019. The robust sales growth that we experienced during the third quarter was driven by 40% growth in our full-price direct-to-consumer business with growth in each of our brands compared to fiscal 2019 including a 13% increase in full price retail and a 100% gain in full-price e-commerce.

Restaurant sales also contributed to our top line improvement, growing 14% in the third quarter of fiscal 2021 as compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2019, fueled by strong increases at existing locations as well as the addition of 5 new Marlin Bar locations.

At the same time, adjusted gross margin increased an impressive 710 basis points to 62% during the third quarter of fiscal 2021 as compared to fiscal 2019. Scott will elaborate on all these excellent metrics in more detail momentarily, but I will mention that they drove record third quarter earnings of $1.19 per share on an adjusted basis compared to an adjusted loss of $0.44 per share last year, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.10 during the third quarter of fiscal 2019. While our third quarter results, no doubt benefited from a very strong consumer market, we believe the primary driver of our outperformance was the excellent execution of our strategy and purpose. The exit of Lanier Apparel during the third quarter marked an important milestone in our long-term strategy as Lanier was the last of our legacy private label businesses.

Our current portfolio consists of 5 excellent lifestyle brands, Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, Southern Tide, The Beaufort Bonnet Company and Duck Head. These brands are 100% focused on the consumer and making that consumer happy with powerful clear brand messages exceptional differentiated product, superior customer experiences, including our e-commerce websites, our stores and restaurants and strategic wholesale accounts.

Over the last 2 years across our brands, we have redoubled our commitment to delivering our positive upbeat brand messages through beautiful creative content and imagery. Those brand messages are resonating with our consumers and are a big part of the excellent results that we are delivering.

The predominant mix of direct-to-consumer, which is expected to be over 80% of our business enhances our ability to deliver happiness to our customers. the direct model gives us significant agility and flexibility in managing the flow of product to our customers. This flexibility has proven especially useful this year as industry-wide supply chain challenges have required our merchants to be highly adaptable as to what product we are featuring on the floor and on our website at any particular point in time.

The direct business also provides us with significant margin power and is responsible for a large portion of the gain in gross margin that we achieved during the quarter. Finally, the direct-to-consumer model gives us the opportunity to deliver an unparalleled customer experience that is consistent with the aspirational positioning of our brands. And our incredible people have continued to provide that elevated experience through all the challenges of the last 2 years.

One of our strategic priorities over the last couple of years has been to enhance our digital marketing capabilities by improving our ability to assimilate and analyze data, use that data to develop insights about existing and potential customers, create campaigns designed to reach those consumers and measure the effectiveness of those campaigns with the goals of increasing our customer account, retaining existing customers and driving higher spend across all customers.

I am pleased to report that on a trailing 12-month basis, customer metrics at the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2021, including customer accounts, rate of new customer additions, retention rates and customer lifetime value were all strong relative to pre-pandemic numbers.

From a product perspective, we continue to see strength in the casual, easy and cozy styles that are a hallmark of all of our brands. Great examples of this are continued strength in Tommy Bahama Knits and Shorts, women's lounge and sleepwear and Lilly Pulitzer's Luxletic Athleisure collection. At the same time, we saw a nice rebound in some of the occasion-driven categories that were most challenged last year, including men's pants and woven shirts and women's dresses as people reengaged in more social events.

As we head into the final stretch of the year, I am pleased to report that holiday selling to date has been robust, and I firmly believe that we will deliver a strong finish to a fantastic year.

I'm incredibly grateful to our team and share their pride in what we have delivered for our customers and our shareholders.

I'll now turn the call over to Scott for additional detail on the third quarter and insights into the -- our outlook for the balance of the year. Scott?

Thank you, Tom. As Tom just mentioned, we had outstanding performances in each of our brands during the third quarter, which resulted in significant sales, gross margin, operating margin and earnings growth to levels exceeding pre-pandemic results.

On the top line, demand for our products remained high and revenue exceeded 2019 at our direct-to-consumer channels and in each of our brands. Excluding Lanier Apparel, where operations were effectively exited during the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Consolidated sales increased 15% to $243 million. We had improvements in all regions with particular strength in Florida, the Southeast and Texas. Hawaii has been positive overall with strength except on the island of Oahu, which is more dependent on foreign tours than the other islands.

Our gross margin continued to track significantly higher than 2019. On an adjusted basis, gross margin expanded 710 basis points over 2019 to 62% in the third quarter. Driving this improvement was a higher proportion of full-price sales our overall shift in our sales mix to higher margin direct-to-consumer channels of distribution and improved IMUs. Approximately 270 basis points of higher freight cost including the use of air freight, partially offset some of the margin improvement.

On an adjusted basis, we gained 260 basis points of SG&A leverage in the third quarter, improving from 56% of sales in 2019 to 53% of sales in 2021. Adjusted SG&A dollars decreased modestly from 2019 levels with decreases in employment costs due to headcount reductions and lower occupancy costs, partially offset by increases in marketing expense. As a result, our consolidated operating margin expanded 970 basis points from 1% in 2019 to 11%. The Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer and Southern Tide all experienced operating margin expansion.

Moving to the balance sheet. Our liquidity position is strong. We ended the third quarter with $188 million of cash and short-term investments and no borrowings outstanding under our revolving credit facility.

FIFO inventory decreased 17% compared to fiscal 2020, excluding Lanier Apparel due to higher-than-expected sales during the first 9 months of 2021 or ongoing enhancements to enterprise order management systems and prudent seasonal purchases. We believe our inventory is well positioned to meet forecasted demand throughout the remainder of the holiday selling season.

Looking ahead, we are pleased with our holiday season results today and are confident we can deliver a solid fourth quarter. Our outlook reflects our expectation of continued strength in full-price direct-to-consumer business. we expect full-price direct-to-consumer sales growth and consolidated gross margin expansion over 2019. While we raised our outlook for the year, year-over-year improvement in our full-price direct business is expected to be partially offset by a handful of specific items in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year. We expect sales from Lanier Apparel to be approximately $20 million lower than 2019's fourth quarter as we exited the business in Q3 of this year.

In addition, we expect our branded wholesale business to be approximately $15 million lower than 2019. This is impacted by the shift to certain initial spring wholesale shipments. These have historically shipped in the fourth quarter, but are expected to ship in the first quarter of 2022 as we've reduced our reliance on air freight for warmer weather product. We also expect the Lilly Pulitzer fourth quarter flash clearance sale to be lower compared to 2019 due to strong year-to-date full-price sales, resulting in less available inventory for the flash sale.

For the fourth quarter, we expect sales to be between $285 million and $295 million compared to sales of $298 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019. Again, Lanier Apparel generated $20 million in net sales in the fourth quarter of 2019. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021, we expect earnings of $1.20 to $1.35 per share on an adjusted basis compared to earnings of $1.09 per share on an adjusted basis in the fourth quarter of 2019. Our outlook includes strong quarter-to-date results with a solid start to the holiday selling season.

For the full year, we now expect sales in the range of $1.127 billion to $1.137 billion as compared to sales of $1.123 billion in 2019. For the full year, sales from Lanier Apparel is expected to be $25 million in 2021 compared to $95 million in 2019. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to be between $7.52 and $7.67. This compared to earnings of $4.32 per share on an adjusted basis in 2019.

Our effective tax rate for the full fiscal year 2021 is expected to be approximately 22%. We continue to support our business with investments for future growth. Capital expenditure is expected to be between $35 million and $40 million in fiscal 2021 primarily reflecting investments in information technology initiatives, new Marlin Bars and retail stores.

We're excited to open our first company-owned Beaufort Bonnet Company store in Grand Boulevard at Sandestin later this quarter. We continue to generate strong cash flow from operations, including $157 million year-to-date.

Our capital allocation priorities include investing in our businesses, acquisitions and the return of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We remain in a strong position to return cash to shareholders and are proud of our long history of returning value through dividends, which we have paid every quarter since going public in 1960. This quarter, our Board of Directors has declared a dividend of $0.42 per share.

Additionally, in assessing our capital allocation plan, our Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase authorization of $150 million.

We appreciate your time today, and now we'll turn the call over for questions. Shamali?

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ed Yruma with KeyBanc.

Congratulations on the great quarter and great to hear the momentum in the holiday thus far. I guess for me, kind of a shorter-term focus question and then a longer-term focus question, I guess, you guys sound like you've done a really good job pulling inventory around juggling, making sure the in-stocks were sufficient for holiday. I know you're not offering guidance for next year yet, but should we think about any implications other than that wholesale shift you indicated of kind of pulling inventory forward and how this leaves you situated at least for the opening part of '22?

And then a longer-term question. I know you guys have started the process of opening more Southern Tide stores. You guys sound like you're going to do the 1 Beaufort Bonnet store. Just kind of an overview of where you think you are in your store rollout potential across your banners?

Yes. Thank you, Ed. We were very, very pleased with the results of the third quarter and the way that we've differentiated ourselves. But as to the inventory, I think we've done a terrific job, as you mentioned, of being agile and nimble in dealing with the situation, making sure that we were able to meet our sales objectives and satisfy our customers. And we're not anticipating really any problem in doing that. There's a lot of work that's going into making sure that it all works. But we're ordering inventory earlier to account for the stretched out time in the supply chain that everybody in the industry is experiencing and then we're continuing to be nimble and agile. So the bottom line on that is that I don't expect us to not be able to deliver the business based on supply chain issues, if that's helpful for you. I think we'll be in good shape.

And then on the long term... Yes. On the long-term store, we're, I think, very pleased with the way that the 4 Southern Tide stores that we've got are progressing. They were learning a lot from that, and we've got more stores in the pipeline for Southern Tide. I'll let Scott elaborate in just a minute. And the plan is to continue to open more Southern Tide stores. Beaufort Bonnet as Scott mentioned in his section, we'll have the first open soon. We've got a couple more in the works at Beaufort Bonnet Company.

And then as to Tommy and Lilly, as you know in Tommy Bahama, the focus is very much on Marlin Bars. And we like what we're seeing with the Marlin Bars and are going to continue to look for additional locations and potentially some stand-alone stores as well. But I think the focus will be much more on Marlin Bars and then in Lilly, we're looking at new opportunities, too. With respect to Tommy and Lilly, we're also evaluating all existing stores carefully, and there may be, from time to time, some of that drop out of the roster as we get to renewal dates or other opportunities to exit. But we're definitely in the hunt for new stores really across all 4 of the brands that have them now.

Yes. We -- Yes, it takes a little while to build the pipeline of stores. So the Marlin Bars in particular, but we feel confident that we'll get some Marlin Bars in '22 and have and leave the year with strong pipeline of Marlin Bars for the future. So we're -- we like -- we still like to brick-and-mortar stores in our brands.

And our next question comes from the line of Paul Lejuez with Citigroup.

It's Tracy Kogan filling in for Paul. I had a couple of questions. The first is, I know you guys said the holiday sales to date have been robust. I was wondering if you could frame that for us -- have sales trends relative to 2019 accelerated compared to 3Q? Just any color you can give there.

And then on the wholesale side, I'm wondering what you're seeing from your wholesale partners? Are there any order cancellations when things are potentially arriving late? Or are partners still just taking anything that they can get?

Yes. Sure, Tracy, and thanks for being on the call today. As to the wholesale partners are the performance of our products at retail for our wholesale partners has really been quite good through the third quarter and the early part of the fourth quarter. They understand the supply chain situation. And so no, we are not anticipating cancellations. I think it's safe to say in most cases, they would take more from us if we had an available. A lot of them are quite hungry for goods from us and are asking if we can give them more -- with the strength of our own sales, we don't necessarily have a lot to give them, but we are not anticipating issues with cancellations.

And then on the fourth quarter to date, direct-to-consumer trend and expectations for the rest of the quarter. I'll let maybe Scott jump in.

Yes. We're checking right now pretty similar to the third quarter in total direct-to-consumer. There are a lot of timing dynamics. And with e-com, maybe anticipated to cut off a little earlier this year because of some of the freight concerns and well stores pick that up. So we're monitoring that closely. So there's a lot of holiday left, but we are pleased with the beginning of the holiday.

And just one additional point on the wholesale business. We did -- for all chances, we did invest for holiday and some airfreight to bring product in. So we were trying to make sure our wholesale partners did have the right goods on the floor for holiday. Everything might not have been right on time, but we did invest in airfreight to help offset some of the delays in the supply chain. And it was a little bit of a margin drag, but margins would have been even better without that.

And our next question comes from the line of Susan Anderson with B. Riley.

Nice job on the quarter. I guess just a follow-up really quick on the wholesale orders. I'm assuming for spring, they're probably higher than what we're seeing in fall, I guess, is depending on how much product you can get to them? And then just on your DTC business, obviously, that's been pretty strong. How are you thinking about that penetration as we look out longer term?

Yes. So on the wholesale, I think we are pleased with the booking trends that we're seeing for next year. At this point, that's really spring and a little bit of summer that we're seeing. And I think the wholesale business is rebuilding nicely. We're selling through on the retail floor quite well. I think, pretty much universally all our wholesale customers, and that, I think, is a good sign for the future of wholesale.

As to the proportion, if that's the question of direct-to-consumer versus wholesale, as you know, Susan, we've been in a period over the last couple of years where the actual wholesale dollars have been going down a bit as we've been very selective about who we sell to and what we sell to them. I do think we're at a point where wholesale probably has got some growth opportunity in dollars. And then the question will be just really whether it grows as fast as the direct businesses. And my hunch is that it probably hangs in there somewhere around that 20% number that we mentioned. But if it doesn't, I think that's probably because direct-to-consumer is growing even faster.

Great. That's helpful. And then just really quick on the pricing. Can you remind us how much you raised prices in the back half and what the expectations are for next year?

Our IMUs were up about 1 point in IMUs this year. Going into next year, there's -- we are moving on price, but we are going to have some cost pressures, and we're not sure exactly how it's all going to shake out, but our operating groups have been very proactive on moving prices up to hopefully at least offset and maybe a little more than offset, the inflationary pressures that we see come at us next year. There is the factories they're having a lot of inflation, and they are -- they're certainly planning to attempt to pass that on, and we've got to move on our IMUs to help offset that.

Great. And then one last one, if I could add. Just obviously, you're a record cash balances on the balance sheet, any thoughts around capital allocation, cash return to shareholders and potential acquisitions?

Yes. So Susan, as Scott mentioned in the -- in his remarks, our capital allocation strategy really has not changed and that's first and foremost, to invest in our existing businesses; second, appropriate M&A opportunities; and third, returning capital to shareholders, which would include both dividends and share repurchases. What's changed for us is that the cash situation and cash flow are really very strong right now. Accordingly, we announced the $150 million share repurchase authorization that our Board just approved and I don't think the philosophy has changed. It's just that our cash flow and our cash position are stronger really than -- I think they've ever been before.

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Marotta with CL King Associates.

Tom and Scott, congratulations again on the third quarter. Two questions on the restaurants. Are there any continued capacity constraints? Or is that in the rearview mirror?

No. There are still some, and I'm not sure I can recite them all to you, but they're at least in the Hawaii, there are some, and I think possibly in a couple of other places, we've still got some of that.

Is it possible to quantify on a chain-wide, is it roughly 90% or 80%, 70%, just in ballpark?

It's tough to quantify, but it is limited to some states, but there are also some operating hour restrictions in a couple of our centers where we have Marlin Bar. So our restaurants, I think could -- they're doing extremely well, but could be doing some more business that we're really happy with the way they're performing, but they could be doing more in some of the areas restricted.

That's basically the question. Also now that you got...

Steve, if I could, on the restaurants, I think it's important to remember what an incredible experience they deliver for our guests in those restaurants. And we think of it as hospitality, and that's a big word for us. That's a powerful word hospitality that really means that you're making somebody feel at home, and we want them to feel not only at home in our restaurant, but in our brand. And I think what I love an awful lot about the numbers we're delivering in restaurants is not just the numbers and the financial impact, but really what that's doing for our guests in terms of making them happy and what the implications of that are for our brand. And that's really, I think, the biggest story on restaurants. The financial part is wonderful, but the reinforcement of the brand and the brand experience in the depth and texture that adds to our brands. I think it's just -- it's hard to overstate the value of that.

That's very helpful. And now that you've got a bit more of a calendar under your belt with the Marlin Bar, has there been any material seasonality that has surprised you either to the upside or the downside?

I think in some of the warm -- some of the warm weather markets, even when you get out of season, it's amazing how well they are holding where I think some places like Coconut Point, you'd expect when you got in the summer that they would be about dead, and there's still traffic. So I think they've felt better in the all seasons. We've got some still -- some of the ones around for Lauderdale are still they're very cruise traffic dependent. So those are still -- are not doing what we know they'll do once that returns to normal. But we've been very pleased with the Marlin Bar.

And I would just reinforce what Scott said, if there's a surprise there, I think it's just the willingness of people to sit outside at times when it's arguably not all that pleasant to be there, and you would think you might see more of a drop off than we do.

Do you want unpleasant, try December in Elba, New York.

Look, everything is relevant. We get that.

And we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Tom Chubb for closing remarks.

Okay. Thank you very much to all of you for joining us. We're really proud of the results that we delivered for the third quarter and what we believe that we're going to be able to do for the fourth quarter and think it is a direct result of all the work that we've done to continue to differentiate our brands, our products and the service that we deliver to our customers. We wish you all happy holidays and look forward to talking to you again in March.

And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.