Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Chris, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Blue Owl Q4 2022 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Ann Dai, Head of Investor Relations, you may begin.

早上好。我叫克里斯，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 Blue Owl Q4 2022 電話會議。 （操作員說明）投資者關係主管 Ann Dai，您可以開始了。

Thanks, operator, and good morning to everyone. Joining me today are Doug Ostrover, our Chief Executive Officer; Marc Lipschultz and Michael Rees, our Co-Presidents; and Alan Kirshenbaum, our Chief Financial Officer. I'd like to remind our listeners that remarks made during the call may contain forward-looking statements, which are not a guarantee of future performance or results and involve a number of risks and uncertainties that are outside the company's control.

謝謝接線員，大家早上好。今天加入我的是我們的首席執行官 Doug Ostrover；我們的聯席總裁 Marc Lipschultz 和 Michael Rees；和我們的首席財務官 Alan Kirshenbaum。我想提醒我們的聽眾，電話會議期間發表的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述不是對未來業績或結果的保證，並且涉及公司無法控制的許多風險和不確定性。

Actual results may differ materially from those forward-looking statements as a result of a number of factors, including those described from time to time in Blue Owl Capital's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement. We'd also like to remind everyone that we'll refer to non-GAAP measures on the call, which are reconciled to GAAP figures in our earnings presentation available on the Investor Resources section of our website at blueowl.com.

由於多種因素，包括 Blue Owl Capital 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中不時描述的因素，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。我們還想提醒大家，我們將在電話會議上提及非 GAAP 指標，這些指標與我們網站 blueowl.com 投資者資源部分的收益報告中的 GAAP 數據相一致。

Please note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Blue Owl Fund. This morning, we issued our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2022. For the fourth quarter, we reported fee-related earnings, or FRE, of $0.16 per share and distributable earnings, or DE, of $0.15 per share, bringing full year FRE to $0.57 per share and full year DE to $0.53 per share. We declared a dividend of $0.13 per share for the fourth quarter payable on March 6 to holders of record as of February 24 and also announced a fixed dividend of $0.56 for 2023 or $0.14 per quarter starting with our first quarter 2023 earnings.

請注意，本次電話會議的任何內容均不構成出售要約或購買任何 Blue Owl Fund 權益的要約邀請。今天上午，我們發布了 2022 年第四季度和全年的財務業績。第四季度，我們報告的費用相關收益 (FRE) 為每股 0.16 美元，可分配收益 (DE) 為每股 0.15 美元，帶來全年 FRE 至每股 0.57 美元，全年 DE 至每股 0.53 美元。我們宣布將於 3 月 6 日向截至 2 月 24 日在冊持有人派發每股 0.13 美元的股息，並宣布從 2023 年第一季度的收益開始，2023 年的固定股息為 0.56 美元或每季度 0.14 美元。

During the call today, we'll be referring to the earnings presentation, which we posted to our website this morning, so please have that on hand to follow along. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Doug.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考今天早上發佈在我們網站上的收益演示文稿，所以請隨時準備好。有了這個，我想把電話轉給道格。

Thank you, Ann, and good morning, everyone. Today, we reported another strong quarter of growth for Blue Owl, capping off our first full year as a public company. Since Blue Owl's entrance to the public markets, we have grown our AUM by 122% and fee-paying AUM by 107%, anchored largely by permanent capital. And over the past year, we have achieved over 40% growth on the key metrics we use to evaluate our business, including management fees, FRE and DE and have maintained an industry-leading margin of 60%.

謝謝你，安，大家早上好。今天，我們報告了 Blue Owl 又一個強勁的季度增長，為我們作為上市公司的第一個完整年度畫上了句號。自 Blue Owl 進入公開市場以來，我們的 AUM 增長了 122%，付費 AUM 增長了 107%，主要由永久資本支撐。在過去的一年裡，我們用於評估業務的關鍵指標（包括管理費、FRE 和 DE）實現了 40% 以上的增長，並保持了 60% 的行業領先利潤率。

This extraordinary growth has been driven by robust fundraising and capital deployment, despite a very challenging period in the markets. Let me provide some color on our achievements that drove this growth. We raised $25 billion of fee-paying AUM in 2022, bringing us halfway to our $50 billion fundraising goal for 2022 and 2023. Notably, in the third quarter of 2022 alone, we raised more equity in that quarter than we had the entire year of 2021, reflecting robust demand and the expanding power of our increasingly global and integrated fundraising platforms across institutional and private wealth channels.

儘管市場處於充滿挑戰的時期，但強勁的籌資和資本部署推動了這一非凡的增長。讓我為推動這一增長的成就提供一些色彩。我們在 2022 年籌集了 250 億美元的付費資產管理規模，使我們實現了 2022 年和 2023 年 500 億美元的籌款目標的一半。值得注意的是，僅在 2022 年第三季度，我們在該季度籌集的股權就超過了全年的股權2021 年，反映出強勁的需求以及我們日益全球化和整合的跨機構和私人財富渠道的籌款平台的力量不斷擴大。

Our strategies appeal to investors looking for positive leverage to rising interest rates, income generation with downside protection, inflation hedging and access to the positive secular trends across the alternative asset manager space. And we continue to see strong demand for these investment characteristics. Not only have we had strong fundraising trends but our redemptions from products that offer quarterly tenders have remained de minimis, with just $186 million of tenders received on the $13.4 billion of fee-paying AUM managed by those funds or less than 1.5%.

我們的策略吸引投資者尋求對利率上升的積極槓桿作用、通過下行保護創造收入、對沖通脹以及在另類資產管理領域尋求積極的長期趨勢。我們繼續看到對這些投資特徵的強勁需求。我們不僅有強勁的籌資趨勢，而且我們從提供季度投標的產品中贖回的金額仍然很少，在這些基金管理的 134 億美元的收費 AUM 中，僅收到了 1.86 億美元的投標，不到 1.5%。

By contrast, inflows into those same products were close to $1.6 billion during the quarter.

相比之下，本季度流入這些相同產品的資金接近 16 億美元。

Private wealth remains a successful market for Blue Owl with healthy flows, despite a more challenging market environment, a testament to the attractiveness of our products and the relationships we've built in the space. In Direct Lending, we had gross originations of $22 billion for the year, just slightly off our pace from the prior year, despite a 20% decline in U.S. leveraged loan volumes and a 42% decline in announced U.S. M&A transactions.

儘管市場環境更具挑戰性，但私人財富仍然是 Blue Owl 的成功市場，流量健康，這證明了我們產品的吸引力以及我們在該領域建立的關係。在直接貸款方面，儘管美國槓桿貸款量下降了 20%，已宣布的美國併購交易下降了 42%，但我們全年的總貸款額為 220 億美元，與上一年相比略有下降。

This speaks to the increasing breadth and scale of Blue Owl's platform as well as the importance of direct lenders in today's marketplace. Volatility and uncertainty have created an environment where other market participants are unable or unwilling to lend capital despite the very attractive opportunities present today, and we are benefiting greatly from that dynamic.

這說明了 Blue Owl 平台的廣度和規模不斷擴大，以及直接貸方在當今市場中的重要性。波動性和不確定性創造了一種環境，儘管當今存在非常有吸引力的機會，但其他市場參與者無法或不願藉出資金，而我們正從這種動態中受益匪淺。

In GP Capital Solutions, we deployed about $4 billion of capital, completing transactions with world-class managers, such as Dragoneer, KPS, Veritas and PAI and bringing us to 70% committed for Fund V. During the fourth quarter, we held a final close for Fund V at nearly $13 billion, over 40% higher than our $9 billion target during a period that many across the industry have described as a difficult fundraising environment.

在 GP Capital Solutions，我們部署了約 40 億美元的資金，完成了與 Dragoneer、KPS、Veritas 和 PAI 等世界級管理公司的交易，使我們對 Fund V 的承諾達到 70%。在第四季度，我們舉行了最後一次Fund V 的收盤價接近 130 億美元，比我們 90 億美元的目標高出 40% 以上，在此期間，許多業內人士都將其描述為艱難的籌資環境。

And in Real Estate, we are now fundraising for our net lease strategy across multiple product offerings, and we are off to a great start. We closed approximately $2 billion for our drawdown product during the fourth quarter and are confident in reaching our fundraising target during the first half of 2023.

在房地產領域，我們現在正在為我們的跨多種產品的淨租賃戰略籌款，我們有了一個良好的開端。我們在第四季度為我們的提款產品籌集了大約 20 億美元，並有信心在 2023 年上半年實現我們的籌款目標。

In this current market environment, what we're seeing is that the safety, inflation hedging and tax-advantaged yield characteristics of this strategy have resonated with investors, and the cost of capital relative to the public markets has resonated with companies. We're very proud of the substantial asset growth Blue Owl has achieved over the short period of time. But our goal is not to be asset gatherers, not all AUM is created equal, and our focus is on raising very long-dated assets with attractive fee and margin characteristics where we can provide a differentiated experience for our investors.

在當前的市場環境下，我們所看到的是，該策略的安全性、通脹對沖和稅收優惠收益特徵引起了投資者的共鳴，而相對於公開市場的資本成本也引起了公司的共鳴。我們為 Blue Owl 在短時間內取得的巨大資產增長感到自豪。但我們的目標不是成為資產收集者，並非所有 AUM 都是平等的，我們的重點是籌集具有吸引力的費用和保證金特徵的非常長期的資產，我們可以為投資者提供差異化的體驗。

That is how we look to drive meaningful earnings and dividend growth for our shareholders, and we believe that should translate into substantial value over time. And we look to do so in a way that is predictable and resilient to a wide range of market conditions, which is why our permanent capital base and FRE-centric model are so important. Since our Investor Day in May, sell-side analyst expectations for 2022 earnings growth across our peer group steadily declined as the Street adjusted its view of carried interest and other difficult to predict earnings streams.

這就是我們希望為股東帶來有意義的收益和股息增長的方式，我們相信隨著時間的推移，這應該會轉化為可觀的價值。我們希望以一種可預測且能夠適應各種市場條件的方式來做到這一點，這就是為什麼我們的永久資本基礎和以 FRE 為中心的模型如此重要的原因。自 5 月的投資者日以來，隨著華爾街調整其對附帶權益和其他難以預測的收益流的看法，賣方分析師對我們同行集團 2022 年收益增長的預期穩步下降。

In contrast, expectations for Blue Owl were unchanged, speaking to our differentiated financial profile, and we delivered on what we said we would do, achieving our goal of reaching $1.3 billion of revenue in 2022. For the year, Blue Owl generated FRE growth of 46% and DE growth of 42%, while maintaining an industry-leading 60% FRE margin. This is especially notable given the market headwinds present throughout the year, which impacted the larger financial sector.

相比之下，Blue Owl 的預期沒有改變，這說明我們差異化的財務狀況，我們兌現了我們的承諾，實現了我們在 2022 年達到 13 億美元收入的目標。這一年，Blue Owl 實現了 FRE 增長46% 和 DE 增長 42%，同時保持行業領先的 60% FRE 利潤率。鑑於全年存在的市場逆風影響了更大的金融部門，這一點尤其值得注意。

We have nearly doubled our dividend over the last 6 quarters. And as Alan will highlight in greater detail later, we are now moving to a fixed dividend that we expect to grow meaningfully over time. Our asset base is very resilient. It's based on permanent capital compared to our peers who must monetize assets, return capital and raise a new fund and hopefully larger fund, we generally hold on to the assets we have. So each dollar of incremental assets raised is additive to our capital base.

在過去 6 個季度中，我們的股息幾乎翻了一番。正如艾倫稍後將更詳細地強調的那樣，我們現在正在轉向固定股息，我們預計隨著時間的推移會出現有意義的增長。我們的資產基礎非常有彈性。它基於永久資本，與我們必須將資產貨幣化、返還資本並籌集新基金和希望更大的基金的同行相比，我們通常會持有我們擁有的資產。因此，籌集的每一美元增量資產都會增加我們的資本基礎。

This is what we call the layer cake model.

這就是我們所說的層蛋糕模型。

On top of that, we have over $10 billion of AUM that will start paying fees once the capital is deployed, providing incremental visibility into our earnings growth ahead. This is what we call the embedded earnings power of our business. All of this should sound familiar to those of you who already know the Blue Owl's story. Although the public equity and credit markets have been volatile, although interest rates have moved significantly this year and although inflation rose swiftly and has remained persistently high, weighing on GDP and many corporate earnings, the core goals that we outlined for you at Investor Day back in May have not changed.

最重要的是，我們擁有超過 100 億美元的資產管理規模，一旦資本部署完畢，這些資產將開始支付費用，從而為我們未來的盈利增長提供更多可見性。這就是我們所說的我們業務的內在盈利能力。對於那些已經了解藍貓頭鷹故事的人來說，所有這一切應該聽起來很熟悉。儘管公共股票和信貸市場一直動盪不安，儘管今年利率大幅變動，儘管通脹迅速上升並持續居高不下，對 GDP 和許多企業盈利構成壓力，但我們在投資者日為您概述的核心目標五月沒有改變。

And for those that are just getting to know us, we think the past 7 quarters as a public company have proven out the predictability, the stability, the resiliency and the growth potential of our business. Looking to 2023, we're excited about the runway we see ahead in spite of the challenging market environment. We continue to progress towards the financial goals we laid out for our shareholders at Investor Day. We are committed to providing strong performance, attractive income solutions and downside-protected returns for our fund investors. We continue to deepen the relationships we have with our current institutional and wealth partners and build many new ones. And we continue to innovate to stay ahead of the competition and drive growth for our shareholders.

對於那些剛剛了解我們的人，我們認為過去 7 個季度作為一家上市公司已經證明了我們業務的可預測性、穩定性、彈性和增長潛力。展望 2023 年，儘管市場環境充滿挑戰，但我們對未來的跑道感到興奮。我們繼續朝著我們在投資者日為股東制定的財務目標前進。我們致力於為我們的基金投資者提供強勁的業績、有吸引力的收入解決方案和下行保護回報。我們繼續加深與現有機構和財富合作夥伴的關係，並建立許多新的關係。我們不斷創新，以在競爭中保持領先地位，並為我們的股東推動增長。

The market backdrop has changed significantly since we've been public and continues to shift. But we think Blue Owl's business was purpose-built for this type of market, and our value proposition increases during environments such as these. That's not to say that these are easy environments to navigate, to fund raise through or to deploy capital into, it is truly a testament to the incredible efforts of our employees, the invaluable expertise we have across the firm and the benefits we're seeing from bringing these businesses together.

自我們上市以來，市場背景發生了巨大變化，並且還在繼續變化。但我們認為 Blue Owl 的業務是專門為此類市場打造的，我們的價值主張在此類環境中會增加。這並不是說這些環境很容易駕馭、籌集資金或部署資金，這確實證明了我們員工的難以置信的努力、我們在整個公司擁有的寶貴專業知識以及我們所看到的好處通過將這些業務整合在一起。

Ultimately, the way I think about our business is this. We operate a capital-light model focused on substantial capital return to shareholders, supported by a very stable and growing asset and fee base, essentially an annuity with growth. And in thinking about our earnings profile over the next few years, the question for us is not as it is for many companies, whether we're going to grow, it's how fast we'll grow. That is the value of permanent capital and management fee-driven earnings.

最終，我對我們業務的看法是這樣的。我們採用輕資本模式，專注於向股東提供大量資本回報，並得到非常穩定且不斷增長的資產和費用基礎的支持，本質上是一種增長的年金。在考慮我們未來幾年的盈利狀況時，對我們來說，問題不是像許多公司那樣，我們是否會增長，而是我們增長的速度。這是永久資本和管理費驅動的收益的價值。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Marc to give you an update on our Direct Lending and Real Estate businesses. Marc?

有了這個，我想把電話轉給馬克，向您介紹我們直接貸款和房地產業務的最新情況。馬克？

Great. Thanks so much, Doug. Throughout the fourth quarter, Blue Owl continued to play an integral role as a liquidity provider to sponsors in a market where capital has been scarce. We continue to see attractive opportunities at wider spreads and lower loan to values than a year ago, financing large and high-quality companies. In 2022, gross originations and direct lending were $22 billion, just 7% below our 2021 originations, despite a meaningful drop-off in industry volume. We looked at nearly 70 deals with facility sizes in excess of $1 billion, well exceeding over 40 investments of that size we evaluated in 2021. In the fourth quarter, gross originations were $3.5 billion, and net funded deployment was $2.5 billion, a moderate slowdown from our year-to-date pace that reflected timing considerations and slower repayments.

偉大的。非常感謝，道格。在整個第四季度，Blue Owl 繼續在資本稀缺的市場中作為贊助商的流動性提供者發揮不可或缺的作用。與一年前相比，我們繼續看到利差擴大和貸款價值比降低的有吸引力的機會，為大型優質公司提供融資。 2022 年，總發起和直接貸款為 220 億美元，僅比我們 2021 年的發起低 7%，儘管行業數量大幅下降。我們查看了近 70 筆設施規模超過 10 億美元的交易，遠遠超過我們在 2021 年評估的 40 多筆此類規模的投資。第四季度，總發起金額為 35 億美元，淨資金部署為 25 億美元，增速適度放緩從我們年初至今的步伐反映了時間考慮和較慢的還款。

We remain constructive about the deployment environment and continue to see a robust pipeline for investment though we don't anticipate origination volume to look like the second half of 2021 and the early months of 2022 until there's a broader recovery in M&A volumes. Credit quality always remains a key focus for us, and we have been very stringent in our underwriting standards from day 1, closing on approximately 5% of the deals we've evaluated since inception.

我們對部署環境仍然持建設性態度，並繼續看到強勁的投資渠道，儘管我們預計在併購量出現更廣泛的複甦之前，發起量不會像 2021 年下半年和 2022 年初那樣。信用質量始終是我們關注的重點，從第一天起，我們的承銷標準就非常嚴格，完成了自成立以來我們評估的交易中的大約 5%。

We have been focused on the larger end of the direct lending market, financing companies that are key strategic players in their respective markets. In addition, we've largely stayed away from cyclical businesses in sectors that we view as carrying greater risk. We believe this selectivity has benefited the investors in our funds, and our loan portfolio remains in very good shape. Since inception, we have originated over $73 billion of loans with annualized realized losses of less than 5 basis points. And inclusive of realized gains, we've actually had annualized net realized gains of 3 basis points.

我們一直專注於直接貸款市場的較大一端，為在各自市場中作為關鍵戰略參與者的融資公司。此外，我們基本上遠離我們認為具有更大風險的行業中的周期性業務。我們相信這種選擇性使我們基金的投資者受益，我們的貸款組合保持良好狀態。自成立以來，我們發放了超過 730 億美元的貸款，年化已實現虧損不到 5 個基點。包括已實現收益在內，我們實際上已經實現了 3 個基點的年化淨實現收益。

Our weighted average loan to value remains in the low 40s across our Direct Lending portfolio and in the low 30s across our Tech portfolio. We've continued to see resiliency in the portfolio with ongoing positive revenue and EBITDA growth at the underlying companies, despite the headwinds of inflation.

我們的加權平均貸款價值比在我們的直接貸款組合中保持在 40 左右，在我們的技術組合中保持在 30 左右。儘管存在通貨膨脹的不利因素，但我們繼續看到投資組合的彈性，基礎公司的收入和 EBITDA 持續增長。

Now turning to performance. The Direct Lending portfolio achieved gross appreciation of 3.6% for the fourth quarter and 9.4% for 2022, outperforming the leveraged loan index by approximately 9 points and the high-yield index by over 20 points for the year. Now moving to Real Estate. We continue to see high levels of interest in our net lease strategy from investors and companies alike. With corporate borrowing costs elevated and financing markets choppier, the attractiveness of a net lease solution has resonated and our pipeline of opportunities remains robust with roughly $5.1 billion of transaction volume under letter of intent or contract to close and a near-term pipeline of about $24.5 billion of potential volume.

現在轉向性能。直接貸款組合在第四季度和 2022 年實現了 3.6% 的總增值和 9.4%，全年跑贏槓桿貸款指數約 9 個點和高收益指數超過 20 個點。現在搬到房地產。我們繼續看到投資者和公司等對我們的淨租賃策略表現出高度興趣。隨著企業借貸成本上升和融資市場動盪，淨租賃解決方案的吸引力引起共鳴，我們的機會管道仍然強勁，根據意向書或合同關閉的交易量約為 51 億美元，近期管道約為 24.5 美元億的潛在量。

Inclusive of announced acquisition activity, we have invested or committed nearly all of the equity in our fifth closed-end fund. Persistently high inflation remains a focus for many investors, driving demand for a net lease strategy with desirable inflation hedging characteristics as the CapEx, maintenance, taxes and other expenses of owning real estate are borne solely by the tenant.

包括已宣布的收購活動，我們已經投資或承諾了我們第五隻封閉式基金的幾乎所有股權。持續高通脹仍然是許多投資者關注的焦點，這推動了對具有理想通脹對沖特徵的淨租賃策略的需求，因為擁有房地產的資本支出、維護、稅收和其他費用完全由租戶承擔。

Our latest open-end product, Net Lease Trust, has reached $1 billion of capital raised, primarily through just 1 large wirehouse platform, and we look forward to continuing to expand the syndicate over the coming quarters. And we are the first close on our sixth drawdown fund for our net lease strategy at approximately $2 billion and expect to wrap up fundraising sometime in the first half of 2023.

我們最新的開放式產品 Net Lease Trust 已籌集到 10 億美元的資金，主要是通過 1 個大型 wirehouse 平台，我們期待在未來幾個季度繼續擴大財團。我們是我們淨租賃戰略的第六支提款基金的第一筆資金，金額約為 20 億美元，預計將在 2023 年上半年的某個時候完成籌款。

We achieved gross appreciation across our Real Estate portfolio of 4% for the fourth quarter and 20.6% for 2022. We think these are noteworthy risk-adjusted returns for the very strong underlying credit profile of these portfolios, particularly given the downside protection presented by the contractual income streams and the long duration leases.

我們的房地產投資組合在第四季度和 2022 年分別實現了 4% 和 20.6% 的總增值。我們認為這些投資組合非常強大的基礎信用狀況的風險調整後回報值得注意，特別是考慮到合同收入流和長期租賃。

In summary, we continue to see very strong demand from investors for our income-generating downside protected strategies across our Direct Lending and Real Estate businesses, and we continue to find attractive opportunities to put capital to work. With that, let me turn to Michael to discuss GP Capital Solutions.

總之，我們繼續看到投資者對我們在直接貸款和房地產業務中的創收下行保護策略的強烈需求，我們繼續尋找有吸引力的機會來投入資金。有了這個，讓我轉向邁克爾討論 GP Capital Solutions。

Thank you, Marc. 2022 was a very successful year for our GP Capital Solutions business as we closed our fifth fund at a record $12.9 billion, over 40% above our initial target, making it the largest fund ever raised in the space. During the year, we deployed about $4 billion of capital into attractive opportunities, closing 9 transactions in Dyal V across new and existing partner managers. This is consistent with our long-term deployment objectives and makes 2022 one of our most active years ever.

謝謝你，馬克。 2022 年對我們的 GP Capital Solutions 業務來說是非常成功的一年，因為我們以創紀錄的 129 億美元的價格關閉了我們的第五隻基金，比我們最初的目標高出 40% 以上，使其成為該領域有史以來籌集的最大基金。在這一年裡，我們將大約 40 億美元的資金投入到有吸引力的機會中，在 Dyal V 完成了 9 筆交易，涉及新的和現有的合作夥伴經理。這符合我們的長期部署目標，並使 2022 年成為我們有史以來最活躍的年份之一。

We now have 17 partner managers in Fund V, constituting a diversified group of world-class managers that we believe will grow substantially and benefit most from the growth and market share trends that shape private markets today. Given our scale, we remain focused on the largest firms within the alternatives universe. And those are the managers that continue to raise the lion's share of institutional and retail capital, and we see this dynamic accelerate during years where the fundraising environment is more challenging.

我們現在在 Fund V 中有 17 名合夥人經理，構成了一個由世界級經理組成的多元化團隊，我們相信他們將大幅增長，並從塑造當今私募市場的增長和市場份額趨勢中受益最多。鑑於我們的規模，我們仍然專注於另類投資領域中最大的公司。這些是繼續籌集大部分機構和零售資本的經理，我們看到這種動態在籌款環境更具挑戰性的年份加速。

Through the third quarter of 2022, funds greater than $1 billion received roughly 3/4 of the total capital raised across the industry, up from 2/3 in prior years. Total invested commitments for Dyal V, including agreements and principles, will bring Fund V to $8.9 billion of capital committed or roughly 70% of the fund. The forward pipeline remains strong, and we continue to evaluate numerous opportunities that are quite attractive.

到 2022 年第三季度，超過 10 億美元的基金獲得了整個行業募集資金總額的大約 3/4，高於往年的 2/3。 Dyal V 的總投資承諾，包括協議和原則，將使基金 V 的承諾資本達到 89 億美元，約占基金的 70%。未來的管道仍然強勁，我們繼續評估許多非常有吸引力的機會。

Our business services platform, which provides strategic value-added services to our partner managers across key areas such as corporate strategy, talent management, ESG advisory and data science, remained very active during the year. The team at BSP supported our partner managers with growth initiatives across their businesses, assisting with recruitment efforts, advising on new product launches and M&A and working with them on digital transformation projects, among others.

我們的業務服務平台在企業戰略、人才管理、ESG 諮詢和數據科學等關鍵領域為我們的合作夥伴經理提供戰略增值服務，在這一年中仍然非常活躍。 BSP 的團隊支持我們的合作夥伴經理在他們的業務中採取增長計劃，協助招聘工作，就新產品發布和併購提供建議，並與他們合作開展數字化轉型項目等。

Performance across Dyal funds remained strong, with a net IRR of 24% for Fund III, 51% for Fund IV and 37% for Fund V, all of which compare favorably to the median returns for private equity funds of the same vintages. Moving to our professional sports minority investment strategy. We have sold our minority stake in the Phoenix Suns at an attractive multiples.

Dyal 基金的表現依然強勁，基金 III 的淨內部收益率為 24%，基金 IV 為 51%，基金 V 為 37%，所有這些均優於同期私募股權基金的回報率中值。轉向我們的專業體育少數民族投資策略。我們以極具吸引力的倍數出售了菲尼克斯太陽隊的少數股權。

In addition, to date, we have closed on over $500 million of commitment to the strategy. We're very optimistic about what the next 12 months hold for the GP Capital Solutions business. LP demand for GP stakes remains high, as demonstrated by our recent Dyal V fund raise, and we look forward to expanding the breadth of our investor base even further with the next fund.

此外，迄今為止，我們已經完成了超過 5 億美元的戰略承諾。我們對未來 12 個月 GP Capital Solutions 業務的前景非常樂觀。 LP 對 GP 股份的需求仍然很高，正如我們最近的 Dyal V 基金募集所證明的那樣，我們期待通過下一個基金進一步擴大我們的投資者基礎的廣度。

From a deployment perspective, we continue to see robust interest from well-known and scaled alternative asset managers. We look forward to launching conversations with investors on Fund VI later this year and are actively working to expand our LP base further, exploring additional strategic relationships and partnerships in wealth and educating our combined institutional investor base on the benefits of GP Solutions as a strategy. With that, I will turn things over to Alan to discuss our financial results.

從部署的角度來看，我們繼續看到知名和規模龐大的另類資產管理公司的濃厚興趣。我們期待在今年晚些時候就 Fund VI 與投資者展開對話，並積極努力進一步擴大我們的 LP 基礎，探索更多的戰略關係和財富合作夥伴關係，並就 GP Solutions 作為一項戰略的好處對我們的聯合機構投資者基礎進行教育。有了這個，我將把事情交給艾倫來討論我們的財務結果。

Thank you, Michael. Good morning, everyone. I'm going to start off by walking through the numbers for the fourth quarter and the full year 2022, and then I'll touch on a few other items I want to cover today. I'll be making references to pages in our earnings presentation so please feel free to have that available to follow along.

謝謝你，邁克爾。大家，早安。我將首先介紹第四季度和 2022 年全年的數字，然後我將談談我今天想介紹的其他一些項目。我將參考我們的收益演示文稿中的頁面，因此請隨時提供這些頁面以供後續使用。

To start off, we are very pleased with our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results. As you can see on Slide 5, we are right where we said we would be and have achieved the goals we set out for ourselves in 2022. We achieved our goal of $1.3 billion of revenue. We achieved our goal of a 60% FRE margin, and we track nicely in very tough and volatile markets against our goal of raising $50 billion of fee-paying AUM by the end of 2023 by completing the year 2022 with $25 billion raised, halfway towards our goal.

首先，我們對第四季度和 2022 年全年的業績感到非常滿意。正如您在幻燈片 5 中看到的那樣，我們實現了我們所說的目標，並且已經實現了我們在 2022 年為自己設定的目標。我們實現了 13 億美元收入的目標。我們實現了 60% FRE 利潤率的目標，我們在非常艱難和動蕩的市場中很好地跟踪了我們的目標，即到 2023 年底籌集 500 億美元的付費 AUM，在 2022 年完成時籌集了 250 億美元，實現了一半我們的目標。

Some other key highlights include total revenues were up 47% year-over-year, FRE is up 46% year-over-year, and DE is up 42% year-over-year. All of this was because we built our business differently than our peers. We built our business with a foundation of permanent capital and steady, predictable management fee cash flows.

其他一些重要亮點包括總收入同比增長 47%，FRE 同比增長 46%，DE 同比增長 42%。所有這一切都是因為我們建立業務的方式與同行不同。我們以永久資本和穩定、可預測的管理費現金流為基礎建立了我們的業務。

Okay. Let's cover our quarterly and full year results. Our fourth quarter was another quarter of strong growth for our business. Management fees are up $24.1 million or 7% from last quarter and up 61% year-over-year when you adjust for onetime catch-up fees in GP Capital Solutions. Broken down by strategy, Direct Lending management fees are up $21.2 million or 12% from last quarter and up 48% year-over-year. GP Capital Solutions management fees are up $1.3 million or 1% from last quarter and up 53% year-over-year, excluding catch-up fees. And Real Estate management fees are up $1.6 million or 8% from last quarter.

好的。讓我們來看看我們的季度和全年業績。我們的第四季度是我們業務強勁增長的又一個季度。當您調整 GP Capital Solutions 的一次性追加費用時，管理費比上一季度增加 2410 萬美元或 7%，同比增加 61%。按策略細分，直接貸款管理費較上一季度上漲 2120 萬美元或 12%，同比上漲 48%。 GP Capital Solutions 管理費比上一季度增加 130 萬美元或 1%，同比增加 53%，不包括追加費用。房地產管理費比上一季度增加 160 萬美元或 8%。

Compensation expense came in, in line with our expectations at 27% comp to revenue. G&A expense came in also in line with our expectations at $46 million for the quarter. For the full year 2022, total G&A costs came in at about $170 million. Placement costs being approximately $70 million of that and regular way G&A expense, excluding placement costs, being approximately $100 million.

薪酬支出佔收入的 27%，符合我們的預期。 G&A 費用也符合我們對本季度 4600 萬美元的預期。對於 2022 年全年，G&A 總成本約為 1.7 億美元。其中安置成本約為 7000 萬美元，常規 G&A 費用（不包括安置成本）約為 1 億美元。

As we think about 2023, we're expecting a roughly similar level of overall G&A expense, maybe slightly higher, with placement costs slightly down and regular-way G&A higher, driven by the overall growth of our business. FRE is up $12.1 million or 6% from last quarter and up 46% year-over-year. Our FRE margin came in right on top of the 60% level that we've all spoken about on previous calls. And we announced a dividend of $0.13 per share for the fourth quarter, up from $0.12 per share last quarter and $0.10 per share in the fourth quarter a year ago, resulting in a 30% increase in our dividend year-over-year. All of this is in line with our expectations and what we noted at Investor Day in May of 2022 and on our earnings call last quarter. Now I'd like to spend a moment on our fundraising efforts. We were pleased with our results for the quarter, in particular, considering the strong headwinds in challenging markets for the last 6 months.

當我們考慮 2023 年時，我們預計總體 G&A 費用水平大致相似，可能略高，安置成本略有下降，常規方式 G&A 更高，這是由我們業務的整體增長推動的。 FRE 比上一季度增長 1210 萬美元或 6%，同比增長 46%。我們的 FRE 利潤率恰好高於我們在之前的電話會議上都談到的 60% 水平。我們宣布第四季度的每股股息為 0.13 美元，高於上一季度的每股 0.12 美元和去年第四季度的每股 0.10 美元，導致我們的股息同比增長 30%。所有這些都符合我們的預期以及我們在 2022 年 5 月的投資者日和上個季度的財報電話會議上指出的內容。現在我想花點時間談談我們的籌款工作。我們對本季度的業績感到滿意，尤其是考慮到過去 6 個月充滿挑戰的市場的強勁逆風。

As a reminder, as you can see on Slide 13, in the fourth quarter of 2021, we raised $3.9 billion and now in the fourth quarter of 2022, we raised $4.9 billion. I'll break this down across our strategies and products. In Direct Lending, we raised $1.7 billion, almost $1 billion raised in our tech lending strategy and over $700 million raised in our diversified lending strategy, including almost $600 million raised in our retail distributed core income BDC, ORCIC.

提醒一下，正如您在幻燈片 13 中看到的那樣，在 2021 年第四季度，我們籌集了 39 億美元，現在在 2022 年第四季度，我們籌集了 49 億美元。我將在我們的戰略和產品中對此進行分解。在直接貸款方面，我們籌集了 17 億美元，我們的技術貸款戰略籌集了近 10 億美元，我們的多元化貸款戰略籌集了超過 7 億美元，其中包括零售分佈式核心收入 BDC，ORCIC 籌集的近 6 億美元。

In GP Capital Solutions, we raised approximately $600 million as we completed the fund raise for Fund V. In terms of guidance for a run rate revenue number for 2023, for the GP Capital Solutions strategy overall, I would think of that as around $550 million. In Real Estate, we raised $2.7 billion, $1.9 billion in our new Real Estate Fund VI. We generally expect to wrap up fundraising for this product in the first half of this year, and we remain on track with our Investor Day goals for fundraising here and $800 million for our Net Lease Trust product, our new non-traded REIT.

在 GP Capital Solutions 中，我們在完成 Fund V 的融資後籌集了大約 6 億美元。就 2023 年運行率收入數字的指導而言，對於 GP Capital Solutions 的整體戰略，我認為約為 5.5 億美元.在房地產方面，我們在新的房地產基金 VI 中籌集了 27 億美元和 19 億美元。我們通常希望在今年上半年完成該產品的籌款活動，並且我們將繼續實現投資者日的籌款目標，並為我們的新非交易房地產投資信託基金 Net Lease Trust 產品籌集 8 億美元。

As it relates to our AUM metrics on Slide 12, we reported AUM of $138.2 billion, fee-paying AUM of $88.8 billion and total permanent capital of $110.7 billion. AUM not yet paying fees was $10.8 billion as of December 31. AUM grew $6.1 billion to $138.2 billion, a 5% increase from last quarter and a 46% increase from the fourth quarter a year ago. Fee paying AUM grew $4.7 billion to $88.8 billion, a 6% increase from last quarter and a 45% increase from the fourth quarter a year ago.

由於它與我們在幻燈片 12 上的 AUM 指標相關，我們報告的 AUM 為 1382 億美元，付費 AUM 為 888 億美元，永久資本總額為 1107 億美元。截至 12 月 31 日，尚未支付費用的 AUM 為 108 億美元。AUM 增長 61 億美元，達到 1382 億美元，比上一季度增長 5%，比去年第四季度增長 46%。付費 AUM 增長 47 億美元，達到 888 億美元，比上一季度增長 6%，比去年第四季度增長 45%。

Both metrics driven primarily by capital raise and deployment in Direct Lending, capital raise in GP stakes Fund V, capital raise in Real Estate Fund VI and the REITs and when looking at the growth from a year ago, the addition of our CLO business. Permanent Capital grew $4.7 billion to $110.7 billion, a 4% increase from last quarter and a 40% increase from the fourth quarter a year ago.

這兩個指標主要由直接貸款的融資和部署、GP 股權基金 V 的融資、房地產基金 VI 和 REITs 的融資以及從一年前的增長來看，我們的 CLO 業務的增加推動。 Permanent Capital 增長 47 億美元，達到 1107 億美元，比上一季度增長 4%，比去年第四季度增長 40%。

As a reminder, 94% of our management fees are from these permanent capital vehicles. AUM not yet paying fees was $10.8 billion, including $7.4 billion in Direct Lending, $1 billion in GP Capital Solutions and $2.4 billion in Real Estate. This AUM corresponds to an expected increase in annual management fees totaling over $140 million once deployed.

提醒一下，我們 94% 的管理費來自這些永久性資本工具。尚未支付費用的 AUM 為 108 億美元，其中包括 74 億美元的直接貸款、10 億美元的 GP Capital Solutions 和 24 億美元的房地產。一旦部署，這一 AUM 對應於年度管理費用的預期增長總額超過 1.4 億美元。

As Marc highlighted earlier, in our Direct Lending strategy, we had gross originations of $3.5 billion for the quarter and net funded deployment of $2.5 billion. This brings our gross originations for the last 12 months to $22 billion with $14.4 billion of net funded deployment. So as it relates to the $7.4 billion of AUM not yet paying fees in Direct Lending, it would take us about 2 quarters to fully deploy this based on our average net funded deployment pace over the last 12 months, although our current deployment pace is a little slower than that.

正如 Marc 之前強調的那樣，在我們的直接貸款戰略中，我們本季度的總發起額為 35 億美元，淨資金部署為 25 億美元。這使我們過去 12 個月的總發起額達到 220 億美元，淨資金部署為 144 億美元。因此，由於它涉及尚未支付直接貸款費用的 74 億美元 AUM，根據我們過去 12 個月的平均淨資金部署速度，我們需要大約 2 個季度才能完全部署它，儘管我們目前的部署速度是比那慢一點。

Turning to our balance sheet. We continue to be in a strong capital position. As you can see on Slide 21, we currently have about $1 billion of liquidity with an average 14-year maturity and low 2.9% cost of borrowing. Now let's spend a few minutes talking about 2023, both our P&L and our move to a fixed dividend. When we think about our P&L, we have previously stated our goal for 2023 was to generate $1.8 billion of revenue double our 2021 revenues and would represent a 35% growth from 2022.

轉向我們的資產負債表。我們繼續處於強大的資本狀況。正如您在幻燈片 21 中所見，我們目前擁有約 10 億美元的流動資金，平均期限為 14 年，借貸成本低至 2.9%。現在讓我們花幾分鐘時間談談 2023 年，包括我們的損益和我們向固定股息的轉變。當我們考慮我們的損益時，我們之前曾表示我們 2023 年的目標是產生 18 億美元的收入，是 2021 年收入的兩倍，並且比 2022 年增長 35%。

We have previously stated our goal is to raise $50 billion of fee-paying AUM over the course of 2022 and 2023. As I mentioned earlier, we are halfway there through the end of 2022. The market backdrop is incredibly challenging, though. And what we're seeing is a little of a mix shift in our fundraising with some pressure on retail channels, but we're seeing continued institutional interest. We'll continue to update you. It's clearly a bit fluid, but we are tracking towards the $50 billion goal.

我們之前曾表示，我們的目標是在 2022 年和 2023 年期間籌集 500 億美元的付費 AUM。正如我之前提到的，到 2022 年底我們已經完成了一半。不過，市場背景極具挑戰性。我們看到的是我們的籌款活動有點混合變化，零售渠道也面臨一些壓力，但我們看到了持續的機構興趣。我們會繼續為您更新。這顯然有點不穩定，但我們正在朝著 500 億美元的目標邁進。

And most importantly, we have previously stated our goal for 2023 was to generate $1 billion of distributable earnings, which would be an increase of approximately 35% from 2022. And these remain our expectations despite the very challenging market environment we are living through right now. Now turning our focus to our fixed dividend for 2023. Here's how we thought through it. As I just noted, we expect to post $1 billion of DE in 2023. We currently have approximately $1.4 billion of outstanding shares. That math kicks out roughly $0.70 per share in distributable earnings for 2023.

最重要的是，我們之前曾表示，我們 2023 年的目標是產生 10 億美元的可分配收益，這將比 2022 年增長約 35%。儘管我們目前所處的市場環境極具挑戰性，但這些仍然是我們的預期.現在將我們的注意力轉向 2023 年的固定股息。以下是我們的思考方式。正如我剛才提到的，我們預計到 2023 年將發布 10 億美元的 DE。我們目前擁有大約 14 億美元的流通股。該數學計算得出 2023 年每股可分配收益約為 0.70 美元。

We feel it's prudent from a capital allocation policy perspective to fix our dividend at $0.56 for 2023 or $0.14 per quarter to allow flexibility for capital allocation uses such as our share buyback program, funding GP commits and potential strategic acquisitions. And that comes out to an 80% distribution rate, in line with our policy of maximizing our distributable earnings payout ratio and a dividend yield over 4% based on our current share price.

我們認為，從資本配置政策的角度來看，將 2023 年的股息固定在 0.56 美元或每季度 0.14 美元是明智的做法，以便靈活地進行資本配置，例如我們的股票回購計劃、資助 GP 承諾和潛在的戰略收購。結果是 80% 的分配率，符合我們最大化可分配收益支付率和基於我們當前股價的 4% 以上股息收益率的政策。

Based on our $0.46 in dividends in 2022, this year's $0.56 represents a healthy increase in our dividend of 22% year-over-year. Looking forward, we expect to significantly increase our dividend on an annual basis, progressing towards our 2025 goal of $1 per share. So to wrap up here before getting to Q&A, there are a few other items I want to cover. A final update on buying back shares for 2022.

根據我們 2022 年 0.46 美元的股息，今年的 0.56 美元代表我們的股息同比健康增長 22%。展望未來，我們希望每年大幅增加股息，朝著我們 2025 年每股 1 美元的目標邁進。因此，在開始問答環節之前，我想在這裡總結一下其他一些內容。關於 2022 年回購股票的最終更新。

Over the course of the year, we bought back approximately 7.8 million shares for a total of approximately $81 million. On a separate note, I have commented throughout the year about the rising rate environment we're in and the potential impact it could have on our business. As expected and in line with our previous guidance, we saw another increase in our Part 1 fees from the previous quarter.

在這一年中，我們以總計約 8100 萬美元的價格回購了約 780 萬股股票。另外，我全年都在評論我們所處的利率上升環境及其對我們業務的潛在影響。正如預期並與我們之前的指導一致，我們發現我們的第 1 部分費用比上一季度再次增加。

In the fourth quarter, included in our management fee line, our Part 1 fees from our BDCs increased $15.4 million or 25% from the third quarter. A large portion of this was driven by higher interest rates and some of it was from AUM growth in our newer BDCs like ORCIC and ORTF II. We are expecting to see some additional increases in our Part 1 fees in 2023, albeit at a much more modest level as interest rates begin to stabilize in 2023 from the large increases in 2022.

在第四季度，包括在我們的管理費用項目中，我們來自 BDC 的第 1 部分費用比第三季度增加了 1540 萬美元或 25%。其中很大一部分是由更高的利率推動的，其中一部分是由於我們較新的 BDC（如 ORCIC 和 ORTF II）的 AUM 增長。我們預計 2023 年我們的第 1 部分費用會進一步增加，儘管隨著利率從 2022 年的大幅增加到 2023 年開始趨於穩定，增幅要溫和得多。

Now to shift gears to taxes. So what do taxes look like in 2023? To give you some guidance here, it's best to remind everyone about our structure, largely because the formation of Blue Owl was a taxable transaction to certain shareholders. Blue Owl now has certain tax benefits that we will be able to use for a number of years. It's hard to predict what those benefits are year-to-year. But for 2023, you should assume an overall tax rate in the mid-single digits.

現在轉向稅收。那麼 2023 年的稅收情況如何？為了在這裡給你一些指導，最好提醒大家注意我們的結構，主要是因為 Blue Owl 的成立對某些股東來說是一項應稅交易。 Blue Owl 現在有一定的稅收優惠，我們可以使用很多年。很難預測每年這些好處是什麼。但對於 2023 年，你應該假設整體稅率在中個位數。

As for '24 and '25, for now, we would suggest using a low teens tax rate. Again, taxes are hard to predict. But as we go through the year, we'll continue to update you on what future tax rates may look like. And finally, driving shareholder value. Earlier in 2022, we made a change to our voting structure, which enabled us to be added to the Russell indices, and today, we announced a fixed dividend for 2023.

至於 24 歲和 25 歲，我們目前建議使用較低的青少年稅率。同樣，稅收很難預測。但是隨著這一年的過去，我們會繼續向您通報未來稅率的最新情況。最後，推動股東價值。 2022 年初，我們改變了我們的投票結構，這使我們能夠被添加到羅素指數中，今天，我們宣布了 2023 年的固定股息。

We believe that these initiatives will help drive shareholder value over time, and this will remain an area of focus for us. So summing it all up, we are very pleased with how the year wrapped up. We delivered strong growth year-over-year in all of our key metrics, AUM, fee paying AUM, permanent capital, management fees, FRE and DE, with each of these metrics up over 40%.

我們相信，隨著時間的推移，這些舉措將有助於推動股東價值，而這仍將是我們關注的領域。總而言之，我們對這一年的結束方式感到非常滿意。我們在所有關鍵指標、AUM、付費 AUM、永久資本、管理費、FRE 和 DE 方面實現了強勁的同比增長，其中每一個指標都增長了 40% 以上。

As I think about all of the items I just ran through in my prepared remarks, I see them as a very strong message about our business model. In these times of market dislocation, volatility and overall strong headwinds, we continue to demonstrate strong, predictable, high-margin growth. Thank you again to everyone who's joined us on the call today. With that, operator, can we please open the line for questions?

當我想到我剛剛在準備好的發言中提到的所有項目時，我認為它們是關於我們商業模式的一個非常強烈的信息。在這些市場錯位、波動和整體強勁逆風的時代，我們繼續展示強勁、可預測的高利潤增長。再次感謝今天加入我們電話會議的所有人。有了這個，接線員，我們可以打開問題熱線嗎？

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。

These, maybe we can start off a little bit higher level, given the first question, just around the confidence on 2023 targets for you guys. So obviously, the retail backdrop is a bit softer and capital markets trends are not as helpful. There might be questions just around ability to both kind of get to the retail numbers, but also to recoup some of the fee waivers and see some of the fee step-ups that I think were originally incorporated in your kind of walk back from the Investor Day.

這些，也許我們可以從更高的層次開始，考慮到第一個問題，圍繞你們對 2023 年目標的信心。很明顯，零售業的背景有點疲軟，資本市場趨勢也沒有那麼大的幫助。可能存在一些問題，既有能力獲得零售數字，也有能力收回一些費用減免，並看到一些我認為最初包含在你從投資者那裡走回來的費用增加的能力天。

So maybe put some meat around the bones on kind of what gives you confidence that you can hit the targets that you guys have outlined and sort of help bridge the gap from where we are now to what the goals are?

因此，也許在骨頭周圍放一些肉，讓你有信心你可以達到你們概述的目標，並在某種程度上幫助彌合我們現在與目標之間的差距？

Sure. Thanks, Alex. It's Alan. Thanks for the question. So we continue to look at our forecast. We go through it every quarter. We refresh it every quarter. I did mention that -- to your question or comment about softness on the retail side, we are seeing a little bit of a mix shift where retail, we think in 2022, we saw retail raise a little more than institutional and what we're thinking out of the $25 billion that was raised.

當然。謝謝，亞歷克斯。是艾倫。謝謝你的問題。所以我們繼續看我們的預測。我們每個季度都會檢查它。我們每季度更新一次。我確實提到過——關於你關於零售方面疲軟的問題或評論，我們看到零售業發生了一些混合轉變，我們認為在 2022 年，我們看到零售業的融資比機構融資多一點，而我們正在考慮到籌集的 250 億美元。

And what we're seeing sitting here today is the inverse of that, which is we raised the other $25 billion in 2023 and institutional raised a little more than retail of that final $25 billion. So we are seeing a mix shift in that. I commented on that. We don't know what the markets hold in terms of IPO markets or any of our products stepping up to full fees, but as you know, when we turn the lights on every year because of the permanent capital base that we have, 94% of our management fees are from permanent capital. We have a very steady, predictable cash flowing business. And so we are expecting, based on all the inputs that go into our forecast for us to hit the $1.8 billion of revenue, the $1 billion of DE and the $50 billion of fee-paying AUM raise.

而我們今天坐在這裡看到的情況恰恰相反，我們在 2023 年籌集了另外 250 億美元，而機構籌集的資金略多於最後 250 億美元的散戶。所以我們看到了混合轉變。我對此發表了評論。我們不知道 IPO 市場的市場情況或我們的任何產品是否會收取全額費用，但正如您所知，由於我們擁有永久資本基礎，我們每年開燈時，94%我們的管理費來自永久資本。我們擁有非常穩定、可預測的現金流業務。因此，我們預計，根據我們預測的所有投入，我們將達到 18 億美元的收入、10 億美元的 DE 和 500 億美元的付費資產管理規模。

Alex, just one comment. I just want to remind -- I think you know this, but just remind everybody. Look, we raised $25 billion last year. And what I would describe as a really challenging and choppy market. And we're not saying it's going to be easy, but as we go through and take a look at what we have in the market and do a demand assessment, both retail and institutionally, we feel pretty good about hitting that number. But I think you know that assets are clearly really important to us, but our ultimate focus is on earnings. And Alan mentioned this, we feel very good about hitting that $1 billion of DE in '23.

亞歷克斯，只有一個評論。我只是想提醒——我想你知道這一點，但只是提醒大家。看，我們去年籌集了 250 億美元。我將描述為一個真正具有挑戰性和動蕩的市場。而且我們並不是說這會很容易，但是當我們審視我們在市場上擁有的東西並進行零售和機構需求評估時，我們對達到這個數字感到非常滿意。但我想你知道資產對我們來說顯然非常重要，但我們最終關注的是收益。艾倫提到了這一點，我們對在 23 年達到 10 億美元的 DE 感到非常高興。

The next question is from Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。

So look, I wish you had even more dry powder because it sounds like the investing landscape particularly on the Direct Lending side is pretty good. So I wonder if you could talk to -- I think that in digestion in [PE land] for LPs is well known. Could you talk about the state of the lending backdrop? I would think, given the availability of like much better yields on an unlevered basis out there, there'd be a lot of demand on the institutional side than direct lending. But can we talk -- put that in a package for us and how it feeds into obviously your confidence in '23?

所以看，我希望你有更多的干火藥，因為聽起來投資環境特別是在直接貸款方面非常好。所以我想知道你是否可以談談 - 我認為在 [PE 土地] 消化 LP 是眾所周知的。你能談談貸款背景的狀況嗎？我認為，鑑於在無槓桿基礎上可以獲得更好的收益率，機構方面的需求會比直接貸款多。但是我們可以談談——把它放在我們的包裹中，以及它如何明顯地增強你對 23 年的信心？

Absolutely, Glenn. So it's a great question. First of all, I share your wishes. We wish we had more dry powder also in Direct Lending. It really is an exceptional time. 2022, the intersection of credit quality, most importantly, in a Blue Owl world as well as spreads, terms, sort of all the intersecting components is as good as we've ever seen and reflects itself ultimately in the role Direct Lending played in 2022 and continues to play. If you take a look at the largest -- take private transactions, all of the year, about half of them were done by direct lenders.

當然，格倫。所以這是一個很好的問題。首先，我同意你的願望。我們希望我們在直接貸款中也有更多的干粉。這確實是一個特殊的時刻。 2022 年，信用質量的交集，最重要的是，在 Blue Owl 世界中，以及利差、條款和所有交叉組成部分的交集，將達到我們所見過的最好，並最終反映在直接貸款在 2022 年所扮演的角色中並繼續玩。如果你看一下最大的私人交易，全年都有大約一半是由直接貸方完成的。

And frankly, of those half, we were a lead in almost over every one of them. And we really think the opportunity is tremendous. We think about just looking over a year, 1.5 years between base rates and then some incremental spread one gets today on an incremental loan, you go from a world of making an 8% unlevered to making a 12% unleveraged, it takes senior secured risk, where -- and in fact, many of these were software, which we particularly specialize and lead in, you're talking about loan to values in the low 30s.

坦率地說，在這一半中，我們幾乎領先於每一半。我們真的認為這個機會是巨大的。我們考慮只看一年多，基本利率之間的 1.5 年，然後是今天通過增量貸款獲得的一些增量利差，你從一個 8% 的無槓桿世界變成 12% 的無槓桿世界，它需要高級擔保風險，其中 - 事實上，其中許多是軟件，我們特別擅長和領先，你說的是 30 年代低價值的貸款。

So all the way of reinforcing what I think your observation about the market, it's a very attractive time for us to deploy capital. And I would say institutions get that. We are seeing a lot of interest from institutions because they see the risk return, you'll be able to generate double-digit net returns to take extremely high in the cap stack risk in an uncertain world is pretty appealing. So we are seeing a lot of interest on the institutional side. And we continue to see a lot of interest on the retail side.

因此，一路強化我認為你對市場的觀察，這是我們部署資本的一個非常有吸引力的時間。我會說機構明白這一點。我們看到機構很感興趣，因為他們看到了風險回報，你將能夠產生兩位數的淨回報，在不確定的世界中承擔極高的上限風險是非常有吸引力的。因此，我們在機構方面看到了很多興趣。我們繼續看到零售方面的很多興趣。

As Alan said, a bit of a mix shift. But in many regards, yes, there's some turbulence in the retail market, but more than anything that mix shift probably reflects the strength of institutional drive towards this asset class. And you see people talking about it exactly as that, as an asset class now. For many people, it wasn't even an asset class before. So we're very, very positive on the outlook for institutional involvement in this, again, asset class this year and beyond for that matter.

正如艾倫所說，有點混合轉變。但在許多方面，是的，零售市場存在一些動盪，但最重要的是，這種混合轉變可能反映了機構對這一資產類別的推動力。你看到人們正像現在這樣談論它，作為一種資產類別。對於很多人來說，它以前甚至都不是資產類別。因此，我們對今年及以後機構參與這一資產類別的前景非常非常樂觀。

The next question is from Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Patrick Davitt。

Just trying to think about what wealth flows could look like this year, and I understand it can be a volatile group of investors. Could you maybe update us on how the gross sales and redemption requests look so far in 1Q? And then secondly, how is the -- what is the visible pipeline for adding new platforms? And what's your best guess for the cadence of those coming online for each of the 3 big retail products?

只是想想想今年的財富流動會是什麼樣子，我知道這可能是一群不穩定的投資者。您能否向我們介紹 1Q 到目前為止的總銷售額和贖回請求情況？其次，添加新平台的可見管道是什麼？對於三大零售產品的上線節奏，您的最佳猜測是什麼？

Sure. Thank you, Patrick. I'll cover the redemption side and then Doug will talk to pulling the lens back what are we seeing and how are we building our syndicates. So on the redemption side, we are seeing much lighter redemptions than others in the space. We have the similar 5% per quarter levels in our docks, and we're seeing about half of that come through by way of redemptions. And that's actually been pretty consistent the last 3 or so quarters in a row.

當然。謝謝你，帕特里克。我將介紹贖回方面，然後道格將討論將鏡頭拉回我們所看到的以及我們如何建立我們的集團。因此，在贖回方面，我們看到的贖回比該領域的其他人少得多。我們的碼頭每季度有類似的 5% 的水平，我們看到其中大約一半是通過贖回來實現的。這實際上連續 3 個左右的季度非常一致。

And more importantly, on the net flow side, we are still seeing very positive strong net flows. So the net flows coming in, the gross flows are significantly above the redemption levels in each of our products. Doug, do you want...

更重要的是，在淨流量方面，我們仍然看到非常強勁的淨流量。因此，流入的淨流量，總流量大大高於我們每個產品的贖回水平。道格，你想...

Sure. Thanks, Patrick. So look, we really weren't that surprised to see wealth flows slow down during '22. The markets were incredibly volatile. And I -- when we got into this 7, 8 years ago, we never thought it was going to be a straight line up to the right. And I can tell you, as an institution, we're still really excited about the opportunity. We still believe that over time, I can't tell you the exact amount of time, but over time, trillions of dollars are going to go from the wealth channel into the alternative space.

當然。謝謝，帕特里克。所以看，我們對 22 世紀財富流動放緩並不感到驚訝。市場異常動盪。而我——當我們在 7、8 年前進入這個項目時，我們從沒想過它會是一條向右的直線。我可以告訴你，作為一個機構，我們仍然對這個機會感到非常興奮。我們仍然相信，隨著時間的推移，我不能告訴你確切的時間，但隨著時間的推移，數万億美元將從財富渠道進入另類空間。

And I think we are uniquely positioned to capture more than our fair share of that money flowing in. I think Alan commented during his comments, across our platform in the fourth quarter, we had $2.2 billion of inflows from the wealth channel, and we only had $186 million of redemptions. Let me say that one more time, $2.2 billion of inflows, $186 million of redemptions. We think that's pretty good.

而且我認為我們處於獨特的位置，可以在流入的資金中獲得超過我們公平份額的資金。我認為艾倫在評論中評論說，第四季度在我們的平台上，我們從財富渠道流入了 22 億美元，我們只有 1.86 億美元的贖回。讓我再說一遍，22 億美元的流入，1.86 億美元的贖回。我們認為這很好。

And as you think about the markets going forward, if they were to remain choppy or volatile, it's probably a good starting point for us. No guarantees, but I think what we've done is a couple of things. One, with the market pulling back, it's given everybody a chance to just catch their breath. And so we have been out, we've met with all the wirehouses, RIAs, other distributors, spending a lot of time on education, and I think that's helped minimize redemptions.

當你考慮未來的市場時，如果它們繼續波動或波動，這對我們來說可能是一個很好的起點。不能保證，但我認為我們所做的是幾件事。第一，隨著市場回落，每個人都有機會喘口氣。所以我們已經出去了，我們會見了所有的 wirehouses、RIAs 和其他分銷商，在教育上花費了大量時間，我認為這有助於最大限度地減少贖回。

But we've also gotten a sense of what are the products they think they want to bring later this year or early next year. And I can tell you that 2 things I feel pretty good about. One, over the next 12, maximum 18 months, you will see us introduce into the wealth space, a number of differentiated products. And two, and I can't give you exact numbers and timing, you will see us significantly increase the syndicate for our products that are currently in the market.

但我們也了解到他們認為他們希望在今年晚些時候或明年初推出的產品是什麼。我可以告訴你有兩件事我感覺很好。第一，在接下來的 12 個月內，最多 18 個月內，您將看到我們將一些差異化產品引入財富空間。第二，我不能給你確切的數字和時間，你會看到我們顯著增加了我們目前在市場上的產品的辛迪加。

So net-net, we are still unbelievably bullish, and we're pleased with how we're performing in this difficult market.

所以淨淨，我們仍然難以置信地看漲，我們對我們在這個困難市場中的表現感到滿意。

The next question is from Brian McKenna with JMP Securities.

下一個問題來自 JMP 證券公司的 Brian McKenna。

Great. So I appreciate the color around the dividend and payout ratio. So if I assume an 80% payout ratio on your 2025 dividend of a $1, that implied to $1.25 of EPS or about 35% EPS growth annually in 2024 and 2025. So could you maybe just talk about some of the underlying drivers that will ultimately get you to these figures?

偉大的。所以我很欣賞股息和派息率的顏色。因此，如果我假設 2025 年 1 美元股息的派息率為 80%，這意味著 2024 年和 2025 年的每股收益為 1.25 美元，或者每股收益每年增長約 35%。那麼，你能否談談最終將成為現實的一些潛在驅動因素得到這些數字了嗎？

Sure, Brian. Thank you. I appreciate the question. Look, we spent a lot of time going through, as I mentioned earlier, the forecast, in particular, for 2023, but we certainly refreshed on 2025, I wouldn't lock in an 80% distribution rate. We -- I expect that we will move around over time up and down from the 85% level that we were at in 2022.

當然，布賴恩。謝謝。我很欣賞這個問題。看，正如我之前提到的，我們花了很多時間進行預測，特別是 2023 年的預測，但我們肯定會在 2025 年更新，我不會鎖定 80% 的分配率。我們——我預計隨著時間的推移，我們將在 2022 年的 85% 水平上下波動。

So this year, we're going to do a little lower 80%. You could certainly see us going higher from 85% to 90-plus percent in future years. It really depends on capital allocation, how much we want to hold back depending on things we're talking about at the management table. So that's one. And look, we have a lot of exciting products that Doug and Marc and Michael have talked about on this call and on previous calls, something like GP Stakes Fund VI. We're doing a lot in the Real Estate business right now, both for Real Estate Fund VI and the new REIT that we just launched later last year.

所以今年，我們將降低 80%。你當然可以看到我們在未來幾年從 85% 上升到 90% 以上。這真的取決於資本配置，我們想要保留多少取決於我們在管理層討論的事情。這就是一個。看，我們有很多令人興奮的產品，Doug、Marc 和 Michael 在這次電話會議和之前的電話會議上都談到過，比如 GP Stakes Fund VI。我們現在在房地產業務方面做了大量工作，包括房地產基金 VI 和我們去年晚些時候剛剛推出的新房地產投資信託基金。

And then in the Direct Lending business, we have a number of new product rollouts as well. So we would continue to expect to grow our business year-over-year at pretty substantial growth rates and be able to put up that dollar share dividend that we've all talked about in 2025.

然後在直接貸款業務中，我們也推出了許多新產品。因此，我們將繼續期望我們的業務以相當可觀的增長率逐年增長，並能夠提供我們在 2025 年都談到的美元股息。

The next question is from Adam Beatty with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Adam Beatty。

Just wanted to ask about some of the underlying performance in the Direct Lending book. A lot of the questions and concerns we have from investors is around sort of credit quality and recognize that you guys have had really de minimis loss rates over the years, offset by gains, et cetera.

只是想問問直接貸款書中的一些基本表現。我們從投資者那裡得到的很多問題和擔憂都與信貸質量有關，並認識到你們這些年來的損失率確實微乎其微，但被收益等抵消了。

But just in terms of the underlying portfolio, whether it's maybe nonaccrual rates or EBITDA growth of the portfolio companies or anything else you could give just to give some color and support around the performance of the portfolio?

但就基礎投資組合而言，無論是非應計利率還是投資組合公司的 EBITDA 增長，還是您可以提供的任何其他東西，只是為了給投資組合的業績提供一些色彩和支持？

More than happy to. Credit quality has always been and will be the central focus for the Blue Owl credit strategies. That's really what we live and breathe. Look, that matters a tremendous amount to us. We focus on it intensely. And thankfully even we will deliver world-class results in it. I do want to say before I jump into the answers to your question, for a Blue Owl shareholder, it doesn't actually matter. Remember, you get paid fees, we have a fee-only business, and the only business from permanent capital.

非常高興。信用質量一直是並將成為 Blue Owl 信用策略的核心焦點。這確實是我們生活和呼吸的東西。看，這對我們來說意義重大。我們非常關注它。值得慶幸的是，即使我們將在其中取得世界一流的成果。在回答你的問題之前，我確實想說，對於 Blue Owl 股東來說，這實際上並不重要。請記住，您獲得付費，我們有一個只收費的業務，並且是唯一來自永久資本的業務。

Now again, it matters a lot to us because this is what we live and breathe and how we deliver for our LPs. But I just want to remind us, depending on exactly where you sit and in this case as a Blue Owl shareholder, it doesn't actually impact you. With that said, our credit quality remains very strong. We continue to see very strong portfolio performance. That is to say, if we look at revenue and EBITDA growth year-over-year, it continues to be very strong across the portfolio on average.

再一次，這對我們來說很重要，因為這是我們生活和呼吸的東西，也是我們為有限合夥人提供服務的方式。但我只想提醒我們，這取決於你的確切位置，在這種情況下，作為 Blue Owl 的股東，它實際上不會影響你。話雖如此，我們的信用質量仍然非常強勁。我們繼續看到非常強勁的投資組合表現。也就是說，如果我們看一下收入和 EBITDA 的同比增長，平均而言，它在整個投資組合中仍然非常強勁。

We have not seen any material increase in amendment request. We have not seen a material increase in [kick] request. We continue to monitor the portfolio, but it continues to perform on average very well. Look, of course, it's an uncertain environment. So I don't say that as if we're not sitting here spending every day thinking about what happens if, what happens if, because that's indeed where we spend our time and where we should spend our time. But we are not seeing it in the underlying performance of the companies or the portfolio today.

我們沒有看到修改請求有任何實質性增加。我們沒有看到 [kick] 請求的實質性增加。我們繼續監控投資組合，但它的平均表現仍然非常好。看，當然，這是一個不確定的環境。所以我這麼說並不是好像我們不是每天坐在這裡思考如果會發生什麼，如果會發生什麼，因為那確實是我們花時間的地方，也是我們應該花時間的地方。但我們在今天的公司或投資組合的基本表現中看不到它。

I think we only have 3 companies total on nonaccrual across our very large platform. So I think we all continue to feel very good about the underwriting that got us here in the first place and the performance of the portfolio from there. And just to pull back up and cap it off on the numbers, look, if you look sitting here today, we've originated about $73 billion in loans since inception. And we continue, as we sit here, to run at an average annualized loss rate of less than 5 basis points.

我認為在我們非常大的平台上，我們總共只有 3 家公司是非應計的。因此，我認為我們所有人都繼續對首先讓我們來到這裡的承銷以及投資組合的表現感到非常滿意。只是為了拉回並限制數字，看，如果你今天坐在這裡，自成立以來我們已經發放了大約 730 億美元的貸款。當我們坐在這裡時，我們繼續以低於 5 個基點的平均年化損失率運行。

And in fact, when you take into account gains in those portfolios as well, we actually have a net realized gain of 3 basis points. So really continues to be our strength, and we'll continue to be vigilant, and we'll continue to plan for darker days, but we're in a good place as we head into that.

事實上，當你也考慮到這些投資組合的收益時，我們實際上有 3 個基點的淨實現收益。所以真的繼續成為我們的力量，我們將繼續保持警惕，我們將繼續為更黑暗的日子做計劃，但我們正處於一個很好的位置，因為我們正朝著那個方向前進。

The next question is from Ken Worthington with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Worthington。

One of the stats you gave is that you closed on -- or you've closed on 5% of deals that you've looked at since inception. I guess, how did that statistic look in, say, the second half of 2022? And how did it vary between more general lending versus tech lending? And then along these same lines, what are you seeing from the banks in terms of reengagement in Direct Lending as we start the year? And is the 5% close what you'd expect to see for 2023?

你給出的其中一項統計數據是你關閉了——或者你已經關閉了自開始以來你查看過的交易的 5%。我想，該統計數據在 2022 年下半年的情況如何？更一般的貸款與技術貸款之間有何不同？然後沿著同樣的思路，在我們開始今年的時候，你對銀行重新參與直接貸款有什麼看法？ 5% 的收盤價是否接近您對 2023 年的預期？

It's generally been steady. I mean, look, there's certainly variances quarter-to-quarter, year-to-year, but no pattern narrow of note that we've observed recently. I would say -- look, statistic, we obviously pay a lot of attention to. I would say this, listen, we'd be perfectly happy if the mix of deals was so great, but the number was higher. Look, we're always going to do it, maybe days will be lower, maybe days will be higher. The key is to see a tremendous amount of investment opportunity and be extremely selective.

大體上是平穩的。我的意思是，你看，每個季度、每年都有差異，但沒有我們最近觀察到的明顯模式。我會說 - 看，統計數據，我們顯然非常關注。我會這樣說，聽著，如果交易組合如此之好，我們會非常高興，但數量更高。看，我們總是會這樣做，也許天數會減少，也許天數會增加。關鍵是要看到大量的投資機會，並且要非常有選擇性。

And so whatever that lands to mathematically is more, of course, output than an input. And we continue to really like what we're seeing. There's no doubt that M&A volume, of course, when I said this earlier -- in my earlier comments, obviously, M&A volume is down. PE activity is down, and we're not going to defy that. And obviously, our originations therefore -- in Q4, originations as we enter this new year are lower than they were if you look at comparable times a year ago.

因此，無論在數學上如何落地，當然都是輸出多於輸入。我們繼續非常喜歡我們所看到的。毫無疑問，併購量，當然，當我早些時候說過——在我之前的評論中，很明顯，併購量下降了。私募股權活動正在下降，我們不會違抗這一點。顯然，因此我們的起源 - 在第四季度，我們進入新的一年時的起源低於一年前的可比時間。

So we don't live in a vacuum, but the quality of what we're seeing and the sort of selectivity we can still apply by having 100 people that spend every day out originating and looking at and underwriting and having built these relationships. We have credits that now we've known are in our system. They're likely to stay in our system even when those companies get sold.

所以我們不是生活在真空中，而是我們所看到的質量和我們仍然可以應用的選擇性，方法是讓 100 人每天花在發起、研究和承銷並建立這些關係上。我們現在知道我們的系統中有學分。即使這些公司被出售，它們也可能會留在我們的系統中。

There's just -- there's a lot of forces at work that benefit us as an incumbent and it's someone that's proven to be a really reliable partner to so many great firms and great companies. So that's all kind of the context, I'd say, to selectivity. The -- what was the second part of the question?

只是 - 有很多力量在起作用，使我們作為現任者受益，而且它被證明是許多偉大公司和偉大公司真正可靠的合作夥伴。所以這就是選擇性的所有背景。問題的第二部分是什麼？

On the banks?

在岸邊？

The banks. Yes. So listen, it's a big world out there, right? It's a multitrillion dollar credit market, and I know a lot of stories are about the banks versus the private lenders. It's a world that needs both. Now today, the private lenders and frankly, during COVID, proved to be the stabilizing force for the market. And this is an interesting change if we think about the arc of 20 years, which is today, the private lenders, ourselves and a couple of others of real scale, are the ones that are consistently available to commercial users. And the public markets come and go.

銀行。是的。聽著，外面的世界很大，對吧？這是一個數万億美元的信貸市場，我知道很多故事都是關於銀行與私人貸方的。這是一個需要兩者的世界。今天，坦率地說，在 COVID 期間，私人貸方被證明是市場的穩定力量。如果我們考慮 20 年的弧線，這是一個有趣的變化，也就是今天，私人貸方，我們自己和其他一些具有實際規模的貸方，一直可供商業用戶使用。公開市場來來去去。

So we actually stabilize the capital markets and the economy in a way that, frankly, the public markets used to. The banks play a role in syndication. Today, they obviously are sitting on many tens of billions of dollars of paper, they need to work through. So we do not see a meaningfully active syndicated market. It was really nearly nonexistent so to speak of in the fourth quarter. So this has been a time where we've certainly taken up a lot of that slack and therefore, share, but there'll be plenty of room for both in the world over time.

所以我們實際上穩定了資本市場和經濟，坦率地說，公開市場過去常常這樣做。銀行在銀團中發揮作用。今天，他們顯然坐擁數百億美元的文件，他們需要解決這些問題。因此，我們沒有看到有意義的活躍銀團市場。可以說在第四季度幾乎不存在。因此，在這段時間裡，我們當然已經承擔了很多鬆懈，因此，分享，但隨著時間的推移，世界上兩者都會有足夠的空間。

The next question is from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

If we can zoom back in on retail, can you maybe characterize how you're sensing that risk appetite? Obviously, the tougher environment, but we do have a couple of quarters of positive markets. Do you think that is improving the risk appetite near term or people are remaining cautious? And then kind of contrasting that with the conversations that you're having with the gatekeepers of the platform, are they also cautious or more likely to embrace some of your differentiated products, including Real Estate?

如果我們可以重新關注零售業，您能否描述一下您如何看待這種風險偏好？顯然，環境更加艱難，但我們確實有幾個季度的積極市場。您是否認為這會改善近期的風險偏好或人們仍保持謹慎？然後將其與您與平台看門人的對話進行對比，他們是否也很謹慎或更有可能接受您的一些差異化產品，包括房地產？

And I don't know if you can comment on -- you mentioned some new products that you might be rolling out over the next 12 to 18 months. I don't know if you're able to comment on any of those, but any color would be great.

我不知道你是否可以評論——你提到了一些你可能會在未來 12 到 18 個月內推出的新產品。我不知道你是否可以對其中的任何一個發表評論，但任何顏色都會很棒。

All right. That's a lot for me to try to hit. So in terms of new products, unfortunately, we'll announce them as we roll them out. In terms of risk appetite at the firms, they really want new, interesting, differentiated type of strategies. And the reason the firms, the gatekeepers want it because that's what the end customers want. They want things that will allow them -- allow the wirehouses, in particular, to differentiate themselves with their client bases. So they have been very receptive.

好的。這對我來說很重要。因此，就新產品而言，不幸的是，我們會在推出時宣布它們。就公司的風險偏好而言，他們確實需要新的、有趣的、差異化的戰略。公司和守門人想要它的原因是因為這就是最終客戶想要的。他們想要的東西可以讓他們——尤其是讓電線公司在他們的客戶群中脫穎而出。所以他們非常樂於接受。

Now we haven't rolled any of these out. But I think, hopefully, in the next quarter or 2, we'll announce at least 1 and maybe 2 that we'll be working on. In terms of the risk appetite, the retail investor, it's too early to say with the market up year-to-date, our flows are still decent, but we haven't seen a big uptick or downtick. But I -- my guess would be, if the market stays robust, we will see risk appetite increase and you should expect flows to increase with the market going up. But really hard to predict the mindset.

現在我們還沒有推出任何這些。但我認為，希望在下一個或第二個季度，我們將宣布至少 1 個，也許是 2 個我們將致力於的工作。就風險偏好而言，散戶投資者現在說市場今年迄今上漲還為時過早，我們的流量仍然不錯，但我們沒有看到大幅上漲或下跌。但我——我的猜測是，如果市場保持強勁，我們將看到風險偏好增加，你應該預計隨著市場上漲，資金流動也會增加。但真的很難預測心態。

But I just want to go back to what I said earlier. We're unbelievably bullish about the opportunity. I know there's this focus on quarter-over-quarter, but we're thinking year-over-year. And I will tell you as we go out and we talk to those gatekeepers in particular and some of the largest advisers, they are all very focused on all. So I think we're in the right place. We're well situated, and as I said earlier, I would anticipate we continue to get more than our fair share in the space.

但我只想回到我之前所說的。我們難以置信地看好這個機會。我知道這個重點是季度環比，但我們考慮的是年復一年。當我們出去時，我會告訴你，我們特別與那些看門人和一些最大的顧問交談，他們都非常關注所有問題。所以我認為我們來對地方了。我們的位置很好，正如我之前所說，我預計我們將繼續獲得超過我們在該領域的公平份額。

And one thing I could add, it's far from a monolith, this idea of retail products or individual access points. There's a lot of difference in these products, even if by headline, they have the same names. Our products, which have been the Blue Owl brand, the Blue Owl place within the system, is all built around products that are about stability, predictability and very strong yields. Remember, in our credit products, we talked about the strength of the credit performance before. We've also been raising the distribution rates. I mean how many products, how many asset classes in 2022 where people call in investors and saying, I want to let you know the returns are going to be better than you thought.

我可以補充一件事，它遠非一個整體，這種零售產品或個人接入點的想法。這些產品有很多不同之處，即使從標題上看，它們的名稱相同。我們的產品一直是 Blue Owl 品牌，Blue Owl 在系統中的地位，都是圍繞著穩定性、可預測性和非常高的收益的產品構建的。請記住，在我們的信用產品中，我們之前談到了信用表現的強度。我們也一直在提高分配率。我的意思是在 2022 年有多少產品、多少資產類別，人們打電話給投資者說，我想讓你知道回報會比你想像的要好。

I mean that's not a common threat. And even when we talk about real estate, definitely not a monolith. Remember, our real estate strategy is very, very different from what else is in the market. Triple-net lease, long-dated commitments from extremely high credit quality counterparties, where you pick all of your expenses and costs and pass them through to the tenant. And you're not talking about trying to buy a building and re-lease it or hope it stays leased and deal with operating expenses and vacancies and therefore -- and hope for a better cap rate. None of that is part of our model.

我的意思是這不是一個常見的威脅。甚至當我們談論房地產時，也絕對不是一塊巨石。請記住，我們的房地產戰略與市場上的其他戰略非常非常不同。三重淨租賃，來自信用質量極高的交易對手的長期承諾，您可以在其中選擇所有費用和成本並將其轉嫁給租戶。你並不是在談論試圖購買一棟建築物並重新出租，或者希望它保持租賃狀態並處理運營費用和空缺，因此 - 並希望獲得更好的資本化率。這些都不是我們模型的一部分。

Our model is 15-, 20-year leases on critical assets to critical clients. And our product, for example, pays a 7% yield with tax advantaged attributes for many investors. So it's just totally different even though it lives under the word real estate. So even within these categories, there are real differences that I think play to our strength, and we'll continue to develop new products, as Doug said, that hopefully continue that streak of delivering something different to our partner managers.

我們的模式是將關鍵資產租給關鍵客戶，期限為 15 年、20 年。例如，我們的產品為許多投資者支付了 7% 的收益率和稅收優惠屬性。所以它完全不同，即使它生活在房地產這個詞之下。因此，即使在這些類別中，我認為也存在真正的差異可以發揮我們的優勢，正如道格所說，我們將繼續開發新產品，希望能夠繼續為我們的合作夥伴經理提供不同的產品。

The next question is from Mike Brown with KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Mike Brown。

I just wanted to ask on the FRE margins. You achieved the 60% margin target for 2022. And Alan, you gave the G&A guidance for '23. So it sounds like the margin can continue to see expansion into 2023. But I just wanted to check are there any puts and takes we need to consider here? And then is there a target that you have for 2023?

我只是想問一下 FRE 利潤率。您實現了 2022 年 60% 的利潤率目標。艾倫，您為 23 年提供了 G&A 指導。所以聽起來利潤率可以繼續擴大到 2023 年。但我只是想檢查一下我們是否需要在這裡考慮任何看跌期權和看跌期權？然後你有 2023 年的目標嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Mike. I appreciate the question. In 2022, what we saw was our 60% FRE margin. That margin is going to move around a little bit based on, in particular, placement costs, distribution costs. And so I talked about the mix shift. Doug touched on the mix shift as well. In 2023, I'm reaffirming the 60% FRE margin. That's what I think folks should look for and frankly expect of us in 2023. That can move up or down a little bit based on where we ultimately end up for placement costs.

當然。謝謝，邁克。我很欣賞這個問題。 2022 年，我們看到的是 60% 的 FRE 利潤率。該利潤率將根據安置成本、分銷成本而有所變動。所以我談到了混合轉變。道格也談到了混音班次。 2023 年，我重申 60% 的 FRE 利潤率。這就是我認為人們應該在 2023 年尋找並坦率地期望我們的東西。根據我們最終安置成本的最終結果，這可能會有所上升或下降。

If we continue to see the mix shift, we see a little more institutional than retail. Institutional takes a little longer to close. It's a little lower fee basis, but also has less placement costs. So if we continue to see that, we could see a little bit higher on the FRE margin. And on the flip side, if retail really comes through, maybe starting in 2Q, but in the back half of the year, in particular, we could see a little more in placement costs, a little lower in FRE margin, but that also sets us up to certainly meet, if not exceed the $50 billion of fee-paying AUM raise.

如果我們繼續看到這種組合轉變，我們會看到更多的是機構而不是零售。機構需要更長的時間才能關閉。它的收費基礎略低，但安置成本也較低。因此，如果我們繼續看到這一點，我們可能會看到 FRE 利潤率略高一些。另一方面，如果零售真的成功，可能從第二季度開始，但特別是在今年下半年，我們可能會看到安置成本增加一點，FRE 利潤率降低一點，但這也設定了如果不超過 500 億美元的付費 AUM 加薪，我們肯定會滿足。

So there's a little bit of a push and pull when you think about FRE margin and think about the mix of our fund raise and how much is from the wealth or retail channels and how much is from the institutional channel.

因此，當您考慮 FRE 保證金並考慮我們籌資的組合以及來自財富或零售渠道的資金以及來自機構渠道的資金時，會有一點推拉。

The next question is from Chris Kotowski with Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自 Chris Kotowski 和 Oppenheimer。

A question for Michael. And I guess, I just would love some -- a bit more color on the dynamics of the handoff of one fund from another. I mean those of us who are used to looking at the fund tables from a normal private equity fund, we watch it get to like 60% invested and then they will start raising the next one. And then when it's 80% or 90%, it swaps over.

邁克爾的問題。而且我想，我只是喜歡一些 - 關於一個基金從另一個基金移交的動態的更多顏色。我的意思是我們這些習慣於查看普通私募股權基金的基金表的人，我們看到它投資了 60%，然後他們將開始籌集下一個。然後當它達到 80% 或 90% 時，它就會交換過來。

But when I look at the fund tables in your most recent 10-Q, Funds IV and V -- excuse me, III and IV were only about 60% invested. And presumably, the rest of that money is spoken for, but not drawn. And Fund V is only about 11% invested. But you're already talking about it. So how should we exactly expect that -- how does the drawdowns in the dynamics of the handoff from one fund to the next work?

但是當我查看你最近的 10-Q 中的基金表時，基金 IV 和 V——對不起，III 和 IV 只投資了大約 60%。據推測，剩下的錢已經說完了，但沒有提取。而基金 V 僅投資了約 11%。但你已經在談論它了。那麼我們應該如何準確地預期——從一個基金到下一個基金的切換動態中的縮減是如何工作的呢？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Chris. The -- what you really should focus on is the date that we quote turn on the fund. And that's when economics start to be paid to the management company. And we will then be out in the market raising capital for that given fund. And that can span a reasonable amount of time, upwards of a year or even 2, but the fees are all then payable once the commitments come in. So I wouldn't focus as much on the amount of capital that's gone into each fund. We commit to deals of about 100% of each fund.

是的。謝謝你的問題，克里斯。您真正應該關注的是我們報價的基金啟動日期。那就是經濟開始支付給管理公司的時候。然後我們將在市場上為該特定基金籌集資金。這可能會持續一段合理的時間，一年甚至兩年以上，但一旦承諾出現，費用就會全部支付。所以我不會過多關注每個基金的資本數額。我們承諾每隻基金約 100% 的交易。

So it's not like that money isn't earmarked for investments. It might not all go in the ground on a rapid fashion. There might be delayed payments that are paid over time. So that metric doesn't really impact the Blue Owl P&L. What we all focus on at the management company level is how much we've raised in total commitments per fund. And we've got about $4 billion left in Fund V. That's about a good annual pace for our deployment, and our pipeline looks really good.

所以這並不是說錢沒有指定用於投資。它可能不會以快速的方式全部落地。隨著時間的推移可能會延遲付款。因此，該指標不會真正影響 Blue Owl P&L。在管理公司層面，我們都關注的是我們在每隻基金的總承諾中籌集了多少。我們在 Fund V 中還剩下大約 40 億美元。這對我們的部署來說是一個很好的年度步伐，而且我們的管道看起來非常好。

So it's going to mean that we're going to start talking to investors towards the middle to end of '23 about Fund VI. And the key question is when will we flip the switch and turn on fees for Fund VI, it's likely to be at some point in '24, depending on pacing of deployment for the rest of this year.

因此，這意味著我們將在 23 世紀中期到末開始與投資者討論基金 VI。關鍵問題是我們什麼時候會打開開關並打開 Fund VI 的費用，這可能會在 24 年的某個時候，具體取決於今年剩餘時間的部署節奏。

Okay. But -- and by the time it flips over and turns over, I mean, let's assume you were targeting 10% or 20% more for Fund VI than for Fund V, but presumably, the first close would be some fraction of that, right? But...

好的。但是——當它翻過來的時候，我的意思是，假設你為基金 VI 設定的目標比基金 V 多 10% 或 20%，但大概，第一次收盤只是其中的一小部分，對吧？但...

Correct. That's correct. We wouldn't -- it's unlikely that we will have a one and done close for a big fund like that. It's not how we typically do it.

正確的。這是正確的。我們不會——我們不太可能擁有這樣的大型基金並完成交易。這不是我們通常的做法。

The next question is from Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Patrick Davitt。

Just a follow-up on the guidance this year. I guess, firstly, you mentioned the lighter deployment rate this year. What are you kind of assuming year-over-year in terms of deployment in that guide? And are you anticipating any inorganic growth in that guide?

只是今年指導的後續行動。我想，首先，您提到了今年較輕的部署率。就該指南中的部署而言，您對年復一年的假設是什麼？您是否預計該指南中會出現任何無機增長？

Sure. Thanks, Patrick. Inorganic, I'll leave that to one of my partners to talk about. In terms of the fund raise, I think what we're seeing is a little -- or, what we're expecting, I should say, Patrick, is a little lighter on the retail side and a little heavier on the institutional side. That balances out to raise the other half of the $25 billion in 2023.

當然。謝謝，帕特里克。無機物，我會把它留給我的一位合作夥伴來討論。就籌資而言，我認為我們所看到的是——或者，我們所期望的，我應該說，帕特里克，在零售方面稍微輕一點，在機構方面稍微重一點。這平衡了 2023 年籌集 250 億美元的另一半。

Sorry, deployment, yes, that's obviously a part of the equation as well in credit?

抱歉，部署，是的，這顯然是等式的一部分，也是信用的一部分嗎？

Yes. With regard to deployment and credit, in particular, it's slower right now. As I said, we saw that in the fourth quarter. We see it now. We're not suggesting we have a crystal ball. But again, remember, with our permanent capital pools and with the variances, the deals we see, the investments we see, we really like. So our shortage, if anything, today, is really capital certainly not opportunity -- well, put another way, it's a shortage of capital against those opportunities.

是的。特別是在部署和信用方面，現在速度較慢。正如我所說，我們在第四季度看到了這一點。我們現在看到了。我們並不是說我們有水晶球。但請再次記住，憑藉我們的永久資本池和差異，我們看到的交易，我們看到的投資，我們真的很喜歡。所以我們今天的短缺，如果有的話，真的是資本肯定不是機會——好吧，換句話說，這是對這些機會的資本短缺。

So the exact state of the M&A market in the second half, I don't really know. In terms of impact on P&L, frankly, that really only shows up in the sort of fees, in the arrangement fees. So again, we don't predict that quarter-to-quarter. We're assuming a more tepid pace this year than we've seen in prior more robust years, and that's what our -- we're built on.

所以下半年併購市場的確切狀況，我真的不知道。坦率地說，就對 P&L 的影響而言，這實際上只體現在費用種類、安排費用中。同樣，我們不會按季度預測。我們假設今年的步伐比之前更強勁的年份更為溫和，這就是我們的基礎。

With regard to inorganic, if you want a quick comment on that, look, we continue to be interested, but extremely selective in the idea of adding adjacent capabilities. When we add capabilities, there's things that are very much front of mind for us, which is, is it really a complementary product that suits our DNA and allows us to sort of deliver on the strengths of Blue Owl and across the platform? Is it a place where we can really deliver a market-leading role and performance?

關於無機，如果你想快速評論一下，看，我們繼續感興趣，但在添加相鄰功能的想法上非常有選擇性。當我們添加功能時，我們首先想到的是，它是否真的是適合我們 DNA 的互補產品，並允許我們在某種程度上發揮 Blue Owl 和整個平台的優勢？這是一個我們可以真正發揮市場領先作用和業績的地方嗎？

Clearly, in the spaces we're in, in GP Solutions, in triple net lease, we're the clear market leader in Direct Lending, one of a couple. And that's important to us that we'd be in products where we can really lead. We are not all things to all people. We want to be a handful of really good things to a wonderful side of investors. And then culture fit, critically important, take all that together, Oak Street is certainly a study in the kind of opportunity that we look for. We get a lot of inbounds, as you would expect, and we will continue to look. But that one, we can never predict when that will happen or won't happen, but we certainly continue to be active in the inorganic side as well.

顯然，在我們所處的領域，在 GP Solutions 中，在三重淨租賃中，我們是直接貸款領域的明顯市場領導者，一對夫婦中的一個。這對我們來說很重要，我們將在我們可以真正領先的產品中。我們對所有人來說都不是萬能的。我們希望將少數真正好的東西帶給投資者美好的一面。然後文化契合，至關重要，將所有這些結合在一起，橡樹街無疑是對我們尋找的那種機會的研究。正如您所料，我們有很多入站，我們將繼續尋找。但是那個，我們永遠無法預測什麼時候會發生或不會發生，但我們當然也會繼續活躍在無機方面。

That will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'll turn it over to Doug Ostrover for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把它交給 Doug Ostrover 做任何結束語。

Well, thanks, everybody. We appreciate all the questions. We're clearly proud of our results for '22. You've heard us in the past talk describe our business using the words, I think Marc touched on this, stability, profitability and growth. And just to highlight the growth again, revenue, FRE, DE, AUM, all up well over 40% year-over-year. And I think you've got a sense on this call, we're equally as excited about 2023. And we're reaffirming that $1 billion of DE. So appreciate all the support, and look forward to talking to everyone soon. Thank you.

嗯，謝謝大家。我們感謝所有問題。我們顯然為 22 年的成績感到自豪。你在過去的談話中聽過我們用這些詞來描述我們的業務，我認為馬克談到了這一點，即穩定性、盈利能力和增長。為了再次強調增長，收入、FRE、DE、AUM 都同比增長了 40% 以上。我認為您對這次電話會議有所了解，我們對 2023 年同樣感到興奮。我們重申了 10 億美元的 DE。感謝所有的支持，並期待盡快與大家交談。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。