O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the O'Reilly Automotive Inc fourth-quarter and full year 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加 O'Reilly Automotive Inc 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

My name is Matthew and I'll be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

我叫馬修，我將擔任您今天的電話接線生。（操作員指令）

I'll now turn the call over to Jeremy Fletcher. Mr. Fletcher, you may begin.

現在我將電話轉給傑里米·弗萊徹。弗萊徹先生，您可以開始啦。

Thank you, Matt. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

謝謝你，馬特。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。

During today's conference call, we will discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results and our outlook for 2025. After our prepared comments, we will host a question-and-answer period.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論 2024 年第四季和全年業績以及對 2025 年的展望。在我們準備好的評論之後，我們將安排問答環節。

Before we begin this morning, I would like to remind everyone that our comments today contain forward-looking statements, and we intend to be covered by, and we claim the protection under the Safe Harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as estimate, may, could, will, believe, expect, would, consider, should, anticipate, project, plan, intend, or similar words. The company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements due to several important factors described in the company's latest annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 and other recent SEC filings. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call.

在我們今天早上開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們今天的評論包含前瞻性陳述，我們打算受到保護，並且我們要求受到 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中關於前瞻性陳述的安全港條款的保護。您可以透過前瞻性詞語（例如估計、可能、可以、將、相信、預期、會、考慮、應該、預期、預計、計劃、打算或類似詞語）來識別這些陳述。由於本公司截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的最新 10-K 表年度報告和其他近期 SEC 文件中所述的幾個重要因素，本公司的實際結果可能與任何前瞻性陳述有重大差異。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

At this time, I would like to introduce Brad Beckham.

現在，我想介紹一下布拉德貝克漢。

Thanks, Jeremy.

謝謝，傑里米。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the O'Reilly Auto Parts fourth quarter conference call.

大家早安，歡迎參加 O'Reilly Auto Parts 第四季電話會議。

Participating on the call with me this morning are Brent Kirby, our President; and Jeremy Fletcher, our Chief Financial Officer. Greg Henslee, our Executive Chairman; and David O'Reilly, our Executive Vice Chairman, are also present on the call.

今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的總裁 Brent Kirby；以及我們的財務長傑里米·弗萊徹 (Jeremy Fletcher)。Greg Henslee，我們的執行主席；我們的執行副董事長 David O'Reilly 也出席了電話會議。

To begin today's call, I'd like to recognize the hard work and commitment demonstrated by our team of over 93,000 professional Parts People throughout 2024. It is their commitment to our company and our customers that enabled us to deliver a solid year highlighted by an increase in comparable store sales of 2.9% and an increase in diluted earnings per share of 5.7%.

在今天的電話會議開始之前，我想對我們團隊在 2024 年全年超過 93,000 名專業零件人員的辛勤工作和承諾表示感謝。正是他們對我們公司和客戶的承諾，使我們能夠實現豐碩的業績，同店銷售額增長 2.9%，每股攤薄收益增長 5.7%。

2024 was a challenging year across the automotive aftermarket, and our financial results reflected the headwinds our industry faced, finishing below the expectations we set for our business entering 2024. Our team has established a long track record of robust growth and profitability, so we are never fully satisfied when we fall short of that high bar.

2024 年是整個汽車售後市場充滿挑戰的一年，我們的財務表現反映了產業面臨的阻力，低於我們對 2024 年業務設定的預期。我們的團隊已經建立了長期強勁成長和盈利的記錄，因此當我們達不到這個高標準時，我們永遠不會完全滿足。

However, we are pleased with our team's ability to navigate the challenging environment and still deliver increases in comparable store sales and earnings per share, representing our 32nd consecutive year of growth in these metrics since becoming a public company. We are very pleased to have delivered record earnings despite a $0.46 headwind to EPS resulting from a fourth quarter charge of $35 million to adjust our auto claims self-insurance liabilities, which Brent will discuss in more detail during his prepared comments.

然而，我們很高興看到我們的團隊能夠在充滿挑戰的環境中前行，並實現同店銷售額和每股收益的增長，這是我們自上市公司以來這些指標連續第32年實現增長。由於第四季度花費 3500 萬美元調整汽車索賠自保負債，導致每股收益下降 0.46 美元，但我們仍然非常高興地實現了創紀錄的盈利，布倫特將在其準備好的評論中對此進行更詳細的討論。

This charge was a headwind of over 1% to the full year EPS growth we reported for 2024. The charge was even more impactful to the fourth quarter, representing a headwind of approximately 5% to the 2.6% EPS growth we reported for the quarter.

這筆費用對我們報告的 2024 年全年每股收益成長造成了超過 1% 的阻力。這項費用對第四季度的影響更大，對我們本季報告的 2.6% 的每股盈餘成長造成了約 5% 的阻力。

Now, I'd like to take a few minutes to provide some color on our fourth quarter sales results. Our comparable store sales for the fourth quarter grew 4.4%, which was at the high end of our expectations. Our sales growth was driven by solid results in both professional and DIY. The relative performance between the two sides of our business was more balanced in the fourth quarter than we experienced in the first nine months of 2024.

現在，我想花幾分鐘介紹一下我們第四季的銷售業績。我們第四季的同店銷售額成長了 4.4%，達到我們預期的高點。我們的銷售成長得益於專業和 DIY 領域的穩健業績。與 2024 年前九個月相比，我們業務兩端的相對錶現在第四季度更加均衡。

Our professional business again delivered mid single digit comp growth, while DIY grew just over 3%, the best quarterly result in 2024. To some degree, our fourth quarter results were consistent with the pressure demand environment we have experienced throughout 2024. The headwinds we have seen from broad-based pressure on consumers persisted in the fourth quarter and were reflected in continued softness in discretionary categories such as tools, accessories, and performance parts.

我們的專業業務再次實現了中等個位數的年成長，而 DIY 業務的成長略高於 3%，這是 2024 年最好的季度業績。從某種程度上來說，我們第四季的業績與我們在整個 2024 年經歷的壓力需求環境一致。我們看到，消費者面臨的廣泛壓力在第四季度持續存在，並反映在工具、配件和性能部件等非必需品類別的持續疲軟上。

However, we saw continued strong demand in maintenance categories in the fourth quarter. We also benefited from strong performance in winter weather related categories as we calendared easier comparisons to the mild start of winter in the fourth quarter of 2023.

然而，我們看到第四季度維護類別的需求持續強勁。我們也受益於冬季天氣相關類別的強勁表現，因為我們可以更輕鬆地將其與 2023 年第四季溫和的冬季開始進行比較。

Harsh inclement winter weather creates a tailwind to our business, and the timing of when we have experienced this type of weather has created some variability over the last few years. As a reminder, last year, we really did not see severe winter weather in the fourth quarter of 2023, with more of the harsh conditions that support our business arriving in January of 2024.

嚴酷的冬季天氣為我們的業務帶來了順風，而在過去幾年中，我們經歷這種天氣的時間造成了一些變化。提醒一下，去年，我們確實沒有在 2023 年第四季看到嚴酷的冬季天氣，而支持我們業務的更多惡劣條件將在 2024 年 1 月到來。

So far, this season has been more typical as we have seen the impact of winter weather spread out a little more evenly. As a result, from a cadence perspective, our business in the quarter was steady month to month when viewed relative to the normal sales volume trends in our business. Our comps in October benefited from 2024 having one less Sunday than the prior year and our December comps reflected the easier weather comparisons.

到目前為止，這個季節的情況比較典型，因為我們看到冬季天氣的影響分佈得更均勻。因此，從節奏的角度來看，與我們業務的正常銷售量趨勢相比，本季我們的業務月度表現穩定。我們 10 月的比較受益於 2024 年比前一年少了一個星期天，而我們 12 月的比較則反映了更容易的天氣比較。

Again, these monthly variances were driven by prior year comparisons and not by variability in our business within the fourth quarter of the current year.

再次強調，這些月度差異是由與去年同期的比較造成的，而不是由今年第四季業務的變化造成的。

Next, I'll discuss average ticket and traffic dynamics underpinning our sales growth for the fourth quarter. Ticket count growth was the larger contributor to our comparable store sales increase in the quarter, again led by the professional side of our business, in line with the consistent strength we saw throughout 2024. DIY ticket counts also grew in the fourth quarter, representing our best quarterly performance for the year, as this side benefited from solid performance and maintenance categories in the favorable winter weather comparisons.

接下來，我將討論支撐我們第四季銷售成長的平均票價和流量動態。票務數量成長是本季我們同店銷售額成長的最大貢獻者，這再次由我們業務的專業方面所主導，與我們在整個 2024 年看到的持續強勁表現一致。DIY 門票數量在第四季度也有所增長，這是我們今年最好的季度表現，因為這部分受益於有利的冬季天氣條件下穩健的性能和維護類別。

On a two year stack basis, which smooths out the effect of the timing of impact of weather, fourth quarter DIY traffic was down slightly, in line with full year 2024 trends. We believe our customer transaction count results lead the industry on both sides of our business, reflecting continued market share gains in a tough environment. Average ticket values were also a positive contributor to our comp growth in the fourth quarter and included a benefit from same-SKU inflation of just under 1%.

以兩年疊加計算，可以平滑天氣影響時間的影響，第四季度 DIY 流量略有下降，與 2024 年全年趨勢一致。我們相信，我們的客戶交易數量結果在業務的兩個方面均處於行業領先地位，反映出在艱難的環境下市場份額持續成長。平均票價也對我們第四季的銷售成長做出了積極的貢獻，其中包括同庫存單位通膨略低於 1% 的好處。

For the full year of 2024, our 2.9% comparable store sales increase was at the high end of the revised guidance range we provided on last quarter's call, but just below the 3% to 5% guidance we set at the beginning of the year. The sales growth achieved in 2024 was on top of the robust increases our team delivered in 2023 and 2022 of 7.9% and 6.4% respectively.

就 2024 年全年而言，我們的同店銷售額增幅為 2.9%，處於上個季度電話會議上提供的修訂指引範圍的高位，但略低於我們在年初設定的 3% 至 5% 的指引。2024 年實現的銷售成長是在我們團隊於 2023 年和 2022 年分別實現 7.9% 和 6.4% 的強勁成長的基礎上實現的。

Against the tougher industry backdrop, our team has worked diligently to double down on our efforts to provide the best customer service in our industry, allowing us to both sustain the business we have earned from our customers over the last few years and further grow our market share.

在更嚴峻的產業情勢下，我們的團隊勤奮努力，加倍努力地提供業界最好的客戶服務，使我們既能維持過去幾年從客戶那裡獲得的業務，又能進一步擴大我們的市場份額。

Next, I want to transition to a discussion of our guidance for 2025, starting with our sales outlook. As we disclosed in our earnings release yesterday, we're establishing our annual comparable store sales guidance for 2025 at a range of 2% to 4%, and we want to provide a snapshot of how we view both industry and macroeconomic conditions in our prospects for the coming year.

接下來，我想討論我們對 2025 年的指導，從銷售前景開始。正如我們昨天在收益報告中所揭露的那樣，我們將 2025 年的年度同店銷售額預期設定在 2% 至 4% 之間，並且我們希望在對來年的展望中提供我們如何看待行業和宏觀經濟狀況的快照。

As we've discussed over the last few quarters, the current environment in the automotive aftermarket has been challenging but is not unlike other cycles we've seen over our decades of experience in our industry. We operate in an extremely stable sector of retail, and our customers are very resilient in periods of economic uncertainty.

正如我們在過去幾季所討論的那樣，汽車售後市場的當前環境充滿挑戰，但與我們在行業數十年的經驗中所經歷的其他週期並沒有什麼不同。我們經營的零售業非常穩定，我們的客戶在經濟不確定時期具有很強的適應力。

The dynamics of the car park also contribute to stability in our industry. Vehicles are engineered and manufactured to be reliably driven at higher mileages. This reliability, coupled with the substantial cost of replacement creates a compelling value proposition for customers to invest in the repair and maintenance necessary to keep their existing vehicles on the road.

停車場的動態也有助於我們產業的穩定。車輛的設計和製造都考慮到了能夠在更長的里程內可靠行駛。這種可靠性，加上可觀的更換成本，為客戶創造了一個極具吸引力的價值主張，促使他們投資必要的維修和保養，以確保現有車輛能夠繼續上路。

The result has been a growing US car park characterized by an increased average vehicle age which combined with steady growth in total miles driven supports durable demand in the automotive aftermarket. Against this stable backdrop, our industry has encountered years similar to 2024, where industrywide growth is hard to come by and positive sales momentum is only available through market share gains and industry consolidation.

結果就是美國停車場規模不斷擴大，特點是車輛平均使用年限增加，加上總行駛里程穩定成長，支撐了汽車售後市場的持久需求。在這種穩定的背景下，我們的行業遇到了與 2024 年類似的情況，全行業增長難以實現，只有透過市場份額增長和行業整合才能獲得積極的銷售勢頭。

We remain confident these periods are short-lived and that our industry consistently rebounds due to the core strength of the demand drivers underpinned by the vehicle population. As such, we are optimistic in the long-term fundamentals of our industry and the prospects for conditions to improve as we move through 2025.

我們堅信，這些時期只是短暫的，而且由於汽車保有量支撐的需求驅動因素的核心力量，我們的產業將持續反彈。因此，我們對產業長期基本面以及 2025 年情勢改善的前景感到樂觀。

However, we remain cautious regarding the potential for worsening economic conditions or the possibility of short-term economic shocks, particularly pressure to the consumer from sustained high price levels, rapidly increasing interest rates or energy costs, spikes in gas prices, or other adverse circumstances. These considerations are built into our 2025 outlook and full year guidance, but are particularly relevant as we enter the year on a similar trajectory to our 2024 exit and face challenging comparisons in the first quarter on a multi-year basis.

然而，我們對於經濟狀況惡化的可能性或短期經濟衝擊的可能性仍持謹慎態度，尤其是持續的高價格水平、快速上漲的利率或能源成本、油價飆升或其他不利情況給消費者帶來的壓力。這些考慮已融入我們的 2025 年展望和全年指引中，但尤其重要，因為我們今年的步入軌跡與 2024 年結束時的步入軌跡相似，並且在第一季面臨著多年期比較的挑戰。

Our focus as a company is to control our own destiny and drive our industry-leading results in any market condition, and our performance this year will ultimately depend on our effectiveness in executing our business model and providing exceptional customer service. To that end, we expect both our DIY and professional businesses to be positive contributors to our comparable store sales growth in 2025.

作為一家公司，我們的重點是掌握自己的命運並在任何市場條件下推動我們行業領先的業績，而我們今年的業績最終將取決於我們執行業務模式和提供卓越客戶服務的有效性。為此，我們預計我們的 DIY 和專業業務都將對我們 2025 年的同店銷售額成長做出積極貢獻。

We anticipate stronger growth in professional from increased ticket counts driven by an expected higher industry growth rate on this side of the business and by our ability to continue to capture market share. We also expect to be a DIY share gainer, but expect these gains to be offset by the long-term industry dynamic of pressure to ticket counts resulting from increased parts quality and corresponding extended service and repair intervals.

我們預計，由於預計該業務的行業成長率將更高，且我們有能力繼續佔領市場份額，專業票務數量將增加，從而帶來更強勁的成長。我們也預期 DIY 份額將會成長，但預計這些成長將被業界長期動態所抵消，即由於零件品質提高以及相應的服務和維修間隔延長而導致的票數壓力。

As a result, we anticipate DIY traffic will be down slightly in 2025, but that a higher ticket value associated with the increasing complexity and quality of parts will drive comparable store sales growth in DIY similar to our experience in 2024. Our projected outlook for average ticket growth in 2025 assumes a benefit from same-SKU inflation of approximately 1%.

因此，我們預計 2025 年 DIY 流量將略有下降，但與零件複雜性和品質不斷提高相關的更高票價將推動 DIY 同店銷售額增長，類似於我們在 2024 年的經歷。我們對 2025 年平均票價成長的預測前景是假設同品類通膨將帶來約 1% 的收益。

Consistent with our historical practice, we are assuming only modest increases in price levels from this point forward in 2025. In a few moments, Brent will discuss how we view the potential for increased tariffs on our supply chain and margin outlook. For now, I will just highlight that our sales assumptions exclude any changes in tariffs, as it remains too early to project the impact to our business.

與我們的歷史慣例一致，我們假設從 2025 年起價格水準只會小幅上漲。稍後，布倫特將討論我們如何看待關稅上調對我們的供應鏈和利潤前景的影響。現在，我只想強調，我們的銷售假設不包括關稅的任何變化，因為現在預測對我們業務的影響還為時過早。

Before I move on from our sales guidance, I would like to highlight our expectations for the quarterly cadence of our sales growth in 2025. We expect our quarterly comparable store sales growth to be relatively even throughout 2025, with relatively minor differences driven by more challenging headwinds in the first and fourth quarter and easier compares in the second and third quarters.

在介紹我們的銷售預期之前，我想先強調一下我們對 2025 年季度銷售成長節奏的預期。我們預計，2025 年全年季度同店銷售額成長將相對均勻，第一季和第四季面臨的阻力較大，而第二季和第三季的比較則相對容易，因此差異相對較小。

Thus far, in the first quarter, our sales volumes are tracking in line with our expectations against the tough comparison to favorable winter weather in January of last year.

到目前為止，在第一季度，與去年一月有利的冬季天氣相比，我們的銷售量符合我們的預期。

Now I'd like to move on to discuss our capital investment and expansion plans. Our capital expenditures for 2024 were just over $1 billion, in line with 2023 and marginally above our full year guidance range, driven by the timing of spend on distribution infrastructure projects. For 2025, we are setting our capital expenditure guidance at $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion. The increased level of projected investment is centered around our plans to accelerate our store and distribution expansion.

現在我想繼續討論我們的資本投資和擴張計劃。我們 2024 年的資本支出略高於 10 億美元，與 2023 年持平，略高於我們的全年指導範圍，這受到分銷基礎設施項目支出時機的推動。對於 2025 年，我們將資本支出指導價定為 12 億美元至 13 億美元。預計投資水準的增加主要圍繞著我們加速門市和分銷擴張的計劃。

Starting with our store network. We disclosed on last quarter's call our target of 200 to 210 net new store openings for 2025. The increase in new store openings reflects our continued strong new store performance and our confidence in our ability to successfully balance our organic growth with greenfield growth across our North American footprint.

從我們的商店網路開始。我們在上個季度的電話會議上揭露了 2025 年開設新店的目標：淨增加 200 至 210 家。新店開幕數量的增加反映了我們持續強勁的新店業績，以及我們對成功平衡整個北美業務的有機成長與綠地成長的能力的信心。

For domestic US store growth, our projected new store openings are spread across over 35 different states, balanced between expansion in newer markets in the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and Puerto Rico, as well as backfill in existing markets coast to coast.

對於美國國內門市成長，我們預計新開門店將分佈在 35 個不同的州，在東北部、大西洋中部和波多黎各的新市場擴張以及從東海岸到西海岸的現有市場的補充之間取得平衡。

Our plans also include continued growth in Mexico. In 2024, we opened 25 new stores in Mexico, bringing our store count to 87 stores and expect to open a similar number of stores in 2025. We are still in the early innings of our expansion in Mexico, but we are gaining momentum and capitalizing on the opportunity to spread new store growth over several market areas while at the same time also beginning to increase density in markets outside of our core historical base in Guadalajara.

我們的計劃還包括在墨西哥的持續發展。2024 年，我們在墨西哥開設 25 家新店，使我們的店數達到 87 家，預計 2025 年將開設相同數量的店。我們在墨西哥的擴張仍處於初期，但我們正在獲得發展勢頭，並抓住機會將新店增長擴展到多個市場區域，同時也開始增加我們在瓜達拉哈拉核心歷史基地以外市場的密度。

We are also building the development muscle necessary for greenfield new store growth in Canada. Our 2025 target does not yet include a substantial number of new stores in Canada, but the coming year will be an important one to build out the organic capabilities and advance the development of the new store pipeline that will fuel our growth in the coming years.

我們也正在建立加拿大綠地新店成長所需的發展實力。我們的 2025 年目標尚未包括在加拿大開設大量新店，但未來的一年將是建立有機能力和推動新店通路的重要一年，這將推動我們未來幾年的成長。

Beyond the increase in our new store targets, we are also expected to increase our growth capital spend as a result of two additional factors, a continuing shift to owned new store growth versus leased stores and incremental investments in our hub store network. Our ability to successfully open stores that increasingly generate higher sales volumes and stronger cash flows is driving enhanced returns on capital invested in our new store growth.

除了增加新店目標之外，我們還預計會增加成長資本支出，這是由於另外兩個因素造成的，即繼續向自有新店增長而非租賃店轉變，以及對我們的中心店網絡的增量投資。我們成功開設商店的能力不斷提高，銷售量不斷增加，現金流不斷增強，從而推動了我們在新店成長上投資資本的回報率不斷提高。

In light of these strong returns, we are planning 2025 new store openings to include a projected 60%, 40% mix of owned versus leased stores. We are also pleased with the returns we have generated through our ongoing expansion and enhancement of our hub store network. Our ability to support our stores with quick access to broad localized SKU availability is an important factor in our ability to effectively compete and take market share on both sides of the business.

鑑於這些強勁的回報，我們計劃在 2025 年開設新店，其中自有店和租賃店的比例預計分別為 60% 和 40%。我們也對透過不斷擴展和加強我們的樞紐店網絡所獲得的回報感到滿意。我們能否支援我們的商店快速獲得廣泛的本地化 SKU 可用性，是我們有效競爭並在業務的兩側佔據市場份額的重要因素。

We have executed our hub strategy for decades. One of the strengths of this strategy is our flexibility to adjust the number, location, and size of our hub stores to ensure our network provides our customers with the best access to inventory in each of our markets. As such, our capital investment projections for 2025 include planned increases in the number and size of our hub stores.

我們執行樞紐策略已經幾十年了。這項策略的優點之一是，我們可以靈活地調整樞紐店的數量、位置和規模，以確保我們的網路為每個市場的客戶提供最佳的庫存管道。因此，我們對 2025 年的資本投資預測包括計劃增加我們的中心商店的數量和規模。

The second major driver of our 2025 CapEx outlook is our continued investment in distribution capabilities. The competitive advantage we maintain in an industry-leading inventory availability is fueled by our substantial investment in our distribution network, and Brent will provide an update on our current distribution projects and expectations for 2025 during his supply chain update.

我們 2025 年資本支出展望的第二個主要驅動因素是我們對分銷能力的持續投資。我們在業界領先的庫存可用性方面保持的競爭優勢得益於我們對分銷網絡的大量投資，布倫特將在他的供應鏈更新期間提供有關我們當前分銷項目和 2025 年預期的最新信息。

Our store, hub and distribution expansion represents the lion's share of the planned growth in CapEx for 2025, but also included in our outlook are continued ongoing investments to maintain and refresh the image and appearance of our store fleet, as well as continued strategic investments in technology.

我們的商店、樞紐和分銷擴張佔 2025 年資本支出計劃增長的最大份額，但在我們的展望中還包括持續進行投資以維護和更新我們商店的形象和外觀，以及持續對技術的戰略投資。

As I wrap up my prepared comments, I would like to once again thank team O'Reilly for your unwavering commitment to providing excellent customer service every day in each of our over 6,300 stores.

在結束我準備好的評論時，我想再次感謝 O'Reilly 團隊堅定不移地致力於每天在我們超過 6,300 家商店提供優質的客戶服務。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Brent.

現在，我將電話轉給布倫特。

Thanks, Brad.

謝謝，布拉德。

I would also like to begin my comments this morning by congratulating team O'Reilly on a solid finish to 2024. Today, I will further discuss our fourth quarter and full year operational results and provide some additional color on our outlook for 2025.

今天上午，我還想先祝賀奧萊利團隊在 2024 年取得了圓滿成功。今天，我將進一步討論我們的第四季和全年營運業績，並對我們對 2025 年的展望提供一些額外的說明。

Starting with gross margin. Our fourth quarter gross margin of 51.3% was in line with the fourth quarter 2023, which was within our range of expectations. Our full year gross margin came in at 51.2%, which was down 6 basis points from the prior year and in line with our expectations. The year over year comparison includes the headwind from the inclusion of our acquired Canadian business which finished the year at the expected 30 basis point impact.

從毛利率開始。我們第四季的毛利率為 51.3%，與 2023 年第四季持平，在我們的預期範圍內。我們的全年毛利率為51.2％，比上年下降6個基點，符合我們的預期。與去年同期相比，我們收購的加拿大業務帶來了不利影響，該業務在年底的影響預計為 30 個基點。

Our 2024 gross margin was also impacted by a mixed headwind of approximately 11 basis points from the outsized strong performance in our professional business. These pressures were offset by incremental improvements in acquisition cost achieved through the efforts of our supply chain and operations teams with outstanding support from our supplier partners.

由於專業業務表現強勁，我們的 2024 年毛利率也受到了約 11 個基點的混合不利因素的影響。透過我們的供應鏈和營運團隊的努力以及供應商合作夥伴的出色支持，採購成本逐漸得到改善，從而抵消了這些壓力。

We have been pleased with our consistent, solid gross margin results and expect to see further expansion of gross margin in 2025 as we lap our 2024 gains and anticipate additional opportunities to reduce acquisition cost. We also expect to continue to incrementally drive distribution efficiencies. Based on these expectations, we have established a guidance range for 2025 of 51.2% to 51.7%, representing an increase of 25 basis points over 2024 at the midpoint.

我們對持續穩健的毛利率結果感到滿意，並預計隨著我們實現 2024 年的成長並預計有更多機會降低收購成本，2025 年的毛利率將進一步擴大。我們也希望持續逐步提高分銷效率。基於這些預期，我們設定了 2025 年的指導範圍，為 51.2% 至 51.7%，比 2024 年的中點增加 25 個基點。

We remain very bullish on our prospect to generate gross profit dollar growth driven by the premium value proposition that our supply chain, store operations, and sales teams create for our customers. Our outlook for gross profit assumes a stable inflation environment and the expectation that our industry will remain rational from a pricing perspective. As Brad previously mentioned, we have not incorporated any impact from changes to tariffs.

我們仍然非常看好我們的前景，希望能夠透過我們的供應鏈、商店營運和銷售團隊為我們的客戶創造的優質價值主張，實現毛利成長。我們對毛利的展望假設通膨環境穩定，且預期我們的產業從定價角度將保持理性。正如布拉德之前提到的，我們沒有考慮關稅變化的任何影響。

At this time, it is difficult to assess the exact timing, duration, and magnitude of any tariff provisions that will occur and the way that suppliers, competitors, and customers will respond to any changes. While it isn't prudent to adjust our forecast to quantify the different possible paths these developments could take, we remain very confident in our ability to manage effectively in a changing environment.

目前，很難評估任何關稅條款的具體時間、持續時間和幅度，以及供應商、競爭對手和客戶將如何應對任何變化。雖然調整我們的預測來量化這些發展可能採取的不同路徑並不明智，但我們仍然對我們在不斷變化的環境中有效管理的能力充滿信心。

Our experience during the last round of significant tariffs in 2018 and 2019 is a clear demonstration that our industry behaves rationally in response to increased acquisition cost. This rationality was further demonstrated during the period of heightened inflation from 2021 to 2023. We fully expect this dynamic to continue and anticipate our industry will have both the ability and the resolve to appropriately pass through any increased tariff cost.

我們在 2018 年和 2019 年上一輪重大關稅期間的經驗清楚地表明，我們的產業在應對增加的收購成本時採取了理性的行為。這種合理性在2021年至2023年通膨加劇期間得到了進一步體現。我們完全預期這種動態將會持續下去，並預期我們的產業將有能力和決心適當地轉嫁任何增加的關稅成本。

From a cadence perspective, our quarterly gross margin remained relatively consistent throughout 2024, and we expect a similar quarterly cadence as we move through 2025.

從節奏角度來看，我們的季度毛利率在 2024 年全年保持相對穩定，並且我們預計 2025 年的季度節奏也將保持相似。

Next, I want to provide an update on some supply chain and distribution initiatives. Our unwavering commitment to providing the best possible parts availability in the industry is a critical component of our business model and a primary contributor to our long-term success.

接下來，我想介紹一些供應鏈和分銷舉措的最新情況。我們堅定不移地致力於提供業界最好的零件供應，這是我們商業模式的關鍵組成部分，也是我們長期成功的主要貢獻者。

This commitment is reflected in the continued investments we make in our supply chain, distribution network, hub store network, and inventory position. And 2024 was a very successful year for team O'Reilly in these areas. On the distribution side, we successfully completed the relocation of our distribution centers in Springfield, Missouri and Atlanta, Georgia to larger, more efficient facilities.

這項承諾體現在我們對供應鏈、分銷網絡、樞紐店網絡和庫存狀況的持續投資。2024 年對 O'Reilly 團隊來說，是這些領域非常成功的一年。在分銷方面，我們成功完成了位於密蘇裡州斯普林菲爾德和喬治亞州亞特蘭大的分銷中心的搬遷，將其部署到更大、更有效率的設施中。

Since our last earnings call, the new Atlanta distribution center began servicing stores in the fourth quarter, and we are extremely pleased with the seamless opening of this new facility. This 690,000 square foot facility will have the ability to service 350 stores with direct import processing capabilities and will further fuel our growth in a core market area for our company.

自從我們上次財報電話會議以來，新的亞特蘭大配送中心於第四季度開始為商店提供服務，我們對該新設施的順利開業感到非常滿意。該工廠佔地 69 萬平方英尺，能夠為 350 家商店提供直接進口加工服務，並將進一步推動我們公司在核心市場領域的成長。

We're also nearing the completion of our new greenfield distribution center in Stafford, Virginia, and expect to start providing exceptional service to stores in the mid-Atlantic region out of this facility in the back half of 2025.

我們位於維吉尼亞州斯塔福德的全新綠地配送中心也即將完工，預計將於 2025 年下半年開始透過該設施為大西洋中部地區的商店提供卓越的服務。

As we've discussed earlier, the addition of this DC opens up a new section of the map, and we are excited to lean into growth in these new markets. We're also making great progress on the expansion of our existing distribution center in Lakeland, Florida, and are eager to improve the efficiency of this building and unlock additional capacity when this project is complete at the end of 2025.

正如我們之前所討論的，添加這個 DC 會開闢地圖上的一個新部分，我們很高興能夠在這些新市場中實現成長。我們位於佛羅裡達州萊克蘭的現有配送中心的擴建也取得了重大進展，並渴望在 2025 年底項目完工時提高該建築的效率並釋放額外的產能。

Finally, our capital investment outlook for 2025 includes dollars allocated to future expansion and development of our distribution infrastructure. We do not currently have specific details on the next slate of projects, but we continue to proactively align our distribution strategy to the store growth opportunities that Brad outlined earlier.

最後，我們對 2025 年的資本投資展望包括分配給未來分銷基礎設施擴張和發展的資金。我們目前還沒有下一批項目的具體細節，但我們將繼續積極調整我們的分銷策略以適應布拉德先前概述的門市成長機會。

In line with physical expansion of our distribution and hub networks, we are targeting inventory investments in 2025 as another key component of planned enhancement to our industry leading parts availability. Our inventory per store at the end of 2024 was $799,000 which was up 5.5% from the end of last year, driven by our continued opportunistic investment to support our sales momentum.

隨著我們分銷和樞紐網路的實體擴張，我們計劃在 2025 年進行庫存投資，這是計劃提升我們行業領先零件可用性的另一個關鍵組成部分。2024 年底，我們每家商店的庫存為 799,000 美元，比去年年底增長 5.5%，這得益於我們持續的機會性投資以支持我們的銷售勢頭。

In 2025, we are projecting an additional per store inventory of 5%, with a little over half of that increase driven by the investments in our expanded distribution center and hub store inventory layers. The remainder of the increase is geared to capitalize on targeted additions to our stores to ensure that we're offering the best possible local assortment and inventory availability.

到 2025 年，我們預計每家店的庫存將增加 5%，其中略多於一半的增幅來自於我們對擴大配送中心和樞紐門市庫存層的投資。剩餘的成長將用於對我們門市進行有針對性的擴張，以確保我們提供盡可能最佳的本地商品組合和庫存。

Now I want to spend some time covering our SG&A and operating profit performance for 2024 and our outlook for 2025. Fourth quarter SG&A expense as a percent of sales was 33.3%, up 68 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2023. This significant increase was driven by a $35 million charge, representing 85 basis points to adjust reserves relating to our self-insurance liabilities for historic auto liability claims.

現在，我想花一些時間介紹一下我們 2024 年的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 和營業利潤表現以及 2025 年的展望。第四季銷售、一般及行政開支佔銷售額的百分比為 33.3%，比 2023 年第四季上升 68 個基點。這一大幅增長是由 3500 萬美元的費用推動的，相當於 85 個基點，用於調整與我們歷史汽車責任索賠的自保責任相關的準備金。

As we noted in our press release yesterday, the adjustment relates to claims that occurred prior to 2024 and reflects adverse claim development spanning multiple years of exposure to losses from accidents incurred in the operation of our store delivery fleet.

正如我們昨天在新聞稿中指出的那樣，該調整涉及 2024 年之前發生的索賠，並反映了多年來因我們商店送貨車隊運營中發生的事故而造成的損失的不利索賠發展。

Unfortunately, we have realized significant inflation in the cost to resolve these claims. This pressure, coupled with slower development timelines resulted in the need to make the significant adjustment we recorded in the fourth quarter.

不幸的是，我們意識到解決這些索賠的成本大幅上漲。這種壓力，加上開發進度放緩，導致我們需要在第四季做出重大調整。

The adjustment was driven both by our experience in administering and resolving these claims and also from revised assumptions that we use to estimate future liabilities. While the charge was driven by significant increases in cost on an average claim basis rather than an increased frequency of accidents, we are taking all steps possible to improve safety, reduce accident rates, and limit future loss exposure.

這項調整是基於我們管理和解決這些索賠的經驗，以及我們用於估計未來負債的修訂假設。雖然收費的原因是平均索賠成本大幅增加，而不是事故發生頻率增加，但我們正在採取一切可能的措施來提高安全性，降低事故率，並限制未來的損失風險。

Average per store SG&A expenses for the full year of 2024 were up 4.6%, with 0.7% of that growth reflecting the fourth quarter charge. Excluding the adjustment for the pre-2024 auto claims, our per store SG&A growth was in line with our revised expectations of 3.5% to 4% and below the guidance range that we set at the beginning of the year of 4.5% to 5% growth.

2024 年全年平均每家店的銷售、一般及行政開支上漲 4.6%，其中 0.7% 的增長反映了第四季度的費用。不包括 2024 年前汽車索賠的調整，我們每家店的銷售、一般及行政費用增長符合我們修訂後的 3.5% 至 4% 的預期，且低於我們在年初設定的 4.5% 至 5% 的增長指導範圍。

While we are certainly disappointed by the negative impact of the charge to our fourth quarter results, we are otherwise pleased in how we finished out 2024 and the productivity of the rest of our SG&A spend in the quarter, which generated 18 basis points of leverage over the prior year on a 3% increase in SG&A per store.

雖然我們對這筆費用對我們第四季度業績造成的負面影響感到失望，但我們對 2024 年的業績以及本季度其餘銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 支出的生產力感到滿意，這比上年產生了 18 個基點的槓桿率，每家門市的銷售、一般及行政費用增加了 3%。

As we look forward to 2025, we are planning to grow average SG&A per store by 2% to 2.5%, which equates to 2.5% to 3% growth, excluding the impact of lapping the fourth quarter 2024 charge. Based on our SG&A expectations and projected gross margin range, we're setting our operating profit guidance range at 19.2% to 19.7% which at the midpoint is in line with our full year 2024 results.

展望 2025 年，我們計劃將每家門市的平均銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 增加 2% 至 2.5%，相當於成長 2.5% 至 3%，不包括 2024 年第四季費用的影響。根據我們的銷售、一般及行政費用預期和預計毛利率範圍，我們將營業利潤預期範圍設定為 19.2％ 至 19.7％，中間值與我們 2024 年全年業績一致。

Since our guidance range implicitly assumes a year over year benefit of approximately 20 basis points from calendering the fourth quarter 2024 charge, we are also expecting an offsetting pressure to operating margin. Our SG&A outlook for 2025 anticipates the prudent actions our team will take to manage expenses to effectively execute our business appropriately in response to market conditions in a similar fashion to the steps that we took to adjust operating expenses down as we moved through 2024.

由於我們的指導範圍隱含地假設了 2024 年第四季費用的按年收益約為 20 個基點，因此我們也預期營業利潤率將面臨抵銷壓力。我們對 2025 年的銷售、一般及行政費用展望預計我們的團隊將採取審慎行動來管理費用，以便根據市場情況有效地開展業務，其方式類似於我們在 2024 年採取的降低運營費用的措施。

However, these expense measures are limited by our expectation of modest pressure to wage rates, as well as investments in key capabilities, including the hub store and technology initiatives that Brad outlined earlier. We remain committed to investing in our business to grow market share and drive industry-leading results.

然而，這些費用措施受到我們對工資率適度壓力的預期以及對關鍵能力的投資（包括布拉德先前概述的中心商店和技術計劃）的限制。我們將繼續致力於投資我們的業務，以擴大市場份額並推動行業領先的業績。

We have been pleased with our ability to capitalize on our strong competitive positioning and sustain our industry leading growth momentum, and we'll continue to judiciously manage our capital and operating investments to drive long-term growth and high returns.

我們很高興能夠利用我們強大的競爭地位並保持我們行業領先的成長勢頭，我們將繼續明智地管理我們的資本和營運投資，以推動長期成長和高回報。

As I conclude my comments, I would like to thank the entire O'Reilly team for their hard work and dedication in 2024.

在結束我的評論時，我想感謝整個 O'Reilly 團隊在 2024 年的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。

And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Jeremy.

現在，我想把電話轉給傑瑞米。

Thanks, Brent.

謝謝，布倫特。

I would also like to thank all of team O'Reilly for their continued commitment to our company and our customers.

我還要感謝 O'Reilly 團隊的所有成員對我們公司和客戶的持續承諾。

Now we will fill in some additional details on our fourth quarter results and guidance for 2025. For the fourth quarter, sales increased $264 million driven by a 4.4% increase in comparable store sales and a $66 million non-comp contribution from stores opened in 2023 and 2024 that have not yet entered the comp base.

現在，我們將提供有關第四季度業績和 2025 年指引的一些更多詳細資訊。第四季度，銷售額成長 2.64 億美元，這得益於同店銷售額成長 4.4%，以及 2023 年和 2024 年開設但尚未進入同店銷售額的門市貢獻 6,600 萬美元的非同店銷售額。

For 2025, we expect our total revenues to be between $17.4 billion and $17.7 billion. Our fourth quarter effective tax rate was 19.6% of pre-tax income, comprised of a base rate of 20.4%, reduced by a 0.7% benefit for share-based compensation.

到 2025 年，我們預計總收入將在 174 億美元至 177 億美元之間。我們第四季的有效稅率為稅前收入的 19.6%，由 20.4% 的基本稅率減去 0.7% 的股權激勵收益組成。

This compares to the fourth quarter of 2023 rate of 17.7% of pre-tax income comprised of a base tax rate of 18.9% reduced by a 1.2% benefit for share-based compensation. The fourth quarter of 2024 base rate as compared to 2023 was higher as a result of the timing of recognition of certain tax credits.

相較之下，2023 年第四季的稅前收入稅率為 17.7%，由 18.9% 的基本稅率減去 1.2% 的股權激勵收益組成。由於確認某些稅收抵免的時間，2024 年第四季的基準利率與 2023 年相比有所上升。

For the full year, our effective tax rate was 21.6% of pre-tax income, comprised of a base rate of 22.9%, reduced by 1.3% for share-based compensation. For the full year of 2025, we expect an effective tax rate of 22.6%, comprised of a base rate of 23%, reduced by a benefit of 0.4% for share-based compensation. We expect the quarterly rate to fluctuate due to variations in the tax benefit from share-based compensation and the tolling of certain tax periods in the fourth quarter.

全年而言，我們的有效稅率為稅前收入的 21.6%，由 22.9% 的基本稅率加上 1.3% 的股權激勵費用組成。對於 2025 年全年，我們預計有效稅率為 22.6%，由 23% 的基本稅率加上 0.4% 的股權激勵福利組成。我們預計，由於股權激勵稅收優惠的變化以及第四季度某些納稅期的中止，季度稅率將出現波動。

As we outlined in our press release yesterday, we have established our earnings per share guidance for 2025 at $42.60 to $43.10 which reflects an increase over 2024 EPS of 5.4% at the midpoint. The year over year increase reflected in our guidance range includes both the benefit of calendering the fourth quarter 2024 self-insurance charge, as well as the headwind from the increase in our expected effective tax rate with the impacts from these items roughly offsetting.

正如我們昨天在新聞稿中概述的那樣，我們已將 2025 年每股收益預期確定為 42.60 美元至 43.10 美元，這反映了中點 2024 年每股收益比 5.4% 的增長。我們的指導範圍反映的同比增長既包括 2024 年第四季度自保費用延期的好處，也包括預期有效稅率增加帶來的阻力，這些項目的影響大致抵消。

Now we will move on to free cash flow and the components that drove our results in 2024 and our expectations for 2025. Free cash flow for 2024 was $2 billion which was unchanged from 2023. Pressure to free cash flow in 2024 from the timing of tax payments and purchases of renewable energy tax credits, which we were able to defer in 2023, was offset by growth in net income and a decrease in net inventory in 2024 versus an investment in net inventory in 2023.

現在，我們將討論自由現金流以及推動我們 2024 年業績的因素以及我們對 2025 年的期望。2024 年的自由現金流為 20 億美元，與 2023 年持平。2024 年納稅時間和購買再生能源稅收抵免給自由現金流帶來了壓力（我們可以在 2023 年推遲這些壓力），但 2024 年淨收入的增長和淨庫存的減少（相對於 2023 年淨庫存的投資）抵消了這一壓力。

For 2025, we expect free cash flow to be in the range of $1.6 billion to $1.9 billion. The expected reduction in free cash flow is driven by the incremental capital expenditures and inventory investments Brad and Brent outlined in their prepared comments partially offset by growth in operating income.

到 2025 年，我們預計自由現金流將在 16 億美元至 19 億美元之間。自由現金流的預期減少是由布拉德和布倫特在其準備好的評論中概述的增量資本支出和庫存投資推動的，但營業收入的增長部分抵消了這一減少。

I also want to touch briefly on our AP to inventory ratio. We finished the fourth quarter at 128%, which was down from 131% at the end of 2023, but marginally better than our expectations for the end of 2024. For 2025, we expect to see continued moderation resulting from our planned incremental inventory investment across our store and distribution network, and currently expect to finish the year at a ratio of approximately 125%.

我還想簡單談談我們的應付帳款與庫存比率。我們第四季的業績為 128%，低於 2023 年底的 131%，但略優於我們對 2024 年底的預期。到 2025 年，我們預計這一比例將繼續放緩，這得益於我們計劃在整個商店和分銷網絡中增加庫存投資，目前預計今年年底這一比例將達到約 125%。

Moving on to debt. We finished the fourth quarter with an adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.99 times as compared to our end of 2023 ratio of 2.03 times with a modest increase in adjusted debt more than offset by EBITDAR growth. We continue to be below our leverage target of 2.5 times and plan to prudently approach that number over time.

繼續討論債務。我們第四季結束時的調整後負債與 EBITDA 比率為 1.99 倍，而 2023 年底的比率為 2.03 倍，調整後債務的小幅增加被 EBITDAR 成長所抵銷。我們的槓桿率仍然低於 2.5 倍的目標，並計劃隨著時間的推移謹慎地接近這一數字。

We continue to be pleased with the execution of our share repurchase program. And for 2024, we repurchased 1.9 million shares at an average share price of $1,072 for a total investment of $2.1 billion. Since the inception of our share repurchase program in 2011, we have repurchased 96 million shares at an average share price of $264 for a total investment of $25.4 billion.

我們對我們的股票回購計劃的執行感到滿意。2024 年，我們以平均每股 1,072 美元的價格回購了 190 萬股，總投資額為 21 億美元。自 2011 年啟動股票回購計畫以來，我們已以平均每股 264 美元的價格回購了 9,600 萬股，總投資額達 254 億美元。

We remain very confident that the average repurchase price is supported by the expected discounted future cash flows of our business, and we continue to view our buyback program as an effective means of returning excess capital to our shareholders.

我們仍然非常有信心，平均回購價格受到我們業務預期折現未來現金流的支撐，並且我們繼續將我們的回購計劃視為向股東返還過剩資本的有效手段。

As a reminder, our EPS guidance includes the impact of shares repurchased through this call but does not include any additional share repurchases.

提醒一下，我們的每股盈餘指引包括透過本次電話會議回購的股票的影響，但不包括任何額外的股票回購。

Before I open up our call for your questions, I would like to thank our team for their hard work and the commitment to excellent customer service that drives our success.

在我開始回答你們的問題之前，我想感謝我們團隊的辛勤工作和對推動我們成功的優質客戶服務的承諾。

This concludes our prepared comments.

我們的準備好的評論到此結束。

At this time, I would like to ask Matt, the operator, to return to the line, and we will be happy to answer your questions.

現在，我想請接線員 Matt 返回電話線，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Scot Ciccarelli, Truist.

斯科特·西卡雷利（Scot Ciccarelli），Truist。

Josh Young on for Scot.

喬許楊 (Josh Young) 取代斯科特 (Scot)。

Could you help us understand better -- you've started sourcing exposure to China, Mexico and Canada on a percentage COG basis. And then what are you guys hearing at this point from your vendors on price increase expectations and how much would that proposed tariffs change that?

您能否幫助我們更好地理解—您已經開始以成本成本百分比為基礎採購中國、墨西哥和加拿大的風險敞口。那麼，你們現在從供應商那裡聽到了什麼關於價格上漲的預期，以及擬議的關稅將在多大程度上改變這種狀況？

This is Brent. I can start on that, and these guys can add in as we go through it.

這是布倫特。我可以從那裡開始，然後這些人可以在我們進行過程中添加內容。

Yeah, in terms of sourcing, obviously the big question, nobody's got a crystal ball. Like we said in the guidance, we're -- don't anticipate tariffs, but we all know that there's some looming threat of that. So China, we're in the 25%-ish range sourced from China 25%, 26%, mid-20s percent. Mexico, we're in the high teens at this point. So we'll see how things go there.

是的，就採購而言，顯然這是一個大問題，沒有人擁有水晶球。正如我們在指引中所說的那樣，我們預計不會徵收關稅，但我們都知道存在一些迫在眉睫的威脅。因此，我們從中國採購的零件佔比在 25% 左右，分別為 25%、26% 和 20% 左右。墨西哥，目前我們正處於十幾歲的階段。我們將看看那裡的情況如何。

Canada, you're talking low single digit, not a real impact there. So but the thing to remember is as it relates to those things, we're -- in many cases, we're not the importer of record. So we work with our suppliers as those tariffs, if they get enacted, if they get passed on, we're going to work with our suppliers to negotiate what that true impact would be to us in those situations.

加拿大，你說的只是個位數的低數字，對那裡沒有真正的影響。但要記住的是，就這些事情而言，在很多情況下，我們不是記錄上的進口商。因此，我們會與供應商合作，如果這些關稅得以實施，如果它們被傳遞下去，我們將與供應商合作，協商在這些情況下對我們會產生什麼真正的影響。

Several things that I give our sourcing and our merchandizing team a ton of credit for, over the last several years through COVID and some of the challenges we faced and really even going back to 2018, 2019, when the first round of China tariffs went into effect, our team's done a great job continuing to diversify our global supply chain and reduce dependency on some of the hotspots that we know about.

過去幾年，儘管經歷了新冠疫情和一些挑戰，甚至早在 2018 年和 2019 年第一輪中國關稅生效時，我們的採購和銷售團隊都表現出色，繼續實現全球供應鏈多元化，減少對我們所了解的一些熱點地區的依賴，這都要歸功於我們的採購和銷售團隊。

And with our proprietary brands and the growth that we continue to see in our proprietary brands, which are over 50% of our revenue now, just managing that portfolio gives us the ability to source from multiple suppliers, multiple countries of origin, and to evolve as we need to in changing conditions.

憑藉我們的專有品牌以及持續的成長（目前占我們收入的 50% 以上），僅管理該組合就使我們能夠從多個供應商、多個原產國採購，並根據不斷變化的條件根據需要進行發展。

So. Well, I think everybody is facing some of the challenges. Obviously anybody in retail is facing a lot of the tariff questions right now and the challenges right now. I really feel like we're as well-positioned as anyone to effectively deal with those challenges and to work with our supplier partners to be able to pass along anything in a very rational industry that may come our way.

所以。嗯，我認為每個人都面臨一些挑戰。顯然，零售業的任何人都現在面臨著許多關稅問題和挑戰。我真的覺得，我們和其他人一樣，有能力有效應對這些挑戰，並與我們的供應商合作夥伴合作，在一個非常理性的行業中傳遞我們可能遇到的任何事情。

Yeah. Josh, maybe the only thing that I would add to that explanation is, unfortunately, we're just kind of in a situation where it's been a little bit of a moving target and it's a challenge for us at this stage to give you just a real complete picture on exactly how that's going to look for a lot of the reasons that Brent talked about. Also keeping in mind that, when we think about how our COGS is comprised, there are pieces of that like our distribution that aren't impacted.

是的。喬希，也許我唯一想補充的是，不幸的是，我們正處於這樣一種情況中，它就像一個移動的目標，對於我們來說，現階段的一個挑戰是給你一個完整的畫面，說明由於布倫特談到的很多原因，情況到底會如何。另外請記住，當我們思考我們的 COGS 是如何構成的時，其中的一些部分（例如我們的分銷）不會受到影響。

So when we talk about those percentages, we're really talking about how we think about the sourcing impacts that come from that. I think for us, the confidence that we have having been through a couple cycles of more dynamic changes in how costs have run through our supply chain that Brent called out within his prepared comments puts us in a position where it's going to be hard to anticipate exactly where some of this will settle.

因此，當我們談論這些百分比時，我們實際上是在談論我們如何看待由此產生的採購影響。我認為對我們來說，我們已經經歷了幾個週期的更具動態的變化，成本如何通過我們的供應鏈流動，正如布倫特在他的準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們有信心，這讓我們很難預測其中一些問題究竟會在何處得到解決。

For sure, we've seen the first round of those changes and some threatened, and we'll see where that goes as we move through the year, but our industry is just showing the ability to leverage pricing power and put us in a position where those costs can be passed through.

當然，我們已經看到了第一輪變化，有些變化正在威脅，我們將在今年看到這些變化將走向何方，但我們的行業正顯示出利用定價權的能力，並使我們處於可以轉嫁這些成本的位置。

Michael Lasser, UBS.

瑞銀的麥可‧拉瑟 (Michael Lasser)。

What drove your decision to guide your comp to 2% to 4% this year versus often guiding 3% to 5% at the outset of the year? And should we interpret this as any signal that O'Reilly expects its growth rate to be slower in the future than it has been in the past?

是什麼促使您決定將今年的業績預期控制在 2% 到 4% 之間，而不是年初通常控制在 3% 到 5% 之間？我們是否應該將此解讀為 O'Reilly 預計其未來成長速度將比過去更慢的訊號？

Great question, thanks for it.

很好的問題，謝謝。

Yeah. So I think the biggest thing, we put a lot into our guidance, a lot of thought, a lot of science, and then there's an art to it to knowing what's going on in the streets and our opportunities versus our competitors to continue to take market share. I think the -- obviously, the biggest thing that we want you to keep in mind, Michael, is that we're as excited as we are that our team was able to put up a 4.4% comp in Q4.

是的。因此，我認為最重要的是，我們投入了大量的指導、思考和科學，然後我們需要了解街頭發生的事情，以及我們與競爭對手相比的機會，以繼續佔領市場份額。我認為——顯然，邁克爾，我們最想讓你記住的事情是，我們的團隊在第四季度能夠實現 4.4% 的同比增長，我們對此感到非常興奮。

We had softer comparisons and while the cadence of our months building into '25 was pretty consistent, the week to week -- when you look at it week to week and you look at it kind of day to day, there's still just some choppiness in what we're seeing in the business and we still feel like there's a cautious consumer.

我們進行了較為溫和的比較，雖然我們進入 25 年的幾個月的節奏相當一致，但當你每週查看它並每天查看它時，我們發現業務中仍然存在一些波動，我們仍然感覺到消費者是謹慎的。

We contemplated the fact that discretionary categories like we talked about earlier, we're still seeing pressure to discretionary, even though we're pleased overall with kind of the maintenance and repair factors. We just -- we're heading into '25 just continuing to be cautious in terms of that lowering consumer -- DIY consumer, even though we have a lot of confidence in our ability to continue to take market shares.

我們考慮到了這樣一個事實，即像我們之前談到的可自由支配的類別，我們仍然看到可自由支配的壓力，儘管我們對維護和修理因素總體上感到滿意。我們只是 - 我們正邁入25年，在降低消費者 - DIY消費者方面繼續保持謹慎，儘管我們對繼續佔領市場份額的能力非常有信心。

So Michael, it's hard to think about exactly how we think about that in longer terms. So what we do know thinking about, '25, '26, and beyond to the second part of your question is that we're $16 billion, $17 billion company operating in a $168 billion industry in North America. And so while we do feel like we need to have some caution here, we know that our team has plenty of opportunity over the next many years to continue to play from a position of strength and really drive and control our own destiny, both DIY and DIFM.

所以邁克爾，很難思考我們究竟如何從長遠角度來考慮這個問題。因此，對於您問題的第二部分，我們確實知道，考慮到 25、26 年及以後的情況，我們是一家價值 160 億美元、170 億美元的公司，在北美 1680 億美元的行業中運營。因此，雖然我們確實覺得需要謹慎一些，但我們知道，在未來許多年裡，我們的團隊有足夠的機會繼續發揮實力，真正推動和掌控我們自己的命運，無論是 DIY 還是 DIFM。

My follow-up question is if we do assume that O'Reilly outperforms this initial range that it established, especially given the weather that's happened so far this year along with the opportunity to gain share in the wake of some store closings across the industry, how should we expect the flow through on upside to the comp guidance to hit the P&L?

我的後續問題是，如果我們確實假設 O'Reilly 的表現會超過它最初設定的區間，尤其是考慮到今年迄今為止的天氣情況，以及在整個行業關閉一些門店之後獲得市場份額的機會，那麼我們應該如何預期同比預期的上行流量會對損益表產生影響？

I appreciate the question. At this point, we're really in a position where we would need to lean back on our guidance and how we think about how that approaches our range. And just to understand as we move forward that if circumstances play out for us differently in 2025 and sometimes, they do. Certainly did last year. We're going to have to evaluate what that looks like and what that means for our business as we move forward because that can take any of a number of different forms.

我很感謝你提出這個問題。此時，我們確實需要依靠我們的指導以及我們如何思考如何接近我們的範圍。我們要明白，隨著我們不斷前進，如果 2025 年的情況對我們有所不同，那麼有時情況確實如此。去年確實如此。我們必須評估這種情況會是什麼樣子，以及這對我們未來的業務意味著什麼，因為它可以採取多種不同的形式。

For sure, one of the big questions is, is there going to be some level of pricing benefit that you get that we haven't baked in just because of the tariffs that roll through and the persistence of that. What does that have from a broader impact in the economy? What does that do from inflation levels, price levels, how does a consumer respond to that? There are lots of different, I think, factors that when you start to speculate as to how the year might go differently could play in differently to how we think about what the income statement looks like up and down.

當然，最大的問題之一是，是否會有一些價格優惠，而這些優惠是我們沒有考慮到的，只是因為關稅的實施和持續存在。這對經濟有怎樣的更廣泛影響？這對通貨膨脹水準、物價水準有何影響？我認為，當你開始推測今年的情況可能有何不同時，有很多不同的因素可能會對我們對損益表漲跌的看法產生不同影響。

We would tell you that within the guided range of where we've talked about how we think we spend this year, that is always first and foremost focused on what do we think is prudent and appropriate to take care of our customers with a high level of service. And that's the reason why that number we don't swing around substantially in lots of different groups because we're not focused on what the short term results are. We've got to make sure that we take care of our customers for the long term.

我們會告訴您，在我們討論今年如何支出的指導範圍內，我們始終首先關注的是我們認為什麼是審慎和適當的，以便以高水平的服務來照顧我們的客戶。這就是為什麼這個數字在許多不同的群體中不會有大幅波動的原因，因為我們並不關注短期結果。我們必須確保長期照顧我們的客戶。

But we've also included some investments that we feel really good about as we move through the year. So the long and short of it is that we'll see. Our business has given us the opportunity to continue to be able to lean into growth and be successful and how that flows down through. But this year, is there's still some unknowns and we're going to manage to it appropriately as we go through the year.

但隨著時間的流逝，我們也進行了一些讓我們感覺非常良好的投資。所以總而言之，我們拭目以待。我們的業務為我們提供了機會，讓我們能夠繼續實現成長並取得成功，以及如何將這種成長延續下去。但今年仍存在一些未知數，我們將在全年過程中妥善處理這些未知數。

Yeah. And I think Michael, just to add to that real quick. This is Brad. Just to wrap up, Jeremy said it very well, but as you know, comparable store sales can come in more than one form, meaning that, if we end up seeing additional inflation than we have contemplated today, in that case, just for an example, is you could see more leverage or easier leverage from that standpoint versus if we see an outsized share gain.

是的。我認為邁克爾只是想快速補充這一點。這是布拉德。總而言之，傑里米說得很好，但如你所知，同店銷售額可以有多種形式，這意味著，如果我們最終看到的通膨超出了我們今天所預期的範圍，那麼，舉個例子，從這個角度來看，與我們看到超額的份額增長相比，你可以看到更多的槓桿或更容易的槓桿。

We could continue to see leverage in that scenario as well, but we also reserve the right to, if we see us controlling our own destiny well with share gains and that's driving our top line above and beyond, we also want to continue to look for opportunities to lean in and really lean into that customer service and make sure that pays off not just this year but for the next many years.

在這種情況下，我們也可以繼續看到槓桿作用，但我們也保留權利，如果我們看到我們能夠透過份額增長很好地控制自己的命運，並且這將推動我們的營收超越，我們還希望繼續尋找機會真正依靠客戶服務，確保不僅在今年，而且在未來許多年都能獲得回報。

Gregory Melich from Evercore ISI.

Evercore ISI 的 Gregory Melich。

My first question is, just looking at the quarter, and when you think about this year, you mentioned that inflation same-SKU was I think 0.9% in the fourth quarter. What did you see from mix and complexity in the fourth quarter and how is that trending as you think into '25?

我的第一個問題是，僅看一下本季度，當您想到今年時，您提到第四季度同品類的通貨膨脹率為 0.9%。您從第四季的組合和複雜性中看到了什麼？

Yeah. Greg, I appreciate the question. We did see same-SKU that was just under 1% for us in the quarter as a top line benefit. As we think about just the impactors to our gross margin rate from a year over year perspective, for sure, there was some degree of that that was driven by just the inclusion of the Canadian business center results.

是的。格雷格，我很感謝你提出這個問題。我們確實看到同款SKU在本季為我們帶來了略低於1%的營收收益。當我們從同比角度考慮對毛利率的影響時，可以肯定的是，這在一定程度上是由於納入了加拿大商業中心的表現。

And then the mix from a customer perspective also saw some more kind of kind of temporary pressures in things like product mix, just the seasonality of business and a little bit of the categories that perform better, a little bit of pressure and things like our distribution costs side is we're working through a couple of facilities there that we relocated and had some exit costs in the Atlanta facilities, some transportation pressures that happened there.

然後從客戶的角度來看，產品組合、業務的季節性以及一些表現較好的類別等方面也出現了一些暫時的壓力，還有一些壓力，比如我們的分銷成本方面，我們正在處理那裡的幾個工廠，我們搬遷了這些工廠，在亞特蘭大的工廠產生了一些退出成本，那裡也出現了一些運輸壓力。

But by and large, what we've been pleased with is the ability to see just kind of the steady incremental acquisition costs or improvements as we've moved through the year just as a result of the ability with our supplier base to create value and find good opportunities there.

但總的來說，我們很高興地看到，隨著時間的流逝，我們能夠看到收購成本或改進穩步增加，而這得益於我們的供應商群體能夠創造價值並在那裡找到良好的機會。

Yeah. Greg, the only thing I would add to every -- hey, Greg. This is Brent. The only thing I would add to what Jeremy said, there's some of the elements he talked about in the quarter that were impactors with gross margin in Q4. We felt were some of it was transitory and timing in some respects, some of the things that he mentioned and feel very good about our proposition on the cost side as we move into '25.

是的。格雷格，我唯一想補充的是──嘿，格雷格。這是布倫特。我唯一想補充的是傑里米所說的話，他在本季談到的一些因素對第四季的毛利率有影響。我們覺得其中一些是暫時的，在某些方面是時機的，他提到的一些事情以及我們進入25年時在成本方面的主張感覺非常良好。

So that's what drives that normal increase. I guess my follow up then would be talking about the margin already. What does it mean for top line? I know in the past, you said that inflation and AUR expansion, average unit retail or mixed complexity put together could be a normal 2 points to 3 points of comp. Do you think -- is that what we ended up doing last year for the full year?

這就是推動正常成長的原因。我想我的後續行動將會是談論利潤。這對營收來說意味著什麼？我知道，過去您曾說過，通貨膨脹和 AUR 擴張、平均單位零售或混合複雜性加在一起可能是正常的 2 點到 3 點的補償。您認為——這就是我們去年全年所做的事情嗎？

Yeah. Thanks, Greg for the follow-up question. I realize now I probably answered the second question first, and I'll answer the first question second here.

是的。謝謝 Greg 提出的後續問題。我現在意識到我可能先回答了第二個問題，然後我將在這裡第二個回答第一個問題。

Yeah, I think our trends as we work through 2024 and what we expect in 2025 are pretty similar. There is a lift above the inflation number, the same-SKU number within our average ticket value. That is a helper. It was probably a little bit more compressed in 2024. Some part of that is when we think about that ticket size. It's just a consumer that's a little bit more pressured that might not add that extra item to their job that they may be able to do around with or not a lot of real trade down.

是的，我認為我們 2024 年的趨勢和 2025 年的預期趨勢非常相似。通貨膨脹率數字有所上升，我們的平均票價範圍內的相同 SKU 數量也有所增加。那是一個幫手。到 2024 年，情況可能會更加壓縮。當我們考慮票證大小時，就會發生這種情況。只是消費者的壓力有點大，他們可能不會在工作中添加那些他們可以應付的額外項目，或者不會進行太多的實際交易。

We've talked about that a lot through the year, but sometimes that can kind of squeeze the benefit that you get from complexity a little bit. We think that that largely is pretty normalized within our results. So we think that we'll be in decent shape next year to have a contribution if you kind of think about it in a few pieces, both from just modest same-SKU, a little bit of complexity benefit in the ticket, and then we do expect that with the professional growth that the ticket counts will be a contributor as well.

我們一年中已經多次討論過這個問題，但有時這可能會稍微削弱你從複雜性中獲得的利益。我們認為這在我們的結果中基本上是相當正常化的。因此，我們認為，如果從幾個方面來考慮的話，我們明年的情況會不錯，既可以從適度的相同 SKU 中獲得貢獻，也可以從票證中獲得一點複雜性收益，然後我們確實預計，隨著專業水平的提高，票證數量也會有所貢獻。

Bret Jordan, Jefferies.

布雷特·喬丹，傑富瑞。

Talk about regional performance and did you see any disruption in the west given the store closures that one of your peers is executing out there?

談談區域表現吧，鑑於您們的某個同行在西部關閉門市，您是否認為這給該地區帶來了任何影響？

Yeah. Hey, good morning, Bret. Yeah, I'll talk kind of about regional performance and then the second part of your question next. Yeah, overall, when we look at kind of the quarterly and we look at regional and division performance versus our internal plans and kind of what we were seeing from a weather standpoint, we really didn't have any major standouts in the fourth quarter.

是的。嘿，早上好，布雷特。是的，接下來我將談論區域表現，然後討論您問題的第二部分。是的，總的來說，當我們看季度業績並對比區域和部門表現與我們的內部計劃以及從天氣角度來看的情況時，我們發現第四季度並沒有什麼突出的表現。

Bret, in terms of regional performance, what you would kind of expect from weather benefits in some markets over others, but we were actually really pretty consistent in terms of regional performance and no standouts one way or the other.

布雷特，就區域表現而言，你可能會認為某些市場的天氣狀況比其他市場好，但實際上，我們在區域表現方面相當一致，沒有突出表現。

Talking about the West Coast a little bit on the competition front. I think it's still a little bit too early to kind of gauge how that's going. Our sales and operations team, anytime there's disruption and store closures. Obviously it's their job, and they take a lot of pride in making sure if there's a jump ball that we're the first to that. In any case, we possibly can.

稍微談談一下西海岸的比賽狀況。我認為現在判斷事情進展還為時過早。我們的銷售和營運團隊，隨時準備應對混亂和商店關閉的情況。顯然這是他們的工作，並且他們非常自豪地確保如果有跳球，我們能第一個接到。無論如何，我們有可能。

I think where I would kind of temper a little bit of that expectation in terms of any windfall from competitor closures and the fact that what we look at more so than just a share -- automatic share gain is it's not just a jump ball necessarily between us and one other competitor. Those markets are extremely competitive. There's a lot of independence and a lot of different players, especially on the professional side.

我認為，我會在某種程度上緩和這種預期，因為我們關注的不僅僅是市場佔有率——自動的市佔率成長，而這不一定是我們和另一個競爭對手之間的跳球。這些市場競爭非常激烈。有很大的獨立性，也有很多不同的參與者，特別是在職業方面。

And with the volumes we know are being fairly low in those instances, one thing to keep in mind is that we're going to kind of take a look as we see those happening and make sure that it's actually quality sales that's up for grabs. There may be some business that was being done that isn't the sustainable, profitable business that we want, and there could be some independence and things like that that are willing to take that, or we may have some opportunities that's a little bit more of our type business on our terms.

我們知道，在這些情況下，交易量相當低，要記住的一件事是，我們會在看到這些情況時進行觀察，並確保我們確實可以獲得高品質的銷售。正在進行的一些業務可能不是我們想要的可持續的、盈利的業務，可能有一些獨立性和類似的東西願意接受，或者我們可能會有一些機會，按照我們的條件，這些機會更符合我們的業務類型。

And so again, opportunity for sure, but we want to temper that with just seeing how the remainder of the closures kind of play out and just manage those expectations that we're going to work smartly through that and make sure that what's available is our type business.

所以，這肯定是一個機會，但是我們希望透過觀察剩餘的關閉情況來緩和這種機會，並管理這些期望，我們將明智地處理這些期望，並確保可用的是我們類型的業務。

And I guess my follow ups competitive landscape as well. There's a lot of chatter in the fourth quarter about non-traditional retail competition. Are you seeing anything changing around the DIY market with you guys down in Arkansas pushing in the space, or is that pretty much status quo?

我想我的後續競爭格局也是如此。第四季關於非傳統零售競爭的討論很多。隨著你們在阿肯色州的大力推動，DIY 市場是否發生了任何變化，還是維持現狀？

No. I -- Bret, good question. We really haven't. We -- really what I think about our best barometer, especially when Brent and I are looking at category performance and sector performances, what we're seeing in maintenance is a good kind of bellwether for us, not that we don't take anything that a nontraditional competitor does for granted.

不。我——布雷特，好問題。我們確實沒有。我們—我真正認為的是我們最好的晴雨表，特別是當布倫特和我關注類別表現和行業表現時，我們在維護方面看到的情況對我們來說是一個很好的風向標，並不是說我們不會將非傳統競爭對手所做的任何事情視為理所當然。

We always want to be monitoring those type things, but really what we're seeing in -- what we look at in maintenance categories like oil and filters is extremely encouraging. And so we don't feel like there's any issues there that we're aware of.

我們始終希望監控這些類型的東西，但實際上，我們在油和過濾器等維護類別中看到的情況非常令人鼓舞。因此我們感覺到那裡不存在我們所知道的任何問題。

Yeah. And Bret, this is -- yeah, Bret, maybe just add one thing to Brad's comment. In those categories that he talked about, filters and oil, some of those maintenance categories, we continue to see strength. And just a reminder too that I think the primary competitor you're referring to, they go to market on price and we go to market on service and availability. And we continue to see a lot of strength and demand for what we -- how we go to market versus maybe just price alone.

是的。布雷特，這是 — — 是的，布雷特，也許我只需要對布拉德的評論補充一點。在他談到的類別中，過濾器和油以及一些維護類別，我們繼續看到實力。另外提醒一下，我認為您所指的主要競爭對手是他們以價格進入市場，而我們則以服務和可用性進入市場。我們繼續看到，對於我們如何進入市場，而不是僅僅關注價格，存在著很大的力量和需求。

David Bellinger, Mizuho.

瑞穗的戴維貝林格 (David Bellinger)。

Maybe a couple of bigger picture questions, but we've noticed some more automation going into your distribution centers lately, more of a modernized approach. So should we expect any new buildings that come online to use those type of features and is there any way you can quantify those benefits whether it's in terms of saving delivery times and replenishing more stores or some type of labor savings? Just anything there to help frame that up would be helpful.

也許是幾個更大層次的問題，但我們注意到最近你們的配送中心出現了更多的自動化現象，更多的是現代化的方法。那麼，我們是否應該期望任何新上線的建築都使用這些類型的功能，是否有任何方法可以量化這些好處，無論是在節省交貨時間和補充更多商店方面還是在節省某種類型的勞動力方面？只要能幫助建構這一點，就會有幫助。

This is Brent. I can start on that. Yeah, we -- obviously the two projects that we successfully completed this year, the relocations in Springfield in Atlanta, we did include some goods to person automation. I think the way we really look at that is we -- obviously our distribution network's extremely important to our business model and parts availability and that time definite promise and delivering on that time definite promise with accuracy and and consistency.

這是布倫特。我可以從那裡開始。是的，顯然我們今年成功完成的兩個項目，即亞特蘭大斯普林菲爾德的搬遷，我們確實包括了一些貨物到人員的自動化。我認為我們真正看待這個問題的方式是——顯然我們的分銷網絡對我們的商業模式和零件供應以及準時承諾以及準確、一致地兌現準時承諾極為重要。

So what we added, I would just call kind of the evolution of distribution technology. And when you think about the marketplace, I mean we've been using -- we're always looking at MHE, we're always looking at how do we be -- how can we be more efficient, more effective in our buildings, and that goes whether that's sortation, conveyors, things like that.

所以我們加入的內容，我稱之為分銷技術的演變。當你考慮市場時，我的意思是我們一直在使用——我們一直在關注 MHE，我們一直在關注我們如何——我們如何更有效率、更有效地管理我們的建築，無論是分類、傳送帶還是諸如此類的東西。

So I would couch maybe the investment in some of the things we've done more recently in that regard in terms of just the ongoing evolution. Obviously we see a cost benefit or we wouldn't be doing those things as it relates to just labor overall efficiency and accuracy.

因此，我認為我們最近在這方面做的一些投資可能只是在持續發展方面。顯然，我們看到了成本效益，否則我們不會做這些事情，因為它只與勞動力的整體效率和準確性有關。

The thing I would tell you though, and I think it's important to not get too overly fixated on one capability or technology that we may have deployed in one of our 30 plus distribution centers, we're never going to have the same suite of goods to person in every DC in the network. That's not where we're going. We're always -- we look at every distribution center as we look at the market it serves, we look at the amount of SKUs we need in it, the capability we need to serve those stores, and how do we do that most effectively and most efficiently.

不過我想告訴你的是，我認為重要的是不要過於執著於我們可能在 30 多個配送中心中的一個配送中心部署的某一項功能或技術，我們永遠不會在網絡中的每個配送中心為人們提供相同的商品。那不是我們要去的地方。我們始終—我們會審視每一個配送中心，了解它所服務的市場，了解它所需的 SKU 數量，了解我們為這些商店提供服務所需的能力，以及如何最有效、最有效率地做到這一點。

And that's really what you're seeing in some of the recent investments we've made in some of that technology. So that's how we're looking at it and we're going to continue to always challenge that as we look at every DC project.

這確實就是我們最近在某些技術上進行的一些投資所看到的。這就是我們看待這個問題的方式，我們也將在審視每個 DC 專案時不斷挑戰這一點。

And then just my follow up. I'm curious if you can talk about your exposure to gas and diesel prices and in the context of operating expenses. If there is a period where we do go into a lower energy price environment and materially lower, but what type of benefits could you have on the SG&A side? Is there a way to size that up and that would be on top of the benefits you'd see also on the demand side? Just I'm talking about more internally though, is there a way that you could help frame that for us?

接下來就是我的後續內容。我很好奇，您是否可以談談您對汽油和柴油價格的影響以及營運費用的背景。如果我們確實進入較低的能源價格環境，而且價格大幅下降，那麼您在銷售、一般及行政管理方面能獲得什麼樣的好處呢？有沒有辦法對此進行衡量，並且能夠從需求方面獲得最大利益？我只是在談論更多的內部問題，有什麼方法可以幫助我們解決這個問題嗎？

Yeah. It's not an item that typically, David, we quantified or that we've drilled that into. I would tell you just from an order of magnitude, it's not a huge mover. We've had periods of time when gas prices and those types of input costs have fluctuated and it can be maybe a smaller order of magnitude helper or challenge if you see spikes there from an operating cost perspective.

是的。戴維，這不是我們通常量化或深入研究的項目。我想告訴你，僅從數量級來看，它並不是一個巨大的推動力。我們曾經經歷過天然氣價格和相關投入成本波動的時期，如果從營運成本角度來看出現峰值，那麼它可能只是一個較小數量級的幫助或挑戰。

But our teams have been able to manage that as a kind of a component piece of the overall spend, but it's an item that it has to move pretty substantially for it to move the needle from a companywide perspective. And we maybe had an instance or two of that in the past, but it's not usually something that's meaningful over a longer period of time.

但我們的團隊已經能夠將其作為整體支出的一個組成部分進行管理，但從全公司的角度來看，它是一項必須進行相當大幅度移動才能產生影響的項目。我們過去可能遇到過一兩次這樣的情況，但通常它不會在較長時期內產生任何意義。

Michael Baker, D.A. Davidson.

麥可貝克，地方檢察官戴維森。

A couple of follow-ups. One, I'm just a little confused on the trend really this quarter. We know there's a more difficult comparison in the expectation, I think, than is for the first quarter comp to be lower, yet I thought you said that January is running at the exit rate of 2024, which would be like 4.5% or 4.4%. I don't know if that's right, but anyway, could you help clarify that?

一些後續行動。首先，我對本季的趨勢確實有點困惑。我們知道，與第一季的比較相比，預期更加困難，但我認為您說 1 月的退出率是 2024 年的，即 4.5% 或 4.4%。我不知道這是否正確，但無論如何，你能幫忙澄清一下嗎？

Yeah. I know. Thanks for the question and absolutely want to be able to clarify there. When we talk about about the gains of our business, especially when we think about a really short period of time here in 2025, our focus is always on how we think about the day to day, week to week volumes of the business and how that relates to the trends that happen from just normal seasonality.

是的。我知道。感謝您的提問，我們非常希望能夠澄清這一點。當我們談論業務收益時，特別是當我們考慮 2025 年這個非常短的時期時，我們的重點始終是如何看待日常、每週的業務量，以及這與正常季節性趨勢的關係。

So when we say our business has been somewhat consistent, that is on that basis. To the extent that was not the situation in the prior year where December of -- now going back to 2023 was very light because of no weather, but January volume stepped up pretty substantially, then how the comp looks is going to be different.

因此，當我們說我們的業務一直保持一定穩定時，就是基於此。在某種程度上，這與前一年 12 月的情況不同——現在回顧 2023 年，由於沒有天氣原因，1 月份的銷量非常清淡，但 1 月份的銷量卻大幅增加，那麼比較的情況將會有所不同。

And I would -- I just explicitly tell you that the January comps are below where the December comps are at. It's just the math that pushes through. I think our point was that as we think about what our guidance for the full year should be in the considerations that go into that Brad talked about earlier, one of the places where we sit is we just think about the volume of our business as we start the year.

我要明確告訴您，一月份的同店銷售額低於十二月的同店銷售額。這只是推動數學發展的過程。我認為我們的觀點是，當我們思考全年的指導應該是什麼時，考慮到布拉德之前談到的考慮因素，我們的一個出發點就是考慮年初的業務量。

It looks similar to how last year looked with some, well, I'm sorry, with how we acted in December, understanding that that December to January type of time frame had similar weather. There weren't some of the swings in that. I think we had some favorable weather for both of those. I think it's also appropriate to remind everybody that that first quarter is kind of a quarter of two weather seasons. It's how does it start off with, with winter weather and then it's always very dependent upon that beginning to spring as tax refunds hit, as we start to see the initial spring weather and when that hits. So there's a lot of variability as we move through.

今年的情況看起來與去年有些類似，嗯，抱歉，跟我們 12 月的情況類似，因為我們知道 12 月到 1 月這段時間內的天氣也類似。其中並不存在一些波動。我認為，這兩件事發生的天氣都很有利。我認為也應該提醒大家，第一季是兩個天氣季節的結合。它是如何開始的，從冬季天氣開始，然後它總是非常依賴春季的開始，隨著退稅的到來，我們開始看到最初的春季天氣以及它何時到來。因此，在我們前進的過程中，會出現很多變化。

One more. Just to follow up on the inflation. We're starting to see some inflation in general come back and as I look at some of the CPI data for auto parts related sectors, it's starting to tick up yet you didn't really see that. You're slightly below 1%. I think it was actually even less than the 1% inflation on a like-for-like basis in the third quarter. And you're not expecting any pick up in 2025 outside of potential tariffs. Any reason why you're not seeing that increase in inflation that we're seeing generally in the economy?

再來一個。只是為了追蹤通膨。我們開始看到通貨膨脹總體上有所回升，當我查看汽車零件相關行業的一些CPI數據時，它開始上升，但你並沒有真正看到這一點。您略低於 1%。我認為實際上它甚至低於第三季 1% 的同比通膨率。除了潛在的關稅外，您預計 2025 年不會有任何成長。為什麼您沒有看到我們在經濟中普遍看到的通貨膨脹上升？

Yeah. I think at this point that the broader move is still somewhat a minor. I know it's starting to pick up broadly. And so just the timing of when those things start to happen, you can see a little bit of dislocation. We're not an industry that's going out and repricing a carton of eggs, week to week or anything like that.

是的。我認為目前整體走勢仍比較小。我知道它正開始廣泛流行起來。所以當這些事情開始發生時，你會發現有些混亂。我們不是一個每週都會出去重新定價一盒雞蛋或進行類似操作的行業。

We still largely sell a lot of products that have a slower turn. And so I think you see adjustments more gradually over the course of timing. And there's nothing that we would call out in maybe the broader landscape that tells us that we know we're back on a spike of a new trend.

我們仍然大量銷售週轉較慢的產品。因此我認為你會看到隨著時間的推移，調整會更加漸進。也許，從更廣闊的視角來看，並沒有什麼能夠告訴我們，我們又回到了新趨勢的高峰。

I think some of what we've talked about as we think about the next year is that it's still to be determined exactly where we think that broader price level story is going to go from a total economy standpoint. And still not convinced that we won't see some ability to hold off inflation and the impact that that might have on our business to be able to pass it through.

我認為，當我們考慮明年時，我們所討論的一些內容是，從整個經濟的角度來看，更廣泛的價格水平故事究竟會走向何方還有待確定。我們仍然不相信我們有能力阻止通貨膨脹，並且能夠度過通貨膨脹對我們業務可能產生的影響。

That's largely the reason why we tend to not be too speculative in how we think about our guide on future inflation that we haven't seen yet.

這在很大程度上就是為什麼我們在思考尚未看到的未來​​通膨指導時傾向於不要進行過多推測的原因。

Steven Forbes, Guggenheim Securities.

古根漢證券的史蒂文福布斯。

I was maybe hoping to follow up on the self-insurance reserve adjustment. Really as it pertains to go forward implications around servicing costs within the industry, so starting high level views on how we should think about this cost factor for not only yourself but other participants and whether rising insurance costs in a broader sense could drive more accelerated consolidation efforts, right, or maybe a rise in attrition rates. Just like how is that insurance cost dynamic impacting the industry?

我可能希望跟進自保準備金的調整。實際上，由於這關係到行業內服務成本的未來影響，因此，我們需要從高層次的角度來思考，我們應該如何看待這個成本因素，不僅是對您自己，而且是對其他參與者，以及更廣泛意義上的保險成本上升是否會推動更快的整合努力，或者可能導致人員流失率上升。就像保險成本的動態如何影響產業？

Yeah, no, thanks for the question. Yeah, I think it'll be interesting to see kind of how it plays out as we move forward. For sure, what we saw in our experience, we don't think is wholly unique to what's happening from a broader perspective. I think we are somewhat unique, or at least our industry is in the types of fleets that we run and the degree to which our professional business is supported by that level, but that's also kind of a core fundamental part of how we provide value and take care of our customers.

是的，不，謝謝你的提問。是的，我認為隨著我們不斷前進，看看它如何發揮作用將會很有趣。當然，我們認為，從更廣泛的角度來看，我們所看到的情況並不是完全獨特的。我認為我們在某種程度上是獨一無二的，或者至少我們的行業是獨一無二的，因為我們運營的車隊類型以及我們的專業業務得到該級別的支持程度，但這也是我們如何提供價值和照顧客戶的一個核心基本部分。

So I think it continues to be an item that is important both for how we go to market, but then also an important cost for us to be able to mitigate to manage and to move through.

因此，我認為這仍然是一件非常重要的事情，不僅對於我們如何進入市場至關重要，而且對於我們能夠減輕、管理和推進的成本也至關重要。

I will tell you, over the course of time, we've had periods where the rate of change here has been more accelerated. This is certainly one where there's more pressure than there's normally been. But there's nothing in what we've seen that would tell you that we're not going to be in a position to operate our business. And to operate in a safe manner that helps us to control this moving forward.

我會告訴你，隨著時間的推移，我們經歷了變化速度更快的時期。這次的壓力肯定比平常更大。但我們所看到的情況並沒有任何跡象表明我們將無法繼續經營我們的業務。並以安全的方式操作有助於我們控制這一進程。

We'll see. The cost of resolving these types of accidents is what's really creating the pressure, but it's a component of the cost it takes for us to go to market and we'll have to manage through the way that might change in the same way that we would any other part of our operating cost structure.

我們將會看到。解決此類事故的成本才是真正的壓力，但它是我們進入市場成本的一個組成部分，我們必須以管理營運成本結構其他部分的方式，透過可能發生變化的方式來管理。

And maybe just a quick follow up, right, given the owned versus leased store mix for the 2025 store cohort. Can you remind us of the capital cost difference between the two build types and then comment on what the four wall EBITDA margin benefit is to those owned stores as we recalibrate the models?

也許只是一個快速的跟進，對吧，考慮到 2025 年商店群體的自有商店與租賃商店的組合。您能否提醒我們兩種構建類型之間的資本成本差異，然後在我們重新校準模型時評論一下四牆 EBITDA 利潤率對這些自有商店有何好處？

Yeah. So from a standpoint of just what the cost spin looks like, typically, we're going to be in that $3.3 million to maybe $3.4 million range for an owned store, and that's inclusive of the cost of construction development of the site and then how do you put equipment and computer systems, vehicles, those types of things. Depending upon the type of a lease that's substantially reduced, it's typically going to be somewhere between. $400,000 to $600,000 just depending upon the building and the condition that you get it in when it's delivered.

是的。因此，從成本角度來看，通常，我們自有商店的成本在 330 萬美元到 340 萬美元之間，其中包括場地建設開發成本，以及如何放置設備和電腦系統、車輛等東西。根據大幅減少的租賃類型，通常會處於兩者之間。 400,000 美元到 600,000 美元，取決於建築物和交付時的狀況。

So pretty substantial difference. We don't get down in the weeds too much on the specific store models as it relates to how we think about about our growth there, but feel very good that both owned and leased provide a very important and primary use of capital. It's the best place over the long course of time. We've been able to invest our shareholders' dollars and we'll continue to be for sure as we've improved the performance of our new stores and those returns have been enhanced.

差異相當大。我們不會過度專注於特定的商店模式，因為這與我們如何看待那裡的成長有關，但我們非常高興地看到，自有和租賃的商店模式都提供了非常重要和主要的資本用途。從長遠來看，這是最好的地方。我們已經能夠投資股東的資金，而且我們將繼續這樣做，因為我們已經改善了新店的業績並且回報率也得到了提高。

It does make owned stores that much more of an attractive investment for us.

它確實使自有商店對我們來說成為更有吸引力的投資。

We've reached our allotted time for questions. I'll now turn the call back to Mr. Brad Beckham for closing remarks.

我們的提問時間已經到了。現在我將請布拉德貝克漢先生致結束語。

Thank you, Matt.

謝謝你，馬特。

We would like to conclude our call today by thanking the entire O'Reilly team for your continued dedication to our customers. I would like to thank everyone for joining us on our call today, and we look forward to reporting our first quarter results in April. Thank you.

今天，我們想在電話會議結束時感謝整個 O'Reilly 團隊對我們客戶的持續奉獻。我感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議，我們期待在四月報告第一季的業績。謝謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開電話線並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。