Old Republic International Corp (ORI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina and I will be your conference operator today.

您好，感謝您的支持。我的名字是 Regina，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Old Republic International fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

現在，我歡迎大家參加 Old Republic International 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Joe Calabrese with the Financial Relations Board. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給財務關係委員會的喬‧卡拉布雷斯 (Joe Calabrese)。請繼續。

Thank you, Regina. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for the Old Republic conference call to discuss fourth-quarter 2024 results.

謝謝你，里賈娜。大家下午好，感謝您參加舊共和國電話會議討論 2024 年第四季的業績。

This morning, we distributed a copy of the press release and posted a separate financial supplement. Both of the documents are available on Old Republic's website at www.oldrepublic.com. Please be advised that this call may involve forward-looking statements as discussed in the press release and financial supplement dated January 23, 2025. Risk associated with these statements can be found in the company's latest SEC filings.

今天早上，我們分發了一份新聞稿，並發布了一份單獨的財務補充。這兩份文件均可在 Old Republic 的網站 www.oldrepublic.com 查閱。請注意，本次電話會議可能涉及 2025 年 1 月 23 日的新聞稿和財務補充中討論的前瞻性陳述。與這些聲明相關的風險可以在該公司最新的美國證券交易委員會文件中找到。

Presenting on today's conference call will be Craig Smiddy, President and CEO; Frank Sodaro, Chief Financial Officer; and Carolyn Monroe, President and CEO of Old Republic's National Title Insurance Group. Management will make some opening remarks and then we'll open the line for your questions.

今天的電話會議將由總裁兼執行長 Craig Smiddy 主持；索達羅 (Frank Sodaro)，財務長；以及 Old Republic 國家產權保險集團總裁兼執行長 Carolyn Monroe。管理層將致一些開場白，然後我們將開始回答您的問題。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Craig. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想將電話轉給 Craig。先生，請繼續。

Okay. Thank you, Joe. Good afternoon and welcome again to Old Republic fourth-quarter year end 2024 earnings call.

好的。謝謝你，喬。下午好，再次歡迎參加 Old Republic 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

So during the fourth quarter, we produced $285 million of consolidated pretax operating income, up from $237 million in 2023. Our consolidated combined ratio was 92.7% and that compares to 93.3% in the fourth quarter of last year. As we noted in the release, we've renamed our general insurance segment to specialty insurance. We believe specialty more appropriately reflects our specialty P&C strategy with 17 underwriting subsidiaries focused on unique specialty niche markets. So in specialty insurance, we grew net premiums earned by 13% in the fourth quarter and produced $228 million of pretax operating income, that's up from $195 million last year. The specialty insurance combined ratio was 91.8% in the quarter and that compares to 92% last year.

因此，在第四季度，我們實現了 2.85 億美元的綜合稅前營業收入，高於 2023 年的 2.37 億美元。我們的綜合比率為 92.7%，而去年第四季為 93.3%。正如我們在新聞稿中指出的那樣，我們已將一般保險部門更名為專業保險。我們認為，專業化更能反映我們的專業財產保險和意外保險策略，其中 17 家承保子公司專注於獨特的專業利基市場。因此，在專業保險方面，我們第四季的淨保費收入成長了 13%，實現了 2.28 億美元的稅前營業收入，高於去年的 1.95 億美元。本季專業保險綜合比率為 91.8%，去年同期為 92%。

Despite the continuation of higher mortgage interest rates and a tight real estate market, Title Insurance grew premiums and fees by 9% in the fourth quarter and produced $55 million of pretax operating income, up from $44 million last year. The Title Insurance combined ratio was 94.4% in the quarter and that compares to 95.5% last year. Our conservative reserving practices continue to produce both favorable prior year development and the specialty insurance and Title Insurance segments. And Frank will talk a little bit more about that as we get to his remarks.

儘管抵押貸款利率持續走高且房地產市場吃緊，產權保險業務的保費和費用在第四季度仍增長了 9%，稅前營業收入為 5,500 萬美元，高於去年的 4,400 萬美元。本季產權保險綜合比率為 94.4%，去年同期為 95.5%。我們保守的準備金做法繼續為前幾年以及專業保險和產權保險領域帶來有利的發展。當我們聽到弗蘭克的演講時，他會就這一點進行進一步的討論。

Our balance sheet remains strong even as we returned large amounts of capital to shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases. We declared a special dividend of $2 per share in the fourth quarter which reduced our book value per share by that same $2 amount. While we continue to return excess capital to shareholders, we also continue to manage for the long run, investing in new specialty underwriting subsidiaries, technology, and talent. And on that front, you may have seen earlier this month, we announced our latest new underwriting venture, Old Republic Cyber.

即使我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了大量資本，我們的資產負債表仍然保持強勁。我們在第四季度宣布了每股 2 美元的特別股息，這使我們的每股帳面價值減少了相同的 2 美元。在我們繼續向股東返還多餘資本的同時，我們也繼續進行長期管理，投資於新的專業承保子公司、技術和人才。在此方面，您可能已在本月初看到，我們宣布了最新的承保業務 Old Republic Cyber​​。

So I'll now turn the discussion over to Frank and then Frank will turn things back to me to cover specialty insurance followed by Carolyn who will discuss Title Insurance and then we'll open it up for our usual Q&A and conversation.

所以現在我將討論交給弗蘭克，然後弗蘭克會將事情轉回給我，討論專業保險，然後卡羅琳將討論產權保險，然後我們將開始通常的問答和對話。

So with that, Frank, I hand it over to you.

因此，弗蘭克，我將這個權利交給你。

Thank you, Craig, and good afternoon, everyone. This morning, we reported net operating income of $227 million for the quarter compared to $190 million last year. On a per share basis, comparable year over year results were $0.90 compared to $0.69 last year. Net investment income increased 10% and 16% in the quarter and year respectively driven by higher yields on the bond portfolio. Our average reinvestment rate on corporate bonds during the year was 4.8% while the comparable book yield on corporate bonds disposed of was 3.5%. The total bond portfolio book yield now stands at 4.5% compared to 4% at the end of last year.

謝謝你，克雷格，大家下午好。今天上午，我們報告本季淨營業收入為 2.27 億美元，而去年同期為 1.9 億美元。以每股計算，去年同期業績為 0.90 美元，去年同期為 0.69 美元。受債券投資組合殖利率上升的推動，淨投資收入當季和當年分別成長了 10% 和 16%。我們全年企業債平均再投資利率為4.8%，處分企業債券可比帳面收益率為3.5%。目前債券投資組合總帳面殖利率為 4.5%，去年年底為 4%。

During the quarter, the value of our total investment portfolio decreased by about $400 million. However, we ended the full year up over $100 million.

本季度，我們的總投資組合價值減少了約 4 億美元。然而，我們全年的獲利還是超過了 1 億美元。

Turning now to loss reserves. In the quarter, the consolidated loss ratios benefited from favorable development by 2.9 percentage points compared to 4.7 percentage points last year. As expected, the lower level in the quarter came primarily from specialty insurance and was consistent with the full year results.

現在談談損失準備金。本季度，綜合損失率受益於良好的發展，上升了 2.9 個百分點，而去年同期為 4.7 個百分點。如預期，本季的較低水準主要來自專業保險，並且與全年業績一致。

And I'll give some line of coverage details. Commercial auto and workers' comp continued to have strong favorable development although lower than last year. Property also experienced strong favorable development and was higher than last year. The favorable development in these lines were partially offset by unfavorable development in general liability which was spread across multiple subsidiaries and accident years and in transactional risk which is included within financial indemnity. This recent experience aided our decision to exit transactional risk which contributed less than $20 million of premium in 2024.

我將提供一些報道細節。商業汽車和工人補償繼續保持強勁的良好發展，儘管低於去年。房地產也經歷了強勁的良好發展，並且比去年同期有所提高。這些業務的有利發展部分被跨多個子公司和事故年份的一般責任以及包含在財務賠償內的交易風險的不利發展所抵消。最近的經驗幫助我們決定退出交易風險，該風險在 2024 年的保費貢獻不到 2,000 萬美元。

We ended the quarter with book value per share of $22.84 which inclusive of both the ordinary dividends and the $2 special dividend declared in the quarter equated to an increase of 11% for the year resulting primarily from our strong operating earnings. In the quarter, we declared nearly $560 million of dividends and repurchased $174 million worth of our shares, bringing the total capital return this year to just over $1.7 billion. Since the end of the quarter, we repurchased another $25 million worth of shares, leaving us with about $205 million remaining in our current repurchase program.

本季結束時，我們的每股帳面價值為 22.84 美元，其中包括本季宣布的普通股息和 2 美元的特別股息，相當於全年增長 11%，這主要歸功於我們強勁的營業收入。本季度，我們宣布派發近 5.6 億美元的股息，並回購了價值 1.74 億美元的股票，使今年的總資本回報略高於 17 億美元。自本季末以來，我們又回購了價值 2,500 萬美元的股票，使我們目前的回購計畫剩餘約 2.05 億美元。

And I'll turn the call back over to Craig for a discussion of specialty insurance.

我會將電話轉回給 Craig，討論專業保險事宜。

Okay. Thanks, Frank.

好的。謝謝，弗蘭克。

Specialty insurance net written premiums were up 16% in the fourth quarter with strong renewal retention ratios, rate increases on most lines of coverage, new business growth and an increasing premium production in our new specialty underwriting subsidiaries. Our net premiums grew by 21% in the quarter and 33% for the year. So we ended the year with $611 million of surplus lines direct written premium. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, in the fourth quarter, specialty insurance pretax operating income was $228 million while full year 2024 pretax operating income was $848 million. And the fourth quarter combined ratio was 91.8% while the full year combined ratio was 92.2%. The full year combined ratio was 2 points higher than the full year 2023 combined ratio which reflects the anticipated lower level of favorable prior year loss reserve development, somewhat offset by an improvement in the 2024 current year loss ratio.

第四季度，特種保險淨承保保費成長 16%，其中，續保留存率強勁、大部分險種費率上漲、新業務成長，以及新的特種承保子公司保費收入增加。我們的淨保費在本季成長了 21%，全年成長了 33%。因此，我們在年底的直接承保保費盈餘為 6.11 億美元。正如我在開場白中提到的，第四季度，專業保險稅前營業收入為 2.28 億美元，而 2024 年全年稅前營業收入為 8.48 億美元。第四季綜合比率為 91.8%，全年綜合比率為 92.2%。全年綜合比率比 2023 年全年綜合比率高出 2 個百分點，這反映了預期上一年損失準備金發展水平較低，但 2024 年當年損失率的改善在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。

So given these top line and bottom line results, we continue to grow at a strong clip and at a very profitable level within specialty insurance. Providing some more color and details. The loss ratio for the fourth quarter was 64.1 including 2.4 percentage points of favorable prior year loss reserve development. And that compares to 65.1 last year that included 5.1 points of favorable development offset by an increase to the 2023 current year loss ratio in the fourth quarter of '23.

因此，鑑於這些營業收入和淨利潤的業績，我們在專業保險領域持續保持強勁成長，並維持非常高的獲利水準。提供更多顏色和細節。第四季的損失率為 64.1，其中包括去年同期損失準備金成長 2.4 個百分點。相較之下，去年同期為 65.1，其中包括 5.1 個百分點的有利發展，但 23 年第四季 2023 年當年損失率的增加抵銷了這一影響。

The expense ratio was 27.7 in the fourth quarter and that compares to 26.9 last year while the full year expense ratio was 28.1 and that compares to 28.2 for the full year of 2023. So these results are right in line with expectations and those ratios are holding steady for us.

第四季的費用率為 27.7，去年為 26.9，而全年費用率為 28.1，2023 年全年為 28.2。因此，這些結果完全符合預期，並且這些比率對我們來說保持穩定。

Now turning to property catastrophic losses that impacted the industry as a result of the Los Angeles wildfires. First, of course, our thoughts remain with all of those in the disaster areas which includes about 100 of our associates. You may recall, we write less catastrophic exposed business than most of our peers. So currently, we estimate our ultimate LA wildfire losses to be between $10 million and $15 million.

現在來談談洛杉磯山火對該行業造成的財產災難性損失。首先，當然，我們的心與所有身處災區的人們同在，其中包括我們的大約 100 名同事。您可能還記得，與大多數同行相比，我們承保的災難性風險業務較少。因此目前，我們估計洛杉磯山火最終造成的損失在 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元之間。

Now to provide you with some details on commercial auto and workers' compensation. Commercial auto net premiums written grew 15% in the fourth quarter while the loss ratio came in at 77.9. And that compares to 78.3 last year. The full year loss ratio was 72.4 compared to full year of '23 of 71.5. Rate increases for commercial auto were approximately 10% and consistent with we've said in the last several quarters and really several years. Those rate increases are commensurate with the loss trends that we're observing.

現在為您提供有關商業汽車和工人賠償的一些詳細資訊。第四季商業汽車淨保費成長 15%，損失率為 77.9。相比之下，去年這一數字為 78.3。全年損失率為 72.4，而 23 年全年損失率為 71.5。商用汽車的費率上漲了約 10%，與我們過去幾季甚至幾年的情況一致。這些費率的增加與我們觀察到的損失趨勢相稱。

Workers' compensation net premiums written were about 1% higher in the fourth quarter while the loss ratio came in at 35.5 compared to 42.6 last year. Obviously, a lot of favorable development both this year and last year. The full year loss ratio was 48 compared to the full year 2023 loss ratio of 41.4. Loss frequency for work comp continues to decline. Same story that we've seen for many years now while the loss severity trend remains very stable. So given the higher wage trend within payroll, which again, as a reminder is our rating base. So that's a benefit for us.

第四季工傷賠償淨保費成長約 1%，損失率為 35.5，去年同期為 42.6。顯然，今年和去年都有很多有利的發展。全年損失率為 48，而 2023 年全年損失率為 41.4。工傷補償損失頻率持續下降。我們已經看到同樣的情況很多年了，但損失嚴重程度趨勢仍然非常穩定。因此，考慮到薪資單中薪資較高的趨勢，這再次提醒我們是評級基礎。這對我們來說是一個好處。

And given the declining loss frequency trend, the stable loss severity trend, our rate decreases of about 4% allow us to remain at a competitive and an adequate level when it comes to our current rates on workers' compensation. So we expect solid growth and profitability in specialty insurance to continue into '25 which reflects the success of our specialty strategy and our operational excellence initiatives. We also expect continued growth and contributions from our new specialty underwriting subsidiaries that we've talked about.

鑑於損失頻率下降趨勢和損失嚴重程度穩定趨勢，我們的費率下降約 4%，這使我們能夠在目前的工人賠償費率方面保持競爭力和足夠的水平。因此，我們預計專業保險的穩健成長和獲利能力將持續到25年，這反映了我們的專業策略和卓越營運措施的成功。我們也預計我們之前談到的新的專業承保子公司將繼續成長並做出貢獻。

So I'll now turn the discussion over to Carolyn to report on Title Insurance. Carolyn?

所以現在我將討論交給卡洛琳，讓她報告有關產權保險的情況。卡洛琳？

Thank you, Craig. The Title Insurance Group reported premium and fee revenue for the quarter of $702 million. This represents an increase of 9% from the fourth quarter of 2023. Premium and fees produced in our direct operations represented 23% of revenue versus 21% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Directly produced premium fees were up 24% from the fourth quarter of last year while agency produced premiums were up 5%. As shown in our recently enhanced financial supplement, new open title orders in our direct operations were up 26% during the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Nearly a third of the new residential orders during the quarter were refinanced transactions, continuing the trend that we saw last quarter.

謝謝你，克雷格。產權保險集團報告本季保費和費用收入為 7.02 億美元。這比 2023 年第四季成長了 9%。我們直接營運產生的保費和費用佔收入的 23%，而 2023 年第四季為 21%。直接產生的保費較去年第四季上漲 24%，而代理商產生的保費上漲 5%。正如我們最近增強的財務補充資料所示，2024 年第四季度，我們直接營運中的新開放所有權訂單與去年第四季相比成長了 26%。本季近三分之一的新住宅訂單是再融資交易，延續了上個季度的趨勢。

The fourth quarter included some large commercial transactions from our direct operations, pushing up our average revenue per commercial order. Total agency and direct commercial premiums increased moderately for the quarter and represented approximately 23% of net premiums earned in the fourth quarter of 2024 as compared to 21% in 2023. Our pretax operating income of $55 million was an increase of 26% over fourth quarter of last year, bringing our full year pretax operating income to $144 million. We're pleased to report that our combined ratio for the quarter was 94.4% compared to 95.5% during the fourth quarter of 2023. This is an improvement of over 1 percentage point driven by a combination of increased revenue and expense management.

第四季包括一些來自我們直接經營的大型商業交易，推高了我們每筆商業訂單的平均收入。本季代理商和直接商業保費總額小幅成長，約佔 2024 年第四季淨保費收入的 23%，而 2023 年為 21%。我們的稅前營業收入為 5,500 萬美元，比去年第四季成長 26%，使我們全年稅前營業收入達到 1.44 億美元。我們很高興地報告，本季的綜合比率為 94.4%，而 2023 年第四季的綜合比率為 95.5%。這是由於收入增加和費用管理的組合所導致的超過 1 個百分點的改善。

2023 and 2024 were challenging years for the real estate market. During the year, we watched the market pretty much bounce along the bottom and prepared for things to turn. Our 2024 revenues improved slightly over 2023 as buyers became accustomed to higher prices. Slightly improving rates coupled with strong homeowner equity pushed up refinance activity and newly built homes are starting to ease our inventory levels. We start 2025 mindful of where the market has been and encouraged by improvements in the broader economy and the overall direction of order counts of our direct operations.

2023 年和 2024 年對房地產市場來說是充滿挑戰的一年。在這一年中，我們看著市場在底部反彈，並為情況的轉變做好了準備。由於買家已經習慣了更高的價格，我們 2024 年的收入比 2023 年略有提高。利率略有改善，加上房主權益強勁，推動了再融資活動，新建住宅也開始緩解我們的庫存水準。在開啟 2025 年之際，我們會密切關注市場的現狀，並受到整體經濟狀況改善和直接營運訂單數量總體方向的鼓舞。

Our agency operations continue to assist agents with growing their market coverage. We are refocusing our technology efforts on integrated solutions that enable our agents to seamlessly connect to our customer portal. This will make it easier to do business with us regardless of which closing software is being used by our title agent. There will be more to come throughout the 2025 on these technology solutions.

我們的代理業務持續協助代理商擴大其市場覆蓋範圍。我們正在將技術努力的重點重新放在整合解決方案上，使我們的代理商能夠無縫連接到我們的客戶入口網站。無論我們的產權代理人使用哪種結案軟體，這都可以使我們更輕鬆地開展業務。到 2025 年，這些技術解決方案將會有更多應用。

Thank you. And with that, I'll give it back to Craig.

謝謝。說完這些，我就把它還給克雷格。

Okay, Carolyn. Thanks.

好的，卡洛琳。謝謝。

So profitable growth continued in specialty insurance in 2024 and we remain very optimistic for specialty insurance in 2025 and beyond. And in Title Insurance, we've remained profitable and our optimism is increasing as revenue has shown modest growth over the last few quarters. Overall, our strong 2024 operating performance drove solid earnings per share, solid operating return on equity and solid book value growth which enabled us to return a record amount of capital to our shareholders in 2024.

因此，2024 年專業保險將繼續實現獲利成長，我們對 2025 年及以後的專業保險仍然非常樂觀。在產權保險方面，我們仍然保持獲利，而且由於過去幾季營收呈現溫和成長，我們的樂觀情緒正在增強。總體而言，我們強勁的 2024 年營運表現推動了穩健的每股盈餘、穩健的營運股本回報率和穩健的帳面價值成長，這使我們能夠在 2024 年向股東返還創紀錄的資本。

So that concludes our prepared remarks and we'll now open up the discussion to Q&A where I'll answer your questions or I'll ask Frank or Carolyn to help me out.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束，現在我們將開始討論問答環節，我將回答你們的問題，或者我會請弗蘭克或卡羅琳來幫我。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

So I guess for the first question and I know I appreciate the commentary you provided on the general insurance business. As I was going through the supplement, I was particularly struck by the growth that you reported in general liability and the home and auto warranty and in the property business on a year over year basis for the full year. So I maybe and I know maybe some of this is tied in with some of the new business initiatives, but maybe you could dissect those three segments on sub segments and tell us what are the drivers there for the growth.

所以我想對於第一個問題，我很欣賞您對一般保險業務的評論。當我閱讀補充報告時，我對您所報告的一般責任險、房屋和汽車保固險以及房地產業務的全年同比增長感到特別震驚。所以我可能並且我知道這可能與一些新的業務計劃有關，但也許您可以剖析一下這三個細分市場的子部分，並告訴我們成長的驅動力是什麼。

Sure, Greg. Right. So indeed, a good amount of those premiums are coming from our new underwriting subsidiaries. When it comes to property, for instance, you have Inland Marine, one of our new underwriting subsidiaries is producing meaningful premiums. And as we note in the footnote there that our property includes our Inland Marine coverages. And our E&S operation is also producing meaningful premiums at this point and that contributes to both property and general liability growth as well.

當然，格雷格。正確的。因此，確實，有很大一部分保費來自我們新的承保子公司。以財產險為例，我們的新承保子公司之一 Inland Marine 正在產生可觀的保費。正如我們在腳註中指出的那樣，我們的財產包括內陸海運保險。我們的 E&S 業務目前也正在產生可觀的保費，這也有助於財產和一般責任的成長。

And then on home and auto warranty, actually home warranty is down a bit as you might expect because of the real estate market. And a lot of those home warranty products are provided in conjunction with the sale of a new home. But on the auto warranty side, we entered into several new auto warranty agreements and the auto warranty is producing some fairly significant growth there.

然後關於房屋和汽車保修，實際上，正如你所預料的那樣，由於房地產市場的原因，房屋保固有所下降。許多房屋保固產品都是與新房銷售一起提供的。但在汽車保固方面，我們簽訂了幾項新的汽車保固協議，汽車保固正在實現相當顯著的成長。

Just related to the specialty insurance segment, the biggest line of business for you by far and away is the commercial auto business. You talked about rate increases there. Maybe you could spend a minute and give us a perspective on what you see going on from a competitive landscape perspective.

僅就專業保險領域而言，迄今為止您最大的業務線是商業汽車業務。您談到了那裡的利率上漲。也許您可以花一點時間從競爭格局的角度向我們介紹您所看到的情況。

Sure. I would first just reiterate what we've now said for several quarters and several years and that is that we have been -- since things really started to go sideways in 2018 and 2019 with respect to severity and legal system abuse and those things that are contributing to that severity, we have been very diligent at monitoring severity trend on a real time basis, adjusting rates as we go along. And we have now since that time period five, six, seven years been getting double digit rate increases commensurate with the trend that we're seeing. So we have stayed on top of it. As such, we've had favorable development compared to the industry which has had unfavorable development.

當然。首先，我想重申我們幾個季度和幾年來一直在說的話，那就是，自從 2018 年和 2019 年事情開始變得嚴重以來，在嚴重程度和法律制度濫用以及導致嚴重程度的因素方面，我們一直非常勤勉地實時監控嚴重程度趨勢，並在過程中調整費率。自那以來，我們已經在五、六、七年內實現了兩位數的利率成長，與我們所看到的趨勢相稱。因此我們一直保持關注。因此，與發展不佳的行業相比，我們取得了良好的發展。

We've seen actually favorable development. And if you think about the fact that we jumped on it early, that we monitor it as closely as we do and get rate changes commensurate with those severity trends. That compounding of rate has served us well. And we are comfortable that as long as we stay current with the trends we're observing, we'll continue to be able to produce a profitable result there. So the industry, it really varies because as you know, you still have -- over the last year, we've seen a lot of competitors put up unfavorable development and they've reacted in different ways.

我們確實看到了有利的發展。如果您想想我們很早就發現了這個問題，並且密切監視它，並獲得與嚴重程度趨勢相稱的費率變化。這種利率複合成長對我們很有利。我們相信，只要我們緊跟所觀察到的趨勢，我們就能繼續獲得獲利。所以這個行業確實是千差萬別的，因為如你所知，在過去的一年裡，我們看到很多競爭對手取得了不利的發展，他們做出了不同的反應。

A lot of them raising rates substantially, which has created some opportunity for us given that we've been more steady over the course of the last five or six years. And when it comes to severity, it seems like from some of the commentary of those competitors, they're still pointing to severity as the reason for their unfavorable development. But that's not a new story for us. We recognize that severity back in '18 and '19 and we've stayed on top of it. We made major corrections immediately where we were getting rate increases that were upward toward even the high teens there for a while. And then we've just been getting the necessary rate increases since then in the 10% range to stay consistent with the severity trends we're seeing.

他們中很多人都大幅提高了利率，這為我們創造了一些機會，因為我們在過去五、六年裡一直比較穩定。而說到嚴重性，從一些競爭對手的評論來看，他們仍然將嚴重性視為其發展不利的原因。但這對我們來說並不是一個新鮮故事。我們早在2018年和2019年就認識到了問題的嚴重性，並且一直在關注它。我們立即做出了重大修正，因為我們得到的利率在一段時間內甚至上升到百分之十幾。從那時起，我們就一直在進行 10% 左右的必要升息，以與我們所看到的嚴重程度趨勢保持一致。

So it seems like we're very comfortable with where we're at and that others are still trying to react and figure things out.

因此看起來我們對目前的狀況感到滿意，而其他人仍在試圖做出反應並弄清楚事情。

I guess for the last question, ordinarily, Carolyn, I have one for Carolyn, but actually I'm going to change course and ask Frank a little bit about the investment portfolio. And I know with the yields having gone up in the last couple of years, I know there was a pivot a little bit away from the equity investment side, but it seems like that's kind of stabilized. So I -- from a big picture perspective, just where are we with new money yields versus where the portfolio yield is? Have you done anything with duration and what's your updated view on the balance between fixed income and equities?

我想對於最後一個問題，通常情況下，我會問卡羅琳一個問題，但實際上我要換個方向，問弗蘭克一些關於投資組合的問題。我知道過去幾年收益率有所上升，我知道股權投資方面出現了一些轉變，但似乎已經穩定下來了。因此，從整體角度來看，新資金收益率與投資組合收益率相比處於什麼位置？您對期限有什麼看法？

All right, Greg. I could dig into that a little bit. So I'll start with what your last question where we're at now, which is about 84 and 616 in equities. We're pretty comfortable with that level and we're poised to go either way up and down if we have to depending on the opportunities that are out there. But we're comfortable where we're at. As far as new money, we were putting -- for the year, we were reinvesting at about 4.8% on corporate bonds. And the portfolio yield right now is at 4.5 that fixed income portfolio. So there's some room to go up, but there's -- that's definitely slowing down, as far as duration and credit quality and all that. We're -- we have not made material changes in that in that arena. So it's a pretty steady state I would say poised to move where there's opportunities.

好的，格雷格。我可以深入研究一下這一點。因此，我先回答你最後一個問題，我們現在的狀況是，股市大約有 84 隻股票和 616 隻股票。我們對這個水平相當滿意，如果有必要，我們願意根據現有的機會上下波動。但我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。就新資金而言，我們今年以約 4.8% 的利率對公司債進行再投資。目前投資組合報酬率為固定收益投資組合的 4.5 倍。因此，還有一些上漲空間，但就期限、信用品質等而言，成長速度肯定正在放緩。我們—我們還沒有在該領域做出實質改變。所以，我認為這是一個相當穩定的狀態，只要有機會，它就會隨時採取行動。

Yeah, Greg. I would just add to that, that although we look at duration and we have some flexibility in our investment portfolio, we do try to match our liabilities so that the duration is reflective of our anticipated payment on those liabilities. So we follow that principal and that still leaves us some flexibility. But as Frank said, generally, our duration is consistent with what we believe we need to do relative to our anticipated liabilities.

是的，格雷格。我只想補充一點，儘管我們考慮了期限，並且我們的投資組合具有一定的靈活性，但我們確實試圖匹配我們的負債，以便期限能夠反映我們對這些負債的預期支付。因此我們遵循該原則，並且仍給我們留下一些靈活性。但正如弗蘭克所說，一般來說，我們的期限與我們認為相對於預期負債我們需要做的事情是一致的。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

保羅‧紐瑟姆，派珀‧桑德勒。

Wanted to ask some capital management questions. And maybe just sort of review and see if there's any changes in how you are thinking about your current capital position given the special dividends and dividends and the buybacks that you've done so far. And maybe you could talk a little bit about the trade off of capital usages. Particularly looking at dividend versus stock repurchases, what's your thinking in that at the moment?

想問一些資金管理方面的問題。也許只是進行某種審查，看看考慮到您迄今為止所做的特別股息、股息和回購，您對當前資本狀況的看法是否有任何變化。也許您可以稍微談談資本使用的權衡。特別是從股利與股票回購的角度來看，您現在對此有何想法？

Sure, Paul. I'm happy to talk about that. So one of the nice things that we've had to deal with, if you want to call it a problem, it's really not, is that as much as we've been returning to shareholders over the course of the last three or four years, we continue to refill the coffers if you well with very strong earnings and retained earnings So we -- while we've tried to eliminate excess capital, we keep creating excess capital. So we made a decision in the fourth quarter with the Board that we would issue the $2 special dividend as a way to return capital more quickly and in a single shot, so to speak and get us to a level that is more consistent with an appropriate capital level.

當然，保羅。我很高興談論這個。因此，我們必須處理的好事之一（如果你想稱其為問題，那真的不算問題）是，儘管我們在過去三四年中一直在向股東返還資金，但我們仍繼續通過非常強勁的收益和留存收益來填補金庫，因此，雖然我們試圖消除過剩資本，但我們仍在不斷創造過剩資本。因此，我們在第四季度與董事會一起決定，我們將發放 2 美元的特別股息，以便更快地一次性返還資本，可以這麼說，讓我們達到更符合適當資本水平的水平。

And at the same time, we retained our ability to continue to repurchase shares. And as Frank noted, we have about $200 million still on that current share repurchase authorization. And as we said at the beginning of our share repurchase programs, over the last few years, we are sensitive to price and when we look at repurchasing shares, we will look at where we're trading and relative to our peers and we see things. And so we do either accelerate or temper our share repurchases depending on where we might be trading and we remain opportunistic in that regard. So that'll continue and those factors will all come into play next time we sit with our Board and again, review our capital position and the best most efficient way to return capital to shareholders.

同時，我們保留了繼續回購股票的能力。正如弗蘭克所說，我們目前的股票回購授權仍有約 2 億美元。正如我們在股票回購計劃開始時所說的那樣，在過去幾年中，我們對價格非常敏感，當我們考慮回購股票時，我們會關注我們的交易情況以及相對於同行的情況，然後觀察情況。因此，我們確實會根據我們的交易情況來加速或減緩我們的股票回購，並且我們在這方面保持機會主義。因此這種情況會繼續下去，當我們下次與董事會會面並再次審查我們的資本狀況以及向股東返還資本的最佳最有效方式時，這些因素都會發揮作用。

Is there a particular model that dominates how you consider what is excess capital or not excess capital at the moment?

是否存在一個特定的模型來主導您如何考慮當前什麼是過剩資本或不是過剩資本？

Yeah, I wouldn't say there's a particular model. We look at many different dimensions and measures when we look at capital. And we of course look at liquidity as well. And if we believe we have substantial liquidity and we have substantial capital, we then look at how much we think we might have in the way of excess capital looking at various different leverage metrics. And of course, looking at our RBC ratios, looking at and having conversations with our rating agencies. So there's a lot of quantitative and qualitative analysis that comes into play when we look at our capital position.

是的，我不會說有一個特定的模型。當我們考察資本時，我們會考慮許多不同的維度和指標。當然，我們也會考慮流動性。如果我們認為我們擁有充足的流動性和充足的資本，那麼我們就會根據各種不同的槓桿指標來判斷我們可能擁有多少過剩資本。當然，我們也會查看我們的 RBC 比率，查看並與我們的評級機構進行對話。因此，當我們審視資本狀況時，需要進行大量的定量和定性分析。

But right now, even with the special dividend and the share repurchases, all of our conversations, all of our metrics would continue to suggest that that we certainly have sufficient capital and even some cushion beyond that.

但現在，即使有特別股息和股票回購，我們所有的對話、所有的指標仍然表明，我們肯定有足夠的資本，甚至還有一些緩衝。

I think we have no further questions at this time. I'll hand the call back to management for any concluding remarks.

我想我們目前沒有其他問題了。我會將電話交回管理層，以便他們做出最後評論。

Okay. Well, we here at Old Republic feel very good about the fourth quarter. We feel very good about 2024 and what we've been able to deliver to all of our stakeholders and our shareholders and we remain even more optimistic when we look out at 2025 given the various initiatives that we have underway and given where we sit today. And again, we wish you all well in 2025 and look forward to seeing you next quarter and we'll continue to report on our progress.

好的。好吧，我們舊共和國的人都對第四季感到非常滿意。我們對 2024 年感到非常滿意，也對我們能夠為所有利益相關者和股東提供的內容感到非常滿意，而考慮到我們正在進行的各種舉措以及我們目前所處的情況，我們對 2025 年更加樂觀。再次，我們祝福大家 2025 年一切順利，期待下個季度的再次相見，我們將繼續報告我們的進展。

So thank you all very much and have a great day.

非常感謝大家並祝大家有個愉快的一天。

Everyone, that will conclude today's call. Thank you all for joining and you may now disconnect.

各位，今天的通話到此結束。感謝大家加入，現在可以斷開連線。