Orange SA (ORAN) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the presentation of our 2018 results. I will first present the main highlights for 2018, and then I'll leave the floor to Ramon to go through the details of those results. So I suggest we start with Slide #4, which presents the main achievements for the year. In 2018, we have pursued our ambitions to offer an unmatched customer experience through connectivity and reached an innovative services and customer relations. In a highly competitive environment, 2018 was a very successful year for Orange. We have strengthened our networks with the largest fiber network in France, making us the leader in Europe with more than 29 million FTTH connectable homes.

歡迎來到我們 2018 年業績發表會。我將首先介紹 2018 年的主要亮點，然後由 Ramon 詳細介紹這些結果。所以我建議我們從第四張投影片開始，它介紹了今年的主要成就。2018 年，我們追求透過連結提供無與倫比的客戶體驗的雄心，並實現了創新的服務和客戶關係。在競爭激烈的環境下，2018年對Orange來說是非常成功的一年。我們透過法國最大的光纖網路加強了我們的網絡，使我們成為歐洲的領導者，擁有超過 2900 萬個 FTTH 連接家庭。

We have been ranked the best mobile network in France for the eighth consecutive year. We now have 4G in 12 countries in Africa and the Middle East. 2018 has also been the year for the first 5G field trials. Orange moved from the lab to the field, and performed end-to-end technical trials. It is noticeable that our networks are getting ready for 5G. For example, the mobile network in France has already more than 90% of the radio science connected by fiber, and our all-IP program reached 92% of broadband access over IP. We offered our customers richer connectivity by increasing data speed by 32% on fixed and 24% on mobile in 2018 versus 2017. From December 2014 to December 2018, the average data speeds of our customers increased by more than 7 -- plus 7 or multiplied by 7 on fixed and multiplied by 3 on mobile networks. Content is also essential for Orange to consolidate its position as a leading multiservice operator. At the end of 2018, we had 9.6 million IP-TV customers, and Content's revenues have increased by 14% year-on-year with a positive gross margin. OCS, our pay-TV channel, celebrated 10 years and near 3 million customers. In Spain, Orange reinforced its position in football contents, which boosted broadband's net adds.

我們連續第八年被評為法國最佳行動網路。目前，我們在非洲和中東的 12 個國家擁有 4G。2018年也是首次5G外場試驗的一年。Orange從實驗室走向了現場，並進行了端到端的技術測試。值得注意的是，我們的網路正在為 5G 做好準備。例如法國的行動網路已經90%以上的無線電科學透過光纖連接，我們的全IP方案達到了92%的寬頻存取通過IP。與 2017 年相比，2018 年固定資料速度提高了 32%，行動數據速度提高了 24%，為客戶提供了更豐富的連線。從 2014 年 12 月到 2018 年 12 月，我們客戶的平均資料速度增加了超過 7 倍——固定網路增加 7 或乘以 7，行動網路增加 3 倍。對於 Orange 鞏固其作為領先多服務業者的地位而言，內容也至關重要。截至2018年底，我們擁有960萬IP-TV客戶，內容收入年增14%，毛利率為正。我們的付費電視頻道 OCS 慶祝成立 10 週年，擁有近 300 萬客戶。在西班牙，Orange 鞏固了其在足球內容領域的地位，從而提高了寬頻的淨增加量。

We pursued our diversification strategy as multiservice operator through, first, mobile finance services in Europe and in Africa. Orange Bank reached 248,000 customers in France at the end of December 2018, with a record level of account openings in Q4 '18. Orange Money has become one of the world leaders in mobile money with 39 million customers, and thanks to mobile JV with MTN, we are now providing interoperability across the continent. We also continued to diversify into new B2B services by acquiring Business & Decision, Basefarm, and more recently SecureData to strengthen our position in the Big Data, cloud businesses and cybersecurity, respectively. The recent acquisition of SecureData is another step forward to establishing Orange's position as a leading player in the European cybersecurity market. We finally created a JV with Groupama, a well-established player in this segment called Protectline to reinforce our position in home security. We plan to launch this service for the consumer market in the spring of 2019 for both fixed and mobile customers in France. Orange aims to take a strong position in these markets, building on own its subscriber base, its brands, its physical and digital retail networks and its extensive expertise of Protectline.

作為多服務運營商，我們首先透過在歐洲和非洲提供行動金融服務來推行多元化策略。截至 2018 年 12 月底，Orange Bank 在法國擁有 248,000 名客戶，2018 年第四季的開戶數量創歷史新高。Orange Money 已成為行動貨幣領域的全球領導者之一，擁有 3,900 萬客戶，得益於與 MTN 的行動合資企業，我們現在可以在整個非洲大陸提供互通性。我們也透過收購 Business & Decision、Basefarm 以及最近收購的 SecureData，繼續多角化發展新的 B2B 服務，以分別加強我們在大數據、雲端業務和網路安全領域的地位。最近對 SecureData 的收購是 Orange 在歐洲網路安全市場領先地位方面又向前邁出了一步。我們最終與 Groupama（該領域的知名企業 Protectline）創建了一家合資企業，以鞏固我們在家庭安全領域的地位。我們計劃於 2019 年春季為法國的固定和行動客戶推出這項服務。Orange 的目標是憑藉自己的用戶群、品牌、實體和數位零售網路以及 Protectline 的廣泛專業知識，在這些市場中佔據強勢地位。

Let's move to Slide #5. To give you highlights of our commercial performance. Thanks to convergence, fiber and 4G, we delivered a very solid performance in the commercial area last year. We thus remained the #1 convergent operator in Europe with 10.9 million convergent B2C customers and double-digit growth in convergent revenue at plus 10% year-on-year. Convergence has reached 60% penetration in France, 85% in Spain and 57% in Poland.

讓我們轉到投影片 #5。為您呈現我們商業表現的亮點。由於融合、光纖和4G，我們去年在商用領域取得了非常紮實的表現。因此，我們仍然是歐洲排名第一的融合營運商，擁有 1,090 萬融合 B2C 客戶，融合收入實現兩位數成長，年增 10% 以上。融合在法國的滲透率已達 60%，在西班牙為 85%，在波蘭為 57%。

As you know, convergence is a strong acquisition and retention tool, meaning lower churn, higher ARPO and increased volume, thanks to the multiline approach. In fixed broadband, the main highlights are: first in France, we posted another record year in fiber net adds with plus 593,000 net adds year-on-year, reaching 2.6 million FTTH customers in this market. Once again, Orange was a leader in conquest share every quarter in 2018. Then in Spain, our leadership in fiber net adds combined with the new football offers, maintained a positive BB net adds trend initiated in Q3.

如您所知，融合是一種強大的獲取和保留工具，這意味著透過多線路方法可以降低客戶流失率、提高 ARPO 並增加銷售量。在固定寬頻方面，主要亮點是：首先在法國，我們的光纖網路新增量再創歷史新高，較去年同期淨增加59.3萬戶，該市場的FTTH客戶達到260萬戶。Orange 再次成為 2018 年每季征服份額的領先者。然後在西班牙，我們在纖維淨增加方面的領先地位與新的足球優惠相結合，保持了第三季度開始的積極的 BB 淨增加趨勢。

Overall, we remain a clear leader in the FTTH customer base in Europe. In Mobile, in Belgium, leveraging our excellent 4G network, we were the first operator to launch unlimited data offers for a net adds record in Q4, while reducing the churn rate by more than 20%. Overall in Europe, we remained the leader on the 4G client space in 7 countries out of 8. In Africa and the Middle East, 4G developments accelerated with 50% growth in the customer base year-on-year, reaching 17 million customers.

總體而言，我們在歐洲 FTTH 客戶群中仍然是明顯的領導者。在比利時移動，利用我們優秀的 4G 網絡，我們是第一家推出無限數據優惠的運營商，在第四季度創下了淨新增記錄，同時將客戶流失率降低了 20% 以上。整體而言，在歐洲，我們在8個國家中的7個國家的4G客戶領域保持領先地位。

Slide #6. Of course, this performance has been -- has made possible, thanks to the still large investment effort. We have been focusing our resources to keep on this pace of investment. So in line with our objective of providing the best quality network and services, 2018 was another year of investments in future growth through CapEx, spectrum, selective content and innovation with group CapEx growing to EUR 7.4 billion, perfectly in line with our guidance. Almost all of this growth came from network CapEx and was split roughly half-half between fixed and mobile.

投影片 #6。當然，由於仍然巨大的投資努力，這種表現已經成為可能。我們一直在集中資源以保持這種投資步伐。因此，根據我們提供最優質網路和服務的目標，2018 年是透過資本支出、頻譜、精選內容和創新對未來成長進行投資的另一年，集團資本支出成長至74 億歐元，完全符合我們的指導。幾乎所有成長都來自網路資本支出，固定和移動各佔約一半。

Most of the growth in very high broadband CapEx was linked to the cyber deployments programs in France and in Poland whereas they decreased in Spain. At year-end, the number of very high broadband connectable homes reached a group total of 32.5 million, a growth of 22% over 2017. And 2.7 million new connectable homes were added in France, 1.9 million in Spain, 900,000 in Poland, and almost 400,000 in Africa and the Middle East, of which 200,000 in Jordan. Most of the CapEx increase in 4G was linked to the extension of coverage in France, Poland and the Middle East and African region, particularly Mali, Morocco, Senegal and the Ivory Coast. In France, Orange had around 19 active 4G sites at the end of 2018, growing 27% over the year. Our network superiority was once again recognized by the French regulator's annual mobile survey.

法國和波蘭寬頻資本支出的成長大部分與網路部署計畫有關，而西班牙則有所下降。截至年底，超高速寬頻連接家庭數量達到 3,250 萬戶，比 2017 年增加 22%。法國新增 270 萬個連網家庭，西班牙新增 190 萬套，波蘭新增 90 萬套，非洲和中東新增近 40 萬套，其中約旦新增 20 萬套。4G 資本支出的大部分成長與法國、波蘭以及中東和非洲地區覆蓋範圍的擴大有關，特別是馬利、摩洛哥、塞內加爾和科特迪瓦。截至 2018 年底，Orange 在法國擁有約 19 個活躍 4G 站點，較去年同期成長 27%。我們的網路優勢再次獲得法國監管機構年度行動調查的認可。

So all in all, next slide, we have fulfilled clearly our 2018 guidance. Fully in line with this guidance, we have confirmed the relevance of our strategy with a slight acceleration in group revenue growth at 1.3% versus 1.2% in '17, and acceleration in group adjusted EBITDA at plus 2.7% versus 2.1% in '17, and an acceleration in group operating cash flow at plus 1.7% versus 0.5% in '17. At the same time, we kept a strong balance sheet. Even if we exclude the ePresse audio books impact in '17 and '18 on content offers in France, the acceleration in revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA is still a reality. CapEx was in line with our guidance at EUR 7.4 billion. Our net debt to telco-adjusted EBITDA ratio increased to 1.93x, in other way, reflecting our investments efforts that we keep, of course, the target of around 2 regarding this ratio. Regarding the dividend for fiscal year 2018, we will propose 70% -- EUR 0.70, sorry, per share, which represents a EUR 0.05 increase on the previous year, and we repaid the balance of EUR 0.40 on June 6 of this year. So as you can see, all components of our guidance for 2018 was fulfilled. And this is the reason, basically, where we are very satisfied with this set of results.

總而言之，在下一張投影片中，我們已經明確地實現了 2018 年的指導方針。完全符合此指導方針，我們確認了我們策略的相關性，集團營收成長略有加速，從17 年的1.2% 成長到1.3%，集團調整後EBITDA 加速成長2.7%，從17 年的2.1% 成長，集團營運現金流加速成長 1.7%，而 17 年為 0.5%。同時，我們保持了強勁的資產負債表。即使我們排除 17 和 18 年 ePresse 有聲書對法國內容供應的影響，收入成長和調整後 EBITDA 的加速仍然是現實。資本支出為 74 億歐元，符合我們的指引。換句話說，我們的淨負債與電信調整後的 EBITDA 比率增加至 1.93 倍，這反映了我們的投資努力，當然，我們對該比率保持在 2 左右的目標。關於2018財年的股息，我們將提議70%——對不起，每股0.70歐元，比前一年增加0.05歐元，我們在今年6月6日償還了餘額0.40歐元。正如您所看到的，我們 2018 年指導的所有組成部分都已實現。基本上，這就是我們對這組結果非常滿意的原因。

Let me now hand over to Ramon, who will provide you with more details on those results. Ramon?

現在讓我將時間交給拉蒙，他將為您提供有關這些結果的更多詳細資訊。拉蒙？

Good morning. So as Stéphane said 2018 was a year of acceleration for revenues, EBITDA and operating cash flow. In Q4, our group revenues increased by EUR 148 million, which is an increase of 1.4% year-on-year. And as Stéphane just said the ePresse audio book effect became a headwind in the last quarter. It will also be a headwind going forward because the trial offer closed in January 2019. Excluding this impact, Q4 revenue growth would have been at 1.6%, as you can see on this chart, representing a strong improvement compared to the previous quarters, thanks to a solid operational performance in all our geographies.

早安.正如 Stéphane 所說，2018 年是營收、EBITDA 和營運現金流加速成長的一年。第四季度，我們集團營收增加1.48億歐元，年增1.4%。正如 Stéphane 剛才所說，ePresse 有聲書效應在上個季度成為了阻力。由於試用報價已於 2019 年 1 月結束，因此這也將是未來的阻力。排除這一影響，第四季度營收成長將為 1.6%，正如您在該圖表中看到的那樣，由於我們所有地區的穩健營運業績，與前幾季相比有了強勁的進步。

In 2018, Africa and Middle East provided almost half of group revenue growth with 5.1% growth, a trend driven by mobile data and mobile finance services. The Europe segment showed an accelerated momentum, thanks to the success of our convergent offers, our innovative mobile offers in Belgium and our turnaround in Poland, going back to growth for the first time in 12 years. France grew revenues on a full year basis for the second consecutive year. Enterprise revenues showed resilience with cloud and security services posting double-digit growth in 2018. And wholesale business was back to growth in Q4 at plus 3.4% with positive contribution from FTTH rollout in France and the end of the European roaming impact.

2018年，非洲和中東地區貢獻了集團收入成長的近一半，成長率為5.1%，這一趨勢是由行動數據和行動金融服務所推動的。由於我們的融合產品、比利時創新移動產品以及波蘭的轉虧為盈，歐洲業務呈現出加速成長的勢頭，12 年來首次恢復成長。法國全年收入連續第二年成長。企業收入表現出彈性，雲端和安全服務在 2018 年實現兩位數成長。由於法國 FTTH 的推出以及歐洲漫遊影響的結束，批發業務在第四季度恢復了 3.4% 的成長。

Going to the next slide on EBITDA. And looking at the adjusted EBITDA of telecom activities, Q4 grew by 2.6%. This is an increase of EUR 84 million. In Q4, excluding the impact of the ePresse audio books, adjusted EBITDA would have accelerated to a plus 2.8% on telecom activities versus 2.2% in Q3. The full year 2018 adjusted EBITDA growth was driven by the outstanding performance of Spain, plus 8.4%; France, 2.9%; and Middle East and Africa, plus 5.2%.

轉到下一張關於 EBITDA 的幻燈片。從電信業務調整後的 EBITDA 來看，第四季成長了 2.6%。增加了 8400 萬歐元。第四季度，排除 ePresse 有聲書的影響，電信活動調整後的 EBITDA 將加速至 2.8%，而第三季為 2.2%。2018年全年調整後EBITDA成長得益於西班牙的優異表現，成長8.4%；法國，2.9%；中東和非洲，增加 5.2%。

Our cost efficiency plan gave us the flexibility to maintain our commercial efforts to continue to enrich our content portfolio, supporting our performance in 2018. We continued also our efforts on other costs such as labor costs, maybe in France and Poland with group full-time equivalent employees decreasing by 2.6% in 2018 for telecom activities. This is at group level 2.5%.

我們的成本效率計劃使我們能夠靈活地維持我們的商業努力，繼續豐富我們的內容組合，以支持我們 2018 年的表現。我們也持續努力降低勞動成本等其他成本，可能在法國和波蘭，2018 年電信活動的集團全職員工減少了 2.6%。這是集團層面的 2.5%。

Now let's look at the impact of our cost-efficiency plan, which along with the positive revenue trend helped fuel the EBITDA margin increase of plus 0.6 point in 2018.

現在讓我們看看我們的成本效率計劃的影響，該計劃與積極的收入趨勢一起幫助推動 2018 年 EBITDA 利潤率增長了 0.6 個百分點。

Next slide on the efficiency cost plan. You know we had a target of EUR 3 billion gross savings over the period 2015, 2018 when, in fact, we have exceeded our target by EUR 500 million, and we reached EUR 3.5 billion in savings over 2015, 2018. I will look first at OpEx and then at CapEx.

下一張投影片介紹效率成本計畫。您知道，我們的目標是在 2015 年和 2018 年期間實現總節省 30 億歐元，事實上，我們已經超出了目標 5 億歐元，在 2015 年和 2018 年期間實現了 35 億歐元的節省。我將首先關注營運支出，然後關注資本支出。

On OpEx, the main areas of contribution to savings over the period were network, customer management, distribution and IT. And as you can see on this slide, all geographies contributed to the savings generated by the program. Our efficiency program had a strong focus on customer satisfaction and simplification with digitalization as a key lever and translated in key operational achievements. One of the main areas of our program was the improvement of customer care, thanks to digitalization, which is now reaching a rate of 52% of digital interaction in Europe, thanks also to process simplification. Over 2015, 2018, we reduced the call rate by 1/3 in Europe. Of course, when I took off Europe, it includes France and Spain. We reduced the cost of customer care to revenue ratio in Europe, for instance, by 1.3 point in France, by 1 point in Spain while keeping a strong focus on customer satisfaction. This came along with a more efficient and a digitalized distribution channel, where we optimized the number of points of sales by 20% while at the same time modernizing our shops and including new services. These initiatives also reduced commission charges, allowing a decrease of 1.5 point in the cost of sales to revenue ratio in France over 2015, 2018.

在營運支出方面，在此期間節省的主要領域是網路、客戶管理、分銷和 IT。正如您在這張投影片上看到的，所有地區都為該計劃產生的節省做出了貢獻。我們的效率計劃重點關注客戶滿意度和數位化為關鍵槓桿的簡化，並轉化為關鍵營運成就。我們計劃的主要領域之一是透過數位化改善客戶服務，由於流程簡化，目前歐洲的數位互動率已達到 52%。2015年、2018年，我們將歐洲的通話費率降低了1/3。當然，當我離開歐洲時，它包括法國和西班牙。我們在歐洲降低了客戶服務成本與收入的比率，例如，在法國降低了 1.3 個百分點，在西班牙降低了 1 個百分點，同時高度重視客戶滿意度。同時，我們也建立了更有效率、數位化的分銷管道，將銷售點數量優化了 20%，同時對我們的商店進行現代化改造並提供新服務。這些措施也降低了佣金費用，使法國的銷售成本與收入之比 2015 年和 2018 年下降了 1.5 個百分點。

On the network side, the key drivers were digitalization, simplification and pooling. For example, mobile run and infrastructure sharing increased from 49% to 54% over the 2015, 2018 period with significant savings in Poland and Romania. We also increased our fixed network sharing in Spain. One of the outcomes of these efforts is that the intervention intensity per technical people increased, for example in France by 11%, while customer satisfaction remained high. As part of our IT transformation program, we made significant progress in the modernization of our IT solutions and tools with a significant increase in the number of use cases of Big Data; deconsolidation of data centers, their number decreased by 7% since 2015; the streamlining of our internal applications, we're down by 12% in France; and also the implementation of agile organizations.

在網路方面，關鍵驅動因素是數位化、簡化和池化。例如，2015 年和 2018 年期間，行動運作和基礎設施共享從 49% 增加到 54%，其中波蘭和羅馬尼亞節省了大量成本。我們還增加了西班牙的固定網路共享。這些努力的成果之一是每位技術人員的介入強度增加了，例如在法國增加了 11%，而客戶滿意度仍然很高。作為 IT​​ 轉型計劃的一部分，我們在 IT 解決方案和工具的現代化方面取得了重大進展，大數據用例數量顯著增加；資料中心的拆分，其數量自 2015 年以來減少了 7%；由於內部應用程式的精簡，我們在法國的業務下降了 12%；以及敏捷組織的實施。

As announced at our last Investor Day in December 2017 in London, we launched another efficiency program with a target of EUR 1 billion in OpEx savings over 2019, 2020.

正如 2017 年 12 月在倫敦舉行的上一次投資者日宣布的那樣，我們啟動了另一項效率計劃，目標是在 2019 年和 2020 年期間節省 10 億歐元的營運支出。

Second, on CapEx. You know that we launched, in 2017, a lean CapEx program which aimed at reducing unitary costs by 15% compared to 2017 baseline. This is again an objective of EUR 1 billion in 2020, part of which will be reinvested to consolidate our network leadership. Some major initiatives have already been launched such as a unique Internet box for all our European countries that will deliver more than EUR 100 million of unitary cost reduction by 2020. Together, with the optimization of TV set of box production, delivering another EUR 200 million unitary cost reduction by 2020. Another area of opportunities is the design of fiber rollout process in Europe, where we leverage on each country's best practices. For example, we are empowering subcontractors, developing further a turnkey model, allowing economies of scale and scope. This should create around EUR 200 million unitary cost savings by 2020.

其次，關於資本支出。您知道，我們在 2017 年推出了一項精益資本支出計劃，旨在與 2017 年基線相比將單一成本降低 15%。這也是 2020 年 10 億歐元的目標，其中一部分將用於再投資，以鞏固我們的網路領導地位。一些重大措施已經啟動，例如為所有歐洲國家提供獨特的網路盒，到 2020 年將減少超過 1 億歐元的單一成本。加上電視機盒生產的優化，到 2020 年再減少 2 億歐元的單一成本。另一個機會領域是歐洲光纖推廣流程的設計，我們利用每個國家的最佳實踐。例如，我們正在授權分包商，進一步開發統包模式，以實現規模經濟和範圍經濟。到 2020 年，這將節省約 2 億歐元的單一成本。

Now looking at operating cash flow, and this is the next slide. Thanks to this top line growth and our ongoing efforts on costs, and despite growing investment, especially in FTTH, the group operating cash flow accelerated in 2018 with an increase of 1.7% compared to 0.5% in 2017. As we have already said operating cash flow and operating return on capital employed, ROCE are a priority for management. In 2018, our telecom operating wholesale grew by 0.6 point compared to 2017, meaning that we delivered on all our financial targets announced at our Investor Day.

現在來看看經營現金流，這是下一張投影片。由於收入的成長和我們在成本方面的持續努力，儘管投資不斷增長，尤其是在 FTTH 方面，集團營運現金流在 2018 年加速成長，與 2017 年的 0.5% 相比成長了 1.7%。正如我們已經說過的，營運現金流和已使用資本營運回報率，ROCE 是管理層的首要任務。2018 年，我們的電信營運批發業務較 2017 年成長了 0.6 個百分點，這意味著我們實現了投資者日宣布的所有財務目標。

This performance led to a consolidated net income of EUR 2.2 billion that grew by 5.8%. This is mainly the result of a better adjusted EBITDA as well a better reported EBITDA, despite a charge of EUR 669 million related to a new senior part-time program signed in 2018 related to the period 2022, 2024. Thanks also to less impairments in 2018 than in 2017 and to less depreciation of BT shares that have impacted 2017. Those positive effects have been partly compensated by the reversal effect of the tax income we received in 2017 related to the court ruling over the 3% tax on dividends.

這一業績使得綜合淨利潤達到 22 億歐元，成長 5.8%。這主要是由於調整後的 EBITDA 以及報告的 EBITDA 更好，儘管 2018 年簽署的與 2022 年和 2024 年期間相關的新高級兼職計劃產生了 6.69 億歐元的費用。這也要歸功於 2018 年的減損準備少於 2017 年，以及對 2017 年產生影響的英國電信股票貶值幅度較小。這些正面影響已被我們 2017 年收到的與法院裁定徵收 3% 股利稅相關的稅收收入的逆轉效應所部分補償。

Turning to Slide 14. In 2018, EBITDA growth enabled us to maintain a leverage at 1.93x, fully in line with our guidance. In 2018, our net debt at EUR 25.4 billion increased versus 2017 as a result of our strategy of investments in FTTH 4G and also selective M&A transactions, essentially the acquisition of Basefarm and Business & Decision. Our solid balance sheet enabled us to both step up our investments and also to meet our dividend guidance with the proposal of a further increase of EUR 0.05 for 2018.

轉到投影片 14。2018 年，EBITDA 成長使我們能夠將槓桿率維持在 1.93 倍，完全符合我們的指引。2018 年，由於我們對 FTTH 4G 的投資策略以及選擇性併購交易（主要是收購 Basefarm 和 Business & Decision），我們的淨債務較 2017 年增加了 254 億歐元。我們穩健的資產負債表使我們能夠加強投資力度，並滿足我們的股息指引，建議 2018 年進一步增加 0.05 歐元。

Our liquidity position remained strong with EUR 14 billion at the end of December of which EUR 7.8 billion in cash. And in January of this year, in accordance with our active and opportunistic liquidity management, we issued a multi-tranche bond for the equivalent of EUR 4 billion, covering the majority of the 2019 debt repayments.

截至 12 月底，我們的流動性狀況依然強勁，為 140 億歐元，其中現金為 78 億歐元。今年1月，根據我們積極、機會主義的流動性管理，我們發行了等值40億歐元的多期債券，涵蓋了2019年大部分債務償還。

Now let's look at our business review, our operations. Starting with France on Slide 16. In the context of strong promotional intensity in Q4, Orange registered a very resilient total revenue growth plus 0.1%. If we exclude the ePresse audio book effect, revenues accelerated to plus 0.5%. It was around 0. It was even minus 0.1% in Q3. Retail services, excluding PSTN, grew at 0.8% after plus 5% in Q3 of 2018. Convergent services revenue grew by 4.6%, thanks to the growth of the convergent customer base at 2.6%. And to the growth of our convergent ARPO, which stood at EUR 65.5 per month. This is an increase of EUR 0.40 year-on-year. Both mobile only and broadband only ARPOs decreased, mainly because of the migration effect to convergence, which resulted in a higher Sosh mix and also because of limited promotions. Equipment sales revenues decreased to minus 3.4% after plus 2.6% in Q3, impacted partially by lower-than-expected volumes in high-end smartphones, essentially because of a negative phasing effect this year with the commercial launch in Q3 2018 versus Q4 last year. Wholesale revenue grew at plus 2.8%, thanks to growth, both in mobile and fixed. Mobile wholesale revenues grew despite the negative impact of national roaming, thanks to the price elasticity of visitor roaming and MVNO revenues. Fixed and other revenues grew as well, driven by the FTTH rollout, notably in the PIN area.

現在讓我們看看我們的業務回顧和營運。從幻燈片 16 上的法國開始。在第四季促銷力度強勁的背景下，Orange 的總營收成長非常有彈性，成長了 0.1%。如果我們排除 ePresse 有聲書的影響，收入將加速增加 0.5%。約為 0。零售服務（不包括 PSTN）繼 2018 年第三季成長 5% 後成長 0.8%。得益於融合客戶群成長 2.6%，融合服務收入成長了 4.6%。還有我們的聚合 ARPO 的成長，達到每月 65.5 歐元。年增 0.40 歐元。純行動和純寬頻 ARPO 均有所下降，主要是因為融合的遷移效應導致更高的 Sosh 組合，同時也是因為促銷活動有限。設備銷售收入在第三季成長2.6% 後下降至負3.4%，部分原因是高階智慧型手機銷量低於預期，這主要是因為今年2018 年第三季的商業發布與去年第四季相比產生了負面的階段性影響。由於行動和固定業務的成長，批發收入成長了 2.8%。儘管受到全國漫遊的負面影響，但由於訪客漫遊和虛擬網路營運商收入的價格彈性，行動批發收入仍然增長。在 FTTH 推出的推動下，固定收入和其他收入也有所成長，特別是在 PIN 領域。

As a result, France posted an adjusted EBITDA growth of 1% in H2 and 2.9% full year. All the digitalization efforts that we have been making in France also made us more agile, allowing us to absorb the decrease of average full-time equivalent employees by 6% at the end of 2018.

因此，法國下半年調整後 EBITDA 成長 1%，全年成長 2.9%。我們在法國所做的所有數位化努力也讓我們變得更加敏捷，使我們能夠承受 2018 年底平均全職員工減少 6% 的影響。

Turning to the commercial performance in France. This was another quarter with intense levels of promotional activities in both fixed and mobile. However, promotional price points increased slightly compared to Q3, while our 3 competitors offered plans with lifetime discount prices. In this context, we adapted our offers in Q3 with more flexibility, more services, allowing us to post a very resilient performance in Q4.

談到在法國的商業演出。這是固定和行動促銷活動頻繁的另一個季度。然而，與第三季相比，促銷價格點略有增加，而我們的 3 個競爭對手提供了終身折扣價格的計劃。在這種背景下，我們在第三季調整了我們的報價，提供了更多的靈活性和更多的服務，使我們能夠在第四季度發布非常有彈性的業績。

On mobile, we recorded plus 111,000 contract net adds with balanced contribution from both Orange and Sosh. On the year-on-year basis, we stabilized mobile churn, which is quite a performance in this price environment. And we improved the premium customer mix by 1.9 point. On the fixed, we recorded 71,000 broadband net adds, thanks to fiber with 186,000 net adds, a record quarter. 46% of which were new customers, leading to a total base of 2.6 million fiber customers, reflecting the fact that we are now covering a larger area with 11.8 million connectable homes, and we're back to a #1 position in the broadband market share in the Paris region, for instance. This good performance is also due to the success of Sosh. The Sosh dual-play broadband offer, which strengthens our presence in the low end of the fixed market.

在行動端，我們記錄了超過 111,000 份合約淨增加，其中 Orange 和 Sosh 的貢獻均衡。與去年同期相比，我們穩定了行動客戶流失率，這在這個價格環境下是相當不錯的表現。我們將優質客戶結構提高了 1.9 個百分點。在固定網路方面，我們記錄了 71,000 個寬頻淨增加量，這要歸功於光纖淨增加量 186,000 個，這是一個創紀錄的季度。其中 46% 是新客戶，光纖客戶總數達到 260 萬，反映出我們現在覆蓋了更大的區域，擁有 1180 萬個可連接的家庭，我們又回到了寬頻市場第一的位置例如，巴黎地區的份額。如此好的表現也是得益於索許的成功。Sosh 雙播放寬頻產品增強了我們在低階固定市場的地位。

Turning to Spain. In this country, total revenue grew by 2.4% this quarter. Supported by the stabilization of retail revenues, thanks to a 1.9% growth in convergent revenues, thanks also to a recovery in equipment revenues at plus 0.5%. It was minus 2.1% in Q3, and also to an increase in international traffic that contributed to an 18% wholesale revenues increase.

轉向西班牙。該國本季總收入增長了 2.4%。受到零售收入穩定的支撐，得益於融合收入成長 1.9%，同時也得益於設備收入復甦+0.5%。第三季為負 2.1%，國際流量的增加也導致批發收入成長 18%。

With 19,000 fixed broadband net adds, Q4 confirmed in Spain the return to growth that we witnessed in Q3, thanks to first strong growth in our football customer base coming both from new acquisitions and customer upsell, leading to a 14% growth in the TV customer base. And second, thanks to the continued success of our fiber offers. With 162,000 net sales this quarter, Orange should maintain the leadership in conquest share for the 10th quarter in a row. Mobile remains under pressure in a market that's becoming more competitive. Contract net adds in Spain were negative at minus 37,000 this quarter, yet the churn rate improved on a year-on-year basis. The execution of our value strategy along with the focus on the cost efficiency allowed us to reach an 8.4% EBITDA growth over the full year, outperforming the market once again. The adjusted EBITDA margin also improved by 1.8 point, reaching 31.8% in full year. Just remember that when we launched the acquisition of Jazztel in 2014, the margin rate was below 25%. We are now close to 32%.

第四季固定寬頻網路新增 19,000 戶，西班牙確認了我們在第三季見證的成長回歸，這要歸功於新收購和客戶追加銷售帶來的足球客戶群首次強勁成長，電視客戶成長了 14%根據。其次，得益於我們的纖維產品的持續成功。Orange 本季淨銷量為 162,000 輛，預計將連續第 10 個季度保持市場份額領先地位。在競爭日益激烈的市場中，行動業務仍面臨壓力。本季西班牙的合約淨增量為負數，為負 37,000 份，但客戶流失率較去年同期有所改善。我們價值策略的執行以及對成本效率的關注使我們全年的 EBITDA 成長了 8.4%，再次跑贏市場。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率也提高了 1.8 個百分點，全年達到 31.8%。請記住，當我們在 2014 年發起收購 Jazztel 時，保證金率低於 25%。我們現在接近 32%。

Last, in Spain, CapEx was almost as stable in 2018 at plus 0.4%, leading to an impressive full year growth in operating cash flow at 28%.

最後，在西班牙，2018 年資本支出幾乎保持穩定，成長 0.4%，導致全年營運現金流成長 28%，令人印象深刻。

Let's now turn to the other European countries, to the Europe segment where total revenues grew by 2.8% this quarter, supported by an ongoing positive momentum in retail services, up 2.7% in Q4 versus plus 2.6% in Q3 and 1.6% in H1. This momentum in retail services reflects our ongoing focus on convergence with revenues from convergence, which are currently 15% of our retail services, maintaining a strong 46% growth rate. Our focus on convergence was also visible in our commercial performance with both stronger mobile contract net adds at plus 163,000 this quarter. It was less than 100,000 the previous quarter. Thanks also to a stronger fixed-broadband net adds at 87,000 compared to 70,000 the previous quarter. Both outcomes are supported by steady improvement in the share of convergent contracts.

現在讓我們轉向其他歐洲國家，歐洲部分在零售服務持續積極勢頭的支持下，本季總收入增長了 2.8%，第四季度增長 2.7%，而第三季度增長 2.6%，上半年增長 1.6%。零售服務的這一勢頭反映了我們對整合的持續關注，融合帶來的收入目前占我們零售服務的15%，並保持著46%的強勁成長率。我們對融合的關注也體現在我們的商業業績中，本季移動合約淨增量增加了 163,000 個。上一季不到 10 萬。這也得益於固定寬頻淨增 87,000 戶，而上一季為 70,000 戶。這兩個結果都得到了趨同合約份額的穩定提高的支持。

From a country perspective, we are reporting a second consecutive quarter of revenue growth in Poland at 2.1%. Beyond the continuing success of convergence in this country, the key drivers for the turnaround were an improvement in non-convergent mobile services, better equipment sales and stronger performance in IT and integration services. This, indeed, represents a new, a very encouraging milestone, which supports Orange Poland turnaround ambition. Once again, for the first time in 12 years, Poland is back to growth. Our revenue performance in Belgium and Luxembourg at Orange Belgium is also worth noting, with a stronger growth up 5.1% this quarter. It was 1.9% in Q3 and 0.9% in H1, mainly driven by an acceleration in mobile contract net adds supported by unlimited mobile offers in convergence. So very good, also, performance in Belgium. And if you look at profitability, the trend in adjusted EBITDA improved significantly to 9.9% in H2 compared to minus 2.8% in H1. This improvement came as a result of both better revenues and also a better OpEx trend. And this was particularly the case in Poland, once again, where Orange Polska accounts in 2018 showed, for the first time, also growing adjusted EBITDA, exceeding its guidance of stabilization in 2018.

從國家角度來看，我們報告波蘭的營收連續第二季成長 2.1%。除了融合在該國持續取得成功之外，實現扭虧為盈的關鍵驅動力還包括非融合行動服務的改善、設備銷售的改善以及 IT 和整合服務的強勁表現。這確實代表了一個新的、非常令人鼓舞的里程碑，支持了 Orange Polish 扭虧為盈的雄心壯志。波蘭 12 年來首次恢復成長。Orange Belize 在比利時和盧森堡的營收表現也值得注意，本季成長強勁，成長 5.1%。第三季為 1.9%，上半年為 0.9%，主要是由於融合中無限行動優惠的支持，行動合約淨增加加速。在比利時的表現也非常好。如果你看一下獲利能力，下半年調整後 EBITDA 的趨勢顯著改善至 9.9%，而上半年為負 2.8%。這種改善是收入增加和營運支出趨勢改善的結果。波蘭的情況尤其如此，Orange Polska 2018 年的帳目首次顯示調整後 EBITDA 也在成長，超過了 2018 年的穩定指引。

Let's turn now to Africa and Middle East, which continued its growth momentum with revenue increasing by 5.2% in Q4 and accelerating in the full year at 5.1% growth. This solid growth was driven by the solid underlying trend in retail activities, fueled by data monetization, Orange Money. We now have, on data, close to 17 million clients on 4G, 16.7 million to be precise. And also thanks to abundance offers that made the voice-negative trend improve significantly since the beginning of the year. Most countries in the region grew in Q4. The new operations, including DLC, contributed to 1/3 of the growth with booking efforts also in DLC growing by more than 14% and more than 13%. Egypt and Morocco reported also high growth rates at plus 8.7% and plus 4.1% in Q4. And Ivory Coast is recovering from the difficulties that we encountered in Q2, following QIC regulation and the fire we had in a major center. And this helped to come back to a positive territory with a plus 1.8% growth in Q4 compared to a full year for Ivory Coast of minus 0.2%. In Africa and Middle East, as a result, the EBITDA grew by 5.2%, and this get us to a stabilized margin rate of 32.1%.

現在讓我們來看看非洲和中東地區，該地區繼續保持成長勢頭，第四季度營收成長 5.2%，全年加速成長 5.1%。這種穩健的成長是由數據貨幣化、Orange Money 推動的零售活動穩固的基本趨勢所推動的。從數據來看，我們現在有近 1,700 萬 4G 客戶，確切地說是 1,670 萬人。也得益於豐富的優惠，使得年初以來聲音負面的趨勢明顯改善。該地區大多數國家第四季均出現成長。包括 DLC 在內的新業務貢獻了 1/3 的成長，其中 DLC 的預訂量也成長了 14% 以上和 13% 以上。埃及和摩洛哥第四季的成長率也很高，分別為 8.7% 和 4.1%。在 QIC 監管和一個主要中心發生的火災之後，科特迪瓦正在從第二季度遇到的困難中恢復過來。這有助於恢復正值，第四季成長 1.8%，而科特迪瓦全年成長率為負 0.2%。在非洲和中東，EBITDA 成長了 5.2%，這使我們的利潤率穩定在 32.1%。

Enterprise. So on enterprise, Q4 revenues increased by 1.2% and nearly stabilized on a full year at minus 0.2%. The IT and integration services kept its growth trajectory at 4.9% in Q4. It was fueled by the double-digit growth trend of CyberDefense at plus 12% and cloud business at plus 10% in the full year. Mobile underlying trend stabilized and grew at 2.5% in Q4. Legacy services are still under pressure with voice decreasing by 4.8% and data slightly increasing by 0.1% in Q4. And as already said, we had acquisitions supporting this growth with Basefarm Business & Decision. And also, we're floating that as part of this strategic move towards IT and integration services, we won major contracts such as the biggest IOT deployment contract in the LoRa network in France signed with Veolia. The deployment of video conference and telepresence solutions for L'Oreal with a specific one. And a significant one management and synchronization contract signed with Enedis.

企業。就企業而言，第四季營收成長了 1.2%，全年幾乎穩定在負 0.2%。IT 和整合服務在第四季維持 4.9% 的成長軌跡。全年 Cyber​​Defense 成長 12%，雲端業務成長 10%，兩位數的成長趨勢推動了這一成長。行動基礎趨勢穩定，第四季成長 2.5%。傳統服務仍面臨壓力，第四季語音下降 4.8%，數據小幅成長 0.1%。正如已經說過的，我們透過 Basefarm Business & Decision 進行了收購來支持這種成長。此外，我們還透露，作為向 IT 和整合服務戰略邁進的一部分，我們贏得了重大合同，例如與威立雅簽署的法國 LoRa 網路中最大的物聯網部署合約。視訊會議和遠端呈現解決方案的部署是歐萊雅的一個特定解決方案。並與 Enedis 簽署了一份重要的管理和同步合約。

In 2018, we also confirmed our leading position in SDWAN as illustrated by the major contract we signed with Siemens this year, amounting to EUR 240 million.

2018年，我們也確認了在SDWAN領域的領先地位，今年我們與西門子簽署了價值2.4億歐元的大合約。

Now I'm going to hand over to Stéphane for the guidance, but just before this, I will just briefly summarize how our IFRS 16 and new performance indicators will apply to Orange. Full details were presented 3 few weeks ago in an analyst education session, which is accessible on our corporate website in a replay mode. So all those who want to have all the details can go to this website.

現在我將向 Stéphane 尋求指導，但在此之前，我將簡要總結我們的 IFRS 16 和新績效指標將如何應用於 Orange。完整的詳細資訊已在三週前的分析師教育會議上介紹，您可以在我們的公司網站上以重播模式訪問該會議。因此，所有想要了解所有詳細資訊的人都可以訪問該網站。

First, we are moving from adjusted EBITDA to EBITDA after IFRS 16 release. This will be EBITDAaL for short, EBITDA after lease. Second, in order to monitor our business closer to cash, we are updating our investment indicator. The uptake of fiber in France has steered us towards a model that incorporates the rotation of some assets. For example, the fiber segment connecting the building connecting points to the premises of the customer. We have, therefore, decided to restate our CapEx from sale of these rotating assets and an indicator that we are now calling economic CapEx or eCAPEX for short, which also extends for the sake of consistency to all asset classes such as real estate. As a result, operating cash flow is now EBITDAaL minus economic CapEx.

首先，在 IFRS 16 發布後，我們將從調整後的 EBITDA 轉向 EBITDA。這將簡稱為 EBITDAaL，即租賃後的 EBITDA。其次，為了更接近現金地監控我們的業務，我們正在更新我們的投資指標。法國對纖維的採用引導我們採用了一個包含某些資產輪換的模型。例如，將建築物連接點連接到客戶場所的光纖段。因此，我們決定重新表述出售這些輪調資產的資本支出，以及我們現在簡稱為經濟資本支出或 eCAPEX 的指標，為了保持一致性，該指標也擴展到房地產等所有資產類別。因此，經營現金流現在是 EBITDAaL 減去經濟資本支出。

Lastly, for leverage, we are moving from a net debt to telecom adjusted EBITDA to net debt excluding IFRS lease to telecom EBITDAaL look. Combining all these changes, we estimate, as you can see on this Slide 23, the difference between pro forma 2018 EBITDAaL and 2018 adjusted EBITDA at around minus EUR 300 million. We estimate the difference between pro forma 2018 eCAPEX and 2018 reported CapEx at around minus EUR 200 million. Of course, our guidance on peak CapEx in 2018 will apply to this new indicator, i.e., a reference of around EUR 7.2 billion. The difference between the pro forma 2018 operating cash flow and the 2018 reported operating cash flow is therefore around minus EUR 100 million, with absolutely no impact on free cash flow. And furthermore, there is no significant value difference between the pro forma 2018 leverage ratio and the reported 2018 ratio.

最後，對於槓桿率，我們正在從淨債務轉向電信調整後的 EBITDA，再轉向不包括 IFRS 租賃的淨債務，再轉向電信 EBITDAaL。結合所有這些變化，我們估計，正如您在幻燈片 23 中看到的那樣，預計 2018 年 EBITDAaL 與 2018 年調整後 EBITDA 之間的差異約為負 3 億歐元。我們估計預計 2018 年 eCAPEX 與 2018 年報告的資本支出之間的差異約為負 2 億歐元。當然，我們對 2018 年資本支出高峰的指引將適用於此新指標，即約 72 億歐元的參考值。因此，預計 2018 年營運現金流與 2018 年報告的營運現金流之間的差異約為負 1 億歐元，對自由現金流絕對沒有影響。此外，預計2018年槓桿率與報告的2018年槓桿率之間不存在重大價值差異。

With this in mind, let me now turn back to Stéphane for the 2019 guidance.

考慮到這一點，現在讓我回頭向 Stéphane 尋求 2019 年的指導。

So let's talk a little bit about 2019. Well, clearly, thanks to the very solid performance that we achieved in 2018. We reiterate the group guidance for 2019, which we provided during our December 27 Investor Day, and that we will now express under IFRS 16. What does that mean? It means that first, we expect EBITDA after lease to continue to grow in 2019. Of course, if we take into account the 2018 benefit of the ePresse audio book offers that we won't have in 2019, we expect only a slight growth for this EBITDA after lease in 2019. But still a growth.

那麼就讓我們來談談2019年吧。顯然，這要歸功於我們在 2018 年取得的非常出色的表現。我們重申我們在 12 月 27 日投資者日期間提供的 2019 年集團指引，現在我們將根據 IFRS 16 予以表達。這意味著什麼？這意味著，首先，我們預計 2019 年租賃後 EBITDA 將持續成長。當然，如果我們考慮到 2018 年 ePresse 有聲書帶來的收益（2019 年不會有），我們預計 2019 年租賃後的 EBITDA 只會小幅增長。但還是有成長。

Secondly, economic CapEx will, as promised, start to decrease in 2019. Thirdly, operating cash flow is set to continue to growth -- to grow on 2019. Fourth, the ratio of net debt to telecom EBITDA after lease will stay around 2. And finally, regarding the dividend policy. The figure of EUR 0.70 per share should be considered as a floor. And by the way, this amount provides a very attractive yield for the share of over 5%. We will set the final amount of the dividend based on actual 2019 results and future outlook. In the meantime, we will pay EUR 0.30 interim dividend in December 2019. And finally, regarding our M&A policy, we confirm our selective approach aimed at strengthening our existing footprints in our core telco business and supporting Orange's diversification into new services.

其次，經濟資本支出將依照承諾在 2019 年開始下降。第三，經營現金流將持續成長－2019年將持續成長。第四，租賃後淨負債與電信EBITDA的比率將維持在2左右。每股 0.70 歐元的數字應被視為下限。順便說一句，這個金額對於超過 5% 的份額來說提供了非常有吸引力的收益率。我們將根據2019年實際業績和未來展望來確定最終股利金額。同時，我們將於2019年12月支付0.30歐元的中期股利。最後，關於我們的併購政策，我們確認了我們的選擇性方法，旨在加強我們在核心電信業務中的現有足跡，並支持 Orange 向新服務領域多元化。

Thanks for your attention, and now we are available for your questions.

感謝您的關注，現在我們可以回答您的問題。

Nicolas Cote-Colisson from HSBC. Sorry to insist on the dividend, but you just mentioned the floor. So I'm just wondering what is required to get to a higher level of distribution for this year? And secondly, on the French mobile premium market, I was wondering if you have adjusted any change in the acquisition and retention costs lately in Q4, and how do you see your handset subsidy policy evolving in 2019?

來自匯豐銀行的尼古拉斯·科特-科利森。抱歉堅持股息，但你剛才提到了下限。所以我只是想知道今年要達到更高的發行水準需要什麼？其次，關於法國行動高端市場，我想知道您是否在第四季度調整了最近的獲取和保留成本的變化，以及您如何看待2019年手機補貼政策的演變？

Well, regarding the dividends, in my view, there is no so much change between what we say today and what we have said previously. I think it's a very important announcement and commitment to deliver a EUR 0.70 floor as a dividend. And it's a clear evidence of the confidence and the trust that we have in our capacity to deliver the performance for this year of 2019. The maybe only, I would not say, change. It's a wording adjustment, I would say, is that we have probably a little less visibility, say in the markets and the environments of our markets for the next month and the next quarters. And so we want to give you a rendezvous after this year of 2019 where we will see how, especially the big -- the 2 big markets where we operate, France and Spain, will perform in order to set the final amount. So to say EUR 0.70 is a floor to me is a very important and big commitment of the company and of the management and of the board. And then let's take into account also the -- some uncertainties that we have in our global environment to say that in the beginning of 2020 or end of 2019, we will make the final decision in order to set the dividend. Now for the French market, I will ask Fabienne, of course, to provide answers.

那麼關於分紅，我覺得我們今天講的和以前講的沒有太大的變化。我認為這是一項非常重要的公告和承諾，將提供 0.70 歐元的股息下限。這清楚地表明了我們對 2019 年業績的信心和信任。我不會說，也許唯一的改變。我想說，這是一個措辭調整，我們的能見度可能會稍低一些，例如下個月和下幾個季度的市場和市場環境。因此，我們希望在 2019 年之後為您提供一個會面，我們將了解我們營運的兩大市場（法國和西班牙）的表現如何，以便確定最終金額。所以說 0.70 歐元對我來說是一個底線，這是公司、管理階層和董事會的一個非常重要和重大的承諾。然後，讓我們考慮到全球環境中存在的一些不確定性，我們將在 2020 年初或 2019 年底做出最終決定，以設定股利。現在對於法國市場，我當然會請Fabienne提供答案。

Yes, for the mobile, your question is about the acquisition cost on the Q4. There is no impact, and there is no change in the strategy we have to acquire on the mobile. Even if -- and despite -- if the market is very competitive, especially on the mobile, there is an explanation, and we don't move the cost acquisition because the strategy we have is supported by convergent. So the growth we record on the mobile is supported by convergence strategy. More and more customers make the choice of convergence, especially in the mobile, that help us to improve the customer mix on mobile. And that help us to develop the proliferation second-line mobile in household. So we have no more cost acquisition. And we will pursue this strategy. So we think we have no impact even in the handset and on the accessory as you maybe think about it.

是的，對於行動設備，您的問題是關於 Q4 的購置成本。沒有影響，我們在行動領域的收購策略也沒有改變。即使——並且儘管——如果市場競爭非常激烈，特別是在行動領域，那就有一個解釋，我們不會改變成本採購，因為我們的策略得到了融合的支持。因此，我們在行動領域記錄的成長是由融合策略所支援的。越來越多的客戶選擇融合，特別是在行動領域，這有助於我們改善行動領域的客戶組合。這有助於我們開發家庭中二線手機的擴散。所以我們沒有更多的採購成本。我們將推行這項戰略。因此，我們認為，即使在手機和配件方面，我們也不會產生任何影響，正如您可能想到的那樣。

Next question. Maybe in London, if we don't have any question in Paris.

下一個問題。如果我們在巴黎沒有任何問題的話，也許會在倫敦。

(Operator Instructions) Our first telephone question comes from Frederic Boulan of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

（操作員說明）我們的第一通電話問題來自美銀美林的 Frederic Boulan。

Two please. First of all, if you could spend a moment on positioning in the French market, and your strategy here. You've been very active in the low end of the market, on Sosh in particular, still accounting for half of your additions. So can you explain a little bit on what you think in terms of pricing and ability to monetize your premium quality in 2019? And then secondly, just an annoying follow-up on the previous question on the dividend. But what you want to see in terms of financial performance in France and Spain to drive a decision to keep on increasing dividend by EUR 0.05 as you've done in last 2 or 3 years. Is it a question of, if you deliver from a revenue and EBITDA perspective in line with your expectations, you will increase? Or you want to see some specific milestones before you do that? So if you could help us a little bit frame how you look at this decision by the end of '19?

請兩位。首先，您能否花點時間介紹法國市場的定位以及您的策略。你們在低端市場非常活躍，特別是在 Sosh 上，仍然佔你們新增產品的一半。那麼您能否解釋一下您對 2019 年定價和將優質產品變現的能力的看法？其次，只是對上一個關於股利的問題的惱人的後續行動。但您希望看到法國和西班牙的財務業績，從而推動您決定繼續將股息增加 0.05 歐元，就像您在過去 2 或 3 年所做的那樣。問題是，如果從收入和 EBITDA 的角度來看，您的表現符合您的預期，您會增加嗎？或者您想在這樣做之前看到一些具體的里程碑？那麼，您是否可以幫助我們了解您如何看待 19 年底前的這項決定？

Fabienne, for the first question maybe?

Fabienne，也許是第一個問題？

Yes, in this market, we are the least player exposed to the low-end segment. Sosh represent only 20% of the mobile contract postpaid in the market were around 50%. We are less sensitive to the low-end market because the convergence strategy deliver exactly what we want. So it's why we are sustainable in the value and the volume strategy we deliver. You're right, Sosh is more and more important, significant, but in the same time, more and more customer make the choice of the convergent and, hence, the customer mix. Maybe one figure to share with you. During -- [2,200] during the last year, the customer mix -- the mobile customer mix improved 1.9, okay. The high-end customer mix improved by 1.9 point in one year, year-on-year. So even if the low-end market's more and more present, Orange maintain the strategy to present volume and value, and value, first of all, thanks to Orange.

是的，在這個市場上，我們是接觸低端市場最少的玩家。Sosh僅佔行動合約後付費市場的20%，市佔率約50%。我們對低階市場不太敏感，因為融合策略正是我們想要的。這就是為什麼我們所提供的價值和數量策略是可持續的。你是對的，Sosh 越來越重要、意義重大，但同時，越來越多的客戶做出融合的選擇，從而選擇客戶組合。也許有一個數字可以與您分享。去年 [2,200] 期間，客戶組合 - 行動客戶組合改善了 1.9，好吧。高端客戶結構一年內較去年同期改善1.9個百分點。所以即使低階市場越來越多，Orange仍然維持著量和價值呈現的策略，而價值首先要感謝Orange。

Okay. So maybe let's go back to the dividend. Well, first, I want you to take into account and to realize what means a floor of EUR 0.70. I mean to me it's -- once again, it's a very firm and very strong commitment of the company and of the management. And based on the current share price, it offers the yield of over 5%. So this is something in the current times of financial markets, which in my view is very valuable. And everyone should realize what it represents to commit in the beginning of a year, like we are today on this floor. Then regarding the dividend that we'll decide based on 2019 results. First, I want to still remind that the guidance that we provide in terms of revenue growth and EBITDA is still growth. So maybe slight growth, especially for EBITDA after this, but still growth. Once again, there is no difference or not so much difference between what we said previously regarding the dividend and what we say today. What we see is that clearly when we set the dividend, it's based on the year result but also on the future and on the outlooks that we have at the very moment when we set the dividend. Today, we estimate that the visibility in our main markets, and I mention especially France and Spain, is probably weaker, let's say, than visibility -- than what it was 1 year ago or 2 years ago. And this is basically the reason why we want to take this decision of keeping the same level of dividend or increase the dividend based on 2019 realization and, of course, the future estimates that we'll have at this time. I think everyone can understand this. Once again, it is a very strong commitment to say we will keep the level of dividend that we provide this year. We don't say that we will not grow the dividend. We will say that today, we want to have a better visibility on what we can achieve on 2019 and what will be, I mean our analysis of the outlooks of our operations later in this year or beginning of 2020 to make the final decision.

好的。那麼也許讓我們回到股息。首先，我希望您考慮並了解 0.70 歐元的下限意味著什麼。我的意思是，這再次是公司和管理階層非常堅定、非常有力的承諾。以目前股價計算，其收益率超過5%。所以這是當今金融市場時代的事情，我認為這是非常有價值的。每個人都應該意識到在年初做出承諾意味著什麼，就像我們今天在這個樓層一樣。然後關於股息，我們將根據2019年的業績來決定。首先，我仍然想提醒大家，我們在營收成長和 EBITDA 方面提供的指導仍然是成長。因此，可能會略有增長，尤其是此後的 EBITDA，但仍然會增長。再說一次，我們之前所說的關於股息的內容和我們今天所說的話沒有太大或沒有太大區別。我們清楚地看到，當我們設定股息時，它是基於年度業績，但也基於未來以及我們設定股息時的前景。今天，我們估計我們主要市場（我特別提到法國和西班牙）的能見度可能比一年前或兩年前的能見度要弱。這基本上就是我們想要根據 2019 年的實現情況以及我們目前對未來的估計做出保持相同水平股息或增加股息的決定的原因。我想每個人都能理解這一點。我們再次表示，我們將維持今年提供的股息水平，這是一個非常堅定的承諾。我們並不是說我們不會增加股利。我們今天會說，我們希望更好地了解 2019 年我們能實現什麼以及將會實現什麼，我的意思是我們對今年晚些時候或 2020 年初的營運前景進行分析，以做出最終決定。

Can I ask just a quick follow-up on my first question to Fabienne? You've substantially increased data volumes. In some of your Orange offers, you went from 2 to 5 gig -- sorry, from 2 to 10 gig and 30 to 50. Can you talk a bit about the dynamics you're seeing here? Are you seeing upsell driving higher ARPU or any risk of people trying to optimize with a cheaper bundle? So if you can explain a little bit what's happening here in terms of dynamics?

我可以快速跟進我向 Fabienne 提出的第一個問題嗎？您已大幅增加資料量。在你的一些 Orange 報價中，你的演出從 2 到 5 場——抱歉，從 2 場到 10 場，還有 30 場到 50 場。您能談談您在這裡看到的動態嗎？您是否看到追加銷售會帶來更高的 ARPU，或者人們嘗試透過更便宜的捆綁包進行優化是否有風險？那麼您能否從動力學角度解釋一下這裡發生的情況？

It's about mobile only or convergent, your question?

您的問題是僅涉及移動還是融合？

Yes, I mean you've done that in both mobile and convergent. But just -- you've done -- in mobile, you've gone from 2 to 10 gig offers for EUR 2 step-up. So if you can explain a little bit what you're seeing in terms of dynamics? Is it driving ARPU? Or if there is any risk of or any evidence of optimization of customers?

是的，我的意思是您在行動和融合領域都做到了這一點。但是，您已經在行動領域做到了，只需 2 歐元即可獲得 2 份工作機會，增加到 10 份工作機會。那麼您能否從動態方面解釋一下您所看到的情況？它會推動 ARPU 嗎？或是否有任何優化客戶的風險或任何證據？

Yes. As you observe, the convergent ARPU increase, thanks -- it's important to explain and maybe there is answer to your question. Thanks to the fiber, but thanks to the mobile and to the proliferation of mobile secondary line because when we revamped -- we have revamped our offers, you remember, in last October, we -- introducing more flexibility and more flexibility especially in families, which make the choice of Open to buy mobile plan with more data but with more price. The strategy we have to more for more is still sustainable, and we pursue it. And it's exactly what you see in the convergent ARPU increase this year. And I think it's sustainable for the future. On the mobile, yes, the ARPU is decreasing, but it's because the mix is changing with the ways of Sosh. But if you look at the ARPU of Sosh separately and if you observe the ARPU of Orange separately, they grow. So I don't see customer make this trade-off. The quality of the network of Orange, the quality of the customer experience are 2 assets for us. And we will pursue in this way to be sustainable and to offer customers differentiation and to avoid the risk you explain.

是的。正如您所觀察到的，收斂的 ARPU 增加了，謝謝——解釋一下很重要，也許您的問題有答案。感謝光纖，但感謝移動和移動輔助線路的激增，因為當我們改進時——我們改進了我們的服務，你記得，去年十月，我們——引入了更多的靈活性和更多的靈活性，特別是在家庭中，這使得選擇開放購買行動套餐具有更多數據但價格更高。我們「多贏多贏」的策略仍然是可持續的，並且我們會追求它。這正是您在今年的 ARPU 趨同成長中所看到的。我認為這對未來是可持續的。是的，在行動裝置上，ARPU 正在下降，但這是因為混合方式正在隨著 Sosh 的方式而改變。但如果你分別觀察 Sosh 的 ARPU 和 Orange 的 ARPU，它們就會成長。所以我不認為客戶會做出這種權衡。Orange 網路的品質和客戶體驗的品質是我們的兩大資產。我們將透過這種方式追求永續發展，為客戶提供差異化服務，並避免您所解釋的風險。

We will now take our next question from Sam McHugh of Exane.

現在我們將回答 Exane 的 Sam McHugh 提出的下一個問題。

Just first on broadband in France. I think you've mentioned you are now #1 back in Paris again, so congratulations. Presumably the fiber rollout is helping you regain share in urban parts of France. How do you look out ahead of 2019? Do you think kind of the level of broadband net additions you've delivered this year is sustainable again? And then the second is a slightly more convoluted question, sorry. If I look at Slide 12, we can see that your CapEx ex Fiber to the Home continues to go up as a percentage of sales. And I think the implication has just gone up by about EUR 300 million since 2015. Now over that period, you said you've delivered EUR 3 billion of OpEx and CapEx gross savings, some of which is about EUR 600 is CapEx efficiency. So when I do the math, it kind of says CapEx ex fiber has gone up around EUR 1 billion gross between 2015 and 2018. So my big question is, why is CapEx going up by so much ex fiber on an underlying basis? And should we expect it to keep going up?

法國首先使用寬頻。我想你已經提到你現在再次回到巴黎排名第一，所以恭喜你。據推測，光纖的推出正在幫助您重新獲得在法國城市地區的份額。您對2019年有何展望？您認為今年所提供的寬頻淨增量水準是否能夠再次持續？第二個是稍微複雜一點的問題，抱歉。如果我查看投影片 12，我們可以看到您的資本支出（光纖到府）佔銷售額的百分比持續上升。我認為自 2015 年以來，這一影響已增加了約 3 億歐元。現在，您說在此期間您已經實現了 30 億歐元的營運支出和資本支出總節省，其中約 600 歐元是資本支出效率。因此，當我計算時，可以看出 2015 年至 2018 年間，除光纖外的資本支出總額增加了約 10 億歐元。所以我的大問題是，為什麼資本支出在基本基礎上增加瞭如此多的纖維前費用？我們是否應該期望它繼續上漲？

Okay, maybe Fabienne for the first question and then Ramon for the second.

好的，也許法比恩回答第一個問題，然後拉蒙回答第二個問題。

We are confident to pursue the strategy on the fiber and to have with the fiber the success we record the last year. I think we still have the first-mover advantage in this market not only because we deploy fiber but because all the industrial tool and commercial tool are ready because the footprint -- or shop we have in France is very sustainable and help us to sell fiber everywhere, in very dense area, middle dense area and tomorrow in the PIN area. So I'm really confident that convergent and fiber are the 2 assets for the success of Orange in the following year. In the last year, all competitors were on fiber, Free, Bouygues, SFR. And even this very hot competition, even and despite some very low price pushed by my competitors, you know what I mean, we succeed. It's 580,000 new customers on fiber. It's an improvement of the mix. It's an improvement of the ARPU. So I am really confident on fiber and on convergent because this is a boost element of the success.

我們有信心繼續推行光纖策略，並在光纖領域取得去年所取得的成功。我認為我們在這個市場仍然具有先發優勢，不僅因為我們部署了光纖，還因為所有工業工具和商業工具都已準備就緒，因為我們在法國的足跡或商店非常可持續，有助於我們銷售光纖到處都是，在非常密集的區域、中等密集的區域以及明天的PIN 區域。因此，我非常有信心融合和光纖是 Orange 在明年成功的兩大資產。去年，所有參賽者都使用光纖、Free、Bouygues、SFR。即使競爭非常激烈，儘管我的競爭對手推出了非常低的價格，但你知道我的意思，我們成功了。光纖新客戶數量達到 58 萬名。這是混合的改進。這是 ARPU 的改進。因此，我對光纖和融合非常有信心，因為這是成功的推動因素。

Thank you. Ramon?

謝謝。拉蒙？

So on the CapEx question. I'm afraid it is absolutely impossible to reconcile the gross savings from both the Explore 2020 OpEx and CapEx side. You're talking of CapEx and the net evolution of our CapEx that we are seeing in the past years. And I apologize for this because I know it's complicated for you to keep track of how gross translates into net. The end result is what you see in our CapEx figures. You've seen an increase in our CapEx figures in the past years, reaching to the peak in 2018, it was EUR 7.4 billion, which is going to be in the new aggregate, EUR 7.2 billion, okay. And this is due to, essentially, the acceleration of fiber investment, of course in France but also in Spain. Even if I think you have noted that for the first time in 2018, investments in Spain, in fiber had been going down. So in Spain, we've done 90% of the job done. And we are now, we have -- we're close to having the EUR 16 million fiber coverage in Spain, and also Poland where we have embarked in 2015 in the program of rolling out fiber, which is accelerating and which is very important explanation of how we went back to growth in Poland in 2018 for the first time in 12 years. So it's a major turnaround in Poland. And this is a result of the convergence strategy where we now have a 60% convergence rate in Poland coming from nearly nowhere 2 years ago. So it's absolutely a major achievement. When you look at our CapEx, you have around 3-plus points which are attributable to the fiber program compared to the historical average level of investment. This is what has been driven -- or driving our efforts and which is slowly going to be a bit less demanding. But in France, clearly, it's not yet the case. In France, we are still at the time of massively rolling out fiber. 4G is also important. Stéphane said when he was talking previously that when you look at the CapEx increase in 2018, you have roughly -- it's nearly all network, and it's roughly half broadband, half mobile. But this is -- we are at the peak. We are starting the slow decrease. It is a slow decrease because we have been accelerating these investments. Also in the context, never forget famous new deal we've done in early 2018 in France, where the government decided not to request new financial auction for spectrum in exchange for an acceleration of investments from the 4 telecom players in France. And this, for us was a massive savings, around EUR 800 million that we would have had to pay if not this new deal agreement. But the counterpart was that we committed to accelerated investment. So all in all, I mean we are very well on track with what we've said in the past 2, 3 years on CapEx. We have been increasing. We are at the peak. We are going to start to decrease and, at the same time, managing to have this massive rollout. So I think it's quite an achievement. Of course, it is demanding. Of course, it's the reason why we have embarked into the Lean CAPEX program. I went rapidly on some of the major Lean CAPEX initiatives, but just to achieve 1 single, 1 gigabox for all the European countries, (inaudible) is there also, it's not so easy. Well, this is -- it's going to be done, and it will give significant savings. The quick-install and turnkey project to roll out fiber at the lowest possible price, looking at the best practices in some countries, especially in Spain, I must say, we got a lot of inspiration from initially the Jazztel model of rolling out fiber, which has been expanded to the whole our Spain process. And when -- we are looking at it for France. So investment is high. It reached a peak. And at the same time, we managed to be the #1 European player in terms of fiber. We are #1. We are #1 in Europe in terms of convergent player. So it is really the key for the success of tomorrow. And this effort has been paying off. You can see it in the 2018 results.

關於資本支出問題。恐怕完全不可能協調 Explore 2020 營運支出和資本支出方面的總節省。您談論的是資本支出以及我們在過去幾年中看到的資本支出的淨演變。我對此表示歉意，因為我知道您很難追蹤總收入如何轉化為淨收入。最終結果就是您在我們的資本支出數據中看到的結果。您已經看到過去幾年我們的資本支出數字有所增加，在 2018 年達到峰值，達到 74 億歐元，這將包含在新的總額中，即 72 億歐元，好吧。這本質上是由於纖維投資的加速，當然在法國也是如此，在西班牙也是如此。即使我認為您已經注意到，2018 年西班牙對光纖的投資首次下降。所以在西班牙，我們已經完成了 90% 的工作。現在，我們已經接近在西班牙以及波蘭實現了 1600 萬歐元的光纖覆蓋，我們在 2015 年開始了鋪設光纖的計劃，該計劃正在加速，這是非常重要的解釋2018 年我們如何在波蘭12 年來首次恢復增長。所以這對波蘭來說是一個重大轉變。這是融合策略的結果，波蘭現在的融合率達到了 60%，兩年前幾乎還沒有達到這個水準。所以這絕對是一項重大成就。當您查看我們的資本支出時，您會發現與歷史平均投資水準相比，光纖計劃帶來了大約 3 個以上的分數。這就是我們所推動的——或者說推動我們努力的動力，而這將慢慢變得不那麼苛刻。但在法國，顯然情況還不是這樣。在法國，我們仍處於大規模鋪設光纖的時期。4G也很重要。Stéphane 之前在演講時表示，當你觀察 2018 年的資本支出成長時，你會發現，幾乎全部都是網絡，大約一半是寬頻，一半是行動。但這是——我們正處於巔峰。我們正在開始緩慢下降。這是一個緩慢的下降，因為我們一直在加速這些投資。同樣在這種背景下，永遠不要忘記我們在 2018 年初在法國達成的著名新協議，政府決定不再要求進行新的頻譜財務拍賣，以換取法國 4 家電信營運商加速投資。這對我們來說是一筆巨大的節省，如果沒有這份新交易協議，我們將不得不支付約 8 億歐元。但與之對應的是，我們致力於加速投資。總而言之，我的意思是，我們在過去 2、3 年的資本支出方面所說的一切都非常順利。我們一直在增加。我們正處於巔峰。我們將開始減少，同時設法進行大規模的推廣。所以我認為這是一項相當大的成就。當然，這是有要求的。當然，這就是我們開始實施精實資本支出計畫的原因。我很快就採取了一些主要的精益資本支出舉措，但只是為了為所有歐洲國家實現 1 個單一、1 個千兆盒（聽不清楚），這也不是那麼容易。嗯，這就是——它將被完成，並且它將帶來大量的節省。以盡可能低的價格推出光纖的快速安裝和交鑰匙項目，著眼於一些國家的最佳實踐，特別是在西班牙，我必須說，我們從最初推出光纖的 Jazztel 模式中得到了很多靈感，這已經擴展到我們的整個西班牙流程。我們正在為法國著想。所以投資很大。達到了頂峰。同時，我們在纖維方面成為歐洲排名第一的企業。我們是#1。就融合玩家而言，我們在歐洲排名第一。所以這確實是明天成功的關鍵。這種努力已經得到回報。你可以在2018年的業績中看到這一點。

We will now take our next question from Jakob Bluestone of Crédit Suisse.

現在我們將回答瑞士信貸銀行的雅各布布魯斯通提出的下一個問題。

Just one clarification. Just on the IFRS 16. I think when you did the presentation a few weeks ago, I think you might have mentioned it was EUR 200 million reconciliation between the old and the new sort of definition for EBITDA. And I think in the slides you're saying EUR 300 million. Can you maybe just clarify if that's changed a little bit the way you define that?

只是一處澄清。就在 IFRS 16 上。我想，當您幾週前做演示時，我想您可能已經提到了 EBITDA 的新舊定義之間的 2 億歐元調整。我認為您在幻燈片中說的是 3 億歐元。您能否澄清一下您的定義方式是否有改變？

There is no change, but there is a precision. I think -- and there was this call 3 weeks ago. We said that the lease IFRS 16 impact on EBITDAaL would be around minus EUR 200 million. Here, the figure, you're absolutely right, is around EUR 300 million because you have to add, and I think it was mentioned in the call and we said we would give the precise figure today, so this is the time to give it, that you have also to take into account the impact on the comparable basis of the other evolution on eCAPEX. And so you have around EUR 100 million, which is the consequence of also switching from the CapEx to eCAPEX indicator, which has an impact on the 2018 comparable EBITDA, now EBITDAaL, okay. So all in all, it's a EUR 300 million impact. If it's not clear, I can try and say it again. In French, maybe it will be clearer. But if you got it in English, it's good enough.

沒有什麼變化，但是有一個精確度。我想——三週前就接到這個電話了。我們表示，租賃 IFRS 16 對 EBITDAaL 的影響約為負 2 億歐元。在這裡，這個數字，你絕對正確，大約是 3 億歐元，因為你必須添加，我認為在電話中提到了這一點，我們說過我們今天會給出準確的數字，所以現在是時候給出它，您還必須考慮其他演進對eCAPEX 的可比較基礎上的影響。所以你大約有 1 億歐元，這是從資本支出指標轉向 eCAPEX 指標的結果，這對 2018 年可比 EBITDA（現在的 EBITDAaL）有影響。總而言之，這將產生 3 億歐元的影響。如果不清楚，我可以嘗試再說一次。如果是法語的話，可能會更清楚一些。但如果你有英文版，那就夠了。

We will now take our next question from Stephane Beyazian of MainFirst.

現在我們將回答 MainFirst 的 Stephane Beyazian 提出的下一個問題。

Three if I may. The first one is regarding pricing in France. We have seen some lower promotional activity lately. I was just wondering whether it is, for you, some low-end market noise here. Or do you actually observe some, let's say, relevant improvement in the trends? Second question, regarding the outlook for the EBITDA. Are you able to just quantify here more for us some of the moving parts behind such as the VAT savings or perhaps a low ceiling in banking that you expect in 2019? That could be quite helpful. And actually, since you perform particularly well every first half in France, whether we could be expecting something similar in 2019? And finally, a third one if I may. There has been still some political noise around the copper network deterioration lately. Are you just able to say a few word there? Quantify, I don't know how bad that is? And whether you've seen this is going to be easily fixed in 2019? Or whether this is something more structural and long term to fix?

如果可以的話，三個。第一個是關於法國的定價。最近我們看到促銷活動有所減少。我只是想知道對你來說這是否是一些低端市場的噪音。或者說，您是否確實觀察到趨勢中的一些相關改善？第二個問題，關於 EBITDA 的前景。您能否在這裡為我們更多地量化一些背後的變化因素，例如您預計 2019 年的增值稅節省或銀行業的較低上限？這可能很有幫助。事實上，由於你們在法國的上半年表現都特別好，我們是否可以期待 2019 年會出現類似的情況？最後，如果可以的話，還有第三個。最近，圍繞銅纜網絡惡化仍存在一些政治噪音。你能在那裡說幾句話嗎？量化一下，我不知道這有多糟？您是否認為這個問題會在 2019 年輕鬆解決？或者這是否是一個更具結構性和長期需要解決的問題？

Thank you. So first, again.

謝謝。所以首先，再說一次。

On the market, so we don't observe a slowdown in the promotional intensity. From June, we have to face promotion with plan for life, especially for the mobile around EUR 5 or EUR 10. And this is in every day, every month. So I don't observe a slowdown in the intensity of promotion on mobile and on the broadband. If you look and if you observe, there is a very high level of promotion on the broadband too and the -- sorry, and fiber too, with some [for-life] promotion too. In the same time, we observe the attempt from players to raise the price. And it's what we can observe last months. So we don't believe that the intensity and the aggressiveness on the mobile and broadband is sustainable. And we observe all our competitors are in a difficult position. So we have a resilient strategy focused on volume and value, and we will maintain it in 2019. And we are able to wait and to resist. But I don't observe now, but I think maybe at the end and we -- maybe, there will some change in the future. But in the past, and on H2, I don't observe a slowdown in this promotion. Maybe the beginning of the year will change. We observe this point with very cautious.

在市場上，我們沒有觀察到促銷力道放緩。從6月開始，我們就要面對人生規劃的促銷，尤其是5歐元或10歐元左右的手機。這存在於每一天、每個月。因此，我沒有觀察到行動和寬頻的促銷強度有所放緩。如果你仔細觀察，你會發現寬頻方面也有非常高水準的促銷，抱歉，還有光纖，還有一些[終身]促銷。同時，我們觀察到玩家試圖提高價格。這是我們在過去幾個月中可以觀察到的情況。因此，我們認為行動和寬頻領域的強度和侵略性是不可持續的。我們觀察到所有競爭對手都處於困境。因此，我們有一個專注於數量和價值的彈性策略，我們將在 2019 年維持這項策略。我們能夠等待和抵抗。但我現在不觀察，但我認為也許到最後，我們——也許，未來會發生一些變化。但在過去和下半年，我沒有觀察到這種促銷活動放緩。也許年初會改變。我們非常謹慎地觀察這一點。

Ramon, the second question, please.

拉蒙，請問第二個問題。

On EBITDAaL trend. Well, we're not going to go into detailing H1 compared to H2 in a specific country or not even in specific countries. But maybe what I can say is there is one significant headwind that we have described for 2019, which is the end of VAT ePresse e-book positive impact we had for a small part in 2017, for a bigger part in 2018, which accounted for EUR 160 million in 2018. So this will be out in 2019. So this is the only really significant element which is changing a bit of perspective, and this is why we say we anticipate a slight increase in EBITDAaL in 2019 compared to the acceleration we had in 2018. But it is still growth. Once again, it is growth. So apart from this, I would just say that you've seen on the basis of 2018 that we have this strong dynamic in Africa, Middle East, which is contributing strongly to the performance of the group. And it's -- this is why we are in this region expanding and growing also with a number of initiatives. Spain, of course, is in a more difficult market but is still able to grow significantly EBITDA, EBITDAaL also, also in 2019, okay, because there are a number of sources for growth there that can still be mobilized. France has been extremely resilient in this context, even if there are the headwinds we just talked about. And so there is a broad source of growth in the group, and we are comfortable that we can achieve this [fine] growth. Now as Stéphane said, these markets are uncertain, and we will see over the year what is the dynamic quarter-over-quarter. Savings, sorry, just to say that this Explore 2020 Lean CAPEX program is a very strong program in the group. We've been working a lot on these programs. I tried to give some examples on the distribution part, on sales, on IT, on network. So there is an ongoing work. We have set new objectives. And so this will also be part of the game. I mean, there is revenue growth, but there is also this optimization of our cost base, which is still going to be a very strong priority for the management team.

關於 EBITDAaL 趨勢。好吧，我們不會詳細說明 H1 與 H2 在特定國家/地區的比較，甚至不會在特定國家/地區進行比較。但也許我可以說的是，我們已經描述了2019 年的一個重大逆風，即增值稅ePresse 電子書積極影響的結束，我們在2017 年有一小部分，但在2018 年有更大的影響，這佔了2018 年 1.6 億歐元。所以這將在 2019 年推出。因此，這是唯一真正重要的因素，它正在改變一些觀點，這就是為什麼我們說，與 2018 年的加速相比，我們預計 2019 年 EBITDAaL 將略有增加。但這仍然是成長。再次，是成長。除此之外，我只想說，你在 2018 年的基礎上看到，我們在非洲、中東擁有強勁的活力，這對集團的業績做出了巨大貢獻。這就是為什麼我們在這個地區透過一系列舉措來擴張和發展。當然，西班牙處於一個更困難的市場，但 EBITDA、EBITDAaL 仍然能夠大幅成長，同樣在 2019 年，因為那裡仍然有許多成長來源可以調動。即使存在我們剛才談到的不利因素，法國在這種情況下也表現得非常有彈性。因此，該集團擁有廣泛的成長來源，我們對能夠實現這種[良好]成長感到滿意。現在，正如 Stéphane 所說，這些市場存在不確定性，我們將在今年看到季度環比的動態。節省，抱歉，只是想說，探索 2020 精益資本支出計劃是該集團中非常強大的計劃。我們在這些計劃上做了很多工作。我試著舉一些關於分銷、銷售、IT、網路的例子。因此，有一項正在進行的工作。我們設定了新的目標。所以這也將成為遊戲的一部分。我的意思是，收入有所增長，但我們的成本基礎也得到了優化，這仍然是管理團隊的首要任務。

Now regarding the situation of the copper network in France. Well, as you know, we faced a difficult situation in 2018, mainly due to severe climatic conditions and events, but also of course, this is a result of the progressive obsolescence of the copper network. And so we had to take an action plan in order to fix this and to get back to the set of indicators set by the regulator, ARCEP. This means also that we had to increase the number of resources that we allocate to the copper network, especially we recruited 200 additional people, technicians, in order to take care of the copper network. We also increased the budgets that we allocate to maintenance while the number of lines is constantly decreasing. So all those actions are, of course, embedded in our OpEx and CapEx plans for 2019. They are not very significant at the scale of what we are doing in France. We are now back to compliance for 7 of the indicators set by the ARCEP regarding the service universal prescriptions, which is a very good first step, and we are relatively confident in order to be compliant with the service universal requirements on the next check that would be made by the ARCEP. This being said, clearly, we will have to still focus on the quality of service that we provide on the copper network this year. And we are relatively confident in our capacity to, once again, get back to the level of quality of service that is expected, both by our regulator and by our customers and also wholesale customers, thanks to this action plan that we decided in late 2018. So no significant impact in OpEx and CapEx budgets this year. But this has been, of course, embedded in our figures.

現在談談法國銅纜網路的情況。如你所知，我們在 2018 年面臨困難的局面，主要是由於惡劣的氣候條件和事件，當然，這也是銅網絡逐漸淘汰的結果。因此，我們必須採取行動計畫來解決這個問題，並恢復由監管機構 ARCEP 設定的指標集。這也意味著我們必須增加分配給銅線網路的資源數量，特別是我們額外招募了 200 名技術人員，以照顧銅線網路。我們也增加了維修預算，同時線路數量不斷減少。因此，所有這些行動當然都包含在我們 2019 年的營運支出和資本支出計畫中。就我們在法國所做的事情而言，它們的規模並不是很大。我們現在恢復遵守 ARCEP 規定的關於服務通用處方的 7 項指標，這是非常好的第一步，我們對在下一次檢查中遵守服務通用要求相對有信心。話雖如此，很明顯，我們今年仍必須關注我們在銅纜網路上提供的服務品質。由於我們在 2018 年底決定的這項行動計劃，我們對再次恢復監管機構、客戶以及批發客戶所期望的服務品質水準的能力充滿信心。因此，今年的營運支出和資本支出預算沒有重大影響。但這當然已經體現在我們的數據中。

We will now take our next question from Andrew Lee of Goldman Sachs.

現在我們將回答高盛的安德魯李提出的下一個問題。

Really one question. Just on the -- on your cash generation and just referring to Slide 29 in your deck. So net debt seems to have spiked in FY '18 and is materially worse than where consensus is looking for. Working capital's -- just amongst the items, working capital is worse. Other financial items and also change in CapEx payables are worse. So the key question is how much of this is structural versus one-off? And did that debt situation impact your dividend decision?

確實有一個問題。就您的現金產生而言，請參閱您投影片中的第 29 張投影片。因此，淨債務似乎在 18 財年飆升，並且比共識預期的情況嚴重糟糕。營運資本－在這些項目中，營運資本的情況更糟。其他財務項目以及應付資本支出的變化更糟。因此，關鍵問題是，其中有多少是結構性的，而不是一次性的？這種債務狀況是否影響了您的股利決定？

Ramon?

拉蒙？

You know I'm happy to be the CFO of a company with a debt leverage below 2. So...

你知道我很高興成為一家債務槓桿低於 2 的公司的財務長。 所以...

And happy to be the CEO also.

也很高興成為執行長。

So both Stéphane and I are happy. Yes, yes, this debt level has slightly increased in 2018. But I mean this is fully in line with our guidance, okay. The guidance is around 2, and we are below 2. Second, it is not bad news that your debt is slightly increasing when it is in fact investing in the future because we have been, as we all know, increasing our CapEx. And it is true that the cash CapEx part in 2018 has been more important because we do really accelerate. And this is why we can get this broad reach of this broad customer base in Europe but also with 4G. We also made some acquisitions which are going to accelerate the transformation of the Orange Business Services towards IT and integration services. And we know that this is the key for the future. So it has a small impact on the debt level in 2018, but once again, the balance sheet is extremely solid. And I even think I heard from time to time people complaining on the thing that we didn't have enough debt. So we are trying to reach the balance. Probably, with your question, we are on the right side of the balance.

所以史蒂芬和我都很高興。是的，是的，這個債務水準在2018年略有上升。但我的意思是，這完全符合我們的指導，好吧。指引值約為 2，而我們低於 2。確實，2018 年的現金資本支出部分更為重要，因為我們確實在加速。這就是為什麼我們能夠透過 4G 覆蓋歐洲廣大客戶群。我們也進行了一些收購，這將加速 Orange Business Services 向 IT 和整合服務的轉型。我們知道這是未來的關鍵。因此，它對2018年的債務水準影響較小，但資產負債表再次極為穩健。我甚至認為我不時聽到人們抱怨我們沒有足夠的債務。所以我們正在努力達到平衡。也許，就你的問題而言，我們是站在平衡的正確那一邊。

And maybe, Andrew, just to add a word on your question: Is there a link between the debt situation and the dividend? The answer is no. We have plenty of capacity to pay dividend of EUR 0.70 or even more. So to me, it has always been very clear that the dividend must be set according to the economic performance of the company, the EBITDA and cash generation. Thanks God, and thanks to maybe the way we have managed this company in the last 10 years, we have a very solid balance sheet. We have a totally controlled debt situation, and we have -- it's certainly not in consideration of the debt situation of the company that we will make our dividend decision.

安德魯，也許只是對你的問題補充一點：債務狀況和股息之間是否存在關聯？答案是否定的。我們有足夠的能力支付 0.70 歐元甚至更多的股息。所以對我來說，一直很清楚的是，股息必須根據公司的經濟表現、EBITDA 和現金產生來設定。感謝上帝，也感謝過去 10 年我們管理這家公司的方式，我們擁有非常穩健的資產負債表。我們的債務狀況完全受控，而且我們在做出股息決定時肯定不會考慮公司的債務狀況。

Our last question is from Mathieu Robilliard of Barclays.

我們的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mathieu Robilliard。

I have 2 questions, please. First, in terms of the wholesale trends in France. There was a very strong recovery in Q4. And I wanted to understand exactly if we should continue to expect a little bit of volatility on a quarterly basis because the first 9 months were not exactly the same. And basically should we expect this kind of volatility for 2019? And more broadly, when I compare the wholesale trajectory to your midterm guidance, are you still expecting wholesale revenues to grow in the next few years? And then second, maybe coming back to some of the comments around the French competitive environment and how you see it. I think Fabienne very clearly said that H2 was with a lot of competition. There was some prices increases at the beginning of the year. Is it fair to say that the way you think about your guidance on different levels assumes that the competitive environment remains tough in France for 2019 but slightly better than '18? Or am I getting this wrong?

我有 2 個問題，請問。首先，就法國的批發趨勢而言。第四季出現了非常強勁的復甦。我想確切地了解我們是否應該繼續預期每季都會出現一點波動，因為前 9 個月並不完全相同。基本上我們應該預期 2019 年會出現這種波動嗎？更廣泛地說，當我將批發軌跡與你們的中期指導進行比較時，你們仍然預計批發收入在未來幾年會成長嗎？其次，也許回到有關法國競爭環境的一些評論以及您如何看待它。我認為 Fabienne 說得非常清楚，H2 的競爭非常激烈。今年年初，價格出現了一些上漲。可以公平地說，您在不同層面上考慮指導的方式是假設 2019 年法國的競爭環境仍然嚴峻，但略好於 18 年嗎？還是我理解錯了？

Jerome, Head of Wholesale business unit will answer the first question. And maybe I will take the second question to provide some relief to Fabienne.

批發業務部門負責人傑羅姆將回答第一個問題。也許我會回答第二個問題，讓法比恩鬆一口氣。

Yes, Stéphane. Okay. So as you noted, we had a solid performance in Q4 with the growth of 3.4% at group level and 2.8% at France level. In France, your question was in France. So in France, is due to -- growth in 3 -- mainly in -- mainly 3 activities: fiber, public-initiative networks and roaming. And this growth -- these activities in growth offset -- more than offset the decrease of legacy activities such as in Berlin. As you might imagine, these activities will continue to grow. Fiber will continue to grow. PIN will continue to grow. Roaming and visitor roaming will continue to grow. So under all -- at a global level, as a result of that, we expect this growth trend to continue in 2019 and the next years. So for your last question, yes, we confirm the trend of growth for wholesale activities at the group (inaudible) level.

是的，史蒂芬。好的。正如您所指出的，我們在第四季度表現穩健，集團層級成長了 3.4%，法國層級成長了 2.8%。在法國，你的問題是在法國。因此，在法國，成長是由於 3 項活動的成長，主要是 3 項活動：光纖、公共倡議網路和漫遊。這種增長——這些增長中的活動抵消了——遠遠抵消了柏林等遺留活動的減少。正如您可能想像的那樣，這些活動將繼續增長。纖維將繼續增長。PIN 將持續成長。漫遊和訪客漫遊將繼續增長。因此，在全球層面上，我們預計這種成長趨勢將在 2019 年和未來幾年持續下去。因此，對於你的最後一個問題，是的，我們確認了集團（聽不清楚）層面批發活動的成長趨勢。

Thank you, Jerome. Maybe I will take the second question, just to provide Fabienne -- I just give you some observations that I can do on this competitive environment. Fabienne has a lot develop this. So maybe that would make a slightly additional flavor. Because it's linked also to our guidance. Your question is more about what is impact of your analysis of the competitive environment of the French market on the guidance. I think that to summarize what -- how I see Orange in this market, I would say that we are very ambitious but realistic. And to be honest, I think it would be foolish to imagine that the competitive intensity, which is one of the highest in Europe, in European markets, that we have today in France, will diminish in any way this year. Of course if this happens, we will be much more comfortable to reach our targets and maybe to deliver additional growth in 2019. But today, what we see is still a very high number of promotions in this market. We have in France something which is outstanding in Europe, which is life promotions. And all the players in this market are playing this very tough game. Thanks to what we have done, what we have founded at Orange in the past years with fiber, with convergence, with the quality of customer experience, with the renovation of shops, with everything that we have deployed in order to establish a differentiation in the market based on network superiority, which explains the level of CapEx, of course, because we have to fuel this in mobile, in fixed, in fiber. I think that we are solid enough to perform in this market. But yes, we think that it's more realistic and, to be honest, more credible to tell that in this beginning -- in the beginning of this year, we don't see any reason to think or to imagine or to hope that the competitive intensity in the French market is going to decrease. So this is the way we have built our guidance. Once again, we are ambitious but realistic, and clearly, we think that the competitive environment in France will remain tough and probably one of the toughest in Europe. But we are very well prepared to cope with this, to resist and, at last, to be the best performer in the market based on our assets. And now of course, if we have an improvement of this competitive environment, it will be clearly a very good news, and it will make us much more, well, comfortable or in a better position in order to achieve our guidance or even to deliver better.

謝謝你，傑羅姆。也許我會回答第二個問題，只是為了向 Fabienne 提供——我只是給你一些我可以在這個競爭環境中做的觀察。Fabienne 在這方面有許多發展。所以也許這會帶來一點額外的味道。因為它也與我們的指導有關。您的問題更多的是您對法國市場競爭環境的分析對指導有何影響。我認為，總結一下我對 Orange 在這個市場的看法，我想說的是，我們非常雄心勃勃，但也很現實。說實話，我認為，想像今年法國的競爭強度（歐洲市場的競爭強度是歐洲最高的之一）將會以任何方式減弱都是愚蠢的。當然，如果這種情況發生，我們將更輕鬆地實現我們的目標，並可能在 2019 年實現額外成長。但今天，我們看到這個市場的促銷活動仍然非常多。我們在法國有一些在歐洲很突出的東西，那就是生活促銷。這個市場上的所有參與者都在玩這個非常艱難的遊戲。感謝我們過去幾年在 Orange 所做的一切，包括光纖、融合、客戶體驗品質、商店翻新以及我們為在市場中建立差異化而部署的一切。因為我們必須在行動、固定和光纖領域推動這一水平。我認為我們有足夠的實力在這個市場上表現出色。但是，是的，我們認為，在今年年初，我們認為更現實，說實話，更可信，我們看不到任何理由去思考、想像或希望競爭法國市場的強度將會減弱。這就是我們制定指導的方式。我們再次雄心勃勃但現實，顯然，我們認為法國的競爭環境將仍然艱難，而且可能是歐洲最艱難的環境之一。但我們已經做好充分準備來應對、抵制，並最終憑藉我們的資產成為市場上表現最好的企業。當然，現在如果我們改善這種競爭環境，這顯然是一個非常好的消息，它將使我們更加、更好、更舒適或處於更好的位置，以實現我們的指導，甚至交付更好的。

So I think time is over. I want to thank you, all of you, for being there for our -- friends here in Paris and in London for your attention, questions and trust to Orange. Thank you very much.

所以我認為時間已經結束了。我要感謝你們所有人，感謝你們在巴黎和倫敦的朋友們對 Orange 的關注、提問和信任。非常感謝。