Oportun Financial Corp (OPRT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Oportun Financial third quarter 2024 earnings call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Dorian Hare, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Dorian.

您好，歡迎參加 Oportun Financial 2024 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係部的 Dorian Hare。請繼續，多里安。

Thanks, and hello everyone. With me to discuss Oportun's third quarter 2024 results are Raul Vazquez, Chief Executive Officer; and Jonathan Coblentz, Chief Financial Officer & Chief Administrative Officer. I'll remind everyone on the call or webcast that some of the remarks made today will include forward-looking statements related to our business, future results of operations and financial position, planned products and services, business strategy, expense savings measures.

謝謝，大家好。與我一起討論 Oportun 2024 年第三季業績的是執行長 Raul Vazquez；財務長兼首席行政官喬納森‧科布倫茨 (Jonathan Coblentz)。我將提醒電話或網路廣播中的每個人，今天發表的一些言論將包括與我們的業務、未來營運業績和財務狀況、計劃的產品和服務、業務策略、費用節省措施相關的前瞻性陳述。

Statements regarding our senior secured term loan and plans and objectives of management for our future operations. Actual results may differ materially from those contemplated or implied by these forward-looking statements, and we caution you not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

關於我們的高級擔保定期貸款以及我們未來營運的管理計劃和目標的聲明。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述預期或暗示的結果有重大差異，我們提醒您不要過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述。

A more detailed discussion of the risk factors that could cause these results to differ materially are set forth in our earnings press release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the caption, Risk Factors, including our upcoming Form 10-Q filing for the quarter ended September 30, 2024.

關於可能導致這些結果出現重大差異的風險因素的更詳細討論，請參見我們的收益新聞稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件（標題為「風險因素」），包括我們即將提交的10-Q表格該季度截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日。

Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events other than as required by law.

我們在本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於截至目前的假設，除法律要求外，我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些陳述的義務。

Also on today's call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe can be useful measures for the period-to-period comparisons of our core business, and which will provide useful information to investors regarding our financial condition and results of operations.

此外，在今天的電話會議上，我們將介紹公認會計原則和非公認會計原則財務指標，我們認為這些指標可以作為我們核心業務的同期比較的有用指標，並將為投資者提供有關我們的財務狀況和業績的有用資訊。

A full list of definitions can be found in our earnings materials, available at the Investor Relations section on our website. Non-GAAP financial measures are presented in addition to, and not as a substitute for financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures is included in our earnings press release, our third quarter 2024 financial supplement and the appendix section on the third quarter 2024 earnings presentation, all of which are available at the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.oportun.com.

完整的定義清單可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分的收益資料中找到。非公認會計原則財務指標是根據公認會計原則計算的財務指標的補充，而不是替代。我們的收益新聞稿、2024 年第三季財務補充資料以及2024 年第三季收益演示的附錄部分中包含了非GAAP 與GAAP 財務指標的對賬，所有這些內容均可在我們網站的投資者關係部分取得： Investor.oportun.com。

In addition, this call is being webcast, and an archived version will be available after the call, along with a copy of our prepared remarks. With that, I will now turn the call over to Raul.

此外，本次電話會議正在網路直播，電話會議結束後將提供存檔版本以及我們準備好的評論副本。現在，我將把電話轉給勞爾。

Thanks, Dorian, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Overall, I'm pleased with the progress demonstrated by our third quarter results. The four headlines from the quarter, in my view, were lower charge-offs, return to growth, continued cost reduction, and higher profitability. First, we had lower charge-offs. Our annualized net charge-off rate was 11.9%, which was 26 basis points better than the lower end of our guidance range. When measured in dollars, our quarterly net charge-offs declined year-over-year for the fourth consecutive quarter, in this instance by 6%.

謝謝，多里安，大家午安。感謝您加入我們。總的來說，我對我們第三季業績所展現的進展感到滿意。在我看來，本季的四個頭條新聞是沖銷減少、成長恢復、成本持續降低和獲利能力提高。首先，我們的沖銷率較低。我們的年化淨沖銷率為 11.9%，比我們指導範圍的下限高出 26 個基點。以美元計算時，我們的季度淨沖銷額連續第四個季度同比下降，在本例中下降了 6%。

I'm also pleased with the progress we continue to make with our 30-plus day delinquencies, which were down 34 basis points year-over-year to 5.2%. That's the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines. Improvement in our credit performance is being driven in part by our implementation of our V12 credit model, which leverages the performance data of our portfolio over the last two years under higher inflation. We started using V12 to underwrite new borrower applications in January and recently implemented V12 to underwrite applications from returning borrowers, so we expect to see further improvements in credit performance in 2025.

我還對我們在 30 多天的拖欠率方面繼續取得的進展感到高興，拖欠率同比下降了 34 個基點至 5.2%。這是連續第三個季度年減。我們信用績效的改善部分是由於我們實施了 V12 信用模型，該模型利用了過去兩年高通膨情況下我們投資組合的績效數據。我們從 1 月開始使用 V12 承銷新借款人的申請，最近又實施了 V12 來承銷歸還借款人的申請，因此我們預計 2025 年信貸表現將進一步改善。

Second, we're ready to return to originations growth. After several consecutive quarters of origination levels that were lower than the prior year's levels, originations at $480 million during Q3 were virtually flat year-over-year. This is despite continuing to de-risk the business by decreasing average loan sizes, which were down 18% year-over-year from $3,975 to $3,244.

其次，我們已準備好回歸原創成長。在連續幾季的發動水準低於上年水準之後，第三季的發動水準為 4.8 億美元，與去年同期基本持平。儘管平均貸款規模持續降低，以降低業務風險，但平均貸款規模年減 18%，從 3,975 美元降至 3,244 美元。

Third, we've continued progress on expense reduction actions. Our 3Q GAAP operating expenses were $102 million, down 17% year-over-year, and we are reiterating our expectation to reduce GAAP operating expenses to $97.5 million or less by the fourth quarter. And fourth, each of these factors led to higher profitability. We generated $31 million of Adjusted EBITDA, more than doubling last year's level and exceeding the top end of our guidance range by 21%. Q3 was also our third consecutive quarter of Adjusted Net Income profitability.

三是降費行動不斷進步。我們的第三季 GAAP 營運費用為 1.02 億美元，年減 17%，我們重申我們預計到第四季將 GAAP 營運費用減少至 9,750 萬美元或更少。第四，這些因素都帶來了更高的獲利能力。我們實現了 3,100 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，是去年水準的兩倍多，比我們指導範圍的上限高出 21%。第三季也是我們連續第三個季度實現調整後淨利獲利。

I mentioned at the start of the year that we would see our business recover significantly, which we have delivered with improving trends in profitability, credit performance, originations and expense reductions. Additionally, the macro backdrop has also improved this year, with economists' expectations for a recession significantly diminishing, with resilient growth and ongoing low-unemployment, and with the Fed now having initiated a rate cut cycle that's expected to continue into next year.

我在年初提到，我們將看到我們的業務顯著復甦，我們已經實現了盈利能力、信用表現、資金來源和費用減少等方面的改善趨勢。此外，今年的宏觀背景也有所改善，經濟學家對經濟衰退的預期顯著降低，成長具有彈性，失業率持續低位，且聯準會現已啟動降息週期，預計將持續到明年。

As we near the end of 2024, we are well positioned to deliver an even better 2025. We've recently executed two transactions that were critical towards that end. First, we closed the sale of our credit card portfolio today. As we shared previously, the transaction will be $2 million Adjusted EBITDA accretive this quarter, and $11 million Adjusted EBITDA accretive for full year 2025.

2024 年即將結束，我們已做好充分準備，迎接更美好的 2025 年。我們最近執行了兩項對此至關重要的交易。首先，我們今天結束了信用卡投資組合的銷售。正如我們先前分享的，該交易本季調整後 EBITDA 將為 200 萬美元，2025 年全年調整後 EBITDA 為 1,100 萬美元。

Second, as we announced on October 29, we executed an agreement to fund a $235 million four-year senior term loan facility that will replace our existing corporate financing facility. This reflects a key milestone towards strengthening our balance sheet and enhancing our operational flexibility, thereby improving our financial results.

其次，正如我們在 10 月 29 日宣布的那樣，我們簽署了一項協議，為一項 2.35 億美元的四年期高級定期貸款融資提供資金，該貸款融資將取代我們現有的企業融資融資。這反映了我們在加強資產負債表和提高營運靈活性方面的一個重要里程碑，從而改善了我們的財務表現。

As we said in March, we had been evaluating refinancing options for the existing facility, given scheduled increases in the asset coverage ratio covenant requirements. We weren't going to be in compliance with the existing facility's ACR covenant, which limited operational flexibility to enhance shareholder value and didn't reflect operational improvements in the business. The new facility replaces the ACR covenant with an Adjusted EBITDA-based leverage covenant that rewards accretive decisions and recognizes cash flow generation.

正如我們在三月所說，鑑於資產覆蓋率契約要求的計劃增加，我們一直在評估現有設施的再融資方案。我們不會遵守現有設施的 ACR 契約，該契約限制了提高股東價值的營運彈性，並且沒有反映出業務營運的改善。新設施以基於調整後 EBITDA 的槓桿契約取代了 ACR 契約，該契約獎勵增值決策並認可現金流的產生。

With the closing of our credit card sale, which was a necessary condition, we expect the new term loan to fund this week. In connection with providing the term loan, the lenders will receive approximately 4.86 million penny warrants which equals to 9.8% of the fully-diluted shares outstanding of the company, excluding out-of-the-money options, on a pro-forma basis. Even with the dilution impact from the newly issued warrants, we expect to drive increased profitability on a per share basis through focusing on our core products, maintaining expense discipline, and improving credit performance.

隨著信用卡銷售的結束（這是一個必要條件），我們預計新的定期貸款將在本週提供資金。在提供定期貸款方面，貸款人將收到約 486 萬便士認股權證，相當於公司已完全稀釋的已發行股票的 9.8%（不包括價外選擇權）。即使受到新發行認股權證的稀釋影響，我們仍預期透過專注於我們的核心產品、維持費用紀律和改善信用表現，推動每股獲利能力的提升。

I'd like to reiterate our preliminary full year 2025 expectations that we released at the end of last month. They are Diluted EPS between $0.25 and $0.50. Adjusted EPS between $1 and $1.25. And an annualized net charge-off rate between 11% and 12%. In addition to our positive view of 2025, our full year 2024 outlook continues to show that after a strong start to this year, our second half performance will be even better than the first half.

我想重申我們上個月底發布的 2025 年全年初步預期。它們的稀釋每股收益在 0.25 美元到 0.50 美元之間。調整後每股收益在 1 美元至 1.25 美元之間。年化淨沖銷率在 11% 至 12% 之間。除了我們對 2025 年的積極看法之外，我們對 2024 年全年的展望繼續表明，經過今年的強勁開局，我們下半年的表現將甚至好於上半年。

In summary, I'm proud of how the team executed in Q3 and pleased that with the credit card sale behind us and the refinancing transaction expected to close this week, we can now turn our focus towards a strong close to 2024 and significantly improving our profitability and credit performance in 2025.

總而言之，我對團隊在第三季的執行情況感到自豪，並且很高興隨著信用卡銷售的結束以及預計本週完成的再融資交易，我們現在可以將重點轉向2024 年的強勁業績，並顯著改善我們的業績2025 年的獲利能力和信用表現。

With that, I will turn it over to Jonathan for additional details on our financial performance, credit performance, and guidance. Jonathan will also update you on how this translates to progress towards our longer-term unit economics objectives.

這樣，我會將其轉交給喬納森，以獲取有關我們的財務績效、信用績效和指導的更多詳細資訊。喬納森還將向您介紹這如何轉化為實現我們的長期單位經濟效益目標的最新情況。

Thanks Raul, and good afternoon everyone. As Raul mentioned, we're pleased with the progress demonstrated by our third quarter results and we're looking to carry that positive momentum into the fourth quarter and 2025. As shown on slide 7, Oportun delivered total revenue of $250 million, and we were profitable on an adjusted basis for the third consecutive quarter with adjusted net income of $0.9 million, for adjusted EPS of $0.02.

謝謝勞爾，大家下午好。正如 Raul 所提到的，我們對第三季業績所展現的進展感到滿意，我們希望將這種積極勢頭延續到第四季和 2025 年。如幻燈片 7 所示，Oportun 的總收入為 2.5 億美元，我們連續第三個季度在調整後盈利，調整後淨利潤為 90 萬美元，調整後每股收益為 0.02 美元。

While maintaining prudent credit discipline, originations of $480 million were down only 1% year-over-year. Sequentially, originations were up 10%, aligning with the typical seasonal pattern for a ramp throughout the year. Total revenue of $250 million declined by 7%, driven principally by a 7% decline in our average daily principal balance under our conservative credit posture.

在維持審慎的信用紀律的同時，4.8 億美元的貸款額年比僅下降 1%。隨後，起始量成長了 10%，與全年成長的典型季節性模式相符。總收入為 2.5 億美元，下降了 7%，這主要是由於我們在保守的信貸狀況下平均每日本金餘額下降了 7%。

Our total net decrease in fair value of $132 million was primarily driven by current period charge-offs of $82 million and a $35 million noncash mark on our ABS notes due to the weighted average price increasing from 96% to 97.8% as benchmark interest rates declined and credit spreads tightened significantly.

我們的公允價值淨減少總額為 1.32 億美元，主要是由於當期沖銷 8,200 萬美元以及 ABS 票據上的 3,500 萬美元非現金標記，這是由於基準利率下降導致加權平均價格從 96% 上升至 97.8%。信用利差顯著收緊。

As a reminder, we elected last year to stop fair valuing our new debt financings and expect their fair value impact to be minimal by the end of 2025 as the prior financings near maturity. Interest expense of $56 million was up $9 million year-over-year, primarily driven by an increase in our cost of debt to 7.8% versus 6.3% in the year-ago period, reflecting the higher rate environment. Net revenue was $63 million, down 26% year-over-year, primarily due to the total revenue decline, non-cash marks on our ABS notes, and a higher interest expense.

提醒一下，我們去年選擇停止對新債務融資進行公允估值，並預計到 2025 年底，由於先前的融資已接近到期，其公允價值影響將降至最低。利息支出為 5,600 萬美元，年增 900 萬美元，主要是由於我們的債務成本從去年同期的 6.3% 上升至 7.8%，反映了較高的利率環境。淨收入為 6,300 萬美元，年減 26%，主要是由於總收入下降、我們的 ABS 票據上的非現金標記以及利息支出增加。

Turning now to operating expenses and efficiency. We continue to see the benefits of our expense reduction initiatives. Our $102 million in total operating expenses in Q3 reflected a 17% decrease from the prior year period. For the quarter, we recorded adjusted net income of $1 million, a $13 million improvement compared to the prior year quarter, and adjusted EPS of $0.02, up $0.33 versus last year. The improvement was principally driven by our sharply reduced cost structure.

現在轉向營運費用和效率。我們繼續看到我們削減開支措施的好處。第三季我們的總營運支出為 1.02 億美元，比去年同期下降了 17%。本季度，我們的調整後淨利潤為 100 萬美元，比去年同期增加 1,300 萬美元，調整後每股收益為 0.02 美元，比去年增加 0.33 美元。這項改善主要是由我們大幅降低的成本結構所推動的。

I want to take a moment to emphasize that our adjusted net income provides a future run rate view of our GAAP net income by removing nonrecurring items and the mark-to-market on our ABS notes, which will be almost entirely gone after 2025. As you can see on slide 8, we would have been GAAP profitable on a year-to-date basis, excluding nonrecurring and noncash impacts relating to fair value marks on our ABS notes. The write-down of our credit card portfolio triggered by our agreement to sell it and other nonrecurring charges.

我想花點時間強調一下，我們的調整後淨利潤通過刪除非經常性項目和 ABS 票據上的按市價計算，提供了 GAAP 淨利潤的未來運行率視圖，這些項目在 2025 年之後幾乎完全消失。正如您在幻燈片 8 中看到的那樣，如果不包括與我們的 ABS 票據公允價值標記相關的非經常性和非現金影響，我們今年迄今將實現 GAAP 盈利。我們的信用卡投資組合的減記是由於我們同意出售信用卡投資組合和其他一次性費用而引發的。

Similarly, for the third quarter, our GAAP net loss was $30 million, driven by the $35 million noncash mark on our ABS notes. Adjusted EBITDA, which excludes the impact of fair value mark-to-market adjustments on our loan portfolio and notes was $31 million in the third quarter. This reflected a year-over-year increase of $17 million or 117%, driven also by our sharply reduced cost structure, along with lower net charge-offs on a dollar basis, partially offset by higher interest expense. Our adjusted EBITDA performance exceeded the high end of our guidance range by $5 million, primarily on lower-than-anticipated net charge-offs.

同樣，第三季度，由於 ABS 票據上的 3500 萬美元非現金標記，我們的 GAAP 淨虧損為 3000 萬美元。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 3,100 萬美元，其中不包括公允價值以市價調整對我們貸款組合和票據的影響。這反映了同比增長 1700 萬美元或 117%，這也是由於我們大幅降低的成本結構以及以美元為基礎的淨沖銷減少（部分被較高的利息支出所抵消）推動的。我們調整後的 EBITDA 績效超出指導範圍的上限 500 萬美元，主要是因為淨沖銷低於預期。

Let me now shift to more details on our strong Q3 credit performance, another key sign of progress. Our front book of loans originated since July 2022 continues to perform quite well, while our back book of loans underwritten prior to then continues to roll off.

現在讓我談談我們第三季強勁信貸表現的更多細節，這是進步的另一個關鍵指標。我們自 2022 年 7 月以來發放的貸款繼續表現良好，而在此之前承保的貸款則繼續減少。

As you can see on slide 10 of our earnings presentation, the losses in our front book 12 months plus after disbursement continue to run approximately 400 basis points lower than the losses on our back book. And our 3Q '23 vintage, which has now been on our books for 12 months, has shown the lowest losses of any front book vintage so far.

正如您在我們的收益簡報的幻燈片 10 中看到的那樣，在支付後 12 個月以上，我們的帳面損失繼續比我們的帳面損失低約 400 個基點。我們的 23 年第 3 季年份已在我們的帳簿上登記了 12 個月，其損失是迄今為止所有前帳年份中最低的。

Furthermore, you can see our annualized net charge-off rate for the quarter by front book versus back book on slide 11. In Q3, the front book had an annualized net charge-off rate of 10.4%, which is within the 9% to 11% net charge-off range that we are targeting in our unit economics model.

此外，您可以在投影片 11 上看到本季以前帳本與後帳本計算的年化淨沖銷率。第三季度，前台帳簿的年化淨沖銷率為 10.4%，在我們單位經濟模型中目標的 9% 至 11% 淨沖銷範圍內。

Finally, you can see on slide 9, in addition to our charge-offs declining 6% year-over-year, I'm pleased with the progress we continue to make with our 30-plus day delinquencies, which were down 34 basis points to 5.2%. That's the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines. And our October 30-plus delinquencies remain below 2023 as well.

最後，您可以在幻燈片 9 中看到，除了我們的沖銷同比下降 6% 之外，我對我們在 30 多天的拖欠率方面繼續取得的進展感到滿意，拖欠率下降了 34 個基點至5.2 %。這是連續第三個季度年減。我們 10 月 30 日以上的拖欠率也仍低於 2023 年。

In summary, we continue to feel good about the quality of the credit we are originating. As you can see on slide 12, we've had several consecutive quarters of origination levels that were lower than the prior year's levels due to conservative underwriting and our focus on improving our loss rates. However, we are now ready to return to originations growth within our targeted credit quality range. And I'm pleased that at $480 million during Q3, originations were virtually flat year-over-year. This is despite continuing to derisk the business by decreasing average loan sizes, which are down 18% year-over-year from $3,975 to $3,244.

總之，我們仍然對我們所發放的信貸品質感到滿意。正如您在投影片 12 中看到的那樣，由於保守的承保和我們專注於提高損失率，我們連續幾個季度的原始水平低於去年的水平。然而，我們現在已準備好在目標信貸品質範圍內恢復原始成長。我很高興第三季的營收為 4.8 億美元，與去年同期相比幾乎持平。儘管平均貸款規模持續下降，從 3,975 美元降至 3,244 美元，年減 18%，但仍繼續降低業務風險。

You should expect our 4Q '24 originations to grow not only sequentially in line with seasonal patterns, but also to grow in the 10% range year-over-year, which is another sign of the progress we're making in our business recovery. It is also currently our intent to grow full-year 2025 originations above 2024 levels.

您應該預期我們 24 年第 4 季的出貨量不僅會按照季節性模式連續成長，而且還會年增 10%，這是我們業務復甦取得進展的另一個跡象。目前我們還打算將 2025 年全年的投放量提高到 2024 年的水平以上。

I'd also like to further highlight the significant progress we've made on cost reduction actions. We are much more efficient today than we were when we initiated significant cost reductions in the third quarter of 2022. Since then, our adjusted operating expenses have declined by 34%, while our adjusted OpEx ratio as a percentage of owned principal balance has improved by 860 basis points.

我還想進一步強調我們在降低成本行動方面取得的重大進展。與 2022 年第三季開始大幅削減成本時相比，我們現在的效率要高得多。自那時起，我們調整後的營運費用下降了 34%，而我們調整後的營運支出佔自有本金餘額的百分比則提高了 860 個基點。

Our adjusted OpEx ratio of 13.9% remained close to last quarter's record low level. We expect to continue to make improvements in our adjusted OpEx ratio in the future through continued strong financial discipline, along with a return to originations growth. And as Raul said, we are reiterating our expectations to reduce GAAP operating expenses to $97.5 million or less by the fourth quarter.

調整後的營運支出率為 13.9%，仍接近上季歷史最低水準。我們預計未來將透過持續嚴格的財務紀律以及恢復原始成長來繼續改善調整後的營運支出比率。正如勞爾所說，我們重申我們的預期，即到第四季度將 GAAP 營運費用減少至 9,750 萬美元或更少。

Regarding our capital and liquidity, as shown on slide 14, net cash flows from operating activities for the third quarter were a record $108 million, up 1% year-over-year. As of September 30, total cash was $229 million, of which $72 million was unrestricted and $157 million was restricted. I'd note that these liquidity levels are after having paid down $17 million of corporate debt during the quarter.

關於我們的資本和流動性，如投影片 14 所示，第三季經營活動產生的淨現金流量達到創紀錄的 1.08 億美元，年增 1%。截至9月30日，現金總額為2.29億美元，其中7,200萬美元為非限制性現金，1.57億美元為限制性現金。我要指出的是，這些流動性水準是在本季償還了 1,700 萬美元的公司債務之後的。

Further bolstering our liquidity was $483 million in available funding capacity under our warehouse lines and remaining whole loan sale agreement capacity of $24 million. During the third quarter, we closed two new committed personal loan warehouse facilities totaling $552 million, We also executed a new $223 million ABS transaction that was 7 times oversubscribed and priced at an 8.07% weighted average interest rate, consistent with our unit economics targets.

倉庫線下的可用融資能力為 4.83 億美元，剩餘的整個貸款銷售協議能力為 2,400 萬美元，這進一步增強了我們的流動性。第三季度，我們關閉了兩項新的承諾個人貸款倉庫設施，總額達5.52 億美元。 8.07%，與我們的單位經濟目標一致。

And in October, we facilitated a securitization of our whole loans purchased by Castlelake, which priced at a 7.27% weighted average interest rate. While the only economics Oportun will receive from the latter ABS transaction is a servicing fee, the further tightening of credit spreads for ABS backed by our loans should benefit us in the future.

10 月份，我們推動了 Castlelake 購買的全部貸款的證券化，其加權平均利率為 7.27%。雖然 Oportun 從後者 ABS 交易中獲得的唯一經濟效益是服務費，但由我們的貸款支持的 ABS 信用利差的進一步收緊應該會讓我們在未來受益。

We expect the corporate debt refinancing that closes this week will improve Oportun's operational and balance sheet flexibility. We are committed to deleveraging, which we believe is in the best interest of shareholders as part of the refinancing.

我們預計本週結束的企業債務再融資將改善 Oportun 的營運和資產負債表靈活性。我們致力於去槓桿化，我們相信作為再融資的一部分，這符合股東的最佳利益。

At closing, we will repay our residual financing facility, which had a $22 million outstanding balance as of the end of 3Q, and we are required to pay down without prepayment penalty at least $40 million under the new term loan facility by January 31, 2026. We also have the option to repay without prepayment penalty an additional $10 million under the new term loan facility at any time and another $10 million after the first anniversary of its closing.

交易完成時，我們將償還剩餘融資額度，截至第三季末，該融資額度的未償餘額為2,200 萬美元，並且我們需要在2026 年1 月31 日之前根據新定期貸款額度支付至少4,000 萬美元，無需支付預付款罰金。我們還可以選擇在新的定期貸款安排下隨時額外償還 1000 萬美元，無需提前還款罰款，並在交割一周年之後再償還 1000 萬美元。

The required amortization, combined with the voluntary penalty-free prepayments will allow us to reduce our corporate debt balance to $175 million prior to the new term loan maturity. Given that we have consistently repaid $5.7 million of corporate debt every month this year, we are confident in our ability to continue to deliver over the next two years.

所需的攤銷，加上自願的免罰金預付款，將使我們能夠在新定期貸款到期之前將公司債務餘額減少至 1.75 億美元。鑑於我們今年每月持續償還 570 萬美元的企業債務，我們對未來兩年繼續交付的能力充滿信心。

Turning now to our guidance, as shown on slide 15, our outlook for the fourth quarter is total revenue of $246 million to $250 million. Annualized net charge-off rate of 11.8%, plus or minus 15 basis points, adjusted EBITDA of $28 million to $30 million. The potentially slight sequential decline in total revenue implied by our 4Q guidance from 3Q's $250 million total revenue is driven primarily by the sale of the credit card portfolio.

現在轉向我們的指導，如幻燈片 15 所示，我們對第四季度的總收入展望為 2.46 億至 2.5 億美元。年化淨沖銷率為 11.8%，加減 15 個基點，調整後 EBITDA 為 2,800 萬至 3,000 萬美元。我們的第四季指引暗示總收入可能比第三季 2.5 億美元的總收入略有下降，這主要是由信用卡投資組合的銷售推動的。

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to slightly decline from 3Q due to a seasonal increase in marketing expenditures. We expect our fourth quarter to feature strong year-over-year improvement in our annualized net charge-off rate, where our midpoint guidance implies a reduction of approximately 50 basis points from last year's 2.3%. We also expect adjusted EBITDA to markedly improve year-over-year, where our midpoint guidance implies an almost tripling from last year's $10 million.

由於行銷支出季節性增加，調整後 EBITDA 預計較第三季略有下降。我們預計第四季的年化淨沖銷率將同比強勁改善，我們的中點指引意味著比去年的 2.3% 下降約 50 個基點。我們也預計調整後的 EBITDA 將比去年同期顯著改善，我們的中點指引意味著比去年的 1000 萬美元幾乎增加了兩倍。

Furthermore, we expect our GAAP EPS and adjusted EPS to markedly increase year-over-year. I'd note that although we expect Q4 originations to grow in the 10% range, we expect the average daily principal balance in Q4 to decline in the 8% range year-over-year as a result of prior credit tightening actions.

此外，我們預計我們的 GAAP 每股盈餘和調整後每股盈餘將較去年同期顯著成長。我要指出的是，儘管我們預計第四季度的貸款發放量將增長 10% 的範圍，但由於先前的信貸緊縮行動，我們預計第四季度的日均本金餘額將同比下降 8% 的範圍。

As you can see on slide 16, where our loan portfolio to remain flat or to grow by 10% year-over-year during 4Q '24, our expectations for our annualized net charge-off rate would be 90 basis points and 190 basis points lower, respectively. I'd also like to call out that we expect 4Q '24 interest expense to be around $75 million, up from $56 million in Q3 due to a one-time $18 million non-cash charge from the write-off of deferred financing costs related to the repayment of the current corporate financing facility as part of the refinancing, and to a lesser degree, the repayment of the residual financing facility. This will impact our Q4 GAAP financial results but will be excluded from our adjusted results.

正如您在投影片 16 中看到的那樣，我們的貸款組合在 2024 年第四季度保持平穩或同比增長 10%，我們對年化淨沖銷率的預期將為 90 個基點和 190 個基點分別較低。我還想指出的是，我們預計24 年第四季的利息支出約為7,500 萬美元，高於第三季的5,600 萬美元，因為沖銷相關遞延融資成本產生了一次性1,800 萬美元的非現金費用。這將影響我們第四季度的 GAAP 財務業績，但將不包括在我們的調整後業績中。

Our guidance for the full year is total revenue of $997 million to $1.001 billion. Annualized net charge-off rate of 12%, plus or minus 10 basis points, adjusted EBITDA of $92 million to $94 million. Our full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA expectation at the midpoint of $93 million reflects a level almost 5 times last year's $19 million. Our revised full year 2024 guidance reflects 10 basis points of improvement in our annualized net charge-off rate expectation at the midpoint from what we previously guided to in August.

我們對全年的總收入指引為 9.97 億美元至 10.01 億美元。年化淨沖銷率為 12%，加減 10 個基點，調整後 EBITDA 為 9,200 萬美元至 9,400 萬美元。我們對 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 的預期為 9,300 萬美元，幾乎是去年 1,900 萬美元的 5 倍。我們修訂後的 2024 年全年指引反映了我們的年化淨沖銷率預期比我們先前 8 月的指引提高了 10 個基點，處於中點。

Before handing the call back to Raul, I'd like to update you on our progress towards our long-term unit economics targets. While our long-term targets are GAAP targets, I'll be using adjusted metrics actuals for comparison since they remove nonrecurring items and provide a better sense of our future run rate.

在將電話轉回勞爾之前，我想向您介紹我們在實現長期單位經濟效益目標方面的最新進展。雖然我們的長期目標是 GAAP 目標，但我將使用調整後的指標實際值進行比較，因為它們刪除了非經常性項目，並且可以更好地了解我們未來的運行率。

We made solid progress in Q3 as evidenced by our 11 percentage-point year-over-year improvement in adjusted ROE, driven principally by cost reductions. We will continue to focus on improving our credit performance, reducing expenses as a percentage of owned principal balance and reducing leverage on our journey to reach our 20% to 28% ROE target.

我們在第三季取得了堅實的進展，調整後的淨資產收益率年增了 11 個百分點，這主要是由於成本削減。我們將繼續專注於改善我們的信用表現，降低開支佔自有本金餘額的百分比，並降低槓桿率，以實現 20% 至 28% 的 ROE 目標。

Raul, back over to you.

勞爾，回到你身邊。

Thanks, Jonathan. To close, I'd like to emphasize three key points. First, we're pleased with the progress demonstrated by our third quarter performance and our momentum thus far into the second half. We expect to generate second half adjusted EBITDA levels at our guidance midpoint that are almost 90% higher than the first half and to also be markedly more profitable on an adjusted net income basis.

謝謝，喬納森。最後，我想強調三個要點。首先，我們對第三季業績所取得的進展以及下半年迄今的動能感到滿意。我們預計下半年調整後的 EBITDA 水準將比上半年高出近 90%，並且在調整後淨利潤的基礎上獲利也將顯著提高。

Second, with the completion of the credit card sale and refinancing of our corporate debt, we see no impediments to the full recovery of our business. And finally, our momentum is quite strong heading towards 2025, where we expect an improved credit performance, ongoing cost discipline and a return to originations growth will enable us to generate $1 to $1.25 in adjusted EPS and an adjusted ROE in the teens.

其次，隨著信用卡銷售和公司債務再融資的完成，我們認為業務的全面恢復不會遇到任何障礙。最後，我們邁向2025 年的勢頭相當強勁，我們預計信貸表現的改善、持續的成本控制和原始增長的回歸將使我們能夠產生1 至1.25 美元的調整後每股收益和十幾歲的調整後股本報酬率。

To wrap up, I want to thank all of our team members in our retail locations, our contact centers and our corporate employees for their commitment and contributions. With that, operator, let's open up the line for questions.

最後，我要感謝零售店、聯絡中心和公司員工的所有團隊成員的承諾和貢獻。那麼，接線員，讓我們打開提問線路。

John Hecht from Jefferies.

來自傑富瑞集團的約翰·赫克特。

Afternoon guys. Thanks very much for taking my questions. I think I have two for Jonathan and one for you, Raul. Two for Jonathan. Jonathan, you mentioned the fair value marks on the ABS should be wrapped up by the end of next year. Do you have a sense of what's left to mark on that based on the current mark versus, I guess, par?

下午好各位。非常感謝您回答我的問題。我想我有兩份給喬納森，一份給你，勞爾。喬納森的兩個。喬納森，您提到 ABS 的公允價值標記應該在明年年底前完成。根據目前的分數和我猜的標準分數，您是否知道還剩下什麼分數？

Yes. And we actually have a slide for that, John. Thank you for the question. If you take a look at -- it's at the back of the earnings deck, and I was just flipping there right now, sorry. It's slide 34 -- If you look at slide 34 in the middle, we have asset-backed notes at fair value, and it says cumulative fair value mark-to-market adjustment. And for the notes, that is $30.8 million, so $31 million, right?

是的。約翰，我們實際上有一張幻燈片。謝謝你的提問。如果你看一下——它在收益表的後面，我現在只是翻到那裡，抱歉。這是投影片 34——如果你看中間的投影片 34，我們有以公允價值計量的資產支持票據，上面寫著累積公允價值以市值調整。對於票據來說，這是 3080 萬美元，所以 3100 萬美元，對嗎？

So, we're not making any more -- we're not electing fair value for any new debt. So, this existing fair value debt is just going to pay down. It will be mostly paid off by the end of next year. And between then and now, I would expect to take most, if not all, of that mark.

所以，我們不會再製造更多的東西了──我們不會為任何新債務選擇公允價值。因此，現有的公允價值債務即將償還。大部分將於明年年底還清。從那時到現在，我希望能獲得大部分（如果不是全部）這個分數。

And then second question for you. You mentioned a priority of delivering the business. What do you guys look at in terms of leverage ratios or primary leverage ratios, I guess? And what would kind of the longer-term target be for that?

然後是第二個問題。您提到了交付業務的優先順序。我猜你們對槓桿率或主要槓桿率有何看法？長期目標是什麼？

Sure. So, if you take a look at slide 16 of our deck, it's where we have the unit economics model that we've been trying to -- that we're focused on. And -- thank you, Raul. And there, it indicates that our target leverage ratio, which we're currently above, is 6 to 1.

當然。所以，如果你看一下我們投影片的第 16 張，你會發現我們一直在努力建立單位經濟模型——我們重點關注的就是這個模型。還有──謝謝你，勞爾。這表明我們目前高於的目標槓桿率為 6 比 1。

And so, I mentioned in my remarks on the call, John, that this new facility, one of the things we really like about it is we can repay $60 million of the principal balance without paying a prepay penalty. So that would take the debt from $235 million to $175 million. We've talked about the fact that this year, every month, we've paid down $5.7 million of corporate debt principal. And our cash flow position is only going to be stronger -- cash generation is only going to be stronger next year given the increased profitability that we're projecting. So, if we pay down that debt to $175 million over time, we expect that we'll get to our target 6 to1 leverage ratio, and we're comfortable with that as a target for us.

因此，我在電話會議的演講中提到，約翰，我們真正喜歡這個新設施的原因之一是我們可以償還 6000 萬美元的本金餘額，而無需支付預付罰金。這樣債務就會從 2.35 億美元增加到 1.75 億美元。我們已經談到今年每個月我們都償還了 570 萬美元的公司債務本金。我們的現金流狀況只會變得更強——鑑於我們預計獲利能力的提高，明年的現金產生只會變得更強。因此，如果我們隨著時間的推移將債務償還到 1.75 億美元，我們預計槓桿率將達到 6 比 1 的目標，我們對此感到滿意。

Okay. And then, Raul, a question for you. You guys are leaning back into growth which is nice. And over time, you guys have built out channels. You got the Meta, you got DolEx, I think you have Barri. Maybe talk about -- and then you've got your own branches, you've got your own online presence. Maybe can you talk about where the kind of focus for the source of growth will come given all those opportunities?

好的。然後，勞爾，問你一個問題。你們正在恢復成長，這很好。隨著時間的推移，你們已經建立了管道。你有 Meta，你有 DolEx，我想你有 Barri。也許談論——然後你就有了自己的分支機構，你就有了自己的在線形象。也許您能談談考慮到所有這些機會，對成長來源的關注將在哪裡？

Thanks for the question, John. So, we feel that we've got all the things that we need to get back to target growth rates of 10% to 15% for the portfolio. To your point, our own kind of multichannel business, our physical stores, our contact centers, our digital channels, we know those are going to serve us well. And to answer your question, we think that really there is an opportunity to continue to lean into our own physical channels.

謝謝你的提問，約翰。因此，我們認為我們已經具備了使投資組合恢復 10% 至 15% 目標成長率所需的一切。就你的觀點而言，我們自己的多通路業務、我們的實體店、我們的聯絡中心、我們的數位管道，我們知道這些將為我們提供良好的服務。為了回答你的問題，我們認為確實有機會繼續依靠我們自己的實體管道。

One of the things that we'd like to do is to really put down some physical locations in some of the states where we don't have locations today. The bulk of our locations today are in California and Texas, but we're able to lend in over 40 states. So, one of the things that we're looking at next year is putting down some physical locations in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, Ohio.

我們想做的一件事就是在一些我們目前還沒有地點的州真正設立一些物理地點。目前，我們的大部分營業地點位於加州和德克薩斯州，但我們可以在 40 多個州提供貸款。因此，我們明年要考慮的事情之一是在喬治亞州、賓夕法尼亞州、俄亥俄州等州設立一些實體地點。

Think of all of the large populated states that were just a focus in the election, in this last election. We think there's an opportunity for us with physical locations to drive awareness, consideration and growth of our portfolio. On top of that, the Lending as a Service opportunity, like you said, DolEx, Barri, and now Western Union, we think that's also a great opportunity and something we're going to lean into next year.

想想在上次選舉中所有人口稠密的州都是選舉的焦點。我們認為，我們有機會透過實體地點來提高我們產品組合的知名度、考慮度和成長。最重要的是，貸款即服務機會，就像您所說的，DolEx、Barri 和現在的西聯匯款，我們認為這也是一個很好的機會，也是我們明年將重點關注的機會。

Okay, great. Thanks guys

好的，太好了。謝謝大家

(Operator Instructions) [Gashi] from Singular Research.

（操作員說明）[Gashi] 來自 Singular Research。

Congratulations on the quarter. Just in terms of customer acquisition, I mean, you just mentioned the physical location investment -- the CapEx into physical locations. I know it has been trending down to $118. So, can you provide more insight into the drivers, into the significant reduction in customer acquisition costs? Is it primarily a decline due to returning customers? Or is this a shift in marketing channel mix? And how is it going to trend looking into 2025?

恭喜本季。就客戶獲取而言，我的意思是，您剛剛提到了實體位置投資——實體位置的資本支出。我知道它已經下降到 118 美元。那麼，您能否更深入了解驅動因素以及客戶獲取成本的顯著降低？下降主要是因為回頭客造成的嗎？還是這是行銷通路組合的轉變？展望 2025 年，其趨勢將如何？

We think it's the product of a couple of things. First of all, we've reduced sales and marketing expenses. As we were looking at reducing OpEx throughout the business, one of the things that we also looked at was just sales and marketing expenses, which are down 8% year-over-year. You combine that then with the fact that V12, in particular, for new applicants that give us an opportunity to really lean into growth.

我們認為這是多種因素共同作用的結果。首先，我們減少了銷售和行銷費用。當我們考慮減少整個業務的營運支出時，我們也考慮了銷售和行銷費用，該費用比去年同期下降了 8%。然後，您將這一點與 V12 的事實結合起來，特別是對於新申請人而言，這為我們提供了真正實現成長的機會。

Overall growth in loans was 22% for the quarter. So, when you combine the lower OpEx, the higher growth in loans, that's what really drives that CAC to the record low of $118. As we do return to growth, we want to invest more in marketing. So, I'm not necessarily asking the team to continue to have us at these low levels. What we're really looking for is a return on that investment, right?

本季貸款整體成長 22%。因此，當您將較低的營運支出與較高的貸款成長結合時，這才是真正推動 CAC 降至 118 美元歷史低點的原因。當我們恢復成長時，我們希望在行銷方面投入更多。所以，我不一定要求團隊繼續讓我們保持在這麼低的水準。我們真正尋求的是投資回報，對嗎？

This is much more of an investment than an expense. So, as we mentioned during our comments, as we are now comfortable returning to growth, we'd really like to spend more. Along with the seasonal patterns of our business, we spend more in Q4 on marketing and really drive portfolio growth as opposed to driving CAC lower.

這與其說是一種支出，不如說是一種投資。因此，正如我們在評論中提到的，由於我們現在很樂意恢復成長，因此我們真的願意花更多錢。隨著我們業務的季節性模式，我們在第四季度在行銷上投入了更多資金，真正推動了投資組合的成長，而不是降低 CAC。

And my follow-up is on your EPS forecast for '25. It's between $1 and $1.25. Given your whole unit economics model and now your forecast for origination growth. What is primarily driving between the lower bound and the upper bound of that estimate?

我的後續行動是關於 25 年每股盈餘預測。價格在 1 美元到 1.25 美元之間。考慮到您的整個單位經濟模型以及現在您對發起成長的預測。該估計的下限和上限之間的主要驅動力是什麼？

Yeah. When we look at the adjusted EPS of $1 to $1.25, we're confident we can deliver that. So, there are a couple of things that we think are going to help us deliver that. Number one, this return to growth, right? That will help us drive the portfolio higher. It will start to really help with revenue. We're really proud of our Q2 -- I'm sorry, Q3 performance, in particular, the improvement in profitability when you think about the fact that revenue was down $18 million, and we still improved profitability. So, when we think about next year, driving originations growth, again, driving growth in the portfolio will help us reverse that trend in revenue. So that's number one.

是的。當我們看到 1 至 1.25 美元的調整後每股收益時，我們有信心實現這一目標。因此，我們認為有幾件事可以幫助我們實現這一目標。第一，經濟恢復成長，對嗎？這將有助於我們提高投資組合。它將開始真正有助於收入。我們對第二季度的表現感到非常自豪——對不起，第三季度的表現，尤其是盈利能力的改善，考慮到收入下降了 1800 萬美元，但我們的盈利能力仍然有所提高。因此，當我們考慮明年時，推動發起成長，再次推動投資組合的成長將有助於我們扭轉收入趨勢。所以這是第一。

Number two, losses. We expect losses to continue to come down. We shared that we expect losses to be in the 11% to 12% range. So that's certainly going to help us. And then finally, we're going to continue to be very disciplined in OpEx. So, when we look at an exit rate of $97.5 million, and we continue to be disciplined in that area, we think that's really what's going to give us the opportunity to deliver that adjusted EPS in that range.

第二，損失。我們預計損失將繼續下降。我們預計損失將在 11% 至 12% 範圍內。所以這肯定對我們有幫助。最後，我們將繼續在營運支出方面嚴格遵守紀律。因此，當我們看到 9750 萬美元的退出率，並且我們繼續在該領域遵守紀律時，我們認為這確實會讓我們有機會在該範圍內實現調整後的每股收益。

Awesome. Thank you again for taking my questions. I'll take the rest offline.

驚人的。再次感謝您回答我的問題。我會把剩下的部分離線。

(Operator Instructions) Vincent Caintic from BTIG.

（操作員指示）來自 BTIG 的 Vincent Caintic。

I definitely thanks for taking my questions. So actually, follow-up questions kind of related to the growth aspect of it. So, it's nice to be able to see that we're now at the inflection point for year-over-year growth rates. I was wondering, you mentioned in the prepared remarks that you are seeing macro improvements to the economy. And so, if you could maybe talk about the drivers of that growth rate specifically, if you could talk about your underwriting posture and any changes to that? And then I'll ask my related question now. As you're growing, what sort of, I guess, risk-adjusted margins and loss rate should we be expecting with the growth you're achieving?

我非常感謝您提出我的問題。所以實際上，後續問題與它的成長面有關。因此，很高興能夠看到我們現在正處於同比成長率的轉折點。我想知道，您在準備好的發言中提到，您看到經濟的宏觀改善。那麼，您是否可以具體談談該成長率的驅動因素，是否可以談談您的承保狀況以及對此有何變化？然後我現在會問我的相關問題。隨著你的成長，我想，隨著你所實現的成長，我們應該期望什麼樣的風險會調整利潤和損失率？

So, I'll take the beginning of those. I'll let Jonathan talk about the risk-adjusted margins. In terms of our return to growth throughout the year, we've been talking about the fact that there were a few things we were going to be looking for. Number one, we wanted to look at our own metrics. And when we look at where credit is trending, we look at the performance that we've been able to drive in delinquencies, we shared that 30-plus delinquencies were down 34 basis points year-over-year. That gives us confidence that our underwriting adjustments are working. V12, we shared in our comments that we started using V12 for underwriting the new applicants.

那麼，我將從這些開始。我會讓喬納森談談風險調整後的利潤。就我們全年恢復成長而言，我們一直在談論這樣一個事實：我們需要尋找一些東西。第一，我們想看看自己的指標。當我們觀察信貸趨勢時，我們會觀察我們在拖欠率方面所取得的表現，我們發現 30 多項拖欠率比去年同期下降了 34 個基點。這讓我們相信我們的承保調整正在發揮作用。V12，我們在評論中分享了我們開始使用 V12 來承保新申請人。

We started that at the beginning of the year, and we've been very, very pleased with the improvement in V12 versus V11. We're now using that for the returning population, which is historically where we've had 75% to 80% of our portfolio has been in the hands of returning borrowers. So, to be able to apply this much improved risk model, V12 relative to V11 to the returning portfolio, that's one of the things that gives us confidence in being able to return back to growth. So, our internal metrics are one of the things we were going to look at.

我們在今年年初就開始了這項工作，我們對 V12 相對於 V11 的改進感到非常非常滿意。我們現在將其用於回歸人群，從歷史上看，我們的投資組合中有 75% 至 80% 掌握在回歸借款人手中。因此，能夠將這種大幅改進的風險模型（相對於 V11 的 V12）應用到回報投資組合中，這是讓我們對能夠恢復成長充滿信心的因素之一。因此，我們的內部指標是我們要考慮的事情之一。

Number two, we wanted to continue to see inflation come down. And I think now there's broad recognition that the Fed has done a fantastic job trying to get that back to their target rate. So, to see inflation start to come down, we know gives more breathing room in the budgets of our borrowers. And then finally, we were going to look for other macro indicators that the economy would be constructive.

第二，我們希望通膨繼續下降。我認為現在人們普遍認識到聯準會在努力使其回到目標利率方面做得非常出色。因此，為了看到通貨膨脹開始下降，我們知道要給借款人的預算更多的喘息空間。最後，我們將尋找其他顯示經濟具有建設性的宏觀指標。

So, when we look at the unemployment rate and in particular, how strong the job market is for blue-collar workers and we look at fuel prices, fuel prices continue to be low. We know that's one of the things that also makes a big difference in our borrowers' ability to make our payments and to be able to just make their paycheck stretch in all of the ways that they need, those are the things that really give us confidence returning to originations growth, our internal metrics and then what we see in the macro.

因此，當我們關注失業率，特別是藍領階級的就業市場有多強勁，以及燃料價格時，燃料價格仍然很低。我們知道，這也是對我們的借款人支付我們的付款能力以及能夠以他們需要的所有方式延長工資的能力產生重大影響的因素之一，這些才是真正給我們信心的事情回到起源增長、我們的內部指標以及我們在宏觀上看到的情況。

I'll pass it over to Jonathan now.

我現在就把它交給喬納森。

Thanks, Raul. So, Vincent, if you want to take a look at slide 17, which is our unit economics model, you asked about risk-adjusted margin and loss rates. So, we gave guidance for 2025 that we expect our annualized net charge-off rate to be between 11% and 12%. And then on the unit economics slide, right, as you've seen for several quarters now, we've had very resilient total revenue at around 36%. We've had stable cost of funds at 8%, and that takes us to a net interest margin before charge-offs of 28%. So, if we take that 28%, and we're 11% to 12% charge-offs for next year, that would imply 16% to 17% risk-adjusted NIM.

謝謝，勞爾。因此，Vincent，如果您想看投影片 17（我們的單位經濟模型），您會詢問風險調整保證金和損失率。因此，我們給出了 2025 年的指導，預計年化淨沖銷率將在 11% 至 12% 之間。然後，在單位經濟效益幻燈片上，正如您在幾個季度中看到的那樣，我們的總收入非常有彈性，約為 36%。我們的資金成本穩定在 8%，這使我們的沖銷前淨利差達到 28%。因此，如果我們採用 28%，明年的沖銷額為 11% 到 12%，這意味著風險調整後的淨利差為 16% 到 17%。

(technical difficulty) And so, it sounds like -- so you have significant model improvements and you're now reflecting that. There's some macro improvements here, but you're not really changing, I guess, your underwriting posture in terms of loosening up a lot. So, it's your model improvements and the macro improvement and you're still otherwise remaining tight. So, it sounds like there's opportunities basically, and you're still being very conservative, if I'm understanding that correctly.

（技術難度）所以，聽起來 - 所以你有重大的模型改進，你現在正在反映這一點。這裡有一些宏觀改進，但我想，你並沒有真正改變你的核保態度，因為放鬆了很多。所以，這是你的模型改進和宏觀改進，否則你仍然保持緊張。所以，聽起來基本上是有機會的，但如果我理解正確的話，你仍然非常保守。

That's absolutely right. We would not characterize this growth as being driven by opening up from a portfolio perspective. What we've seen is the decisions that we've made over the last few quarters in terms of reducing OpEx, in terms of having a tight credit box, all of that is creating a trajectory for the business where by now adding a bit of growth with the current credit box by adding a bit of growth, what we're able to do is to drive improved profitability.

這是絕對正確的。從投資組合的角度來看，我們不會將這種成長視為由開放所推動的。我們看到的是過去幾季我們在減少營運支出、嚴格信貸方面做出的決定，所有這些都為業務創造了一條軌跡，現在增加了一些透過增加一點成長，我們能夠做的是提高獲利能力。

So, when we look at 2025, as we've shared now with the preliminary view into 2025, we expect that those lower losses, that ongoing low level of OpEx, combined with a bit of growth really delivers that improved profitability next year relative to our really good performance this year.

因此，當我們展望2025 年時，正如我們現在對2025 年的初步看法所分享的那樣，我們預計，較低的損失、持續較低的營運支出水平，再加上一點增長，確實會帶來明年相對於我們今年的表現非常好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.

我們的問答環節結束了。我想重新發言以徵求進一步的意見或結束意見。

I want to thank everyone once again for joining us on today's call, and we look forward to speaking with you again soon.

我想再次感謝大家參加今天的電話會議，我們期待很快再次與您交談。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。