Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Opendoor Technologies' first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Opendoor Technologies 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Kimberly Niehaus, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係部金伯利·尼豪斯 (Kimberly Niehaus)。請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon. Details of our results and additional management commentary are available in our earnings release and Shareholder Letter, which can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.opendoor.com. Please note that this call will be simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations section of the company's corporate website.

謝謝，下午好。我們的績效詳情和其他管理評論可在我們的收益報告和股東信中找到，您可以在我們網站 investor.opendoor.com 的投資者關係部分找到。請注意，本次電話會議將在公司網站的投資者關係部分同時進行網路直播。

Before we start, I would like to remind you that the following discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. All statements other than statements of historical fact are statements that could be deemed forward-looking, including, but not limited to, statements regarding Opendoor's financial condition, anticipated financial performance, business strategy and plans, market opportunity and expansion and management objectives for future operations.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，以下討論包含聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。除歷史事實陳述以外的所有陳述均可視為前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於有關 Opendoor 的財務狀況、預期財務業績、業務戰略和計劃、市場機會以及未來運營的擴張和管理目標的陳述。

These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here. Additional information that could cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Opendoor's most recent annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, as updated by our periodic reports filed after that 10-K.

這些聲明既不是承諾也不是保證，不應過度依賴它們。此類前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與此處討論的結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述不同的其他信息，請參閱 Opendoor 最新的 10-K 表格年度報告（截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日）的“風險因素”部分，該報告由我們在該 10-K 之後提交的定期報告更新。

Any forward-looking statements made on this conference call, including responses to your questions, are based on management's reasonable current expectations and assumptions as of today, and Opendoor assumes no obligation to update or revise them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. The following discussion contains references to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

本次電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述，包括對您的問題的答复，均基於管理層截至今天的合理當前預期和假設，Opendoor 不承擔更新或修改這些陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件還是其他原因，除非法律另有規定。以下討論包含對某些非 GAAP 財務指標的引用。

The company believes these non-GAAP financial measures are useful to investors as supplemental operational measurements to evaluate the company's financial performance. For a reconciliation of each of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP metric, please see our website at investor.opendoor.com.

該公司認為，這些非公認會計準則財務指標對投資者而言是有用的，可以作為評估公司財務表現的補充營運指標。若要了解這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對照表，請造訪我們的網站 investor.opendoor.com。

I will now turn the call over to Carrie Wheeler, Chief Executive Officer of Opendoor.

現在我將電話轉給 Opendoor 執行長 Carrie Wheeler。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. At Opendoor, we remain relentlessly focused on our mission to reinvent residential real estate in the US, making it simpler, more convenient and more customer-centric. The strategy we're executing against is designed to take full advantage of the strengths we've built over the past decade and to position us for long-term success. We continue to operate in an extremely challenging macroeconomic environment with heightened uncertainty on the back of shifting economic policies and the evolving tariff landscape. Home sellers and buyers are taking a pause.

感謝大家今天加入我們。在 Opendoor，我們始終堅持不懈地專注於我們的使命，即重塑美國住宅房地產，使其變得更簡單、更方便、更以客戶為中心。我們正在實施的策略旨在充分利用我們在過去十年中累積的優勢，並為我們長期成功做好準備。我們繼續在極具挑戰性的宏觀經濟環境中運營，經濟政策的變化和關稅格局的演變導致不確定性加劇。房屋賣家和買家都暫停交易。

Mortgage rates are back up over 7%, clearance rates are down nearly 25% year-over-year and delistings are up over 30% as sellers continue to exit the market. Despite these headwinds, our focus hasn't changed. We're here to give customers certainty, convenience and choice, especially when they needed most. We enter 2025 with a clear plan to drive towards profitability while strengthening our product experience and leadership position. Our progress is reflected in our first quarter results, where our acquisition volumes, revenue, contribution profit and adjusted EBITDA demonstrate strong execution amidst a challenging macro backdrop.

由於賣家不斷退出市場，抵押貸款利率回升超過 7%，清盤率較去年同期下降近 25%，退市率上升超過 30%。儘管面臨這些不利因素，我們的重點並未改變。我們致力於為客戶提供確定性、便利性和選擇，尤其是在他們最需要的時候。我們帶著明確的計劃邁入 2025 年，在加強我們的產品經驗和領導地位的同時，努力實現盈利。我們所取得的進展反映在第一季的業績中，在充滿挑戰的宏觀背景下，我們的收購量、收入、貢獻利潤和調整後的 EBITDA 表現出強勁的執行力。

And while we're focused on driving profitability, we're also investing in our future. Over the past decade, we've built a trusted category-defining platform that gives sellers the certainty of a cash offer. Now we're evolving into a platform where every seller can explore all their selling options, whether that's through a cash offer or listing with an agent.

在我們專注於提高獲利能力的同時，我們也在投資未來。在過去的十年中，我們建立了一個值得信賴的類別定義平台，為賣家提供現金報價的確定性。現在，我們正在發展成為一個平台，每個賣家都可以探索所有的銷售選擇，無論是透過現金報價還是透過代理商上市。

We are expanding how we go to market, leveraging our unique platform and relationships. Today, a meaningful percentage of our acquisitions come to us through an agent who is bringing their customer to Opendoor and requesting a cash offer. For many listing agents, having a cash offer as part of a complete set of selling solutions is considered table stakes. And we've built a platform that allows them to provide a certain and seamless path by fulfilling a cash offer on behalf of their client. We are taking our existing vibrant partnership with agents and flipping the script, so to speak, by sending Opendoor customer referrals to vetted agent partners.

我們正在擴大我們的市場進入方式，利用我們獨特的平台和關係。如今，我們很大一部分的收購都是透過代理商進行的，代理商會把客戶帶到 Opendoor 並要求現金報價。對於許多上市代理商來說，將現金報價作為整套銷售解決方案的一部分被視為必不可少的條件。我們建立了一個平台，使他們能夠代表客戶履行現金報價，從而提供確定且無縫的​​途徑。我們正在利用我們與代理商現有的活躍合作關係，透過將 Opendoor 客戶推薦發送給經過審查的代理商合作夥伴來改變劇本。

Those agents are able to talk through the options that a customer has to sell from an Opendoor cash offer to a full listing. In doing so, they're meeting the customer where they are, and they're able to put all options in context relative to that particular seller's needs. We are piloting this experience in select markets and are encouraged by the early indicators we're seeing. Customers are receptive to having a local expert explain their options. Agents benefit from high-intent seller referrals from our marketing engine and are able to bring all options to the table in assessing the smartest move for the customer.

這些代理商能夠與客戶討論從 Opendoor 現金報價到完整上市的各種出售選項。透過這樣做，他們可以在客戶所在地與客戶會面，並能夠根據特定賣家的需求提供所有選項。我們正在特定市場試行這種體驗，並對所見的早期指標感到鼓舞。客戶願意讓當地專家解釋他們的選擇。代理商可以從我們的行銷引擎中獲得高意向賣家的推薦，並且能夠將所有選項擺到桌面上，評估對客戶最明智的舉措。

And Opendoor has the opportunity to improve conversion, whether it's higher conversion for cash offers or our participation in the listing, which in turn generates asset-light revenue for us. Moreover, we're able to deliver final underwritten offers faster by allowing agents to do an in-home assessment in their first meeting by leveraging our platform. There will continue to be customers who come to Opendoor directly and want the self-serve experience that we have pioneered, but we expect many customers will benefit from having an adviser help them navigate the selling process. We will see how our pilot evolves, but we believe that this channel will allow us to serve more sellers, monetize a greater portion of our funnel and leverage our platform to drive more asset-light business. In addition to how we've expanded the consumer experience we are continuing to operate the business with four core priorities.

Opendoor 有機會提高轉換率，無論是現金報價的更高轉換率還是我們參與上市，這反過來又為我們帶來輕資產收入。此外，我們利用我們的平台允許代理商在第一次會議中進行上門評估，從而能夠更快地提供最終承保報價。仍會有客戶直接來到 Opendoor 並希望獲得我們開創的自助服務體驗，但我們預計許多客戶將受益於顧問幫助他們完成銷售流程。我們將觀察我們的試點如何發展，但我們相信這個管道將使我們能夠服務更多的賣家，將我們的漏斗的更大一部分貨幣化，並利用我們的平台推動更多的輕資產業務。除了擴大消費者體驗之外，我們還將繼續以四個核心重點來經營業務。

First, we're maintaining our pricing discipline. We're monitoring macro conditions closely given an uncertain market and heightened volatility and against that backdrop, have been proactively increasing our spreads. While that does impact acquisition growth, we believe it's the right trade-off to protect contribution margin. Second, we are working on improving conversion. In addition to the channel expansion I just spoke about, we are making enhancements to our pricing models, including refining how we allocate spreads and improving price segmentation with the goal of enhancing our conversion performance.

首先，我們保持定價紀律。鑑於市場不確定且波動性加劇，我們正在密切關注宏觀環境，並在此背景下積極增加利差。雖然這確實會影響收購成長，但我們認為這是保護貢獻利潤率的正確權衡。第二，我們正在努力提高轉換率。除了我剛才提到的通路擴展之外，我們還在改進我們的定價模型，包括改進價差分配方式和改善價格細分，以提高我們的轉換率。

In Q1, we continue to add new features to our algorithms like school district quality and active competition. Third, we're allocating our marketing investment to better align with seasonal housing dynamics and spreads. As we shared last quarter, we believe this shift in our advertising strategy drives greater spend efficiency. Consistent with our strategy, we expect our marketing spend in Q2 to be meaningfully lower than in Q1. We'll continue to deploy dollars with a focus on efficiency and impact.

在第一季度，我們繼續為我們的演算法添加新功能，例如學區品質和積極競爭。第三，我們正在分配我們的行銷投資，以更好地適應季節性住房動態和價差。正如我們上個季度所分享的，我們相信廣告策略的這種轉變可以提高支出效率。根據我們的策略，我們預計第二季的行銷支出將明顯低於第一季。我們將繼續投入資金，注重效率和影響力。

And finally, we are highly focused on delivering our product as efficiently as possible. We're building a leaner, more agile organization. Fixed operating expenses in Q1 were $19 million lower or down 33% versus a year ago. These cost efficiencies paired with our margin improvements should position us to reduce adjusted net losses in 2025 as compared to last year. We have built a powerful platform, and now we're working to unlock even more value for customers and agents, all while keeping our sights firmly on profitability.

最後，我們高度重視盡可能有效率地交付我們的產品。我們正在建立一個更精簡、更敏捷的組織。第一季固定營運費用比去年同期減少 1,900 萬美元，降幅達 33%。這些成本效率加上我們的利潤率提高應該使我們能夠與去年相比減少 2025 年的調整後淨虧損。我們已經建立了一個強大的平台，現在我們正在努力為客戶和代理商釋放更多價值，同時牢牢專注於獲利能力。

We look forward to sharing more as we progress throughout the year.

我們期待隨著全年的進展分享更多內容。

And with that, I will turn it over to Selim for the financial overview.

接下來，我將把財務概覽交給 Selim。

Thank you, Carrie. At the beginning of the year, we shared our commitment to drive towards profitable, sustainable growth. Our first quarter results reflect progress towards that objective. We delivered $1.2 billion of revenue in the first quarter, roughly in line with the same quarter in 2024, representing 2,946 homes sold. On the acquisition side, we purchased 3,609 homes in the first quarter, up 4% versus the same quarter last year.

謝謝你，嘉莉。今年年初，我們分享了推動獲利和永續成長的承諾。我們第一季的業績反映了我們朝著這一目標取得的進展。我們在第一季實現了 12 億美元的收入，與 2024 年同期大致持平，售出 2,946 套房屋。在收購方面，我們在第一季購買了 3,609 套房屋，比去年同期成長了 4%。

Growth in acquisitions was enabled by enhancements to our product flow and improvements to our pricing models, which drove better conversion despite higher spreads. Contribution profit was $54 million in the first quarter versus $57 million in Q1 '24 or a contribution margin of 4.7%. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $30 million in the first quarter, down significantly from a loss of $50 million in Q1 '24. This improvement in adjusted EBITDA was primarily driven by reductions in adjusted operating expenses, which were $84 million in the first quarter, down from $107 million in Q1 '24. We continue to be focused on operating with greater efficiency and strong cost discipline.

收購的成長得益於我們產品流程的增強和定價模型的改進，儘管價差較大，但轉換率仍然更高。第一季貢獻利潤為 5,400 萬美元，而 24 年第一季為 5,700 萬美元，貢獻利潤率為 4.7%。第一季調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 3,000 萬美元，較 2024 年第一季的 5,000 萬美元虧損大幅下降。調整後 EBITDA 的改善主要得益於調整後營運費用的減少，第一季調整後營運費用為 8,400 萬美元，低於 24 年第一季的 1.07 億美元。我們將繼續致力於提高營運效率並嚴格控製成本。

Turning to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with 7,080 homes, representing $2.4 billion in net inventory, up 24% from the prior year. We also had $1 billion in total capital, primarily comprised of $559 million in unrestricted cash and $350 million of equity invested in homes net of inventory valuation adjustments. At quarter end, we had $7.9 billion in nonrecourse asset-backed borrowing capacity, of which total committed borrowing capacity was $2.3 billion. In the first quarter, we renewed 3 revolving credit facilities and term debt facility at consistent or improved credit spreads, while both of our mezzanine facilities were extended through at least 2027.

轉向我們的資產負債表。本季末，我們共有 7,080 套住房，淨庫存價值 24 億美元，比上年增長 24%。我們也擁有 10 億美元的總資本，主要包括 5.59 億美元的非限制性現金和 3.5 億美元的投資於房屋的股權（扣除庫存估值調整）。截至本季末，我們的無追索權資產支持借款能力為 79 億美元，其中承諾借款能力總額為 23 億美元。在第一季度，我們以一致或改善的信用利差續簽了 3 筆循環信貸額度和定期債務額度，而我們的兩項夾層信貸額度均至少延長至 2027 年。

The successful extension of these credit facilities reflects the continued confidence and support of our capital partners. Looking forward, as Carrie mentioned, the housing market has further deteriorated since the beginning of the year. Persistently high mortgage rates continue to suppress buyer demand, and we are seeing more sellers pull out of their contracts than we normally would expect, which speaks to the uncertainty that sellers have at this moment. Our outlook assumes that these headwinds will continue to impact our performance in the near term. Our outlook for the second quarter of 2025 includes the following: revenue is expected to be between $1.45 billion and $1.525 billion; contribution profit between $65 million and $75 million, which implies a contribution margin of 4.5% to 4.9%; adjusted EBITDA between $10 million and $20 million, representing a $20 million year-over-year improvement at the midpoint of our guidance, marking a return to positive quarterly adjusted EBITDA for the first time in 3 years; adjusted operating expenses of approximately $55 million; and noncash stock-based compensation expense between $13 million and $15 million, which represents a decline of over 50% year over year.

這些信貸安排的成功延長反映了我們資本合作夥伴的持續信心和支持。展望未來，正如 Carrie 所提到的，自今年年初以來，房地產市場進一步惡化。持續的高抵押貸款利率繼續抑制買家的需求，我們看到越來越多的賣家退出合同，這說明賣家目前存在不確定性。我們的展望是，這些不利因素將在短期內持續影響我們的業績。我們對 2025 年第二季度的展望包括以下內容：預計收入在 14.5 億美元至 15.25 億美元之間；貢獻利潤在 6,500 萬美元至 7,500 萬美元之間，這意味著貢獻利潤率為 4.5% 至 4.9%；調整後的 EBITDA 在 1000 萬美元至 2000 萬美元之間，比去年同期增長 2000萬美元（基於我們預期的中位數），這是季度調整後 EBITDA 三年來首次恢復正值；調整後的營運費用約為 5500 萬美元；非現金股票薪酬支出在 1300 萬美元至 1500 萬美元之間，同比下降超過 50%。

Looking a bit deeper at our operating expense guidance, we are assuming a significant sequential step down in marketing spend given typical seasonal dynamics and spreads. Additionally, our operating expense includes timing adjustments related to changes in inventory levels. In Q2, we expect resales to outpace acquisitions, which will reduce our inventory balance and result in a favorable adjustment to operating expenses on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Finally, we expect home acquisitions of approximately 1,700 in the second quarter. Our acquisition outlook is informed by two key factors: higher spread levels and lower marketing spend.

深入研究我們的營運費用指引，考慮到典型的季節性動態和利差，我們假設行銷支出將大幅連續下降。此外，我們的營運費用包括與庫存水準變化相關的時間調整。在第二季度，我們預計轉售量將超過收購量，這將減少我們的庫存餘額，並導致營業費用較上季出現有利的調整。最後，我們預計第二季房屋收購量約為 1,700 套。我們的收購前景取決於兩個關鍵因素：更高的利差水準和更低的行銷支出。

With respect to spreads, we expect to continue to operate at these elevated levels with the intent of focusing on margin improvement and the reduction in marketing spend will further impact acquisitions. Given our focus on efficiency and current market dynamics, we believe this is a prudent approach to managing our business at this time.

就利差而言，我們預計將繼續在這些較高水平上運營，目的是專注於提高利潤率，而行銷支出的減少將進一步影響收購。鑑於我們對效率和當前市場動態的關注，我們認為這是目前管理業務的審慎方法。

This slowdown in acquisitions is expected to put pressure on our top line in the back half of the year, with revenue expected to decline on a year-over-year basis in the third and fourth quarters, all else equal. However, our goal is to deliver year-over-year contribution margin improvements in those quarters through continued operating efficiencies and wider spreads. And our ongoing cost discipline should result in an improvement in adjusted net losses in 2025 as compared to last year. Finally, the current macro volatility makes it challenging to predict how buyers and sellers will react or how market conditions will unfold. Given the consumer hesitation we're seeing, we feel a more cautious approach is warranted.

預計收購放緩將對我們下半年的營業收入造成壓力，在其他條件相同的情況下，預計第三季和第四季的營收將年減。然而，我們的目標是透過持續提高營運效率和擴大利差，實現這些季度的貢獻利潤率年增。我們持續的成本控制將使 2025 年的調整後淨虧損較去年有所改善。最後，當前的宏觀波動使得預測買家和賣家將如何反應或市場狀況將如何發展變得具有挑戰性。鑑於我們看到的消費者猶豫，我們認為有必要採取更謹慎的態度。

That said, we are closely monitoring market signals, and we are prepared to react to more favorable conditions. With that, I will ask the operator to open the line for questions.

話雖如此，我們正在密切關注市場訊號，並準備對更有利的條件做出反應。有了這些，我將請接線員開通熱線來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Dae Lee, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Dae Lee。

I have two. So first, Selim, on your comments about slowing down acquisition growth to about 1,700 in 2Q, is that kind of the right level to think about as you look into the back half of the year? Or is there some element of rebalancing the inventory to current housing market levels? And is this something that you're doing across all markets or just some markets? So curious if there are any markets that are working better for you right now?

我有兩個。首先，塞利姆，關於您所說的將第二季度的收購增長放緩至 1,700 家左右，當您展望今年下半年時，這是正確的水平嗎？或者是否存在一些將庫存重新平衡至當前房地產市場水準的因素？這是你們在所有市場還是僅在部分市場實施的做法？所以好奇目前是否有任何市場對您來說更有利？

And then secondly, how should we think about contribution margins of these newer homes that you're acquiring given the higher spreads? Is it going to be towards the medium to high end of that 5% to 7% target that you guys normally have?

其次，考慮到更高的利差，我們應該如何看待您所購買的這些新房的貢獻利潤率？它是否會達到你們通常設定的 5% 至 7% 目標的中高端？

Thanks for the questions, Dae. On the acquisition pace, what I would say is, all else equal, given that we are in a generally uncertain environment with respect to the outlook on the housing market, we would expect the normal seasonal pattern to look like a sort of a barbell similar to our marketing approach, where we are going to acquire more homes in Q1 and Q4 and fewer homes in Q2 and Q3. So on a sequential basis, going forward, we would expect a sequential decline from Q1 to Q2, relatively flat acquisitions from Q2 to Q3 and then a ramp up again in Q4. And based on what we see today and our expectation, again, with what we do know, we would expect a similar pattern for the second half of the year. With respect to contribution margins in Q2 and sort of the newer cohorts, I would first say that our expectation of contribution margin between 4.5% and 4.9% would be 4.7% at the midpoint, fairly consistent with Q1 and down roughly 1.5 points versus the prior year.

謝謝你的提問，Dae。關於收購速度，我想說的是，在其他條件相同的情況下，鑑於我們處於房地產市場前景普遍不確定的環境中，我們預計正常的季節性模式將類似於我們的營銷方法的槓鈴，我們將在第一季度和第四季度收購更多房屋，在第二季度和第三季度收購更少房屋。因此，從連續角度來看，我們預計未來第一季至第二季的收購將出現連續下滑，第二季至第三季的收購將相對持平，然後在第四季再次上升。根據我們今天看到的情況和預期，再次強調，根據我們所知道的情況，我們預計今年下半年也會出現類似的模式。關於第二季和較新季的貢獻利潤率，我首先要說的是，我們預期的貢獻利潤率在 4.5% 到 4.9% 之間，中間值為 4.7%，與第一季基本一致，比上年下降約 1.5 個百分點。

And simply put, this is a mix issue. The decline is really driven by older inventory at relatively lower margins, making up a larger share of homes sold in Q2, given the slower acquisition pace of new homes in Q2 that we're seeing. Setting that aside, we do see cohorts that we are acquiring in more recent times performing very well from a contribution margin perspective in the early resale days, but it's not enough to offset the prior year mix impact that I referenced.

簡單來說，這是一個混合問題。鑑於我們看到第二季新房收購速度放緩，導致這一下降的真正原因是利潤率相對較低的舊庫存，它們佔第二季度售出的房屋的較大份額。除此之外，我們確實看到，從早期轉售的貢獻利潤率角度來看，我們最近收購的群體表現非常出色，但這不足以抵消我提到的上一年組合的影響。

Ygal Arounian, Citigroup.

花旗集團的 Ygal Arounian。

First, just to follow up on that point on the older homes or maybe for Care also. Is that how you view the overall health of that book of inventory? How much wiggle room, I guess, is there in the valuation of those homes if we might continue to get continuing softness in the housing market and we see home prices start to fall. I think we're starting to see that in some geographies, particularly in the South. So have you factored that in?

首先，只是想跟進一下有關老房子或護理方面的問題。這就是您對庫存帳簿整體健康狀況的看法嗎？我想，如果房地產市場繼續疲軟，房價開始下跌，那麼這些房屋的估值還有多少迴旋餘地？我認為我們開始在某些地區看到這種情況，特別是在南方。那麼，您已經考慮到這一點了嗎？

Or how do you think about that? And then I have a follow-up.

或者您對此有何看法？然後我有一個後續問題。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Ygal. Look, our -- generally, what we see when we acquire cohorts is sort of a natural degradation. So the homes that sell sort of earlier tend to have higher margins and the longer we hold homes, obviously, the margins do decay. And that's a pretty typical pattern we've seen historically.

是的。謝謝你的提問，Ygal。看，我們的－一般來說，當我們獲得同伴時，我們看到的是一種自然的退化。因此，較早出售的房屋往往具有較高的利潤率，而我們持有房屋的時間越長，利潤率顯然就會下降。這是我們在歷史上見過的非常典型的模式。

I think the difference is now the homes that we're acquiring more recently are starting at a higher absolute contribution margin level and will decay from there, but that gives us some confidence on sort of year-over-year -- expected year-over-year improvements in contribution margin in the second half. With respect to sort of the valuation expectation, that is factored into our outlook. It's factored into how we set spreads. And obviously, pricing is a lever that we can use, but there's no incremental or additional pressure that we see because we do look out sort of on the resale environment and make an assumption on where we think homes will resell at relative to the current carrying costs that we have on the books.

我認為不同之處在於，我們最近收購的房屋的絕對貢獻利潤率一開始較高，然後會從那裡下降，但這讓我們對下半年貢獻利潤率的同比改善有了一些信心。關於估值預期，這已計入我們的展望。它是我們設定利差時會考慮的因素。顯然，定價是我們可以使用的槓桿，但我們沒有看到任何增量或額外的壓力，因為我們確實關注轉售環境，並根據我們帳面上的當前持有成本對房屋的轉售價格做出假設。

Okay. All right. And then I want to spend a little bit of time on the expansion of the agent partnership. So this feels maybe like a little bit more of a shift in the asset-light model than the products we've talked about in the past. So first, I just kind of want to understand a little bit more what this product is, how different it is?

好的。好的。然後我想花一點時間討論代理商合作關係的擴展。因此，與我們過去談論的產品相比，這可能更像是輕資產模式的轉變。所以首先，我只是想進一步了解這個產品是什麼，它有什麼不同？

Are you -- can you continue to operate with Opendoor and marketplace? Does it become part of this? You've had relationships with other brokerages. Is this a shift where you're working directly with the agents versus the brokerages? And then in terms of mix, what is it today?

您能繼續與 Opendoor 和市場合作嗎？它會成為其中的一部分嗎？您與其他經紀公司有過合作關係。這是您直接與代理商而不是經紀公司合作的轉變嗎？那麼就混合而言，今天的情況如何？

Because you talk about moving more in this direction and some people will continue to come direct, but it sounds like this might be at least your goal for it to be the kind of predominant channel. And then -- so what's the overall mix that you intend to get to as well? I know there was a bunch of questions in that, but just trying to understand how this plays out.

因為您談到要朝這個方向進一步發展，有些人會繼續直接來，但這聽起來至少可能是您的目標，即使其成為一種主要管道。那麼—您打算達到的整體組合是什麼樣的呢？我知道這其中有很多疑問，但我只是想了解事情會如何發展。

I'll try and hit all of those. And if I don't, Ygal, just feel free to come back at me at the end. If you step back for a second, I think it's important to appreciate that today, a meaningful percentage of our business already comes from agents, right? We have agents coming to us every day who want to bring a cash offer to their client because they want to give their client choice. And they understand the value prop of our cash offer and they're expert at converting it because that client is looking for convenience, certainty and speed.

我會盡力實現所有這些目標。如果我不這樣做，Ygal，請隨意在最後回來找我。如果你退一步想一想，我認為重要的是要認識到，今天我們的業務中很大一部分已經來自代理商，對嗎？每天都有代理商來找我們，他們想向客戶提供現金報價，因為他們想給客戶更多的選擇。他們了解我們現金報價的價值主張，並且擅長轉換它，因為客戶追求的是便利性、確定性和速度。

So those are agents coming to us today, and we understand that motion very, very well. We know who those power listing agents are across the 50 markets we're working in. We're kind of flipping the script now. Instead of agents coming to us with their customer, we are going in 11 markets where we're piloting, we are providing them our customer referrals, and we're doing it earlier in the customer engagement. We think that trusted agent partner then learns more about the sellers' needs.

今天來找我們的都是特工，我們非常非常理解這項動議。我們知道在我們所服務的 50 個市場中，哪些是有實力的上市代理商。我們現在正在翻轉劇本。我們不再讓代理商帶著客戶來找我們，而是在 11 個試點市場為他們提供客戶推薦，並在客戶互動的早期階段就這樣做。我們認為值得信賴的代理商合作夥伴會更了解賣家的需求。

They can provide more local expertise, and they're also completing an in-home assessment on our behalf. It's a way to improve conversion, speed delivery, more trust, aiding decision-making.

他們可以提供更多本地專業知識，也代表我們完成上門評估。這是一種提高轉換率、加快交付速度、增加信任、幫助決策的方法。

And ultimately, to your point, we believe this is a distribution channel and a partnership that will allow us to drive more asset-light revenue. To your question on mix, I don't know yet. I mean I do think there's a segment of customers that will very much want that direct-to-consumer self-service interaction that we pioneered. People will still come to us and want a cash offer and be very happy to do that on a one-to-one basis.

最後，正如您所說，我們相信這是一個分銷管道和合作夥伴關係，可以讓我們獲得更多輕資產收入。對於您關於混合的問題，我還不知道。我的意思是，我確實認為有一部分客戶非常希望獲得我們首創的直接面向消費者的自助服務互動。人們仍然會來找我們，希望獲得現金報價，並且很樂意以一對一的方式進行交易。

There are other customer types that we believe will benefit from having that additional agent relationship and advice. And we're going to be able to, I think, over time to figure out how we direct customers in the most optimal way. So it's early, I'd say. As I said, we're piloting, but in a meaningful number of markets. And over time, that will continue to evolve.

我們相信其他類型的客戶也將受益於額外的代理關係和建議。我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠找到如何以最佳方式引導客戶。所以我想說現在還太早。正如我所說，我們正在進行試點，但只在相當數量的市場進行。隨著時間的推移，這種情況將繼續發展。

Okay. I guess the only thing that you missed, Carrie, just for clarification on List with Opendoor and Marketplace, are those going to continue to operate? Are they going to be separate products? Are you kind of rolling it into this agent partnership thing as --

好的。我想你唯一錯過的一件事，Carrie，只是為了澄清一下 Opendoor 和 Marketplace 的列表，它們會繼續運作嗎？它們會是獨立的產品嗎？你會把它變成代理合作關係嗎？--

Yes. I mean I think about the new partnership as a channel strategy, go-to-market strategy and then it may end up with a listing. So for us, List with Opendoor, think about that as an end-of-funnel referral program really a customer comes to us for a cash offer. They go through the offer process, and we refer them at the end towards the partner agent to explore listing oftentimes with our backstop cash offer as something for them to think about as they test the market.

是的。我的意思是，我將新的合作關係視為一種通路策略、市場進入策略，最終可能會實現上市。因此對於我們來說，Opendoor 清單可以視為一個漏斗末端的推薦計劃，實際上客戶來找我們是為了獲得現金優惠。他們經歷了報價流程，最後我們把他們介紹給合作代理商，探討上市事宜，通常會提供我們的後備現金報價，作為他們在測試市場時考慮的事情。

So those two things are not mutually exclusive. We'll continue to have a list with Opendoor product across direct-to-consumer channels, and we will be powering more and more agents with the benefit of our marketing engine and our referrals. And that it may happen with a listing. It may have been a cash offer that's okay.

所以這兩件事並不互相排斥。我們將繼續在直接面向消費者的管道中提供 Opendoor 產品清單，並且我們將利用我們的行銷引擎和推薦為越來越多的代理商提供支援。並且這可能透過列表實現。這可能是現金報價，沒關係。

With respect to Marketplace, what I would say is we're currently today in Dallas, Charlotte, Raleigh, and we're holding there for now. Not a material contributor to revenue or earnings for us today. Given the pause and the pullback we're seeing in the housing market right now, we are going to evaluate the best path forward for Marketplace. I really believe that sitting here today, our new expanded partnership channel is a much more immediate path to allow us to serve more customers, monetize more of that funnel that we have and generate that incremental asset-light revenue we're looking for, and that's where we're going to put more and more of our energy and resources into most likely.

關於 Marketplace，我想說的是，我們目前在達拉斯、夏洛特、羅利，並且暫時在那裡運作。對我們目前的收入或收益沒有實質的貢獻。鑑於目前房地產市場的停頓和回落，我們將評估市場前進的最佳道路。我堅信，今天坐在這裡，我們新擴展的合作夥伴管道是一條更直接的途徑，可以讓我們服務更多的客戶，將我們現有的管道貨幣化，並產生我們所尋求的增量輕資產收入，而這正是我們最有可能投入越來越多的精力和資源的地方。

Nicholas Jones, Citizens JMP Securities.

尼古拉斯瓊斯 (Nicholas Jones)，Citizens JMP Securities。

This is Luke on for Nick. Can you just speak on further cost savings opportunities? You've made nice progress over the past few quarters, improving the cost structure. How much more room do you think you have there to gain additional efficiencies, particularly if macro worsens?

這是盧克代替尼克上場。能談談進一步節省成本的機會嗎？過去幾個季度，你們取得了良好的進展，改善了成本結構。您認為還有多少空間可以提高效率，特別是如果宏觀經濟惡化的話？

Yes. I'll take that, Luke. Thanks for the question. Look, we are still focused on optimizing our cost structure to drive durable cost savings beyond the progress we've already made. As a reminder, reflected in our Q1 results is a year-over-year fixed cost reduction of nearly $20 million or roughly 33% and our Q2 guidance implies a similar reduction.

是的。我接受，盧克。謝謝你的提問。你看，我們仍然專注於優化我們的成本結構，以在已經取得的進展的基礎上實現持久的成本節約。提醒一下，我們的第一季業績反映出固定成本年減近 2,000 萬美元或約 33%，而我們的第二季指引也暗示了類似的減少。

These are durable cost savings that are here to stay. Beyond these, we continue to look at various aspects of our business and our operations to drive more efficiency as we go forward, including infrastructure, including how we go to market and including the overall fixed cost base. At this point, I don't know that we would expect similar reductions beyond this, but we do think that there is more efficiency opportunity as we move forward. And to your question on what does this look like in a slower market, we have rightsized the business for a slower market. That has been the dynamic in which we've been operating for the last year plus.

這些是可以持久實現的成本節約。除此之外，我們將繼續專注於業務和營運的各個方面，以提高效率，包括基礎設施、我們如何進入市場以及整體固定成本基礎。目前，我不知道我們是否會預期會出現類似的減幅，但我們確實認為，隨著我們不斷前進，將會有更多的效率機會。至於您問的在市場放緩的情況下會是什麼樣子，我們已經針對放緩的市場調整了業務規模。這是我們過去一年多來一直運作的動力。

And as we look forward, the outlook will also inform how we think about the fixed cost base going forward. We do think that there are still opportunities ahead of us.

展望未來，前景也將告訴我們如何看待未來的固定成本基礎。我們確實認為我們面前仍有機會。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Ryan Tomasello, KBW.

瑞安·托馬塞洛（Ryan Tomasello），KBW。

Following up on the expense topic, can you just clarify how much of the $29 million quarter-over-quarter reduction implied in the OpEx guidance is driven by lower marketing expenses that are more seasonal and intentional based on the pullback you're implying on acquisitions? And how much is more of like a structural reduction?

繼續討論費用問題，您能否澄清一下，營運支出指引中暗示的 2900 萬美元環比減少中有多少是由較低的營銷費用推動的，這些費用更具季節性，並且是根據您暗示的收購回調而有意為之的？那麼，結構性削減的程度又有多少呢？

Yes. I would say that the majority of the reduction is in marketing. And the step down in marketing spend is driven by the typical seasonal dynamics that we've discussed before and the spread levels at which we're operating right now. Additionally, our operating expense includes timing adjustments related to changes in inventory levels. In Q2, we expect resales to outpace acquisitions, and that will reduce our inventory balance and result in a favorable adjustment to operating expenses on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

是的。我想說，大部分削減是在行銷方面。行銷支出的減少是由我們之前討論過的典型季節性動態以及我們目前的營運利差水準所驅動的。此外，我們的營運費用包括與庫存水準變化相關的時間調整。在第二季度，我們預計轉售量將超過收購量，這將減少我們的庫存餘額，並導致營業費用較上季出現有利的調整。

Between the two of those things, I would say those are the material contributors to the quarter-over-quarter variance. There will be some amount of further fixed cost reduction, but I would say that's less material in the face of the marketing move.

我認為這兩項因素是造成季度上季差異的重要因素。固定成本還會進一步減少，但我認為，相對於行銷措施而言，這不算什麼實質的措施。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then on the agent partnership program, can you just elaborate on what the economics are of this new arrangement where you'll be bringing the agent in early in the process? Is that just simply a referral fee, a success fee? Just trying to understand what that -- what those contribution -- incremental contribution margin look like on these types of partnership acquisitions?

好的。我很感激。然後關於代理合作計劃，您能否詳細說明一下這種新安排的經濟效益，即在流程早期引入代理？這僅僅是一筆介紹費或成功費嗎？只是想了解一下，在這些類型的合作收購中，這些貢獻──增量貢獻利潤率是什麼樣的？

Sure. I'd say, I mean, we're still piloting. But at a high level, we believe that this partnership channel will allow us to drive better conversion, I mean getting a better chance of getting that customer to a selling outcome that we participate in and generate that asset-light revenue for us. So on a listing, we would earn a share of that commission. On a cash offer, we earn the margin we earn today on that cash offer minus any referral fee that we would plan to pay to that agent.

當然。我想說的是，我們仍在試行。但從高層次來看，我們相信這種合作管道將使我們能夠推動更好的轉化，我的意思是，我們有更好的機會讓客戶獲得我們參與的銷售結果，並為我們創造輕資產收入。因此，透過上市，我們可以賺取一部分佣金。對於現金報價，我們賺取的是今天在該現金報價上賺取的利潤減去我們計劃支付給該代理商的推薦費。

And our hypothesis is that the incremental conversion benefits are likely to outweigh the cost of that additional referral fee.

我們的假設是，增量轉換收益可能會超過額外推薦費用的成本。

Benjamin Black, Deutsche Bank.

班傑明·布萊克，德意志銀行。

Just a quick follow-up on the agent partnership. I mean you spoke about the test markets. What signal are you looking for that would potentially drive a broader rollout of the partnership? And then also curious to hear if you have all the infrastructure, so to speak, to scale up the partnership? Or is there some go-to-market investments that are required going forward?

只是對代理合作關係進行快速跟進。我的意思是您談到了測試市場。您正在尋找什麼訊號來推動更廣泛的合作？我還想知道您是否擁有擴大合作夥伴關係所需的所有基礎設施？或者未來是否需要進行一些市場進入投資？

Yes, I'll do it in reverse order maybe. Like if you think about what we've built, we have built the brand, the marketing engine, this huge funnel of high-intent sellers, all the pricing capabilities in the transaction platform. And this is just a way for us to leverage all those capabilities via another go-to-market channel. So we have all those things built today. We're just leveraging them vis-a-vis our agent partnership relationships with people, many of whom we're interacting with already every day as they fulfill our cash offer.

是的，也許我會以相反的順序來做。如果你想想我們所建立的東西，我們建立了品牌、行銷引擎、這個龐大的高意向賣家管道、以及交易平台中的所有定價功能。這只是我們透過另一個市場進入管道利用所有這些功能的一種方式。所以我們今天就把這些東西都建起來了。我們只是利用他們與我們與人們建立的代理合作夥伴關係，其中許多人我們已經每天與他們互動，因為他們滿足了我們的現金報價。

So I think it's actually a pretty seamless move. We've built things like creating a platform to do assessments that we do or sometimes agents do on our behalf. So we are very set up and we've been working on that for a while to be able to expand it. So that's one.

所以我認為這其實是一個非常順利的舉措。我們已經建立了一個平台來進行評估，這些評估是我們自己做的，或者有時是代理商代表我們做的。所以我們已經做好了準備，並且已經為此努力了一段時間，以便能夠擴大它。這就是其中之一。

To your first part of your question, which was what are we looking for in terms of signal, ultimately, we'll be looking for conversion, whether that's incremental conversion, usually better to a cash offer and also incremental conversion to a listing outcome that we participate in.

對於您問題的第一部分，即我們在訊號方面尋找什麼，最終，我們將尋求轉換，無論是增量轉換，通常比現金報價更好，還是增量轉換為我們參與的上市結果。

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. Thank you all for your participation on today's call. This does conclude the call. You may now disconnect.

今天的問答環節到此結束。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。通話就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。