Old National Bancorp (ONBPP) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the Old National Bancorp first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. This call is being recorded and has been made accessible to the public in accordance with the SEC's Regulation FD. Corresponding presentation slides can be found on the Investor Relations page at oldnational.com and will be archived there for 12 months.

    歡迎參加 Old National Bancorp 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。本次通話內容已被錄音,並已根據美國證券交易委員會的公平揭露規則向公眾開放。相應的簡報投影片可以在 oldnational.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到,並將在那裡存檔 12 個月。

  • Management would like to remind everyone that certain statements on today's call may be forward-looking in nature and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results or outcomes to differ from those discussed. The company refers you to its forward-looking statement legend in the earnings release and presentation slides. The company's risk factors are fully disclosed and discussed within its SEC filings.

    管理階層想提醒大家,今天電話會議上的某些聲明可能具有前瞻性,並受某些風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響,這些因素可能導致實際結果與討論的結果不同。該公司請您參閱收益報告和簡報幻燈片中的前瞻性聲明說明。該公司的風險因素在其提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了充分披露和討論。

  • In addition, certain slides contain non-GAAP measures, which management believes provide more appropriate comparisons. These non-GAAP measures are intended to assist investors' understanding of performance trends. Reconciliations for these numbers are contained within the appendix of the presentation.

    此外,某些投影片包含非 GAAP 指標,管理層認為這些指標可以提供更合適的比較。這些非公認會計準則指標旨在幫助投資者了解績效趨勢。這些數字的對帳包含在簡報的附錄中。

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to Old National's Chairman and CEO, Jim Ryan for opening remarks. Mr. Ryan?

    現在,我想請 Old National 董事長兼執行長 Jim Ryan 致開幕詞。瑞安先生?

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning. Earlier today, Old National reported our first-quarter earnings. These better-than-expected results demonstrate our ability to navigate a challenging and uncertain economic environment, setting us up favorably as we move into the second quarter and importantly, as we prepare for the close integration of our partnership with Bremer Bank.

    早安.今天早些時候,Old National 公佈了我們的第一季財報。這些好於預期的業績證明了我們有能力應對充滿挑戰和不確定性的經濟環境,為我們進入第二季度做好了有利準備,更重要的是,為我們與布雷默銀行緊密合作做好準備。

  • Our strong deposit franchise and solid loan growth drove results for the past quarter. Our net interest income and margin performance met expectations. Noninterest income benefited from the gain on sale of some previously acquired loans and from higher fees from mortgages and service charges.

    我們強大的存款業務和穩健的貸款成長推動了上個季度的業績。我們的淨利息收入和利潤率表現符合預期。非利息收入受益於出售部分先前獲得的貸款的收益以及抵押貸款費用和服務費的增加。

  • Our disciplined expense management is reflected in our efficiency ratio. Net charge-offs were in the expected range. And we took the opportunity to increase our allowance for credit loss, incorporating global trade and economic uncertainty in our reserve level. Additionally, our tangible book value increased meaningfully compared to both the previous quarter and year over year.

    我們的嚴格費用管理體現在我們的效率比率上。淨沖銷額在預期範圍內。我們藉此機會增加了信貸損失準備金,將全球貿易和經濟不確定性納入我們的儲備水準。此外,我們的有形帳面價值與上一季及去年同期相比均有顯著成長。

  • In summary, our first-quarter results showcase our disciplined expense management, our ability to maintain margin through careful deposit pricing, growth in core deposits and loans, and strong credit quality. Despite the uncertain macroeconomic environment, we remain confident in our strength supported by our robust balance sheet, diverse revenue streams, and resilient Midwest markets, now bolstered by our partner, Bremer Bank.

    綜上所述,我們的第一季業績展現了我們嚴格的費用管理、透過謹慎的存款定價維持利潤的能力、核心存款和貸款的成長以及強勁的信貸品質。儘管宏觀經濟環境不確定,但我們仍然對自己的實力充滿信心,這得益於我們強勁的資產負債表、多樣化的收入來源和有韌性的中西部市場,現在又得到了我們的合作夥伴布雷默銀行的支持。

  • With over 190 years of experience navigating through uncertainty, we are committed to controlling what we can do to serve and support our clients, communities, and shareholders. Before I turn the call over to John, I also want to provide an update on our Bremer Bank partnership.

    我們擁有超過 190 年應對不確定性的經驗,致力於掌控我們所能做的事情來服務和支持我們的客戶、社區和股東。在我將電話轉給約翰之前,我還想介紹一下我們與布雷默銀行的合作關係的最新進展。

  • I'm excited to share that we have received all necessary regulatory approvals and anticipate a legal close date of May 1. We expect conversion of the banking centers and systems to occur in mid-October. We are thrilled to officially welcome our new clients and team members from across the Bremer footprint, including Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin.

    我很高興地告訴大家,我們已經獲得了所有必要的監管批准,預計法定截止日期為 5 月 1 日。我們預計銀行中心和系統的轉換將在十月中旬完成。我們非常高興地正式歡迎來自布雷默各地(包括明尼蘇達州、北達科他州和威斯康辛州)的新客戶和團隊成員。

  • I've traveled extensively throughout the Bremer footprint, meeting team members and clients. And I'm even more convinced that this partnership will be one of our best. The individuals in these markets are ones we know and appreciate.

    我走遍了布雷默的各個角落,並會見了團隊成員和客戶。我更加堅信,這次合作將成為我們最好的合作之一。這些市場中的個人都是我們熟悉和欣賞的。

  • Not only does this partnership significantly enhance our footprint providing greater scale and density in the Upper Midwest, but it also offers a valuable boost for our balance sheet and earnings growth in an uncertain environment, which should translate into more value creation for our shareholders than the industry can provide today.

    此次合作不僅顯著增強了我們的業務範圍,使我們在中西部上游地區擁有更大的規模和密度,而且還在不確定的環境下為我們的資產負債表和盈利增長提供了寶貴的推動力,這將為我們的股東創造比當今行業所能提供的更多的價值。

  • Thank you. I will now turn the call over to John to discuss the quarterly results in more detail.

    謝謝。現在我將把電話轉給約翰,更詳細地討論季度業績。

  • John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

    John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Jim. Turning to slide 4, we reported GAAP 1Q earnings per diluted common share of $0.44. Excluding $0.01 per share of merger-related charges, adjusted earnings per share were $0.45. Results were driven by growth in loans and deposits, net interest income and margin that were in line with our expectations, stable fee income, controlled expenses, and a favorable tax rate.

    謝謝,吉姆。轉到投影片 4,我們報告 GAAP 第一季每股攤薄普通股收益為 0.44 美元。不包括每股 0.01 美元的合併相關費用,調整後每股收益為 0.45 美元。業績成長得益於貸款和存款的成長、淨利息收入和利潤率符合我們的預期、穩定的費用收入、可控制的支出和優惠的稅率。

  • Credit was benign with normalized levels of charge-offs in our return profile as measured on assets and on tangible common equity remained high. On slide 5, you can see our quarterly balance sheet trends, which again highlights stability in our liquidity with continued improvement in our capital position.

    信貸狀況良好,以資產和有形普通股權益衡量的回報狀況中的沖銷水準正常化,仍然很高。在第 5 張投影片上,您可以看到我們的季度資產負債表趨勢,這再次凸顯了我們的流動性穩定性以及資本狀況的持續改善。

  • Total deposit growth over the last year has again allowed us to organically fund our loan growth, while minimizing our borrowings and brokered deposits. We grew our tangible book value per share by 5% as compared to last quarter and by 13% over the last year. We ended the quarter with a strong CET1 ratio of 11.62%, up 86 basis points from a year ago.

    去年的總存款成長再次使我們能夠有機地為我們的貸款成長提供資金,同時最大限度地減少我們的借款和經紀存款。與上一季相比,我們的每股有形帳面價值成長了 5%,與去年同期相比成長了 13%。本季末,我們的 CET1 比率達到 11.62%,比去年同期高出 86 個基點。

  • With capital levels higher than we had originally modeled at the time we announced Bremer last November and rates lower, we have significant flexibility around the size of our contemplated commercial real estate loan sale post close.

    由於資本水準高於我們去年 11 月宣布 Bremer 時最初預測的水平,而且利率較低,因此我們在預計的商業房地產貸款銷售規模方面擁有很大的靈活性。

  • On slide 6, we show trends in our earning assets. End-of-period total loans increased 1.5% annualized from last quarter or 2.3% excluding approximately $70 million of CRE loan sales in the quarter, in line with the lower end of our 1Q guidance. Production for the quarter was strong throughout our commercial book.

    在投影片 6 上,我們展示了獲利資產的趨勢。期末總貸款較上一季成長 1.5%(以年率計算),若不包括本季約 7,000 萬美元的 CRE 貸款銷售額,則成長 2.3%,與我們第一季指引的下限一致。在我們的整個商業帳簿中,本季的生產表現強勁。

  • Quarterly new loan production rates are in the high 6% range, and marginal funding costs are in the mid-3% range. The investment portfolio increased 2.6% from prior quarter due to the reinvestment of cash flows and favorable changes in fair values. Duration pulled in modestly linked quarter to just under 4%. We expect approximately $1.7 billion in cash flow over the next 12 months.

    季度新增貸款產生率處於 6% 的高位,邊際融資成本處於 3% 的中位數。由於現金流量再投資和公允價值的有利變化,投資組合較上一季成長了 2.6%。存續期本季小幅上漲至略低於 4%。我們預計未來 12 個月的現金流約為 17 億美元。

  • Today, new money yields are approximately 150 basis points above back-book yields on securities and fixed rate loans. The repricing dynamics in both loans and securities, combined with loan growth and the Bremer partnership, support our expectation that net interest income and net interest margin will grow in 2025.

    如今,新資金收益率比證券和固定利率貸款的帳面收益率高出約 150 個基點。貸款和證券的重新定價動態,加上貸款成長和與 Bremer 的合作關係,支持了我們的預期,即 2025 年淨利息收入和淨利差將成長。

  • Moving to slide 7, we show trends in deposits. Total deposits were up 2.1% annualized, and core deposits ex-brokered were up nearly 1.7% annualized as we remain focused on growth in this key funding source. Noninterest-bearing deposits were 23% of core deposits, relatively stable with fourth-quarter levels. Business noninterest-bearing and public funds saw normal seasonal outflows, while community deposits grew.

    轉到投影片 7,我們展示了存款趨勢。由於我們仍關注此關鍵資金來源的成長,總存款年化成長 2.1%,核心存款(不含經紀存款)年化成長近 1.7%。無利息存款佔核心存款的23%,與第四季的水準相對穩定。企業無息資金、公共資金出現正常的季節性流出,社區存款則增加。

  • Our brokered deposits were stable. And at 3.8% as a percentage of total deposits, our use of brokered continues to be less than half-peer levels. The loan-to-deposit ratio was 89%, consistent with last quarter. With respect to deposit costs, the 17-basis-point linked quarter decrease in our cost of total deposits played out as we expected. And total deposit costs held steady throughout the quarter, consistent with Fed actions.

    我們的經紀存款穩定。而我們的經紀業務佔總存款的 3.8%,仍然不到同業水準的一半。貸存比率為89%,與上季一致。就存款成本而言,我們的總存款成本按季度下降了 17 個基點,正如我們預期的那樣。整個季度的總存款成本保持穩定,與聯準會的行動一致。

  • Our spot rate on total deposits at March 31 was 190 basis points. Moreover, our exception price deposits have experienced a 103% down beta since we started lowering rates on that book in early 2Q of 2024. Our cumulative total deposit beta came in at 37%, which was favorable to our expectations.

    截至 3 月 31 日,我們的總存款即期利率為 190 個基點。此外,自 2024 年第二季初我們開始降低例外價格存款利率以來,我們的例外價格存款利率已下降 103%。我們的累積總存款貝塔係數達到 37%,符合我們的預期。

  • Overall, we remain confident in the execution of our deposit strategy. We are prepared to proactively respond to future Fed rate actions while staying on offense with new and existing clients to drive above-peer deposit growth at reasonable costs. Slide 8 shows our quarterly income statement trends. As I mentioned earlier, adjusted earnings per share were $0.45 for the quarter, with all key line items in line with our prior guidance.

    整體而言,我們對存款策略的執行仍然充滿信心。我們準備積極應對未來的聯準會利率行動,同時繼續對新舊客戶保持攻勢,以合理的成本推動高於同業的存款成長。投影片 8 顯示了我們的季度損益表趨勢。正如我之前提到的,本季調整後的每股收益為 0.45 美元,所有關鍵項目均符合我們先前的預期。

  • Moving on to slide 9, we present details of our net interest income and margin. Net interest income decreased as we had expected and guided, with net interest margin likewise down modestly due to lower accretion and fewer days in the quarter. Away from accretion and days, net interest margin would have been up 6 basis points with lower deposit costs more than offsetting rate and volume dynamics on the asset side.

    轉到幻燈片 9,我們展示了淨利息收入和利潤率的詳細資訊。淨利息收入如我們預期和指導的那樣下降,淨利差同樣因本季利息成長減少和天數減少而小幅下降。除去累積和天數,淨利差將上升 6 個基點,而存款成本的降低將超過資產方面的抵銷利率和交易量動態。

  • Slide 10 shows trends in adjusted noninterest income, which was $94 million for the quarter and above our guidance. Our primary fee businesses performed well with bank fees showing normal seasonality and wealth, mortgage, and capital markets all stable despite choppy market conditions late in the quarter.

    投影片 10 顯示了調整後非利息收入的趨勢,本季調整後非利息收入為 9,400 萬美元,高於我們的預期。我們的主要費用業務表現良好,銀行費用表現出正常的季節性,儘管本季末市場狀況波動,但財富、抵押貸款和資本市場均保持穩定。

  • Other income benefited $4.8 million from a gain on the previously mentioned sale of approximately $70 million of commercial real estate loans. As a reminder, looking back to fourth quarter, other income was elevated by approximately $8 million of discrete items.

    其他收入從前面提到的出售約 7000 萬美元商業房地產貸款中獲得 480 萬美元的收益。提醒一下,回顧第四季度,其他收入因單獨項目增加了約 800 萬美元。

  • Continuing to slide 11, we show the trend in adjusted noninterest expenses of $263 million for the quarter, which was moderately better than our guidance due to lower other expenses, predominantly professional fees, FDIC assessment, and tax credit amortization. Run rate expenses remain well controlled, and we again generated positive linked quarter operating leverage.

    繼續到第 11 張投影片,我們展示了本季調整後非利息支出的趨勢,為 2.63 億美元,由於其他支出(主要是專業費用、FDIC 評估和稅收抵免攤銷)較低,該數字略好於我們的預期。運行率費用仍然得到很好的控制,我們再次產生了正的季度關聯營運槓桿。

  • On slide 12, we present our credit trends. Total net charge-offs were 24 basis points or 21 basis points, excluding 3 basis points related to PCD loans. The delinquency ratio improved from the fourth quarter, while the NPL ratio increased modestly. The fourth-quarter allowance for credit losses to total loans, including the reserve for unfunded commitments, was 116 basis points, up 2 basis points from the prior quarter.

    在第 12 張投影片上,我們展示了我們的信貸趨勢。總淨沖銷額為 24 個基點或 21 個基點,不包括與 PCD 貸款相關的 3 個基點。拖欠率較第四季有所改善,不良貸款率則略有上升。第四季信貸損失準備金佔貸款總額(包括未撥付承諾準備金)的比率為 116 個基點,較上一季增加 2 個基點。

  • Consistent with the fourth quarter, our qualitative reserves incorporate a 100% weighting on the Moody's S2 scenario, with additional qualitative factors to capture global trade and economic uncertainty. Also, we remind you that our allowance for credit losses plus the discount remaining on acquired loans to total loans now stands at nearly 150 basis points.

    與第四季度一致,我們的定性儲備包含了穆迪 S2 情境的 100% 權重,並加入了額外的定性因素來捕捉全球貿易和經濟的不確定性。此外,我們提醒您,我們的信貸損失準備金加上所收購貸款的剩餘折扣佔總貸款的比率目前已接近 150 個基點。

  • Slide 13 presents key credit metrics relative to peers. Our proactive approach to credit monitoring has led to above-peer levels of NPLs for delinquency and charge-off ratios that are below-peer averages over time. A steadfast approach to client selection, conservative structuring, and our proactive stance on workouts have long been hallmarks of ONB's credit discipline. This, in part, explains our lower NPL to NCO conversion rates. It is also worth noting that roughly 40% of our NPLs are from acquired books with appropriate reserves and marks.

    投影片 13 展示了相對於同業的關鍵信用指標。我們採取了積極主動的信用監控方法,導致不良貸款拖欠率高於同行水平,而核銷率則低於同行平均水平。堅定的客戶選擇方法、保守的結構以及我們在債務重組方面的積極主動立場一直是 ONB 信貸紀律的標誌。這在一定程度上解釋了我們的不良貸款 (NPL) 到不良資產 (NCO) 的轉換率較低。另外值得注意的是,我們約 40% 的不良貸款來自具有適當儲備和標記的收購帳簿。

  • On slide 14, we review our capital position at the end of the quarter. All regulatory ratios increased driven by strong retained earnings. Tangible book value per share was up 5% linked quarter and 13% year over year. And we expect AOCI to improve approximately 10% or $65 million by year-end.

    在第 14 張投影片上,我們回顧了本季末的資本狀況。在強勁的留存收益推動下,所有監管比率均有所增加。每股有形帳面價值較上季成長 5%,較去年同期成長 13%。我們預計到年底 AOCI 將成長約 10% 或 6,500 萬美元。

  • Slide 15 includes updated details on our rate risk position and net interest income guidance. This guidance continues to include the original M&A marks and $2.4 billion of loan sales. But NII was updated to reflect the close of Bremer on May 1 versus our assumption of July 1 in our prior guidance.

    投影片 15 包含有關我們的利率風險狀況和淨利息收入指引的最新詳細資訊。該指引繼續包括原始併購標記和 24 億美元的貸款銷售。但 NII 已更新,以反映 Bremer 於 5 月 1 日關閉的情況,而我們先前的指導中假設關閉時間為 7 月 1 日。

  • Away from this update, our guidance is relatively unchanged with NII expected to increase with the addition of Bremer and with the benefit of fixed asset repricing and growth. Our assumptions are listed on the slide, but I would highlight a few of the primary drivers.

    除此更新外,我們的指導方針相對保持不變,預計 NII 將隨著 Bremer 的加入以及固定資產重新定價和增長的好處而增加。我們的假設列在投影片上,但我想強調一些主要驅動因素。

  • First, we assumed three rate cuts of 25 basis points each, which generally aligns with the current forward curve. Second, we assume a five-year treasury rate that stabilizes at 4%. Third, we anticipate our total down-rate deposit beta to increase from 37% in the first quarter to approximately 40% by 2Q, which is in line with our terminal uprate betas.

    首先,我們假設降息三次,每次25個基點,這與目前的遠期曲線基本一致。其次,我們假設五年期公債利率穩定在4%。第三,我們預計總下行存款貝塔係數將從第一季的 37% 上升至第二季的 40% 左右,這與我們的終端上行貝塔係數一致。

  • And fourth, we expect the noninterest-bearing mix to remain relatively stable as a percentage of core deposits. Importantly, our guidance would be unchanged for one Fed cut or no cuts as our balance sheet remains neutrally positioned to short-term rates.

    第四,我們預期無利息存款佔核心存款的比例將維持相對穩定。重要的是,由於我們的資產負債表對短期利率保持中性定位,因此對於聯準會一次降息或不降息,我們的指引將保持不變。

  • Slide 16 includes our outlook for the second-quarter and full-year 2025. With the exception of loan growth, all guidance includes Bremer closing on May 1, two months earlier than the July 1 assumption in our original 2025 guidance. Again, this guidance continues to include the original M&A marks and $2.4 billion of loan sales. Excluding this update, our guidance is essentially unchanged.

    幻燈片 16 包括我們對 2025 年第二季和全年的展望。除貸款增長外,所有指導意見均認為布雷默將於 5 月 1 日關閉,比我們最初的 2025 年指導意見中 7 月 1 日的假設提前了兩個月。再次,該指引繼續包括原始併購標記和 24 億美元的貸款銷售。除此更新外,我們的指導基本上保持不變。

  • We believe our current pipeline support full-year loan growth, excluding the impact of Bremer of 4% to 6%, which is expected to ramp up over the course of the year. We anticipate continued success in the execution of our deposit strategy and expect to meet or exceed the industry growth in 2025.

    我們相信,我們目前的貸款管道能夠支持全年貸款成長(不包括布雷默 4% 至 6% 的影響),預計這一增長將在今年內增加。我們預計我們的存款策略執行將繼續取得成功,並預計在 2025 年達到或超過行業成長。

  • Other key line items are highlighted on the slide. At the midpoint of the range on these lines, you'll note that we expect full-year results that yield earnings per share in line with current analyst consensus estimates and again, feature positive operating leverage and a peer-leading return profile with good growth in fees, controlled expenses, and normalized credit.

    幻燈片上突出顯示了其他關鍵項目。在這些線的範圍中點,您會注意到,我們預計全年業績的每股收益將與當前分析師的一致預期一致,並且再次具有積極的經營槓桿和同行領先的回報狀況,費用增長良好,費用得到控制,信貸正常化。

  • As we noted at the bottom of the slide, uncertainty surrounding global trade and the macroeconomic outlook, if prolonged, could widen the range of possible outcomes this year with respect to both growth and rates. That said, the pending Bremer close creates interesting alternatives. A few thoughts there.

    正如我們在幻燈片底部所指出的,全球貿易和宏觀經濟前景的不確定性如果持續下去,可能會擴大今年經濟成長和利率的可能結果範圍。儘管如此,即將關閉的布雷默公司也帶來了一些有趣的選擇。這裡有幾點想法。

  • As compared to the M&A model assumptions that we presented last November, ONB's capital starting points are almost 30 basis points higher than we had expected. Bremer's underlying performance has also tracked slightly better. ONB stock is lower, and rates are approximately 40 basis points lower across the board, suggesting lower marks all else equal.

    與我們去年 11 月提出的併購模型假設相比,ONB 的資本起點比我們預期的高出近 30 個基點。布雷默的基本表現也略有改善。ONB 股票價格下跌,利率全線下跌約 40 個基點,顯示在其他條件相同的情況下利率下跌。

  • On balance, this is expected to result in higher legal day-one capital levels, creating significant balance sheet optionality. More specifically, while our guidance continues to incorporate up to $2.4 billion of loan sales, we believe more day-one capital can support a larger pro forma balance sheet, a tremendous lever to have in a year that looks likely to be more uncertain than we would have guessed when we last spoke in January. We will provide an update to this guidance with 2Q earnings once we finalize accounting marks.

    總的來說,這預計會導致法定首日資本水準提高,從而產生顯著的資產負債表可選性。更具體地說,雖然我們的指導方針繼續包含高達 24 億美元的貸款銷售額,但我們相信,更多的首日資本可以支持更大的備考資產負債表,這是一個巨大的槓桿,因為今年的不確定性可能比我們 1 月份上次談話時猜測的還要大。一旦我們確定會計標記,我們將根據第二季收益提供此指南的更新。

  • In summary, echoing Jim's opening comments, we had a strong start to 2025. We remained on offense with growth in both loans and deposits. We showcased stability in fee income and disciplined expense management. We continued to execute against our deposit pricing strategy. We maintained strong credit quality.

    總而言之,與吉姆的開場白相呼應,我們在 2025 年有一個好的開始。我們的貸款和存款繼續保持成長勢頭。我們展示了穩定的費用收入和嚴格的費用管理。我們繼續執行我們的存款定價策略。我們保持了良好的信用品質。

  • And finally, we anticipate closing our Bremer partnership two months earlier than expected on May 1 and look forward to welcoming our newest team members and clients. Bremer will not only provide greater scale and density in the Upper Midwest, but also provides meaningful balance sheet flexibility and earnings growth in an uncertain environment.

    最後,我們預計將於 5 月 1 日提前兩個月結束與 Bremer 的合作關係,並期待迎接我們新的團隊成員和客戶。布雷默不僅將在中西部上游地區提供更大的規模和密度,而且還將在不確定的環境中提供有意義的資產負債表靈活性和獲利成長。

  • With those comments, I'd like to open the call for questions.

    聽完這些評論後,我想開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Jared Shaw, Barclays.

    (操作員指示)巴克萊銀行的賈里德·肖 (Jared Shaw)。

  • John Rowan - Analyst

    John Rowan - Analyst

  • This is [John Rowan] for Jared. Good morning.

    我是 [John Rowan],代表 Jared。早安.

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • John Rowan - Analyst

    John Rowan - Analyst

  • Just maybe starting with Bremer, the better capital at day one is going to be here. Does that -- what impact did that have on maybe the NII outlook? Is there less accretion assumed and then there's just like a ballpark difference in the accretion assumed versus last quarter?

    也許從布雷默開始,第一天更好的資本就會在這裡。這對 NII 前景有何影響?假設的吸積是否較少,然後與上一季相比,假設的吸積是否存在大致上的差異?

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, John. So for 2025, what we've got in there is still the original M&A assumption. So it's the same model that we would have presented back in November of last year. And that would include still $2.4 billion of commercial real estate loans.

    是的,約翰。因此,對於 2025 年,我們仍然遵循最初的併購假設。因此,它與我們去年 11 月推出的模型相同。其中仍包括 24 億美元的商業房地產貸款。

  • And I think what we're trying to message here today is, look, day one -- legal day-one closed capital is in all likelihood, if we rerack this today, going to result in much higher capital levels. And so that $2.4 billion is very likely to be less than $2.4 billion, which would be an offset to the foregone purchase accounting accretion that would be coming off of the rate market.

    我認為我們今天想要傳達的訊息是,看,第一天——如果我們今天重新審視這一點,合法的第一天封閉資本很有可能導致更高的資本水平。因此,24 億美元很可能少於 24 億美元,這將抵消利率市場放棄的購買會計增值。

  • John Rowan - Analyst

    John Rowan - Analyst

  • Okay, perfect. That's helpful. And then just on some of the guidance, the 40% deposit beta, does that include Bremer?

    好的,完美。這很有幫助。然後僅根據一些指導,40%的存款測試版,是否包括布雷​​默?

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • It does not. That's core ONB. And look, I would just note on that, that's where we expect to be at 2Q. We've still got fairly large exception price book that we're grinding down over time.

    但事實並非如此。這就是核心 ONB。瞧,我只是想指出這一點,這就是我們預計的第二季的情況。我們仍然擁有相當大的例外價格手冊,並且我們會隨著時間的推移而不斷精簡。

  • I think our expectation was that we were going to match our uprate beta on the downside. We'll be there by the end of 2Q, but I think there's room to go yet. And so we'll continue to work that book.

    我認為我們的預期是,我們將在下行方面匹配我們的上調貝塔值。我們將在第二季末實現這一目標,但我認為仍有前進的空間。因此我們將繼續編寫這本書。

  • John Rowan - Analyst

    John Rowan - Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. And then just last one for me. The other fee income has had a kind of a lumpy couple of quarters. What's a good run rate for that, ex-Bremer, just in a normal environment?

    好的。完美的。對我來說,這是最後一個。其他費用收入在過去幾季表現不穩定。前布雷默員工,在正常環境下,這個良好的運作率是多少?

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, it's been bouncing around a little bit. And obviously, we had the loan sale in there this quarter. Last quarter, we had $8 million of discrete items.

    是的,它有點反彈。顯然,本季我們進行了貸款銷售。上個季度,我們有價值 800 萬美元的離散項目。

  • I'd say if you look at 4Q and kind of back out $8 million, look at this quarter, back out about $5 million, that's a pretty good run rate for that. In aggregate, though, if you look at the guide, I mean, the guide is basically unchanged, but for two extra months of Bremer in there on the 2025 guidance that we've got.

    我想說,如果你看一下第四季度,回落了 800 萬美元,看看這個季度,回落了約 500 萬美元,這是一個相當不錯的運行率。不過,總的來說,如果你看一下指南,我的意思是,指南基本上沒有變化,但是在我們得到的 2025 年指南中,布雷默增加了兩個月的時間。

  • John Rowan - Analyst

    John Rowan - Analyst

  • Okay, perfect. Thank you. That's all from me.

    好的,完美。謝謝。我要說的就這些。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Gerlinger, Citi.

    花旗銀行的本‧格林格 (Ben Gerlinger)。

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, Ben.

    早安,本。

  • Ben Gerlinger - Analyst

    Ben Gerlinger - Analyst

  • I know you guys have, like you said, the unique position of potentially selling or not selling. Capital looks better, assuming rates don't go crazy here over the next week.

    我知道,就像你們說的,你們擁有可能出售或不出售的獨特地位。假設下周利率不會瘋狂上漲,那麼資本看起來會更好。

  • So when you think about like -- what would be the driving factors for that decision? I mean, it's probably somewhere in the middle. Maybe you sell some; maybe you sell don't or not all of it, I guess, you could say. But is there something specifically you're looking for other than just better capital levels because I would assume you don't do anything changing?

    那麼當您考慮—做出這項決定的驅動因素是什麼?我的意思是,它可能處於中間位置。也許你賣一些;我想,你可以這麼說,也許你賣不掉,或者根本不會賣掉所有的東西。但是,除了更好的資本水平之外,您還在尋找什麼特別的東西嗎?因為我認為您不會做任何改變?

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Ben, I think it's three things really that we're focused on. One is double-digit CET1 is important to us. And I think we're going to land there, again, to your point, borrowing rates going absolutely crazy here in the next less than two weeks. I think double-digit CET1 is really important us.

    是的,本,我認為我們真正關注的是三件事。兩位數的CET1對我們很重要。我認為我們將再次達到你的觀點,即在接下來的不到兩週內,借貸利率將變得非常瘋狂。我認為兩位數的 CET1 對我們來說非常重要。

  • Total is a second -- total risk base is a second consideration. And the CRE as a percentage of total risk-based would be the third one. I think based on what we know today, we're going to land in a really good place on all three of those. And so that gives significant flexibility.

    總數是第二個-總風險基礎是第二個考慮因素。而 CRE 佔總風險的百分比將是第三個。我認為,根據我們今天所了解的情況,我們將在這三個方面取得非常好的進展。因此這提供了很大的靈活性。

  • John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

    John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

  • Ben, I would just say this is a nice offset to -- if we think growth is more challenging today than we thought it was when we began the year, this is a nice offset to that, which is a tailwind that most don't have today. And we're really lucky that we have that for us.

    本,我只想說,這是一個很好的抵消因素——如果我們認為今天的增長比我們年初認為的更具挑戰性,那麼這是一個很好的抵消因素,這是今天大多數人所沒有的順風。我們真的很幸運能擁有這一切。

  • Ben Gerlinger - Analyst

    Ben Gerlinger - Analyst

  • Got it. No, I really appreciate that point because it's essentially maybe not quite a year, but a pretty healthy couple of quarters worth of potential growth that you have in your back pocket. So I was kind of thinking like -- when you look at the original guidance, you kind of assumed the $2 billion-plus sale. So if you don't sell any, would that imply there's some upside on your full-year '25 NII outlook?

    知道了。不,我真的很欣賞這一點,因為本質上這可能不是一年,而是你口袋裡擁有的相當健康的潛在增長的幾個季度。所以我有點想——當你看最初的指導時,你有點假設銷售額超過 20 億美元。那麼,如果您不出售任何股票,是否意味著您對 25 年全年 NII 的預期會有所上行?

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, it would, Ben. Yeah.

    是的,本。是的。

  • Ben Gerlinger - Analyst

    Ben Gerlinger - Analyst

  • Okay. Because it really does incorporate the full-sale day one, which is now May 1 rather than July 1. Just making sure I have that correct.

    好的。因為它確實包含了全面銷售的第一天,也就是 5 月 1 日,而不是 7 月 1 日。只是想確保我理解的正確。

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • That's correct.

    沒錯。

  • Ben Gerlinger - Analyst

    Ben Gerlinger - Analyst

  • Got you. Okay. Appreciate the time. Thanks, guys.

    明白了。好的。珍惜時間。謝謝大家。

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Ben.

    謝謝,本。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

    史考特·西佛斯、派珀·桑德勒。

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, Scott.

    早安,史考特。

  • Scott Siefers - Analyst

    Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Morning, guys. Hey, thanks for taking the question. Jim, maybe can you sort of walk us through broadly where your customers' heads are at or just sort of what they're telling you and sort of where they are relative to, say, January when we last spoke?

    早安,大家。嘿,謝謝你回答這個問題。吉姆,您能否大致向我們介紹一下您的客戶的想法,或者他們告訴您的內容,以及相對於我們上次談話時一月份的情況?

  • And then I guess, just as importantly, what has to happen to get them back on track with how they might have been thinking about things before all this tariff turmoil started? Are they -- could we see a snapback in activity? Or are they sort of girding in for a lower growth, higher inflation environment? Where are people thinking?

    然後我想,同樣重要的是,要怎麼做才能讓他們回到正軌上,回到關稅風暴開始之前他們對事物的想法?他們——我們能看到活動反彈嗎?還是他們準備迎接較低成長、較高通膨的環境?人們在想什麼?

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I'm going to push it over to Mark since he's in the room with us.

    我要把它交給馬克,因為他和我們在同一個房間。

  • Mark Sander - President, Chief Operating Officer of the Company

    Mark Sander - President, Chief Operating Officer of the Company

  • Hey, Scott.

    嘿,斯科特。

  • Scott Siefers - Analyst

    Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Hey, Mark.

    嘿,馬克。

  • Mark Sander - President, Chief Operating Officer of the Company

    Mark Sander - President, Chief Operating Officer of the Company

  • Yeah. Good to hear from you. Businesses overall are doing well and as you say, get back on track. I would say it's been more of a pause, but they haven't really changed their plans. Certainly, the uncertainty over the last couple of months has brought a little bit more of a wait and see and a little bit of a pause. But it hasn't had anybody changed their plans.

    是的。很高興收到你的來信。總體而言,企業經營狀況良好,正如您所說,已經重回正軌。我想說這更像是一種暫停,但他們並沒有真正改變他們的計劃。當然,過去幾個月的不確定性帶來了更多的觀望和暫停。但沒有人改變他們的計劃。

  • Our pipelines are still really strong, which is why -- and as we look at our production in Q1 and what our pipelines look like now, we haven't changed our guidance yet even as people are taking a little bit more of a -- how is this going to turn out approach.

    我們的管道仍然非常強勁,這就是為什麼——當我們回顧第一季的產量以及我們現在的管道狀況時,我們還沒有改變我們的指導方針,即使人們更多地考慮——這將如何發展。

  • And in CRE, I just would also emphasize, CRE is pretty active these days. Even the rate gyrations over the last few weeks hasn't tempered what's becoming an increasingly competitive market. So there's still a decent level of activity out there.

    在 CRE 方面,我還要強調的是,CRE 目前非常活躍。即使過去幾週利率出現波動,也未能緩和日益激烈的市場競爭。因此,那裡的活動水平仍然相當高。

  • Scott Siefers - Analyst

    Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. Thank you for that, Mark. And then maybe, John, can you sort of help us with sort of the underlying NII cadence through the year? I know you suggested in your prepared remarks, both margin and NII should increase.

    好的。完美的。謝謝你,馬克。那麼,約翰,您能否幫助我們了解一下全年 NII 的基本節奏?我知道您在準備好的發言中建議,保證金和NII都應該增加。

  • I presume that means sort of organic ex-Bremer. But just maybe sort of the puts and takes since it's going to be kind of a noisy couple of quarters with Bremer layered in starting 90 days from now.

    我認為這意味著某種有機的前布雷默。但也許這只是某種付出和收穫,因為從現在起 90 天後布雷默將開始層層上任,這將會是幾個比較吵雜的季度。

  • John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

    John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So I think 15 of the deck gives you our best guess of exactly how that's going to play out. I think on a core basis, we'd expect to see some better core margin 2Q and NII dollar growth, and that would continue in 3Q, 4Q. And then obviously, Bremer coming in, in May early gives us a nice lift.

    是的。所以我認為,透過 15 副牌,你可以最好地猜測事情將如何發展。我認為從核心角度來看,我們預計第二季核心利潤率和 NII 美元成長會有所改善,並且這種趨勢將在第三季和第四季持續下去。顯然,布雷默在五月初的到來為我們帶來了極大的鼓舞。

  • Scott Siefers - Analyst

    Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Yup. Got you. Okay. Perfect. Thank you guys very much.

    是的。明白了。好的。完美的。非常感謝你們。

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Scott.

    謝謝,斯科特。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris McGratty, KBW.

    克里斯·麥格拉蒂,KBW。

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, Chris.

    早上好,克里斯。

  • Chris McGratty - Analyst

    Chris McGratty - Analyst

  • Hey, Jim. Hey, John. Hey, Mark. A question on the loan growth. I think in your prepared remarks, you talked about a little bit of a ramp over the course of the year. I guess, how do we reconcile that with all the macro? Our pipeline -- are you confident in the pipeline pull-through? Maybe talk me through kind of the guidance on the loan growth.

    嘿,吉姆。嘿,約翰。嘿,馬克。關於貸款成長的問題。我認為您在準備好的發言中談到了今年的成長勢頭。我想,我們如何將其與所有宏觀因素相協調?我們的管道-您對管線貫通有信心嗎?也許可以向我介紹一下有關貸款成長的指導。

  • Mark Sander - President, Chief Operating Officer of the Company

    Mark Sander - President, Chief Operating Officer of the Company

  • I'd say it this way -- Chris, it's Mark. The pipeline is up 30% from a year ago. Our accepted category is up 50% from a year ago. So again, that would seem to indicate we're going to nice strong loan growth. So we've tempered that a little bit with the caution I spoke of a few minutes ago. And that's what gets us back to that mid-single digit that we still believe.

    我想這樣說──克里斯,我是馬克。該管道比一年前增加了 30%。我們的接受類別比一年前增加了 50%。所以,這似乎再次表明我們將實現強勁的貸款成長。因此,我們根據我幾分鐘前提到的謹慎態度稍微緩和了一點。這就是讓我們回到我們仍然相信的中等個位數的原因。

  • The pull-through rates in C&I, I think, are holding up. The pull-through rates in CRE candidly are down a little bit. It's just a more competitive marketplace. But again, with the pipeline up 30%, I think that bodes well for continued growth.

    我認為,工商業的拉通率正在保持穩定。坦白說,CRE 的拉通率略有下降。這只是一個競爭更激烈的市場。但是,隨著管道增加 30%,我認為這預示著持續成長。

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Chris, as I look at the total year, I think Mark is absolutely right. I mean, there is more uncertainty around what that forecast could look like than we started the year with. But again, I'd just point back to we have a lot of flexibility that's coming online post closing here. And I think that allows us to take into account through those loan sales or lack of loan sales, any kind of offset to any organic growth we might have here, which is something unique we can offer today.

    克里斯,當我回顧全年情況時,我認為馬克是完全正確的。我的意思是,與年初相比,我們對這項預測的不確定性更大。但是,我再次指出,我們在交易結束後將擁有很大的靈活性。我認為這使我們能夠透過這些貸款銷售或缺乏貸款銷售來考慮我們可能在這裡實現的任何有機成長的抵消,這是我們今天可以提供的獨特服務。

  • Chris McGratty - Analyst

    Chris McGratty - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks for that. And, Jim, just more broadly on capital, any thoughts on restarting the buyback post close, given where the stock is at?

    好的,謝謝。吉姆,從更廣泛的資本角度考慮,考慮到股票的現狀,您有考慮在收盤後重新開始回購嗎?

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • We certainly thought about it. I think it's just too early to tell. We're really going to see how -- what the marks come through, how much balance sheet flexibility we want to use of that extra capital we didn't think we would have.

    我們當然考慮過這個問題。我認為現在下結論還為時過早。我們真的要看看——這些標記會帶來什麼結果,我們希望利用我們認為自己不會擁有的額外資本來實現多少資產負債表彈性。

  • And all things being equal, I guess, Chris, I'd rather have a bigger balance sheet and stronger capital levels than I would to buy back today. I mean, I give it -- given it's all attractively priced, but I do think the best bet for our shareholders is to have a slightly bigger balance sheet than we anticipated.

    克里斯,我想,如果其他條件都一樣的話,我寧願擁有更大的資產負債表和更強的資本水平,而不是今天回購。我的意思是,我認為——考慮到它的價格很有吸引力,但我確實認為對我們的股東來說最好的選擇是擁有比我們預期稍大的資產負債表。

  • And then we are going to generate capital very rapidly. So I think that becomes a question for the back half of the year and into '26, is how do we optimize capital. But I think just day one here, be really focused on getting the right size of the balance sheet with the right capital stack and then look at alternative uses of capital, including the buyback.

    然後我們就會非常迅速地產生資本。所以我認為這將成為今年下半年和26年的問題,那就是我們如何優化資本。但我認為,從第一天起,真正要集中精力獲得適當規模的資產負債表和適當的資本結構,然後再考慮資本的替代用途,包括回購。

  • Mark Sander - President, Chief Operating Officer of the Company

    Mark Sander - President, Chief Operating Officer of the Company

  • Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

    好的。完美的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Long, Raymond James.

    大衛朗、雷蒙詹姆斯。

  • David Long - Analyst

    David Long - Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone.

    大家早安。

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, David.

    早安,大衛。

  • David Long - Analyst

    David Long - Analyst

  • Hey, in this more uncertain backdrop versus what we're looking at in January, you guys kept your loss provision guide. And I just want to see how maintaining that guide squares with the worsening economic forecast and potential incremental risks that you may see.

    嘿,與我們一月份看到的情況相比,在這個更加不確定的背景下,你們保留了損失準備金指南。我只是想看看維持該指南如何與日益惡化的經濟預測和您可能看到的潛在的增量風險相一致。

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. We still feel really good about our -- ultimately, we feel really good about what the loss content looks like, right? So the provision will kind of cover that plus growth.

    是的。我們仍然對我們的感覺非常好——最終,我們對損失內容的樣子感覺非常好,對嗎?因此,該條款將涵蓋這一部分以及成長部分。

  • And again, David, as you know, we're 100% weighted against an S2 scenario today. We've thrown a little bit extra just for the global sort of trade and macroeconomic uncertainty in this quarter's results and feel really good about where we're provisioned. So --

    再說一次,大衛,如你所知,我們今天 100% 反對 S2 情景。我們在本季的業績中為應對全球貿易和宏觀經濟的不確定性投入了一點額外資金,並且對我們的準備感到非常滿意。所以--

  • John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

    John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

  • And all of our credit metrics came in right where we thought they would.

    我們的所有信用指標都達到了我們預期的水平。

  • David Long - Analyst

    David Long - Analyst

  • Got it, got it. Great. Thanks for that color. And then second question I had relates to your prior acquisition down in Nashville. And just want to get an update on expansion plans there and investments there. And has the backdrop changed your appetite to grow that at the pace you were contemplating earlier in the year?

    明白了,明白了。偉大的。謝謝你這個顏色。我的第二個問題與您之前在納許維爾的收購有關。只是想了解那裡的擴張計劃和投資的最新情況。那麼,當前的背景是否改變了您按照今年早些時候考慮的速度發展這項業務的意願?

  • Mark Sander - President, Chief Operating Officer of the Company

    Mark Sander - President, Chief Operating Officer of the Company

  • Yeah. I don't think the economic environment has changed our desires at all. That would be an area we want to continue to grow and invest in. We've got some great teams on the ground. Admittedly, we're probably subscale where we ultimately want to be in that marketplace.

    是的。我認為經濟環境根本沒有改變我們的願望。這是我們想要繼續發展和投資的領域。我們擁有一些優秀的實地團隊。無可否認,我們可能還沒有達到我們最終想要進入的市場的規模。

  • So I think this is a long-term investment play both of talent and probably some infrastructure over time. We feel like that's still -- we still feel really good about that initial investment and the investments we've made so far. And importantly, I think that will be an area that will get an outsized portion of investment going forward.

    所以我認為這是一項長期投資,既包括人才投資,也可能包括一些基礎設施投資。我們覺得這仍然——我們仍然對最初的投資以及迄今為止所做的投資感到非常滿意。重要的是,我認為這將成為未來獲得大量投資的領域。

  • David Long - Analyst

    David Long - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks, Mark. Appreciate it.

    偉大的。謝謝,馬克。非常感謝。

  • Mark Sander - President, Chief Operating Officer of the Company

    Mark Sander - President, Chief Operating Officer of the Company

  • Thanks, sir.

    謝謝,先生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jon Arfstrom, RBC Capital Markets.

    加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Jon Arfstrom。

  • Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

    Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning.

    謝謝。早安.

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, Jon. Good to hear from you.

    早安,喬恩。很高興收到你的來信。

  • Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

    Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

  • Yeah. Thank you. John Moran, for you. Just maybe a follow-up on David's question on reserves. You planned a qualitative reserve at 25% of your total [ACO]. How does that compare to history?

    是的。謝謝。約翰·莫蘭,為你。也許這只是對大衛關於儲備問題的後續回答。你打算將總儲備量的 25% 作為定性儲備[ACO]。與歷史相比如何?

  • John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

    John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

  • It's up a little bit as compared to where it was. I think we were running low 20s a couple of quarters back in '24 in the first quarter. So it's up just a touch.

    與之前相比,有所上升。我認為我們在 2024 年第一季的幾個季度中都跑出了 20 多分。所以它只是稍微向上一點。

  • Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

    Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

  • Okay. Okay, got it. And then on slide 7 and 15, you guys -- it looks like you had a nice step down in deposit costs. How much more room do you think you have?

    好的。好的,明白了。然後在第 7 張和第 15 張投影片上,看起來你們的存款成本已經大幅下降。您認為還有多少空間?

  • You flagged the $7 billion in time and brokered. And just curious how much more room you think you have on bringing deposit costs down.

    您及時標記了 70 億美元並進行了斡旋。我只是好奇您認為在降低存款成本方面還有多少空間。

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think we've got some room to run here. Obviously, there's an opportunity in the time and brokered, particularly in the brokered time bucket. And we have intentionally kept that very short, as you know. So we get a couple of bites at that on the way down if things change.

    我認為我們在這裡還有一些發展空間。顯然,在時間和經紀方面存在著機會,特別是在經紀時間段內。正如你們所知,我們有意將其寫得很簡短。因此,如果情況發生變化,我們會在途中得到一些資訊。

  • And then the exception book still sit in [334] and a good chunk of the deposits in the bank today. Mike and his team continue to grind that book lower. And that's kind of -- you know how we do it around here. I mean, this is hand-to-hand kind of combat and a very, very granular process, very, very detailed. But I think we've got opportunity in that book, still.

    然後,例外簿仍然存在於[334]中,今天銀行裡還有很大一部分存款。麥克和他的團隊繼續對那本書進行深入研究。這就是——你知道我們在這裡是如何做到的。我的意思是,這是一種徒手搏鬥,是一個非常非常精細的過程,非常非常詳細。但我認為我們在這本書中仍然有機會。

  • Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

    Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

  • Yeah, okay. Just maybe one more if I can. Jim, first couple of things you want to tackle on May 1 or 2 when Bremer closes?

    嗯,好的。如果可以的話,也許再多一個。吉姆,5 月 1 日或 2 日 Bremer 關閉時,您首先要解決的幾件事是什麼?

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I mean, we're heading your way this afternoon to spend some time with our team members up there, and we're really just pleased. And we've had the chance to travel the footprint including being in Fargo in February. So we were really pleasantly pleased with all the team members and clients we've met.

    是的。我的意思是,我們今天下午要去你們那裡與我們的團隊成員一起度過一段時間,我們真的很高興。我們有機會遊歷這些地方,包括二月去法哥。因此,我們對遇到的所有團隊成員和客戶都感到非常高興。

  • So I think it's just -- it's more of the cultural integration, John. I think that's what we do exceptionally well. And we're just going to spend an awful lot of time up there, making sure that the team is welcome. The clients know that we want to continue to serve them the way they've been served in the past and really leverage the strength now of a much greater scale and density in that footprint than we previously had.

    所以我認為這只是——這更多的是一種文化融合,約翰。我認為這就是我們做得非常出色的地方。我們將在那裡花費大量時間,確保團隊受到歡迎。客戶知道,我們希望繼續以過去的方式為他們服務,並真正利用比以前更大的規模和密度的優勢。

  • So I guess, it's a little bit more of the same, but obviously, this is a big partnership for us. And so we're going to give it the investment that's going to be required to ensure it's successful.

    所以我想,這和之前的有些類似,但顯然,這對我們來說是一個重要的合作關係。因此,我們將提供必要的投資以確保其成功。

  • John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

    John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

  • And just to elaborate on that, we've been tackling that, well, prior to May 1, right? So that's been -- since we announced it, we've been up there present and combining (multiple speakers) --

    為了詳細說明這一點,我們在 5 月 1 日之前就一直在解決這個問題,對嗎?自從我們宣布以來,我們就一直在那裡,並且(多位發言者)——

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think a few weeks ago, we had 30 different locations across North Dakota and Minnesota. And so we'll be doing more of the same here this spring and into the summer.

    我想幾週前,我們在北達科他州和明尼蘇達州有 30 個不同的地點。因此,今年春季和夏季我們將在這裡做更多相同的工作。

  • Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

    Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you very much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Terry McEvoy, Stephens.

    (操作員指示)特里·麥克沃伊,史蒂芬斯。

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, Terry.

    早上好,特里。

  • Terry McEvoy - Analyst

    Terry McEvoy - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Maybe, John, I just want to make sure you agree with my math. Just hypothetically, if you held the $2.4 billion of CRE loans, that would be -- that would have an impact of, what, $34.6 million of NII. When I look at your presentation, and that's about $0.09, $0.10 of earnings. So again, hypothetical, but am I accurate there?

    嗨,早安。也許,約翰,我只是想確保你同意我的計算。假設一下,如果你持有 24 億美元的 CRE 貸款,那麼這將對 3,460 萬美元的 NII 產生影響。當我看你的簡報時,那是大約 0.09 美元、0.10 美元的收益。所以再次假設,但我的假設準確嗎?

  • John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

    John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hypothetically, Terry, you're accurate. You're directionally correct.

    從理論上講,特里,你是準確的。你的方向是正確的。

  • Terry McEvoy - Analyst

    Terry McEvoy - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you for that. And then I guess, I'll stick with the NII theme. What drives that step-up in the fourth quarter of $25 million. It seems like you're pretty neutral. And I asked that question just because based on our math, I'm getting a larger step-up in Q3, closer to that Q4 run rate that's on page 15.

    好的。謝謝你。然後我想,我會堅持 NII 主題。是什麼推動了第四季 2500 萬美元的成長?看起來你相當中立。我問這個問題只是因為根據我們的計算,我在第三季度獲得了更大的提升,更接近第 15 頁的第四季運行率。

  • John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

    John Moran - Chief Financial Officer

  • It's the [roll] of the fixed asset repricing, Terry, is a good chunk of that and just kind of timing of some of that [roll], and then growth being back-end loaded in the year on a kind of core organic basis.

    特里,這是固定資產重新定價的[滾動],佔了很大一部分,只是其中一部分的時機,然後增長在一年內以核心有機基礎後端加載。

  • Terry McEvoy - Analyst

    Terry McEvoy - Analyst

  • Perfect. Great. Thanks for taking my question. Appreciate it.

    完美的。偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。非常感謝。

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Terry, I would just add, I think the up-to number, I've encouraged us to continue to look at some selective pruning. Regardless of where the capital comes in, I think it is an opportunity that you get with the purchase accounting marks to optimize the portfolio.

    特里,我只想補充一點,我認為,就目前的數字而言,我鼓勵我們繼續考慮一些選擇性修剪。無論資金來自哪裡,我認為這都是透過購買會計標記來優化投資組合的機會。

  • So I've encouraged us to continue to look for those opportunities to make sure that it's the portfolio we want to own for the long time. So I would be shocked if we're able to keep a number that you just suggested. But nonetheless, it will be something that we'll look at really hard once we get the capital in from the day-one marks.

    因此,我鼓勵我們繼續尋找這些機會,以確保這是我們想要長期擁有的投資組合。因此,如果我們能夠保留您剛才建議的數字,我會感到震驚。但儘管如此,一旦我們從第一天起就獲得資金,我們就會認真考慮這件事。

  • Terry McEvoy - Analyst

    Terry McEvoy - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks for that, Jim.

    偉大的。謝謝你,吉姆。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Jim Ryan for closing remarks.

    目前沒有其他問題。我想請吉姆‧瑞安 (Jim Ryan) 作最後發言。

  • James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Ryan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, we appreciate all your participation. As usual, the full team will be here all day long to answer any questions you might have. Thank you very much.

    好吧,我們感謝您的參與。像往常一樣,整個團隊將全天在這裡解答您可能遇到的任何問題。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes Old National's call. Once again, a replay along with the presentation slides will be available for 12 months on the Investor Relations page of Old National's website, oldnational.com.

    Old National 的通話到此結束。再次強調,重播和簡報幻燈片將在 Old National 網站 oldnational.com 的投資者關係頁面上提供 12 個月。

  • A replay of the call will also be available by dialing 800-770-2030, access code 517-6690. This replay will be available through May 6. If anyone has additional questions, please contact Lynell Durchholz at 812-464-1366.

    撥打 800-770-2030(接入碼 517-6690)也可收聽通話重播。該重播將持續到 5 月 6 日。如果有人有其他問題,請聯絡 Lynell Durchholz,電話:812-464-1366。

  • Thank you for your participation in today's conference call.

    感謝您參加今天的電話會議。