Old National Bancorp (ONBPO) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the Old National Bancorp Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded and has been accessible to the public in accordance with the SEC's Regulation FD. Corresponding presentation slides can be found on the Investor Relations page at oldnational.com and will be archived there for 12 months. Management would like to remind everyone that certain statements on today's call may be forward-looking in nature and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results or outcomes to differ from those discussed.

    歡迎參加 Old National Bancorp 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。根據 SEC 的 FD 法規,本次通話正在錄音並向公眾開放。相應的演示幻燈片可以在 oldnational.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到,並將在那裡存檔 12 個月。管理層謹提醒大家,今天電話會議中的某些陳述可能具有前瞻性,並受到某些風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響,這些因素可能導致實際結果或結果與討論的結果不同。

  • The company refers you to its forward-looking statements legend in the earnings release and presentation slides. The company's risk factors are fully disclosed and discussed within the SEC filings. In addition, certain slides contain non-GAAP measures, which management believes provide more appropriate comparisons. These non-GAAP measures are intended to assist investors Understanding of performance trends, reconciliations for those numbers are contained within the appendix of the presentation.

    該公司請您參考收益發布和演示幻燈片中的前瞻性陳述圖例。該公司的風險因素在美國證券交易委員會的文件中得到了充分披露和討論。此外,某些幻燈片包含非公認會計準則衡量標準,管理層認為這些衡量標準提供了更合適的比較。這些非公認會計原則措施旨在幫助投資者了解業績趨勢,這些數字的調節包含在演示文稿的附錄中。

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to Old National CEO, Jim Ryan. Mr. Ryan, please go ahead.

    我現在想將電話轉給 Old National 首席執行官 Jim Ryan。瑞安先生,請繼續。

  • James C. Ryan - CEO & Director

    James C. Ryan - CEO & Director

  • Good morning. We are pleased to be with you today to share details about our strong second quarter performance. Simply put, the quarter was business as usual for Old National, with growth in deposits, solid liquidity and credit quality, disciplined loan growth and well-managed expenses.

    早上好。我們很高興今天與您分享有關我們第二季度強勁業績的詳細信息。簡而言之,老國民銀行本季度一切如常,存款增長,流動性和信貸質量穩定,貸款增長有序,費用管理良好。

  • The strength of our franchise remains evident in the results outlined on Slide 4. We reported EPS of $0.52 for the quarter, adjusted EPS was $0.54 per common share with adjusted ROA and ROATCE of 1.33% and 22%, respectively. Our adjusted efficiency ratio was a low 49%. Tangible book value, excluding AOCI, also increased 15% year-over-year. Deposit balances were up 4% during the quarter, with growth in core deposits of 2% as we continue to compete for new banking relationships effectively.

    我們的特許經營優勢在幻燈片4 概述的結果中仍然顯而易見。我們公佈的本季度每股收益為0.52 美元,調整後每股普通股每股收益為0.54 美元,調整後ROA 和ROATCE 分別為1.33%和22%。我們調整後的效率只有 49%。有形賬面價值(不包括 AOCI)也同比增長 15%。隨著我們繼續有效地爭取新的銀行業務關係,本季度存款餘額增長了 4%,核心存款增長了 2%。

  • Our total cost of deposits was 115 basis points and we maintained our deposit pricing discipline with a low 23% total deposit beta cycle to date. Our credit quality remained stable with 6 basis points of non-PCD related charge-offs. We remain watchful and consistent with other banks are focused on potential pockets of softness. Like our deposit portfolio, our loan portfolio is granular and relationship driven, which should continue to serve us well.

    我們的總存款成本為 115 個基點,並且迄今為止,我們維持了存款定價紀律,總存款 beta 週期保持在 23% 的低水平。我們的信用質量保持穩定,非 PCD 相關沖銷有 6 個基點。我們仍然保持警惕,並與其他銀行保持一致,重點關注潛在的疲軟領域。與我們的存款組合一樣,我們的貸款組合也是細粒度的、關係驅動的,這應該會繼續為我們提供良好的服務。

  • We remain confident in our client selection and underwriting. And as you know, Old National has taken a proactive approach to managing credit. This approach has served us well in the past and you see evidence of that stance this quarter's work to address any credit deterioration aggressively.

    我們對客戶選擇和承保仍然充滿信心。如您所知,老國民銀行採取了積極主動的方式來管理信貸。這種方法過去對我們很有幫助,您會看到本季度積極解決任何信用惡化問題的立場的證據。

  • On the client side, engagement remained high in the quarter. We expect full relationships with our borrowing clients. And to the extent that new or existing clients lack that potential, we will manage accordingly. We do, however, continue to expect disciplined loan portfolio growth in 2023.

    在客戶端方面,本季度的參與度仍然很高。我們期望與借款客戶建立全面的關係。如果新客戶或現有客戶缺乏這種潛力,我們將進行相應的管理。然而,我們仍然預計 2023 年貸款組合將出現嚴格的增長。

  • In other areas, it's more of the same. Our below peer deposit costs should drive a funding advantage, we expect to see organic growth of our wealth management client base and we continue to focus on disciplined expense management, while building tangible book value. We also continue to invest in top revenue-generating talent and expand into dynamic new markets within our footprint.

    在其他領域,情況也大致相同。我們低於同行的存款成本應該會帶來融資優勢,我們預計我們的財富管理客戶群將實現有機增長,我們將繼續專注於嚴格的費用管理,同時建立有形的賬面價值。我們還繼續投資頂級創收人才,並在我們的業務範圍內擴展到充滿活力的新市場。

  • We recently celebrated the opening of our first Metro Detroit area commercial banking office with a terrific new team, and we announced two prominent commercial relationship managers have joined our Nashville wealth management team. Before I turn things over to Brendon, I also want to take a moment to share that our Old National family continues to recover and heal from the Louisville tragedy on April 10 that claimed the lives of 5 of our team members and impacted so many others.

    最近,我們與一支出色的新團隊一起慶祝了我們在底特律都會區的第一家商業銀行辦事處的開業,並且我們宣布兩位著名的商業關係經理已加入我們的納什維爾財富管理團隊。在我把事情交給布倫登之前,我還想花點時間告訴大家,我們的Old National 大家庭仍在從4 月10 日路易斯維爾悲劇中恢復和癒合,這場悲劇奪走了我們5 名團隊成員的生命,並影響了許多其他人。

  • More than 3 months later, our ONB family continues to do our best to love, care for and support one another. Additionally, in June, our Downtown Louisville team began serving clients at a new location in the heart of Downtown Mobile. Once again, I want to thank countless individuals and organizations who have cared for and supported our family during this challenging time. I also want to acknowledge and thank our team members for their resiliency and their commitment to supporting one another.

    3個多月過去了,我們ONB一家人繼續竭盡全力彼此相愛、互相關心、互相支持。此外,六月,我們路易斯維爾市中心團隊開始在莫比爾市中心的新地點為客戶提供服務。我要再次感謝無數在這個充滿挑戰的時期關心和支持我們家庭的個人和組織。我還要感謝我們的團隊成員的韌性和相互支持的承諾。

  • With that, I will now turn the call over to Brendon to cover the quarterly results in more detail.

    現在,我將把電話轉給布倫登,以更詳細地介紹季度業績。

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • Thanks, Jim. Turning to our quarter end balance sheet on Slide 5. We continue to effectively navigate the challenging operating environment, achieving a more efficient balance sheet. We improved our earning asset mix with cash flows from our investment portfolio reinvested in loans, while their funding mix improved through higher deposit balances and lower borrowings. As a result, our loan-to-deposit ratio improved by 100 basis points, while strong earnings bolstered our capital levels and contributed to tangible book value growth despite facing AOCI headwinds.

    謝謝,吉姆。轉向幻燈片 5 上的季末資產負債表。我們繼續有效應對充滿挑戰的運營環境,實現更高效的資產負債表。我們通過將投資組合產生的現金流再投資於貸款來改善我們的盈利資產組合,同時通過提高存款餘額和減少借款來改善其融資組合。結果,我們的貸存比提高了 100 個基點,而強勁的盈利支撐了我們的資本水平,並為有形賬面價值增長做出了貢獻,儘管面臨 AOCI 的不利因素。

  • On Slide 6, we present the trend in total loan growth and portfolio yields. Total loans grew by 2%, in line with our expectations. We sold approximately $300 million of non-relationship C&I loans at par during the quarter as we look to manage liquidity while prioritizing lending to our clients with full banking relationships. The investment portfolio decreased by 2% and mainly due to portfolio cash flows and declines in fair values. Despite rate shifts, the duration remained steady at 4.4 years and is not expected to extend further. Cash flows from the portfolio are expected to be $1.2 billion over the next 12 months.

    在幻燈片 6 中,我們展示了總貸款增長和投資組合收益率的趨勢。貸款總額增長 2%,符合我們的預期。我們在本季度按面值出售了約 3 億美元的非關係 C&I 貸款,因為我們希望管理流動性,同時優先向擁有完整銀行關係的客戶提供貸款。投資組合下降2%,主要是由於投資組合現金流量和公允價值下降。儘管利率發生變化,期限仍穩定在 4.4 年,預計不會進一步延長。未來 12 個月,該投資組合的現金流預計為 12 億美元。

  • Moving to Slide 7. We show our trend in total deposits, which increased $1.3 billion or 4% quarter-over-quarter. Core deposits grew approximately $800 million, including $490 million of normal seasonal public inflows. The trend in average deposits reflects the continued mix shift away from noninterest-bearing accounts into money markets and CDs. Market conditions continue to put upward pressure on deposit rates with interest-bearing deposit costs increasing 57 basis points to 1.66% and resulting in a cycle-to-date interest-bearing deposit beta of 33%.

    轉到幻燈片 7。我們展示了存款總額的趨勢,存款總額增加了 13 億美元,環比增長 4%。核心存款增長約 8 億美元,其中包括 4.9 億美元的正常季節性公眾流入。平均存款的趨勢反映了從無息賬戶向貨幣市場和存款證的持續轉變。市場狀況繼續對存款利率構成上行壓力,計息存款成本增加 57 個基點至 1.66%,導致周期至今計息存款貝塔值為 33%。

  • Total deposit costs were relatively low at 1.15%, which equates to a cycle-to-date total deposit beta of 23%. While it's challenging to estimate the terminal beta, we had a strong track record of managing deposit rates and are confident we can maintain our funding cost advantage throughout the remainder of the rate cycle. Our disciplined approach to exception pricing has allowed us to successfully defend deposit balances and our targeted promotions have resulted in above peer deposit growth.

    總存款成本相對較低,為 1.15%,相當於本週期迄今為止的總存款貝塔值為 23%。雖然估計最終貝塔值具有挑戰性,但我們在管理存款利率方面擁有良好的記錄,並且有信心在利率週期的剩餘時間內保持我們的融資成本優勢。我們嚴格的例外定價方法使我們能夠成功捍衛存款餘額,而我們的有針對性的促銷活動導致存款增長高於同行。

  • Slide 8 provides our quarter-end income statement. We reported GAAP net income applicable to common shares of $151 million or $0.52 per share. Reported earnings includes $6 million in pretax merger-related and other charges. Excluding these items, our adjusted earnings per share was $0.54. Our profitability continues to be strong with an adjusted return on average tangible common equity of 22.1% and adjusted return on average assets of 1.33%.

    幻燈片 8 提供了我們的季末損益表。我們公佈的適用於普通股的 GAAP 淨利潤為 1.51 億美元,即每股 0.52 美元。報告收益包括 600 萬美元的稅前合併相關費用和其他費用。排除這些項目,我們調整後的每股收益為 0.54 美元。我們的盈利能力繼續保持強勁,調整後的平均有形普通股回報率為 22.1%,調整後的平均資產回報率為 1.33%。

  • Moving on to Slide 9. We present details of our net interest income and margin. Both metrics surpassed our expectations as we reported a linked quarter increase in net interest income and experienced lower-than-anticipated margin compression. Our strong performance was bolstered by the 0.25 point rate hike by the Fed in May and our better-than-expected deposit growth. Furthermore, we continue to make progress towards achieving our targeted neutral rate risk position by the end of the rate cycle, while prudently adding protection against any sudden reversal and Fed rate policy.

    轉到幻燈片 9。我們展示淨利息收入和利潤率的詳細信息。這兩項指標都超出了我們的預期,因為我們報告淨利息收入季度環比增長,並且利潤率壓縮低於預期。美聯儲 5 月份加息 0.25 個基點以及好於預期的存款增長支撐了我們的強勁表現。此外,我們繼續在利率週期結束前實現中性利率風險目標目標方面取得進展,同時審慎地增加針對任何突然逆轉和美聯儲利率政策的保護。

  • Slide 10 shows trends in adjusted noninterest income, which was $82 million for the quarter. Our primary fee businesses remained stable, but we did benefit from a $4 million increase in other income that we would not anticipate in our run rate next quarter. The items driving that increase were company-owned life insurance revenues, a recovery from a prior charged-off asset and positive derivative valuations associated with the transition from LIBOR to SOFR.

    幻燈片 10 顯示了調整後非利息收入的趨勢,該季度為 8200 萬美元。我們的主要收費業務保持穩定,但我們確實受益於其他收入增加 400 萬美元,而我們在下季度的運行率中預計不會出現這種情況。推動這一增長的因素包括公司擁有的人壽保險收入、先前沖銷資產的恢復以及與從倫敦銀行同業拆借利率 (LIBOR) 到 SOFR 過渡相關的積極衍生品估值。

  • Continuing to Slide 11, we show the trend in adjusted noninterest expenses. Adjusted expenses were $241 million, and our adjusted efficiency ratio was a low 49.4%. Our expenses were well controlled and consistent with the previous quarter, excluding a $5 million increase in incentive accruals related to our strong year-to-date performance. This would equate to a Q3 run rate of $237.5 million.

    繼續幻燈片 11,我們顯示了調整後的非利息支出的趨勢。調整後費用為 2.41 億美元,調整後效率僅為 49.4%。我們的支出得到了很好的控制,與上一季度保持一致,不包括與我們年初至今的強勁業績相關的 500 萬美元的應計獎勵增加。這相當於第三季度的運行費用為 2.375 億美元。

  • On Slide 12, we present our credit trends, which remained stable, reflecting the strong performance of both our commercial and consumer portfolios. Delinquencies have decreased and net charge-offs have remained steady at a modest 6 basis points, excluding the 7 basis point impact from PCD loans. The rise in nonperforming loans primarily stems from the anticipated migration of PCD credits as we maintain an aggressive approach to resolving these loans. While charge-offs from this portfolio are expected to remain elevated in the short term, we expect minimal impact on provision expense, given that we currently carry a $39 million or approximately 4% reserve against this book.

    在幻燈片 12 中,我們展示了我們的信貸趨勢,該趨勢保持穩定,反映出我們的商業和消費者投資組合的強勁表現。拖欠率有所下降,淨沖銷保持穩定在 6 個基點,不包括 PCD 貸款 7 個基點的影響。不良貸款的增加主要源於 PCD 信貸的預期遷移,因為我們保持積極的態度來解決這些貸款。雖然該投資組合的沖銷預計在短期內仍將保持較高水平,但考慮到我們目前對該賬簿持有 3900 萬美元或約 4% 的準備金,我們預計對撥備費用的影響很小。

  • Our second quarter allowance, including reserve for unfunded commitments stands at $338 million or 104 basis points of total loans. The modest reserve increase was largely driven by loan growth, partially offset by adjustments in our economic forecast. We continue to rely on a 100% weighted Moody's S3 scenario that projects peak unemployment of 7.2% and negative GDP growth of 3.1%. Barring any significant deterioration beyond these economic assumptions, we expect provision expense to remain limited to portfolio performance and loan growth.

    我們第二季度的準備金(包括無資金承諾準備金)為 3.38 億美元,相當於貸款總額的 104 個基點。準備金的小幅增長主要是由貸款增長推動的,但部分被我們經濟預測的調整所抵消。我們繼續依賴 100% 加權穆迪 S3 情景,該情景預計失業率將達到 7.2% 的峰值,GDP 負增長將達到 3.1%。除非出現超出這些經濟假設的重大惡化,否則我們預計撥備支出仍將僅限於投資組合表現和貸款增長。

  • Shifting to key areas of focus on Slide 14, you will see further details on our loan portfolio. Our commercial loan book, which constitutes approximately 70% of our total loans is granular and well diversified. Our nonowner-occupied CRE is also well diversified across various asset classes and geographies. Regarding nonowner-occupied office properties, the majority of the portfolio was comprised of suburban or medical offices with a significant portion of credit tenant leases. Only a negligible percentage, less than 1% of total loans is attributed to properties located within central business districts that are geographically dispersed across 11 Midwestern cities in our footprint.

    轉向幻燈片 14 上的重點關注領域,您將看到有關我們貸款組合的更多詳細信息。我們的商業貸款賬目約佔貸款總額的 70%,是細粒度且高度多元化的。我們的非業主自用商業地產在不同資產類別和地區也實現了多元化。至於非業主自住的辦公物業,大部分投資組合由郊區或醫療辦公室組成,其中很大一部分是信用租戶租賃。只有一小部分(不到總貸款的 1%)屬於位於中央商務區的房產,這些房產在地理上分散在我們足跡中的 11 個中西部城市。

  • On Slide 15, we provide highlights from a recent examination of fixed rate CRE maturities over the next 18 months, less than 1% of total loans that are nonowner occupied CRE mature within 18 months and carry a note rate of less than 4%. Our approach to underwriting CRE includes a 300 basis point margin over the current rates at the time of origination. While these maturing credits have surpassed the original underwriting stress coupon, we have observed improved net operating income from higher rents. This improvement has been sufficient to uphold debt service ratios in line with our underwriting guidelines, and we believe the refinance risk in this portfolio to be minimal.

    在幻燈片15 中,我們提供了最近對未來18 個月內固定利率CRE 到期日進行的檢查的要點,非所有者佔用的CRE 貸款總額中不到1% 在18 個月內到期且票據利率低於4%。我們承保 CRE 的方法包括在發起時的現行利率基礎上提供 300 個基點的保證金。雖然這些到期信貸已經超過了最初的承保壓力息票,但我們觀察到租金上漲帶來了淨營業收入的改善。這一改善足以維持償債比率符合我們的承保准則,而且我們認為該投資組合的再融資風險很小。

  • Slide 16 details our Q2 commercial production. The $1.9 billion of production was well balanced across all product lines and major markets. As discussed on last quarter's call, we have tightened our pricing standards, enhanced our credit structure and reinforced with our RMs, the importance of acquiring a full banking relationship for new loan requests. As a result of these actions and strong Q2 production, our pipeline has decreased to $3.1 billion and is consistent with low to mid-single-digit loan growth we expect in the back half of the year.

    幻燈片 16 詳細介紹了我們第二季度的商業生產。 19 億美元的產量在所有產品線和主要市場中實現了良好平衡。正如上季度電話會議中所討論的,我們收緊了定價標準,增強了信貸結構,並通過我們的客戶經理強化了為新貸款請求獲取完整銀行關係的重要性。由於這些行動和第二季度強勁的生產,我們的管道已減少至 31 億美元,與我們預計今年下半年低至中個位數的貸款增長一致。

  • On Slide 17, we present further insights into our deposit base. Our average core deposit balance is meaningfully lower than peers. 81% of our accounts have less than $25,000 on deposit and carrying an average balance of just $4,500. It's important to highlight that we maintain strong enduring relationships with our deposit customers, 50% of which have been with the bank for over 15 years. Our top 20 deposit clients represent only 5% of total deposits and have a weighted average tenure of greater than 30 years. Lastly, our broker deposits were 3.5% of total deposits at the end of the quarter, which we expect to be well below peer average.

    在幻燈片 17 中,我們進一步深入了解了我們的存款基礎。我們的平均核心存款餘額明顯低於同行。我們 81% 的賬戶存款不足 25,000 美元,平均餘額僅為 4,500 美元。需要強調的是,我們與存款客戶保持著牢固持久的關係,其中 50% 的存款客戶已與銀行合作超過 15 年。我們的前 20 名存款客戶僅佔總存款的 5%,且加權平均期限超過 30 年。最後,截至本季度末,我們的經紀商存款佔總存款的 3.5%,我們預計該數字將遠低於同行平均水平。

  • On Slide 18, we provide a comprehensive overview of our capital position at the end of the quarter. We observed improvements in all regulatory capital ratios and maintain stability in our TCE ratio despite facing the negative impact of increasing AOCI. Our above peer return on tangible common equity, coupled with our peer average dividend payout ratio should result in us accreting capital at a faster rate than most. Additionally, we anticipate 30% of our outstanding AOCI to accrete to capital by the end of 2024. We did not repurchase any shares in the quarter and do not intend to do so in the near term as we focus on capital growth.

    在幻燈片 18 中,我們全面概述了本季度末的資本狀況。儘管面臨 AOCI 增加的負面影響,我們觀察到所有監管資本比率均有所改善,並且 TCE 比率保持穩定。我們高於同行的有形普通股回報率,加上我們同行的平均股息支付率,應該會導致我們以比大多數公司更快的速度積累資本。此外,我們預計到 2024 年底,我們未償 AOCI 的 30% 將轉化為資本。我們在本季度沒有回購任何股票,也不打算在短期內這樣做,因為我們專注於資本增長。

  • In summary, our strong second quarter performance marked the successful conclusion of the first half of 2023, with results slightly exceeding our expectations. We have improved the efficiency ratio of our balance sheet through a better earning asset mix, strong core deposit growth led to a better funding mix, and we grew tangible book value per share by 15%, excluding OCI impact. Despite the challenging rate environment, our net interest income grew quarter-over-quarter, largely due to the strong execution of our deposit strategy. We have demonstrated an ability to both expand our customer base while maintaining peer-leading deposit costs. Our credit portfolio remains stable and our disciplined approach to managing expenses is evident in our quarterly adjusted efficiency ratio of 49.4%.

    綜上所述,我們強勁的第二季度業績標誌著 2023 年上半年的圓滿結束,業績略超出我們的預期。我們通過更好的盈利資產組合提高了資產負債表的效率,強勁的核心存款增長帶來了更好的融資組合,每股有形賬面價值增長了 15%(不包括 OCI 影響)。儘管利率環境充滿挑戰,我們的淨利息收入仍環比增長,這主要歸功於我們存款策略的強勁執行。我們已經證明有能力擴大客戶群,同時保持同行領先的存款成本。我們的信貸組合保持穩定,我們嚴格的費用管理方法從我們 49.4% 的季度調整效率中可見一斑。

  • Slide 20 includes thoughts on our outlook for the remainder of 2023. We believe our current pipeline should support second half 2023 loan growth in the low to mid-single-digit range, with full year growth in the mid- to high single-digit range. We continue to target at or above industry deposit growth and we are reconfirming our guide on 9% to 12% year-over-year net interest income increase with a stronger conviction towards the higher end of this range. The key assumptions in this guidance include one more rate hike and a through-the-cycle interest-bearing deposit beta of 43% to 53% by year-end and noninterest-bearing deposits falling to 28%.

    幻燈片 20 包括我們對 2023 年剩餘時間的展望的想法。我們認為,我們目前的渠道應該支持 2023 年下半年貸款增長在中低個位數範圍內,全年增長在中高個位數範圍內。我們繼續將目標定為行業存款增長或高於行業存款增長,並再次確認淨利息收入同比增長 9% 至 12% 的指導方針,並對這一範圍的高端更有信心。該指引的關鍵假設包括再次加息,以及到年底全週期計息存款貝塔值達到 43% 至 53%,無息存款降至 28%。

  • We expect fee businesses to be stable in the back half of 2023 with the exception of the $4 million in non-run rate items we noted earlier. Our expense outlook is adjusted to approximately $949 million for full year 2023, excluding merger-related charges and property optimization related expenses. This reflects our prior guidance of $939 million, adjusted upward by $10 million for higher incentive accruals. $5 million of this has already been accrued at quarter end. Provision expense share continue to be limited to loan growth, portfolio changes and non-PCD charge-offs as we believe we have adequate reserves against the PCD book.

    我們預計,除了我們之前提到的 400 萬美元的非運行費率項目外,收費業務在 2023 年下半年將保持穩定。我們將 2023 年全年的費用前景調整為約 9.49 億美元,不包括合併相關費用和財產優化相關費用。這反映了我們先前指導的 9.39 億美元,為提高應計激勵而向上調整了 1000 萬美元。其中 500 萬美元已在季度末預提。撥備費用份額繼續僅限於貸款增長、投資組合變化和非 PCD 沖銷,因為我們相信我們對 PCD 賬簿有足夠的準備金。

  • Turning to taxes. We expect approximately $8 million in tax credit amortization for the remainder of 2023 with a corresponding full year effective tax rate of 25% on a core FTE basis and 23% on a GAAP basis. With those comments, I'd like to open up the call for your questions. We do have the full team available including Mark Sander, Jim Sandgren and John Moran.

    轉向稅收。我們預計 2023 年剩餘時間的稅收抵免攤銷約為 800 萬美元,對應的全年有效稅率(按核心 FTE 計算)為 25%,按 GAAP 計算為 23%。帶著這些評論,我想開始詢問你們的問題。我們擁有完整的團隊,包括馬克·桑德 (Mark Sander)、吉姆·桑德格倫 (Jim Sandgren) 和約翰·莫蘭 (John Moran)。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Ben Gerlinger with Hovde Group.

    (操作員說明)我們將回答 Hovde Group 的 Ben Gerlinger 提出的第一個問題。

  • Benjamin Tyson Gerlinger - MD

    Benjamin Tyson Gerlinger - MD

  • Hate to do a modeling question upfront, but you guys gave a lot of guidance with both the left and right side of the balance sheet, more specifically to the cost of liabilities and deposits going forward. The one piece that I think was missing and I kind of just back into it a little bit, what was the average earning asset yield or what you might see an uptick in terms of the next rate hike. So putting it all together, I'm coming up with a margin around 3.4% kind of at year-end. I might be off by a couple of bps here and there, but is that -- do you think that's a fair assumption? And then what would be some possible factors that could be above or below that?

    討厭預先做一個建模問題,但是你們在資產負債表的左側和右側提供了很多指導,更具體地說是針對未來負債和存款的成本。我認為缺少的一點是,我稍微回顧了一下,平均收益資產收益率是多少,或者下一次加息時你可能會看到什麼上升。因此,將所有因素加在一起,我得出年底的利潤率約為 3.4%。我可能會在這里或那裡偏離幾個基點,但是——你認為這是一個公平的假設嗎?那麼可能高於或低於該值的因素有哪些呢?

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • Yes. I think you're in the ballpark, Ben. I think what we need to think about is what is the velocity of deposit pricing going forward and how well can we do against that deposit beta guide we got. I can tell you today, the velocity does seem to have slowed. I know we're 1 month into the third quarter. But I think there's some potential upside there. And we do have still a significant amount of fixed asset repricing, fixed pricing assets that we'll replace for the next 12 months, that's meaningful. It could and it should help defer a lot of this kind of late cycle deposit repricing that we have. So I think those are the two items that probably offset margin pressure going forward.

    是的。我想你是在大致範圍內,本。我認為我們需要考慮的是存款定價的未來速度是多少,以及我們能根據我們得到的存款貝塔指南做得如何。今天我可以告訴你,速度似乎確實變慢了。我知道第三季度已經過去 1 個月了。但我認為那裡有一些潛在的好處。我們確實還有大量固定資產重新定價、固定定價資產,我們將在未來 12 個月內更換這些資產,這很有意義。它可以而且應該有助於推遲我們現有的大量此類後期存款重新定價。因此,我認為這兩項可能會抵消未來的利潤率壓力。

  • Benjamin Tyson Gerlinger - MD

    Benjamin Tyson Gerlinger - MD

  • Got you. And then just kind of following up on that. Is it just erring on the side of conservatism, because you guys do have a really healthy deposit franchise that your beta kind of -- that doesn't whipsaw nearly as much as some of the lower quality peers, I guess, you could say. So like is it more just elongation? It just seems a little conservative to me, but you guys probably have a better advantage point.

    明白你了。然後就跟進一下。這是否只是在保守主義方面犯了錯誤,因為你們確實擁有一個非常健康的存款特許經營權,你們的測試版有點像——我想,你可能會說,這不像一些質量較低的同行那樣受到衝擊。那麼它更像是伸長嗎?對我來說這似乎有點保守,但你們可能有更好的優勢點。

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • I think our through the cycle deposit beta that we put out there. I think that range, I think, seems reasonable. Time will tell. But what we continue to say whatever the deposit betas do for the industry, we think we outperform it at the end of the day. That's our best guess today in this environment and will we try to outperform it? Absolutely. One thing we're certainly confident is we can be better than peers.

    我認為我們已經通過了我們在那裡推出的周期存款測試版。我認為這個範圍似乎是合理的。時間會證明一切。但我們繼續說,無論存款貝塔值對行業有何影響,我們認為最終我們的表現會優於它。這是我們今天在這種環境下的最佳猜測,我們會努力超越它嗎?絕對地。我們確信的一件事是我們可以比同行做得更好。

  • Benjamin Tyson Gerlinger - MD

    Benjamin Tyson Gerlinger - MD

  • Got you. That's great. And then one more kind of just changing topics a little bit. You kind of historically modeled for the worst-case scenario based on Moody's S3 and with that as the backdrop, if you guys are slowing loan growth, does that kind of negate the economic factors associated with CECL? Or is it more bad could get worse and their modeling, therefore, you go lower. What I'm really getting at here is you're slowing loan growth, should the provision come down as well, assuming there's no credit events?

    明白你了。那太棒了。然後還有一種只是稍微改變一下話題。你們歷史上是根據穆迪的 S3 為最壞情況建模的,以此為背景,如果你們放慢貸款增長,這是否會抵消與 CECL 相關的經濟因素?或者是更糟糕可能會變得更糟,他們的建模因此,你會變得更低。我在這裡真正想說的是,假設沒有信貸事件,貸款增長放緩,準備金是否也應該下降?

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • See, our provision should be generally limited to loan growth and non-PCD charge-offs. And so if loan growth moderates a little bit, that should moderate provision expense going forward.

    看,我們的準備金一般應僅限於貸款增長和非 PCD 沖銷。因此,如果貸款增長稍微放緩,未來的撥備支出就會減少。

  • Benjamin Tyson Gerlinger - MD

    Benjamin Tyson Gerlinger - MD

  • All right. Sounds good. Appreciate it. Great quarter. I hope the rest of year continues this trend.

    好的。聽起來不錯。欣賞它。很棒的季度。我希望今年餘下的時間能夠繼續這種趨勢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

    接下來,我們將與派珀·桑德勒 (Piper Sandler) 一起前往斯科特·西弗斯 (Scott Siefers)。

  • Robert Scott Siefers - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Robert Scott Siefers - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Just wanted to ask a question on NII. So obviously, really good performance. I'm glad to see the sturdy guide. Brendon, maybe if you could offer just sort of any thoughts you might have or be comfortable with sort of when and why you would see NII ultimately bottoming? And to the extent possible, what would happen to it thereafter? I mean, presumably, it becomes a function of loan growth and sort of back book repricing, but maybe just sort of nuances of upcoming ebbs and flows in NII in the aggregate?

    只是想問一個關於NII的問題。很明顯,性能非常好。我很高興看到堅強的指南。 Brendon,也許您可​​以提供您可能有的任何想法,或者您對何時以及為什麼會看到 NII 最終觸底感到滿意?在可能的情況下,此後會發生什麼?我的意思是,大概,它成為貸款增長和某種背書重新定價的函數,但也許只是 NII 總體上即將出現的潮起潮落的細微差別?

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • Yes. I think it's impossible to predict with any level of kind of precision when on bottoms out and at what level I can tell you that we continue to run an asset under the balance sheet, and the next rate hike will help offset any deposit headwinds as we've talked about a little earlier. I think the pace of deposit pricing has slowed a little bit. So I don't want to call the end. But certainly, there's more probably downside pressure than upside opportunity at this point.

    是的。我認為不可能以任何水平的精確度來預測何時觸底,以及在什麼水平上我可以告訴你,我們將繼續在資產負債表下運行資產,下一次加息將有助於抵消任何存款逆風,因為我們早些時候已經談到過。我認為存款定價的步伐已經放緩了一些。所以我不想結束。但可以肯定的是,目前下行壓力可能多於上行機會。

  • Robert Scott Siefers - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Robert Scott Siefers - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. And as it relates to the noninterest-bearing deposits, which -- so I think we have gone down to -- or assume they go down to 28% from roughly 30% today. Maybe just sort of the background as to what you guys are thinking that leads you to believe that's the right number? In other words, what are sort of the risks, but also what you're seeing that suggest they will settle out fairly soon?

    好的。因為它與無息存款有關,所以我認為我們已經下降到或假設它們從今天的大約 30% 下降到 28%。也許只是你們的想法背景使您相信這是正確的數字?換句話說,風險有哪些,以及您所看到的情況表明這些風險很快就會解決?

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • Yes. We're monitoring the pace of that transition at an interest-bearing into higher interest-bearing account. This is probably maybe the most aggressive of the assumptions in there, but probably has maybe the smallest impact in terms of our guide. So I don't think it moves around our NII guidance significantly if we missed that by a couple of percentage points. But Scott, honestly, it's our best guess. That's a tough one to call, but we're monitoring the behaviors, and we feel comfortable with that level now, and we'll update you if that changes.

    是的。我們正在監測從計息賬戶向更高計息賬戶轉變的速度。這可能是其中最激進的假設,但就我們的指南而言,可能影響最小。因此,我認為,如果我們錯過了幾個百分點,它就不會顯著偏離我們的國家信息基礎設施指引。但斯科特,老實說,這是我們最好的猜測。這個很難說,但我們正在監控這些行為,我們現在對這個水平感到滿意,如果情況發生變化,我們會通知您。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And next, we'll go to David Long with Raymond James.

    接下來,我們將請來大衛·朗和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

  • David Joseph Long - MD & Senior Analyst

    David Joseph Long - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Let's stick with the deposit discussion here. And the question I have is, it seems like June, there was a lot of competition as banks wanted to show deposit growth in the quarter. Is your sense that maybe deposit competition has eased in July? And then as a second part of that, throughout the second quarter and into here in July, where are you seeing the biggest competition? Is it the G-SIBs? Is it the regionals? Is it the community banks? Where is it most competitive?

    我們還是繼續討論存款吧。我的問題是,六月份似乎存在很多競爭,因為銀行希望在本季度顯示存款增長。您是否覺得 7 月份存款競爭可能有所緩解?然後,作為第二部分,從整個第二季度到 7 月份,您在哪裡看到最大的競爭?是 G-SIB 嗎?是地區性的嗎?是社區銀行嗎?哪裡最有競爭力?

  • Mark G. Sander - President & COO

    Mark G. Sander - President & COO

  • Yes. I don't think that -- David, it's Mark. I don't think that competition has eased. I would say the pace of increase is at ease is what Brendon was trying to convey. So we stay competitive. We're staying in the upper half of the market in terms of our rate positioning. And I just think there's still fierce competition and where it's coming from, frankly, everywhere. And so more of a midsized banks than anything else, the SIFIs don't have to compete as much as -- but all of our markets have plenty of competition, and I think it's still pretty healthy out there.

    是的。我不這麼認為——大衛,是馬克。我認為競爭並沒有減弱。我想說,增長的步伐是輕鬆的,這就是布倫登試圖傳達的信息。所以我們保持競爭力。就我們的利率定位而言,我們仍處於市場的上半部分。我只是認為競爭仍然很激烈,坦率地說,競爭來自哪裡。因此,SIFI 更像是一家中型銀行,因此不必像其他銀行那樣競爭——但我們所有的市場都有充足的競爭,而且我認為它仍然相當健康。

  • David Joseph Long - MD & Senior Analyst

    David Joseph Long - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Got it. Cool. Okay. And then Secondly, I wanted to ask about your appetite to hire additional commercial bankers. I know you guys have had a lot of success over the last year or 2 in that. Are you still looking to hire within your footprint? And if so, what is the commercial banker that's attractive to look like?

    知道了。涼爽的。好的。其次,我想問一下您是否願意僱用更多的商業銀行家。我知道你們在過去的一兩年裡在這方面取得了很大的成功。您還在尋找在您的足跡範圍內招聘員工嗎?如果是這樣,那麼有吸引力的商業銀行家是什麼樣的?

  • Mark G. Sander - President & COO

    Mark G. Sander - President & COO

  • The answer to your question is yes. So we'll always stay in the market. We've got a long-term view, and we've suspend -- a lot of it will repeat it. Good revenue producers pay for themselves quickly even in this environment. We're building a model for the long term. And people -- we've got a good story to tell, and we want to take advantage of that when people are looking to make a move and frankly, being proactive with people who might not be looking to make a move.

    你的問題的答案是肯定的。所以我們將永遠留在市場上。我們有長遠的眼光,我們已經暫停了——很多都會重複。即使在這種環境下,優秀的收入生產者也能很快收回成本。我們正在建立一個長期模型。對於人們來說,我們有一個好故事要講,當人們想要採取行動時,我們希望利用這一點,坦率地說,對那些可能不想採取行動的人採取積極主動的態度。

  • We have slowed the pace of hiring this year largely because we don't need to add folks, we just are being opportunistic. But we still hired 9 revenue producers across wealth and commercial in Q2, and we'll continue to look for it. The prototypical profile is a seasoned 10 to 15 or more year banker. Who's relationship banking within our markets, I guess, is the best way to put it.

    我們今年放慢了招聘速度,主要是因為我們不需要增加人員,我們只是在尋找機會。但我們在第二季度仍然聘請了 9 名跨財富和商業的收入創造者,我們將繼續尋找。典型的形像是經驗豐富的 10 至 15 年或更長時間的銀行家。我想,我們市場中的關係銀行是最好的表達方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to Chris McGratty with KBW.

    接下來,我們將請到 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

  • Christopher Edward McGratty - Head of United States Bank Research & MD

    Christopher Edward McGratty - Head of United States Bank Research & MD

  • Brendon, maybe another one for you. I think the market consensus is that we stay higher for longer after this week's Fed move. If that plays out to the earlier comments on margins. Should the narrative get a little bit harder next year? Or is it kind of a balancing effort you can kind of hold margins?

    布倫登,也許再給你一份。我認為市場共識是,在本周美聯儲采取行動後,我們將在更長時間內保持較高水平。如果這符合之前關於利潤率的評論。明年的敘述是否應該變得更加困難一些?或者這是一種可以保持利潤的平衡努力?

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • I think it's a balancing act, right? It's that side to hold margin, Rich. We all play -- and I think we have an advantage over most others given the quality of our deposit franchise with the velocity of deposit costs can slow. Like I said, we have a lot of earning assets at fixed rates that are going to reprice meaningfully higher. Our fixed rate book is going to reprice 180 basis points above kind of runoff fields. Our invest portfolio that we're reinvesting into loans is plus 400 basis points. So I think we have the tools and the balance sheet to help fight for flat in a higher for longer rate environment.

    我認為這是一種平衡行為,對嗎?里奇,這是持有保證金的那一邊。我們都在玩——我認為,鑑於我們的存款特許經營權的質量以及存款成本的速度可能會放緩,我認為我們比大多數其他人有優勢。就像我說的,我們有很多固定利率的盈利資產,這些資產的重新定價將會大幅提高。我們的固定利率賬簿將重新定價,比徑流場高 180 個基點。我們再投資於貸款的投資組合增加了 400 個基點。因此,我認為我們擁有工具和資產負債表來幫助在更高、更長期的利率環境中爭取穩定。

  • Christopher Edward McGratty - Head of United States Bank Research & MD

    Christopher Edward McGratty - Head of United States Bank Research & MD

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then in terms of capital, Jim, you talked to just about everything is kind of on hold given the environment. What are you looking for to kind of make a switch to returning more capital?

    好的。這很有幫助。然後就資本而言,吉姆,你談到,考慮到環境,一切都被擱置了。您希望通過什麼方式轉向返還更多資本?

  • James C. Ryan - CEO & Director

    James C. Ryan - CEO & Director

  • There's an awful lot to play out here with respect to the economy and the last rate move. I think like all investors, right? I mean I think we're trying to answer those questions. And then I think we get more comfort and how do we think about returning capital in which form. So I think we get more clarity as the year continues to progress and would have better OpEx heading into next year.

    關於經濟和最近的利率變動,這裡有很多事情要做。我想像所有投資者一樣,對嗎?我的意思是我認為我們正在努力回答這些問題。然後我認為我們會更加放心,我們如何考慮以哪種形式返還資本。因此,我認為隨著這一年的不斷進展,我們會變得更加清晰,並且明年的運營支出將會更好。

  • Christopher Edward McGratty - Head of United States Bank Research & MD

    Christopher Edward McGratty - Head of United States Bank Research & MD

  • Okay. And maybe if I could just sneak one more in. Brendon, I think you mentioned $4 million of kind of non-run rate fees. So that would put you kind of $77 million, $78 million kind of ballpark for quarterly fees. I want to make sure I understood that. And then given the tax benefit in the quarter, I know you gave a full year guide, but do you have what the back of the envelope is for the back half of the year with that adjustment?

    好的。也許我可以再偷偷加一筆。布倫登,我想你提到了 400 萬美元的非運行費率。這樣一來,您的季度費用大約為 7700 萬美元、7800 萬美元。我想確保我理解這一點。然後考慮到本季度的稅收優惠,我知道您提供了全年指南,但是您是否了解下半年調整後的情況?

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • Yes. I think that $78 million, $77 million is the right -- the right number for fee going forward given sort of mortgage and capital markets headwinds. And then on the tax rate, I think that full year guide probably approximates the back two quarters.

    是的。我認為 7800 萬美元、7700 萬美元是正確的——考慮到抵押貸款和資本市場的不利因素,這是未來費用的正確數字。然後關於稅率,我認為全年指南可能大約是後兩個季度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to Terry McEvoy with Stephens.

    接下來,我們將和斯蒂芬斯一起去特里·麥克沃伊。

  • Terence James McEvoy - MD & Research Analyst

    Terence James McEvoy - MD & Research Analyst

  • Maybe the decline in the loan pipeline, the $5.4 billion to $3.1 billion, how much of that is internal focus on the full relationship and just tightening things up versus just less market demand out there?

    也許貸款渠道的減少,從 54 億美元到 31 億美元,其中有多少是內部對全面關係的關注以及只是收緊事情而不是市場需求減少?

  • Mark G. Sander - President & COO

    Mark G. Sander - President & COO

  • Yes. Terry, it's Mark. I wouldn't put percentages on it, but more is driven by our internal, our focus than it is external. I mean, certainly, CRE markets have retracted a bit and they are not adaptive. So there's some of that, but more of it is, frankly, our rationing our balance sheet. And as Jim and Brendon both alluded to in our comments, we're a relationship bank, and we always are that way. But occasionally, in the past, you've got times where you lead with credit in this environment, we're not doing that. Deposits have to come say one. And if the pipeline didn't have -- reflect that, we moved them out of the pipeline. So we've rationed our pipeline down proactively.

    是的。特里,是馬克。我不會給出百分比,但更多的是由我們的內部、我們的關注點驅動,而不是外部。我的意思是,商業地產市場確實已經有所回落,而且不具有適應性。所以有一些,但坦率地說,更多的是我們對資產負債表的配給。正如吉姆和布倫登在我們的評論中提到的那樣,我們是一家關係銀行,而且我們一直都是這樣。但有時,在過去,你有時會在這種環境下以信用來領導,但我們不會這樣做。存款必須來一說。如果管道沒有——反映這一點,我們就把它們移出管道。因此,我們主動限制了我們的管道。

  • Terence James McEvoy - MD & Research Analyst

    Terence James McEvoy - MD & Research Analyst

  • And then just overall managing the size of the balance sheet, what's your appetite for additional loan sales? And will the cash flow from the securities portfolio be utilized to fund loan growth?

    然後,從總體上管理資產負債表的規模來看,您對額外貸款銷售的興趣是什麼?證券投資組合的現金流是否會被用來為貸款增長提供資金?

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • Yes, Terry, this is Brendon. Yes, we're lastly use the best portfolio to continue to fund loans. And I think to the extent that deposits continue to grow to fund our loan growth. We'll use that. If it doesn't, there's opportunities to continue to pair, but it won't be significant or sizable.

    是的,特里,這是布倫登。是的,我們最終使用最好的投資組合來繼續為貸款提供資金。我認為存款的持續增長可以為我們的貸款增長提供資金。我們會用它。如果沒有,還有機會繼續配對,但不會很重要或很大。

  • Terence James McEvoy - MD & Research Analyst

    Terence James McEvoy - MD & Research Analyst

  • And maybe just one last one. I mean the expense guide, I just want to make sure it fully captures what Jim talked about in terms of the Southeast Michigan and Detroit build out, what you're doing in wealth management, what you're doing in Nashville, you've got a lot of growth initiatives, but you've really been able to self-fund it. And haven't raised the expense guidance, which I think has been a real positive surprise. I'm just making sure all those initiatives you feel like are captured in that -- in the expense guide for this year?

    也許只是最後一件。我的意思是費用指南,我只是想確保它完全體現了吉姆所說的關於東南密歇根和底特律建設的內容,你在財富管理方面所做的事情,你在納什維爾所做的事情,你已經有很多增長計劃,但你確實能夠自籌資金。並且還沒有提高費用指導,我認為這確實是一個積極的驚喜。我只是確保今年的費用指南中包含了您想要的所有這些舉措?

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • Yes, Terry. Absolutely, it's all captured in.

    是的,特里。果然,都被收錄進去了。

  • James C. Ryan - CEO & Director

    James C. Ryan - CEO & Director

  • That's the goal, right? I mean I think we have continued opportunities to invest in people and any technology needs. But at the same time, we've got to figure out ways to self-fund that. And so we want to be incredibly disciplined around with what that looks like.

    這就是目標,對嗎?我的意思是,我認為我們有持續的機會投資於人員和任何技術需求。但與此同時,我們必須找到自籌資金的方法。因此,我們希望對它的外觀保持非常嚴格的紀律。

  • Terence James McEvoy - MD & Research Analyst

    Terence James McEvoy - MD & Research Analyst

  • I totally agree.

    我完全同意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to Brody Preston with UBS.

    接下來,我們將與瑞銀一起前往布羅迪·普雷斯頓。

  • Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst

    Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst

  • I just wanted to follow up, Brendon, I think you said that there might be some I think upside on NII or maybe it was Jim that said that just dependent on what happens with the velocity of the deposit beta guide. I think the spot rate in the deck you said was 1.98%. And so I guess how has the velocity change from that 1.98% level?

    我只是想跟進,布倫登,我想你說過,我認為 NII 可能有一些上升空間,或者也許是吉姆說的,這取決於存款測試指南的速度會發生什麼。我認為你所說的套牌中的即期匯率是1.98%。所以我猜速度從 1.98% 的水平發生了怎樣的變化?

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • Yes, it slowed materially. But it's early days in the quarter, and so we don't want to declare victory and say that's a permanent change of velocity, but we have seen some positive trends on that front. And obviously, we'll continue to launch it.

    是的,速度大幅放緩。但現在還處於本季度的初期,因此我們不想宣布勝利並說這是速度的永久性變化,但我們已經看到了這方面的一些積極趨勢。顯然,我們將繼續推出它。

  • Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst

    Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst

  • Got it. And I saw the uptick in brokered deposits quarter-over-quarter, and it looked like it was fairly spread out between the front end and the back end. But I wanted to ask just like just given NIBs came in a bit better than what I expected. Are you guys planning on maybe slowing the pace of brokered? Or is there a potential for you to pay brokered deposits back? And would that kind of feed into maybe a slowing of the increase in the deposit cost trajectory?

    知道了。我看到經紀存款逐季上升,而且看起來在前端和後端之間相當分散。但我想問一下,就像剛剛給出的 NIB 比我預期的要好一些一樣。你們是否打算放慢經紀業務的步伐?或者您是否有可能償還經紀存款?這是否會導致存款成本增長放緩?

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • Yes, it's all about core deposit growth trajectory to the extent that we continue to grow core deposits at rates better than brokered. We'll continue to do that and deemphasize our use of brokered.

    是的,這一切都與核心存款增長軌蹟有關,只要我們繼續以高於經紀人的利率增長核心存款。我們將繼續這樣做,並不再強調對中介的使用。

  • Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst

    Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. And then the last one for me, just in terms of the loan pipeline, I'm sorry if I missed it. Do you have a sense for, I guess, what portion of it is kind of fixed rate versus floating rate at this point? And what kind of new fixed rate origination yields are?

    好的。好的。然後是我的最後一個,就貸款渠道而言,如果我錯過了,我很抱歉。我想,您現在是否知道其中哪一部分是固定利率與浮動利率?新的固定利率原始收益率是什麼樣的?

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • Yes, we do. It's about 75% floating to 25% fixed.

    是的,我們願意。大約有 75% 是浮動的,25% 是固定的。

  • Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst

    Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst

  • Okay. And is there a difference between what the origination yields are on the fixed rate versus the floating rate?

    好的。固定利率和浮動利率的初始收益率有區別嗎?

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • Yes. We actually put it in the slide deck. Our floating rate just in June was 7.61%, and fixed was around just above 6%. And that could move up a little bit, given our potential, obviously, rate hike coming here shortly.

    是的。我們實際上把它放在幻燈片中。 6月份我們的浮動利率是7.61%,固定利率大約在6%以上。考慮到我們顯然很快就會加息,這一數字可能會略有上升。

  • Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst

    Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst

  • What drives that delta, Brendon, between commercial fixed and commercial floating being 150 to 160 basis points kind of difference at this point in the rate cycle?

    Brendon,是什麼導致商業固定利率和商業浮動利率在利率週期的此時點之間存在 150 至 160 個基點的差異?

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • Yes, just a walk curve. You think about the average tenure of these fixed rate deals, 5 years, that 5-year swap service is about that below.

    是的,只是一條步行曲線。你想想這些固定利率交易的平均期限為 5 年,5 年期掉期服務大約如下。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to John Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets.

    接下來,我們將請來加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的約翰·阿夫斯特羅姆 (John Arfstrom)。

  • Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • A couple of follow-ups. Just on the margin, Brendon, to just put it all together, do you feel like is the margin inflecting now? I mean if the Fed is done this week, is it inflecting imminently in your mind?

    一些後續行動。就在邊緣,布倫登,把所有這些放在一起,你覺得邊緣現在是否發生了變化?我的意思是,如果美聯儲本週結束行動,你的想法是否會立即發生變化?

  • Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

    Brendon B. Falconer - CFO

  • I think -- having said, I think there's probably more downward pressure than upward opportunity in this, but it's so dependent on, again, the velocity of deposit repricing and where these terminal betas. And there's opportunities to continue to grow NII on the earning asset side because fixed rate assets repricing. Is it enough to offset it? We just don't know yet.

    我認為——話雖如此,我認為這方面的下行壓力可能大於上行機會,但這再次取決於存款重新定價的速度以及這些終端貝塔值的位置。由於固定利率資產重新定價,盈利資產方面的NII有機會繼續增長。足以抵消嗎?我們只是還不知道。

  • Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • Okay. Slide 14. This is great because it's -- you don't have exposure to the central business district. So I think the banks that don't have the exposure to tend to talk about it more openly. But you're in a lot of big cities. What are you seeing in terms of central business district office real estate? Do you feel like it's as big of a problem as we make out to be on the outside? Just curious what you're seeing.

    好的。幻燈片 14。這很棒,因為您無需接觸中央商務區。因此,我認為沒有風險敞口的銀行往往會更公開地談論這個問題。但你在很多大城市。您對中央商務區寫字樓房地產有何看法?你覺得這像我們在外面認為的那樣是一個大問題嗎?只是好奇你看到了什麼。

  • Mark G. Sander - President & COO

    Mark G. Sander - President & COO

  • I think you just answered your own question. I think it's not as big of a problem as it's made out to be. And yes, we all have our eye on it. It's not like it's robust and there aren't much in the way of new opportunities, certainly, but the risk there exists. I think it's perhaps a little overly stressed in the media. I think we have or as well circled and to the extent we need to well reserved for the couple of opportunities that where there are issues.

    我想你剛剛回答了你自己的問題。我認為這並不像人們想像的那麼大。是的,我們都在關注它。它並不是很強大,當然也沒有太多新機會,但風險確實存在。我認為媒體可能有點過度強調了。我認為我們已經或已經圈定了,並且在某種程度上我們需要為存在問題的幾個機會保留足夠的空間。

  • Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. Good. And then, Jim, one for you. Anything on regulatory that concerns you on the -- you are well under $100 billion, but what -- anything that you're hearing that you think would have an over -- outside impact on Old National?

    好的。好的。好的。然後,吉姆,給你一份。您擔心的任何監管方面的事情——您的資金遠低於 1000 億美元,但是您所聽到的任何您認為會對 Old National 產生過度——外部影響的事情?

  • James C. Ryan - CEO & Director

    James C. Ryan - CEO & Director

  • No. I think obviously we're paying really close attention to what's being set out there. And we have always been in the position of having good regulatory relationships, and this is now not the time to reduce any emphasis on the work to do, right? And so we just got to continue to improve at every single thing we do to meet regulatory expectations, exceed regulatory expectations. But as I see those things, I think that the toughest one seemed to be aimed at banks north of $100 million. And obviously, there's a lot of distance between where we're at today and that number. So I think we're in a great spot.

    不。我認為顯然我們正在密切關注那裡所發生的事情。我們一直處於擁有良好監管關係的地位,現在還不是減少對要做​​的工作的重視的時候,對嗎?因此,我們必須繼續改進我們所做的每一件事,以滿足監管期望,超越監管期望。但當我看到這些事情時,我認為最困難的似乎是針對 1 億美元以上的銀行。顯然,我們今天的處境與這個數字之間還有很大的差距。所以我認為我們處於一個很好的位置。

  • I actually think we're in the sweet spot for kind of profitability in terms of bank of our size, where we have the scale to go off and hire and invest in technology. And yet we'll maybe miss some of the toughest things that come to our industry. So I think we're in a really strong spot to be for the next few years.

    事實上,我認為,就我們規模的銀行而言,我們正處於盈利能力的最佳位置,我們有足夠的規模來招聘和投資技術。然而,我們可能會錯過我們行業遇到的一些最困難的事情。所以我認為我們在未來幾年處於非常有利的位置。

  • Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • I agree. Returns look really good.

    我同意。回報看起來確實不錯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn the call back over to Jim Ryan for closing remarks.

    目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回吉姆·瑞安 (Jim Ryan) 作結束語。

  • James C. Ryan - CEO & Director

    James C. Ryan - CEO & Director

  • Well, as always, we appreciate your participation. Thanks for the one or two questions that I actually got that weren't directed toward Brendon and Mark. Lynell and John and Brendon and the whole team are here to answer any follow-up questions. So once again, thank you for all your participation and support.

    一如既往,我們感謝您的參與。感謝我實際上收到的一兩個問題,這些問題並不是針對布倫登和馬克的。林內爾、約翰和布倫登以及整個團隊都在這裡回答任何後續問題。再次感謝大家的參與和支持。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes Old National's call. Once again, a replay along with the presentation slides will be available for 12 months on the Investor Relations page of Old National's website, oldnational.com. A replay of the call will also be available by dialing (800) 770-2030 access code 5258325. This replay will be available through August 8. If anyone has any additional questions, please contact Lynell Walton at (812) 464-1366. Thank you for your participation in today's call.

    Old National 的通話到此結束。 Old National 網站 oldnational.com 的投資者關係頁面將再次提供為期 12 個月的重播和演示幻燈片。您還可以撥打 (800) 770-2030 接入碼 5258325 重播電話會議重播。該重播將持續到 8 月 8 日。如果任何人有任何其他問題,請致電 (812) 464-1366 聯繫 Lynell Walton。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。