OneMain Holdings Inc (OMF) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the OneMain Financial Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast.

歡迎參加 OneMain Financial 2024 年第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。

Hosting the call today from OneMain is Peter Poillon, Head of Investor Relations.

今天主持 OneMain 電話會議的是投資者關係主管 Peter Poillon。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的通話正在錄音。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Peter Poillon.

現在我很高興將發言權交給 Peter Poillon。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝您，接線生。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

大家早安，感謝大家的收看。

Let me begin by directing you to page 2 of the fourth quarter 2024 investor presentation, which contains important disclosures concerning forward-looking statements and the use of non-GAAP measures.

首先，請您參閱 2024 年第四季投資者報告的第 2 頁，其中包含有關前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 指標使用的重要揭露。

The presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of the OneMain website.

此簡報可以在 OneMain 網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Our discussion today will contain certain forward-looking statements reflecting management's current beliefs about the company's future financial performance and business prospects, and these forward-looking statements are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties and speak only as of today.

我們今天的討論將包含某些前瞻性陳述，反映管理層當前對公司未來財務業績和業務前景的看法，這些前瞻性陳述受固有風險和不確定性的影響，並且僅代表今天的觀點。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are set forth in our earnings press release.

可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異的因素已在我們的收益新聞稿中列出。

We caution you not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

我們提醒您不要過度依賴前瞻性陳述。

If you may be listening to this via replay at some point after today, we remind you that the remarks made herein are as of today, January 31, and have not been updated subsequent to this call.

如果您今天之後的某個時間點透過重播收聽此內容，我們提醒您，此處的評論截至今天（1 月 31 日）為止，並且在本次通話之後尚未更新。

Our call this morning will include formal remarks from Doug Shulman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jenny Osterhout, our Chief Financial Officer.

我們今天上午的電話會議將包括我們董事長兼執行長 Doug Shulman 的正式演講；以及我們的財務長珍妮·奧斯特豪特（Jenny Osterhout）。

After the conclusion of our formal remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session.

在我們的正式發言結束後，我們將進行問答環節。

I'd like to now turn the call over to Doug.

現在我想將電話轉給 Doug。

Thanks, Pete, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，皮特，大家早安。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

In 2024, we made significant progress in our personal loan business as well as our new products, credit card and auto lending, setting us up to drive growth in both receivables and capital generation.

2024 年，我們的個人貸款業務以及新產品信用卡和汽車貸款取得了重大進展，為我們推動應收帳款和資本產生的成長奠定了基礎。

During the year, we continued to focus on helping our customers improve their financial well-being and finding opportunities to lend even as we keep a very tight credit box.

這一年，我們繼續致力於幫助我們的客戶改善財務狀況，並在保持非常嚴格的信貸限制的同時尋找貸款機會。

We also completed our acquisition of Foursight, bringing new capabilities to our auto lending business, continued the build-out of our BrightWay credit cards, proactively managed expenses and further refined our best-in-class data science and analytics.

我們也完成了對 Foursight 的收購，為我們的汽車貸款業務帶來了新的能力，繼續擴展我們的 BrightWay 信用卡，積極管理費用，並進一步完善我們一流的數據科學和分析能力。

The result was steady improvement in credit, solid growth in originations and a customer base that grew 15% to 3.4 million customers.

結果是信貸穩定改善，貸款發放量穩定成長，客戶群成長 15%，達到 340 萬客戶。

Here are some highlights from the year.

以下是今年的一些亮點。

In 2024, we generated $685 million of capital despite incurring peak loan losses at the beginning of the year, demonstrating the incredibly strong and resilient business model of OneMain.

2024 年，儘管年初貸款損失達到峰值，我們仍創造了 6.85 億美元的資本，證明了 OneMain 商業模式極其強大且具有韌性。

We expect that 2024 represented a cyclical low in earnings and will be followed by an upward trajectory in earnings and capital generation in 2025 and beyond.

我們預計，2024 年將出現獲利的周期性低點，隨後 2025 年及以後獲利和資本創造將呈現上升趨勢。

I'm very pleased that we met or exceeded all of the 2024 expectations that we laid out for investors at the beginning of the year.

我很高興我們達到或超越了今年年初為投資者制定的所有 2024 年預期。

This was the result of our personalized approach that allows us to stay very close to our customers, active credit management, disciplined focus on expenses and strategic investment in the business.

這是我們個人化方法的結果，這種方法使我們能夠密切關注客戶、進行積極的信用管理、嚴格關注費用並對業務進行策略性投資。

For the full year, our receivables grew 11%, and to $24.7 billion.

全年我們的應收帳款成長 11%，達到 247 億美元。

Some of the factors contributing to this were the growth of the auto business, including our acquisition, a positive competitive environment, focused initiatives to help improve personal loan originations without changing our conservative credit posture and growth in the BrightWay credit cards.

促成這一結果的一些因素包括汽車業務的成長，包括我們的收購、積極的競爭環境、有助於改善個人貸款發放且不改變我們保守的信貸立場和 BrightWay 信用卡成長的重點舉措。

In our personal loan business, we continued to invest in data science, new data sources and credit models to even further enhance our best-in-class underwriting capability.

在我們的個人貸款業務中，我們繼續投資資料科學、新資料來源和信用模型，以進一步增強我們一流的承保能力。

We invested in our technology and branch network, refining the way we interact with customers to increase efficiency and enhance customer experience.

我們投資了技術和分支機構網絡，改善了與客戶互動的方式，以提高效率並增強客戶體驗。

And we launched new products and channels including credit card to loan, cross marketing and our mobile app, loan payments linked to paychecks and a new debt consolidation offering.

我們推出了新的產品和管道，包括信用卡貸款、交叉行銷和行動應用程式、與薪水掛鉤的貸款支付和新的債務合併服務。

We fully integrated our auto acquisition, giving us new capabilities in auto lending.

我們全面整合了汽車收購業務，並賦予了我們汽車貸款的新能力。

We enter 2025 well positioned to compete through both franchise and independent dealerships.

進入 2025 年，我們將透過特許經營和獨立經銷商兩種方式做好競爭準備。

We grew our credit card portfolio to about 780,000 accounts.

我們的信用卡帳戶數量已增加至約 78 萬個。

While being cautious in our growth, we've been highly focused on continuously improving the user experience to make sure our customers have access to a differentiated, highly digital card product, while we also continue to drive operating efficiencies.

在謹慎發展的同時，我們一直高度注重不斷改善用戶體驗，以確保我們的客戶能夠獲得差異化、高度數位化的卡產品，同時我們也持續提高營運效率。

In 2024, we continue to demonstrate our incredibly strong balance sheet and funding program.

2024年，我們繼續展示我們極其強勁的資產負債表和融資計劃。

We raised $3.9 billion in funding, including $2.4 billion in high-yield bond issuances and $1.1 billion in seven-year secure funding.

我們籌集了 39 億美元的資金，其中包括 24 億美元的高收益債券發行和 11 億美元的七年期擔保融資。

We also expanded our whole loan sale program and renewed multiple bank lines in our corporate revolver.

我們也擴大了整個貸款銷售計劃，並更新了公司循環信貸中的多條銀行信貸額度。

Our diversified funding program ensures we have significant excess liquidity and continues to be a strategic differentiator of OneMain.

我們多元化的融資計劃確保我們擁有大量的過剩流動性，並繼續成為 OneMain 的策略差異化因素。

We also focused on helping our customers manage their financial wellness and on supporting the communities where we live and work.

我們也致力於幫助客戶管理他們的財務健康並支持我們生活和工作的社區。

Trim by OneMain, our financial wellness platform that helps customers save money on household bills and manage everyday expenses continued to help our customers improve their financial well-being.

Trim by OneMain 是我們財務健康平台，可協助客戶節省家庭開支和管理日常開支，並持續幫助我們的客戶改善財務狀況。

Trim is free to OneMain customers and has saved them millions of dollars through bill negotiations and subscription cancellations.

Trim 對於 OneMain 客戶是免費的，並且透過帳單協商和取消訂閱為他們節省了數百萬美元。

Credit Worthy by OneMain, our financial education program for high school students, reached more than 400,000 students in more than 4,000 high schools across the country with many of our team members volunteering and engaging with students throughout the year.

Credit Worthy by OneMain 是我們針對高中生推出的金融教育項目，該項目惠及全國 4,000 多所高中的 400,000 多名學生，我們團隊的許多成員全年都自願參與並與學生互動。

I mentioned Trim and Credit Worthy because they illustrate the kind of company that we are.

我提到 Trim 和 Credit Worthy 是因為它們體現了我們是什麼樣的公司。

Recently, OneMain was recognized both in the Newsweek's excellence Index and in Time magazine, America's best midsized companies list for various aspects of business excellence, including growth in innovation employee satisfaction and ethical practices.

最近，OneMain 因在業務卓越性的各個方面（包括創新、員工滿意度和道德實踐的增長）而獲得《新聞周刊》卓越指數和《時代》雜誌美國最佳中型公司榜單。

I only named a few but I'm proud of all of our accomplishments in 2024 and believe the future has never been brighter for OneMain.

我只列舉了幾個，但我為我們在 2024 年取得的所有成就感到自豪，並相信 OneMain 的未來從未如此光明。

Let me now turn to the results of the fourth quarter.

現在我來談談第四季的結果。

Capital generation was $183 million, and C&I adjusted earnings were $1.16 per share.

資本創造額為 1.83 億美元，商業與工業 (C&I) 調整後每股盈餘為 1.16 美元。

Our receivables grew 11% year-over-year and total revenue grew 9%.

我們的應收帳款年增11％，總收入增長9％。

Despite our continued conservative underwriting posture for the second consecutive quarter, originations grew double digits year-over-year.

儘管我們連續第二季持續保持保守的承保態度，但保險發起量仍比去年同期成長了兩位數。

The strong origination growth is a result of the constructive competitive environment throughout most of 2024 and our expanded use of granular data analytics and product innovation to opportunistically drive growth.

強勁的起源成長是 2024 年大部分時間的建設性競爭環境的結果，以及我們擴大使用細粒度數據分析和產品創新來抓住機會推動成長的結果。

Turning to credit.

轉向信用。

The positive trends that we saw in the third quarter have continued into year-end.

我們在第三季看到的正面趨勢一直延續到年底。

Our 30 to 89 delinquency was 3.06%, which is down 22 basis points year-over-year compared to up 21 basis points a year ago.

我們的 30 至 89 年拖欠率為 3.06%，年減 22 個基點，而一年前則上升了 21 個基點。

We're also seeing better-than-normal seasonal trends in the quarter-over-quarter movements.

我們也看到季度環比變化的季節性趨勢好於正常水平。

Delinquency was up only 5 basis points from last quarter.

拖欠率僅比上一季上升了 5 個基點。

Last year, it was up 30 basis points in the same quarter and pre-pandemic, it was up 13 basis points on average.

去年同期，該比率上漲了 30 個基點，疫情前，該比率平均上漲了 13 個基點。

So we like the trends that we are seeing.

所以我們喜歡我們所看到的趨勢。

Net charge-offs were 7.9% in the quarter, up 36 basis points from last quarter, which is much better than the trends we have seen in the last two years and also better than normal seasonal trends we saw pre-pandemic.

本季淨沖銷率為 7.9%，較上一季上升 36 個基點，比過去兩年的趨勢要好得多，也比疫情前的正常季節性趨勢要好。

And consumer loan net charge-offs were 7.6%, which is down 7 basis points year-over-year.

消費貸款淨沖銷率為 7.6%，較去年同期下降 7 個基點。

These positive credit trends in both delinquencies and charge-offs reinforce our view the losses in our consumer loan portfolio peaked in the first half of 2024.

拖欠和核銷方面的正向信貸趨勢強化了我們的觀點，即我們的消費貸款組合的損失在 2024 年上半年達到頂峰。

Moving to our newer products.

轉向我們較新的產品。

OneMain auto receivables increased $105 million in the quarter to $2.4 billion at year-end.

OneMain 汽車應收帳款本季增加了 1.05 億美元，截至年底達到 24 億美元。

The credit performance in auto remains in line with our expectations and better than comparable industry performance.

汽車產業的信貸表現符合我們的預期，且優於同類產業的表現。

In our credit card business, we added $93 million in receivables during the quarter and ended the year with receivables totaling $643 million.

在我們的信用卡業務中，我們在本季增加了 9,300 萬美元的應收帳款，年底應收帳款總額達到 6.43 億美元。

We continue to focus on building the foundations of a great card business, which we will grow when the time is right.

我們將繼續致力於建立偉大的信用卡業務的基礎，並在時機成熟時推動其發展。

Let me touch on capital allocation, where our priorities are unchanged.

讓我談談資本配置，我們的優先事項沒有改變。

First and foremost, we invest in the business to position us for ongoing success.

首先，我們投資業務是為了讓我們獲得持續的成功。

In 2025, we will continue to invest in growth, data science, technology and digital innovation, enhanced loan products as well as our auto and credit card businesses.

2025 年，我們將繼續投資於成長、數據科學、技術和數位創新、增強貸款產品以及汽車和信用卡業務。

We're also committed to our regular dividend, which at $4.16 per share annually, yields about 7% at today's share price.

我們也致力於支付定期股息，每年每股 4.16 美元，以今天的股價計算，收益率約為 7%。

During the year, we repurchased about 755,000 shares for approximately $35 million.

今年，我們以約 3500 萬美元回購了約 755,000 股。

We will pace our future share repurchases based on a number of factors, including our excess capital, capital needed for growth, economic conditions and market dynamics.

我們將根據多種因素來確定未來的股票回購速度，包括我們的過剩資本、成長所需的資本、經濟狀況和市場動態。

As we turn to 2025, we feel great about all of the key drivers of our business.

展望 2025 年，我們對業務的所有關鍵驅動因素都感到十分滿意。

We continue to serve more customers and grow receivables as we enhance our personal loan business and add new products.

隨著我們加強個人貸款業務並增加新產品，我們將繼續服務更多客戶並增加應收帳款。

We have actively managed credit through a tricky economic environment the past several years and expect to see continued improvements into 2025.

過去幾年，我們在艱難的經濟環境中積極管理信貸，預計到 2025 年將繼續改善。

Our balance sheet is a strong and diversified as it has ever been, and we continue to invest in the business while being disciplined in expense management.

我們的資產負債表一如既往地強勁而多樣化，我們繼續對業務進行投資，同時嚴格進行費用管理。

Barring any shifts in the macroeconomic environment, we expect to see increased earnings and capital generation in 2025 and beyond.

除非宏觀經濟環境發生任何變化，否則我們預計 2025 年及以後收益和資本創造將會增加。

With that, let me turn the call over to Jenny.

說完這些，讓我把電話轉給珍妮 (Jenny)。

Thanks, Doug, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，道格，大家早安。

Let me begin by focusing on the quarter, then briefly recap our year and conclude with what we expect for 2025.

首先，我先重點介紹本季的情況，然後簡要回顧今年的情況，最後談談我們對 2025 年的期望。

Our fourth quarter was highlighted by the continuation of improved credit trends, growth in high-quality originations and solid revenue growth.

我們第四季的亮點是信貸趨勢持續改善、高品質貸款發放成長和收入穩健成長。

We also completed the year with continued strong execution in the funding markets.

我們在融資市場中持續保持強勁表現，為這一年畫下了句點。

Fourth quarter GAAP net income was $126 million or $1.05 per diluted share, down from $1.38 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2023.

第四季 GAAP 淨收入為 1.26 億美元，即每股攤薄收入 1.05 美元，低於 2023 年第四季的每股攤薄收入 1.38 美元。

C&I adjusted net income was $1.16 per diluted share, down from $1.39 in the fourth quarter of 2023.

C&I 調整後淨收入為每股攤薄 1.16 美元，低於 2023 年第四季的 1.39 美元。

Capital generation, the metric against which we manage and measure our business totaled $183 million, which compares to $191 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily reflecting the impact of the current macroeconomic environment on our net charge-offs, partially offset by higher interest income from portfolio growth.

資本生成是我們管理和衡量業務的指標，總計 1.83 億美元，而 2023 年第四季為 1.91 億美元，主要反映了當前宏觀經濟環境對我們淨沖銷的影響，部分被更高的利息所抵消投資組合成長帶來的收入。

Managed receivables finished the year at $24.7 billion, up $2.5 billion or 11% from a year ago.

全年管理應收帳款達 247 億美元，比去年同期增加 25 億美元，增幅為 11%。

Fourth quarter originations were $3.5 billion, led by strong organic growth of 11% year-over-year.

第四季的貸款發放額為 35 億美元，其中有機成長強勁，較去年同期成長 11%。

The acquisition of Foursight in April contributed another 5% to the total year-over-year increase of 16%.

4 月收購 Foursight 又為年成長 16% 的總營收貢獻了 5%。

The strong growth is a result of the constructive competitive environment, along with our focused efforts to drive originations within our continued conservative underwriting posture.

強勁的成長得益於良好的競爭環境，以及我們在持續保守的核保立場下集中努力推動業務發起。

The APR on our consumer loan originations was 27.0% this quarter, up 16 basis points from the third quarter, continuing the trend we have seen for several quarters.

本季我們消費貸款發放的年利率為 27.0%，較第三季上升了 16 個基點，延續了我們幾季以來的趨勢。

These origination levels will support yield as the book matures and older originations roll off.

隨著帳簿的成熟和舊發起的結束，這些發起水準將支持收益率。

Fourth quarter consumer loan yield was 22.2% up 14 basis points compared to the prior quarter, benefiting from pricing actions we've taken, partially offset by the continued growth in our lower loss, lower yield OneMain auto business.

第四季消費貸款收益率為22.2%，較上一季上升14個基點，受惠於我們採取的定價行動，但被我們虧損較少、收益較低的OneMain汽車業務的持續成長部分抵銷。

As we look ahead to 2025, we expect flat to modest improvement in consumer loan yields from these levels, largely dependent on our product mix throughout the year.

展望 2025 年，我們預期消費貸款收益率將從這些水準持平或小幅改善，這在很大程度上取決於我們全年的產品組合。

Total revenue was $1.5 billion, up 9% compared to fourth quarter of 2023.

總營收為 15 億美元，比 2023 年第四季成長 9%。

Interest income of $1.3 billion grew 11% year-over-year, driven by receivables growth.

受應收帳款成長的推動，利息收入年增 11% 至 13 億美元。

Other revenue of $177 million was down 4% from prior year.

其他收入為 1.77 億美元，較上年下降 4%。

Interest expense for the quarter was $310 million, up $39 million versus prior year, driven by an increase in average debt to support our receivables growth and modestly higher cost of funds compared to a year ago.

本季利息支出為 3.1 億美元，比上年增加 3,900 萬美元，主要是由於平均債務增加以支持應收帳款成長，且資金成本較去年同期略有上升。

Interest expense as a percent of average net receivables in the quarter was 5.3%.

本季利息支出占平均淨應收帳款的百分比為 5.3%。

As we look forward, we expect this to increase slightly.

展望未來，我們預計這一數字將略有增加。

If there is volatility in interest rates in 2025, our balance sheet strategy to issue largely fixed rate longer-dated securities minimizes the impact.

如果 2025 年出現利率波動，我們的資產負債表策略是發行主要固定利率的較長期證券，以最大限度地減少影響。

Fourth quarter provision expense was $523 million, comprising net charge-offs of $464 million and a $59 million increase to our allowance driven by the increase in receivables during the quarter.

第四季的撥備支出為 5.23 億美元，其中包括 4.64 億美元的淨沖銷和 5,900 萬美元的撥備增加額，這是由於本季應收帳款增加所致。

I'll discuss losses in more detail momentarily.

我稍後將更詳細地討論損失。

Policyholder benefits and claims expense for the quarter was $49 million, flat to prior year, and we expect quarterly PBMC expense in the low $50 million range in 2025.

本季的保單持有人福利和索賠費用為 4,900 萬美元，與去年持平，我們預計 2025 年季度 PBMC 費用將在 5,000 萬美元左右。

Let's turn to slide 9 and look at consumer loan delinquency trends.

讓我們翻到第 9 張投影片，看看消費者貸款拖欠趨勢。

Our 30- to 89-day delinquency at December 31, excluding our Foursight acquisition was 3.06% down 22 basis points year-over-year, which is notably better than the trend we saw a year ago and the trends we saw in the pre-pandemic period, as shown on slide 10. 30-plus delinquencies were down more than 50 basis points compared to a year ago as 90-plus delinquencies also notably improved.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的 30 至 89 天拖欠率（不包括 Foursight 收購）為 3.06%，同比下降 22 個基點，明顯好於一年前的趨勢和前期的趨勢。所示。

This quarter marks the first year-over-year improvement on delinquency in recent years.

本季是近年來拖欠率首次較去年同期改善。

We are actively managing credit and see these trends as encouraging signs for continued positive momentum in lower loss levels and higher earnings in 2025 and beyond.

我們正在積極管理信貸，並將這些趨勢視為令人鼓舞的跡象，預示著 2025 年及以後將繼續保持較低的損失水平和較高的收益的積極勢頭。

On slide 10, you can also see our front book vintages now comprise 84% of total receivables.

在投影片 10 上，您也可以看到我們的前期帳簿年份現在佔應收帳款總額的 84%。

The performance of the front book remains in line with expectations and is the primary driver of the improved credit trends in our portfolio.

前帳簿的表現符合預期，並且是我們投資組合中信貸趨勢改善的主要驅動力。

And while the back book makes up just 16% of the total portfolio, it still represents about one-third of our 30-plus delinquency.

儘管後期帳簿僅佔總投資組合的 16%，但仍占我們 30 多筆拖欠款項的三分之一。

As the back book continues transitioning and we see the front book grow as a percentage of our portfolio, we expect our delinquency and loss metrics to continue to improve.

隨著後端帳簿的持續轉變以及前端帳簿在我們投資組合中的佔比不斷增長，我們預計我們的拖欠率和損失指標將繼續改善。

And it is worth noting that there remains some headwind in our credit metrics from our decisions to tighten credit, slowing originations, which has extended the average age of our portfolio.

值得注意的是，由於我們決定收緊信貸、放緩信貸發放速度，我們的信貸指標仍然存在一些阻力，這延長了我們投資組合的平均年限。

Let's now turn to charge-offs and reserves as shown on slide 11.

現在讓我們來看看投影片 11 中所示的沖銷和儲備。

C&I net charge-offs, which includes credit cards for 7.9% of average net receivables in the fourth quarter, up 36 basis points from the third quarter, which is well below the approximate 100 basis point increases we've seen in the last two years and below the approximate 50 basis point increases we saw on average in pre-pandemic years.

第四季度，包括信用卡在內的商業和工業淨沖銷佔平均淨應收帳款的 7.9%，較第三季上升 36 個基點，遠低於過去兩年約 100 個基點的增幅且低於疫情前幾年平均約50 個基點的增幅。

We are also seeing the trends improve in our year-over-year comparisons.

與去年同期相比，我們也看到趨勢有所改善。

These are all encouraging signs of improved loss performance in the quarters ahead.

這些都是未來幾季虧損表現改善的令人鼓舞的跡象。

Also, it is helpful to point out that while still relatively small, the credit card portfolio is growing modestly, and we are seeing an impact in our C&I net charge-offs from the higher loss card business, which carries higher overall revenue and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns.

此外，值得指出的是，儘管信用卡業務規模仍然相對較小，但增長速度卻很慢，而且我們看到，損失較大的信用卡業務對我們的C&I 淨沖銷產生了影響，該業務帶來了更高的整體收入，並產生了頗具吸引力的風險調整後的回報。

Consumer loan net charge-offs, which exclude credit card were 7.6% in the quarter, down 7 basis points year-over-year.

本季不包括信用卡的消費貸款淨沖銷率為 7.6%，較去年同期下降 7 個基點。

This clearly demonstrates the improvement we have been seeing in early delinquencies and the go-forward trajectory of losses as we move away from peak losses in the first half of 2024.

這清楚地表明了我們在早期拖欠方面看到的改善以及隨著我們遠離 2024 年上半年的損失高峰而出現的損失未來軌跡。

Recoveries remained steady and strong in the quarter at $77 million or 1.3% of receivables, well above our pre-pandemic levels.

本季的回收額保持穩定和強勁，達到 7,700 萬美元，佔應收帳款的 1.3%，遠高於疫情前的水平。

Loan loss reserves ended the quarter at $2.7 billion.

本季末貸款損失準備金為 27 億美元。

Our reserves increased by $59 million in the quarter, driven by portfolio growth in consumer loans and credit card receivables, while our reserve coverage remained steady at 11.5%.

受消費貸款和信用卡應收帳款組合成長的推動，本季我們的儲備金增加了 5,900 萬美元，而我們的儲備金覆蓋率保持穩定在 11.5%。

Once again, it's worth mentioning here that our reserves include the impact of our credit card portfolio, which, as I mentioned, is higher loss and therefore, carries a higher loss reserve.

再次值得一提的是，我們的準備金包括了信用卡組合的影響，正如我所提到的，信用卡組合的損失更高，因此損失準備金也更高。

And while we are seeing positive trends in our credit metrics, we haven't made changes in the macroeconomic assumptions in our reserve calculation, given the continued uncertainty around inflation and unemployment.

雖然我們的信用指標呈現出正面趨勢，但考慮到通膨和失業率的持續不確定性，我們並未對儲備計算中的宏觀經濟假設做出改變。

So I expect in the near term, to see our reserve coverage remain around current levels.

因此我預計短期內我們的儲備覆蓋率將維持在目前水準左右。

We will continue to assess reserve levels and expect that when the uncertainty around the macro subside and as we see sustained improvement in the credit performance of our portfolio, our coverage level will come down in time.

我們將繼續評估儲備水平，並預期當宏觀不確定性消退時，隨著我們看到投資組合信用表現的持續改善，我們的覆蓋水平將及時下降。

Now let's turn to slide 12.

現在我們翻到第 12 張投影片。

Operating expenses were $422 million, up 10% compared to a year ago driven by the Foursight acquisition and investment in our business.

營業費用為 4.22 億美元，比去年同期成長 10%，這主要得益於 Foursight 的收購和對我們業務的投資。

The full year 2024 OpEx ratio of 6.6% was abnormally low, resulting from the savings generated by the expense actions we took in the first quarter.

2024 年全年營運支出率為 6.6%，異常低，這是由於我們在第一季採取的費用行動所產生的節省。

As we had said, we expected to reinvest a portion of the savings in the business to drive growth and efficiencies in the future, and you can see that reinvestment in the latter part of the year.

正如我們所說，我們預計把一部分儲蓄重新投資於業務，以推動未來的成長和效率，你可以在今年下半年看到這筆再投資。

Stepping back, our business model continues to have inherent operating leverage, and you can see that as our OpEx ratio has steadily improved since 2019.

回顧一下，我們的商業模式繼續具有固有的經營槓桿，你可以看到，自 2019 年以來，我們的營運支出比率穩步提高。

Now let's turn to funding and our balance sheet on slide 13.

現在讓我們討論第 13 頁的資金和資產負債表。

During the quarter, we issued a $900 million 4.5-year unsecured bond at 6.625%.

本季度，我們發行了 9 億美元、期限為 4.5 年、利率為 6.625% 的無擔保債券。

The offering attracted a strong set of both new and returning investors and resulted in the narrower spreads we've ever seen on an unsecured issuance.

此次發行吸引了大批新舊投資者，並帶來了無擔保發行中最小的利差。

Since June of 2023, we've issued six unsecured bonds totaling $4 billion and with each issuance, we have seen gradual improvements in pricing and healthy demand for our bonds.

自 2023 年 6 月以來，我們已發行了六筆無擔保債券，總額為 40 億美元，隨著每次發行，我們都看到債券的定價逐漸改善且需求旺盛。

Also, you may have seen, we've already begun our funding for 2025 earlier this month with a five-year revolving $900 million auto ABS issuance with an average cost of funds just under 5.5%.

此外，您可能已經看到，我們已於本月初開始為 2025 年籌集資金，發行了為期五年的循環期 9 億美元汽車 ABS，平均資金成本略低於 5.5%。

Once again, demand for our secured paper was extremely strong.

再次，市場對我們擔保票據的需求十分強勁。

We are feeling very good about where we stand with our best-in-class funding strategy and our ability to execute.

我們對自己一流的融資策略和執行能力感到非常滿意。

We're also pleased to have expanded our forward flow coal loan sale program to $900 million annually through the end of 2025.

我們也很高興到 2025 年底，我們的遠期煤炭貸款銷售計畫將擴大到每年 9 億美元。

As we've said before, we regularly evaluate the benefits of committed flow arrangements for their near- and long-term effects to our business and are pleased with the economics of the program we have in place.

正如我們之前所說，我們會定期評估承諾流量安排對我們業務的近期和長期影響，並對現有計劃的經濟效益感到滿意。

We see these types of arrangements as useful tools to further diversify our funding options.

我們認為這些類型的安排是進一步多樣化我們的融資選擇的有用工具。

During the quarter, we also optimized our bank lines to $7.4 billion.

本季度，我們也將銀行額度優化至 74 億美元。

And as part of that, we converted a $375 million secured bank line to private placement.

作為其中的一部分，我們將 3.75 億美元的擔保銀行信用額度轉換為私募。

So we feel really good about our liquidity position and our runway.

因此，我們對我們的流動性狀況和跑道感到非常滿意。

Net leverage at the end of the fourth quarter was 5.6x, flat to prior quarter.

第四季末淨槓桿率為5.6倍，與上一季持平。

We've adjusted the calculation to remove quarterly volatility from the impact of changes in AOCI in our adjusted capital, aligning with common market practices and how the ratings agencies measure tangible equity.

我們已經調整了計算方法，以消除季度波動受到的調整後資本中 AOCI 變化的影響，從而符合常見市場慣例和評級機構衡量有形權益的方式。

Before I discuss 2025 strategic initiatives, let me briefly recap our full year 2024 performance against the expectations we laid out at the beginning of the year.

在討論 2025 年策略舉措之前，我先簡單回顧一下我們 2024 年全年的表現與年初制定的預期。

First, we expected to grow our managed receivables to approximately $24 billion, inclusive of our auto finance acquisition, and we ended the year at $24.7 billion, benefiting from the strong competitive environment and the growth initiatives we successfully implemented starting in June of last year.

首先，我們預計我們的管理應收帳款將成長到約240 億美元，其中包括我們的汽車金融收購，而今年年底我們的管理應收帳款達到了247 億美元，這得益於強勁的競爭環境和我們從去年6 月開始成功實施的成長計畫。

We expected total revenue growth in the range of 6% to 8%, and we came in at the top end of our range at 7.6%.

我們預計總收入成長率在 6% 至 8% 之間，而我們的實際成長率達到了 7.6% 的最高水準。

We expected interest expense as a percentage of average net receivables to come in at approximately 5.2%, and we came in at 5.26%, even as we held more excess cash on our balance sheet through much of the year, and took the opportunity to raise incremental debt to manage near-term maturities and support our liquidity runway.

我們預計利息支出占平均淨應收帳款的百分比約為 5.2%，而我們的實際百分比為 5.26%，儘管我們在今年大部分時間資產負債表上持有更多過剩現金，並藉此機會籌集增量債務來管理近期到期債務並支持我們的流動性跑道。

We expected C&I net charge-offs in the range of 7.7% to 8.3% while calling peak losses in the first half of 2024.

我們預計 C&I 淨沖銷額將在 7.7% 至 8.3% 之間，同時預計損失將在 2024 年上半年達到高峰。

We came in within the range at 8.1% for the year, with peak losses occurring in the first quarter of 2024.

我們全年的損失處於 8.1% 的範圍內，峰值損失出現在 2024 年第一季。

Finally, we expected our operating expense ratio to come down to approximately 6.7% from 7.0% in 2023.

最後，我們預計我們的營業費用率將從 2023 年的 7.0% 降至約 6.7%。

We came in at 6.6% for the full year.

全年成長率為 6.6%。

Even in a challenging year where we saw peak losses resulting from a negative credit cycle, we generated capital of $685 million and a return on receivables of 3.1%, demonstrating the strength of our business model.

即使在信用週期負面、損失達到高峰的艱難一年，我們仍然創造了 6.85 億美元的資本，應收帳款回報率達到 3.1%，證明了我們商業模式的實力。

As credit improves and we continue to grow, we expect to see capital generation growth and improved returns, positioning the business for continued success in the years ahead.

隨著信貸改善和我們的持續成長，我們預計資本創造將成長，回報率將提高，為未來幾年的持續成功奠定基礎。

Now let's discuss our expectations for certain key metrics in 2025.

現在讓我們來討論一下對 2025 年某些關鍵指標的期望。

Turning to slide 15.

翻到第 15 張投影片。

We expect to continue growing managed receivables and revenues even as we remain cautious on the economy and maintain a tight credit posture.

即使我們對經濟保持謹慎並維持緊縮的信貸態勢，我們仍預期管理的應收帳款和收入將持續成長。

And as always, we are fully prepared to accelerate growth if and when conditions improve.

和往常一樣，如果情況改善，我們已做好充分準備來加速成長。

We expect managed receivables to grow approximately 5% to 8%, reflecting solid loan originations.

我們預計管理應收帳款將成長約 5% 至 8%，反映出穩健的貸款發放。

We expect revenue growth in the range of 6% to 8% following our expected receivables growth I just mentioned, along with modest improvement in consumer loan yield.

我們預期營收成長率將在 6% 至 8% 之間，這與我剛才提到的預期應收帳款成長一致，同時消費貸款收益率也將略有改善。

In terms of our guide for credit, we expect full year C&I net charge-offs in the range of 7.5% to 8.0% as we reap the benefits of the actions we took to actively manage credit over the past couple of years.

就我們的信貸指南而言，我們預計全年 C&I 淨沖銷額將在 7.5% 至 8.0% 之間，因為我們將從過去幾年積極管理信貸所採取的行動中獲益。

We expect to see typical seasonal patterns once again in our quarterly losses with first half 2025 net charge-offs above the full year range and second half below.

我們預計季度虧損將再次出現典型的季節性模式，2025 年上半年的淨沖銷額將高於全年範圍，而下半年則低於全年範圍。

Our guide assumes no change in the macroeconomic environment, including inflation.

我們的指南假設宏觀經濟環境（包括通貨膨脹）不會改變。

I also think it's helpful to point out that you can see in our fourth quarter results that consumer loan net charge-offs are improving and running about 25 basis points below C&I net charge-offs as we mature the card business, and as consumer loans continue to improve, we expect that relationship will widen to approximately 40 basis points in 2025.

我還認為有必要指出的是，在我們的第四季度業績中，您可以看到，隨著信用卡業務的成熟以及消費貸款的持續增長，消費貸款淨沖銷額正在改善，比C&I 淨沖銷額低約25 個基點。

On operating expenses, there will be some minor variability throughout the year with a full year OpEx ratio of approximately 6.6%, in line with last year's OpEx ratio and notably better than our OpEx ratio in 2023.

在營運費用方面，全年將會有一些小的變化，全年營運支出比率約為 6.6%，與去年的營運支出比率一致，明顯優於我們 2023 年的營運支出比率。

In summary, as we look ahead to 2025 and beyond, we see strong momentum in our business and believe we're well positioned to excel in any economic environment.

總而言之，展望 2025 年及以後，我們看到我們的業務勢頭強勁，並相信我們有能力在任何經濟環境中脫穎而出。

To that end, we remain confident in our ability to achieve the medium-term capital generation and growth targets that we discussed during our 2023 Investor Day.

為此，我們對實現 2023 年投資者日期間討論的中期資本創造和成長目標的能力充滿信心。

And with that, let me turn the call back over to Doug.

說完這些，讓我把電話轉回給 Doug。

Thanks, Jenny.

謝謝，珍妮。

I'm pleased with the results for the quarter and for the full year, and especially pleased with the progress we continue to make to enhance our competitive position.

我對本季和全年的業績感到滿意，尤其對我們在增強競爭地位方面不斷取得的進展感到高興。

Just five years ago, we are a monoline provider of personal loans offered through our branch network.

就在五年前，我們還是一家透過分公司網路提供個人貸款的單一業務供應商。

Today, we offer personal loans through multiple channels, including our branches and have added credit cards for customers' everyday transactions and auto loans at the point of purchase.

今天，我們透過多種管道提供個人貸款，包括我們的分支機構，並增加了用於客戶日常交易的信用卡和購買時汽車貸款。

This has expanded our addressable market 10x.

這使我們的潛在市場擴大了10倍。

And as we expand our business, we are bringing to bear our deep understanding of the nonprime consumer and our over 100-year history of best-in-class credit and balance sheet management.

隨著我們業務的擴展，我們將發揮對非優質消費者的深刻理解以及超過 100 年的一流信用和資產負債表管理歷史。

We have a lot of momentum going into 2025 and are excited to bring even more value to an ever-growing set of customers.

我們邁向 2025 年的勢頭十分強勁，並且很高興為不斷增長的客戶群帶來更多價值。

I'll close by offering my thanks to all of the OneMain team members for their dedication and hard work throughout 2024 and their continued commitment to our customers every day.

最後，我要感謝 OneMain 團隊的所有成員在 2024 年的奉獻和辛勤工作以及他們每天對客戶的持續承諾。

With that, let me open it up to questions.

現在，請允許我開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Terry Ma, Barclays.

(操作員指示) 巴克萊銀行的 Terry Ma。

Maybe just to start off with credit, your delinquency trends inflected negative by quite a large margin this quarter down 22 basis points.

也許只是從信貸開始，本季您的拖欠趨勢大幅下降，下降了 22 個基點。

Can you just speak to your confidence of just whether or not you can kind of sustain that performance going forward?

您能否談談您是否有信心在未來維持這樣的表現？

And then just on your guide for the year, the 7.5% to 8% charge-offs.

然後根據您今年的指南，沖銷額為 7.5% 至 8%。

I guess maybe just talk about what gets to the high end versus the low end?

我想也許只是討論一下什麼是高端，什麼是低端？

Because obviously, the high end is not that much improvement, whereas the low end is more meaningful.

因為很明顯，高端並沒有那麼多的改善，而低端則更有意義。

Thanks, Terry.

謝謝，特里。

It's Jenny.

是珍妮。

So let me start with your first question on sort of the credit trends.

那麼，讓我先問一下關於信貸趨勢的第一個問題。

So generally, we're really pleased with the continued improvement we've seen across early delinquency and late-stage delinquency.

總的來說，我們對早期違約和後期違約情況的持續改善感到非常高興。

We're confident we've come down from those peak losses in the first quarter of 2024, and we're we look forward to lower losses driving improved earnings and cap gen.

我們相信，我們的虧損已從 2024 年第一季的高峰迴落，我們預期虧損降低，從而推動獲利和資本產生率的提高。

When we look at our delinquency trends this quarter, we really see them all pointing in the right direction, so that 3.06% Consumer loan delinquency is better than our historical patterns, and we saw it was -- you mentioned 22 basis points better than last year and only 5 basis points higher than the third quarter, which is very good seasonally.

當我們查看本季的拖欠趨勢時，我們確實看到它們都指向正確的方向，因此3.06% 的消費貸款拖欠率比我們的歷史模式要好，而且我們看到——您提到比去年好22 個基點僅比第三季高出 5 個基點，從季節性來看，這是非常好的。

And for losses, our consumer loan net charge-offs are down 7 basis points year-over-year.

就損失而言，我們的消費貸款淨沖銷額比去年同期下降了 7 個基點。

So we've crossed over 2023 and are improving.

所以我們已經跨越了 2023 年並且正在不斷進步。

And we focus on delinquency because that's the best leading indicator for losses.

我們關注拖欠率是因為這是損失的最佳領先指標。

So from where we say right now, we really feel like we've seen the impact of our underwriting changes that we made since August 2022, and we're expecting that momentum to come through in 2025.

因此，從目前的情況來看，我們確實覺得我們已經看到了自 2022 年 8 月以來所做的承保變化的影響，並且我們預計這種勢頭將在 2025 年實現。

And to hit on your second piece, the go forward and the guide and what it would take to put us sort of at the top end of that range or at the bottom end, I mean it really is dependent on the pace of the back book rolling off, those continued delinquency trends and the roll rates through to loss.

說到你的第二點，前進和指南，以及需要做些什麼才能讓我們處於這個範圍的頂端或底端，我的意思是這真的取決於後面書的速度滾動、持續的拖欠趨勢以及直至損失的滾動率。

Our growth in originations also impacts delinquencies.

我們的貸款發放量成長也會影響貸款拖欠的情況。

So to the extent that we can continue to grow.

以便我們能夠繼續發展。

And then there's the macro obviously.

然後顯然還有宏。

And to the extent it gets better, it could push you towards the top end or to the extent it gets much worse, it could push you much further.

當情況變好時，它可能會將你推向頂端；當情況變得更糟時，它可能會將你推向更遠。

So I think those are sort of -- I think that's the best way to guide you.

所以我認為這些是——我認為這是指導你的最佳方式。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then maybe as a follow-up on the portfolio yield.

然後或許作為投資組合收益率的後續行動。

I think you guided to kind of modest improvement in 2025.

我認為您預測 2025 年將會有適度改善。

But as I look at the yield in the back half of this past year, it improved cumulatively about 30 basis points over the last two quarters.

但當我回顧去年下半年的收益率時，發現過去兩個季度收益率累積提高了約 30 個基點。

So any color around that and the dynamics going forward?

那麼，這方面有什麼特色以及未來的發展動態嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

No problem.

沒問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So you're right, I said before, we're expecting very modest improvement from our fourth quarter run rate, which was 22.2% on consumer loan yield for next year -- or for this year, I should say.

所以你是對的，我之前說過，我們預計第四季度的運行率將有非常小幅改善，明年（或者我應該說今年）的消費貸款收益率為 22.2%。

We are already seeing the improvements from the pricing actions that we've taken in the personal loan portfolio and the auto portfolio over the past several quarters, and that's starting to flow through.

我們已經看到過去幾季我們在個人貸款組合和汽車組合中採取的定價行動所帶來的改善，而這種改善開始顯現。

But as you know, those tailwinds are partially offset by credit.

但正如你所知，這些順風部分被信貸所抵消。

And there's also the growth in our lower loss, lower yield auto business and it takes time.

而且我們的低虧損、低收益汽車業務也在成長，這需要時間。

So looking forward, that rate of improvement really will depend on our product mix, meaning auto, which types of personal loans were lending, the state rate mix, et cetera.

因此展望未來，這種改善率實際上將取決於我們的產品組合，即汽車產品、哪些類型的個人貸款、國家利率組合等等。

Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen.

Moshe Orenbuch，TD Cowen。

Maybe kind of sticking with credit a little bit, Jenny.

也許有點堅持信用，珍妮。

I mean, you talked -- you mentioned kind of roll rates as a as a factor that's going to drive charge-offs relative to delinquencies.

我的意思是，您談到了——您提到了滾動率是導致與拖欠有關的沖銷的一個因素。

Could you just talk a little bit, I mean given obviously, we've got this persistent inflationary environment, but at least in theory that continues to get better or less bad as time goes on.

您能否稍微談一下，我的意思是，顯然我們現在面臨著持續的通膨環境，但至少從理論上講，隨著時間的推移，通膨情況會變得更好或不那麼糟糕。

And maybe are there other factors that we should be looking at?

也許我們還應該考慮其他因素？

No, thanks for that.

不，謝謝你。

I think that's right.

我認為那是對的。

It's a key -- it's one of the key metrics that we're looking at.

這是關鍵——這是我們正在關注的關鍵指標之一。

We do see roles from delinquency to charge-off performing pretty well.

我們確實看到從拖欠到註銷的角色表現得相當好。

There is a little bit of noise from some of our new products but if you look at the rules from 30 to 89 for consumer loans, excluding Foursight to charge off, those trends are in line to slightly better than what we would typically see.

我們的一些新產品確實存在一些噪音，但如果您查看從 30 到 89 的消費貸款規則（不包括 Foursight 的沖銷規則），這些趨勢比我們通常看到的要好一些。

So that's a good sign, and we're watching it closely.

這是一個好兆頭，我們正在密切關注。

And to the extent it continues, it would be a great sign for credit.

如果這種情況持續下去，這將是一個很好的信用訊號。

Let me just add, Moshe, a little bit on credit is a lot of the improvement we're seeing is us actively managing the book, which means we've got a very high-touch personalized business model where we can work with any customer who might be getting into trouble, and we think we get priority of payment.

我再補充一點，Moshe，我們看到的許多改進都是因為我們積極管理帳簿，這意味著我們有一個非常高接觸的個人化商業模式，我們可以與任何客戶合作誰可能會遇到麻煩，我們認為我們可以優先獲得付款。

And also, we've been originating better credit customers who have plenty of net disposable income to pay us back.

此外，我們也不斷尋找信用較好的客戶，這些客戶擁有充足的淨可支配收入來償還我們。

And so what we've seen since really '22, credit was pretty volatile.

因此，自 22 年起，我們就看到信貸非常不穩定。

And we didn't see what we had originated in '21, performing in line with expectations.

我們並沒有看到我們在21年取得的成績，也沒有達到預期。

We've really seen things stabilize, which means the credit performance of the loans we were booking all last year are performing as expected.

我們確實看到情況趨於穩定，這意味著我們去年全年登記的貸款的信用表現符合預期。

But I think the important thing is, as you mentioned, I mean, cumulative inflation is still high.

但我認為重要的是，正如你所提到的，累積通膨仍然很高。

A customer still goes to the grocery store and pays $140 for their groceries when they used to pay $100 five years ago, and that's in their mind.

五年前，顧客去雜貨店買食品雜貨要花 100 美元，但現在他們要花 140 美元，這只是他們的想法而已。

The good news is income is caught up in aggregate.

好消息是收入已經跟上整體水平。

And so in general, people kind of curious about high and low end of the range.

一般來說，人們對範圍的高端和低端很好奇。

If we see vintages of customers, monthly vintages, quarterly vintages, start performing better than expected, that's what we'll start to drive things down and get you to lower end of the range.

如果我們發現客戶的季度銷售、月度銷售、季度銷售的表現都優於預期，那麼我們就會開始降低價格，讓您處於更低的範圍。

And so we're really happy that we've been able to manage our business to get the portfolio average of credit dropping this year, and we think it will drop again next year.

因此，我們非常高興我們能夠管理我們的業務，使今年的信貸組合平均值下降，我們認為明年它將再次下降。

And we've seen things really stabilized, and we've been spot on with our assumptions as we underwrite.

我們看到情況確實已經穩定下來，我們在承保時也準確地遵守了我們的假設。

And so -- but the consumer -- it's not like the broad consumer has gotten wildly better in the last year.

但是，對於消費者而言，廣大消費者的狀況在去年並沒有顯著改善。

It's more we've gotten better consumers on our book.

我們的書籍已擁有更好的消費者。

Got it.

知道了。

And I guess as a follow-up, the kind of outlook that you put out there kind of has revenue and expenses growing at the same rate.

我想作為後續問題，您提出的前景是收入和支出以相同的速度成長。

And yes, I understand that your efficiency is better than it was pre-pandemic.

是的，我知道你們的效率比疫情前更高了。

But is there either something in there that you're thinking of a specific investment for a multiyear period or if we get kind of to the higher end of the range on revenue growth, would we then see that operating leverage even '25?

但是，您是否考慮在多年期內進行一項具體的投資，或者如果我們的收入成長達到更高的水平，那麼我們是否會看到營業槓桿率達到 25%？

Thanks.

謝謝。

I think there is some room in there, wait and see how growth originations growth plays out.

我認為其中還有一定的空間，等待並觀察成長起源的成長如何發揮作用。

So I think there is some room to swing in there.

因此我認為這裡還有一定的發展空間。

But revenue growth broadly follows the growth in the portfolio and receivables.

但收入成長大致跟隨投資組合和應收帳款的成長。

And there is some yield improvement in our revenues and a bit of fee revenue from the card book.

我們的收入有一些提高，並且從信用卡帳簿中獲得了一點費用收入。

And so the short answer is, I think there's some room for that.

簡短的回答是，我認為還是有一定的空間的。

Mark DeVries, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬克‧德弗里斯 (Mark DeVries)。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the comments you provided already, Jenny, on kind of allowance coverage, but I was hoping to drill down a little bit more.

珍妮，謝謝你提供的關於津貼覆蓋範圍的評論，但我希望更深入地探討一下。

Just wanted to better understand where you think that kind of ultimately goes to a CECL day 1 still relevant?

只是想更好地理解您認為這種最終與 CECL 第一天的相關性如何？

Or is kind of the mix shift with adding in both auto at lower losses and card, a presumably higher kind of affecting the ultimate endpoint?

還是在較低損耗下添加自動和卡片的混合轉變，可能對最終終點產生更高的影響？

Is it also kind of affecting the kind of the near intermediate term dynamics on where that goes, just kind of the relative growth in your different loan types?

這是否也會影響近期中期的動態，即不同類型貸款的相對成長？

Thanks.

謝謝。

It's a good question.

這是個好問題。

So there's obviously a lot that goes into how we look at the CECL reserve.

因此，我們顯然要考慮很多因素來看待 CECL 儲備。

And so I'm going to break it down into its parts a little bit and then we can come back to sort of how to think about the go forward.

因此我將把它稍微分解成幾個部分，然後我們就可以回頭思考如何繼續前進。

We said before, we're confident in our delinquency and our loss metrics improving.

我們之前說過，我們對我們的拖欠率和損失指標的改善充滿信心。

And our reserves look at lifetime losses.

我們的儲備考慮的是終身損失。

And as those continue to improve in the portfolio, we should see shifts on our consumer loan reserves, and those should come in gradually.

隨著投資組合的不斷改善，我們應該會看到消費貸款儲備的變化，而這些變化應該是逐步發生的。

There is the macro overlay, which reflects the uncertainty in the future direction of really say, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.

還有宏觀層面，它反映了未來通膨、失業率和利率等走向的不確定性。

And given there is a little uncertainty, we're just not ready to assume that things get better.

由於存在一些不確定性，我們還沒有準備好假設情況會好轉。

So I think to the extent things get better, there's some potential there.

因此我認為，只要情況好轉，就存在一定的潛力。

And then you're right, there is some product mix.

那麼你是對的，確實存在一些產品組合。

We have a growing but pretty immature card portfolio.

我們的卡片組合正在不斷成長，但還不夠成熟。

So as that portfolio grows and we really figure out where it steadies out to, I think that's another piece of this.

因此，隨著投資組合的成長，我們真正弄清楚它會穩定下來，我認為這是另一個部分。

And so today, we're at that 11.5%.

所以今天我們的比率是 11.5%。

And over time, we could see that overall reserve coming down.

隨著時間的推移，我們可以看到整體儲備量下降。

I would say about 50 basis points.

我認為大約是 50 個基點。

I wouldn't expect it to get back to day 1.

我不會指望它回到第一天。

But it's really dependent on the market environment and that product mix and the timing of the two.

但這實際上取決於市場環境、產品組合以及兩者的時機。

Okay.

好的。

Just to follow-up on the CECL reserves on card.

只是為了跟進卡片上的 CECL 儲備金。

I mean it looks like charge-offs were more than twice what they are for the average billing, but I'm assuming the average life is shorter.

我的意思是，看起來沖銷金額是平均帳單金額的兩倍多，但我認為平均壽命要短一些。

Is there -- I'm just trying to get a sense of the what we should model for kind of like a CECL day 1 reserve on a card balance versus the rest of kind of your consumer loan.

有沒有——我只是想了解我們應該如何為卡片餘額的 CECL 第 1 天準備金與其餘消費貸款建立模型。

Yes.

是的。

When we look at it, we see consumer loans is closer to about 11.2% if you didn't have card.

當我們查看它時，我們會發現如果你沒有卡，消費貸款的利率接近 11.2% 左右。

And then if you added in card, you'd obviously get closer to the reserve levels that we have today.

然後，如果你添加了卡，你顯然會更接近我們今天的儲備水平。

John Hecht, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的約翰‧赫克特 (John Hecht)。

Doug and Jenny.

道格和珍妮。

First question is, I know it's early, and I know you've given some color on this, but it's early to evaluate '24.

第一個問題是，我知道現在還為時過早，我也知道您已經對此給出了一些解釋，但現在評價 24 年還為時過早。

But are there measures you can look at or characteristics you can look at maybe like first payment defaults or something like that, that you can kind of give us an initial take about what vintage '24 might be comparable to relative to history?

但是，您是否可以查看一些指標或特徵，例如首次付款違約或類似的東西，以便我們初步了解 24 年的年份與歷史年份相比有何可比性？

We don't typically give vintage level information, but I can -- I think across, I'd say, so across all of our front book, I'd say we are seeing really good customer payment behavior.

我們通常不會提供復古級別的信息，但我可以 - 我認為，從我們所有的前台賬簿來看，我想說，我們看到了非常好的客戶付款行為。

And we continue to see early payoffs trend around you or a little bit below pre-pandemic levels.

我們繼續看到早期收益趨勢略低於大流行前的水平。

We are seeing [30 and 3] tracking closer to 2017.

我們看到[30和3]的走勢接近2017年。

So I think we're quite happy with the more recent vintages.

所以我認為我們對最近的葡萄酒非常滿意。

Okay.

好的。

And then given the forward curve, I guess, market conditions, which are pretty strong right now, and then your debt maturity stack, how should we think about cost of capital?

然後考慮到遠期曲線，我猜，市場條件現在相當強勁，然後是你的債務到期堆棧，我們應該如何考慮資本成本？

Like, assuming all of those stay kind of where they are now, what would happen to the cost of capital over the course of the year?

例如，假設所有這些都保持在現在的水平，那麼一年內資本成本會發生什麼變化？

Thanks.

謝謝。

That's a great question.

這是一個很好的問題。

Really, we expect this year to be slightly above where we are which we think is still pretty attractive given we've risen not as much as the cumulative impact from the rise of rates over the last several years.

實際上，我們預計今年的利率將略高於目前的水平，考慮到過去幾年利率上升的累積影響，我們認為這仍然相當有吸引力。

So we've been able to mute the rise quite a bit.

因此，我們能夠相當程度地抑制這種上升趨勢。

But this year is pretty locked in.

但今年的情況已經相當確定。

Nearly 90% of our average for 2025 is already on our books at fixed rates today.

我們目前已將 2025 年平均值的近 90% 以固定利率記入帳目中。

So in the near term, I think that's the best reasonable guide because we're relatively insulated from changes in rates in year.

因此，在短期內，我認為這是最好的合理指導，因為我們相對不受年度利率變化的影響。

Kyle Joseph, Stephens.

凱爾約瑟夫、史蒂芬斯。

Just wanted to get a competitive update kind of by product channel, just weighing the supply and demand of credit across card, personal loans and auto.

只是想透過產品管道獲得競爭性更新，衡量信用卡、個人貸款和汽車信貸的供需。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, let me give you a broad and then I can break it down a little.

我的意思是，讓我給你一個大概的概念，然後我可以稍微分解一下。

I mean, personal loans is still by far, the largest part of our book, the largest part of our originations.

我的意思是，個人貸款迄今為止仍然是我們帳簿上最大的一部分，也是我們貸款發放的最大的一部分。

I think it's been a very constructive competitive environment for us, as you see from our double-digit overall originations growth.

我認為這對我們來說是一個非常有建設性的競爭環境，正如您從我們兩位數的整體發起量成長所看到的那樣。

We've been able to have about two-thirds of what we're originating consistently all the way through 2024 being our top 2 risk grades and we've been able to get some price improvement along the way.

到 2024 年，我們的發起額中約有三分之二能夠始終保持最高 2 個風險等級，並且我們能夠在此過程中獲得一些價格改善。

So that tells us that we still have a very good competitive position and that there's probably not as much supply for our customers with our value proposition at the price that we offer.

所以，這告訴我們，我們仍然具有非常好的競爭地位，而且以我們提供的價格，我們可能無法為客戶提供那麼多符合我們價值主張的產品。

With that said, one of the main drivers of competitive environment is people's access to capital.

話雖如此，競爭環境的主要驅動因素之一是人們獲得資本的途徑。

We've got this differentiated balance sheet.

我們有這份差異化的資產負債表。

As Jenny said, we already have 90% of our funding on book.

正如珍妮所說，我們已經將 90% 的資金用於購買書籍。

We've been able through this whole down cycle the last several years of consumer credit in the nonprime space to make every single loan we want.

在過去幾年非優質領域消費信貸的整個下行週期中，我們能夠發放我們想要的每一筆貸款。

Some of our competitors had real trouble raising funds a couple of years ago, I think there is more supply of funds and people who want to wind can get funds now.

幾年前，我們的一些競爭對手在籌集資金方面確實遇到了麻煩，我認為現在資金供應已經增多，想要融資的人都可以獲得資金了。

And there is capital available in the market for solid players.

而市場上有足夠的資本來吸引實力雄厚的參與者。

Generally, our spreads have been tighter than our competitors.

整體而言，我們的利差比競爭對手更小。

So it still gives us some competitive advantage.

所以它仍然為我們帶來一些競爭優勢。

I think some of the newer tech players are -- you've seen kind of come in and out of the market some.

我認為，你已經看到一些較新的科技參與者進入和退出市場。

And so it -- I think we're going to assume that there's going to be a lot of competition this year if the macro remains stable.

所以——我認為，如果宏觀經濟保持穩定，我們可以假設今年的競爭將會非常激烈。

I think in cards, remember, we have a very small book, and there's a lot of different players.

我認為在紙牌方面，請記住，我們有一本很小的書，裡面有很多不同的玩家。

We're just a real upstart.

我們只是一個真正的新貴。

So we have -- we find channels and pockets where we have super high conviction.

因此，我們找到了我們非常有信心的管道和通路口袋。

So it's not like we're competing broadly in the card market right now.

因此，我們目前在卡片市場上的競爭並不激烈。

I mean last quarter, we originated 93 million of cards.

我的意思是上個季度，我們發放了 9,300 萬張卡。

I think that market, similar commentary of what I gave you.

我認為那個市場與我給你的評論類似。

The really big players and some of the banks have plenty of access to capital.

真正的大公司和一些銀行擁有充足的資本。

Some of the smaller players have run into trouble.

一些規模較小的參與者陷入了困境。

Some of them have sold off recently.

其中一些最近已被售出。

And then a similar commentary in auto.

然後在汽車中也有類似的評論。

With our independent dealers, we've got a unique market position, and we are a super strong player with the independent dealers, and we see that market, we haven't seen a lot of competitive pressure.

憑藉我們的獨立經銷商，我們在市場中佔據了獨特的地位，我們是獨立經銷商中的超強參與者，我們發現這個市場並沒有給我們帶來太大的競爭壓力。

And then in the franchise dealers, which we've just gone into, similar comment to what I said about cards is we're such a challenger and so small.

然後在我們剛剛進入的特許經銷商中，與我關於卡片所說的類似的評論是，我們是一個挑戰者，而且規模很小。

We're picking pockets Foursight has deep and long relationships with dealers.

我們正在掏錢 Foursight 與經銷商保持著深厚而長期的關係。

And so we're leveraging that and will slowly expand.

所以我們會利用這一點並且慢慢擴大。

And so I think, overall, it's a more competitive environment than it was a couple of years ago.

因此我認為，整體而言，現在的競爭環境比幾年前更加激烈。

But I don't think we're back to the same kind of -- some irrational competition that we saw in '21.

但我不認為我們又回到了21世紀那種非理性的競爭狀態。

Got it.

知道了。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

And then just a quick follow-up, given where we are in the year in the quarter.

然後，根據我們本季度的狀況，進行一個簡短的後續。

Just anything you'd highlight on tax refund expectations or what you've seen so far this year and kind of how you expect timing and magnitude to compare year-over-year?

您能否強調一下對退稅的預期，或者您今年迄今為止看到的情況，以及您預計時間和幅度與去年同期相比如何？

I think it's still pretty early.

我認為現在還很早。

As you know, tax refunds usually means we have slower originations in the quarter but we also -- some people use it to pay their loans.

如您所知，退稅通常意味著我們本季的貸款發放速度較慢，但有些人也會用它來償還貸款。

So we haven't seen anything wildly different than the last couple of years.

因此，我們並未看到與過去幾年相比有太大變化的情況。

Michael Kaye, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥可凱耶。

So ex the impact of the mix effect of the front book back book and you also mentioned you're originating higher-quality loans.

因此，例如前帳簿和後帳簿的混合效應的影響，您也提到您正在發放更高品質的貸款。

Can you just give some color on how credit is performing more like a like-for-like basis?

您能否稍微解釋一下信貸在同類基礎上的表現如何？

Meaning how credit is trending across the risk grades?

意思是信用在各個風險等級的趨勢如何？

Yes, I'd say in general, in terms of -- we don't -- we see all of our risk rates performing on the front book to expectations.

是的，我想說，總體而言，我們沒有看到所有風險率在前帳簿上的表現都符合預期。

So in terms of if there's variability in terms of expected performance, I'd say there is none.

因此，如果預期表現有變化，我會說沒有。

Obviously, you have different expectations for different risk grades, and it also goes much deeper than that in terms of how they come in and a variety of other factors.

顯然，您對不同風險等級有不同的預期，就風險產生的方式和其他各種因素而言，預期還會更加深入。

But in general, no, we see no variability across the front book.

但總體來說，我們沒有看到前冊有任何變化。

Okay.

好的。

And I saw a recent Fed report that shows the share of credit card accounts making minimum payments that rolls to a 12-year high.

我看到聯準會最近的一份報告顯示，信用卡帳戶中以最低還款額的比例已達到 12 年來的最高水準。

So I'm wondering if you look at your recent trends and the use of proceeds for your loans, like have you seen a surge in debt consolidation requests?

所以我想知道，如果您查看最近的趨勢和貸款收益的使用情況，是否發現債務合併請求激增？

I'm wondering maybe this is also adding to the higher loan demand you've been seeing and I think Doug mentioned a new debt consolidation product.

我想知道這是否也增加了您所看到的更高的貸款需求，我認為道格提到了一種新的債務合併產品。

Maybe just talk about that?

也許只是談論一下這個？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Michael.

謝謝，麥可。

The -- we have not seen -- we've steadily had 30% to 40% of our loans people use for debt consolidation.

我們沒有看到，我們的貸款中 30% 到 40% 一直被人們用於債務合併。

Over the last year, we have really improved that product, added a lot of automation, which makes it much easier for people to automatically pay off the debt, and it's a smoother customer interface for them.

在過去的一年裡，我們確實改進了該產品，增加了許多自動化功能，這使得人們可以更輕鬆地自動償還債務，並為他們提供了更流暢的客戶介面。

And we've also explicitly been having some marketing around debt consolidation as a value proposition.

我們也明確地圍繞債務合併作為價值主張進行了一些行銷。

One of the reasons is what you stated.

其中一個原因正如您所說的。

I mean there's been a real growth in balance of credit cards.

我的意思是信用卡餘額確實增加了。

And we think as we kind of if the environment remains stable and as we even get into a better environment, I think people will be potentially wanting to pay down their credit cards and the personal lending product is an opportunity for them to do that.

我們認為，如果環境保持穩定，甚至進入更好的環境，我認為人們可能會想要償還信用卡債務，而個人貸款產品就是他們實現這一目標的機會。

And so we haven't seen a lot of movement yet, but we have honed our product so that we're ready if the market moves in that direction.

因此，我們還沒有看到太多的動向，但我們已經完善了我們的產品，以便當市場朝著那個方向發展時，我們已經做好準備。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

美國銀行的米希爾·巴蒂亞 (Mihir Bhatia)。

First on the forward close.

首先是遠期收盤。

Jen, you touched on this in your comments, but could you expand on that a little bit.

Jen，你在評論中提到了這一點，但你能否稍微詳細說明一下呢？

We've obviously seen in the last few months, private capital being very active.

我們明顯看到過去幾個月私人資本非常活躍。

In the personal loan space, whether -- and others have been selling or choosing to originate loans on their behalf.

在個人貸款領域，其他人是否一直在銷售貸款或選擇代表他們發放貸款。

So I was just wondering what's OneMain's view of that strategy?

所以我只是想知道 OneMain 對該策略有何看法？

Can you just talk a little bit about how much -- how you balance originating for your balance sheet versus originating for private capital?

您能否稍微談談如何平衡您的資產負債表資金和私人資本？

Like what the economics are, what the puts are.

例如經濟學是什麼，看跌期權是什麼。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Mihir.

謝謝，Mihir。

We really look at these types of arrangements as additive versus necessary.

我們確實認為這些類型的安排是附加的，而不是必要的。

So we show quarter after quarter that we have access to capital through the public markets.

因此，我們每季都證明，我們可以透過公開市場獲得資本。

And we really see that access as a true competitive differentiator for our business.

我們確實把這種存取權視為我們業務的真正競爭優勢。

And so we did mention today that we selectively expanded our whole loan sale forward flow program.

因此我們今天確實提到，我們有選擇地擴大了我們的整個貸款銷售正向流動計劃。

And this year, we'll have $900 million in committed flow arrangements through the end of 2025.

今年，到 2025 年底，我們將承諾流量安排達 9 億美元。

But just -- and just for scale, that's larger for us, we had $500 million in commitments in 2024.

但是—就規模而言，這對我們來說更大，我們在 2024 年的承諾為 5 億美元。

And the most we've done in any year was $720 million in 2022.

我們每年所做的最高記錄是 2022 年的 7.2 億美元。

So it is more -- we think of it as nice flexibility, and we're open to exploring opportunities for more arrangements, and we have quite a few discussions.

因此，我們認為這是一種很好的靈活性，我們願意探索更多安排的機會，我們已經進行了相當多的討論。

We see it as an opportunity to diversify funding sources, but we don't need those types of arrangements.

我們認為這是實現資金來源多樣化的機會，但我們不需要那種類型的安排。

So that allows us to be very disciplined when we look at pricing and the economic trade-offs.

因此，當我們考慮定價和經濟權衡時，我們可以非常自律。

And we're also -- we're looking at all pieces of how you make those arrangements work and it gives us some flexibility to make decisions in terms of how -- when we want to enter into those arrangements.

而且我們也在研究如何使這些安排發揮作用的所有部分，這為我們在何時如何達成這些安排方面做出了一些靈活的決定。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

No, that's helpful.

不，這很有幫助。

And then maybe just turning to the credit discussion a little bit and the consumers held.

然後也許只是稍微轉向信用討論並且消費者持有這種觀點。

And I guess what I'm trying to square is just you're continuing to originate, I think you said two-thirds of your originations were in your top risk grades.

我想我要說明的是，您只是在繼續發起，我記得您說過，您的三分之二的發起都處於最高風險等級。

I understand that you still are dealing with the back book and you mentioned a third of delinquencies, I think, are from the back book still.

我知道您仍在處理後台帳簿，而且您提到三分之一的拖欠款項，我認為，仍然來自後台帳簿。

But as we get later in the '25, into '26, what does that mean for your long-term loss rates or, I guess, the health of the customer?

但隨著我們進入25年和26年，這對您的長期損失率或客戶的健康狀況意味著什麼？

Like how much variability is there in charge-offs between your top risk rates and the lower risk rates?

例如，最高風險率和較低風險率之間的沖銷差異有多大？

So just trying to understand, longer term, the implications are continuing to originate more and more loans in the top half or the top 2 buckets of your risk weights.

因此，試圖理解，從長期來看，其影響是繼續在風險權重的前半部分或前兩個部分發放越來越多的貸款。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, look, let me give you some context because losses are a big driver, but we don't originate to a loss rate.

我的意思是，看，讓我給你一些背景信息，因為損失是一個重要的驅動因素，但我們並不是損失率的起源。

We originate to 20% return on equity, on the equity we put into every loan.

我們為每筆貸款投入的股本回報率為 20%。

And we've got a model that includes the revenue, the operating expense, the interest and the losses.

我們有一個包含收入、營運費用、利息和損失的模型。

So some of this is depending on product and the price we can charge.

因此，這取決於產品和我們可以收取的價格。

And -- so we haven't changed our longer-term guidance that, in general, in a totally stable environment will be in the 6% to 7% long term.

因此，我們沒有改變我們的長期指導方針，總體而言，在完全穩定的環境下，長期成長率將保持在 6% 到 7% 之間。

But we are now headed down from what we think is the peak in 2024, and we're moving in the right direction in 2025 but it's going to be dependent on product.

但我們目前正從 2024 年的峰值走低，2025 年我們正朝著正確的方向前進，但這將取決於產品。

When we get there, it's going to be dependent on product mix, how we go.

當我們到達那裡時，它將取決於產品組合以及我們如何前進。

And again, we're trying to run a return on equity business and a profitability business, not just a, like get to the loss business.

再說一遍，我們試著經營一家能帶來股本回報和獲利的企業，而不僅僅是一家虧損的企業。

And so as I mentioned earlier, we like the direction of travel now.

正如我之前提到的，我們喜歡現在的旅行方向。

We had a couple of tough years with stuck with our back book.

我們度過了幾年艱難的時期，因為我們的帳簿被卡住了。

We've been turning it over and actively managing it.

我們一直在轉變觀念，積極管理。

And I think moving from here going forward, we should see increase in earnings, increasing capital generation and a steady decrease in losses will be part of that.

我認為從現在開始向前發展，我們應該看到收益增加、資本創造增加以及損失穩定減少。

Well, we're at the top of the hour.

嗯，現在正是整點。

Let me thank everyone for joining us.

我感謝大家的參與。

As always, if you have further questions, please get in touch with the team.

像往常一樣，如果您還有其他問題，請與團隊聯絡。

Thank you to all of our investors for the really high-quality, valuable engagement we had in 2024, and we're looking forward to talking with you more in 2025.

感謝我們所有的投資者在 2024 年與我們進行的真正高品質、有價值的合作，我們期待在 2025 年與您進行更多交流。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's OneMain Financial Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast.

今天的 OneMain Financial 2024 年第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播就到此結束。

Please disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

請立即斷開您的線路，祝您有美好的一天。