OneMain Holdings Inc (OMF) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the OneMain Financial Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Hosting the call today from OneMain is Peter Poillon, Head of Investor Relations. Today's call is being recorded.

歡迎參加 OneMain Financial 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議和網路廣播。今天主持 OneMain 電話會議的是投資者關係主管 Peter Poillon。今天的通話正在錄音。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Peter Poillon. You may begin.

現在我很高興將發言權交給 Peter Poillon。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Let me begin by directing you to Page 2 of the fourth quarter 2023 investor presentation, which contains important disclosures concerning forward-looking statements and the use of non-GAAP measures. The presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of the OneMain website. Our discussion today will contain certain forward-looking statements reflecting management's current beliefs about the company's future financial performance and business prospects and these forward-looking statements are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties and speak only as of today. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are set forth in our earnings press release. We caution you not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，接線生。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。首先，我將引導您閱讀 2023 年第四季投資者簡報的第 2 頁，其中包含有關前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 指標使用的重要揭露。此簡報可以在 OneMain 網站的投資者關係部分找到。我們今天的討論將包含某些前瞻性陳述，反映管理層當前對公司未來財務業績和業務前景的信念，這些前瞻性陳述受到固有風險和不確定性的影響，並且僅在今天發表。我們的收益新聞稿中列出了可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異的因素。我們提醒您不要過度依賴前瞻性陳述。

If you may be listening to this via replay at some point after today, we remind you that the remarks made herein are as of today, February 7, and have not been updated subsequent to this call. Our call this morning will include formal remarks from Doug Shulman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Micah Conrad, our Chief Financial Officer. After the conclusion of our formal remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session.

如果您可能在今天之後的某個時間透過重播收聽此內容，我們提醒您，本文中的言論截至今天 2 月 7 日，並且在本次電話會議之後尚未更新。我們今天早上的電話會議將包括我們的董事長兼執行長 Doug Shulman 的正式演講；和我們的財務長 Micah Conrad。正式發言結束後，我們將進行問答環節。

I'd like to now turn the call over to Doug.

我現在想把電話轉給道格。

Thanks, Pete, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I'm going to provide a brief overview of 2023, and then I'll discuss our performance for the fourth quarter and our progress against key strategic initiatives. As many of you heard at Investor Day in December, while we continue to navigate the current credit environment, we feel that OneMain has never been better positioned for medium- and long-term outperformance.

謝謝，皮特，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。我將簡要概述 2023 年，然後討論我們第四季度的業績以及關鍵策略舉措的進展。正如你們許多人在 12 月投資者日上聽到的那樣，在我們繼續應對當前信貸環境的同時，我們認為 OneMain 處於中長期優異表現的最佳位置。

In 2023, capital generation was nearly $800 million and our receivables reached $22 billion, supplemented by growth in our new products. In the year, we also grew our customer base to 3 million customers. We maintained our underwriting discipline in 2023, tightening our credit box throughout the year and increasing pricing and continue to feel very good about the loans we are originating today. In what was a difficult funding environment, the strength of our balance sheet and capital markets program was evident. We raised $4.6 billion including issuing 3x in the unsecured market and we continue to strengthen our already industry-leading liquidity profile.

2023 年，我們的資本產生量接近 8 億美元，我們的應收帳款達到 220 億美元，並輔以新產品的成長。這一年，我們的客戶群也擴大到了 300 萬人。我們在 2023 年維持了承保紀律，全年收緊信貸箱並提高定價，並且繼續對我們今天發放的貸款感到非常滿意。在困難的融資環境中，我們的資產負債表和資本市場計畫的實力是顯而易見的。我們籌集了 46 億美元，其中包括在無擔保市場發行 3 倍，並繼續加強我們業已領先的流動性狀況。

We made significant progress in the development and growth of our new products, most notably credit cards and auto finance and also announced the acquisition of Foursight to give us a platform to access franchise auto dealers. The nearly $800 million of capital generated in 2023 is a testament to OneMain strong business model. If you attended our Investor Day in December, you heard that we have a line of sight to significant capital generation growth over the medium term as the economic environment stabilizes and our new product scale.

我們在新產品（尤其是信用卡和汽車金融）的開發和成長方面取得了重大進展，並宣布收購 Foursight，為我們提供接觸特許汽車經銷商的平台。 2023 年產生的近 8 億美元資本證明了 OneMain 強大的商業模式。如果您參加了 12 月的投資者日，您就會聽說，隨著經濟環境的穩定和我們的新產品規模的擴大，我們預計中期內資本產生將顯著增長。

In 2023, we remained cautious in our approach to growing the credit card business, but still grew our book to $330 million in receivables and 430,000 customers. We're really pleased with the progress made last year in terms of maturing the business and customer experience. Our auto finance business grew more than $350 million in 2023. And with the acquisition of Foursight, which we expect to close this quarter, we're well positioned to drive profitable growth in this business in the years ahead.

2023 年，我們對發展信用卡業務的態度保持謹慎，但應收帳款和客戶數量仍增至 3.3 億美元和 43 萬名。我們對去年在業務和客戶體驗成熟方面取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們的汽車金融業務在 2023 年成長超過 3.5 億美元。隨著我們預計將於本季完成的對 Foursight 的收購，我們已準備好在未來幾年推動該業務的獲利成長。

Trim by OneMain, our financial wellness platform which helps customers save money on household bills and manage everyday expenses continues to help our customers improve their financial well-being. Credit worthy by OneMain our community program that teaches young people, the importance of responsible management of credit has now provided 3 financial education programs to over 275,000 students in more than 3,400 high schools across the country and OneMain was certified as a most loved workplace by the Best Practice Institute for the second year in a row showcasing our deep commitment to our team members who serve our customers so well every day.

Trim by OneMain 是我們的財務健康平台，可協助客戶節省家庭帳單和管理日常開支，並持續幫助我們的客戶改善財務狀況。 OneMain 值得信賴，我們的社區計劃向年輕人傳授負責任的信用管理的重要性，現已為全國3,400 多所高中的275,000 多名學生提供了3 個金融教育計劃，OneMain 被認證為最受喜愛的工作場所連續第二年獲得最佳實踐學院獎，展示了我們對每天為客戶提供優質服務的團隊成員的堅定承諾。

Let me now turn to the results of the quarter. Capital generation. The key metric against which we measure financial performance and manage our business was $191 million. Our competitive positioning deep experience with the nonprime consumer and broadened product offering allowed us to grow receivables and our customer base despite a markedly tightened credit box. Our originations in the quarter totaled $3 billion. Even though demand for our loan products remains very strong, we deliberately reduce the pace of originations as we have taken a conservative view on credit and continued to tighten our underwriting and increase pricing in certain segments. Loan net charge-offs in the quarter were 7.7%, up seasonally from the third quarter and in line with our expectations for the quarter. Full year net charge-offs were 7.4%, in line with our expectations at the beginning of the year.

現在讓我談談本季的業績。資本生成。我們衡量財務績效和管理業務的關鍵指標是 1.91 億美元。我們的競爭定位、對非優質消費者的豐富經驗和更廣泛的產品供應使我們能夠在信貸條件明顯收緊的情況下增加應收帳款和客戶群。我們本季的發起總額為 30 億美元。儘管對我們貸款產品的需求仍然非常強勁，但我們故意降低了發放速度，因為我們對信貸採取保守態度，並繼續收緊承保並提高某些細分市場的定價。本季貸款淨沖銷率為 7.7%，較第三季季節性上升，符合我們對本季的預期。全年淨沖銷率為 7.4%，符合我們年初的預期。

We feel good about the actions we have taken on credit over the past 18 months. Our front book continues to perform in line with expectations. And the majority of our elevated delinquency is coming from our back book, which is running off, but still represented over half of our delinquent receivables in December. Our pace of originations has slowed down the front book transition, resulting in a greater mix of higher delinquency back book receivables in our overall portfolio. This has created a dynamic in delinquency and loss metrics, which Micah will discuss later.

我們對過去 18 個月以來的信貸行動感到滿意。我們的前線圖書表現持續符合預期。我們的拖欠帳款大部分來自我們的帳簿，雖然帳簿正在耗盡，但仍佔 12 月拖欠應收帳款的一半以上。我們的發起速度放慢了前帳簿的過渡，導致我們的整體投資組合中出現了更多拖欠率更高的後帳應收帳款。這造成了拖欠和損失指標的動態變化，Micah 將在稍後討論。

Importantly, we feel very good about the performance of newer vintages. We are confident that this is moving the credit performance of our entire portfolio in the right direction, and we expect losses to peak in 2024 as long as the current macro environment stays relatively stable. Operating expenses are a key lever we have control over in our business, and we are taking cost actions to ensure that we keep producing operating leverage. We are driving efficiency across the business by closely examining every expense, making cuts where appropriate, but also investing in our future, whether it be in technology and digital, new products, data science or other key areas. I am very pleased with our expense management in 2023 and we expect to reduce our operating expense ratio again in 2024.

重要的是，我們對新年份酒的表現感覺非常好。我們相信，這將使我們整個投資組合的信貸表現朝著正確的方向發展，我們預計，只要當前宏觀環境保持相對穩定，損失將在 2024 年達到高峰。營運費用是我們在業務中控制的關鍵槓桿，我們正在採取成本行動以確保我們繼續產生營運槓桿。我們透過仔細檢查每一項費用、適當削減開支來提高整個業務的效率，同時也投資於我們的未來，無論是在技術和數位、新產品、數據科學或其他關鍵領域。我對我們 2023 年的費用管理非常滿意，我們預計 2024 年將再次降低營運費用率。

Turning now to our strategic initiatives. During our Investor Day, we spent some time discussing our plans to expand OneMain's business across 2 complementary products with attractive returns, credit cards and auto finance, both of which are key components of our long-term strategy. Our customer base grew 15% in 2023, a sizable portion of that was driven by our stage rollout of these new products. We like the continued metrics we are seeing across our credit card portfolio. The utilization rate is excellent, and the card continues to be used regularly for groceries, gas and household goods. Our customers also really like the product and digital engagement is high, driving customer satisfaction and operating efficiencies. Given the macroeconomic uncertainty, we have tilted our new originations towards our lower line cards with an annual fee and continue to book business that meets our return thresholds even if the economic outlook changes.

現在談談我們的策略舉措。在投資者日期間，我們花了一些時間討論了將 OneMain 業務擴展到兩種具有吸引力回報的互補產品的計劃：信用卡和汽車金融，這兩者都是我們長期戰略的關鍵組成部分。到 2023 年，我們的客戶群成長了 15%，其中很大一部分是由我們階段性推出這些新產品所推動的。我們喜歡在信用卡投資組合中看到的持續指標。利用率非常高，該卡繼續定期用於雜貨、天然氣和家庭用品。我們的客戶也非常喜歡該產品，且數位化參與度很高，從而提高了客戶滿意度和營運效率。考慮到宏觀經濟的不確定性，我們已將新業務轉向年費較低的線路卡，並繼續預訂符合我們回報門檻的業務，即使經濟前景發生變化。

We're maintaining our disciplined approach to the rollout of cards as we enter 2024, but think we've built a great product and value proposition for customers, which we will be able to scale in future years. Our auto finance business loans sourced at a growing network of independent dealerships across the United States reached almost $750 million of receivables at year-end. We expect that the business we have built combined with the platform and network of franchise dealerships that we acquired with Foursight will drive profitable growth long into the future.

進入 2024 年，我們將繼續保持嚴格的卡片推出方式，但我們認為我們已經為客戶建立了出色的產品和價值主張，我們將能夠在未來幾年擴大規模。截至年底，我們從美國各地不斷成長的獨立經銷商網路獲得的汽車金融業務貸款應收帳款達到近 7.5 億美元。我們預計，我們建立的業務與我們透過 Foursight 收購的特許經銷商平台和網路相結合，將在未來很長一段時間內推動獲利成長。

I'll close by briefly touching on capital allocation. Our long-stated strategy remains the same. Our top priority remains investing in the business to position us for ongoing success. We will continue to invest in high-quality loans that meet our return hurdles, while also investing in new products and channels like card and auto and in data science and digital capabilities that improve the customer experience and further advance our competitive positioning. We are committed to our strong regular dividend, which is $1 per share on a quarterly basis and $4 per share annually. Our Board will continue to consider raising the dividend likely when the macro and credit environment is less uncertain. We purchased about 1.7 million shares of our stock for $65 million in 2023 and we expect to maintain a disciplined approach to repurchases in 2024.

最後我將簡要地談談資本配置。我們長期制定的策略保持不變。我們的首要任務仍然是投資業務，使我們能夠持續成功。我們將繼續投資於滿足回報障礙的高品質貸款，同時投資於卡片和汽車等新產品和管道，以及投資於數據科學和數位能力，以改善客戶體驗並進一步提升我們的競爭地位。我們致力於提供豐厚的定期股息，每季每股 1 美元，每年每股 4 美元。當宏觀和信貸環境不太不確定時，我們的董事會將繼續考慮提高股利。 2023 年，我們以 6,500 萬美元的價格購買了約 170 萬股股票，我們預計在 2024 年將保持嚴格的回購方式。

With that, let me turn the call over to Micah.

現在，讓我把電話轉給 Micah。

Thanks, Doug, and good morning, everyone. Our final quarter of 2023 was highlighted by continued prudent execution of credit and pricing, ongoing expense discipline and another quarter of strong funding and balance sheet management. Fourth quarter net income was $165 million or $1.38 per diluted share, down 4% from $1.44 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2022. C&I adjusted net income was $1.39 per diluted share, down 9% from $1.53 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. Capital generation was $191 million for the quarter compared to $229 million a year ago, reflecting the impacts of the current macro environment on our interest expense yield and net charge-offs.

謝謝，道格，大家早安。我們 2023 年最後一個季度的亮點是信貸和定價的持續審慎執行、持續的費用紀律以及另一個季度強勁的融資和資產負債表管理。 Fourth quarter net income was $165 million or $1.38 per diluted share, down 4% from $1.44 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2022. C&I adjusted net income was $1.39 per diluted share, down 9% from $1.53 per diluted share in the prior year四分之一.本季資本生成為 1.91 億美元，而去年同期為 2.29 億美元，反映了當前宏觀環境對我們利息支出收益率和淨沖銷的影響。

For full year 2023, net income was $641 million. C&I adjusted earnings were $5.43 per diluted share and capital generation was $794 million. Capital generation return on receivables was just below 4%. Managed receivables finished the year at $22.2 billion, up $1.5 billion or 7% from a year ago. Fourth quarter originations were down 13% year-over-year as we continue to tighten our underwriting and maintain a conservative approach to new originations. Part of our tightening has come through pricing actions that we've been taking throughout the year. The average APR on our loan originations is currently around 27% compared to 26% a year ago. That higher pricing has naturally led to reductions in loan volume. However, the net earnings result is expected to be positive. We plan to maintain this conservative posture until we see sustained improvement in the macro environment.

2023 年全年淨利為 6.41 億美元。 C&I 調整後每股攤薄收益為 5.43 美元，資本產生為 7.94 億美元。應收帳款的資本產生報酬率略低於 4%。全年管理應收帳款達 222 億美元，比去年同期增加 15 億美元，即 7%。由於我們繼續收緊承保並對新發行保持保守態度，第四季度發行量年減 13%。我們的緊縮政策的一部分是透過我們全年採取的定價行動來實現的。目前我們貸款發放的平均年利率約為 27%，而一年前為 26%。更高的定價自然導致貸款量減少。然而，淨利潤結果預計為正。我們計劃保持這種保守態度，直到看到宏觀環境持續改善。

Interest income was $1.2 billion, up 6% year-over-year, driven by higher average receivables and partially offset by modestly lower yield. Yield in the fourth quarter was 22.1% versus 22.3% in the prior year quarter as our pricing actions partially offset the impacts of what continues to be a challenging credit environment. Receivables from our auto finance business impacted yield by approximately 20 basis points in the fourth quarter. As we discussed in early December at Investor Day, the auto finance market is 5x larger than the personal loan market and will be a significant growth product for us in the coming years.

利息收入為 12 億美元，年增 6%，主要受到平均應收帳款增加的推動，但部分被收益率小幅下降所抵銷。第四季的收益率為 22.1%，而去年同期為 22.3%，因為我們的定價行動部分抵消了持續充滿挑戰的信貸環境的影響。我們的汽車金融業務的應收帳款對第四季度的收益率產生了約 20 個基點的影響。正如我們在 12 月初的投資者日討論的那樣，汽車金融市場比個人貸款市場大 5 倍，並且將成為我們未來幾年的重要成長產品。

While auto has lower pricing, it also brings a stable lower loss profile and attractive risk-adjusted returns. Interest expense for the quarter was $271 million, up $41 million versus the prior year driven by an increase in average debt to support receivables growth as well as a higher cost of funds. Interest expense as a percentage of receivables in 2023 was 4.9% up just 30 basis points from 4.6% in 2022 despite the considerable increase we saw in benchmark rates over the past 2 years.

雖然汽車的定價較低，但它也帶來了穩定的較低損失狀況和有吸引力的風險調整回報。本季利息支出為 2.71 億美元，比上年增加 4,100 萬美元，原因是平均債務增加以支持應收帳款成長以及資金成本上升。儘管過去兩年基準利率大幅上升，但 2023 年利息支出佔應收帳款的百分比為 4.9%，僅比 2022 年的 4.6% 上升了 30 個基點。

Fourth quarter interest expense of 5.0% was impacted by the excess cash we've been carrying on our balance sheet. Excluding these impacts, interest expense would have been around 4.8%. Looking ahead, over 90% of our average debt for 2024 is on the books today at fixed rates. So we're confident in projecting a very manageable increase in interest expense in the year ahead with an estimate of approximately 5.2% for 2024. Other revenue was $185 million, up $17 million or 10% from the prior year quarter. The increase was primarily driven by our excess cash balances as well as the higher interest we're earning on our cash.

第四季利息支出為 5.0%，這是受到我們資產負債表上過多現金的影響。排除這些影響，利息支出約為 4.8%。展望未來，我們 2024 年平均債務的 90% 以上均以固定利率記入帳簿。因此，我們有信心預計未來一年的利息支出成長將非常可控，預計 2024 年約為 5.2%。其他收入為 1.85 億美元，比去年同期成長 1,700 萬美元，增幅為 10%。這一增長主要是由於我們的現金餘額過多以及我們從現金中賺取的利息增加所致。

Provision expense for the quarter was $446 million, comprising current period net charge-offs of $415 million and a $31 million increase to our allowance which was driven by growth in receivables. Our allowance ratio was flat to the third quarter at 11.6%. Policyholder benefits and claims expense for the quarter was $49 million, compared to $39 million in the year ago quarter. The prior year period included some nonrecurring reserve adjustments related to observed improvements in claims experience. We generally expect claims will be around $50 million per quarter in 2024.

本季撥備費用為 4.46 億美元，其中包括當期淨沖銷 4.15 億美元以及應收帳款成長推動的撥備增加 3,100 萬美元。我們的撥備比率與第三季持平，為 11.6%。本季保單持有人福利和索賠費用為 4,900 萬美元，而去年同期為 3,900 萬美元。上一年期間包括一些與觀察到的索賠經驗改善相關的非經常性準備金調整。我們普遍預計 2024 年每季的理賠金額約為 5,000 萬美元。

Let's now turn to the C&I credit trends highlighted on Slide 10. Loan net charge-offs for the quarter were 7.7% with the full year coming in at 7.4%. Recoveries were 1.1% in the quarter. While recoveries fluctuate from period to period and can be impacted by the timing of charged-off loan sales and other factors, we expect recoveries to generally remain at or above this level in 2024. 30 to 89 delinquency at December 31 was 3.28% and 90-plus delinquency finished the quarter at 2.88%. Delinquency remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by our back book. While continuing to run off, our back book still represented 57% of our delinquent receivables at year-end. Our front book is performing well and is continuing to grow, but at a slower pace due to our tighter credit box and pricing actions. This has created a growth map dynamic in our delinquency and our loss metrics. In fact, the 21 basis point year-over-year increase in our 30 to 89 delinquency is entirely driven by the slowdown in our originations.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 10 中突出顯示的 C&I 信貸趨勢。該季度的貸款淨沖銷率為 7.7%，全年為 7.4%。本季回收率為 1.1%。雖然回收率隨時期波動，並可能受到沖銷貸款銷售時間和其他因素的影響，但我們預計2024 年回收率將總體保持在這一水平或以上。截至12 月31 日，拖欠率30 至89 分別為3.28% 和90 -加上拖欠率，本季結束時為 2.88%。相對於疫情前的水平，拖欠率仍然較高，這主要是由我們的回帳推動的。儘管持續流失，我們的欠帳仍佔年底拖欠應收帳款的 57%。我們的前台表現良好，並持續成長，但由於我們收緊信貸額度和定價行動，成長速度較慢。這在我們的拖欠和損失指標中創建了動態成長圖。事實上，我們的拖欠率從 30 家增加到 89 家，比去年同期增加了 21 個基點，這完全是由於我們的貸款發放速度放緩所致。

To explain this a little further, newer origination vintages carry relatively low delinquency levels. For instance, the 30 to 89 delinquency you would expect to see at year-end for loans originated in the last 6 months is around 1%. So when you reduce the pace of new vintages as we've done in 2023, the overall portfolio will skew to a greater mix of older, higher delinquency receivables.

為了進一步解釋這一點，較新的原產年份的拖欠率相對較低。例如，過去 6 個月發放的貸款，您預計在年底時會看到 30 至 89 筆拖欠率約為 1%。因此，當您像我們在 2023 年所做的那樣減少新年份的步伐時，整體投資組合將傾向於更多舊的、拖欠率較高的應收帳款。

Importantly, as Doug mentioned earlier, we like the performance of loans we're booking today and assuming a stable macro environment, our losses are expected to peak in 2024 as the back book runs down and the better front book continues to grow. Turning to Slide 13. C&I operating expenses were $382 million in the quarter, up 4% year-over-year driven by our investments in technology, data science and growth in our new products. Our OpEx ratio was 6.8% in the fourth quarter. And for the full year, it was 7.0%, reflecting our disciplined expense management and the operating leverage inherent in our business.

重要的是，正如道格之前提到的，我們喜歡今天預訂的貸款表現，並假設宏觀環境穩定，隨著後台賬簿的減少和更好的前台賬簿的繼續增長，我們的損失預計將在2024 年達到峰值。轉向投影片 13。本季工商業營運支出為 3.82 億美元，年增 4%，這得益於我們對技術、數據科學的投資以及新產品的成長。第四季我們的營運支出率為 6.8%。全年的成長率為 7.0%，反映了我們嚴格的費用管理和業務固有的營運槓桿。

We expect the OpEx ratio to improve again in 2024 to approximately 6.7%. As Doug noted earlier, there are a set of cost savings initiatives we are currently driving across the organization. Growth in new products, the pending acquisition of Foursight and the marginal cost structure of our personal loan business will also contribute to operating efficiency improvements. Let's now turn to Slide 14. We had another strong quarter of funding and balance sheet management. We completed 2 separate unsecured bond deals. The first was a $400 million add-on to the 2029 bond that we issued back in June. Note this bond is callable starting in 2025. In December, we issued a new $700 million bond at [7% and 7.8%] due in 2030 and callable starting in 2026. Both bonds were well oversubscribed with strong demand from both new and returning investors.

我們預計營運支出比率將在 2024 年再次改善至 6.7% 左右。正如道格先前指出的，我們目前正在整個組織內推行一系列成本節約措施。新產品的成長、即將收購的 Foursight 以及我們個人貸款業務的邊際成本結構也將有助於營運效率的提高。現在讓我們轉向投影片 14。我們的融資和資產負債表管理又經歷了一個強勁的季度。我們完成了兩筆獨立的無擔保債券交易。第一個是我們在 6 月發行的 2029 年債券的基礎上追加了 4 億美元。請注意，該債券可從2025 年開始贖回。去年12 月，我們以[7% 和7.8%] 的價格發行了7 億美元的新債券，將於2030 年到期，並可從2026 年開始贖回。這兩種債券都獲得了超額認購，新投資者和回歸投資者的需求都很強勁。

In the quarter, we redeemed what remained of our March 2024 unsecured maturity, our next unsecured maturity is now March of 2025. We also ended the year with $1 billion of cash on our balance sheet, setting ourselves up for significant funding flexibility in 2024. Our liquidity profile is a differentiating strength of the company. And during the fourth quarter, we added $300 million of capacity with $75 million in our unsecured revolver and $225 million in our secured facilities. Our bank facilities totaled $7.7 billion across 16 diverse bank partners with unencumbered receivables ending the quarter at $8.4 billion. Wrapping up the balance sheet, our net leverage at the end of 2023 was 5.3x down from 5.5x a year ago.

在本季度，我們贖回了2024 年3 月剩餘的無擔保到期日，我們的下一個無擔保到期日是2025 年3 月。年底，我們的資產負債表上還有10 億美元的現金，為2024 年實現顯著的融資靈活性做好了準備。我們的流動性狀況是公司的差異化優勢。在第四季度，我們增加了 3 億美元的產能，其中 7,500 萬美元用於無擔保左輪手槍，2.25 億美元用於受擔保設施。我們向 16 個不同的銀行合作夥伴提供的銀行授信總額為 77 億美元，本季末的未支配應收帳款為 84 億美元。總結資產負債表，2023 年底我們的淨槓桿比率從一年前的 5.5 倍下降到 5.3 倍。

Let's now turn to Slide 16 and review our 2024 priorities. Let me first note that all financial metrics for 2024 reflect the expected first quarter closing of the Foursight acquisition. We are projecting 2024 managed receivables of approximately $24 billion with strong contributions from auto finance and credit card. Our estimates reflect the continued conservative credit posture that results in organic receivables growth of 3% to 5% as we focus on originating loans and cards that even if the macro environment were to worsen, we'll still meet our return thresholds.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 16 並回顧我們的 2024 年優先事項。首先我要指出的是，2024 年的所有財務指標都反映了 Foursight 收購的預期第一季完成情況。我們預計 2024 年管理的應收帳款將達到約 240 億美元，其中汽車金融和信用卡的貢獻強勁。我們的估計反映了持續保守的信貸態勢，導致應收帳款有機成長 3% 至 5%，因為我們專注於發放貸款和信用卡，即使宏觀環境惡化，我們仍將達到回報門檻。

Note, the estimate also includes approximately $1 billion of acquired receivables from Foursight. 2024 revenue growth is expected to be 6% to 8%, this includes both interest income and on the revenue and is driven by our expected receivables growth, a modest improvement in yield from our 2023 pricing actions as well as contributions from Foursight. Interest expense is expected to be approximately 5.2% in 2024, illustrating the structural advantages in our balance sheet and our ability to shelter the impact of higher current funding rates. Full year consolidated net charge-offs are expected to be within a range of 7.7% to 8.3%. Please bear in mind this includes all products, personal loans, auto finance and credit cards and also reflects the growth math I discussed earlier. As we've noted, we expect losses to peak in 2024, and we expect to see normal seasonal patterns during the year with higher net charge-offs in the first half and lower net charge-offs in the second.

請注意，該估算還包括從 Foursight 收購的約 10 億美元的應收帳款。 2024 年收入成長預計為 6% 至 8%，其中包括利息收入和收入，並受到我們預期的應收帳款成長、我們 2023 年定價行動帶來的收益率適度改善以及 Foursight 的貢獻的推動。 2024 年利息支出預計約為 5.2%，這說明我們資產負債表的結構性優勢以及我們抵禦當前融資利率較高影響的能力。全年綜合淨沖銷預計將在 7.7% 至 8.3% 的範圍內。請記住，這包括所有產品、個人貸款、汽車金融和信用卡，也反映了我之前討論的成長數學。正如我們所指出的，我們預計損失將在 2024 年達到峰值，並且我們預計年內會出現正常的季節性模式，上半年淨沖銷較高，下半年淨沖銷較低。

As previously discussed, we expect our full year 2024 operating expense ratio to improve from 7.0% to around 6.7%. At Investor Day in December, we laid out a medium-term path to $30 billion in receivables and a 5% capital generation return on receivables with charge-offs normalizing down to our strategic range of 6% to 7%. We are navigating the economic climate with great care, but at the same time, building the foundation for our future and we remain very confident we will achieve these objectives.

如前所述，我們預計 2024 年全年營運費用率將從 7.0% 改善至 6.7% 左右。在12 月的投資者日上，我們制定了一條中期路徑，應收帳款規模達到300 億美元，應收帳款資本產生回報率為5%，沖銷正常化至6% 至7% 的策略範圍。我們正在非常謹慎地應對經濟形勢，但同時也為我們的未來奠定基礎，我們仍然對實現這些目標充滿信心。

Let me now turn the call back over to Doug.

現在讓我把電話轉回給道格。

Thanks, Micah. Hopefully, you will take away from our comments that we are confident about our competitive positioning, feel very good about our current underwriting posture and the management of our credit box and are optimistic about the opportunities ahead. We remain well positioned to grow once the environment becomes less uncertain. With best-in-class underwriting, a unique business model, a fortress balance sheet and expanding product set with a bigger addressable market and all of the differentiating factors we laid out at our Investor Day 2 months ago.

謝謝，米迦。希望您能從我們的評論中了解到，我們對我們的競爭地位充滿信心，對我們當前的承保狀況和信用箱的管理感到非常滿意，並對未來的機會感到樂觀。一旦環境變得不那麼不確定，我們仍將保持良好的成長動能。憑藉一流的承銷、獨特的商業模式、堡壘式的資產負債表和不斷擴大的產品組合以及更大的潛在市場，以及我們在兩個月前的投資者日上列出的所有差異化因素。

Most importantly, we remain highly committed to being the lender of choice to the nonprime consumer, helping our customers meet their credit needs today, but also helping them progress to a better financial future. Let me end by thanking all the OneMain team members for their dedication and hard work throughout 2023, and their continued commitment to our customers each and every day.

最重要的是，我們仍然高度致力於成為非優質消費者的首選貸款人，幫助我們的客戶滿足他們今天的信貸需求，同時幫助他們邁向更美好的財務未來。最後，我要感謝所有 OneMain 團隊成員在 2023 年的奉獻和辛勤工作，以及他們每天對客戶的持續承諾。

With that, let me open it up for questions.

接下來，讓我開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question is coming from Vincent Caintic with Stephens.

我們的第一個問題來自文森特凱恩蒂克和史蒂芬斯。

I guess first question, if you wouldn't mind elaborating on that portfolio growth, mass dynamics, I guess, how does the pace of originations and that mix shift between the front and the back book effect, how we should be thinking about the delinquencies and losses playing out over 2024.

我想第一個問題，如果你不介意詳細說明投資組合的成長、大眾動態，我想，發起的步伐以及前後書效應之間的混合如何變化，我們應該如何考慮拖欠以及 2024 年的損失。

Thanks for the question. I appreciate you joining us. I think you hit it right. This is definitely more about the timing of new originations. We think this is an important concept. We wanted to share with you guys how we analyze the portfolio at a granular level. We also wanted to -- I think it's important to understand why we feel good that the credit performance that we're seeing in the portfolio is moving in the right direction.

謝謝你的提問。我很感謝你加入我們。我認為你說得對。這絕對更與新產品誕生的時間有關。我們認為這是一個重要的概念。我們想與大家分享我們如何詳細分析投資組合。我們也想——我認為重要的是要理解為什麼我們對投資組合中看到的信貸表現正在朝著正確的方向發展感到滿意。

I touched on it a little bit in the prepared remarks, but I can lay it out a little bit further. Second half originations this year were, as we showed, 10% below the second half of '22. So we're down 8% in the third quarter relative to the prior year period, down 13% in the fourth quarter. So it's, of course, due to our continued tightening and our pricing actions we've taken throughout the year. So what that results in is second half originations in 2023 making up just 27% of our year-end receivables. If you compare that to a year ago, that was 32%. Meaning second half originations in '22 made up 32% of our portfolio. So you can really see the impact there of our tightening that we've done this year.

我在準備好的發言中稍微談到了這一點，但我可以進一步闡述。正如我們所顯示的，今年下半年的啟動量比 22 年下半年低 10%。因此，第三季與去年同期相比下降了 8%，第四季下降了 13%。當然，這是由於我們全年持續採取的緊縮政策和定價行動。因此，2023 年下半年的應收帳款僅占我們年終應收帳款的 27%。如果與一年前相比，這一數字為 32%。這意味著 22 年下半年的產品占我們投資組合的 32%。因此，您可以真正看到我們今年採取的緊縮措施所產生的影響。

The 30 to 89 delinquency rate that you'd expect to see at year-end for loans originated in the second half is about 1%. The rest of the portfolio has a delinquency rate closer to 4. So when you blend that together, you get to our total 30 to 89 delinquency. The takeaway here is that nothing's changed in the relative performance of our vintages and loans within our receivables base. We've just seen a mix shift with a greater percentage of our current portfolio coming from the older originations as a result of this slowing down. Again, purpose of this whole discussion is really to reinforce our commentary that we think credit is moving in the right direction. And if you just look at the 30 to 89 year-over-year, it's not necessarily that evident.

對於下半年發放的貸款，您預計年底的拖欠率為 30 至 89，約為 1%。投資組合的其餘部分的拖欠率接近 4。因此，當您將其混合在一起時，我們的拖欠率總數為 30 到 89。這裡的要點是，我們的應收帳款基礎內的年份和貸款的相對錶現沒有任何變化。由於這種放緩，我們剛剛看到了一種混合轉變，我們目前的投資組合中有更大比例來自較舊的起源。再說一遍，整個討論的目的實際上是為了強化我們的評論，即我們認為信貸正在朝著正確的方向發展。如果你只看同比 30 到 89 的數字，那就不一定那麼明顯了。

That's very helpful detail. And I guess just a follow-up on that. When we think about that 2024 guidance, if you can explain the different assumptions between the NCO ranges. So when you think about that low end of 7.7% versus that high end of 8.3%.

這是非常有用的細節。我想這只是後續行動。當我們考慮 2024 年指導時，您是否可以解釋 NCO 範圍之間的不同假設。因此，當你考慮 7.7% 的低端與 8.3% 的高端。

So I mean that's obviously a little bit -- with delinquency, we know exactly what that mix shift is. Certainly growth math and our slowdown will be a part of our loss guide -- growth math and the pace of originations certainly is always present in any of these credit performance numbers. The 7.7% to 8.3%, I would say, certainly, our pace of growth will influence where that number ultimately ends. Of course, the just natural performance of loans within the portfolio. So does the back book continue to perform the same way that we've seen it perform over the last few years, same with the front book. So those variations in our loss rate are accommodate for that as we've talked about and set in our prepared remarks and also in our presentation, we do anticipate seeing peak losses in 2024. So within that 7.7% to 8.3% guide, we also anticipate seeing normal seasonal patterns, so that's higher in the first half and lower in the second.

所以我的意思是，這顯然是一點點——對於拖欠行為，我們確切地知道這種混合轉變是什麼。當然，成長數學和我們的放緩將成為我們損失指南的一部分——成長數學和起源速度肯定總是存在於任何這些信貸績效數據中。我想說，7.7% 到 8.3% 的成長速度肯定會影響這個數字的最終結果。當然，投資組合中貸款的自然表現。那麼，封底書的表現是否會繼續與我們過去幾年看到的表現相同，與封面書一樣。因此，我們損失率的這些變化是適應這一點的，正如我們在準備好的評論和演示中所討論和設定的那樣，我們確實預計2024 年會出現損失峰值。因此，在7.7% 至8.3%的指引範圍內，我們也預期會看到正常的季節性模式，因此上半年較高，下半年較低。

Our next question comes from Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。

Look, essentially, the guidance suggests that charge-offs are going to hit a 10-year peak in the first half of this year and then start to receive. I'm curious how we should think about reserves, which are already reflecting that. Will your reserve rates start to come down before losses peak and ultimately, as you go back to sort of a normal loss rate, more in line with your long-term targets, what do you think the reserve rate will be?

從本質上看，指導意見表明，沖銷將在今年上半年達到 10 年來的峰值，然後開始增加。我很好奇我們應該如何考慮儲備，這已經反映了這一點。您的準備金率會在損失達到頂峰之前開始下降嗎？最終，當您回到正常的損失率時，更符合您的長期目標，您認為準備金率會是多少？

I think in terms of the timing of when the reserve will move around, it's a little tricky to call reserves are less sensitive to the periodic charge-offs than they are the delinquency levels and the expectations for the future. As we talked about before, CECL is a very elaborate model, a lot of inputs and assumptions. And it's also important to remember that it's a lifetime model. So we expect the majority of our first half losses, which, as we talked about, are going to be elevated relative to second half. Both because of seasonal trends but also because the majority of those first half losses are going to be coming from the underperforming back book, which is still 57% of our delinquent receivables at the end of fourth quarter. And these loss expectations have been reserved for and been included in our model for quite some time, as you pointed out.

我認為，就準備金移動的時間而言，要說準備金對定期沖銷的敏感度不如對拖欠水平和對未來的預期的敏感度，有點棘手。正如我們之前談到的，CECL 是一個非常複雜的模型，有許多輸入和假設。同樣重要的是要記住，它是終身型號。因此，我們預計上半年的大部分虧損，正如我們所說，相對於下半年將會上升。一方面是因為季節性趨勢，另一方面是因為上半年的大部分損失將來自表現不佳的欠賬，截至第四季度末，欠賬仍占我們拖欠應收賬款的 57%。正如您所指出的，這些損失預期已經保留並包含在我們的模型中相當長一段時間了。

The front book is performing well, continuing to perform the way we like it and in line with expectations. That made up 65% of our receivables at year-end, and that's going to be what really drives most of the lifetime losses expected under CECL, given that it is that lifetime model that goes far beyond 2024. So again, there's some puts and takes there. I think as we see this transition continue to take place in our portfolio, we see delinquency levels start to move down. And then, of course, our expectations of the macro environment going forward are also part of that model. That's when we'll start to see the model move itself in the right direction.

前書表現良好，繼續以我們喜歡的方式表現並符合預期。這占我們年底應收帳款的 65%，這將是 CECL 預期的大部分終身損失的真正驅動因素，因為這種終身模型的影響遠遠超過 2024 年。因此，同樣，有一些看跌期權和帶到那裡。我認為，當我們看到這種轉變在我們的投資組合中繼續發生時，我們就會看到拖欠水準開始下降。當然，我們對未來宏觀環境的預期也是該模型的一部分。那時我們將開始看到模型朝著正確的方向發展。

It's hard to say exactly where that lands. A lot of this is a mix shift in the portfolio. We've got cards now. We've got an auto book that's growing, but if you go back to the original days of CECL in early 2020, relatively benign environment, we were around 10.7%. So I can certainly see us getting back to 11 context over time. I think another way to look at it is our allowance ratio today is 11.6%, and we think about 60 basis points of that is due to our macro overlay. So I think all of this triangulates around the general area of about 11% is kind of a normal good environment CECL reserve for us.

很難確切地說出它落在哪裡。其中很大一部分是投資組合的混合轉變。現在我們已經拿到卡片了。我們的汽車書籍正在成長，但如果你回到 2020 年初 CECL 最初的日子，相對良性的環境，我們的比例約為 10.7%。所以我當然可以看到隨著時間的推移我們會回到 11 背景。我認為另一種看待它的方式是我們今天的準備率是11.6%，我們認為其中大約60個基點是由於我們的宏觀疊加所致。因此，我認為圍繞約 11% 的總體面積進行的所有三角測量是 CECL 為我們保留的正常良好環境。

We'll take our next question from Michael Kaye with Wells Fargo.

我們將接受富國銀行麥可凱提出的下一個問題。

The year-over-year decline in originations, it's accelerating. You mentioned little bit tightened underwriting that the pricing actions. But I'm trying to understand, I think, how much of origination volume are you leaving on the table from these actions, particularly on the core personal loan product. And if you do decide to ramp up again, how much does marketing need to increase to get the origination engine really fully hung again?

發源量逐年下降，而且還在加速。您提到定價行動稍微收緊了承保。但我想，我想了解，這些行動將給你多少原始資金，特別是在核心個人貸款產品上。如果您確實決定再次加大力度，那麼行銷需要增加多少才能讓原創引擎真正再次完全掛起？

Good to hear from you. As I said in -- earlier in the call, we're just taking a conservative posture right now on credit. There's still a fair amount of uncertainty in the macro environment and a fair number of cross currents. Unemployment is a bright spot, but some people can't get as many hours as they had and some people are losing jobs even though the overall picture is good.

很高興聽到你的消息。正如我在電話會議早些時候所說的那樣，我們現在只是在信貸方面採取保守立場。宏觀環境仍存在一定的不確定性，矛盾也不少。失業是一個亮點，但儘管總體情況良好，但有些人無法獲得盡可能多的工作時間，有些人正在失業。

Inflation, while it's moderated, is still impacting customers because prices remain elevated, even though they're not growing as much year-over-year. And then we've still got interest rates. So there's still just a bunch of cross currents in the environment. I also mentioned and Micah mentioned, we really like the performance of our recent vintages. So where the box is now is we're booking really good business. And it's a really good competitive environment. So we're still able to pick our spots and book good business where it is. We often talk about a tightened credit box, but I'll just repeat what I've said before. There is no big credit box. It's very, very granular by state, by the risk of a customer, by the product that they choose or we offer them by the channel that it comes in. And so we are cutting the credit box more than we're opening, but we're doing some of both all the time on a very granular level. The net is cutting.

通貨膨脹雖然有所緩和，但仍對客戶產生影響，因為價格仍居高不下，儘管價格年增幅度不大。然後我們仍然有利率。因此，環境中仍存在大量交叉流。我還提到過，麥卡也提到過，我們真的很喜歡最近年份的表現。所以現在盒子所在的位置是我們正在預訂非常好的業務。這是一個非常好的競爭環境。因此，我們仍然可以選擇地點並在適當的地方預訂良好的業務。我們經常談論收緊信貸，但我只想重複我之前說過的話。沒有大的信用箱。根據州、客戶的風險、他們選擇的產品或我們透過產品進入的管道向他們提供的產品，它的粒度非常非常細。因此，我們削減的信用額度比我們開放的要多，但我們我們一直在在非常精細的層面上做這兩件事。網正在切割。

We also have what we call weather vein. So we're always booking a small amount of business right below our credit cutoff. So we can see how that performs and get a sense if we're, like you said, leaving money on the table. I think the punchline is there's a decent chance we're leaving money on the table right now, but we're being conservative, and we take being stewards of our shareholders' capital very seriously. And when we're ready to ramp up, I don't think it's going to take a big turnaround. We already have our marketing. We've got direct mail campaigns. We've got e-mail campaigns. We've got affiliate channels and partners. We now have auto dealers where we can have different things happening. We've got a lot of social media and digital. And so all those levers are still running at different levels, so it would be pretty easy for us to ramp it back up.

我們還有所謂的天氣脈。因此，我們總是在低於我們的信用額度的情況下預訂少量業務。因此，我們可以看看它的表現如何，並了解我們是否像您所說的那樣，把錢留在桌面上。我認為最重要的是，我們現在很有可能把錢留在桌面上，但我們很保守，而且我們非常認真地對待股東資本的管家。當我們準備好加速時，我認為不會有重大轉變。我們已經有了我們的行銷。我們有直郵活動。我們開展了電子郵件活動。我們有聯屬管道和合作夥伴。我們現在有了汽車經銷商，在那裡我們可以發生不同的事情。我們有很多社交媒體和數位媒體。因此，所有這些槓桿仍然在不同的水平上運行，因此我們很容易將其恢復。

What I will say is we still have very strong demand because of the competitive environment. We've been in the market. People like our product. And so we still have -- we could be booking more business today if we wanted. We're just choosing not to.

我要說的是，由於競爭環境，我們仍然有非常強勁的需求。我們一直在市場上。人們喜歡我們的產品。因此，如果我們願意，我們今天仍然可以預訂更多業務。我們只是選擇不這樣做。

Second question, I apologize if I missed this, but the $1 billion of loans you're acquiring from Foursight. I don't know if Micah had mentioned, but what's the initial reserving look like on that? Is that going to hit the C&I segment? Or is that going to go through GAAP separately?

第二個問題，如果我錯過了這個問題，我深表歉意，但您從 Foursight 獲得了 10 億美元的貸款。我不知道 Micah 是否提到過，但最初的預訂是什麼樣的？這會衝擊工商業領域嗎？還是要單獨通過公認會計原則（GAAP）？

Michael, unfortunately, I've been around since the OneMain acquisition, so I kind of have a good sense for how this is going to work. We'll handle it the same way, which is to preserve within our C&I reporting the historical method of accounting. And I think that works really well because it allows all of us to see the actual real performance that Foursight will contribute. There's a lot of noise that comes out of purchase accounting, as you know. We will hold all of that purchase accounting below C&I. So we'll give you transparency to it, of course, but it is really all about timing and recognition of earnings.

Michael，不幸的是，自從 OneMain 被收購以來我就一直在公司工作，所以我對這將如何運作有很好的了解。我們將以同樣的方式處理它，即在我們的 C&I 報告中保留歷史會計方法。我認為這非常有效，因為它讓我們所有人都能看到 Foursight 將貢獻的實際表現。如您所知，採購會計會產生很多噪音。我們將把所有採購會計核算低於 C&I。當然，我們會向您提供透明度，但這實際上完全取決於收益的時機和確認。

And so both our marks and adjustments to the balance sheet that will accrete or amortize over time associated with acquiring that balance sheet will move through outside of the segment outside of or the area outside of C&I as well, what I'll call, the day 2 CECL reserve, which is what you're referring to. The gap still requires you to book that day to CECL reserve on a portion of the acquired portfolio, I don't want to get into too many specifics. We will hold that outside of C&I again because it's going to accrete up over time based on the runoff of those receivables. And so there's some accounting moving through the FASB to eliminate that concept. But for now, it still exists, but we're going to keep that pure for you and outside of the C&I numbers.

因此，我們對資產負債表的標記和調整將隨著時間的推移而增加或攤銷，這些與獲取該資產負債表相關的費用將轉移到C&I 之外的部門或區域之外，我稱之為當天2 CECL儲備，這就是你所指的。這個差距仍然需要您在當天向 CECL 預訂所收購投資組合的一部分，我不想透露太多細節。我們將再次將其保留在商業與工業之外，因為它會根據這些應收帳款的徑流隨著時間的推移而增加。因此，美國財務會計準則委員會正在採取一些會計措施來消除這個概念。但就目前而言，它仍然存在，但我們將在 C&I 數據之外為您保持純淨。

But I mean how -- I mean you have $1 billion of loans coming on the balance sheet. I mean what should we assume the allowance goes up to account for that. If we assume nothing and your allowance ratio is going to have a pretty big drop. Is it like fair...

但我的意思是——我的意思是你的資產負債表上有 10 億美元的貸款。我的意思是我們應該假設津貼增加以解釋這一點。如果我們什麼都不假設，你的津貼率將會大幅下降。公平嗎...

Again, Michael, we will basically assume that the opening balance sheet for C&I purposes associated with Foursight, those balances will already exist for the C&I purpose. So they will be in our CECL reserve. We're just going to have to make an adjustment to the starting point for you. It's not going to run through earnings like that.

Michael，我們基本上會假設與 Foursight 相關的用於 C&I 目的的期初資產負債表，這些餘額已經存在用於 C&I 目的。所以它們將屬於我們的 CECL 儲備。我們只需為您調整起點即可。它不會透過這樣的收益來運作。

Yes. Okay. Got it.

是的。好的。知道了。

Remember, the balance sheet concept is really only at a total GAAP level. So we'll make the adjustment. You should feel comfortable, and we'll certainly be able to walk you through the math of that.

請記住，資產負債表概念實際上僅適用於整體 GAAP 水準。所以我們會做出調整。您應該感到舒服，我們一定能夠引導您完成數學計算。

But how much of the adjustment is going to be? Is it fair to assume, let's say, mid-single digits percent of the $1 billion?

但調整幅度是多少呢？假設 10 億美元中個位數的百分比是否公平？

Mike, I don't know that yet. I think that's going to be a matter of how we build this model. I will give you the data. I don't have it yet.

麥克，我還不知道。我認為這將取決於我們如何建立這個模型。我會給你數據。我還沒有。

We will take our next question from Moshe Orenbuch with TD Cowen.

我們將回答 Moshe Orenbuch 和 TD Cowen 提出的下一個問題。

Great. And I guess, first, with respect to this -- your front book, back book kind of performance you talked -- you did talk a lot about delinquencies. You alluded to the charge-off performance and difference. But is there a difference in terms of how those portfolios are rolling to charge-off from delinquency?

偉大的。我想，首先，關於這一點——你談到的前書、後書的表現——你確實談論了很多關於拖欠行為的問題。您提到了沖銷表現和差異。但這些投資組合如何從拖欠中沖銷有差異嗎？

Not particularly, Moshe. I think with our customer base, once you get a couple of payments past due, it's pretty challenging for them to move forward. I mean, we've done what we can with some of our borrower assistance tools to help customers, lower payments in the later stages of delinquency. But I would say it's more the frequency of loans running into early-stage delinquency, that is the differentiator between the front and the back.

並不特別，摩西。我認為對於我們的客戶群來說，一旦你收到幾筆逾期付款，他們就很難繼續前進。我的意思是，我們已經盡我們所能，使用一些借款人援助工具來幫助客戶，並降低拖欠後期的付款。但我想說的是，更多的是貸款陷入早期拖欠的頻率，這是前後的差異。

And Micah, would you think that would improve to the extent that as time goes on, the inflationary environment is less painful? Or is there less likely to see any improvement?

Micah，您認為隨著時間的推移，情況會有所改善，通貨膨脹環境會減輕一些痛苦嗎？或說不太可能看到任何改善？

I think that is the case. We're seeing -- particularly with like rents, for instance, rents are up significantly, has been widely reported from 2019 levels, our average rent for a customer was about $600 and now it's closer to $900. So some of those pressures are certainly causing some trouble for certain non-prime consumers and again, particularly the renter class. But if we start to see some of that come down, I think that creates certainly immediate cash flow relief for our consumers, and we'll see that impact us all throughout our delinquency metrics, whether it's entry or back end or even recoveries.

我認為是這樣的。我們看到，特別是在類似租金的情況下，租金大幅上漲，據廣泛報道，自 2019 年以來，我們為客戶提供的平均租金約為 600 美元，現在接近 900 美元。因此，其中一些壓力肯定會給某些非優質消費者帶來一些麻煩，尤其是租屋階層。但如果我們開始看到其中一些下降，我認為這肯定會立即為我們的消費者帶來現金流緩解，我們將看到這對我們所有人的拖欠指標產生影響，無論是入口還是後端，甚至是回收。

Yes. And just last one for me, and that is the growth expectations, it's -- and you've addressed this to some extent. And despite the fact that you say that it is a very favorable environment, the growth expectations are kind of -- kind of at the lower end of where you've been historically, particularly for the core product. Is there any way to kind of dimension like how you would think it could be better or less good than that? What sort of external factors, we would be able to see that would give us a sense as to whether you're turning that up or down a little bit.

是的。對我來說，最後一個問題是成長預期，您已經在某種程度上解決了這個問題。儘管你說這是一個非常有利的環境，但成長預期有點處於歷史低端，特別是對於核心產品而言。有沒有什麼方法可以像你認為的那樣更好或更差？我們能夠看到什麼樣的外部因素可以讓我們了解您是否將其調高或調低一點。

Yes. Look, Moshe, I've said over and over, growth is an output. We're going to make sure we book business with customers that we think can be successful, which means they pay us back and they keep good credit. And we're going to err on the side of conservative. I mean, the factors that drive it is 1, our marketing, do we reach the right people; 2 is our value proposition. And I think we have now really honed our value proposition around secured loans, unsecured loans, smaller dollar loans, 2 types of card, fee card with a smaller line and no fee card and now we've got auto distribution to add to the channel. So we've got a range of products we can offer.

是的。聽著，摩西，我已經說過一遍又一遍，成長是一種產出。我們將確保與我們認為可以成功的客戶預訂業務，這意味著他們會償還我們的款項並保持良好的信用。我們會犯下保守的錯誤。我的意思是，推動它的因素是 1，我們的行銷，我們是否接觸到了合適的人； 2是我們的價值主張。我認為我們現在已經真正磨練了圍繞擔保貸款、無擔保貸款、小額美元貸款、兩種類型的卡、線路較小的收費卡和無收費卡的價值主張，現在我們已經將自動分銷添加到渠道中。因此，我們可以提供一系列產品。

Then there's the customer experience when someone actually comes, what's it like, either talking to one of our team members interacting digitally, and we've done a lot of investment around that, and we think we're really well positioned. And then the overriding factor of that is our credit box. We've now for a while, had a credit box that has the models we run, which is our historical performance, what we're seeing with delinquency, and again, it's not just one credit box, it's the type of customer, the channel they come in, have they done business with us before, the state they're in because we can do different pricing. But right now, we have a macro overlay of an extra 30% stress. So all things being equal, we're basically saying we're only going to book business if credit gets 30% worse than we think it's going to get because we want to be conservative.

然後是當有人真正到來時的客戶體驗，它是什麼樣的，或者與我們的一位團隊成員進行數位交互，我們已經為此做了很多投資，我們認為我們的定位非常好。其中最重要的因素是我們的信用箱。我們已經有一段時間了，有一個信用箱，裡面有我們運行的模型，這是我們的歷史表現，我們所看到的拖欠情況，再說一遍，這不僅僅是一個信用箱，它是客戶的類型，他們進入的管道，他們以前是否與我們做過生意，他們所處的狀態，因為我們可以採取不同的定價。但現在，我們有額外 30% 壓力的宏觀疊加。因此，在所有條件相同的情況下，我們基本上是說，只有當信用狀況比我們想像的差 30% 時，我們才會預訂業務，因為我們希望保持保守。

I think what we'll see is depending on -- we'll see payments coming in, we'll see the credit results, we'll see what's happening with our weather vein. And we'll also see what's happening externally with the macro. What's happening with employment, what's happening with inflation or interest rates coming down and our people spending more. There's all the external macro. So we're running it very tightly, but right now, we're taking a conservative posture because even though all the economic indicators, when you read the papers, and turn on CNBC, everyone thinks the economy is great. It's not so great for every person in the country and the less money you have, the tighter it is for you. And so that's why we're running things very conservatively right now.

我認為我們將看到的情況取決於——我們將看到付款的到來，我們將看到信用結果，我們將看到我們的天氣狀況發生了什麼。我們也將了解巨集外部發生的情況。就業發生了什麼，通貨膨脹或利率下降以及我們的人民支出增加發生了什麼。這裡有所有外部宏。因此，我們的運作非常嚴格，但現在我們採取保守的態度，因為即使所有的經濟指標，當你閱讀報紙並打開 CNBC 時，每個人都認為經濟狀況良好。這對這個國家的每個人來說並不是那麼好，而且你的錢越少，對你來說就越緊。這就是為什麼我們現在非常保守地運作。

But let me just add. At the end, we are booking great business. And the business we're booking today, we feel really good about. And so what we're encouraged about is we talk about it as our front book or our newer vintages that is business that is meeting our historical return threshold that is -- the credit is trending more towards historical norms, which gives us a lot of confidence that we can keep booking that business incrementally. Hopefully, we'll be able to book more as some of those factors play. But whenever the economy turns, we're going to be really positioned for growth.

但讓我補充一下。最後，我們預訂了很棒的生意。我們今天預訂的業務，我們感覺非常好。因此，我們受到鼓勵的是，我們將其作為我們的頭版或新年份來討論，即滿足我們歷史回報閾值的業務，即信貸正趨向於歷史規範，這給了我們很多我們相信我們可以繼續增量預訂該業務。希望隨著其中一些因素的影響，我們能夠預訂更多。但每當經濟出現轉變時，我們就會真正做好成長的準備。

We'll take our next question from Terry Ma with Barclays.

我們將接受巴克萊銀行馬特里 (Terry Ma) 提出的下一個問題。

Can you maybe just talk about your confidence level and time frame for kind of drifting back to that target underwriting loss range of 6% to 7%. Is that a 2025 event or kind of like post 2025?

您能否談談您的信心程度和時間框架，以恢復到 6% 至 7% 的目標承保損失範圍。這是 2025 年的事件還是 2025 年後的事件？

Good question, Terry. It's a very difficult one to pinpoint. I think we're focused on 2024. We know that the book we're underwriting today from a front book perspective, we know that those balances are tracking to an expected loss in that 6% to 7% time frame. So a lot of this is going to be determined as to how quickly that back book becomes the majority or the lion's share of our delinquency and loss. So I think you're certainly 6% to 7% based on our guide for 2024, you're certainly looking at 2025 kind of event exactly when in 2025, our quarters reflect that 6% to 7% is will remain to be seen. But we still feel confident that it will get there. It's just a matter of which quarter we're going to see that in.

好問題，特里。這是一個非常難以確定的問題。我認為我們的重點是 2024 年。我們知道，從前帳本的角度來看，我們今天承銷的這本書，我們知道這些餘額將在 6% 到 7% 的時間範圍內追蹤預期損失。因此，這很大程度上取決於那本舊書以多快的速度成為我們拖欠和損失的大部分或最大份額。因此，我認為根據我們2024 年的指南，您肯定會看到6% 至7%，您肯定會關注2025 年的此類事件，而在2025 年，我們的季度反映6% 至7% 仍有待觀察。但我們仍然相信它會實現這一目標。這只是我們將在哪個季度看到這一點的問題。

And if I look at your net loss guidance range of this year, that assumes stable macro, but the high end of that range is actually pretty similar to what the legacy entity realized in 2008. So can you maybe just talk about what additional actions or measures you can take if the macro were to get a lot worse?

如果我看一下你們今年的淨虧損指導範圍，假設宏觀經濟穩定，但該範圍的上限實際上與遺留實體在 2008 年實現的目標非常相似。那麼您能否談談哪些額外行動或如果宏觀形勢變得更糟，你可以採取什麼措施？

Well, I think as you just heard Doug say, even if the macro were to get worse, we're still going to be booking loans, the same loans we're booking today because we've already incorporated that expected stress in our returns. I think as it relates to the net charge-off range, certainly, I think our range is comfortable enough that we feel. We've got some movement even if the macro changes. I think when we say stable macro, it doesn't mean it's completely unchanged. It just means it has to be somewhat like it is today. And if we were to see unemployment double, for instance, I think that would be a change in the macro environment that I wouldn't call necessarily stable.

好吧，我想正如你剛剛聽到道格所說的那樣，即使宏觀經濟變得更糟，我們仍然會預訂貸款，與我們今天預訂的貸款相同，因為我們已經將預期壓力納入了我們的回報中。我認為，由於它與淨沖銷範圍有關，當然，我認為我們的範圍足以讓我們感到舒適。即使宏觀情勢發生變化，我們也會有所動作。我認為當我們說穩定的宏觀時，並不意味著它完全不變。這只是意味著它必須有點像今天。例如，如果我們看到失業率翻倍，我認為這將是宏觀環境的變化，我認為這不一定是穩定的。

So that just gives us a little bit of room. Certainly, our pace of originations, as we've talked about this concept that could move us also within that range of 7.7% to 8. 3%. So if we continue to say, tighten and reduce that denominator, we could end up at the high end of that range. If we start to grow towards the middle of the year, we can move towards the bottom end. So there's a lot of factors that go into that. But certainly, we wanted to call out that we've assumed in there that there's no large change to the macro environment within that range.

所以這只是給了我們一點空間。當然，我們的起源速度，正如我們所討論的這個概念，也可以使我們在 7.7% 到 8. 3% 的範圍內移動。因此，如果我們繼續收緊並減少分母，我們最終可能會處於該範圍的高端。如果我們在年中開始成長，我們可能會走向谷底。所以這牽涉到很多因素。但當然，我們想指出，我們假設在該範圍內宏觀環境沒有太大的變化。

We will take our next question from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America.

我們將回答美國銀行 Mihir Bhatia 提出的下一個問題。

Just wanted to -- maybe just to start, I wanted to follow up on Rick's question. Just given the credit profile of the portfolio is improving as more of the book is from the front book. Why is the allowance ratio not declining? Like has the macro assumption that was -- Like I understand your -- like your life of loan losses, right? So presumably, the front book, which has better credit profile has lower life of loan losses than the stuff that's running off from the back book. So why is the reserve ratio just stable and not improving right now?

只是想——也許只是開始，我想跟進里克的問題。考慮到投資組合的信用狀況正在改善，因為本書的更多內容來自封面。為何撥備比例沒有下降？就像宏觀假設一樣——我理解你的——比如你的貸款損失生涯，對吧？因此，據推測，信用狀況較好的正面帳本的貸款損失期限比背面帳本的貸款損失期限要短。那為什麼準備金率現在只是穩定而不改善呢？

Yes. So again, as I said earlier, CECL is a pretty elaborate model and there's a ton of assumptions in it. And it is also lifetime. And as I said, the majority of our first half losses are coming from the underperforming back book. So that is certainly part of our CECL reserves as is the losses that will come from our underperforming back book in the second half. And I also mentioned that the front book makes up 65% of our receivables. That's going to drive most of the lifetime losses. But those 2 things are sort of working against one another. We've also got a macro factor in our reserve that assumes we see continued stress. And so that macro factor is about 60 basis points on a dollar basis, it's about $140 million. And that says we're going to continue to see some stress in our portfolio.

是的。所以，正如我之前所說，CECL 是一個非常複雜的模型，其中有大量假設。而且也是一生。正如我所說，我們上半年的大部分損失都來自表現不佳的帳簿。因此，這肯定是我們的 CECL 儲備的一部分，也是我們下半年表現不佳的帳簿帶來的損失。我還提到，前台帳款占我們應收帳款的 65%。這將導致一生中大部分的損失。但這兩件事有點互相矛盾。我們的儲備中還有一個宏觀因素，假設我們看到持續的壓力。因此，宏觀因素以美元計算約為 60 個基點，即約 1.4 億美元。這表明我們的投資組合將繼續面臨一些壓力。

That is where we will -- once we start to see delinquencies come down, once we feel more confident in the macro environment, we will then feel confident in moving those reserves down. And here, I mean, I've said a number of times on these calls, I think there's we want to be really certain before we start moving reserves down that we're going to see sustained improvement. It does nobody any good for us to move those things around from quarter-to-quarter to a great degree.

這就是我們要做的事——一旦我們開始看到拖欠率下降，一旦我們對宏觀環境更有信心，我們就會有信心減少這些準備。我的意思是，我已經多次在這些電話會議上說過，我認為在我們開始減少準備金之前，我們要真正確定我們將看到持續的改善。每個季度都在很大程度上改變這些事情對我們沒有任何好處。

I appreciate that. That makes sense. Maybe just taking a step back at a higher level. Can you talk a little bit about just the competitive intensity right now? I mean it sounds like you're tightening underwriting a little bit. But like obviously, last year, you've seen a big pullback from the fintechs that used to play a lot in this space. Are you seeing them come back. How are you thinking about that over the next year? And in your guidance, do you expect the environment to continue to be similar where you have more demand than the actual stuff that you can actually book or you want to originate right now?

我很感激。這就說得通了。也許只是在更高的層面上退一步。能簡單談談目前的競爭強度嗎？我的意思是，聽起來你們正在稍微收緊承保。但顯然，去年，你已經看到過去在這個領域發揮很大作用的金融科技公司的大幅撤退。你看到他們回來了嗎？您對明年的情況有何看法？在您的指導中，您是否期望環境繼續相似，您的需求比您可以實際預訂或現在想要製作的實際東西更多？

Thanks, Mihir. Look, it's a really good competitive environment for us. What I would say is going back to '21 and early 2022, there was a ton of supply in the market, and there was a fair amount of irrational pricing, meaning people were making loans to people with high expectations of losses at 10%, which just didn't make any sense, and people lost a lot of money when that happened.

謝謝，米希爾。看，這對我們來說確實是一個很好的競爭環境。我想說的是，回到 21 世紀和 2022 年初，市場上有大量的供應，並且存在相當多的不合理定價，這意味著人們向那些對損失有 10% 高預期的人發放貸款，這沒有任何意義，當這種情況發生時，人們損失了很多錢。

In '22, early '23, a lot of our competitors just couldn't get funding. And so we had a pretty wide open market. But that shifted by mid-2023. I think it was back to a more normal competitive environment, where prices had risen, people with really strong balance sheets like us, had plenty of money to loan. People who didn't have as much history or not a strong balance sheet, both had tighter credit box, higher pricing and had to find funding, which was more expensive and harder to find.

在 22 年、23 年初，我們的許多競爭對手都無法獲得資金。所以我們有一個相當廣闊的開放市場。但這種情況到 2023 年中期發生了變化。我認為這又回到了一個更正常的競爭環境，價格上漲，像我們這樣擁有強大資產負債表的人有足夠的錢可以貸款。那些沒有那麼多歷史或沒有強大資產負債表的人，信貸額度都更緊，定價更高，並且必須尋找資金，而資金更昂貴且更難找到。

We've looked hard at the environment. I think right now, overall, the amount of loans being made is less than it was pre pandemic, but it's higher than it was a couple of years ago. All of this leads us to say we plan to win, and we plan to do good business and we plan to serve customers regardless of what's happening with the competition. I mean we have a healthy amount of respect for the competition. But that's why we've built out digital originations. We've expanded our product set. We've expanded our channels. And so your question, does the growth take into account the competitive environment, it would have to change a lot for us to have to change our strategy due to the competition. I mean we kind of stick with our knitting. We have a long-term view. We stay in the market. We're incredibly disciplined around credit and it served us well. We continue to look, and we have in our deck on Slide 11, our credit results continue to be better than competition. And so -- and I think it's because we have a long-term view, and we make sure that we're comfortable with the business we're booking.

我們認真審視了環境。我認為，目前總體而言，發放的貸款金額比大流行前要少，但比幾年前要高。所有這些都讓我們說，我們計劃獲勝，我們計劃做好業務，我們計劃為客戶提供服務，無論競爭情況如何。我的意思是我們對比賽有足夠的尊重。但這就是我們建立數位化起源的原因。我們擴大了我們的產品組合。我們擴大了通路。所以你的問題是，成長是否考慮到競爭環境，由於競爭，我們必須改變我們的策略，這將不得不改變很多。我的意思是我們有點堅持我們的編織。我們有長遠的眼光。我們留在市場裡。我們在信用方面非常嚴格，這對我們很有幫助。我們繼續尋找，我們的幻燈片 11 中顯示，我們的信用結果繼續優於競爭對手。所以——我認為這是因為我們有長遠的眼光，並且我們確保我們對所預訂的業務感到滿意。

We will take our next question from Arren Cyganovich with Citi.

我們將接受花旗集團的 Arren Cyganovich 提出的下一個問題。

I was just hoping you could give a little idea of the magnitude of net charge-off rate increase in the first half versus the second half. I think typical seasonality, the first quarter tends to be the highest and then improves in the second quarter. It sounds like the dynamics will be maybe a little bit different this year?

我只是希望您能稍微了解一下上半年與下半年相比淨沖銷率成長的幅度。我認為典型的季節性，第一季往往是最高的，然後在第二季度有所改善。聽起來今年的動態可能會有所不同？

Yes. I think generally speaking, Arren, it's Micah. We will -- we're typically what we will see in the first half is a loss rate that's about 100 basis points higher than what you will see in the third quarter with something a little bit in the middle of those 2 in the four. So the natural trend of 30 to 89, which starts the clock on charge-offs is for 30 to 89 to kind of bottom out in February, March during tax season. And then it begins to rise throughout the year. I think just a general seasonal trend, you would follow charge-offs 6 months later, effectively. And as long as that relationship holds then you would expect to see that the charge-offs will be lowest in the third quarter; second lowest in the fourth and then highest in the first and second.

是的。我認為一般來說，Arren，是 Micah。我們通常會在上半年看到損失率比第三季高出約 100 個基點，並且在四個季度中的 2 個基點之間略有上升。因此，30 至 89 的自然趨勢（沖銷時鐘的開始）是 30 至 89，在納稅季節期間的 2 月、3 月觸底。然後它開始全年上升。我認為這只是一般的季節性趨勢，您會在 6 個月後有效地追蹤沖銷。只要這段關係保持不變，您就會期望看到第三季的沖銷額將是最低的；第四個中第二低，然後第一和第二中最高。

Hey, everybody. Thanks so much for joining us today. As always, we're available for follow-up questions, and we look forward to seeing everybody soon.

嘿，大家。非常感謝您今天加入我們。像往常一樣，我們可以回答後續問題，並期待很快見到大家。

Thank you. This does conclude today's OneMain Financial Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Please disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的 OneMain Financial 第四季和 2023 年全年收益電話會議到此結束。此時請斷開您的線路，祝您有美好的一天。