ONE Gas Inc (OGS) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the ONE Gas 2022 Fourth Quarter and Year-End Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Brandon Lohse. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 ONE Gas 2022 年第四季度和年終收益電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。此時，我想將會議轉交給 Brandon Lohse。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us on our fourth quarter and year-end 2022 earnings conference call. This call is being webcast live, and a replay will be made available later today. After our prepared remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

早上好，感謝您加入我們的 2022 年第四季度和年底收益電話會議。此電話會議正在進行網絡直播，今天晚些時候將提供重播。在我們準備好的評論之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

A reminder that statements made during this call that might include ONE Gas expectations or predictions should be considered forward-looking statements and are covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, each as amended. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements. For a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ, please refer to our SEC filings.

提醒一下，在本次電話會議中做出的可能包括 ONE Gas 預期或預測的聲明應被視為前瞻性聲明，並受 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》、1933 年《證券法》和《證券與證券法》安全港條款的保護1934 年交易法，每一個都經過修正。實際結果可能與任何前瞻性陳述中預測的結果存在重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果不同的因素的討論，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

Joining us on the call this morning are Sid McAnnally, President and Chief Executive Officer; Caron Lawhorn, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Curtis Dinan, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer.

今天早上與我們一起參加電話會議的還有總裁兼首席執行官 Sid McAnnally； Caron Lawhorn，高級副總裁兼首席財務官；高級副總裁兼首席運營官 Curtis Dinan。

And now I'll turn the call over to Sid.

現在我將把電話轉給 Sid。

Thanks, Brandon, and good morning, everyone. Our fourth quarter and full year results reflect consistent performance against the guidance we communicated at the beginning of last year. Despite a range of geopolitical and monetary policy factors, which sharply altered the macroeconomic landscape during the year, our teams delivered earnings and capital execution squarely in line with our original plans. To put this achievement in context, in 2014, our first year as a stand-alone entity, we deployed a total of $262 million in core capital with just $47 million to support growth initiatives. Last year, we spent $657 million, approximately 2.5x our first year total, with $197 million dedicated to expansion initiatives, a quadrupling of our growth investment compared to that initial year.

謝謝，布蘭登，大家早上好。我們的第四季度和全年業績反映了我們在去年年初傳達的指導方針的一致表現。儘管一系列地緣政治和貨幣政策因素極大地改變了這一年的宏觀經濟格局，但我們的團隊交付的收益和資本執行完全符合我們的原定計劃。結合這一成就，在 2014 年，即我們作為獨立實體的第一年，我們部署了總計 2.62 億美元的核心資本，其中僅 4700 萬美元用於支持增長計劃。去年，我們花費了 6.57 億美元，大約是第一年總額的 2.5 倍，其中 1.97 億美元用於擴張計劃，與第一年相比，我們的增長投資翻了兩番。

We began 2023, and with our approach unchanged, being prudent in managing the present and remaining consistent in our commitment to the long-term execution of our core businesses and growth strategies. Leveraging lessons we learned from Winter Storm Uri and the system enhancements we made in its wake, I am pleased to report our business performed well during Winter Storm Elliott in December and Winter Storm Mara last month. Consistent execution during these formidable weather events underscores the value of natural gas distribution networks such as ours, particularly reliably as we look at reliable service, on winter heating loads. It also underscores the logic behind the all of the above energy policies in the states we serve.

我們從 2023 年開始，方法不變，審慎管理當前，並始終如一地致力於長期執行我們的核心業務和增長戰略。利用我們從冬季風暴 Uri 中吸取的教訓以及我們在其之後進行的系統增強，我很高興地報告我們的業務在 12 月的冬季風暴 Elliott 和上個月的冬季風暴 Mara 期間表現良好。在這些可怕的天氣事件中始終如一地執行突顯了像我們這樣的天然氣配送網絡的價值，尤其是在我們關注冬季供暖負荷的可靠服務時。它還強調了我們所服務的州所有上述能源政策背後的邏輯。

On the regulatory front, the recent approval of our West North Texas rate case represents a constructive outcome and recognition by our regulators of the need for ongoing investments to enhance system integrity and respond to regional economic development opportunities. As with -- as legislative sessions are underway in all 3 of our states, it's worth noting that each will be working with a sizable budget surplus capable of supporting continued economic development in our service territory.

在監管方面，最近批准我們的西北部德克薩斯利率案例代表了建設性的結果，也代表了我們的監管機構認識到需要持續投資以增強系統完整性和響應區域經濟發展機會的必要性。與 - 由於我們所有 3 個州都在進行立法會議，值得注意的是每個州都將使用可觀的預算盈餘來支持我們服務領域的持續經濟發展。

With that introduction, I'll turn it over to Caron to discuss financial details for the quarter and the full year. Caron?

有了這個介紹，我將把它交給 Caron 來討論本季度和全年的財務細節。卡隆？

Thanks, Sid. Good morning, everyone. Net income for the fourth quarter 2022 was $67 million or $1.23 per diluted share compared with $60.5 million or $1.12 per diluted share in the same period 2021. Our fourth quarter results include an increase in operating income of $16.6 million same period last year, which reflects $13.6 million from new rates and $1.6 million in sales from net residential customer growth. Operating costs for the quarter were $2.9 million higher compared to the same period (technical difficulty). Employee costs and outside services were relatively flat compared to the prior year. For the quarter, bad debt expense was $1.1 million higher than last year, but $3.1 million lower for the full year.

謝謝，希德。大家，早安。 2022 年第四季度淨收入為 6700 萬美元或稀釋後每股收益 1.23 美元，而 2021 年同期為 6050 萬美元或稀釋後每股收益 1.12 美元。我們第四季度的業績包括去年同期營業收入增加 1660 萬美元，這反映了1360 萬美元來自新利率，160 萬美元來自住宅客戶淨增長的銷售額。本季度的運營成本比同期高出 290 萬美元（技術難度）。與上一年相比，員工成本和外部服務相對持平。本季度，壞賬費用比去年增加 110 萬美元，但全年減少 310 萬美元。

Other income net increased $4.5 million for the quarter, which reflects a reduction of $2.1 million in nonservice costs for our pension plans due to the April remeasurement of our obligations, which we have discussed on previous calls. Interest expense in the quarter was $11.5 million higher than the same period in 2021. We issued $300 million of 4.25% senior notes in August and $336 million of securitized utility tariff bonds in November, both of which contributed to the increase. And as I mentioned last quarter, higher natural gas prices and increased natural gas storage balances as compared to the prior year, contributed to an increase in our working capital needs, which we fund with commercial paper. CP rates in the fourth quarter of 2022 were 4.3% compared with 25 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2021.

本季度其他收入淨增加 450 萬美元，這反映出由於 4 月份重新衡量我們的義務，我們的養老金計劃的非服務成本減少了 210 萬美元，我們在之前的電話會議上已經討論過這一點。本季度的利息支出比 2021 年同期高出 1,150 萬美元。我們在 8 月發行了 3 億美元的 4.25% 優先票據，在 11 月發行了 3.36 億美元的證券化公用事業關稅債券，兩者都對增長做出了貢獻。正如我在上個季度提到的那樣，與上一年相比，天然氣價格上漲和天然氣儲存餘額增加，導致我們的營運資金需求增加，我們用商業票據為其提供資金。 2022 年第四季度的 CP 利率為 4.3%，而 2021 年第四季度為 25 個基點。

Turning to securitization. With the November completion of the Kansas Gas Service securitized financing, I wanted to highlight that although there was no impact on net income during the quarter, revenues included approximately $5.8 million related to securitization. This was directly offset by approximately $3.5 million of amortization expense and $2.2 million of interest expense. We provided tables in yesterday's earnings news release that disclose the balance sheet and income statement impacts from the Kansas securitized financing. The securitization transaction in Texas is still pending, but we now expect the bonds to be issued by April.

轉向證券化。隨著 Kansas Gas Service 證券化融資於 11 月完成，我想強調的是，儘管本季度淨收入沒有受到影響，但收入中包括與證券化相關的約 580 萬美元。這直接被大約 350 萬美元的攤銷費用和 220 萬美元的利息費用所抵消。我們在昨天的收益新聞稿中提供了表格，其中披露了堪薩斯證券化融資對資產負債表和損益表的影響。德克薩斯州的證券化交易仍在進行中，但我們現在預計債券將在 4 月發行。

For the full year, net income was $221.7 million or $4.08 per diluted share versus $206.4 million or $3.85 per diluted share in 2021. Operating income was up approximately 13% or $39.7 million, which includes $58.7 million from new rates and $7 million from residential customer growth. Operating costs for the year were $24.4 million higher than 2021, primarily as a result of increases in outside service costs and employee labor and benefits.

全年淨收入為 2.217 億美元或攤薄後每股收益 4.08 美元，而 2021 年為 2.064 億美元或攤薄後每股收益 3.85 美元。營業收入增長約 13% 或 3,970 萬美元，其中包括來自新利率的 5,870 萬美元和來自住宅客戶的 700 萬美元生長。全年運營成本比 2021 年高出 2440 萬美元，這主要是由於外部服務成本以及員工勞動力和福利的增加。

Our capital expenditures and asset removal costs for the fourth quarter were $209.6 million, bringing our total for the year to $656.5 million compared to $544.3 million in 2021. The increase is primarily attributable to system integrity projects and extension of service to new areas. Average rate base for the year was $4.69 billion, with 42% of that in Oklahoma, 27% in Kansas and 31% in Texas. Authorized rate base, which is rate base reflected in completed regulatory proceedings, including the West North rate case that Curtis will discuss in a moment, was approximately $4.48 billion as of year-end.

我們第四季度的資本支出和資產搬遷成本為 2.096 億美元，與 2021 年的 5.443 億美元相比，全年總支出達到 6.565 億美元。增加的主要原因是系統完整性項目和向新領域的服務擴展。全年的平均利率基數為 46.9 億美元，其中俄克拉荷馬州佔 42%，堪薩斯州佔 27%，得克薩斯州佔 31%。截至年底，授權費率基數約為 44.8 億美元，這是反映在已完成的監管程序中的費率基數，包括 Curtis 稍後將討論的 West North 費率案。

Depreciation and amortization expense was $21.2 million higher than the prior year, reflecting an increase in net property, plant and equipment as a result of a higher level of capital investment. Also contributing to the increase is amortization associated with the Kansas Gas Service securitization transaction I previously mentioned.

折舊和攤銷費用比上年增加 2120 萬美元，反映出由於更高水平的資本投資導致淨財產、廠房和設備增加。與我之前提到的堪薩斯天然氣服務證券化交易相關的攤銷也對增加有所貢獻。

Turning to our liquidity. We ended the year with $448 million of capacity under our $1 billion commercial paper program and no borrowings under our credit facility. During the year, we sold and issued over 400,000 shares of common stock for $35 million under our at-the-market equity program. We also executed forward sales agreements for nearly 1.5 million shares. On December 30, we settled approximately 1.2 million of these shares, generating proceeds of about $94 million. We expect to replace our expiring registration statement and equity distribution agreement (technical difficulty) month. In January, the ONE Gas Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.65 per share, an increase of $0.03 or approximately 5% from the previous quarter.

轉向我們的流動性。我們在 10 億美元的商業票據計劃下以 4.48 億美元的產能結束了這一年，並且在我們的信貸額度下沒有借款。在這一年中，我們根據市場股權計劃以 3500 萬美元的價格出售和發行了超過 400,000 股普通股。我們還執行了近 150 萬股的遠期銷售協議。 12 月 30 日，我們結算了其中約 120 萬股股票，產生了約 9400 萬美元的收益。我們希望在一個月內更換我們即將到期的註冊聲明和股權分配協議（技術難度）。一月份，ONE Gas 董事會宣布派發每股 0.65 美元的股息，比上一季度增加 0.03 美元或約 5%。

Now I'll turn it over to Curtis for an update on the regulatory operations and commercial front.

現在我將把它交給 Curtis，以獲取有關監管操作和商業方面的最新信息。

Thank you, Caron, and good morning, everyone. Last March, Oklahoma Natural Gas filed its performance-based rate change application for $19.7 million. Pursuant to our tariff, new rates went into effect in July, and in November, the Oklahoma Corporation Commission issued an order approving $19.6 million in rate relief. Oklahoma Natural Gas will file its next performance-based rate change application next month using 2022 as the test year.

謝謝卡倫，大家早上好。去年 3 月，俄克拉荷馬天然氣公司以 1970 萬美元提交了基於性能的費率變更申請。根據我們的關稅，新稅率於 7 月生效，11 月，俄克拉荷馬州公司委員會發布命令，批准 1960 萬美元的稅率減免。 Oklahoma Natural Gas 將在下個月使用 2022 年作為測試年提交其下一個基於性能的費率變更申請。

In December, Oklahoma Natural Gas filed a request for a renewable natural gas pilot program and voluntary tariff. The proposed tariff will allow all residential, small commercial and industrial sales customers to voluntarily purchase RNG. If approved, the tariff will be in effect for a pilot period through 2027. An order is expected no earlier than the third quarter of [2020] (technical difficulty). Kansas Gas Service filed a $7.8 million gas system reliability surcharge last August. And in November, an order was received authorizing a $7.7 million increase effective December 1.

12 月，俄克拉荷馬天然氣公司提交了一項可再生天然氣試點計劃和自願關稅申請。擬議的關稅將允許所有住宅、小型商業和工業銷售客戶自願購買 RNG。如果獲得批准，該關稅將在 2027 年之前的試點期間生效。訂單預計不早於 [2020 年] 第三季度（技術難度）。堪薩斯天然氣服務公司去年 8 月提交了 780 萬美元的天然氣系統可靠性附加費。 11 月，收到了一份授權增加 770 萬美元的訂單，自 12 月 1 日起生效。

In January, the Railroad Commission of Texas approved the proposed service area consolidation and a rate increase of $8.8 million for the West North Texas service area with an authorized return on equity of 9.6% and a common equity ratio of 59.74%. New rates took effect on the first of this month. And finally, Texas Gas Service made gas reliability infrastructure program filings for all customers in the Central Gulf service area requesting an $11.5 million increase to be effective in June 2023.

1 月，得克薩斯州鐵路委員會批准了擬議的服務區整合和西北部服務區的費率增加 880 萬美元，授權股本回報率為 9.6%，普通股本比率為 59.74%。新利率於本月一號生效。最後，德克薩斯天然氣服務公司為中央海灣服務區的所有客戶提交了天然氣可靠性基礎設施計劃申請，要求增加 1150 萬美元，並於 2023 年 6 月生效。

Moving on to operations. As Sid mentioned, both Winter Storm Elliott, and more recently, Winter Storm Mara brought extreme cold, snow and ice to our service territories. As with Winter Storm Uri in 2021, our system, processes and coworkers performed well with no significant service disruptions. The lessons we learned from Winter Storm Uri and the investments we've made to our system sense, including adding leased storage capacity and further diversifying our supply portfolio have contributed to enhanced system reliability and resiliency. While we are pleased with our performance during these extreme winter events, we continue to evaluate opportunities to further reinforce our operations.

繼續操作。正如 Sid 所提到的，冬季風暴 Elliott 和最近的冬季風暴 Mara 都給我們的服務區域帶來了極寒、冰雪。與 2021 年的冬季風暴 Uri 一樣，我們的系統、流程和同事表現良好，沒有出現嚴重的服務中斷。我們從冬季風暴 Uri 中吸取的教訓以及我們對系統意義所做的投資，包括增加租賃存儲容量和進一步多樣化我們的供應組合，都有助於提高系統的可靠性和彈性。雖然我們對這些極端冬季事件中的表現感到滿意，但我們會繼續評估機會以進一步加強我們的運營。

I'll finish with a quick update on commercial activity. The work of our commercial teams continues to bear fruit as we added over 27,000 new customer connections in 2022, up nearly 12% compared to 2021 and marking a new record for annual meter sets at ONE Gas. Equally compelling is the broad-based nature of the growth across our territories. New customer connections in Texas grew roughly 3% from 2021. Oklahoma set nearly 13,000 new meters in the year, up 17% from 2021 meter sets and marking a new annual record. And new customer connections in Kansas jumped almost 22% compared with the prior year increase.

最後，我將簡要介紹一下商業活動。我們的商業團隊的工作繼續取得成果，因為我們在 2022 年增加了 27,000 多個新客戶連接，比 2021 年增長了近 12%，並創下了 ONE Gas 年度儀表組的新紀錄。同樣引人注目的是我們各地區增長的廣泛性。德克薩斯州的新客戶連接比 2021 年增長了約 3%。俄克拉荷馬州今年設置了近 13,000 個新儀表，比 2021 年增加了 17%，創下了新的年度記錄。與上一年的增幅相比，堪薩斯州的新客戶連接增長了近 22%。

We also continued to secure new business and ended the year with a record number of future meter sets in our backlog. On our first quarter call last year, I highlighted 2 large-scale projects to illustrate the measured approach we are taking in addressing new market opportunities. One of these was in the Oklahoma City Metro a multiphased $26 million project to support the development of more than 10,000 planned building lots over the next 5 to 7 years.

我們還繼續獲得新業務，並以創紀錄的積壓未來儀表組數量結束了這一年。在我們去年第一季度的電話會議上，我強調了 2 個大型項目，以說明我們在應對新市場機會方面所採取的審慎方法。其中之一是俄克拉荷馬城地鐵，一個耗資 2600 萬美元的多階段項目，以支持在未來 5 到 7 年內開發 10,000 多個規劃中的建築用地。

I said at the time, this project would meet the immediate needs of residential and commercial customers and position us to serve future waves of population growth to the area. Nine months later, we have identified the opportunity to increase the size of this project by an incremental 15% to accommodate more growth that developers have now planned in the area. This disciplined phased approach is emblematic of our growth strategy as it allows us to prudently manage our present opportunity set, while also positioning for longer-term system expansion.

我當時說過，該項目將滿足住宅和商業客戶的即時需求，並使我們能夠為該地區未來的人口增長浪潮提供服務。九個月後，我們發現有機會將該項目的規模增加 15%，以適應開發商現在計劃在該地區進行的更多增長。這種有紀律的分階段方法是我們增長戰略的象徵，因為它使我們能夠審慎地管理我們目前的機會集，同時也為長期的系統擴展做好準備。

Finally, this month, we opened the ONE Gas education and training area. This commercial kitchen offers space for residential filming, commercial foodservice cooking and equipment demonstration. Our commercial and energy efficiency teams are already leveraging the space to showcase the latest and natural gas cooking technology and innovation through hands-on demonstrations and testing. It is just another example of the creativity our teams are bringing to support the continued growth of our business.

終於，在這個月，我們開設了 ONE Gas 教育培訓區。這個商業廚房為住宅拍攝、商業餐飲服務烹飪和設備演示提供了空間。我們的商業和能源效率團隊已經在利用這個空間通過動手演示和測試來展示最新的天然氣烹飪技術和創新。這只是我們的團隊為支持我們業務的持續增長而帶來的創造力的另一個例子。

And now I'll turn it over to Sid for closing remarks.

現在我將把它交給 Sid 作結束語。

Thank you both. From the COVID-19 pandemic and its supply chain and labor force impacts to Winter Storm Uri and the securitization of extraordinary gas costs. The spiking inflation and the pace of monetary tightening not seen in several generations, the last 3 years have tested us, requiring our company to be flexible and resilient in the face of evolving challenges. We've committed to meet these challenges while maintaining our focus on 3 targets: a strong safety culture, excellent customer service and building the capacity to capture organic growth in our service territory. Our 2022 results showcase the resilience of our team and the success of our efforts as we delivered on our financial plan despite an economic landscape, which shifted significantly throughout the year.

謝謝你倆。從 COVID-19 大流行及其供應鍊和勞動力影響到冬季風暴 Uri 和異常天然氣成本的證券化。通貨膨脹飆升和貨幣緊縮步伐幾代人都未曾見過，過去 3 年對我們進行了考驗，要求我們的公司在面對不斷變化的挑戰時保持靈活性和彈性。我們致力於迎接這些挑戰，同時保持我們對 3 個目標的關注：強大的安全文化、卓越的客戶服務和建設在我們的服務領域實現有機增長的能力。我們 2022 年的業績展示了我們團隊的韌性以及我們在實現財務計劃時所做的努力的成功，儘管經濟形勢在全年發生了顯著變化。

In November, we detailed our 2023 and 5-year financial outlooks openhandedly discussing how altered macroeconomic conditions would impact our business and the conditions and the actions our company would take in response to those conditions. While the magnitude, volatility and direction of future changes in economic conditions are always uncertain, we remain focused on managing our business with sustainable long-term value creation in mind. That work is made possible by the commitment of each 1 of our 3,800 coworkers. I'm grateful for their dedication to safety, reliability and growth and I'm privileged to work alongside them every day.

11 月，我們詳細介紹了 2023 年和 5 年的財務展望，公開討論了宏觀經濟狀況的變化將如何影響我們的業務，以及我們公司為應對這些狀況將採取的狀況和行動。儘管未來經濟狀況變化的幅度、波動性和方向總是不確定的，但我們仍然專注於管理我們的業務，並牢記可持續的長期價值創造。我們 3,800 名同事中每一位的承諾使這項工作成為可能。我很感謝他們對安全、可靠性和增長的奉獻，我很榮幸能每天與他們一起工作。

Finally, speaking of coworkers, today marks Brandon's last earnings call as our Director of Investor Relations. He's been appointed Chief Financial Officer of the Electric Cooperatives of Arkansas and will assume that position next month. On behalf of the ONE Gas family, I want to thank Brandon for his service to the company and wish him all the best in his new role.

最後，說到同事，今天是布蘭登作為我們投資者關係總監的最後一次財報電話會議。他已被任命為阿肯色州電力合作社的首席財務官，並將於下個月就任該職位。我代表 ONE Gas 家族，感謝 Brandon 為公司所做的服務，並祝愿他在新職位上一切順利。

Thank you all for joining us this morning. Operator, we are now available for questions.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們。接線員，我們現在可以提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today goes to Paul Zimbardo of Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題是美國銀行的保羅津巴多。

Best of luck and congratulations. And I know you had a comprehensive guidance update. It feels like a long time ago, but just a few months ago. Just given the pretty significant decrease in natural gas prices, does that change anything that you previously contemplated around regulatory rate case strategy or just outlook for growth within the long-term range?

祝你好運和祝賀。我知道你有一個全面的指南更新。感覺像是很久以前的事了，但就在幾個月前。鑑於天然氣價格大幅下跌，這是否會改變您之前圍繞監管利率案例策略或只是長期範圍內的增長前景所考慮的任何事情？

Paul, this is Caron. No, it really doesn't. Certainly, that pullback is great news for us and for our customers. Just to talk about the customer impact, based on the current strip, we estimate that, that translates into a reduction in [month per month] for our customers, which is really good. That's relative to what we had anticipated we released our guidance back in November. Of course, it also has a positive impact on our cash flow, our working capital needs and our storage injections. So while that's really good news, it's just one factor among many that we have our eye on.

保羅，這是卡倫。不，它真的沒有。當然，這種回調對我們和我們的客戶來說都是好消息。只是談談對客戶的影響，根據當前的條帶，我們估計這會轉化為我們客戶的 [每月] 減少，這非常好。這與我們在 11 月發布的指南的預期有關。當然，它也對我們的現金流、我們的營運資金需求和我們的存儲注入產生積極影響。因此，雖然這確實是個好消息，但這只是我們關注的眾多因素之一。

Okay. Great. And then just a follow-up on that. Could you quantify what the improvement for working capital and perhaps like the short-term debt balance that you anticipate year-end '23 just given the benefits on lower gas costs?

好的。偉大的。然後只是跟進。您能否量化營運資金的改善情況，也許就像您預計 23 年年底的短期債務餘額一樣，只是考慮到降低天然氣成本的好處？

I don't -- never had (technical difficulty) like I said, there's a number of moving pieces and parts. Gas prices are important but just one piece of that puzzle.

我沒有——從來沒有像我說的那樣（技術困難），有許多移動的部件和部件。油價很重要，但只是其中的一小部分。

Okay. Great. And then I heard you about the update on the commercial development project, the 15% increase potential there. Are there any kind of similar projects that you have on the drawing board that you think could manifest over the next 12 to 18 months?

好的。偉大的。然後我聽說了商業開發項目的更新，那裡有 15% 的增長潛力。您認為在未來 12 到 18 個月內可能會在繪圖板上出現任何類型的類似項目嗎？

Paul, this is Curtis, and we do. I haven't highlighted all the ones over the past year, but there are a number of projects in various phases whether we're still developing them commercially, they're in design phases or they're in execution phases. And like the one I just highlighted, sometimes when they're in the construction phase, we identify more opportunities and the ability to further expand those. So the economic activity in our 3 states continues to be very robust, and we see a high demand for natural gas and the service we provide.

保羅，這是柯蒂斯，我們是。我沒有強調過去一年的所有項目，但有許多項目處於不同階段，無論我們仍在商業開發它們，它們處於設計階段還是處於執行階段。就像我剛剛強調的那樣，有時當他們處於建設階段時，我們會發現更多機會和進一步擴展這些機會的能力。因此，我們三個州的經濟活動繼續非常強勁，我們看到對天然氣和我們提供的服務有很高的需求。

And Paul, I'd just add that we also continue to see the in migration patterns that we talked about at the end of the year the knock on growth that we see with economic development. The reason that we mentioned the surpluses in our 3 states is these states have become very active in engaging and pursuing economic development opportunities, and we see industries pursuing the opportunities created by affordable energy. So we think the future remains bright for us, and we continue to prepare for that.

保羅，我只想補充一點，我們還繼續看到我們在年底談到的移民模式，以及我們在經濟發展中看到的對增長的衝擊。我們提到我們 3 個州的盈餘的原因是這些州在參與和尋求經濟發展機會方面變得非常積極，我們看到行業正在尋求負擔得起的能源創造的機會。所以我們認為未來對我們來說仍然是光明的，我們會繼續為此做準備。

And the next question goes to Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners.

下一個問題是 Guggenheim Partners 的 Shar Pourreza。

This is James on for Shar. So Paul asked one of the questions that I had there. I'll ask another that I had on the backlog. Basically, as the backlog shrinks, how do you -- how long are you thinking that it's going to take to fill it? And just as we've seen the change in sort of the rate of customer growth and obviously, with the macro backdrop, it's sort of slowed a bit in the key region there in Texas. How should we think about the $185 million related to new customer connect capital that's in the budget this year? And then what maybe next year and the year after look like? We're just trying to shape kind of that portion of the CapEx.

這是 Shar 的 James。所以保羅問了我在那裡的一個問題。我會問另一個我積壓的問題。基本上，隨著積壓工作的減少，你如何 - 你認為需要多長時間才能完成？正如我們已經看到客戶增長率的變化一樣，顯然，在宏觀背景下，德克薩斯州關鍵地區的增長速度有所放緩。我們應該如何考慮今年預算中與新客戶聯繫資本相關的 1.85 億美元？那麼明年和後年會是什麼樣子呢？我們只是想塑造資本支出的那一部分。

Sure. James. One macro observation, while the larger economic context does impact the country as a whole in our region to some degree, we continue to see scarcity of available housing. We were just this morning looking at National Association of Realtors' numbers that showed the inventory in our service territory, the available inventory is about 3.4 months, which is still historically low. And with the in-migration, we think we'll continue to see some build out.

當然。詹姆士。一項宏觀觀察表明，雖然更大的經濟背景確實在一定程度上影響了我們地區的整個國家，但我們仍然看到可用住房短缺。我們今天早上剛剛查看了全國房地產經紀人協會的數據，該數據顯示了我們服務區域內的庫存，可用庫存約為 3.4 個月，仍處於歷史低位。隨著遷移，我們認為我們將繼續看到一些擴建。

I'll ask Curtis to speak to the specific statistics in the shorter term to speak to your question, but we continue to like the fact that we live in the most affordable region in the country when you take the region as a whole. And all of that bodes well when you think about in migration of population, affordability of existing housing stock that needs to be replenished at scale that all supports our growth theory, and we continue to have confidence in it and to pursue it. Curtis, what would you add?

我會請 Curtis 談談短期內的具體統計數據來回答你的問題，但我們仍然喜歡這樣一個事實，即當你將整個地區作為一個整體時，我們生活在該國最負擔得起的地區。當你考慮人口遷移時，所有這些都是好兆頭，現有住房存量的可負擔性需要大規模補充，所有這些都支持我們的增長理論，我們繼續對此充滿信心並追求它。柯蒂斯，你會添加什麼？

Just one thing, James, I wanted to clarify 1 of the items from my comments, and that is we ended the year with a record number of future meter sets in our backlog. So it's not declining, it is growing. And our commercial teams continue to have success at exactly what Sid was describing that there is continued building going on in our service territories. And they continue to win new projects, some of them smaller, some of them much larger. But just like my example, in Oklahoma City, developers are still active because they're meeting immediate demand that the marketplace has and that's all very positive for us.

只有一件事，詹姆斯，我想澄清我評論中的一個項目，那就是我們在今年結束時積壓的未來儀表組數量創下歷史新高。所以它不是在下降，而是在增長。我們的商業團隊繼續取得成功，正如 Sid 所描述的那樣，我們的服務領域正在繼續建設。他們繼續贏得新項目，其中一些規模較小，一些規模大得多。但就像我的例子一樣，在俄克拉荷馬城，開發商仍然很活躍，因為他們正在滿足市場的即時需求，這對我們來說都是非常積極的。

Got you. That's helpful color. I guess just to get a bit more detail there, just to make sure I'm understanding correctly. Last year, your average annual sales customer growth, 1.2% that you were guiding to over the 5-year period that was ending '26 was led by Texas, but I believe it was just under 2%, I think it was 1.9%. And then in the '23 guidance, from the end of last year, it's now 1%, so 20 basis points lower with Texas at 1.6%. So if you could just help me understand how the backlog is still growing I guess, were you not at a point previously of being able to kind of meet it in real time?

明白了這是有用的顏色。我想只是為了在那裡獲得更多細節，只是為了確保我理解正確。去年，在 26 年底的 5 年期間，你的年平均銷售客戶增長率為 1.2%，由德克薩斯州領先，但我認為它略低於 2%，我認為是 1.9%。然後在 23 年的指導中，從去年年底開始，現在是 1%，所以德克薩斯州的 1.6% 低了 20 個基點。所以，如果你能幫助我了解積壓的情況如何仍在增長，我想，你以前不是在某種程度上能夠實時滿足它嗎？

It's a good problem to have. It's a high class problem. Don't get me wrong. I just want to make sure I'm understanding correctly why the backlog is still growing if the rate of customer growth is declining. Or are you thinking that there might be an opportunity to revise that lower customer growth guidance from the end of last year based on what you're seeing now and it might sort of return to where it had been. How should we think about it?

這是一個很好的問題。這是一個高級問題。不要誤會我的意思。我只是想確保我正確理解為什麼在客戶增長率下降的情況下積壓仍在增長。或者你是否認為可能有機會根據你現在看到的情況修改去年年底較低的客戶增長指導，它可能會回到原來的水平。我們應該如何思考呢？

Sure. James, let me take a stab at answering all those questions and if I skip something pull me back in. So when we gave the guidance at the end of last year, our 2023 initial guidance, we were looking at the economic landscape and seeing the increase in mortgage rates just as your question alluded to. We thought that would perhaps slow things a little bit by slow things, that's from a torrid pace to just a really hot pace. So a little bit less than what we saw in '22, we were anticipating that mortgage rates might have that impact.

當然。詹姆斯，讓我試著回答所有這些問題，如果我跳過某些內容，請把我拉回來。所以當我們在去年年底給出指導時，我們的 2023 年初步指導，我們正在研究經濟前景並看到就像你的問題提到的那樣提高抵押貸款利率。我們認為這可能會通過緩慢的事情來減慢事情的速度，即從熾熱的步伐到非常熱的步伐。所以比我們在 22 年看到的要少一點，我們預計抵押貸款利率可能會產生這種影響。

We continue to see just a few months later, the building activity continuing, I think it is a positive that things have slowed down a little bit because it's allowed developers and builders to get caught up on several projects that they have. So when we talk about our backlog. We got to kind of separate the short term from the long term. So when we're talking about our backlog, those might be additions just like my Oklahoma City example that are 5- to 7-year build-outs, sometimes quicker, sometimes a little bit longer.

幾個月後我們繼續看到，建築活動仍在繼續，我認為事情有所放緩是積極的，因為它允許開發商和建築商趕上他們擁有的幾個項目。所以當我們談論我們的積壓工作時。我們必須將短期與長期分開。因此，當我們談論我們的積壓工作時，這些可能是補充，就像我的俄克拉荷馬城示例一樣，需要 5 到 7 年的擴建，有時會更快，有時會更長一些。

In the near term, we were trying to gauge what impact of economic activity we would see in '23 compared to '22. And we thought that might be a little bit less, but still at a really good pace. And as the increase in our backlog demonstrates, there's still a lot of activity happening even with the backdrop that you were describing. So did I skip anything in your questions? Or did that hit all the points you were [getting to]?

在短期內，我們試圖衡量與 22 年相比，23 年經濟活動的影響。我們認為這可能會少一些，但速度仍然非常快。正如我們積壓工作的增加所表明的那樣，即使在您描述的背景下，仍有很多活動在發生。那麼我在您的問題中是否跳過了任何內容？或者這是否達到了您[達到]的所有要點？

That was terrific. I really appreciate the clarification.

那太棒了。我真的很感謝你的澄清。

(Operator Instructions) Thank you. We have no further questions. I'll hand back to Brandon for any closing remarks.

（操作員說明）謝謝。我們沒有其他問題了。我會把任何結束語交還給布蘭登。

Thank you all again for your interest in ONE Gas. Our quiet period for the first quarter starts when we close our books in early April and extends until we release in [early May]. We'll provide details on the conference call at a later date. Have a great day.

再次感謝大家對 ONE Gas 的關注。我們第一季度的靜默期從我們在 4 月初關閉賬簿開始，一直持續到我們在 [5 月初] 發布。我們將在稍後提供有關電話會議的詳細信息。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes the ONE Gas 2022 Fourth Quarter and Year-End Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Thank you so much for joining. You may now disconnect.

ONE Gas 2022 年第四季度和年終收益電話會議和網絡廣播到此結束。非常感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連接。