OGE Energy Corp (OGE) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the OGE Energy Corp. Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    歡迎參加 OGE Energy Corp. 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Jason Bailey, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我想將會議交給今天的第一位發言人,投資者關係總監傑森貝利 (Jason Bailey)。請繼續。

  • Jason Bailey - Director of Investor Relations

    Jason Bailey - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Corinne, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our call. With me today I have Sean Trauschke, our Chairman, President and CEO; and Chuck Walworth, Interim CFO. In terms of the call today, we will first hear from Sean, followed by an explanation from Chuck of financial results, and finally, as always, we will answer your questions.

    謝謝你,科琳,大家早安,歡迎撥打我們的電話。今天和我在一起的還有我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Sean Trauschke;和臨時財務長 Chuck Walworth。在今天的電話會議中,我們將首先聽取 Sean 的發言,然後是 Chuck 對財務業績的解釋,最後,一如既往,我們將回答您的問題。

  • I'd like to remind you that this conference is being webcast, and you may follow along at oge.com. In addition, the conference call and accompanying slides will be archived following the call on that same website.

    我想提醒您,本次會議正在進行網路直播,您可以透過 oge.com 進行關注。此外,電話會議和隨附的幻燈片將在電話會議結束後在同一網站上存檔。

  • Before we begin the presentation, I'd like to direct your attention to the safe harbor statement regarding forward-looking statements. This is an SEC requirement for financial statements and simply states that we cannot guarantee forward-looking financial results, but this is our best estimate today.

    在我們開始演示之前,我想請您注意有關前瞻性陳述的安全港聲明。這是 SEC 對財務報表的要求,只是表明我們不能保證前瞻性財務結果,但這是我們今天的最佳估計。

  • I will now turn the call over to Sean for his opening remarks. Sean?

    現在我將把電話轉給肖恩,讓他致開幕詞。肖恩?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Jason. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. It's certainly great to be with you. Today, I'll address our financial results as well as provide you an update on year-end guidance, regulatory items and load growth.

    謝謝你,傑森。大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。和你在一起真是太好了。今天,我將介紹我們的財務業績,並向您提供有關年終指導、監管項目和負載增長的最新資訊。

  • Before we get into the details of the quarter, I'd like to reflect on the most recent storms, including 6 confirmed and perhaps as many as 12 tornadoes, that impacted tens of thousands of people in Oklahoma and Western Arkansas over the last two days. Fortunately, no lives were lost, but many are left without homes and are dealing with damaged property and have countless hours ahead of them to recover. I'm incredibly proud of our team's response. Within 24 hours, 86% of the impacted customers were restored and more than 90% of essential services were back up and running.

    在我們詳細介紹本季度的情況之前,我想先回顧一下最近發生的風暴,其中包括6 場已確認的龍捲風,可能多達12 場龍捲風,在過去的兩天裡,這些風暴影響了俄克拉荷馬馬州和阿肯色州西部的數萬人。幸運的是,沒有人喪生,但許多人無家可歸,正在處理受損的財產,距離恢復還有無數個小時。我對我們團隊的反應感到非常自豪。24 小時內,86% 受影響的客戶得到恢復,超過 90% 的基本服務恢復正常運作。

  • One thing you may not have considered, our team has worked alongside state and county election officials to ensure all polling places are energized today for our citizens to vote. Our reliability investments, automated technology and continuous improvement efforts are reducing outages before they happen and driving down outage time when they do.

    您可能沒有考慮到的一件事是,我們的團隊與州和縣選舉官員合作,確保今天所有投票站都通電,以便我們的公民投票。我們的可靠性投資、自動化技術和持續改善工作正在減少停機發生之前的情況,並在發生停機時縮短停機時間。

  • Now turning to our financial results. Earlier this morning, we reported third quarter consolidated earnings of $1.09 per share, including electric company earnings of $1.12 per share and a holding company loss of $0.03. Our solid performance this quarter is due to robust demand for energy across all sectors and continued customer growth, outpacing historical norms, combined with outstanding operational excellence and increased digital self-service technologies delivered by our team.

    現在轉向我們的財務表現。今天早些時候,我們公佈了第三季合併收益每股 1.09 美元,其中電力公司每股收益 1.12 美元,控股公司虧損 0.03 美元。我們本季的穩健表現得益於各行業對能源的強勁需求和客戶的持續成長(超過歷史水平),再加上卓越的營運能力和我們團隊提供的不斷增加的數位自助服務技術。

  • As we noted last quarter, we are operating ahead of plan this year and now expect to be at the top of our original earnings guidance of $2.06 to $2.18 per share, and Chuck will share more about that in just a bit.

    正如我們上季度所指出的,我們今年的營運超出了計劃,現在預計將達到每股 2.06 美元至 2.18 美元的原始盈利指導的最高點,查克將在稍後分享更多相關信息。

  • On the regulatory front, we anticipate an order in our Oklahoma rate review by the end of the year. Additionally, we read an uncontested settlement with stakeholders on our five-year energy efficiency portfolio, which includes demand response, and we expect that order by the end of the year. As we meet our growing capacity needs for the future, energy efficiency and demand response will play a critical role in reducing overall capacity requirements.

    在監管方面,我們預計俄克拉荷馬州的利率審查將在今年年底前下達命令。此外,我們與利害關係人就我們的五年能源效率組合達成了無爭議的和解協議,其中包括需求響應,我們預計該命令將在今年年底前下達。當我們滿足未來不斷增長的產能需求時,能源效率和需求響應將在降低整體產能需求方面發揮關鍵作用。

  • As our team continues to work through the generation capacity RFPs, we plan to file for approval in the first half of 2025. Together with our system reliability investments, we will continue to invest in generation capacity through the IRP RFP process and transmission capacity through SPP's process. And we continue to expect constructive regulatory outcomes in both states.

    隨著我們的團隊繼續完成發電能力 RFP,我們計劃在 2025 年上半年提交批准申請。連同我們的系統可靠性投資,我們將繼續透過 IRP RFP 流程投資發電容量,並透過 SPP 流程投資輸電容量。我們繼續期待這兩個州取得建設性的監管成果。

  • Demand growth remains strong with our forecast for the year now at the top of the revised range of 4% to 6% that we gave you in the second quarter. We are experiencing growth across all customer classes, led by commercial, followed by extraordinarily strong residential growth.

    需求成長依然強勁,我們對今年的預測目前處於我們在第二季為您提供的 4% 至 6% 修正範圍的頂部。我們正在經歷所有客戶類別的成長,其中以商業為主導,其次是異常強勁的住宅成長。

  • We know our low rates drive broad-based business expansion, creating that future demand. Some of the most recent expansions announced include defense, manufacturing and continued electrification across a number of sectors. We've been working on a project to solidify our supply chain and drive local business expansion that I look forward to sharing with you in the near future.

    我們知道,我們的低利率推動了廣泛的業務擴張,創造了未來的需求。最近宣布的一些擴張包括國防、製造和多個領域的持續電氣化。我們一直在進行一個項目,以鞏固我們的供應鏈並推動本地業務擴張,我期待在不久的將來與您分享。

  • We're working on a handful of data center projects, including a franchise election today in one community for OG&E to serve a new data center in the state. The economic picture in Oklahoma and Arkansas remains bright with unemployment rates well below the national average.

    我們正在進行一些資料中心項目,包括今天在一個社區進行的 OG&E 特許經營選舉,以便為該州的一個新資料中心提供服務。俄克拉荷馬州和阿肯色州的經濟前景依然光明,失業率遠低於全國平均。

  • In addition to top line growth, we continue to manage our costs, delivering some of the best O&M per megawatt hour cost in the industry. Our relentless focus on affordability results in increased self-service digital tools for our customers to do business with us 24/7.

    除了營收成長之外,我們還繼續管理成本,提供業界最佳的每兆瓦時營運和維護成本。我們對負擔能力的不懈關注導致自助數位工具的增加,讓我們的客戶能夠 24/7 與我們開展業務。

  • Before I close, I'd like to recognize two milestone anniversaries that our company celebrated last month: centennials for two of our power generation sites, Muskogee and Horseshoe Lake. A century ago, these plants began generating power for communities that were just beginning to electrify. While the original units are long since retired, today, we serve an increased demand for the electricity to power homes, businesses, transportation, workplaces and lives that could not be imagined back then. And that demand has not subsided, it's only growing.

    在結束之前,我想向我們公司上個月慶祝的兩個里程碑式的周年紀念日表示感謝:我們的兩個發電站馬斯科吉和馬蹄湖的百年紀念。一個世紀前,這些工廠開始為剛開始電氣化的社區發電。雖然原來的設備早已退役,但今天,我們滿足了家庭、企業、交通、工作場所和生活日益增長的電力需求,這在當時是無法想像的。這種需求不但沒有減弱,反而還在成長。

  • And we've continued to invest in generation at these sites over the years and just broke ground on Horseshoe Lake for Units 11 to 12, another 450 megawatts of hydrogen-capable natural gas units. Investing in existing sites helps keep costs low for our customers as we serve growing demand and a growing customer base. These investments also drive the local economy with the expected economic impact of $536 million through the Horseshoe Lake investment.

    多年來,我們一直在這些地點進行發電投資,剛剛在馬蹄湖 (Horseshoe Lake) 的 11 至 12 號機組破土動工,這是另外一個 450 兆瓦的氫能天然氣機組。投資現有站點有助於降低客戶的成本,因為我們滿足不斷增長的需求和不斷增長的客戶群。這些投資也帶動了當地經濟,透過馬蹄湖投資預計將產生 5.36 億美元的經濟影響。

  • Recently, 110 of our employees returned from Florida. And before that, another similar-sized group returned from Georgia, where they helped rebuild after Hurricanes Milton and Helene knocked out power to millions of folks across the Southeast. Mutual assistance is one of the most incredible aspects of our industry, and I'm so proud of our purpose-driven team who readily volunteer to spend weeks away from family to help others. We're also happy to go because we have our share of extreme weather, as I just mentioned a few minutes ago.

    最近,我們有 110 名員工從佛羅裡達州返回。在此之前,另一個規模相似的團體從喬治亞州返回,在颶風米爾頓和海倫導致東南部數百萬人斷電後,他們幫助當地重建。互助是我們行業最令人難以置信的方面之一,我為我們以目標為導向的團隊感到非常自豪,他們樂意自願離開家人幾週來幫助他人。我們也很高興去,因為我們也遇到了極端天氣,正如我幾分鐘前提到的。

  • As I close my remarks, I want to leave you with a couple of thoughts on this election day. As Americans, we hold the incredible right and responsibility to elect leaders at the local, state and national level. I hope your voting plans are set for today if you haven't already voted, and we encourage our employees to vote and know they've made their voices heard.

    在我結束演講時,我想就這個選舉日向大家留下一些想法。身為美國人,我們擁有選舉地方、州和國家各級領導人的令人難以置信的權利和責任。如果您還沒有投票,我希望您今天能製定投票計劃,我們鼓勵我們的員工投票,並知道他們已經表達了自己的聲音。

  • And with that sense of duty in mind, it's good reminder -- to remind us that we serve all. Our obligation to equally serve customer without favor drives every person, every project and every decision in our company.

    牢記這種責任感,這是一個很好的提醒——提醒我們,我們為所有人服務。我們平等無私地為客戶服務的義務驅動著我們公司的每個人、每個專案和每個決定。

  • Second, stability. We do what we say we'll do, and we are driving economic prosperity for the future in Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. And as we celebrate Centennials at Muskogee and Horseshoe Lake, we're building business for the next century. And finally, our investment opportunities for reliability and system growth are numerous.

    第二,穩定性。我們言出必行,推動俄克拉荷馬州和阿肯色州西部未來的經濟繁榮。當我們在馬斯科吉和馬蹄湖慶祝百年慶典時,我們正在為下一個世紀打造業務。最後,我們在可靠性和系統成長方面的投資機會很多。

  • Whether distribution, whether transmission or generation capacity, we will remain nimble and flexible to manage for the long-term success of the company and our communities. Delivering safe, reliable, affordable and resilient electricity to our customers is our North Star.

    無論是配電、輸電還是發電能力,我們都將保持敏捷和靈活的管理,以實現公司和社區的長期成功。為客戶提供安全、可靠、負擔得起且有彈性的電力是我們的北極星。

  • And with these priorities in mind, I'm very pleased with how the company is positioned for the future. Our consistently solid execution lays a foundation, a foundation for not only this year, a foundation for not only '25, not only '26 but many years thereafter.

    考慮到這些優先事項,我對公司的未來定位感到非常滿意。我們一貫紮實的執行力奠定了基礎,不僅是今年的基礎,不僅是 25 年的基礎,不僅是 26 年的基礎,也是此後許多年的基礎。

  • So thank you very much, and now I'll turn the call over to Chuck. Chuck?

    非常感謝您,現在我將把電話轉給查克。查克?

  • Charles Walworth - Chief Financial Officer

    Charles Walworth - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Sean, and thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. Let's start on slide 7 and discuss third quarter 2024 results. On a consolidated basis, third quarter net income was approximately $219 million or $1.09 per diluted share compared to approximately $242 million or $1.20 per share in the same period 2023.

    謝謝你,肖恩,謝謝你,傑森,大家早安。讓我們從投影片 7 開始討論 2024 年第三季的業績。合併後,第三季淨利約為 2.19 億美元,即稀釋後每股收益 1.09 美元,而 2023 年同期淨利潤約為 2.42 億美元,即每股 1.20 美元。

  • In our core business, the electric company achieved net income of $225 million or $1.12 per diluted share compared to approximately $246 million or $1.22 per share in the same period 2023. The decrease was primarily driven by higher depreciation and interest expense related to our capital investments, higher operation and maintenance expense and income tax expense.

    在我們的核心業務中,該電力公司實現淨利潤 2.25 億美元,即稀釋後每股收益 1.12 美元,而 2023 年同期淨利潤約為 2.46 億美元,即每股收益 1.22 美元。下降的主要原因是與我們的資本投資相關的折舊和利息費用增加、營運和維護費用以及所得稅費用增加。

  • These drivers were partially offset by continued exceptional load growth, which offset the impact of milder weather compared to last year. We have reserved the earnings impact of the interim rates in Oklahoma that began on July 1, and we will recognize the earnings consistent with the final order we received from the commission.

    這些驅動因素被持續的異常負載增長所部分抵消,從而抵消了與去年相比溫和天氣的影響。我們保留了俄克拉荷馬州自 7 月 1 日開始的臨時利率對盈利的影響,我們將確認與我們從委員會收到的最終訂單一致的盈利。

  • Other operations, including our holding company, reported a loss of approximately $6 million or $0.03 per diluted share in the third quarter compared to a loss of approximately $4 million or $0.02 per diluted share in the same period 2023. The increase in net loss was primarily due to higher interest expense, partially offset by higher income tax benefit. I will discuss our expectations for full year 2024 consolidated earnings in a moment.

    包括我們的控股公司在內的其他業務在第三季報告虧損約 600 萬美元或稀釋每股 0.03 美元,而 2023 年同期虧損約 400 萬美元或稀釋每股 0.02 美元。淨虧損的增加主要是由於利息支出增加,但部分被所得稅優惠增加所抵銷。我稍後將討論我們對 2024 年全年合併收益的預期。

  • Let's review our load results by turning to slide 8. Our weather-normalized load growth was exceptional at 8.4%, which I believe is the largest quarter-over-quarter growth that I've ever seen during my 24 years with the company. Additionally, our customer count continued its strong year-over-year growth at 1.2%.

    讓我們轉到幻燈片 8 來回顧我們的載入結果。我們的天氣正常化負荷成長非常出色,達到 8.4%,我相信這是我在公司工作 24 年來見過的最大季度環比增長。此外,我們的客戶數量持續保持強勁的年增 1.2%。

  • We continue to attract new business and business expansions in our service area and deliver results for our communities, customers and shareholders. As we've said in the past, we've got a great pipeline of development activities, and Sean highlighted some of those with you a moment ago. In addition to that, we are also seeing expansions in tribal enterprises, health care and energy.

    我們繼續在我們的服務領域吸引新的業務和業務擴張,並為我們的社區、客戶和股東帶來成果。正如我們過去所說,我們有大量的開發活動,肖恩剛才向大家強調了其中的一些活動。除此之外,我們也看到部落企業、醫療保健和能源領域的擴張。

  • Looking closer at weather-normalized load for this quarter, the strength was across all customer classes with residential growing at an impressive 1.8%, commercial had an extraordinary 24.7% and very strong showings for industrials at 3.7% and oilfield at 1.7%. Year-to-date, we've experienced weather-normalized load growth of 6.8% and expect to finish at the top of our 2024 load growth guidance of 4% to 6%.

    仔細觀察本季的天氣正常化負載,所有客戶類別均表現強勁,住宅增長了 1.8%,商業增長了 24.7%,工業增長了 3.7%,油田增長了 1.7%。今年迄今為止,我們的天氣正常化負荷增長了 6.8%,預計將達到 2024 年負載增長指導值 4% 至 6% 的最高水平。

  • Now let's address our full year earnings expectations on slide 9. Due to excellent load growth year-to-date as well as a warmer-than-normal summer, we expect to be at the top of 2024's consolidated earnings per share guidance range of $2.06 to $2.18 per average diluted share, assuming approval of the uncontested Oklahoma rate review settlement in 2024.

    現在讓我們討論幻燈片 9 上的全年獲利預期。由於今年迄今為止出色的負載增長以及比正常情況更溫暖的夏季,假設無爭議的批准獲得批准,我們預計 2024 年合併每股收益指導範圍將達到平均稀釋每股 2.06 美元至 2.18 美元的頂部俄克拉荷馬荷馬州將於2024 年進行利率審查和解。

  • Turning to slide 10. We have completed our planned financings for the year. Our fundamentals are excellent with one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry, a forecasted FFO-to-debt of approximately 17% each year through '28, strong credit ratings, no fixed rate maturities until 2027 and no need for external equity issuances in the current plan.

    轉到投影片 10。我們已經完成了今年的計劃融資。我們的基本面非常出色,擁有業內最強勁的資產負債表之一,預計到28 年每年FFO 債務比率約為17%,信用評級強勁,2027 年之前沒有固定利率到期日,並且無需在2027 年進行外部股票發行。

  • In closing, our third quarter results reflect continued operational excellence. Based on the strong load I described earlier and a warmer-than-normal summer, we believe we will achieve consolidated EPS at the top of the current guidance range. Our strong execution this year allows us to turn our focus on 2025 and beyond.

    最後,我們第三季的業績反映了持續的卓越營運。基於我之前描述的強勁負荷和比正常情況溫暖的夏季,我們相信我們將實現當前指導範圍頂部的綜合每股收益。今年的強勁執行力使我們能夠將重點轉向 2025 年及以後。

  • We believe our bright future is based on what we call our sustainable business model, defined by low rates, excellent loan growth, a constructive regulatory environment and a customer-centric investment plan. Our plan provides flexibility to address investments that are required to meet the electric demand of our growing communities and our customers' expectation of a safe, reliable and affordable system while at the same time keeping a keen eye on maintaining our low rates. This competitive advantage is the bedrock of our success in attracting new and expanding loads in our communities.

    我們相信,我們光明的未來是基於我們所謂的永續商業模式,即低利率、出色的貸款成長、建設性的監管環境和以客戶為中心的投資計畫。我們的計劃提供了靈活性,可以滿足不斷增長的社區的電力需求以及客戶對安全、可靠和負擔得起的系統的期望所需的投資,同時密切關注維持我們的低費率。這種競爭優勢是我們成功吸引社區新的和不斷擴大的負荷的基石。

  • We believe we will continue to deliver consistent yearly consolidated EPS growth of 5% to 7% based off of 2024's original guidance and combined with an expected stable and growing dividend that offers a compelling total shareholder return proposition. Our confidence to deliver on the commitments we've made to our customers and our shareholders is based on our strong fundamentals and backed up by the dedication of our employees.

    我們相信,基於 2024 年的最初指導,我們將繼續實現 5% 至 7% 的年度綜合每股收益持續增長,並結合預期穩定且不斷增長的股息,提供令人信服的股東總回報主張。我們有信心兌現對客戶和股東所做的承諾,這是基於我們強大的基礎和員工奉獻精神的支持。

  • That concludes our prepared remarks, and we'll now open the line for your questions.

    我們準備好的演講到此結束,現在我們將開通提問熱線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Nick Campanella from Barclays.

    來自巴克萊銀行的尼克·坎帕內拉。

  • Nathan Richardson - Analyst

    Nathan Richardson - Analyst

  • It's Nathan Richardson on for Nick. Just a couple of questions for you. So first, what is your opportunity set for SPP? And would that be incremental to the plan?

    內森理查森 (Nathan Richardson) 替補尼克。只是想問你幾個問題。首先,您為 SPP 設定的機會是什麼?這會是計劃的增量嗎?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So they've made some announcements here, and we're awaiting some notices to construct that we expect to see in December. And there's a process by which you go through and finalize your estimates. We will do that. And just like we do with all of our -- like the generation stuff, once we nail that down, we'll layer that into our plants. And as Chuck mentioned many times, we've got a lot of flexibility to kind of move things around and -- but that's just another lever we have to invest, and we'll pursue that. But yes, there's some opportunities there.

    是的。他們在這裡發布了一些公告,我們正在等待一些通知來建立我們預計在 12 月看到的內容。您可以透過一個流程來完成並最終確定您的估計。我們會這麼做的。就像我們對待所有的東西一樣,就像一代的東西一樣,一旦我們確定下來,我們就會將其分層到我們的植物中。正如查克多次提到的,我們有很大的靈活性來改變事情,但這只是我們必須投資的另一個槓桿,我們將追求這一點。但是,是的,那裡有一些機會。

  • Nathan Richardson - Analyst

    Nathan Richardson - Analyst

  • Got it. And then we've seen recently some other utilities raise rate base growth CapEx, earnings guidance materially, things like that, based off of load revisions. How are you thinking about the potential to increase these things in the future given the current 5% to 7% EPS CAGR, taking into account bill headroom and the growing load environment in Oklahoma?

    知道了。然後我們最近看到其他一些公用事業公司根據負載修正大幅提高了利率基礎成長資本支出、獲利指引等。鑑於目前 5% 至 7% 的 EPS 複合年增長率,考慮到帳單空間和俄克拉荷馬州不斷增長的負載環境,您如何看待未來增加這些東西的潛力?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think you kind of help me answer the question there. Good question, Nathan. But I think what's really going to drive that for us is load growth. And we've been really blessed with what we've already experienced. And what we see in the pipeline for many years out, it's not waning. And so it's very difficult to kind of forecast with any specificity more than a year out of what we're going to see when it comes online.

    是的。我想你可以幫助我回答這個問題。好問題,內森。但我認為真正推動我們發展的是負載成長。我們對已經經歷過的事情感到非常幸運。多年來我們在管道中看到的情況並沒有減弱。因此,很難對它上線後一年多的情況進行具體預測。

  • But as the growth materialize, we're going to deploy more capital. And it's -- I think it's intuitive to think about it in terms of as the system grows and we add more customers, just the number is going to continue to rise in terms of our investment capital.

    但隨著成長的實現,我們將部署更多的資本。我認為,隨著系統的發展和我們增加更多客戶,我們直觀地考慮這一點,就我們的投資資本而言,這個數字將繼續增加。

  • But as we think about it, our ability to deploy that capital and spread it over more customers, and that's what we refer to as that sustainable business model. And my drive here -- our intention is really to focus on to keep this going for many, many years. We're not focused on kind of a two-year blip. We're focused on a very, very long runway as this continue to materialize.

    但正如我們所思考的那樣,我們有能力部署這些資本並將其分配給更多客戶,這就是我們所說的永續商業模式。我在這裡的動力是——我們的真正目的是專注於讓這種情況持續很多很多年。我們並不關注兩年的短暫現象。隨著這一目標不斷實現,我們專注於一條非常非常長的跑道。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Constantine Lednev of Guggenheim Partners.

    古根漢合作夥伴的康斯坦丁‧萊德涅夫。

  • Constantine Lednev - Analyst

    Constantine Lednev - Analyst

  • It's actually Constantine here for Shar. Congrats on a great quarter.

    其實是康斯坦丁來找莎爾的。恭喜您度過了一個出色的季度。

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good to hear from you.

    很高興收到你的來信。

  • Constantine Lednev - Analyst

    Constantine Lednev - Analyst

  • Great to hear from you as well. Thanks for the update. Maybe can you talk about the expectations for a CapEx update? Will you be in a position to update CapEx fully at year-end given the expectation for the generation RFP kind of time frame? Or does that remain an upside opportunity with kind of financing needs pushed out further kind of all those updates?

    很高興收到你的來信。感謝您的更新。也許您能談談對資本支出更新的預期嗎?考慮到產生 RFP 的時間框架的預期,您是否能夠在年底全面更新資本支出?或者這仍然是一個上行機會,因為融資需求推動了所有這些更新的進一步發展?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think that's exactly right. I think by the time we get to February, we will not have filed with the commission yet for approval of our decision around the generation RFP. Just like we did with Horseshoe Lake, Constantine, what we will do is we'll file that and get that approval with the regulatory compact in order. We'll show you that on our CapEx table. And if there's any adjustments to financing, we'll tell you that as well.

    是的。我認為這是完全正確的。我認為到二月時,我們還沒有向委員會提交有關一代 RFP 的決定的批准。就像我們對康斯坦丁馬蹄湖所做的那樣,我們要做的就是提交該文件並按順序獲得監管契約的批准。我們將在我們的資本支出表上向您展示這一點。如果融資方面有任何調整,我們也會告訴您。

  • Constantine Lednev - Analyst

    Constantine Lednev - Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. And then maybe a quick follow-up. As we're seeing some of the constraints around turbine availability and kind of more conventional generation in the near term, does that change your view on resource mix going forward? And maybe is there an opportunity for some near-term upgrade projects kind of in lieu of some of the constraints?

    好的。完美的。然後也許是快速跟進。由於我們在短期內看到渦輪機可用性和更傳統發電的一些限制,這是否會改變您對未來資源組合的看法?也許有機會進行一些近期的升級專案來代替一些限制?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. You're breaking up a little bit, but I think what I heard you say does some of the constraints around turbine availability create an opportunity for certain upgrades at our plants? I would share...

    是的。你們有點分手了,但我想我聽到你說的一些關於渦輪機可用性的限制是否為我們工廠的某些升級創造了機會?我會分享...

  • Constantine Lednev - Analyst

    Constantine Lednev - Analyst

  • Yes. Any thoughts on resource mix?

    是的。對資源組合有什麼想法嗎?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think certainly, availability is important, when these assets are available and can get into service. Your point about upgrades to our plants, that is a continuous effort we're always looking at. We've got a number of studies underway. We've done some upgrades already, where you pick up 20, 30, 40 megawatts per unit. We continually look at that. So that's not a new development. That's kind of just in our bucket of things that we're always looking at.

    是的。我認為,當這些資產可用並且可以投入使用時,可用性當然很重要。您關於我們工廠升級的觀點是我們一直關注的持續努力。我們正在進行多項研究。我們已經進行了一些升級,每台可提供 20、30、40 兆瓦的功率。我們不斷關注這一點。所以這不是一個新的發展。這就是我們一直在關注的事情。

  • In terms of resource mix, we're going to look at the best value for our customers. And as I've said many times, it's still our intention to own these assets for the long term. Depending on availability and construction time lines, there may be a scenario where we have to kind of bridge something with some short-term capacity, but we're going to do what's right and serves our customers. So I don't think the -- I'm ready to commit to kind of a change in asset mix yet.

    在資源組合方面,我們將著眼於為客戶創造最大價值。正如我多次說過的,我們仍然打算長期擁有這些資產。根據可用性和施工時間線,可能存在一種情況,我們必須用一些短期能力來彌補某些東西,但我們將做正確的事情並為我們的客戶服務。所以我認為我還沒有準備好承諾對資產結構進行某種改變。

  • Constantine Lednev - Analyst

    Constantine Lednev - Analyst

  • Okay. And then maybe a last one on load growth. You're kind of trending to exceeding your guidance -- or assumption range for 2024 just on a year-to-date basis? Do you envision any kind of incremental CapEx or pull-forwards in support of this higher near-term load growth? Or is there more focus on executing the RFPs that we talked about?

    好的。然後也許是關於負載增長的最後一個。從年初至今來看,您是否傾向於超出 2024 年的指導或假設範圍?您是否設想任何類型的增量資本支出或前拉來支持近期更高的負載成長?或者是否更注重執行我們討論過的 RFP?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Chuck, do you want to do that one?

    查克,你想做那個嗎?

  • Charles Walworth - Chief Financial Officer

    Charles Walworth - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Sure. Constantine, so I think that the two are really related in that. And you take a step back, we've been experiencing this load growth now for -- this is not a new phenomenon for us for multiple years, really since coming out of 2020. So we've been planning for it all along, and there's definitely a component of that in the RFP that we're working through. But as Sean mentioned in his remarks, we remain in conversations with multiple large-load customers. And clearly, we'll address that as needed as the time comes.

    是的。當然。康斯坦丁,所以我認為兩者確實有聯繫。退後一步,我們現在已經經歷了這種負載增長——這對我們來說並不是什麼新現象,實際上是從 2020 年之後開始的。因此,我們一直在為此進行規劃,我們正在處理的 RFP 中肯定有其中的一個組成部分。但正如肖恩在演講中提到的,我們仍在與多個大負載客戶進行對話。顯然,我們將在時機成熟時根據需要解決這個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Jefferies.

    傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的朱利安·杜穆蘭·史密斯 (Julien Dumoulin-Smith)。

  • Brian J Russo - Analyst

    Brian J Russo - Analyst

  • It's Brian Russo on for Julien. Just on the load growth seems to be accelerating with each quarter. At what point are you going to put pressure on the projections in the IRP that the RFP is based on, meaning is there any scenario where you might need more -- you might have a greater capacity shortfall than what's identified and i.e., the more capacity and/or investment?

    布萊恩羅素 (Brian Russo) 替補朱利安 (Julien)。僅就負載成長而言,似乎每季都在加速。您將在什麼時候對 RFP 所基於的 IRP 中的預測施加壓力,這意味著是否存在您可能需要更多的情況 - 您的容量缺口可能比確定的更大,即需要更多的容量和/或投資?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Brian, great question. And so this is -- we file the IRP every three years in both states. As we look at this in the last IRP, there were a lot of assumptions in there. Some were aggressive, some were too conservative. And so as it all washes out, we have to reevaluate that.

    是的。布萊恩,好問題。所以,我們每三年在這兩個州提交一次 IRP。當我們在上一個 IRP 中查看這一點時,其中有許多假設。有些人過於激進,有些人過於保守。因此,當一切都消失後,我們必須重新評估這一點。

  • I think it's -- and I think the big assumption chain in there is that there was an assumption for a capacity reserve margin in the SPP of 18%. It actually turned out to be 16%. So that changes some of the numbers there. Notwithstanding those assumptions, you're exactly right. Growth is developing as we expected. And we're considering right now evaluating whether we should file a new IRP just to update some of that and look at some of that. That's something we have the ability to do, looking at availability and all sorts of other factors. But it is increasing.

    我認為——而且我認為其中的一個大假設鍊是,SPP 的產能儲備裕度假設為 18%。結果實際上是16%。所以這改變了那裡的一些數字。儘管有這些假設,你是完全正確的。成長正如我們預期的那樣發展。我們現在正在考慮評估是否應該提交新的 IRP,只是為了更新其中的一些內容並查看其中的一些內容。這是我們有能力做到的事情,會考慮可用性和各種其他因素。但它正在增加。

  • I think the other point I would just share with you on the load growth is we've been bullish for a number of years about the growth, and we're still bullish for the future. And -- but the growth isn't linear either. It kind of moves around, but we know it's going to be outsized from historical levels. And so that's the other variable we're managing here is trying to really pinpoint exactly what year, what quarter some of these really large loads are going to come into service. But your thesis is right. We're considering that right now, and we're contemplating all of that as we make our final determination around the results of the RFP.

    我想我要與大家分享的關於負載成長的另一點是,我們多年來一直看好負載成長,而且我們仍然看好未來。而且——但成長也不是線性的。它有點移動,但我們知道它的規模將超出歷史水平。因此,我們在這裡管理的另一個變數是試圖真正準確地確定這些非常大的負載中的一些將在哪一年、哪個季度投入使用。但你的論文是對的。我們現在正在考慮這一點,並且在我們圍繞 RFP 的結果做出最終決定時,我們正在考慮所有這些。

  • Brian J Russo - Analyst

    Brian J Russo - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then just a follow-up on the SPP ITP projects. Just preliminary, it looks as if OGE on its own has over $200 million of potential projects. I suppose this could be layered into your CapEx while also -- being incremental CapEx while also managing your retail customer rates because these are SPP transmission projects, right? So it's kind of spread out over the entire region in terms of cost and rate allocation. Is that accurate?

    好的。偉大的。然後是 SPP ITP 計畫的後續行動。初步來看,OGE 本身似乎擁有超過 2 億美元的潛在項目。我想這可以分層到您的資本支出中,同時也是增量資本支出,同時管理您的零售客戶費率,因為這些是 SPP 傳輸項目,對嗎?因此,就成本和費率分配而言,它是分散在整個地區的。準確嗎?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, that is accurate. So a large portion of that is allocated to others that would pay for that. So that -- you're exactly right. The project you're referring to, I think, is tentatively slated to be in service in '28. And so we'll wait, receive the NTC probably next month. And we'll work through refining our estimates and committing to that NTC, and then we'll update our numbers accordingly.

    是的,這是準確的。因此,其中很大一部分分配給了願意為此付費的其他人。所以——你是完全正確的。我認為你所指的項目暫定於 28 年投入使用。所以我們會等待,可能下個月收到 NTC。我們將完善我們的估計並致力於 NTC,然後我們將相應地更新我們的數字。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Travis Miller of Morningstar Inc.

    晨星公司的崔維斯‧米勒

  • Travis Miller - Analyst

    Travis Miller - Analyst

  • Just wondering on the data centers' large load, you have a lot of experience with that. There's been a lot of debate across the industry about how to spread those costs, how to make contracts. What are you seeing around what are you thinking in terms of contract structure as you get more interest from large load, whether it's the data centers or other large loads in your area?

    只是想知道資料中心的大負載,您對此有很多經驗。關於如何分攤這些成本、如何簽訂合同,整個產業存在著許多爭論。當您對大型負載(無論是資料中心還是您所在地區的其他大型負載)產生更多興趣時,您對合約結構有何看法?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think the way we're thinking about it is we want to make sure that this is low debt, is accretive to our existing asset base, to our customers. We want to make sure that, in particular, our residential customers aren't impacted by some of these large loads. And so you -- we're working with a lot of people to make sure you -- I think it really comes down to cost allocation, make sure you get the allocation of the cost right. That's how we're thinking about it. Whether that ends up being a special contract or a specific rate tariff, we'll work that through with our commission.

    我認為我們考慮的方式是我們希望確保這是低債務,能夠增加我們現有的資產基礎和我們的客戶。我們特別希望確保我們的住宅客戶不會受到其中一些大負載的影響。因此,我們正在與許多人合作,以確保您,我認為這實際上取決於成本分配,確保正確分配成本。我們就是這麼想的。無論最終是特殊合約還是特定費率關稅,我們都將透過我們的佣金來解決。

  • Travis Miller - Analyst

    Travis Miller - Analyst

  • Okay. So that's something that has to go through the commission. It's not something you can do bilateral?

    好的。所以這是必須經過委員會的事情。這不是雙邊可以做的事嗎?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, we could do that with a special contract.

    好吧,我們可以透過一份特殊合約來做到這一點。

  • Travis Miller - Analyst

    Travis Miller - Analyst

  • Yes. Okay, okay, okay. And then just real quick, the commercial side, is there any more detail you could give around what type of customers or what sector the most growth is you're seeing on that commercial customer class?

    是的。好吧,好吧,好吧。然後,在商業方面,您是否可以提供更多有關您在商業客戶類別中看到的增長最快的客戶類型或部門的更多詳細資訊?

  • Charles Walworth - Chief Financial Officer

    Charles Walworth - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So it is pretty broad-based across the sector. But clearly, the driver within that has been the crypto mining load that we've had now for quite some time. But again, we're seeing growth across all sectors, including residential, industrial. And that really spurs a lot of the smaller commercial-type load as well. So we're seeing really quite a nice mix.

    是的。因此,它在整個行業中具有相當廣泛的基礎。但顯然,其中的驅動因素是我們已經存在相當長一段時間的加密貨幣挖礦負載。但我們再次看到所有產業的成長,包括住宅、工業。這確實也刺激了許多較小的商業類型負載。所以我們看到了非常好的組合。

  • Travis Miller - Analyst

    Travis Miller - Analyst

  • Okay. So you're still seeing growth in that crypto area then?

    好的。那麼您仍然看到該加密領域的成長嗎?

  • Charles Walworth - Chief Financial Officer

    Charles Walworth - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, we are.

    是的,我們是。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Paul Fremont of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc.

    Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. 的 Paul Fremont

  • Paul Fairmont - Analyst

    Paul Fairmont - Analyst

  • Congratulations on a great quarter. I was wondering if you could size the amount of generation that would be required if the Stillwater data center were to move forward?

    恭喜您度過了一個美好的季度。我想知道如果斯蒂爾沃特資料中心要向前發展,您是否可以確定所需的發電量?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Paul, I wish I could, but we're not at liberty to disclose that right now. I'm sorry.

    保羅,我希望可以,但我們現在不能透露這一點。對不起。

  • Paul Fairmont - Analyst

    Paul Fairmont - Analyst

  • Okay. And can you give an indication of how many square feet is involved in the project?

    好的。您能否透露該專案涉及多少平方英尺?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Give us a little bit of time here, Paul. We're really kind of locked down on this one, okay? I'm sorry. Paul, I'm sorry. I just -- we're not allowed to talk much about it, okay?

    保羅,請給我們一點時間。我們真的被鎖定了,好嗎?對不起。保羅,對不起。我只是──我們不被允許談論太多,好嗎?

  • Paul Fairmont - Analyst

    Paul Fairmont - Analyst

  • Got it. When do you expect the OCC to take up your settlement?

    知道了。您預計 OCC 何時會接受您的和解申請?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, I think we still expect it this year. The issue that is out there has nothing to do with the settlement of the recovery and the rates or anything like that. The issue is around cost allocation of some larger loads that we serve -- that customers have come to us and want us to serve. And so I still expect that to be done this year, and we'll move on down the road. And as Chuck mentioned, we implemented the rates July 1, and so we've reserved all that, and we'll be ready to go.

    是的。正如我在準備好的演講中提到的,我認為我們今年仍然期待它。那裡的問題與復甦和利率或類似問題的解決無關。問題在於我們所服務的一些較大負載的成本分配——客戶來找我們並希望我們提供服務。因此,我仍然希望今年能夠完成這項任務,我們將繼續前進。正如 Chuck 所提到的,我們在 7 月 1 日實施了費率,所以我們已經保留了所有這些,我們將準備好出發。

  • Paul Fairmont - Analyst

    Paul Fairmont - Analyst

  • And then last question for me. If we think about the potential for additional CapEx, what percent of that CapEx should we think of as being financed with equity?

    然後是我的最後一個問題。如果我們考慮額外資本支出的潛力,我們應該考慮透過股權融資佔資本支出的百分之幾?

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think -- good question. We haven't got there yet, right, Paul. And so I don't want to get ahead of ourselves here in terms of start thinking about financing. We're pretty intentional about making sure we have the regulatory compact down first before we put it in our plans, and then we'll explain the financing. But longer term, as we go forward, we recognize that our ratings are important to us. And so something that supports a 17% FFO-to-debt is probably the way you ought to think about it.

    是的。我認為——好問題。我們還沒有到達那裡,對吧,保羅。因此,我不想在開始考慮融資方面走得太過分。我們非常有意確保在將監管契約納入計劃之前先將其落實下來,然後我們將解釋融資情況。但從長遠來看,隨著我們的前進,我們認識到我們的評級對我們很重要。因此,支持 17% FFO 債務比的東西可能是您應該考慮的方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Sean Trauschke for closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。現在我想請肖恩·特勞施克 (Sean Trauschke) 發表結束語。

  • Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Sean Trauschke - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Corinne, and thank you all for your time today and your interest in OGE Energy Corp. Hope you all have a wonderful day. Thank you.

    謝謝 Corinne,謝謝大家今天抽出寶貴的時間以及對 OGE Energy Corp. 的興趣。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

    感謝您參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程式。您現在可以斷開連線。