OFG Bancorp (OFG) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good morning. Thank you for joining OFG Bancorp's conference call. My name is Christie, and I will be your operator today.

  • Our speakers are José Rafael Fernandez, Chief Executive Officer and Vice Chair of the Board of Directors; and Maritza Arizmendi, Chief Financial Officer.

  • A presentation accompanies today's remarks. It can be found on our Investor Relations website on the home page in the What's New box or on the Quarterly Results page.

  • This call may feature certain forward-looking statements about management's goals, plans and expectations. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties outlined in the Risk Factors section of OFG's SEC filings. Actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated. We disclaim any obligation to update information disclosed in this call as a result of developments that occur afterwards. (Operator Instructions)

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Fernandez.

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Please turn to Page 3 of our conference call presentation. We had an outstanding performance in the second quarter, generating $0.78 per share. This reflects our larger scale and our focus on digital utilization and customer service differentiation.

  • From a big-picture perspective, it also reflects several key factors that are coinciding at this time that puts OFG in an excellent strategic position. One, Puerto Rico's economy is clearly benefiting from the massive amount of federal reconstruction funds now starting to be received as well as COVID stimulus funds. It's important to note that these funds are more meaningful here as compared to mainland states given how reconstruction funds and the amount of stimulus payments compared to average income levels on the island as well as the size of our economy. Two, Puerto Rico has managed well the COVID pandemic. And today, vaccination levels are in the top quartile of U.S. states and territories with 55% of the population fully vaccinated and 63% with at least one dose. And three, OFG is operating in a much different competitive environment than years past with only 3 commercial banks serving the market. All this continues to validate the comments I made last quarter regarding our optimism on Puerto Rico's economy and OFG's future. Our second quarter results confirm this across all businesses.

  • Let's take a look at our income statement as compared to the first quarter. Total core revenues were $133 million, an increase of more than 4%. Results were enhanced by a 12% reduction in cost of funds. Interest income grew more than 2%. Banking and financial services revenues rose more than 5% due to increased economic activity. Asset quality trends continue to improve. As a result, provision for credit losses was a net benefit of $8.3 million. Earnings also benefited by our recent deployment of excess capital to redeem all 3 of our outstanding series of preferred stock which eliminated $1.6 million in quarterly preferred dividends. We will continue to explore ways to deploy this excess liquidity.

  • Looking at the June 30 balance sheet, customer deposits increased $350 million to $9.1 billion, reflecting even greater liquidity on the part of both commercial and consumer customers. As a result, both cash and assets grew. Loans declined 1.2% to $6.4 billion, mainly due to paydowns in our residential mortgage portfolio and forgiveness of our first round of PPP loans. Most of that decline was offset by growth in commercial and auto loan balances. New loan origination increased 28% from the first quarter to $674 million. We're starting to see optimism on the part of our commercial clients. Originations now total more than $1.2 billion as of the first half of the year. All this bodes well for the second half of the year.

  • Please turn to Page 4. At OFG, we believe better banking is built upon fulfilling our purpose, namely helping our customers, our people and our communities achieve their financial goals. During the second quarter, for our customers, we quickly processed forgiveness for about 75% of our first round of our PPP loans, once again using our proprietary all-digital solution. Our business model is putting us closer to existing and potential commercial clients to help them finance their operations and strategies. As part of this effort, we launched a series of online educational videos to help small businesses improve their capabilities and optimize their business potential. Even though the pandemic is subsiding here, digital utilization of our banking services has continued at high levels among both our commercial and retail customers. Online and mobile banking, 30- and 90-day utilization, continue well above pre-pandemic levels. This validates our long-standing digital strategy and its growing acceptance by our customers and the market in general.

  • For our people, we continue to facilitate COVID vaccinations. As of Monday, 81% of our team members are already fully vaccinated. We expect to reach 90% vaccination levels during the third quarter. In 2015, we started a college scholarship program for the children of our staff. This year, we're proud to announce that we increased the average scholarship awarded by 19%.

  • For our communities, we have been working on several new corporate social responsibility programs. One program launched in the second quarter helps high school students in lower-income communities to improve their personal and technological development.

  • We are extremely proud of all these achievements. At the end of the day, there is nothing more rewarding than being part of a team that delivers on its purpose. This quarter's overall performance energizes us at OFG to work harder and to aspire for more.

  • Now here is Maritza to go over the financials in more detail.

  • Maritza Arizmendi Diaz - CFO

  • Thank you, José. Please turn to Page 5 to review our financial highlights. Total core revenues were $133 million. That's an increase of about 4% from both the first and year ago quarters. Most of the increase from the first quarter was due to higher income from non-PCD loans. This reflects higher revenues from commercial and auto loans, which more than offset lower interest income from paydowns in residential mortgages and forgiven PPP loans. Net interest income also benefited by approximately $7,000 due to 1 extra day compared to the first quarter.

  • In addition, total core revenues also reflected growth in banking services and financial services. Revenues from banking services grew 11% from the first quarter and 34% year-over-year. This was due to expanding economic activity. Revenue from financial services increased 12% from the first quarter and 30% year-over-year. This was largely due to increased asset values and higher commercial insurance income.

  • Noninterest expenses totaled $83 million. That is an increase of $5 million from the first quarter and a decline of $2.8 million year-over-year. Second quarter expenses reflected our previously announced cost savings, a $2.2 million technology write-down and higher variable expenses related to increased revenues.

  • Adjusting for the write-down, our efficiency ratio would have been similar to the first quarter. We continue to see expenses in line with our previously announced plans for the year. Our goal by the end of 2022 is to continue to improve our efficiency ratio to the mid- to lower 50% range.

  • Return on average assets was 1.58%. This was significantly higher than the first year and a year ago quarters. It also exceeded our baseline target of more than 1%. Return on average tangible common equity was 17.8%. It was also up significantly from the first year -- for the first and year ago quarters and also exceeded our baseline target of more than 12%.

  • We continue to build capital. Tangible book value per share was $18.13. There is an increase of 4% from the first quarter and 13% from the year ago quarter. This is the highest increase sequentially over the last 5 quarters.

  • Please turn to Page 6 to review our operational highlights. Average loan balances totaled $6.6 billion. That's a decline of $37 million from the first quarter due primarily to residential mortgage paydowns and PPP forgiveness, as I had mentioned before. This was mainly offset by new commercial and auto loans. The change in mix enabled us to expand loan yields to 6.69%, 8 basis points higher than the first quarter.

  • Higher levels of residential mortgage paydowns reflect increased liquidity on the part of consumers. Our residential mortgage portfolio consists of legacy Oriental mortgage loans and mortgage loans from BBVA and Scotiabank acquisition. Almost all our new residential mortgage loan origination are conforming U.S. agency paper, so we don't typically add new production to our residential loan portfolio. Instead, we convert most production into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and sell them. And we convert the FHA loans into Ginnie Mae and retain them in our securities portfolio. During the second quarter, we added $54 million of the Ginnie Mae securities into our investment portfolio.

  • Total new loan origination was $674 million. That is an increase of 28% from the first quarter. There are gains in all major categories. This was led by commercial and auto, followed by consumer and residential mortgage. Approximately 50% of new commercial loans were for new money to expand business operations, building new stores, warehouses, buying inventory or making acquisitions.

  • Average core deposits totaled $8.96 billion. That's an increase of 5% or $427 million from the first quarter. Increases in noninterest-bearing accounts, savings accounts and NOW accounts were partially offset by the decline in customer CDs. Core deposit costs continue to fall. They were 38 basis points in the second quarter. That is a reduction of 9 basis points from the first quarter. This reflects rate reductions and the continued maturing of older higher-priced CDs. As a result of the increase in deposits, average cash balances totaled $2.5 billion. That is an increase of 14% or $350 million from the first quarter. Our current strategy is to continue to look for opportunities to deploy this excess liquidity through lending, capital actions or into investment once interest rates move up.

  • Net interest margin was 4.22%, a decline of only 4 basis points from the first quarter. The increased amount of cash reduced NIM by 13 basis points. Most of that was offset by 9 basis points from the lower cost of deposits. We believe NIM is still in the range of our expectations for remaining approximately level this year.

  • Please turn to Page 7 to review our credit quality and capital strength. Asset quality trends continue to improve. Reconstruction and stimulus funds provided significant liquidity to businesses and individuals. Some used this to pay down their loans and lines of credit. Our net charge-offs hit a historical low of only 13 basis points. The early and total delinquency rate at 1.86% and 3.90%, respectively, were at their lowest level in 5 quarters. Non-performing loan rates at 2.06% was also at its lowest level in 5 quarters, if you exclude the effect of our pandemic-related deferral program. As a result of this, provision for credit losses was a net benefit of $8.3 million. This is based on $2.1 million in net charge-offs and a $10.4 million net reserve release.

  • Allowance coverage continues elevated. There are still concerns about COVID uncertainty for a consistent, robust economic recovery. Our allowance coverage was 2.95% on a reported basis and 3.06%, excluding PPP loans.

  • The CET ratio continued to climb, reaching 13.95%.

  • Stockholders' equity was $1.8 billion, a decline of $28 million from the first quarter. This was due to the redemption of preferred stock, Series A and B, and a good portion of which was offset by the increase in retained earnings. The tangible common equity ratio continue to climb to 9.06%. Now here is José.

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • Thank you, Maritza. Please turn to Page 8 for our conclusion. Our performance this quarter reflects what we had anticipated to see a year after the Scotia acquisition. Our larger scale, business approach and improved strategic positioning is coming to fruition, adding to our franchise value.

  • Following the first quarter and now this quarter, we're seeing incremental optimism on the part of the business sector to invest for the future, slowly but surely, giving us confirmation of Puerto Rico's economic revival. We at OFG are more than ready. We have a lot of dry powder in the form of cash to deploy for growth on the loan side, but we will also continue to look closely at capital management strategies. Thanks to all our team members who have helped our customers achieve their goals.

  • That ends our formal presentation. Thank you for listening. Operator, please open the call for question and answer.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And your first question is from Alex Twerdahl of Piper Sandler.

  • Alexander Roberts Huxley Twerdahl - MD & Senior Analyst

  • First question for me. I just want to hone in on the commercial loan growth that you had this quarter. Based on some of your commentary, I think I know the answer, but do you think that we've now reached and are past the inflection point on commercial loan growth?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • So when we look -- we're -- definitely, we're very happy with the commercial loan growth that we've seen in this quarter. I think when we look at our pipelines and the activity that we're seeing on both the small and the middle commercial businesses, we are encouraged with the activity that we're seeing. And as I said in my remarks, we're seeing incremental optimism from the business sector, getting ready for what we're starting to expect, which is a more robust economic revival. So I think the business optimism is certainly supported by the reconstruction funds coming in and the economic revival.

  • And last but not least is our business model. I think the fact that we kind of focus on doing it fast, easy and well done, and we have a business model that gets us a lot closer to our commercial clients is actually getting good traction, and we're benefiting from that, too.

  • So if this is the inflection point, I wish I could give you the convincing answer that this is the moment. Who knows? We'll probably see it with a rearview mirror, but it certainly starts to look incrementally more positive and hopefully will continue for the years to come as the economy continues to move from rebuilding to expansion.

  • Alexander Roberts Huxley Twerdahl - MD & Senior Analyst

  • And then if we just dig into the commercial growth a little bit more, can you break out what was construction versus C&I or CRE?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • I would say most of it is C&I. When we look at our business model, there are some loans, commercial loans that are construction, mostly businesses constructing new warehouses or building new stores as demand has grown and they need the capacity. Those are the larger kind of clients. The smaller clients are mostly C&I lines to operate their businesses and do some small or medium-sized acquisitions.

  • So when we look at it, I would say 50% of our originations are for what we call new money, meaning new money by businesses to be deployed into their own businesses. The other 50%, it's more a refinancing and just going through their cycle, their business cycle. So again, that's how we break it down. And when we look at the large commercial, apart from what I just mentioned on construction, most of it is C&I lending businesses that are expanding their operations as the economy grows.

  • Alexander Roberts Huxley Twerdahl - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Got it. And then just switching gears to the NIM. Maritza, maybe you could just quickly break out the contribution from PPP and NII this quarter?

  • Maritza Arizmendi Diaz - CFO

  • Well, yes. At the end, PPP loan program is going down as we continue to forgive loans. And for this quarter, there were only an incremental effect of 2 basis points as we have some forgiveness that increased our fees there. It was about $400,000 only. So it's not significant during this quarter, only 2 basis points. Did you get the answer, Alex? Are you there?

  • Alexander Roberts Huxley Twerdahl - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Can you hear me?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes, we can.

  • Maritza Arizmendi Diaz - CFO

  • Yes, we can.

  • Alexander Roberts Huxley Twerdahl - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Yes. I did get the answer, Maritza. And then you guys are now sitting on 27% of your balance sheet as just cash. Is there any update to the strategy with respect to activating some of that huge cash position?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes. I mean the update is we're going to take a look at it now. And at the end of the month of July, we're going to review our capital deployment options, and we'll certainly communicate any decision made to The Street accordingly. So yes, we're clear, Alex. We have a significant cash position. We have strong earnings and strong earnings momentum, so we're building a lot of capital also. So we get it, and we'll convey the message to our Board, and we'll come back with a decision on how to continue to move forward on our capital deployment strategies in a more consequential way than probably earlier anticipated.

  • Alexander Roberts Huxley Twerdahl - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. So when you talk about capital and just continuing on that theme, I think earlier this year, you'd sort of alluded to reassessing the dividend for a second time this year as well as -- I mean are you now saying there's maybe some other possibilities on the table, like a buyback, for example?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes. Well, we always have everything on the table. We -- when I -- when we look at this. So we'll look at everything again. And as I said, we'll -- we know how things are moving along in terms of our performance and in terms of our capital growth. So we'll be more focused, if you want to call it, to look at all options at this time.

  • Alexander Roberts Huxley Twerdahl - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Understood. And then back on to the margin. Just when I look at the cash position, sort of capital deployment aside, is there any update to the strategy of maybe activating some of that cash with additional securities purchases? I know loan growth is kind of what we're all hoping for or repaying some -- being more aggressive on reducing the cost of funds with some of that cash, anything like that?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes. So the way we look at deploying cash to the investment portfolio, we're going to be very patient given where levels of interest rates are today. We mentioned in the call that we're -- the FHA loans that we originate, we are converting them to Ginnies, and we keep them on our books, on the investment portfolio. So we're just not going to just go out there and deploy cash into long-duration, low-yielding, mortgage-backed securities. So we'll be patient there.

  • We are definitely looking into deploying our cash into lending activities. We see momentum certainly on the commercial side, as I mentioned. We also see good momentum on the consumer. And we've seen for a while now, higher levels of origination on the auto side. So we'll continue to deploy there. And then we'll look at the mortgage origination business also and see if we can -- with home prices, not only stabilizing, but starting to increase in price across all areas, we might start looking more seriously into nonconforming lending strategies for us to keep in the books. So those are all in play from the lending side. And I mentioned the capital management strategies that we're going to take a look at it now.

  • Cost of funds, yes, we will continue to look at it. You saw the effect this quarter. We'll see additional effects in the next quarter, and it's something that we continue to look. I think you guys need to understand that we're also operating in a 3-bank market. And that's new for us in Puerto Rico. It's new for everybody out there, looking at the island banking market. And I think we have great opportunities here to generate above-average returns across the board.

  • Alexander Roberts Huxley Twerdahl - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Right. And then just as I think about cash on the balance sheet with the child tax credit starting to hit people's bank accounts, I think, in the last week, at least here, is that the same in Puerto Rico? And would that suggest that cash balances should actually just continue to grow until -- or at least over the next couple of months?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • So it has significant benefits for Puerto Rico, but it's not necessarily immediate. The way it's going to be processed -- remember, we don't pay federal taxes, so the way it's going to be processed is probably going to have an effect later in 2022. But it definitely has an impact in Puerto Rico because the limitations in terms of the caps in dollar amounts and the amount of kids that will qualify was eliminated for Puerto Rico, and it was paired to the U.S. states. So from that perspective, the dollar amount that will benefit the island will be higher than in years past because more kids qualify. And certainly, the income levels in Puerto Rico make it pretty widespread in terms of the impact in terms of the families. It's just that the process is not going to be equal in terms of the cash deposits. It's not going to be equal to the one in the States, so there's a little bit of a change there. But otherwise, it will have an eventual important impact.

  • Alexander Roberts Huxley Twerdahl - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Understood. And then just switching gears to the …

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • I was just going to say, Alex, I think that we're also looking for the consumer to start deploying the cash also. And I think we, this quarter, got benefits from the second, third or fourth wave of COVID stimulus, right, for the individuals. And we're also seeing on the commercial side how they're paying their lines of credit and bringing them down to 0 balances because of the excess liquidity they have.

  • Our expectation is in the second half of the year, we will see some of that excess liquidity on the consumer and commercial to be deployed incrementally into consumers or into consumption or in the businesses that they operate in. So our expectation is not for continued deposit growth from the consumer and commercial, as we've seen in the several quarters past.

  • Alexander Roberts Huxley Twerdahl - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Got it. And is -- in terms of sort of the macro commentary, is the expectation for the expanded unemployment benefits to expire in September? Has there been any talk down there about that deadline changing, either bringing it forward or anything we should be thinking of?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • I haven't heard anything. I suspect it's going to end now at the deadline, and I have not heard anything specific on that. I'm really trying to stay away from listening to too many politicians.

  • Alexander Roberts Huxley Twerdahl - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then just switching gears to the ACL a little bit, you're still over 3%, excluding PPP. Charge-offs look a lot like any other bank, quite frankly, very low, historical low for you guys. How are you thinking about the ACL right now? Are there still some quantitative or rather qualitative factors that you guys are incorporating? Still anything you're sort of waiting to see before releasing reserves? How do you think that's just going to sort of gradually grind lower?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • Let me give you my big picture, and I'll let Maritza give you the details. But I agree with you, and we've said it in the past. Now that Puerto Rico has kind of turned the corner from 2 decades of economic contraction, and we're seeing the start of the revival. our bank's financial performance all throughout the last 2 decades has been pretty good in spite of that economic contraction. Now that we have the revival, I think credit trends are going to trend towards the peers in the States. And the -- and I agree with your assessment that our numbers for this quarter certainly are equal or better than some of the states -- the banks in the States. We look forward to continue to confirm that that's the trend in the quarters to come given what we're seeing on the economy.

  • Regarding the ACL, I'll let Maritza give you the details.

  • Maritza Arizmendi Diaz - CFO

  • Well, as we mentioned, Alex, I think that the level of allowance that we have at this point is still elevated. And as we continue seeing credit trends at this level and the economic revival continue being tangible for everybody, we see our allowance coverage gravitated towards the levels of day 1 and with a good probability that it will be better than that -- lower than day 1 accounting. But we need to continue to seem consistent, and this may be sustainable to the time to start releasing a potential qualitative adjustment that we still have within the allowance.

  • Alexander Roberts Huxley Twerdahl - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then when I look at fee income and I look especially at the level of the banking service revenues, struck me as high this quarter, but then I also realize we've never really seen a clean quarter post-Scotia. So the 18.2, is that kind of the right run rate to start at? Is that a normalized level?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • So again, right on point on your comment, Alex. The COVID pandemic kind of delayed the full kind of momentum that we brought in with the Scotia acquisition. So this is the first quarter where we're seeing all systems go with the Scotia acquisition.

  • When we look at banking service revenues, that is also the case. And that's what encourages us because it has a lot to do with business activity, but it also has to do with a larger scale. We also need to get accustomed to those levels. I don't want to go out on a limb and say this is the going rate, but it certainly starts to look like it is.

  • Alexander Roberts Huxley Twerdahl - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Great. And then just last question for me. When you think about the efficiency ratio target of kind of mid- to low 50s by the end of 2022, does that -- do we need to see some rate hikes to kind of help that out? Or is that something that can be sort of achieved in the current environment?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes. We certainly need the rate hikes. In a growing environment -- in a growing business environment, it's very, very difficult to just reach the low 50s efficiency ratio by just bringing down expenses. And as I said in quarters past, we're making some investments in technology and digital, and that will certainly have an impact there.

  • So yes, we do need -- we need some help from interest rates going up. And that's why I mentioned earlier on the question regarding deployment of liquidity, we expect -- even though we've been wrong so far, we expect interest rates to inch up and be more compelling for us to invest in the investment portfolio and also get a little bit better returns on our variable rate commercial loans that we have in the books. And that should impact and help improve our efficiency ratio to the mid- to low 50s. That's our expectation.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And your next question is from Jon Krautmann of Rubric.

  • Jonathan Krautmann;Rubric Capital Management LP;Partner

  • You mentioned there's only 3 commercial banks on the island. How would you characterize the competition for deposits? And what does that mean, in your opinion, for interest rate sensitivities for us in the future?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • So competition for deposits is strong. We were -- particularly on the commercial side. So when I -- when we look at the consumer side, it's the expected competitive landscape of making sure that we serve our customers, on the individuals. But on the commercial side, it's keen. And there's some, I would say, above level -- aggressive levels of pricing on the commercial side.

  • What does that mean for sensitivities into the future? I think we will have lower for longer when interest rates go up. That's how I see it.

  • Jonathan Krautmann;Rubric Capital Management LP;Partner

  • And switching to commercial loan growth, there was a discussion there with Alex around some of the inputs there. But with respect to construction, which has tended to be some of the biggest multipliers in terms of the economic activity, construction is, when do you think we see larger-scale construction projects really start to take shape on the island?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • It's all dependent on how CDBG funds are deployed in the island. They're starting to be deployed. There are some federal contracts that are being approved and signed. So my expectation is in the second half of the year, we'll start seeing those and incrementally growing going forward, but hard to be specific to your question.

  • Jonathan Krautmann;Rubric Capital Management LP;Partner

  • Third question is on loan loss provisions. Obviously, we saw some progress there. Was there -- can you help us out in just understanding some of the macroeconomic changes, if those were incorporated into the model that helped drive some of the release there in reserves? And if things continue where we are right now, should we expect that to continue with reversals in the back half?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • There are no changes on macroeconomic assumptions. The changes that you're seeing on the provision is basically based on the credit performance of our loan portfolios. And since they improved, we -- our model just spits out a release. We take care of the charge-offs, and then we run the model. And it spits out the provision number, which, in this case, was a negative provisioning because of -- as Alex mentioned, we are having a low level of credit losses. And we see our delinquency levels at very low levels also historically as well as NPLs. So that's how it works out. We do not tinker with the economic assumptions. That is something that -- we do that when we have a shock to the system, and that shock happened last year.

  • Jonathan Krautmann;Rubric Capital Management LP;Partner

  • So is it fair to say then if third parties, like Moody's Economics, were to upgrade the island, their economic forecast, whether it's because of a debt deal resolution or other macroeconomic areas that are improving on the island that would -- as that's incorporated into our model that, that would potentially accelerate loan loss provision reversal?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • I think you're looking too much into it, honestly. I think the third parties, in this case, Moody's or whoever, they just run their macroeconomics for the island, and we discuss it with them. And we include those assumptions into our model, and we run the allowance calculation. But don't make too much about all these modeling and all these economic assumptions and all that stuff because there has to be a complete shift in those -- in the economic reality for those assumptions to change dramatically, one quarter to other. So at the end of the day, it's about primarily how your loan portfolio from a credit perspective is performing. And that's how we -- that's what moves the needle.

  • Jonathan Krautmann;Rubric Capital Management LP;Partner

  • Got it. Okay. And then a bigger-picture question. With some of the efforts around the G20 and the global minimum corporate tax rate, if that were to proceed -- and there seems to be some barriers within various countries within the G20 and blessing, something like that. But if that were to proceed and we were to see a minimum corporate tax rate, how does that affect investment on the island? Does that impact prospective investment from, say, pharmaceuticals that talk about reinvesting in the island?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • That's for a higher IQ. I am a normal level IQ guy. I don't have the answer for that. Sorry.

  • Jonathan Krautmann;Rubric Capital Management LP;Partner

  • Got it. Okay. And then just last question, again bigger picture on the island. What are you sort of seeing out of the local -- the Puerto Rican legislature and the governor's office in efforts to promote a climate that's conducive for mainland and foreign investment in Puerto Rico?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes. I said earlier, I don't -- I try to stay away from the political landscape as far away as possible, but the short answer to it is nothing.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And your next question is from Anne Wickland of Easterly Investment.

  • Anne Wickland;Easterly Investment Partners;Analyst

  • I wanted to circle back to the CET ratio (sic) [CET1 ratio]. So last quarter, you gave us a target of more -- like 11% to 12%, and you're currently sitting at about 14%. So first, can you quantify how much excess capital we will have and sort of the timing on garnering that excess capital?

  • And then second, and Alex kind of touched on this question, but I wanted to ask other possibilities. We talked -- you talked about loan growth and nonconforming loan growth -- or nonconforming loans. Is M&A on the table at all or maybe a small financial technology bolt-on to help build out your customer service offering?

  • And then another thing you haven't talked about in a while is your U.S. investments and syndicated loans. Just can you kind of provide some color on that?

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes, sure. So you asked me 3 questions. I hope I can remember all 3. If I don't, please remind me of the questions. So I'll start with the CET (sic) [CET1] question first. As I said earlier, we know we're building capital quite fast given our results and -- so far in the first half of the year. So yes, we do recognize that we have excess capital. It's around 2.5, 300 basis points (sic) [250 to 300 basis points] of excess capital that we can manage on. So we know what we need to do. And in terms of deploying that capital, I don't want to go into the specifics here, but I can tell you that, at the Board, we're going to be looking at this very closely from a capital management perspective and strategies to deploy that capital.

  • So the second question was regarding M&A and if there's any opportunity for us to do M&A. I don't see any M&A opportunity here in Puerto Rico. Opportunities in the States, it's something that we're not right now focused on in terms of M&A. So that's not something that we have up our cards.

  • And then I think the third question you asked me was regarding the U.S. loan program that we had launched in 2017 and kind of give you an update. So we continue to build that book. It's part of our diversification -- geographic diversification. I think it's the right thing to do. We have, I would say, right now, 50% of the book is middle-market loans. The other 50% are small commercial loans that we have a partnership with a bank in the States. So that's kind of how we're going at it. We're slowly but surely building that. Certainly, the numbers in this quarter from that bucket did not do any dent on the -- did not affect significantly the balance of our loan book or the commercial book. Most of the originations are small commercial loans that -- mostly lines of credits and really did not affect the loan balances in this quarter. But that's how we see that, and we continue to methodically build that business as part of our longer-term strategies. Did I miss any of your questions?

  • Anne Wickland;Easterly Investment Partners;Analyst

  • No, that was great.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to José for closing remarks.

  • Jose Rafael Fernandez - CEO & Vice Chairman

  • Thank you, operator. Thanks again to all our team members who have helped our customers through the pandemic and done a great job in the first half of the year. And thanks to all our stakeholders who have all -- have listened in. So have a great day, and looking forward for the next quarter call.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.