Orion SA (OEC) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Orion SA third quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Chris Kapsch, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

各位好，歡迎參加 Orion SA 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。現在我將把會議交給主持人，投資者關係副總裁克里斯·卡普施。請繼續。

Thank you, Carrie. Good morning, everyone. This is Chris Kapsch, VP of Investor Relations at Orion, and welcome to our conference call to discuss third quarter 2025 earnings results. Joining the call are Corning Painter, Orion's Chief Executive Officer; and Jeff Glajch, our Chief Financial Officer. We issued our third quarter results after the market closed yesterday, and we have posted a slide presentation to the Investor Relations portion of our website.

謝謝你，凱莉。各位早安。以下是 Orion 的投資者關係副總裁 Chris Kapsch，歡迎參加我們的電話會議，討論 2025 年第三季的收益結果。參加此次電話會議的有 Orion 執行長 Corning Painter 和財務長 Jeff Glajch。我們在昨天股市收盤後發布了第三季業績報告，並將幻燈片簡報發佈到了我們網站的投資者關係部分。

We will be referencing this deck during the call. Before we begin, we are again obligated to remind you that some of the comments made on today's call are forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to the risks and uncertainties as described in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and our actual results may differ from those described during the call. In addition, all forward-looking statements are made as of today, November 5, 2025. Orion is not obligated to update any forward-looking statements based on new circumstances or revised expectations.

我們將在通話過程中參考這份資料。在開始之前，我們必須再次提醒各位，今天電話會議上的一些評論屬於前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的風險和不確定性的影響，我們的實際結果可能與電話會議中描述的結果不同。此外，所有前瞻性聲明均截至 2025 年 11 月 5 日。Orion沒有義務根據新的情況或修改後的預期更新任何前瞻性聲明。

All non-GAAP financial measures discussed during this call are reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the tables attached to our press release and the quarterly earnings deck. Any non-GAAP financial measures presented in these materials should not be considered as alternatives to financial measures required by GAAP.

本次電話會議中討論的所有非GAAP財務指標均已與新聞稿和季度收益報告中附表中最直接可比較的GAAP指標進行了核對。這些資料中列示的任何非公認會計準則財務指標均不應被視為公認會計準則所要求的財務指標的替代指標。

And with that, I will turn the call to Corning Painter.

接下來，我將把電話轉接給康寧油漆公司。

Good morning. Thank you, Chris, and thank you all for taking the time to join our conference call. Before getting into the Q3 review, I'm excited to announce that we've hired a new CFO, a replacement for Jeff, who previously announced his intention to retire. The formal announcement will be made shortly. We had a strong slate of candidates, both internal and external.

早安.謝謝克里斯，也謝謝各位抽空參加我們的電話會議。在進行第三季回顧之前，我很高興地宣布，我們聘請了一位新的財務官，接替先前宣布退休的傑夫。正式公告將於近期發布。我們擁有一群優秀的候選人，包括內部候選人和外部候選人。

We chose a candidate with 30-plus years of financial and business leadership experience, including the past 15 years in the chemical industry. He will start on December 1. Jeff has agreed to stay with Orion through the end of the year, and will be available for further transition support through Q1 2026.

我們選擇了一位擁有 30 多年財務和商業領導經驗的候選人，其中包括過去 15 年在化學行業的經驗。他將於12月1日開始上任。Jeff 已同意留在 Orion 工作到年底，並將於 2026 年第一季提供進一步的過渡支援。

In today's call, I'll touch on Q3 results at a very high level, not the performance we expected, and certainly, we possessed much greater earnings power. Still, there are some constructive points for investors to consider.

在今天的電話會議上，我將簡要介紹第三季業績，但實際業績並未達到我們的預期，而且我們原本擁有更大的獲利能力。不過，投資人仍可考慮以下幾個建設性意見。

Then I want to discuss the business environment, including recent headwinds. Cutting to the chase, our biggest challenge has been soft demand in our key markets. Various Specialty end markets are being impacted by global industrial activity malaise as reflected in soft PMI readings.

然後我想討論商業環境，包括最近遇到的不利因素。直截了當地說，我們面臨的最大挑戰是主要市場需求疲軟。疲軟的採購經理人指數 (PMI) 反映出，全球工業活動低迷，對各種專業終端市場造成了影響。

In our normally resilient Rubber segment, and despite solid tire sell-through, tire production in our key markets is down. When compared to what we would consider more normalized levels, tire production in the US is down about 29%, and the decline is 20% across Europe over the same time period, but closer to 35% in Western Europe. While there are reasons to believe demand will inflect positively, we are in no way counting on improved conditions. We are taking action based on the current reality.

在我們通常具有韌性的橡膠行業，儘管輪胎銷售情況良好，但我們主要市場的輪胎產量卻有所下降。與我們認為更正常的水平相比，美國的輪胎產量下降了約 29%，同期歐洲的輪胎產量下降了 20%，但西歐的降幅接近 35%。雖然有理由相信需求會向好轉，但我們絕不指望情況會有所改善。我們正根據當前實際情況採取行動。

Accordingly, we're continuing to focus on self-help actions, the things we can control, some significant, that are intended to improve Orion's structural cost and overall competitiveness. I'll discuss more on this shortly.

因此，我們將繼續專注於自助行動，即我們能夠控制的一些重要事項，旨在改善 Orion 的結構成本和整體競爭力。我稍後會詳細討論這個問題。

One key goal of these efforts is to ensure the company is generating positive free cash flow, should the headwinds persist. I'll then hand the call to Jeff, who will review the third quarter financial results in more detail and discuss our free cash flow, [revised] guidance, and some other items. Then I'll have some concluding remarks before opening up the call to Q&A.

這些努力的關鍵目標是確保公司在不利因素持續存在的情況下能夠產生正的自由現金流。然後我會把電話交給傑夫，他將更詳細地回顧第三季度的財務業績，並討論我們的自由現金流、[修訂後的]業績指引以及其他一些事項。接下來，我將作一些總結性發言，然後開放問答環節。

On slide 3, we broadly touch on the factors contributing to our Q3 performance. Adjusted EBITDA of about $58 million was slightly better than what we had conveyed in our mid-October preannouncement, but still well below expectations.

在第 3 張投影片中，我們大致談到了影響我們第三季業績的因素。調整後的 EBITDA 約為 5800 萬美元，略好於我們在 10 月中旬的預告中所說的，但仍遠低於預期。

The largest factors were reduced Rubber segment demand in key Western regions, soft premium Specialty markets, and fixed cost absorption variances across both segments, resulting from inventory control efforts. Because of lower oil prices, we also absorbed another inventory revaluation in the third quarter.

最大的影響因素是西部主要地區橡膠業務需求下降、高端特種市場疲軟，以及由於庫存控制措施導致兩個業務部門固定成本吸收差異。由於油價下跌，我們在第三季還承受了另一次庫存重估。

Notably, our operating teams again delivered strong plant reliability throughout the third quarter. The sustained improvement in our operating performance is beneficial on a number of fronts, which I'll touch upon in a moment.

值得一提的是，我們的營運團隊在整個第三季再次實現了工廠的可靠運作。我們營運績效的持續改善在許多方面都是有益的，我稍後會談到這一點。

In our Rubber segment, our customers have been feeling pressure from elevated levels of imports. Tire imports, coupled with surplus channel inventories, have affected their production rates, and thus our carbon black demand.

在我們的橡膠業務領域，客戶一直感受到進口量增加帶來的壓力。輪胎進口加上渠道庫存過剩，影響了它們的生產率，從而影響了我們對炭黑的需求。

Meanwhile, overall industrial activity softness has weighed on our Specialty business, and particularly end markets that usually consume our highest margin grades. In terms of the specific impact of this on Orion, remember, we are -- historically, we've been over-indexed to both Western markets as well as to premium tire makers.

同時，整體工業活動的疲軟對我們的特種產品業務造成了影響，尤其是那些通常會消耗我們利潤率最高等級產品的終端市場。就此事對 Orion 的具體影響而言，請記住，從歷史上看，我們一直過度依賴西方市場和高端輪胎製造商。

While beneficial in prior cycles, this has not been ideal during 2025, but there are signs of change. Tier 1 players are adjusting their strategies to adjust -- to defend share, including more innovation at the higher end, plant modernization efforts, and more vigorously promoting their second-tier brands.

雖然在先前的周期中是有益的，但在 2025 年卻並不理想，但有跡象表明情況正在改變。第一線企業正在調整策略以捍衛市場份額，包括在高端市場加強創新、推動工廠現代化改造，以及更積極地推廣二線品牌。

The most recent 232 proclamation is another positive. Bigger picture. Western markets have been structurally dependent on tire imports for many years, if not decades, but at like half the tire sell-through at most, not the 70%-plus from which imports have recently been seen.

最新發布的第 232 號公告也是一個積極的信號。從更宏觀的角度來看。西方市場在結構上依賴輪胎進口已經很多年了，甚至幾十年了，但輪胎的銷售量最多也佔到一半，而不是像最近那樣超過 70%。

As the channel rebalances towards historically more normalized level of imports, we will be very well positioned to benefit from a reversion in demand for our carbon black. In our Specialty segment, we have disproportionately deployed resources to drive customer qualifications with some of our newest and most differentiated conductive carbon products, and these efforts are bearing fruit.

隨著通路重新平衡，進口量恢復到歷史上較為正常的水平，我們將處於非常有利的地位，能夠從對我們炭黑的需求回升中受益。在我們的特種產品領域，我們投入了大量資源，以推動客戶對我們一些最新、最具差異化的導電碳產品進行認證，這些努力正在取得成果。

On this slide, we highlight a couple of qualifications now in place, with leading supply chain players in both the high-voltage wire and cable market and the battery energy storage space. Both applications are placed on the strong data center demand growth for power.

在這張投影片中，我們重點介紹了目前已具備的幾項資格，包括高壓電線電纜市場和電池儲能領域的領先供應鏈參與者。這兩個應用都基於數據中心對電力需求的強勁成長。

This conductive portfolio, including our high-purity acetylene blacks, is our fastest-growing group of products, and their potential relevance in applications beyond traditional EV batteries is particularly encouraging.

這個導電產品組合，包括我們的高純度乙炔黑，是我們成長最快的產品系列，它們在傳統電動車電池以外的應用中的潛在相關性尤其令人鼓舞。

On slide 4, we share some updated data related to the key tire end market. We surmised the monthly import data for July was not unnoticed, given the volatility, there's one data point spurred. Unfortunately, this is still the most recent US import data available because of the government shutdown.

在第 4 張投影片中，我們分享了一些與主要輪胎終端市場相關的最新數據。我們推測，7 月的月度進口數據並非無人關注，考慮到市場波動，其中一個數據點引起了人們的注意。遺憾的是，由於政府停擺，這仍然是目前可獲得的最新美國進口數據。

Parsing this by category, one sees the largest contributor to the July increase was substantially higher truck and bus tire imports, which surged over 50% year over year in the month of July. We point this out because this import surge could reflect an effort by certain exporting countries to beat impending tariffs.

按類別分析，7 月成長的最大貢獻因素是卡車和巴士輪胎進口量大幅增加，7 月年增超過 50%。我們指出這一點是因為這項進口激增可能反映出某些出口國試圖規避即將生效的關稅。

Thailand, for example, is the largest exporter of truck and bus tires to the US. That country's export data shows tire exports to the US declining in August, the month when the country tariffs went into place for Thailand.

例如，泰國是美國最大的卡車和巴士輪胎出口國。該國的出口數據顯示，8 月泰國對美國的輪胎出口下降，而當月美國開始對泰國徵收關稅。

Meanwhile, the US just invoked a new 25% Section 232 tariff on diesel truck parts that will unequivocally include truck and bus tires as of November. As Section 232 proclamations are uncontested, they should prove durable, and they supersede any country-specific reciprocal tariffs.

與此同時，美國剛剛對柴油卡車零件徵收了新的 25% 的第 232 條款關稅，該關稅將從 11 月起明確包括卡車和巴士輪胎。由於第 232 條公告沒有受到質疑，因此應該能夠持久有效，並且它們可以取代任何針對特定國家的互惠關稅。

In Europe, the tire industry continues to believe the EU's investigation into exports by China into that region will result in an initial finding of dumping in December with some retroactive implications. Preliminary US, Canada, and Mexico negotiations have begun around the USMCA trade agreement, which is poised for a reset effective July 1, 2026.

在歐洲，輪胎產業仍然相信歐盟對中國向該地區出口輪胎的調查將在 12 月得出初步的傾銷結論，並可能產生一些追溯性影響。美國、加拿大和墨西哥已開始就美墨加貿易協定進行初步談判，該協定將於 2026 年 7 月 1 日進行調整。

As a reminder, Canada and Mexico are both net exporters of tires and carbon black to the US, and Orion does not have any production in either of these two countries. Finally, we continue to believe the millions of dollars of capital commitments from major tire companies, focused on adding net unit capacity, and modernizing existing production facilities, bodes well for North American fundamentals over the next few years.

需要提醒的是，加拿大和墨西哥都是美國輪胎和炭黑的淨出口國，而Orion在這兩個國家都沒有任何生產基地。最後，我們仍然相信，主要輪胎公司投入數百萬美元的資金，用於增加淨產能和改造現有生產設施，這對未來幾年北美輪胎行業的基本面來說是一個好兆頭。

The implied production capacity growth of 3% through 2030 would be helpful, but their reshoring intentions are more telling. And obviously, the normalization in tire local production rates would be a more substantial driver of an earnings recovery for Orion.

到 2030 年隱含的 3% 產能成長固然有益，但他們的回流意圖更能說明問題。顯然，輪胎本地生產率的正常化將是 Orion 獲利復甦的更實質驅動因素。

On slide 5, we highlight actions that we have taken or are taking to navigate the current environment, three points here. First, while we believe tire manufacturing will rebound, we are not assuming any recovery in our key end markets.

在第 5 張投影片中，我們重點介紹了我們為應對當前環境而採取或正在採取的行動，這裡有三點。首先，雖然我們相信輪胎製造業將會復甦，但我們並不認為我們的主要終端市場會有任何復甦。

Second, to enhance our competitiveness, we're implementing actions to further improve Orion's overall cost structure. Last quarter, we announced three to five underperforming production lines were being rationalized. Those actions will take place by the end of the year. We are looking more creatively at further optimization moves within our production network.

其次，為了增強我們的競爭力，我們正在採取措施進一步改善 Orion 的整體成本結構。上個季度，我們宣布將對三到五條業績不佳的生產線進行合理化調整。這些行動將在年底前完成。我們正在以更具創意的方式，尋求生產網路內部的進一步優化措施。

Third, we've also reexamined our non-plant headcount, work processes, engagement with outside contractors, consultants, the company's aggregate discretionary spend, amongst other things, and are in the process of further rationalizing costs across the board.

第三，我們也重新審視了非工廠員工人數、工作流程、與外部承包商、顧問的合作、公司的總可自由支配支出等，目前正在全面進一步合理化成本。

Savings from this competitiveness effort will start to build in the current quarter and achieve a run rate savings in mid-2026. We'll share more on the expected benefit when providing next year's guidance in February.

這項提升競爭力的舉措所帶來的節約將從本季開始積累，並在 2026 年年中實現持續節約。我們將在二月發布明年業績指引時，詳細介紹預期收益。

In parallel to this competitiveness issue, we're also taking actions that benefit cash flow now. A highlight for sure is the sustained improvement in our overall plant operating performance. This helps on a number of fronts.

在解決競爭力問題的同時，我們也採取有利於當前現金流的措施。最值得一提的是，我們工廠的整體營運績效得到了持續提升。這在很多方面都有幫助。

In addition to improved on-time customer service levels, better quality, and reduced scrap, we're also able to comfortably run our business with lower inventory levels, which in turn unlocks working capital. You can see the progress here in the past two quarters, and we expect a strong seasonal Q4 release, including, but not limited to, receivables, which should enable working capital to be a source of cash by approximately $50 million in 2025.

除了提高準時客戶服務水準、改善產品品質和減少廢料外，我們還能以較低的庫存水準輕鬆經營業務，從而釋放營運資金。從過去兩季的進展可以看出，我們預計第四季將迎來強勁的季節性成長，包括但不限於應收帳款，這將使營運資金在 2025 年成為約 5,000 萬美元的現金來源。

The improved operating performance at our plant reflects our organization's focused efforts on this front, but it's also a function of our having worked down a backlog of previously deferred maintenance projects. With the improved operating performance and with three to five fewer lines competing for maintenance capital, we'll be able to further prioritize our maintenance spending and focus that spend on projects that ensure reliability at our most important production sites.

我們工廠營運績效的提升反映了我們組織在這方面的集中努力，但也得益於我們解決了先前積壓的維護項目。由於營運績效得到改善，且有三到五條生產線減少了對維護資金的需求，我們將能夠進一步優先考慮維護支出，並將這些支出集中用於確保我們最重要的生產基地可靠性的項目。

This all feeds into our conviction around free cash flow generation despite the decline in EBITDA. Jeff will touch upon cash flow in more detail after his Q3 review. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

儘管 EBITDA 下降，但這仍然增強了我們對自由現金流產生的信心。Jeff 將在第三季業績回顧後更詳細地談談現金流問題。接下來，我會把電話交給傑夫。

Thank you, Corning. On slide 6, we show the overall company performance, both year over year and sequentially in the table, and compared with last year in the EBITDA bridge. Revenue was down 3% compared with last year despite 5% higher volumes. This was mostly a function of the contractual pass-through of lower oil prices, which have declined progressively throughout the year.

謝謝你，康寧公司。在第 6 張投影片中，我們展示了公司的整體業績，包括同比和環比業績（以表格形式呈現），並在 EBITDA 橋接表中與去年進行了比較。儘管銷量成長了 5%，但營收卻比去年下降了 3%。這主要是由於合約中規定的油價下跌傳導所致，而油價今年一直在逐步下降。

Gross profit was 20% lower compared with last year despite the higher volumes. The most meaningful volume gains occurred in our lowest margin markets, while volumes declined in our more profitable Western regions.

儘管銷量有所成長，毛利仍比去年下降了20%。銷量成長最顯著的地區是利潤率最低的市場，而利潤率較高的西部地區的銷量卻有所下降。

As a result of this dynamic, the lower demand in key regions and associated adverse fixed cost absorption were the biggest drivers of the profitability decline. The fixed cost absorption had an effect of improving our working capital and increasing our free cash flow by reducing inventories. Also, an inventory revaluation tied to lower oil prices impacted gross profit as did adverse pricing. Finally, we had some favorable one-offs last year that did not repeat.

由於這種動態，重點地區需求下降以及相關的固定成本吸收不利，成為獲利能力下降的最大驅動因素。固定成本的吸收透過減少庫存，改善了我們的營運資本，增加了我們的自由現金流。此外，與油價下跌相關的存貨重估以及不利的定價策略也對毛利產生了影響。最後，去年我們遇到了一些有利的個別事件，但這些事件並沒有再發生。

On slide 7, the Rubber business KPIs were directionally consistent with the overall company performance. Volumes were up 7%, but revenue was lower due to the oil-related pass-throughs. Gross profit declined compared with last year, primarily a function of the adverse geographic mix, reduced fixed cost absorption in key Western regions, pricing and customer mix, as well as the aforementioned inventory revaluation.

在第 7 張投影片中，橡膠業務的關鍵績效指標與公司整體績效方向一致。銷量成長了 7%，但由於石油相關的轉嫁成本，收入有所下降。與去年相比，毛利有所下降，主要原因是地域組合不利、西部主要地區固定成本吸收減少、定價和客戶組合，以及前面提到的庫存重估。

Higher volumes in the Asia Pacific and South American regions were related to our improved operational performance and annual contract outcomes, respectively, but these gains contributed minimally to EBITDA because our high-margin regions experienced lower volumes. Compared with last year, costs increased due to inventory-related cost absorption, oil price-driven inventory revaluation, and other timing effects.

亞太地區和南美地區的銷售成長分別與我們營運績效的提高和年度合約結果的改善有關，但這些成長對 EBITDA 的貢獻微乎其微，因為我們高利潤地區的銷售量較低。與去年相比，由於庫存相關成本吸收、油價驅動的庫存重估以及其他時間因素，成本增加。

Slide 8. In Specialty, we had year over year and sequential volume gains, but the improvement was skewed towards lower-margin applications and products. In the coatings market, for example, a premium segment, demand was impacted by soft OEM vehicle builds and particularly with dispersion houses that can serve as swing capacity for the major coating companies when demand is stronger.

第8張幻燈片。在特種產品方面，我們實現了同比和環比銷量成長，但這種成長主要集中在利潤率較低的應用和產品上。例如，在塗料市場這個高端細分市場，需求受到 OEM 汽車產量疲軟的影響，尤其是分散劑生產商，當需求強勁時，這些生產商可以作為大型塗料公司的備用產能。

More generally, we believe hesitant customer demand behavior, including continued just-in-time order patterns, reflect overall uncertainty. The biggest cost factor in Specialties EBITDA bridge was the adverse fixed cost absorption, largely a function of our inventory control efforts.

更普遍地說，我們認為猶豫不決的客戶需求行為，包括持續的即時訂購模式，反映了整體的不確定性。特種產品 EBITDA 橋接中最大的成本因素是固定成本吸收不利，這主要是由於我們的庫存控制工作所致。

On slide 9, we touch on a few other noteworthy items in the quarter. We recorded an $81 million noncash goodwill impairment charge. Our book value, which includes goodwill, is compared to the implied value of those assets when considering our enterprise value.

在第 9 張投影片中，我們將談到本季的其他一些值得注意的項目。我們提列了 8,100 萬美元的非現金商譽減損費用。在考慮企業價值時，我們會將包含商譽在內的帳面價值與這些資產的隱含價值進行比較。

On a positive note, we recovered $7.3 million of the 2024 fraud-related losses through legal actions and around $11 million to date. We continue to aggressively pursue recovery through a variety of legal means and insurance coverages.

值得欣慰的是，我們透過法律訴訟追回了 2024 年詐欺相關損失中的 730 萬美元，迄今已追回約 1,100 萬美元。我們將繼續積極透過各種法律手段和保險途徑追回損失。

Finally, we completed an amendment to our credit agreement during the quarter, which increased our RCF capacity back to its prior level, expanded our bank group, and gives us more overall flexibility in navigating the current business environment.

最後，我們在本季度完成了對信貸協議的修訂，使我們的循環信貸能力恢復到先前的水平，擴大了我們的銀行集團，並使我們更靈活地應對當前的商業環境。

On slide 10, we depict our latest 2025 guidance including, the EBITDA range conveyed in mid-October and the corresponding adjusted EPS expectations. Reflecting our current EBITDA guidance, along with better visibility on our progress with our working capital efforts, we expect positive full year free cash flow in the $25 million to $40 million range.

在第 10 張投影片中，我們展示了最新的 2025 年業績指引，包括 10 月中旬公佈的 EBITDA 範圍和相應的調整後每股收益預期。考慮到我們目前的 EBITDA 預期，以及我們在營運資金方面的進展情況更加明朗，我們預計全年自由現金流將為正值，在 2500 萬美元至 4000 萬美元之間。

Slide 11 shows our historic capital spending, including spending expectations for 2025. Notably, we do not have a figure for 2026 on this slide as we anticipate updating investors on this spend when providing a broader outlook in February. One fluid aspect is our ability to flex maintenance capital given our improving plant reliability.

第 11 張投影片顯示了我們的歷史資本支出，包括 2025 年的支出預期。值得注意的是，本投影片中沒有 2026 年的數據，因為我們預計將在 2 月提供更廣泛的展望時向投資者更新這筆支出情況。一個靈活的因素是我們能夠根據工廠可靠性的提高來靈活調整維護資金。

On slide 12, you can see that we have achieved positive year-to-date free cash flow and expect further working capital improvements in Q4. As mentioned earlier, we expect full year free cash flow of $25 million to $40 million. With that, I will hand the call back to Corning.

從第 12 張投影片可以看出，我們今年迄今實現了正的自由現金流，並預計第四季營運資本將進一步改善。如前所述，我們預計全年自由現金流為 2,500 萬美元至 4,000 萬美元。這樣，我就把電話轉回康寧公司了。

Thanks, Jeff. I just want to close by reiterating a few key takeaways. While the case can be made that our business is at or close to trough conditions, or that a demand inflection should materialize, we are not depending on such a scenario. We are taking action. We have reduced working capital and expect a further progress in Q4 and into '26.

謝謝你，傑夫。最後，我想重申幾個關鍵要點。雖然可以說我們的業務正處於或接近低谷，或者需求轉折點即將出現，但我們並不依賴這種情況。我們正在採取行動。我們減少了營運資金，預計在第四季和 2026 年將取得進一步進展。

We're taking additional cost out and working to further optimize our assets. Our objective is to increase Orion's overall competitiveness and agility. This will serve us in combating the current headwinds, and when demand conditions normalize, we'll be positioned to achieve even greater operating leverage.

我們正在削減額外成本，並努力進一步優化我們的資產。我們的目標是提高Orion的整體競爭力和靈活性。這將有助於我們應對當前的不利因素，當需求狀況恢復正常時，我們將能夠實現更大的營運槓桿。

We'll share more detail -- a more detailed review on these initiatives in February. Underpinning all of these activities is our resolute focus on generating free cash flow. That is our highest priority.

我們將在二月分享更多細節——對這些舉措進行更詳細的評估。所有這些活動的根本在於我們堅定不移地專注於創造自由現金流。這是我們的首要任務。

And with that, Carrie, let's open up the line for our Q&A discussion.

那麼，凱莉，讓我們開始問答環節吧。

(Operator Instructions) Josh Spector, UBS.

（操作說明）Josh Spector，瑞銀集團。

It's Chris Perrella on for Josh. Corning and Jeff, when I think about your volumes for 4Q and into 2026, what are your expectations there? And then a follow-up on how far along are you in the contract negotiations for next year? And what is that -- so far, what does that imply for pricing and spreads in '26?

克里斯·佩雷拉代替喬許上場。康寧和傑夫，當我考慮你們第四季以及到 2026 年的銷售量時，你們對此有何預期？那麼，關於明年合約談判的進展情況，請問目前進展如何？那麼，到目前為止，這對 2026 年的定價和價差意味著什麼？

So our expectations for Q4, like the decline, if I'm comparing it to prior years, that's pretty much all volume largely in that area. So we're expecting people to take longer seasonal shutdowns, that kind of thing, and be managing down their own inventory in Q4. That's the signal we have there.

所以，我們對第四季的預期，例如下滑，如果我把它和往年相比，基本上都是這個地區的銷售下降。因此，我們預計人們會延長季節性停工時間，諸如此類，並在第四季度減少自己的庫存。這就是我們收到的訊號。

I think for next year's volumes, in terms of manufacturing, as I indicated, there's a case to be made that inflection is upon us, but we're not counting on that. And I would say, in terms of negotiations, there, as we said and predicted last quarter, we didn't see settling quickly in our interest.

我認為就明年的產量而言，就生產而言，正如我所指出的，有理由認為轉折點即將到來，但我們並不指望這一點。就談判而言，正如我們上個季度所說和預測的那樣，我們認為短期內達成協議不符合我們的利益。

They continue to drag on. And I would say all in all, the negotiations are behind schedule compared to a more typical year. So I think in terms of exactly what's going to be out there for next year in terms of volume, we're really going to have to wait until we conclude the negotiations.

事情還在繼續拖延。總的來說，與往年相比，談判進度有所落後。所以，就明年具體的銷售而言，我認為我們真的需要等到談判結束後才能知道。

I appreciate that. And can you just -- what's the impact of La Porte on volumes and earnings in 2026?

我很感激。請問—拉波特港對 2026 年的銷售量和收益有何影響？

I mean, volume-wise, it's not a high-volume plant to begin with. And I think overall, with the start-up costs and all that, I would expect it to be negative in 2026.

我的意思是，就產量而言，它本來就不是一座高產量的工廠。而且我認為，考慮到啟動成本等等，總體而言，我預計到 2026 年將會出現負成長。

John Tanwanteng, CJS Securities.

約翰·譚萬騰，CJS 證券。

My first one, just assuming that import tire pressure is sustained through '26 at '25 levels, what is the potential for earnings improvement into '26 in RCB just between -- with all the movements you're making in costs, your customers moving to more value positioning? Just help us understand what's possible, the volumes are flat. And if you have any commentary on pricing spreads, that would be helpful.

我的第一個問題是，假設進口輪胎的壓力在 2026 年保持在 2025 年的水平，那麼在你們採取所有成本控制措施、客戶轉向更注重價值定位的情況下，RCB 在 2026 年的盈利增長潛力有多大？請幫助我們了解哪些是可能的，銷售量是平的。如果您對價格價差有任何見解，那就太好了。

Yes. So I think the big question in 2024 is -- or I'm sorry, 2026, is going to be the outcome of the negotiations, both the volume a particular company wins and the margins that come with that. I think that's sort of like the big unknown. We will be working hard on some of the efficiency projects that I mentioned. But I think a big impact for next year is going to be the outcome of the negotiations.

是的。所以我認為 2024 年（或抱歉，是 2026 年）最大的問題將是談判的結果，包括某家公司贏得的銷售以及隨之而來的利潤率。我覺得這就像是最大的未知數。我們將努力推進我提到的一些提高效率的專案。但我認為，明年將產生重大影響的將是談判的結果。

And it's obviously commercially sensitive, and we are like in the middle of it right now.

這顯然涉及商業機密，而我們現在正處於其中。

Okay. Great. And then do you have any expectations for Specialties next year, whether it's market improvements, mix improvements? Just help us understand what your thoughts are on the Specialty side.

好的。偉大的。那麼，您對明年的特種產品市場有何預期呢？例如市場改善、產品組合改善等面向？請您幫助我們了解您對專科方面的想法。

All right. Well, we'll do our -- look, we'll give our official guidance for next year in February. I think what will be guiding our views on that are, of course, what we hear directly from customers. I think you can get a sense of that by looking at how general manufacturing is going, where PMI goes. I would also say, OEM builds, right, that's an important market for that space.

好的。嗯，我們會——嗯，我們會在二月給出明年的官方指導。我認為，指導我們對此看法的主要因素，當然是我們直接從客戶那裡聽到的回饋。我認為，透過觀察整體製造業的發展趨勢以及採購經理人指數（PMI）的走勢，就能感受到這一點。我還要補充一點，OEM 組裝，對吧，那是該領域的重要市場。

So those will be -- I think things you could look at that would give you a sense of how we see that business developing.

所以，我認為你可以看看這些內容，它們能讓你了解我們對該業務發展的看法。

(Operator Instructions) Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

（操作說明）勞倫斯‧亞歷山大，傑富瑞。

This is Kevin Estok on for Laurence. Just curious if you could give your thoughts around maybe what an industrial rebound would look like, I guess, let's say, in 2026 or 2027? And I guess just curious what you think it takes to get us there?

這裡是凱文·埃斯托克替勞倫斯報道。我只是好奇您能否談談您對工業復甦的看法，比如說​​，在2026年或2027年，工業復甦會是什麼樣子？我只是好奇，你認為我們需要做些什麼才能實現這個目標？

Sure. I mean -- I think industrial recovery would say taking us back to things that looked more like pre-COVID. And I would think in that kind of environment, we'd find that we're essentially nearly sold out in our key markets at that point, with strong demand coming from OEMs, strong demand from tire manufacturing, more normalized trade flows. I think the really positive thing here is that tire sell-through remains really solid. Tire sell-through is at the conditions I just mentioned, right?

當然。我的意思是──我認為工業復甦應該是指讓我們回到疫情前的狀態。我認為在這種環境下，我們會發現，到那時我們在主要市場基本上已經售罄，因為來自原始設備製造商的強勁需求、來自輪胎製造業的強勁需求以及更正常的貿易流動。我認為真正積極的一點是，輪胎銷售依然非常穩健。輪胎銷售狀況是指我剛才提到的那些條件，對吧？

So it's not like that is the fundamental challenge here. Yes, shipping, trucking activity is off a little bit, but passenger car is really quite strong. The big question is the success of our customers in the west around their own market share. And of course, they're being helped by trade policy right now. I think that's a big one.

所以這並不是這裡存在的根本挑戰。是的，貨運和卡車運輸活動略有下降，但乘用車市場確實非常強勁。最大的問題是，我們的客戶在西方市場能否成功，並佔據自己的市場份額。當然，他們目前也正受益於貿易政策。我認為這很重要。

I would say in the Specialty area, a pickup in construction, a pickup in automotive, those are things that would be very helpful and constructive in that area. Basically, the industrial economy getting back to a more normalized level.

我認為在專業領域，例如建築業皮卡、汽車業皮卡，這些都是在該領域非常有幫助和建設性的工具。基本上，工業經濟正在恢復到更正常的水平。

John Roberts, Mizuho Securities.

約翰·羅伯茨，瑞穗證券。

John Roberts for John Roberts again. Do you think the tire importers into the west are receiving government support or maybe lower raw materials, I don't know, Russian rubber or Russian oil for carbon black that allows them to continue to import into the US in spite of the tariffs?

約翰·羅伯茨再次為約翰·羅伯茨服務。你認為西方國家的輪胎進口商是否得到了政府支持，還是原料價格更低？我不知道，例如俄羅斯橡膠或俄羅斯用於生產炭黑的石油，這些因素使他們能夠在關稅高企的情況下繼續向美國進口輪胎？

Well, I think if you look at it, the [two-three-two] tariffs, let's say, of 25%, to be clear, that's not going to be enough to totally price out imported tires. The US and Europe cannot possibly make all the tires they need, right? Before all this happened, it was about 50% of the tires were imported to the US, very similar into Europe. So we're never talking about, it has to get to a point where they are pushed out.

嗯，我認為如果你仔細分析一下，假設徵收 25% 的關稅，這顯然不足以完全壓垮進口輪胎。美國和歐洲不可能生產出他們所需的所有輪胎，對吧？在這一切發生之前，美國大約有 50% 的輪胎是進口的，歐洲的情況大致相同。所以我們從來不談論這個問題，必須等到他們被排擠出去才行。

What I think it has to get to the point where customers are more returning to their normalized brands. So one magazine recently published that just in October of this year, Tier 2 tires had the greatest demand. That's more like normal conditions. The last -- or so far this year, it had been Tier 3 tires that had the highest demand of the four tiers that they track.

我認為最終的目標是讓顧客更多地回歸到他們熟悉的品牌。最近有雜誌刊登文章稱，光是今年 10 月份，二級輪胎的需求量就最大。這更像是正常情況。今年迄今為止，在他們追蹤的四個級別輪胎中，Tier 3 輪胎的需求量最高。

So there's a little bit there of customer sentiment moving back to a different value proposition in the tires they buy.

所以，消費者的情緒正逐漸回歸到他們所購買輪胎的不同價值主張。

And then number two, like the help in the tariffs is enough to like close the gap. So the gap between the Tier 2 and the Tier 3 and most Tier 1 companies have a Tier 2 brand. But that closes up to where people choose that value proposition. It's -- again, it's like there's no effort here. There's no dream of pricing them all out, that's impossible.

第二點，關稅方面的幫助足以縮小差距。因此，二級和三級公司之間存在差距，而且大多數一級公司都有二級品牌。但這也意味著人們會選擇這種價值主張。這——再說一遍，感覺這裡根本沒有付出任何努力。不可能把它們全部標價出來，那是不可能的。

But it's a matter of just can you close the gap enough, the consumers will shift back. And I think that's a concrete sign that, yes, this is all possible. This is all doable. And I think things tend to revert to their norm and perhaps this is the beginning of it, but we're not going to count on that.

但關鍵在於你能否縮小差距，否則消費者就會重新轉向。我認為這是一個非常確鑿的跡象，表明這一切是完全有可能的。這一切都可行。我認為事情往往會回歸正常狀態，也許這只是個開始，但我們不會期待這種情況會一直持續下去。

John, I think you also -- depending on the results of the antidumping situation in Europe, you may also see an impact from that. And that might give you some insight into either the profitability that they're dealing with in the short term or even their willingness to operate at a very low or negative return.

約翰，我認為你也是一樣──這取決於歐洲反傾銷的結果，你可能也會受到影響。這或許能讓你深入了解他們在短期內面臨的獲利狀況，甚至是他們是否願意接受非常低的回報或負回報。

Is it fair to say, it sounds like the recovery is more dependent on the lower-end consumer improving than it is on the tariffs? I mean the tariffs help, but it sounds like we need higher tire prices.

可以這樣說嗎，經濟復甦似乎更取決於低端消費者的消費能力改善，而不是關稅？我的意思是，關稅確實有所幫助，但聽起來我們需要更高的輪胎價格。

Well, I think it's two things. The point I would like to make, it's not just relying on government action, right? There's an element for industry, and there's some certainly plus in the trade policy to overcome some of the, perhaps unfair disadvantages that are there that you mentioned earlier.

嗯，我認為這是兩件事。我想表達的觀點是，這不僅僅是依靠政府行動，對吧？貿易政策中確實包含一些有利於產業發展的因素，也確實有一些利多因素可以克服你先前提到的一些可能不公平的劣勢。

I think the two of those together are important. But I would like to stress, I think industry and our customers, there's a role there for self-help. They can continue to innovate on their top brands, make them more attractive, continue to approach their -- to promote their second-tier brands, perhaps shift some production from one to the other.

我認為這兩者結合起來很重要。但我想強調的是，我認為業界和我們的客戶都可以在自助方面發揮作用。他們可以繼續對其頂級品牌進行創新，使其更具吸引力，並繼續接觸他們的——以推廣他們的二線品牌，或許可以將一些生產從一個品牌轉移到另一個品牌。

These are all things within their control and that you see some signs of them taking action in that direction, some more than others.

這些事情都在他們的掌控之中，而且你可以看到他們正在朝著這個方向採取行動，只是有些行動比其他行動更積極。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

It's Chris again on for Josh. From -- as I think about next year, what are some of the recurring costs in 2025 that won't be there in 2026?

克里斯再次代替喬許上場。展望明年，2025 年有哪些經常性成本在 2026 年就不會存在了？

Well, so I think one thing that's been with us all year long, I'll let Jeff go into this, Chris. But I think one thing that's been with us all year long has been the inventory adjustments. And that's really a factor of the trend of oil pricing, and we pass that through, but there's always an element of that.

嗯，我想說的是，有一件事我們這一年來一直都在關注，克里斯，我讓傑夫來談談這件事吧。但我認為貫穿我們全年的一個問題是庫存調整。這實際上是石油價格趨勢的一個因素，我們會將其傳遞出去，但這總是存在一個因素。

Should we just assume stable oil prices, then that would go flat for us. I mean if they went up, it would revert and go the other way. But I mean that's certainly been a drag this year.

如果我們假設油價保持穩定，那麼對我們來說，情況就會停滯不前。我的意思是，如果它們上漲了，價格就會回落，朝相反的方向發展。但我的意思是，今年這確實很令人沮喪。

Yes. If you think about it to date, we've taken our inventories down by $34 million. So that's a pretty significant reduction in the inventory, and associated with it is the cost absorption related to pulling that inventory off the balance sheet and running it through the P&L. I think that's the biggest thing. Going the other way, obviously, we've taken some cost out this year.

是的。如果回顧過去，我們已經減少了價值 3400 萬美元的庫存。因此，庫存大幅減少，隨之而來的是將庫存從資產負債表上移除併計入損益表所產生的成本吸收。我認為這是最重要的一點。另一方面，顯然我們今年已經削減了一些成本。

Many of them are permanent, but there's a variable comp component that's not permanent, so that would have to add back in. But as Corning mentioned earlier, we have some pretty aggressive cost actions that we are going at currently and going into early 2026, that will help us reduce our costs next year and become more competitive.

其中許多是永久性的，但有一個可變的合成組件不是永久性的，所以必須將其添加回去。但正如康寧先前所提到的，我們目前正在採取一些非常積極的成本控制措施，並將持續到 2026 年初，這將有助於我們明年降低成本，提高競爭力。

This now concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Corning Painter for closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把發言權交還給康寧油漆公司，請他們做總結發言。

Well, I'd like to thank you all for your time and attention today, and to thank everyone for their questions. They were insightful and useful, and I think, added value for all our investors. So thank you very much for that, and we look forward to be speaking with investors during the balance of this quarter. Thank you all. Have a good rest of your day.

好的，我要感謝大家今天抽出時間認真聆聽，也感謝大家提出的問題。它們很有見地，也很有幫助，我認為，它們為我們所有的投資者增添了價值。非常感謝，我們期待在本季剩餘時間與投資者們進行交流。謝謝大家。祝您今天餘下的時間過得愉快。

And ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開線路了，祝您有美好的一天。