Orion SA (OEC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to Orion SA full year 2023 financial results conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Wendy Wilson, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mrs. Wilson. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加 Orion SA 2023 年全年財務業績電話會議。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係主管溫迪威爾遜。謝謝你，威爾遜夫人。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Renju. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Orion's conference call to discuss our 2023 financial results. I'm Wendy Wilson, Head of Investor Relations. With me today are Corning Painter, Chief Executive Officer; and Jeff Glajch, Chief Financial Officer. We issued our press release after the market closed yesterday, and we also posted a slide presentation to the Investor Relations portion of our website. We will be referencing this presentation during the call.

謝謝你，連珠。大家早安，歡迎參加 Orion 的電話會議，討論我們 2023 年的財務表現。我是投資人關係主管溫蒂威爾森。今天與我在一起的有執行長 Corning Painter；和財務長 Jeff Glajch。我們在昨天收盤後發布了新聞稿，並在我們網站的投資者關係部分發布了幻燈片演示。我們將在電話會議期間參考此簡報。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that some of the comments made on today's call are forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to the risks and uncertainties as described in the company's filings with the SEC, and our actual results may differ from those described during the call. In addition, all forward-looking statements are made as of today, February 15, 2024.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天電話會議中發表的一些評論屬於前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到公司向 SEC 提交的文件中所述的風險和不確定性的影響，我們的實際結果可能與電話會議中描述的結果有所不同。此外，所有前瞻性陳述均截至今天，即 2024 年 2 月 15 日。

The company is not obligated to update any forward-looking statements based on new circumstances or revised expectations. All non-GAAP financial measures discussed during this call are reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the table attached to our press release.

該公司沒有義務根據新情況或修改後的預期更新任何前瞻性陳述。本次電話會議中討論的所有非公認會計原則財務指標均與我們新聞稿所附表格中最直接可比較的公認會計原則指標進行了調整。

I'll now turn the call over to Corning Painter.

我現在將把電話轉給康寧畫家。

Thank you, Wendy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. In 2023, we delivered another year of record adjusted EBITDA, our third year of growth. As good as that is we are not satisfied. If demand had not pulled off over the year, our results could have been in line with or even beat our initial guidance. When Jeff takes you through the EBITDA waterfall on slide 9, you'll see just how impactful the 2023 contract round was and how the slowing underlying markets impacted us.

謝謝你，溫迪。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。2023 年，我們的調整後 EBITDA 又創歷史新高，這是我們成長的第三年。即便如此，我們仍不滿意。如果全年需求沒有減少，我們的業績可能會符合甚至超過我們最初的指導。當 Jeff 帶您瀏覽幻燈片 9 上的 EBITDA 瀑佈時，您將看到 2023 年合約輪的影響有多大，以及基礎市場放緩對我們有何影響。

The good news is, as we predicted, we achieved our goals for the 2024 rubber pricing cycle, despite relatively weak demand in our key markets. I believe this sets us up well for the 2025 cycle, which will be negotiated later this year. Our customers remain cautious about 2024 volume, and our guidance reflects that. I'll explain more about that later on the call.

好消息是，正如我們預測的那樣，儘管主要市場的需求相對疲軟，但我們還是實現了 2024 年橡膠定價週期的目標。我相信這為我們為 2025 年周期做好了準備，該週期將於今年稍後進行談判。我們的客戶對 2024 年的銷售量保持謹慎態度，我們的指導也反映了這一點。我將在稍後的電話會議中對此進行更多解釋。

Focusing on 2023 and consistent with our pre-release commentary from our January 22, press release, full year adjusted EBITDA was $332 million and adjusted diluted EPS came in at $1.92. We also delivered strong operating cash flow and strengthened our balance sheet. We returned $1.10 per share to shareholders by repurchasing stock. We also lowered our debt by $1.30 per share or $78 million. This reduce our net leverage to 2.35 times EBITDA, down from three times EBITDA just 18 months ago.

著眼於 2023 年，與我們 1 月 22 日新聞稿中的預發布評論一致，全年調整後 EBITDA 為 3.32 億美元，調整後攤薄每股收益為 1.92 美元。我們還提供了強勁的營運現金流並加強了我們的資產負債表。我們透過回購股票向股東返還每股 1.10 美元。我們還將每股債務降低了 1.30 美元，即 7,800 萬美元。這將我們的淨槓桿率降至 EBITDA 的 2.35 倍，低於 18 個月前 EBITDA 的三倍。

On the operations front, we completed our final air emission upgrade project in the US. Again, it is hard to express how big this is for Orion. A huge thanks to our engineering and operations teams. Well done.

在營運方面，我們在美國完成了最後的空氣排放升級項目。同樣，很難表達這對獵戶座來說有多大。非常感謝我們的工程和營運團隊。做得好。

This now allows us to focus our capital allocation to growth, debt reduction, and returning value to our shareholders. I see capital allocation as my top responsibility after safety. Beyond the implications for capital allocation, completing the air emissions work, means we can just shift more of our effort to reliability, and productivity, and quality.

現在，這使我們能夠將資本配置重點用於成長、減少債務和為股東回報價值。我認為資本配置是繼安全之後我的首要責任。除了對資本配置的影響之外，完成空氣排放工作也意味著我們可以將更多的精力轉向可靠性、生產力和品質。

As you'll see later in our presentation, we are also confirming our 2025 mid cycle earnings capacity goal. While we'll need something more like the pre-COVID market conditions to more fully load that capacity, we believe the path is clear and achievable. Jeff will review this later in the call.

正如您稍後將在我們的演示中看到的，我們還確認了 2025 年中期盈利能力目標。雖然我們需要更多類似新冠疫情前的市場條件來更充分地加載該容量，但我們相信道路是明確且可實現的。傑夫將在稍後的電話會議中回顧這一點。

There are so many more highlights to 2023, beyond those we featured in our slides today. For example, we completed a number of steps in our journey to advance our sustainability goals. We achieved our 2022 emissions target in the US and received a 10 basis points rate reduction in our interest payments on our sustainability-linked term loan.

除了我們今天幻燈片中介紹的內容之外，2023 年還有更多亮點。例如，我們在推動永續發展目標的過程中完成了許多步驟。我們在美國實現了 2022 年排放目標，與永續發展相關的定期貸款利息支付降低了 10 個基點。

If you recall, Orion agreed to the seven years, $650 million term loan in 2021. And we were one of the first companies to link the loan to environmental goal. If we meet our targets for all four years, we could reduce our financing costs by a total of $2.6 million. We introduced kappa 10, a new conductive carbon aimed at batteries with more of a cost based value proposition.

如果你還記得的話，Orion 同意在 2021 年提供為期七年、價值 6.5 億美元的定期貸款。我們是第一批將貸款與環境目標掛鉤的公司之一。如果我們實現全部四年的目標，我們總共可以減少 260 萬美元的融資成本。我們推出了 kappa 10，這是一種新型導電碳，針對更多基於成本的價值主張的電池。

We believe this product is well positioned for that portion of the market. We were also selected for a EUR6.4 million grant from the German government and a European Union to further develop and demonstrate a climate neutral process for producing carbon black from alternative carbon sources. We've already shown that we can make a wide range of carbon black range with bio circular raw materials. That's done. The challenge is now to improve efficiency, to make these more cost competitive. That's what this funding will help with. We believe there's strong demand for these materials as we make them more cost effective.

我們相信該產品非常適合該部分市場。我們也獲得了德國政府和歐盟 640 萬歐元的資助，以進一步開發和示範利用替代碳源生產炭黑的氣候中立過程。我們已經證明，我們可以使用生物循環原料來生產各種炭黑。這樣就完成了。現在的挑戰是提高效率，使這些更具成本競爭力。這就是這筆資金將提供的幫助。我們相信，隨著我們使這些材料更具成本效益，對這些材料的需求將會強勁。

Also in 2023, we secured international sustainability and carbon certification for our flagship specialty plant in Cologne. It's not just the tire customers who want to build a circular economy. And this will help us to support specialty customers with sustainable and traceable carbon black. It also means we now lead the industry with a number of certified carbon black production sites. All of these achievements advanced sustainability as a business model.

同樣在 2023 年，我們位於科隆的旗艦特種工廠獲得了國際永續發展和碳認證。想要建立循環經濟的不僅是輪胎客戶。這將幫助我們為專業客戶提供可持續且可追溯的炭黑。這也意味著我們現在擁有多個經過認證的炭黑生產基地，並處於業界領先地位。所有這些成就都將永續發展作為商業模式。

Looking at our two business units, specialty demand, reflecting weak broader market conditions continues to be subdued. We are using this as an opportunity to push new customer qualifications, upgrade our plants, and introduce new products like kappa 10 to the market. We have achieved a number of recent wins in the battery, wire and cable, and coatings markets.

看看我們的兩個業務部門，反映出整體市場狀況疲軟的特殊需求持續受到抑制。我們以此為契機，推動新客戶資格認證、升級我們的工廠，並向市場推出 kappa 10 等新產品。我們最近在電池、電線電纜和塗料市場取得了許多勝利。

We've also achieved several technical milestones related to the ongoing de-bottlenecking of our high performance surface treated grades. In addition to the financial benefits of this, these successes allow us to better support our customers' growth plans and allows them to build us into new formulations with confidence.

我們也實現了與持續消除高性能表面處理牌號的瓶頸相關的多個技術里程碑。除了由此帶來的經濟效益之外，這些成功還使我們能夠更好地支持客戶的成長計劃，並讓他們充滿信心地將我們打造為新配方。

In the rubber business, we successfully completed our negotiations for 2024 per plant. There we gained volumes in Europe should be no surprise at all with the coming ban on Russian carbon black. Importantly, we raised prices on top of last year's [deaf year], step change. We did this in the face of relatively weak demand outlook from our customers and at a time of some painful actions in the tire industry.

在橡膠業務方面，我們成功完成了各工廠2024年的談判。隨著即將對俄羅斯炭黑實施禁令，我們在歐洲的銷售成長應該不足為奇。重要的是，我們在去年[聾人年]的基礎上提高了價格，並逐步改變。我們這樣做是在客戶需求前景相對疲軟以及輪胎產業採取一些痛苦行動的情況下採取的。

We succeeded for several reasons. First, the industry has restructured. Tire capacity has grown in our key markets and carbon black capacity has not. In North America, de-bottlenecking has been offset by a plant closure, and the European Union is the investment in tire capacity -- beyond the investment in tire capacity, there's the Russian ban coming this June.

我們的成功有幾個原因。一是產業結構調整。我們的主要市場的輪胎產能有所成長，而炭黑產能卻沒有成長。在北美，工廠關閉已抵消了消除瓶頸的影響，歐盟也在對輪胎產能進行投資——除了對輪胎產能的投資之外，還有今年六月即將出台的俄羅斯禁令。

The changes that we're seeing in the long term training patterns are amplifying the importance of local production. There have been some recent announcements of capacity additions and other markets, but not in North America or in Europe or in other countries where we manufacture.

我們在長期培訓模式中看到的變化正在放大本地生產的重要性。最近有一些關於產能增加和其他市場的公告，但不是在北美、歐洲或我們生產的其他國家。

Second, we naturally need to earn a return on investment on our compliance investments, but also on our investments to renew our plants. By stepping up our maintenance and replacing end-of-life equipment, we improve our plant uptime and add effective capacity that our customers need for their continued growth. That investment warrants return as well.

其次，我們自然需要在合規投資以及更新工廠的投資上獲得投資回報。透過加強維護和更換報廢設備，我們提高了工廠的正常運作時間，並增加了客戶持續成長所需的有效產能。這項投資也值得回報。

Third, the industry wants sustainable offerings. The investments we make people, R&D, and supply chain to make this happen to demand a return. All that is only fair to Orion, the people who work in our plants, and to you, our investors.

第三，該行業需要可持續的產品。為了實現這一目標，我們對人員、研發和供應鏈的投資需要回報。所有這一切對 Orion、我們工廠的員工以及您，我們的投資者來說都是公平的。

Slide 4 is a good visual representation of our growing profitability. This is our third consecutive year of adjusted EBITDA growth. And based on our current guidance for 2024, this trend should continue. This also reflects how special our market space is. There not many chemical or materials companies who had a record 2023, and we expect to set a new record this year.

幻燈片 4 很好地直觀地展示了我們不斷增長的盈利能力。這是我們調整後 EBITDA 連續第三年成長。根據我們目前對 2024 年的指導，這種趨勢應該會持續下去。這也體現了我們的市場空間有多麼特殊。2023 年創下紀錄的化學或材料公司不多，我們預計今年將創下新紀錄。

We're in a niche space with very attractive industry restructure. The completion of the US air emissions work, which was a burden is another structural positive for us going forward. Despite those US air emission projects, our ROCE has stabilized at a level well above our cost, of capital. It is great to have a [spending binders].

我們處於一個利基空間，產業重組非常有吸引力。美國廢氣排放工作的完成雖然是一種負擔，但對我們未來的發展來說是另一個結構性正面因素。儘管有這些美國空氣排放項目，我們的 ROCE 仍穩定在遠高於我們資本成本的水平。很高興有一個[支出黏合劑]。

With that, I would ask Jeff to provide additional insights into our financial results and long-term goals.

因此，我會請傑夫提供有關我們的財務表現和長期目標的更多見解。

Thank you, Corning. On slide 5, you can see the consolidated results for the fourth quarter. Beyond this slide, I will focus more on the full year, but the detailed quarterly financial and EBITDA walks for both businesses are in the appendix.

謝謝你，康寧。在投影片 5 上，您可以看到第四季的綜合業績。除了這張投影片之外，我將更專注於全年情況，但兩家公司詳細的季度財務和 EBITDA 情況請參見附錄。

For Q4, volume was up mainly from the specialty polymers market and from our new facility in China. This was partly offset by lower volume in the Americas. Revenue was essentially flat due to higher contractual pricing in our rubber business, offset by lower oil pricing in the quarter. Gross profit and gross profit per ton were down due to the co-generation effects from the lower European electricity pricing and unfavorable product and geographic mix in both segments.

第四季的銷售成長主要來自特種聚合物市場和我們在中國的新工廠。這在一定程度上被美洲銷量下降所抵消。由於我們橡膠業務的合約定價較高，收入基本上持平，但被本季較低的石油價格所抵消。由於歐洲電價較低以及兩個細分市場不利的產品和地理組合帶來的熱電聯產效應，毛利和每噸毛利下降。

In addition, higher maintenance turnaround activity, including Huaibei, the final EPA start-up costs and other timing items affected the quarter.

此外，較高的維護週轉活動（包括淮北）、最終 EPA 啟動成本和其他時間項目影響了本季。

Gross profit per ton was up slightly in rubber versus Q4 last year, but down sequentially at $357. Rubber gross profit was leaked due to several reasons. First, volume was slightly up, but we had more volume in China and less in the Americas. This geographical split adversely impacts gross profit. Second, the expected impact on co-generation from lower electricity prices in Europe. And finally, continued start-up costs at Huaibei and the final EPA project, which was rubber gross profit, it's gross profit level.

與去年第四季相比，橡膠每噸毛利略有上升，但季減至 357 美元。橡膠毛利因多種原因外洩。首先，銷量略有上升，但我們在中國的銷量較多，而在美洲的銷量較少。這種地域劃分對毛利產生了不利影響。其次，歐洲電價下降對熱電聯產的預期影響。最後，淮北持續的啟動成本和最終的 EPA 項目，即橡膠毛利潤，毛利水準。

Specialty gross profit per ton was down very sharply versus prior year and sequentially at $492. While we have higher volume, it was primarily from a lower margin polymer market in Huaibei. This resulted in a less profitable product mix in the quarter. Specialty was impacted by the lower electricity prices in Europe, similar to rubber. European co-gen effects are more impactful in specialty on a per ton basis since global rubber volumes at three to four times that of specialty.

特種產品每噸毛利較去年大幅下降，較去年同期下降至 492 美元。雖然我們的銷量較高，但主要來自利潤率較低的淮北聚合物市場。這導致本季產品組合的利潤下降。與橡膠類似，特種產品也受到歐洲電價較低的影響。由於全球橡膠產量是特殊橡膠的三到四倍，歐洲的熱電聯產效應對每噸特殊橡膠的影響更大。

Finally, costs were up due to higher maintenance, startup, and timing related items. We'll talk more about how we expect specialty to recover in both the near and longer term in subsequent slides.

最後，由於維護、啟動和計時相關項目的增加，成本也增加了。我們將在隨後的幻燈片中更多地討論我們期望專業技術在近期和長期內如何復甦。

One final item in the quarter, our tax rate was extremely high. This was due to a few items which impacted the full-year tax rate, specifically a provision for a German tax audit going back to 2017 in prior year tax adjustment [of full year crew of our L2] tax strategies. The full year tax rate was 37%. We expect to be back near 30% for 2024.

本季的最後一項是，我們的稅率非常高。這是由於一些項目影響了全年稅率，特別是在上一年稅收調整（我們的 L2 全年工作人員）稅收策略中對可追溯到 2017 年的德國稅務審計的規定。全年稅率為37%。我們預計 2024 年將恢復近 30%。

On slide 6, for the full year, the success of our rubber price -- 2023 rubber pricing negotiations helped us achieve a record adjusted EBITDA despite numerous headwinds in both businesses. Customers advents weaken as the year progressed. Ultimately, volume was down across all regions except China. Electricity prices in Europe were dramatically lower from their elevated level in 2022. This alone had a $30 million impact on 2023 results.

在幻燈片 6 上，全年來看，我們的橡膠價格 - 2023 年橡膠定價談判的成功幫助我們實現了創紀錄的調整後 EBITDA，儘管這兩項業務都面臨著諸多阻力。隨著時間的推移，客戶數量逐漸減少。最終，除中國以外的所有地區的銷量均出現下降。歐洲的電價較 2022 年的高點大幅下降。光是這一點就對 2023 年業績產生了 3,000 萬美元的影響。

Without this impact, the gross profit per ton would have been up $50 instead of $18. Mix deteriorated due to the relative performance of our specialty end markets. With the exception of a printing market, we expect those markets to improve over time.

如果沒有這種影響，每噸毛利將增加 50 美元，而不是 18 美元。由於我們的專業終端市場的相對錶現，混合狀況惡化。除印刷市場外，我們預計這些市場會隨著時間的推移而改善。

Slide 7 provides the year-to-date EBITDA drivers. Strong pricing and rubber was offset by weaker volume across both businesses and less benefit from co-generation. Last year's very high European electricity prices made for a difficult comparable. We also have Huaibei and EPA start-up costs, related to start-up costs.

幻燈片 7 提供了今年迄今為止的 EBITDA 驅動因素。強勁的定價和橡膠被兩項業務銷售疲軟和熱電聯產收益減少所抵消。去年歐洲電價非常高，因此很難進行比較。我們還有淮北和環保署的啟動費用，跟啟動費用有關。

On slide 8, our rubber volume decrease was impacted by lower demand in the Americas and EMEA and lack of recovery in tire production in those markets. We experienced a higher gross profit per ton driven by the contractual price increases, but this was partially offset by the lower co-generation pricing effects.

在投影片 8 中，我們的橡膠產量下降是受到美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲需求下降以及這些市場輪胎生產缺乏復甦的影響。由於合約價格上漲，我們的每噸毛利有所增加，但這被較低的熱電聯產定價效應部分抵消。

It's important to note that our 2023 gross profit per ton was up 22% compared with 2022. As Corning noted, we have successful 2024 price negotiation and expect next year's gross profit per ton to be in line with the full year 2023 levels.

值得注意的是，我們 2023 年的每噸毛利比 2022 年成長了 22%。正如康寧所指出的，我們已經成功完成了2024年的價格談判，並預計明年的每噸毛利將與2023年全年水準保持一致。

Slide 9 shows in a waterfall chart, the effects of rubber, as discussed on previous slide.

投影片 9 以瀑布圖顯示了橡膠的影響，如上一張投影片中所討論的。

On slide 10. Volume was relatively flat, especially for the year, with weakness across most geographies and the printing market, offset by gains in China and the polymer market. All other financial metrics were down. The change in mix as well as the reduction of co-generation effects due to the lower European power pricing contributed to the weaker results.

在投影片 10 上。銷量相對平穩，尤其是今年，大多數地區和印刷市場均疲軟，但被中國和聚合物市場的成長所抵消。所有其他財務指標均下降。結構的變化以及歐洲電價較低導致熱電聯產效應的減弱導致了業績疲軟。

As we look forward, we believe the following will move in positive direction for specialty, volumes will improve as we move toward mid-cycle conditions. Two, as volumes improve, we believe we will have more pricing power. Three, mix should improve with business conditions and as a result of our de-bottlenecking of our premium products. It's early, but we're starting to see some promising signs. Four, the EPA and Huaibei startup cost are [minimized]. And five, the battery market remains a significant upside for us.

展望未來，我們相信特種產品將朝著正面的方向發展，隨著我們走向週期中期，銷售量將會提高。第二，隨著銷售量的增加，我們相信我們將擁有更大的定價能力。第三，由於我們消除了優質產品的瓶頸，組合應該會隨著業務狀況而改善。現在還為時過早，但我們已經開始看到一些有希望的跡象。四、環保署和淮北啟動成本[最小化]。第五，電池市場對我們來說仍具有顯著的上漲空間。

On the slide 11, which shows in a waterfall chart, those categories affecting specialty as discussed on the previous slide. Gross profit per ton decreased due to both geographic mix, what you see in volume; market mix of sales, which you see in mix; as well as lower coal generation effects, which you see in costs. Importantly, to the specific mix of products that we sold in the quarter, our pricing has remained stable.

投影片 11 以瀑布圖顯示了上一張投影片中討論的影響專業的類別。每噸毛利下降是由於地理混合和數量造成的。銷售的市場組合，您可以在混合中看到；以及較低的煤炭發電影響，您可以在成本中看到這一點。重要的是，對於我們本季銷售的特定產品組合，我們的定價保持穩定。

Slide 12 looks at cash flow for the year. Our improved cash flow allow us to both repurchase $66 million worth of shares and reduce our debt by $78 million. Our debt to EBITDA ratio now stands at 2.35, down from nearly three times just 18 months ago.

幻燈片 12 著眼於本年度的現金流。我們改善的現金流使我們能夠回購價值 6,600 萬美元的股票，並減少 7,800 萬美元的債務。我們的債務與 EBITDA 比率目前為 2.35，較 18 個月前的近三倍下降。

As Corning mentioned earlier on the call, we spent $1.10 per share to repurchase stock and $1.30 per share to reduce our debt. Our goal is to reduce our total debt, improve our net debt to EBITDA ratio, and continue to strengthen our balance sheet. We've made substantial progress in all of these areas over the past year.

正如康寧之前在電話會議上提到的，我們花了每股 1.10 美元回購股票，並花了每股 1.30 美元來減少債務。我們的目標是減少總債務，提高淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率，並繼續強化我們的資產負債表。過去一年，我們在所有這些領域都取得了實質進展。

On slide 13, we have transitioned to a dramatic increase in our discretionary cash flow conversion as we have stepped up our profitability and at the same time, completing our EPA projects. Note that our 2023 conversion rate included $89 million of working capital improvement from changes in our customer agreements. We expect to maintain this benefit till 2024.

在投影片 13 中，隨著我們提高獲利能力並同時完成 EPA 項目，我們的可自由支配現金流量轉換已大幅增加。請注意，我們 2023 年的轉換率包括因客戶協議變更而帶來的 8,900 萬美元營運資金改善。我們預計這一優勢將維持到 2024 年。

Let's look at capital spending on slide 14. Up through 2023, we had a significant CapEx related to our EPA report. The spending reduced in 2023 is now behind us. With our increased EBITDA and no future EPA capital spending, we expect to focus on growth investments, in high-return projects, as well as a sustained higher level of maintenance projects, which will improve reliability.

讓我們看看幻燈片 14 上的資本支出。截至 2023 年，我們有大量與 EPA 報告相關的資本支出。2023 年削減的支出現已成為過去。隨著 EBITDA 的增加以及未來 EPA 資本支出的減少，我們預計將重點關注高回報項目的成長投資，以及持續更高水準的維護項目，這將提高可靠性。

For 2024 and 2025, the majority of our growth CapEx will be for our conductive plant in La Porte, Texas. We will also complete some high-return debottlenecking projects in our specialty business. Other than La Porte, the growth investments shown in 2025 carry us beyond our 2025 mid-cycle EBITDA capacity goals. We will prioritize those accordingly as we develop our 2025 capital plan later this year.

2024 年和 2025 年，我們大部分的成長資本支出將用於我們位於德州拉波特的導電工廠。我們還將在專業業務上完成一些高回報的去瓶頸專案。除了 La Porte 之外，2025 年的成長投資使我們超越了 2025 年中期 EBITDA 產能目標。今年稍後制定 2025 年資本計畫時，我們將相應地優先考慮這些問題。

The Huaibei for 2025 is a placeholder for those potential growth and productivity opportunities. These projects are not committed to at this point. And again, we will prioritize them as part of our capital allocation process.

2025 年的淮北是這些潛在成長和生產力機會的佔位符。目前尚未承諾這些項目。再次，我們將優先考慮它們作為我們資本分配過程的一部分。

Perhaps another way to look at this is between maintenance and report, we expect to spend approximately $140 million to $150 million of CapEx in 2025. The remaining $50 million to $60 million will be fully discretionary and are currently just a placeholder.

也許看待這個問題的另一種方式是在維護和報告之間，我們預計 2025 年將花費約 1.4 億至 1.5 億美元的資本支出。剩餘的 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元將完全由您自行決定，目前只是一個佔位符。

On the slide 15. Before we discuss our 2024 guidance, we want to provide an update on our progress toward our mid-cycle capacity goal of $500 million of EBITDA. We believe in this cycle; we would expect global economies and demand for our product to be at pre-COVID levels. We would not expect extraordinary pricing for carbon black or rubber pricing that would increase sufficiently to offset cost inflation.

在投影片 15 上。在討論 2024 年指引之前，我們希望先介紹一下實現 5 億美元 EBITDA 的中期產能目標的最新進展。我們相信這個循環；我們預計全球經濟和對我們產品的需求將達到新冠疫情之前的水平。我們預計炭黑或橡膠的價格不會大幅上漲，足以抵銷成本上漲。

The volume level, which of course, correspond to on plant utilization in the upper 80% range and generated rubber volume of 840 to 860 kt and 260 and 280 kt for specialty. Specialty volume excludes the incremental 12 kt from Le Porte. For us to meet these volume levels, we do not require significant growth investments except for Le Porte project. We have achieved these volumes before and we are confident we can do it again.

當然，產量水準與工廠利用率在 80% 以上的範圍相對應，產生的橡膠產量為 840 至 860 噸，特種橡膠產量為 260 和 280 噸。專業卷不包括 Le Porte 增量 12 kt。為了滿足這些數量水平，除了 Le Porte 項目外，我們不需要大量的成長投資。我們之前已經實現了這些銷量，我們有信心能夠再次做到這一點。

On slide 16, as -- Corning will discuss 2024 guidance shortly, but it will have a midpoint of $350 million of EBITDA. To move from $350 million to $500 million, there are three major components. First off, the CapEx conductor's business should have about $50 million. Most of that 80% to 90% comes from Le Porte plant, which we expect to be onstream in mid-2025. The remaining $100 million gain is split $70 million in volume, and $30 million in margin. The former is primarily recovery in our end markets to mid-cycle level. This includes approximately 80 to 118 kt rubber and 20 to 40 kt, especially compared with our estimates for 2024. Most of this capacity is already in place to achieve these volume goals.

在幻燈片 16 中，康寧很快就會討論 2024 年的指導，但其 EBITDA 的中點為 3.5 億美元。要從 3.5 億美元增加到 5 億美元，需要三個主要組成部分。首先，資本支出指揮者的業務應該有大約 5,000 萬美元。其中 80% 至 90% 的大部分來自 Le Porte 工廠，我們預計該工廠將於 2025 年中期投產。剩餘的 1 億美元收益分為 7,000 萬美元的交易量和 3,000 萬美元的利潤。前者主要是我們的終端市場恢復到週期中期水準。其中包括大約 80 至 118 噸橡膠和 20 至 40 噸，特別是與我們對 2024 年的估計相比。大部分產能已經到位，可以實現這些產量目標。

There is a portion of the specialty volume growth that requires completing de-bottlenecking projects for some high end products. But again, most of the volume gains needed are from market improvement, not capacity increase. Using the midpoint, the 90 kt of rubber volume would be at an incremental EBITDA per ton of approximately $400, very much in line with our current GP per ton and with minimal added cost, this math makes sense.

特種產品銷售的部分成長需要完成一些高端產品的去瓶頸項目。但同樣，所需的銷售成長大部分來自市場改善，而不是產能增加。使用中點，90 噸橡膠產量的每噸 EBITDA 增量約為 400 美元，與我們目前的每噸 GP 非常一致，並且增加成本最小，這個數學是有道理的。

For specialty, the incremental volume 30 kt is closer to $100 per ton. This volumes partly due to the recovery of the current market mix, which has a lower incremental profit plus volume gains in our higher-end products, including the de-bottlenecking projects that we have discussed in the past. This is not simply a math exercise, we have specific products in high end markets that achieve these margin levels today.

對於特種產品，30 噸的增量接近每噸 100 美元。這項銷售的部分原因是目前市場組合的復甦，增量利潤較低，加上我們高端產品的銷售成長，包括我們過去討論過的去瓶頸項目。這不僅僅是一個數學練習，我們在高端市場擁有能夠達到今天這些利潤水平的特定產品。

Finally, the $30 million of margin gains are pricing and mix. The $500 million target split roughly 60-40 between rubber and specialty. The details for each business are also in the appendix slides.

最後，3000 萬美元的利潤收益來自於定價和組合。5 億美元的目標在橡膠和特殊產品之間大約各佔 60-40 分。每個業務的詳細資訊也在附錄幻燈片中。

With that, I will turn the call back over to Corning to discuss our 2024 guidance.

接下來，我會將電話轉回康寧，討論我們的 2024 年指導方針。

Thanks, Jeff. And just one clarification. It's $1,000 per ton on the specialty, and we think that makes sense for all the reasons Jeff just outlined.

謝謝，傑夫。只需要澄清一件事。該特種產品的價格為每噸 1,000 美元，我們認為考慮到傑夫剛才概述的所有原因，這是有道理的。

Based on our discussions with customers and given the slow recovery in our markets that we've observed, we're projecting mid-single digit adjusted EBITDA percentage growth to 2024. Many chemical firms saw their profit shrinking in 2023 and are bouncing back from a lower base. With projections of a soft landing in the US and the expected weakness in the EU and Chinese economies, we expect our EBITDA growth for 2024 to be similar to what we achieved in 2023.

根據我們與客戶的討論以及我們觀察到的市場復甦緩慢，我們預計到 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 百分比將實現中個位數成長。許多化工公司的利潤在 2023 年出現萎縮，但正在從較低的基數中反彈。鑑於美國軟著陸的預測以及歐盟和中國經濟的疲軟預期，我們預計 2024 年 EBITDA 成長將與 2023 年相似。

That said, we believe we are well positioned for whatever 2024 brings, and it will be another year of record growth for Orion. We are confident in our business and we are setting our adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $340 million to $360 million today. This EBITDA guidance is up over 5% at the midpoint and supports our adjusted EPS guidance range of $2.05 to $2.20 per share, which is an increase of 11% at the midpoint.

也就是說，我們相信我們已準備好迎接 2024 年帶來的一切，這將是 Orion 創紀錄增長的另一年。我們對我們的業務充滿信心，今天我們將調整後的 EBITDA 指引範圍設定為 3.4 億美元至 3.6 億美元。該 EBITDA 指引中位數成長超過 5%，支持我們調整後的每股盈餘指引範圍 2.05 美元至 2.20 美元，中位數成長 11%。

I'll close with six points. First, we built on last year's rubber pricing gains an offset. Second, we're beginning to see a rebound in specialty mix in Q1. Third, 2023 was our third straight year of EBITDA growth and our expectations is that 2024 will be our four. Fourth, the US air emission projects are complete. This is huge for us.

我將以六分結束。首先，我們在去年橡膠價格上漲的基礎上進行了抵消。其次，我們開始看到第一季專業組合的反彈。第三，2023 年是我們 EBITDA 連續第三年成長，我們預計 2024 年將是第四年。四是美國廢氣排放工程已完成。這對我們來說意義重大。

Fifth, we don't have the onetime working capital reduction from improved customer terms like we did last year. Nonetheless, underlying discretionary cash continues to improve. Sixth, this year, our growth investments are focused on our new acetylene base plant in La Porte, Texas, and some de-bottlenecking of our high-value products to customers want.

第五，我們沒有像去年那樣因改善客戶條件而一次減少營運資本。儘管如此，基本的可自由支配現金仍在繼續改善。第六，今年，我們的成長投資主要集中在德州拉波特的新乙炔基地工廠，以及消除我們高價值產品滿足客戶需求的瓶頸。

With that Renju, please and open up the lines for questions.

請用連珠來提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Josh Spector, UBS.

喬許‧斯佩克特，瑞銀集團。

Yes, hi. Good morning. [I guess two things] so I wanted to ask around CapEx. And I think in the comments you made -- clarified a bit, but so 2025, really what should we be expecting as a base case? So it's $150 million-ish, the base case, and then you would invest more in de-bottlenecking if need be? And I asked that in the context of you show what capacity you have in specialty; you have a pretty muted outlook on volume this year. It would seem you could kind of grow into your capacity over the next few years and maybe shift to cash return versus growth? And I'm just wondering how you're thinking about that different dynamic.

是的，嗨。早安. [我猜有兩件事]所以我想問資本支出。我認為您在評論中做了一些澄清，但到 2025 年，我們真正應該期待什麼作為基本案例？所以，基本情況是 1.5 億美元左右，然後如果需要，您會在消除瓶頸方面投入更多資金嗎？我要求在你的背景下展現你的專業能力；您對今年的成交量前景相當黯淡。看來您可以在未來幾年內提​​高自己的能力，並可能轉向現金回報而不是成長？我只是想知道你如何看待這種不同的動態。

Yeah. So I think you're correct, right. You should think about $150 million-ish or a number that we're on track of for next year. And then we'll look at the additional cash we have and will consider strategic options. So maybe there's something around batteries that we want to continue to invest in and see an important element there. It might be that we see -- note, really the best thing here simply to return that capital via share purchase or other mechanisms for it. It might be that we decide to bring live lower risk productivity projects. But I say $150 million is what we're on track for. And we're really just trying to show that we have growth opportunities. We have opportunities to enhance our profitability that are discretionary of course.

是的。所以我認為你是對的，對吧。你應該考慮 1.5 億美元左右或我們明年預計的數字。然後我們將看看我們擁有的額外現金，並考慮策略選擇。因此，也許我們希望在電池方面繼續投資，並看到其中一個重要的元素。我們可能會看到—請注意，實際上最好的方法就是透過股票購買或其他機制回饋資本。我們可能決定實施低風險生產力專案。但我說 1.5 億美元是我們的目標。我們實際上只是想表明我們擁有成長機會。我們有機會提高我們的獲利能力，當然這是可以自行決定的。

Jeff, anything you'd like to add?

傑夫，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I think that's a pretty clear --. We will decide this as we get later this calendar year. We're looking into 2025, our capital allocation, what's the right approach for us? I think importantly, though, if we do spend in 2025 through growth or productivity CapEx, it's not likely to have a significant impact on 2025 profitability levels more beyond that.

不。我認為這很清楚--.我們將在今年晚些時候做出決定。我們正在展望 2025 年，我們的資本配置，對我們來說正確的方法是什麼？但我認為重要的是，如果我們確實在 2025 年透過成長或生產力資本支出進行支出，那麼它不太可能對 2025 年獲利水準產生更大的重大影響。

Yeah, thanks. And I guess I mean, what do you say investors that might look at that slide 14 and say, you spent a couple of hundred million dollars on growth investments. And you're not seeing it in specialty. I guess obviously that's probably not fair in the context of where volumes are today. But what's the embedded view there about your success on those investments and returns?

是的，謝謝。我想我的意思是，你說投資者可能會看到幻燈片 14 並說，你在成長投資上花費了數億美元。而且你沒有在專業領域看到它。我想顯然，就目前的交易量而言，這可能不公平。但是，您對這些投資和回報的成功有何內在看法呢？

Right. So look, the one big investment we have in specialty is the acetylene facility in La Porte, and it's not on stream yet. So no one should expect to see something from that yet. People should look at that as I think I'd say, yeah, they're on track for $150 million next year, but it's a company that has growth prospects. So there's another concern out there, what's your next act? And I would just say we have choices on it, but their choices. And clearly we don't think the market's ready, we don't think the timing's right, if we don't think the environment is clear, then we wouldn't do it.

正確的。所以看，我們在專業領域的一項重大投資是位於拉波特的乙炔工廠，但它尚未投產。因此，目前還沒有人應該指望從中看到什麼。人們應該像我想的那樣看待這一點，是的，他們明年有望達到 1.5 億美元，但這是一家有成長前景的公司。那麼還有另一個問題，你的下一步是什麼？我只想說我們有選擇，但他們有選擇。顯然，我們認為市場還沒準備好，我們認為時機不對，如果我們認為環境不明確，那麼我們就不會這樣做。

Yeah. Sorry, I guess I was asking about more of the historical spend. I mean, obviously La Porte isn't in there, but over the last five years, you've spent a couple of hundred million on growth investments. Specialty is still underperforming versus 2019. I guess, how do you think about the returns on those investments. Have those met your expectations? Is it just we're not seeing it any comments there. Thanks.

是的。抱歉，我想我是在問更多的歷史支出。我的意思是，顯然拉波特不在那裡，但在過去的五年裡，你已經在成長投資上花費了數億美元。與 2019 年相比，專業仍表現不佳。我想，您如何看待這些投資的回報？這些是否達到了您的期望？難道只是我們沒有看到任何評論嗎？謝謝。

Look so I would say the investment in Ravenna, that's worked out very, very well for us. It was loaded very quickly. Let's say the investment in [Bayer] was quite strategic for us. It has opened up this opportunity for us in a settling. China is a more difficult market for what it's worth of the business in China. I'd say the specialties doing relatively well, it's a much more challenging environment there right now on the rubber side.

看來，我想說的是，對拉文納的投資對我們來說效果非常非常好。它加載得非常快。假設對[拜耳]的投資對我們來說非常具有戰略意義。它為我們提供了這個和解的機會。就中國業務的價值而言，中國是一個更困難的市場。我想說，特種橡膠的表現相對較好，但橡膠方面目前的環境更具挑戰性。

Okay.

好的。

I think that helped us.

我認為這對我們有幫助。

Yes, that helps. I'll turn it over. Thanks.

是的，這有幫助。我會把它翻過來。謝謝。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯·亞歷山大，杰弗里斯。

Good morning. It's Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. Thank you for taking my questions.

早安.丹·里佐 (Dan Rizzo) 替補勞倫斯 (Laurence)。感謝您回答我的問題。

When you look at your assumptions for 2025, do use assume -- I mean, I know you assume better volumes, but are you assuming any improvement in the overall macro environment in Europe, America, and in China?

當你審視對 2025 年的假設時，請使用假設——我的意思是，我知道你假設銷量更好，但你是否假設歐洲、美國和中國的整體宏觀環境有任何改善？

Yeah. And that would drive us to the kind of demand profile that we fill up those -- take us back to those levels that we achieved before. We would decide -- we would thing that is more mid cycle than the current environment, which we would say from our demand profile is quite weak, really in all three markets, in North America, Europe, and China.

是的。這將推動我們達到滿足這些需求的需求——讓我們回到之前達到的水平。我們會決定——我們會認為這比當前環境更處於週期中期，從我們的需求狀況來看，我們會說這實際上是在北美、歐洲和中國這三個市場上都相當疲軟。

So if we think about 2024 to 2025, then and I guess that would assume that the 2024, the outlook is kind of back end -- back half loaded. I was wondering about the cadence as we go into and trying to get to mid-cycle, which sort of soften beginning then let's say a sequential improvements is, I guess the way we should think about?

因此，如果我們考慮 2024 年到 2025 年，那麼我想，我們會假設 2024 年的前景是一種後端——後半負載。我想知道當我們進入並試圖進入周期中期時的節奏，哪種軟化開始然後讓我們說連續改進是，我想我們應該考慮的方式？

No, I wouldn't say that. I think, look, our sense of 2024 is not as strong as I guess, some peoples are. I was in China in Q4 -- didn't strike me as a economy that was about to accelerate. I think things are challenging in Europe and North America, where we have an interesting election cycle. And in case, nobody has noticed like the global water is a little bit stretched right now. So I think it's wise to just listen to our customers who are cautious for the year. For 2025, I think we have a good shot at being in a better place from a global economy just as the natural cycle of the economy plays out. But again, we're talking about capacity in 2025.

不，我不會這麼說。我認為，看，我們對 2024 年的感覺並不像我想像的那麼強烈，有些人。第四季我在中國——我並沒有意識到中國經濟即將加速成長。我認為歐洲和北美的情況充滿挑戰，那裡有一個有趣的選舉週期。以防萬一，沒有人注意到全球水資源現在有點緊張。因此，我認為明智的做法是聽取今年持謹慎態度的客戶的意見。到 2025 年，我認為隨著經濟自然循環的展開，我們很有可能在全球經濟中處於更好的位置。但我們再次討論的是 2025 年的產能。

Okay.

好的。

Dan, just to be clear, we're not assuming towards that's our 2025 number by any means. That's a mid-cycle capacity number for us, which is how we've been representing it.

Dan，需要明確的是，我們無論如何都不會假設這是 2025 年的數字。這對我們來說是一個中期產能數字，這也是我們一直以來的表述方式。

But I mean, with our return of the environment, I think 2025 could be a really good year for us. Okay. We won't have La Porte loaded in 2025, right? That's clear. But I think we could see a pretty dramatic swing in volumes in our base specialty and rubber business. It's going to depend upon the economic outlook in 2025 or as you say, as this year plays out.

但我的意思是，隨著我們環境的恢復，我認為 2025 年對我們來說可能是非常好的一年。好的。2025 年我們不會裝載 La Porte，對嗎？很清楚。但我認為我們的基礎特種產品和橡膠業務的銷售量可能會出現相當大的波動。這將取決於 2025 年的經濟前景，或者正如你所說，今年的情況。

All right. Thank you very much, sir.

好的。先生非常感謝您。

Jon Tanwanteng, CJS Securities.

Jon Tanwanteng，CJS 證券。

Hi, good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. I was wondering if you could go through a little bit, what you see in Q1 so far, in both segments from an underlying volume and GP per ton perspective. And I think you mentioned specialty rebound. Maybe you could give a little more color on that. Where that's coming from?

嗨，早上好，夥計們。感謝您回答我的問題。我想知道您是否可以從基礎交易量和每噸毛利的角度介紹一下您在第一季到目前為止所看到的情況。我想你提到了專業反彈。也許你可以對此給予更多的色彩。那是從哪裡來的？

And two, just my follow on, just what are you seeing in demand in first is destocking and inventory trends? Thank you.

第二，我接著說，您首先看到的需求是去庫存和庫存趨勢？謝謝。

Yeah. So interestingly, we've seen some strength in areas, some of which are more -- less differentiated, let's say, film and pipe have been stronger areas, certain degree of wire and cable. On the other hand, I'd say some things related to automotive and the manufacturers to supply that train. So adhesives, engineered plastics and areas like that are bit weaker. MRG is certainly weaker for us in China.

是的。有趣的是，我們在一些領域看到了一些優勢，其中一些領域差異化較小，比如說，薄膜和管道是較強的領域，電線和電纜也有一定程度的優勢。另一方面，我想說一些與汽車和供應火車的製造商有關的事情。因此黏合劑、工程塑膠和類似領域的性能稍弱一些。MRG 對我們在中國來說肯定較弱。

Regionally, I think we're really going to have to wait until March and April to see how China comes out of Chinese New Year. I don't see a big hockey stick flying out there, but we'd be very happy if we prove wrong on that. And I think we see slight improvement in North America and not much in Europe right now as the sentiment.

從地區來看，我認為我們真的要等到三月和四月才能看到中國如何度過農曆新年。我沒有看到一根大曲棍球棒飛出去，但如果我們證明這是錯的，我們會非常高興。我認為我們看到北美的情緒略有改善，而歐洲目前的情緒並沒有太大改善。

Okay. And just on the end demand versus inventories and destocking trends, especially in tires?

好的。就最終需求與庫存和去庫存趨勢而言，尤其是輪胎方面？

Yeah. So I mean, clearly, anecdotally we hear from some players, let's say like distributors who didn't place very large orders last year. One of our largest one with the whole thing began, I asked him one of the owners, like how you think those are going to play out. And he compared it to previous recessions and how people overbought, overbought, and then realize. wow, I got a year's supply in my warehouse. And two or three years ago, he predicted that to us.

是的。所以我的意思是，顯然，我們從一些參與者那裡聽到了一些軼事，比如說去年沒有下很大訂單的經銷商。我們最大的一件事開始了，我問他的一位業主，你認為這些事情會如何發展。他將其與之前的經濟衰退進行了比較，以及人們如何超買、超買，然後意識到。哇，我的倉庫裡有一年的供應量。兩三年前，他就向我們預言了這一點。

What we're seeing now is some of those players -- have placed or beginning to place orders. So I think there's some indication that destocking, at least, in that space seems to be improving for us at this point. But this is very much a customer by customer situation and it's going to depend over the course of the year, how they seeing customer demand right now.

我們現在看到的是其中一些參與者已經下訂單或開始下訂單。因此，我認為有一些跡象表明，至少在這一領域，目前我們的去庫存似乎正在改善。但這在很大程度上取決於客戶的具體情況，並將取決於一年中他們如何看待客戶現在的需求。

Okay, great. I'll join back in the queue. Thank you.

好的，太好了。我會重新加入隊列。謝謝。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

傑夫‧澤考斯卡斯，摩根大通。

Cai, this is Lydia Huang on for Jeff. Can you talk about what to expect in 2024 in terms of pricing in the specialty segment?

蔡，我是傑夫的莉迪亞·黃。您能否談談 2024 年專業細分市場定價的預期？

So I think the strength in pricing, as we've said, we've been holding our price for the specific products that we're in. I think that we'll be able to continue to do that as the year plays out. If we see a dramatic tightening in this market, obviously, supply and demand that would favor it. But I think that's maybe not going to be the biggest part of the story for this year.

因此，我認為定價的優勢，正如我們所說，我們一直維持我們所從事的特定產品的價格。我認為隨著這一年的結束，我們將能夠繼續這樣做。如果我們看到這個市場急劇收緊，顯然供應和需求都會對其有利。但我認為這可能不會成為今年故事的最大部分。

When you look at Orion, specifically, though, I would always say keep in mind, mix is very important for us. So certain end segments, we add more value. So we were able to share in more value when we sell that. So the mix is where I think you're much more likely to see is that in let's say, raw and customer pricing changes.

不過，當你具體看 Orion 時，我總是會說記住，混合對我們來說非常重要。因此，在某些最終細分市場，我們增加了更多價值。因此，當我們出售它時，我們能夠分享更多的價值。因此，我認為您更有可能看到的混合是，比方說，原始價格和客戶價格的變化。

And in terms of price and mix, do you see it trending down sequentially quarter to date in relation to fourth quarter levels?

就價格和產品組合而言，您是否認為與第四季度的水平相比，本季迄今其價格呈連續下降趨勢？

No. We do not.

不。我們不。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Jon Tanwanteng, CJS Securities.

Jon Tanwanteng，CJS 證券。

Hi, I was wondering if you could give us a little more color on the competitive environment. You mentioned, obviously that you finished your EPA investments. Some of your peers have not done so -- and I'm wondering what benefits that accrues to you? How that's incorporated your guidance and if you're actually seeing that in the market?

你好，我想知道你能否給我們更多關於競爭環境的資訊。你提到，顯然你已經完成了 EPA 的投資。你的一些同行還沒有這樣做——我想知道這會為你帶來什麼好處？這是如何納入您的指導的？您是否真的在市場上看到了這一點？

So I think that will play out for us when competitors bring on their plants. And oftentimes, that's a challenging item because these plants are not the very young plants, so to speak. So that startup of the new equipment can be challenging and certainly challenging for us as we did that work on our final plan. So I'd expect to see an impact if it plays out that way in Q2 or possibly Q3 for us.

因此，我認為當競爭對手引進他們的工廠時，這將對我們產生影響。通常，這是一個具有挑戰性的項目，因為可以這麼說，這些植物不是非常年輕的植物。因此，新設備的啟動可能具有挑戰性，對我們來說當然具有挑戰性，因為我們在最終計劃中進行了這項工作。因此，如果它在第二季或可能在第三季對我們產生這種影響，我預計會看到影響。

Got it. Thank you. Jeff, I think you mentioned or maybe it was you, Corning, that you expect the GP per ton to be relatively flat this year. Did I mishear that or was that referring to a specific segment? And if so, kind of tell me what the understand what the drivers are to that with prices going up and if you expect volumes and prices (multiple speakers) --

知道了。謝謝。傑夫，我想你提到過，或者也許是你，康寧，你預計今年每噸的毛利率將相對持平。我是聽錯了還是指的是某個特定片段？如果是這樣，請告訴我價格上漲的驅動因素是什麼，以及您是否期望銷售和價格（多位發言者）——

Sure. I actually think, I was references rubber that we expected rubber GP per ton which was just over $400 a ton this past year. In 2023, we would expect to be very similar to 2024. So the price increases, as Corning talked about, we also had some cost increases, inflationary cost increases. And we have the if you recall, we've talked about a little bit of the headwind, we have on the co-generation for some of the forward items that we bought last -- [half power forward] last year, which helped us. So we expect GP per ton, and those are really targeted towards rubber.

當然。我實際上認為，我參考了橡膠，我們預計去年每噸橡膠的 GP 剛剛超過 400 美元。我們預計 2023 年的情況將與 2024 年非常相似。因此，正如康寧所說，價格上漲，我們也有一些成本增加，通貨膨脹成本增加。如果你還記得的話，我們已經討論過一些逆風，我們去年購買了一些前鋒項目的熱電聯產——[半大前鋒]，這對我們有幫助。因此，我們預計每噸的 GP，這些確實是針對橡膠的。

Got it. Can you quantify the year-over-year impact of co-gen, if possible?

知道了。如果可能的話，您能否量化熱電聯產的逐年影響？

So the co-gen, we do have the $10 million impact on co-gen. And perhaps it end up even a little bit more than that. You're talking '23 to '24, or '22 to '23, I'm sorry?

因此，對於熱電聯產，我們確實對熱電聯產產生了 1000 萬美元的影響。也許最終的結果甚至不止於此。抱歉，您是在說“23 到 24”，還是“22 到 23”？

If you give both, that would be great, but I was looking more for '23, '24.

如果你兩者都提供，那就太好了，但我正在尋找更多“23”、“24”。

Okay. No problem. '22 and '23, we have, as we mentioned, was $30 million, but that was primarily due to the price impact of power in Europe in 2022. 2023 to 2024, we'll probably have -- we certainly have a $10 million headwind that we have from the [forward contract] that we bought. We also have some additional if you look at price, most of it -- most of the impact was in 2023, but we will see additional impact in 2024. Perhaps another $5 million to $10 million beyond that.

好的。沒問題。正如我們所提到的，'22 和 '23，我們有 3000 萬美元，但這主要是由於 2022 年歐洲電力價格的影響。2023 年到 2024 年，我們可能會——我們當然有 1000 萬美元我們購買的[遠期合約]所帶來的阻力。如果你看看價格，我們還有一些額外的影響，其中大部分 - 大部分影響發生在 2023 年，但我們將在 2024 年看到額外的影響。除此之外，也許還需要 500 萬到 1000 萬美元。

Understood. Thank you, guys.

明白了。感謝你們。

Sure.

當然。

(Operator Instructions) There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor over to Corning Painter for closing comments.

（操作員說明） 目前沒有其他問題。我現在想請康寧畫家徵求結束意見。

Okay. Thank you for that. And so one thing I'd add, Josh, just in my response to you on the whole issue of volumes. Also keep in mind that Ravenna was initially going to be aimed at specialty. That plant came on as the invasion took place. And so that has really shifted that capacity over to the rubber area, just one other area for your modeling thoughts as you think about that.

好的。謝謝你。喬什，我想在我對整個卷問題的答覆中補充一件事。請記住，拉文納最初的目標是專業。當入侵發生時，那棵植物就出現了。因此，這確實將這種能力轉移到了橡膠區域，這只是您思考時建模思想的另一個區域。

But look, I just want to thank everyone for taking time out of your day to be with us. We appreciate. Your time is valuable. And just one last time, and it's just hard to describe not just the capital of the distraction and the effort to have the EPA work behind us is really tremendous for Orion. So with that, I hope you all have a good rest of your day. Thank you.

但聽著，我只是想感謝大家抽出時間來和我們在一起。我們很感激。您的時間很寶貴。這只是最後一次，很難描述不僅是分散注意力的資本，而且讓 EPA 在我們身後工作的努力對 Orion 來說確實是巨大的。因此，我希望大家度過愉快的一天。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。