Oddity Tech Ltd (ODD) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the ODDITY's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded and we have allocated time for prepared remarks and Q&A. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Maria Lycouris, Investor Relations for ODDITY. Thank you. You may begin.

早上好，歡迎參加 ODDITY 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音，我們已經分配了時間準備評論和問答。這次，我想將會議交給 ODDITY 投資者關係部的 Maria Lycouris。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. I'm joined by Oran Holtzman, ODDITY's Co-Founder and CEO, and Lindsay Drucker Mann, ODDITY's Global CFO. As a reminder, management's remarks on this call that do not concern past events are forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，接線生。ODDITY 聯合創辦人兼執行長 Oran Holtzman 和 ODDITY 全球財務長 Lindsay Drucker Mann 也加入了我的行列。提醒一下，管理階層在這次電話會議上發表的與過去事件無關的言論均為前瞻性陳述。

These may include predictions, expectations, or estimates, including statements about ODDITY's business strategy, market opportunity, future financial performance, and potential long-term success. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results could differ materially due to a variety of factors.

這些可能包括預測、預期或估計，包括有關 ODDITY 業務策略、市場機會、未來財務表現和潛在長期成功的陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，實際結果可能因多種因素而有重大差異。

These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release issued yesterday and in our Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 6, 2024. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today.

這些因素在我們昨天發布的收益新聞稿和我們於 2024 年 3 月 6 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 20-F 表格年度報告中的前瞻性陳述中進行了描述。我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務，這些陳述僅代表今天的情況。

Finally, during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are useful supplemental measures for understanding our business. Additional information about these non-GAAP financial measures, including their definitions, are included in our earnings press release, which we issued yesterday.

最後，在本次電話會議中，我們將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標，我們認為這些指標對於了解我們的業務是有用的補充指標。有關這些非公認會計準則財務指標的更多資訊（包括其定義）包含在我們昨天發布的收益新聞稿中。

I will now hand the call over to Oran.

我現在將電話轉交給奧蘭。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. The beauty industry is transforming, and ODDITY is leading this transformation. The strength and resilience of our direct-to-consumer model is on full display in this market backdrop. In contrast to most of our competitors, who are experiencing slowing sales, weaker foot traffic, and excess inventory, ODDITY is constantly delivering strong and profitable growth.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。美容產業正在發生變革，而 ODDITY 正在引領這場變革。我們直接面向消費者模式的優勢和彈性在這一市場背景下得到了充分展示。我們的大多數競爭對手都面臨著銷售放緩、人流量減少和庫存過剩的問題，與此相反，ODDITY 卻不斷實現強勁且盈利的成長。

Our third-quarter results once again demonstrate how ODDITY is leading in the most important vectors of growth in the global beauty market. First, the massive consumer shift online, where ODDITY is already dominating as the largest direct-to-consumer platform online. And second, the consumer's increasing demand for high performance products

我們的第三季業績再次證明 ODDITY 如何在全球美容市場最重要的成長領域中處於領先地位。首先，消費者大規模轉向線上，ODDITY 已成為最大的線上直接面向消費者平台。其次，消費者對高性能產品的需求不斷增加

Results for this quarter show how our early investments in technology continue to pay dividends, allowing us to deliver yet another quarter of outstanding growth, profitability, and strong cash flows. It creates a positive feedback loop for our business, as we redeploy our strong excess cash flows to double down on investments in technology, science, and building new brands, all of which will strengthen our competitive position and will continue to deliver our future growth. Turning to our earnings results, we once again broke records across our P&L. For the first nine months of this year, revenue increased 27% to $523 million.

本季的業績顯示了我們對科技的早期投資如何繼續帶來紅利，使我們能夠在另一個季度實現出色的成長、獲利能力和強勁的現金流。它為我們的業務創造了一個積極的反饋循環，因為我們重新部署了強大的過剩現金流，以加倍加大對技術、科學和建立新品牌的投資，所有這些都將增強我們的競爭地位，並將繼續實現我們未來的成長。談到我們的獲利結果，我們的損益表再次打破了記錄。今年前 9 個月，營收成長 27%，達到 5.23 億美元。

We delivered adjusted EBITDA of $135 million and generated $119 million of free-cash flow, close to 90% of EBITDA converted to cash. To understand how strong those results are, this compares to mid-single digit growth for our large-cap competitors.

我們實現了 1.35 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，並產生了 1.19 億美元的自由現金流，其中近 90% 的 EBITDA 轉化為現金。為了了解這些結果有多強勁，我們將其與我們的大型競爭對手的中個位數成長進行比較。

Our numbers show once again the power of online and how strong our model is. As I have said many times before, the consumer shift online is a massive industry driver, and therefore we believe that the majority of the softness in beauty numbers for our competitors is mainly due to channel mix. And it is just the beginning.

我們的數據再次顯示了在線的力量以及我們的模型有多強大。正如我之前多次說過的那樣，消費者轉向線上是一個巨大的行業驅動力，因此我們認為競爭對手的美容數據疲軟主要是由於通路組合造成的。而這只是開始。

We believe online will quickly become the largest channel at 50% of the market. Those that told us in early days that beauty can't work online or questioned our DTC sustainable growth see it clearly now when we are one of the only public multi-brand beauty companies that constantly grow revenue over 20%.

我們相信線上很快就會成為最大的管道，佔據 50% 的市場。那些早期告訴我們美容不能在網上工作或質疑我們 DTC 可持續增長的人現在清楚地看到了這一點，因為我們是唯一一家收入持續增長超過 20% 的上市多品牌美容公司之一。

It is now clear that the power and advantage of our direct-to-consumer model are very deep. We have massive engagement on a daily basis with our users, directly, with no one between us. We have the data to predict which consumers are in the market to buy, and which products they are likely seeking.

現在很明顯，我們直接面向消費者的模式的力量和優勢是非常深刻的。我們每天都與用戶進行大量的直接接觸，中間沒有任何人。我們有數據來預測哪些消費者在市場上購買，以及他們可能尋求哪些產品。

That direct interaction drives higher consumer satisfaction and enables us to have greater predictability in our business with tons of agility. We are not capped by retailer distribution and how they cycle brands in and out to drive newness.

這種直接互動可以提高消費者滿意度，並使我們能夠以極大的靈活性在業務中獲得更大的可預測性。我們不受零售商分銷以及他們如何循環品牌以推動新穎性的限制。

We control our destiny, unconstrained, and therefore, can continue to grow our brands, even in tough market conditions. Our users, their desires and their data are the only things that drive our product development priorities and our launches. No retailers forcing our hand, and no head stylists guessing trends.

我們掌控自己的命運，不受約束，因此即使在嚴峻的市場條件下也能繼續發展我們的品牌。我們的用戶、他們的願望和數據是推動我們產品開發優先事項和發布的唯一因素。沒有零售商強迫我們，也沒有首席造型師猜測趨勢。

And this is why we are successful at launching new brands and new products. With our direct relationship, we know what users want, and our product development muscle allows us to create the next winners to drive growth. So this is the huge advantage we have over our competitors with our direct-to-consumer model, and why we will continue to win.

這就是我們成功推出新品牌和新產品的原因。透過我們的直接關係，我們知道用戶想要什麼，我們的產品開發能力使我們能夠創造下一個贏家來推動成長。因此，這就是我們的直接面向消費者模式相對於競爭對手的巨大優勢，也是我們將持續獲勝的原因。

I also want to address the questions we hear about the durability of direct-to-consumer. It's very important to understand why we continue to show again and again how our model is different than other DTC models that have struggled.

我還想解決我們聽到的有關直接面向消費者的持久性的問題。了解為什麼我們不斷一次又一次地展示我們的模型與其他陷入困境的 DTC 模型有何不同，這一點非常重要。

Unlike others, our business is built around acquiring users, not around acquiring customers or acquiring revenue. Our user base today is over 50 million in size, and with the data that users have given us, we understand so much about them.

與其他公司不同，我們的業務是圍繞著獲取用戶而建立的，而不是圍繞獲取客戶或獲取收入而建立的。如今，我們的用戶群規模超過 5,000 萬，透過用戶提供給我們的數據，我們對他們有了非常多的了解。

We invest a lot in technology, built an R&D center in Tel Aviv by technology talent from the Israeli tech ecosystem. Our ability to attract top technology talent from the best Israeli Intelligence units is a huge advantage. The tech team is still the largest team in the company, representing approximately 40% of our platform headcount.

我們在技術上投入了大量資金，由來自以色列科技生態系統的技術人才在特拉維夫建立了研發中心。我們能夠從以色列最好的情報部門吸引頂尖技術人才，這是一個巨大的優勢。技術團隊仍然是公司最大的團隊，約占我們平台員工總數的 40%。

This technology combined with our user data is the essential unlock to building a profitable online business. Our unit economics work for online. This is why from very early-on our cash flows were strong and enabled large and constant reinvestment in future growth.

這項技術與我們的用戶資料結合是建立獲利線上業務的關鍵。我們的單位經濟學適用於線上。這就是為什麼從一開始我們的現金流就很強勁，並且能夠為未來的成長進行大量、持續的再投資。

For other direct-to-consumer businesses, the more they scale, the harder and more expensive it is for them to grow. But for us it is the opposite, the more we scale, the easier growth becomes for us.

對於其他直接面向消費者的企業來說，規模越大，成長的難度和成本就越高。但對我們來說恰恰相反，規模越大，成長就越容易。

First, because we are growing with so much repeat. Repeat is over 50% of our revenue and increased as a percent of our mix again this year, even though we continued to grow the business more than 25%.

首先，因為我們的成長伴隨著如此多的重複。儘管我們的業務持續成長超過 25%，但重複次數占我們收入的 50% 以上，並且今年在我們的收入中所佔的百分比再次上升。

Second, because we know so much about our users, we are able to build the brands and products that they want, and then we build machine learning models to put those new brands and products in front of our users. Higher scale means for us more data, better conversion, and greater share of wallet. All of this has continued to drive strong performance for us.

其次，因為我們非常了解用戶，所以我們能夠建立他們想要的品牌和產品，然後建立機器學習模型，將這些新品牌和產品呈現在用戶面前。更高的規模對我們來說意味著更多的數據、更好的轉換和更大的錢包份額。所有這些都繼續為我們帶來強勁的業績。

In the last 12 months we generated $621 million of revenue, representing 30% growth, with 24% of adjusted EBITDA margin. We generated $127 million of free cash flow in the last 12 months, taking us to $248 million of cash on our balance sheet with zero debt, even after returning cash to our shareholders by repurchasing almost $50 million of our stock this year. This is what happens when you add technology to one of the best consumer categories in the world. So this is our opportunity, the advantage of our model, and how we have positioned the business.

在過去 12 個月中，我們創造了 6.21 億美元的收入，成長了 30%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 24%。過去12 個月，我們產生了1.27 億美元的自由現金流，使我們的資產負債表上的現金達到2.48 億美元，債務為零，即使在今年透過回購近5,000 萬美元的股票向股東返還現金之後也是如此。當您將技術添加到世界上最好的消費類別之一時，就會發生這種情況。所以這是我們的機會，我們模式的優勢，以及我們如何定位業務。

I will now turn to our growth drivers for 2025 and beyond, and why we continue to be so bullish.

我現在將談談我們 2025 年及以後的成長動力，以及為什麼我們繼續如此樂觀。

The first is our massive global TAM, a $600 billion global market, with so many categories and subcategories for us to enter into. Every year we show that we know how to do it. How to add more new products to capture higher share of this massive TAM.

第一個是我們龐大的全球TAM，一個價值6000億美元的全球市場，有這麼多的類別和子類別等待我們進入。每年我們都表明我們知道如何做到這一點。如何添加更多新產品以在這個龐大的 TAM 中佔據更高的份額。

Next is the enormous growth runway of our existing brands IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild, both on track to reach $1 billion of revenue overtime, and both are sustaining double digit growth rates today. IL MAKIAGE will cross the $500 million mark this year, which makes it one of a very short list of brands to hit this milestone.

接下來是我們現有品牌 IL MAKIAGE 和 SpoiledChild 的巨大成長跑道，這兩個品牌的收入都有望達到 10 億美元，並且目前都保持著兩位數的成長率。IL MAKIAGE 今年的銷售額將突破 5 億美元大關，這使其成為少數達到這一里程碑的品牌之一。

IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild will continue to drive growth from their existing products, from a pipeline of new products and categories, and from scaling internationally. As you know, up to this point we have been primarily focused on the US where we continue to see high growth runway, and unlike our competitors, we have 0 exposure to China's consumer slowdown.

IL MAKIAGE 和 SpoiledChild 將繼續透過現有產品、一系列新產品和類別以及國際擴張來推動成長。如您所知，到目前為止，我們主要關注美國，在那裡我們繼續看到高成長跑道，與我們的競爭對手不同，我們對中國消費者放緩的影響為零。

The next driver is new brands, with Brand 3 and Brand 4 ready to launch in the second half of next year, while continuing to add additional brands to our future pipeline. Brand 3 is a direct-to-consumer telehealth platform for consumers with skin and body issues.

下一個驅動力是新品牌，品牌 3 和品牌 4 準備在明年下半年推出，同時繼續在我們未來的產品線中添加更多品牌。Brand 3 是一個直接面向消費者的遠距醫療平台，為有皮膚和身體問題的消費者提供服務。

We have made impressive progress in building the teams, the brand identity, and the product offering, product line and a ton of tech investments including first of its kind vision technology for the brand. Our next growth driver is technology innovation, where we continue to invest significant resources, expanding our teams, improving our algorithms, our computer vision tools and their integration with our platform. There is still a lot of work to be done. New models will continue to expand revenue and margins.

我們在團隊建立、品牌形象、產品供應、產品線和大量技術投資（包括品牌首創的視覺技術）方面取得了令人矚目的進展。我們的下一個成長動力是技術創新，我們將繼續投入大量資源，擴大我們的團隊，改進我們的演算法、電腦視覺工具及其與我們平台的整合。還有很多工作要做。新車型將繼續擴大收入和利潤。

And finally, ODDITY LABS to discover new, proprietary molecules to drive product innovation and allow us to launch high efficacy, science-backed products.

最後，ODDITY LABS 發現新的專有分子來推動產品創新，並使我們能夠推出高效、有科學支援的產品。

We are continuing to grow our teams which now totals 60 scientists, with new talent across the bioengineering, computation, chemistry and delivery teams. To accommodate the expansion, we recently opened our new, lab in Kendall Square, Boston. I am fully committed to ODDITY LABS success and believe it can help us become one of the largest beauty companies in the world if we succeed there.

我們正在繼續擴大我們的團隊，目前共有 60 名科學家，其中包括生物工程、計算、化學和交付團隊的新人才。為了適應擴張，我們最近在波士頓肯德爾廣場開設了新實驗室。我完全致力於 ODDITY LABS 的成功，並相信如果我們取得成功，它可以幫助我們成為世界上最大的美容公司之一。

With all of these growth drivers we have so much optionality over the long-term, so many different ways to grow. For 2025, we will enter the year with great momentum and strong positioning based on tons of preparation the teams did, like they do every year, to ensure success.

有了所有這些成長動力，從長遠來看，我們有如此多的選擇，有如此多不同的成長方式。2025 年，我們將以強勁的勢頭和強大的定位進入新的一年，基於團隊為確保成功所做的大量準備工作，就像他們每年所做的那樣。

I am very confident in delivering on our financial objectives and commitments, which we have done for the past six quarters since becoming public, and also every single quarter beforehand.

我對實現我們的財務目標和承諾非常有信心，自上市以來我們在過去的六個季度以及之前的每個季度都做到了這一點。

With that I will turn over to Lindsay.

接下來我將轉向 Lindsay。

Thanks, Oran. Let's turn to our Q3 results which I will refer to on an adjusted basis. You can find the full reconciliation to GAAP in our press release. ODDITY delivered another record-breaking quarter across the board. We grew net revenue by 26% in the quarter to $119 million.

謝謝，奧蘭。讓我們看看第三季的業績，我將在調整後的基礎上參考它。您可以在我們的新聞稿中找到與 GAAP 的完全一致。ODDITY 的季度業績再次打破紀錄。本季我們的淨收入成長了 26%，達到 1.19 億美元。

The strength was driven by both IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild across a range of product categories. Net revenue growth was driven primarily by an increase in orders, while average order value increased 9% year over year. Average order value growth was driven both by an increase in items per order and positive mix shift to higher priced products like skin, partially offset by a mix shift to repeat sales which carry lower AOV.

這一優勢是由 IL MAKIAGE 和 SpoiledChild 在一系列產品類別中推動的。淨收入成長主要由訂單增加推動，平均訂單價值年增 9%。平均訂單價值成長的推動因素包括每筆訂單商品數量的增加以及向皮膚等高價產品的正面組合轉變，但部分被平均訂單價值較低的重複銷售組合轉變所抵消。

The 26% revenue growth we delivered this quarter beat our 22% to 24% guidance. This upside stands in contrast to the concerns we hear from investors about weakening sales trends in other beauty businesses, including both wholesalers and retailers.

本季我們實現 26% 的營收成長，超出了 22% 至 24% 的預期。這一優勢與我們從投資者那裡聽到的對其他美容行業（包括批發商和零售商）銷售趨勢疲軟的擔憂形成鮮明對比。

As Oran said, our results are a testament to the strength and resilience of our direct-to-consumer model, and how we've positioned our business to win in the most important vectors of industry growth. In fact, our business is firing on all cylinders.

正如奧蘭所說，我們的業績證明了我們直接面向消費者模式的實力和彈性，以及我們如何定位我們的業務以贏得行業成長的最重要領域。事實上，我們的業務正在全速運轉。

Let me give you some examples of how. Our latest customer cohorts are our strongest cohorts ever. Frequency of repeat revenue in our latest cohorts are the best ever. Repeat continues to increase as a percent of sales. AOV continues to increase, including first order and repeat AOVs, which are our highest ever. We are scaling both brands across a wide demographic of consumers, old and young, high income, and low income.

讓我舉一些例子來說明如何做。我們最新的客戶群是我們有史以來最強大的群體。我們最新一批的重複收入頻率是有史以來最好的。重複次數佔銷售額的百分比持續增加。AOV 持續增加，包括一階 AOV 和重複 AOV，這是我們有史以來最高的。我們正在將這兩個品牌擴展到廣泛的消費者群體，無論是老年人還是年輕人，無論是高收入還是低收入。

Revenue growth is broad based across different categories and products. All of our product vintages are growing. From the 2018 and 2019 product vintage to the 2023 and 2024 vintage. These individual data points of strength are not random and they don't exist in isolation. They are all related.

不同類別和產品的收入成長廣泛。我們所有的產品年份都在成長。從 2018 年和 2019 年產品年份到 2023 年和 2024 年年份。這些單獨的強度數據點不是隨機的，它們也不是孤立存在的。它們都是相關的。

They are the outcome of a platform that is meeting enormous consumer demand, gaining share of wallet, selling more items per order, and layering new product franchises on top of a growing core. This increases our surface area, expands the runway, and drives customer happiness, all of which support a very attractive and durable financial model.

它們是一個平台的成果，該平台滿足了巨大的消費者需求，贏得了錢包份額，每個訂單銷售更多商品，並在不斷增長的核心之上分層新產品特許經營權。這增加了我們的表面積，擴大了跑道，並提高了客戶滿意度，所有這些都支持一個非常有吸引力和持久的財務模式。

Moving down the P&L, gross margin of 69.9% compressed 35 basis points and exceeded our guidance of 68%. We expect further normalization of our gross margin in the fourth quarter towards 68%, which is a level more consistent with our long-term run rate.

從損益表來看，毛利率為 69.9%，壓縮了 35 個基點，超出了我們 68% 的指引。我們預計第四季毛利率將進一步正常化，達到 68%，這與我們的長期運行率更加一致。

As a reminder, we don't manage our business to gross margin. We manage our business to direct contribution margin, otherwise known as DC margin. We calculate DC margin as gross margin minus performance media spend.

提醒一下，我們不會根據毛利率來管理我們的業務。我們管理我們的業務以直接貢獻邊際，也稱為 DC 邊際。我們將 DC 利潤率計算為毛利率減去效果媒體支出。

Products with lower gross margin but higher repeat frequency can deliver the same DC margin as a product with a higher gross margin but lower repeat frequency. And this is a trade-off we are agnostic to. As we have said before, our gross margin in 2024 has been coming in higher than what we see as a sustainable rate based on our view of product mix.

毛利率較低但重複頻率較高的產品可以提供與毛利率較高但重複頻率較低的產品相同的 DC 利潤率。這是我們不可知的權衡。正如我們之前所說，根據我們對產品組合的看法，我們 2024 年的毛利率將高於我們所認為的可持續水準。

As a result, we do expect gross margin will compress in 2025 as it normalizes relative to a very strong result this year. We delivered adjusted EBITDA of $25 million in the quarter and adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.8% (sic - see press release, "20.9%"), above our guidance in absolute dollars and in margin percentage terms.

因此，我們預計毛利率將在 2025 年壓縮，因為相對於今年非常強勁的業績，毛利率已經正常化。我們本季的調整後 EBITDA 為 2,500 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 20.8%（原文如此 - 請參閱新聞稿，「20.9%」），高於我們以絕對美元和利潤百分比計算的指導值。

Adjusted EBITDA margin compressed by 112 basis points as we incurred planned incremental expenses in the quarter to drive future growth initiatives, including Brand 3, Brand 4, and ODDITY LABS. The timing of some of these expenses shifted out of Q3 and into Q4, and as a result we expect a bit more EBITDA margin compression in Q4 as those investments flow through.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率壓縮了 112 個基點，因為我們在本季度產生了計劃增量費用，以推動未來的成長計劃，包括品牌 3、品牌 4 和 ODDITY LABS。其中一些費用的時間從第三季度轉移到第四季度，因此，隨著這些投資的流過，我們預計第四季度的 EBITDA 利潤率將受到更多壓縮。

We delivered adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.32. Our adjusted EBITDA and EPS excludes approximately $3 million of share based compensation. We continue to deliver very strong free cash flow and free cash conversion, a clear reflection of the strength and quality of our business model.

我們的調整後攤薄每股收益為 0.32 美元。我們調整後的 EBITDA 和 EPS 不包括約 300 萬美元的股權激勵。我們繼續提供非常強勁的自由現金流和自由現金轉換，清楚地反映了我們業務模式的實力和品質。

We delivered $119 million of free cash flow year-to-date. We repurchased around 1 million shares of our stock in the third quarter for approximately $37 million, and have around $103 million remaining on our authorization.

今年迄今為止，我們交付了 1.19 億美元的自由現金流。我們在第三季以約 3,700 萬美元的價格回購了約 100 萬股股票，授權餘額約為 1.03 億美元。

We will remain opportunistic on share buybacks based on our strong cash flows, ample cash reserves, and attractive share price. We exited the quarter with $248 million of cash, equivalents, and investments on our balance sheet and zero debt.

基於我們強勁的現金流、充裕的現金儲備和有吸引力的股價，我們將繼續抓住股票回購的機會。本季結束時，我們的資產負債表上有 2.48 億美元的現金、等價物和投資，債務為零。

Turning to our outlook. We are once again raising our 2024 full year guidance based on the better than expected third quarter results and a strong start to the fourth quarter. We now expect net revenue between $642 million and $644 million, representing 26% to 27% year-over-year growth.

轉向我們的展望。基於好於預期的第三季業績和第四季的強勁開局，我們再次上調 2024 年全年指引。我們目前預計淨收入在 6.42 億美元至 6.44 億美元之間，年增 26% 至 27%。

We expect to deliver a 71.5% gross margin for the full year, and we expect to deliver adjusted EBITDA between $147 million and $149 million, which includes a step up in growth investments for ODDITY LABS and our new brands. We expect full year adjusted diluted earnings per share will be between $1.85 and $1.87.

我們預計全年毛利率將達到 71.5%，調整後 EBITDA 預計將在 1.47 億至 1.49 億美元之間，其中包括加大對 ODDITY LABS 和我們新品牌的成長投資。我們預計全年調整後攤薄每股收益將在 1.85 美元至 1.87 美元之間。

Turning to the fourth-quarter outlook. We are off to an excellent start and are pleased with the composition of our growth across both brands and categories, as well as our cohort repeat rates. We expect year over year net revenue growth in the quarter to be between 22% and 24%. You can find more details on our Q4 outlook in our press release.

轉向第四季展望。我們有了一個良好的開端，並對我們在品牌和類別上的成長組成以及我們的隊列重複率感到滿意。我們預計本季淨收入年增將在 22% 至 24% 之間。您可以在我們的新聞稿中找到有關我們第四季度前景的更多詳細資訊。

Lastly, I will reiterate the early thoughts on 2025 that we communicated last quarter. We expect to deliver net revenue growth of 20% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 20%, consistent with our long-term algorithm.

最後，我將重申我們上季傳達的 2025 年的初步想法。我們預期淨收入成長 20%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 20%，這與我們的長期演算法一致。

We plan to incur significant investments in Brand 3, Brand 4, and ODDITY LABS, and we do not expect to benefit from any material revenue contribution from these initiatives in 2025.

我們計劃對 Brand 3、Brand 4 和 ODDITY LABS 進行大量投資，我們預計 2025 年不會從這些舉措中獲得任何實質收入貢獻。

With that I will turn the call back to the operator for questions.

然後我會將電話轉回給接線生詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指令）Dara Mohsenian，摩根士丹利。

Thanks, operator. So Lindsay, A, can you give us a little more detail on that strong start in Q4, and any more info on what you're seeing in the business so far this quarter? And then also just looking ahead, can you give us an update on Brands 3 and 4, when you really expect the revenue contribution from those brands to start to ramp up and the timing of the rollout as you look towards next year, and any spending upfront ahead of that, and how you think about the spending prelaunch? Thanks.

謝謝，接線生。Lindsay，A，您能否為我們提供有關第四季度強勁開局的更多詳細信息，以及有關本季度迄今為止您在業務中所看到的情況的更多信息？然後，展望未來，您能否向我們介紹一下品牌 3 和 4 的最新情況，您是否確實希望這些品牌的收入貢獻開始增加，以及您展望明年的推出時間以及任何支出在此之前，您如何看待啟動前的支出？謝謝。

Great. Thanks, Dara. So Q4 started strong with continued good momentum from Q3. Q3 was an excellent quarter for us. Like, as I talked about, really our cohorts are performing at their best ever. As you know, Q3, Q4 are mostly repeat business for us, but we do have a lot of signals based on how we see our customers behaving and our users behaving.

偉大的。謝謝，達拉。因此，第四季開局強勁，延續了第三季的良好勢頭。第三季對我們來說是一個出色的季度。正如我所說，我們的團隊確實正處於有史以來的最佳表現。如您所知，第三季、第四季對我們來說主要是重複業務，但根據我們如何看待客戶行為和用戶行為，我們確實有很多訊號。

And the customer behavior that we saw in Q2, which was very strong, continued, and that includes repeat rates being at their best, AOV being at its highest, both first order and repeat order AOV. And that's because people are adding more items to their order. So we're increasing order size in terms of number of items.

我們在第二季度看到的客戶行為非常強勁且持續，其中包括處於最佳狀態的重複率，AOV 處於最高水平，無論是一階訂單 AOV 還是重複訂單 AOV。這是因為人們正在向訂單中添加更多商品。因此，我們正在增加訂單的商品數量。

But also we're getting a nice positive mix tailwind from skin, in particular, and just general share of the higher-priced products, which is a great signal in terms of customer demand and their willingness to spend more for the value that we deliver. We're seeing growth in all of our product vintages.

但我們也從皮膚方面獲得了良好的積極組合順風，尤其是高價產品的總體份額，這對於客戶需求以及他們願意為我們提供的價值花費更多的意願而言是一個很好的信號。我們看到所有年份的產品都在成長。

So our original 2018-2019 product lineup that we launched in the US which continues to grow even as the newer product vintages that we released this year, last year, the year before, all of those new franchises that continue to layer on.

因此，我們在美國推出的原始 2018-2019 年產品系列仍在繼續成長，即使我們今年、去年、前年發布了新的產品年份，所有這些新的特許經營權也在繼續分層。

But I guess, what I would stress is, that all of this really is according to plan. We have a lot of control over our business, as you know, and a lot of visibility and ability to predict and drive the ultimate outcome for the quarter. And so that's what we saw transpire in Q3, and that's exactly what we're seeing entering Q4 with high visibility to the strong finish that's reflected in our guidance.

但我想，我要強調的是，這一切確實都是照計畫進行的。如您所知，我們對我們的業務擁有很大的控制權，並且具有很強的可見性和能力來預測和推動本季度的最終結果。這就是我們在第三季度看到的情況，這正是我們在進入第四季度時看到的情況，我們的指導中反映出了強勁的表現。

Yes. As for Brand 3 and Brand 4, both brands are being developed and progress according to the plan. Both will be ready second half of next year. The most important part is, for both brands we continue to use IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild user base to create new segments -- user segments for those new brands. So once we launch them, we launch it for existing user base, which is very important.

是的。至於品牌3和品牌4，兩個品牌都在按計劃進行開發和進展。兩者都將於明年下半年準備就緒。最重要的是，對於這兩個品牌，我們繼續利用 IL MAKIAGE 和 SpoiledChild 用戶群來創建新的細分市場——這些新品牌的用戶細分市場。因此，一旦我們推出它們，我們就會針對現有用戶群推出它，這一點非常重要。

And as for the progress, I will just give more sense about Brand 3. We are actively building and scaling the teams. We completing -- we completed the branding process. We set up our telehealth infrastructure, including physician network and pharmacists to streamline our user experience, and support the delivery of personalized treatment. We continue to do very large-scale consumer studies extensively testing our new product and treatment.

至於進展，我只會對品牌 3 給予更多的了解。我們正在積極建立和擴大團隊規模。我們完成了—我們完成了品牌流程。我們建立了遠距醫療基礎設施，包括醫生網絡和藥劑師，以簡化我們的用戶體驗，並支援提供個人化治療。我們繼續進行大規模的消費者研究，廣泛測試我們的新產品和治療方法。

Just because it's super personalized and customized it requires a lot of work. Vision technology has made great progress, including intensity, localization, classification. We are working on this technology for more than 2 years, and we see great results, and this is before launch.

正因為它是超級個人化和客製化的，所以需要大量的工作。視覺技術取得了長足的進步，包括強度、定位、分類。我們研究這項技術已經有兩年多了，我們看到了很好的成果，而且這是在發布之前。

And lastly, generative AI models are being built to show expected progression over multiple week horizon for the treatment, which is something that we added recently, and we are very bullish about the ability to create better results and to set better expectations with our users. Brand 3, we don't share much.

最後，正在建立生成人工智慧模型，以顯示治療在多周範圍內的預期進展，這是我們最近添加的內容，我們非常看好創造更好結果並為用戶設定更好期望的能力。品牌3，我們分享不多。

We are also not sharing too much internally, to be honest. Brand 4, sorry. But everything is according to the plan, has its own team, has its own CEO already, and we are progressing and it will be a great brand.

老實說，我們內部也沒有分享太多。品牌4，對不起。但一切都按照計劃進行，擁有自己的團隊，已經有了自己的首席執行官，我們正在進步，這將是一個偉大的品牌。

Let me just add one more thing to what Oran said. We said this, but it bears repeating, because I've gotten this question before. For Brand 3 and 4, we don't expect any material contribution to our revenue for 2025, as we've talked about achieving 20% revenue. We don't need Brands 3 and 4 to achieve those targets either. As Oran said on the call, IL MAKIAGE was very strong and SpoiledChild very strong.

讓我在奧蘭所說的基礎上再補充一件事。我們說過這一點，但值得重複一遍，因為我以前曾經收到過這個問題。對於品牌 3 和 4，我們預計不會對 2025 年的收入做出任何實質貢獻，因為我們已經談到了實現 20% 的收入。我們也不需要品牌 3 和 4 來實現這些目標。正如 Oran 在電話中所說，IL MAKIAGE 非常強大，SpoiledChild 也非常強大。

And we believe IL MAKIAGE is on track to be a $1 billion business and same with SpoiledChild. So we still have tremendous amount of growth in our base. So the revenue contribution next year will be not material from any of our new initiatives. However, the cost structure will be material, which is why we're guiding to gross margin compression towards 20% next year.

我們相信 IL MAKIAGE 有望成為一項價值 10 億美元的業務，就像 SpoiledChild 一樣。因此，我們的基礎仍然有巨大的成長。因此，我們的任何新措施明年的收入貢獻都不會很大。然而，成本結構將是重大的，這就是我們指導明年毛利率壓縮至 20% 的原因。

Great. That's helpful. Thanks.

偉大的。這很有幫助。謝謝。

Andrew Boone, JMP Securities.

安德魯·布恩，JMP 證券。

Thanks so much for taking my questions. Lindsay, can you help unpack the top-line growth you gave us? Can we better understand the 9% AOV increase? And then if I think about unit growth that's implied with that in the mid-teens. How do we think about unit growth for '25 as we think about the 20% formula? And then Oran, a bigger picture question on generative AI.

非常感謝您回答我的問題。Lindsay，您能幫助我們實現營收成長嗎？我們能否更理解 9% AOV 的成長？然後，如果我考慮單位成長，這意味著十幾歲左右。當我們考慮 20% 的公式時，我們如何考慮 25 年的單位成長？然後是奧蘭，一個關於產生人工智慧的更大的問題。

We're seeing major improvements with Meta and Google being more relevant. I'm assuming that also applies to the targeting that you guys are able to do in terms of matching consumers. Can you help us better understand what that technology has accomplished for you guys and how you're using it? Thanks so much.

我們看到 Meta 和 Google 的重大改進變得更加相關。我假設這也適用於你們在匹配消費者方面能夠進行的定位。您能幫助我們更了解該技術為您帶來了什麼以及您如何使用它嗎？非常感謝。

Great. Thanks for the question. I'll start on AOV. AOV has been an ongoing tailwind for us although the primary driver of our revenue growth, both this year, each quarter and looking back has really been order driven.

偉大的。謝謝你的提問。我將從 AOV 開始。儘管今年、每季以及回顧過去我們營收成長的主要驅動力確實是訂單驅動的，但 AOV 一直是我們的持續推動力。

However, we are seeing AOV growth despite the fact that we've had this pretty big shift from being a mostly first order business to now being a majority repeat business and repeat carries a lower AOV. So we've had AOV growth despite the headwind from that shift to repeat. And the driver has been mostly people are -- we're growing order size.

然而，我們看到 AOV 成長，儘管事實上我們已經從主要是一階業務轉變為現在的大多數回頭客業務，並且回頭客的 AOV 較低。因此，儘管這種轉變帶來了阻力，但我們的 AOV 仍然有所增長。驅動因素主要是人——我們正在擴大訂單規模。

We're able to do that because we've expanded our product line, and our models are doing a better and better job every single day, matching people with the right products so that we can increase things like upsells and bundles, and we've been really effective at that. In addition, we've been able to increase AOV just based on mix.

我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們擴大了產品線，而且我們的模特兒每天都做得越來越好，為人們匹配合適的產品，這樣我們就可以增加追加銷售和捆綁銷售等內容，而且我們」我們在這方面確實非常有效。此外，我們已經能夠僅根據混合來增加 AOV。

So a lot of the new product introductions we've had, including in skin, have higher price points associated. So it's been a lot of things, and again, it all comes back to our model. We have not been big -- these are not from like straight-line price increases across products.

因此，我們推出的許多新產品，包括皮膚產品，都有較高的相關價格。所以，發生了很多事情，這一切又回到了我們的模型。我們的規模並不大——這些並不是來自產品的直線價格上漲。

We have taken those in the past, and we have that muscle, and we use them judiciously. But that has not been a meaningful driver for us at AOV. Going forward, as we look into the future, primary driver of our revenue growth will continue to be orders.

我們過去已經採取了這些措施，並且我們有足夠的力量，並且我們明智地使用它們。但這對 AOV 來說並不是一個有意義的驅動力。展望未來，我們收入成長的主要驅動力仍將是訂單。

You're right calling out Meta and Google for GenAI. And we said multiple times, like it's not only about the models, it's about the data. And what we have is so much data in our industry, and it allows us to build models that will help us do better job in personalization and customization.

你把 Meta 和 Google 稱為 GenAI 是正確的。我們多次說過，這不僅與模型有關，也與數據有關。我們擁有業界如此多的數據，它使我們能夠建立模型，幫助我們在個人化和客製化方面做得更好。

We are working a lot in that regard for Brand 3 because it's a treatment, and it's so important to set expectations and to make sure that we are doing a great job in customization, personalization. But again, early for us.

我們在品牌 3 方面做了很多工作，因為它是一種治療方法，設定期望並確保我們在客製化、個人化方面做得很好非常重要。但同樣，對我們來說還早。

We believe that it's going to help us in multiple areas, and the teams are testing. And when we have more to demonstrate and to showcase, we will.

我們相信它將在多個領域為我們提供幫助，並且團隊正在進行測試。當我們有更多的東西要展示和展示時，我們就會的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Youssef Squali, Truist Securities.

優素福‧斯誇裡 (Youssef Squali)，Truist 證券公司。

Yeah. Hi. Good morning. This is Nick Cronin on for Youssef. So as you think about the opportunity ahead in international expansion, how do you think about that, the size of that opportunity? And when do you think you'll start leaning into that?

是的。你好。早安.我是尼克·克羅寧 (Nick Cronin) 為尤瑟夫 (Youssef) 發言。因此，當您考慮國際擴張中未來的機會時，您如何看待該機會的大小？你認為你什麼時候會開始傾向於這個？

And then secondly, Oran, I think you mentioned skin and body issues for Brand 3. I'm just curious, does that imply you're considering offering GLP drugs? Or is it really more focused on the skin side of the house? Thanks.

其次，Oran，我想你提到了 Brand 3 的皮膚和身體問題。我只是好奇，這是否意味著你們正在考慮提供 GLP 藥物？或者它真的更關注房子的皮膚一側嗎？謝謝。

I will start with the second question. We don't have any plans to do now GLP, so we started with body and skin. But again, no intention for GLP at that point. What was the second question, Lindsay?

我從第二個問題開始。我們現在沒有任何計劃進行 GLP，所以我們從身體和皮膚開始。但同樣，當時沒有 GLP 的意圖。第二個問題是什麼，林賽？

Well, just to follow up. When we refer to body issues, it includes things like eczema and other body conditions, not weight loss.

嗯，只是為了跟進。當我們提到身體問題時，它包括濕疹和其他身體狀況，而不是體重減輕。

International.

國際的。

Second question was on international.

第二個問題是關於國際的。

Yeah, international. We are already very successful and high profitable in all geographies we've officially launched, which is Canada, UK, Germany, and Australia. International, it's a huge growth opportunity for us. Looking at our competitors, we think that international can be 50% of our business over time. And we totally localized experience in each geography based on what we know, we are either number one or number two in each country that we opened so far.

是的，國際。我們已經在我們正式推出的所有地區（加拿大、英國、德國和澳洲）都取得了非常成功和高利潤。國際化，這對我們來說是一個巨大的成長機會。看看我們的競爭對手，我們認為隨著時間的推移，國際業務將占我們業務的 50%。根據我們所知，我們在每個地區的經驗都完全在地化，到目前為止，我們在每個開設的國家要么是第一，要么是第二。

And what we continue to do is, we are ready to go in new markets that are fully localized, large geographies that the team already set up, test live in market, in thousands of orders to make sure unit economic and satisfaction is strong. And we are waiting. We are waiting because we don't need them yet, but it doesn't mean that we are not going to use it in 2025.

我們繼續做的是，我們準備進入完全在地化的新市場，團隊已經建立了大型地域，在市場上進行了數千個訂單的現場測試，以確保單位經濟性和滿意度很高。我們正在等待。我們正在等待，因為我們還不需要它們，但這並不意味著我們不會在 2025 年使用它。

We have always slow played the international market expansion to when needed revenue-wise and to make sure that we are very successful in those countries that we already opened. So again, international is a huge opportunity for us.

我們總是在需要收入時緩慢地進行國際市場擴張，並確保我們在已經開放的國家取得非常成功。因此，國際化對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。

I believe that over time, it will be more than 50% of the business. But for now, we are still focused primarily on the US. And thank God, we don't have exposure to the Chinese consumer, which is tough now.

相信隨著時間的推移，會佔到50%以上的業務。但目前，我們仍然主要關注美國。感謝上帝，我們沒有接觸到中國消費者，而這現在很困難。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Thank you. There are no --

謝謝。沒有--

Yeah. Please go ahead.

是的。請繼續。

Thank you. So there are no further questions at this time. That concludes our Q&A session. I'd like to turn the conference over to Oran Holtzman, Co-Founder and CEO. Please go ahead.

謝謝。所以目前沒有其他問題。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交給聯合創始人兼首席執行官奧蘭·霍爾茨曼 (Oran Holtzman)。請繼續。

Thank you, guys, for joining and see you next quarter with another great quarter. Bye, guys.

謝謝你們的加入，下個季度再見，我們將迎來另一個偉大的季度。再見，夥計們。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。