Oil-Dri Corporation of America (ODC) 2009 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the fourth-quarter 2009 Oil-Dri Corporation America (sic) earnings conference call. My name is Keesha, and I will be your operator for today.

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will conduct a question-and-answer session towards the end of this conference. (Operator Instructions).

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Dan Jaffee, President and CEO. Please proceed.

Thank you, Keesha. Welcome, everyone, to our fourth-quarter and fiscal 2009 year-end teleconference. Joining me, as usual, is Andy Peterson, our CFO, and Charlie Brissman, our VP and General Counsel, and Ronda Williams, who handles all our investor relations as well as our Safe Harbor provisions.

That's right, so I will take it from there. Again, welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us. On today's call, comments may contain forward-looking statements regarding the Company's performance in future periods. Actual results in those periods may materially differ.

In our press release and our SEC filings, we highlight a number of important risk factors, trends and uncertainties that may affect our future performance. We urge you to review and consider those factors in evaluating the Company's comments and in evaluating any investment in Oil-Dri stock. Thanks.

Thank you, Ronda. And before I turn it over to Andy for some details, just high level, record sales, record earnings. And given the fact that that occurred in an economic environment that some say was the toughest since the Depression, very, very impressive performance turned in by the team, and again validating the value of the sorbent mineral deposits that we control and process and market.

So it is an especially good time to be Oil-Dri. We are appreciative and proud of that. And happy to turn it over to Andy, and he can give you a lot more of the details.

We had sales of $55.9 million in the quarter, down 6% compared with last year's $59.5 million. We achieved record sales in fiscal 2009 of $236.3 million, up 2% from the prior year. We had a gross profit margin in the quarter of 21.2%, up from last year's 18.9%. Higher average selling prices and lower freight costs more than offset reduced volume.

Operating expenses in the quarter were 14.5% of sales, which was up compared with 13.4% in last year's fourth quarter. The higher percentage was primarily due to lower sales.

Our effective tax rate in the quarter was 30% of pretax income, up from 22% last year. For the full year, the tax rate was 28% compared with last year's 26%.

Net income in the quarter was 4.6% of sales, up from 4.1% last year. We achieved record net income in fiscal 2009 of $9.6 million, up 6% from the prior year.

EPS in the quarter was 35% -- $0.35, up 3% compared to $0.34 last year. We achieved record EPS in fiscal 2009 of $1.32, up 6% from the prior year. Cash provided from operations in fiscal 2009 was $15.8 million, up $4.5 million from last year. Capital expenditures of $15.3 million were up $8 million compared with last year. The increase in capital expenditures was primarily due to the construction of a new plant designed to manufacture engineered granules.

Debt payments of $5.6 million were up $1.5 million compared with last year. Purchases of treasury stock were up $600,000 compared with last year. Dividends paid of $3.7 million were up $300,000, or 9%, compared with last year.

Cash and investments at July 31, 2009 was $19.8 million, down $7.9 million compared to last year. At the end of fiscal 2009, our debt, net of cash and investments, was only $1.7 million compared to $89.6 million in stockholders' equity. Thank you.

Great. Andy, thank you. And very positive financial results. A lot of qualitatively going on positively as well.

Would like to respond, as always, to your questions, rather than try and guess what is on your minds and your radar screen. So Keesha, I would like to open it up to Q&A, but, as always, I would like to encourage everyone to prioritize your questions. You do know we hold the conference call to 30 minutes. And so ask your most important questions first, and, if you would, in respect to other people's time, ask one and then get to the end of the queue to allow everyone to at least get a question in during the teleconference.

(Operator Instructions) [Ethan Star.]

Good morning, and nice year. How did Calibrin do in the fourth quarter? And also, when do you expect to have revenue from Verge?

Okay. First of all, how did Calibrin do? Let me continue with the trend that we started reporting, just to remind everyone where we're at. So we launched it in the first quarter of last year, so August, September, October was the first real launch period, and we sold $88,000 worth of Calibrin products. We billed $204,000 in the second quarter, $325,000 in the third quarter and sold $452,000 in the fourth quarter. So you can see the snowball is rolling and that is very positive.

Regarding Verge, we have already invoiced some customers of some initial product that they are putting into testing. We are still proving out the process. As anything, you bring it up, you are going to have kinks in a new process. And so I wouldn't call it fully operational and functional, but we are already shipping and billing on the Verge front.

Okay. Thanks.

Robert Smith, Center for Performance.

Good morning. Congratulations on a good year in a difficult environment.

So you have spoken about the loss of sales at Wal-Mart and the hopeful pickup elsewhere. Could you give me an idea of -- I guess you said it would -- it is very uncertain how this might play out in your mind as well. But what are the sort of metrics involved here about the pickups elsewhere, so to speak?

Sure. It's a very fair question. You know we don't give forward guidance, but let me just sort of qualitatively put some parentheses around.

As I said in the news release, look, only time will tell exactly how this is going to play out. Long-term, I believe this is all going to be very positive. I think it is going to bring us closer to Wal-Mart. I don't think it is going to push us farther away from them. I think sometimes you don't know what you have until it is gone. So I think if at the end of this period that they find that having Cat's Pride wasn't beneficial to their category, then frankly, they shouldn't have been ever carrying it.

But they were selling over 8 million units a year of Cat's Pride Scoopable. And so the odds that that many shoppers were finding it that useful, and then the day after they decide to change their planogram, they no longer want that item, even though it is unique. It is the only certified safe-to-flush item. It is the only item that, due to its light density Mother Nature blessed us with, you get 40% more scoops per pound, which is a huge value. It may not play a lot at a Neiman Marcus, but at a Wal-Mart, we think that is exactly why it was one of the top-selling single SKUs they had.

So when they went through this line review, they didn't do it by SKU; they did it by brand presence in total. And if that proves out to be beneficial for them, then they are going to keep doing it. If instead there are specific categories where it proves out not to be so beneficial, they have sent us a lot of communication signals that they are going to revisit it, and they are going to look at what's best for Wal-Mart, as was always the case.

So we feel very positive and confident that this is only going to strengthen our relationship with them over time. However, are they going to pull a 180 instantly? No. They are a very strategic, rational, thinking organization. So they didn't go into this plan overnight, and they are not going to get out of it overnight.

So who knows how long it could take for the data to play out in a way where they say, you know what, Project Impact may be good overall, but it isn't helping us for pet or for litter. Who knows? So -- I'm sorry, Bob.

You said that you've gotten support from other retailers. Could you give me some color on that?

Yes. I mean, it has been great. Literally, you can pick -- go around the markets and you can think who the major retailers are in each market. You are down in Florida, it's Publix; you're in Texas, it's H-E-B; you're up in New England, it's Stop & Shop; you're in the Midwest, it's Kroger. You know, you're out West, again, Kroger, Safeway, Albertson's.

All of them see this not just in cat litter, but in every category, as an opportunity to finally try and turn things around. They've been losing shoppers for the last 20 years to Wal-Mart, because Wal-Mart gave better pricing and equal to or better variety. Now Wal-Mart is saying we're going to compete not on variety; we are actually going to reduce the variety; but we will obviously try and keep our price point.

So I think these grocery accounts, rightly so, have said, you know what? We can then be the guys who provide variety. We now have an opening. There is a chink in the armor.

So with respect to us specifically, we are having a huge quarter with our non-Bentonville cat litter accounts, because they are piling it high. We are getting displays. We are getting end caps. We are getting everything, because they -- and we just ran an FSI last Sunday, a freestanding insert, where we partner up with the American Breast Cancer Awareness month, and that is running right now. We were just recently on TV on a thing called the Balancing Act. If you didn't see it, it is out there on YouTube. Just Google Cat's Pride Balancing Act, and you will get to watch a three-minute spot of that. And so we are very encouraged.

Okay. So from what you see now, is there -- I mean, what is the feel as far as recapture goes, if all this is happening?

My feeling is, look, are we going to be up in fiscal '10, in a year when we lose the biggest piece of the biggest part of our retail business? Probably not. I mean, again, we are not giving guidance, but I'm just trying to manage expectations I think I've put out there and written --.

Net-net, time will tell. But in the short term, just this fiscal year, we will probably be down. Are we going to be unprofitable? No. So we will be profitable. We will be less profitable than we were this past year, which was a record year in our 70-year history. So, you know.

That's fair. I'll get back in the queue.

Okay, thanks.

Brad Evans, Heartland.

Yes. Good morning, everybody. Dan, can you just give us your volumes for the full year?

For the past year?

Yes, tonnage for the full year.

Sure. We shipped and billed 967,000 tons.

Just a second question then. Could you -- would you be willing to give us a sense as to what type of savings you might realize from lower natural gas prices, if we were to -- if you just give us your -- maybe taking your view of volumes and recognizing, obviously, if volumes are down next to your lower natural gas purchases, but clearly the offset being lower prices for the commodity, can you just give us your sense as to the savings opportunity there?

Andy, why don't you field that vis-a-vis the forward purchase contracts and the delta?

I guess if you look at our 10-K, we say that we estimate the weighted average cost of natural gas contracts in fiscal 2010 to be approximately 36% lower than the contracts for fiscal 2009. And of course, the caveat is that we are currently -- we bought for 40% of our kiln fuel needs in fiscal 2010. So you can kind of work through the math.

But I guess the big question is what is going to happen with natural gas over the balance of the year for what we have not hedged.

Okay. Thank you.

I think that helps you sort of get your arms around the magnitude of the opportunity.

Ethan Star.

Which is going to cost Oil-Dri more profit, the lost sales of Cat's Pride to Wal-Mart or the effective deleveraging due to the lower volumes of clay being processed?

Wal-Mart.

Okay. Thanks. Also, how much lower will CapEx be this year? The 10-K just said lower. It didn't say how much lower.

We are anticipating about $12 million in CapEx this year.

Okay. Thank you. I'll go back in the queue.

Robert Smith, Center of Performance (sic).

Okay, so they kill that name all right.

Calibrin, give me some idea of the flavor out there as to -- you've given the numbers so -- yes, tell me what you can about the reception of this. And what has to happen for, I guess, the incremental figures to begin growing even greater, I mean. So it looks like you're gaining $100,000 or so per quarter.

Yes, but I wouldn't look at it that way. That is one that if you're doing $5 million in business, gaining $100,000 a quarter isn't that impressive.

I know.

When your first quarter was $88,000. So, I mean, it was very impressive. So I would look at it more as a percentage and see how is it rolling. And clearly, we were up 100% from quarter one to quarter two. We were up 60% up to three; we were up another 40% up to four. So the question is where is that going to level out.

Our expectations certainly are more than it's going to go up $100,000 a quarter on infinitum. I mean, as the snowball rolls, yes, your percentage may come down, but the $100,000 will be exceeded.

So all I can give you is our initial reaction. Our initial reaction is very positive. The market has received it very well. If you think about it, we launched this product, which is a high-end, high-performance product, in a very tough economy, at the same time when there was something called swine flu, which you would think wouldn't impact a product like Calibrin-Z, which is particularly targeted for zearalenone in swine. You're like, well, but swine flu, how does that impact it?

Well, when the whole country of Egypt goes out and slaughters their entire swine population, you can see that people took hysterical reactions to the whole concept of swine flu.

So we feel very positive. For us to have eclipsed $1 million in sales in the first year of launch at what we have already communicated at better than average margins, we feel very positive. The team is doing a great job, getting a lot of positive support from our distributor network throughout the globe. I personally was out in Asia making calls, and it's very impressive how well this product is being received.

And so how high is up? Nobody knows. But as you know, because you've followed the pluses and minuses, we'd never sold this much of BrickAde or something like that, and we were very clear with that communication. This one in the first 12 months is looking like a winner.

You think you have a shot to get to $3 million for the year?

For fiscal '10?

Yes.

I don't know -- tripling. I would say that it depends on a lot of things. We are still hoping to get registered in China; we're not. That has taken longer. And it is not just targeted at us. They have gotten a lot more disciplined with the products that they register in general, so their process has gotten lengthier and more cumbersome.

So it's not a bad number. I would say that is a solid A leaning on an A+ (multiple speakers).

Okay, all right.

We won't be disappointed if we don't. Put it that way.

Jim Schwartz, Harvey Partners.

So basically, we have $35 million of sales to make up -- that delta -- if you think Wal-Mart will be roughly 10% or more and it was 26% this year. So the question I have is the other opportunities out there, the retailers who are taking advantage of this, how do you size up the non-Wal-Mart opportunity from just like a total available market basis? Not that we are going to make up that $35 million this year, but just a bigger opportunity than you've probably ever imagined. Because it sounds -- I mean, just in the commentary, you sound a little more optimistic, I guess, than you did when this whole thing happened, which is a good thing.

Yes. First of all, time heals all wounds. So you talk to me in another few months, I'll probably feel even better. But given that, we have had more data points. I mean, we've had more communication with Wal-Mart. We've had more communication with our other trade partners.

And are we going to make up that full $35 million in fiscal '10? No. So for sure, sales are going to be down in fiscal '10, barring an acquisition. I don't feel, again using our Safe Harbor, but every expectation is sales are going to be down. But as Bob and Ethan sort of danced around, there are cost drivers that are working to our benefit. And we do have these opportunities with incremental retail customers.

So I think the bigger question going forward is what kind of feedback are we getting from Bentonville? Are we going to get back in there or aren't we? And if we do, how long is it going to take and what is the scope of that? They could say, look, we'll put you in an extra 500 stores. Okay? Well, they basically cut us out of 3000 and left us in 300 to 400.

So then you could do the math and say, okay, well they picked up 16% of it, but they are still out of the majority of it. So that is -- time will tell, but I am hoping that we pick up more than that and get a strong -- for the next planogram. They may do it before that, but really, they tend to do these things on an annual set basis. So all of us should sort of be moderating our expectations and shooting towards the next planogram.

And what is the Verge opportunity, like if you had to -- just the long-term opportunity there?

Honestly, it is limited by our imagination. We are getting so much interest from the field in areas that we never even sort of thought of. And then as we start to dream in other areas, you see that this engineered granule can do all sorts of things.

So who knows. Really, it is not that it's limitless, in the sense it is going to be billions and billions of dollars. But in our little small corner of the world, where we do $200 million in sales, it could be a significant product line for us, both in revenue and profit.

Okay, great. Thanks, Dan.

Ethan Star.

Yes. I see construction in progress on the balance sheet went up quite a bit to $8.22 million at the end of the year. And I am wondering if that is related to the Verge plant or something else.

Yes, that is the Verge plant.

Okay, so it is not quite finished yet?

Correct.

We are still proving out the process.

Okay. And also, what percentage of ConditionAde users have switched to Calibrin, roughly?

I think Ronda has got our answer here.

Yes, that would be 78%.

Wow. In that case, I'm surprised sales aren't higher.

Brad Evans, Heartland.

Dan, I know you don't give guidance, but just from what you can see today, would you be disappointed if volumes were not up in the second half of 2010 versus the second half of 2009?

Well, but the fact is we hadn't lost Wal-Mart in the second half of 2009. So I would almost say I would be surprised if volumes were up.

Okay. That's helpful. And in light of the lost sales, have you -- any actions you've taken on the cost side that are noteworthy in terms of trying to get the cost structure down, in light of lower revenues going forward?

We took an interesting approach. I've had the chance in the last 14 days -- and we will finish it off this afternoon -- but to meet with probably 400 of our employees, so over half of our employees, I mean, and the esprit de corps has never been higher. We -- no one is taking a salary increase in fiscal 2010. So the entire Company, from me all the way through. And yet the team spirit is very positive, because I think people recognize that by doing that, we didn't have to have a mass layoff, and we haven't had any layoffs. Nobody has lost their job.

Obviously, in our industry, we have turnover. And so if there are positions that don't need to be refilled, they won't be. But no employee that wanted full-time employment the day before the announcement lost their job the day after. And so that was received very well.

But, like I said, at the same time, we're mindful of the hit that we are taking in the short run. We all were -- I hate to -- it sounds crazy -- but relatively happy to give up a merit increase in exchange for keeping 30 to 40 of our teammates on the team. So that's probably the most specific thing we did.

So what I just heard is no cost-cutting activities other than just freezing salaries, is that correct? And then normal attrition where you might not fill an open position here or there.

What do you consider cost-cutting? Obviously, our procurement team is functioning very well, and so the cost of external inputs are dropping. But that is a lot to do with the environment. So not just freight and not just our fuel, but our packaging and things like that are all going down. But in an inflationary environment, they would be going up. I mean, that was not in reaction to Wal-Mart; that was just good business.

So if -- rough math -- if the loss of Wal-Mart is a few million dollars to the operating line, plus or minus, you don't think there are costs within the business that could be taken out to help offset that lost contribution margin from Wal-Mart?

Well, give me an example. That's what I'm struggling with.

Well, I mean, reducing your headcount would be, again, a starting point.

Fine. I already addressed that, no. Obviously -- hey, if we were losing money and it was looking long-term like that wasn't going to change, then of course. But to hurt the long-term prospects of the business to react to a short-term change, that doesn't sound like a good business decision.

But it might be permanent.

Then we will address that when it comes to it, wouldn't we?

Okay, I appreciate -- that's good clarification. I appreciate it.

And just last question in terms of -- as reflected in terms of dollars per ton, was the Wal-Mart business more valuable or less valuable versus the Company average?

That's a good question. I -- more valuable.

Thank you very much.

Robert Smith, Center for Performance.

So can you outline when Verge is proven out, so to speak, and the plant is up and operating, what are the first steps for sales?

I don't think we are disclosing that, just because it will invite competition. But it is targeted at various key performance metrics -- dust-free, uniformity, the ability to either disintegrate -- slowly disintegrate, or not disintegrate at all, depending on the customer's preference. And those attributes are very important to numerous applications that we already compete in and that we then hope to compete in.

So you are already working with product developers -- I mean -- ?

Absolutely. And have been, yes, for a long time.

What is the total capacity of the plant?

I think we disclosed that, didn't we? I just don't want to trip over Reg FD or anything (multiple speakers). I think we did in the news release or something.

Yes, and if --

You know, it depends on the size granule you make. If you make the biggest stuff, you could get -- probably push it up to 15,000 tons a year. If you make the smaller stuff, you're only going to get about 10,000 tons a year. So depending on a blend, somewhere in between 10,000 and 15,000 tons a year.

And it's modular, so that we can --

Ramp it up.

-- easily ramp it up. We've got the drying capacity to do more than that. It's the screening and the extruding and so forth like that that would have to be modularly increased. So incrementally, it is not an extra $8 million to $10 million each time. It is something less.

And how much more valuable is this per ton than your other industrial products?

Well, obviously, it depends on the application, but even at the entry-level applications, it is more valuable. We will leave it at that. But there are some applications that we are working with customers that could be extremely valuable, like almost unique-type valuable, and that would be great.

Hey, listen. We are up at 10:30 and they are all waving at me, so I am going to -- Keesha, I think we're going to close the phone lines, and let me just wrap up by again thanking all of our investors. And looking forward to delivering the first quarter of digesting the new reality, which is the lower Cat's Pride branded business at Wal-Mart, but doing everything we can to both offset that with other retail customers and then get our B2B opportunities continuing to get off the ground.

So still very, very bullish on the long-term prospects of creating value from sorbent minerals, and we appreciate your support. Thanks very much, everybody.

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day, everyone.