Realty Income 召開電話會議,討論其強勁的第四季度和 2023 年全年業績,強調了創紀錄的房地產投資額以及與領先公司的合作等里程碑。他們提供了 2024 年的指導,包括每股 AFFO 範圍和 20 億美元的收購。該公司在第四季度籌集了大量資金,預計今年剩餘時間不需要進入公開股票市場。
他們討論了他們的成長機會、開發資金、市場環境以及與客戶的持續對話。 Spirit 投資組合的整合進展順利,重點是資產和資本回收。該公司計劃多元化進入不同的資產類型和國際市場,以促進內部成長。他們正在探索信用借貸平台的機會,並預計 2024 年所得稅將大幅增加。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the Realty Income Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note today's event is being recorded.
美好的一天,歡迎參加房地產收入 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意今天的活動正在錄製中。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Bakke, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. Please go ahead, sir.
現在我想將會議交給企業財務資深副總裁 Steve Bakke。請繼續,先生。
Steve Bakke
Steve Bakke
Thank you all for joining us today for Realty Income's Fourth Quarter Operating Results Conference Call. Discussing our results will be Sumit Roy, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jonathan Pong, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.
感謝大家今天參加 Realty Income 第四季經營業績電話會議。總裁兼執行長 Sumit Roy 將討論我們的結果;財務長兼財務長 Jonathan Pong。
During this conference call, we will make statements that may be considered forward-looking statements under federal securities law. The company's actual future results may differ significantly from the matters discussed in any forward-looking statements. We will disclose in greater detail the factors that may cause such differences in the company's Form 10-K. We will be observing a 2-question limit during the Q&A portion of the call in order to give everyone the opportunity to participate. If you would like to ask additional questions, you may reenter the queue.
在本次電話會議期間,我們將發表根據聯邦證券法可能被視為前瞻性聲明的聲明。本公司未來的實際績效可能與任何前瞻性陳述中討論的事項有顯著差異。我們將在公司的 10-K 表格中更詳細地揭露可能導致此類差異的因素。在電話問答部分,我們將遵守 2 個問題的限制,以便讓每個人都有機會參與。如果您想提出其他問題,可以重新進入佇列。
I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Sumit Roy.
我現在將把電話轉給我們的執行長 Sumit Roy。
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Thank you, Steve. Welcome, everyone. Our fourth quarter and 2023 full year results demonstrate the unique platform value that Realty Income has built which differentiates us as a real estate partner to the world's leading companies.
謝謝你,史蒂夫。歡迎大家。我們的第四季度和 2023 年全年業績展示了 Realty Income 構建的獨特平台價值,這使我們作為全球領先公司的房地產合作夥伴脫穎而出。
During the year, we accomplished several milestones, which illustrate the benefits bestowed to us by our size, scale and relationships. First, we set an annual high in property level investment volume, closing on over $9.5 billion in high-quality diversified investments across 8 different countries and through 271 discrete transactions at a weighted average cash yield of 7.1%.
在這一年裡,我們實現了幾個里程碑,這說明了我們的規模、規模和關係為我們帶來的好處。首先,我們創下了房地產投資額年度新高,透過 271 筆離散交易,在 8 個不同國家完成了超過 95 億美元的高品質多元化投資,加權平均現金收益率為 7.1%。
The year was punctuated with a particularly active fourth quarter as we closed on $2.7 billion of investments at a weighted average cash yield of 7.6%. Our fourth quarter activity included a $527 million sale-leaseback transaction with Decathlon, one of the world's leading investment grade rated sporting goods retailers and included properties located in Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Portugal.
今年第四季特別活躍,我們完成了 27 億美元的投資,加權平均現金收益率為 7.6%。我們第四季的活動包括與迪卡儂(世界領先的投資級體育用品零售商之一)進行的價值 5.27 億美元的售後回租交易,交易涉及位於德國、法國、西班牙、義大利和葡萄牙的物業。
Despite a volatile capital markets environment, we achieved an investment spread of approximately 115 basis points in the fourth quarter and approximately 120 basis points in 2023. We were able to achieve these spreads without sacrificing our focus on the quality of real estate or security of cash flow, which is a testament to our experienced team and the merits that sophisticated sellers see in transacting with our platform.
儘管資本市場環境動盪,我們在第四季度實現了約115 個基點的投資利差,並在2023 年實現了約120 個基點。我們能夠在不犧牲對房地產品質或現金安全的關注的情況下實現這些利差流量,證明了我們經驗豐富的團隊以及經驗豐富的賣家在我們平台進行交易時看到的優點。
Second, during the year, we established a presence in the data center sector through a build-to-suit development joint venture with Digital Realty. And we incubated new relationships with blue chip partners, such as Blackstone and the EG Group through large-scale investments, including the $950 million investment for a 21.9% stake in the Bellagio and the $1.5 billion sale-leaseback involving primarily Cumberland Farm convenience stores.
其次,在這一年中,我們透過與 Digital Realty 成立了客製化開發合資企業,在資料中心領域建立了業務。我們也透過大規模投資與 Blackstone 和 EG Group 等藍籌合作夥伴建立了新的關係,其中包括投資 9.5 億美元購買 Bellagio 21.9% 的股份,以及主要涉及 Cumberland Farm 便利商店的 15 億美元售後回租。
Third, and in addition to the achievements noted above, we also announced the $9.3 billion merger with Spirit Realty Capital in an all-stock transaction in October, which closed subsequent to year-end on January 23. These accomplishments contributed to our 2023 AFFO per share of $4 representing an approximately 7% total operational return for the year. And importantly, together with the Spirit merger, set us up to deliver a compelling earnings growth backdrop in 2024.
第三,除了上述成就外,我們還在10 月宣布以93 億美元的價格與Spirit Realty Capital 進行全股票交易合併,該交易於1 月23 日年底結束。這些成就為我們2023 年AFFO 做出了貢獻份額為 4 美元,約佔當年總營運回報的 7%。重要的是,加上 Spirit 合併,我們將在 2024 年實現令人矚目的獲利成長背景。
We believe that the close of the Spirit merger last month, along with meaningful debt and equity capital raising activity completed at attractive prices in December and January that Jonathan will describe in more detail, leave us well positioned to deliver robust growth in 2024. We here in initiated an AFFO per share guidance range of $4.13 to $4.21 per share for 2024, which represents an annual growth rate of 4.3% at the midpoint.
我們相信,上個月完成的Spirit 合併,以及12 月和1 月以有吸引力的價格完成的有意義的債務和股權融資活動(喬納森將更詳細地描述),使我們能夠在2024 年實現強勁增長。 in 提出了 2024 年 AFFO 每股指導範圍為每股 4.13 美元至 4.21 美元,這意味著年增長率中點為 4.3%。
We believe we can achieve this growth rate without the selling of additional public equity, inclusive of our dividend, this positions us to deliver a total operational return of more than 10% at the midpoint of the guidance range based on the trading price of our common stock as of February 20, 2024. In addition to the $9.3 billion Spirit merger, we're also providing 2024 acquisitions guidance of approximately $2 billion, which is expected to be fully funded via a combination of our portfolio's internally generated cash flow, now exceeding $800 million after dividend payments on an annualized basis as well as approximately $605 million of unsettled ATM proceeds and our $3.7 billion of cash and unutilized availability on our revolving credit facility as of year-end.
我們相信,我們可以在不出售額外公共股權(包括我們的股息)的情況下實現這一增長率,這使我們能夠在基於我們普通股交易價格的指導範圍中點提供超過 10% 的總營運回報截至2024 年2 月20 日的股票。除了93 億美元的Spirit 合併外,我們還提供了2024 年約20 億美元的收購指導,預計將透過我們投資組合內部產生的現金流來全額資助,目前已超過截至年底,每年支付股息後的 8 億美元,以及約 6.05 億美元的未結算 ATM 收益以及 37 億美元的現金和循環信貸額度中未使用的可用資金。
While we continue to source and review high-quality investment opportunities, we remain highly selective deploying capital only into attractive risk-adjusted return opportunities that meets both our near-term and long-term investment spread requirements. Of our $2 billion initial investment volume forecast, approximately half is expected to come in the form of development financing, the vast majority of which is already identified.
在我們繼續尋找和審查高品質投資機會的同時,我們仍然高度選擇性地將資本僅部署到有吸引力的風險調整回報機會,以滿足我們的近期和長期投資利差要求。在我們 20 億美元的初始投資金額預測中,大約一半預計將以發展融資的形式提供,其中絕大多數已經確定。
To reiterate, our favorable return profile in 2024 carries very little execution risk from an investment standpoint, allowing us the flexibility to remain patient disciplined and opportunistic from a capital deployment standpoint. That said, as we demonstrated during the height of the pandemic, our platform affords us the opportunity to pivot quickly back into growth mode should market conditions change.
重申一下,從投資的角度來看,我們在 2024 年的良好回報率幾乎沒有執行風險,這使我們能夠從資本部署的角度靈活地保持耐心、紀律和機會主義。也就是說,正如我們在疫情最嚴重時期所證明的那樣,如果市場條件發生變化,我們的平台為我們提供了快速恢復成長模式的機會。
While we intend to remain disciplined in our investments to ensure appropriate risk-adjusted returns for our investors, we continue to highlight why we are best positioned to capitalize on compelling opportunities over the long-term.
雖然我們打算保持投資紀律,以確保為投資者提供適當的風險調整回報,但我們仍繼續強調為什麼我們最有能力在長期內利用引人注目的機會。
First, the opportunity to consolidate the fragmented net lease real estate market is vast. We estimate a $14 trillion total addressable market in the U.S. and Europe across traditional net lease and emerging verticals like data centers and gaming. Second, we have firmly demonstrated our capabilities deploying capital, having invested $9 billion or more including public M&A in each of the last 3 years since exiting the pandemic year of 2020.
首先,整合分散的淨租賃房地產市場的機會巨大。我們估計美國和歐洲的傳統淨租賃和資料中心和遊戲等新興垂直市場的潛在市場總額為 14 兆美元。其次,我們堅定地展示了我們的資本配置能力,自2020年疫情結束以來,我們在過去三年中每年都投資了90億美元或更多,其中包括公開併購。
Over this time, we have generated annualized AFFO per share growth of approximately 6%, and we have provided a total operational return to stockholders of approximately 10% per year. Looking to 2024 and beyond, we are on track to achieve similar capital deployment and AFFO per share growth objectives this year. And we are particularly energized by the prospect to participate meaningfully in verticals like data centers and gaming, where we are seeing opportunities to earn healthy initial yields with attractive contractual rent escalators.
在此期間,我們每股 AFFO 的年增長率約為 6%,每年為股東提供的總營運回報約為 10%。展望 2024 年及以後,我們預計今年將實現類似的資本部署和 AFFO 每股成長目標。我們對有意義地參與資料中心和遊戲等垂直行業的前景感到特別興奮,我們看到了透過有吸引力的合約租金自動扶梯賺取健康初始收益的機會。
Third, the Spirit merger deepens our ability to access capital markets through increased trading volume in our publicly listed stock, which has averaged more than $400 million of daily trading volume since the Spirit transaction was announced. This places us in the top 150 of S&P 500 companies and is more than 7x the net lease peer average over the same timeframe, leaving us even better situated to fund our business in a highly efficient and nondisruptive manner through our ATM equity program.
第三,Spirit 合併透過增加我們公開上市股票的交易量,加深了我們進入資本市場的能力,自 Spirit 交易宣布以來,該股票的日均交易量已超過 4 億美元。這使我們躋身標準普爾 500 強公司前 150 名,並且是同期淨租賃同行平均水平的 7 倍以上,使我們能夠更好地透過 ATM 股權計劃以高效、無中斷的方式為我們的業務提供資金。
Fourth, our real estate portfolio is becoming increasingly diversified over time and consists of properties leased to relationship clients representing some of the world's leading companies in their respective industries. Diversified exposure to these clients reinforces the stability of our platform and accordingly, our growing monthly dividend payments.
第四,隨著時間的推移,我們的房地產投資組合變得越來越多元化,其中包括租賃給關係客戶的房產,這些客戶代表各自行業中的一些世界領先公司。對這些客戶的多元化投資增強了我們平台的穩定性,相應地,我們的每月股息支付也不斷成長。
Finally, the power of our platform is a crucial differentiator as we leverage our expertise across ownership of over 15,400 properties globally, inclusive of the Spirit portfolio. Our experience managing over 5,900 lease outcomes since 1996 provides learnings that feed into analytic AI tools that provide actionable insights enabling us to more accurately identify acquisition opportunities and to maximize the value of our existing holdings.
最後,我們平台的力量是一個關鍵的差異化因素,因為我們利用我們在全球擁有超過 15,400 處房產(包括 Spirit 投資組合)的專業知識。自1996 年以來,我們管理超過5,900 項租賃結果的經驗為人工智慧分析工具提供了豐富的經驗,這些工具提供了可行的見解,使我們能夠更準確地識別收購機會,並最大限度地提高我們現有資產的價值。
Continuing with our key operational results from the fourth quarter, investment volume of approximately $2.7 billion was allocated to high-quality investments at a weighted average cash yield of approximately 7.6%. We completed $1.1 billion of total investment volume internationally at a weighted average cash yield of 7.8%. Investments were made across 119 distinct transactions including 29 sale-leaseback transactions equating to $884 million of volume.
繼續我們第四季的主要營運業績,約 27 億美元的投資金額被分配給高品質投資,加權平均現金收益率約為 7.6%。我們在國際上完成了 11 億美元的總投資額,加權平均現金收益率為 7.8%。投資涉及 119 項不同交易,其中包括 29 項售後回租交易,交易額達 8.84 億美元。
Our full year investment activity was $9.5 billion, of which 35% was derived internationally, serving as a testament to the value of our investment platforms and global footprint. Included in fourth quarter volume was a loan we made to assets stores in the U.K. at a 10.9% yield. The loan is backed by ownership interests in properties containing grocery stores and supermarkets and was extended as part of a sale-leaseback transaction with Asda.
我們全年的投資活動為 95 億美元,其中 35% 來自國際,證明了我們投資平台的價值和全球足跡。第四季的交易量包括我們向英國資產商店提供的貸款,收益率為 10.9%。該貸款由雜貨店和超市等物業的所有權權益提供支持,並作為與阿斯達售後回租交易的一部分進行延期。
In addition, fourth quarter volume and included our previously announced $650 million of preferred equity investment in the Bellagio JV with Blackstone, which earns an 8.1% yield. Similar to the loan investment in Asda that Bellagio preferred equity investment was spared with investment in high-quality real estate. For both investments, our ability to offer a broadened suite of capital solutions to clients granted us access to high-quality net lease real estate investments at superior risk-adjusted returns that we could have otherwise achieved. These transactions serve as templates for future serve sale-leaseback transactions.
此外,第四季的交易量還包括我們先前宣布的與 Blackstone 合作的 Bellagio 合資企業的 6.5 億美元優先股投資,該投資的收益率為 8.1%。與阿斯達的貸款投資類似,貝拉吉歐優先股權投資也免於投資優質房地產。對於這兩項投資,我們有能力為客戶提供更廣泛的資本解決方案,使我們能夠獲得高品質的淨租賃房地產投資,並獲得原本可以實現的卓越的風險調整回報。這些交易可作為未來售後回租交易的範本。
Also in the fourth quarter, we made our initial investment in a data center development JV with Digital Realty. The initial $200 million investment represents an 80% equity investment in the venture and is expected to generate a 6.9% initial cash yield, 2% annual rent escalators and a long-term triple net lease with an S&P 100 investment-grade client upon completion.
同樣在第四季度,我們與 Digital Realty 共同投資了一家資料中心開發合資企業。最初的2 億美元投資佔該合資企業80% 的股權投資,預計完成後將產生6.9% 的初始現金收益率、2% 的年租金自動扶梯以及與標準普爾100 指數投資級客戶的長期三重淨租賃。
Turning to portfolio operations. Same-store rent grew 2.6% in the fourth quarter and 1.9% for the year, benefiting in part from lower net bad debt expense compared to the prior year. On a normalized basis, our contractual rent growth approximates 1.5% on an annual basis based on the current composition of our portfolio. This amount is up over 50 basis points from just 5 years ago and is a result of an intentional push by our team to generate enhanced organic growth. We remain committed to walking this growth rate higher over time through our deliberate underwriting strategy.
轉向投資組合操作。同店租金第四季成長 2.6%,全年成長 1.9%,部分受惠於淨壞帳費用較上年下降。在正常化的基礎上,根據我們目前的投資組合組成,我們的合約租金年增長率約為 1.5%。這一數字比 5 年前增加了 50 多個基點,這是我們團隊有意推動增強有機成長的結果。我們仍然致力於透過我們深思熟慮的承保策略,隨著時間的推移提高這一成長率。
Our diligent asset management efforts led to a recapture rate of 103.6% during the quarter and 104.1% for the year, excluding the impact of the Cineworld bankruptcy. At year-end, occupancy was 98.6%, a 20 basis point decline from the prior quarter as a result of expected client move-outs.
我們勤奮的資產管理工作導致本季和全年的回收率分別達到 103.6% 和 104.1%(排除 Cineworld 破產的影響)。截至年底,由於預期顧客遷出,入住率為 98.6%,較上一季下降 20 個基點。
I will now turn it over to Jonathan, who will add further color to the quarter.
我現在將其交給喬納森,他將為本季增添更多色彩。
Jonathan Pong - Executive VP, CFO, Head of Corporate Finance & Treasurer
Jonathan Pong - Executive VP, CFO, Head of Corporate Finance & Treasurer
Thank you, Sumit. We completed an active quarter in the capital markets during the fourth quarter, raising $1.6 billion of equity at a weighted average price of $56.25, including activity subsequent to year-end, we currently have approximately $605 million of outstanding forward equity available to finance a portion of our equity needs in 2024.
謝謝你,蘇米特。第四季度,我們在資本市場上完成了一個活躍的季度,以56.25 美元的加權平均價格籌集了16 億美元的股本,其中包括年底後的活動,我們目前擁有約6.05 億美元的未償遠期股本,可用於為部分融資2024 年我們的股權需求。
When combined with over $800 million of annual free cash flow available to us following the Spirit merger, we have the ability to finance all of our equity needs for our $2 billion investments guidance without having to tap into the public equity markets for the remainder of 2024. And this is before any capital recycling opportunities through asset sales, which we expect to be north of the $116 million volume we achieved in 2023.
再加上 Spirit 合併後我們可獲得超過 8 億美元的年度自由現金流,我們有能力為 20 億美元投資指導的所有股權需求提供資金,而無需在 2024 年剩餘時間內進入公開股權市場這還沒有透過資產出售實現任何資本回收機會,我們預計資產出售將超過2023 年實現的1.16 億美元的交易額。
As Sumit mentioned earlier, our AFFO per share guidance midpoint implies 4.3% annual growth and assumes only $2 billion of investment volume with almost half are we accounted for in our development pipeline. From a debt capital market standpoint, we derisked our 2024 maturity schedule through approximately $2.2 billion of bond issuance activity and a 45-day spend. Beginning with our GBP 750 million sterling notes offering in December and culminating in our USD 1.25 billion offering that closed last month.
正如 Sumit 先前提到的,我們的 AFFO 每股指引中點意味著年增長率為 4.3%,並假設投資額僅為 20 億美元,其中幾乎一半都在我們的開發管道中。從債務資本市場的角度來看,我們透過約 22 億美元的債券發行活動和 45 天的支出來降低 2024 年到期計畫的風險。從 12 月發行的 7.5 億英鎊票據開始,到上個月結束的 12.5 億美元發行結束。
Combined, the 2 offerings blend to a weighted average tenant of approximately 10.2 years and weighted average yield to maturity of approximately 5.5%. Near-term, these 2 offerings allow us to fund our business given our current investment outlook without needing to tap into the debt capital markets in 2024, which we believe was a prudent approach given the persistent instability that has permeated the capital markets over the last 2 years. There are also longer-term strategic considerations that dictated this approach.
合併後,這兩款產品的加權平均租戶期限約為 10.2 年,加權平均到期收益率約為 5.5%。從短期來看,考慮到我們當前的投資前景,這兩項產品使我們能夠為我們的業務提供資金,而無需在2024 年進入債務資本市場,考慮到過去滲透到資本市場的持續不穩定,我們認為這是一種謹慎的做法2年。也有更長期的策略考量決定了這種方法。
Following our debut Euro offerings in the summer of 2023, we believe these offerings also support our steadfast desire to maintain investor diversification across our multicurrency debt complex, while pocketing future debt repayment risk in years with meaningful capacity.
繼我們於2023 年夏季首次發行歐元產品後,我們相信這些產品也支持了我們在多貨幣債務複合體中保持投資者多元化的堅定願望,同時以有意義的能力將未來的債務償還風險納入囊中。
Last month, we also exercised the first of 2 1-year extension options available to us on our $1.1 billion multicurrency term loan that we established in January of 2023. In conjunction with the extension, we entered into a 2-year floating to fixed interest rate swap that effectively locked in a fixed rate of approximately 4.85%. On this principle through its maturity date in January 2026. In conjunction with the closing of the Spirit merger, we also assumed $1.3 billion of term loan debt from Spirit as well as $1.3 billion in existing floating to fixed interest rate swaps, which resulted in an effective weighted average fixed rate of 3.9% on that debt.
上個月,我們也對2023 年1 月設立的11 億美元多幣種定期貸款行使了2 個1 年期延期選項中的第一個選項。在延期的同時,我們也簽訂了2 年期浮動固定利率貸款利率掉期有效鎖定了約 4.85% 的固定利率。根據這項原則,直至2026 年1 月到期日為止。隨著Spirit 合併的結束,我們也承擔了Spirit 的13 億美元定期貸款債務以及現有的13 億美元浮動利率到固定利率掉期債務,這導致了該債務的有效加權平均固定利率為 3.9%。
Of this term loan principle, $800 million matures in 2025 and $500 million matures in 2027. Moving on to key credit metrics at year-end. We finished the year with net debt to annualized pro forma EBITDA of 5.5x in line with our targeted leverage ratio. And this excludes the $605 million of outstanding forward equity, we currently have available to us. Our fixed charge coverage finished the year at 4.7x, which was a high watermark for us in 2023. And benefiting from higher investment yields in the fourth quarter and less and lower-cost short-term borrowings outstanding.
在該定期貸款本金中,8 億美元將於 2025 年到期,5 億美元將於 2027 年到期。年底將討論關鍵信貸指標。今年結束時,我們的淨負債與年化預計 EBITDA 比率為 5.5 倍,符合我們的目標槓桿率。這還不包括我們目前可用的 6.05 億美元未償遠期股本。我們的固定費用覆蓋率今年結束時為 4.7 倍,這是我們 2023 年的高水位。並受益於第四季度投資收益率的提高以及未償還短期借款的減少和成本降低。
In 2024, we do anticipate an increase of $45 million in annualized noncash interest expense we expect to recognize from the amortization of below-market debt on the Spirit that we assumed. Note that this noncash interest expense adjustment does lower annual FFO per share run rate by approximately $0.05 per share, but is not reflected in AFFO thus explaining the primary reason why our initial FFO and AFFO guidance ranges are more closely bound than in 2023.
到 2024 年,我們確實預計年化非現金利息支出將增加 4500 萬美元,我們預計將從我們假設的 Spirit 上低於市場水平的債務攤銷中確認。請注意,這項非現金利息費用調整確實使年度FFO 每股運行率降低了約0.05 美元,但並未反映在AFFO 中,因此解釋了我們最初的FFO 和AFFO 指導範圍比2023 年更緊密的主要原因。
We would note that purchase price accounting adjustments are ongoing for the merger and thus, straight-line rent and FAS 141 adjustments from the merger are likely to push FFO higher once finalized, and we will adjust our FFO guidance at that time. Of course, these are noncash adjustments that do not impact AFFO.
我們注意到,合併的購買價格會計調整正在進行中,因此,合併帶來的直線租金和 FAS 141 調整一旦最終確定,可能會推高 FFO,屆時我們將調整我們的 FFO 指引。當然,這些都是非現金調整,不會影響 AFFO。
Looking forward, I would like to reiterate Sumit's opening comments about our lack of reliance on the capital markets to fund our growth in 2024. From a liquidity perspective, we view our near-term capital availability as a strength following our bond deal last month. We head into the rest of 2024 with approximately $4 billion of liquidity available at year-end, variable rate debt representing less than 5% of our total debt capital stack and no capital markets execution risk to fund our growth for the remainder of 2024.
展望未來,我想重申Sumit 的開場評論,即我們不依賴資本市場來為2024 年的成長提供資金。從流動性角度來看,我們認為我們的近期資本可用性是繼上個月債券交易之後的一個優勢。進入2024 年剩餘時間,我們年底的可用流動性約為40 億美元,可變利率債務占我們債務資本總額的不到5%,並且沒有資本市場執行風險來為我們2024 年剩餘時間的增長提供資金。
With that, I'll turn it back over to Sumit for closing remarks.
至此,我將把它轉回給 Sumit 做總結發言。
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Thank you, Jonathan. Before concluding, I would like to extend my immense gratitude to Ron Merriman for his valued service to realty income on our Board of Directors the past 19 years. Ron's leadership, guidance and mentorship have been invaluable, and we all owe him our sincere thanks.
謝謝你,喬納森。在結束發言之前,我謹向 Ron Merriman 表示衷心感謝,感謝他在過去 19 年為我們董事會的房地產收入做出的寶貴貢獻。羅恩的領導、指導和指導非常寶貴,我們都對他表示衷心的感謝。
I would also like to extend a warm welcome to Jeff Jacobson, who will be joining our Board. I'm thrilled for all of us at Realty Income to benefit from Jeff's perspective as a former CEO of one of the world's premier global real estate asset management firms LaSalle Investment Management and in his current role as the Chairman of the Board of Cadillac Fairview Corporation.
我還要熱烈歡迎傑夫‧雅各布森 (Jeff Jacobson),他將加入我們的董事會。我很高興 Realty Income 的所有人都能從 Jeff 的觀點中受益,他是全球首屈一指的全球房地產資產管理公司 LaSalle Investment Management 的前首席執行官,目前擔任凱迪拉克 Fairview Corporation 的董事會主席。
In conclusion, our results in 2023 underscore the multiple avenues of growth at our disposal in the global commercial real estate industry, including through one-off and portfolio acquisitions, multiple asset types, corporate sale-leasebacks, development and joint venture partnerships and via public M&A opportunities. The depth of our platform, team and relationships enable us to leverage some or all of these sourcing avenues concurrently as opportunities arise.
總而言之,我們 2023 年的業績突顯了我們在全球商業房地產行業可以採用的多種成長途徑,包括透過一次性和組合收購、多種資產類型、企業售後回租、開發和合資夥伴關係以及透過公開市場併購機會。我們的平台、團隊和關係的深度使我們能夠在機會出現時同時利用部分或全部這些採購途徑。
In 2023, we completed 5 transactions greater than $500 million in size and 2 of which were greater than $1 billion, excluding the Spirit merger. These are transactions that Realty Income was uniquely positioned to execute given our size, scale and access to capital globally. These distinct competitive advantages support us in serving as a real estate partner to the world's leading companies at an unparalleled scale.
2023 年,我們完成了 5 筆規模超過 5 億美元的交易,其中 2 筆交易規模超過 10 億美元,不包括 Spirit 合併。鑑於我們的規模、規模和全球資本獲取管道,Realty Income 具有獨特的優勢來執行這些交易。這些獨特的競爭優勢支持我們以無與倫比的規模成為世界領先公司的房地產合作夥伴。
Moreover, we believe that serving as capital provider to a diverse spectrum of clients who are leaders in their respective industries, furthers our core mission to deliver dependable monthly dividends that grow over time. We will now open it up for questions.
此外,我們相信,作為各自行業領導者的各類客戶的資本提供者,將進一步推動我們的核心使命,即提供隨時間增長的可靠的每月股息。我們現在將開放提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.
(操作員說明)今天的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯(Michael Goldsmith)。
Michael Goldsmith - Associate Director and Associate Analyst
Michael Goldsmith - Associate Director and Associate Analyst
First question is just on the acquisition guidance. You're starting the year with $2 billion of acquisitions. It sounds like you have visibility into half of them. So really like the execution risk for the year is only for $1 billion. So what has to change in order for that number to kind of move higher through the year? Is it interest rates? Is it opportunities that come to you? Is it your ability to do deals kind of like what you've done with the Bellagio with preferred equity or along with Asda to get it done. Like how should we think about the potential for upside for that number and that number will be higher through the year?
第一個問題只是關於收購指南。今年伊始,您將進行 20 億美元的收購案。聽起來你可以看到其中一半。因此,今年的執行風險實際上僅為 10 億美元。那麼,為了讓這個數字在今年有所上升,需要做出哪些改變呢?是利率嗎?機會來找你嗎?您是否有能力進行交易,就像您以優先股與 Bellagio 或 Asda 一起完成交易一樣。例如我們該如何考慮這個數字的上升潛力以及這個數字在今年會更高?
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Thank you for that question, Michael. It's a lot of what you just said. If you look at the market today and you look at the cap rate environment, the adjustments that we have seen has not been commensurate with the movement in the cost of capital. And we are coming out with a business plan that basically says, okay, these 2 variables that we don't control are not going to be part of how we deliver the 4.3% growth and north of 10% total return growth.
謝謝你提出這個問題,麥可。剛才說了很多。如果你看看今天的市場和資本化率環境,你會發現我們看到的調整與資本成本的變動並不相稱。我們正在製定一項商業計劃,基本上是說,好吧,這兩個我們無法控制的變數不會成為我們實現 4.3% 成長和 10% 以上總回報成長的一部分。
And that's the reason for the numbers that we have shared with you. If the cap rates were to adjust, we will be first in line to take advantage of that. If the interest rate environments were to start to go down, which would then have an impact on our cost of capital, i.e., lower cost of capital, we would be first in line to react. We wanted to come out with a business plan that had no reliance on the capital markets on the funding side and come up with a number which we all believe very, very confidently that we will be able to meet, if not exceed.
這就是我們與您分享的數字的原因。如果資本化率要調整,我們將首先利用這一點。如果利率環境開始下降,這將對我們的資本成本產生影響,即資本成本降低,我們將首先做出反應。我們希望制定一個在融資方面不依賴資本市場的商業計劃,並提出一個我們都非常非常有信心能夠滿足甚至超過的數字。
If the environment were to change, i.e., interest rate were to start to go down, et cetera, which would have a positive impact on our cost of capital. I do believe that a lot of the conversations that we are having. So it's not the conversations that have dried up. It's the expectation in the market around what the reservation price needs to be that needs to move. And that can happen either through the movement of cap rates or through our cost of capital getting better.
如果環境發生變化,即利率開始下降等,這將對我們的資本成本產生正面影響。我確實相信我們正在進行的許多對話。所以並不是對話已經枯竭。需要改變的是市場對預訂價格的預期。這可以透過資本化率的變動或透過我們的資本成本改善來實現。
And right now, we feel very confident in saying the plan that we have has very little to no risk, and we can deliver a 10-plus percent return without having to be aggressive in the market. And that's really the thesis around what we've come out with.
現在,我們非常有信心地說,我們的計劃幾乎沒有風險,而且我們可以提供 10% 以上的回報,而不必在市場上激進。這確實是我們所提出的論文。
Michael Goldsmith - Associate Director and Associate Analyst
Michael Goldsmith - Associate Director and Associate Analyst
No. That's helpful, Sumit. And then if we think about -- as my follow-up question, not to be -- we still have a lot to get through with '24. So this question isn't necessarily specific to '25, but just like the philosophy of if the environment stays kind of in a similar-ish range than where it is right now, where you just there isn't a lot of deals getting done. The transaction market remains kind of murky, you've driven. You've locked in growth for '24 through an acquisition, how would you think about -- how would you think about navigating through a multi -- a potentially multiyear kind of murky environment. Yes, exactly. Like how do you plan on navigating through a multiyear murky environment, if that was the case?
不,這很有幫助,蘇米特。然後,如果我們想一想——作為我的後續問題,而不是——我們在 24 世紀還有很多事情要做。所以這個問題不一定是 25 年特有的,但就像這樣的哲學:如果環境保持在與現在類似的範圍內,那麼你只是沒有完成很多溝通。在你的推動下,交易市場仍然有點暗淡。你已經透過收購鎖定了 24 年的成長,你會如何考慮——你會如何考慮穿越一個可能持續多年的黑暗環境。對,就是這樣。如果是這樣的話,你打算如何度過多年的黑暗環境?
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
So Michael, the reason I believe that cap rates haven't moved is because of the volatility in the market. If there was certainty that, hey, this cost of capital environment is going to remain at these elevated levels for the next 3 years, guess what? Cap rates will adjust., will move, and there will be more willingness on the part of the seller to transact today.
邁克爾,我認為資本化率沒有改變的原因是市場的波動。如果可以肯定的是,嘿,這種資本環境成本將在未來三年內保持在如此高的水平,你猜怎麼著?資本化率將會調整,將會發生變化,賣方今天的交易意願將會更加強烈。
We had the tenure at a 4.2% towards the end of last year, it dropped down to 3.75% in January, and then it's back up to 4.2%. In that sort of environment, you have sellers that are saying, we expect the Fed to start cutting interest rate later in the year. I think it can hold off another 6 to 7 months. So why transact in this environment today? And I think that's the reason why we have hesitation and lack of this widespread movement in cap rates that one would expect if people were to bind to the fact that this cost of capital environment has been permanently impaired.
去年年底我們的保有權為 4.2%,一月下降到 3.75%,然後又回到 4.2%。在這種環境下,賣家會說,我們預計聯準會將在今年稍後開始降息。我認為還可以再延後6到7個月。那為什麼今天要在這種環境下進行交易呢?我認為這就是為什麼我們猶豫不決並且缺乏資本化率的廣泛變動的原因,如果人們接受這種資本環境成本已經永久受損的事實,人們就會期望這種變動。
So I think in this scenario that you've sort of dictated, if that were to be the norm and if everybody were to accept that, that, hey, for the next 3 years, the cost of capital environment is not going to change, I do think transactions are going to come back. I do think cap rates will move much more than they have done so. And yes, we'll be the ones first in line to take advantage of that.
所以我認為在這種情況下,你已經規定了,如果這是常態,如果每個人都接受這一點,那麼,嘿,在接下來的三年裡,資本環境的成本不會改變,我確實認為交易將會回來。我確實認為資本化率的變動將比現在大得多。是的,我們將成為第一個利用這一點的人。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from Joshua Dennerlein with BOA Merrill Lynch.
我們的下一個問題來自 BOA Merrill Lynch 的 Joshua Dennerlein。
Joshua Dennerlein - VP
Joshua Dennerlein - VP
I appreciate the time. Just wanted to -- I had a question on the development funding. How do we think about the NOI from that development funding coming online? Do you only get NOI or return once the project is finished? Or do you get like a return as the money is kind of drawn down for that development?
我很感激時間。我只是想——我有一個關於開發資金的問題。我們如何看待上線開發資金帶來的 NOI?專案完成後您是否只能獲得 NOI 或返回?或者你會因為開發而提取資金而獲得回報嗎?
Jonathan Pong - Executive VP, CFO, Head of Corporate Finance & Treasurer
Jonathan Pong - Executive VP, CFO, Head of Corporate Finance & Treasurer
Josh, this is Jonathan. One way to think about it because the answer is really going to vary depending on the lease. But if we're doing a development takeout, obviously, we put the funds down when the project is done, we get those assets and the rent starts and there's really no lag.
喬什,這是喬納森。思考這個問題的一種方式是,因為答案實際上會根據租約的不同而有所不同。但如果我們正在進行開發外購,顯然,我們會在專案完成後投入資金,我們會獲得這些資產並開始收取租金,並且實際上沒有任何延遲。
If it's a development build-to-suit we're funding along the way a little bit more nuance associated with that, where you're not quite getting the economics that we are entitled to as we put this funding out. However, from an accounting standpoint, the way that it flows through to the income statement is through essentially our cost of short-term debt. And so from a modeling perspective, the most clean way to do it, in my view, would be to just assume when you see us developing and deploying capital, that's when the yield begins because in most cases, that's going to be the case.
如果這是一個開發客製化項目,我們會一直提供與此相關的更多細微差別的資金,當我們投入這筆資金時,您並不能完全了解我們有權獲得的經濟效益。然而,從會計的角度來看,它流入損益表的方式本質上是透過我們的短期債務成本。因此,從建模的角度來看,在我看來,最乾淨的方法就是假設當你看到我們開發和部署資本時,那就是收益率開始的時候,因為在大多數情況下,情況都會如此。
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Yes, the vast majority of the pipeline are takeouts, Josh. So this is really entering into a forward contract. We are not deploying capital as the assets being developed. And once it's developed and the certificate of occupancy is received, we are essentially buying the asset at that point. And obviously, rent is commencing at that point. So that's how one should think about the development pipeline.
是的,絕大多數的通路都是外賣,喬許。所以這其實是簽訂遠期合約。我們不會將資本作為正在開發的資產來部署。一旦開發完成並收到佔用證書,我們實際上就是在那時購買該資產。顯然,租金從那時開始。這就是人們應該如何考慮開發管道。
Joshua Dennerlein - VP
Joshua Dennerlein - VP
And I appreciate all that color. Maybe one more on development. I guess just how do we think about development as kind of like when you look across like your appetite to acquire new assets, like how do you think about like development? Is this something you're going to lean into more? There are better yields on developments versus just straight-up acquisitions. Just kind of curious.
我很欣賞所有這些顏色。也許還有一個關於開發的內容。我想我們如何看待發展,就像當你看到你對獲取新資產的興趣時,就像你如何看待發展一樣?這是你會更加關注的事情嗎?與直接收購相比,開發案的收益率更高。只是有點好奇。
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Yes. It's just yet another tool that is available to us to drive growth, Josh. That's how we think about development. We have existing client relationships, they have aggressive plans of expansion. They come to us and they say, "Hey, we are working with this developer. Would you be interested in getting slightly higher yields than what the market would dictate if this asset were available today?" And would you lend your balance sheet to help us expand.
是的。喬什,這只是我們可以用來推動成長的另一個工具。這就是我們對發展的看法。我們有現有的客戶關係,他們有積極的擴張計劃。他們來找我們說:“嘿,我們正在與該開發商合作。如果該資產今天可用,您是否有興趣獲得比市場規定的收益率稍高的收益率?”您能藉出您的資產負債表來幫助我們擴張嗎?
And that is part of how we are building out our development pipeline because the expectation is that the yield one can generate through development should be superior to what one could get in the transaction market if that asset were fully operational today. That was the thesis. Now obviously, you might see that some of the yields that we have posted on these developments were slightly lower than what we were able to get in the acquisitions market, and this is largely a function of how quickly the cost of capital environment changed and the adjustments that did take place on the cap rate side, but on the way down on the cost of capital side.
這是我們建立開發管道的一部分,因為我們期望透過開發所產生的收益應該優於如果該資產今天全面運營的話在交易市場上可以獲得的收益。這就是論文。現在顯然,您可能會看到,我們在這些開發項目上發布的一些收益率略低於我們在收購市場上獲得的收益率,這在很大程度上取決於資本環境成本變化的速度和資本環境成本的變化速度。資本化率方面確實發生了調整,但資本成本方面卻在下降。
The transactions we are entering into today on the development side, we'll have will be reflective of the yield environment today. And if the cost of capital were to improve, let's say, a year from now to 1.5 years from now, when these assets get delivered, there will be a positive spread that you should see on the development yields versus the -- at that time, cap rates that are transacting in the market.
我們今天在開發方面進行的交易將反映今天的產量環境。如果資本成本提高,比如說,從現在起一年到 1.5 年後,當這些資產交付時,您應該會看到開發收益率與當時的收益率之間存在正向利差。 ,市場上交易的上限利率。
So this is really yet another tool. This will never be a dominant part of our business, but it is certainly a tool that if we want to view ourselves as the real estate partners to leading operators. This is a tool that we want to also provide to our clients to help them grow their business.
所以這確實是另一個工具。這永遠不會成為我們業務的主導部分,但如果我們想將自己視為領先營運商的房地產合作夥伴,它肯定是一個工具。我們也希望提供客戶這個工具,幫助他們發展業務。
Joshua Dennerlein - VP
Joshua Dennerlein - VP
Got it. And if I can sneak one more in. Sorry about that. Does your -- I know your guide is only $2 billion, but when you think about your broader pipeline, are there a lot of portfolio deals out there? Like bigger transactions out there? I know they take a while to close. Just kind of curious.
知道了。如果我能再偷偷溜進去一次的話。抱歉。我知道你的指導價只有 20 億美元,但當你考慮更廣泛的管道時,是否有很多投資組合交易?喜歡更大的交易嗎?我知道他們需要一段時間才能關閉。只是有點好奇。
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
So Josh, I think I tried to hint that on the last conversation when somebody asked about what are you seeing, what's driving the movement in the market. I can tell you that we are continuing to have a multitude of conversations with our clients, where there's a disconnect is what is the price at which they are willing to transact. And that's where the disconnect is.
所以喬希,我想我試著在上次談話中暗示,當有人問你看到了什麼,是什麼推動了市場的趨勢。我可以告訴你,我們正在繼續與客戶進行大量對話,其中存在的分歧是他們願意交易的價格是多少。這就是脫節的地方。
So it's not that suddenly we are not talking to our clients. We, in fact, one of our largest clients, we spoke with them a couple of weeks ago and where the conversation sort of ended was their expectation of cap rates versus what it is that we could -- what it is that we would need to be able to generate the kind of spreads that would allow us to do the transaction. And that's where -- that's the type of conversations we're having.
因此,我們並不是突然不再與客戶交談。事實上,我們是我們最大的客戶之一,幾週前我們與他們進行了交談,談話的結尾是他們對上限利率的期望與我們可以做到的——我們需要什麼能夠產生允許我們進行交易的點差。這就是我們正在進行的對話類型。
And clearly, if you look at what we did last year, more than 5 transactions were above $500 million in size, 2 of which were above $1 billion in size. That's what we can deliver. That's what we can bring to the table. And that's what our clients need are big solutions to big problems. And so yes, when the spigots open and this reservation price is going to be met by our cost of capital, we will be able to take advantage of and build out our pipeline just like we did the last 3 years.
顯然,如果你看看我們去年所做的事情,你會發現超過 5 筆交易的規模超過 5 億美元,其中 2 筆交易的規模超過 10 億美元。這就是我們可以提供的。這就是我們可以帶來的東西。這就是我們的客戶需要的大問題的大解決方案。所以,是的,當龍頭打開並且我們的資本成本將滿足這個保留價格時,我們將能夠利用並建立我們的管道,就像我們過去三年所做的那樣。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from Nate Crossett with BNP.
我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的內特·克羅塞特 (Nate Crossett)。
Nathan Daniel Crossett - Analyst
Nathan Daniel Crossett - Analyst
Just one on the pipeline ex development. I'm just curious if you've closed on anything so far in Q1? And if so, what was the pricing on that? And then my second question is the occupancy guide was a bit below current levels. So maybe you can just give us a little color on that? And what's on the watch list right now that we should be tracking?
只有一個正在開發中。我只是好奇到目前為止,你們在第一季是否已經完成了任何事情?如果是這樣,定價是多少?我的第二個問題是入住指南略低於目前水準。那麼也許你可以給我們一點顏色呢?現在我們應該追蹤的觀察名單上有哪些內容?
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Nate. So I'm not going to start giving you cap rates on assets that we have closed in the first quarter Suffice it to say that there have been transactions that we have closed on in the first quarter, it is reflective of some of the comments that we've made. There has been movement in cap rates. You'll see that when we report our first quarter numbers, but the movement in cap rates is not as widespread as we would like to see.
內特.因此,我不會開始向您提供我們在第一季關閉的資產的上限利率,只要說我們在第一季度關閉的交易就足夠了,這反映了一些評論我們已經做到了。上限利率發生了變化。當我們報告第一季的數據時,您會發現這一點,但資本化率的變動並不像我們希望看到的那麼廣泛。
It's not reflective of the changes that have occurred in the cost of capital side. So -- but yes, our flow business is ongoing. And we are being a lot more selective about making sure that our spreads are not being compromised just to create volume. And we have the advantage of coming into this year with a business plan that allows us to do that. With regards to occupancy, we have mentioned that it's going to be above 98%. A lot of these were expected at lease expiration, these were expected vacancies.
它沒有反映資本成本方面所發生的變化。所以——但是,是的,我們的流量業務仍在繼續。我們更有選擇性地確保我們的點差不會僅僅為了創造交易量而受到損害。今年我們的優勢在於制定了一項商業計劃,使我們能夠做到這一點。至於入住率,我們已經提到它將達到98%以上。其中許多預計在租約到期時出現,這些都是預期的空缺。
And we have -- we generally tend to sort of guide to this low 98% occupancy. Part of what makes our business slightly different from perhaps what you see with the other -- with some of our other peers is we actually like to hold on to some of our vacant assets given the ability to reposition these assets and create more economic value. I know that for a long time over the last 6 quarters, we were hovering around that 99%, which was unusual for us.
我們通常傾向於對 98% 的低入住率進行指導。我們的業務與其他一些同行的業務略有不同,部分原因是我們實際上喜歡保留一些空置資產,因為我們有能力重新定位這些資產並創造更多的經濟價值。我知道,在過去 6 個季度的很長一段時間裡,我們都在 99% 左右徘徊,這對我們來說很不尋常。
But we are very comfortable if we believe that we can generate more economic value which supersedes the holding cost of some of these vacant assets by repositioning it, et cetera, we are very comfortable doing so. So the way to think about how we run our business is the normalized level of occupancy should be in this 98.5% ZIP code. This 1.5% is vacancy that we need to be able to execute on the plans that I've just laid out.
但是,如果我們相信我們可以產生更多的經濟價值,透過重新定位這些空置資產來取代其中一些空置資產的持有成本,我們會非常放心,我們會非常放心地這樣做。因此,考慮我們如何經營業務的方法是,標準化的入住率應該在這個 98.5% 的郵遞區號中。這 1.5% 是我們需要能夠執行我剛剛制定的計劃的空缺。
Operator
Operator
And our next question today comes from Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets.
今天我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Brad Heffern。
Bradley Barrett Heffern - Analyst
Bradley Barrett Heffern - Analyst
Sumit, can you talk about the relative attractiveness of Europe right now versus the U.S.? It seems like you don't think anything is all that attractive overall, but at least in Europe, you have the better cost of debt?
Sumit,您能談談目前歐洲與美國相比的相對吸引力嗎?看來您認為整體上沒有什麼吸引力,但至少在歐洲,您的債務成本更好?
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Yes, that's a great question, Brad. I will tell you that even in Europe, the volume of transactions is a lot lower, again, because of this disconnect between buyers and sellers and what each requires to perpetuate a transaction. However, having said that, we are seeing pockets of opportunities, especially in the U.K., where we feel like even in this environment, transactions can get done.
是的,這是一個很好的問題,布拉德。我會告訴你,即使在歐洲,交易量也要低得多,因為買家和賣家之間以及每個人維持交易所需的條件之間存在脫節。然而,話雖如此,我們看到了一些機會,特別是在英國,我們覺得即使在這種環境下,交易也可以完成。
And so that, along with the fact that at least in Europe, our cost of debt is significantly lower by 110, 120 basis points. We are continuing to look for opportunities. But the volume being low is not just unique to the U.S. It is across the geographies that we play in.
因此,至少在歐洲,我們的債務成本顯著降低了 110、120 個基點。我們正在繼續尋找機會。但低成交量並不是美國獨有的現象,在我們參與遊戲的所有地區都是如此。
Bradley Barrett Heffern - Analyst
Bradley Barrett Heffern - Analyst
Okay. And then, Jonathan, I thought there might be more of a reduction in G&A as a percent of revenue this year than what the guidance suggested just given the additional revenue from Spirit was coming with not much additional G&A. So is there anything else going on that's keeping that figure from declining more?
好的。然後,喬納森,我認為今年的一般管理費用佔收入的百分比可能會比指導建議的減少更多,因為 Spirit 的額外收入不會帶來太多額外的一般管理費用。那麼還有什麼其他因素可以阻止這個數字進一步下降嗎?
Jonathan Pong - Executive VP, CFO, Head of Corporate Finance & Treasurer
Jonathan Pong - Executive VP, CFO, Head of Corporate Finance & Treasurer
Brad, there's always going to be a fair amount of conservatism sitting here in mid-February on line items like that. We did have quite a bit of growth from a resource standpoint in the back half of 2023, you're going to see the full annualized effect of that. And it's still too early to tell on the synergies front with Spirit, what ultimately is going to be achievable, but in the first month or so less than that of ownership, everything is trending to better than we expected from a synergy standpoint.
布拉德,二月中旬在此類議題上總會有相當多的保守派人士。從資源的角度來看,我們在 2023 年下半年確實實現了相當大的成長,您將看到其全部年化效應。現在判斷與 Spirit 的協同效應以及最終能夠實現的目標還為時過早,但在比所有權更短的第一個月左右,從協同效應的角度來看,一切都比我們預期的要好。
And as a reminder, on a cash basis, we expected $30 million of synergies off of a $40 million cash G&A load annualized. So we're hopeful, but look, we're trying to create a platform. We're trying to refine certain areas of the business, but we're really trying to resource with everything going on, all of our groups to create this moat, if you will, that can persist for a long time. So with that comes a little bit of investment in things like technology and in people. So that's really the driver of that.
提醒一下,在現金基礎上,我們預計年化 4,000 萬美元的現金管理費用將產生 3,000 萬美元的綜效。所以我們充滿希望,但是看,我們正在努力創建一個平台。我們正在努力完善業務的某些領域,但我們確實在努力為正在發生的一切提供資源,我們所有的團隊都在努力創造這條護城河,如果你願意的話,它可以持續很長時間。因此,隨之而來的是對技術和人員等方面的一些投資。所以這確實是驅動因素。
Operator
Operator
And our next question today comes from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho.
今天我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Haendel St. Juste。
Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste - MD of Americas Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste - MD of Americas Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Good morning out there. I guess my first question is on the investment spreads here. I think you guys previously outlined expectations for a minimum of 200 basis point spread on new investments versus your cost of capital, which is well above, I guess, what you saw last year. So I guess I'm curious, one is the 200 basis points still kind of your minimum required spread? And if so, how do you achieve that today given where your cost of capital is -- appears to be somewhere in the [6]? And if that requires using some of your free cash flow, how are you thinking about the required return for that portion of your capital as well?
早安.我想我的第一個問題是關於這裡的投資利差。我想你們之前概述了新投資與資本成本之間至少有 200 個基點利差的預期,我想這遠高於你們去年看到的情況。所以我想我很好奇,一是 200 個基點還是你們要求的最低利差嗎?如果是這樣,鑑於您的資本成本似乎位於[6]中的某個位置,您今天如何實現這一目標?如果這需要使用您的部分自由現金流,您如何考慮這部分資本所需的回報?
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Haendel, thank you for your question. So a couple of points. I've heard a few comments around free cash flow. We are going to generate north of $800 million in free cash flow. If you think about our $2 billion of acquisition guidance, this represents 40% of the total volume. And on a leverage-neutral basis, this represents 60% of the total capital.
韓德爾,謝謝你的提問。所以有幾點。我聽到了一些關於自由現金流的評論。我們將產生超過 8 億美元的自由現金流。如果您考慮我們 20 億美元的收購指導,這相當於總金額的 40%。在槓桿中性的基礎上,這佔總資本的 60%。
So to be able to generate 200 basis points on free cash flow is actually you can do deals at 2% cap rates and still generate 200 basis points. But obviously, that's not how we think about our business. And by the way, the 200 basis points that we were able to achieve, I would say now about 3 years ago, 2.5 years ago, that was in an environment where our cost of capital was massively different than what it is today. And being able to generate 200 basis points was not that difficult.
因此,能夠在自由現金流上產生 200 個基點實際上意味著您可以以 2% 的上限利率進行交易,但仍能產生 200 個基點。但顯然,我們並不是這樣看待我們的業務的。順便說一句,我們能夠實現的 200 個基點,我想說大約 3 年前,2.5 年前,當時我們的資本成本與今天有很大不同。而能夠產生200個基點並不是那麼困難。
On average, from the time we've been tracking spreads, we have always said that the average spread has been 150 basis points. We also want to make it clear that there will be times like last year and the fourth quarter of last year and all of last year where we did 120 basis points, where when you build up a pipeline with a certain backdrop with regards to your cost of capital and the cap rates that you're entering into a contract in. And by the time you close, if your cost of capital environment changes and you're permanently financing it at that point in time, that's precisely what happened all of last year.
平均而言,從我們追蹤利差開始,我們一直說平均利差為 150 個基點。我們還想明確表示,在某些時候,例如去年、去年第四季度以及去年全年,我們都實現了 120 個基點,當您在特定的成本背景下建立管道時資本和您簽訂合約的上限利率。到您結束時,如果您的資本成本環境發生變化並且您在那時永久為其融資,那麼這正是去年發生的情況年。
We had a very robust pipeline and we were entering into contracts with the expectation of not necessarily 200 basis points, but certainly 150 basis points and sometimes well north of that. But by the time we actually permanently finance the transaction, the cost of capital environment was different. And just to make another point, if you actually look at the cost of permanent financing that we ultimately effectuated in 2023, what we locked in, in terms of spread was closer to 140 basis points. It was 136 basis points, I think.
我們有一個非常強大的管道,我們簽訂的合約的預期不一定是 200 個基點,但肯定是 150 個基點,有時甚至遠高於這個水平。但當我們真正永久地為交易提供資金時,資本環境的成本已經不同了。再說一點,如果你真正看看我們最終在 2023 年實現的永久融資成本,我們鎖定的利差接近 140 個基點。我認為是 136 個基點。
So much closer to the average that we have since we've been tracking this particular metric. But I just want to make sure that if the expectation is that in any transaction that we enter into, we're going to try to lock in 200 basis points. That's not how we think about pursuing transactions. We also use a bar build strategy where there might be transactions that are precisely the right investment for us. And if it only creates 100 basis points, we believe that on a risk-adjusted return basis, that is the right profile for that investment, we are comfortable doing that particular investment.
自從我們一直追蹤這個特定指標以來,它非常接近平均值。但我只是想確保,如果期望在我們進行的任何交易中,我們將嘗試鎖定 200 個基點。這不是我們對待交易的方式。我們也使用酒吧建立策略,其中可能存在對我們來說正是正確投資的交易。如果它只創造 100 個基點,我們相信在風險調整後的回報基礎上,這是該投資的正確配置,我們很樂意進行該特定投資。
But then we will always try to balance it with transactions that have a 200 basis point profile. But that volatility or that spectrum of spreads in this volatile environment is very difficult to predict, which is why we are -- we've come out with the plan that we have, which -- even in this environment, we can still deliver north of 10% without having to rely on the acquisition market.
但隨後我們將始終嘗試將其與具有 200 個基點概況的交易進行平衡。但是,在這種動盪的環境中,波動性或價差範圍很難預測,這就是為什麼我們——我們已經制定了我們的計劃,即使在這種環境下,我們仍然可以向北交付10%,無需依賴收購市場。
Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste - MD of Americas Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste - MD of Americas Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
I appreciate that. I just want to be clear, it sounds like 200 basis points is not the absolute minimum that you're seeking, which I think is a little different for what I think we had talked about a few months ago. But my next question, I guess, is on what's embedded in the guide here regarding credit loss and the integration of the Spirit portfolio? Can you touch on that a little bit?
我很感激。我只是想澄清一下,聽起來 200 個基點並不是您所尋求的絕對最小值,我認為這與我們幾個月前討論的內容有些不同。但我想我的下一個問題是指南中關於信用損失和 Spirit 投資組合整合的內容?能稍微談一下嗎?
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
The integration is going very well. We've closed on the transaction on the 23rd. We are still very excited about the portfolio we've absorbed. As part of this transaction, we've hired 8 people from Spirit on a permanent basis. And we have 7 people on a temporary basis that are helping us through the integration process over the next 6 to 9 months.
整合進展順利。我們已於 23 日結束交易。我們仍然對我們所吸收的投資組合感到非常興奮。作為此次交易的一部分,我們從 Spirit 永久聘用了 8 名員工。我們有 7 位臨時人員幫助我們完成未來 6 到 9 個月的整合過程。
In terms of the actual portfolio itself, we have not been surprised by -- now that we control this asset and the portfolio of clients that we are exposed to, we have not been negatively surprised on any front. There have been some positive surprises in terms of resolutions to certain clients where the outcome has been slightly more positive.
就實際投資組合本身而言,我們並不感到驚訝——既然我們控制了這項資產和我們所接觸的客戶投資組合,我們在任何方面都沒有感到驚訝。在向某些客戶提供的解決方案方面,出現了一些積極的驚喜,結果稍微積極一些。
But I will caution and say that it is still too early to tell. And that is part of the reason why we were very conservative in our underwriting. And what we shared with the market, we felt very comfortable in terms of delivering. But we've also said that it was conservative, and there happens to be upside, which we hope plays out. And if that's the case, we will share that information with you down the road.
但我要提醒大家的是,現在下結論還太早。這就是我們在核保方面非常保守的部分原因。對於我們與市場分享的內容,我們在交付方面感到非常滿意。但我們也說過,這是保守的,而且恰好有好處,我們希望這一點能夠發揮出來。如果是這樣,我們將在以後與您分享該資訊。
Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste - MD of Americas Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste - MD of Americas Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Got it. Got it. But are you able to quantify within the guide for potential credit loss or any added color on that?
知道了。知道了。但是,您能否在指南中量化潛在的信用損失或對此進行任何附加說明?
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
What we can share with you, Haendel, is the range that we have shared with you accommodates for any level of credit loss that the Spirit portfolio and/or our portfolio would generate.
Haendel,我們可以與您分享的是,我們與您分享的範圍可以適應 Spirit 投資組合和/或我們的投資組合可能產生的任何級別的信用損失。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Spenser Allaway with Green Street Advisors.
我們的下一個問題來自 Green Street Advisors 的 Spenser Allaway。
Spenser Bowes Allaway - Senior Analyst of Self-Storage & Net Lease
Spenser Bowes Allaway - Senior Analyst of Self-Storage & Net Lease
Given the dearth of deal volume right now, especially compared to recent years, what is the highest and best use of time right now? So I know you have a massive portfolio but outside of routine asset management. I'm just curious at this quiet period, if you will, is a good opportunity to underwrite new geographies or property types?
鑑於目前交易量不足,特別是與近年來相比,目前時間的最高和最佳利用是什麼?所以我知道你擁有龐大的投資組合,但不屬於常規資產管理範圍。我只是好奇這個安靜的時期,如果你願意的話,是承銷新地區或財產類型的好機會嗎?
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
It's all of those things, Spenser. I mean -- I think you've been following us for a while. We are constantly looking for ways to grow our portfolio and we are constantly looking at nontraditional ways to growing our earnings. And that will continue to be a massive focus of ours in 2024.
都是這些事情,史賓賽。我的意思是——我想你已經關注我們有一段時間了。我們不斷尋找擴大投資組合的方法,並不斷尋找非傳統的方法來增加我們的收入。到 2024 年,這將繼續成為我們的重點。
You're absolutely right, part of having to absorb an additional 2,000 assets with 400 new clients, not all new clients, but 400 clients coming from Spirit. There's going to be a fair amount of asset and capital recycling that we would like to also engage in and that is something that the team is very much focused on trying to take advantage of the time that we have to focus on playing a little bit of defense rather than the offense.
你是完全正確的,必須吸收額外的 2,000 資產和 400 個新客戶,不是所有新客戶,而是來自 Spirit 的 400 個客戶。我們也希望參與大量的資產和資本回收,這是團隊非常關注的事情,試圖利用我們必須專注於玩一點遊戲的時間防守而不是進攻。
But having said all of that, I do believe that this acquisitions environment can change and can change very quickly. And so the rest of the team, the investment team continues to stay in front of the clients, continues to have conversations, continues to be creative about how we could potentially be a solution to our clients. And so despite the guidance of $2 billion, I can tell you there is going to be a lot of work, perhaps even more so this year than last year.
但話雖如此,我確實相信這種收購環境可以改變,而且可以改變得非常快。因此,團隊的其他成員,投資團隊繼續站在客戶面前,繼續進行對話,並繼續創造性地思考如何為客戶提供潛在的解決方案。因此,儘管有 20 億美元的指導,但我可以告訴你,還有很多工作要做,今年可能比去年更多。
In terms of creating the right tools, creating the right efficiencies, all of the things that we've sort of had to put a little bit on the back burner given the robustness of the investment environment that we've had over the last 3 years. So I think all of that will manifest itself in a much more scalable business, and we'll be happy to share some of that as and when we put it to use and actually start to realize some of the scale benefits.
在創建正確的工具、創造正確的效率方面,考慮到過去三年來我們所擁有的穩健的投資環境,所有這些事情我們都不得不暫時擱置。 。因此,我認為所有這些都將體現在更具可擴展性的業務中,當我們將其投入使用並實際開始實現一些規模優勢時,我們將很樂意分享其中的一些內容。
Spenser Bowes Allaway - Senior Analyst of Self-Storage & Net Lease
Spenser Bowes Allaway - Senior Analyst of Self-Storage & Net Lease
Okay. Great. And do you guys have a target date for when you'd like to get through the kind of the spare portfolio in terms of pegging some potential disposition candidates and things of that nature? Do you guys have to get a target date when you want to get through the portfolio?
好的。偉大的。你們是否有一個目標日期來確定何時完成備用投資組合,以掛鉤一些潛在的處置候選人和類似性質的事物?當你們想要完成作品集時,你們必須確定目標日期嗎?
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
We are not waiting on a particular date. There's obviously a priority of assets that we have identified that we don't believe to be core to our overall portfolio. Those are already in the market. And then we are culling through the rest of the portfolio to continue to add to our capital recycling program for 2024.
我們不是在等待特定的日期。顯然,我們已經確定了一些優先資產,但我們認為這些資產並不是我們整體投資組合的核心。這些已經在市場上銷售了。然後,我們將篩選其餘的投資組合,並繼續加入 2024 年的資本回收計畫。
So there isn't a particular target date, but we'll be happy to share with you more on this front during the first quarter earnings when we'll have assumed control of this portfolio for about 2 months and 10 days.
因此,沒有特定的目標日期,但我們很樂意在第一季度收益期間與您分享這方面的更多信息,屆時我們將控制該投資組合約 2 個月零 10 天。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Smedes Rose with Citi.
我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose。
Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst
Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst
I wanted to go back to something you mentioned in your opening remarks where you were talking about being able to put in more growth opportunities into your leases? I think you mentioned it's up 50 basis points versus 5 years ago? And as you speak to, I guess my question is, I'm wondering, does the quality or sort of the credit quality of the client vary by the ability to push through higher escalators? It sort of feels like the higher quality or higher credit would have more bargaining power on their side to resist those kinds of changes. But I'd just be interested in kind of if you could just maybe talk about that a little more.
我想回到您在開場白中提到的一些內容,您談到能夠在租賃中註入更多成長機會?我想你提到它比 5 年前上漲了 50 個基點?正如您所說,我想我的問題是,我想知道,客戶的品質或信用品質的種類是否會因推動更高自動扶梯的能力而變化?感覺更高的品質或更高的信用將有更多的議價能力來抵制這些變化。但我只是想知道你能否再多談談這個問題。
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sure. Smedes, your intuition is accurate. In the retail space here in the U.S., when you start to talk to investment-grade clients on the retail side, on retail boxes, that enter into long-term leases, et cetera. It is very difficult to get them to give you what one would consider to be market growth rates. And so it's the ones that tend to be BBB, BBB- and sub-investment grade, those are the clients that you can help drive internal growth.
當然。斯梅德斯,你的直覺是準確的。在美國的零售領域,當你開始與零售方面的投資等級客戶交談時,就零售盒子、簽訂長期租賃等事宜進行交談。讓他們給出人們認為的市場成長率是非常困難的。因此,這些客戶往往是 BBB、BBB- 和次投資級別,這些客戶是您可以幫助推動內部成長的客戶。
But let me be very clear that the 50 basis points of increase was not by going lower in the credit cycle on the retail side, but was expanding into other asset types which have a different growth profile than what retail assets do. So what were some of the steps that we took. We obviously went into industrial in a big way. Industrials tend to have, even with investment-grade clients. And at one point, I think virtually all of our clients were investment-grade on the industrial side. That's no longer the case as we've matured as a company.
但讓我非常明確的是,50個基點的成長並不是零售方面信貸週期的下降,而是擴展到其他資產類型,這些資產類型的成長狀況與零售資產不同。那我們採取了哪些步驟呢?顯然,我們大規模地進入了工業領域。工業企業往往會出現這種情況,即使是投資級客戶也是如此。在某一時刻,我認為幾乎我們所有的客戶都是工業方面的投資等級客戶。隨著我們作為一家公司的成熟,情況已不再如此。
But they too tended to give 2%, 2.5% growth. So that was one of the drivers of the change in the growth profile. The second was going into new asset types like data centers, like gaming. Those do also tend to have higher internal growth profile. And the biggest driver of all of this is really the international business where we do find a lot of growth even on the retail side with investment-grade clients.
但他們也傾向於給予 2%、2.5% 的成長。所以這是成長狀況變化的驅動因素之一。第二個是進入新的資產類型,例如資料中心,例如遊戲。這些企業也往往有較高的內部成長概況。所有這一切的最大推動力實際上是國際業務,我們確實發現即使在投資等級客戶的零售方面也有很大的成長。
So you might recall that we had -- our first transaction was a $0.5 billion sale-leaseback with one of the largest grocers in the U.K., and that had a growth profile that far superseded the profile that one can get here in the U.S. So it's a combination of all of these factors, different asset types, international, which has allowed us to grow our internal growth from approximately 1% to approximately 1.5%, and that will continue to be a major focus of our business is to how do we take this profile and grow it by another 50 basis points, perhaps more so that this reliance on external acquisitions continues to be minimized.
所以你可能還記得,我們的第一筆交易是與英國最大的雜貨商之一進行的價值 5 億美元的售後回租,其增長狀況遠遠超過了在美國可以獲得的增長狀況。所有這些因素、不同資產類型、國際化的結合,使我們能夠將內部成長率從約1% 提高到約1.5%,這將繼續成為我們業務的主要焦點,即我們如何採取行動並將其再增長50 個基點,或許更多,以便繼續最大限度地減少對外部收購的依賴。
Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst
Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst
Okay. That's super helpful. And then I just wanted to quickly ask you, I think you kind of touched on this, but you said you're going to recycle capital, more than $160 million that you did in 2023. And that's just because you probably have sort of more noncore assets identified with the Spirit acquisition. So that would -- that's what's sort of taking that number up maybe relative to where it's been historically or?
好的。這非常有幫助。然後我想快速問一下你,我想你有點談到了這一點,但你說你將回收資本,超過 2023 年的 1.6 億美元。這只是因為你可能還有更多Spirit 收購中確定的非核心資產。那麼,這就是使這個數字相對於歷史水準上升的原因嗎?
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Yes. I think one of our comments was that you should expect to see a higher number than the $116 million that we accomplished in 2023. As to the actual number, we will be in a position to share that with you during our first quarter earnings call in May.
是的。我認為我們的評論之一是,您應該會看到比我們在 2023 年實現的 1.16 億美元更高的數字。至於實際數字,我們將在 2023 年第一季財報電話會議上與您分享。可能。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from Eric Borden with BMO Capital Markets.
我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Eric Borden。
Eric Martin Borden - Senior Associate
Eric Martin Borden - Senior Associate
I'm just curious if you could talk about the potential opportunities you're seeing today as it relates to the credit lending platform. And what are the different types of tenant credit in industries that you're targeting today?
我只是好奇您能否談談您今天看到的與信貸平台相關的潛在機會。您今天的目標產業中有哪些不同類型的租戶信貸?
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
So Eric, the way we think about the credit business is how can we be a one-stop shop for our clients. Clients with whom we've done traditional sale-leaseback business, that have a need to continue to grow their real estate portfolio. And if there is a disconnect, which we kind of saw last year where what you could get in terms of a sale-leaseback in terms of yields versus playing in a much more secured position on a balance sheet and yet get 300, maybe even more basis points of yield on investments, it's a win-win for us as well as for our clients.
所以埃里克,我們對信貸業務的思考方式是如何為客戶提供一站式服務。我們曾與之進行傳統售後回租業務的客戶需要繼續擴大其房地產投資組合。如果存在脫節,我們去年就看到了這種情況,即你可以透過售後回租獲得的收益與在資產負債表上處於更安全的位置而獲得 300 甚至更多的收益相比投資收益率的基點,這對我們和我們的客戶來說都是雙贏的。
And they would much rather do business with somebody that they understand and that they have a relationship with and we can offer more of these products to them and enhance the economics on our transactions, that's really what's going to drive the credit side of our business. Having said that, it's across the board. I think we've talked about doing a credit investment in the gaming side with Blackstone. We've talked about doing an investment on one of the largest grocers in the U.K.
他們更願意與他們了解且有關係的人做生意,我們可以向他們提供更多此類產品並提高我們交易的經濟效益,這確實會推動我們業務的信貸方面。話雖如此,這是全面的。我想我們已經討論過與黑石在遊戲方面進行信貸投資。我們討論過對英國最大的雜貨店之一進行投資。
Again, these are the types of examples that you should continue to see. But we are going to be very selective in terms of who we lend to, given that, that is not a core element of our business.
同樣,這些是您應該繼續查看的範例類型。但考慮到這不是我們業務的核心要素,我們將在貸款對象方面非常有選擇性。
Eric Martin Borden - Senior Associate
Eric Martin Borden - Senior Associate
That's helpful. And then I just wanted to ask one question on the free cash flow. On the $800 million plus of expected free cash flow for 2024, does that guidance include the potential income generated from holding cash in a money market account?
這很有幫助。然後我只想問一個關於自由現金流的問題。對於 2024 年預計超過 8 億美元的自由現金流,該指引是否包括在貨幣市場帳戶中持有現金產生的潛在收入?
Jonathan Pong - Executive VP, CFO, Head of Corporate Finance & Treasurer
Jonathan Pong - Executive VP, CFO, Head of Corporate Finance & Treasurer
Eric, it includes everything. So in our AFFO guidance, first of all, all of those outcomes, if we're sitting on cash like we have been, where we're relentless and trying to get as much as we possibly can while it's there. So that flows through to AFFO. And then you have to deduct obviously, for the dividend, that in effect is the free cash flow.
埃里克,它包括一切。因此,在我們的 AFFO 指導中,首先,如果我們像以前一樣坐擁現金,我們將不懈努力並盡可能多地獲取現金,那麼所有這些結果都是如此。這樣就流向了 AFFO。然後你顯然必須扣除股息,這實際上是自由現金流。
Operator
Operator
And our next question today comes from Linda Tsai with Jefferies.
今天我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Linda Tsai。
Linda Tsai - Equity Analyst
Linda Tsai - Equity Analyst
Can you just take us through some puts and takes regarding the high and low end of your AFFO per share guidance?
您能否向我們介紹一下有關 AFFO 每股指導上限和下限的一些看跌期權和看跌期權?
Jonathan Pong - Executive VP, CFO, Head of Corporate Finance & Treasurer
Jonathan Pong - Executive VP, CFO, Head of Corporate Finance & Treasurer
Linda, so on the low end at $4.13, it's a fairly draconian scenario. You almost have to believe that short-term rates are going to continue to push higher, which we have -- we don't have a crystal ball, but crazy things have happened.
Linda,所以在 4.13 美元的低端,這是一個相當嚴酷的情況。你幾乎不得不相信短期利率將繼續走高,我們沒有水晶球,但瘋狂的事情已經發生了。
It also assumes that there's essentially a shutdown of acquisitions and so you can assume that the $2 billion is something significantly less than that. From the credit loss perspective, I think that's also something that we put in a very, very conservative number that we don't think is likely at all of happening, but it is something that is included from a bad debt perspective. There's also some certain cost elements, things like leasing commissions, things like property expenses that are not reimbursed in G&A. You always want to plan for some negative surprises there.
它還假設收購基本上已經停止,因此您可以假設 20 億美元遠低於這個數字。從信用損失的角度來看,我認為這也是我們輸入的非常非常保守的數字,我們認為根本不可能發生,但從壞帳的角度來看,它是包含在內的。還有一些特定的成本要素,例如租賃佣金、物業費用等,這些都不會在一般管理費用中得到報銷。你總是想為那裡的一些負面意外做好計劃。
And then in terms of the high end, it contemplates a scenario where the macro environment and the cost of capital environment improves, and we are able to do quite a bit more in terms of investment volume. It also suggests that spreads stay in that 150 and up range. Bad debt expense is something that is closer aligned to where we've historically been as a company, which has been close to 40 basis points of rent when you include the pandemic. Outside of the pandemic, we're probably closer to 25 basis points.
然後在高端方面,它考慮的是宏觀環境和資本成本環境改善的情況,我們在投資量方面可以做更多的事情。它還表明利差保持在 150 及以上的範圍內。壞帳費用與我們公司歷史上的情況更接近,如果算上新冠疫情,我們的租金已經接近 40 個基點。在大流行之外,我們可能更接近 25 個基點。
And it probably would assume a better outcome for some identified credits that we have in the combined portfolio that naturally, we took a very, very draconian stance on as we're building up the base case for guidance. And it also assumes that the mix of our short-term rates, whether it's in euro commercial paper, whether it's in sterling denominated revolver borrowings or whether it's in U.S. CP, which tends to comprise our (inaudible) exposure, it assumes that the mix is tilted maybe a little bit more towards the European side.
對於我們在合併投資組合中擁有的一些已確定的信用,它可能會假設有更好的結果,在我們建立指導的基本案例時,我們自然採取了非常非常嚴厲的立場。它還假設我們的短期利率組合,無論是歐元商業票據,還是以英鎊計價的左輪手槍借款,還是美國商業票據,這往往構成我們的(聽不清)風險敞口,它假設該組合可能更傾向於歐洲一側。
Right now, indicative ECP rates would be in the low 4% range. U.S. indicative rates would be in the mid-5s and then you have sterling at 6%, not on the CP side, but on the revolver side. So these are all the variables that have to hit on the low and high end in order for us to reach those scenarios.
目前,指示性 ECP 利率將在 4% 的低水準範圍內。美國的指示性利率將在 5 美元左右,然後英鎊的利率為 6%,不是 CP 方面,而是左輪手槍方面。因此,為了讓我們達到這些場景,這些都是必須影響低端和高端的所有變數。
Linda Tsai - Equity Analyst
Linda Tsai - Equity Analyst
Really helpful. And then just my second question is in your pipeline right now, what percentage is domestic versus international?
真的很有幫助。然後我的第二個問題現在正在醞釀中,國內與國際的比例是多少?
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Well, we don't have -- it's unidentified on the nondevelopment side, which was $1.2 billion. Some of it is identified, but a lot of it is discussions that we're having both here in the U.S. and in the international markets. And if you look at what we did last year, 35% of everything we did was in the international market, 65% was here locally. That could change because it is such a small number.
嗯,我們沒有——非開發方面的資金尚未確定,為 12 億美元。其中一些已經確定,但很多都是我們在美國和國際市場上進行的討論。如果你看看我們去年所做的事情,你會發現我們所做的一切有 35% 是在國際市場,65% 是在本地市場。這種情況可能會改變,因為這個數字很小。
Based on the discussions today, there could be a lot more on the international side than here, but it's too early to tell, Linda. If you look at the history, it's largely been in that 30% to 40% international and 70% to 60%, 60% to 70% U.S. And that's what we would expect under normalized situation.
根據今天的討論,國際方面可能會發生比這裡更多的事情,但現在下結論還為時過早,琳達。如果你看看歷史,主要是 30% 到 40% 的國際市場,70% 到 60%、60% 到 70% 的美國市場,這就是我們在正常化情況下所期望的。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from [Alex Fagan] with Baird.
我們的下一個問題來自 [Alex Fagan] 和貝爾德。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
So I have one on income taxes. So for the full year, the year-over-year increase in 2023 was about 15%. And the midpoint of guidance is implying about a 35% year-over-year increase in 2024. Can you provide some more color on what is driving that large increase in income taxes?
我有一份關於所得稅的資料。所以就全年而言,2023年年增幅約為15%。指導的中點意味著 2024 年同比增長約 35%。您能否提供更多資訊來說明是什麼推動了所得稅大幅增長?
Jonathan Pong - Executive VP, CFO, Head of Corporate Finance & Treasurer
Jonathan Pong - Executive VP, CFO, Head of Corporate Finance & Treasurer
Alex, this is really a function of the international business. So the way that we're taxed on that income, it's primarily in the U.K. First of all, as a U.S. domiciled company as the 100% owner of the U.K., but we are subject to some withholding taxes there. Now what we've done to combat that is we have intercompany loan interest expense and other ways that we can lower taxable income, where the effective tax rate on that NOI is around 11%.
亞歷克斯,這確實是國際業務的功能。因此,我們對該收入徵稅的方式主要是在英國。首先,作為一家在美國註冊的公司,作為英國 100% 的所有者,但我們在那裡需要繳納一些預扣稅。現在,我們為解決這個問題所做的就是透過公司間貸款利息費用和其他方式來降低應稅收入,其中 NOI 的有效稅率約為 11%。
But the growth that you see year-over-year is really just a function of the growing platform and portfolio that we have abroad, which is now north of USD 9 billion. So it shouldn't be a surprise that as the U.K. grows in particular, you see that line item for income tax start to increase year-over-year. It's something that we obviously take into account in our underwriting and investment committee it's a factor, obviously, in our long-term IRR underwriting, which is really what dictates the investment decision in most cases. And so it's a known cost that is fully built in to this business model.
但你所看到的逐年增長實際上只是我們在海外擁有的不斷增長的平台和投資組合的函數,目前已超過 90 億美元。因此,隨著英國的經濟成長,您會看到所得稅的項目開始逐年增加,這不足為奇。我們在核保和投資委員會中顯然會考慮到這一點,顯然,這是我們長期 IRR 承保中的一個因素,這實際上是大多數情況下決定投資決策的因素。因此,這是一個完全內建在該業務模型中的已知成本。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Sumit Roy for any closing remarks.
謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給蘇米特·羅伊 (Sumit Roy) 發表閉幕詞。
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Sumit Roy - President, CEO & Director
Thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to seeing many of you at upcoming investor conferences in the spring. Thanks. Bye.
感謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待在即將舉行的春季投資者會議上見到你們。謝謝。再見。
Operator
Operator
Thank you, sir. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.
謝謝你,先生。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝大家參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路,度過美好的一天。