New York Mortgage Trust Inc (NYMT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by.

早安，女士們先生們，感謝你們的支持。

And welcome to the New York Mortgage Trust fourth-quarter 2023 results conference.

歡迎參加紐約抵押信託 2023 年第四季業績會議。

(Operator Instructions) This conference is being recorded on Thursday, February 22, 2024.

（操作員說明）本次會議於 2024 年 2 月 22 日星期四錄製。

I would now like to turn the call over to Kristi Mussallem, Investor Relations.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係部門的 Kristi Mussallem。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you all for joining New York Mortgage Trust's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings call.

感謝大家參加紐約抵押信託信託公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。

A press release and supplemental financial presentation with New York Mortgage Trust's fourth-quarter 2023 results was released yesterday.

紐約抵押信託信託公司 2023 年第四季業績的新聞稿和補充財務報告於昨天發布。

Both the press release and supplemental financial presentation are available on the company's website at www.nymtrust.com. Additionally, we are hosting a live webcast of today's call, which you can access in the Events and Presentations section of the company's website.

新聞稿和補充財務報告均可在本公司網站 www.nymtrust.com 上取得。此外，我們還將對今天的電話會議進行網路直播，您可以在公司網站的「活動和演示」部分進行觀看。

At this time, management would like me to inform you that certain statements made during the conference call, which are not historical may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

目前，管理階層希望我通知您，電話會議期間所做的某些非歷史陳述可能被視為 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

Although New York Mortgage Trust believes the expectations reflected in any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that its expectations will be attained.

儘管紐約抵押信託公司認為任何前瞻性陳述中反映的預期都是基於合理的假設，但它不能保證其預期將會實現。

Factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in yesterday's press release and from time to time in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

昨天的新聞稿以及該公司不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細介紹了可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異的因素和風險。

Now, at this time, I would like to introduce Jason Serrano, Chief Executive Officer.

現在，我想介紹一下執行長賈森·塞拉諾(Jason Serrano)。

Jason, please go ahead.

傑森，請繼續。

Thanks, Kristi.

謝謝，克里斯蒂。

Welcome to New York Mortgage Trust's fourth-quarter earnings call.

歡迎參加紐約抵押信託信託公司第四季財報電話會議。

Also joining me is our President, Nick Mah; and our CFO, Kristine Nario.

與我同行的還有我們的會長 Nick Mah；和我們的財務長克里斯汀·納裡奧。

After the Fed Chair's surprised dovish commentary late in the fourth quarter, much relief was immediately provided to the market in the form of lower medium-term rates.

聯準會主席在第四季末發表了令人驚訝的鴿派評論後，中期利率下降立即為市場帶來了巨大的緩解。

However, the market gave back much as a relief after the latest CPAR trend, which was more than a two-standard-deviation event from market expectations.

然而，在最新的 CPAR 趨勢（與市場預期相差超過兩個標準差）之後，市場有所回落，這讓市場鬆了一口氣。

With these gyrations, economists continue to update models with forecast to predict the likelihood and timing of a soft landing or recession.

隨著這些波動，經濟學家繼續更新模型，以預測軟著陸或衰退的可能性和時間。

Curiously, under extreme unbalanced sector gains in the US equity markets, debate rages on about the ability of the US economy to innovate its way through the hangover of a debt-fueled expansion.

奇怪的是，在美國股市各產業收益極度不平衡的情況下，關於美國經濟是否有能力透過創新方式度過債務驅動的擴張的後遺症的爭論卻十分激烈。

Our task is to determine how to prudently allocate capital against the potential long-term investment risk posed by slowing this economy.

我們的任務是確定如何審慎配置資本，以因應經濟放緩帶來的潛在長期投資風險。

Our planning for this cycle was vastly completed last year.

我們對這個週期的規劃去年已基本完成。

Now in 2024, we look forward to building the company's earnings base given a portfolio reshaped with lower credit risk and asset duration.

現在到了 2024 年，鑑於信用風險和資產期限較低的投資組合進行了重塑，我們期待建立公司的獲利基礎。

A goal for today is to explain this evolution and why we believe our balance sheet is primed for growth through a dislocated market.

今天的目標是解釋這一演變，以及為什麼我們相信我們的資產負債表已準備好在混亂的市場中實現成長。

We believe this cycle can provide significant value to the company, not just over 2024, but the remainder of the decade.

我們相信這個週期可以為公司帶來巨大的價值，不僅是在 2024 年，也是這十年的剩餘時間。

For success, our team will need to reach deep into the multiple decades of investment experience in sourcing, valuation and asset management execution.

為了取得成功，我們的團隊需要深入研究數十年在採購、估值和資產管理執行方面的投資經驗。

We are excited about the opportunity ahead of us.

我們對擺在我們面前的機會感到興奮。

Starting with fourth quarter activity noted on page 4 of our Q4 supplemental, the company generated earnings per share of $0.35 or $0.37 on an undepreciated basis.

從我們第四季度補充資料第 4 頁所述的第四季度活動開始，該公司在未折舊的基礎上每股收益為 0.35 美元或 0.37 美元。

Adjusted book value per share ended the quarter at $12.66 or down 2.09%.

本季末調整後每股帳面價值為 12.66 美元，下降 2.09%。

After $0.20 dividend, quarterly adjusted economic return was negative 54 basis points.

扣除 0.20 美元股息後，季度調整後經濟回報為負 54 個基點。

Book value gains from our single-family portfolio was largely offset by valuation reductions to our multifamily joint venture equity portfolio.

我們的單戶投資組合的帳面價值收益在很大程度上被我們的多戶合資企業股權投資組合的估值下降所抵消。

After further dispositions, unrealized losses and reclassification of certain properties to held and used in the quarter, we have approximately $35 million remaining of capital allocated to JV multifamily equity that we intend to sell in the near term.

在本季進一步處置、未實現損失以及將某些財產重新分類為持有和使用之後，我們還有大約 3500 萬美元的剩餘資本分配給合資多戶家庭股權，我們打算在短期內出售這些股權。

Kristine and Nick will provide additional details on this point a bit later.

克里斯汀和尼克稍後將提供有關這一點的更多詳細資訊。

In setting up 2024, we enhanced our purchasing power by renewing and increasing warehouse lining capacity to $2.2 billion, providing $1.6 billion of undrawn financing as of the fourth quarter.

在設定 2024 年時，我們透過更新和增加倉庫容量至 22 億美元來增強我們的購買力，截至第四季度提供了 16 億美元的未提取融資。

Additionally, to enhance liquidity, we issued our third BPL securitization in early January, consistent with past deals issued by NYMT.

此外，為了增強流動性，我們在 1 月初發行了第三筆 BPL 證券化，與 NYMT 過去發行的交易一致。

The $225 million in securitization contains a revolver for future BPL acquisitions.

2.25 億美元的證券化包含了未來 BPL 收購的左輪手槍。

Page 8 of our supplemental shows two important graphs that help shape our market view.

我們的補充資料第 8 頁顯示了兩個重要的圖表，有助於塑造我們的市場觀點。

Starting with the US deficit spending, which may have had a role in delaying economic contraction in 2023, the CBO recently reported that the US budget deficit is expected to total $1.6 trillion in 2024.

首先從可能對延緩2023年經濟收縮起到一定作用的美國赤字支出開始，國會預算辦公室最近報告稱，預計2024年美國預算赤字總額將達到1.6兆美元。

Over the next 10 years, the budget gap will grow another $1 trillion.

未來10年，預算缺口將再增加1兆美元。

Remarkably, interest expense is expected to total over $1 trillion in this year alone.

值得注意的是，光是今年的利息支出預計就將超過 1 兆美元。

The consequence of high treasury issuance to fund US debit spending to result in stubbornly high long-term rates, even in the case Yellen continues to utilize a high allocation of short-term bills to fund the budget shortfall.

為美國借記支出提供資金而大量發行國債的後果是，即使耶倫繼續利用大量短期票據來彌補預算缺口，長期利率仍居高不下。

To meet the liquidity needs of the US government, global investment allocation to US treasuries could be diverted from other sectors and tenders within those sectors.

為了滿足美國政府的流動性需求，全球對美國國債的投資配置可能會從其他部門和這些部門內的招標中轉移。

In this scenario, the CRE space is particularly vulnerable.

在這種情況下，商業房地產領域尤其脆弱。

Fresh liquidity is required to recapitalize $2.8 trillion of debt maturing over the next four years, half of which is held by banks.

需要新的流動性來對未來四年到期的 2.8 兆美元債務進行資本重組，其中一半由銀行持有。

Banks' ability to offer CRE refinancing packages on one hand while fending off CRE loss reserves on the other is likely to further restrict lending in the market.

銀行一方面能夠提供商業房地產再融資方案，另一方面又能夠抵禦商業房地產損失準備金，這可能會進一步限制市場上的貸款。

The opportunity available for permanent capital vehicles with access to liquidity is great.

獲得流動性的永久資本工具的機會是巨大的。

For over a decade, our team has experienced generating opportunities in the multifamily bridge loan sector, coupled with extensive asset management experience in New York Mortgage Trust platform can opportunistically navigate through the CRE dislocation on multiple fronts.

十多年來，我們的團隊在多戶過橋貸款領域累積了創造機會的經驗，再加上紐約抵押貸款信託平台豐富的資產管理經驗，可以在多個方面把握機會應對商業房地產的混亂。

We see a spillover effect constraining residential loan markets as well.

我們看到溢出效應也限制了住宅貸款市場。

Bridge loans and alternative financing for single-family residential properties used for investment purposes is likely to be transformed into a new generation of lending.

用於投資目的的單戶住宅物業的過橋貸款和替代融資可能會轉變為新一代貸款。

After a $3.5 billion of residential bridge loans invested to date, our team has experienced to capitalize on the opportunity.

迄今為止，在投資了 35 億美元的住宅過橋貸款後，我們的團隊已經累積了充分利用這一機會的經驗。

As previously documented, our approach to enhance company liquidity began in March 2022.

如前所述，我們增強公司流動性的方法始於 2022 年 3 月。

We committed to curtailing investment activity, particularly in medium- to long-duration credit risk in favor of a portfolio rebalancing to provide enhanced flexibility.

我們致力於減少投資活動，特別是中長期信用創投活動，以支持投資組合再平衡，以提高靈活性。

In early 2023, we continue to prioritize increased liquidity over balance sheet growth in consideration of a potential slowing US economy and increased market credit concerns.

考慮到美國經濟可能放緩以及市場信貸擔憂加劇，2023 年初，我們將繼續優先考慮增加流動性而非資產負債表成長。

Later in 2023, we recognized a recession call was premature.

2023 年晚些時候，我們意識到判斷經濟衰退還為時過早。

Nevertheless, we remain concerned about a strain in market liquidity.

儘管如此，我們仍對市場流動性緊張感到擔憂。

Thus, we increased our portfolio exposure to Agency RMBS to stabilize portfolio interest income.

因此，我們增加了代理 RMBS 的投資組合曝險，以穩定投資組合利息收入。

We are pleased to report that company adjusted interest income increased 22% quarter over quarter to $72.5 million.

我們很高興地報告，公司調整後利息收入環比成長 22%，達到 7,250 萬美元。

At the start of the fourth quarter, we added Agency RMBS at attractive spreads.

在第四季度初，我們以有吸引力的利差添加了代理 RMBS。

We also continue to add short-duration, high-coupon residential property bridge loans reversing a sequential quarter portfolio decline.

我們也持續增加短期、高利住宅房產過橋貸款，扭轉了連續季度投資組合下降的局面。

With recent improvement to securitization market funding, we expect to meaningfully add detailed bridge loans throughout the year.

隨著最近證券化市場融資的改善，我們預計全年將大幅增加詳細的過橋貸款。

With $431 million of dry powder available, not including capital allocated to the liquid Agency RMBS sector, our balance sheet is structured for growth.

我們擁有 4.31 億美元的可用乾粉，不包括分配給流動代理 RMBS 部門的資本，我們的資產負債表結構適合成長。

We will continue to utilize a patient approach for portfolio growth.

我們將繼續採用耐心的方法來實現投資組合的成長。

We believe this path will yield superior results not only this year, but has the potential to enhance results in the years ahead as trillions of dollars of maturing commercial real estate debt is sorted out.

我們相信，這條道路不僅會在今年產生優異的成果，而且隨著數萬億美元的到期商業房地產債務得到解決，還有可能在未來幾年提高業績。

At this time, I'll pass the call over to Kristine for additional comments on our financial results and then to Nick for portfolio manager discussion.

此時，我會將電話轉接給 Kristine，徵求對我們財務表現的更多評論，然後轉接給 Nick 進行投資組合經理的討論。

Kristine?

克里斯汀？

Thank you, Jason.

謝謝你，傑森。

Good morning.

早安.

Today, I will focus my commentary on the main drivers of fourth quarter financial results.

今天，我將重點放在第四季度財務表現的主要驅動因素。

Our financial snapshot on slide 12 covers key portfolio metrics for the quarter, and slide 26 summarizes the financial results for the quarter.

我們的投影片 12 上的財務快照涵蓋了本季的關鍵投資組合指標，投影片 26 總結了本季的財務表現。

As Jason just covered, the company has undepreciated earnings per share of $0.37 in the fourth quarter as compared to undepreciated loss per share of $1.02 in the third quarter.

正如傑森剛剛報導的，該公司第四季度的未折舊每股收益為 0.37 美元，而第三季度未折舊的每股虧損為 1.02 美元。

Our earnings were impacted primarily by valuation improvements on our residential loan and bond portfolios, which resulted in $1.69 per share of unrealized gains recognized during the quarter.

我們的收益主要受到住宅貸款和債券投資組合估值改善的影響，導致本季確認的每股未實現收益為 1.69 美元。

These gains were offset by a recognition of $0.38 per share losses on certain multifamily real estate assets held by JV equity investments and disposal group held for sale due to a decrease in the estimated fair value less cost to sell the real estate assets.

這些收益被合資股權投資和持有待售處置集團持有的某些多戶房地產資產確認每股 0.38 美元的虧損所抵消，原因是估計公允價值減去出售房地產資產的成本下降。

And the reclassification of certain of our joint venture equity investments in multifamily properties from held for sale to held and used that I will discuss further.

我將進一步討論將我們對多戶住宅的某些合資企業股權投資從持有待售重新分類為持有和使用。

We experienced solid momentum in our portfolio acquisitions over the past three quarters after significantly reducing our investment activity for most of 2022, increasing our investment portfolio on a net basis by approximately $0.4 billion and $1.3 billion during the fourth quarter and the year, respectively, ending at $5.1 billion as of December 31.

在大幅減少2022 年大部分時間的投資活動後，我們在過去三個季度的投資組合收購中經歷了強勁的勢頭，第四季度和全年投資組合淨額分別增加了約4 億美元和13 億美元，截至截至 12 月 31 日為 51 億美元。

This was the primary driver of the increase in our interest income and adjusted interest income contribution for the quarter.

這是本季利息收入和調整後利息收入貢獻增加的主要驅動力。

Net interest income was relatively flat in the fourth quarter, contributing $16.8 million or $0.19 per share, while our adjusted net interest income, a non-GAAP financial measure, increased to $23.5 million from $20.7 million in the third quarter.

第四季的淨利息收入相對持平，貢獻 1,680 萬美元或每股 0.19 美元，而調整後的淨利息收入（一項非 GAAP 財務指標）從第三季的 2,070 萬美元增至 2,350 萬美元。

Our quarterly adjusted interest income increased by $13.2 million, primarily as a result of the $674 million in investments made in Agency RMBS and higher-yielding short-duration BPL bridge loans during the quarter.

我們的季度調整後利息收入增加了 1,320 萬美元，主要是由於本季對代理 RMBS 和收益率較高的短期 BPL 過橋貸款進行了 6.74 億美元的投資。

The increase in adjusted interest income was partially offset by a $10.4 million increase in adjusted interest expense due to the financing of investments made during the quarter.

調整後利息收入的增加被本季投資融資導致的調整後利息支出增加 1,040 萬美元部分抵銷。

Our interest rate swaps continue to benefit our portfolio, reducing our adjusted interest expense during the quarter.

我們的利率掉期繼續使我們的投資組合受益，減少了本季調整後的利息支出。

Overall, the operations of our consolidated multifamily joint venture properties contributed a net loss of $0.08 per share during the quarter.

總體而言，本季我們綜合多戶合資物業的營運貢獻了每股 0.08 美元的淨虧損。

Since investing in this asset class, we have disposed of six multifamily joint venture properties, four of which occurred in the second quarter of this year and one in the current quarter.

自從投資這個資產類別以來，我們已經處置了六處多戶合資物業，其中四處發生在今年第二季度，一處發生在本季度。

This resulted in a decrease in overall net loss from real estate during the quarter.

這導致本季房地產整體淨虧損減少。

As mentioned earlier, we recognized $34.4 million or $0.38 per share of losses related to the following: first, an $18.3 million or $0.20 per share loss from impairment charges and real estate due primarily to lower net operating income estimates, resulting in lower property valuations as compared to our carrying cost of multifamily properties held for sale; and second, a $16.2 million or $0.18 per share loss related to reclassification of nine multifamily properties from held for sale to held and used as of December 31, as they no longer met the criteria to be held for sale and conformity with GAAP.

如前所述，我們確認了與以下相關的3,440 萬美元或每股0.38 美元的損失：首先，減損費用和房地產造成1,830 萬美元或每股0.20 美元的損失，主要是由於淨營業收入預測較低，導致財產估值較低，與我們持有待售多戶住宅的持有成本相比；其次，截至12 月31 日，九個多戶住宅從持有待售重新分類為持有和使用，導致1620 萬美元或每股0.18 美元的損失，因為它們不再符合持有待售的標準和GAAP 的要求。

The reclassification of the real estate assets from held for sale to held and used was at the lower of fair value or carrying amount before the real estate assets were classified as held for sale.

房地產資產由持有待售重分類為持有並使用，依房地產資產分類為持有待售前的公允價值與帳面價值孰低決定。

Adjusted for depreciation and amortization expense that would have been recognized had the real estate assets been continuously classified as held and used.

根據如果房地產資產持續分類為持有和使用則應確認的折舊和攤銷費用進行調整。

This change to our plan of sale on these JV investments in multifamily properties was due to unfavorable market conditions and the lack of transactional activity in the multifamily market that negatively impacted our ability to secure a reasonable buyer and completely exit our investment in these giant ventures.

我們對這些多戶型房產合資投資的銷售計劃的改變是由於不利的市場條件以及多戶型市場缺乏交易活動，這對我們找到合理買家並完全退出對這些大型企業投資的能力產生了負面影響。

We continue to market for sale our JV equity investments in five multifamily properties but we can provide no assurance of the timing or success of our ultimate exit from these investments.

我們繼續出售我們對五個多戶住宅的合資股權投資，但我們無法保證我們最終退出這些投資的時間或成功。

As mentioned earlier, fair value changes related to our investment portfolio continued to have significant impact on our earnings.

如前所述，與我們的投資組合相關的公平價值變動持續對我們的收益產生重大影響。

During the quarter, we recognized $152.9 million or $1.69 per share of unrealized gains due to higher asset prices on our residential loan and bond portfolios.

本季度，由於住宅貸款和債券投資組合的資產價格上漲，我們確認了 1.529 億美元或每股 1.69 美元的未實現收益。

These gains were partially offset by a $0.71 per share in losses recognized in our derivative instruments, primarily consisting of interest rate swaps and caps and $0.27 per share in realized losses related to the sale of non-Agency RMBS and CMBS and losses incurred on foreclosed properties during the quarter.

這些收益被衍生性工具中確認的每股0.71 美元的損失（主要包括利率掉期和利率上限）以及與出售非機構RMBS 和CMBS 相關的每股0.27 美元的已實現損失以及止贖財產產生的損失部分抵銷。

We had total G&A expenses of $11.7 million, which remained relatively flat as compared to the third quarter.

我們的一般管理費用總額為 1,170 萬美元，與第三季相比保持相對穩定。

We had portfolio operating expenses of $6.1 million, which increased primarily due to legal fees incurred related to the asset management of our BPL bridge portfolio.

我們的投資組合營運費用為 610 萬美元，增加的主要原因是與 BPL 橋投資組合的資產管理相關的法律費用。

Adjusted book value per share ended at $12.66, down 2% from September 30.

調整後每股帳面價值截至 12.66 美元，較 9 月 30 日下降 2%。

The main drivers of our adjusted book value change was a $0.35 in basic income per share, a reduction of $0.20 per share related to our declared dividend; a reduction of $0.07 per share, primarily due to the removal of cumulative depreciation and amortization add-back attributable to consolidated multifamily properties for which impairment was recognized during the quarter; and a negative $0.39 per share change in estimated fair value of our liabilities.

調整後帳面價值變化的主要驅動因素是每股基本收入減少 0.35 美元，與我們宣布的股息相關的每股減少 0.20 美元；每股減少 0.07 美元，主要是由於取消了本季確認減損的合併多戶房產的累計折舊和攤銷加回；我們負債的估計公允價值每股負 0.39 美元。

As of quarter end, the company's recourse leverage ratio and portfolio recourse leverage ratio increased to 1.6x and 1.5x, respectively, from 1.3x and 1.2x, respectively, as of September 30.

截至季末，該公司的追索槓桿率和投資組合追索槓桿率分別從截至9月30日的1.3倍和1.2倍增至1.6倍和1.5倍。

While our financing leverage remains low relative to historic levels, we would expect our leverage to move higher as we expand our holdings of highly liquid Agency RMBS.

儘管我們的融資槓桿率相對於歷史水準仍然較低，但我們預計，隨著我們擴大高流動性代理 RMBS 的持有量，我們的槓桿率將會上升。

Our portfolio recourse leverage on our credit book is up slightly at 0.4x when compared to 0.3x for the previous quarter.

與上一季的 0.3 倍相比，我們信用帳簿上的投資組合追索槓桿略有上升，達到 0.4 倍。

Currently, 58% of our debt is subject to mark-to-market margin calls, of which 45% is collateralized by Agency RMBS and 13% collateralized by residential credit assets.

目前，我們 58% 的債務需要按市值計價追加保證金，其中 45% 由機構 RMBS 抵押，13% 由住宅信貸資產抵押。

The remaining 42% of our debt as of December 31 has no exposure to collateral repricing by our counterparties.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們剩餘 42% 的債務不存在交易對手抵押品重新定價的風險。

And as Jason mentioned earlier, we completed our revolving business purpose loan securitization last month.

正如傑森之前提到的，我們上個月完成了循環商業目的貸款證券化。

Consequently, this securitization reduced debt subject to mark-to-market risk from 58% to 55% and our recourse leverage ratio and portfolio recourse leverage ratio to 1.5x and 1.4x, respectively.

因此，這種證券化將受市值計價風險的債務從 58% 降低至 55%，我們的追索槓桿率和投資組合追索槓桿率分別降至 1.5 倍和 1.4 倍。

We paid a $0.20 per common share dividend down from $0.30 in the prior quarter.

我們支付的每股普通股股息為 0.20 美元，低於上一季的 0.30 美元。

We continue to evaluate our dividend policy each quarter and look at the 12- to 18-month projection of not only our net interest income, but also realized capital gains that can be generated from our investment portfolio.

我們每季都會繼續評估我們的股利政策，不僅關注我們的淨利息收入，而且還關注我們的投資組合可產生的已實現資本利得的 12 至 18 個月預測。

We remain committed to maintaining an attractive current yield for our shareholders, and we believe that the current dividend provides excess liquidity for reinvestment in a more attractively priced market.

我們仍然致力於為股東維持有吸引力的當前收益率，並且我們相信當前股息為價格更具吸引力的市場的再投資提供了過剩的流動性。

I will now turn it over to Nick to go over the market and strategy update.

我現在將把它交給尼克來檢查市場和策略更新。

Nick?

缺口？

Thanks, Kristine.

謝謝，克里斯汀。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

In the quarter, we witnessed a key moment in the shift of the market sentiment.

本季度，我們見證了市場情緒轉變的關鍵時刻。

This follows the pivot in the Fed's stance on future monetary policy.

在此之前，聯準會對未來貨幣政策的立場發生了轉變。

Through Q4, we experienced dramatic moves in interest rates with five-year treasuries trending up to 5% in October then sharply reversing course to end the year at 3.9%.

在整個第四季度，我們經歷了利率的劇烈波動，10 月五年期公債利率上升至 5%，然後急劇逆轉，年底降至 3.9%。

The Fed's restricted policy has made further inroads in subduing inflation.

聯準會的限制性政策在抑制通膨方面取得了進一步的進展。

With economic data in the quarter, pointing to the continued moderation of inflationary pressures.

從本季經濟數據來看，通膨壓力持續緩和。

Fed Chair Powell's remarks in December further highlighted that the FOMC is now taking a more balanced approach to tackling inflation and managing economic risks.

聯準會主席鮑威爾12月的演講進一步強調，聯邦公開市場委員會現在正在採取更平衡的方法來應對通膨和管理經濟風險。

The market reacted positively with tightening spreads across asset classes alongside a falling interest rate curve.

市場反應積極，資產類別利差收緊，利率曲線下降。

Over the course of the last year, NYMT has refocused on growing the balance sheet to achieve more consistent earnings.

去年，NYMT 重新將重點放在擴大資產負債表上，以實現更穩定的盈利。

This was a shift in strategy given several prior quarters of minimal investment activity.

鑑於前幾季的投資活動很少，這是策略的轉變。

We were initially concerned of heightened credit risks under the Fed's restrictive interest rate regime.

我們最初擔心聯準會限制性利率制度下的信貸風險加劇。

Through 2023, we grew our portfolio such that we can generate more consistent income while also maintaining liquidity for future opportunities.

到 2023 年，我們擴大了投資組合，以便能夠產生更穩定的收入，同時為未來的機會保持流動性。

Over the quarter, we invested in $674 million of assets, primarily concentrated in $416 million of Agency RMBS and $232 million of BPL bridge loans.

本季度，我們投資了 6.74 億美元的資產，主要集中在 4.16 億美元的代理 RMBS 和 2.32 億美元的 BPL 過橋貸款。

The pace of Agency RMBS purchases has slowed from last quarter's $946 million as we curbed our buying in response to the decline in yields in the latter half of the quarter.

由於我們為應對本季後半段收益率下降而限制了購買，因此機構 RMBS 的購買速度較上季度的 9.46 億美元放緩。

Current coupon mortgage spreads to interpolate a 5- and 10-year treasuries started the quarter in the high 170s and reached a quarterly peak in October in the high 180s, then trended down to the end of the year in the high 130s.

插入5 年期和10 年期國債的當前息票抵押貸款利差在本季度開始時處於170 多秒的高位，並於10 月份達到180 多位高位的季度峰值，然後呈下降趨勢，到年底時為130 多位高位。

77% of our agency purchases in the quarter was prior to the near-term peak of rates on October 19.

本季我們 77% 的代理採購發生在 10 月 19 日近期價格高峰之前。

In BPL bridge, we have made further progress to boost the volume of asset acquisitions with three quarters of consecutive growth.

BPL橋樑方面，我們在資產收購量方面取得進一步進展，資產收購量連續三個季度成長。

In 2023, we have grown our Agency RMBS book from 0 to almost $2 billion of market value.

到 2023 年，我們的代理 RMBS 帳面價值從 0 成長到近 20 億美元。

We took advantage of the historically wide spreads in the sector that persisted throughout the year, driven by high interest rate volatility and tepid incremental demand from banks and money managers.

我們利用了該行業全年持續存在的歷史性寬幅利差，這是由高利率波動以及銀行和基金管理公司不溫不火的增量需求所推動的。

In particular, we sought to build the portfolio of higher coupon specified pools under this favorable return environment.

特別是，我們尋求在這種有利的回報環境下建立更高息票指定池的投資組合。

Quarter-over-quarter, the Agency RMBS portfolio grew by approximately 30% on a market value basis.

與上一季相比，該機構的 RMBS 投資組合按市值計算增長了約 30%。

The average coupon of our spec pools continues to rise, increasing from 5.73% to 5.85% this quarter, driven by purchases primarily concentrated in 6.5% coupon bonds.

在主要集中於 6.5% 息票債券的購買推動下，我們投機池的平均息票繼續上升，本季從 5.73% 上升至 5.85%。

Leverage in the strategy declined to 6.7x as of year-end, down from 8.5x in the prior quarter.

截至年底，該策略的槓桿率從上一季的 8.5 倍降至 6.7 倍。

The declining leverage ratio was due to price increases in the Agency bonds amid lower yields and the slowdown of acquisitions in the latter half of the quarter.

槓桿率下降的原因是，在殖利率下降和本季後半段收購放緩的情況下，代理債券價格上漲。

Given the available capital and the ability to scale up leverage in the portfolio, we still have capacity to meaningfully expand our Agency RMBS exposure.

鑑於可用資本和擴大投資組合槓桿的能力，我們仍然有能力有意義地擴大我們的代理 RMBS 曝險。

We look to increase the portfolio's allocation to agencies under the current market environment with high spreads still presenting a compelling risk-adjusted return.

我們希望在當前市場環境下增加投資組合對機構的配置，高利差仍能帶來令人信服的風險調整報酬。

Additionally, the asset class has also an added benefit of having outperformed in periods of economic downturn.

此外，該資產類別還具有在經濟低迷時期表現優於大盤的額外優勢。

BPL Bridge is a core asset class for us due to its high-return and short-tenor profile.

BPL Bridge 因其高回報和短期特徵而成為我們的核心資產類別。

The short tenor of the portfolio allows for flexibility to redeploy the return capital into BPL bridge or other investments depending on market conditions.

投資組合的短期期限允許根據市場條件靈活地將回報資本重新部署到 BPL 橋或其他投資。

From a credit perspective, the BPL bridge portfolio continues to perform to expectations.

從信用角度來看，BPL 橋樑投資組合的表現持續符合預期。

Over the past few quarters, the level of delinquency in BPL bridge has moderated to 20%.

過去幾個季度，BPL 橋的拖欠率已降至 20%。

And life-to-date cumulative losses in the strategy is under 10 basis points.

該策略迄今為止的累計損失低於 10 個基點。

In the past, the shrinking BPL bridge portfolio balance due to our reduction in investment activity, contributed to the high delinquency numbers on a percentage basis.

過去，由於我們投資活動的減少，BPL 橋投資組合餘額不斷縮小，導致以百分比計算的高拖欠率。

Under the tightening acquisition pace where the portfolio is growing quarter over quarter, this delinquency effect should be muted.

在收購步伐收緊且投資組合逐季成長的情況下，這種拖欠影響應該會減弱。

For our current acquisition pipeline, we note that the credit profile of new purchases has improved versus the existing portfolio.

對於我們目前的收購管道，我們注意到新收購的信用狀況比現有投資組合有所改善。

In particular, we try to avoid niche subsectors within BPL bridge such as ground-up construction or small-balance multifamily.

特別是，我們盡量避免 BPL 橋內的利基子行業，例如地面建築或小平衡多戶住宅。

These are segments of the market that have experienced constraints given the retrenchment of regional bank lending and therefore, an increased risk of future credit dislocation.

由於區域銀行貸款緊縮，這些市場領域受到了限制，因此未來信貸混亂的風險增加。

Furthermore, both ground-up and small balance multifamily present increased default management challenges if delinquencies rise.

此外，如果拖欠率上升，自建式多戶住宅和小型平衡多戶住宅都會面臨更大的違約管理挑戰。

Our purchases in the quarter consists of only 3% ground-up construction loans versus the portfolio average of 13%.

我們本季的購買量僅包括 3% 的基礎建設貸款，而投資組合的平均比例為 13%。

We did not purchase any multifamily-backed bridge loans in Q4.

我們在第四季度沒有購買任何多戶家庭支持的過橋貸款。

The credit profile of our purchases, both historically and today, remain strong, with borrower credit scores above 700 FICO, loan to after-repair value ratios, or LTARVs, in the mid-60s and loan-to-cost ratios, or LTCs, in the low 70s.

我們購買的信用狀況，無論是歷史上還是現在，都保持強勁，借款人信用評分超過 700 FICO，貸款與修復後價值比率 (LTARV) 在 60 年代中期，貸款成本比率 (LTC)在 70 年代初期。

We aim to continue growing our purchases in BPL bridge in the coming quarters.

我們的目標是在未來幾季繼續增加 BPL 橋的採購量。

In January 2024, NYMT also executed on its third BPL bridge securitization.

2024 年 1 月，NYMT 也執行了第三次 BPL 橋樑證券化。

This two-year revolving structure will be beneficial for the funding of existing and future purchases of BPL bridge.

這種為期兩年的循環結構將有利於為 BPL 橋樑的現有和未來採購提供資金。

On the heels of tightening rates and spreads in the fourth quarter, there has been a flurry of activity in the non-agency securitization market.

在第四季利率和利差收緊之後，非機構證券化市場出現了一系列活動。

Issuers are trying to capitalize on better deal execution than what was available for most of 2023.

發行人正試圖利用比 2023 年大部分時間更好的交易執行。

An additional noteworthy point is that the first-ever investment-grade rated bridge securitization came to market in 2024, which will be an important evolution in the structure to fund these assets.

另外值得注意的一點是，首個投資等級過橋證券化將於 2024 年上市，這將是這些資產融資結構的重要演進。

Rated transactions should provide better financing costs relative to the historical unrated structures.

相對於歷史上的未評級結構，評級交易應提供更好的融資成本。

NYMT's BPL bridge purchase program fits very well with the tire credit box necessary for a rated transaction.

NYMT 的 BPL 過橋購買計劃非常適合評級交易所需的輪胎信用箱。

Rated deals have more punitive structural treatment of ground-up construction due to its correlation with higher rehab requirements.

由於與更高的修復要求相關，評級交易對地面建築進行了更具懲罰性的結構處理。

It is also restrictive on multifamily bridge loans.

它也對多戶過橋貸款有限制。

As I alluded to before, we have already been reducing exposure to these loans already.

正如我之前提到的，我們已經減少了這些貸款的曝險。

We plan to be an issuer of these rated deals in the future.

我們計劃將來成為這些評級交易的發行人。

On multifamily mezzanine lending, 2023 continues the historical strong performance of this asset class.

在多戶夾層貸款方面，2023 年該資產類別將延續歷史上的強勁表現。

The payoff rate of the portfolio has accelerated in 2023 at 37% compared to 32% in 2022.

投資組合的回報率在 2023 年加快至 37%，而 2022 年為 32%。

This is also higher than the historical annual payoff rate of 28%.

這也高於28%的歷史年報酬率。

The expectation for the portfolio is that this payoff rate should continue to remain high, primarily driven by the seasoning of the portfolio at 29 months and the 83% LTV at origination.

對該投資組合的預期是，該回報率應繼續保持較高水平，這主要是由於該投資組合在 29 個月時的老化以及初始時 83% 的 LTV。

Occupancy rates of the portfolio today have also been strong at 90%.

目前該投資組合的入住率也高達 90%。

Given that we significantly reduced our purchases since 2022, our portfolio has more years of locked-in rental growth at lower property acquisition entry points.

鑑於我們自 2022 年以來大幅減少了購買量，因此我們的投資組合可以在較低的房地產收購切入點上鎖定租金增長多年。

This translates to additional equity buffer for the borrower and further alignment with NYMT's mezzanine position.

這意味著為借款人提供了額外的股權緩衝，並進一步與 NYMT 的夾層地位保持一致。

We believe that the sponsors in our portfolio are in a position to monetize these assets to date, fueling paydowns in the portfolio.

我們相信，迄今為止，我們投資組合中的發起人有能力將這些資產貨幣化，從而推動投資組合的回報。

Contrast this with later vintage originations in the market, we have limited exposure to originations from 2022 onwards as Fed rate increases took center stage.

與市場上較晚年份的起源相比，隨著聯準會升息成為焦點，我們對 2022 年以後的起源的曝險有限。

There has been upward pressure on cap rates and market shifts causing certain pro forma projections on NOI to be unachievable.

上限利率和市場變化存在上行壓力，導致 NOI 的某些備考預測無法實現。

On multifamily JV equity, we do not expect any future equity funding of new positions within this asset class as our efforts are focused on the asset management and sale of the existing portfolio.

對於多戶型合資企業股權，我們預計未來不會對該資產類別中的新部位進行任何股權融資，因為我們的工作重點是資產管理和現有投資組合的銷售。

We have made progress on the wind down of these assets that began in Q3 of 2022.

我們從 2022 年第三季開始逐步減少這些資產，並取得了進展。

So far, we have completed the sale or resolution of 6 of the original 20 properties, leaving 14 remaining properties as of the end of the year.

到目前為止，我們已經完成了原有20處房產中6處的出售或處置，截至年底還剩下14處房產。

In the quarter, as Kristine noted, we have moved 9 of the remaining 14 assets to held and used.

正如 Kristine 所指出的，本季我們已將剩餘 14 項資產中的 9 項轉為持有和使用。

The market for the sale of these properties have become more challenging as the pending forward supply in new multifamily properties has contributed to slowing rent growth.

由於新多戶住宅的遠期供應量導致租金成長放緩，這些房產的銷售市場變得更具挑戰性。

Increased operating expenses, taxes and insurance have also impacted overall property NOI.

營運費用、稅金和保險的增加也影響了整體財產 NOI。

These factors, along with the interest rate volatility and an uncertain path for future cap rates result in the wider bid-ask spread in the market, we find it more productive for our asset management team to complete any beneficial value-add programs on these properties to maintain or bolster occupancy for an improved NOI profile in the future.

這些因素，加上利率波動和未來資本化率的不確定路徑，導致市場買賣價差擴大，我們發現我們的資產管理團隊在這些房產上完成任何有益的增值計劃更有成效維持或提高入住率，從而改善未來的NOI 狀況。

I will now turn the call back to Jason.

我現在將把電話轉回給傑森。

Thanks, Nick.

謝謝，尼克。

The company is focused on opportunities in a market undergoing a structural landscape change.

該公司專注於正在經歷結構性格局變化的市場機會。

Balance sheet growth is expected to continue with agency securities, short-term bridge loans and structured derivatives.

代理證券、短期過橋貸款和結構性衍生性商品預計資產負債表將持續成長。

In this new environment, success may be achieved through organic creation liquidity, tactical asset management and prudent liability management.

在這種新環境下，可以透過有機創造流動性、戰術性資產管理和審慎負債管理來取得成功。

At this time, I'd like to open the call for questions.

此時，我想打開提問環節。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Jason Weaver, Jones Trading.

（操作員說明）Jason Weaver，Jones Trading。

So I was wondering how you look at the effective trade-off in terms of allocating new capital to Agency versus BPL bridge and what the relative ROEs are, is that really just a timing issue alone, given that allocating to Agency is just a lot more liquid market in the immediate term?

因此，我想知道您如何看待向 Agency 與 BPL 橋分配新資本以及相對 ROE 方面的有效權衡，這實際上只是一個時間問題，因為分配給 Agency 的資本要多得多。

Yes.

是的。

This is -- thanks for the question, Jason.

這是——謝謝你的提問，傑森。

This is Nick.

這是尼克。

Yes, a big part of it is the fact that agencies are liquid, you're seeing faster growth in that portfolio because we can deploy capital much quicker.

是的，其中很大一部分原因是機構具有流動性，您會看到該投資組合的成長更快，因為我​​們可以更快地部署資本。

But the goal is to have our BPL bridge to continue to grow.

但我們的目標是讓我們的 BPL 橋樑繼續發展。

In terms of ROEs, we do see, based on our leverage ratios and our agency portfolio, somewhere in the mid-teens type return.

就股本回報率而言，根據我們的槓桿率和代理投資組合，我們確實看到回報率處於中位數左右。

And then in our BPL bridge, we see under a securitization profile, somewhere in the high-teens type return.

然後在我們的 BPL 橋中，我們在證券化概況下看到了高青少年類型的回報。

So at the margin from a return perspective, we do prefer BPL bridge.

因此，從回報角度來看，我們確實更喜歡 BPL 橋接器。

But because of our, as I mentioned earlier, a tighter credit box, it does take a little bit longer to procure.

但正如我之前提到的，由於我們的信用額度收緊，採購確實需要更長的時間。

Got you.

明白你了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And focusing a little bit more on the agency side.

並更多地關注代理方面。

I was curious how you think about the convexity risk in some of those higher-coupon assets, you need softer monetary policy, what's the likely reaction in prepayments on some of those are you thinking?

我很好奇您如何看待某些高票面資產的凸性風險，您需要更寬鬆的貨幣政策，您認為其中一些資產的預付款可能會產生什麼反應？

Yes.

是的。

I mean we do understand that there is a trade-off between the convexity and the carry profile that we are targeting.

我的意思是，我們確實明白，我們目標的凸度和利差之間存在著權衡。

Our general stance is that rates -- and we have started to see that at the beginning of this year will potentially stay higher for longer.

我們的總體立場是，今年年初，我們已經開始看到利率可能會在更長時間內保持在較高水準。

So we don't mind participating in that particular part of the coupon stack.

所以我們不介意參與優惠券堆疊的特定部分。

Furthermore, there is also -- we do have a relatively large credit portfolio.

此外，我們確實擁有相對較大的信貸組合。

And our credit portfolio that was accumulating in -- at a time period where rates were lower, has a different convexity profile where -- with lower coupons in that particular sector.

我們的信貸投資組合在利率較低的時期積累，具有不同的凸度特徵，該特定部門的票面利率較低。

So we find that this is a nice balance for both.

所以我們發現這對兩者來說都是一個很好的平衡。

So a lot of the BPL bridge that we're buying has higher coupon, higher return.

所以我們買的很多BPL橋有更高的優惠券、更高的回報。

And a lot of the agencies also have that high care profile at the expense of some convexity risk, but we do believe looking at the portfolio as a whole is relatively balanced.

許多機構也以犧牲一些凸性風險為代價而擁有如此高的關注度，但我們確實認為從整體上看投資組合是相對平衡的。

That's helpful color.

這是有用的顏色。

And just one more.

還有一件事。

Taking -- I appreciate your comments on the remaining multifamily JV equity that you have on board.

考慮—我感謝您對您所擁有的剩餘多戶合資企業股權的評論。

I think it's -- and just to hone in, I believe it's 14 assets at about $35 million in equity or so about.

我認為——只是為了磨練，我相信它有 14 項資產，股本約為 3500 萬美元左右。

Have you actively been marketing those properties?

您是否積極行銷這些房產？

And have you received any bids but they just really are at haircuts that are not attractive to you?

您是否收到任何出價，但他們的理髮確實對您沒有吸引力？

Or is it not at that stage yet?

或者說還沒到那個階段？

I'll take that; Jason Serrano.

我會接受的；賈森·塞拉諾.

The five assets that we have marketed is we have not received bids directly on those assets just yet.

我們已經銷售的五種資產目前還沒有直接收到這些資產的出價。

Two of those -- and I'm talking about in this year, two of those were in a process last year where the sponsor walked away from a deposit that we held back.

其中兩個——我說的是今年，其中兩個去年正在處理中，贊助商放棄了我們扣留的押金。

And it was due to changes in their funding requirements and rates that moved on then during that period and seemed like that buyer wasn't hedged.

這是由於他們的融資需求和利率在該時期發生了變化，而且買家似乎沒有受到對沖。

So in that case, we did have very attractive pricing there.

所以在這種情況下，我們確實有非常有吸引力的價格。

And we look to basically go back out to the market given that the funding costs have alleviated somewhat and are back to the kind of levels where this -- these buyers were engaged.

鑑於融資成本有所緩解並回到了這些買家參與的水平，我們希望基本上回到市場。

So that's just two of the five.

所以這只是五個中的兩個。

And again, overall, it's a very small portfolio.

總的來說，這是一個非常小的投資組合。

And the assets we chose to put out to the market are assets that we've completed, our value-add program, where we believe that the go-forward NOI has been stabilized, and therefore, the bids will be attractive for us to execute.

我們選擇投放市場的資產是我們已經完成的資產，我們的增值計劃，我們相信未來的 NOI 已經穩定，因此，出價對我們執行將具有吸引力。

And just to further round up the question, we have nine assets which are not part of the sale, our disposable group and our held and used.

為了進一步解決這個問題，我們有九項資產不屬於出售的一部分，我們的可處置資產以及我們持有和使用的資產。

And those are assets that we are still in the process of completing our value-added program and there's a bit of a J curve that's still left in those assets.

這些是我們仍在完成增值計劃的過程中的資產，這些資產中仍然殘留著一些 J 曲線。

We have looked at whether or not that should be part of that disposal group.

我們已經研究過它是否應該成為該處置組的一部分。

But the answer is given that the cash flows are increasing, NOI is increasing in those assets as those value-add program CapEx programs have achieved higher rents and entails more difficult funding market, we believe it's better to hold those assets on more of a medium- to longer-term basis and benefit from the NOI growth and property valuation increase.

但答案是，現金流正在增加，這些資產的NOI 正在增加，因為這些增值計劃資本支出計劃已經實現了更高的租金，並導致融資市場變得更加困難，我們認為最好將這些資產持有在更多的媒介上- 從長期來看，並受益於 NOI 增長和房地產估值增加。

So that's kind of the split out.

這就是一種分裂。

And on those nine, we have not received bids directly on those assets.

對於這九個資產，我們還沒有直接收到這些資產的出價。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯·喬治，KBW。

One more on the Agency MBS.

另一篇關於該機構 MBS 的文章。

Over the -- in 2024, how big a piece of your -- or your assets or equity, do you think Agency MBS could become?

到 2024 年，您認為 Agency MBS 會在您的資產或股權中佔據多大？

Thanks for your question.

謝謝你的提問。

We -- a lot of it is market dependent.

我們——其中很多都取決於市場。

Right now, the spreads are around 160 -- in the low 160s in terms of where we were -- what we're seeing today.

目前，價差約為 160，就我們今天所看到的情況而言，價差在 160 左右。

A lot of the assets that we were purchasing in the earlier half of the last quarter was higher than that.

我們上季前半段購買的許多資產都高於這個數字。

So from -- at this juncture, we do believe that the pace of Agency RMBS procurement, given market conditions will be a little bit slower.

因此，在這個時刻，我們確實相信，考慮到市場狀況，機構 RMBS 採購的步伐將會稍慢一些。

But with that said, we do have available capacity to leg into this.

但話雖如此，我們確實有能力涉足這一領域。

I would say that we will still have a relatively consistent pipeline in terms of purchases from quarter over quarter, but the pace will not be as quick as -- as robust as we have seen in Q3 and Q4.

我想說的是，我們在季度與季度之間的採購方面仍將保持相對穩定的管道，但步伐不會像第三季和第四季那麼快。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then switching over to the JV, the multifamily portfolio.

然後切換到合資企業，即多戶型投資組合。

What's the kind of the current return on the equity that's in that mix?

該組合目前的股本報酬率是多少？

And I mean if you retain that or the other nine properties, is the return there really coming from sort of the increase in the value of that over time?

我的意思是，如果您保留該房產或其他九個房產，那麼那裡的回報真的來自於隨著時間的推移而增加的價值嗎？

Or just trying to think about how that impacts the overall ROE of the balance sheet.

或者只是想一下這如何影響資產負債表的整體股本報酬率。

Yes.

是的。

So on the JV equity book, the $57 million that we have exposed on our held for -- the held and used group and $35 million in JV equity, I would say, overall, not materially significant to our earnings growth given the size that that's remaining.

因此，在合資企業股權帳簿上，我們持有的5700 萬美元——持有和使用的集團以及3500 萬美元的合資企業股權，我想說，總的來說，考慮到其規模，這對我們的獲利成長並不具有重大意義。

These assets were bought in the 5% cap rate and levered.

這些資產是以 5% 的上限利率購買的，並使用槓桿。

And go forward, we believe that a lot of the return attribution from here is going to be on property valuation increase as the NOI builds.

展望未來，我們相信，隨著 NOI 的建立，這裡的大部分回報將來自房地產估值的增加。

I mean we -- when I talk about the value-add program, it's more than just re-leasing activity and getting a better sequential quarter -- year-over-year rent increase.

我的意思是，當我談論增值計劃時，它不僅僅是重新租賃活動和獲得更好的連續季度租金同比增長。

It's also our occupancy.

這也是我們的佔用。

Many of the units had to be unoccupied as the value-add program was implemented and then putting tenants back in really materially increases the value of the property.

由於增值計劃的實施，許多單位不得不閒置，然後讓租戶重新入住，確實大大增加了房產的價值。

So we expect go forward from here, the cash flows of the property, obviously in kind of the mid-single-digits range, but evaluation is what we're focused on as it relates to that value-add and we call it the J curve in this program.

因此，我們預計從這裡開始，財產的現金流量顯然會處於中等個位數範圍，但評估是我們關注的重點，因為它與增值相關，我們稱之為 J該程序中的曲線。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then actually just one more.

然後其實就只剩下一個了。

In terms of the portfolio as it is right now, going into '24, what's kind of the economic return do you think that it can generate?

就目前的投資組合而言，進入24年，您認為它可以產生什麼樣的經濟回報？

The portfolio -- are you speaking specifically about the multifamily JV equity or just portfolio...

投資組合—您是專門談論多戶型合資企業股權還是只是投資組合...

No.

不。

Actually, the whole balance sheet, the ROE or just including expenses, just kind of how do you think it's positioned now in terms of what it can generate?

實際上，整個資產負債表、股本回報率或僅包括費用，您認為它現在在能夠產生什麼方面處於什麼位置？

We estimate about mid-teens return.

我們估計大約有十幾歲的回報。

Yes.

是的。

I'll add to that.

我會補充一點。

So Nick just highlighted the return attribution per asset class.

所以尼克只是強調了每個資產類別的報酬歸因。

One of the biggest factors for us on earnings growth is the deployment of our dry powder that we've highlighted at $431 million at the end of Q4, which also does not include the agency capital allocation that we've included.

對我們來說，獲利成長的最大因素之一是我們的乾粉部署，我們在第四季末強調了該乾粉的部署為 4.31 億美元，這也不包括我們所包含的機構資本分配。

And with the way we're looking at agencies, we're very opportunistic on that asset class.

從我們看待代理商的方式來看，我們對該資產類別非常投機。

As Nick mentioned, the pace will change depending on what the market is providing us on entry points.

正如尼克所提到的，步伐將根據市場為我們提供的切入點而變化。

But overall, we see that as a means to deploy capital and to stabilize our interest earnings, which we started in March 2023.

但總的來說，我們認為這是部署資本和穩定利息收入的一種手段，我們在 2023 年 3 月開始這樣做。

But overall, we're looking for further -- look for dislocation in this market and more attractive entry points, particularly in the credit space where risk-adjusted returns, we believe, are not as attractive as will be in the future.

但總體而言，我們正在尋找進一步的機會——尋找這個市場的錯位和更具吸引力的切入點，特別是在信貸領域，我們認為，風險調整後的回報並不像未來那麼有吸引力。

And therefore, these are assets where looking in the credit space, anywhere from five- to seven-year durations, you only have an opportunity to buy it once and then you're dealing with asset management and go-forward returns from there.

因此，這些資產在信貸空間中，期限從五年到七年不等，你只有機會購買一次，然後你就可以處理資產管理和未來的回報。

So we're -- we want to be very patient in our deployment schedule as it relates to those longer-duration assets.

因此，我們希望在部署計劃中保持非常耐心，因為它與那些持續時間較長的資產有關。

We -- as I highlighted in my earlier comments, we do see about $2.8 trillion of CRE debt that's going to be coming due in the next four years.

正如我在先前的評論中所強調的那樣，我們確實看到大約 2.8 兆美元的 CRE 債務將在未來四年內到期。

That's about $0.5 billion per year.

這相當於每年約 5 億美元。

And banks are obviously very exposed to that with 50% of the exposure.

銀行顯然對此風險敞口非常大，敞口比例為 50%。

And with that said, liquidity, we believe, will be strained as the CRE debt is sorted out.

話雖如此，我們認為，隨著商業房地產債務的解決，流動性將會緊張。

So overall, we do see more attractive opportunities in the future, highlighting our more conservative stance on deployment and asset allocation.

因此總體而言，我們確實在未來看到了更多有吸引力的機會，凸顯了我們在部署和資產配置方面更保守的立場。

Matthew Howlett, B. Riley.

馬修·豪利特，B.萊利。

Jason, how do you -- man, I love the slide on the CRE market, the maturities coming up and what's being held by the banks, and all that stuff is probably underwater.

傑森，你怎麼樣——夥計，我喜歡商業房地產市場的下滑，即將到期的債券以及銀行持有的東西，所有這些東西可能都在水下。

How do you envision NYMT participating in that?

您如何看待 NYMT 參與其中？

Are you going to be buying sort of distressed paper out there?

您打算在那裡購買某種破舊的紙張嗎？

Will you be providing rescue capital?

您會提供救援資金嗎？

How do you envision yields on levered deals?

您如何看待槓桿交易的報酬率？

Are we talking mid-teens?

我們在談論青少年嗎？

Just walk me through how you think NYMT participated was probably going to be a wave of maturity defaults and other distress?

請告訴我您如何認為 NYMT 參與的可能會是一波到期違約和其他困境？

Yes.

是的。

Great question.

很好的問題。

So the way we look at this market is in two ways.

所以我們看待這個市場的方式有兩個面向。

There's a vintage effect.

有一種復古的效果。

The vintage effect is based on entry points and financing costs at that time.

年份效應是基於當時的切入點和融資成本。

And so if you look at basically 2021's first half and earlier, we see that as more of a performing market opportunity for us in the case of preferred equity, lending, mezzanine lending, simply as senior lending cut back about 20%, 15% in LTV, there needs to be a bridge lending gap funding source for that paper.

因此，如果你基本上看一下2021 年上半年及更早的時間，我們會發現，在優先股、貸款、夾層貸款方面，這對我們來說是一個表現良好的市場機會，就像高級貸款削減了約20%、15% 一樣。

That's an opportunity that is more on the performing side.

這是一個更多在表演方面的機會。

And I'll call that dislocated on the distress side, it's the 2021 second half vintage and later where not only have funding costs and LTV has been cut back on senior lending, but there's also issues on NOI and basically negative carry related to current financing costs.

我將其稱為困境方面的錯位，這是 2021 年下半年及之後的情況，不僅高級貸款的融資成本和 LTV 被削減，而且還存在 NOI 問題以及與當前融資相關的基本負利差問題成本。

So as the market is now in around 6%-plus type of financing cost and your cap rates at those earlier purchase points were at the 4.75% to 5% to 5.25% range, there is going to be some haircuts that have to be taken on those assets to basically refloat the positive carry.

因此，由於市場現在的融資成本約為 6% 以上，而早期購買點的上限利率在 4.75% 至 5% 至 5.25% 的範圍內，因此必須進行一些削減這些資產基本上重新浮現正利差。

So in that case, the opportunity is multiple -- in multiple directions.

因此，在這種情況下，機會是多方面的——在多個方向上。

It's recaps.

這是回顧。

It's senior loan purchases.

這是高級貸款購買。

And I'd argue that a lot of this is to come.

我認為很多這樣的事情都會發生。

There's been quite a bit of capital raise in the market as a whole, and we're looking at it as well.

整個市場上有相當多的融資，我們也在關注它。

And there just hasn't been a lot of opportunity with respect to bank selling at discounts.

而且銀行打折銷售的機會也不多。

The market has not gotten to that point just yet.

市場尚未達到這一點。

But we believe over the course of -- as these maturity schedules continue to come through and the lack of willing buyers stepping up at current valuations, there's an opportunity there to work with banks, not only with respect to loan purchases, but also with respect to servicing.

但我們相信，隨著這些到期時間表的不斷完成，以及缺乏願意按當前估值加價的買家，我們有機會與銀行合作，不僅在貸款購買方面，而且在尊重方面到維修。

Our asset management platform is a 30-person team, have been doing this for multiple decades, is very capable and very -- not many institutional players are involved in that space where we can come in and use our technology and experience to help these positions and also get a look at the potential outtake of the actual -- of the opportunity or the restructuring that would take place.

我們的資產管理平台是一個由30 人組成的團隊，幾十年來一直在做這件事，非常有能力，而且非常——沒有多少機構參與者參與這個領域，我們可以進入並利用我們的技術和經驗來幫助這些職位也要看看實際機會或將發生的重組的潛在損失。

So we have been spending a lot of time on that and see an enormous opportunity for us in the near term.

因此，我們在這方面花費了很多時間，並看到短期內為我們帶來了巨大的機會。

That's interesting.

那很有意思。

You could partner with the banks and buy paper and do all the servicing.

您可以與銀行合作並購買紙張並完成所有服務。

That's an interesting dynamic.

這是一個有趣的動態。

I mean I know it's early been your crystal ball and are we talking what type of -- I'm assuming a lot of these deals could be unlevered?

我的意思是，我知道這很早就是你的水晶球，我們正在談論什麼類型的——我假設很多這樣的交易可能是無槓桿的？

Do you think you're already getting mid-teens in your agency in '19 on your BPL.

你是否認為你的 BPL 機構在 19 年就已經有十幾歲了？

Do you think yields could be bad or unlevered yields at or above that in this market?

您認為收益率可能會很差，或者無槓桿收益率會等於或高於這個市場嗎？

I mean just seems like it could be an incredible opportunity.

我的意思是，這似乎是一個難以置信的機會。

Any sense on what returns could look like?

你知道回報會是什麼樣子嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean we're seeing our mezzanine, the mezzanine asset class today is around a 15% return opportunity, and that's kind of the 70s to very low 80s LTV range.

我的意思是，我們看到了我們的夾層資產，今天的夾層資產類別的回報率約為 15%，這是 70 年代到 80 年代非常低的 LTV 範圍。

So if you're looking at these assets and particularly, let's -- what we call loan purchases, the market is going to look at it as a mid-teens type rate return opportunity.

因此，如果您正在關注這些資產，特別是我們所說的貸款購買，市場會將其視為中等青少年類型的利率回報機會。

I mean all you have to do is look at the debt funds have been raised in this asset class and the return hurdles that they're speaking to their investors, and you can back into what you think -- what those -- that senior note discount based on the 3.5% coupon that would exist on that bond or that note.

我的意思是，你所要做的就是查看在該資產類別中籌集的債務基金以及他們與投資者談論的回報障礙，然後你可以回顧一下你的想法 - 那些 - 高級說明折扣基於該債券或票據上存在的3.5% 息票。

So overall, our opportunity, we would not avail our capital to it unless we saw a mid-teens and above type of return to our capital.

因此，總的來說，我們的機會，除非我們看到我們的資本回報達到十幾歲及以上，否則我們不會利用我們的資本。

Great.

偉大的。

Well, it's worth keeping all that dry powder for it.

好吧，值得為它保留所有乾粉。

Doug Harter, UBS.

道格·哈特，瑞銀集團。

This is Cory Johnson on for Doug Harter.

我是道格·哈特的科里·約翰遜。

Sorry if I missed this earlier, but do you happen to provide any update on the book value for -- the updated book value for this upcoming -- for this first quarter?

抱歉，如果我之前錯過了這一點，但是您是否碰巧提供了第一季帳面價值的最新資訊——即將到來的更新帳面價值？

Cory, no, we did not mention that earlier.

科里，不，我們之前沒有提到這一點。

So as of February 20, we see quarter-to-date adjusted book value to be down about 3%.

因此，截至 2 月 20 日，我們預期季度至今調整後帳面價值將下降約 3%。

Eric Hagen, BTIG.

艾瑞克‧哈根，BTIG。

A follow-up on the book value mark-to-market quarter to date, can you flesh out or provide any color about what's maybe dragged that down a little bit?

迄今為止季度帳面價值按市值計價的後續行動，您能否充實或提供任何可能導致其下降的原因？

And then in the BPL bridge portfolio, is there an unfunded commitment that's associated with that book?

然後，在 BPL 橋樑投資組合中，是否存在與該書相關的無資金承諾？

Yes, no problem.

是沒有問題。

On the first question, it's primarily driven by rate moves and primarily driven by rate moves adjusting yields higher on residential credit assets primarily.

關於第一個問題，它主要是由利率變動驅動的，並且主要是由利率變動驅動的，利率變動主要調整了住宅信貸資產的收益率。

And then on the second question, yes, there's usually unfunded commitment on these BPL loans.

關於第二個問題，是的，這些 BPL 貸款通常沒有資金承諾。

But for the most part, what we try to do is we try to -- a lot of the assets that we tried to purchase have -- we try to limit the amount of additional rehab that needs to be done because as you have larger rehab projects such as ground-up and if there is a point where the borrower hands back the keys that now you have this midstream project that you have to manage.

但在大多數情況下，我們試圖做的是——我們試圖購買的許多資產——我們試圖限制需要進行的額外康復的數量，因為當你有更大的康復時項目，例如從頭開始，如果借款人歸還鑰匙，那麼現在您就擁有了必須管理的中游項目。

So generally speaking, we try to limit how much additional rehab and try to make it as down the fairway in terms of projects as possible.

所以一般來說，我們會盡量限制額外的復健工作，並盡量讓計畫順利進行。

Yes.

是的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Is there a balance associated with the unfunded commitment?

是否有與無資金承諾相關的餘額？

It looks like the total portfolio is about $900 million.

看起來投資組合總額約 9 億美元。

So as of December 31, that's about $6.6 million of unfunded commitment liability that we have on our books.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們帳上的無資金承諾負債約為 660 萬美元。

(Operator Instructions) And I am showing no further questions.

（操作員說明）我沒有再提出任何問題。

I would now like to turn the call over to Jason Serrano for closing remarks.

我現在想將電話轉給傑森·塞拉諾 (Jason Serrano) 致閉幕詞。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you for joining our fourth quarter earnings call.

感謝您參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。

We look forward to speaking with you on our first quarter call in early May.

我們期待在五月初的第一季電話會議上與您交談。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。