Nexstar Media Group Inc (NXST) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and welcome to Nexstar Media Group's fourth quarter 2024 conference call. Today's call is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Joe Jaffoni, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

    大家好,歡迎參加 Nexstar Media Group 2024 年第四季電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。現在我將會議交給投資者關係部喬·賈夫尼 (Joe Jaffoni)。先生,請繼續。

  • Joe Jaffoni - IR

    Joe Jaffoni - IR

  • Thank you, Shamali, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Nexstar's fourth quarter conference call. Let me read the Safe Harbor language and then we'll get right into the call. All statements and comments made by management during today's call, other than statements of historical fact, may be deemed forward-looking statements for purposes of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Nexstar cautions that these forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected by the forward-looking statements made during today's call. For additional details on these risks and uncertainties, please see Nexstar's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, as filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, and Nexstar's subsequent public filings with the SEC. Nextar undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. With that, it's now my pleasure to turn the conference over to your host, Nextar founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive officer, Perry Sook. Perry, please go ahead.

    謝謝你,Shamali,大家早安。感謝您參加 Nexstar 第四季電話會議。讓我讀一下安全港條款,然後我們就可以開始通話了。除歷史事實陳述外,管理階層在今天的電話會議上所作的所有聲明和評論均可被視為《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》所指的前瞻性陳述。Nexstar 警告稱,這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與今天電話會議中前瞻性陳述所反映的結果有重大差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多詳細信息,請參閱 Nexstar 向美國證券交易委員會提交的截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表年度報告,以及 Nexstar 隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件。Nextar 不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務,無論其是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。現在,我很高興將會議交給主持人、Nextar 創辦人、董事長兼執行長 Perry Sook。佩里,請說。

  • Perry Sook - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Perry Sook - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And we have our Chief Financial Officer. I'll start with a summary of recent highlights, followed by Mike's operations review and then Leanne's financial review. Our fourth quarter financial results marked a strong finish to another successful year for Nexstar, in which we delivered $5.4 billion in total net revenue, the highest in our company's 28-year history. Our record fourth quarter and full-year top-line performance were driven by strong election-year political advertising, highlighting the effectiveness of local television broadcasting and our presence in nearly 85% of the contested election markets across the country. In addition, we continue to grow distribution revenue, a testament to our position as the largest owner of local broadcast television stations carrying the most watched programming. For the full year, Nexstar generated $2 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $1.2 billion of adjusted free cash flow. We returned $820 million, or 68% of adjusted free cash flow, to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, reducing our shares outstanding by nearly 9% during the year and by one-third over the last five years. Another $327 million was allocated toward debt reduction, resulting in record low net leverage of 2.91 times at year end a historic low for the company, which positions our balance sheet well should there be any regulatory relief on the ownership front. In January, we announced the 12th consecutive annual increase in the quarterly cash dividend, underscoring the durability of our cash flows and reflecting a near 5% yield, placing Nexstar in the 94th percentile of all S&P 400 companies. The continued strength and consistency of our financial results and our shareholder returns in the face of what remains a dynamic marketplace environment highlights the value of our business model and the advantages of our unique competitive positioning as America's largest local television broadcaster. Broadcast television is the foundation for every multi-channel pay TV service and every political campaign, and over the past year, the landscape has evolved just as we had anticipated. To start, the industry has made solid strides in adopting more financially sustainable models, including the rebundling of DTC products into pay TV packages and the introduction of new value-priced skinny bundles, including the broadcast stations. At the same time, other major media companies have doubled down on broadcast, recognizing its unmatched viewership and audience reach while making the smart decision to scale back underperforming cable networks. Estimates from leading data aggregators like S&P Global and Wall Street analysts indicate that subscriber trends are poised for improvement. We've already seen early signs of that with Charter's commentary regarding their new video packaging. Above all, broadcast continues to be the gold standard for sports and news programming. While much was made of the two Christmas games that aired on Netflix, The ratings were 17% lower than the NFL matchups that aired on CBS and Fox the prior year, despite having the star power, Beyonce, at halftime. And over at the NBA, the five-game Christmas lineup on ABC and ESPN saw an 84% increase in ratings from 2023, aided by all five games being available on ABC versus only two the prior year. Closer to home, we saw the phenomenal launch of the 2025 NASCAR XFINITY Series racing, on the CW Broadcast Network in Daytona on February the 15th, where we achieved a total audience of 1.8 million viewers, a 93% improvement from last year when the race aired on FS1. And we repeated the success our second week in Atlanta, generating an audience of over 1.3 million viewers, the best performance for the Atlanta race in over eight years. That's the power of broadcast. And with traditional media companies owning 90-plus percent of the major sports rights, It's clear that broadcast remains the best way to reach and engage the largest audiences. While sports has dominated much of the conversation about the benefits of broadcast, we were all recently reminded about the importance of local news. As communities across Florida and North Carolina faced devastating hurricanes last September, and residents in the greater Los Angeles area battled destructive wildfires in January, Nexstar's local stations provided vital information, updates, and support to those in need. In each case, our stations, such as KTLA in Los Angeles, WFLA in Tampa, St. Petersburg, Florida, and WSPA in Spartanburg, Asheville, were there every step of the way, demonstrating the power of local journalism to inform, connect, and offer aid during some of the most challenging moments experienced by our viewers. The impact of these events on local communities made national news, and we are proud of the crucial role that NewsNation played in delivering comprehensive coverage of these events to audiences all across America. Before reviewing some of the key achievements across our businesses in fiscal 2024, I would like to briefly address the potential for deregulation. The excitement around M&A opportunities is palpable, and we're actively working with lawmakers through the NAB and our in-house government relations team to create more equitable broadcast ownership rules. This will help level the playing field, allow broadcasters to continue to serve their local communities with local journalism, and also to compete effectively with big tech and big media. We have a proven playbook for executing accretive, value-driven M&A, one we did on a smaller scale in January when we closed on the acquisition of WBNX TV in Cleveland, Ohio. This acquisition created a new duopoly with our existing Fox affiliate in the 19th largest television market, and WBNX will become the CW affiliate for Cleveland in September of this year, generating further synergies for Nexstar. As M&A has been the key driving factor of our stock over the last 15 years, and as it becomes more of a possibility with the current FCC and the potential for deregulation, we look forward to further prepare our balance sheet for these kinds of opportunities, and Leigh Ann will provide more color on that later in the call. In 2024, NewsNation firmly established itself as a formidable player in the cable news landscape with top-tier talent and reliable, unbiased reporting. Today, NewsNation is a 24/7 news network fully distributed across all platforms with nationwide distribution comparable to or better than the other more established cable news networks. We've also achieved major news milestones by hosting the final RNC presidential debate last year and becoming the first news network to accurately call the national election for President Trump. This underscores not only the depth and expertise of our data analysts, but it also evidences the trust that our peers and our viewers place in our reporting. Our joint editorial relationship with The Hill has further strengthened our content offering, providing insightful perspectives on key issues. In terms of performance, since December of 2024, NewsNation has out-delivered MSNBC 17 times and CNN twice in the 2554 demo, proving that our approach is resonating with viewers who are looking for a fresh and balanced take on the news. The CW's transformation into a top-tier broadcast network continued in 2024, driven by our strategy focused on high-quality entertainment, unscripted live events, and sports programming. WWE and NASCAR played key roles in reshaping the network's identity. On October 5, we drew 4.7 million viewers across NASCAR, ACC, and Pac-12 football in one afternoon. NASCAR, in particular, helped attract 20 new advertisers to the CW so far. These accomplishments highlight the network's ability to drive both audience engagement and value advertising partnerships, supporting our goals for continued growth and profitability. In 2025, approximately 40% of the programming hours delivered by the CW network will be live sports. Turning to ATSE 3.0, in January 2025, we took a significant step toward harnessing the power and potential of ATSE 3.0 with the announcement of the EdgeBeam Wireless Consortium, a new joint venture consolidating our prior joint ventures into one entity among Nexstar, the E.W. Scripps Company, Gray Media, and Sinclair. This collaboration will enable us to deliver wireless data via ATSE 3.0 transmission to businesses across the nation. In total, Edge Beam Wireless represents spectrum covering over 97% of the continental US and over 7 billion megahertz POPs. In addition, we're happy to report that the new joint venture did sign its first paying customer last year in the digital signage space, demonstrating initial proof of concept. Looking ahead, we are energized by the significant prospects before us, and we remain laser-focused on executing on our 2025 objectives. which include renewing distribution contracts covering approximately 60% of our subscriber base, driving the CW further toward profitability, and pursuing deregulation. With that, we are providing adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 in the range of $1.5 to $1.595 billion. Mike and Leanne will provide more detail on that later in the call. Given our record 2024 revenue and our consistently strong financial results and outlook, especially in light of a dislocated broader media environment, you should be able to see how Nexstar's unique positioning is increasingly able to bend the curve in our favor. We have amassed a scaled portfolio of broadcast assets unlike any other. Our position as a top three affiliate group for each of the big four broadcast networks makes us a key partner for the networks and for distributors. Owning the CW network allows us to control our own destiny by boosting both our owned and operated CW affiliate stations as well as the network profitability. Additionally, investments in NewsNation and ATSE 3.0 offer significant opportunities to deliver outsized growth and create outsized value going forward. Together, our assets generate consistently strong free cash flow, which we've used to create the clean balance sheet that we have today and to return capital to shareholders equal to 16% of our market cap in 2024. We invite you to watch and, in fact, join as we continue to bend the curve in our favor in 2025 and beyond. With all of that said, let me now turn the call over to Mike Beard. Mike?

    我們還有財務長。我將首先總結最近的亮點,然後是 Mike 的營運回顧,然後是 Leanne 的財務回顧。我們的第四季財務表現標誌著 Nexstar 又一個成功的一年,我們在這一年實現了 54 億美元的總淨收入,創下公司 28 年歷史上的最高水準。我們創紀錄的第四季和全年營收業績得益於強勁的選舉年政治廣告,突顯了地方電視廣播的有效性以及我們在全國近 85% 有爭議的選舉市場的影響力。此外,我們的發行收入持續成長,證明了我們作為播放收視率最高的地方廣播電視台的最大所有者地位。全年而言,Nexstar 的調整後 EBITDA 為 20 億美元,調整後自由現金流為 12 億美元。我們透過股票回購和股利向股東返還了 8.2 億美元,佔調整後自由現金流的 68%,導致本年度流通股數量減少了近 9%,過去五年減少了三分之一。另外 3.27 億美元被分配用於削減債務,導致年底的淨槓桿率降至 2.91 倍的歷史新低,創下公司的歷史新低,如果在所有權方面有任何監管放鬆,這將為我們的資產負債表帶來良好的定位。今年 1 月,我們宣布連續第 12 年增加季度現金股息,凸顯了我們現金流的持久性,並反映了近 5% 的收益率,使 Nexstar 在所有標準普爾 400 指數公司中位居第 94 個百分位。在仍然動態的市場環境下,我們財務表現和股東回報的持續強勁和穩定,凸顯了我們商業模式的價值以及我們作為美國最大本地電視廣播公司的獨特競爭定位的優勢。廣播電視是每個多頻道付費電視服務和每場政治運動的基礎,在過去的一年裡,廣播電視的格局正如我們所預期的那樣發生了變化。首先,該行業在採用更具財務可持續性的模式方面取得了堅實的進展,包括將DTC產品重新捆綁到付費電視套餐中,以及推出包括廣播電台在內的新的超值精簡套餐。同時,其他主要媒體公司也加倍押注廣播,認識到其無與倫比的收視率和受眾範圍,同時做出明智的決定,縮減表現不佳的有線電視網絡。標準普爾全球和華爾街分析師等領先數據聚合機構的估計表明,用戶趨勢有望改善。我們已經從 Charter 對其新視訊包裝的評論中看到了這種現象的早期跡象。最重要的是,廣播仍然是體育和新聞節目的黃金標準。儘管 Netflix 播出的兩場聖誕節比賽引起了廣泛關注,但儘管中場休息時有碧昂絲這樣的明星助陣,收視率仍比去年 CBS 和 Fox 播出的 NFL 對決低了 17%。在 NBA,ABC 和 ESPN 的五場聖誕陣容收視率較 2023 年增長了 84%,這得益於所有五場比賽都在 ABC 上播出,而前一年只有兩場。在國內,我們於 2 月 15 日在代托納的 CW 廣播網見證了 2025 年 NASCAR XFINITY 系列賽的盛大開幕,總觀眾人數達到 180 萬,比去年比賽在 FS1 播出時增長了 93%。我們在亞特蘭大的第二週再次取得了成功,吸引了超過 130 萬觀眾,這是亞特蘭大賽事八年來的最佳成績。這就是廣播的力量。傳統媒體公司擁有 90% 以上的主要體育賽事轉播權,顯然廣播仍然是接觸和吸引最大受眾的最佳方式。雖然體育在有關廣播好處的討論中佔據了大部分地位,但最近我們都意識到了本地新聞的重要性。去年 9 月,佛羅裡達州和北卡羅來納州的社區遭受了毀滅性的颶風襲擊,大洛杉磯地區的居民在 1 月與破壞性的野火作鬥爭,Nexstar 的當地電台為有需要的人們提供了重要資訊、最新消息和支持。在每種情況下,我們的電視台,例如洛杉磯的 KTLA、佛羅裡達聖彼得堡坦帕的 WFLA 和阿什維爾斯帕坦堡的 WSPA,都全程參與,展示了當地新聞的力量,在觀眾經歷的一些最具挑戰性的時刻提供資訊、聯繫和援助。這些事件對當地社區的影響成為了全國新聞,我們為 NewsNation 在向全美觀眾全面報導這些事件方面發揮的關鍵作用感到自豪。在回顧我們 2024 財年各項業務取得的一些關鍵成就之前,我想先簡單談談放鬆管制的可能性。人們對併購機會的興奮是顯而易見的,我們正在透過 NAB 和我們的內部政府關係團隊積極與立法者合作,制定更公平的廣播所有權規則。這將有助於創造公平的競爭環境,使廣播公司能夠繼續透過當地新聞服務當地社區,並與大型科技公司和大型媒體進行有效競爭。我們有一套行之有效的策略來執行增值型、價值驅動的併購,今年 1 月,當我們完成對俄亥俄州克利夫蘭 WBNX 電視台的收購時,我們曾小規模地進行過這項操作。此次收購與我們現有的福克斯附屬公司在第 19 大電視市場形成了新的雙頭壟斷,WBNX 將於今年 9 月成為克利夫蘭的 CW 附屬公司,為 Nexstar 產生進一步的協同效應。由於併購在過去 15 年裡一直是我們股票的主要驅動因素,而且隨著當前聯邦通信委員會和放鬆管制的可能性越來越大,併購變得越來越有可能,我們期待為此類機會進一步準備我們的資產負債表,Leigh Ann 將在稍後的電話會議上提供更多詳細信息。2024 年,NewsNation 憑藉頂級人才和可靠、公正的報道,牢固確立了其在有線新聞領域強大地位。如今,NewsNation 已成為一個全天候新聞網絡,全面覆蓋所有平台,在全國範圍內的分發範圍堪比甚至優於其他更成熟的有線新聞網絡。我們也透過主辦去年共和黨全國委員會最後一場總統辯論以及成為第一個準確預測川普總統全國大選結果的新聞網絡,取得了重大新聞里程碑。這不僅凸顯了我們的數據分析師的深度和專業知識,也證明了我們的同行和觀眾對我們報告的信任。我們與《國會山莊》的共同編輯關係進一步加強了我們的內容供應,為關鍵問題提供了深刻的見解。在表現方面,自 2024 年 12 月以來,NewsNation 在 2554 年的演示中已經 17 次超越 MSNBC,2 次超越 CNN,這證明了我們的方法引起了那些尋求新鮮、平衡的新聞觀看的觀眾的共鳴。2024 年,CW 繼續轉型成為頂級廣播網絡,這得益於我們專注於高品質娛樂、非腳本直播活動和體育節目的策略。WWE 和 NASCAR 在重塑該網絡形象方面發揮了關鍵作用。10 月 5 日當天下午,我們吸引了 470 萬名 NASCAR、ACC 和 Pac-12 橄欖球賽觀眾。尤其是 NASCAR,迄今為止已幫助 CW 吸引了 20 個新廣告商。這些成就凸顯了該網絡推動觀眾參與和重視廣告合作夥伴關係的能力,支持了我們持續成長和獲利的目標。到 2025 年,CW 網路播出的節目時間中約有 40% 將是現場體育節目。談到 ATSE 3.0,2025 年 1 月,我們宣布成立 EdgeBeam Wireless Consortium,向充分利用 ATSE 3.0 的功能和潛力邁出了重要一步,這是一家新的合資企業,將我們之前的合資企業合併為 Nexstar、E.W. Scripps Company、Gray Media 和 Sinclair 之間的一個實體。此次合作將使我們能夠透過 ATSE 3.0 傳輸向全國各地的企業提供無線資料。總體而言,Edge Beam Wireless 的光譜涵蓋了美國大陸 97% 以上的地區和超過 70 億兆赫的 POP。此外,我們很高興地報告,新的合資企業去年確實在數位看板領域簽下了第一位付費客戶,展示了初步的概念驗證。展望未來,眼前的光明前景激勵著我們,我們將繼續全心全意地致力於實現 2025 年的目標。其中包括續約覆蓋約60%訂戶群的分銷合約、推動CW進一步實現盈利以及推行放鬆管制。因此,我們給出了 2025 年調整後的 EBITDA 指引,範圍在 15 億美元至 15.95 億美元之間。Mike 和 Leanne 將在稍後的通話中提供更多詳細資訊。鑑於我們創紀錄的 2024 年收入以及持續強勁的財務業績和前景,尤其是在更廣泛的媒體環境混亂的情況下,您應該能夠看到 Nexstar 的獨特定位如何越來越能夠扭轉局面,使之對我們有利。我們累積了與其他公司不同的大規模廣播資產組合。我們是四大廣播網絡的前三大附屬集團之一,這使我們成為這些網絡和分銷商的重要合作夥伴。擁有 CW 網路使我們能夠透過提升我們擁有和經營的 CW 附屬電台以及網路盈利能力來掌握自己的命運。此外,對 NewsNation 和 ATSE 3.0 的投資為實現超額成長和創造超額價值提供了重要機會。總之,我們的資產持續產生強勁的自由現金流,我們利用這些自由現金流創建了今天的乾淨資產負債表,並在 2024 年向股東返還了相當於我們市值 16% 的資本。我們邀請您觀看並加入我們,因為我們將在 2025 年及以後繼續扭轉局勢,使其對我們有利。說了這麼多,現在我將把電話轉給麥克比爾德。麥克風?

  • Michael Biard - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Michael Biard - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Thank you, Perry, and good morning, everyone. Nexstar delivered record fourth quarter net revenue of $1.5 billion, up 14% compared to the prior year, primarily reflecting growth in advertising revenue due to strong election year political advertising as well as continued growth in distribution revenue. Record fourth quarter distribution revenue of $714 million increased $10 million or 1.4% over the comparable prior year quarter. Distribution revenue growth primarily reflects the benefit of distribution contract renewals in 2023 on terms favorable to the company, annual rate escalators, growth in vMVPD subscribers the addition of CW affiliations on certain of our stations, and the return of partner stations on one MVPD in January, which more than offset MVPD subscriber attrition. In January, Nexstar and our partner stations reached agreement with NBC to renew our affiliations in 33 markets. And as previously announced, we completed our CBS affiliation renewal in mid-24. We view our relationships with the networks as symbiotic. The broadcast affiliate model provides significant advantages to the networks by reaching the largest audience for their programming, extending coverage to both pay TV households and over-the-air homes, which they cannot do on their own. Major sports, including the NFL, are committed to serving the broadcast audience, sorry, the broadest audience possible to drive fan engagement. So that means a commitment to broadcast television, which provides 14% additional reach over the pay TV ecosystem alone, reaching 100% of television households. In addition, with networks only providing 2 to 12 hours of content daily, affiliates provide the other 12 to 22 hours of programming through our highly rated local news and other local and syndicated programming, which helps increase overall viewership by offering a more complete product for our viewers. We expect both gross and net distribution revenue to be relatively flat with 2024's record levels. With a very modest number of subscribers renewed in 2024, we expect the annual rate escalators in our contracts to be offset by continued subscriber attrition, although we remain optimistic that subscriber trends will improve as we move deeper into the year. However, later this year, we have approximately 60% of our subscriber base up for renewal, which we expect to benefit distribution revenue beginning in the first quarter of 2026. Fourth quarter advertising revenue of $758 million increased $173 million or 29.6% over the comparable prior year quarter reflecting a $223 million year-over-year increase in election year political advertising to $254 million which more than offset a $51 million year-over-year reduction in non-political advertising revenue, or approximately 9%, due to market softness and political displacement, which we estimate accounted for roughly half that reduction. In the 2024 election year, broadcast television proved to be one of the few media to see growth, with the overall market expanding from $7.96 billion in 2020 to $9.33 billion. Specifically, according to estimates from Ad Impact, TV revenue rose from 4.46 billion to 4.53 billion. Nextar maintained a solid 13% market share of all television political advertising spending, generating $491 million in political revenue, an increase over the 479 million we had previously reported through Election Day in 2020. Notably, the absence of the Georgia runoff election, which had been a significant driver in 2020, resulted in a slight dip from our record-breaking political revenue in that cycle. Nevertheless, Nexstar remains well-positioned for continued growth, and we're confident in our ability to capture a larger share of political ad dollars in future elections. Looking ahead to the first quarter, non-political advertising is currently forecast to be down in the low to mid single digits on a year-over-year basis, a sequential improvement over both Q4 2024 on an as-reported basis and also when adjusting for the estimated impact of political displacement. While we continue to be impacted by a challenging television advertising market, including weakness in insurance advertising due to the recent natural disasters in Q4 and Q1, and continued weakness in automotive advertising, we are seeing sequential improvement both in local and national advertising. On the local side, the rate of local advertising decline is improving in Q1 due to increased revenue related to the Super Bowl on Fox featuring the Kansas City Chiefs, a market where we have the Fox-affiliated station, and double-digit year-over-year growth in digital revenue. On the national side, the rate of national advertising decline improved primarily due to ratings and associated revenue from our new slate of programming. For the year, non-political advertising is expected to be slightly up as weakness in television advertising is expected to be offset by strong performance at the CW due to our new slate of programming featuring WWE NXT and NASCAR Xfinity racing and local digital revenue growth as we aggressively focus on utilizing our over 1,600 local sellers to sell cars and third-party digital products. On the operating expense side, as part of our ongoing efforts to enhance efficiency and drive long-term growth, Nextar implemented a strategic operational restructuring in Q4 that we mentioned on our November call. That initiative included the elimination of a few hundred positions across various divisions, streamlining an improved integration of the CW and the Hill into the broader organization, and reducing middle management within our ad sales division. Additionally, we focused on streamlining work processes at our local markets to improve overall productivity. This restructuring is expected to generate savings in the low to mid eight figures in total operating expense in 2025, and will enable Nexstar to focus on initiatives that more directly impact our viewers, partners, and customers as we continue to prioritize initiatives that represent our best long-term opportunities. Now turning to the CW. In 2024, we improved cash flow at the CW by $127 million, exceeding our goal of more than $100 million of improvement, which reduced our 2023 losses by approximately 50%. With the substantial majority of cost reductions for the network related to programming costs and overhead efficiencies now executed, in 2025, we are seeing our new programming investments begin to pay dividends. And just to put a few finer points on the new programming, in 2025, CW will have about 400 hours of sports or sports-related programming, which accounts for approximately 40% of the hours provided by the network, a dramatic change from the old CW that had no sports programming whatsoever. The 2025 schedule includes 52 weeks of WWE NXT and 33 weeks of NASCAR Xfinity Series races, both of which are proving to be strong ratings performers for us. As Perry mentioned, in the first Xfinity Series race of the 2025 season, notably the first with our own production, we attracted 1.8 million average viewers, peaking at over 2.2 million. For the highest viewership of the Daytona race, since 2020. To provide some context for those of you who may be more familiar with Formula One, our Daytona NASCAR XFINITY race garnered 24% more viewers than the average of the three US-based F1 races in 2024 that aired on ABC and ESPN, and nearly 70% better than the full Formula One season average. and that Daytona momentum carried into the second race of the season last Saturday when over 1.3 million average viewers, peaking at over 1.5 million, tuned into the Xfinity race in Atlanta. In the process, the CW delivered the best performance for the Atlanta race since 2017. Remarkably, our Saturday race aired amidst a busy sports calendar and it performed better than the college hoops, PGA golf, and NHL that aired across Fox, CBS, , NBC, and ABC. Similarly, the CW has raised the performance of WWE NXT with audience improvement of 12% to date versus its 2024 average on USA, marking a 105% year-over-year improvement over what the CW was airing in that time slot previously, and regularly beating Big Four network programming head-to-head. In fact, Six weeks into 2025, NXT on the CW is enjoying its most broadly viewed quarter in the last five years. In 2025, we expect to cut losses at the CW by more than 25% from 2024 levels due primarily to growth in advertising driven by improved ratings and growth in distribution revenue. During 2025, we will reset affiliation agreements representing more than two-thirds of the CW's subscriber base positively impacting the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026. Consistent with our prior guidance, we anticipate the impact of these resets in our advertising trajectory will enable the CW to achieve profitability during 2026. In addition, the company continues to benefit from moving CW affiliations to our owned and operated stations. During 2023 and 2024, we moved 17 affiliations to our stations, with more to come. In summary, 2024 was a standout year for Nexstar, and we remain excited about the company's future. As Perry mentioned, we believe the market is shifting in ways that will benefit broadcast television and that there is meaningful upside potential ahead of us, with potential deregulation and actionable growth catalysts in 2026 given our distribution renewal cycle, the midterm elections, and the Olympics. and consistent with our track record, we remain committed to delivering value to our shareholders in a thoughtful and disciplined manner. And we will continue to explore every opportunity to maximize that value over the long term. With that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Leigh Ann for the remainder of the financial review. Lee Ann?

    謝謝你,佩里,大家早安。Nexstar 第四季淨營收達到創紀錄的 15 億美元,較上年同期成長 14%,這主要反映了由於選舉年政治廣告強勁而導致的廣告收入成長以及分銷收入的持續成長。第四季分銷收入達到創紀錄的 7.14 億美元,比去年同期增加 1,000 萬美元,成長 1.4%。分銷收入成長主要反映了 2023 年分銷合約續約對公司有利的條款、年度費率遞增、vMVPD 用戶的成長、我們某些電台增加 CW 附屬機構以及 1 月份合作電台在一個 MVPD 上的回歸,這些都足以抵消 MVPD 用戶流失的影響。一月份,Nexstar 和我們的合作電台與 NBC 達成協議,在 33 個市場中續簽合作關係。正如之前宣布的那樣,我們在 24 年中期完成了與 CBS 的合作關係續簽。我們認為我們與網絡的關係是共生的。廣播聯盟模式為網路帶來了顯著優勢,因為它可以讓其節目覆蓋最廣泛的受眾群體,擴大其對付費電視家庭和無線家庭的覆蓋範圍,而這些是它們獨自無法實現的。包括 NFL 在內的主要體育賽事都致力於服務廣播觀眾,對不起,是盡可能廣泛的觀眾,以推動球迷的參與。這意味著對廣播電視的承諾,僅付費電​​視生態系統就提供了 14% 的額外覆蓋率,覆蓋了 100% 的電視家庭。此外,由於網路每天僅提供 2 至 12 小時的內容,因此附屬機構透過我們收視率很高的本地新聞和其他本地及聯合節目提供另外 12 至 22 小時的節目,這有助於透過為觀眾提供更完整的產品來提高整體收視率。我們預計總分銷收入和淨分銷收入都將與 2024 年的創紀錄水平持平。由於 2024 年續約的用戶數量非常少,我們預計合約中年度費率的上調將被持續的用戶流失所抵消,但我們仍然樂觀地認為,隨著時間的推移,用戶趨勢將會改善。然而,今年晚些時候,我們將有大約 60% 的用戶進行續訂,我們預計這將從 2026 年第一季開始為分銷收入帶來好處。第四季廣告收入為 7.58 億美元,比去年同期增加 1.73 億美元,增幅為 29.6%,其中選舉年政治廣告收入較上年增加 2.23 億美元,達到 2.54 億美元,這足以抵消非政治廣告收入較上年減少 5,100 萬美元(約 9%)的影響。我們估計,非政治廣告收入因市場疲軟和政治動盪佔減少額的約一半。在 2024 年選舉年,廣播電視被證明是少數成長的媒體之一,整體市場規模從 2020 年的 79.6 億美元擴大到 93.3 億美元。具體來說,根據 Ad Impact 的估計,電視收入從 44.6 億增加到 45.3 億。Nextar 在所有電視政治廣告支出中保持了 13% 的穩固市場份額,創造了 4.91 億美元的政治收入,比我們之前報告的截至 2020 年選舉日的 4.79 億美元有所增加。值得注意的是,喬治亞州決選的缺席(這曾是 2020 年選舉的一個重要推動因素)導致我們在該週期創紀錄的政治收入略有下降。儘管如此,Nexstar 仍然保持著持續成長的有利地位,我們有信心在未來的選舉中獲得更大的政治廣告份額。展望第一季度,目前預測非政治廣告與去年同期相比將下降低至中等個位數,與 2024 年第四季度相比,無論是報告基礎還是根據政治流離失所的估計影響進行調整後,都有所改善。雖然我們繼續受到充滿挑戰的電視廣告市場的影響,包括由於第四季度和第一季最近的自然災害導致保險廣告疲軟,以及汽車廣告持續疲軟,但我們看到本地和全國廣告均出現連續改善。在本地方面,第一季本地廣告下滑率有所改善,原因是福克斯電視台播出的堪薩斯城酋長隊參加的超級碗比賽相關收入增加,而我們在該地區有福克斯附屬電視台,數字收入也實現了兩位數的同比增長。從全國範圍來看,全國廣告下滑率的改善主要得益於收視率以及我們新推出的節目的相關收入。今年,非政治廣告預計會略有上升,因為電視廣告的疲軟預計將被 CW 的強勁表​​現所抵消,這得益於我們新推出的以 WWE NXT 和 NASCAR Xfinity 賽車為特色的節目,以及我們積極專注於利用超過 1,600 個本地賣家銷售汽車和第三方數位產品,本地數位收入增長。在營運費用方面,作為我們持續努力提高效率和推動長期成長的一部分,Nextar 在第四季度實施了我們在 11 月電話會議上提到的策略營運重組。該計劃包括裁減各部門的數百個職位、簡化流程並將 CW 和國會山莊整合到更廣泛的組織中,以及減少廣告銷售部門的中階管理人員。此外,我們致力於簡化當地市場的工作流程,以提高整體生產力。此次重組預計將在 2025 年節省八位數左右的總營運費用,並使 Nexstar 能夠專注於更直接影響我們的觀眾、合作夥伴和客戶的舉措,因為我們將繼續優先考慮代表我們最佳長期機會的舉措。現在轉向 CW。2024 年,我們將 CW 的現金流改善了 1.27 億美元,超過了我們改善 1 億美元以上的目標,這使我們 2023 年的損失減少了約 50%。隨著與節目成本和管理效率相關的網路成本削減措施的絕大多數已經實施,到 2025 年,我們將看到我們的新節目投資開始獲得回報。再說一些關於新節目的細節,到 2025 年,CW 將有大約 400 小時的體育或體育相關節目,佔該網絡提供節目時間的約 40%,這與以前完全沒有體育節目的 CW 相比發生了巨大變化。2025 年的賽程包括 52 週的 WWE NXT 和 33 週的 NASCAR Xfinity 系列賽,這兩場賽事都將為我們帶來強勁的收視率表現。正如佩里所提到的,在 2025 賽季的首場 Xfinity 系列賽中,尤其是我們自己製作的首場比賽,我們吸引了平均 180 萬觀眾,最高達到 220 多萬。這是自 2020 年以來,代托納賽事收視率最高的一場比賽。對於可能更熟悉一級方程式賽車的人來說,我們提供了一些背景信息,我們的 Daytona NASCAR XFINITY 比賽的觀眾人數比 ABC 和 ESPN 播出的 2024 年三場美國 F1 比賽的平均觀眾人數高出 24%,比整個一級方程式賽季的平均觀眾人數高出近 70%。戴通納的勢頭延續到了上週六賽季的第二場比賽,當時平均有超過 130 萬觀眾觀看了亞特蘭大 Xfinity 賽事,最高觀眾人數超過 150 萬。在此過程中,CW 在亞特蘭大比賽中取得了 2017 年以來的最佳表現。值得注意的是,我們的周六比賽在繁忙的體育日程中播出,並且其表現優於福克斯、哥倫比亞廣播公司、NBC 和美國廣播公司播出的大學籃球賽、PGA 高爾夫賽和 NHL 賽。同樣地,CW 也提升了 WWE NXT 的表現,迄今為止,與 2024 年 USA 的平均觀眾人數相比,觀眾人數提高了 12%,與 CW 之前在同一時段播出的節目相比,提高了 105%,並且經常在正面交鋒中擊敗四大電視網的節目。事實上,2025 年已經過去六週,CW 上的 NXT 正迎來五年來收視率最高的一個季度。到 2025 年,我們預計 CW 的虧損將比 2024 年的水準減少 25% 以上,這主要歸因於收視率提高和發行收入成長推動的廣告成長。2025 年,我們將重置佔 CW 用戶群三分之二以上的附屬協議,這將對 2025 年和 2026 年第四季產生正面影響。與我們先前的指導一致,我們預計這些重置對我們的廣告軌蹟的影響將使 CW 在 2026 年實現盈利。此外,將 CW 附屬機構轉移到我們擁有和經營的電台後,公司將繼續受益。在 2023 年和 2024 年期間,我們將 17 個附屬機構遷移至我們的電台,未來將有更多附屬機構遷移。總而言之,2024 年對 Nexstar 來說是傑出的一年,我們對公司的未來仍然充滿期待。正如佩里所提到的,我們相信市場正在發生變化,這將有利於廣播電視,而且我們面前還有巨大的上行潛力,考慮到我們的分銷更新周期、中期選舉和奧運會,2026 年可能會放鬆管制並出現可行的增長催化劑。與我們的過往業績一致,我們依然致力於以周到且嚴謹的方式為股東創造價值。我們將繼續探索每一個機會,以長期實現該價值的最大化。說完這些,我很高興將剩餘的財務審查工作交給 Leigh Ann。李安?

  • Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Mike gave you most of the details on the revenue side and on the CW, so I will provide a review of expenses, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow along with a review of our capital allocation activities, our 2025 guidance, and some perspectives on valuation. Together, fourth quarter direct operating and SG&A expenses, excluding depreciation and amortization and corporate expenses, were essentially flat, decreasing by $2 million. Increases in news and other programming and content costs were offset primarily by reduced promotion costs in the quarter. Q4 2024 total corporate expense was $48 million, including non-cash compensation expense of $20 million, compared to $45 million, including non-cash compensation expense of $16 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. The increase of $3 million is primarily due to one-time severance costs associated with our operational restructuring, while the increase in non-cash compensation expense is due to new restricted stock grants and the timing of grants offset in part by a release of reserves, among other factors. Q4 2024 depreciation and amortization was $220 million versus $210 million in the prior year quarter, an increase of $10 million. Of these amounts, included in our definition of adjusted EBITDA is $98 million related to the amortization of broadcast rights for Q4 2024 compared to $87 million for Q4 2023. The increase of amortization of broadcast rights by $11 million was primarily due to programming costs at the CW as newly acquired programming premiered offset by a slight reduction of amortization of broadcast rights elsewhere at Nexstar. Please note that while Q4 CW programming amortization was up year-over-year, we do not expect 2025 CW programming amortization to be higher than 2024. Q4 2024 income from equity method investments, which primarily reflects our 31% ownership in TV Food Network, declined by $5 million in the quarter, or 22%, primarily related to TV Food Network's lower advertising revenue. but better than what we originally anticipated. Putting it all together on a consolidated basis, fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $628 million, representing a 42.2% margin and an increase of $179 million from the fourth quarter 2023 of $449 million. Moving to the components of free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow, fourth quarter CapEx was $35 million, essentially flat to the fourth quarter of last year. Fourth quarter net interest expense was $104 million, a reduction of $11 million from fourth quarter of 2023. On a cash basis, this compares to $101 million in Q4 2024 versus $113 million in Q4 2023. The reduction in interest expense was primarily related to a reduction in SOFR and reduced debt balances. Fourth quarter operating cash taxes were $67 million compared to $26 million in 2023, an increase of $41 million primarily related to increased pre-tax operating income in 2024 related to increased election year political advertising. Payments for capitalized software obligations and pension credits, net of proceeds from disposal of assets and insurance recoveries, were $11 million versus $14 million last year. Cash contributions from our partners in the CW were zero in the quarter versus $15 million in Q4 2023. In Q4, programming amortization costs were actually greater than cash payments by $13 million as certain programming payments were deferred. Putting this all together, consolidated fourth quarter 2024 adjusted free cash flow was $411 million as compared to $245 million last year. Now turning to our guidance for 2025, we believe 2025 adjusted EBITDA will be in the range of $1.5 to $1.595 billion. Mike already provided some of the key assumptions that are embedded in our guidance, including one, our expectation for growth in net distribution revenue to be flattish in 2025 based on a slight improvement in subscriber attrition trends, , our expectation for non-political advertising revenue growth to be slightly up as increases at the CW are expected to partially offset some of the continued headwinds in national and local, and digital advertising growth is expected to more than offset the rest, , operating expenses will be reduced in the low to mid-eight figures of dollars due to our operational restructuring, and , we expect the CW will continue to reduce its losses by another 25% in 2024 from 2025 levels. Key factors differing from our current expectations could affect our outlook for adjusted EBITDA for 2025 either positively or negatively. Those factors include, among other things, the rate of growth or attrition of paid TV subs, the health of local and national advertising markets, our renegotiation of certain distribution and affiliation agreements on terms favorable to the company, and the attributable net income related to our 31.3% ownership stake in TV Food Network. We do not intend to update this guidance on a quarterly basis. As a few additional points of guidance with respect to adjusted free cash flow, we are currently projecting CapEx of $120 to $125 million for the year and $30 to $35 million in Q1. Based on the current yield curve, we anticipate full-year 2025 cash interest expense to be in the $375 to $380 million area and improvement of more than $55 million from 2024 levels at the midpoint. We project Nexstar's cash interest expense utilizing the spread on our floating rate debt instruments, the current SOFR forward curve, and the coupons on our fixed-rate debt, along with our expectations for debt repayment, which includes our mandatory amortization of approximately $125 million, plus a modest amount of additional repayment. Q1 interest expense is expected in the $95 million range. Full-year 2025 cash taxes are expected to be $260 to $270 million, an increase in the low 20s of millions versus 2024, as we are now using the annualization method for our federal income taxes, which enabled us to defer about $33 million of income tax from 2024 to 2025. For cash taxes, we use a 26% tax rate when calculating our estimated tax before one-time and other adjustments. The first quarter includes only a very small amount of state income tax in the $3 million range. As a reminder, we used the cash that we deferred from 2024 taxes into 2025 to optionally repay Term Loan B. We will pay this deferred income tax in the second quarter of 2025. In 2025, payments for programming are expected to be in excess of amortization by $40 to $45 million. due primarily to deferred programming payments from prior years and investment in programming for future years with approximately $7 million of that in Q1. Turning to capital allocation in our balance sheet, together with cash from operations generated in the quarter and cash on hand, we returned $230 million to shareholders comprised of $52 million in dividends and the repurchase of $178 million of stock at an average price of $167.30 per share reducing shares outstanding net of equity vestings by 2.7%. For the year, we returned $820 million or 68% of our adjusted free cash flow to shareholders in the form of $219 million of dividends and $601 million of share purchases. Nexstar's outstanding debt at December 31, 24 was $6.5 billion, a reduction of $181 million for the quarter as we made quarterly amortization payments of $31 million and optionally repaid $150 million of our term loan fee. Our cash balance at quarter end was $144 million, including $16 million of cash related to the CW. Because we designated the CW as an unrestricted subsidiary, the losses associated with the CW are not accounted for in our calculation of leverage for purposes of our credit agreement. As such, our net first lien rate covenant ratio for Nexstar at December 31, 2024 was 1.68 times, which is well below our first lean and only covenant of 4.25 times. Our total net leverage for Nexstar was 2.91 times at quarter end. As is typical in non-political years, we expect leverage, which is calculated on an LTM basis versus a two-year average, to increase during 2025, as adjusted EBITDA falls in non-election years when political advertising is significantly lower. Our 2025 cash flow will be deployed first to fulfill our mandatory obligations, including debt repayments and pension and defined benefit plan contributions of approximately $145 million, the Cleveland Television Station acquisition for $22 million, and the anticipated 2025 dividend of approximately $225 million. In January, we announced our 12th consecutive increase in our dividend, increasing quarterly dividend rate by 10%, which based on our stock price, as of yesterday now represents an almost 5% yield, which as Perry mentioned, puts us in the 94th percentile of stocks in the S&P 400 for dividend yield. The remainder of our cash flow will be used to fund acquisitions should an opportunity become available. If no attractive strategic accretive acquisitions are available, we plan to repay debt and repurchase stock. In 2025, assuming no large-scale M&A, we plan to optionally repay an incremental amount of debt and not re-borrow the debt that was repaid during 2024 from the cash from deferred taxes. The additional optional deleveraging will prepare our balance sheet better for any potential M&A and should benefit us, even if there is no M&A, as many investors value us based on an EBITDA multiple. Based on that methodology, any debt reduction mathematically increases our equity dollar for dollar. We plan to continue to repurchase shares, which will continue to be the largest component of our capital allocation strategy, especially given our current valuation. In total, we anticipate returning almost two-thirds of free cash flow to shareholders in 2025, similar to the level we returned in 2024. Before I turn it over to the operator for questions, I'd like to address the value proposition in Nexstar stock. As Perry mentioned in his remarks, the scale and scope of Nexstar is unlike any other player in the broader media industry, enabling us to bend the curve to achieve results that other operators cannot achieve. While this has been the case with our record-setting revenue performance in 2024, it has not been the case with respect to our stock price over the last year. So that disconnect creates opportunity. Based on current street estimates and as of yesterday's closing stock price, We traded at a 6.3 times multiple of 2425 EBITDA and a 21% free cash flow yield below the midpoint of the pack of comparable broadcasters despite achieving top-tier margins and free cash flow conversion and the highest dividend yield and the highest overall return of capital to shareholders. A top-tier multiple of 7 to 7.5 times would imply a stock price of $197 at the midpoint, a 35% premium to yesterday's closing price, And if we applied the same valuation that Warner Brothers and Paramount did to their cable networks, which do not have the same prospects as the broadcast industry, nor the same trajectory of revenue that we've been able to accomplish, which, you know, those estimates included a 10.5% WAC and a negative 3% perpetuity growth rate, but assuming the consensus estimates for the average adjusted free cash flow of 24-25 for Nextar, applying those those metrics, the math implies a valuation of $210 per share, a 43% premium to yesterday's closing price. And if deregulation comes to fruition, and we are able to make accretive acquisitions as we have in the past, and pay TV subscriber attrition does flow, Nexstar and our industry should be re-rated. So it should be a win-win. Short-term growth to value us like the premium curve-bending company we are, and then a rising tide floating all media boats with DREG and slowing attrition. We are believers in the near and long-term value of our stock and will continue to deploy capital both to grow our business and maximize shareholder return by betting on ourselves. With that, I'll open up the call for questions. Operator, can you go to the first question?

    謝謝你,麥克,大家早安。Mike 為您提供了有關收入方面和 CW 的大部分細節,因此我將提供費用、調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的自由現金流的審查,以及對我們的資本配置活動、2025 年指引的審查,以及一些估值觀點。整體而言,第四季直接營運和銷售、一般及行政費用(不包括折舊和攤銷以及公司費用)基本持平,減少了 200 萬美元。新聞和其他節目及內容成本的增加主要被本季促銷成本的減少所抵銷。2024 年第四季公司總支出為 4,800 萬美元,其中包括 2,000 萬美元的非現金薪酬支出,而 2023 年第四季公司總支出為 4,500 萬美元,其中包括 1,600 萬美元的非現金薪酬支出。300 萬美元的增加主要由於與我們的營運重組相關的一次性遣散費用,而非現金薪酬費用的增加是由於新的限制性股票授予以及授予時間,部分抵消了儲備金的釋放等因素。2024 年第四季的折舊和攤提為 2.2 億美元,而去年同期為 2.1 億美元,增加了 1,000 萬美元。其中,我們對調整後 EBITDA 的定義包括 2024 年第四季與轉播權攤銷相關的 9,800 萬美元,而 2023 年第四季為 8,700 萬美元。廣播權攤銷增加 1100 萬美元,主要由於 CW 的節目製作成本增加,因為新收購的節目首播,但 Nexstar 其他地方的廣播權攤銷略有減少,抵消了這一增加。請注意,雖然第四季度 CW 節目攤銷額同比增長,但我們預計 2025 年 CW 節目攤銷額不會高於 2024 年。2024 年第四季權益法投資收入主要反映了我們對 TV Food Network 的 31% 的所有權,本季下降 500 萬美元,即 22%,主要與 TV Food Network 的廣告收入下降有關。但比我們最初預期的還要好。綜合來看,第四季調整後的 EBITDA 為 6.28 億美元,利潤率為 42.2%,較 2023 年第四季的 4.49 億美元增加 1.79 億美元。轉向自由現金流和調整後自由現金流的組成部分,第四季的資本支出為 3,500 萬美元,與去年第四季基本持平。第四季淨利息支出為 1.04 億美元,較 2023 年第四季減少 1,100 萬美元。以現金計算,2024 年第四季為 1.01 億美元,而 2023 年第四季為 1.13 億美元。利息支出的減少主要與 SOFR 的減少和債務餘額的減少有關。第四季營業現金稅為 6,700 萬美元,而 2023 年為 2,600 萬美元,增加了 4,100 萬美元,主要由於 2024 年選舉年政治廣告增加導致稅前營業收入增加。扣除資產處分收益和保險追償所得後,資本化軟體債務和退休金信貸的支付額為 1,100 萬美元,去年同期為 1,400 萬美元。本季度,來自 CW 合作夥伴的現金貢獻為零,而 2023 年第四季為 1500 萬美元。在第四季度,由於某些節目付款被推遲,節目攤銷成本實際上比現金付款高出 1300 萬美元。綜合考慮上述因素,2024 年第四季合併調整後自由現金流為 4.11 億美元,去年同期為 2.45 億美元。現在談到我們對 2025 年的指導,我們認為 2025 年調整後的 EBITDA 將在 15 億美元至 15.95 億美元之間。麥克已經提供了我們指引中包含的一些關鍵假設,其中包括:第一,基於用戶流失趨勢略有改善,我們預計 2025 年淨分銷收入增長將持平;;我們預計非政治廣告收入增長將略有上升,因為 CW 的增長預計將部分抵消全國和地方的一些持續阻力,而數位廣告增長預計將抵消其餘部分;由於我們的運營成本將減少到八位數; 25 年的水準再減少 25%。與我們目前預期不同的關鍵因素可能會對我們對 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 的前景產生正面或負面的影響。這些因素包括但不限於付費電視訂閱的成長或流失率、地方和全國廣告市場的健康狀況、我們以有利於公司的條款重新談判某些分銷和加盟協議,以及與我們在 TV Food Network 的 31.3% 所有權股份相關的應佔淨收入。我們不打算每季更新該指南。作為關於調整後自由現金流的一些額外指導,我們目前預計今年的資本支出為 1.2 億至 1.25 億美元,第一季的資本支出為 3,000 萬至 3,500 萬美元。根據目前殖利率曲線,我們預計 2025 年全年現金利息支出將在 3.75 億至 3.8 億美元之間,較 2024 年中期水準改善 5,500 萬美元以上。我們利用浮動利率債務工具的利差、當前 SOFR 遠期曲線和固定利率債務的息票以及債務償還預期(包括約 1.25 億美元的強制攤銷,外加少量額外償還)來預測 Nexstar 的現金利息支出。預計第一季利息支出約為 9500 萬美元。預計 2025 年全年現金稅為 2.6 億至 2.7 億美元,比 2024 年增加 2000 萬美元,因為我們現在對聯邦所得稅採用年度化方法,這使我們能夠將約 3300 萬美元的所得稅從 2024 年推遲到 2025 年。對於現金稅,我們在計算一次性和其他調整前的預估稅時使用 26% 的稅率。第一季僅包含少量的州所得稅,約 300 萬美元。提醒一下,我們使用從 2024 年稅收延期到 2025 年的現金來選擇性地償還定期貸款 B。我們將在 2025 年第二季支付這筆遞延所得稅。到 2025 年,預計節目製作支出將超過攤銷額 4,000 萬至 4,500 萬美元。主要是由於前幾年推遲了節目製作費用並投資了未來幾年的節目製作費用,其中第一季的投資約為 700 萬美元。談到我們資產負債表中的資本配置,加上本季產生的經營現金和庫存現金,我們向股東返還了 2.3 億美元,其中包括 5,200 萬美元的股息和以平均每股 167.30 美元的價格回購 1.78 億美元的股票,扣除股權歸屬後的淨流通減少了 2.7%。本年度,我們以 2.19 億美元的股利和 6.01 億美元的股票回購形式向股東返還了 8.2 億美元,佔調整後自由現金流的 68%。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日,Nexstar 的未償還債務為 65 億美元,本季減少了 1.81 億美元,因為我們按季度支付了 3,100 萬美元的攤銷款,並可選擇償還 1.5 億美元的定期貸款費用。我們季度末的現金餘額為 1.44 億美元,其中包括與 CW 相關的現金 1,600 萬美元。由於我們將 CW 指定為不受限制的子公司,因此與 CW 相關的損失未計入我們根據信用協議計算的槓桿率。因此,截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日,Nexstar 的淨第一留置權利率契約比率為 1.68 倍,遠低於我們的第一精實和唯一契約 4.25 倍。截至季末,我們對 Nexstar 的總淨槓桿率為 2.91 倍。正如非政治年份的典型情況一樣,我們預期槓桿率(以 LTM 為基礎計算,而非兩年平均值)將在 2025 年增加,因為非選舉年份的政治廣告費用明顯較低,因此調整後的 EBITDA 會下降。我們的 2025 年現金流量將首先用於履行我們的強制性義務,包括償還債務和退休金及固定收益計畫供款約 1.45 億美元、以 2,200 萬美元收購克利夫蘭電視台,以及預計 2025 年股息約 2.25 億美元。今年 1 月,我們宣布連續第 12 次增加股息,季度股息率提高了 10%,根據我們昨天的股價計算,現在的股息收益率接近 5%,正如 Perry 提到的,這使我們的股息收益率在標準普爾 400 指數成分股中位居第 94 個百分位。如果有機會,我們的剩餘現金流將用於資助收購。如果沒有有吸引力的策略性增值收購,我們計劃償還債務並回購股票。2025 年,假設沒有大規模併購,我們計劃選擇性地償還增量債務,而不是用遞延稅務現金重新借入 2024 年償還的債務。額外的可選去槓桿將使我們的資產負債表更好地為任何潛在的併購做好準備,即使沒有併購,也會使我們受益,因為許多投資者都是根據 EBITDA 倍數來對我們進行估值的。根據該方法,任何債務削減都會在數學上增加我們的股權。我們計劃繼續回購股票,這將繼續成為我們資本配置策略的最大組成部分,尤其是考慮到我們目前的估值。整體而言,我們預計 2025 年將向股東返還近三分之二的自由現金流,與 2024 年的水準相似。在我將問題轉交給操作員之前,我想先談談 Nexstar 股票的價值主張。正如佩里在演講中提到的,Nexstar 的規模和範圍不同於更廣泛的媒體行業中的任何其他參與者,使我們能夠突破曲線,實現其他運營商無法實現的成果。雖然我們在 2024 年創下了創紀錄的營收表現,但就過去一年的股價而言,情況並非如此。因此這種脫節創造了機會。根據目前的市場估計和截至昨日的收盤價,儘管我們實現了頂級利潤率和自由現金流轉換、最高的股息收益率和最高的股東總資本回報率,但我們的市盈率為 2425 倍,為 6.3 倍 EBITDA,自由現金流收益率為 21%,低於同類廣播公司的中點。7 到 7.5 倍的頂級本益比意味著中間價為 197 美元,比昨日收盤價高出 35%。如果我們採用華納兄弟和派拉蒙對其有線電視網絡的相同估值,而有線電視網絡的前景與廣播行業不同,收入軌跡也不如我們所料,這些估值包括 10.5% 的加權平均資本成本和-3% 的永久增長率,但假設 Nextar 的平均調整後自由現金流為 24-25,應用這些收盤,計算 21% 的平均調整後自由現金流為 24-25,應用這些收盤,213% 的每股價格為 30%,昨 3% 為 43%。如果放鬆管制得以實現,我們能夠像過去一樣進行增值收購,而付費電視用戶流失確實發生,那麼 Nexstar 和我們的行業就應該重新評級。所以這應該是雙贏的。短期成長將使我們的價值像我們這樣的高端曲線彎曲公司一樣受到重視,然後水漲船高,DREG 和緩慢的人員流失使所有媒體船隻浮起來。我們相信我們股票的近期和長期價值,並將繼續部署資本,以發展我們的業務並透過押注自己來最大化股東回報。現在,我將開始回答大家的提問。接線員,您能回答第一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press to remove yourself from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing . One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Stephen Cahall with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

    謝謝。我們現在將進行問答環節。如果您想提問,請按電話鍵盤上的星號 1。確認音將表示您的線路已處於問題佇列。您可以按 將自己從佇列中移除。對於使用揚聲器裝置的參與者,可能需要先拿起聽筒再按下。請稍等片刻,我們正在調查問題。我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Stephen Cahall。請繼續回答您的問題。

  • Stephen Cahall - Analyst

    Stephen Cahall - Analyst

  • Yeah, thank you. So just on M&A, Perry, you have a great acquisition history between Media General and Tribune. I don't recall the free cash flow accretion off the top of my head of those deals, but I know it was significant. Nowadays, your rates are higher, but a lot of the peers are also higher. So do you still think there's a lot of similar levels of accretion for broadcast M&A opportunities as there have been historically, if we do see some deregulation? And related to that, Do you look harder, potentially, at how spectrum assets fit together when you think about broadcast and consolidation over the next decade? And then Leanne, just on the EBITDA outlook for the year, impressive work that you're doing on cost. I'm just wondering, is there any cost to achieve that is included in EBITDA or that impacts free cash flow? Or is all of that behind you and was largely done in 2024? with the benefits, that eight-figure number that you talked about rolling through in the guidance for 2025. Thank you.

    是的,謝謝。就併購而言,佩里,Media General 和 Tribune 之間有著豐富的收購歷史。我不記得這些交易帶給我的自由現金流成長情況,但我知道它意義重大。如今,您的費率更高了,但許多同行的費率也更高。那麼,如果我們確實看到一些放鬆管制,您是否仍然認為廣播併購機會的成長水準與歷史上類似?與此相關的是,當您考慮未來十年的廣播和整合時,您是否會更加認真地考慮頻譜資產如何組合在一起?然後 Leanne,就今年的 EBITDA 前景而言,您在成本方面所做的工作令人印象深刻。我只是想知道,是否有任何成本包含在 EBITDA 中或會影響自由現金流?或者所有這些都已成為過去,並且大部分已在 2024 年完成?加上這些好處,您談到的八位數數字將在 2025 年的指引中實現。謝謝。

  • Perry Sook - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Perry Sook - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, Steven, that's a lot. Let me try and take the first part of that. As it relates to Media General and Tribune, they were 40% and 60% accretive acquisitions, which we think were probably at the high-water mark of what we would be able to achieve on scale M&A. Having said that, we have been consistent in saying that Any acquisition to clear our screen is going to have to be substantially more accretive than buying back our stock, which is a high teens to 20% yield on our equity. So we will maintain that same discipline. We are obviously in conversations and out there looking If there's a love connection and regulations change, that would permit the acquisition to go forward. And it's highly accretive. It's something we would strongly consider doing in the broadcast television space and the digital space. But if not, Leanne's told you, you know, Plan B would be to continue to buy back stock and pay down debt.

    嗯,史蒂文,那太多了。讓我嘗試理解其中的第一部分。就 Media General 和 Tribune 而言,它們的增值收購比例分別為 40% 和 60%,我們認為這可能是我們在規模併購中能夠實現的最高水準。話雖如此,我們一直堅持認為,任何旨在清理我們螢幕的收購都必須比回購我們的股票更具增值性,而回購股票的收益率高達 10% 到 20%。因此我們將保持同樣的紀律。顯然,我們正在進行談判並尋找機會,如果有合適的合作和法規變化,那麼收購就可以繼續進行。而且它具有很高的增值性。我們強烈考慮在廣播電視領域和數位領域開展此項工作。但如果不是,Leanne 告訴你,B 計畫就是繼續回購股票並償還債務。

  • Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And then, Steve, your other question, the expenses related to those Operating cost savings are really behind us. You saw we took about a $12 million one-time restructuring charge in the fourth quarter that got added back to our EBITDA, and that was really the cost to implement that.

    然後,史蒂夫,你的另一個問題是,與這些營運成本節約相關的費用實際上已經過去了。你知道我們在第四季度花費了大約 1200 萬美元的一次性重組費用,這筆費用被加回到我們的 EBITDA 中,這實際上是實施這項計劃的成本。

  • Stephen Cahall - Analyst

    Stephen Cahall - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Dan Kurnos with Benchmark. Please proceed with your question.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Benchmark 的 Dan Kurnos。請繼續回答您的問題。

  • Dan Kurnos - Analyst

    Dan Kurnos - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Very comprehensive, guys. Maybe first one, just on the sports front, what do you guys make of Major League Baseball and ESPN parting ways? Do you expect there's any opportunity for local broadcasts to finally get access to the laggard child, so to speak? And then just to be clear, I guess, Leanne, on the distribution, or Mike, I guess, are you assuming that the recent subtrend holds for the year? And can we just get a sense of the timing of the renewals? We got the CW in Q4, but the other 60%. Is that all back-end weighted? Thanks.

    是的,謝謝。早安.非常全面,夥計們。也許首先要問的是運動方面,你們如何看待美國職棒大聯盟 (Major League Baseball) 和 ESPN 的分道揚鑣?您是否認為地方廣播最終有機會接觸到落後兒童?然後,我想,Leanne,為了明確分佈情況,或者 Mike,我想,您是否假設最近的子趨勢會持續一年?我們能了解一下續約的時間嗎?我們在第四季度獲得了 CW,但剩下的 60%。這都是後端加權的嗎?謝謝。

  • Michael Biard - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Michael Biard - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah, I'll take the last one first. Yeah, they're back-end weighted, but I'm being specific in the second half of the year. With respect to sports, Listen, I think what you're seeing, we'll see where MLB shakes out, but we are confident that they will look for broader platforms. We did note that Commissioner Manfred referred to cable as a shrinking platform. So similar with what we saw with some of the deals that we've done, also with the deal that NBA did, the net migration vis-a-vis broadcast has been to increase the number of games on broadcast rather than move to cable. So we think there will be opportunities out there. We're less interested in the local opportunities given the fact that the RSNs seem to have kind of gotten back on their feet and, at least for the time being, taken the lion's share of the local games. but at the national level we think there will continue to be opportunities and we certainly think that our performance at the CW has put us on the map for any rights holder out there looking to do deals in the future.

    是的,我先選最後一個。是的,它們是後端加權的,但我具體指的是下半年。關於運動,聽著,我想你所看到的,我們將看到美國職棒大聯盟 (MLB) 的表現,但我們相信他們會尋找更廣闊的平台。我們確實注意到曼弗雷德委員將有線電視稱為一個正在縮小的平台。與我們所做的一些交易類似,也與 NBA 所做的交易類似,相對於廣播的淨遷移是為了增加廣播比賽的數量,而不是轉向有線電視。因此我們認為那裡會存在機會。由於新加坡海軍似乎已經重新站起來,並且至少目前佔據了當地比賽的最大份額,因此我們對當地的機會不太感興趣。但在國家層面,我們認為仍將有機會,而且我們確實認為,我們在 CW 上的表現已使我們成為任何未來尋求交易的權利持有者眼中值得關注的對象。

  • Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And then just to elaborate on what Mike said and respond to your question in terms of subscriber trends, our guidance assumes a slight improvement in the rate of subscriber attrition as is consistent with what the market is expecting in general and then because those contracts are all back-end weighted. The substantial majority of the benefit will be in 2026.

    然後,我來詳細說明一下麥克所說的內容,並回答您關於用戶趨勢的問題,我們的指導假設用戶流失率會略有改善,這與市場普遍預期一致,而且因為這些合約都是後端加權的。絕大部分福利將在 2026 年發放。

  • Dan Kurnos - Analyst

    Dan Kurnos - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you both.

    完美的。謝謝你們兩位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Benjamin Soff with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的班傑明‧索夫。請繼續回答您的問題。

  • Benjamin Soff - Analyst

    Benjamin Soff - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for the question. I'm wondering if you can talk about the progress you're seeing with respect to deregulation and what's your level of optimism that we could see changes this year? And then maybe could you talk a little bit more about the EdgeBeamJV, how that helps you accomplish your goals and the progress you've made on ATSC to date? Thanks.

    早安.謝謝你的提問。我想知道您是否可以談談您在放鬆管制方面看到的進展,以及您對今年能看到變化的樂觀程度如何?然後您能否再多談談 EdgeBeamJV,它如何幫助您實現目標以及迄今為止您在 ATSC 上的進展?謝謝。

  • Perry Sook - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Perry Sook - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thank you. Yeah, I've spent four different days in Washington, D.C. since the first of the year, all on the Hill visiting with lawmakers regarding the need for deregulation and and I feel the prospect is as good as it has been in my career to see meaningful ownership regulatory reform come to the broadcast industry. No one can, with a straight face, defend the current rules in the current environment and I think there's a real understanding that preserving local journalism at the local market level is in the country's national interest and to do that you've got to have strong companies and strong companies need to be able to get bigger and grow and innovate. And so that message, quite frankly, is resonating on both sides of the aisle. I think you'll see continued movement both at the FCC and the DOJ in terms of understanding that current regulations are outmoded and we are obviously pressing pressing for progress on all fronts. And I think you'll see evidence of progress being made as the year goes on. Obviously, at the FCC, Chairman Carr has called this a break-glass moment for local television. I know he is very interested in seeing the medium survive and have the ability to prosper and to continue to support local journalism and innovate. and so I think I take him at his word obviously as the year goes on and the commission is fully constituted with five commissioners, three Republicans, two Democrats, you'll see activity increase under his purview. As it relates to the NextGen TV generation and ATSE 3.0 and our consortium, NextGen already reaches 75% of the US population. . Our streaming and digital competitors are rapidly advancing, and without our ability to modernize and innovate, we risk, local broadcasters risk, falling behind, ultimately putting the future of our free local service and local journalism at jeopardy. And individual broadcasters can't complete this transition alone, which is why we developed a consortium with Scripps and Gray and Sinclair. And there was a question earlier from Steven about Spectrum. This consortium stitches together Spectrum that reaches 97%, which we view as a virtual nationwide footprint that will allow us to innovate and a set transition date would provide certainty to all the stakeholders, allowing the TV set manufacturers as well as the broadcasters, the pay TV operators, all to plan effectively. And as you know, at this point, the NAV's petition for rulemaking, which is fairly unprecedented and certainly as it relates to the spectrum, contemplates a two-phase transition plan which would ensure an orderly implementation. Phase one would be in February of 2028. Stations in the top 55 markets which reach about 70% of the US population would complete the transition fully to ATSC 3.0 and remaining stations would complete that transition on or about February 2030. I think it's important to note that not only is regulatory clarity essential to completing this shift It's time-sensitive because our competitors are continuing to advance. We want to be free to be able to innovate and provide additional services not only for viewers but for businesses and the public at large. But that the industry, the broadcast industry, is fully united behind this effort. And so we think with all of those factors coming together, the prospect of spectrum monetization that I've been talking about for half a dozen years, I think, is upon us. And this consortium has a first-mover advantage having stitched together a spectrum that is a near nationwide footprint. So we're very optimistic that progress will come both to deregulation and to innovation of next-gen TV under the current administration.

    好吧,謝謝你。是的,自今年年初以來,我已經在華盛頓特區呆了四天,都在國會山與立法者討論放鬆管制的必要性,我認為看到廣播行業實現有意義的所有權監管改革的前景和我職業生涯中一樣好。在當前的環境下,沒有人能夠面不改色地捍衛當前的規則,我認為人們真正認識到,在當地市場層面保護當地新聞業符合國家利益,而要做到這一點,就必須有強大的公司,而強大的公司需要能夠發展壯大和創新。坦白說,這一訊息引起了兩黨的共鳴。我認為,你會看到聯邦通信委員會和司法部都繼續採取行動,認識到目前的法規已經過時,我們顯然正在敦促各方面取得進展。我認為隨著時間的推移,你會看到取得進展的證據。顯然,在聯邦通訊委員會,卡爾主席稱這是地方電視台的決裂時刻。我知道他非常希望看到媒體生存下來、繁榮發展並繼續支持當地新聞業和創新。所以我認為我相信他的話,顯然隨著時間的推移,委員會將完全由五名委員組成,三名共和黨人,兩名民主黨人,你會看到在他的職權範圍內活動會增加。就 NextGen 電視世代和 ATSE 3.0 以及我們的聯盟而言,NextGen 已經覆蓋了美國人口的 75%。。我們的串流媒體和數位競爭對手正在迅速發展,如果我們沒有現代化和創新的能力,我們,當地廣播公司,就會面臨落後的風險,最終使我們的免費本地服務和本地新聞業的未來陷入危險。單一廣播公司無法獨自完成這項轉變,這就是我們與 Scripps、Gray 和 Sinclair 組成聯盟的原因。之前 Steven 曾經提出過有關 Spectrum 的問題。該聯盟整合了高達 97% 的頻譜,我們將其視為一個虛擬的全國性足跡,這將使我們能夠進行創新,而設定的過渡日期將為所有利益相關者提供確定性,使電視機製造商以及廣播公司、付費電視運營商都能有效地進行規劃。如您所知,目前,NAV 的規則制定請求是相當史無前例的,並且肯定與頻譜有關,該請求考慮了一個兩階段的過渡計劃,以確保有序實施。第一階段將於 2028 年 2 月進行。覆蓋美國約 70% 人口的前 55 個市場的電台將完全完成向 ATSC 3.0 的過渡,其餘電台也將在 2030 年 2 月左右完成過渡。我認為值得注意的是,監管明確性不僅對於完成這一轉變至關重要,而且它對時間敏感,因為我們的競爭對手正在不斷進步。我們希望能夠自由地創新,並為觀眾、企業和廣大民眾提供附加服務。但整個產業,包括廣播業,都團結一致,共同努力。因此,我們認為,綜合考慮所有這些因素,我六年來一直在談論的頻譜貨幣化的前景已經到來。該聯盟擁有先發優勢,其覆蓋範圍幾乎覆蓋全國。因此,我們非常樂觀地認為,在現任政府的領導下,放鬆管制和下一代電視的創新都將取得進展。

  • Benjamin Soff - Analyst

    Benjamin Soff - Analyst

  • Great. Appreciate the insight. Thank you.

    偉大的。感謝您的見解。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners. Please proceed with your questions.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Huber Research Partners 的 Craig Huber。請繼續提出您的問題。

  • Craig Huber - Analyst

    Craig Huber - Analyst

  • Great, thank you. I have a few questions. I'll just do them one at a time to make it easier. On ATSC 3.0, Perry, just talk a little bit further about your expectations, how the revenue ramp for your company and the rest of your consortium may play out. How many more years do you think it'll be? It could be significant for you guys.

    太好了,謝謝。我有幾個問題。我將一次只做一件事以使事情變得更容易。關於 ATSC 3.0,Perry,請進一步談談您的期望,以及貴公司和其他財團的營收成長將如何實現。您認為還要多少年呢?這對你們來說可能意義重大。

  • Perry Sook - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Perry Sook - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think as most new businesses evolve, they start slowly and then grow suddenly. There are a number of things that have to happen. We need to be able to sunset the ATSC 1.0 or current transmission schema requirement, which would free up more spectrum for innovation. Then we have to complete the transition to 3.0, which would enable all stations in the market to fully participate in any data casting opportunities that might present themselves. And again, I think that if we are able to meet the transition date of February 28 that we've proposed along with NAB in the petition for rulemaking, that's when I think you could see meaningful progress being made. In the meantime, we have signed clients and we have a lot of interest from others, particularly in the automotive space, about the connected car and video and television in the car. as well as providing service updates with a better completion rate than the current satellite-based updates provide. There's also the opportunity to develop a stronger national security with the BPS system, which is the Broadcast Positioning System, which would be a backup to our current GPS system. The United States is the only industrialized country in the world without a backup to its GPS system. and I don't have to tell you what happens if GPS goes out, but we can provide a terrestrial-based system that would be a backup to the current satellite-based system, less vulnerable to disruption and we have developed the proof of concept of the timing element of this already with an atomic clock in Colorado with NIST and I won't get into the wonky weeds of all the development that's going on there, Both the DOT and the DOD have said it's in our national interest to have a backup GPS system, and we think that this transition would enable this industry, our industry, to provide this, and it would be superior to a second satellite-based system. So, again, I think you'll see announcements of clients and trials beginning and continuing throughout this year and the next couple, and I think that it would be probably 2028 if we were able to effect the transition of the top 50 markets, top 55 markets, to a full ATSC 3.0 transmission schema, I think that's when you'll see revenue take a step function forward.

    嗯,我認為大多數新企業在發展過程中,都是起步緩慢,然後突然發展壯大。有許多事情必須發生。我們需要能夠終止 ATSC 1.0 或目前的傳輸模式要求,這將釋放更多的頻譜用於創新。然後,我們必須完成向 3.0 的過渡,這將使市場上的所有電台能夠充分參與可能出現的任何資料播送機會。而且,我認為,如果我們能夠實現與 NAB 一起在規則制定請願書中提出的 2 月 28 日的過渡日期,到那時我們就會看到有意義的進展。同時,我們已經簽約了客戶,並且有很多其他人對我們感興趣,特別是在汽車領域,對連網汽車以及車載視訊和電視感興趣。並提供比目前基於衛星的更新具有更好完成率的服務更新。還有機會利用 BPS 系統(廣播定位系統)來發展更強大的國家安全,它將成為我們目前 GPS 系統的備份。美國是世界上唯一沒有GPS系統備援的工業化國家。我不用告訴您如果 GPS 出現故障會發生什麼,但是我們可以提供一個地面系統,作為當前衛星系統的備份,該系統不易受到干擾,並且我們已經使用科羅拉多州的原子鐘與 NIST 合作開發了計時元素的概念驗證,我不會深入討論那裡正在進行的所有開發細節,交通部和國防部都表示擁有備用系統系統,它將使該系統符合我們的國家利益,並且我們認為這種系統因此,我認為您會看到客戶和試驗的公告開始並持續到今年和明年,我認為如果我們能夠實現前 50 個市場、前 55 個市場的過渡,那麼很可能到 2028 年才能實現完整的 ATSC 3.0 傳輸模式,我認為那時您會看到收入向前邁進一步。

  • Craig Huber - Analyst

    Craig Huber - Analyst

  • And then more near-term question. You guys just talked a little bit further about core advertising trends near-term. Are there any maybe national advertising categories that you guys have seen any green shoots and any significant change there against positive or negative?

    然後是更多近期問題。你們剛剛進一步討論了近期的核心廣告趨勢。你們是否看到任何國家廣告類別的復甦跡像以及任何顯著的變化(無論是積極的還是消極的)?

  • Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • There's nothing specifically to call out positive on the advertising side. I think on the negative side, we talked about insurance and auto being two categories that have been more negative for us in the first quarter.

    在廣告方面並沒有特別值得稱道的正面因素。我認為從負面來看,我們談到了保險和汽車,這是第一季對我們影響更負面的兩個類別。

  • Craig Huber - Analyst

    Craig Huber - Analyst

  • Maybe you could just talk a little bit further about what you're expecting for overall core advertising trends in the first quarter year-over-year.

    也許您可以進一步談談您對第一季整體核心廣告趨勢的預期。

  • Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So what we talked about was that the first quarter core advertising trends are going to be down in the low single-digit range.

    因此,我們討論的是第一季核心廣告趨勢將下降至個位數以下。

  • Craig Huber - Analyst

    Craig Huber - Analyst

  • So what is it that you're seeing? That's obviously a much better number than you guys were able to do all four quarters last year. Obviously, part of it was hurt by crowding out, but what are you seeing better in particular that you want to highlight?

    那你看到的是什麼?這顯然比你們去年四個季度的成績好得多。顯然,部分原因在於擠佔效應,但您認為哪些方面特別好以至於想要強調呢?

  • Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • It's just a general improvement in the trend. It's not like anything heroic. I think we said that about half of the fourth quarter core decline is related to crowd out. So if you back that out, you get to something just shy of 5% decline in the fourth quarter, which low single digits is not too much of a difference from there, but we also have the benefit of improving CW performance given all the new great sports content we've got on the air now.

    這只是整體趨勢的改善。這根本就不是什麼英雄事蹟。我認為我們說過第四季核心下滑約有一半與擠出效應有關。因此,如果將這一數字推翻,您會發現第四季度的降幅略低於 5%,這個低個位數與當時的降幅並沒有太大區別,而且考慮到我們現在播放的所有新的精彩體育內容,我們也受益於 CW 性能的提高。

  • Craig Huber - Analyst

    Craig Huber - Analyst

  • And sorry, if I could just ask one more. On the CW losses, you guys talked about it being down 25% or perhaps more in the new year. That would probably put it down to a loss of roughly $100 million, maybe a little bit better than that. How are you feeling about the point in time when you might be able to get to break even? Do you still think by late this year, early next year? How are you feeling about that, please?

    抱歉,我可以再問一個問題嗎?關於 CW 的損失,你們談到新年其損失將達到 25% 甚至更多。這可能會使損失達到約 1 億美元,或許比這更好一點。您對於何時能夠達到收支平衡有什麼感覺?您還認為會是今年年底或明年年初嗎?請問您對此有何感想?

  • Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, we, you know, what we've said is, you know, we think we expect to get to profitability at some point during 2026, and that's still part of the Our outlook and what we're striving to achieve. We're on target to achieve that.

    是的,您知道,我們說過,我們預計在 2026 年的某個時候實現盈利,這仍然是我們的願景的一部分,也是我們努力實現的目標。我們正朝著這個目標前進。

  • Craig Huber - Analyst

    Craig Huber - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thanks, both of you.

    好的,太好了。謝謝你們二位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Aaron Watts with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

    謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Aaron Watts。請繼續回答您的問題。

  • Aaron Watts - Analyst

    Aaron Watts - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for having me on. You've covered a lot of ground, so I'll just have one question. I've asked you in the past about moving towards investment-grade status on your whole cap stack, because certainly your stewardship of the balance sheet has opened the door for that discussion. But in light of the speculation around deregulation in the space and your commentary there today, maybe I can ask about the balance sheet in a different way. How high would you be willing to take your leverage in the current environment to participate in industry consolidation?

    你好,感謝邀請我。你已經談了很多內容,所以我只想問一個問題。我過去曾問過您關於將整個資本堆疊轉向投資級地位的問題,因為您對資產負債表的管理無疑為這一討論打開了大門。但考慮到圍繞該領域放鬆管制的猜測以及您今天的評論,也許我可以用不同的方式詢問資產負債表的問題。在當前環境下,您願意發揮多大的作用來參與產業整合?

  • Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I don't think we're looking to max out on leverage and overextend ourselves in any way. I think the question is, what is the comfortable leverage that the market could bear? I know that the rating agencies always give you a little bit of an 18-month sort of time period to get your leverage back down to maintain ratings. I think we'll have to just look and see this on a case-by-case basis and look at the deal, but we're not looking to create new headlines regarding being highly leveraged. That's one of the things that we have not done as a company historically.

    我認為我們不會以任何方式最大化地利用槓桿或過度擴張自己的力量。我認為問題在於市場能夠承受的舒適槓桿是多少?我知道評級機構總是會給你大概 18 個月的時間來降低你的槓桿率,以維持評級。我認為我們必須根據具體情況來看待這個問題並研究交易,但我們不希望製造有關高槓桿的新頭條新聞。這是我們公司歷史上從未做過的事情之一。

  • Aaron Watts - Analyst

    Aaron Watts - Analyst

  • Okay, got it. Thanks, Leigh Ann.

    好的,明白了。謝謝,Leigh Ann。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Scholl with Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question.

    謝謝。謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Barrington Research 的 Patrick Scholl。請繼續回答您的問題。

  • Patrick Scholl - Analyst

    Patrick Scholl - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you. With the CW, and you mentioned you have a lot of renewals coming up later this year, with all of the sports rights that you have added to that network, could you maybe talk about any benefits you're seeing on the distribution side and the contribution that those rights are creating for either your affiliate partners or for your distribution revenue so far?

    你好,謝謝。您曾提到,今年稍後 CW 將有很多續約,而且您已將所有體育賽事的版權​​添加到該網絡,您能否談談在分銷方面您看到的好處以及這些版權目前為止為您的附屬合作夥伴或分銷收入帶來的貢獻?

  • Michael Biard - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Michael Biard - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Well, I think to date, in the lifecycle of the CW, I guess I would think of it as we're in the show-me phase of the lifecycle, right? And that's exactly what we're doing. We've been talking about programming that we've acquired and what was coming for quite a while, and it's been gratifying really over the last couple of weeks, but even longer than that, over the last couple of months as NXT came online and we saw the end of last year's performance with NASCAR on the last eight races that we sub-licensed from NBC. So in the world of distribution, you need to prove it out before you can actually monetize it. That's been our experience. And so we're in the proving out phase, and we'll move into the monetization phase going forward. So no surprise, the value of programming in the distribution world is heavily centered in live programming. It distinguishes linear programming from SVOD programming. And the value in linear is in live news and sports. And certainly from the sports side, you can see that notwithstanding headlines on subscriber erosion, big-time sports continue to draw significant audiences, most recently with the Super Bowl setting yet another record. So we're optimistic with the performance. of the programming that will translate into performance and the distribution deals that we have on the near horizon.

    嗯,我認為到目前為止,在 CW 的生命週期中,我想我會認為我們處於生命週期的展示階段,對嗎?這正是我們正在做的事情。我們一直在談論我們已經獲得的節目以及即將發生的事情,並且在過去幾周里這確實令人欣慰,但甚至比這更長的時間,在過去的幾個月裡,隨著 NXT 的上線,我們看到了去年與 NASCAR 在我們從 NBC 獲得分許可的最後八場比賽中的表現。因此在分銷領域中,您需要先證明這一點,然後才能真正將其貨幣化。這就是我們的經驗。因此,我們正處於驗證階段,未來我們將進入貨幣化階段。因此,毫不奇怪,節目在發行領域的價值主要集中在直播節目上。它將線性規劃與 SVOD 規劃區分開來。線性的價值在於現場新聞和體育。當然,從體育方面來看,儘管有關於訂閱用戶減少的報道,但大型體育賽事仍然吸引著大量觀眾,最近超級碗又創下了一項紀錄。因此我們對業績表現感到樂觀。這些節目將轉化為演出,並且我們近期將達成分銷協議。

  • Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Lee Gliha - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And I would just want to just supplement something Mike said because he's talking prospectively and talking about the differential between what we get for CW versus some of the other affiliations. We actually have been able to grow our distribution revenue with the CW to date with the new programming slate. We just think there's more to come.

    我只是想補充一下麥克所說的話,因為他是從前瞻性的角度談論我們從 CW 獲得的收益與其他一些聯盟獲得的收益之間的差異。事實上,透過新的節目單,我們已經能夠增加 CW 的發行收入。我們只是認為接下來還會有更多。

  • Michael Biard - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Michael Biard - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Agreed.

    同意。

  • Patrick Scholl - Analyst

    Patrick Scholl - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we have reached the end of the question and answer session. I would like to turn the floor back to Perry Sook for closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。我想請佩里蘇克 (Perry Sook) 作最後發言。

  • Perry Sook - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Perry Sook - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you very much. In closing, I'd like to just tell you all we remain confident in Nexstar's positioning to deliver and continue to deliver long-term growth and value for our shareholders. Our financial results and competitive positioning in the industry, coupled with organic growth opportunities, as well as the potential of deregulation, all position us very well for continued success and free cash flow growth. When you look at the immense value we've created over the years and our future prospects, Nexstar's share price has never been more attractive, even with the early moves today. We're consistently proving our ability to outperform, and if history's taught us anything, it's that, with the long term, don't bet against Nexstar. There's a lot more to come. I'd like to ask you all to stay tuned. I want to thank our teams for their hard work and dedication, as well as our partners and shareholders for our ongoing support. We look forward to updating you on our next earnings call. Thank you very much, everyone.

    非常感謝。最後,我想告訴大家,我們仍然對 Nexstar 的定位充滿信心,相信它能夠並將繼續為我們的股東帶來長期成長和價值。我們的財務表現和行業競爭地位,加上有機成長機會以及放鬆管制的潛力,都為我們持續取得成功和自由現金流成長奠定了良好的基礎。當您回顧我們多年來創造的巨大價值和未來前景時,您會發現,即使今天早些時候有所動作,Nexstar 的股價也從未如此有吸引力。我們一直在證明我們超越對手的能力,如果歷史教會了我們什麼的話,那就是從長遠來看,不要與 Nexstar 做對。接下來還會有更多內容。請大家繼續關注。我要感謝我們團隊的辛勤工作和奉獻精神,以及我們的合作夥伴和股東的持續支持。我們期待在下次收益電話會議上向您通報最新情況。非常感謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And this concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路。感謝您的參與。