Nexstar Media Group Inc (NXST) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to Nexstar Media Group's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Joe Jaffoni, Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

    美好的一天,歡迎參加 Nexstar Media Group 2023 年第四季和全年電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。我現在將會議交給投資者關係部門的 Joe Jaffoni。謝謝。請繼續,先生。

  • Joseph N. Jaffoni - Founder & President

    Joseph N. Jaffoni - Founder & President

  • Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Let me just read the safe harbor language, and then we'll get right into the call.

    謝謝約翰,大家早安。讓我讀安全港語言,然後我們就開始通話。

  • All statements and comments made by management during today's conference call, other than statements of historical fact, may be deemed forward-looking statements for purposes of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Nexstar cautions that these forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected by the forward-looking statements made during this call. For additional details on these risks and uncertainties, please see Nexstar's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and Nexstar's subsequent public filings with the SEC. Nexstar undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

    根據1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》,管理層在今天的電話會議上發表的所有聲明和評論(除歷史事實聲明外)均可能被視為前瞻性聲明。Nexstar 警告稱,這些前瞻性聲明存在風險可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議中前瞻性陳述所反映的結果有重大差異的不確定性。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多詳細信息,請參閱 Nexstar 向美國證券交易委員會提交的截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表格年度報告以及 Nexstar 隨後向 SEC 提交的公開文件。 Nexstar 不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務,無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

  • With that, it's now my pleasure to turn the conference over to your host, Nexstar Chairman and CEO, Perry Sook. Perry, please go ahead.

    現在,我很高興將會議交給東道主 Nexstar 董事長兼執行長 Perry Sook。佩里,請繼續。

  • Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Joseph, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today to discuss Nexstar's fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. With me on the call this morning are Mike Biard, our President and Chief Operating Officer; and Lee Ann Gliha, our EVP and CFO. I'll start with a summary of recent highlights and developments, followed by Mike's operational review and Lee Ann's financial review, then we'll take your questions.

    謝謝你,約瑟夫,大家早安。我們感謝您今天加入我們討論 Nexstar 第四季和 2023 年全年業績。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼營運長 Mike Biard;以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Lee Ann Gliha。我將首先總結最近的亮點和發展,然後是麥克的營運審查和李安的財務審查,然後我們將回答您的問題。

  • Nexstar's fourth quarter financial results outperformed consensus expectations in key financial metrics, including adjusted EBITDA and attributable free cash flow. Validating the enduring strength, reach and appeal of broadcast during the fourth quarter, we successfully completed all of our remaining distribution negotiations for Nexstar owned stations as we had expected. I'm also pleased to report that our partner stations were back up on DISH beginning in January.

    Nexstar 第四季財務表現在關鍵財務指標(包括調整後 EBITDA 和歸屬自由現金流)方面超越了市場普遍預期。驗證了第四季度廣播的持久實力、影響力和吸引力,我們成功完成了 Nexstar 擁有的電視台的所有剩餘分銷談判,正如我們預期的那樣。我還很高興地報告,我們的合作夥伴電台從 1 月開始已在 DISH 上恢復。

  • Nexstar's record fourth quarter and full year distribution revenue confirm once again that our distribution partners and their customers continue to value the highly rated broadcast and fast-growing cable news network programming that we provide. The completion of these agreements give us solid visibility for our distribution revenues in 2024 and beyond. As we move into 2024, an election year, we look forward to once again demonstrating the value of broadcast television to both candidates and campaigns looking to communicate to the electorate through their political advertising on our television stations. More on that in just a moment.

    Nexstar 創紀錄的第四季和全年發行收入再次證實我們的發行合作夥伴及其客戶繼續重視我們提供的高評價廣播和快速成長的有線電視新聞網節目。這些協議的完成使我們能夠清楚地了解 2024 年及以後的分銷收入。隨著我們進入 2024 年選舉年,我們期待再次向希望透過我們電視台上的政治廣告與選民溝通的候選人和競選活動展示廣播電視的價值。稍後會詳細介紹。

  • Our 2023 results extend Nexstar's long record of consistently generating substantial free cash flow, a trend that we expect to continue. On average, for the 2022-2023 cycle, Nexstar generated $1.8 billion of adjusted annual EBITDA and $1.2 billion of attributable free cash flow. Over that time frame, we returned an average of $910 million each year to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases, representing approximately 77% of our attributable annual free cash flow and 16% of our annual market capitalization to boot.

    我們 2023 年的業績延續了 Nexstar 持續產生大量自由現金流的長期記錄,我們預計這一趨勢將持續下去。平均而言,在 2022-2023 年週期中,Nexstar 產生 18 億美元的調整後年度 EBITDA 和 12 億美元的歸屬自由現金流。在此期間,我們平均每年以股利和股票回購的形式向股東返還 9.1 億美元,約占我們歸屬年度自由現金流的 77%,占我們年度市值的 16%。

  • Our strong financial track record supports our commitment to our shareholder returns and the enhancement of our shareholder value. To that end, in January, we announced an increase in our annual dividend of 25%, our 13th consecutive annual increase.

    我們良好的財務表現記錄支持我們對股東回報和提高股東價值的承諾。為此,我們在一月份宣布將年度股息增加 25%,這是我們連續第 13 年增加股息。

  • While there is and has been perpetual noise in our space, we remain highly confident in our business model, our growth opportunities and our competitive positioning. And we've demonstrated time and again over the years that whatever is occurring in our industry or ecosystem, we are capable of managing Nexstar for free cash flow and the benefit of our shareholders.

    儘管我們的領域一直存在噪音,但我們對我們的商業模式、成長機會和競爭地位仍然充滿信心。多年來,我們一再證明,無論我們的產業或生態系統發生什麼,我們都有能力管理 Nexstar,以實現自由現金流和股東利益。

  • Broadcast television delivers broadcast -- the broadest reach and the greatest share of viewership within a market, given our compelling offering of the most popular local and national sports, news and entertainment programming.

    廣播電視提供廣播——市場上覆蓋範圍最廣、收視率最高的電視節目,因為我們提供了最受歡迎的本地和國家體育、新聞和娛樂節目。

  • There's no better example of the power of broadcast television than this year's Super Bowl, which was the most watched television program since the 1969 moon landing, which I also watched by the way. The enduring strength of the broadcast platform is further demonstrated by the extraordinary local viewership generated in Kansas City and San Francisco, which received a record-breaking 80-plus share of TV viewing and a more than 75% share of TV viewing across the top 34 metered markets.

    沒有比今年的超級盃更好的例子來說明廣播電視的力量了,這是自 1969 年登月以來收視率最高的電視節目,順便說一句,我也觀看了該節目。堪薩斯市和舊金山產生的非凡本地收視率進一步證明了該廣播平台的持久實力,該地區的電視收視份額達到破紀錄的 80% 以上,並且在前 34 名電視收視份額中佔據超過 75%計量市場。

  • And for all the hype surrounding the Peacock playoff game and it's 23 million viewers on broadcast, a less competitive wild card game that was moved to a Monday because of bad weather generated 31 million viewers and the Chiefs Bills playoff game generated 50 million viewers, more than twice the Peacock game. That's the power of broadcast television.

    儘管圍繞孔雀隊季後賽的比賽進行了大肆宣傳,並且有2,300 萬觀眾收看,但由於惡劣天氣而改至週一進行的競爭性較弱的外卡比賽卻吸引了3,100 萬觀眾,而酋長比爾隊季後賽則吸引了5,000 萬觀眾,更多比孔雀遊戲的兩倍多。這就是廣播電視的力量。

  • Mike was at FOX alone who will share our sports on sports streaming, our thoughts on sports streaming in a moment. And while it's true the industry is constantly evolving, the volatility in Nexstar's share price is not really reflective of what's actually going on in our business. And this has been the case for several years. We keep executing on our playbook, making return-focused growth investments and decisions and delivering excellent results and returns for shareholders, and we plan to continue to do so.

    麥克獨自在福克斯,他將在體育串流媒體上分享我們的體育賽事,以及我們對體育串流媒體的想法。雖然產業確實在不斷發展,但 Nexstar 股價的波動並不能真正反映我們業務的實際情況。這種情況已經持續好幾年了。我們繼續執行我們的劇本,做出以回報為中心的成長投資和決策,為股東提供卓越的績效和回報,我們計劃繼續這樣做。

  • Before offering some comments on 2024, I'll briefly review a few key highlights from the quarter and the year. NewsNation remains the fastest-growing cable news network in prime and has now surpassed MSNBC in cable distribution. The power and strength of our collective media assets enabled us to secure the final GOP presidential primary debate last year before the Iowa caucuses for NewsNation, which we simulcast on the CW. That was an impressive feat for a 3-year old news network, especially considering them the prior debates were on FOX and NBC. The event delivered more than 4 million combined viewers with NewsNation garnering the largest audience in its history. NewsNation continued to add programming and news talent throughout the year and we're well on our way to become a 24/7 cable news network this year.

    在對 2024 年發表一些評論之前,我將簡要回顧一下本季度和本年度的一些重要亮點。 NewsNation 仍然是黃金時期成長最快的有線電視網絡,目前在有線電視發行方面已超過 MSNBC。我們集體媒體資產的力量和力量使我們能夠確保去年在愛荷華州 NewsNation 預選之前舉行最後一場共和黨總統初選辯論,我們在 CW 上同步轉播該辯論。對於一個成立 3 年的新聞網絡來說,這是一項令人印象深刻的壯舉,尤其是考慮到他們之前的辯論是在福克斯和 NBC 上進行的。該活動共吸引了超過 400 萬觀眾,NewsNation 創下了歷史上最多的觀眾人數。 NewsNation 全年不斷增加節目和新聞人才,今年我們將成為 24/7 有線電視新聞網。

  • The Hill remains the #1 website for political news and views with 32 million unique monthly visitors, more than 50% bigger than each of our 2 largest competitors, Axios and Politico. Year-over-year, the Hill expanded its lead in competition -- over its competition by 7 million uniques. During 2023, we also launched The Hill branded political issues news program on NewsNation at 6:00 p.m. each night. We expand and expect that our political momentum there will continue in 2024 during the presidential election cycle.

    The Hill 仍然是排名第一的政治新聞和觀點網站,每月有 3,200 萬獨立訪客,比我們的兩個最大競爭對手 Axios 和 Politico 都多出 50% 以上。與去年同期相比,The Hill 擴大了在競爭中的領先地位,比競爭對手多了 700 萬。 2023 年期間,我們還在 NewsNation 上於下午 6 點推出了 The Hill 品牌的政治議題新聞節目。每晚。我們擴大並預計我們在那裡的政治勢頭將在 2024 年總統選舉週期內持續下去。

  • Turning to the CW. We made significant headway in 2023 on our path to profitability. First, we further streamlined the network operations improving cash flow by almost $90 million versus 2022, which was under prior ownership or 3/4 of the year. We also implemented a compelling programming lineup, including a diversified mix of entertainment, unscripted programming, sports and events. In fact, in the last few months, the CW has had a number of 1 million plus viewer nights representing the highest levels reached in the recent history for the network and clearly demonstrating that we deliver compelling programming viewers will watch.

    轉向CW。 2023 年,我們在獲利之路上取得了重大進展。首先,我們進一步簡化了網路運營,與 2022 年相比,現金流量增加了近 9,000 萬美元,2022 年的現金流量為先前所有權或 3/4。我們還實施了引人注目的節目陣容,包括娛樂、即興節目、體育和活動的多元化組合。事實上,在過去的幾個月裡,CW 的收看晚數已超過 100 萬,代表了該網絡近期歷史上達到的最高水平,並清楚地表明我們提供了觀眾願意觀看的引人注目的節目。

  • For example, in November, the ACC Florida state in the ACC, the Florida state versus North Alabama football telecast delivered the network's highest-rated Saturday night ever and the highest rating in more than 5 years across all days with more than 1.3 million average viewers peaking at 1.9 million viewers. In early December, as I mentioned, our RNC debate simulcast with NewsNation delivered more than 2.6 million viewers on the CW, peaking at over $3 million and beating NBC and FOX in 1 of their 2 prime time hours, generating the highest ratings on the CW since 2018.

    例如,11 月,ACC 佛羅裡達州對陣北阿拉巴馬州的橄欖球電視轉播帶來了該網絡有史以來收視率最高的周六晚,也是 5 年來全天收視率最高的節目,平均收視人數超過 130 萬觀眾人數達到高峰190 萬人。正如我所提到的,12 月初,我們與NewsNation 聯播的RNC 辯論在CW 上獲得了超過260 萬觀眾,收視率最高超過300 萬美元,並在NBC 和FOX 的2 個黃金時段中的1 個時段中擊敗了CW,創造了CW 的最高收視率自2018年以來。

  • Later that month, the Arizona Bowl averaged 1.1 million viewers, and we beat CBS in the time period.

    當月晚些時候,Arizona Bowl 的平均觀眾人數為 110 萬,我們在這段時間內擊敗了 CBS。

  • In mid-January, the Critic's Choice Award delivered more than 1 million total viewers, up 14% over 2023, making it the most watched show on the CW since 2020. And 1.5 weeks ago, the CW Sunday night Prime beat Fox head-to-head repeated again this past week. You noticed returning theme of growth as we start to beat our much larger network competitors with more frequency driving the value of the network for advertisers and affiliates alike. We're excited for the future, particularly as we look at the launch of WWE Next on October 1 of this year and bringing the NASCAR XFINITY Series to FOX in -- I'm sorry, to the CW in 2025.

    1 月中旬,《評論家選擇獎》的總觀眾人數超過 100 萬,比 2023 年增長 14%,成為 2020 年以來 CW 收視率最高的節目。1.5 週前,CW 週日晚間節目正面擊敗了福克斯電視台-頭部在過去的一周再次重複。您注意到成長主題再次出現,因為我們開始以更頻繁的方式擊敗規模更大的網路競爭對手,為廣告商和附屬機構等提升網路價值。我們對未來感到興奮,特別是當我們看到 WWE Next 將於今年 10 月 1 日推出,並將 NASCAR XFINITY 系列帶到 FOX 上時——對不起,是 2025 年 CW 上。

  • On the distribution front, we launched the CW network affiliations on Nexstar owned and operated stations in 5 markets, including 3 of the nation's top 15, and we expanded and extended the CW network affiliation agreements with several of our broadcast partners. In terms of advertising, we continue to focus on leveraging our collective media assets to increase monetization. In 2023, we completed our first upfront as a consolidated entity for all Nexstar National properties, including NewsNation, the CW, Antenna TV and The Hill as well as our digital offerings we added 47 new advertisers across all platforms.

    在發行方面,我們在5 個市場(包括全國排名前15 的市場中的3 個市場)的Nexstar 擁有和運營的電台上推出了CW 網路附屬協議,並且我們擴大並擴展了與我們的幾個廣播合作夥伴的CW 網路附屬協定。在廣告方面,我們繼續專注於利用我們的集體媒體資產來增加貨幣化。 2023 年,我們作為 Nexstar National 旗下所有資產(包括 NewsNation、CW、Antenna TV 和 The Hill)的合併實體完成了首個前期準備工作,並在所有平台上添加了 47 個新廣告商。

  • Last quarter, we discussed our intention to bring our national sales in-house and we've successfully transitioned all 117 local television markets to our internal national sales organization. We're executing well on this initiative so far in 2024, and we look forward to sharing our successes in future calls. We also continue to lead the industry in the deployment of ATSC 3.0 or NextGen TV, achieving our goal of reaching over 50% of the U.S. television households that now receive a NextGen TV signal from a Nexstar owned or partner station.

    上個季度,我們討論了將全國銷售納入內部的意圖,並已成功將所有 117 個當地電視市場轉移到我們內部的全國銷售組織。 2024 年到目前為止,我們在這項措施上執行得很好,我們期待在未來的電話會議中分享我們的成功經驗。我們也繼續在 ATSC 3.0 或 NextGen TV 部署方面處於行業領先地位,實現了覆蓋超過 50% 的美國電視家庭的目標,這些家庭現在從 Nexstar 自營或合作夥伴電視台接收 NextGen 電視訊號。

  • Looking ahead to 2024, Nexstar is in a strong position to benefit from the anticipated record level of political spending in the presidential election cycle. First, with the broadest reach and the greatest share of local viewership, broadcast television continues to be the medium of choice for campaigns and packs to efficiently reach and influence voters. Second, the voter demo is now the broadcast demo with 64% of the people who voted in 2022, aged 50-plus according to Pew Research.

    展望 2024 年,Nexstar 處於有利地位,可以從總統選舉週期中預期創紀錄的政治支出水準中受益。首先,廣播電視擁有最廣泛的覆蓋率和最大的當地收視率,它仍然是競選活動和宣傳活動的首選媒介,可以有效地接觸和影響選民。其次,根據皮尤研究中心 (Pew Research) 的數據,2022 年投票的選民中有 64% 的人年齡在 50 歲以上,選民演示現在變成了廣播演示。

  • We expect, thirdly, to see contested congressional races more of them actually than ever before in both the House and the Senate with both chambers up for grabs and several retirements creating new open seats to be contested. Finally, Nexstar Scale leads us well positioned regardless of where the money flows. We have stations covering 91% of this year's gubernatorial and senate races and 82% of the House races. This election cycle is projected to generate in excess of $10 billion in political advertising reported on a gross revenue basis based on ad impact and DIVX CMAC estimates, with about $5 billion of that total expected to be spent on television.

    第三,我們預計眾議院和參議院的國會競選實際上會比以往任何時候都多,兩院都可供爭奪,而且一些退休人員會創造新的空缺席位供爭奪。最後,無論資金流向何處,Nexstar Scale 都能讓我們處於有利地位。我們的電視台覆蓋了今年 91% 的州長和參議院競選以及 82% 的眾議院競選。根據廣告影響和 DIVX CMAC 的估計,以總收入計算,本次選舉週期的政治廣告預計將產生超過 100 億美元,其中約 50 億美元預計將用於電視。

  • Historically, Nexstar has captured a low-teens percentage of local television broadcast spending, which we will book on a net basis after agency commissions. We have a well-established playbook for maximizing political revenue that our teams advance and refined with every election cycle as America's largest local television broadcasting company, we have the scale and resources to produce and distribute the most comprehensive political news and live debate coverage in our market and across the nation.

    從歷史上看,Nexstar 佔據了當地電視廣播支出的較低比例,我們將在獲得機構佣金後以淨額預訂。作為美國最大的地方電視廣播公司,我們擁有一套完善的政治收入最大化策略,我們的團隊在每個選舉週期都會推進和完善該策略,我們擁有規模和資源來製作和分發最全面的政治新聞和現場辯論報道。市場及全國各地。

  • Further enhancing our political opportunity in early January, we entered into a multiyear time brokerage agreement KAZT-TV in Phoenix the nation's 11th largest EMA in 1 of the more critical important markets in the 24 election cycle. Content synergies between our local and national assets, including NewsNation, The Hill and The CW will also be positive contributors to these efforts. Together, the distinct competitive advantage reforces our confidence that Nexstar will deliver a strong political advertising revenue in 2024.

    為了進一步增強我們的政治機會,我們在一月初在鳳凰城簽訂了多年經紀協議KAZT-TV,鳳凰城是全國第11 大EMA,是第24 個選舉週期中最關鍵的重要市場之一。我們的地方和國家資產(包括 NewsNation、The Hill 和 The CW)之間的內容協同效應也將為這些努力做出積極貢獻。總之,獨特的競爭優勢增強了我們對 Nexstar 將在 2024 年實現強勁政治廣告收入的信心。

  • In terms of guidance, we are initiating 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.085 billion to $2.195 billion. Lee Ann will discuss the details shortly, but we've changed the form of our guidance to be more aligned with other companies in our industry and other companies of our scale. We have a track record of meeting or exceeding our guidance and believe the new EBITDA guidance will be more useful to shareholders who tend to value us on this metric. Even though the form has changed, as always, we will continue to provide you with our unvarnished take on the prospects for our business model, which we expect to continue to generate a significant amount of free cash flow for the foreseeable future.

    在指導方面,我們啟動的 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 指引為 20.85 億美元至 21.95 億美元。 Lee Ann 很快就會討論細節,但我們已經改變了指導的形式,以便與我們行業中的其他公司和我們規模的其他公司更加一致。我們有達到或超過我們指導的記錄,並相信新的 EBITDA 指導對於傾向於根據此指標評價我們的股東更有用。儘管形式發生了變化,但我們將一如既往地繼續向您提供我們對我們業務模式前景的真實看法,我們預計該模式將在可預見的未來繼續產生大量自由現金流。

  • I trust that you share my enthusiasm and looking forward to 2024 and Nexstar Media Group's bright future. Our continued growth and our success are predicated on the unique strength and durability of our high profitable operating model with the experience of our leadership team and our more than 13,000 talented and diverse employees across the country.

    我相信您和我一樣充滿熱情並期待 2024 年和 Nexstar Media Group 的光明未來。我們的持續成長和成功取決於我們高利潤營運模式的獨特優勢和持久性,以及我們的領導團隊和全國 13,000 多名才華橫溢、多元化的員工的經驗。

  • We expect to build momentum through 2024, given the successful renegotiation of our distribution contracts in 2023, significant presidential election year, political advertising, continuing to reduce the losses related to the CW network and an improving economic environment. Nexstar has a clear set of objectives for creating the greatest long-term value for our shareholders and we will continue to deploy cash in a manner that will deliver the highest returns.

    鑑於 2023 年分銷合約的成功重新談判、重要的總統選舉年、政治廣告、持續減少與 CW 網路相關的損失以及不斷改善的經濟環境,我們預計將在 2024 年之前建立勢頭。 Nexstar 擁有一套明確的目標,旨在為我們的股東創造最大的長期價值,我們將繼續以帶來最高回報的方式部署現金。

  • So with that said, let me turn the call over to Mike Biard. Mike?

    話雖如此,讓我把電話轉給麥克比亞德。麥克風?

  • Michael Biard - President & COO

    Michael Biard - President & COO

  • Thank you, Perry, and good morning, everyone. Before reviewing our operating results in more detail, I'll briefly address the sports-focused streaming product announced by FOX, ESPN and Warner Bros. Discovery. As we and many industry analysts believe there was a significant misinterpretation in market overreaction, which appears to have abated somewhat as more information and understanding of the product has become available.

    謝謝你,佩里,大家早安。在更詳細地回顧我們的營運表現之前,我將簡要介紹福克斯、ESPN 和華納兄弟探索頻道推出的以體育為重點的串流媒體產品。我們和許多產業分析師認為,市場過度反應存在重大誤解,但隨著對產品的更多資訊和了解的出現,這種過度反應似乎有所減弱。

  • First, with respect to the composition of the proposed product, we have confirmation that it will function in the same manner as other vMVPDs that distribute our FOX and ABC affiliated stations. To be clear, Nexstar will have the option of opting in to secure carriage and compensation for our ABC and FOX affiliated stations. As such, this would be an additive incremental revenue stream for Nexstar.

    首先,就擬議產品的組成而言,我們已確認其功能將與分發我們的 FOX 和 ABC 附屬電台的其他 vMVPD 相同。需要明確的是,Nexstar 將可以選擇為我們的 ABC 和 FOX 附屬電視台確保運輸和賠償。因此,這將成為 Nexstar 的額外增量收入來源。

  • The fact that the networks O&O and affiliate stations are a core piece of the product is no surprise, and it reaffirms the critical importance of the broadcast platform to sports rights and distribution. Moreover, we believe the 3 JV partners understand the value of the linear ecosystem as pay-TV revenues remain vital to each of them. They've demonstrated this in their respective approaches to D2C and largely avoiding the strategies of some of their peers that have undermined the value of their own core linear networks.

    網路 O&O 和附屬電台是該產品的核心部分這一事實並不奇怪,它重申了廣播平台對體育賽事轉播權和發行的至關重要性。此外,我們相信這 3 個合資夥伴了解線性生態系統的價值,因為付費電視收入對他們來說仍然至關重要。他們在各自的 D2C 方法中證明了這一點,並在很大程度上避免了一些同行破壞其核心線性網路價值的策略。

  • We note that Lachlan Murdoch clearly stated that the sole purpose of the sports product is to target cord nevers, those already outside of the pay-TV ecosystem in order to expand the audience for their sports programming and not shrink linear cash flows. The rumored pricing for the service supports this assertion as it would not undervalue the linear services that carry and pay for the marquee sports that are the core of the offering, like some other D2C products in the marketplace do. And since the product is focused on cord nevers, we would welcome the opportunity to make Nexstar's local programming available to a new audience.

    我們注意到,拉克蘭·默多克明確表示,該體育產品的唯一目的是針對那些已經處於付費電視生態系統之外的有線電視用戶,以擴大其體育節目的受眾群體,而不是收縮線性現金流。傳聞中的服務定價支持了這一說法,因為它不會像市場上其他一些 D2C 產品那樣低估作為該產品核心的大型體育賽事的承載和付費的線性服務。由於該產品專注於有線節目,我們很高興有機會向新觀眾提供 Nexstar 的本地節目。

  • All that said, to date, we have more questions than answers about the proposed product, including assurance that will actually launch. We know launching a new streaming startup will be challenging, including potential regulatory hurdles, lawsuits and other complicating factors surrounding the JV. So we'll have to see how this all plays out. But there is no question that the bundled linear video particularly broadcast continues to be the most effective distribution platform for sports content and the most attractive value proposition to customers for access to the most compelling sports, news and entertainment, all in one place.

    儘管如此,迄今為止,我們對擬議產品的疑問多於答案,包括實際推出的保證。我們知道,推出新的串流媒體新創公司將具有挑戰性,包括潛在的監管障礙、訴訟和圍繞合資企業的其他複雜因素。所以我們必須看看這一切會如何發展。但毫無疑問,捆綁線性視訊(尤其是廣播)仍然是體育內容最有效的分發平台,也是對客戶最具吸引力的價值主張,讓他們可以在一個地方獲得最引人注目的體育、新聞和娛樂。

  • As an aside, we believe these marketplace developments, combined with our recent ratings successes further validate our strategy for CW Sports and the investments we've made to acquire sports rights, which we can see are beginning to take root already.

    順便說一句,我們相信這些市場的發展,加上我們最近的收視率成功,進一步驗證了我們對CW Sports 的策略以及我們為獲得體育賽事轉播權而進行的投資,我們可以看到這些投資已經開始紮根。

  • Now turning to the operating review. We delivered fourth quarter net revenue of $1.3 billion compared to $1.5 billion in the prior year quarter. The net revenue comparison primarily reflects the year-over-year variance in cyclical political advertising, offset in part by growth in distribution revenue. Excluding political advertising, net revenue increased 4.3% year-over-year.

    現在轉向操作審查。我們第四季的淨收入為 13 億美元,而去年同期為 15 億美元。淨收入比較主要反映了周期性政治廣告的同比差異,但部分被發行收入的成長所抵消。不包括政治廣告,淨收入年增 4.3%。

  • Core television advertising, which includes both our station group and our national networks, but excludes any digital advertising revenue declined 5.9% year-over-year to approximately $449 million. Excluding the CW, for consistent comparison purposes, core advertising declined 5.6%, marking a sequential improvement from the 2023 third quarter, which was down 6.8%.

    核心電視廣告(包括我們的電視台集團和全國網絡,但不包括任何數位廣告收入)年減 5.9%,至約 4.49 億美元。出於一致的比較目的,不包括 CW,核心廣告下降了 5.6%,較 2023 年第三季下降 6.8% 有所改善。

  • We continue to be impacted by a challenging national advertising market and our relatively high concentration of large market stations continue to perform more like the national advertising market. To that point, excluding our networks and top 10 markets and including digital ad revenue, as many of our peers do, our station core television advertising revenue for the quarter was slightly up.

    我們繼續受到充滿挑戰的全國廣告市場的影響,而我們相對高度集中的大型市場站的表現繼續更像全國廣告市場。到目前為止,與許多同行一樣,排除我們的網路和十大市場並包括數位廣告收入,我們電視臺本季的核心電視廣告收入略有上升。

  • On a consolidated basis, in Q1 2024, we are seeing a slightly greater rate of decline of our overall core television advertising over what we saw in the fourth quarter, again, primarily as a result of weak national advertising and due to the Super Bowl airing on CBS versus FOX, which is not as favorable for us. Including the CW for consistency of comparison purposes, our top-performing categories in the quarter for home repair, manufacturing, packaged goods and air conditioning heating.

    綜合來看,2024 年第一季度,我們的整體核心電視廣告下降率略高於第四季度,這主要是由於全國廣告疲軟以及超級碗的播出哥倫比亞廣播公司(CBS) 與福克斯電視台(FOX)的比賽,這對我們來說不太有利。出於比較一致性的目的,包括 CW,我們本季表現最好的類別是家庭維修、製造、包裝商品和空調暖氣。

  • Automotive, our largest advertising category in terms of dollars spent was essentially flat, given a challenging year-over-year comparison. The category is most responsible for the core advertising revenue decline for gaming, sports betting, insurance and radio, TV, cable and newspaper.

    鑑於同比比較具有挑戰性,汽車是我們支出金額最大的廣告類別,但基本上持平。該類別是遊戲、體育博彩、保險以及廣播、電視、有線電視和報紙核心廣告收入下降的主要原因。

  • Turning to political. Q4 political advertising of $30 million was ahead of Q4 2021 political of $19 million and just behind Q4 2019 political of $36 million. With the primary election cycle, slightly less active versus 2019, as Perry mentioned, we remain optimistic, nonetheless, about our growth prospects for political advertising revenue in the 2024 election cycle, which we expect to exceed each of 2022 and 2020. Given our extensive footprint, covering over 80% of contested elections, we are extraordinarily well positioned to take share and dollars locally and nationally.

    轉向政治。第四季的政治廣告支出為 3,000 萬美元,領先 2021 年第四季的政治廣告支出 1,900 萬美元,僅落後於 2019 年第四季的政治廣告支出 3,600 萬美元。正如 Perry 所提到的,由於初選週期與 2019 年相比稍微不那麼活躍,儘管如此,我們對 2024 年選舉週期的政治廣告收入增長前景仍然樂觀,我們預計該收入將超過 2022 年和 2020 年。我們的足跡涵蓋了超過80% 的有爭議的選舉,我們處於非常有利的地位,可以在當地和全國範圍內獲取份額和資金。

  • Moving on to distribution. Nexstar delivered fourth quarter distribution revenue of approximately $704 million, up 14.3% versus the prior year. Distribution revenue growth was driven by the renewal of our distribution agreements in 2022 and 2023 on approved terms and annual rate escalators as well as growth in virtual MVPD revenue offset in part by continued traditional MVPD subscriber attrition and a removal of partner stations from certain MVPDs.

    繼續進行分發。 Nexstar 第四季發行營收約為 7.04 億美元,比去年同期成長 14.3%。分銷收入成長的推動因素是我們在2022 年和2023 年根據批准的條款和年費率階梯更新了分銷協議,以及虛擬MVPD 收入的增長,部分被傳統MVPD 用戶的持續流失和某些MVPD 中合作夥伴電台的刪除所抵消。

  • Subscribers grew in the quarter in the low single-digit range excluding the impact of the ongoing removal of partner stations from certain MVPDs, reflecting the benefit of the increased carriage of our CW, MyNetwork and independent stations on YouTube TV and other MVPDs and the addition of new CW affiliations at Nexstar stations and recent station acquisitions.

    排除某些MVPD 中持續刪除合作夥伴電台的影響,本季度訂戶數量以較低個位數增長,這反映出我們的CW、MyNetwork 和獨立電台在YouTube TV 和其他MVPD 上的承載量增加以及新增內容帶來的好處Nexstar 電台的新 CW 隸屬關係以及最近的電台收購。

  • Looking forward, we have no significant distribution renewals and only one major affiliation agreement up during the year that will impact 2024. With our partner stations back on DISH and an easier comparison later in the year as we lap the DirecTV service disruption in the third quarter. We expect continued growth of our distribution revenues, tempered by subscriber attrition in line with the overall pay-TV marketplace. Specifically, we expect the full year growth rate for our distribution revenue to be in the high single-digit range and the full year growth rate for our net distribution revenue to be in the low teens.

    展望未來,我們在這一年中沒有重大的發行續約,只有一項將影響2024 年的主要附屬協議。隨著我們的合作夥伴電視台重新使用DISH,今年晚些時候我們將在第三季度經歷DirecTV 服務中斷,因此更容易進行比較。我們預期我們的發行收入將持續成長,但訂閱用戶的流失將與整體付費電視市場的情況一致。具體來說,我們預計我們的分銷收入的全年成長率將在高個位數範圍內,而我們的淨分銷收入的全年成長率將在低雙位數範圍內。

  • Fourth quarter digital revenue increased 5.4% year-over-year to approximately $106 million. Digital revenue was impacted primarily by weakness in national digital advertising, partially offset by year-over-year increases in Nexstar's local digital advertising revenue and Agency Services business. As Perry mentioned, the strides we are making at the CW are noteworthy and underscore our optimism for the value that can be created from this asset.

    第四季數位營收年增 5.4%,達到約 1.06 億美元。數位收入主要受到全國數位廣告疲軟的影響,但 Nexstar 本地數位廣告收入和代理服務業務的同比增長部分抵消了這一影響。正如佩里所提到的,我們在 CW 取得的進步值得注意,並強調了我們對這項資產可以創造的價值的樂觀態度。

  • Q4 revenue of $55 million declined from last year's $66 million given weakness in the overall advertising market and the impact of the rider strike. However, adjusted EBITDA improved by $14 million compared to the prior year to an adjusted EBITDA loss of $50 million. As Perry mentioned, in 2023, we reduced the CW losses by nearly $90 million over the year and remain on track to continue to bend the cost and revenue curves favorably in 2024 toward breakeven in the next couple of years.

    由於整體廣告市場疲軟以及騎士罷工的影響,第四季的收入為 5,500 萬美元,較去年的 6,600 萬美元有所下降。然而,調整後的 EBITDA 比前一年增加了 1,400 萬美元,調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 5,000 萬美元。正如 Perry 所提到的,到 2023 年,我們將 CW 損失減少了近 9,000 萬美元,並有望在 2024 年繼續有利地彎曲成本和收入曲線,在未來幾年實現盈虧平衡。

  • The CW remains one of the most exciting long-term growth opportunities at the company, and we expect our programming and sales strategies to drive viewership and increase the overall value proposition to our affiliates, distributors and advertisers. For example, the simulcast of the NewsNation presidential debate on the CW was a success for both brands, and we expect to leverage additional organic synergies across our station and network portfolio going forward.

    CW 仍然是該公司最令人興奮的長期成長機會之一,我們希望我們的節目和銷售策略能夠提高收視率,並提高我們的附屬公司、經銷商和廣告商的整體價值主張。例如,聯播 CW 的 NewsNation 總統辯論對兩個品牌來說都取得了成功,我們預計未來將在我們的電視台和網路組合中發揮更多的有機協同作用。

  • As we mentioned on the last call, our CW affiliated stations are the most profitable of our network relationships, both in terms of margin and gross dollars. We are laser focused on fortifying that performance for the long term by acquiring more CW affiliations for Nexstar stations and focusing our programming investments in content that matters to the broadcast viewer, including live sports.

    正如我們在上次電話會議中提到的,無論是從利潤還是總美元來看,我們的 CW 附屬電視台都是我們網路關係中利潤最高的。我們致力於透過為 Nexstar 電視台收購更多 CW 附屬機構,並將我們的節目投資重點放在對廣播觀眾重要的內容(包括體育直播)上,以長期強化這一業績。

  • With that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Lee Ann for the remainder of the financial review and update. Lee Ann?

    至此,我很高興將電話轉給 Lee Ann,以完成剩餘的財務審查和更新。李安?

  • Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

    Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Mike gave you most of the details on the revenue side and on the CW. So I'll provide a review of the expenses, adjusted EBITDA, attributable free cash flow along with a review of our capital allocation activities in our 2024 guidance. Together, fourth quarter direct operating and SG&A expenses, excluding depreciation and amortization and corporate expenses increased by $4 million.

    謝謝你,麥克,大家早安。 Mike 向您提供了有關收入方面和 CW 的大部分詳細資訊。因此,我將在 2024 年指導中審查費用、調整後 EBITDA、可歸屬自由現金流以及我們的資本配置活動。第四季直接營運和 SG&A 費用(不包括折舊和攤提以及公司費用)總計增加了 400 萬美元。

  • There were a couple of onetime items in Q4 2022, which impacted the comparison. Excluding those items, direct operating and SG&A expenses before corporate increased by $16 million, primarily due to increases in affiliation fees and other programming expenses, the expansion of new programming and expenses related to our in-house national sales force launch, offset by reduced commissions from the reduction of political revenue in a nonelection year.

    2022 年第四季有幾個一次性項目影響了比較。不包括這些項目,公司之前的直接營運和SG&A 費用增加了1600 萬美元,主要是由於附屬費用和其他計劃費用的增加、新計劃的擴展以及與我們內部全國銷售隊伍啟動相關的費用,但被佣金減少所抵銷非選舉年政治收入的減少。

  • Also included in our calculation of adjusted EBITDA but not included in direct operating and SG&A expenses above are the payments for broadcast rights of our stations and networks, excluding the CW, which declined by $10 million in Q4 due primarily to reduced reliance on syndicated content.

    我們調整後的EBITDA 運算中還包括我們的電台和網路的廣播權付款(不包括CW),但不包括在上述直接營運和SG&A 費用中,該費用在第四季度下降了1000 萬美元,主要是由於對聯合內容的依賴減少。

  • In addition, there was $20 million of savings or a 22% reduction in amortization of broadcast rights as the CW as were able to reduce programming costs at the start of the 2023-2024 broadcast season as part of our cost reduction strategy.

    此外,作為我們成本削減策略的一部分,CW 能夠在 2023-2024 廣播季開始時降低節目成本,從而節省了 2000 萬美元,即廣播權攤銷減少了 22%。

  • In Q4 2023 total corporate expense was approximately $45 million, including noncash compensation expense of $16 million compared to $49 million, including noncash compensation expense of $18 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Q4 2023 depreciation and amortization was $210 million versus $231 million in the prior year quarter, due primarily to the reduction in programming expenses at the CW I mentioned a moment ago. Please note that the CW programming costs, which are included in our definitions of adjusted EBITDA and attributable free cash flow, are accounted for in this line item as amortization of broadcast rights. For more information on this amount, please refer to the schedules in our earnings release.

    2023 年第四季,公司總支出約為4,500 萬美元,包括1,600 萬美元的非現金薪酬支出,而2022 年第四季的非現金薪酬支出為4,900 萬美元,其中包括1,800 萬美元的非現金薪酬支出。2023 年第四季的折舊和攤銷為2.1 億美元,而2022 年第四季的折舊和攤銷為2.31 億美元。去年同期,這主要是由於我剛才提到的 CW 節目費用減少。請注意,CW 節目成本(包含在我們調整後 EBITDA 和可歸屬自由現金流的定義中)在此行項目中計入廣播權攤銷。有關此金額的更多信息,請參閱我們的收益發布中的時間表。

  • We've received $12 million in Q4 distributions from equity investments related primarily to our 31% ownership in TV Food Network, which represents a 20% decrease from prior year quarter. Our Q4 distribution for TV Food Network is a tax-related distribution. The reduced amount reflects lower income at the TV Food Network related primarily to lower advertising revenue. So putting it all together, on a consolidated basis, fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $411 million, representing a 31.5% margin. Excluding the CW losses, fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $461 million, representing approximately a 36.6% margin.

    我們在第四季度從股權投資中獲得了 1,200 萬美元的分配,主要與我們在 TV Food Network 的 31% 所有權相關,比去年同期減少了 20%。我們的 TV Food Network 第四季發行是與稅收相關的發行。減少的金額反映了電視食品網絡收入的減少,這主要與廣告收入的減少有關。因此,綜合來看,第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 4.11 億美元,利潤率為 31.5%。不包括 CW 虧損,第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 4.61 億美元,利潤率約 36.6%。

  • Fourth quarter CapEx was $36 million, a reduction of $10 million from our expectations primarily due to timing of payments, which moved to 2024. Fourth quarter CapEx of $36 million compared to $57 million of CapEx in the fourth quarter last year. For the year, CapEx was $149 million versus $156 million last year, excluding a small amount of CapEx associated with repack. Fourth quarter net interest expense increased $115 million from $103 million in the prior year quarter due to the impact of higher silver rates applicable to our floating rate debt. Cash interest expense was $113 million for the quarter, slightly lower than our expectations given lower silver rate. Fourth quarter operating cash taxes were $26 million. And putting this all together, consolidated fourth quarter attributable free cash flow was $265 million.

    第四季資本支出為3600 萬美元,比我們的預期減少了1000 萬美元,主要是由於付款時間推遲到了2024 年。第四季資本支出為3600 萬美元,而去年第四季的資本支出為5700萬美元。今年的資本支出為 1.49 億美元,去年為 1.56 億美元,不包括與重新包裝相關的少量資本支出。由於適用於我們浮動利率債務的白銀利率上升的影響,第四季度淨利息支出從去年同期的 1.03 億美元增加了 1.15 億美元。本季現金利息支出為 1.13 億美元,略低於我們鑑於白銀利率較低的預期。第四季營業現金稅為 2,600 萬美元。將所有這些加在一起,第四季綜合歸屬自由現金流為 2.65 億美元。

  • Together with the free cash flow generated in the quarter in cash on hand, we returned $137 million to shareholders comprised of $46 million in dividends and the repurchase of $91 million of stock at an average purchase price of $145.13. This is a smaller amount of repurchases versus the prior quarter as we used the cash available to accelerate repurchases in the prior quarter, given the dislocation in the stock price list. For the full year, we repurchased $605 million of stock at an average price of $160.4 taking advantage of the low prices we saw during the last 2 quarters of the year and reducing shares outstanding for the year by 8.7%. This compares to 9.7% reduction in shares outstanding that we were able to accomplish last year.

    加上本季產生的手頭現金自由現金流,我們向股東返還了 1.37 億美元,其中包括 4,600 萬美元的股息以及以平均購買價格 145.13 美元回購 9,100 萬美元的股票。與上一季相比,回購數量較少,因為考慮到股價表的錯位,我們使用可用現金來加速上一季的回購。全年,我們利用今年最後兩季的低價,以平均價格 160.4 美元回購了 6.05 億美元的股票,並將全年流通股數量減少了 8.7%。相比之下,我們去年的流通股減少了 9.7%。

  • Including dividends, for the full year, we returned $796 million or 94% of attributable free cash flow in 2023 compared to 68% of attributable free cash flow in 2022. As Perry mentioned, for the 2022-2023 cycle, we returned $910 million of capital to shareholders on average per year, representing a dollar average of 77% of our attributable free cash flow and an actual 16% cash return on our average market capitalization over the period.

    包括股息在內,我們在2023 年全年返還了7.96 億美元,即歸屬自由現金流的94%,而2022 年為歸屬自由現金流的68%。正如佩里提到的,在2022-2023 年週期,我們返還了9.1 億美元平均每年向股東提供的資本,相當於我們歸屬自由現金流的 77%,以及我們在此期間平均市值的 16% 的實際現金回報率。

  • In 2023, we also repaid $125 million of debt and acquired 2 stations for $38 million. Nexstar's outstanding debt as of December 31, 2023 was $6.8 billion, down slightly for the quarter as we made quarterly amortization payments of $32 million. Our cash balance at quarter end was $135 million, including $52 million of cash related to the CW. Because we have designated the CW with an unrestricted subsidiary, the losses associated with the CW are not accounted for in our calculation of leverage for purposes of our credit agreement.

    2023年,我們也償還了1.25億美元的債務,並以3,800萬美元收購了2個電視台。截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日,Nexstar 的未償債務為 68 億美元,本季略有下降,因為我們支付了 3,200 萬美元的季度攤銷費用。季度末我們的現金餘額為 1.35 億美元,其中包括與 CW 相關的 5,200 萬美元現金。由於我們已將 CW 指定為不受限制的子公司,因此與 CW 相關的損失不會計入我們出於信貸協議目的的槓桿計算中。

  • As such, our net first lien covenant ratio for Nexstar, excluding CW, as of December 31, 2023, was 2.25x, which is well below our first lien and only covenant of 4.25x. Our total net leverage for Nexstar, excluding the CW, was 3.76x at quarter end. As the typical announced the last few years, we expect leverage, which we calculate on an LTM basis versus the 2-year average, but not our quantum of debt to tick up in 2023, but to fall again in 2024 as EBITDA will grow with the return of political advertising.

    因此,截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日,我們對 Nexstar(不包括 CW)的淨第一留置權契約比率為 2.25 倍,遠低於我們的第一留置權和唯一契約的 4.25 倍。截至季末,我們對 Nexstar 的總淨槓桿率(不包括 CW)為 3.76 倍。正如過去幾年典型所宣布的那樣,我們預計槓桿率(我們根據LTM 與兩年平均水平進行計算),但我們的債務量不會在2023 年增加,而是會在2024 年再次下降,因為EBITDA將隨著EBITDA 的成長而成長。政治廣告的回歸。

  • Our plan this year, which is a political year, is to repay a portion of our debt -- a portion of that incrementals were mandatory payments while we continue to use cash for dividend and repurchases. In January 2024, we announced our 13th consecutive increase in our dividend, increasing the 2024 quarterly dividend rate by 25%, which based on our stock price as of yesterday, is now more than a 4% dividend yield achieving our goal of a greater than a 3% yield. Even at this yield, the dividend represents less than a 20% claim on our free cash flow this year.

    今年是政治年,我們的計劃是償還部分債務——其中一部分增量是強制性付款,同時我們繼續使用現金支付股息和回購。 2024年1月,我們宣布連續第13次增加股息,將2024年季度股息率提高25%,根據我們昨天的股價,目前股息率超過4%,實現了我們高於預期的目標。3% 的收益率。即使以這個收益率,股息也只占我們今年自由現金流的不到 20%。

  • As we move forward, we will continually -- we'll continue to strategically deploy our cash in a manner that is consistent with our commitment to creating the highest shareholder value.

    隨著我們的前進,我們將繼續以符合我們創造最高股東價值的承諾的方式策略性地部署我們的現金。

  • Now turning to guidance. This year, we are initiating 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance in a range of $2.085 billion to $2.195 billion. We note that 2024 Street estimates averaged $2.18 billion on average for 2024. Mike and Perry already provided some of the key assumptions that are embedded in our guidance, which include: one, that we expect Nexstar's share of total broadcast television political advertising to be in line with historical levels or a low teens percentage. And please note that the industry closed these figures on a growth basis, but we book revenue on a net basis after agency commission. Two, our expectation for growth in net distribution revenue growth to be in the high single digits and low teens areas, respectively; and three, we continue to expect to get the CW to break even in the next couple of years.

    現在轉向指導。今年,我們啟動了 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 指導,範圍為 20.85 億美元至 21.95 億美元。我們注意到,華爾街預計2024 年的平均廣告收入為21.8 億美元。Mike 和Perry 已經提供了我們指導中的一些關鍵假設,其中包括:第一,我們預計Nexstar 在廣播電視政治廣告總額中所佔的份額為符合歷史水準或較低的青少年百分比。請注意,該行業以成長為基礎計算出這些數字,但我們在代理佣金後以淨額為基礎記入收入。第二,我們預期淨分銷收入成長將分別達到高個位數和低雙位數;第三,我們繼續期望 CW 在未來幾年內達到收支平衡。

  • The guidance also considers our current expectations for the year for the amount of political fundraising spend allocated to television advertising in our markets, the rate of attrition of pay television subscribers, the health of the local and national advertising market, the ability to renegotiate affiliation agreements on favorable terms and the level of distributions related to our 31.3% ownership stake in TV Food Network, among other things. We do not intend to update this guidance on a quarterly basis going forward.

    該指南還考慮了我們目前對今年分配給市場電視廣告的政治籌款支出金額的預期、付費電視訂戶的流失率、地方和國家廣告市場的健康狀況、重新談判附屬協議的能力與我們在TV Food Network 的31.3% 股權相關的優惠條款和分配水準等。我們不打算在未來每季更新此指導意見。

  • We changed the form of our guidance this year for a number of reasons. First, no other company in our industry provides a 2-year outlook for their financial performance. In fact, most limit their outlook to the next quarter or fiscal year with many providing no guidance at all. Second, when we establish the 2-year average free cash flow guidance literally a decade ago in February 2014, we were trying to better educate the market on the strength of our free cash flow generation by smoothing out the impact of the 2-year political cycle. We were also doing a lot of debt and the anticipation of M&A over that time frame.

    由於多種原因,我們今年改變了指導的形式。首先,我們產業中沒有其他公司提供兩年的財務表現展望。事實上,大多數人將他們的前景限制在下一季或下一財年,許多人根本沒有提供任何指導。其次,當我們在十年前的 2014 年 2 月制定兩年平均自由現金流指引時,我們試圖透過消除兩年政治經濟的影響,更好地讓市場了解我們自由現金流產生的實力。循環。在此期間,我們也承擔了大量債務和併購預期。

  • That was difficult to pro forma, and this guidance was helpful to investors in understanding the financial impact on current and future periods and how quickly we'd be able to deleverage. Today, the market understands the political cycle, and we have not done a material M&A transaction since Tribune, which closed in September 2019. We have a healthy balance sheet, relatively low leverage and 3 full years of clean historical data for investors to look at.

    這在形式上是困難的,而這項指導有助於投資者了解對當前和未來時期的財務影響以及我們去槓桿化的速度。如今,市場了解政治週期,自2019 年9 月關閉Tribune 以來,我們還沒有進行過重大併購交易。我們擁有健康的資產負債表、相對較低的槓桿率和3 年乾淨的歷史數據供投資者查看。

  • Third, while most large and mid-cap media companies do not provide guidance at all, we felt it was important to continue to offer some level of guidance. We've done extensive research on best practices within and outside our sector and believe that annual adjusted EBITDA guidance is the metric most investors use for us, better aligns us with other companies of our scale and track record and is more reliable measure of our operating performance and strength in the current interest rate environment.

    第三,雖然大多數大中型媒體公司根本不提供指導,但我們認為繼續提供一定程度的指導很重要。我們對行業內外的最佳實踐進行了廣泛的研究,並相信年度調整後的EBITDA 指導是大多數投資者為我們使用的指標,可以更好地使我們與具有我們規模和業績記錄的其他公司保持一致,並且是衡量我們營運的更可靠的指標當前利率環境下的表現和實力。

  • This change in form of guidance is by no way a change in what we believe to be the future prospects of Nexstar. We understand that some naysayers may take the opportunity to "read into this guidance change that we somehow don't believe in the future of Nexstar." Don't let them do it. We continue to have confidence in our business model growth opportunities and expectations for significant free cash flow generation for the foreseeable future as evidenced by our capital allocation strategy, which prioritizes delivering strong and joint shareholders time. We pride ourselves on our transparency, and we'll continue to provide our fair and honest assessment of our businesses and growth prospects.

    這種指導形式的改變絕不是我們所認為的 Nexstar 未來前景的改變。我們知道,一些反對者可能會藉此機會“解讀這一指導性變更,認為我們在某種程度上不相信 Nexstar 的未來。”別讓他們這麼做。我們仍然對我們的業務模式成長機會和在可預見的未來產生大量自由現金流的預期充滿信心,我們的資本配置策略就證明了這一點,該策略優先考慮為股東提供強大的聯合時間。我們為我們的透明度感到自豪,我們將繼續對我們的業務和成長前景提供公平和誠實的評估。

  • And for those of you projecting free cash flow, which we hope is all of you, we will continue to provide color on how we model our free cash flow. So with respect to free cash flow, we're currently projecting CapEx of $135 million to $145 million for the full year. We project Nexstar's cash interest expense using the spread on our floating rate debt instruments and the current SOFR forward curve and the coupons on our fixed rate debt, along with expectations for debt repayments, which includes our mandatory amortization of approximately $125 million, plus a modest amount of additional optional repayment giving excess cash flow in a political year.

    對於那些預測自由現金流的人(我們希望你們所有人都是如此),我們將繼續提供有關如何建模自由現金流的資訊。因此,就自由現金流而言,我們目前預計全年資本支出為 1.35 億美元至 1.45 億美元。我們使用浮動利率債務工具的利差、當前的SOFR 遠期曲線和固定利率債務的息票,以及債務償還預期來預測Nexstar 的現金利息支出,其中包括約1.25 億美元的強制攤銷,加上適度的攤銷。在政治年度中提供額外現金流的額外可選還款金額。

  • For cash taxes, we use a 26.5% tax rate when calculating our estimated tax after onetime and other adjustments. As a reminder, the first quarter only includes a very small amount of state income tax payments. And for those of you wondering, we did receive $40 million from the BMI sale in February.

    對於現金稅,我們在計算一次性和其他調整後的預估稅時使用 26.5% 的稅率。提醒一下,第一季僅包括極少量的州所得稅。對於那些想知道的人來說,我們確實從 2 月的 BMI 銷售中獲得了 4000 萬美元。

  • Finally, a few comments on our ESG initiatives. While we are executing well on our business ESG also remains the priority for Nexstar, and we continue to take action to evolve our practices and disclosures to improve our profile. This year, our Board of Directors adopted a new policy separating the role of Chairperson and CEO Perry's departure from the company and the Board. And in preparation for Nexstar's 2024 proxy and Annual Meeting, we'll be launching our annual shareholder outreach initiative shortly, where we discuss our initiatives and hear feedback from our top shareholders. And as in the past, we will provide the results of this process in our annual proxy statement.

    最後,對我們的 ESG 舉措進行一些評論。雖然我們的業務執行良好,但 ESG 仍然是 Nexstar 的首要任務,我們將繼續採取行動改進我們的做法和揭露,以改善我們的形象。今年,我們的董事會通過了一項新政策,將董事長兼執行長佩里的角色從公司和董事會中分離出來。為了準備 Nexstar 的 2024 年股東代表大會和年會,我們將很快啟動年度股東外展計劃,我們將在會上討論我們的計劃並聽取頂級股東的反饋。與過去一樣,我們將在年度股東委託聲明中提供此過程的結果。

  • And with that, I'll open the call for questions. Operator, can you go to our first question?

    接下來,我將開始提問。接線員,您能回答我們的第一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from the line of Benjamin Soff with Deutsche Bank.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自德意志銀行的班傑明·索夫(Benjamin Soff)。

  • Benjamin Soff - Research Analyst

    Benjamin Soff - Research Analyst

  • Appreciate all the color. I was wondering on the distribution side, if you could parse out the organic growth rate after stripping out DirecTV and the addition back of the partner stations? And then I was just wondering if you could drill a little bit more into how you're thinking about capital allocation and how you plan to utilize the excess cash from this political cycle?

    欣賞所有的顏色。我想知道在發行方面,您是否可以解析剔除 DirecTV 並增加合作夥伴電台後的有機成長率?然後我只是想知道您是否可以更深入地了解您如何考慮資本配置以及您計劃如何利用這個政治週期中的多餘現金?

  • Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

    Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So on the first question about the pro forma, we did provide some decent amount of color on our third quarter call that will allow you to kind of back into that. But I'll just tell you the high single-digit growth rate drop down to mid-single digits when you pro forma out that impact on a year-over-year basis. With respect to our capital allocation, our strategy is going to continue to be opportunistic with respect to share repurchases to the extent that we can we have the cash to accomplish that, and there's no other better uses of that cash.

    是的。因此,關於關於準備考試的第一個問題,我們確實在第三季度的電話會議上提供了一些相當多的信息,這將使您能夠回到這一點。但我只想告訴你,當你預期年比影響時,高個位數成長率會降至中個位數。就我們的資本配置而言,我們的策略將繼續在股票回購方面採取機會主義態度,只要我們有足夠的現金來實現這一目標,並且沒有其他更好的用途來使用這些現金。

  • Obviously, we saw we increased our dividend by 25% this year. We do have mandatory amortization of about $125 million in terms of debt repayment, we'll probably repay a little bit more debt this year and just because it's a political year, we have a little bit more excess cash flow. And then we'll use the remainder of that cash if we don't have M&A to do to buy back stock. We continue to be very undervalued.

    顯然,我們今年將股息增加了 25%。在債務償還方面,我們確實有約1.25億美元的強制攤銷,今年我們可能會償還更多一點的債務,而且因為這是政治年,我們有更多的超額現金流。如果我們不需要進行併購來回購股票,我們將使用剩餘的現金。我們的價值仍然被嚴重低估。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Jason Bazinet with Citibank.

    下一個問題來自 Jason Bazinet 與花旗銀行的對話。

  • Jason Boisvert Bazinet - Research Analyst

    Jason Boisvert Bazinet - Research Analyst

  • I just had a question on the CW. You guys are making good progress, narrowing the losses. And I think you've said the goal is to get to breakeven by the fourth quarter of '25. Is there anything you'd call out that's meaningful that we should be aware of in terms of quarters where we might see the losses widen even though your long-term objectives are still on track? And I'm thinking specifically of some of these sports rights sort of -- those costs sort of come into the P&L?

    我剛剛有一個關於 CW 的問題。你們正在取得良好進展,正在縮小損失。我想你已經說過目標是到 25 年第四季達到收支平衡。您認為有哪些有意義的事情是我們應該注意的,即使您的長期目標仍在軌道上,我們也可能會看到虧損擴大?我正在特別考慮其中一些體育權利——這些成本是否會計入損益表?

  • Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I think we're still on track. And as Michael said, in the next couple of years and whether that's exactly Q4 of '25 or with the writer strike that kind of moves into the first part of 2026, I think, is irrelevant. We are adding value, creating value there with the growth in audience, the beating our competitors head-to-head upon occasion. I mean, those are all things that we hope to do. And again, adding sports on the weekends meaningfully impact our CW stations that reach about 40% of the country because that's a daypart that they weren't competing for sports cost per points or with live programming. So it's all good. We don't really factor that into our analysis, how we're doing at the local stations, but there's been meaningful upside there in terms of local sales of the national sports product that we put on the CW.

    是的。我認為我們仍在正軌上。正如麥可所說,在接下來的幾年裡,無論是 25 年第四季還是作家罷工,我認為,進入 2026 年上半年都是無關緊要的。我們正在增加價值,隨著觀眾的成長創造價值,有時會正面擊敗我們的競爭對手。我的意思是,這些都是我們希望做的事情。再說一遍,在周末增加體育節目對我們覆蓋全國約 40% 地區的 CW 電視台產生了有意義的影響,因為週末他們不會爭奪每點的體育費用或現場節目。所以一切都很好。我們並沒有真正將這一點納入我們的分析中,我們在當地電視台的表現如何,但就我們在 CW 上投放的國家體育產品的當地銷售而言,存在有意義的上升空間。

  • As it relates to the peaks and valleys, I mean, obviously, Nexstar or the NASCAR will come in, in 2025, which will increase our payments for programming, but you'll also see in '25 a continued offset of our decrease in commitments to entertainment programming. So we think that you'll see program expense relative -- in total, be relatively static. And I don't know, Mike, if you have anything else you'd like to add to that?

    由於它涉及高峰和低谷,我的意思是,顯然,Nexstar 或 NASCAR 將在 2025 年加入,這將增加我們的節目支付,但你也會在 25 年看到我們承諾減少的持續抵消娛樂節目。因此,我們認為您會看到項目費用相對而言——總的來說,是相對靜態的。我不知道,麥克,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Michael Biard - President & COO

    Michael Biard - President & COO

  • No, I think that's right. I think we'll manage the cost on the existing business as we take on incremental cost with new rights that emerge.

    不,我認為這是對的。我認為我們將管理現有業務的成本,因為我們將透過新權利的出現來承擔增量成本。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Dan Kurnos with Benchmark.

    下一個問題來自 Dan Kurnos 與 Benchmark 的對話。

  • Daniel Louis Kurnos - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Daniel Louis Kurnos - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Two from me. First, Perry, obviously, a lot of noise as you mentioned in your prepared remarks in the space. But on the retran side, sort of a rehash of the fears around getting towards peak. I appreciate the pro forma, it seems like you -- the guide for this year is kind of better than what others have been saying. And I know that there's some incremental carriage from CW embedded in there, but if you could give your sort of updated thoughts on how gross and net proceed from here and parsing that out maybe big 4 and the impact of virtual, just overall, how you think about that line, and it would be helpful to start within the follow-up on national after.

    我的兩個。首先,佩里,顯然,正如您在準備好的演講中提到的那樣,有很多噪音。但在重傳方面,有點像是達到頂峰的恐懼的重演。我很欣賞你的準備考試,今年的指南比其他人所說的要好一些。我知道其中嵌入了 CW 的一些增量內容,但是如果您能就總體和淨值如何從這裡進行並解析出可能是四大以及虛擬的影響提供您的最新想法,那麼總體而言,您如何考慮一下這條線,這將有助於在國家之後的後續行動中開始。

  • Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • I think Mike was pretty clear in his commentary as in terms of kind of both the growth and net retrans guide here. There are puts and takes. We'll lap ourselves on DirecTV. The partner stations are back on DISH. We budget for attrition pretty aggressively. And so that's embedded in our guide. And so I think to parse it much more than that. It might be interesting, but I'm not sure really meaningful because we're one company and all of these factors work together to get to the number that's embedded in what we talked about. If you have specific questions, we can, I guess, decide whether we want to answer them or not. But I think that what both Mike and I had said already are pretty descriptive as to how we think about it. But is there anything in particular that's on your mind?

    我認為麥克在他的評論中非常清楚地說明了這裡的成長和淨重交易指南。有投入和拿取。我們將在 DirecTV 上大放異彩。合作夥伴電台已返回 DISH。我們非常積極地制定消耗預算。因此,這已包含在我們的指南中。所以我認為解析它遠不止於此。這可能很有趣,但我不確定是否真的有意義,因為我們是一家公司,所有這些因素共同作用才能得出我們所討論的數字。如果您有具體問題,我想我們可以決定是否要回答它們。但我認為麥克和我所說的已經很好地描述了我們的想法。但您有什麼特別的想法嗎?

  • Daniel Louis Kurnos - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Daniel Louis Kurnos - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • I guess, Perry, is really just more on sort of the broader outlook here if we're -- given the issues that have been raised around getting towards peak and the ability to raise rates faster than sub attrition and your guide doesn't imply that in the near term, but just broader or longer-term thoughts would be helpful for you?

    我想,佩里,實際上更多的是更廣泛的前景,如果我們——考慮到圍繞達到峰值而提出的問題以及比子流失更快地提高利率的能力,而你的指南並不意味著短期內,但更廣泛或更長期的想法會對您有幫助嗎?

  • Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, I just want to run one company here, and I know what our results are like, and we were very pleased with where we ended up with our negotiations and our rate increases continue to outpace the pace of cord cutting to deliver the net and gross increases that we have talked about on the call. And so all I can tell you is we're able to achieve that. Whether others can or not is, quite frankly, not my concern. We hope everybody does well and the ecosystem continues to prosper. We think that the whole Disney charter discussion that validated the value of local broadcast stations because they were never at issue.

    是的,我只想在這裡經營一家公司,我知道我們的結果是什麼樣的,我們對談判的結果感到非常滿意,我們的費率增長繼續超過剪線的速度,以提供網絡和服務我們在電話會議上談到了毛增長。所以我只能告訴你我們能夠實現這個目標。坦白說,其他人能不能,這不是我關心的。我們希望每個人都做得很好,生態系統繼續繁榮。我們認為整個迪士尼憲章的討論驗證了當地廣播電台的價值,因為它們從來沒有受到爭議。

  • And as you know, most franchise agreements for traditional MVPDs require the local stations to be carried and if we elect retrans require that they be paid to remain carried. And then everybody else that once a competitive program offering is going to have to provide the same services. So we actually think that validated the -- our place in the ecosystem, which is at the top of the food chain and then also the discussion about the new sports JV, if that truly does bring more people into the pay-TV universe in some way, shape or form, and we have the ability to opt in and be paid to be a part of that offering, that's good, too. On the margin, that's incremental subscriber growth, and we're all for it.

    如您所知,大多數傳統 MVPD 的特許經營協議都要求本地電台繼續運行,如果我們選擇轉播,則要求他們付費才能繼續運行。然後其他人一旦提供競爭性計劃就必須提供相同的服務。因此,我們實際上認為,這驗證了我們在生態系統中的地位,即位於食物鏈頂端的地位,然後還有關於新體育合資企業的討論,如果這確實能讓更多人進入付費電視領域方式、形狀或形式,我們有能力選擇加入並獲得報酬成為該產品的一部分,這也很好。從邊際上看,這就是用戶的增量成長,我們都支持它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Steven Cahall with Wells Fargo.

    下一個問題來自史蒂文·卡霍爾與富國銀行的對話。

  • Steven Lee Cahall - Senior Analyst

    Steven Lee Cahall - Senior Analyst

  • So maybe just first, the distribution revenue outlook and net outlook was very, very helpful. I'm trying to do the math quickly here, but I think it implies that reverse is only going to be up about mid-single digit, and I think you have an unfavorable comp there from the blackout plus the FOX renewal and another big 4 this year. So it looks like maybe you're starting to see some deceleration in the rate of kind of organic growth and reverse compensation expense when your peers have talked about that as well. So I would love if there's any commentary on maybe longer-term reverse easing?

    因此,也許首先,發行收入前景和淨前景非常非常有幫助。我試圖在這裡快速進行數學計算,但我認為這意味著反向只會上升大約個位數,而且我認為由於停電加上福克斯續約和另一個大四,你今年有一個不利的比較。因此,當您的同行也談到這一點時,您可能開始看到有機成長和反​​向薪資支出的速度有所放緩。因此,我希望對長期反向寬鬆政策有任何評論嗎?

  • And then, Mike, thank you for the information on the sports JV. A lot of us have been left to speculate on that. So that's very helpful. As you just continue to see probably in the future more rotation to both the vMVPDs and streaming services like Paramount and Peacock. How do you think about when you can kind of go back to the framework and reestablish your rates on a lot of those services since there's probably going to be more subs on those, say, 5 years from now and there are today? It's been an issue that's kind of been percolating in this industry in a long time. I don't think we've seen anything changes yet. So just wondering if there's any initiatives on that.

    然後,麥克,感謝您提供有關體育合資企業的資訊。我們很多人都對此進行了猜測。這非常有幫助。正如您繼續看到的那樣,未來可能會輪流轉向 vMVPD 和派拉蒙和 Peacock 等串流媒體服務。您如何看待何時可以回到框架並重新確定許多此類服務的費率,因為可能會有更多的訂閱者,例如 5 年後和今天?這是這個行業長期以來一直存在的問題。我認為我們還沒有看到任何變化。所以只是想知道是否有這方面的任何舉措。

  • Michael Biard - President & COO

    Michael Biard - President & COO

  • I think both of your questions get to the nature of our relationships with our network partners. And I think those relationships are unique. None of them are identical inside each of those relationships there, they are multifaceted with lots of moving pieces, both economic and noneconomic. You mentioned the relationship in 2 cases with the D2C products that they have and our participation inside those. I think that gets to the fact that across our relationships, each of them, we're not managing to a single feature. I know there's been some discussion about certain aspects of certain network affiliation agreements. We're not going to talk about any particular one because that's not the way we approach those relationships. We approach them holistically and manage across the entire relationship to a net cost that you can see reflected in the guidance that we provided.

    我認為您的兩個問題都涉及我們與網路合作夥伴關係的本質。我認為這些關係是獨一無二的。在這些關係中,沒有一個是完全相同的,它們是多方面的,有許多變化的因素,包括經濟的和非經濟的。您提到了兩個案例與他們擁有的D2C產品的關係以及我們在其中的參與。我認為這說明了這樣一個事實:在我們的關係中,我們每個人都沒有實現任何一個功能。我知道有人對某些網路從屬協定的某些方面進行了一些討論。我們不會談論任何特定的關係,因為這不是我們處理這些關係的方式。我們從整體上處理這些問題,並在整個關係中管理淨成本,您可以在我們提供的指南中看到這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Alan Gould with Loop Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的艾倫·古爾德 (Alan Gould)。

  • Alan Steven Gould - MD

    Alan Steven Gould - MD

  • I've got 2. First, Lee Ann, I noticed you said you're paying down some debt. Do you have ambitions to become an investment grade rated, which you haven't in the past, but your balance sheet is certainly getting you in that direction? And secondly, on the sports front, has Nexstar signed any of the local teams away from the RSNs, I was wondering what the economics of that would be?

    我有 2。首先,李安,我注意到你說你正在償還一些債務。您是否雄心勃勃地獲得投資級評級,而您過去沒有這樣做,但您的資產負債表肯定會讓您朝這個方向發展?其次,在體育方面,Nexstar 是否簽下了 RSN 以外的任何當地球隊,我想知道這樣做的經濟效益如何?

  • Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Just the one deal that I think we've given a lot of visibility to our station in Los Angeles and our Southern California stations have put together a package of LA Clippers games, basketball with Steve Ballmer's organization. And that we're in our second year of that, and I -- we just renewed the deal for another year or 2. And I can tell you that it is profitable to us. It's depending on the year, a total package of approximately 15 games plus or minus and depending on how many preseason games we decide we want to put into that package. But the arrangement is profitable for our flagship station for those games, KTLA as well as the affiliate stations thoughout Southern and Central California.

    我認為我們已經為我們在洛杉磯的電視台和南加州電視台提供了很多知名度,其中一項交易就是與史蒂夫·鮑爾默的組織一起整理了洛杉磯快艇隊的比賽和籃球比賽。我們已經進入了第二年,我們剛剛將協議續簽了一兩年。我可以告訴你,這對我們來說是有利可圖的。這取決於年份,總共大約有 15 場比賽加減,也取決於我們決定要在該包中加入多少場季前賽。但這種安排對於我們這些遊戲的旗艦電台 KTLA 以及遍布南加州和中加州的附屬電台來說是有利可圖的。

  • Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

    Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

  • And I'll just say on the investment-grade question, we're not actively working to try to get the company upgraded to investment grade. I think that has a lot to do with stating specific intentions about our balance sheet, which we are kind of not there yet. But -- and I also don't think from a cost of capital perspective, it's that differentiated in terms of where we are now versus where we would be. But what we are looking to kind of streamline kind of our political and nonpolitical years a little bit with respect to the share repurchases. So that's been a necessitate maybe just a modest amount of debt repayment incrementally this year in a political year when we back to the cash flow.

    我只想說,關於投資等級的問題,我們並沒有積極努力將公司升級到投資等級。我認為這與闡明我們的資產負債表的具體意圖有很大關係,而我們目前還沒有做到這一點。但是,我也不認為從資本成本的角度來看,我們現在所處的位置與未來的位置之間存在差異。但我們希望在股票回購方面稍微簡化我們的政治和非政治歲月。因此,在今年政治年,當我們回到現金流時,可能只需要逐步償還少量債務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Aaron Watts with Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的亞倫‧瓦茨 (Aaron Watts)。

  • Aaron Lee Watts - Research Analyst

    Aaron Lee Watts - Research Analyst

  • Covered a lot of ground. I just had one follow-up on the network relationship side. I believe you currently have a mix of 6 and variable compensation agreements with your partners given the pressures on subscriber growth. Do you see a realistic path to moving all of your reverse comp arrangements to a more variable structure? Is that something that's been discussed at all to date?

    覆蓋了很多地方。我剛剛在網絡關係方面進行了一次跟進。考慮到用戶成長的壓力,我相信您目前與合作夥伴簽訂了 6 項可變薪酬協議。您是否看到了將所有反向補償安排轉移到更可變的結構的現實途徑?這是迄今為止已經討論過的事情嗎?

  • Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Well, I think that you have to understand that our agreements are more new launched even than that. Even where we have what you might consider to be fixed arrangements, maybe there are collars around the bandwidth of both growth and contraction and there are all kinds of elements that go into baking the cake with each of our network we're on. As Michael said, I mean they are multifaceted, they are very complex, take a long time to negotiate. And money isn't always the only thing we talk about.

    嗯,我認為你必須明白,我們的協議比這更新推出。即使我們有你可能認為是固定的安排,但增長和收縮的頻寬可能都存在限制,而且我們所在的每個網絡都有各種各樣的元素來烘焙蛋糕。正如邁克爾所說,我的意思是它們是多方面的,非常複雜,需要很長時間來談判。金錢並不總是我們談論的唯一話題。

  • So I don't want to speculate on our business relationship with any one network or any number of networks. And Michael, if you want to add any more to that, but there's a lot of pieces to that. I think that what we are -- what we have said consistently is we pay you for programming and exclusivity of that program. And to the extent the program is becoming less exclusive, it is less valuable to us and we potentially will pay you less over time. And what form that takes, I think, would be to be determined. But there are dynamic discussions happening in real time. And I would just say that everyone at the table is aware of what's going on in the industry and that the sands are shifting under our feet. And there is a sensitivity to that all around the table.

    因此,我不想猜測我們與任何一個或任意數量的網路的業務關係。邁克爾,如果你想補充更多的話,但還有很多內容。我認為我們一直說的是,我們為您的程式設計和該程式的排他性付費。如果該計劃變得不那麼排他性,那麼它對我們的價值就會降低,隨著時間的推移,我們可能會向您支付更少的費用。我認為,採取何種形式仍有待確定。但動態討論是即時發生的。我只想說,桌上的每個人都知道這個行業正在發生什麼,我們腳下的沙子正在移動。會議桌上所有人都對此很敏感。

  • Michael, I don't know if you have anything you want to add?

    邁克爾,不知道你還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Michael Biard - President & COO

    Michael Biard - President & COO

  • I would just add, having been on both sides of the table for those discussions, I think I have probably unique appreciation for the fact that they are each very different, complex. And as I said before, I think focusing on a single aspect of those relationships, I think, misses the point. Certainly, misses the point from our perspective, which is we're going to manage the entire relationship to the net loss. And I know there's been focus on the fixed cost aspect that some have talked about. At the right price, I would take fixed cost. It's all about how that cost works through our business, and that's what we're focused on.

    我想補充一點,在參加過這些討論的雙方之後,我想我可能對它們各自非常不同、複雜這一事實有獨特的欣賞。正如我之前所說,我認為只關注這些關係的某個方面沒有抓住重點。當然,從我們的角度來看,這並沒有抓住重點,即我們將管理與淨損失的整個關係。我知道有些人一直在關注固定成本方面。在適當的價格下,我會採取固定成本。這一切都與成本如何在我們的業務中發揮作用有關,這也是我們關注的重點。

  • Aaron Lee Watts - Research Analyst

    Aaron Lee Watts - Research Analyst

  • Okay. That's really helpful. And then just lastly, Lee Ann, I heard your comments to another question around investment grade, whether you had that way or not. But maybe I can ask that a different way. Just given the increased scrutiny around leverage in the space, what is your leverage comfort zone, maybe it's where you're at today? And where would you like to see that level trend over the next couple of years?

    好的。這真的很有幫助。最後,Lee Ann,我聽到了您對有關投資評級的另一個問題的評論,無論您是否有這種方式。但也許我可以用不同的方式問這個問題。鑑於該領域對槓桿的審查越來越嚴格,您的槓桿舒適區是什麼,也許這就是您今天所處的位置?您希望未來幾年的水平趨勢如何?

  • Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

    Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

  • We're very comfortable with where our leverage is today. And we obviously have an odd and an even year impact here, but I don't think we have any need to really kind of do any major deleveraging given the relative level of risk. I think this is a question that we get asked a lot. I mean, we're going to be -- we'll be less than 3x levered in total this year. I mean that -- so like I think this is actually one of the deleveraging factors we think that we have with the company. I mean I think a lot of -- we get a lot of questions about our leverage, but that's because, unfortunately, some of our peers in our group are much more levered than we are.

    我們對今天的槓桿水平感到非常滿意。顯然,我們在這裡有奇數年和偶數年的影響,但考慮到相對風險水平,我認為我們沒有必要真正進行任何重大的去槓桿化。我認為這是一個我們經常被問到的問題。我的意思是,今年我們的槓桿總額將低於 3 倍。我的意思是——所以我認為這實際上是我們認為公司的去槓桿化因素之一。我的意思是,我認為很多人對我們的槓桿率有很多疑問,但這是因為,不幸的是,我們團隊中的一些同行的槓桿率比我們高得多。

  • And I think this is where we sort of just keep pointing to our free cash flow and say, look, this is a differentiated business. And we feel very good about where we are from a business model perspective and from a leverage perspective. And I don't think that the questions that we get, we think are kind of more a bounce back of maybe some questions that are happening with some of our peers that don't have the balance sheet that we have.

    我認為這就是我們不斷指出我們的自由現金流並說,看,這是一項差異化業務的地方。從商業模式和槓桿的角度來看,我們對自己的處境感到非常滿意。我不認為我們收到的問題更像是我們一些沒有我們擁有的資產負債表的同行正在發生的一些問題的反彈。

  • Aaron Lee Watts - Research Analyst

    Aaron Lee Watts - Research Analyst

  • Fair point. Appreciate the time.

    有道理。珍惜時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.

    下一個問題來自克雷格·胡貝爾 (Craig Huber) 和胡貝爾研究合作夥伴 (Huber Research Partners)。

  • Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

    Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

  • A few questions. I'll go one at a time here. Can you just talk a little further about your TV station core advertising trends, what you're seeing in the first quarter versus what you saw in the fourth quarter? In particular, what categories are doing significantly better or worse? Just how things are trending in, please?

    幾個問題。我這裡一次就去一個。您能否進一步談談您的電視台核心廣告趨勢,您在第一季和第四季看到的情況?特別是哪些類別的表現明顯較好或較差?請問事情進展如何?

  • Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

    Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

  • Craig, it's Lee Ann. Our advertising in the first quarter is doing slightly worse from a year-over-year percentage decline basis in the first quarter as it was in the fourth quarter. There's no specific category that is necessarily driving that. It's more of the same sort of level of broad-based decline that we've seen across our categories in the last few quarters. I would say we continue to be impacted on the national side and on -- in our larger markets, which are more challenged than some of our smaller markets. But there isn't anything in particular that we can point to, to say, aha, it was sports betting, that's been declining for some time now. So I wouldn't think there's anything in particular that's I can call out.

    克雷格,我是李安。與第四季相比,我們第一季的廣告表現與去年同期相比略有下降。沒有特定的類別必然推動這一趨勢。這與過去幾季我們在各個類別中看到的廣泛下降水準更為相似。我想說的是,我們在全國範圍內以及在我們較大的市場中繼續受到影響,這些市場比我們的一些較小市場面臨的挑戰更大。但我們沒有什麼特別可以指出的,啊哈,這是體育博彩,它已經下降了一段時間了。所以我認為沒有什麼特別值得我指出的。

  • Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

    Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

  • My second question...

    我的第二個問題...

  • Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

    Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

  • Aside from the Super Bowl impact, which Mike spoke about in the first quarter.

    除了麥克在第一節談到的超級盃影響之外。

  • Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

    Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

  • Okay. My second question, please. Curious, if you're budgeting for the distribution that you're expecting to get this year through equity method investment, are you expecting a significant change one way or the other versus what you got last year?

    好的。我的第二個問題,請。好奇的是,如果您正在為預計今年透過權益法投資獲得的分配進行預算,您是否預計與去年相比會出現重大變化?

  • Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

    Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

  • (inaudible) network distribution?

    (聽不清楚)網路分佈?

  • Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

    Craig Anthony Huber - CEO, MD & Research Analyst

  • Yes, exactly. That -- all that stuff rolled up, yes. That's roughly different this year, you're thinking?

    對,就是這樣。那——所有這些東西都捲起來了,是的。今年情況大致不同,你在想嗎?

  • Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

    Lee Ann Gliha - Executive VP & CFO

  • That's a national television network, right? We see what's going on in our business. So we thought what happened last year. So we expect that to be down this year versus last year. We've been talking about what those rate of decline has been all year. And I think just to refresh, the first quarter payment, which we've not received yet, is the bulk of -- the rest of the distribution from last year's earnings. So it sort of lagged a little bit because the remaining payments we get for the rest of the year are tax payments related to the current year's -- the current year's income.

    那是一個國家電視網,對吧?我們看到我們的業務正在發生什麼。所以我們想到了去年發生的事。因此,我們預計今年這一數字將比去年有所下降。我們一直在討論全年的下降率。我想重申一下,我們尚未收到的第一季付款是去年收益分配的大部分。所以它有點滯後,因為我們今年剩餘時間收到的剩餘付款是與本年收入相關的稅金。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Jim Goss with Barrington Research.

    下一個問題來自 Barrington Research 的 Jim Goss。

  • James Charles Goss - MD

    James Charles Goss - MD

  • All right. You've positioned NewsNation particularly well, it appears, and I think I said recently that the electorate is something like 27% Democrat, 27% Republican and then 42% independent. And I'm wondering if you might talk about exploiting that potential going into this fiscal year. I know you've done debates and that's been particularly good in raising visibility.

    好的。看來你對 NewsNation 的定位特別好,我想我最近說過,選民中大約有 27% 是民主黨人,27% 是共和黨人,然後是 42% 獨立人士。我想知道您是否可以談論在本財年挖掘這一潛力。我知道你們已經進行過辯論,這對於提高知名度特別有用。

  • And also in terms of programming costs, I think a lot of the competitors in the news category things to repeat, a lot of programming rather than have all originals. I wonder how you look at that. And finally, in terms of -- I was wondering if you've been able to identify certain demographics you've been attracting with NewsNation and advertiser groups that might be attractive to that demographic?

    而且在節目製作成本方面,我認為很多競爭對手在新聞類別中的東西要重複,很多節目而不是全部原創。我想知道你如何看待這一點。最後,我想知道您是否能夠確定 NewsNation 所吸引的特定人群以及可能對該人群有吸引力的廣告商群體?

  • Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Jim, I will endeavor to cover that. If I miss something, let me know. As it relates to the repeat factor, we do repeat our prime time talk an opinion shows overnight. They actually do pretty well on the West Coast were watching those in prime time, in real time. And so the cume of that audience is something that's useful for sales. The only other thing we repeat is on Sunday nights and Saturday nights when we're in live news and early prime on the East Coast, we repeat that broadcast basically for the West Coast immediately thereafter.

    吉姆,我會盡力報道這一點。如果我錯過了什麼,請告訴我。由於涉及重複因素,我們確實會重複我們的黃金時段談話和意見隔夜播出的內容。事實上,他們在西海岸的表現相當不錯,可以即時觀看黃金時段的節目。因此,觀眾的數量對銷售很有用。我們唯一重複的另一件事是在周日晚上和周六晚上,當我們在東海岸進行現場新聞和早期黃金時段時,我們基本上會立即在西海岸重複該廣播。

  • But the rest of the programming is all original. And as we expand, we see really no difference -- no different pattern as to what we plan to do there. And we will be 24/7 with news programming here, literally ahead of schedule in 2024 and earlier in the year than we had originally anticipated.

    但其餘的程式設計都是原創的。隨著我們的擴張,我們發現實際上沒有什麼區別——我們計劃在那裡做什麼沒有不同的模式。我們將全天候 (24/7) 提供新聞節目,這實際上比 2024 年的計劃提前,比我們最初預期的更早。

  • As it relates to the demo, the audience for cable news, the audience for television in general SKUs generally older, linear television, and we're no exception to that. The primary pocket of audience that we're focused on is the 35 to 64 demographics, slightly older than 25, 54. We're trying to bring advertisers along to that. We also think the 2-plus audience is of value to some advertisers and we report that number as well.

    因為它涉及演示,有線電視新聞的觀眾,一般 SKU 的電視觀眾通常是較舊的線性電視,我們也不例外。我們關注的主要受眾群體是 35 歲至 64 歲的人群,略高於 25 歲、54 歲。我們正在努力吸引廣告商關注這一群體。我們也認為 2 人以上的受眾對某些廣告商來說很有價值,我們也報告了這個數字。

  • As it relates to the skewing of the audience to the electric, we have said since the founding of this that we thought the biggest swim lane in America where those people that were not on the lunatic left or the lunatic right, which is about 60% of America that we can agree on more than we disagree on. And our job is just building awareness. When we started the network with a pretty substantial prelaunch publicity campaign, we launched with a 10% or 11% awareness of NewsNation that awareness is now up to a number in the mid-30s, but that still means that roughly 60% of the country, we still need to introduce ourselves to the viewer.

    由於這涉及到觀眾對電子產品的偏向,自成立以來我們就說過,我們認為美國最大的泳道中那些不屬於瘋狂左翼或瘋狂右翼的人(大約佔 60%)我們對美國的共識是,我們可以達成的共識多於我們的分歧。我們的工作只是建立意識。當我們以相當大的啟動前宣傳活動啟動網路時,我們在NewsNation 上有10% 或11% 的認知度,現在的認知度已達到30 多歲,但這仍然意味著全國大約60% 的人,我們還需要向觀眾介紹一下自己。

  • Distribution is not the issue. It is because we now are -- we are fully distributed and have a larger distribution base than MSNBC. Again, for a network that is less than 4 years old in its current form. So it's all about building awareness for our product and getting people to change their habits and come to us. And we see these green shoots, nights where we are competitive with and, in fact, beat our more established competitors. We just need more of those and it's a process.

    分配不是問題。這是因為我們現在是——我們是完全分散式的,並且擁有比 MSNBC 更大的分銷基礎。同樣,對於當前形式的網路來說還不到 4 年。因此,這一切都是為了提高我們產品的知名度並讓人們改變他們的習慣並來到我們這裡。我們看到了這些萌芽,我們與更成熟的競爭對手競爭,事實上,擊敗了我們的夜晚。我們只需要更多這樣的東西,這是一個過程。

  • I'm very pleased with the progress we've made. We're ahead of schedule on where I thought we would be and pivoting this network to news from general entertainment. Thank God that we did because that is what people are interested in watching and not so much to the general entertainment networks that, as you know, in basic cable are in free form.

    我對我們所取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們提前實現了我的預期,並將該網絡轉向一般娛樂新聞。感謝上帝,我們這樣做了,因為這是人們感興趣的觀看內容,而不是對一般娛樂網絡感興趣,如您所知,基本有線電視是免費形式的。

  • So from our perspective, it was an opportunistic pivot made at absolutely the right time. And like I said, we're ahead of schedule in terms of all the growth metrics that I look at, but it is a -- this is a long-term build and long-term value creation play that we are financing organically with the program expense underwriting the journalism expense as we continue to complete this pivot.

    因此,從我們的角度來看,這是在絕對正確的時間做出的機會主義轉向。正如我所說,就我所關注的所有成長指標而言,我們都領先於計劃,但這是一項長期建設和長期價值創造活動,我們正在與隨著我們繼續完成這一點,項目費用將承擔新聞費用。

  • James Charles Goss - MD

    James Charles Goss - MD

  • All right. Great comments. I think I'll leave there.

    好的。很棒的評論。我想我會離開那裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Barton Crockett with Rosenblatt Securities.

    下一個問題來自羅森布拉特證券公司的 Barton Crockett。

  • Barton Evans Crockett - MD & Senior Internet Media Analyst

    Barton Evans Crockett - MD & Senior Internet Media Analyst

  • I was curious about the competitive dynamics in the ad market. So you flagged some pressures, particularly in national and the bigger cities. We're all aware that there's a lot of new inventory that's coming in on some of the streaming services taking ads, Netflix and Amazon Prime taking ads and some of the fast services still growing. Is that a competitive? Is that a meaningful factor in the ad market? Do you think that's part of what's weighing on the market at this point? So if you could comment on that, I'd be interested.

    我對廣告市場的競爭動態感到好奇。所以你指出了一些壓力,特別是在全國和大城市。我們都知道,一些接受廣告的串流服務、Netflix 和 Amazon Prime 接受廣告以及一些仍在增長的快速服務將帶來大量新庫存。這算競技嗎?這對廣告市場來說是有意義的因素嗎?您認為這是目前市場壓力的一部分嗎?所以如果你能對此發表評論,我會很感興趣。

  • And then the second question is just there's a lot of discussion about some of the big entertainment conglomerates perhaps restructuring. There was a flurry of activity before about Disney and ABC. Now there's a flurry of talk around Paramount maybe potentially FOX, potentially Comcast. In general, if there was a broadcast network for sale, what's your level of interest? What's the potential for you guys to be able to make something like that work if it were to become available?

    第二個問題是,有很多關於一些大型娛樂集團可能重組的討論。此前,迪士尼和美國廣播公司曾有一系列活動。現在有很多關於派拉蒙的討論,可能是福克斯,也可能是康卡斯特。一般來說,如果有廣播網絡可供出售,您的興趣程度如何?如果這樣的東西能夠實現的話,你們有什麼潛力可以實現呢?

  • Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • I'll speak to the last question first and then let Mike speak more to advertising. But I would just say, we buy things and we build things. If you look at the company, the stations drive our network that we own today and distribution uses all of that to gain distribution as well as distribution revenue for the entire portfolio. It's kind of like one building block on another. In theory, we could own a big 4 broadcast network in addition to the CW and you would like to. I think we would say never say never, but it would have to be like everything else we've ever bought an actionable transaction at a value that would make sense for us.

    我先談談最後一個問題,然後讓麥克談談廣告。但我只想說,我們購買東西並建造東西。如果你看看這家公司,這些電台驅動著我們今天擁有的網絡,而分銷利用所有這些來獲得整個投資組合的分銷和分銷收入。這有點像一個構建塊放在另一個構建塊上。理論上,除了 CW 之外,我們還可以擁有一個四大廣播網絡,而且您願意。我認為我們會說永遠不會說永遠,但這必須像我們曾經以對我們有意義的價格購買的所有其他可操作交易一樣。

  • So I think I would just leave it go at that, but we would not have an allergic reaction to having that discussion. But again, it would have to be the same kind of opportunistic acquisition that we have made in the 27-year history of the company. And the new entrants into the ad market are -- have tiny audiences at this point. And so they're not really a factor. I would just say that we're in some phase of a recession here. And whether we have a soft landing, a hard landing, a hockey stick recovery or whatever, and advertising is generally a leading economic indicator, and that is weighing more heavily on the market than any of these new entrants from my perspective. Michael, do you want to add some color?

    所以我想我就這樣吧,但我們不會對這種討論產生過敏反應。但同樣,這必須是我們在公司 27 年歷史中進行的同樣類型的機會主義收購。而廣告市場的新進者目前的受眾還很小。所以它們並不是真正的因素。我只想說我們正處於經濟衰退的某個階段。無論我們是軟著陸、硬著陸、曲棍球棒復甦還是其他什麼,廣告通常是一個領先的經濟指標,在我看來,廣告對市場的影響比任何新進入者都更大。邁克爾,你想添加一些顏色嗎?

  • Michael Biard - President & COO

    Michael Biard - President & COO

  • Yes. I would add on the advertising point that I think our portfolio both in terms of where we focus our advertising and the lion's share of our advertising is local, not national. And I think our sales force, which covers the country generally gives us a distinct competitive advantage versus the platforms that you mentioned. Also with respect to our growing portfolio of sports, both with respect to the local TV stations and our national networks, live programming gives us another advantage relative to where we think those other platforms will focus their advertising efforts.

    是的。我想補充一點廣告,我認為我們的投資組合無論是我們的廣告重點還是大部分廣告都是本地的,而不是全國的。我認為,與您提到的平台相比,我們覆蓋全國的銷售團隊通常為我們帶來了明顯的競爭優勢。此外,就我們不斷增長的體育賽事組合而言,無論是當地電視台還是全國網絡,直播節目為我們提供了另一個優勢,相對於我們認為其他平台將集中廣告力度的地方。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Sook for any closing comments.

    目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權交還給蘇克先生,請他發表最後的評論。

  • Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Perry A. Sook - Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you very much, operator. Just to close out, our business fundamentals, our financial track record and our free cash flow generation continue to remain strong and we're confident that our capital allocation strategy will continue to drive industry-leading returns for our shareholders in 2024 and beyond. Thanks very much for joining us, everyone. We look forward to speaking with you again in 3 months' time when we report our first quarter 2024 results. Have a good day.

    非常感謝您,接線生。最後,我們的業務基本面、財務業績記錄和自由現金流產生繼續保持強勁,我們相信我們的資本配置策略將在 2024 年及以後繼續為股東帶來行業領先的回報。非常感謝大家加入我們。我們期待在 3 個月後報告 2024 年第一季業績時再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。