NexPoint Residential Trust Inc (NXRT) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Tiffany, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the NexPoint Residential Trust Q4 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Kristen Griffith, Investor Relations. Kristen, please go ahead.

  • Kristen Thomas - Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Good day, everyone, and welcome to NexPoint Residential Trust conference call to review the company's results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. On the call today are Paul Richards, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Matt McGraner, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer; and Bonner McDermett, Vice President, Asset and Investment Management.

  • As a reminder, this call is being webcast through the company's website at nxrt.nexpoint.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that are based on management's current expectations, assumptions and beliefs.

  • Listeners should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements and are encouraged to review the company's most recent annual report on Form 10-K and the company's other filings with the SEC for a more complete discussion of risks and other factors that could affect any forward-looking statements.

  • The statements made during this conference call speak only as of today's date, and except as required by law, NXRT does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. This conference call also includes an analysis of non-GAAP financial measures. For a more complete discussion of these non-GAAP financial measures, see the company's earnings release that was filed earlier today.

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Paul Richards. Please go ahead, Paul.

  • Paul Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer, Assistant Secretary

  • Thanks, Kristen, and welcome, everyone, joining us this morning. We appreciate your time. I'll kick off the call and cover our Q4 and full year results and highlights, update our NAV calculation and then provide initial 2026 guidance.

  • I'll then turn it over to Matt to discuss specifics on the leasing environment and metrics driving our performance and guidance and details on the portfolio. Results for Q4 are as follows: net loss for the fourth quarter was a loss of $10.3 million or $0.41 per diluted share on total revenue of $62.1 million as compared to a net loss of $26.9 million or $1.06 per diluted share in the same period in 2024 on total revenue of $63.8 million.

  • For the fourth quarter, NOI was $37.1 million on 35 properties compared to $38.9 million on 35 properties for the fourth quarter of 2024, a 4.7% decrease in NOI. For the fourth quarter, same-store rental income decreased 2.8% and same-store occupancy closed at 92.7%. This, coupled with an increase in same-store expenses of 1.1%, led to a decrease in same-store NOI of 4.8% as compared to Q4 2024.

  • We reported Q4 core FFO of $16.5 million or $0.65 per diluted share compared to $0.68 per diluted share in Q4 '24. During 2025, NXRT repurchased 223,109 shares for a weighted average price of $34.29 per share, which is approximately 29% discount to the midpoint of our Q4 '25 NAV to be discussed here shortly.

  • We continue to execute our value-add business plan by completing 388 full and partial renovations during the quarter and leased 275 renovated units, achieving an average monthly rent premium of $74 and a 22.2% ROI. Since inception, NXRT has completed installation of 9,866 full and partial upgrades, 4,979 kitchen and laundry appliances and 11,199 tech packages, resulting in $158, $50 and $43 average monthly rental increases per unit and 20.8%, 63.7% and 37.2% ROI, respectively. Results for the full year 2025 rolls.

  • Net loss for the year ended December 31 was $32 million or a loss of $1.26 per diluted share which included a $95.8 million of depreciation and amortization expense. This compared to net income of $1.1 million or income of $0.04 per diluted share for the full year of '24, which included a gain on sale of real estate of $54.2 million and a $97.8 million of depreciation and amortization expense.

  • As a quick reminder, the company sold our 2 remaining Houston assets as well as Radbourne Lake in Charlotte in '24. For the year, NOI was $151.7 million on 35 properties as compared to $157 million on 35 properties for the same period in 2024 or a decrease of 3.4%. For the year, same-store rental income decreased 1.3% and same-store occupancy closed at 92.7%.

  • This, coupled with a slight increase in same-store expenses of 0.1% led to a decrease in same-store NOI of 1.6% as compared to the full year in '24. We reported core FFO in 2025 of $71.3 million or $2.79 per diluted share compared to $2.79 per diluted share for 2024. Since inception of the business in 2015, NXRT has generated 8.54% compounded annual growth rate in our core FFO.

  • Moving to the NAV per share. Based on our current estimate of cap rates in our markets, unchanged at 5.25% to 5.75% and our 2026 NOI guidance, we are reporting a NAV per share range as follows: $41.43 on the low end, $55.72 on the high end with $48.57 at the midpoint. Next, our dividend update. For the fourth quarter, we paid a dividend of $0.53 per share on December 31. Since inception, we have increased our dividend 157.3%.

  • For 2025, our dividend was 1.35x covered by Core FFO with a payout ratio of 73.8% of core FFO. Now capital markets balance sheet, leverage and liquidity. On July 11, 2025, the company entered into a $200 million revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase Bank and the lenders party thereto from time to time. The credit facility may be increased by up to an additional $200 million if the lenders agreed to increase their commitments.

  • The new facility improves pricing by 15 basis points across all leverage tiers to term SOFR plus 150 to 225 basis points. The credit facility will mature on July 30, 2028, unless the company exercises its option to extend for a 1-year term. NXRT has $13.7 million of unrestricted cash and $108 million of available undrawn capacity on our unsecured corporate credit facility, giving the company $121.7 million of available liquidity as we head into 2026. We have no scheduled debt maturities until 2028. Over time, we will look to reduce leverage, credit facility leverage, in particular, through a disposition and recycling of long-held lower-growth assets where we have the ability to harvest gains and put capital back to work into more productive strategies and investments.

  • As of December 31, 2025, we had total indebtedness of $1.6 billion at an adjusted weighted average interest rate at 3.28%. Interest rate swap agreements effectively fixed the interest rate on $0.9 billion or 62% of our $1.5 billion of floating rate mortgage debt outstanding. As we have done historically, we will continue to evaluate the credit markets for opportunities to hedge or restructure our debt to best position our assets and the portfolio for future growth while maintaining the highly liquid low friction optionality afforded to us through the use of floating rate agency mortgage financing arrangements. Full year 2026 guidance. For 2026, we are issuing the guidance as follows: rental income on the low end, 0%, with a midpoint of 0.9% and the high end of 1.9%.

  • Total revenue, low end of 0.1% with a midpoint of 1.1% and a high end of 2%. Total expenses, low end of 4.2%, midpoint 3.5%, high-end 2.8%. Same-store NOI, low end, negative 2.5% midpoint, negative 0.5% and the high end of 1.5% earnings per diluted share, low end, negative $1.54; midpoint, negative $1.40 and the high end, negative $1.26. And lastly, core FFO per diluted share, low end, $2.42, midpoint, $2.57 and at the high end, $2.71.

  • Matt will go into detail on our same-store operating assumptions with his prepared remarks and the largest driver from our '25 actuals to '26 midpoint guidance is interest expense. And again, Matt will provide details on our thoughts regarding upside on the operational front and our same-store operating assumptions.

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to Matt for commentary on the portfolio.

  • Matthew Mcgraner - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer

  • Thank you, Paul. Let me start by diving a bit deeper into our fourth quarter same-store operational results. Same-store average effective rents closed the year at $1,489 per unit per month, down 10 basis points year-over-year. Six of our 10 same-store markets generated positive year-over-year growth in effective rents with Tampa leading the way at 3.1%, followed by Las Vegas, South Florida and Charlotte at 2.1%, 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively.

  • On the occupancy front, the same-store portfolio closed the year at 92.7%, down 195 basis points year-over-year. South Florida took the pole position at 94.5% with Phoenix, Charlotte and Raleigh rounding out the top 4 markets with at least 93% occupancy as of the year-end. We saw noteworthy occupancy improvement in Phoenix, in particular, building to 94.5% as the team maintained heavy focus on defense to combat the heavy delivery of new units over the past several quarters. Renewal conversions were 57.4% for the quarter and 54.25% for the full year, with 2026 retention been starting off strong with January over 50% and February month-to-date is 51.6%. March is projected to finish around 56%.

  • Revenue for the year of 5 of our 10 same-store markets delivered positive revenue growth with South Florida, Atlanta and Raleigh each growing at least 1%. Tampa and Charlotte rounded out the growth markets. Bad debt continued to trend down, finishing the year at 80 basis points of GPR, a 42% improvement year-over-year, demonstrating both the health of our tenant demographic as well as the efficacy of the centralized screening techniques we have employed to strengthen our portfolio post COVID.

  • Tampa, Raleigh and Atlanta saw particular improvements to bad debt with each reducing losses by more than half the prior year total. Concession utilization has increased from 38 basis points as a percentage of gross potential rent in 2024, up to 69 basis points for the full year 2025. The most noteworthy increase clearly seen within our Phoenix market at 1.4% of GPR as our value-add assets remain to contend with the significant market level occupancy acquisition strategies for merchant builders throughout the year. Phoenix, Orlando, South Florida and Atlanta each saw a need for increased concessions with 1.1%, 0.47%, 0.4% and 0.36% increase in utilization, respectively.

  • Overall, same-store revenues were down 1% year-over-year and turning to the expense side. With limited catalysts for revenue growth in 2025, the team paid particular attention to expense management, and we're pleased to report a full year decline of 10 basis points to same-store operating expenses. Advances in AI and our strategic focus on its development to streamline workflows across both our resident and property staff experience enabled us to achieve a 3.7% year-over-year decrease in total payroll costs and an 80 basis point decline in office operations expense.

  • We see this trend continuing, and I'll have more detail later on this in my prepared remarks. Thoughtful asset management, zero-based budgeting and our sharp focus on management cost -- cost management and material contract negotiation kept the lid on repair and maintenance expense inflation growing by just 2.5% for the year. Other favorable results were realized through our real estate tax and insurance strategies, up 1.8% and down 12% for the year, respectively. Our full year same-store NOI margin was a stable 60.8%, while our year-over-year same-store portfolio finished down 1.6%, as Paul mentioned. Notable same-store NOI growth markets for the year were South Florida, Charlotte and Nashville at 1.4%, 1% and 90 basis points, respectively.

  • On December 11, 2025, NXRT purchased Sedona at Lone Mountain in Las Vegas, Nevada for $73.25 million. Management identified an opportunistic high-growth acquisition in a long-term market. The strategy involves deploying accretive value-add capital to normalize economic occupancy and expand operating margins through targeted demand generation, interior and amenity enhancements, lifestyle upgrades and disciplined execution ultimately driving asset appreciation and outsized returns.

  • Recent large-scale developments have driven significant expansion, job growth and residential revitalization in North Las Vegas, which is now the Las Vegas Valley most prominent industrial market. Over 15 million square feet of industrial space is currently under construction or planned supporting the creation of 8,000 new jobs in the market. And as a reminder, we intend to improve economic occupancy by approximately 900 basis points over 4 years, while upgrading 182 units and installing smart home technology throughout the community, driving a 7.2% NOI CAGR through 2029.

  • Now turning to 2026 guidance. As Paul said, we are guiding between 2.5% decline and a 1.5% increase in same-store NOI growth through 2026, with the midpoint projecting a 50 basis points reduction year-over-year. Our 2026 guidance includes the following assumptions: a 90 basis point rental income growth at the midpoint, forecasting 93.4% to 94.1% financial occupancy with peak occupancy model for Q3 with a more normal seasonal demand and performance expectation for the year, a negative 30 basis point earn-out from lease trade-outs and a gain to lease inversion in 2025, a positive 1.2% market rent growth in 2025 with roughly 40% realized this year, predominantly in the second half of the year.

  • A positive 40 basis point top line growth attributable to ROI CapEx spending as detailed further hereafter. Flat economic occupancy at 91.8% at the midpoint, 30 basis points lower vacancy costs at the midpoint, 93.7% versus 93.4% for the prior year. We're stabilizing bad debt at approximately 80 basis points with a range of 70 basis points to 90 basis points, down more than 75% from peak pandemic era payment behavior. And then flattish concession utilization at 71 basis points to GPR heavily weighted in the first half of the year. We're assuming 1.1% total revenue growth at the midpoint, driven by modest rental income growth expectations I just went over and mid-single-digit other income growth.

  • Turning to expense guidance. We're assuming 6.4% controllable expense growth at the midpoint. 80% of this growth is attributable to bulk increase Wi-Fi contract costs that have a direct revenue offset. We're assuming down 1% R&M and turn cost growth with turnover and interior R&M is expected to decrease $375,000 or 8.4% due to effective cost management and an increased volume of renovations in 2026. We're assuming 2% labor growth.

  • The continuation of our rollout of AI technology and centralization of operations contribute to modest labor growth. We see optimism in outperforming our midpoint as we further implement Agentic AI strategies and maintenance potting across our markets. We're assuming a 7.4% growth in advertising and marketing expense and just a 10 basis point growth in G&A expense.

  • We're assuming total expense growth of 3.5% at the midpoint, which is a 4.5% increase in the utility expense line item a 2.1% insurance premium reduction, assuming a 0% to 10% renewal on April 1 of this year. For that, our team, including Paul here, we're recently meeting with the markets in both London and New York and we're optimistic we'll achieve another favorable outcome for the program with this 2026 renewal.

  • On the real estate tax expense growth side, we're assuming a positive 4.4% growth. Real estate taxes make up 31% of the 3.9% total expense increase at the midpoint and are expecting the band of real estate taxes to increase from 2% to 8% across the portfolio. And of course, we will protest and litigate outsized value assessments vigorously throughout the year.

  • On the value-add side, we continue to be an internal growth business at our core. And to that end, our guidance includes the following assumptions regarding our value-add programs, which remain aligned with our historical 15% to 20% ROI targets. We expect to accelerate value-add CapEx deployment towards the back half of 2026 and into 2027 as our submarkets see net demand and occupancy pricing power improves for landlords.

  • We're assuming approximately 300 full interior upgrades at an average cost of $16,500 per unit and generating a $240 average monthly premium. We're assuming approximately 400 partial interior upgrades at an average cost of $3,500 per unit, generating a $70 average monthly premium. These partial upgrades include varying bespoke additions such as new stainless steel appliances, hard surface countertops, updated tub enclosures and private yards, among other aspects. These partial bespoke rehab initiatives are strategically tailored by property to drive rent growth where we see opportunities among competing properties. Blended ROI expectations here are in the low to mid-20s.

  • And if market conditions allow, we have identified another 1,500 bespoke upgrades across the portfolio with double-digit ROIs. Finally, we also plan to install 680 washer dryer installs at an average cost of $1,200 per unit, generating a $54 monthly average premium or 54% return on investment.

  • Now turning to summarize our outlook for the 2026 year. Basically, we like what we own. We believe affordable residential assets in well-located suburbs and the top job growth and net migration markets in the country will outpace demand over the near term. Our markets are business friendly with a continued and persistent tailwind of factors pointing towards Sun Belt growth. You name it, we have it, taxes, weather, business climate, jobs, investment in physical and digital infrastructure.

  • Indeed, many signs for growth we're already pointing to the Sun Belt, and we believe still are. In underpinning our guidance for the year is cautious optimism. We think the Sun Belt multifamily market is approaching its long-awaited inflection point.

  • After absorbing the largest supply of wave since the 1980s, completions -- with completions peaking at almost 700,000 units in 2024, a 54% increase from 2021 baseline completions, we are optimistic that new lease growth is set to turn positive across most Sun Belt markets than the second half of this year with sharp acceleration into 2027. Reasons for our belief include persistent structural demand. The cost to own a home is 3x more to rent an apartment in our markets.

  • A 60% decline in new market rate deliveries from the peak and construction starts running approximately 70% below their 2022 peak, locking in a multiyear supply trough. Weighting each NXRT market by unit exposure, the portfolio level to jobs new construction unit ratio bottomed at approximately 1.5 jobs to one unit of new delivery in mid-2025 and our entire portfolio is projected to cross back above the historically significant ratio of 4 jobs to one unit by Q1 of 2027.

  • However, the recovery is highly asymmetric. Roughly 35% of our portfolio, South Florida, Las Vegas and Atlanta is already at or approaching equilibrium, while 44%, including Phoenix and DFW won't reach that threshold until 2026. But for example, South Florida or 21% of our NOI has an adjusted BLS nonfarm payroll divided by the CoStar and Yardi delivery ratio of 7.5 jobs to 1 unit, well above the equilibrium.

  • Atlanta or 12.5% of NOI just crossed back over 5:1. And given that supply is now relatively muted over the near term, the key variable is whether Sun Belt job growth and net migration can maintain its recent pace. If it can, the supply cliff now baked into every NXRT market's pipeline creates the conditions for a sharp and synchronized recovery in the second half of 2026.

  • Another reason for optimism is the demographic profile of our renter population. We do believe in AI and that it will have a near-term chilling effect over entry-level white-collar jobs. But today, the NXRT average renter is largely blue collar, 38 years old with a household income of $90,000 per year, not really the AI bulls eye. Furthermore, advances in health and wellness are adding longevity to the population, creating somewhat of a demographic backstop to demand. The 65-plus percent population -- 65-plus population is growing at 3% to 5% across NXRT markets and Harvard JCHS projects the senior renter population to double from 5.8 million households to 12.2 million households by 2030.

  • While obviously a senior housing tailwind, we are starting to see sizable signs of this trend in our own rent rolls. So in closing and through the last few -- even though the last few years have indeed been difficult, we're optimistic that new lease inflection will happen in the Sun Belt this year for the vast majority of our portfolio.

  • In the meantime, we will continue to do all that we can to utilize technology to become more efficient, drive value-add programs and ultimately drive value for our tenants and our shareholders. That's all I have for prepared remarks. Thanks to our teams here at NexPoint and BH for continuing to execute. And with that, we'll turn the call over to the operator for questions.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

  • Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

  • First question around the refurbishments and remodeling. I think you mentioned that in 2026, you're going to do about 400 of those and then you do like 600 washer dryer installations. So that's like 1,000 altogether versus, I think in 2025, you did about 1,800 total volume. Just kind of curious why you kind of have the drop, especially as you're talking about they could still do another 1,500 if market conditions allow.

  • Matthew Mcgraner - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes, Tayo, it's Matt. Maybe I didn't come across or you misheard the categories. So the plan is to do 300 full upgrades across the portfolio, an additional 400 partials and then roughly -- yes, and so I think that was the delta, but we're ending up basically at the same place at about 1,700 units. And then as if we're -- if what we believe will happen, happens, then we'll be able to drive those incremental bespoke upgrades that I mentioned that can't reach up to 1,500 additional units.

  • Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

  • That's awesome and helpful. And then in regards to the interest rate swaps, again, a few years ago, you guys kind of successfully negotiated some of these swaps and kind of came out ahead with some lower rates. Just kind of curious as you kind of think about '26, how you kind of see that playing out this time around, especially when again, you do kind of see rates have been coming down at least to start the year.

  • Paul Richards - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer, Assistant Secretary

  • Yes. Great question, Tayo. This is Paul. So yes, we look at '26 and what the swap markets is pricing a 3-, 5-, 7-year swap. And it just isn't taking in what we fully expect on the rate cut side.

  • If you look at the current Fed dot plot, the dispersion is extremely interesting. You have a deeply divided committee with 175 basis points of actual spread with mirroring at the bottom end at 2 1/8% and you have a few multiple hawks that you are pricing in 0 rate cuts this year.

  • We had 3 dissenters this past meeting. So it's a really deeply divided dot plot, which is affecting swap markets and not really pricing what we truly believe will be at the end of the year with rate cuts. So we're holding tight right now on putting and layering in additional swaps. But again, this can change in a moment's notice. So it's a constant daily recheck and refresh of those rates to see if they're hitting what we believe to be kind of that 2.5 to 3 rate cuts for the year.

  • And I'm a little more bullish too on that, too. So it's just a constant refresh and remodel of our models and when we're going to layer in additional swaps for the year to layer in behind the ones that are burning off here in Q3, Q4 this year.

  • Operator

  • Buck Horne, Raymond James.

  • Buck Horne - Analyst

  • Just wondering if you could give us any updates on either January and/or February trends since quarter end in terms of new renewal, blended lease rates, just occupancy? Any additional color on how early spring leasing has gone?

  • Matthew Mcgraner - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer

  • Buck, it's Matt. The January new leases were down 7%. Renewals were 1.6% for a blended minus 2.6% or 2.7% or $40 trade out. February is better and getting better and firming. The new leases were down 5.7%, and renewals were up a positive 1.7% for a blended negative 1.8% and again, we're seeing pretty positive trends on the renewal side, too, so on the trend.

  • Buck Horne - Analyst

  • Got you. Got you. Appreciate the color there. And then I think secondly, my other question was on CapEx and maybe potential CapEx spending for the upcoming year. It looks like the trend in both kind of the recurring and nonrecurring maintenance CapEx number is still trending above normal or above trend line historically.

  • What were some of the key drivers for that this year? And then how are you thinking about total CapEx spending for this coming year?

  • Matthew Mcgraner - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. On the maintenance side, I'll kick that to Bonner. But some of the outsized things that we're doing are the bulk Wi-Fi on the resident amenity side. which again has a direct offset. So that's kind of elevated the numbers. But again, the net effect of that is minimal on the on the income statement. Bonner, do you have anything to add on the maintenance side?

  • Bonner McDermett - Vice President, Asset Management

  • Yes. So our 2026 outlook and relative to '25, you see 2025, we had a little bit of a pickup in interior rehab spending. We had less of the exterior and common area this year post refinancing the portfolio, that $2.2 million in 2024, there was some more major projects there. So I think outside the Sedona acquisition, there is about $1 million of exterior work to do there. The capitalized rehab should be pretty stable year-over-year.

  • And I think that same for the capitalized maintenance, the recurring and nonrecurring, we're certainly looking to control those expenses. I understand that's roughly $30 million for the full year 2025. I think that we've seen some price easing. We're certainly being thoughtful about that as a team.

  • And as Matt has mentioned, we kind of have a strategic approach here where pricing power is going to dictate the volume of renovation output for the year. So if we can get healthy trade-outs that justify the spend, we'll see a little bit higher spend probably more in line with 2025. But if we're not getting to the trade-offs that we need, the ROIs that we want, we may look to skinny that down a bit.

  • Operator

  • Michael Lewis, Truist Securities.

  • Michael Lewis - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe this question kind of logically follows after talking about CapEx. When we subtract CapEx from your AFFO calc, it looks like the dividend isn't covered. I know you recently raised the dividend. This is always a tough -- I realize it's a Board decision. It's a hard question to answer.

  • But as you look forward to '26, I mean, do you think the dividend is covered by cash flow? And maybe just kind of remind us of what the dividend policy is?

  • Matthew Mcgraner - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. The dividend is covered by cash flow and its target ratio of 65% to 75% of core FFO.

  • Michael Lewis - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. And then I wanted to ask, you gave a lot of great data about supply and demand really detailed. The occupancy for 4Q was a little lower than we expected. I was wondering if it was lower than you expected and how you're kind of managing pricing versus occupancy right now where we are before we kind of get to that inflection whenever it comes?

  • Matthew Mcgraner - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes, it's a great question, Michael. We -- it is lower than we expected, but it was somewhat intentional. So concession utilization was increased over the fourth quarter and into January, it's abating somewhat in February. But we're reluctant to utilize more than a month of concessions on -- particularly when we believe pricing power will significantly increase over the year. Also didn't want to look to lock in a negative 12-month earn in and cannibalize what we believe is an inflection year.

  • We truly believe that on a deal-by-deal basis, largely for the vast majority of our portfolio and not jumping up and down, happy with 92.7%. But the good news is our first quarter guidance is at 93%. So I think we're on track to hit that. And hopefully, we'll capture some of this inflection.

  • Operator

  • Linda Tsai, Jefferies.

  • Linda Tsai - Analyst

  • In terms of your comment on the senior renter population doubling by 2030 and that you're seeing sizable signs of this trend in your markets. Can you delve into this comment more? And then would you start to amenitize your properties any differently based on an aging population?

  • Matthew Mcgraner - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes. Again, great question. We're seeing it because our average age is picking up, and we're just getting anecdotally from the sites, especially in the Sun Belt particularly in Florida for resident amenities that cater more to the senior housing population. It's something that we've I guess, taken notice of as Welltower and the others catch a really good bid and believe in this demographic backstop, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we do believe this trend. We think AI is going to be positive for GDP growth ultimately and have people when they live longer and make more money, they want to invest in their health and entertainment.

  • And so we are actively looking to resource our portfolio designed to cater to health and wellness and entertainment. And I think that those things will produce a wider demand funnel than what we've historically been used to and catering to blue collars. And so there's no reason in our portfolio why we can't attract in Richardson Texas, a suburb well-located suburb outside of Dallas, some empty nesters that want to be closer to their kids, that go to SMU, for example. So I think that, that trend will continue particularly in the Sunbelt, particularly in our markets and just follow the same net migration trends as we've seen over the last 5 years.

  • Linda Tsai - Analyst

  • Are you seeing new renter income from the older population increasing?

  • Matthew Mcgraner - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes, indeed. And that's adding to both our age and our average household demographics. When we started this company 11, 12 years ago, our average renter was 28 years old and made $60,000 a year. So we're increasingly catering, I think, to a purpose-driven renter and it makes sense. The aging population, they want less yard, they want more amenities, they don't want to deal with maintenance themselves, and they want to travel. So we like that trend. We're going to play into it. And I think we have the portfolio to take advantage of it.

  • Linda Tsai - Analyst

  • And then just one guidance question. It doesn't seem like your guidance incorporates buybacks. Are you still considering buybacks in '26?

  • Matthew Mcgraner - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes, we are. We'll always consider them. I think that we -- the Sedona deal was important because we like the ability to take that cap rate from a 5.7 going into a 7.5, and that was a one-off opportunity. And those opportunities will always do. But in the meantime, I think if we do sit at a stock price sub-30 and a 6.6 implied cap rate and we stay here for a while, I think you'll see us buy back some stock. That being said, I mean, I really do believe that this year is the year that we will inflect, and I think stock prices will follow that upwards in the second half of the year.

  • Operator

  • That concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to management team for closing remarks.

  • Matthew Mcgraner - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer

  • Thank you for all your time this morning. I appreciate everyone's again, time and attention and look forward to speaking to you next quarter.

  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.